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MARSCOIN high-level distribution confirmed: the main force is not trying to trigger a long squeeze, but to reverse and kill the shorts!
Good news fully played out is bad news, pumping relies on news, dumping relies on strength. You focus on the 0.14 increase, the main force focuses on your principal.
Binance listing news released on September 1, price rose from 0.052 to 0.14, a 3x increase has fully digested the good news, currently in the "sell the news" phase. TOP1 address sold off $2.31 million in batches, early sniper address cleared $800,000, main force chips are transferring, not accumulating.
205,000 short orders piled up at 0.0932, if the main force wants to trigger shorts, pulling to 0.093 is enough, but price still hovers at 0.12 without attacking, indicating no intention to pump, only to distribute at high levels.
Tycoon operation suggestion: short in batches around 0.120—0.125
Personal view: high volume with stagnant rise, continuous capital outflow, obvious signs of main force distribution.
The main force is unloading, don’t be the last bag holder #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 $BTC $ETH You don't need to look at the news for TRIA right now; the order book funds have clearly indicated the direction themselves. The main buy orders consecutively consumed three large orders between 0.004880 and 0.004920, and the sell one depth has withdrawn from 190,000 tokens to around 70,000 tokens, which is not something ordinary retail investors can do. On-chain tracking found two addresses that had been inactive for nearly seven days suddenly withdrew a batch of TRIA from the exchange, and after transferring, there was no selling pressure; the whales have drained liquidity at the low position. The funding rate has risen from negative 0.03 to positive 0.01, and shorts near the current price have started to be passively liquidated. Just after sending an order and leaning by the roadside flipping through the screen, the call to urge the order rang again, but this structure indeed looks like the usual short squeeze setup. Operationally, the pullback zone from 0.004920 to 0.005030 is the bulls' defense area; the current price at 0.005020 is a direct entry point, with a stop loss set strictly at 0.004750—breaking below indicates the whale withdrawing tokens is only a temporary defense. Take profit first targets 0.005360, which is a dense previous high trading area; a breakout will push further to 0.005600. Keep your position light; don't gamble with your living expenses.
$TRIA
#OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线
@OKX星球 The underlying logic behind breaking through 81000: This wave is not a rebound, it's institutions quietly building positions
Many only see the market rally and shorts being flushed out when the price stabilizes above 81000 this round.
But yesterday, I was watching not the candlesticks, but the most authentic on-chain capital behavior.
This rise hides three very abnormal and highly indicative details that fully explain the current real market situation.
First, the spot trading volume in this rally has directly tripled or quadrupled, but the contract open interest did not follow with a surge.
This is very critical, indicating that this increase is not driven by leverage or speculative capital games.
It's a genuine market formed by active spot buying and order absorption.
Moreover, the main battlefield for the big players is the deepest liquidity pool on Binance.
Whales choose to accumulate in batches here with a simple purpose: not to induce short-term rallies, but for deep accumulation and controlling slippage, a typical mid-to-long-term layout strategy.
The second subtle signal comes from whale funds.
Yesterday, the net inflow of whales in a single hour exceeded 2000 BTC, but the average single order was just over 50 BTC.
Those familiar with on-chain data understand that real big players dumping or violently pumping the market place large orders of several hundred BTC at once.
This high-frequency, small-amount, continuous order splitting is a typical institutional algorithmic and programmatic batch accumulation.
No market disruption, no panic, quietly and continuously accumulating is a very standard long-term layout move, definitely not short-term speculation.
The third key point most people overlook:
Alongside this BTC rally, the scale of altcoin deposits to exchanges has simultaneously tripled.
In normal markets, altcoins flooding exchanges usually means retail investors cashing out in panic.
But combined with the current strong spot volume of BTC, the logic is completely reversed.
This wave looks more like market funds actively reallocating portfolios, retail investors exchanging low-position altcoins and exiting, while capital gradually concentrates on BTC as the leader.
