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$PLTR
After-hours surge 12%! Does the market think it's just a defense stock backed by the government?
The real breakout this quarter wasn't total revenue, but 'U.S. commercial revenue'—a 149% year-over-year increase, which is a direct 2.5-fold increase.
In the past, people laughed at AIP platforms as marketing talk, but this quarter, corporate client net revenue retention soared to 157% (meaning existing customers not only didn't leave but bought more). In a single quarter, 220 new contracts over one million USD were signed, with total contract value increasing 49% year-on-year to 3.37 billion.
While other software stocks were still struggling with "how to monetize AI," Palantir had turned it into a money-printing machine—using a five-day Bootcamp workshop to let clients directly produce usable AI results from their own data, compressing the traditional one-year procurement cycle into a one-week deal.
Don't just focus on government orders to watch this stock; the valuation ceiling has long been redefined by the business side.
$PLTR
#美股#AI變現#財報解讀#美股投資
157% net income retention vs. 71x P/E ratio—if you're a Palantir shareholder, would this earnings report make you want to increase your holdings, or do you think you should cash in first?Bitcoin dominance is like a hyena circling its prey. The pack is distracted by scraps, but the apex predator's eyes remain fixed on the real prize.
The alts are getting restless, with $ADA, $ZEC, $APT, $KITE, and $PUMP enjoying a 24-hour party. $ADA's 5.79% surge is nothing to sneeze at, but its flow patterns paint a more nuanced picture. Liquidity is trickling in, with a few notable exceptions.
$BTC = the anchor holding up the ship, but what's the cargo? $ETH is pulling in institutional inflows, amplifying market volatility. Meanwhile, $SOL's 3% daily range is a ticking time bomb, waiting to unleash chaos.
Don't get caught chasing last week's alts. Focus on the whales that control the flow.
"Your market narrative is only as strong as its weakest link."马斯克不愧是喊单之王
对“回过头来看，这将是一个绝佳的机会”
一句话我也认为从108拉到115
现在 $SPCX 的空头名义仓位约 236 亿美元 、约 2.06 亿股 ，约占自由流通股 32.2% ，已超过特斯拉的约 220 亿美元
空头眼前最确定的逻辑是
极小的流通盘，股票稀缺、价格被推高；解禁一来，股票供给迅速增加。
市场目前到底给了哪些业务估值？
1. Starlink：订阅用户、ARPU、企业/政府客户、卫星与地面网络扩张成本，决定其更接近稳定现金流业务还是持续高资本开支业务
2. 发射业务 ：发射频率和商业订单能否兑现为利润率，而非仅是技术能力
3. AI/算力叙事 ：若其 AI 或数据中心计划仍主要停留在远期愿景，市场可能降低“科技平台型公司”的估值倍数
4. Starship 的资本开支与商业化时间表 ：这是长期上行的最大期权，也是短期财务报表最容易产生争议的成本项AMD is about to release its earnings report, $AMD Q2 revenue of $11.3 billion, a 47% year-on-year increase. The market has fully priced in this forecast, but the core issue is whether the AI revenue from data center MI300 can exceed expectations to support risk appetite.
Combined with the recent PLTR-validated guidance pricing characteristics, current performance meets expectations and cannot continue to drive valuation premiums. Market positions are significantly more sensitive to subsequent AI chip revenue guidance than to overall revenue.
Event risk is transmitted through rapid segmentation of capital preferences, with long positions concentrated at a high level. If the commercial quality of MI300 falls short of expectations, the pressure of risk asset outflows will extend from individual stocks to the entire AI sector.
The scenario for the upside scenario is that data center GPU and MI300-related AI revenue significantly exceeded expectations after the increase, and the Q3 guidance maintains high growth. A variable to watch is the specific proportion of AI revenue in total $11.3 billion in revenue, with a failing signal being data center growth below 47% of total revenue.
The downside scenario triggered the MI300 sales guide, barely meeting the target, which led to a rapid stop-loss on long-position positions that had previously exceeded expectations. The variable to watch is whether sector risk appetite is tightening in sync with other high-valuation stocks, and the expiration signal is that after-hours trading volume quickly digests selling pressure and breaks through previous resistance levels.
The main logic fails if total revenue falls below $11.3 billion, but AI chip revenue surges alone. At that point, the market will shift from evaluating traditional data center business to purely revaluing AI commercialization.
In the next 24 hours, focus on the specific split data of data center GPU business in the 5 a.m. Beijing time earnings report on August 5, as well as the net capital flow of positions after the earnings announcement.
#CLARITY法案剩72小时, the motion was still not submitted #美伊重回谈判桌, and oil prices pulled back#CLARITYAct72Hours
The clock is ticking on Congress's biggest crypto legislation of the year. The CLARITY Act — formally H.R. 3633, the bill that would split U.S. digital asset oversight between the SEC and CFTC — was conspicuously absent from Monday's Senate floor schedule, which listed only a procedural vote on an unrelated spending bill. That's significant because the Senate leaves for its August recess around August 10, and under normal Senate rules, a cloture motion filed Wednesday, August 5 could produce a vote as early as Friday, August 7 — but that vote would only decide whether to end debate and proceed to the bill, not pass it outright. And that procedural vote alone needs 60 votes to succeed, meaning Republicans have to line up genuine Democratic support just to keep the bill alive before recess.
The bill already has real momentum behind it — it passed the House 294-134 back in July 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 in May 2026 — but talks have stalled over disputes involving government ethics rules and stablecoin rewards. The pressure campaign has intensified as the deadline nears: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly pushed the Senate to act, Grayscale has warned that delay threatens U.S. competitiveness in digital assets, and advocacy group Stand With Crypto says supporters have contacted lawmakers over a million times urging passage. Despite the noise, betting markets aren't optimistic — Polymarket's odds on CLARITY becoming law in 2026 have slid to the high-20s to low-30s percent range, down sharply from around 82% back in February, and Galaxy Research recently cut its own estimate from 50% to 30%. If the window closes without action, the bill's fate likely slides into September, right as the crypto industry looks toward the 2026 midterms for leverage. $BTC From rate cuts to rate hikes, the Fed's installment phases are fully public
The market once unanimously bet on the Fed's continued rate cuts, but now policy expectations have completely reversed, the rate cut narrative has quickly faded, rate hike discussions have returned to the spotlight, and the Fed's complete policy path is gradually becoming clearer. The core of this round of expectations reversal lies in the stronger-than-expected inflation resilience and strong employment, combined with geopolitical factors pushing up energy prices, completely disrupting the previous easing timetable.
The current policy cycle can be clearly divided into four phases: the phase of warming up expectations for rate cuts, the wait-and-see period maintaining interest rates, hawkish statements to reshape expectations, and the game to restart rate hikes. The biggest change is that the Fed has weakened its fixed forward-looking guidance, making decisions entirely dependent on real-time data. The old "signaling in advance" model is gone, and market volatility will remain elevated for a long time.
At this stage, the divergence between bulls and bears is clear: bulls are betting on economic slowdown and persistent inflation decline, while rate hikes remain only verbal; Bears are wary that oil prices are driving a rebound in inflation, forcing the Fed to tighten again. In trading, avoid sticking to the first half rate cut mindset; Treasuries, growth stocks, and crypto assets will continue to be affected by interest rate expectations. Going forward, focus will be on CPI, PCE, and employment data. If inflation rebounds again, rate hike expectations will quickly ferment, tightening global liquidity conditions once more.
⚠️ Risk warning: These are personal market views only and do not constitute investment advice. #From rate cuts to rate hikes, Fed disagreements are fully revealed ⚡ $MMT (Momentum) — $0.158
$MMT is a typical case of a "storycoin" crash—plunging from an opening high of $6 to around $0.16.
🛡️ Support: $0.1620 is the tightly traded zone from three weeks ago. $0.1715 is the previous low. Further down at $0.0110 is the position early buyers are trying to defend.
🚧 Resistance level: $0.1850 is the intraday boundary between bulls and bears. After the breakout, the target is $0.1980.
🐳 On-chain market maker movements: 15 minutes plunged 12% to $0.1756, with a turnover of $74 million—bulls and bears were "bloodshot" at the 0.18 level. The thickness of the sell order at the order is 1.7 times that of the buy order, indicating "bear control." 24-hour correlation with BTC is 0.63, and with Nasdaq at 0.51—"more timid than anyone" during macroeconomic tightening. The 0.1718 low is just above the 200-day moving average, and the last three touches have rebounded at least 20%. With a total market value of about $35.65 million, it is a small-cap alt, with strong market control by major players.
📈 Positive news: The historical pattern of three times the 200-day moving average providing support; If macro sentiment improves (such as a rebound in rate cut expectations), it may follow BTC's technical rebound; From a high of $6 to $0.16, a drop of over 97%, the bubble has been significantly unleashed.
📉 Negative news: a typical scenario of "the story is finished, but funds run out"; Poor macro environment (US dollar index 105.5, crypto market net outflow $430 million); 78% probability of the Fed not cutting rates in June; Heavy positions carry significant risk; it is recommended to keep your position within 5%. #从降息到加息, Fed Divergences Fully Revealed: #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX Close to Close, Circle Closes #Palantir营收增93%, Gains 13% in After-Hours #财报观察员：AMD and SpaceX reports are imminent, Circle is the finale
Palantir's first report confirmed the "guidance sets the price" rule, rising 15%. There are three reports left, who can replicate this?
🔴 AMD (around 5:00 AM Beijing time on August 5)
Expected revenue of $11.3 billion, up 47% year-over-year. The key question is the quality of AI chips—whether MI300 can carve out a market share in data center GPUs. If it meets expectations but is not enough, AI revenue exceeding expectations is needed for a price increase.
(As long as the AI chip is released normally, AMD is guaranteed to rise)
🚀 SpaceX (around 4:30 AM Beijing time on August 5)
Stock price fell from 225 to 108, 20% below IPO price. Over $100 billion will be unlocked on August 6. To hold the price, they would need solid positive news like "moon landing this year"—but the probability is extremely low. The pressure is the highest certainty.
(According to market discussions, it will fall)
🟢 Circle (around 8:00 PM Beijing time on August 5, the finale)
Expected revenue of $714 million, tied to USDC scale and interest rates. USDC reserves have shrunk to 72.06 billion. Whether the volume shrinkage can be offset by high interest rates is key, and it is most likely to deliver a surprise.
(It depends on the hype, after all, most funds are currently in US stocks)
Who can replicate the 15% rise? AMD relies on AI exceeding expectations, SpaceX is almost impossible, Circle has the greatest possibility. The answer will be revealed tonight.
$AMD $SPCX $PLTR #BigTechEarningsWatch Palantir opened earnings week with a 93% growth print, raised guidance, popped 12%. Guidance is the ticket — beat without it and you get sold 📈
AMD after Aug 4 close: consensus $11.3B revenue, +47% YoY. Margins and AI chip demand are the real read. If AMD's AI numbers hold up, it puts more pressure on the "AI demand is fading" narrative 👀
SpaceX drops its first ever public-company earnings the same day. Aug 6 lockup of up to 911.5M shares right after — sell pressure and Starlink margin quality both under the microscope simultaneously 🚀
Circle pre-market Aug 5: consensus ~$714M, directly tied to USDC supply dynamics and rate sensitivity as reserves slip to $72.06B. Stablecoin economics are the story here 💵
Three very different companies, all reporting in a 48-hour window. Palantir already showed the market rewards guidance over revenue 🤔
AMD, SpaceX, Circle — which one has the most riding on this print for the broader crypto and AI narrative? 👇Monday, August 3rd.
