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#沃勒：August inflation determines whether there will be a rate hike in September
$BTC $ETH From leading indicators, ADP small nonfarm payrolls are only 38,000, and multiple employment data such as service sector employment and initial jobless claims have collectively weakened. The signal of cooling employment is very clear. The market has already priced in the expectation of "weaker nonfarm payrolls and the Fed pausing rate hikes." Major coins have already experienced an upward trend before the news. Buying the expectation and selling the fact is the biggest trap tonight.
$ETH This means: even if the nonfarm data is positive, it is easy to see "once the data is released, bulls cash out and prices surge then fall back"; conversely, if nonfarm payrolls significantly exceed expectations, bears will face a definite market correction.
Two or three scenario scripts, with the latest long-short probabilities (updated version)
Scenario 1: Nonfarm < 45,000 (significantly below expectations) | Probability 50%
Conditions: New employment is significantly below the expected threshold of 56,000, unemployment rate ≥ 4.1%, wage growth slows.
Macroeconomic implication: Employment market confirmed to be cooling, September Fed rate hike expectations significantly cool down, theoretically favorable for the crypto market.
Market risk point: Expectations have been priced in advance, very likely to see an initial rally followed by a plunge, meaning positive news is realized and bulls take profits. Do not chase longs just because the data is weak.
Scenario 2: Nonfarm 45,000–70,000 (within expected range, neutral) | Probability 25%
Conditions: Data is close to market expectations, no clear directional signal.
Market trend: Typical wide-range oscillation with two-way spikes to shake out positions. After the news, there will be an initial surge, then a reversal downward, cutting stops on both sides; the market will leave the main suspense for next week's CPI inflation data, with no one-sided big move tonight.
Scenario 3: Nonfarm > 70,000 (employment stronger than expected) | Probability 25%
Conditions: New employment significantly exceeds expectations, labor market resilience surpasses market imagination.
Macroeconomic implication: Market pricing for restarting September rate hikes, strengthening USD and US Treasury yields, risk assets under pressure, cryptocurrencies enter a correction phase.$UNI USDT is gaining momentum at 6.282, currently up 0.62%. The move is smaller, but buyers are still maintaining positive pressure. If UNI breaks higher with stronger volume, momentum could accelerate quickly. Traders are watching for confirmation because the next push may decide whether this move develops into something much bigger.
#BOJHikeOddsRise #BOJHikeOddsRise #LSETokenizesUKStocks U.S. Treasury yields fluctuate at high levels as the market awaits employment data to find the Federal Reserve's next signal
After a week of intense volatility, the U.S. Treasury market has finally calmed down a bit, but investors remain on edge.
On September 4, U.S. Treasury yields were basically stable on Friday, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 4.76%, though it has risen about 5 basis points over the past five trading days.
The market is now focused on one key data point—the employment report.
This data could determine whether the Federal Reserve will continue to maintain high interest rates or start signaling rate cuts.
Looking back at this week, the Treasury market has been on a "roller coaster."
At the beginning of the week, influenced by rising energy prices and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Powell, the 10-year Treasury yield surged to nearly a three-year high.
In simple terms, the market worries that:
Inflation may heat up again, and the pace of Fed rate cuts may slow down.
But by Thursday, Fed Governor Waller sent a different signal, suggesting inflationary pressures might be easing, which boosted bond market sentiment, pushed Treasury prices up, and yields began to fall.
This reflects a problem:
The current Federal Reserve is easier to understand than before but increasingly harder to predict.
Florian Ielpo, Head of Macro at investment firm Lombard Odier, said that uncertainty in monetary policy is becoming a major source of market volatility.
For the crypto market, changes in U.S. Treasury yields have always been an important indicator.Why does the A-share market always open high and then fall to trap investors, even when overseas markets surge?
Today, the A-share market was again disappointing. While overseas markets were thriving, the A-shares surged then crashed, with the three major indices all closing lower. More stocks fell than rose, and trading volume surged past 2 trillion, indicating intense profit-taking.
The only bright spot was the pork and livestock sector, which defied the trend with a wave of limit-up gains due to the combined effects of the El Niño extreme weather forecast and recovering pork prices. The tech and AI sectors were heavily hit, playing out an ironic scene of "pigs eating technology."
The reasons for the plunge are clear:
Nonfarm payroll data is approaching
The US nonfarm payroll data will be released tonight. Whether it overheats or cools down will cause sharp fluctuations in the Fed's rate cut policy. Domestic institutions, lacking a sense of security, chose to preemptively sell off to hedge risks.
Rumors and disturbances
Sudden rumors on foreign websites about Trump's death disturbed market sentiment, coupled with domestic semiconductor short-selling rumors, which precisely hit the already fragile high-tech stocks.
Fragile capital structure
The overseas surge raised opening expectations, which instead created an excellent opportunity for profit-taking and liquidity release by onshore holders.
This trend exposes the market's core problem:
Lack of sustained incremental buying capital, relying purely on stock redistribution and short-term high sell/low buy tactics.
Forecast for the near future
In the short term, the market will maintain a consolidation bottom above 3900 points. After high-tech stocks are squeezed out, the market will seek a new bottom next week.
As long as the nonfarm data does not bring major negative news, the late-session bottom-fishing funds indicate support remains below. In terms of operations, don't rush to blindly bottom-fish; wait for high-level chips to clear and the trend to stabilize before seeking low-entry opportunities.
DYOR$CASHCAT USDT
Solid volume on the dump. Approaching potential demand zone for a quick long scalp.
EP: 0.270 – 0.280
TP1: 0.300
TP2: 0.320
SL: 0.255
$BTC
#WallerEyesAugCPI #LSETokenizesUKStocks #BTCGoldRatioHigh ETH Evening Analysis
Tonight at 20:30, the non-farm payroll data will be released, marking an important short-term macroeconomic event that deserves close attention.