It also shows that market risk appetite is slowly recovering, and the bottom chip replacement of altcoins is basically nearing completion.
Stacking these three data sets together, the conclusion is very clear and transparent:
This rally is not driven by emotional FOMO, short squeeze, or technical rebound.
It is institutional capital systematically and strategically building positions during a low-volatility phase.
What the market lacks now is just the final volume-confirming breakout candle; the capital base has long been laid out.
The biggest loss in trading is waiting until the market is completely clear and everyone is boasting online before entering.
By then, the sentiment is in place, profits have long been taken, and only high-level bag holding remains.
I will stay out of the market for now and watch. If there is a chance for a pullback, I will choose to enter a position
$BTC #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ Many people see BTC suddenly surge, and their first reaction is: "What exactly happened today?" But I prefer to look at it in reverse. This rally wasn't a sudden buying move within a few hours, but rather a result of accumulated funds, expectations, and short positions in previous days, which were finally released at key levels. BTC had been fluctuating around 77,000–78,000 for the past few days, which seemed uneventful, but in reality, the market structure was already changing. The latest data shows that the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of about $731 million, the largest single-day inflow since January this year; BlackRock's IBIT absorbed about $454 million. In August, US spot BTC ETFs attracted about $3.5 billion in cumulative funds. So this breakout did not happen out of nowhere. There is also a more direct catalyst: expectations for Fed rate cuts and rate hikes are beginning to reprice. Fed official Christopher Waller said that if inflation continues to improve, he supports keeping rates unchanged in September. Subsequently, market bets on a rate hike in September dropped significantly, and both the dollar and Treasury yields weakened, giving risk assets some breathing room. Thus, the entire chain became clear: ETFs continued to attract funds → repeatedly absorbed selling pressure around 77K→ interest rate expectations shifted to → dollar/yield pressure, easing pressure on → BTC breaking through 80K→ short covering further amplified the rally. Writing 🔥 2027年牛市主旋律之一：为什么我认为 $ZEC 迟早会挑战 $10,000？ $ZEC 突破 $1,000 之后，很多人第一反应是： “涨太多了，已经贵了。” 但在我看来，真正值得关注的，反而是它正在完成一次市场认知上的重新定价。 $ZEC 最强的地方，并不只是最近的涨幅，而是它同时具备几条非常容易被市场理解的核心叙事： • 2,100万枚固定供应上限 • PoW 共识机制 • 零知识证明技术 • 原生隐私与隐私支付 更重要的是，隐私叙事正在重新进入市场视野。 Grayscale 此前将 Zcash 视为知名的隐私型区块链之一，并指出随着 AI、稳定币以及链上金融活动不断发展，金融隐私的重要性可能重新受到关注。 这才是我真正看重 $ZEC 的原因。 牛市资金从来不只是寻找“便宜的币”，而是在寻找： 大叙事 + 稀缺性 + 强共识 + 足够大的想象空间。 所以，$1,000 看起来很贵。 但如果未来市场真的开始把 $ZEC 重新定价为： “加密市场的隐私资产代表” 那么 $1,000 可能并不是终点，而只是新估值体系的起点。 当然，$10,000 并不是说一定会到BTCFi Four Kings Ultimate Review: Steady, Hardcore, Elastic, Ambush — Who Is the True Leader of the Bull Market?
⚠️ This article only outlines the track logic and project architecture and does not constitute any investment advice.
The Bitcoin ecosystem bull market wave continues to advance, with many investors confusing STX, CORE, MERL, and BABY as all BTCFi track targets.
In fact, they are completely different levels, logics, and capital narratives.
The four projects respectively represent the four top BTCFi schools: Native Steady, Full-Chain Infrastructure, Inscription Elasticity, and Underlying Security. Their underlying architecture, asset risk, growth potential, and capital logic differ vastly.
