Orbit Post Sitemap

Market Brief｜AI Sector Earnings Breakdown: Hardware Orders Full, Software Growth Begins to Materialize Market Overview Earnings divergence among three AI industry chain companies: 1. Dell: Raised full-year revenue and AI server guidance. AI server orders exceeded 130 billion in the past 12 months, with backlog orders at 95 billion. Computing infrastructure orders continue to accumulate, maintaining high hardware market sentiment. 2. Broadcom: Q3 revenue and profit greatly exceeded expectations, AI semiconductor revenue reached 16.7 billion, up 221% year-over-year, accounting for 56% of total revenue; however, Q4 revenue guidance was slightly below market expectations, leading to a sell-off after hours. The conference call provided a high long-term outlook: full-year AI revenue was raised, AI revenue expected to double in fiscal 2027 and double again in fiscal 2028. Google, OpenAI, and Meta are all increasing investments in custom chips, supporting the stock price narrative in the long term. 3. Snowflake: Revenue of 1.55 billion, up 35% year-over-year, exceeding expectations. Product revenue growth accelerated, full-year guidance raised, with after-hours gains exceeding 20%, representing accelerated realization of AI software revenue. Overall phenomenon: Hardware orders remain strong, AI software revenue officially entering an acceleration phase; Broadcom shows a typical pattern of "short-term guidance below expectations causing initial sell-off, followed by long-term high growth narrative pulling back the stock." Market Logic 1. Hardware side: Major companies' capital expenditures are still being released, server and custom chip orders are backlogged, and the AI hardware cycle has not quickly cooled down. 1. The US added 162,000 non-farm jobs in August, far exceeding the market's previous expectation of about 56,000; meanwhile, the year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wages rose to 3.1%, also slightly above expectations. In addition, the originally reported job losses in July were revised up to an increase of 21,000, further confirming the strong resilience of the labor market. 2. Transmission logic: Fed's September rate hike expectations surge Before the data release, the market generally expected the Fed to keep rates unchanged or even cut in September due to dovish remarks from Fed officials and weak ADP data, and the crypto market had already accumulated a large amount of long profit-taking positions. However, tonight's employment data, far exceeding expectations, completely reversed this narrative. Strong economic fundamentals and wage growth led the market to quickly reprice, with traders significantly increasing their bets on a Fed rate hike in September $BTC $ETH The CME's September rate hike expectation probability has currently rebounded by eight points to 58.1%, and it is estimated to eventually rebound to around 60%. Breaking it down, among the 162,000 new jobs added today, 59,000 were in catering and 40,000 in local government education. If these two categories are excluded, the data wouldn't seem so outrageous. The so-called art of data manipulation is to tweak figures within areas you control, so no one can really argue. However, the July data was revised from a negative 23,000 to a positive 21,000, completely overturning last month's data. This means the previous premise that rate hikes couldn't happen due to poor employment in June and July has been overturned. This kind of data basically follows the script I previously expected for managing expectations, meaning yesterday's hints from Waller were actually coordinated with Wash. Moreover, due to the renewed rise in rate hike expectations, gold and U.S. stocks both fell, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield first rose then fell. According to the previous script, after next week's CPI release, the probability of a September rate hike will continue to rebound above 70%, ultimately leading to a high-probability meeting and a rate hike, which the market will accept more smoothly.The US August seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls recorded 162,000, the highest since March, far exceeding the market expectation of 56,000, with the previous value revised up from -23,000 to +21,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%. In addition, June and July data were revised up by a total of 55,000. This is a comprehensive employment report that exceeded expectations—not only did the current data far surpass expectations, but previous data were also significantly revised upward, indicating that the US labor market is much stronger than the market had previously anticipated. After the nonfarm data release, Bitcoin plunged 2,000 points from around 81,200; within less than an hour after the data release, over $200 million in liquidations occurred across the network, with long positions liquidated as high as $186 million. Currently, the price has fallen below the lower Bollinger Band, and 80,000 has become an important psychological level. If it cannot be recovered in the short term, it may further test the previous low near 78,400 Did $BTC $ETH $SOL go crazy? Up or down?? The August non-farm payroll data was just released, showing an increase of 162,000 jobs, significantly higher than the expected 56,000, which is 2.9 times the forecast; private sector job additions also far exceeded expectations. This data contrast is huge, breaking the view of a continuously weakening job market. Earlier, the ADP private employment data was weak, and the market generally predicted a weak non-farm report, but July's job openings rose and layoffs decreased, actually signaling a strengthening job market that was overlooked by the market. This strong data will increase the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in September. After the ADP release, the market estimated a 62.2% chance of a 25 basis point hike, and this probability will continue to rise after the non-farm data. However, a single employment report cannot set the tone directly; next week's August CPI inflation data is another key factor for Fed policy.This is a combination of moves; you'll understand when you review: In August, first the negative non-farm payroll data of -23,000 was released, then the CPI inflation was low, but the market didn't really rise, fluctuating around 1900. Finally, the US Treasury conducted bond buybacks, which triggered a sharp surge, squeezing shorts in various ways. This September will also be a combination of moves, but it might not be the US Treasury this time; instead, it will be non-farm payrolls, then inflation, followed by rate hikes from the Fed and Japan.Market Brief: Intense Bull-Bear Divergence at BTC 83,000 Level Market Overview BTC has reclaimed the $80,000 mark, but the market has not reached a unified expectation; 83,000 has become the current critical dividing line between survival and decline. - Bearish View: Whales are liquidating near 82,050, believing that 13 days of consolidation is insufficient to strongly break through 83,000–84,000, predicting a pullback to 70,000–72,000. - Neutral View: 76,300 serves as key support, with real strong resistance at 86,000. - Bullish View: Seen as the last entry window, targeting 100,000. Capital Flow Shows Clear Split: Whales have sold 167,900 ETH over 5 days, cashing out over $400 million; meanwhile, institution Strive holds up to $1.4 billion in potential funds ready to increase BTC positions. ETF channels for institutions are mature but capital is highly concentrated; market risk appetite is warming, with incremental funds more inclined toward short-term speculation. Market Logic Near key resistance levels, large holders and institutions are taking completely opposite actions, indicating no consensus here. On one side, whales are cashing out and exiting; on the other, institutions are reserving funds waiting to buy. Both bulls and bears have real capital backing their positions, so one should not rely solely on one side's viewpoint. The growing ETF scale represents increased institutional participation, but concentrated capital also amplifies market volatility; current incremental funds favor short-term trading, indicating a market driven by speculative play rather than pure long-term allocation. Yesterday's upward momentum has indeed been realized. $BTC → Breaks previous highs, reaching a high of about $82.1K $ETH → rebounds near $2.5K $DOGE → Buying is warming up and starting to rebound with the market. But the real test is not just price, but macroeconomic data. 