If the non-farm data is favorable to risk assets, ETH could effectively break through 2560, with the first target near 2630; if BTC simultaneously holds above and breaks through 82000, market sentiment will further open up, and ETH is expected to test 2700.
Reverse observation level: If the price effectively falls below 2465, this rebound phase will be declared over, and the market may enter a new round of range consolidation.
Data-driven market volatility is intense; do not bet on direction prematurely. Wait for signal confirmation before considering positioning, and strictly manage position size and stop-loss settings. BSC chain meme coins continue to strengthen: MarsCoin market cap approaches $200 million, Max hits new high of $24 million. On September 4, the BSC chain meme coin market heated up significantly: driven by the launch of Binance spot, MarsCoin's market cap is approaching $200 million, currently quoted at $192 million, with a 24-hour increase of 70%; The meme coin Max, modeled after the Giggle mascot, surpassed $24 million in market cap, hitting a new all-time high, currently at $20.9 million, with a 24-hour increase of 61%. The background to this round of BSC chain meme coin rally is that the Robinhood chain went viral across the internet that day, driving meme speculative sentiment to spread to other public chains, with BSC chain quickly taking over. The core catalyst for MarsCoin's surge came from the listing of Binance spot. The liquidity inflow from leading exchanges is usually the most direct driver for short-term price increases in small and mid-cap tokens. A 70% increase in 24 hours and a market cap of $192 million indicate high capital attention. Another meme coin, Max, modeled after the Giggle mascot and a community token derived from Binance's ecosystem cultural symbol, quickly surpassed $24 million in market cap, hitting a record high with a 61% increase in 24 hours, indicating that the influx of funds driven by community narratives continues. The significance of this trend lies in the fact that BSC, as Binance's core public blockchain, has on-chain meme activity that serves as an important window to observe speculative sentiment and capital risk appetite in the crypto market: when mainstream assets lack direction$UP USDT
Steady decline, now testing support. Short-term bounce likely if it holds.
EP: 0.470 – 0.485
TP1: 0.510
TP2: 0.540
SL: 0.4#WallerEyesAugCPI #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC #LSETokenizesUKStocks #沃勒：August inflation will determine whether there is a rate hike in September
Non-farm payrolls decide life or death! BTC at the 80,000 mark—is this a real breakout or a fake pump-and-dump?
Whether BTC can firmly hold the 80,000 level this round will basically be decided by tonight's non-farm payroll data.
Currently, the market expects about 56,000 new jobs added in August, a slight recovery compared to July's negative growth.
Reviewing the market, BTC has recently been stuck oscillating around 81,000. Last night's strong rebound has a very clear core logic: Federal Reserve officials released dovish remarks, US Treasury yields fell, market rate hike expectations cooled, directly driving a recovery rally in the crypto space.
But this rise is not a full-scale capital inflow; it is more of a recovery driven by macro sentiment, so the high level heavily depends on tonight's data verification.
The market trend basically falls into three scenarios:
First: Employment data exceeds expectations and is strong.
US Treasury yields rebound, tightening expectations reignite, BTC at 80,000 will face direct pressure, and this rally is most likely a short-term fake breakout.
Second: Employment is mildly weak, consistent with a cooling trend.
Yields continue to decline, macro environment is loose, the 80,000 resistance level is expected to fully convert into support, and this bull run can be considered truly established.
Third: Employment data collapses significantly.
The market will immediately switch to recession panic, risk assets will collectively come under pressure, and the crypto space will instead face a new round of correction; worse data does not mean better for BTC.
So the most perfect BTC movement tonight: steady cooling employment and a soft economic landing.
At 20:30, the non-farm payrolls will be released, and the market will soon distinguish strength from weakness.
Tonight, either ride the trend for big profits or get shaken out in a volatile washout.
Guess what, will my position explode with profit or get shaken out tonight?
⚠️ The above is only my personal market analysis record and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile; investing carries risks, enter the market cautiously, and bear your own gains and losses.
$BTC
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
#OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 BTC has reclaimed 80,000, but bulls and bears are already in a heated argument with no consensus expectations.
Jiang Zhuoer directly liquidated at 82,000, reasoning that after only 13 days of consolidation, breaking through 83,000 to 84,000 is unrealistic. He believes the next likely move is a pullback to 70,000 to 72,000. Yi Lihua is a bit more moderate, treating 76,300 as support but also considering 86,000 the real resistance. Meanwhile, a whale is shouting "last chance to get on board, aiming for 100,000."
The capital side is even more divided. On one hand, a mysterious whale sold nearly 170,000 ETH in five days, cashing out over 400 million USD. On the other, Strive still holds up to 1.4 billion in buying power, vowing to keep accumulating BTC. Long-term funds are buying, short-term funds are exiting, and neither side convinces the other.
Regarding ETFs, the US has 174 crypto ETFs, with IBIT alone accounting for 61 billion, nearly 40% of the share. Institutional channels are becoming more mature, but funds are also more concentrated. At the same time, short-term trading is clearly heating up, with daily terminal volume breaking 1 billion, and risk appetite returning.
So now it’s not a simple bull vs. bear battle; long-term buying and short-term profit-taking are happening simultaneously. If BTC can hold volume and stabilize between 83,000 and 86,000, the 100,000 story can continue. If ETF momentum is insufficient, 70,000 to 72,000 will be the next stop. Don’t rush to take sides; let the price speak first.
$BTC $ETH $OKB: After consolidation, what really matters is not how much it rises, but whether it can break out with volume.
Current price is about $111.56, 24H +0.1%. OKB is still consolidating at a high level and has not yet accelerated the trend. The key change is that contract OI is about $28 million, down 1.31% in 24H, while the funding rate is only about +0.008%/8H, indicating the rise is not obviously driven by leveraged long positions, but rather looks like chip digestion.