1. Core Positioning of the Four Schools: Clearly Distinguish the Hierarchy
STX | Native Steady School: The Orthodox Bitcoin L2 Benchmark
Stacks is the earliest and most orthodox L2 infrastructure in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
It does not alter Bitcoin’s base layer; relying on PoX consensus + a dedicated programming language, it realizes on-chain smart contracts on Bitcoin and builds a complete BTC-denominated DeFi system based on sBTC.
Advantages: orthodox ecosystem, high institutional recognition, most stable trend.
Drawbacks: not EVM compatible, slower ecosystem expansion, limited explosive potential.
Positioning: BTCFi defensive leader, following a long-term steady compound growth path.
CORE | All-Purpose Infrastructure School: Bitcoin’s Only Independent L1 Public Chain
The biggest market misconception: treating CORE as a Bitcoin Layer 2.
CORE is an independent Layer 1 public chain, not L2!
It relies on exclusive Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus, leveraging Bitcoin’s entire network hash power as a security base, fully EVM compatible, truly a "Bitcoin Supergrid."
Coverage: BTC staking, institutional lstBTC liquid staking, SatPay payments, lending, RWA real-world assets; the only BTCFi leader with a complete commercial revenue system.
Entering cash flow profitability era in 2026, with real business, real institutional demand, and real buyback expectations.
Positioning: BTCFi aggressive infrastructure leader, largest growth potential, most hardcore narrative.
MERL | Inscription Elasticity School: Dedicated Channel for Bitcoin Native Assets
Merlin Chain focuses on ZK Layer 2 + inscription ecosystem, precisely solving BRC20, Ordinals asset congestion, and high Gas fees.
All ecosystem activity, popularity, and capital are tied to the Bitcoin inscription cycle.
Advantages: extremely strong bull market elasticity, highest gains during hot trends.
Drawbacks: market highly dependent on sector sentiment, no independent narrative, strong cyclical nature.
Positioning: BTCFi cyclical speculative target, riding waves and trends.
BABY | Underlying Security School: Bitcoin Security Leasing Dark Horse
Unique and completely differentiated track.
Does not do DeFi, trading, or applications; only one thing:
Zero-risk staking of Bitcoin native assets and full-network PoS public chain security leasing.
User BTC remains in native addresses throughout, no custody, no cross-chain, no wrapping; the highest security model in the BTCFi network.
Earns continuous income by "renting out Bitcoin’s top-level security," belonging to the most fundamental and essential public chain infrastructure narrative.
Positioning: ultra-long-term ambush-type underlying dark horse, highest odds.
2. Asset Security Hierarchy (The Most Important Watershed in BTCFi)
✅ BABY | Ceiling-Level Security
BTC remains in native UTXO addresses throughout, pure cryptographic staking, zero custody, zero wrapping, zero bridge risk, absolutely secure assets.
✅ CORE | Non-Custodial Hardcore Security
BTC locked with Bitcoin mainnet timelocks, principal never leaves BTC chain, no institutional custody risk, only data relay synchronization, extremely low risk.
⚠️ STX | Consortium Multi-Signature Mode
Asset security depends on node consortium; although there is a penalty mechanism, theoretical risk of consortium misconduct exists.
⚠️ MERL | MPC Custody Mode
Assets require custody mapping; native BTC leaves mainnet, exposing institutional counterparty risk.
3. Value Capture Logic: Determines Bull Market Multiples
STX
Pure ecological consumption + BTC-denominated staking yield, slowly raising value through ecosystem expansion, steady but slow.
CORE
Dual staking lockup + 2026 cash flow realization
lstBTC institutional service fees, cross-border payments, on-chain fees, future revenue buybacks
— the only BTCFi leader transitioning from "storytelling" to "real money earning."
MERL
Inscription ecosystem fees + 50% profit buybacks, market fully follows sector bull and bear cycles, high elasticity, weak sustainability.