The Senate announced this week's agenda.
The CLARITY Act is not on top.
In its place is the H.R.6500—a persistent resolution with absolutely no connection to encryption.
On August 7, the Senate adjourned.
Time left for the bill: 72 hours.
But the problem is—they haven't even reached the starting line.
On Polymarket, the probability of the bill passing in 2026 is 27%.
At the beginning of the year, this figure was 82%. Kalshi gave even more aggressively—33%. Galaxy Research has cut the price directly from 50% to 30%.
Thirty percent. The probability is even lower than guessing heads and tails by flipping a coin.
You think 72 hours is long? Come, let me break down the Senate's inhumane procedures:
First hurdle: Submitting a cloture application (motion to end debate), which requires signatures from 16 senators.
16 people. Sounds like nothing? But this is a request to "end the debate"—meaning you have to convince 16 senators to agree "enough arguing, just vote directly."
Second hurdle: Cloture voting, requires 60 votes.
100 senators, three-fifths. Even if the Republicans unanimously support it—53 seats—they would still need to bring in at least seven Democrats.
Seven people. These seven people have been stuck on the bill for two months.
The third hurdle: even if the cloture passes, you can still debate for another 30 hours.
30 hours. Only after the debate is done that a vote on "whether to enter the review" is "not to vote on the bill itself."
Even if the green light is clear, the cloture vote will take place as early as Friday (August 7).
And then? The meeting is adjourned.
The bill itself? The interrogation hasn't even begun.
Wednesday (August 5) is the last chance to submit your Cloture application.
Thursday? It was too late. Friday? The meeting is adjourned.
So—if 16 people don't sign by Wednesday, the bill doesn't even have a chance to be "vetoed."
Directly stillborn.
Someone asked: After reuniting in September, can you solve this arithmetic problem?
The deputies did not return until September 14. And then?
There are less than two months left until the midterm elections.
By then, who will still be able to control your crypto bill? The councilors' minds are all focused on the election campaign.
Missing the August window means that after the September resumption, there will only be three weeks of meetings. What can three weeks do? Can you handle ethical clauses? Can it resolve the stablecoin yield controversy? Can it turn the tables for seven Democrats?
It's harder than getting Bitcoin to rise to 70,000 in a single day.
And don't forget—within the Republican Party, Josh Hawley and Rand Paul have clearly expressed their opposition. The actual available votes were less than 51.
Still can't even gather 53 seats, and even bring in 7 Democrats?
What is the most critical bottleneck?
Not votes. It's not time.
No one really cares.
Last week, Grayscale was also urging the Senate to vote quickly. Finance Minister Besent made a public statement. Industry representatives have contacted Congress over one million times.
Is it useful?
As soon as Monday's agenda came out—there was nothing.
Both parties are still discussing ethical clauses, stablecoin yields, and whether officials can issue tokens.
A 616-page bill, stuck in just a few words.
The Trump family made $1.2 billion from crypto. The Democrats say you're making too much money, and we don't believe this bill. The Republicans say the terms can be changed, but voting should be arranged first.
Both sides are acting. The ones who get hurt are you holding positions.
To put it bluntly—
BTC is near $63,900 today. Panic and Greed Index 28 — "Fear."
Trading volume plunged 71%. Duokong dared not move.
Why? Because everyone is waiting for the same signal: is there still any chance for the bill?
But the problem is—the signal may never come.
If you still have a large amount of altcoins, bet on a wave of price surges after the bill passes—
You're betting on something that is 73% unlikely to happen.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #CLARITY法案剩72小时, the motion has not yet been submitted #FedSplitGoesPublic The Fed is openly split and the debate has shifted from "how much to hike" to "hike or cut" 👀
Hike camp: Logan says rates should be modestly higher. Hammack points to five straight years above 2% target. Kashkari backs a 25bp hike at September. The inflation argument 📈
Cut camp: Waller warns the job market could weaken faster than expected and backs a 25bp cut at the Sept 16-17 meeting. The only public cut call on the table 📉
And Warsh? Called 2% "unshakeable," refused to give any guidance, took no side. Classic. The path to September rests entirely on two CPI prints now 🫠
Markets are tilting toward a hike. But Waller's cut call means a weak jobs print or cool CPI could flip pricing fast. Everything is data-dependent in the most literal sense 🤔
Hike camp vs cut camp, September meeting the battleground, two CPI prints to decide it all. Which side are you on — and what's the number that would change your mind? 👇#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币, scale halved
MSTR sold 1,638 BTC again, breaking the myth of only buying but not selling, and the whale's holding logic completely changed
First, clarify the core facts. Many people misread the headline and think their holdings will be cut in half. First, correct the data, then break down the reasons for selling coins, market shocks, and outlook on the market, explaining institutional trends.
1. Core Data of This Sell-off (SEC Disclosure Documents on August 3)
1. Trading Session: July 27 to August 2, with a total of 1,638 Bitcoins sold over four trading days, with a total transaction price of $104.7 million, and an average selling price per token of $63,957.
2. Selling at a loss: MSTR's average overall holding cost is $75,419, so each coin is sold at a low price of $11,462, representing passive cashing out while at a floating loss.
3. Latest Total Holdings: After reduction, 842138 BTC remain, still the world's largest holder of Bitcoin, accounting for nearly 4% of Bitcoin's total permanent circulation; It is not that holdings have been halved; the online rumor of "scale halved" is a misinformation, interpreted as panic caused by two consecutive weeks of large shipments after the company launched its maximum $5 billion coin sale plan.
4. Funding: The cash-out funds are split in two—one half to pay preferred dividends, and the other half to buy back their own STRC preferred shares. It's not a direct exit when they're bearish on Bitcoin; At the same time, the sale of some MSTR shares directly pushed the company's dollar cash reserves up to $4 billion.
2. Timeline for continuous coin selling: Stuck to the five-year principle of 'never selling coins,' but this year he completely changed his stance
1. End of June: Conducted a tentatively sell of 32 BTC, which was only a trading process test, and the market paid little attention;
2. Early July: First large-scale sale of 3,588 tokens, cashing out $216 million, initiating active coin selling;
3. End of July this round: sold another 1,638 Bitcoins, totaling over 5,200 Bitcoins sold over two weeks;
4. Key policy changes: The company raised the quota for selling Bitcoin from $1.25 billion to $5 billion, officially establishing a normalized BTC monetization mechanism. The previous flywheel model of "financing → buying coins → uncontrollable" was halted.
3. Why would you rather lose money than sell coins? Two fundamental realities
1. High-leverage financing pressure is overwhelming, and cash flow must be a safety net
In the past, MSTR relies on issuing convertible bonds and borrowing preferred shares to frantically accumulate coins, paying huge dividends and interest every year; This year, Bitcoin has fluctuated downward, MSTR's stock price has plunged 40% this year, making equity financing more difficult and making it impossible to easily issue new shares and buy coins as easily as in previous years.
If you don't sell coins to pay interest, you face debt liquidity risk. Compared to floating losses on paper, the company's primary goal is to ensure no debt default.
2. Expectations of Fed rate hikes heat up, leading to a pause in aggressive position-building
At this stage, the market is generally concerned that the Federal Reserve will resume rate hikes in September, and in a high interest rate environment, the cost of borrowing and hoarding coins will further skyrocket; Management has made it clear: the newly raised funds will no longer buy Bitcoin, prioritizing expanding US dollar cash reserves, and temporarily halting institutional holdings of the most core incremental funds.
Additional distinction: Founder Sayler personally didn't sell a single coin; this is just a capital adjustment at the legal representative level. I remain bullish on BTC for a long time, dispelling some rumors that the big shot is running away.
4. Short-term + medium- to long-term impact on the Bitcoin market
Short-term sentiment is bearish
After the news broke, Bitcoin in Asian trading plunged sharply by 1%, weakening under pressure; MSTR is widely recognized by retail investors as a "bullish indicator for institutional bulls." Consecutive losses in selling coins weaken the confidence of speculative funds on the market, making short-term bulls hesitant to enter the market rashly. BTC is likely to maintain a narrow oscillating grinding trend.
In the medium to long term, there is no need to panic excessively
1. The massive 840,000 BTC holdings remain untouched, only a tiny portion is cashed out to repay debts, not a large-scale liquidation and escape;
2. Institutional selling is for financial liquidity management, not to deny Bitcoin's value. As long as Bitcoin's price stabilizes and moves out of its lows, small positions may be restarted later;
3. Industry chain effects: Many overseas SMEs that have emulated MSTR in coin database assets will begin to establish monetization plans. Subsequent selling pressure from small institutions at floating losses requires continued attention.
5. Personal Market Outlook Strategy
At this stage, I won't blindly short or bottom-fish just because of a single whale's selling news. Instead, focus on two signals:
First, whether MSTR will continue to sell large amounts of BTC going forward. If the 5 billion quota continues to be depleted, it will need to further reduce its position to hedge risks;
Second, US Treasury yields, PCE inflation data, and expectations of Fed rate hikes are the core factors determining whether institutions dare to buy coins again.
Recently, many people in the circle have been short on BTC because of MSTR selling. Do you think this is just a short-term selling by institutions repaying debt, or a sign that bullish faith is starting to collapse?Why Are Indonesian Entrepreneurs Excluded from the Top Ranks of the Richest People in ASEAN?
The wealth map in Southeast Asia underwent major changes throughout 2026. For the first time since 2015, not a single Indonesian businessman made it into the top five richest people in ASEAN based on Forbes' real-time rankings.
The top five positions are now occupied by billionaires from Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore with a total wealth of US$107.9 billion. This condition is inversely proportional to the beginning of the year, when four out of five positions were still controlled by Indonesian entrepreneurs.
This phenomenon is not just a change in the number of individual wealth, but reflects a shift in the direction of business growth in the region.
The increase in the valuation of technology, infrastructure, semiconductor, and electric vehicle companies is the main driver for the birth of new leaders in Southeast Asia.
On the other hand, the position of Indonesian conglomerates weakened due to the decline in the share value of a number of large companies. One of the most striking is the decline in Prajogo Pangestu's wealth after the shares of issuers affiliated with the Barito Pacific Group experienced pressure throughout the first half of 2026.
Topping the list today is Pham Nhat Vuong of Vietnam with a net worth of US$33.6 billion. The surge in his wealth was driven by the strengthening of Vingroup's shares, the growth in sales of VinFast's electric cars, and the expansion of the high-speed train project through VinSpeed.
The next position is occupied by Enrique Razon Jr., Sarath Ratanavadi, Dhanin Chearavanont, and Jason Chang. The increase in their wealth was driven by a rally in stocks in the port, energy, food, and semiconductor sectors that experienced an acceleration in infrastructure and artificial intelligence (AI) investment.