More importantly, BTC has reclaimed $80,000, macro risk appetite has clearly warmed, and Waller's dovish stance has lowered the September rate hike expectation from about 63% to around 50%, making the overall environment relatively favorable for platform tokens like OKB.
My judgment: slightly bullish, hold for now, do not chase.
$110 is the first support, $105 is strong support; on the upside, first look at $115, after a volume breakout look at $120–125. What really needs caution is a drop below $105, along with continued OI decline and shrinking spot volume, which would indicate this consolidation is distribution and the logic turns directly bearish.Can ETH still increase 333 times?
Nick Tomaino, founder of 1confirmation, made a very bold prediction:
He believes the potential market size of ETH could reach over 100 trillion dollars.
Currently, ETH's market cap is about 300 billion dollars,
which means the theoretical upside is more than 333 times.
Of course, everyone understands how exaggerated this number is.
But what’s truly worth considering is:
In the future, will ETH be just a "public chain token," or will it become a global store of value asset?
If it’s the latter, the current valuation might indeed be just the starting point. 🚨 Is $CORE actually doomed—or is the market overreacting?
While other coins are pumping, $CORE has dropped back to levels we saw last week. So, what’s really going on?
First, don’t panic—your coins haven’t been stolen. The issue is that some parties responsible for validating and maintaining the chain received more rewards than they were supposed to. That resulted in extra $CORE being minted.
#DailyOrbit $APR USDT
Oversold after sharp -18% dump. RSI deeply oversold on lower TFs, high volume capitulation. Watching for bounce.
EP: 0.2150 – 0.2200
TP1: 0.2350
TP2: 0.2550
SL: 0.2050
$BTC
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC $CP USDT
Heavy sell-off, trading near recent lows. Momentum exhausted short-term, possible relief bounce.
EP: 0.0320 – 0.0335
TP1: 0.0365
TP2: 0.0390
SL: 0.0305
$BTC
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC A very noteworthy phenomenon has emerged: BTC remains oscillating at high levels, but funds are beginning to spread into mainstream ecosystems like ETH, SOL, SUI, OKB, etc. This often indicates the market is entering a new rotation phase. Many people think a bull market means daily surges, but in reality, major rallies often end in shakeouts during consolidation. The main force uses sideways to wear down retail investors' patience, then continues to rally after everyone exits. Next, I will focus on four directions: whether BTC continues to hold high levels will determine overall market sentiment and whether ETH can continue to rise with increased volume Decide whether the altcoin season will fully begin. SUI ecosystem activity continues to rise, on-chain capital inflows are worth watching. OKB's platform ecosystem is continuously developing. If trading activity keeps increasing, platform tokens will still have independent opportunities. The most important thing now is not to predict the top every day, but to manage positions. Hold strong assets patiently, adjust weak assets in time, avoid blindly chasing highs, and don't panic sell just because of a single pullback. I believe the opportunities in this round of market are not over yet. Those who truly make money often position themselves early when market divergences occur, rather than rushing in when everyone is bullish. What do you think? Which one has the best chance to lead the rise next: BTC, ETH, SUI, or OKB? Feel free to discuss in the comments #BTC #ETH #SUI #OKB #SOL #欧意星球 #币圈 #牛市 #加密货币 #山寨季Tonight's non-farm payrolls basically decide whether $BTC can truly hold above 80,000 this time or if it will fake another breakout.
The market expects about 56,000 new jobs added in August, slightly better than July's -23,000. BTC is currently stuck near 81,000. It bounced last night mainly because the Fed sent some dovish signals, US Treasury yields fell, and rate hike expectations cooled down.
So there are three possible scenarios tonight:
Data too hot, yields rise again, 80,000 keeps pressing down, most likely no breakout.
Data moderate or weak, yields continue to fall, BTC then has a chance to turn resistance into support.
But if employment collapses too badly, don’t celebrate too early. The market will start to panic about a recession, and risk assets will be hit as well.
The most comfortable scenario is: employment cools down gradually, the economy doesn’t collapse, and BTC takes advantage to hold steady.
At 20:30 tonight, it’s either a big explosion or big profits. Where do you think my position will go?
⚠️ The above is just my personal market view, not investment advice. Profit and loss are your own responsibility. The crypto market is risky, trade cautiously. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #HOOD收涨创年内新高，链上收入居公链第一 $ZEC $ARB Yesterday, the expectation of a rate cut decreased, and the entire market was celebrating wildly. So why did gold remain silent and even decline today? Is the correlation between BTC and gold drifting further apart?
First, looking at the price, $XAUT is currently around 4457.9 USDT. Although it has rebounded significantly from around 4280 a few days ago, it is still noticeably below the previous high of 4679.8. Gold's performance today is indeed not as eye-catching as BTC.
#WallerEyesAugCPI $AMC USDT
Strong downside pressure. Oversold conditions building, bounce setup if buyers step in.
EP: 2.65 – 2.75
TP1: 2.95
P2: 3.15
SL: 2.50
$BTC
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC Bitcoin price trend is similar to gold price, currently has reached a resistance level. The price needs to break through this resistance to start an upward trend. $BTC #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
The leader has something to say
After BTC surged to 81,000 and then faced pressure to fall back, the leader placed two short orders at 81,000 today, the timing was right.
Jiang Zhuoer cleared his position at 82,050, and Yi Lihua is looking at 86,000. Both sides are betting on their own positions. After BTC stood above 80,000, the BTC/gold ratio hit a new high since January, and sell orders are accumulating in the 80,000 to 82,500 range. Both short orders were made based on this logic, a short-term rhythm.