BABY
Continuous income from full-network public chain security leasing fees, unique track, long-term value severely underestimated.
4. Ultimate Summary: Four Targets Suit Different Investors
✅ Seeking stability, holding long-term, avoiding volatility: choose STX
Bitcoin native orthodox, heavy institutional holdings, most stable trend.
✅ Riding the bull market main rise, earning growth dividends, focusing on fundamentals: choose CORE
BTCFi’s only L1 infrastructure + only cash flow track, core mainline of this bull market.
✅ Speculating on hot trends, capturing waves, playing cyclical markets: choose MERL
When inscription trends arrive, elasticity crushes the field.
✅ Low-position ambush, betting on underlying narrative breakout, super high odds: choose BABY
The safest BTC staking model in the network, underlying infrastructure dark horse.
The true money-making logic in the bull market:
Not randomly buying BTCFi, but selecting the mainline that fits your style.
#STX #CORE #MERL #BABY #BTCFi$ETH currently: stair-step upward trend, narrow high-level oscillation
ETH has been moving quite solidly in this wave: gradually stepping up from around 2,405, with support holding at 2,500 on pullbacks
Today it pushed up again to touch 2,547, then slightly retreated, now oscillating narrowly at a high level around 2,524, with a slight intraday increase of 0.28%
Moving averages show a standard bullish alignment: price is above MA5/10/20/30/60, short-, medium-, and long-term all diverging upward, with lows continuously rising, indicating a bullish trend without issues
Volume also supports this, with increased volume during the initial rise and breakout phases; recent sideways volume is average, representing a pause after the rise
Short-term resistance is at 2,547; if volume increases and it holds above this level, continuation is possible; support is first at 2,517–2,521 (dense MA20/30 area), if broken then look at 2,511 (MA60), with strong support at 2,481
Overall, the trend is oscillating but biased bullish; chasing highs has average cost-effectiveness, better to wait for pullbacks to support zones to stabilize before entering.There is one thing I find very interesting. If you asked 5 years ago: What is Bitcoin? Most answers would be: "A speculative asset." "Cryptocurrency." "Bubble." "Gambling." But if you ask the same question today... I think the answer has started to change. Many people no longer see Bitcoin as: A coin. But have started to see it as: A new type of financial asset. In my opinion... this could be the biggest change in Bitcoin's history. And also the thing the market is most underestimating. 💣 BITCOIN IS NO LONGER JUST ABOUT C What is the predicted impact of today's upcoming non-farm payroll data release on cryptocurrencies ($BTC, $ETH)? Here are three forecast indicators: 1: Non-farm > 100,000 (bearish for crypto) — the market will believe the US economy remains strong, and the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a hawkish stance or even raise interest rates. 2: Non-farm between 30,000 and 80,000 — this is currently the most concentrated range of market expectations. 3: Non-farm negative again (bullish for crypto) — however, the market already knows July's non-farm was negative, so to trigger a super rally, the data needs to be significantly worse than expected. From the perspective of information and capital flow: today's biggest risk is not a weak non-farm report, but a non-farm result that exceeds expectations strongly.LATEST: Ukrainian police busted a Kyiv-based crypto drainer ring accused of stealing up to $1M a month by tricking victims into signing malicious wallet-draining transactions.
$UNI Are traditional brokers building a cryptocurrency supermarket?
Charles Schwab is preparing to add $SOL, AVAX, and $LINK to its cryptocurrency trading services.
I think the really interesting part isn’t that Solana has another trading venue, since there are already plenty of exchanges in the crypto space. The bigger change is where investors can access it.
If people can eventually hold stocks, bonds, ETFs, and some crypto assets all in the brokerage accounts they already use, then the decision to buy SOL will be very different from opening an exchange account, completing another set of onboarding steps, and transferring money into a completely separate financial ecosystem.
For years, crypto companies have been trying to convince traditional investors to enter the crypto space. But now traditional finance seems to be taking the opposite approach: bringing crypto assets to places investors are already familiar with.