📊 In August, the US NFP added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding the market expectation of 56,000, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%. Strong employment data may cool Fed rate cut expectations again, and BTC fell below $80K in the short term after the data release. This means: → data is weak: Rate cut expectations are heating up, and risk assets may find support. → Data is strong: US dollar and US Treasury yields may rise, increasing short-term profit-taking pressure. → Data as expected: The market may continue to follow its current trend, but volatility will continue to expand. My new focus range: $BTC → $79K–$81K $ETH → $2,420–$2,480 $DOGE → $0.19–$0.21 The rebound has already happened; the next step is to see if it can hold steady. Don't chase the news to buy, nor change direction just because of a single bearish candlestick. Let the data confirm it, let the price confirm 🎯 #BTC #ETH #DOGE #Crypto #NFPStill waiting for a pullback? The current adjustment might be the entry window you've been waiting for. 👀 My view is simple: pressure on the bond market doesn't necessarily mean selling BTC; it could actually be a reason to focus on BTC. The breakout in August was not accidental. As long-term Treasury yields continue to rise, the market is beginning to focus on possible measures by the U.S. Treasury to stabilize the bond market. On August 19, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchases, planning to conduct at least $4 billion in related operations starting September 9. The market views this as liquidity support similar to an "Operation Twist," but this does not equate to QE; whether it can continue to push long-term yields down remains to be seen. Latest developments: 📉 Long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and pressure on the global bond market has yet to fully ease. 🏦 The Treasury is expanding its repurchase scale in an attempt to improve long-term bond liquidity. 📈 Waller's dovish remarks briefly eased interest rate hike concerns, and BTC rebounded to about $81.4K. ⚠️ But high inflation, fiscal deficits, and geopolitical risks could still cause the market to enter another volatile phase. Therefore, I won't easily change the long-term logic just because of a short-term pullback. If the bond market continues to be under pressure, policies may introduce more stabilization measures. And when liquidity improves again, BTC may once again become a focus of capital. Of course, this doesn't mean BTC will definitely rise. If yields continue to surge and liquidity worsens, risk assets may still face greater pressure.Stay calm! Stay calm! Just take a look at the nonfarm payroll data! #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 August nonfarm payrolls far exceeded expectations, with a forecast of 55,000, previous value -23,000, actual 162,000. BTC dropped in response. Brother Feng just said that the U.S. is in a midterm election market, aiming to create prosperity. So nonfarm payrolls definitely can't be low. Don't forget the downward trend in ADP's small nonfarm data. The nonfarm data will likely be revised downward later. Unemployment rate unchanged, labor force participation increased. Same logic, all for the sake of "prosperity." On the contrary, wage data is not very favorable; the annual wage rate exceeded expectations, the monthly rate met expectations but was ahead of the previous value. This is not very good for CPI. But for "prosperity," it is guessed that August's CPI won't be bad either. The Fed will not raise rates just because of August's employment data. Don't forget, Waller's speech last night said that the decision to support a rate hike depends on August's CPI data, and he didn't mention nonfarm payrolls at all!← # Urgent Market Update 🤬 > 📉 Broad decline — Basket average -3.0% (1h) 8/8 coins moving in the same direction·$← # -B- Urgent Market Update 🤬 > 📉 Broad decline — Basket average -3.0% (1h) 8/8 coins moving in the same direction·BTC -2.5% ◽ Specific event-driven (Confidence level: medium) ✅ Confirmed (OpenClue verified) · Macro data release timing matches: The US August nonfarm payroll data was released about 20 minutes before this decline, timing aligns · Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour for the basket: Approximately $14.26 million liquidated in the past hour, of which 98.5% (about $14.05 million) were long positions forcibly closed, totaling 1,514 liquidations · BTC/ETH open interest and basis changes: BTC open interest (total contracts not yet closed) rose 1.5% in 24 hours, basis (futures vs spot price difference) turned more negative; ETH open interest fell 1.19%, basis also turned more negative · US stock futures (spot market closed): S&P futures down 0.18%, Nasdaq futures up 0.12%, but the US spot market was closed, so these quotes do not reflect real-time reactions to this crypto decline · Stablecoin peg status: DAI stablecoin reported at $0.9998, deviating only 2 basis points from peg, within normal range, not caused by stablecoin depeg 📰 Possible catalysts (reported but not independently confirmed) · August nonfarm payroll data exceeded expectations, showing a still strong labor market, raising market expectations for continued Fed rate hikes, Bitcoin fell below $80,000 — Barron's / OpenClue news monitor 🧭 Assessment The 8 tracked coins fell synchronously within 1 hour (average drop 2.98%), during which a chain of forced liquidations mainly on long positions occurred ($14.26 million liquidated, of which $14.05 million were longs, accounting for 98.5%). BTC and ETH futures basis further turned negative; stablecoin peg was normal, and the US spot market was closed at the time, so minor futures fluctuations cannot serve as real-time verification. The timing of this decline coincides with the release of the US August nonfarm payroll data, which Barron's reported as exceeding expectations and raising rate hike expectations. This is a reasonable macro trigger but has not yet been fully independently confirmed as the decisive cause. From the capital flow perspective, this decline was mainly caused by forced liquidation of long positions, not a short squeeze. $🚨 Bitcoin watchers, the pullback you've been waiting for is here!👀 Have you been waiting for a $BTC pullback? This might be your chance. My view has always been clear: 📉 When the bond market falls, it doesn't necessarily mean you should sell Bitcoin. Instead, you should think— Why are bonds falling? One of the key catalysts behind $BTC's upward breakout in August was the pressure in the bond market forcing Bessent to take action, or at least start signaling policies to control the yield curve. Also, Operation Twist is never a one-day event. If the bond market continues to be under pressure, Bessent may continue to take measures to stabilize the yield curve. 💰 And this could mean more liquidity support for risk assets, especially $BTC. So the question now isn't: "BTC pulled back, should I run?" But rather: 👀 Could this pullback actually provide a better entry point for BTC's next rally? #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #TradingNonfarm payrolls surged by 160,000, completely shattering rate cut expectations At 8:30 tonight, when this nonfarm data was released, many bullish traders probably felt a chill down their spine. The market had generally expected only 56,000 jobs added, and the previous ADP report was a meager 38,000, with almost everyone prematurely celebrating a dovish Fed. Instead, the big nonfarm report dropped a bombshell of 162,000, nearly three times the expectation, and last month's negative 23,000 was sharply revised up to a positive 21,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, showing no sign of recession. The bulls who had pushed Bitcoin up to $81,000 on Waller's dovish remarks suddenly hit a brick wall. The job market not only didn’t collapse but showed strong resilience, directly boosting the Fed’s hawkish confidence. The roughly 50-50 chance of a rate hike in September is now visibly rising, and the fantasy of rate cuts has been shattered on the spot. The US dollar and Treasury yields rose in response, and the already thin liquidity in crypto markets immediately felt suffocated. Tonight’s big bullish candle is a shot in the arm for the US economy but a cold splash of water for risk assets. Those who rushed to bet on dovishness before the data release are now paying for their excessive optimism. Strong nonfarm data crushes easing expectations—can Bitcoin hold the $80,000 level tonight against this macro shock? --- The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA. #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Opening