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9.4 Gold Evening Review
The non-farm payroll data release is approaching, and gold is currently fluctuating narrowly around 4468. The hourly chart still shows an overall bullish trend, but the MACD indicator continues to decline, and upward momentum is weakening; the 30-minute chart maintains a high-level consolidation with intensified long-short battles. The market remains cautious, waiting for the non-farm data to guide the direction.
Key Levels
Resistance above: 4490-4510
Support below: 4450-4430
Trading Strategy
With the non-farm data about to be released, the market may experience sharp volatility at any time. Do not preemptively bet on direction; prioritize observation and wait for the data to be released.
If price breaks above and holds above the 4490-4510 resistance, consider short positions targeting 4450-4430.
Non-farm night sessions are highly volatile; strictly control position sizes, set stop losses, avoid chasing highs or selling lows, and wait for clear market signals before taking action. $XAU 🚨 Bitcoin ETF demand just made a statement.
U.S. spot $BTC ETFs reportedly saw $731M in inflows their biggest single day since January.
BTC is back above $80K.
Institutional demand is heating up again.
Now the question is whether price can follow.
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
The BTC to gold ratio has reached 18.17, hitting a new high since January this year. One BTC can now be exchanged for over 18 ounces of gold. Both BTC and gold are rising together, a scenario rarer than Pharaoh's pyramids.
The core issue is this—US debt has surpassed 40 trillion, and except for Switzerland, all major developed economies have debt-to-GDP ratios exceeding 100%. Besent directly stated at the G20 that "the world is drowning in debt."
André Dragosch, Head of European Research at Bitwise, pointed out that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has climbed to a six-year high. After the US Treasury announced expanded debt buybacks, the dollar weakened, and investors bought both gold and BTC to hedge against currency depreciation. The correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq has dropped to a one-year low, shifting BTC from a "high-beta tech stock" to a "macro hedge asset."
Can this ratio continue? Dragosch believes that if this correlation persists, Bitcoin's positioning over the next fifteen years could be entirely different. But Pharaoh reminds you—an increasing ratio might mean BTC is truly competing with gold, or it could just be higher volatility amplifying the same narrative faster. BTC rises fast but falls fast too. As long as the "debt depreciation" narrative remains, both gold and BTC have a role to play. Pharaoh's advice remains the same: good trades are made by waiting; wait for a pullback and stabilization before acting—it's a hundred times safer than chasing highs. $ETH $BTC $ZEC #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ Latest news from the US on Bitcoin: Optimistic expectations are high, but risks still loom overhead
The core driver of this round of Bitcoin rebound comes entirely from the US macro environment. The Federal Reserve's dovish stance and gradual regulatory normalization have boosted market sentiment, leading to a clear rebound in Bitcoin.
Many people blindly assume a bull market has started just because the market is warming up, but all current gains are based on premature expectations and have not yet been realized.
The current key positives are very clear: the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations for September have cooled, the US dollar is weakening, and funds are flowing back into risk assets; US crypto regulation is shifting from suppression to normalization, continuously strengthening the bottom support; economic data is weak, the market is betting on a liquidity turning point, and the long-term market logic remains solid.
However, short-term risks cannot be ignored.
The current market is entirely betting on favorable CPI data. If inflation rebounds and the Federal Reserve turns hawkish again, this rebound could collapse at any time. Additionally, September has historically been a weak and volatile month, with heavy trapped positions and profit-taking pressure in the 83000–86000 range, severely limiting upside space.
At present, the market is only repairing existing funds; ETF funds are repeatedly flowing in and out without sustained new inflows. The market warming has fueled leveraged sentiment, and unanimous bullishness often leads to shakeouts and spikes.
Overall summary: The long-term bottom is solid, but there is absolutely no one-sided bull market in the short term.
The best strategy at this stage: do not chase highs, do not stubbornly hold, keep light positions and follow the trend, focusing on swing trading. Optimism can be referenced but never heavily relied upon. Before data is realized, oscillation and tug-of-war will be the main rhythm this month. Controlling positions and steady trading to profit on both sides is the most stable trading approach. BTC traded this week in the range of approximately $76,700-$81,500, encountering resistance twice in the $81,000-$86,000 supply zone. Currently, futures open interest is near a five-month low, crypto asset margin OI accounts for only about 11%, and the annualized funding rate is below 10%, indicating no significant leveraged long crowding in this rally. Meanwhile, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $731 million on September 3, but BTC did not close higher that day. QCP believes this indicates spot selling pressure remains near $81,000. On the macro front, after Jackson Hole, the market's probability of a September rate hike briefly rose from about 35% to 70%, then fell back to around 45%-50% due to weaker employment data and comments from Waller. The US August nonfarm payrolls, to be released tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, will be the next key variable, while the US Treasury auctions from September 8-11, expanded long-term Treasury repos, and CPI data will further influence long-end yields and BTC direction. QCP states that in the next two weeks, a more important question for BTC may not be the federal funds rate itself, but whether the 30-year Treasury yield can remain below the August highs. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC 9.4 Evening Market Observation
After a surge in the evening, the price faced pressure and fell back, fluctuating back and forth with intense battles between bulls and bears.
The short-term rhythm switches quickly; after an upward push, a pullback is likely. Do not blindly follow just because of a rise.
Market volatility has increased, so frequent trading is not advisable. Try to wait for a clear position before making decisions.
Regardless of how the market fluctuates, risk protection should always be the top priority. Objectively and calmly assess every wave.
Trading Suggestions:
Long: 4440-4460, stop loss at 4430, target 4480, breakout at 4520
Short: 4480-4500, stop loss at 4510, target 4460, breakout at 4410
#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 The evening session maintained a high-level oscillation pattern, with BTC consolidating previous gains, while mainstream coins like ETH and SOL showed divergence. Influenced by the news that Japanese listed company Remixpoint liquidated ETH, SOL, and XRP holdings, retaining only Bitcoin positions, the market exhibited a clear asset stratification narrative. Some funds favored Bitcoin, altcoins came under pressure, and sector rotation slowed down.