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ Tonight's biggest variable: US August nonfarm payroll data (released at 20:30)
Whether Waller's dovish stance can translate into concrete rate cuts at the Fed meeting depends on tonight's nonfarm employment report
and next week's CPI data.
✨If the data misses expectations (bullish): rate cut expectations heat up, BTC is expected to break through the $83,000 resistance, opening the way
for a surge toward $100,000
✨If the data exceeds expectations (bearish): expectations for prolonged high rates strengthen, BTC may pull back from highs, with the next defense line near $70,000
Additionally, the market is already positioning ahead of the September 15 CLARITY
Act expectations, and with news resonance, market volatility will be further amplified.
✌️✌️✌️
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ Tonight at 20:30 Nonfarm Payrolls, it's time to open the blind box again
The market currently expects 56,000 new nonfarm jobs in August, a clear rebound compared to July's -23,000; the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.1%, while wages are forecast to slow from 3.2% year-on-year to 3.0%
If employment significantly exceeds expectations + unemployment rate does not rise + wages are relatively strong, that is a typical hawkish combination, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar are likely to rise, while gold, BTC, and U.S. stocks will come under pressure
Conversely, if employment continues to be weak, unemployment rises to 4.2%, the rate hike expectations will most likely cool down further, and risk assets will feel much more comfortable
This is a moment of great volatility for $BTC, friends with positions remember to manage risk!
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #沃勒：August inflation will determine whether there is a rate hike in September
Today's ETH is giving the bears hardly any breathing room. $ETH $BTC
Earlier, the low was around 2405, then it rebounded all the way up, reaching a high of 2542, with an intraday increase close to 5%.
This surge is not because ETH suddenly had some super positive news.
Mainly, BTC returned above 80,000 USD, boosting the overall crypto market sentiment. Coupled with earlier weak employment data, market expectations for further Fed rate hikes have cooled, and funds have started to bet in advance that tonight's non-farm payrolls won't be too strong.
Simply put, today's rise is driven not by the story but by expectations.
However, as the market stands now, a problem has emerged.
ETH has risen more than 130 USD from the low, and the 2540–2550 range is a clearly visible resistance zone. Although the price has surged above it, it hasn't truly held steady yet.
Currently, ETH is oscillating around 2520, more like both bulls and bears are waiting for the non-farm payrolls to give the final direction.
If the non-farm payrolls are clearly weaker than expected and the market continues to trade on easing expectations, once ETH holds above 2550, it could continue to push towards 2580–2600, and shorts may be forced to cover their positions.
But if employment data is stronger or wage growth exceeds expectations, US Treasury yields and the dollar will rise again, and the funds that bet early on the positive news may cash out. ETH would first retest 2500, and if it breaks below, then look towards 2470–2480.
If the data basically meets expectations, be cautious of the most annoying pattern:
First a spike up, then a sharp drop, clearing both bulls and bears, and finally the price returns to the original range.
So tonight, the real focus is not guessing the non-farm number but watching how ETH chooses.
Watch if 2550 can hold above, and if 2500 will break below.
Holding above 2550 means bulls continue to control the initiative.
Breaking below 2500 means today's rally might have been an early overextension of expectations.
I personally tried a light short position around 2525, but this is just my attempt at the resistance level and does not mean the market has turned bearish.
Next, let's let the data speak.
The first candle tonight might be lively, but the real direction often only appears after the market calms down for a few minutes.#RobinhoodChainRevenue Robinhood Chain is becoming an important case study in how a major financial platform can monetize on-chain activity. Arbitrum DAO reported approximately $6.19 million in first-half income with gross margins above 97%, while Robinhood Chain introduced an additional revenue stream through its licensing and ecosystem agreement. This means Robinhood’s blockchain activity may benefit not only its own platform but also the infrastructure supporting the network.