The long position logic remains unchanged. With easing expectations of interest rate hikes and falling US Treasury yields, funds are flowing back into risk assets. But heavy selling pressure above 80,000 means shorting does not equal expecting a reversal; it’s about waiting for a better entry point.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
The above analysis is time-sensitive, stop losses must be set on positions, good luck.Single Coin Capital Movement Ranking
For $DASH, this wave should not only focus on the price; the key is whether spot positions are being taken and whether contracts are being increased.
Price fell by -0.42%, open interest decreased by -0.45%, the main characteristic being position withdrawal. Market buy side accounts for 39.0%, if the price rebounds but positions do not rise, it is still just a recovery after exit.#Nonfarm Data Divergence Before Release, September Rate Hike Expectations Heat Up
Data Time: Tonight 20:30, August Nonfarm Payrolls Expected Increase 56,000, Previous -23,000, Unemployment Rate Expected 4.1%
I. Three Scenarios + Market Probability (Mainstream Coins BTC/ETH)
1. Scenario A: Nonfarm < 50,000 (Data Weaker Than Expected) | Probability ≈ 60%
ADP small nonfarm has already weakened (only 38,000), combined with continuous downward revisions in employment data over the past two months, market baseline expectations lean toward cooling employment.
→ Positive for risk assets, cryptocurrencies tend to be bullish;
However ⚠️ the pre-market has already risen in advance, there is a trap of buying the expectation and selling the fact with a sharp pullback.
2. Scenario B: Nonfarm 50,000-70,000 (Meets Expectations, Neutral) | Probability ≈ 20%
Data falls within the expected range, no clear signals.
→ Market likely to experience wide fluctuations, with back-and-forth spikes, either surging then dropping, or dropping then pulling back, a shakeout market with bulls and bears cutting each other.
3. Scenario C: Nonfarm > 80,000 (Employment Stronger Than Expected) | Probability ≈ 20%
Employment resilience exceeds expectations, September rate hike expectations heat up, US dollar strengthens.
→ Negative for crypto, triggering a wave of corrective decline.
Overall Bull-Bear Ratio (Pre-Nonfarm Release Prediction)
Bulls 6 : Bears 4
Market sentiment is generally bullish, but a large portion of the 60% bulls have already taken profits early, so the actual positive outcome may not lead to a straight rally, with a high possibility of repeated fluctuations. Most “traders” missed out on this round of Bitcoin's rebound. When BTC dropped to 76,000 USD, they suggested waiting for 75,000 USD. In reality, Bitcoin successfully held at 76,600 USD and broke through 79,000 USD, while still exploring higher highs. However, it is currently facing resistance near the 82,500 USD level. Garrett Jin also pointed out that these traders are now recommending taking profits at 85,000 USD, jokingly saying, “I doubt they are really trading.” #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC The biggest signal in the crypto world today is not BTC hitting a new high, but that more and more funds are starting to flow from BTC to mainstream ecosystems like ETH, SOL, SUI, OKB, etc. Altcoin rotation is accelerating. Many people are still waiting for a pullback, but the market rises a little every day. By the time they really jump in, it’s often already at a stage high. This is the most common mistake in a bull market. Recently, I have been observing three signals: First, BTC is consolidating at a high level without falling, indicating that the main players have not sold off but are rotating and accumulating. Second, ETH continues to strengthen, and funds are starting to allocate to ecosystem projects. The heat around DeFi, AI, and RWA on-chain assets is warming up again. Third, OKB remains steady. Platform tokens often have independent rallies in a bull market. Once trading volume continues to expand, the value of the platform ecosystem will be further reflected. The most important thing in the market now is not guessing the top but managing positions well. Keep holding strong coins, switch out weak ones in time, don’t chase with full positions, and don’t easily exit truly core assets. Next, I will focus on whether BTC can continue to hold the new high, whether ETH can lead a comprehensive altcoin catch-up, and whether SUI, SOL, and OKB have new breakthrough opportunities. The bull market never waits for everyone to be ready. The real winners are those who lay out their plans early when the market still has divergences. Let’s discuss in the comments: which coin do you currently favor the most? #BTC #ETH #OKB #SUI #SOL #欧意 #crypto #bullmarket #cryptocurrency #digitalcurrencyDon't rush to trade on non-farm payroll night; first check how the actual value compares to the 55,000 expectation, then see if the unemployment rate breaks 4.2, and only then consider your own position. The 5-minute spikes right after the data release are basically just giving professional traders commission fees.US stock market opens with risk appetite warming, the three major indices open higher and fluctuate, with the Nasdaq performing best. After the non-farm payroll data release, the market continues to play with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, US Treasury yields slightly retreat, the US dollar index weakens, and technology stocks and crypto-related sectors strengthen in sync.
At the index level, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 open slightly higher, with the Nasdaq leading the gains. Nvidia remains strong, supported by the product logic of the RTX Spark launching in October. Microsoft, Meta, Google, and other AI heavyweights collectively rise, the AI hardware theme continues to heat up, though there is internal differentiation within the sector.
Crypto concept stocks follow the cryptocurrency market upward, with Strategy and Coinbase opening higher. Japanese listed company Remixpoint has liquidated mainstream coins such as ETH and SOL, retaining only Bitcoin holdings, reinforcing the narrative of institutional priority allocation to BTC, with sentiment transmitting to US crypto stocks.
On the macro front, the 10-year US Treasury yield slightly declines but remains at a high level overall, so constraints on high-valuation assets have not disappeared. The weakening dollar drives a rebound in precious metals, while crude oil remains at a high level with fluctuations due to geopolitical factors. On the news side, Polymarket's massive financing boosts the heat of prediction markets; Anthropic fixes model faults, relieving short-term event risks in the AI sector.
Market focus is on the September FOMC meeting, with on-site funds mainly playing expectations, showing restrained aggression without a volume-driven one-sided rally. The current stage is an emotional recovery after the non-farm payroll release and does not represent a complete trend reversal. The long-end US Treasury yield remains the core anchor for various assets.🔥 $ZEC is exploding — but momentum isn’t the same as a clean setup.