On the news front, Remixpoint's portfolio adjustment realized profits from altcoins, recovering 878.8 million in funds. The capital did not continue to increase BTC positions but was invested in energy storage real businesses, representing asset rebalancing by the listed company rather than a complete bearish stance on altcoins. However, this objectively reinforced the market perception of BTC as an institutional base holding. Meanwhile, Jiang Zhuoer declared he would no longer trade ETH perpetual contracts, once again warning of contract leverage risks; Polymarket secured massive financing, indicating sustained enthusiasm in the prediction market sector.
From a macro perspective, after the release of non-farm payroll data, the market continued to speculate on the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace. The US dollar and US Treasury yields fluctuated repeatedly, continuously suppressing the crypto market's upward breakout potential. Large capital's offensive willingness contracted, focusing more on turnover and portfolio adjustments. The market has not entered a new acceleration phase; oscillation and consolidation have become the main features. The short squeeze in the futures market has faded, with intensified long-short battles and increased risk of price spikes.
On the trading side, the major bullish trend remains intact but short-term momentum has weakened, making it unsuitable to chase highs. The Remixpoint event will exacerbate coin differentiation, further strengthening BTC consensus, while mainstream altcoins are likely to face capital diversion.83,000 marks a critical turning point! $BTC is about to break out with volume, or is it the bulls' last trap?
$BTC returns to $80,000, but the market has no consensus expectation.
Jiang Zhuoer cleared his position at $82,050, believing that the short 13-day consolidation is insufficient to break through $83,000 to $84,000, and the next step might be a pullback to $70,000 to $72,000.
Yi Lihua sees $76,300 as support but also believes $86,000 is the real resistance level.
Meanwhile, the whale "Set 10 big targets first" posted on platform X that the "last chance to get on board points to $100,000."
The funding situation is also contradictory.
A mysterious whale sold 167,900 ETH in 5 days, cashing out about $408 million.
Strive holds up to $1.4 billion in potential buying power and plans to continue accumulating BTC.
The US already has 174 crypto ETFs, with IBIT managing about $61 billion, accounting for 38%. Institutional channels are becoming more mature, but funds are also more concentrated.
Trading terminal daily volume broke $1 billion, with Robinhood Chain suddenly contributing over 90% of GMGN trading volume, indicating risk appetite is recovering but mainly flowing into short-term trades.
Right now, it’s not a simple bull vs. bear battle but a simultaneous occurrence of long-term buying and short-term profit-taking.
If BTC breaks and holds $83,000 to $86,000 with volume, $100,000 might not be far away.
If ETF funds weaken later, $70,000 to $75,000 could be the next test. In the afternoon, General Lin told the brothers in advance that $ZEC has strongly broken above 1000, hitting a new high!
The leader has already created space first, the sector's heat continues to rise, and funds are starting to spread to the same track. The rotation opportunities in the privacy sector are gradually opening up!
$DASH is the most obvious representative, followed by key attention on: ZEN, XMR!
ZEC and DASH have already set the example; the leader is responsible for opening the way. Whether other coins can take over depends on how funds rotate next! #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 All driven by overseas macro factors and external market linkage, with three clear and distinct logics:
First, the Fed's rate hike expectations cool down. Fed officials have signaled dovishness, indicating that if inflation continues to decline, rate hikes will be paused, directly pushing down U.S. Treasury yields and weakening the dollar, significantly easing valuation pressure on risk assets and providing a loose liquidity environment for the crypto sector.
Second, a broad rebound in crypto assets. Overnight, Bitcoin broke through $82,000, reaching a new high since May, with a daily maximum increase of over 6%; Ethereum and BNB surged simultaneously, multiple niche tokens rallied collectively, and overall sector sentiment was fully restored.
Third, strong linkage with U.S. tech stocks. Leading overseas crypto companies surged collectively, with Strategy soaring 17.56%, Circle rising over 16%, Coinbase up more than 10%, and the external market rally directly lifted valuation expectations for the digital currency sector in the A-share market.
Personal interpretation: Digital currency is a typical "liquidity-sensitive sector," with price movements highly tied to dollar liquidity expectations. The previous sector adjustment was essentially due to rate hike expectations suppression; this rebound marks a marginal turning point in trading liquidity rather than a simple oversold recovery, and the market has logical support.#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
This time, the tide is really turning!
Interest rate hikes can no longer be suppressed!
Actually, whether to raise rates in September doesn't hinge on tonight, but on next week's inflation data.
Waller's point is that if inflation continues to cool down, don't move interest rates yet; if inflation heats up again, then consider tightening further.
He did not promise a rate cut. Just "don't increase the pace for now." After hearing this, the market's confidence in a September rate hike dropped from 80% to about 50/50.
Hiring is indeed cooling off. A few months ago, some figures were still negative, but later they were revised downward.
Outside, it's expected that about 50,000 to 60,000 people will be hired tonight. But oil prices are still rising, and more goods are getting more expensive.
Fewer hires on one side, prices still high on the other, no one dares to bet on a single direction.
If hiring is very low, the market thinks a rate hike is even less likely, and Bitcoin might surge near 80,000.
If hiring is moderate, it will continue to fluctuate. If hiring is strong, rate hike expectations will rise again, and Bitcoin might drop.
Using positions to guess the outcome is a very risky move; it's better to wait for the numbers before acting!
Hiring is decreasing, prices are still high, and the top decision-makers are quite torn.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
#OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Earnings Report Watch｜AI Industry Chain Shows Divergence in Heat, Short-term Expectations and Long-term Narratives Are Pulling Apart
A recent batch of AI industry giants released earnings reports, providing a clear view of the current real state of the industry: hardware orders remain hot, software-side growth is accelerating, but some companies' short-term guidance falls short of market expectations, leading to market contention.
Dell raised its full-year revenue forecast and significantly increased its AI server business targets. Over the past twelve months, AI server orders have exceeded ¥130 billion, with ¥60.9 billion in new orders in a single quarter, and backlog orders waiting to be delivered reaching ¥95 billion, indicating continued demand for computing infrastructure.