It can be said that while other countries are aggressively building businesses based on technology, logistics, AI, and electric vehicles, Indonesia faces the challenge of producing more high-value companies to compete again at the regional level.现在币圈最统一的观点，不是牛市马上回来，而是： 这一轮熊市就算还没见到最低点，应该也走得差不多了。 新韭菜觉得已经跌得够狠，老玩家觉得时间也磨得够久，机构则不再讨论比特币会不会消失，而是在研究现在买，还是再等一次回踩。 当然，共识不代表一定正确。 但我觉得，到了这个阶段，继续猜最低点已经不是最重要的事。真正重要的是： 牛市重新启动时，我手里拿的到底是不是最容易被资金重新买回去的币？ 现在不一定是底，但已经不像熊市早期 目前BTC约6.3万美元，ETH约1625美元，SOL约78美元，DOGE约0.07美元。 比特币相较2025年10月超过12.6万美元的高点，已经回撤超过50%。2026年6月，价格还触及了长期关注的200周均线。CoinShares统计，此前五次触及这条均线后，比特币一年后的价格都更高；但历史样本不多，这只能说明赔率在改善，不能证明最低点已经出现。 图片内容：BTC本轮回撤位置图 老钱没有跑光，只是开始挑价格了 最近比特币ETF确实出现过连续流出。比如7月23日和24日，美国现货比特币ETF单日合计分别净流出约2.25亿和2.40亿美元。说明机构也会止损、调仓和等待更#USJapanYenIntervention
Japan and the U.S. just carried out their first coordinated currency intervention since 2011, stepping in Friday to halt the yen's slide to its weakest level in roughly 40 years. The yen had tumbled to 163.73 per dollar last Thursday before rebounding sharply to 157.57 on Friday after the two countries jointly bought yen and sold dollars. Japan's Ministry of Finance confirmed Monday that it may have spent as much as $36.6 billion on the operation, while the U.S. Treasury reportedly sold euros to help fund yen purchases. President Trump framed the move casually, telling reporters "they wanted a little bit of help, and we're always there for Japan," calling it mostly "a signal of friendship." U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent struck a more formal tone, saying the action "countered disorderly yen movements" and that Washington "will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention."
Behind the friendly framing, analysts see real stakes for both sides. For Japan, a persistently weak yen risks triggering further selling in Japanese government bonds, and Tokyo signaled it plans to tap the Fed's FIMA repo facility for future dollar liquidity — a move that lets Japan raise dollars without dumping U.S. Treasuries, easing concerns that solo intervention could spill over into U.S. funding markets. For the U.S., a weaker yen threatens to widen the trade deficit, and rising JGB yields could add pressure to already-climbing U.S. Treasury yields. It's the first joint yen-buying operation between the two countries since 1998, and with both governments explicitly promising more action if needed, currency traders are bracing for further intervention through the rest of the summer. #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币, scale halved
MicroStrategy is selling coins again, but the interpretation of this matter is quite different from what most people think.
From July 27 to August 2, 1,638 BTC were sold, cashing out 104.7 million, with an average price of $63,957. Last time, 3,588 BTC were sold in early July; this time, the price has been halved.
The reason for selling is simple—there's a dividend to pay. Preferred stock dividends are 12% annualized, so you can't skip paying. Using the money from selling coins to pay dividends and buy back preferred shares is part of managing existing funds, not actively shorting Bitcoin. The logic is the same as last time, unchanged.
The real interesting part is this—the company still has 842138 BTC on its books, and the proportion hasn't changed. On-chain data also shows no obvious one-sided selling pressure; the market has become desensitized to MicroStrategy selling coins. The first time they sold, everyone panicked, but by the second time, there was basically no response.
The conditions for restarting buying coins are also in place. Once the preferred stock price is adjusted back to the issue price, there is still a 10% shortfall. Once that batch is restored, MicroStrategy's buying rhythm will resume. It's not urgent, and you don't need to rush along.
$BTC $SNDK $BICO 72 hours. The bill doesn't even qualify to be put on the table.
Monday, August 3rd.
The Senate announced this week's agenda.
The CLARITY Act is not on top.
Instead, it was H.R.6500—a funding bill that had nothing to do with cryptocurrency.
On August 7, the Senate adjourned.
Time left for the bill: 72 hours.
But the problem is—they haven't even reached the starting line.
You think 72 hours is long?
Let me break down the Senate's inhumane procedures:
The first hurdle: submitting a cloture (termination of debate) application, which requires signatures from 16 senators.
16 people. Sounds like nothing? This is a request for "Stop arguing, just vote directly."
Second hurdle: Cloture voting, requires 60 votes.
The Republicans held 53 seats, Hawley and Paul clearly opposed it, McConnell did not vote again after being hospitalized—a reliable vote count of at most 50.
At least seven Democrats would need to be pulled in.
These seven people have been stuck on the bill for two months.
The third hurdle: even if the cloture passes, you can still debate for another 30 hours.
30 hours. Only after the debate is done that a vote on "whether to enter the review" is "not to vote on the bill itself."
Even if the green light is clear, the cloture vote will take place as early as Friday (August 7).
And then? The meeting is adjourned.
The bill itself? The interrogation hasn't even begun.
Do you now understand where the problem lies?
Wednesday (August 5) is the last chance to submit your Cloture application.
Thursday? It was too late. Friday? The meeting is adjourned.
So—if 16 people don't sign today, this bill doesn't even have a chance to be "vetoed." Directly stillborn.
How does the market view it?
BTC fluctuated between $63,000 and $63,500.
But don't be fooled by the price—trading volume plummeted by 71%.
Duokong dared not move.
Why? Because everyone is waiting for the same signal: is there still any chance for the bill?
On Polymarket, the probability of the bill passing in 2026 is between 26% and 31%.
At the beginning of the year, this figure was 82%.
From 82% to 26%. It has dropped 56 percentage points in half a year.
Galaxy Research is even harsher—cutting the price directly from 50% to 30%.
Thirty percent.
Do you know what that means?
The market believes the probability of a bill passing is even lower than the probability of guessing heads and tails by flipping a coin.
To put it bluntly—
Last week, Grayscale was also urging the Senate to vote quickly.
Finance Minister Besent made a public statement.
Industry representatives have contacted Congress over one million times.
Is it useful?
As soon as Monday's agenda came out—there was nothing.
Both parties are still discussing ethical clauses, stablecoin yields, and whether officials can issue tokens.
A 616-page bill, stuck in just a few words.
The Trump family made $1.2 billion from crypto.
The Democrats say you're making too much money, and we don't believe this bill.
The Republicans say the terms can be changed, but voting should be arranged first.
Both sides are acting.
The most crucial sentence—
Even if the procedural vote starts this week, it will only leave a "measure" for the resumption in September.
Reunion in September? There are still two months left until the midterm elections.
By then, who will still be able to control your crypto bill?
The probability of passing by 2026 is shrinking by the hour.
If you still have a large amount of altcoins, bet on a wave of price surges after the bill passes—
You're betting on something that is 70% unlikely to happen.
Can I submit today?
My judgment: the probability is extremely low.
16 signatures are not enough. Seven Democrats can't find enough. It doesn't make it on the agenda.
Lummis said that for weeks, the bill has been on the agenda for a reserved place.
But "keeping a seat" and "having someone to sit on it" are two different things.
No movement today, just no movement.
Finally, let me say something heartbreaking—
Jiang Zhuoer said that if the CLARITY Act cannot be passed before the recess, Bitcoin may complete its final bearish dip.
The chip concentration in the $62,000–$63,000 range is as high as 8%, similar to the eve of the FTX collapse in 2022.
High concentration + negative news reallocating = violent redistribution.
You're not holding on.
You are waiting to be assigned.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #CLARITY法案剩72小时, the motion has not yet been submitted Just finished a cold shower, scrolled on my phone for a while, and suddenly burst out laughing.
He laughed that he used to really treat K-lines like his ancestors.
Those idiot knockoffs in my account that used to set alarms for 3 a.m., afraid to miss any big shock, now have prices as flat as my dog's ECG. It's not about money, it's just that I suddenly figured it out—this pile of broken code might not even catch a whiff of the next halving market.
That's a harsh thing, but you can read the exchange's real-time trading data yourself.
I once met a guy who heavily invested in Animal Coins, took it all the way from the mountaintop to the basement, and was chattering in the group every day about 'big player address anomaly' and 'daily bottom divergence confirmed immediately.' I said, 'Can you wake up?' That's called faith? What you call it hurting like not wanting to cut with a single blade.
Last month, the 24-hour trading volume of his coin was damn less than $500,000. The pinned post in the community was still a Mid-Autumn Festival blessing from three months ago, with only two replies below: one for an ad and one for "Good Person of the Original Poster."
The whole board is practically slapping "Run" on your face. This round is far from a flourishing bull market; it's a battlefield of stock cutting into each other. To put it bluntly, it's smart money paying a grave to foolish money.
Those quantitative funds are now extremely cunning, only daring to trade short-term on a handful of stocks with buzz, trading support, and room for volatility. The rest? Every day, I throw you a little in fixed amounts, until you become numb, until you open your wallet and can't even be bothered to scold anyone.
I just glanced at the financial movements over the past 12 hours today (August 4th), and his mom is as precise as a scalpel. See for yourself:
✅ Net capital inflow (mainly driven by buying):
$BTC • $ETH • $SOL • $DOGE • $XRP • $ADA • $DOT • $AVAX • $LTC • $MATIC
The big bing was as steady as an old dog, and the string below was full of the top twenty faces by market value. All the money is squeezing toward the safest place, which itself is the most cowardly signal. New public chain? Cross-chain bridges? Gaming platform? Not a single hair can be seen on today's list; everything is soaking in the cesspit.
❌ Continued capital outflows (obvious selling pressure):
$SHIB • $TRX • $NEAR • $ATOM • $ALGO • $VET • $ICP • $FIL • $EGLD • $FTM • $SAND • $MANA
There are several of them. Last year, the "foundational infrastructure" hyped up by major communities was the best. What about now? The rebound was as soft as noodles, as if someone had slapped its spine—no matter how hard you tried, you just couldn't lift it. Especially the batch of metaverse products—once the hype fades, they become dead dogs—anyone who touches them is an idiot.
👀 Swiping through the self-selected list but not even raising a finger:
$KAS • $ARB • $OP • $SUI • $APT
Just swipe past. At this point, itching is even scarier than losing money.
A few more words about those big shots you can't avoid:
👑 $BTC** — The anchor of the sea, if it ever becomes unstable, everyone will perish with it
🏛️ **$ETH — The ETF trivial matter is being held on and is dragging its feet, but very few people dare to actually short it
⚡ $SOL** — An emotional thermometer, jumping up and down like you're on drugs, fast in and out, don't stay overnight, or you'll be the one who can't sleep at night
🤖 **$DOGE** — Musk can pull 5 points when he farts, but he comes fast and leaves even faster; if he runs slow, he just stands guard
📉 **$XRP — The consolidation range is narrowing more and more, the market is changing quickly, but who knows the direction
Every cycle repeatedly teaches the same lesson: don't think every stupid project can be made again, don't believe that every roadmap isn't drawn on a PPT.
Those ruthless people who truly live and take money away from the market never place orders based on the words "I feel like it's about to rebound." They don't count waves, draw lines, or believe those dumb indicators; they only look at where the on-chain clearing line is, whether funding rates are normal, and whether contract holdings have exploded.