The move appears fueled by a short squeeze + renewed privacy narrative, while retail participation still looks limited.
Price is already stretched, and selling pressure is starting to show near the highs.
With NFP ahead, volatility could flip the script fast.
Chasing longs = event risk.
Shorting = fighting strong momentum#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC Tonight at 20:30, the US August non-farm payroll data will be released, the last key employment report before the September Federal Reserve meeting. The market expects new jobs to increase by 56,000, unemployment rate at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings year-on-year up 3.0%.
Strong data (new jobs >100,000): rate hike expectations heat up, the US dollar strengthens, US tech stocks come under pressure, and Bitcoin may pull back to test the $70,000 support.
Data meets expectations (new jobs between 30,000 and 70,000): the market awaits next week's CPI, US stocks show limited volatility, and Bitcoin remains range-bound between 80,000 and 83,000.
Weak data (new jobs <30,000): rate cut expectations rise, the US dollar weakens, benefiting US stocks and Bitcoin. BTC is expected to break through 83,000 and push toward 87,600 or even $100,000. However, if the unemployment rate surges above 4.2%, it may trigger stagflation concerns, which would be bearish.
Trading reminder: volatility is most intense 30 minutes before and after the data release, often with "spike" moves. Currently, BTC is around $81,000, with ETFs seeing net inflows exceeding $800 million for three consecutive weeks providing bottom support, but beware of the risk of "buying the rumor, selling the fact" pullbacks.
Core logic: weak data favors risk assets, strong data is bearish, but the real policy turning point depends on next week's CPI.9.4 Gold Evening Review
The non-farm payroll data release is approaching, and gold is currently fluctuating narrowly around 4468. The hourly chart still shows an overall bullish trend, but the MACD indicator continues to decline, and upward momentum is weakening; the 30-minute chart maintains a high-level consolidation with intensified long-short battles. The market remains cautious, waiting for the non-farm data to guide the direction.
Key Levels
Resistance above: 4490-4510
Support below: 4450-4430
Trading Strategy
With the non-farm data about to be released, the market may experience sharp volatility at any time. Do not preemptively bet on direction; prioritize observation and wait for the data to be released.
If price breaks above and holds above the 4490-4510 resistance, consider short positions targeting 4450-4430.
Non-farm night sessions are highly volatile; strictly control position sizes, set stop losses, avoid chasing highs or selling lows, and wait for clear market signals before taking action. $XAU 🚨 Bitcoin ETF demand just made a statement.
U.S. spot $BTC ETFs reportedly saw $731M in inflows their biggest single day since January.
BTC is back above $80K.
Institutional demand is heating up again.
Now the question is whether price can follow.
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
The BTC to gold ratio has reached 18.17, hitting a new high since January this year. One BTC can now be exchanged for over 18 ounces of gold. Both BTC and gold are rising together, a scenario rarer than Pharaoh's pyramids.
The core issue is this—US debt has surpassed 40 trillion, and except for Switzerland, all major developed economies have debt-to-GDP ratios exceeding 100%. Besent directly stated at the G20 that "the world is drowning in debt."
André Dragosch, Head of European Research at Bitwise, pointed out that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has climbed to a six-year high. After the US Treasury announced expanded debt buybacks, the dollar weakened, and investors bought both gold and BTC to hedge against currency depreciation. The correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq has dropped to a one-year low, shifting BTC from a "high-beta tech stock" to a "macro hedge asset."
Can this ratio continue? Dragosch believes that if this correlation persists, Bitcoin's positioning over the next fifteen years could be entirely different. But Pharaoh reminds you—an increasing ratio might mean BTC is truly competing with gold, or it could just be higher volatility amplifying the same narrative faster. BTC rises fast but falls fast too. As long as the "debt depreciation" narrative remains, both gold and BTC have a role to play. Pharaoh's advice remains the same: good trades are made by waiting; wait for a pullback and stabilization before acting—it's a hundred times safer than chasing highs. $ETH $BTC $ZEC #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ Latest news from the US on Bitcoin: Optimistic expectations are high, but risks still loom overhead
The core driver of this round of Bitcoin rebound comes entirely from the US macro environment. The Federal Reserve's dovish stance and gradual regulatory normalization have boosted market sentiment, leading to a clear rebound in Bitcoin.
Many people blindly assume a bull market has started just because the market is warming up, but all current gains are based on premature expectations and have not yet been realized.
The current key positives are very clear: the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations for September have cooled, the US dollar is weakening, and funds are flowing back into risk assets; US crypto regulation is shifting from suppression to normalization, continuously strengthening the bottom support; economic data is weak, the market is betting on a liquidity turning point, and the long-term market logic remains solid.
However, short-term risks cannot be ignored.
The current market is entirely betting on favorable CPI data. If inflation rebounds and the Federal Reserve turns hawkish again, this rebound could collapse at any time. Additionally, September has historically been a weak and volatile month, with heavy trapped positions and profit-taking pressure in the 83000–86000 range, severely limiting upside space.
At present, the market is only repairing existing funds; ETF funds are repeatedly flowing in and out without sustained new inflows. The market warming has fueled leveraged sentiment, and unanimous bullishness often leads to shakeouts and spikes.
Overall summary: The long-term bottom is solid, but there is absolutely no one-sided bull market in the short term.