Broadcom's quarterly earnings were very impressive, with revenue and profit nearly doubling year-over-year. Its AI semiconductor business surged 221% year-over-year and rose 54% quarter-over-quarter, with AI-related revenue accounting for more than half of total revenue. However, the issue lies in the next quarter's guidance, which projects Q4 revenue slightly below general market expectations, directly causing the stock sell-off after the earnings release. Nevertheless, the long-term narrative was fully reinforced during the conference call: the company raised its AI revenue target for this year and boldly predicted AI business would double in fiscal 2027 and double again in fiscal 2028. Leading companies like Google, OpenAI, and Meta continue to purchase custom chips from Broadcom.
On the other hand, Snowflake delivered an above-expectation performance, with revenue growth further accelerating for the third consecutive quarter. The company also raised its full-year revenue guidance, with after-hours trading surging over 20%, indicating strong demand in the AI software sector as well. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS — $HYPE (15m)
Market bias: BULLISH BIAS 🟢
🎯 trend continuation | Confidence 86/100
Price zones to watch: 87.026
Scenario invalidation level: 86.0997
Technical target 1: 88.1839
Technical target 2: 88.8786
Technical target 3: 89.8048
RSI14 57.3 | ADX14 18.3 | MACD +0.0555 | Vol 0.17x
A 15m close through SL invalidates the setup; the stop defines the risk boundary.
Educational analysis only—not financial advice.
#OKXOrbitTopicsThis is a 10x leveraged long position on ZEC, opened at a price of 1010.00, with a position size of 674,791.1 USD. Don't imagine it as a miraculous bottom-fishing trade.
Key data: Coin ZEC, leverage 10x, direction long, opening price 1010.00.
The profit potential of going long comes from price increases, but if the directional judgment is wrong, losses, drawdowns, and liquidation risks will all be amplified.
The material lacks current market price, profit and loss, margin, liquidation price, and stop-loss information, so it cannot be concluded whether this trade is profitable or not.
A large position size does not equal a correct direction; on-chain alerts are just information, not a notification of price increase, and certainly won't bear the risk for you.
The dumbest thing is not making a wrong call, but stubbornly holding on emotionally, refusing to admit losses, waiting for a rebound, and eventually turning the trade into a forced liquidation.
10x leverage is not bravery; it actively reduces your margin for error. If you want to capture upside gains, you must also accept the sharp downside.
Before opening a position, clearly define your stop-loss, maximum tolerable loss, and exit conditions. Don't wait for the candlestick to make decisions for you. Stop loss when necessary to preserve your capital.Everyone was originally focused on the Federal Reserve possibly cutting rates in September, but the players on Polymarket (where real money is staked on predictions) suddenly collectively changed their stance. As of September 4, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged has surged to 60%, a sharp 9% increase within 24 hours! Meanwhile, the previously favored 25 basis point rate cut has become the underdog, with its probability dropping to 42%.
You should know that Polymarket's data is often more authentic than institutional surveys because it involves gamblers' (or rather, prediction experts') hard-earned money. The probability jumping from 51% to 60% indicates that funds are aggressively hedging one possibility: the Fed still believes inflation isn't fully under control, or the labor market isn't bad enough yet to require urgent intervention.
Tonight at 8:30 PM Eastern Time (midnight Beijing time), the crucial non-farm payroll report will be released. The market median expectation is an addition of 56,000 jobs.
* If the data > 56,000: It's over. Powell will likely shrug and say, "See, employment is still okay, we'll keep watching." At that point, rate cut expectations will instantly die down, the dollar will rebound, and risk assets (BTC, tech stocks) will likely face a cold snap.
* If the data < 56,000: The market will start screaming that a recession is coming! Although rate cuts will be secure, the concern will shift from interest rates to whether there will still be money to spend.
* The current market situation is like the calm before the storm If judged by real-world standards, 90% of on-chain operations are suspected of "seriously disrupting traffic" 🚦
In reality, you transfer money or buy a coffee, done with a beep in 0.5 seconds.
But in some crypto networks:
1. First confirm if you are connected to the official RPC;
2. Pray the cross-chain bridge doesn’t get stuck halfway;
3. Stare at the burning high Gas fees and fall into deep thought, wondering if you’re bidding on some spaceship.
Technology should make life simpler, not force people to earn a master's degree in blockchain engineering.
ACO’s confidence lies in its obsession with a "low-friction experience":
Setting aside those mystifying gimmicks, compressing crypto socializing, asset flow, and daily interactions into a fast-responding closed loop.
Making sending messages as natural as Swap transactions is the only right way for public chains to achieve large-scale adoption.
What was the most frustrating on-chain lag you’ve ever experienced? Vent in the comments 👇
#ACO #User Experience #Blockchain Daily #Efficiency Revolution #Web3 Pain PointsI’m expecting a flash crash at some point in September — but from higher levels.
I don’t think we break below these prices. Quote me on it:
$BTC — $74K
$ZEC — $750
$ETH — $2,350
$SOL — $95
$HYPE — $73
A sharp shakeout may come, but these are the levels I’m backing as the floor.
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC On-chain activity is rising, making Arbitrum's revenue narrative a focal point again, but amid the noise, the most fundamental question that should be asked is this: revenue and profit have never been the same thing. The incremental transactions brought by Robinhood Chain indeed inject freshness into the ecosystem and have led the market to reassess the monetization capabilities of L2. However, upon closer inspection, how much of the fees generated by the protocol truly flow back into the DAO treasury, and how much can be converted into actual benefits for ARB holders, is filtered through layers of governance structure, fee distribution mechanisms, and market expectations. The crypto world often equates "ecosystem prosperity" directly with "token bullishness," but frequently skips this crucial step. What truly deserves deep reflection is whether this tech stack can leverage its foundational capabilities to shift from "attracting users on its own" to "renting out financial infrastructure to others." If this can be achieved, the imagination space for the business model will be completely opened; if it is just a temporary hype, the aftermath will inevitably be a mess once the sentiment fades. Currently, on-chain data is still in its early stages, and the details of revenue attribution remain unclear. It is recommended to wait patiently for more detailed accounting information and governance developments to emerge. Short-term volatility of $ARB is inevitable; please view the narrative and fundamentals with rationality. #沃勒：August inflation will determine whether there is a rate hike in September Nonfarm preview: Bull and bear signals are torn apart, employment data faces a major directional test
⚠️ Macro analysis only, not investment advice
Currently, various leading indicators show significant divergence, and the market's expectations for this nonfarm payroll report are seriously split.