a position feels like being watched; setting stop-losses gets hit, not setting one is a deep trap, the more you buy and the more you get addicted—these past few days, you're really not alone. $USELESS Two days of 0.1→0.28 is pure sentiment driven by Bonk Guy's call + short blowout, no fundamentals. One cut is pure meme fantasy—don't try to fight it. A long ETH 2400 long position had a 15-point stop loss swept away, and tonight it reversed to 2510+—it was indeed a sweep loss; But that's the cost of the rule, not your fault. BTC 80,000 long position without stop-loss and holding back to 82,000, taking profits with a pending order is luck, not system; BTC is currently oscillating around 81,000, 100,000 is not unwatchable, but strong resistance at 82,793 + upper shadow exhaustion, Polymarket gives about a 32% probability of reaching 100,000, a good outlook, don't take luck as ability. Small positions → add resistance positions, creating a loss spiral. Stop trading for two days, only trade BTC/ETH, keep 1-2% risk, and extend stop-losses to avoid volatility. USELESS is useful, but you are not useless either; you just need to curb your gambling habits. #8月非农16 2,000 far exceeds expectations, interest rate bets heat up#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位 Can the strong trend continue? $USELESS Robinhood Chain’s on-chain activity has exploded, with DEX volume recently reaching around $1.5B+ and TVL moving above $750M. Daily fees even reached roughly $3.75M during the recent activity spike. That’s why the market suddenly started paying more attention to Arbitrum’s revenue story. But there’s an important distinction: Robinhood Chain generating fees ≠ ARB holders directly receiving those fees. There are several layers between ecosystem activity and token value: Robinhood Chain generates fThe non-farm payrolls not only landed but also directly poured cold water: US August added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding the consensus of 56,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%; BTC immediately fell back below 80,000, and the 10-year US Treasury yield pulled back to 4.80%. This data closed the "dovish crack" that Waller opened last night. Previously, Waller said "tending to hold steady in September," with the probability of a rate hike dropping from 63% to 50%, and BTC rebounded from 77,000 to 82,000 — but that was based on the assumption of "moderate weakening in employment." The strong data of 162,000 once again proves the economy can withstand rate hikes, and the market's pricing for a September hike immediately reversed. There are three implications for the crypto circle: 1. The rebound last night is downgraded: from "macro recovery + short squeeze" to "a pullback after a premature rally." The 24h short liquidation of 415 million that drove the rise is now being taken over by the bulls. 2. The 80,000 defense battle reignites: 80,000 turns from support to battleground; if lost, look for a retest zone at 77,000–78,500; if it recovers above 80,000 within 24h and ETF inflows continue, the rebound structure can be maintained. 3. The real verdict is next Friday's CPI: strong non-farm + high oil prices; if CPI exceeds expectations again, a September rate hike is almost certain, and BTC will test 75,000–76,000; if CPI cools down, the market can still tell the story of "single-month employment fluctuations." ⚠️ Now is not the time to bottom-fish. The hawkish pricing after non-farm has not been fully digested; chasing longs = taking over stop-loss positions. Wait for clarity on the 80,000 level or after CPI lands before making a move; anything in between is just itchy fingers tax.Robinhood Chain's recent data is becoming increasingly interesting. Less than two months after mainnet launch, on-chain DEX trading volume has already exceeded $1.5B/day, and TVL has surpassed $750M. On September 1, there was even a single-day fee peak of about $3.75M. This is why the market suddenly began to re-discuss ARB's revenue logic. But here's the most common misconception: Robinhood Chain earns more≠ ARB tokens earn more directly. There are actually several layers in between: Robinhood Chain generates revenue ↓ Income is distributed according to Arbitrum's relevant permission/scaling mechanisms ↓ Some funds enter Arbitrum DAO and related ecosystems ↓ Finally, the market judges whether this income actually matters to ARB's valuation. Data released by Arbitrum DAO shows that revenue in the first half of 2026 will be about $6.19M, with Robinhood Chain's contribution in the first month after launch around $360K, accounting for about 35% of DAO revenue that month. This figure is actually more worth studying than simply looking at ARB prices. Because if, in the future, it's not just Robinhood but more and more projects choose to use the Arbitrum technology stack, Arbitrum's business model may change: Previously: attracting users themselves→ generating their own transactions → earning income themselves, if expansion plans continueBTC hits a three-month high, ETH returns to 2500: Who's driving this wave? BTC surged overnight to about $82,200, the highest since May; ETH also climbed back near $2500. The most obvious change in this rally is not some sudden big Crypto news, but a rapid easing of macroeconomic pressure. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if inflation continues to cool, he leans toward no rate hike in September. The market immediately lowered the probability of a September rate hike from about 63% to around 50%, U.S. Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and risk assets rebounded together. But Crypto itself also has real buying demand. The U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $731 million on September 3, the highest since mid-January, with BlackRock IBIT attracting about $454 million; ETH ETFs also saw a net inflow of about $141 million on the same day. At the same time, this wave also includes obvious short squeezes. After BTC quickly broke through $80,000, the market saw over $400 million in Crypto short liquidations, so the entire price increase cannot be understood as "new money blindly chasing highs." The next two levels are very important. For BTC, watch around $82,800 above, near the May high and key technical resistance; only a solid break here will open the chance to push toward $90,000. For ETH, watch $2530–$2570 first; after breaking the late August high, the structure can be considered further strengthened.$CL What if the non-farm payrolls exceed expectations? The logic for shorting crude oil has never relied on just one employment report. Tonight, the non-farm payroll data was released, showing results stronger than market expectations — the number of new jobs exceeded forecasts, and the unemployment rate remained low or may decline further. For most risk assets, this is proof of "economic resilience," but for crude oil, this might be exactly the scenario shorts prefer: it gives oil prices a reason for a short-term rebound but does not change the overarching trend of oversupply. Every such rebound provides shorts with a better entry point. 1. The initial reaction to stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls: a stronger dollar and oil prices spike then fall back With stronger-than-expected non-farm data, the most direct market reaction is a short-term rise in the US dollar index and higher US Treasury yields, reducing bets on a near-term Fed rate cut. For crude oil, a stronger dollar is inherently bearish — since oil is priced in dollars, a stronger dollar reduces the purchasing power of non-US buyers, putting downward pressure on prices. Therefore, we are likely to see this scenario: after the data release, oil prices may briefly spike (due to the intuition that "strong economy = strong demand"), but will soon be suppressed by the stronger dollar and high interest rate expectations, causing prices to fall back. This "buy the news, sell the fact" pattern is especially common in an oversupplied market environment. 2. The real question: does a strong economy necessarily mean strong demand? The market likes to equate "strong employment" directly with "strong crude oil demand," but this logic chain is increasingly fragile today. First, the strength in the US labor market mainly comes from the service sector and government, both of which consume diesel and crude oil much less directly than manufacturing and freight sectors. Manufacturing PMI remains weak, and industrial oil demand continues to shrink. Good employment data cannot mask the weakness in high energy-consuming sectors of the real economy. Second, the longer high interest rates persist, the more they suppress real estate, manufacturing, and capital expenditures. Stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls mean the Fed has no incentive to cut rates quickly; the high-rate environment will continue to suppress economic activity and thus crude oil demand. In other words, the stronger the non-farm data, the further away rate cuts are, and the weaker the demand. This is the deeper logic behind non-farm payrolls being bearish for oil prices. 