The best strategy at this stage: do not chase highs, do not stubbornly hold, keep light positions and follow the trend, focusing on swing trading. Optimism can be referenced but never heavily relied upon. Before data is realized, oscillation and tug-of-war will be the main rhythm this month. Controlling positions and steady trading to profit on both sides is the most stable trading approach. BTC traded this week in the range of approximately $76,700-$81,500, encountering resistance twice in the $81,000-$86,000 supply zone. Currently, futures open interest is near a five-month low, crypto asset margin OI accounts for only about 11%, and the annualized funding rate is below 10%, indicating no significant leveraged long crowding in this rally. Meanwhile, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $731 million on September 3, but BTC did not close higher that day. QCP believes this indicates spot selling pressure remains near $81,000. On the macro front, after Jackson Hole, the market's probability of a September rate hike briefly rose from about 35% to 70%, then fell back to around 45%-50% due to weaker employment data and comments from Waller. The US August nonfarm payrolls, to be released tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, will be the next key variable, while the US Treasury auctions from September 8-11, expanded long-term Treasury repos, and CPI data will further influence long-end yields and BTC direction. QCP states that in the next two weeks, a more important question for BTC may not be the federal funds rate itself, but whether the 30-year Treasury yield can remain below the August highs. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC 9.4 Evening Market Observation
After a surge in the evening, the price faced pressure and fell back, fluctuating back and forth with intense battles between bulls and bears.
The short-term rhythm switches quickly; after an upward push, a pullback is likely. Do not blindly follow just because of a rise.
Market volatility has increased, so frequent trading is not advisable. Try to wait for a clear position before making decisions.
Regardless of how the market fluctuates, risk protection should always be the top priority. Objectively and calmly assess every wave.
Trading Suggestions:
Long: 4440-4460, stop loss at 4430, target 4480, breakout at 4520
Short: 4480-4500, stop loss at 4510, target 4460, breakout at 4410
#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 The evening session maintained a high-level oscillation pattern, with BTC consolidating previous gains, while mainstream coins like ETH and SOL showed divergence. Influenced by the news that Japanese listed company Remixpoint liquidated ETH, SOL, and XRP holdings, retaining only Bitcoin positions, the market exhibited a clear asset stratification narrative. Some funds favored Bitcoin, altcoins came under pressure, and sector rotation slowed down.
On the news front, Remixpoint's portfolio adjustment realized profits from altcoins, recovering 878.8 million in funds. The capital did not continue to increase BTC positions but was invested in energy storage real businesses, representing asset rebalancing by the listed company rather than a complete bearish stance on altcoins. However, this objectively reinforced the market perception of BTC as an institutional base holding. Meanwhile, Jiang Zhuoer declared he would no longer trade ETH perpetual contracts, once again warning of contract leverage risks; Polymarket secured massive financing, indicating sustained enthusiasm in the prediction market sector.
From a macro perspective, after the release of non-farm payroll data, the market continued to speculate on the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace. The US dollar and US Treasury yields fluctuated repeatedly, continuously suppressing the crypto market's upward breakout potential. Large capital's offensive willingness contracted, focusing more on turnover and portfolio adjustments. The market has not entered a new acceleration phase; oscillation and consolidation have become the main features. The short squeeze in the futures market has faded, with intensified long-short battles and increased risk of price spikes.
On the trading side, the major bullish trend remains intact but short-term momentum has weakened, making it unsuitable to chase highs. The Remixpoint event will exacerbate coin differentiation, further strengthening BTC consensus, while mainstream altcoins are likely to face capital diversion.83,000 marks a critical turning point! $BTC is about to break out with volume, or is it the bulls' last trap?
$BTC returns to $80,000, but the market has no consensus expectation.
Jiang Zhuoer cleared his position at $82,050, believing that the short 13-day consolidation is insufficient to break through $83,000 to $84,000, and the next step might be a pullback to $70,000 to $72,000.
Yi Lihua sees $76,300 as support but also believes $86,000 is the real resistance level.
Meanwhile, the whale "Set 10 big targets first" posted on platform X that the "last chance to get on board points to $100,000."
The funding situation is also contradictory.
A mysterious whale sold 167,900 ETH in 5 days, cashing out about $408 million.
Strive holds up to $1.4 billion in potential buying power and plans to continue accumulating BTC.
The US already has 174 crypto ETFs, with IBIT managing about $61 billion, accounting for 38%. Institutional channels are becoming more mature, but funds are also more concentrated.
Trading terminal daily volume broke $1 billion, with Robinhood Chain suddenly contributing over 90% of GMGN trading volume, indicating risk appetite is recovering but mainly flowing into short-term trades.
Right now, it’s not a simple bull vs. bear battle but a simultaneous occurrence of long-term buying and short-term profit-taking.
If BTC breaks and holds $83,000 to $86,000 with volume, $100,000 might not be far away.
If ETF funds weaken later, $70,000 to $75,000 could be the next test. In the afternoon, General Lin told the brothers in advance that $ZEC has strongly broken above 1000, hitting a new high!
The leader has already created space first, the sector's heat continues to rise, and funds are starting to spread to the same track. The rotation opportunities in the privacy sector are gradually opening up!
$DASH is the most obvious representative, followed by key attention on: ZEN, XMR!
ZEC and DASH have already set the example; the leader is responsible for opening the way. Whether other coins can take over depends on how funds rotate next! #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 All driven by overseas macro factors and external market linkage, with three clear and distinct logics:
First, the Fed's rate hike expectations cool down. Fed officials have signaled dovishness, indicating that if inflation continues to decline, rate hikes will be paused, directly pushing down U.S. Treasury yields and weakening the dollar, significantly easing valuation pressure on risk assets and providing a loose liquidity environment for the crypto sector.
Second, a broad rebound in crypto assets. Overnight, Bitcoin broke through $82,000, reaching a new high since May, with a daily maximum increase of over 6%; Ethereum and BNB surged simultaneously, multiple niche tokens rallied collectively, and overall sector sentiment was fully restored.