Faith? Can faith be eaten as food? Mobility is your real daddy, remember.
I lost a Porsche before I truly engraved this sentence in my bones. I hope you pay less tuition and don't follow my old path.
---
It's the weekend, so I tossed my phone aside. Go out and bask in the sun, have a couple of drinks, and chat about things that have nothing to do with the price of the coins. Next Tuesday opens as usual, but your hair and liver may not be.
The market always remains—make sure you live comfortably first.
#Crypto #Bitcoin #加密市场 #资金流向 #周末 #去他妈的行情Guys, EDGE rose 4.54% today, currently quoted at $0.3586, marking a technical recovery phase that started from the $0.32 support range.
After plunging from its high of $1.54, the coin has remained in a bottom-consolidating range for a long time. One token supply data point worth noting: EDGE's current circulation rate is only 35%, with the remaining 65% tokens locked long-term, with the cliff locked until March 2027, after which linear phased unlocking will begin. In the short term, there is no large-scale selling pressure from new tokens, forming a defensive barrier at the bottom price. On-chain data shows that over the past week, the spot market saw a net outflow of about $2.23 million of EDGE, with tokens continuously migrating from exchanges to personal wallets;
Reminder: Withdrawals are only neutral signals and cannot be directly equated with long-term accumulation.
But low-circulation structures are a classic double-edged sword. After the 2027 lock-up cycle ends, large volumes of tokens will continue to enter the market, and the dilution pressure on forward supply needs to be addressed. Fundamentals are also under pressure: protocol revenue plunged 66% year-on-year, token buyback efforts weakened, and token prices are highly sensitive to changes in platform revenue; The trust crisis triggered by the previous plunge from $1.54 to $0.24 has yet to be fully resolved.
Key price level: Resistance at $0.42; a strong breakout on increased volume will open up recovery space toward $0.45-$0.54; Support at $0.35; if it falls, the next target should be $0.32.
$0.42 is the most important resistance zone recently. ⚠️ Note that a brief intraday spike does not count as a breakout; it requires volume and candlestick bodies to hold for a valid signal. If multiple upward attempts are blocked by volume, the consolidation pattern will continue; 0.35 is the first short-term bullish line of defense, and 0.32 is the last key support for the bulls.
For these low-circulation, high-volatility knockoff assets, the market is explosive but also quick to reverse. Fast entry and exit are the trading bottom line, and it's not suitable for long-term heavy holding.
Personal market view analysis and market information compilation, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $EDGE
#从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully public
#财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale
#Palantir营收增93%, up 13% in after-hours trading. The selling I flagged is now a pattern, not a one-off. Strategy sold another 1,638 BTC, roughly half the size of its first sale, cutting holdings to about 842,138 BTC, and paired it with fresh share issuance to fund preferred dividends and buybacks. This is the second sale in weeks from a company whose entire brand was "never sell." The model is being managed in real time now.
Read it for what it is, not the headline. This isn't a bitcoin-conviction problem, it's a cash-flow one: a leveraged holder with dividends and debt is using its most liquid asset to meet obligations when the stock and coin aren't doing the heavy lifting. Selling BTC to fund dividends backed by more share issuance is a machine that works beautifully in a bull market and grinds in a flat one. Not a collapse, a maturing, and a live demonstration of why owning BTC and owning a BTC-treasury company are different risks. Watching whether the sales keep shrinking or keep coming.
Not advice, just analysis.
#StrategySellsMore #OKXOrbitISM hits a four-year high.
However, U.S. Treasury yields have fallen.
The market is trading an interesting signal:
The U.S. economy has not collapsed, but funds have already started betting on rate cuts.
The latest data shows that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index has risen to its highest level in nearly four years.
The normal logic should be:
The economy is getting stronger
↓
Inflationary pressures are increasing
↓
It is more difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates
↓
U.S. Treasury yields rose
But this time, the market did not follow that path.
After the data was released, U.S. Treasury yields actually retreated.
Why?
Because investors are not focused on how strong the economy is today.
Instead:
Will the Fed start cutting interest rates in the coming months?
Now, a contradiction has emerged in the market:
On one hand:
✅ The resilience of the U.S. economy remains
✅ Manufacturing improved
✅ Business activity is rebounding
On the other hand:
⚠️ Inflation continues to decline
⚠️ The labor market is cooling down
⚠️ Expectations for rate cuts have surged again
My view:
This is an important signal for risk assets.
If the following arises in the future:
The economy is not bad + interest rates are falling
This is usually the market's favorite environment.
Because:
Stocks gain growth support.
Crypto assets are expected to gain liquidity.
But if the data remains strong enough to make the Fed worry about inflation again,
Market logic may reverse.
So what we really need to look at now isn't this:
"Is the U.S. economy good?"
Instead:
How long can the economy remain strong without stopping rate cuts?
This balance point,
This is the biggest market transaction in the second half of the year.
Do you think the Fed will cut rates next or continue to maintain high rates?
$BTC
#ISM创四年新高, U.S. Treasury yields have reversed 美联储FOMC议息会议，是影响区块链与加密金融市场最重要的外部宏观因素，它通过调节美元利率，改变全球市场的流动性松紧，间接左右整个赛道的资金流向与风险偏好。 当FOMC释放鸽派信号，市场产生降息预期时，美债无风险收益回落，持有比特币这类无息资产的机会成本下降。机构资金风险偏好提升，增量资金会流向加密资产，利好比特币、以太坊等大盘币种，DeFi、RWA等赛道活跃度也会随之回暖，链上借贷、交易规模同步抬升。但市场常常出现“买预期，卖事实”现象，降息真正落地后，反而容易迎来利好兑现的回调。 反之，如果FOMC态度鹰派，选择加息或者维持高利率，资金成本会显著抬升。大量资金会从高风险市场撤出，回流固收类产品。加密市场整体承压，高波动的山寨币、MEME币种受冲击最大，容易发生合约去杠杆、集体抛售的行情。同时链上DeFi借贷意愿降低，RWA新项目融资难度增加，行业扩张节奏被压制。 不同赛道受政策冲击程度存在差异。比特币、以太坊对利率变动最为敏感；DeFi业务直接受资金成本影响；RWA赛道会跟随美债利率变化；稳定币的发行流通规模，也会被美元流动性间接带动。 值得注意的是，市场交易的往往是对未来利率的预#Amazon3TrillionClub
Amazon just crossed the $3 trillion market cap threshold for the first time, becoming the fifth company in history to hit that mark — joining Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet. Shares jumped roughly 5% on Monday to a fresh all-time high near $285-287, extending a two-session rally that started with a 15% pop the previous Friday. The catalyst was a blowout Q2 earnings report: AWS revenue hit $42.2 billion, blowing past the $40.5 billion expected, with operating margins at 39%. Total revenue came in at $200.6 billion versus $196.5 billion forecast, and adjusted EPS of $1.97 beat estimates of $1.82. CEO Andy Jassy told investors demand is so strong that even with rising capacity, "we will still not have enough capacity to meet all the demand we have in 2026" — and said early demand signals for 2028 are already "striking."
What makes the milestone notable is the pace: Amazon took just over two years to go from $2 trillion to $3 trillion, compared to more than six years to go from $1 trillion to $2 trillion — a sign of how fast AI-driven cloud demand is compounding valuations. The move also came with a cost: Amazon raised its 2026 capex guidance to $220 billion, up from $200 billion, mostly to fund data centers and AI infrastructure. That's part of a broader divide this earnings season — Amazon and Microsoft have been rewarded by investors for their AI spending, while Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla all saw shares fall after reporting similarly heavy AI investment, showing the market isn't paying for capex alone anymore — it wants proof the spending converts into revenue. This week, U.S. stocks entered the most critical earnings window of the year. The three core themes—AI computing power, space technology, and crypto liquidity—are all interlocking, with AMD and SPCX leading the showdown, and Circle closing the showdown. These three financial reports are not just individual stock report cards, but also the main switches for global technology valuations, risk appetite, and market liquidity. 1. AMD: The True Touchstone of AI Computing Power Prosperity This round of AI sector corrections has been around for a long time; the market is no longer a "bullish story" but focuses on earnest results. Market consensus expectation: revenue of 11.3 billion yuan, EPS nearly doubling year-on-year. But the key point is not whether the standards are met, but three core data points: 1. The actual shipment volume of MI series AI chips to verify whether the supply of secondary computing power beyond NVIDIA is truly starting to grow; 2. Can gross margin stabilize? In today's intensified AI hardware competition, profit represents the industry's value more than revenue; 3. Q3 forward-looking guidance: decide whether institutions will raise their full-year AI computing power forecasts again. In short: AMD's earnings report beats expectations = AI sector collectively recovers; AMD's earnings report falls short of expectations = global AI capital spending cools, and high tech valuations are collectively under pressure. It is the temperature switch for this week's tech market. 2. SPCX: First Exam to Listing + Epic Unlock, The Biggest Life-or-Death Match of the Year The real highlight this week isn't the financial report, but the dual pressure test of earnings + massive volume unlock. As the first official quarterly report after listing, the market faces SPCX's true assets for the first time: Starlink revenue growth, cash flow cash generation capacity, AI and Starship cash burn rate, and commerce🚨 Four major earnings reports are set to shape market sentiment next week—but for crypto, one stands above the rest.
Palantir, AMD, SpaceX (SPCX), and Circle (CRCL) will report earnings in succession. While the first three provide insight into AI and broader tech demand, Circle's results could offer the clearest read on institutional activity in the crypto market.
Here's what to watch:
📌 Palantir AI demand from governments and enterprises. Strong order growth would reinforce confidence in the AI sector.
📌 AMD AI chip revenue, customer demand, and capital expenditure guidance. A key indicator for the health of the AI infrastructure cycle.
📌 SpaceX (SPCX) Its first earnings report since listing, alongside a major share unlock. Watch Starlink revenue, cash burn, and Starship progress. As a high-beta growth stock, sentiment could spill over into broader risk assets.
📌 Circle (CRCL) — The Crypto Focus Q2 earnings are expected on August 5. The most important metrics include:
• USDC circulation
• Reserve income
• Distribution costs
• Progress on regulatory and trust license initiatives
With crypto revenues softening at some major platforms and USDT growth slowing, the market is asking one key question:
Are institutions leaving crypto—or simply rotating into regulated stablecoins while waiting for the next opportunity?
Possible signals:
✅ USDC supply increases: Suggests institutional capital remains active and may be positioning for future market participation.
⚠️ USDC supply declines: Could indicate tighter liquidity and a more cautious institutional environment.
Circle's earnings may not trigger an immediate market breakout, but they could provide valuable insight into the liquidity backdrop that shapes crypto's next major move.
This is my personal market view, not financial advice.
$BTC $ETH $CRCL $SPCX #DailyOrbit #Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum
#BigTechEarningsWatch #CLARITYAct72Hours #USJapanYenIntervention #From rate cuts to rate hikes, the Fed's divisions fully exposed
Will the Federal Reserve cut or raise rates in September?
Currently, a rare split has emerged within the Fed: Waller is on the side of cutting rates, believing that risks are accumulating in the labor market, and if high interest rates are maintained, the policy adjustment window might be missed. He supports a 25 basis point cut in September. On the other hand, officials like Logan and Kashkari stand for rate hikes, with a simple core reason—the inflation rate has not truly returned to 2%, and the policy restrictions might still be insufficient.