JOLTS job openings have rebounded again, the ISM manufacturing prices paid index remains high, inflation stickiness has not completely dissipated, and employment still shows some resilience; however, ADP small nonfarm payrolls have clearly weakened, initial jobless claims remain high, signaling a cooling labor market, with the two leading indicators contradicting each other.
On the policy front, there is division within the Federal Reserve: Waller sends conditional dovish signals, while Walsh maintains a hawkish stance, repeatedly emphasizing that if inflation targets are not met, further tightening cannot be ruled out. On one hand, officials are dovish to repair market sentiment; on the other, inflation-related data continues to constrain, causing the probability of a September rate hike to fluctuate within a range. U.S. Treasury yields are tugging back and forth, risk assets lack clear directional guidance, and the crypto market continues to oscillate at high levels, playing out macro expectations.
If this nonfarm employment and wage data significantly exceed expectations, employment resilience combined with wage rebound will quickly raise rate hike expectations again. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will rebound upward, while stocks, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies will all come under pressure, with high-elasticity coins like ETH experiencing more pronounced pullbacks.
Only a very unlikely sharp weakening of nonfarm payrolls would further ease rate hike concerns and open space for risk asset rebounds.
Nonfarm night market volatility is intense, with spikes and rapid reversals being normal; do not heavily position ahead of the results. Prioritize waiting for the data release and then observe market structure confirmation, and be sure to manage position risk. $BTC $ETH $ZEC BTC has remained there since yesterday's impulse above $80,000 and is consolidating. There was no quick reversal from Strong signal of the high marks on the hourly, 2- and 3-hour TFs, which were listed and shown in yesterday's review. Moreover, sellers are not yet able to gain a stable downtrend even on the 5-minute TF. As you can see from the screenshot, the price has already been sent to the downtrend on this TF three times, but each time buyers restore the uptrend and the density of targets is already accumulating on top to $82,630. But the situation #BTC$SNDK SanDisk is spiking tonight! If you're not afraid of liquidation, you can watch!
SanDisk's rise is never temporary!
Core driver: AI computing power surge drives enterprise-grade SSD demand, while NAND capacity was cut earlier and shifted to HBM, causing severe supply shortages and a sharp price increase. Fiscal year 2026 SanDisk revenue surges 175%, with gross margin climbing to 78.4%.
Amplifiers: Signed long-term agreements with cloud giants to lock in revenue and smooth out cycle fluctuations; spun off from Western Digital and included in key indices, attracting passive funds and achieving valuation reshaping. $MU
Biggest risk: Ultra-high gross margin and 40x forward PE already fully price in optimistic expectations. Once new capacity releases cause prices to fall, the expectation gap may trigger sharp corrections. $SKHYNIX
Dasheng's trading advice: Aggressive traders can go long at the current price; conservative followers can enter long positions around 1560. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 Tonight's non-farm payrolls, I'm directly taking profit on long positions and going all-in on shorts.
No one dares to lie flat in advance, after all, $BTC has been stuck around the 80,000 mark for almost a month. If it breaks through, it's a new trend; if it doesn't, those chasing highs will be stuck for more than half a month.
Previously, everyone believed "good data means a drop, bad data means a rise," but in the last two non-farm payrolls, those who traded based on this logic mostly got stopped out back and forth, losing money and breaking their mindset first.
Now the whole network is expecting 56,000 new jobs, but veteran players remember that the data from the past two months was quietly revised down by over 100,000. The number coming out tonight is likely to be tougher than expected; the September rate hike issue hasn't completely cooled off.
Last night’s rebound to 81,000 was obviously not because bulls were strong, but because a Fed official made a dovish comment, US Treasury yields dropped, and funds dared to rush in for a spike. The volume didn’t keep up at all; it was very hollow.
Don’t foolishly wait to lie flat just because the data is bad. If employment collapses too badly, everyone will panic fearing a recession. Risk assets like Bitcoin will run faster than anyone else, and then no one will be able to escape.
Now both bulls and bears are stubbornly holding on. Half are waiting for a break above 80,000 to chase longs, the other half are waiting for explosive data to short and crash the market. We’re just waiting for that moment at 8:30 tonight; one side will have to admit defeat.
I’ve stocked up two packs of cigarettes, just waiting for this candlestick to appear. Haven’t eaten yet, ready to turn off the lights and eat noodles.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ $ETH $ZEC The temperature difference between employment data and interest rate hike expectations is becoming the most subtle point of market contention. August ADP private employment increased by only 38,000, below expectations and hitting a new low since January this year, with manufacturing and professional services contracting simultaneously, and wage growth for low-paying jobs also noticeably weak. On the other hand, CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September still hovering at 62.3%, making the tension between data and expectations increasingly glaring.
Meanwhile, large funds seem to have chosen a different path. The SPDR Gold ETF increased holdings by nearly 10 tons in a single day, raising its position to 1,056.62 tons, with a cumulative increase of over 14 tons in two consecutive days. Although gold prices briefly fell below a key level, the counter-trend accumulation reveals some funds' skepticism about the persistence of tightening expectations.
The non-farm payroll data to be released Friday night is the last piece of the puzzle before the FOMC meeting. If employment continues to weaken, the 62% rate hike probability may quickly cool down, potentially leading to a rebound in gold and Bitcoin after suppression; conversely, if the data is unexpectedly strong, the probability could surge above 70%, putting renewed pressure on the crypto market, with some views even mentioning lower support levels. Before the direction is clear, waiting for the data to land might be more prudent than making predictions.