3. Certainty on the supply side: OPEC+ production increases and shale oil running at high levels No matter how strong the employment data is, it cannot change the supply-side facts: OPEC+ is gradually restoring production, some members are overproducing to get ahead, US shale oil production remains at historic highs, and Canada, Brazil, and Guyana continue to increase output. The global supply floodgates are open and will not close anytime soon. In this supply structure, any rebound in oil prices triggered by macro sentiment will be quickly extinguished by ample supply. The brief demand optimism brought by stronger-than-expected non-farm data is just a small wave in a selling flood. 4. Technical perspective: rebounds are opportunities for shorts From the daily chart, WTI crude oil struggles repeatedly below $70, with the 20-day moving average pressing downward and highs progressively lower. Brent faces strong resistance around $73-$74. The monthly spread has turned into a futures premium, a classic signal of oversupply. If stronger-than-expected non-farm data triggers a rebound to key resistance levels — $70 for WTI and $73-$74 for Brent — these will be excellent shorting points. Stop losses should be set above resistance, with targets down to $65 or even lower. The technical structure already provides a clear direction; the non-farm data only offers the timing to enter. 5. Risks and responses The main risks to shorting crude oil still come from sudden supply disruptions: escalation of Middle East geopolitical conflicts, unexpected additional production cuts announced by OPEC+, or significant US shale production cuts due to cost issues. These events could trigger short squeezes in the short term, so strict position sizing and stop-loss discipline are essential. But currently, these risks are manageable. OPEC+ has a strong incentive to increase production, Middle East tensions, while tense, have not yet affected actual supply, and shale oil companies still have profit margins at current prices. Conclusion: Non-farm data is a subplot; the trend is the main theme Stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls give bulls a brief story but cannot change the mid-term trend of crude oil market oversupply and weak demand. When the dollar strengthens, rate cuts are delayed, manufacturing is weak, inventories accumulate, and spreads show a premium, all clues point in the same direction. Every rebound in oil prices is a gift patiently awaited by shorts. Tonight, let the data bring volatility and let the trend decide the direction. And that direction has never changed from the past few months until today. #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ I am the mid-term intelligence guy. This wave of BTC to gold ratio surged to 18.17, the highest since January. One BTC can exchange for 18 ounces of gold, which sounds impressive, but let's not get carried away. The drivers are clear: cooling rate hike expectations + weakening dollar + global debt panic, funds treat BTC as "amplified gold" for speculation, and ETFs have also seen some inflows. In the mid-term, I see a bias toward strong oscillation, with a 50-50 chance of continuation—if the digital gold attribute is to be confirmed, it depends on the Fed's show on September 16, with rates going down, a soft dollar, and fiscal panic not easing; the ratio can still ride along. But the 90-day correlation between $BTC and $XAU just soared to the highest level since 2020. Such synchronization tends to loosen easily; once bonds stabilize and risk appetite returns to tech stocks, BTC relative to gold will have to give some back. Operationally, if the 18 level holds, I’m half convinced; if it drops back to 16–17, it’s a hard no-chase zone. Hold mid-term positions, and if it breaks through, look at the historical triangle targets of 22–26. In a word: the strength is real, but don’t treat "outperforming gold" as a one-way perpetual motion. #7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？ Robinhood chain suspected downtime, new block generation paused for over 4 minutes On September 4, on-chain information showed that the Robinhood chain experienced suspected downtime, with new block generation paused for more than 4 minutes. During this period, on-chain transactions could not be confirmed in a timely manner, and related activities were briefly interrupted. Currently, the incident is still marked as suspected, and the recovery status and specific causes on-chain require further confirmation. Mechanistically, blockchain networks rely on continuous block production to package transactions, update ledger states, and maintain final confirmation. Once block production stops, users' transfers, transactions, and on-chain application operations will be in an unconfirmed frozen state. The Robinhood chain is positioned as infrastructure that brings stock trading and asset issuance on-chain, with stability and continuity as its core selling points supporting 24/7 uninterrupted trading narratives. Therefore, even a block production interruption of just a few minutes can easily be magnified by the market as a question of infrastructure reliability. However, it should be viewed objectively that this interruption was short, and brief block production pauses are not uncommon in industry history, usually related to sequencer failures, node upgrades, or emergency maintenance. If it is a one-time incident and the chain recovers quickly, the actual loss is limited; but if downtime recurs or the duration significantly lengthens, it will undermine user and institutional partner confidence in its on-chain trading products and weaken its competitiveness relative to other compliant on-chain trading platforms. As of now, whether there has been an official response, the root cause of the downtime, and whether full recovery has been achieved still require further verification through on-chain data and official announcements.Non-farm payroll data far exceeded market expectations, directly triggering a decline in the crypto market. · 📊 How much the data "exceeded expectations": August non-farm payrolls increased by 162,000, far surpassing the expected 56,000, marking the highest since March. Meanwhile, June and July data were revised upward by a total of 55,000, completely reversing the "negative growth" trend of July. · 💔 Why the drop: Strong employment data means the economy is still overheating, giving the Federal Reserve confidence to continue raising interest rates. After the data release, market expectations for a September rate hike surged sharply, causing U.S. Treasury yields to soar, directly suppressing valuations of risk assets like Bitcoin. Over $200 million in liquidations occurred across the network in the past hour, with long positions liquidated at $186 million. This is a typical "Good News is Bad News" logic. The macro outlook turns hawkish in the short term, but ZEC remains strong. It is recommended to continue the "buy the dip" strategy, placing long orders around 965-970 for more stability. US August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, while the market expected only about 55,000, nearly three times higher than expected; the unemployment rate remained at 4.1% Looking at this data alone, it is actually short-term bearish for BTC The reason is straightforward: Nonfarm payrolls far exceeded expectations → US employment is stronger than the market imagined → The Federal Reserve has no need to rush to cut interest rates → Expectations for rate cuts cool down → US Treasury yields and the dollar face upward pressure → BTC faces short-term pressure However, 162,000 looks strong, but in this year's employment environment, it is not super strong employment data The market previously expected only 55K, largely because July's employment data was very weak, so this looks more like a clear rebound rather than employment re-entering a high growth cycle What the market is really focusing on now is whether inflation data can continue to cool before the Federal Reserve meeting on September 16 So BTC standing above $80,000: relatively strong Breaking below $80,000: short-term weakness If after the data release the dollar and US Treasury yields continue to rise, and BTC fails to hold $80,000, then this nonfarm payrolls report could become a catalyst for a short-term pullback So the most critical thing now is whether BTC can hold $80,000 The next truly critical data is the US CPI on September 11, which is more likely to determine how the rate cut expectations for September will ultimately go $BTC #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 August Nonfarm Payrolls at 162,000 Far Exceed Expectations, Rate Hike Bets Reheat On Friday, the Nonfarm Payrolls report delivered a completely different answer than the market anticipated. The U.S. added 162,000 jobs in August, far surpassing the previous market expectation of about 55,000–65,000; July employment was also revised up from -23,000 to +21,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. Simply put: Employment is not as weak as the market imagined; instead, there was a clear rebound. What does this mean for the Federal Reserve? It's simple— The confidence to raise rates is back. Previously, the market's main logic was: Cooling employment → Fed has no need to tighten policy further. But now Nonfarm Payrolls send a reverse signal: Employment rebound + stable unemployment → U.S. economy still resilient → Fed can continue focusing on inflation. This is why after the Nonfarm release, U.S. Treasury yields quickly rose, and the market increased the probability of a September rate hike. The latest market pricing shows the September rate hike probability has returned to around 60%. For BTC, this logic is very straightforward: Nonfarm beats expectations → rate hike expectations ↑ → U.S. Treasury yields ↑ → U.S. dollar gains support → liquidity expectations tighten → BTC faces short-term pressure. So we saw BTC briefly surge above $82,000 but quickly fell back after the Nonfarm release, dropping below the $80,000 mark again. But here is a very critical point: Strong Nonfarm does not necessarily mean a September rate hike. Because earlier, Waller made the conditions very clear: August inflation is the key variable determining September policy. So now the market script has actually become: First card: Nonfarm Already played. And clearly hawkish. 162,000 vs. expected about 55,000, much stronger than market imagined. Second card: August CPI This is the final deciding card. If CPI continues to cool: Strong Nonfarm + cooling CPI The Fed may still choose to hold steady. But if: Strong Nonfarm + CPI heats up again Then trouble arises. This would form a very strong hawkish combination: Strong employment → strong inflation → increased necessity for rate hikes. At that time, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may strengthen further, putting greater pressure on BTC, gold, and high-valuation risk assets. Conversely, if: Employment is strong, but CPI clearly declines The market might reprice the "economy is resilient, but inflation is falling" golden combination. In this case, risk assets might not necessarily be pessimistic. So don’t just shout "BTC will fall" upon seeing 162,000. What really matters is: Nonfarm has pushed rate hike expectations higher again, but can CPI push those expectations back down? This is the biggest macro battle in the next two weeks. In short: August Nonfarm at 162,000 far exceeds expectations, meaning the Fed has regained confidence to "raise rates"; but how the September FOMC ultimately moves depends on whether August CPI continues to cool. BTC faces short-term pressure, but the real big picture still depends on inflation. $BTC #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 ADP gave an early hint, with private sector employment in August increasing by only 38,000, the weakest since the start of this year. The Beige Book also added that 10 out of 12 districts described conditions as "moderate," with hiring clearly slowing down. The numbers are cooling off, yet CME's probability of a September rate hike remains stuck at 62.3%. On the other hand, inflation hasn't backed down; core PCE stays at 3.3%, with 54% of 178 subcomponents rising over 3% year-over-year, compared to 47% a year ago. Employment is cooling, prices are holding firm, pulling the market in opposite directions, making it hard to confidently bet on either side. Nonfarm payroll expectations are now quite scattered. Reuters surveys expect 58,000, Deutsche Bank sees 65,000, while Wells Fargo and NBC target 80,000, a difference of over 20,000. With expectations so spread out, the data release is likely to cause big swings whichever way it falls. If nonfarm payrolls fall below 58,000, rate hike expectations will basically be extinguished, and BTC could bounce, trying to reach 80,000. But if it rises above 80,000, a rate hike is basically confirmed, and BTC will remain under pressure, first testing if 75,000 holds; if not, then down to 72,000. Don't bet before the data; wait for the release to see how to react. The big picture hasn't changed, only the pace. #FOMC last data set before Friday this weekInstead of the roughly 55K–56K jobs economists were expecting, nonfarm payrolls jumped by 162K. That is almost 3x the consensus forecast. Even more interesting: July was revised from the previously reported -23K to a +21K gain. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. So the “U.S. labor market is rapidly deteriorating” narrative suddenly looks much less convincing. The private sector also showed resilience, while the previous ADP report had pointed toward only 38K private-sector jobs in August. TAt 3 a.m., I was still watching the TRUMP market. That kind of bearish drop was even more troubling than a crash—like a frog in warm water—you know it's not bottomed out, but you keep fantasizing about a rebound at any moment. Does this trend remind you of LAB and BEAT? Both are one-sided declines, the rebound is weak, and buying is squeezing out bit by bit, unable to support the price. I often think not every coin has the same fate. HYPE has a strong narrative backing it, ZEC has its own burn and buyback story, but what about RUMP's narrative? After the hype fades, what's left? Let's review what happened. I shorted around $3 with a 0.1 position, not a heavy position, because you can never predict the volatility of this coin. But what really alerted me wasn't my short profits, but the buying force below. - The buy wall at the market is very thin; large orders fall directly through with almost no real resistance. - Each rebound high drops lower than the last, indicating that bottom-fishers are losing money each time, with chips continuously rotating into the hands of more determined holders. - Trading volume has not significantly increased, indicating no panic has emerged; the real bottom is often confirmed only after a drop in volume. So what is the market actually trading? What is trading is the fading of attention. TRUMP's rally itself was a narrative-driven meme-like rise; once social heat and attention decline, liquidity naturally drains away. This is especially fatal for BTC because they do not have institutional allocation needs like BTC, nor do ETH have real ecosystem consumption. $BTC Although the non-farm payroll data was particularly good, the probability of a rate hike in September is now about fifty-fifty, it didn't go up because: 1. Fed Governor Waller signaled dovishness early, saying "no change in September barring surprises," which suppressed rate hike expectations. 