Third, strong linkage with U.S. tech stocks. Leading overseas crypto companies surged collectively, with Strategy soaring 17.56%, Circle rising over 16%, Coinbase up more than 10%, and the external market rally directly lifted valuation expectations for the digital currency sector in the A-share market.
Personal interpretation: Digital currency is a typical "liquidity-sensitive sector," with price movements highly tied to dollar liquidity expectations. The previous sector adjustment was essentially due to rate hike expectations suppression; this rebound marks a marginal turning point in trading liquidity rather than a simple oversold recovery, and the market has logical support.#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
This time, the tide is really turning!
Interest rate hikes can no longer be suppressed!
Actually, whether to raise rates in September doesn't hinge on tonight, but on next week's inflation data.
Waller's point is that if inflation continues to cool down, don't move interest rates yet; if inflation heats up again, then consider tightening further.
He did not promise a rate cut. Just "don't increase the pace for now." After hearing this, the market's confidence in a September rate hike dropped from 80% to about 50/50.
Hiring is indeed cooling off. A few months ago, some figures were still negative, but later they were revised downward.
Outside, it's expected that about 50,000 to 60,000 people will be hired tonight. But oil prices are still rising, and more goods are getting more expensive.
Fewer hires on one side, prices still high on the other, no one dares to bet on a single direction.
If hiring is very low, the market thinks a rate hike is even less likely, and Bitcoin might surge near 80,000.
If hiring is moderate, it will continue to fluctuate. If hiring is strong, rate hike expectations will rise again, and Bitcoin might drop.
Using positions to guess the outcome is a very risky move; it's better to wait for the numbers before acting!
Hiring is decreasing, prices are still high, and the top decision-makers are quite torn.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
#OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Earnings Report Watch｜AI Industry Chain Shows Divergence in Heat, Short-term Expectations and Long-term Narratives Are Pulling Apart
A recent batch of AI industry giants released earnings reports, providing a clear view of the current real state of the industry: hardware orders remain hot, software-side growth is accelerating, but some companies' short-term guidance falls short of market expectations, leading to market contention.
Dell raised its full-year revenue forecast and significantly increased its AI server business targets. Over the past twelve months, AI server orders have exceeded ¥130 billion, with ¥60.9 billion in new orders in a single quarter, and backlog orders waiting to be delivered reaching ¥95 billion, indicating continued demand for computing infrastructure.
Broadcom's quarterly earnings were very impressive, with revenue and profit nearly doubling year-over-year. Its AI semiconductor business surged 221% year-over-year and rose 54% quarter-over-quarter, with AI-related revenue accounting for more than half of total revenue. However, the issue lies in the next quarter's guidance, which projects Q4 revenue slightly below general market expectations, directly causing the stock sell-off after the earnings release. Nevertheless, the long-term narrative was fully reinforced during the conference call: the company raised its AI revenue target for this year and boldly predicted AI business would double in fiscal 2027 and double again in fiscal 2028. Leading companies like Google, OpenAI, and Meta continue to purchase custom chips from Broadcom.
On the other hand, Snowflake delivered an above-expectation performance, with revenue growth further accelerating for the third consecutive quarter. The company also raised its full-year revenue guidance, with after-hours trading surging over 20%, indicating strong demand in the AI software sector as well. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS — $HYPE (15m)
Market bias: BULLISH BIAS 🟢
🎯 trend continuation | Confidence 86/100
Price zones to watch: 87.026
Scenario invalidation level: 86.0997
Technical target 1: 88.1839
Technical target 2: 88.8786
Technical target 3: 89.8048
RSI14 57.3 | ADX14 18.3 | MACD +0.0555 | Vol 0.17x
A 15m close through SL invalidates the setup; the stop defines the risk boundary.
Educational analysis only—not financial advice.
#OKXOrbitTopicsThis is a 10x leveraged long position on ZEC, opened at a price of 1010.00, with a position size of 674,791.1 USD. Don't imagine it as a miraculous bottom-fishing trade.
Key data: Coin ZEC, leverage 10x, direction long, opening price 1010.00.
The profit potential of going long comes from price increases, but if the directional judgment is wrong, losses, drawdowns, and liquidation risks will all be amplified.
The material lacks current market price, profit and loss, margin, liquidation price, and stop-loss information, so it cannot be concluded whether this trade is profitable or not.
A large position size does not equal a correct direction; on-chain alerts are just information, not a notification of price increase, and certainly won't bear the risk for you.
The dumbest thing is not making a wrong call, but stubbornly holding on emotionally, refusing to admit losses, waiting for a rebound, and eventually turning the trade into a forced liquidation.
10x leverage is not bravery; it actively reduces your margin for error. If you want to capture upside gains, you must also accept the sharp downside.
Before opening a position, clearly define your stop-loss, maximum tolerable loss, and exit conditions. Don't wait for the candlestick to make decisions for you. Stop loss when necessary to preserve your capital.Everyone was originally focused on the Federal Reserve possibly cutting rates in September, but the players on Polymarket (where real money is staked on predictions) suddenly collectively changed their stance. As of September 4, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged has surged to 60%, a sharp 9% increase within 24 hours! Meanwhile, the previously favored 25 basis point rate cut has become the underdog, with its probability dropping to 42%.
You should know that Polymarket's data is often more authentic than institutional surveys because it involves gamblers' (or rather, prediction experts') hard-earned money. The probability jumping from 51% to 60% indicates that funds are aggressively hedging one possibility: the Fed still believes inflation isn't fully under control, or the labor market isn't bad enough yet to require urgent intervention.
Tonight at 8:30 PM Eastern Time (midnight Beijing time), the crucial non-farm payroll report will be released. The market median expectation is an addition of 56,000 jobs.
* If the data > 56,000: It's over. Powell will likely shrug and say, "See, employment is still okay, we'll keep watching." At that point, rate cut expectations will instantly die down, the dollar will rebound, and risk assets (BTC, tech stocks) will likely face a cold snap.