This is like a ship encountering two ocean currents. On one side, inflation is a heavy stone pressing on the stern, reminding the Fed not to let go too early; on the other side, the undercurrent in the labor market is approaching, reminding policy makers not to focus only on past data but to prevent a sudden economic slowdown in the future.
For the September FOMC, I lean towards a 25 basis point rate cut.
There are three main reasons.
First, the direction of inflation has begun to change. Although it is still some distance from the 2% target, the June PCE has already shown a month-on-month decline, and the year-on-year rate fell from 4.1% to 3.7%, indicating that the past high interest rates are starting to transmit their demand-suppressing effects. If the next two CPI reports continue to show cooling trends, the necessity for the Fed to maintain high rates will decrease.
Second, the labor market is becoming the biggest variable. The Fed does not only look at inflation; it has a "dual mandate." For the past two years, the market has been worried about inflation, but now the biggest risk is shifting from "price increases" to "employment deterioration." If unemployment starts to rise and companies slow hiring, the Fed cutting rates again might shift from a proactive choice to a reactive firefighting measure.
Third, and most importantly, policy cycles often do not wait for all data to be perfectly confirmed before acting. Monetary policy has a lag effect; if rate cuts wait until the economy clearly cools, it might already be too late. Waller’s early signaling of rate cuts is essentially trying to gain policy space.
Of course, the hawkish side also has logic. Rising oil prices, fiscal stimulus, and economic resilience could cause inflation to rebound. If future CPI unexpectedly bounces back, expectations for a September rate cut could quickly collapse.
But at this point in time, I am more willing to bet on a Fed rate cut in September rather than a hike.
The reason is simple: inflation is slowly receding, while employment risks are turning from distant dark clouds into shadows overhead. The Fed will not wait for a downpour to close the umbrella; it is more likely to adjust early when it sees the clouds approaching.
For the market, if a rate cut really happens in September, the biggest beneficiaries might be risk assets, including U.S. stocks and Bitcoin. Because the market is not trading the 25 basis points themselves, but a signal—that the Fed’s policy turning point may have begun.
But if CPI heats up again and the Fed remains hawkish, the market may face a correction in expectations.
Therefore, the next two CPI reports are the final arbiters deciding the direction in September. The market now stands at a crossroads, and CPI is the signpost determining the way.
The above is just a personal opinion! 【ENA: The most compelling yield narrative is once again in the spotlight】Secondly, the real risk is also hidden here. The more financial the machine is, the more it fears the market suddenly asking: Where does the yield come from? Who bears the risk? When the market is favorable, everyone only looks at APY, TVL, and growth curves; once the market faces headwinds, it starts scrutinizing collateral, hedging, liquidity, and extreme volatility. At this time, the more seductive the narrative, the fieSanDisk's earnings report will be released after Wednesday's market closed!
From a 37% plunge to a 27% rebound, this report could directly determine the next move for the storage market
Before the financial report, clarify the key points to watch and welcome discussion.
Let's first look at the recent trends:
On August 3, it surged 6.03%, closing at $1,288.03.
Looking back for a longer period: July 23 high of $1610.33 → July 29 low of $1015.89, maximum drawdown about 37%; It then rebounded about 27%, still about 20% below its peak.
After this round of sharp declines and rebounds, market sentiment has clearly improved, and expectations for this earnings report are not low. Growth itself is highly likely to be a consensus; the real key is whether the growth rate and subsequent guidance can support current valuations.
Last quarter, the company provided guidance for this quarter:
Revenue: $7.75 billion – $8.25 billion
Non-GAAP gross margin: 79%–81%
EPS: $30–33
I mainly focus on the following four questions:
1. How much longer can a gross margin close to 80% be maintained?
Beyond this quarter's data, it's even more important to look at next quarter's guidance. Storage is a typical cyclical industry; once the market senses signs of gross margins peaking and falling, it may accelerate the turning point of the transaction cycle.
2. What is the main driver of growth?
Is it simply a price increase, or is shipment volume + product structure improving together?
If profits are mainly driven by price increases, sustainability needs further observation; If data center demand, shipments, and the proportion of high-value products increase simultaneously, the quality of performance will be much more solid.
3. Can the data center business continue to grow rapidly?
Last quarter, data center revenue surged 233% quarter-on-quarter. This time, the focus should be on whether demand for enterprise-grade SSDs and AI data centers continues, as well as changes in the proportion of data center business in total revenue.
4. Are Edge and Consumer showing improvement?
If both directions also start to recover, it indicates that NAND shortages and price increases are spreading to a broader range of endpoints; If growth remains highly concentrated in data centers, the economic foundation will be relatively narrow.
I am still optimistic about the storage sector, but after such large price fluctuations, focusing solely on whether revenue and EPS have exceeded expectations is no longer enough.
How long high profits can be sustained, and where the real drivers of the next phase of growth lie, are the two key questions right now.🚨 Four major earnings reports are set to shape market sentiment next week—but for crypto, one stands above the rest.
Palantir, AMD, SpaceX (SPCX), and Circle (CRCL) will report earnings in succession. While the first three provide insight into AI and broader tech demand, Circle's results could offer the clearest read on institutional activity in the crypto market.
Here's what to watch:
📌 Palantir AI demand from governments and enterprises. Strong order growth would reinforce confidence in the AI sector.
📌 AMD AI chip revenue, customer demand, and capital expenditure guidance. A key indicator for the health of the AI infrastructure cycle.
📌 SpaceX (SPCX) Its first earnings report since listing, alongside a major share unlock. Watch Starlink revenue, cash burn, and Starship progress. As a high-beta growth stock, sentiment could spill over into broader risk assets.
📌 Circle (CRCL) — The Crypto Focus Q2 earnings are expected on August 5. The most important metrics include:
• USDC circulation
• Reserve income
• Distribution costs
• Progress on regulatory and trust license initiatives
With crypto revenues softening at some major platforms and USDT growth slowing, the market is asking one key question:
Are institutions leaving crypto—or simply rotating into regulated stablecoins while waiting for the next opportunity?
Possible signals:
✅ USDC supply increases: Suggests institutional capital remains active and may be positioning for future market participation.
⚠️ USDC supply declines: Could indicate tighter liquidity and a more cautious institutional environment.
Circle's earnings may not trigger an immediate market breakout, but they could provide valuable insight into the liquidity backdrop that shapes crypto's next major move.
This is my personal market view, not financial advice.
$BTC $ETH $CRCL $SPCX #DailyOrbit #Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum
#BigTechEarningsWatch #USJapanYenIntervention #CLARITYAct72Hours $XORCL rose 4.59% to $143.95, extending Oracle's stock stock surging 9.22%. Similar to the logic of PLTR earnings reports, the tokenized version, under a 7x24 hour trading mechanism, reflects post-close price movements in the US stock market in advance.
Market reconstruction: A direct reflection of the underlying stock's surge
On August 3rd, Oracle (ORCL.N) surged 9.22% in a single day, closing at $141.85, with an intraday high of $143.02, and a trading volume of 49.25 million shares, far exceeding the daily average.
The catalyst for the stock's surge was its deep collaboration with Google Gemini—on July 30, it was officially announced that Gemini AI models would be embedded into Oracle Fusion Cloud and NetSuite workflows. Combined with the Nasdaq's 2% rise and a collective strength in tech stocks, Oracle led the way with a 7.3% gain.
XORCL, as a tokenized stock on OKX (with xStocks providing 1:1 physical stock custody), saw its underlying stock rise to $142.30 after hours, and XORCL followed suit to $143.95.
Fundamentals: The Q4 earnings report has set the tone
Oracle Q4 FY2026 data is extremely strong:
Cloud Infrastructure (IaaS) +93%
Cloud Revenue (IaaS + SaaS) +47%
Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) +363% to $638 billion
Full-year revenue of $67.4 billion (+17%), GAAP EPS of $5.83 (+34%)
Management has set a FY2027 revenue target of $90 billion, with analysts' consensus target price of $248.15, representing a 73% upside from the current price.
Key price points
Resistance above:
$145-$160: Early chip concentration zone
$248.15: Analyst consensus target price
Support below:
$141.85: The closing price of the underlying stock on August 3, the first short-term support
$129.87: Closing price before the earnings report
Risk warning
1. Credit rating downgrade: S&P has downgraded Oracle's rating from BBB to BBB-, only one level above speculative rating.
2. Limited liquidity of tokenized products: XORCL's 24-hour trading volume is only about 260 tokens, and price differences may widen in extreme market conditions.
XORCL's rise is a direct transmission of the AI cloud narrative revaluation driven by the collaboration between Oracle and Google Gemini. Oracle is repricing itself from a "traditional database company" to an "AI cloud platform vendor."
Tokenized products track the underlying stock's pre- and after-hours movements more than tracking XORCL candlesticks.
$BTC $ETH
#Palantir营收增93%, up 13% in after-hours trading.
#财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale
#从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully public #特朗普家族矿企亏损仍增持BTC
This is a bit like Strategy's logic—losing money, but still buying.
ABTC posted a net loss of $57.15 million in the second quarter. It has lost money for the third consecutive quarter, losing 82 million in the first quarter. Revenue was 67.01 million, up nearly 8% from the first quarter.
But the position increased from about 7,021 coins in the first quarter to 8,002 coins, an increase of 14%. In the second quarter, he mined 932 coins himself, setting a single-quarter record. Eric Trump's response was firm: "Belief in BTC is absolute." In his eyes, this was not a loss at all, but an opportunity to stock up at a discount.
But the market was already unconvinced. ABTC's stock price has dropped more than 95% from its peak, and in July, it was forced to conduct a 1:15 reverse stock split just to barely maintain its Nasdaq listing status. On paper, it holds 8,002 BTC, worth about 512 million, but the problem is that these coins were bought at a premium. At listing, the company's valuation was pushed to 13.2 billion, but it held only 270 million BTC. It's like the market spent 13.2 billion to buy a pile of untapped coins and a Trump face.
The internal situation within the family is even more divided. Eric's 6% stake has shrunk by more than 600 million in market value, but media outlets calculated that his personal net worth actually increased by about 90 million—he bought at a low price early on and cashed out some at a high point. Retail investors suffered a total loss of about 500 million yuan.
Moreover, ABTC missed the AI transformation train. Peers like Riot, TeraWulf, and Hut 8 are all leasing computing power to AI companies, with their stock prices rising by more than 60% on average this year. ABTC is still stubbornly sticking to the old path of "mining + hoarding coins." CEO Mike Ho said, "I believe BTC's long-term compound interest will outperform capital costs," which is true, but what the market wants now is something that can withstand the current cycle.