The development could strengthen the argument that application-specific chains are commercially viable when connected to an existing distribution channel. Robinhood already serves customers interested in stocks, options, and cryptocurrency, so it does not need to build an audience from zero. Still, investors should separate network revenue from token value. ARB’s market capitalization can rise much faster than the actual income reaching the ecosystem, creating valuation risk if activity slows. The most meaningful indicators will be monthly active users, repeat transactions, fee sustainability, and the amount of revenue ultimately retained by Arbitrum. On September 4, the Nikkei 225 index closed up 1.26%, ending at 65,020.94 points, rising 806.46 points in a single day, breaking the previous four consecutive trading days of decline. This rebound was led by AI and semiconductor heavyweight leaders, with SoftBank surging about 12%, contributing 474 points to the index; Advantest drove 196 points, and chip stocks like Kioxia and Ibi Electric also strengthened simultaneously. Coupled with the overnight recovery in the US tech sector, market risk appetite was restored.
The market showed clear divergence: the Nikkei rose sharply, but the TOPIX, which represents the overall market performance, only rose slightly by 0.03%, indicating that the gains were concentrated in a few large-cap heavyweight stocks rather than a broad-based rally. The Nikkei still accumulated a decline of about 2% this week overall, and this rebound is more of a technical correction after overselling; the adjustment trend has not yet been confirmed to have ended.
Key signals to watch going forward include: whether the index can hold above the 65,000 level; whether SoftBank and semiconductor leaders can maintain their strong performance; and the pressure brought by the yen's strengthening. The yen appreciated by 2.2% this week, with market expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike heating up, and the appreciation will continue to suppress export companies' profits. A short-term rebound does not equal a trend reversal, and multiple variables need to be continuously monitored going forward. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Now we are just waiting for tonight's 8:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll data.
This small Nonfarm Payroll already set a precedent, with August ADP adding only 38,000 jobs, below the expected 48,000, marking the smallest increase since January this year.
Along with the unimpressive JOLTS job openings and manufacturing PMI, the market's expectations for tonight's data have become quite cautious.
However, the Federal Reserve's stance is also quite subtle; Waller said if inflation cools down, he supports holding steady, but if it's too hot, he would consider raising rates.
Williams also said more data accumulation is needed before making decisions.
So tonight's employment report may not directly determine whether to raise rates in September, especially since CPI and PPI inflation data are still pending.
But the market will definitely react first, so manage your positions well and avoid betting on a one-sided move.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC In real life, a transfer takes two seconds, but on-chain transfers feel like "defusing a bomb"? 😅
Sometimes it’s really frustrating. If you want to do something on-chain, you first have to go through:
1. Frantically searching for the official cross-chain bridge;
2. Nervously watching if the authorized contract will empty your wallet;
3. Staring helplessly at the stuck Gas fees in the block, unable to move.
No wonder Web3 has been shouting about breaking through for so many years, yet it’s still blocked by high barriers.
Why does ACO insist on perfecting the experience and the underlying closed loop?
It’s to eliminate all those inhuman frictions.
To make sending messages, interacting, and running apps as natural as using WeChat, letting technology adapt to people, not the other way around.
Only when crypto products become as foolproof as everyday software will the industry truly enter its spring.
Which complicated on-chain interaction has ever frustrated you? Vent in the comments below 👇
#ACO #Web3PainPoints #UserExperience #BlockchainDaily #BreakingThrough Tonight at 20:30, the non-farm payrolls report is the last official employment report before the September FOMC meeting. The market generally expects an increase of 53,000–56,000 (July was -23,000), an unemployment rate of 4.1%, and a year-over-year decrease in hourly wages to 3.0%. ADP was only 38,000, initial jobless claims 206,000, ISM services employment at 47.8, with leading indicators collectively weak — the probability of a weak non-farm payrolls report is not low.