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile, and data and expectations may be repeatedly revised. Please control your positions rationally and pay attention to risk management. $BTC $ETH#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 #BTC加速拉升，资金还能继续接力吗？
【7 days later BTC will be above $ 83K, here are 3 reasons for my judgment】
First, the biggest signal — on Thursday BTC ETF net inflow was $ 731M, the highest single-day figure this year.
Who is buying? Not retail investors.
Retail might chase after a 4% rise, but $ 731M at this scale means institutions and whales are reallocating chips. One product, IBIT, took more than half of that, what does this mean? Traditional asset management money has officially entered, not just tentative small moves.
The second reason, sentiment is not yet crazy.
FNG at 74 is indeed in the greed zone, but still far from the bubble peaks I've seen. In November 2021, it hit 95, with everyone shouting "it will rise forever," that was the real sentiment peak. Now at 74, weekly average 67, it shows the market still has divergence, and where there is divergence, there is room. I'll run when even the market vendors ask you what to buy, there's still time.
The third reason, the position.
A 35% retracement from ATH, what does this mean historically? Every time there is a large pullback to this range, long-term funds start building positions in batches. They don't require buying at the lowest, but at a reasonable range. Now at $ 81K, for those looking 2-3 years ahead, the cost-performance ratio is clear.
I'm not telling you to buy or sell by saying this. I'm explaining the logic, you decide.
So the question is —
Is this $ 731M inflow into ETFs because institutions really are optimistic, or are they rushing in during a window period to make a quick move and run?
This is the key to deciding the next trend.
What do you think?
$BTC Robinhood chain meme stocks keep emerging: new token "18932" surges to $3 million in market value in one hour. On September 4, according to GMGN market data, the meme token "18932" on Robinhood chain surpassed $3 million in market cap less than one hour after issuance, then fell back to $2.72 million. This token is inspired by the asteroid 18932 named "Robinhood" and uses the tokenized US stock SpaceX as its base pool pairing. This token is the latest meme case in the Robinhood chain ecosystem, with a playful name: in astronomy, there is an asteroid number 18932 named "Robinhood," which the project team used to create a dual connection with the stock trading platform of the same name, creating buzz. What is even more noteworthy is its liquidity design. This meme coin does not use mainstream ETH or stablecoins as its base pool, but instead pairs with the tokenized US stock company SpaceX. This means that when traders buy or sell '18932', they are actually exchanging tokens with the tokenized stock pool, linking meme speculation and stock tokenization narratives. Background: In recent years, Robinhood has actively expanded on-chain business, including launching tokenized stock services to European users (covering shares of privately listed companies like SpaceX) and advancing the construction of its own blockchain network. With the implementation of on-chain infrastructure, around Robinhood, SpaceX, and tokenization,Crypto rises, semiconductors fall policy drives both.
Fed Governor Waller’s dovish comments reduced Fed hike odds from 63% to 60%, supporting BTC and major crypto.
Meanwhile, potential U.S. semiconductor tariffs pressured $SNDK , $MU , $xQCOM and the broader chip sector.
#WallerEyesAugCPI
#BTCGoldRatioHigh
#OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC #英伟达拟以129.3亿美元收购HuggingFace
The impact on the crypto community, in three directions.
First, an accelerator for AI + crypto integration. Hugging Face has already extended into the crypto field through decentralized AI projects. After Nvidia takes over, the integration of AI and the crypto industry will only deepen. On-chain agents, oracle services, tokenized model markets—these tracks relying on open-source AI infrastructure will gain a more mature technical foundation.
Second, a warning signal: neutrality is disappearing. Hugging Face used to be neutral and accessible to everyone. Now it is Nvidia's asset. Crypto developers worry that vendor control will change the default path of model distribution. For decentralized AI projects, this means investing in self-hosting, peer-to-peer distribution, or on-chain registries to maintain true independence.
Third, short-term sentiment catalyst. Once the acquisition news broke, the Meme coin microduck, modeled after Hugging Face's open-source bot, surged over 35% in the short term, with its market cap briefly surpassing $50 million. This kind of sentiment-driven speculation comes fast and goes fast.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH $USELESS confidently go long, the top 10 addresses, and even the person giving the trading signals haven't sold yetDo I still have a chance to break even on this order $ZEC #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ From USDT0 × Stellar, let's look at the next phase of stablecoin infrastructure. Every time USDT is withdrawn from an exchange, we see a familiar question: please choose the network. TRC20？ ERC20？ Or other networks? But recently, seeing USDT0 officially launch on Stellar, I suddenly realized: this issue itself might be proof that crypto infrastructure is not mature enough. Because as a user, what I really want to do is actually just one thing: transfer 100 USDT from A to B. Why do I need to understand Blockchain first? 01| Because "USD" is actually scattered across many chains Today's stablecoin liquidity is distributed across different blockchains. Ethereum has its own liquidity. Tron has its own Tron. Other networks also have their own assets and liquidity environments. So users must know: Which chain is my money on? Which chain does the other party support? What happens if you choose the wrong network? What tools are needed when crossing chains? There is a very important concept behind this: Liquidity Fragmentation. Simply put: funds that could have formed a large market are dispersed$XAU: Follow the trend to go long
📉 Core Strategy
· Direction choice: Prefer high sell and low buy. Aggressive traders can take a light long position near 4,450 with a stop loss at 4,425; conservative traders are advised to wait for the non-farm payroll release and then follow the immediate direction.
· Key levels: The first support below is at 4,460; if broken, look for a strong support zone at 4,430; the first resistance above is at 4,500, and a breakthrough targets the key resistance at 4,546.
⚖️ Core Basis
· Macro game (non-farm pricing): The market expects about 56,000 new jobs in August non-farm payrolls. Given that the "small non-farm" ADP only increased by 38,000, and the September rate hike probability is already priced in. If tonight's data exceeds expectations strongly (>100,000), it will reinforce the tightening logic, and gold prices may test support at 4,430 or even lower; if the data is weak or meets expectations, it will trigger a "bad news is priced in" rebound, targeting around 4,550.
· Technical resistance: Gold rebounded from the bottom to about 4,500 on September 3, currently below the daily 200-day moving average and the strong resistance zone at 4,546 USD.