2. The market is waiting for next week's CPI (inflation data), which is the real key to deciding whether to raise rates; non-farm payrolls are just the appetizer. So now it's 50% vs 50% September 11 (next Friday) — US August CPI data release. · If CPI exceeds expectations (persistent inflation) → rate hike probability could jump from 50% to over 70% · If CPI meets or falls below expectations (cooling inflation) → rate hike probability could fall below 50%, making no rate change in September the baseline scenario#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Direct conclusion: The non-farm payroll data far exceeded expectations, with an expected increase of only 53,000 jobs, but the actual release was 162,000 jobs. The employment data for the previous two months was also revised upward by 55,000. Employment data greatly surpassed market expectations, pushing back rate cut expectations significantly. Theoretically, this is bearish for the crypto market, but the market is still holding up. The Fear and Greed Index is now at 74, already in the greed zone. In the last 24 hours of liquidations, longs were liquidated for 415 million, clearly more long positions were liquidated. Looking at the liquidation map, there are 17.2 billion long positions waiting to be liquidated above, which is much more pressure than shorts, with a large accumulation of long position explosives above. BTC has stabilized above 79,580, ETH is slightly stronger, and SOL is almost unchanged. The bearish news did not directly crash the market, but that does not mean the risk has disappeared. The market is currently digesting the bearish news temporarily, but the reality that high interest rates need to be maintained longer has not changed. The index is greedy now, with a large number of long positions waiting to be harvested above. Do not blindly chase highs. Leverage must be controlled; do not think that no drop on bearish news means strength. The upcoming CPI will be the real test. Once inflation rebounds, the accumulated long positions could easily trigger a concentrated stampede. Stay cautious and avoid heavy bets on one-sided positions. Damn, the non-farm payroll data came out at 162,000, far exceeding expectations, removing the last obstacle for a September rate hike. $BTC immediately fell below 80,000. I'm the clown! I originally estimated non-farm payrolls to be around 35,000. According to Waller: if employment is satisfactory, the Fed is likely to hold steady in September. So next, we only need to watch August's inflation. Personally, I think inflation will probably be worse than in July. Since employment data didn't drag behind, the neutral faction will likely side with Walsh. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 But it's still early for the drop below 75,000, because the probability of a rate hike has only risen back to about 55%. Walsh's main focus is on prices, not employment. The 162,000 non-farm payrolls just tell Walsh and Waller that a rate hike won't trigger a wave of unemployment; this is about removing obstacles, not making a final decision. The real trigger is inflation at 3.7% PCE. That's why the market gives a 55% chance instead of 70%: the employment vote is done, but the inflation vote still awaits the CPI on the 10th. Inside the FOMC, the structure is now 2 vs 1. Walsh is the chair, prioritizing prices; Waller and other neutral members prioritize inflation; the remaining doves probably can't win. After tonight's non-farm payroll data release, the market trend fully confirmed my judgment, with $BTC directly breaking below the $80,000 mark, the latest price down about 2.3% from yesterday's close. Reviewing this short-term pullback, the core logic is very clear: 1. Macro expectations were instantly reversed The US added 162,000 jobs in August, far surpassing the market expectation of 56,000. This stronger-than-expected employment resilience directly shattered the market's previous fantasy of an early Fed rate cut. 2. Double blow of funding costs and risk appetite The cooling of rate cut expectations directly pushed US Treasury yields higher, with the two-year Treasury yield rising 7.18 basis points to 4.406%. For the crypto market, a zero-yield asset extremely sensitive to liquidity and risk sentiment, the surge in Treasury yields means a sharp rise in the opportunity cost of holding. Under macro pressure, funds quickly withdrew from high-risk sectors, ultimately leading to this short-term pressured pullback. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 ADP gave an early hint, with private sector employment in August increasing by only 38,000, the weakest since the start of this year. The Beige Book also added that 10 out of 12 districts described conditions as "moderate," with hiring clearly slowing down. The numbers are cooling off, yet CME's probability of a September rate hike remains stuck at 62.3%. On the other hand, inflation hasn't backed down; core PCE stays at 3.3%, with 54% of 178 subcomponents rising over 3% year-over-year, compared to 47% a year ago. Employment is cooling, prices are holding firm, pulling the market in opposite directions, making it hard to confidently bet on either side. Nonfarm payroll expectations are now quite scattered. Reuters surveys expect 58,000, Deutsche Bank sees 65,000, while Wells Fargo and NBC target 80,000, a difference of over 20,000. With expectations so spread out, the data release is likely to cause big swings whichever way it falls. If nonfarm payrolls fall below 58,000, rate hike expectations will basically be extinguished, and BTC could bounce, trying to reach 80,000. But if it rises above 80,000, a rate hike is basically confirmed, and BTC will remain under pressure, first testing if 75,000 holds; if not, then down to 72,000. Don't bet before the data; wait for the release to see how to react. The big picture hasn't changed, only the pace. #FOMC last data set before Friday this weekWin rate 77.78%, so why did it lose 66% over 90 days? Looking only at the win rate, Finished-Rust-Pansy easily appears "good." But in the OKX public Lead Trader data I track, his other side is more worth seeing: • Public win rate: 77.78% • 90-day cumulative return: -66.44% • 90-day maximum drawdown: 75.09% (90 valid observations) • Public copy trading: 135 days A high win rate does not equal making a lot of money. Often, it only means "more wins," and does not tell you the cost of each loss. So I don’t just look at the win rate. I want to know: when the trade is wrong, how much does he lose? How long does it take to recover? Current ATS is 38.11, PROVISIONAL / MEDIUM. This is not a judgment on the trader’s quality, but a risk warning: looking at a single nice number alone often misses the most important parts. I will continue to track these 100 traders in the future. Data as of: 2026-09-04 08:51 (UTC+8) Based solely on OKX public data, for research purposes only, not investment advice.Key Focus: BTC falls back below 80,000; 82,000 peaks then retreats; US August nonfarm payrolls add 162,000, far exceeding expectations; unemployment rate at 4.1%; 10-year US Treasury yield nears 4.8% again; large inflows into BTC ETF; ETH at 2500 critical level; SOL at 100 USD; XRP at 1.40; HYPE unlocking; DeFi and privacy sectors' strength and weakness. Core Analysis: Today the market actually showed a very typical **"good news realization + macro re-pricing"**. BTC was driven by prior day capital inflows and improved risk appetite in early trading, once surging near 82,000 USD, a new high since May, but then saw clear profit-taking, and has now fallen back below 80,000 USD. (Barron’s) The most important change here is not "BTC dropped a few hundred dollars," but that: 80,000 USD was just broken through, then immediately sold back down. This means 80,000 USD has not yet fully shifted from a "resistance level" to a "support level." Meanwhile, US August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000, significantly above market expectations, with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Strong employment data theoretically means the Federal Reserve has no urgent need to ease policy, and the 10-year US Treasury yield has also risen back to about 4.8%, putting pressure on BTC, the Nasdaq, and other high-beta assets. (Investor’s Business Daily) But the market cannot simply be defined as bearish. Because yesterday, the US spot BTC ETF saw net inflows of about 731 million USD Obviously, the current position data has already risen! Just now, due to employment data exceeding expectations, which was bearish, BTC dropped by 2%, resulting in nearly $200 million liquidated! The market first pushed up to squeeze shorts, then used the employment data to kill longs. Essentially, this is a round of two-way deleveraging. The current market mainly relies on expectations and contracts, and spot funds are still insufficient to support BTC's stable breakout. The employment data indicates that the US economy still has resilience, and the Federal Reserve has no urgent reason to ease. The market's pricing for a September rate hike has risen from about 50% to 60%. The transmission logic is very direct: Strong employment → increased probability of rate hikes → stronger US bonds and dollar → pressure on US stocks and BTC. The stronger the US economy, the more unfavorable it is for BTC in the short term; the larger the liquidations, the more it shows that leverage has run ahead of spot. Low volatility with high liquidation volume around eighty thousand is not a good sign!The nonfarm payrolls landed with an increase of 162,000, exceeding all institutional expectations from surveys, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. The data for the previous two months was also revised upward, disproving my earlier bet on