Impact by scenario:
• Increase <30,000: The probability of a rate hike drops further from 50%, the 10-year US Treasury yield falls below 4.75%, the dollar breaks below 99, BTC's rebound to 81,000 is confirmed, with potential to reach 83,000–85,000;
• Increase 50,000–80,000: In line with expectations, market fluctuates, with resistance at 82,000–83,000 difficult to break in one go;
• Increase >95,000: Hawkish return, US Treasury yields rebound, BTC retests 77,000–78,500, giving back half of last night's 5% gain.
Waller's dovish remarks last night have already lowered the rate hike pricing from 63% to 50%. BTC took the opportunity to pull back from 77,000 to 81,000, ETH back to 2,500, with 440 million in 24h short liquidations — this rebound is driven by macro short covering plus ETF net inflows of 731 million, not an independent bull market.
⚠️ Do not chase highs before the non-farm payrolls. Weak data's positive effects are easily retraced, strong data leads to immediate declines; wait for the data to settle to see if 80,000 can hold, only a volume breakout above 83,000 confirms a right-side entry, otherwise cash is king. The market is always fair:
It rewards patience and punishes impatience.
It rewards restraint and punishes greed.
Technical skills can be learned, but human nature is the hardest to cultivate. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #Crypto just had the kind of move that can make the market look stronger than it really is. 💥 $140M+ shorts liquidated in ~1 hour And suddenly: $BNB → above $720 $BTC → back toward $81K $ETH → pushing higher $XRP → joining the move But here’s the real question: WHO BUYS AFTER THE SHORTS ARE GONE? 👀 When resistance breaks, short sellers are forced to buy back. Price rises → more shorts liquidate → more forced buying → price rises again. That’s the liquidation feedback loop. But forced buying doeAfter Waller's no-show, the probability of a September rate hike dropped directly from over 60% to 50%, and $BTC surged past 81,000 in one go, reaching an intraday high of 82,300 USD.
The privacy coin sector was the strongest in this wave, with the entire sector rising over 6% intraday and trading volume soaring nearly 30%. Zcash skyrocketed 17%, approaching the 1,000 USD mark, hitting a new high since 2018. DASH also rose 17%, breaking through 50 USD. Besides the macro sentiment warming up, Zcash's technical breakthrough shifting from PoW to PoS also helped fuel the rally.
The three major US stock indexes all rose over 1%, with the Dow surging 624 points. Tech stocks led the charge, Tesla up over 5%, SpaceX up over 6%. Cryptocurrency concept stocks were even stronger, Strategy surged over 17%, Coinbase rose over 10%.
On the A-share side, it opened high but closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.3%. However, the digital currency concept saw a violent intraday surge, with Chutianlong hitting the daily limit up in one second. AI application concepts also collectively strengthened, with Longban Media achieving 5 consecutive limit-ups. The agriculture sector was active against the trend, with multiple pork stocks hitting limit-ups. In Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index rose 437 points, Meituan up over 5%, and both Construction Bank and Bank of China hit new historical highs.
Gold also rallied, with spot gold standing above 4,473 USD. However, how far this wave can go still depends on subsequent data.$DOGE is holding above the key $0.085 area after breaking through this hurdle, with price also above the MA5, MA10 and MA20. Buyers are maintaining control, but $0.08998 is the immediate resistance ahead. The key question is whether $DOGE can turn the $0.085 breakout into sustained momentum. A break above $0.08998 could open the way toward $0.10092, while rejection may bring a short pullback. $DOGE is at an interesting point, so the next reaction is worth watching.#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
This time, I don't want to argue whether BTC counts as digital gold.
One BTC can now be exchanged for about 18.17 ounces of gold, hitting a new high since January. This number doesn't mean BTC is about to replace gold, but rather that in the recent market, investors prefer flexibility.
Simply put, gold is like a safe haven, moving slowly but providing peace of mind; BTC is more like a speedboat—when liquidity returns, it surges faster than anyone, and when the waves come, it flips faster than anyone.