#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 DOGE is around 0.088 today. Yesterday it surged from 0.081 to 0.090 in one go, then overnight it fell back from 0.088 to 0.0865, and now it's stuck at 0.088.
The 0.080 level has already turned into support, and yesterday's bullish candle solidified 0.084 again. It couldn't hold 0.090, and the floating supply from the 0.10 spike is still there.
If it loses 0.086 again, it will look bad. If it wants to move, it needs to reclaim 0.090 at least. Don't chase highs at this position; wait for it to choose a side on its own. $DOGE About tokenized stocksAn Ethereum whale has liquidated all 167,855 ETH over the past 5 trading days, cashing out a total of $408 million.
The recent market trend is quite interesting: each rally is accompanied by large institutional sell-offs, but the market shows strong support, with shallow dips and an overall firm base.
In this environment where selling pressure is continuously released yet the market withstands the pullbacks, this round of the market indeed has a chance to challenge previous highs.
Note: The above is only a summary of market views and does not constitute investment advice.
This market analysis involves a lot of on-chain data and market logic. The work task mode can help you retrieve more whale movements on-chain and organize a complete analysis. Would you like to use it to continue?$SPCX FOMO traders are starting to get conflicted. It pushed from 140.50 to 152.87, up nearly $12, but it just can't break through 152.87. Bernstein said Louisiana's Starship base launches 30 times a day, and SpaceX's fundamentals are indeed strengthening. But with SPCX's contract structure, despite continuous positive news, the price just won't move up—every time it nears 150, someone sells off. SAR is at 142.31, EMA21 at 145.09, all have been surpassed, J value is 83.46, momentum is weakening. At this point, those chasing are betting that 152.87 isn't the top, while holders are hesitating whether to take partial profits near 150. SpaceX is a good company, but unlocking expectations have been weighing it down. If even news like launching 30 times a day can't push the price, the market might really be waiting for something more certain.
Do you think it can hold above 150 this time? 🫡There is a large amount of market activity every day, but not all of it belongs to you. One of the biggest misconceptions many traders have is thinking that whenever there is a significant price movement, they must participate. However, the more complex the market, the easier it is to trigger wrong judgments. Truly mature individuals allow themselves to say "I don't understand." Not understanding is not shameful; forcing participation is dangerous. Just like a person wouldn't enter an industry they completely don't understand just because they see others making money, trading should also have its own limits of capability. Only trading what you understand does not mean fewer opportunities, but rather that every trade is clearer about the risks you are taking. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 $ZEC Recently, many people are wondering: why did $UNI suddenly surge? The essence of a coin rising is simple—buy orders > sell orders. UNI just hit the right spot this time. UNI hit three resonance points this round; let me break them down one by one. The first engine: On-chain activity heats up, protocol revenue soars. I don't need to say much about the current on-chain market status, right? The more active the trading, the more fees UNI, as the largest DEX liquidity hub, collects. Latest data: 24-hour protocol fees reached $13 million, ranking second among all protocols, only behind Tether. But Tether earns by using users' funds to buy government bonds and profit from the interest spread—in other words, a traditional financial institution's approach. Excluding Tether, UNI is the top money magnet among all crypto protocols, bar none. Traffic comes in, toll fees are collected, and the protocol's account balance grows—this is the first layer of logic. The second engine: converting revenue to cash, buybacks ramp up. The protocol makes money, how does it reflect on the coin price? Buyback and burn. Recently, UNI's daily burn volume hit over 100,000 tokens, with a burn value of about $600,000. This data was unseen before. Buying 100,000 tokens daily from the market and burning them—supply decreases, demand stays the same or even increases, so the price naturally goes up. This is the second layer of logic. The third engine: price comparison effect, funds start scooping up. This might be the most critical. The other two recognized “money printers”—$PUMP and $HYPE—have already multiplied several times from their previous lows.MEME代币冲高回落，Robinhood链吸血效应减弱，CASHCAT、PONS等Meme币种反弹明显 9月4日，据GMGN行情，单日市值一度破亿的Meme代币MEME伴随美股AMC盘前股价回落而明显回调，现报约9113万美元。其资金分流效应减弱后，Robinhood链上主流Meme币种反弹明显，CASHCAT市值报2.84亿美元，近1小时涨6.34%；PONS市值突破7.4亿美元，再创历史新高，近1小时涨10.19%。 根据GMGN行情数据，代币MEME今日一度成为Meme市场焦点，单日市值突破1亿美元，其炒作热度与美股AMC盘前股价走势形成联动。随着AMC盘前股价回落，MEME价格同步明显回调，市值降至约9113万美元，显示该代币的上涨高度依赖短线情绪与跨市场叙事炒作，缺乏持续性资金承接。 Meme市场中存在典型的资金分流现象：当某个热点代币快速拉升时，会在短时间内吸走链上流动性与用户注意力，形成对其他币种的吸血效应；一旦热点降温，资金又会快速轮动回此前被压制的标的。本次MEME回调后，Robinhood链生态内主流Meme币迅速反弹：CASHCAT市值回升至2.84亿美元，近1小#沃勒: August inflation will determine whether there will be a rate hike in September Tonight at 20:30, the US August non-farm payroll data will be released, with the market expecting an increase of 56,000 jobs. My judgment is: leaning towards a mild positive, but beware of a rise followed by a fall. My core judgment logic The crypto market has already priced in some of the benefits of cooling rate hike expectations, with $BTC standing above 81,000 and $ETH approaching 2,500 USD. Considering the previous ADP small non-farm data surprise, the probability of weak non-farm data tonight is high. As long as the data does not significantly exceed expectations, rate hike expectations will further cool, supporting the market. Three scenario simulations Data mildly weak (high probability): This is the market's most preferred "soft landing" scenario. After BTC stabilizes above 80,000, it can try to go long accordingly, with the upper target at the 82,000 resistance level. Data far exceeds expectations: Rate hike expectations rise, the US dollar strengthens, if BTC falls below 80,000, a light short position can be tried, with the downside target at 78,000. Data extremely weak: Triggers recession panic, funds collectively sell off risk assets, do not blindly bottom fish, prioritize watching. Risk control reminder Volatility will surge significantly before and after the non-farm data release, with BTC short-term fluctuations often exceeding 3%-5%. Absolutely do not heavily bet on a single direction, high leverage must reduce positions in advance and set stop losses to avoid flash crashes and liquidation. The above is only personal trading thoughts and does not constitute investment advice; please be cautious when entering the market. It's over
$ETH No more attachment, originally thought that if tonight's non-farm payroll expectations were poor, the market might continue to lower the September rate hike expectations, but currently the market consensus is too unified. It's very likely the data will indeed be weak, then there will be a spike followed by a sharp drop. Additionally, the US House of Representatives canceled two weeks of meetings in September, which is very important for the crypto space (the CLARITY Act). The probability of it passing in 2026 is now very slim. The House will meet again only after the midterm elections in November, by which time the current president will most likely be a lame-duck president facing many constraints. Therefore, I am not optimistic about the bull market that many bloggers are talking about. Currently, there are no signs of a bull market coming. On the 17th of this month is the Federal Reserve meeting, and on the 18th is the Bank of Japan's rate decision. The Bank of Japan's rate hike is basically a done deal, whether it's a 25 basis point or a 50 basis point increase. For the crypto market, which is highly liquid, there will be no cheap money and a severe liquidity drain. So, the crypto market is very likely to experience a major drop after mid-September. Recording this to see if it plays out as I observe $$SPCX rocket station above 150!