* If the data < 56,000: The market will start screaming that a recession is coming! Although rate cuts will be secure, the concern will shift from interest rates to whether there will still be money to spend.
* The current market situation is like the calm before the storm If judged by real-world standards, 90% of on-chain operations are suspected of "seriously disrupting traffic" 🚦
In reality, you transfer money or buy a coffee, done with a beep in 0.5 seconds.
But in some crypto networks:
1. First confirm if you are connected to the official RPC;
2. Pray the cross-chain bridge doesn’t get stuck halfway;
3. Stare at the burning high Gas fees and fall into deep thought, wondering if you’re bidding on some spaceship.
Technology should make life simpler, not force people to earn a master's degree in blockchain engineering.
ACO’s confidence lies in its obsession with a "low-friction experience":
Setting aside those mystifying gimmicks, compressing crypto socializing, asset flow, and daily interactions into a fast-responding closed loop.
Making sending messages as natural as Swap transactions is the only right way for public chains to achieve large-scale adoption.
What was the most frustrating on-chain lag you’ve ever experienced? Vent in the comments 👇
#ACO #User Experience #Blockchain Daily #Efficiency Revolution #Web3 Pain PointsI’m expecting a flash crash at some point in September — but from higher levels.
I don’t think we break below these prices. Quote me on it:
$BTC — $74K
$ZEC — $750
$ETH — $2,350
$SOL — $95
$HYPE — $73
A sharp shakeout may come, but these are the levels I’m backing as the floor.
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC On-chain activity is rising, making Arbitrum's revenue narrative a focal point again, but amid the noise, the most fundamental question that should be asked is this: revenue and profit have never been the same thing. The incremental transactions brought by Robinhood Chain indeed inject freshness into the ecosystem and have led the market to reassess the monetization capabilities of L2. However, upon closer inspection, how much of the fees generated by the protocol truly flow back into the DAO treasury, and how much can be converted into actual benefits for ARB holders, is filtered through layers of governance structure, fee distribution mechanisms, and market expectations. The crypto world often equates "ecosystem prosperity" directly with "token bullishness," but frequently skips this crucial step. What truly deserves deep reflection is whether this tech stack can leverage its foundational capabilities to shift from "attracting users on its own" to "renting out financial infrastructure to others." If this can be achieved, the imagination space for the business model will be completely opened; if it is just a temporary hype, the aftermath will inevitably be a mess once the sentiment fades. Currently, on-chain data is still in its early stages, and the details of revenue attribution remain unclear. It is recommended to wait patiently for more detailed accounting information and governance developments to emerge. Short-term volatility of $ARB is inevitable; please view the narrative and fundamentals with rationality. #沃勒：August inflation will determine whether there is a rate hike in September Nonfarm preview: Bull and bear signals are torn apart, employment data faces a major directional test
⚠️ Macro analysis only, not investment advice
Currently, various leading indicators show significant divergence, and the market's expectations for this nonfarm payroll report are seriously split.
JOLTS job openings have rebounded again, the ISM manufacturing prices paid index remains high, inflation stickiness has not completely dissipated, and employment still shows some resilience; however, ADP small nonfarm payrolls have clearly weakened, initial jobless claims remain high, signaling a cooling labor market, with the two leading indicators contradicting each other.
On the policy front, there is division within the Federal Reserve: Waller sends conditional dovish signals, while Walsh maintains a hawkish stance, repeatedly emphasizing that if inflation targets are not met, further tightening cannot be ruled out. On one hand, officials are dovish to repair market sentiment; on the other, inflation-related data continues to constrain, causing the probability of a September rate hike to fluctuate within a range. U.S. Treasury yields are tugging back and forth, risk assets lack clear directional guidance, and the crypto market continues to oscillate at high levels, playing out macro expectations.
If this nonfarm employment and wage data significantly exceed expectations, employment resilience combined with wage rebound will quickly raise rate hike expectations again. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will rebound upward, while stocks, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies will all come under pressure, with high-elasticity coins like ETH experiencing more pronounced pullbacks.
Only a very unlikely sharp weakening of nonfarm payrolls would further ease rate hike concerns and open space for risk asset rebounds.
Nonfarm night market volatility is intense, with spikes and rapid reversals being normal; do not heavily position ahead of the results. Prioritize waiting for the data release and then observe market structure confirmation, and be sure to manage position risk. $BTC $ETH $ZEC BTC has remained there since yesterday's impulse above $80,000 and is consolidating. There was no quick reversal from Strong signal of the high marks on the hourly, 2- and 3-hour TFs, which were listed and shown in yesterday's review. Moreover, sellers are not yet able to gain a stable downtrend even on the 5-minute TF. As you can see from the screenshot, the price has already been sent to the downtrend on this TF three times, but each time buyers restore the uptrend and the density of targets is already accumulating on top to $82,630. But the situation #BTC$SNDK SanDisk is spiking tonight! If you're not afraid of liquidation, you can watch!
SanDisk's rise is never temporary!
Core driver: AI computing power surge drives enterprise-grade SSD demand, while NAND capacity was cut earlier and shifted to HBM, causing severe supply shortages and a sharp price increase. Fiscal year 2026 SanDisk revenue surges 175%, with gross margin climbing to 78.4%.
Amplifiers: Signed long-term agreements with cloud giants to lock in revenue and smooth out cycle fluctuations; spun off from Western Digital and included in key indices, attracting passive funds and achieving valuation reshaping. $MU
Biggest risk: Ultra-high gross margin and 40x forward PE already fully price in optimistic expectations. Once new capacity releases cause prices to fall, the expectation gap may trigger sharp corrections. $SKHYNIX
Dasheng's trading advice: Aggressive traders can go long at the current price; conservative followers can enter long positions around 1560. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线