A company propped up by the Trump family's name continues to lose money buying coins during the bear market, while retail investors keep paying for the label of "the president's son." From an investment perspective, this is no different from betting on the token price itself, just with an added celebrity filter.美国《清晰法案》本周迎来最关键的时间窗口，8月7日参议院休会前能否通过，直接决定了市场短期情绪的方向。目前最大的卡点还是参议院那60票，七位民主党议员公开反对，说白了就是在借机谈条件，共和党这边又不太可能轻易让步，所以连参议院共和党领导人图恩都放出话来，休会前通过的可能性很低。这个时间窗口一旦错过，复会要等到9月14日，后面又撞上2027年财政法案和一堆优先级更高的议题，再拖到10月中期选举，投票只会更谨慎，法案通过的概率就会被不断压缩。 眼下市场已经开始用脚投票，$BTC报在63800美元附近，涨幅只有1.7%，很明显资金还在观望。但换个角度看，法案本来就是长期改变行业环境的东西，不是决定币价基本面的核心。通过了对短期价格有刺激，不通过最多就是估值调整，$BTC的基本面没有崩，市场进入FUD阶段反而可能砸出阶段性的低点。如果美国时间8月4日之前，Warner或Gillibrand这些关键民主党人突然公开支持新版文本，那就说明60票还有戏，行情可能会快速反转；如果到周一晚上还是没动静，那这周基本可以放弃幻想了，$BTC继续承压也不意外。 #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Ci$SOL SOL liquidation shows characteristics of "extreme short-term squeeze (shorts hunted), with intensified long-short divergence in the medium to long term."
1. Ultra-short cycle (1 hour): Extreme short squeezing
Within one hour, total liquidation was $93,000**, with short positions liquidated reaching $92,900, accounting for over 99.9%, while long positions were only $109. This indicates that in the past hour, SOL saw a rapid and violent surge, leading to a large amount of short-term short funds being forcibly liquidated, dealing heavy blows to the bears.
2. Medium-short cycle (4-12 hours): Bears remain dominant
Within 4 hours and 12 hours, the liquidation amounts for short positions ($325,200 / $742,100) are about 2.35 times and 1.54 times longer than long positions. This indicates that in the past half day, the overall trend remains bullish (upward), with bearish resistance being continuously cleared, but the strength of short squeezes diminishes over time.
3. 24-hour cycle: Evenly matched bulls and bears
The total liquidation in 24 hours was $3.2665 million**, with short positions ($1.7222 million) only about 11.5% higher than long positions ($1.5443 million). This shows that if you extend the time to a whole day, both bulls and bears have actually experienced repeated struggles. Previously, (12-24 hours ago), the bulls also experienced large liquidations, but the recent sharp rally has reversed the situation.
4. Conclusions of the capital game
The volume of liquidations has increased over time in a pyramid pattern, indicating sharp price fluctuations in the short term. The extreme short liquidation in the past hour likely corresponds to SOL breaking through a key previous high resistance level. If the price holds above this level, short-term bears should be especially cautious; However, given the large base of long liquidations within 24 hours, there is also profit-taking pressure above, so caution is needed regarding the risk of a rapid pullback after a surge. #从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully public #EarningsObserver: AMD and SpaceX Reports Due Soon, Circle Closes the Show
I am Koi. Tonight marks a critical night in earnings season. AMD and SpaceX report on the same day. Palantir has already set an example with 93% revenue growth and a 12% after-hours gain. Now we see if these two can replicate the same script.
AMD, the big test for AI chip quality
AMD reports after market close tonight, with expected revenue of $11.3 billion, up 47% year-over-year. The core question is the shipment quality and gross margin level of the AI chip MI300 series. With Nvidia's H200 and B200 backlog piling up, whether AMD can carve out a bigger market share in AI chips will directly determine its stock price direction. Palantir has already validated that AI demand is materializing; if AMD can signal accelerated AI chip revenue, the entire AI hardware chain will be repriced.
SpaceX, the real test comes after the earnings
SpaceX will release its first earnings report since going public after market close the same day. The profitability and revenue growth of Starlink are the market focus. But the real test comes after the report: starting August 6, about 911.5 million shares will be unlocked, worth over $100 billion at recent prices. The founder's shares are locked until 2027, but selling pressure from early investors and employees is real. Whether the earnings can provide a clear profitability path for Starlink will determine if the unlocked shares can be absorbed.
Impact on BTC
Palantir's beat has already boosted AI-related sentiment recovery. If AMD also delivers a strong report, tech stocks will continue to rally, and BTC, as a high-beta asset, will benefit in sync. If AMD misses expectations, sentiment in the AI hardware chain will be suppressed, and BTC will face short-term pressure. SpaceX's unlocking itself has no direct impact on BTC but will transmit through overall tech stock sentiment. Optical communication and storage sectors have already rebounded first; AMD's earnings will be the next catalyst.
What to watch next
Palantir's 93% growth confirms accelerating AI demand; the market now watches if AMD can deliver the same signal. If AMD's data is strong, the storage sector short squeeze will continue. If it misses, there will be short-term profit-taking, but the fundamental AI demand remains unchanged. The earnings season logic is clear: beats lead to rises, meets lead to stability, misses lead to declines.
That's all from me. Ponder it carefully. #EarningsObserver: AMD and SpaceX Reports Due Soon, Circle Closes the Show $BTC $ETH $SNDK The market's focus these days is basically concentrated on one question:
Can the CLARITY Act still be advanced before August 5?
The current situation is actually very delicate.
Although the Republicans control the Senate, they only have 53 seats, and the bill requires 60 votes to invoke cloture and end debate.
In other words:
Support from within the Republican Party alone is not enough; at least 7 Democratic senators' support is also needed.
This is the biggest difficulty right now.
My judgment:
There is still a chance the motion will be submitted today, but it won't be very high.
The reason is simple.
If the two parties had completed substantive negotiations, usually there wouldn't be no public action until the last day.
The fact that it has not yet entered the full Senate schedule indicates that several key issues may not have been fully resolved.
Especially the controversies over stablecoin yields and regulatory jurisdiction division.
What the Democrats really care about is not "whether to support the crypto industry," but:
Whether regulatory authority is handed to the federal level or remains constrained at the state level;
And whether the stablecoin system will create new financial risks.
If these issues are not compromised, getting those last 7 votes will not be easy.
But I don't think this means the CLARITY Act is completely doomed.
More accurately:
The pace of passing this year is clearly slowing down, but there is still room for renegotiation in September.
Political bills often fail not because of content, but because of timing windows.
The current issue is not whether there are supporters, but whether both sides have enough motivation to complete the exchange before recess.
If the August window closes, after the September session resumes, the market may trade again on the expectation of:
"The bill being pushed forward again."
Regarding market impact, I think a distinction is needed.
Many people see the prediction market drop from 82% to 33% and their first reaction is:
"Regulatory negative, crypto assets will fall."
But in fact, CLARITY mostly affects:
The long-term institutional certainty of the US crypto market.
Its short-term impact on BTC is limited.
What is truly sensitive are:
US trading platforms;
On-chain financial projects;
RWA-related assets;
Some compliance narrative tokens.
Because the logic behind the rise of these assets already includes the expectation of "regulatory clarification."
If the bill fails this year, I think the market will cool down in the short term:
Funds betting on regulatory dividends may withdraw;
Some overvalued crypto projects will be revalued.
But this does not mean the entire crypto cycle is over.
After all, the core variables driving the market now remain:
Liquidity, ETF funds, institutional allocation.
My view:
The biggest observation point for CLARITY today is not whether it can be voted on in the end, but:
Whether there is a political exchange signal for the 60 votes needed.
If the motion is submitted today, the market will quickly repair expectations.
If no action continues, the probability of passing this year will further decline.
For positions, I would not drastically adjust core assets like BTC and ETH based on a single day's changes in the bill.
But for projects relying on regulatory implementation, expectations will be lowered.
Because the market ultimately rewards not "storytelling," but:
Assets that can truly survive the regulatory cycle.
The greatest significance of this CLARITY is actually not the bill itself, but in verifying:
Whether US crypto regulation is entering an era of rules or continuing to wait. $BTC Bitcoin surged intraday to a high of 64,249, challenging the resistance zone above. This rally was mainly driven by short-term short covering, and after the surge, it clearly encountered significant profit-taking pressure.
The 64,200 area has now become the first strong resistance. To continue strengthening, increased volume is necessary to hold this price level; If multiple breakthroughs fail to break through, there is a high probability of a rally and pullback.
Short-term support should focus on the 63,000 level; if it holds here, the market will remain range-bound; Once it effectively breaks below it, the pullback space will open up further.
The biggest risk right now is that the rally volume can't keep up; it's a sentiment-driven rebound, not a continuous influx of incremental funds. Never blindly chase rallies at high levels; if you push higher but don't break through, be alert to the risk of attracting long sellers and plan your stop-loss carefully. $ETH $SOL ##MSTR再卖1638枚比特币, scale halved #SPCX首份财报将公布, $100 billion unlock imminent #ISMBeatYieldsFall
Manufacturing data came in far hotter than expected on Monday. The ISM Manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.6 in July, up sharply from 53.3 in June and well above the 54.0 consensus forecast — marking the strongest reading since May 2022 and the seventh straight month of expansion. The strength ran across the board: output growth hit its fastest pace since late 2021, new orders kept climbing, and the employment index moved back into expansion territory for the first time since January 2025. Businesses front-loading orders to dodge tariff and supply-chain risks tied to Middle East tensions, plus continued AI-driven capital spending, both helped drive the surge.
Normally a beat this strong would push Treasury yields higher on inflation concerns, but yields actually fell — and the reason had little to do with manufacturing at all. The bigger market movers Monday were geopolitical: President Trump signaled that a planned strike on Iran had been called off amid progress in negotiations, and Japan and the U.S. announced a joint intervention to prop up a sliding yen. Oil retreated on the Iran news, and that combination — easing energy costs plus the currency intervention — pulled yields down even as the hard economic data pointed to a stronger, more inflationary economy. It's a reminder that yields aren't just reading domestic data right now; geopolitics and currency policy are driving the tape just as much. #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币, scale halved
MSTR sold another 1,638 BTC, halving its scale—not bearish on BTC, but Saylor admitting defeat to save itself
Strategy (MSTR) 8-K launch on August 3: 7/27–8/2, sold 1,638 BTC at an average price of $63,957, cashing out about 104.7 million; after selling, 842138 BTC remained, but the total holding cost was $75,419—this was a real cut below the cost line.
The key point is not "selling coins again," but three signals:
1) Scale halved: Last time, 3,588 coins were sold in one round at the end of June and early July; this time it's 1,638 pieces. The pace is accumulating, but not stopping. This means it's not about selling out or running away, but rather selling at what price is calculated based on "preferred stock dividends + STRC buyback" (this time, 52.4 million yuan for dividends and 52.3 million yuan for preferred stock repurchase).
2) Cost inversion still sold: BTC current price 62,000+, average position cost 75,400, each coin losing $11,000 on paper. The old slogan was "Never sell coins," but now, to maintain the 12% STRC preferred dividend yield, they first cut coins to preserve dollar reserves (which have piled up to 4 billion).
3) MSTR's Beta attributes are deteriorating: it used to be synonymous with "BTC leveraged longs," but now it has become "a finance company paying interest in BTC against the US dollar." When BTC rises, it doesn't necessarily soar proportionally; when BTC falls, people actually have to sell coins to cover the hole—many people haven't adapted to this reflexive nature.