weaker data. The job market shows resilience, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Dogecoin will need to digest the pressure from cooling rate cut expectations in the short term, which the bulls must acknowledge. But the market isn't that bleak. Before the data release, Dogecoin dipped from 0.08831 to 0.08403; that drop preemptively released some panic, and the actual data release removed the uncertainty hanging overhead. Looking at the details: the ADP report two days ago showed only 38,000 new jobs, the slowest since January this year. With these two data points conflicting, the market won't rewrite its judgment based on a single monthly nonfarm report; the Fed is also watching the trend. The strong employment side also means the economy hasn't crashed; the soft landing narrative isn't bad for risk assets in the medium term. Easing is postponed, not canceled. On the market front, $DOGE reclaimed above 0.085, with a mark price of 0.08527, and support below remains intact. The 21.8% gain over 30 days is structurally unbroken. For the bulls, the script has shifted from betting on data to waiting for the landing: short term to reprice rate cut expectations, medium term to watch inflation and guidance for the next meeting. As long as the 0.084 level holds, the story isn't over.#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 I am Cige, the nonfarm payrolls exploded. August added 162,000 jobs, the market expected less than 60,000, the actual value is 2.9 times the expectation. The unemployment rate is 4.1%, and wage growth of 3.8% also exceeded expectations. The job market has not cooled down at all; instead, it is accelerating. After the data release, the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 50% directly to over 60%. Waller said just the day before yesterday that if the data is strong, he would consider a rate hike. The nonfarm data is very clear: employment has not cooled, inflation is very unlikely to come down, and Waller's voting balance is already tilting toward a rate hike. The 10-year US Treasury yield is at 4.818%, hitting the highest level since November 2023. With employment data settled and far exceeding expectations, the Federal Reserve has little reason to remain inactive. For BTC, the nonfarm data exceeding expectations directly dispels rate cut fantasies, and it faces short-term pressure in a high interest rate environment. Above 85,000 is a short squeeze zone, but under the backdrop of rising rate hike expectations, breaking through is much more difficult. Bank of America called the nonfarm data an appetizer; CPI is the main course. If CPI also exceeds expectations, a September rate hike is a done deal, and BTC faces further downward pressure. If CPI unexpectedly weakens, rate hike expectations will be extinguished, and the market will reprice. Employment data is already settled, and the balance is tilting toward a rate hike. The direction hasn't changed, only the pace. Cige has finished speaking, savor it. $BTC $ETH $XAUT If the nonfarm negative price can't break through 80,000, I will continue to hold long positions in BTC and ETH. BTC opening average price is 77,518, ETH opening average price is 2,372; both trades have unrealized gains above 60%, and forced liquidations still have an 8% safety cushion. Last night's sharp drop didn't wash me away, indicating bulls are more resilient than expected. My judgment this time is: the market's interpretation of "strong nonfarm payrolls = no rate cuts" is too linear, and the probability of sentiment recovery in the coming week is higher. Targets first target BTC 81,500 and ETH 2,550, with stop-losses at 78,200 and 2,380 respectively. Not a call to buy, just recording my trading thoughts. The market is always right, watch as you go. If you have the same position, share your strategy 👇 in the comments. #8月非农16 2,000 far exceeded expectations, and interest rate hike bets are heating up $BTC Nonfarm Night Tonight at 20:30, the US August nonfarm payroll data was released as expected, but the results shocked everyone — the median forecast was only an increase of 56,000 jobs, but the actual figure was as high as 162,000, and the previous value was revised from -23,000 to +21,000. Once the data came out, Bitcoin immediately fell below $80,000. July's nonfarm unexpectedly turned negative, this week's ADP data was a cold surprise, and with Federal Reserve Governor Waller just signaling dovishness, the probability of a rate hike in September once fell to about 50/50. Bitcoin rebounded early to above $81,000, with many bulls betting that weak employment would further suppress rate hike expectations, opening upside space for risk assets. The harsh reality after the data The employment growth of 162,000 completely shattered this illusion. This is a much stronger-than-expected figure — indicating the labor market is far more resilient than imagined, and the probability of a Fed rate hike in September has risen rather than fallen. For the crypto space, rising rate hike expectations mean a stronger dollar and tighter liquidity, which directly hurts assets like Bitcoin that are highly sensitive to interest rates. As a result, Bitcoin immediately dropped below $80,000. Over $200 million in liquidations occurred across the network within an hour, with long liquidations reaching as high as $186 million. The nonfarm data proved the job market remains strong, and the Fed has no reason to be dovish — tonight's drop is the most direct punishment for wishful thinking. $BTC #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 #Brothers, what I'm more focused on now is how the market digests the data after it's released, rather than blindly guessing the rise or fall. Currently, the job market still signals cooling down: ADP job growth is only 38,000, and initial jobless claims are about 206,000. If tonight's nonfarm payrolls come in below expectations, market bets on rate cuts may further heat up, giving BTC a chance to test the $84K–$86K range upward. Conversely, if nonfarm payrolls are significantly stronger than expected, the dollar and US Treasury yields may rise again, and BTC should be cautious of a pullback to the $78K–$80K range. ⚠️ So the focus tonight is not the first candlestick, but whether BTC can hold the key range after the data release. The bigger the data, the greater the volatility; wait for the market to give direction first, then consider the next step. #DailyOrbit #BTC #Bitcoin #NFP #CryptoMacro and Policy News Highlights 1. US August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Released, Triggering a Flash Crash in the Crypto Market At 8:30 AM Eastern Time on September 4 (12:30 UTC), the US released the August nonfarm payroll report. According to KuCoin breaking news and TradingKey market tracking, the volatility in the nonfarm employment data broke the previous consensus of a one-sided bullish expectation. US Treasury yields and the US dollar index experienced sharp fluctuations, causing a phase of liquidation of high-leverage long positions in the derivatives market. BTC briefly plunged from $81,200 to $79,225, while ETH simultaneously dipped to around $2,450. 2. Data Repricing Window Ahead of the Interest Rate Meeting The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold the FOMC interest rate decision meeting on September 15–16. After the release of the nonfarm data, market disagreements over the size of the September rate cut increased. Institutions used high-frequency liquidity hunting at key technical levels to flush out high-position chasing floating chips. 3. Critical Test of Support Levels for Top-Bottom Reversal The nonfarm flash crash did not break the long-term upward channel. Prices directly retraced to the core neckline support zone of the volume breakout on September 3 (BTC $78,800–$79,400). If this area can quickly stabilize with a firm lower shadow after digesting the data, it will form a classic right-side accumulation structure.