The long-term bullish news for the rocket surge is that SpaceX plans to invest about $100 billion to build a new Starbase launch site. Last night it directly broke through to 152 with volume, currently fluctuating around 150. The follow-up depends on the capital's ability to support; if there is no capital support at 150, it will basically dip. Yesterday, the US stock market opening drove a direct rise, with turnover rate increasing from the previous 0.65% to 1.64%, indicating that market enthusiasm is gradually increasing. A surge will face high-level profit-taking, mainly depending on whether subsequent capital support is strong and whether trading volume expands simultaneously.
There are still several batches of shares to be unlocked later. Steel Brother will continue to monitor the flow of on-chain funds and stock market performance, and will provide updates accordingly.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ $BTC $ETH A Friday full of game theory — Nonfarm payrolls lead, USD/JPY interest rate differential closeout as a potential risk, crude oil prices bear tail risk volatility! Tonight will be the most important and game-theory-filled day of the week. Due to Waller's speech yesterday guiding the market to reduce September rate hike expectations, the current probability of a September rate hike is 52.4%, a key game-theory point. The primary focus tonight is the nonfarm payroll data. Waller's optimistic guidance on inflation has weakened the market's September rate hike probability, so the market is betting on whether tonight's nonfarm data can further reduce the September rate hike probability. It should be noted that employment is not simply better the weaker it is: a) Unemployment rate at 4.1%, employment growth of 50,000-100,000 is moderate growth; if wages also grow moderately, it will not weaken the September rate hike probability but slightly increase it. b) Unemployment rate ≥ 4.1%, employment growth weaker than 25,000 or lower, wage growth slows; although this weakens the September rate hike probability, it triggers employment deceleration risk. Combined with this week's mild stagflation mix, it means the market will anticipate recession early and worry, so this is not good data. c) Unemployment rate at 4.1%, employment growth above 100,000, indicating a hot labor market; if wages grow, it will increase the September rate hike probability. Therefore, under current conditions, the best combination that neither triggers risk nor weakens the rate hike probability is an unemployment rate of 4.2%, employment growth of 20,000-50,000, year-over-year wage growth of 2.8%-3.0%, and month-over-month ≤ 0.2%. Yen appreciation, stronger rate hike expectations, and the weakening of the USD September rate hike probability will instead create liquidity risk.I calmly accept the feeling of stable returns brought to me by entering and exiting positions according to signals, which makes me feel very secure,
rather than craving a trade that can immediately catch the trigger point and make a big profit at once, which does not give me a sense of security.
The former is a complete acceptance of the uncertainty in the market and a reflection of the limitations of human cognition,
making me understand the importance of capital management and realize the essence of trading to make big profits and small losses,
while the latter only intensifies my arrogance of omnipotence and obsession with market certainty, leading to frequent heavy positions and self-destruction.
$BTC $ETH #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ The most worth discussing topic today, I think, is not the non-farm payrolls
Nor is it some meme coin skyrocketing, but rather OKX bringing $OPENAI, Anthropic, and Moonshot equity tokens onto contracts. Behind this lies a major trend: the wall between crypto and the US stock market is quietly being chipped away.
Many people have underestimated the significance of this. Previously, if you wanted to bet on AI giants, you either had to buy indirect plays like Nvidia or participate in private placements in the primary market, which ordinary people simply couldn't access.
Now OKX directly offers OPENAIUSDT, ANTHROPICUSDT, MOONSHOTUSDT, effectively opening a window for crypto players to bet on AI company valuations using USDT. Just think about how many people who envy Nvidia but fear chasing highs can now express their optimism about OpenAI on a familiar interface. The potential for incremental capital inflow is considerable.
But why do I say most people haven't noticed the real risk? These equity tokens are synthetic assets; their prices track primary market valuations and sentiment, not actual stocks. They have shallow liquidity, and pricing power lies with market makers and arbitrageurs. If regulators one day declare these products illegal, they could be delisted instantly, leaving you no room to argue.
AI assetization will be the sexiest new narrative in the second half of the year. OKX has taken the lead, and most other exchanges will likely follow. There's great short-term speculative value, but don't treat these as real equity for long-term holding. The real mainstay remains solid hard assets with earnings like Nvidia and SanDisk. Opening this window is a good thing, but don't stick your head out too far—the wind is strong.Nonfarm Preview: Multiple Signals Point to a High Probability of Weak Data
⚠️ Macro analysis only, not investment advice
This round of nonfarm payrolls is highly likely to fall below market expectations, with multiple leading signals collectively bearish.
ADP small nonfarm data has significantly cooled, private employment momentum continues to slow, combined with continuous downward revisions of previous employment data, clearly indicating a weakening U.S. labor market.