My judgment:
In the short term, it is considered neutral and bearish—leading listed companies actively reduce holdings, even on a small scale, which will suppress the sentiment recovery caused by ETF inflows;
But don't interpret this as "institutions withdrawing from BTC"—they're selling their own high-cost old assets for US dollar reserves, and BTC pricing power has already been handed over to spot ETFs (yesterday, BTC ETFs still had net inflows of 170 million). MSTR is no longer the sole anchor; it is just the first veteran whale forced to actively manage by preferred stock interest.
Next, let's look at two things:
• After USD reserves reach 4 billion, will weekly coin sales continue (authorized cap at $1.25 billion)
• Can BTC hold steady above 62,000 to prevent MSTR from accelerating position reductions?#MSTRSells1638BTC
Michael Saylor's Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) did something it has rarely done in its Bitcoin-buying history — it sold. According to an SEC 8-K filing, the company offloaded 1,638 BTC between July 27 and August 2 at an average price of $63,957 per coin, raising about $104.7 million. That brought total holdings down to 842,138 BTC, still worth roughly $52.6 billion, though the position carries close to $10.9 billion in unrealized losses at current prices. Alongside the Bitcoin sale, Strategy also sold 3.01 million MSTR shares for $290.6 million, using the combined proceeds to fund preferred-stock dividends, buy back STRC shares, and push its USD cash reserve up to $4 billion.
The move comes right after Strategy posted an $8.33 billion operating loss for Q2, driven largely by unrealized losses on its Bitcoin treasury, and with MSTR shares down about 40% year-to-date. Analysts read this less as a retreat from Bitcoin and more as a liquidity rebalancing — the company is now leaning on multiple funding channels (share issuance, bitcoin sales, and cash reserves) to cover its expensive 12% dividend obligations on STRC preferred stock. Still, the split among Wall Street analysts tells the real story: TD Cowen kept a bullish $260 price target, while Benchmark cut its target from $570 to $435 after lowering its bitcoin price forecast — leaving investors to decide whether this is smart treasury management or an early crack in Saylor's all-in bitcoin strategy. Capital expenditure concerns for hyperscale cloud vendors were temporarily clarified during earnings season, but the semiconductor equipment sector's stock prices remained stuck at the lows seen after the July crash.
The US stock market hit new highs driven by institutional buying, but capital replenishment in the semiconductor supply chain has been extremely restrained, and equipment leader $LRCX has yet to regain lost ground.
Financial reports from Amazon and Microsoft show that revenue growth has begun to outpace capital expenditure growth, fundamentally overturning previous pessimistic assumptions about excessive computing power construction.
Since institutional funds currently prioritize cash flow into the software sector, expectations for improved performance on the device side have yet to be reflected in $LRCX's pricing.
If the AMD and SNDK earnings released this week further confirm that downstream demand has not contracted, the correction of valuation mismatches will drive a catch-up rally in the equipment sector. However, if there is a large capital outflow in the software sector, it would mean that this path has failed.
If chip giants' earnings reports fall short of expectations this week, the market's continued devaluation of the semiconductor industry will continue, possibly leading to a second bottoming out in the equipment sector—unless non-farm payroll data cools mildly to offset the decline in risk appetite.
The core of the current divergence between bulls and bears is whether the recovery in equipment orders can translate into definite earnings growth in Q3. If there are order cut rumors in the supply chain, it will directly prove the logic of catching up to the gains.
The most important variable to watch in the coming days is the changes in institutional fund positions in the semiconductor sector following AMD's earnings release.
#贝莱德推两只基金, #韩国杠杆ETF成交额降九成 dedicated to stablecoin reserves, with volatility narrowing$SNDK Review of the market trend on August 3
Yesterday, SanDisk experienced a highly exciting deep V reversal, opening lower and dropping to a low near $1121. Many thought the market would continue to weaken, but suddenly funds entered the market to buy the dip, leading to a continuous upward trend.
It ultimately closed up 6.03% at $1,288.03, with a total turnover close to $18.5 billion and a turnover rate exceeding 10%, making capital competition particularly intense.
This rally is not a single stock but a collective counterattack across the entire memory chip sector.
Global NAND flash contract prices continue to rise, AI computing power is driving increasing demand for high-speed storage, and the industry's supply-demand balance has improved, providing strong fundamental support for storage stocks.
However, it's important to note that SanDisk has retreated significantly from its previous peak, and this rebound is mostly a recovery after overselling.
Today, the storage sector saw a slight pullback before the market opened, with many profit-taking funds choosing to cash in. Short-term volatility will increase, making it difficult to immediately start a one-sided continuous surge.
#美日确认联合购汇 #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard The most dangerous trader in the afternoon session isn't the one chasing green candles or stubbornly holding bags. It's the one who took profits, then couldn't stop revenge-adding. That cycle ends badly more often than not. 🎯
BTC remains the main character. Alts only move when BTC gives them permission. Here's the roadmap:
Below 63,700 = momentum fading
Below 62,700 = leveraged longs under pressure
Losing 62,500 = liquidation risk spikes
ETH core zone: 1,620–1,650
Reclaiming 1,650 = alts can breathe again
Losing 1,620 = structure broken
Watch the majors for confirmation:
$SOL under 80 = high beta gets risky
$BNB under 580 = market pulling back
$DOGE under 0.071 = $PEPE $WIF $BONK become untouchable
Capital rotation is live: $WLD $TAO $KAITO $ZEC $HYPE $ENA
High-volatility names to respect: $GIGGLE $BEAT $LAB $RAVE $HOME $LIGHT $PEOPLE $OFC $AEVO $GRVT — expect violent swings both ways.
Before entering any position, ask yourself:
Is the move extended or fresh?
Is volume confirming price, or is this just a spike?
Does the risk-to-reward still make sense?
Taking profit is easy. Keeping it is the actual skill. Don't chase the first green candle. Don't catch a falling knife. Patience beats FOMO every single time ⏳
Not financial advice. Manage your risk tightly 📌
#DailyOrbit #30YrYieldTopOrStart #USJapanYenIntervention $BTC#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩
Strategy披露再度卖出1638枚BTC，套现约1.047亿美元，叠加前期减持，本轮卖出规模相比上一轮直接腰斩，持仓回落至842138枚BTC。
资金用途很明确：用于支付STRC优先股股息、回购股份，属于新资本框架下的经营性变现，并非恐慌式清仓。
市场现在出现两种极端声音
🔻悲观视角：“只囤不卖”神话彻底破灭。
曾经的比特币最大机构买方，转变成潜在卖方。后续只要股息压力存在，就会有持续卖出预期，长期压制BTC买盘叙事，给盘面带来持续性抛压隐患。
🔺乐观视角：属于财务层面的动态管理。
卖币只为解决内部股息负债，并没有放弃比特币储备主线。等到行情回暖，依旧会重启ATM逢低买币，短期减持不改变长期战略。
个人观点不要过度渲染恐慌，但也不能轻视叙事层面的冲击。
1、单次1638枚的量级，对84万+的总持仓来说占比很小，单次砸盘实际冲击有限。真正风险不是这一笔卖出，而是打开常态化减持的口子。
过去市场笃定MSTR是源源不断的买方；现在变成“行情不好就有可能卖币还债”，机构信仰的根基已经松动。
2、核心矛盾来自优先股高分红压力。
只要这套资本结构不变，无论币价高低，都存在持续变现的潜在动力。后续重点观察：授权卖出额度会不会继续上调、会不会暂停ATM买币计划。
如果后续停止新增买入，相当于市场少了一个最重要的现货增量来源，中长期影响远大于单次卖币。
短期更多是情绪扰动，很难直接打出大级别下跌。
但在当前存量震荡环境，少了MSTR这个标杆买盘，多头少了一个强叙事抓手。
不要盲目抄底，重点跟踪两点：
① 是否出现连续多周持续减持；
② 是否官宣暂停ATM逢低购币。 #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴
Goldman Sachs data is out: last week hedge funds bought a large amount of U.S. tech stocks, with inflows hitting the largest since December 2022 and the third largest weekly purchase volume in at least five years. Demand was strongest for companies related to software, semiconductors, and equipment, with hardware also rising. The seven giants were net bought for four consecutive days.
This is not panic buying, but targeted position building.
The logic makes sense: progress in U.S.-Iran talks caused oil prices to drop 7%, inflation expectations fell accordingly, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve, so risk assets rose first as a courtesy. Additionally, earnings reports from Microsoft, Amazon, and Google confirmed the narrative that "AI investments are turning into revenue," with capital expenditures under control and growth continuing. Hedge funds are buying not because it's "cheap," but because of "certainty."
But one detail is worth pondering—while hedge funds concentrated on buying tech stocks, what were retail investors doing? Over the past week, retail investors net sold tech stocks, especially focusing on Tesla and Apple. On one side institutions are buying, on the other retail is selling. Chips are moving from dispersed to concentrated.
Another structural observation—Palantir delivered 93% revenue growth and a 12% after-hours rise. This is no coincidence; it signals the AI software track beginning to pay off. Essentially, Palantir uses AI to help enterprises solve real problems, not "how many GPUs I have." This contrasts with Google and Tesla's AI narrative: one is "how much I invested," the other is "what I solved." Two logics, two pricing methods.
So when hedge funds concentrate on buying tech stocks, they may be buying not just "next week's rebound," but the core narrative entering Q3—AI is no longer priced solely by "computing power," but the value of software and services is gradually being recognized by the market. Palantir is just a signal; more names will validate this line going forward. As for how long the U.S. tech giants' rise can continue, the key lies in how much actual incremental revenue AI can bring these companies in the coming quarters. This question will likely be repeatedly tested in the upcoming earnings season.
$GOOGL $TSLA $QQQ #Palantir revenue up 93%, after-hours rise of 13%
I'm Cige, Palantir delivered an earnings report that silenced the bears. Revenue reached $1.94 billion, up 93% year-over-year, with a 13% after-hours increase. The full-year guidance was raised to $8.15 billion, and U.S. commercial revenue grew 149% year-over-year. The stock price had fallen 29% this year but reversed in a single day with a 93% growth earnings report.
Palantir is confirming one thing:
The real demand for AI applications is materializing, not just hype. The 149% growth in U.S. commercial revenue shows enterprises are buying AI products in bulk. The significant upward revision in guidance means demand visibility is extending. Palantir’s 13% gain set the tone for earnings season; the quarterly numbers are just the entry ticket, the guidance sets the price.
Impact on BTC:
Palantir’s beat directly boosts AI-related sentiment. If AMD delivers strong results tonight and tech stocks continue to rally, BTC, as a high-beta asset, will benefit in sync. If AMD misses expectations, sentiment may dip short-term, but the fundamental AI demand remains intact. The optical communication and storage sectors have recently led the rebound; after Palantir confirmed AI application demand, certainty around compute hardware demand will only strengthen.
What’s next:
Palantir confirmed AI application demand, AMD will validate AI chip demand tonight, SpaceX will validate Starlink’s profitability, and Circle will validate the stablecoin business model. Palantir’s 13% gain has already set an example for the market; if the others can replicate it, the entire tech sector’s sentiment will be fully restored.
Cige is done. Think it over. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Rental income, $BTC and other revaluations: Cardone Capital has put two types of "hard assets" into the same form
The latest news is that real estate investment firm Cardone Capital has newly held 350 $BTC, valued at approximately $22.3 million at the time of disclosure. CEO Grant Cardone also presented a memorable combination: 350 Class A real estate units plus 350 Bitcoins, stating that real estate prices are below replacement costs and $BTC below mining costs, and they are now waiting for the market to reprice.