#8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 Will the Federal Reserve dare to raise interest rates next? The just-released US August nonfarm payrolls surged by 162,000, completely crushing the market's original expectation of around 50,000, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. Against the backdrop of tense Iran situation and heightened geopolitical uncertainty, the labor market's ability to deliver such a rebound is truly impressive. There are two details worth pondering: First, structural differentiation. The main growth drivers, besides the traditional leisure, hospitality, and government sectors, include a strong rebound in construction and manufacturing, despite pressure from high interest rates. This indicates that businesses have not completely given up due to geopolitical conflicts, and demand for labor remains robust. Second, the second-stage transmission of inflation. Everyone is watching employment, but what’s even more concerning is that workers’ wages may rise accordingly. With geopolitical conflicts pushing up oil prices and supply chain costs, the better the employment, the higher the risk of a wage-inflation spiral. The Federal Reserve is currently in an extremely awkward position. Such a hot employment market hands hawkish officials a knife, greatly increasing the rationale for rate hikes. But the real decisive factor is next week’s CPI release. If CPI also exceeds expectations, a rate hike this month is almost certain. Forecasting the upcoming trend: The Fed will most likely adopt a tough hawkish stance, and the market will undergo a painful revaluation as rate cut expectations are completely dashed. Unless next week’s CPI shows a miraculous sharp drop, high interest rates are likely to persist for a while. DYOR $TRX Hu Xijin has fallen for Sun Yuchen's trick. Sun's Huobi hole is huge now, using Hu Xijin to divert attention. Sun's BTC and ETH are mostly extracted through TRX cyclic loans, WBTC is basically unrelated to him, he is just a custodian institution shareholder. USDD is minted by TRX collateral, and a large amount of USDT is user funds attracted by USDD at an annualized 20% high interest rate. The listed financial company actually holds only about 700 million TRX, and can only buy 30,000–50,000 U each time, the stock market cash-out is nearly exhausted. HTX was bought from Li Lin for 1 billion back then, user loss is severe, now it is worthless and hard to liquidate. After multiple layers of penetration, the real cash flow available is less than 500 million USD. The funniest thing is he counts the frozen WLFI as assets, boasting a value of 560 million USD, but his WLFI is hopeless to be recovered in this lifetime. Assets are highly dependent on TRX collateral cycles, so TRX price is abnormally stable with minimal pullbacks, one of the few assets that can outperform Bitcoin, this is his secret to wealth. He is now frantically diverting the topic, TRX is his lifeline, once TRX crashes and falls, Huobi will directly go bankrupt and liquidate.Nonfarm payrolls far exceed expectations, $BTC under short-term pressure August added 162,000 nonfarm jobs, far exceeding the market expectation of 56,000; unemployment rate remains at 4.1%, and July data was revised from -23,000 to +21,000 Looking solely at employment, this report is clearly hawkish; the U.S. labor market is far stronger than previously thought For BTC, the logic is simple: the stronger the employment, the more confidence the Fed has to maintain high interest rates or even continue raising them; U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar are more likely to strengthen, liquidity expectations tighten, which is naturally unfavorable for high-volatility risk assets like BTC Before the data release, BTC was still near $81,000, but it has now fallen below $80,000; the market is trading on this logic Short-term high-leverage traders are really having a hard time 🥺 #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 As soon as the non-farm payroll data was released, $BTC dropped in response! August non-farm just came out: 162,000 new jobs added, while the expectation was just over 50,000, directly contradicting forecasts. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%. Wages rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, not very strong. The food service sector suddenly hired 59,000, local government education added 42,000, and manufacturing continued to slowly increase. However, the information sector cut 23,000 jobs again. The previous two months were revised upward by 55,000, with July revised from -23,000 to +21,000. ADP reported only 38,000, but BLS gave a big number here. The job market seems to have caught its breath again. The Federal Reserve will look at inflation next week, and the rate decision is in two weeks; this data will probably make them even more conflicted. Once the $ETH non-farm payroll data came out, I knew there was no chance of a peaceful night's sleep tonight. In August, 162,000 new jobs were added, completely smashing all institutional expectations. The unemployment rate stayed steady at 4.1%, and even the data from the previous two months was revised upward — the US job market is much stronger than we imagined. To put it simply, everyone was waiting for a rate cut, but the economy isn’t weak enough for that. Why would the Fed rush to cut rates? The rate cut expectations were immediately doused with cold water. For us crypto traders, this news is definitely uncomfortable in the short term. As liquidity expectations tighten, BTC and ETH are the first to feel the pressure. The short sellers are taking this opportunity to poke and prod aggressively. But from another perspective, since the economy hasn’t collapsed, there’s no risk of systemic sell-offs. The soft landing story still holds, so the impact isn’t purely negative; it’s more about the turmoil caused by the re-evaluation of interest rate expectations. Gold is even more directly affected: real interest rates are rising, rate cut trades are weakened, and gold prices are being heavily suppressed in the short term. The rush for safe-haven buying has also cooled off. The US stock market is being pulled in two directions — earnings fundamentals provide support, but valuation expansion is restrained by the cooling rate cut expectations, so it’s a two-way battle in the short term. Next, keep an eye on two things: what Fed officials say, and the next inflation data. These two are the key to deciding whether rate cut expectations will be delayed. Until then, the market will likely continue to jump around, so it’s always safer to keep positions light. 162,000 nonfarm payroll data was a huge surprise!! My view: It reflects that US employment remains strong, which is positive for Trump's midterm elections. At the same time, I believe the link between employment and inflation has been broken. It has changed from being transmissible to not transmissible. The biggest inflation problem lies in the food and beverage service industry, including Waller's stance. The Federal Reserve does not place much emphasis on employment data. I think today's nonfarm payroll is a temporary one-time negative, the focus is still on the CPI data on the 11th. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through. Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level GMGN fee revenue has been approaching historical highs for several consecutive days, with on-chain Meme hype returning to peak levels. According to DeFiLlama data, driven by the booming hype on the Robinhood chain and BSC chain, the GMGN platform's fee revenue has been close to historical highs for several consecutive days, with nearly $2.59 million in fee revenue in the past 24 hours and a cumulative $37.96 million in the past 30 days, matching the peak period of the TRUMP coin craze and second only to the peak hype period of Binance Life on BSC chain. GMGN is a well-known on-chain Meme coin market and trading tool platform, whose fee revenue comes directly from users' on-chain trading activities, thus often used as a real-time indicator to measure on-chain speculative heat. The latest data shows that GMGN's fee revenue reached $2.59 million in the past 24 hours and $37.96 million cumulatively in the past 30 days, running near historical highs for several consecutive days. This revenue level is basically on par with the period when Trump issued the TRUMP coin that ignited on-chain activity, second only to the record peak hype period of Binance Life Meme on the BSC chain. The main drivers of this revenue surge come from two chains: first, the BSC chain's Meme coin hype has become active again, with significantly increased on-chain turnover and trading frequency; second, the Robinhood chain ecosystem has recently seen hype activity, attracting a large influx of funds and users into on-chain trading. Fee revenue is a direct reflection of real capital behavior and is harder to manipulate than coin price fluctuations, so GMGN's revenue approaching historical highs usually means that retail speculative sentiment on-chain is at a high level. From historical experience, on-chain M$SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through. Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level
Orbit Topic Sitemap