Macroeconomic easing expectations are heating up across the board: veteran hawk Waller has turned dovish, acknowledging inflation cooling and leaning toward pausing rate hikes. Meanwhile, both Trump and Vance have publicly pressured the Federal Reserve to cut rates, maximizing political easing demands. Additionally, U.S. Treasury repo operations are supporting liquidity, creating a friendly environment for risk assets overall.
If this nonfarm data weakens and wages fall back, it will fully confirm the cooling employment trend, further suppress rate hike expectations, and boost rate cut sentiment. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will face downward pressure, benefiting stocks, gold, crypto, and other risk assets.
Only a small probability of a hot nonfarm report would reverse easing expectations; overall, the market favors weaker data. Volatility during the nonfarm night will be intense, so strict risk control and waiting for structural confirmation are essential.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #长端美债收益率维持高位，债务压力升温 #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 $BTC $ETH $TRUMP 美国现货比特币 ETF 资金大幅回流。 9 月 3 日，该类产品录得 7.309 亿美元净流入，创下自 1 月中旬以来的单日最大增量。受资金面刺激，比特币同步反弹，推动相关 ETF 总净资产升至 1033.4 亿美元，约占比特币总市值的 6.32%。 贝莱德领跑吸金 •IBIT（贝莱德）： 吸金 4.54 亿美元，稳居增量主力 •ARKB（Ark）： 净流入 1.38 亿美元 •FBTC（富达）： 净流入约 7400 万美元 •小幅流出： VanEck 与 WisdomTree 旗下产品合计流出近 2500 万美元 现货买盘支撑反弹 在此之前，市场曾经历短暂赎回（9 月 1 日流出 2.36 亿美元），但随即快速修复。机构分析指出，此轮比特币上涨主要由现货买盘推动，而非杠杆清算；期间期货未平仓量有所下降，显示市场结构相对健康。目前，此类 ETF 累计净流入已提升至 554.4 亿美元，机构通过合规渠道配置加密资产的需求依然强劲。$BTC $ETH #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 View for the evening of September 4th
Overnight, the Fed's dovish remarks cooled rate hike expectations, driving a sharp rebound in gold prices. Today's market is overall cautious and volatile, with all focus on the major non-farm payroll data tonight.
Geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to provide safe-haven support, but before the data release, there is intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with the market mainly in a wait-and-see repair mode. The non-farm payrolls will directly determine the short-term direction of gold's rise or fall.
After the rebound, gold prices faced resistance at high levels and pulled back, currently consolidating in a range during the evening. The four-hour bullish repair structure remains intact, but short-term upward momentum is slowing.
Resistance above is at 4500-4510, with key support below at 4430-4450. This is currently a consolidation phase after the rebound; no chasing gains or guessing a one-sided move before the data.
Reference: Treat as range-bound before data
Buy on dips at 4430-4450, target 4490-4510; if the rally fails to break resistance, short on pullbacks $XAU After thoroughly analyzing the details of the CLARITY Act, my illusions about compliance have been completely shattered.
Everyone in the community is counting down to the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15. Many think that compliance implementation and big players entering the market are huge positives. I thought so too at first, until I carefully examined the core provisions of the draft.
The draft requires token issuers to complete transparent disclosure, mandates that over 85% of assets must be custodied by licensed trust institutions within the United States, and strictly prohibits unregistered front-end interfaces from charging any transaction fees. This is not issuing a birth certificate for the industry; it is a targeted purge against native on-chain teams.
Wall Street can spend tens of millions of dollars annually on legal fees without batting an eye; trust custody is just moving money from one pocket to another. But for a DeFi development team of about ten people, exorbitant compliance consultant fees and licensing costs can directly drain the project’s treasury, and the front-end ban instantly cuts off the decentralized protocol’s ability to self-sustain.
As Arthur Hayes said, the intention of this framework is to have Wall Street fully take over the wealth creation channels into their own game. When the threshold is so high that only traditional giants can afford to play, retail investors will have to pay through layers of commissions at counters. The window for ordinary people to participate in early-stage dividends through information asymmetry and on-chain liquidity is being permanently sealed off.
After September 15, do you think the crypto space will become better or more expensive?
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 83,000 still remains a watershed, is $BTC this time a real breakout or another bull trap?
$BTC has returned to $80,000, but the market has not formed a consensus expectation.
The bearish side believes that the short consolidation of just over ten days is insufficient to hold steady between 83,000 and 86,000, and the next step will most likely be a pullback to 70,000 to 72,000 to confirm support.
The bullish side regards 76,000 as the lifeline; as long as it does not break, 86,000 is the real resistance level, and holding it could lead to an advance to 100,000.
The funding situation is also contradictory.
Recently, the US spot Bitcoin ETF once saw a net outflow of over $200 million in a single day, ending the previous consecutive days of inflows, with the total scale falling below $100 billion.
However, there are still institutional buyers with ample funds who have stated they will continue to increase their BTC holdings.
There are already many US crypto ETFs, but funds are highly concentrated in one or two leading products, accounting for nearly 40%, with mature institutional channels and concentrated risks.
Short-term trading volume has clearly increased, with more funds flowing into high-volatility targets, indicating a rise in risk appetite, but mainly speculative rather than allocative.
Right now, it is not simply a bull vs. bear battle, but a simultaneous occurrence of long-term buying and short-term profit-taking.
If BTC can stand firm with volume between 83,000 and 86,000, 100,000 may not be far away.
If ETF funds continue to weaken, 70,000 to 72,000 may be the next test. CAPITAL IS RETURNING — BUT NOT EQUALLY
Crypto ETF flows are showing clear divergence:
• $BTC → -$236.46M
• $ETH → +$10.95M
• $SOL → +$10.19M
• $XRP → +$14.38M
On September 1, $BTC ETFs recorded significant outflows, while $ETH, $SOL and $XRP continued attracting capital.
This is not confirmation of a full altseason.
But it shows capital is becoming more selective.
The bigger question now:
Where will the next wave of capital flow?
$SOL
$ZEC
#BTCGoldRatioHigh