Let's start with the most straightforward score.
$22.3 million divided by 350 $BTC equates to a valuation of about $63,714 per coin. For every subsequent Bitcoin fluctuation of 1%, the book value of this holding changes by about $223,000; a 10% increase or decrease corresponds to a change of about $2.23 million. For a traditional real estate investment company, this is no longer a symbolic placement tucked away in a corner, but an asset that requires separate management of volatility and liquidity.
Interestingly, this combination is not simply a case of "real estate companies starting to speculate on cryptocurrencies."
Real estate generates relatively predictable cash flow through rent, occupancy rates, and financing costs, but transactions are slow and the realization cycle is long; $BTC has no rent, yet offers global liquidity, round-the-clock trading, and a fixed issuance cap. Putting the two together is like using real estate as a cash flow foundation, and then using Bitcoin to increase asset liquidity and upside elasticity.
Of course, risks are also included at the same time.
If 350 Class A units can continue to generate rent, the company can reduce the probability of being forced to sell $BTC; However, if real estate valuations decline and refinancing costs rise, while Bitcoin experiences a significant drawdown, the two asset classes may resonate under liquidity pressure. In particular, the specific valuations, debt ratios, and cash flow data for 350 "Class A units" were not disclosed in the screenshots, so it is impossible to judge whether the real estate sector can truly cover Bitcoin volatility based on the numbers alone.
As for the phrase "$BTC below mining costs," I will take it cautiously. Miners' electricity prices, machine efficiency, depreciation methods, and regional costs differ, so there is no completely unified market-wide mining cost line. Therefore, this is more like Grant Cardone's allocation logic rather than a proven unified valuation standard.
What truly deserves attention is the follow-up moves: Is this 350 $BTC a one-time allocation, or a continued increase plan? Do the funds come from real estate cash flow, debt financing, or raised assets? Does the company set custody, stop-loss, or asset ratio caps?
If more real estate companies adopt the "rental cash flow + $BTC reserves" structure in the future, the Bitcoin treasury narrative may continue to spread from tech companies and mining firms to the traditional physical asset industry. At that time, the market was not just discussing 350 BTC, but a new balance sheet template.
This is for personal market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard #BigTechEarningsWatch This earnings season didn't just deliver numbers — it delivered a verdict on the AI spending race, and the market split Big Tech into clear winners and losers. Microsoft and Amazon came out on top, with shares jumping 16% and 10% respectively. Amazon's strength came from AWS, which grew 37% to over $200 billion in quarterly revenue, and the company doubled down by committing another $35 billion to OpenAI. Alphabet had already set the tone the week before, posting an 82% jump in Google Cloud growth — though even that report came with a catch, as management raised 2026 capex guidance toward roughly $200 billion.
On the other side, Meta and Apple got punished. Meta's margins came in weaker than expected, and its only slight bump to 2026 capex guidance wasn't enough to convince investors — the stock fell 10% despite the modest increase in spending plans. Apple and South Korea's KOSPI also dropped, down 4% and nearly 18%. The pattern across the board is clear: spending on AI is no longer enough on its own to satisfy Wall Street — companies now need to show that spending is translating into actual demand and revenue. Nvidia's report on August 26, the last of the "Magnificent Seven" to release results, is shaping up to be the season's final word on whether the AI trade still holds. Faith fades! MicroStrategy continues to sell coins, so why was the scale of this sell-off halved by #MSTR? Selling another 1,638 bitcoins, the scale was halved by $BTC
Many people focus only on the 1,638 tokens, overlooking a key clue: the scale of this round of selling has shrunk significantly compared to the previous one, signaling a subtle shift in market sentiment.
Once widely recognized within the community as the benchmark for Bitcoin belief, MSTR has long since left behind the era of "just stock, not sell." Continuous sell-offs are no longer just rumors; they have become a regular practice. This time, 1,638 BTC were sold to cover fixed dividend payments on preferred shares, which is a rigid cash flow requirement.
Let's clarify two core facts:
1. In terms of volume, 1,638 coins account for a very small proportion of total holdings, so there is no risk of concentrated liquidation. The long-term whale base position remains stable;
2. But once the precedent is set, the value of faith is irreversibly damaged. As long as STRC preferred stock continues to face dividend pressure, during periods of market pressure, selling coins for cash will repeatedly occur.
The significant reduction in the scale of this sell-off is a signal worth paying attention to.
Two types of capital interpretations are on the market:
Bearish perspective: Selling has become a regular practice. As long as the coin price continues to move sideways or decline, there will be intermittent selling, continuously providing potential selling pressure for the market; The narrative of the strongest institutional support for Bitcoin has been weakened, and the upward movement naturally adds another layer of resistance.
Bullish perspective: Selling volume halved indicates management is deliberately controlling the selling pace to avoid a stampede. He does not intend to dump at any cost; this is merely tactical cash flow management, not a bearish outlook on Bitcoin's long-term value.
The market will not go to extremes.
In the short term, news is easily borrowed by bears to create panic and trigger short-term short-term shakeouts;
In the medium to long term, everyone needs to abandon old beliefs: stop treating MSTR as a blind bullish banner. It has transformed into a dynamic asset manager, selling at high prices and increasing holdings at low levels, fully serving its own debt and capital plans.
⚠️ Key market outlook indicators:
(1) Whether the frequency of subsequent selling and the scale of single sales have expanded again;
(2) Whether Bitcoin stopped reducing holdings or resumed holdings when the Bitcoin price approached the MSTR holding cost range;
(3) Changes in the correlation between MSTR stock price and BTC.
Don't rely solely on MSTR buying and selling to judge price fluctuations. Whale movements act as emotional catalysts and cannot determine trends. The scale halving in this round means the bull-bear game has entered a balanced phase, and a one-sided rally is unlikely to start quickly in the short term, with repeated fluctuations becoming the normSouth Korea has truly gone all out this time to preserve its semiconductor crown. According to Korean media reports, for regions designated as semiconductor industry clusters, the South Korean government will use national fiscal funds to cover all costs required for building infrastructure such as electricity and water resources. These detailed rules clarify the matters authorized for enactment by the Special Semiconductor Law. The bill was passed by Congress in January this year, laying the institutional foundation for systematic support in the semiconductor supply chain. How strong is the support? According to regulations, the central and local governments must bear at least 50% of the total project cost for the construction and operation of semiconductor industry clusters, and up to 100%. In addition, the government can prioritize supporting talent recruitment and matching for semiconductor companies outside the capital region, as well as projects such as local professional talent training and job transfer training. Why is the government willing to "take full responsibility"? South Korea relies on imports for 94% of its energy, and about 72% of its crude oil comes from the Middle East—after disruptions in navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, energy costs directly impacted semiconductor manufacturing. Meanwhile, AI chip demand is experiencing a structural explosion, with SK Hynix's HBM capacity sold out ahead of schedule. Holding onto semiconductors means preserving South Korea's economic lifeline. This time, the "Special Committee for Strengthening Semiconductor Industry Competitiveness," directly under the President, manages the overall management and formulates and implements a basic plan every five years. This means that South Korea's national-level strategy in AI storage has entered a comprehensive stage of funding and operational implementation at the policy level. South Korea has raised its semiconductor infrastructure level to the level of "the nation is responsible for 100% of the total."CARDS stood out on the chart today, rising 12.86 points in 24 hours, quoted at $0.1597, with an intraday high of 0.1628 and an opening price near 0.1307. On the surface, it looks like a beautiful bullish candlestick, but a glance at OKX's real-time trading data reveals something is off: volume shows 0.0B, amplitude shows 0.0%. In technical analysis, this data is even more important to watch out for than the price itself. What does this mean? It's not that there are zero transactions, but that the token's liquidity pool is extremely shallow, and the on-chain market maker doesn't have enough order thickness, so although the price is pushed up, the actual turnover is very weak. High touched 0.1628 low opened 0.1307. The theoretical amplitude should be close to 24%, but the system cannot capture effective amplitude statistics, indicating that most price fluctuations occur in very short periods, possibly pushing prices up with just a few medium-sized buy orders. This structure of shrinking volume and rising is a typical liquidity trap in technical analysis. Comparing with ROBO next door, the situation is similar, up 11.19 points, quoted at 0.0127, with a trading volume of 0.0B. With two small-cap coins appearing at the top of the gainers' chart, market sentiment is shifting toward counterfeit gambling, which is not a good sign. SATS reported a true turnover of 75,294.1B, but it dropped by 6.35 points, with all four decimal places being zeros. The display accuracy is no longer sufficient to reflect the current price, and retail investor participation is visibly declining. Looking back at CARDS, looking only at the candlestick pattern, the stretch from 0.13 to 0.16 has almost no lower shadow. The bulls look strong, but the MACD's reference value on such low-liquidity targets is diminished. I tried to find support on OKX's depth chart. There were scattered orders around 0.14, but not as thick as the equivalent size of two BTC. Only below 0.12 did a somewhat decent buying wall appear. This means that if profit-taking emerges, 0.14 cannot be held, and real support needs to be pushed downward to the 0.12 level. The RSI is currently hovering around 72 on the 4-hour level, overbought but not extreme. The key issue is that the divergence between trading volume and price is too obvious, and the sustainability of unsupported rallies has always been poor in crypto history. Last year, many T_Gou coins experienced similar trading sessions before they finally hit zero, with prices still at new highs and trading volume shrinking to negligible value. This doesn't mean CARDS will definitely follow the same path, but given the technical structure, the risk-reward ratio is very uncomfortable. In terms of market sentiment, the Greed and Fear Index has fluctuated between 35 and 40 in recent days, still in the fear zone. However, altcoins have started to show this overwhelming agitation, indicating that the remaining short-term funds in the market are igniting and testing trading everywhere, trying to create local hotspots to attract liquidity back. This behavior usually occurs during the stalemate after a round of declines; most ignitions fail, while a few succeed can last three to five days before quickly collapsing. CARDS' rally has only lasted less than 24 hours and is still in the "takeoff" phase, but zero turnover reveals a serious lack of follow-up trading, and the main players are likely to be holding the barbell themselves. If you already hold CARDS, don't fantasize about higher potential above 0.16; liquidity is too poor, and the shipping window may be very narrow. For off-exchange traders, don't be tempted by this bullish candle. A 12-point gain on low-liquidity stocks is often just a mirage on the candlestick. When you see the price and want to buy, slippage and actual transaction prices will cost you much more than you imagine. The image is of a cluster of high-rise buildings in financial centers like New York or Hong Kong, with glass curtain walls reflecting the blue sky and the silhouette of distant mountains in the background. This scene fits well with CARDS' current market: from a distance it looks glamorous, but up close, the liquidity is hollow like those office buildings with high vacancy rates. Another map of natural scenery features a vast lake and layers of mountains, serving as a reminder to traders that most of the time, what the market needs is vision and patience, not short-term opportunities in liquidity-exhausted stocks. In the short term, CARDS is bearish, and technical indicators and volume structure do not support a trending upward trend. The medium-term trend depends on whether the 0.12 support holds; if it does, below 0.10 is the reasonable repricing range. The above analysis does not constitute investment advice; please make independent trading decisions.