Now with cooling expectations for rate hikes and falling US Treasury yields, BTC naturally feels more energetic than gold.
But the problem is clear: there is heavy sell pressure around 80,000 to 82,500, and ETF funds have been flowing in and out since early September, without forming the momentum of blindly buying in.
Some continue to call it a bull market, but Jiang Zhuoer has cleared his position near 82,050 USD.
Putting who is right or wrong aside, I want to see if there is real money buying when BTC pulls back to 80,000.
If every dip is bought up by spot buyers and ETFs see continuous inflows again, then 18.17 might not be the end.
But if future gains rely solely on leverage and 82.5K remains stubbornly unbroken, the higher this ratio climbs, the harder the fall might be.
My judgment is: BTC still has a chance to outperform gold in the short term, but 80,000 must change from a "check-in point" to a "footing point."
Holding ground is true strength; failing to hold is just rushing up to take a photo.
$ETH MEME market cap falls below $90 million, leading FOMO platform users show clear divergence. On the evening of September 4, MEME coin MEME continued to fall, with market cap dropping below $90 million and now at $85.18 million. Leading FOMO users have clearly divided views on this round of market activity: some have reduced their positions and exited, even falling into unrealized losses, while some users have increased their positions against the trend, while early low-level traders remain on the sidelines. According to GMGN market data, MEME continued to fall this evening, with its market cap dropping below $90 million and now at $85.18 million. During this correction, the trading paths of leading FOMO users have diverged significantly, becoming a market focus. Specifically, top user Change with 338,000 followers on the platform invested nearly $38,000, gradually reducing MEME holdings starting this afternoon. Currently, the floating loss on the position is 9.13%, representing a high entry position and passive stop-loss in this round. In contrast, user @yaevwastaken (3,338 followers) chose to increase their positions against the trend, cumulatively buying nearly $50,000 worth of MEME with an average entry price corresponding to a market cap of $102.5 million, betting on a rebound after a pullback. User @rasmr (48,910 followers) sold $24,000 worth of MEME 11 minutes ago, but his cumulative profit from his position has reached $818,000, a typical profit-taking. DeGods founder @frankdegods, who entered at a low price, already bought at a market value of only $133.Tonight at 20:30, the US August non-farm payrolls (expected new jobs: 55,000, unemployment rate: 4.1%) is the last employment trump card before the September FOMC.
Logic chain: Weak non-farm (<30,000) → rate hike probability drops from 50% again, US bonds fall below 4.7, dollar breaks 99, BTC expected to retest 77,000 then surge to 81,000–83,000, ETH rebounds above 2400; Strong non-farm (>90,000) → rate hike returns as main theme, dollar rallies, BTC dips to 76,000, ETH tests 2355; Neutral (40,000–60,000) → two-way spikes to stop losses, waiting for September CPI guidance.
Waller already priced in a 50-50 "dovish" stance yesterday. If BTC has already risen above 81,000 during the day, the landing is likely a positive realization. The focus is not on the non-farm number itself, but on how it changes the rate hike probability — crypto trades the denominator, not employment.If we look at it by real-world standards, 90% of on-chain operations are suspected of "seriously disrupting traffic" 🚦
In reality, you transfer money or buy a coffee, and it’s done with a beep in 0.5 seconds.
But in some crypto networks:
1. First confirm if you’re connected to the official RPC;
2. Pray the cross-chain bridge doesn’t get stuck halfway;
3. Stare at the burning high Gas fees in deep thought, wondering if you’re bidding on some spaceship.
Technology should make life simpler, not force people to earn a blockchain engineering master’s degree.
ACO’s confidence lies in its obsession with a "low-friction experience":
Setting aside those gimmicky illusions, it compresses crypto socializing, asset transfers, and daily interactions into a fast-response closed loop.
Making sending messages as natural as Swap transactions is the only right way for public chains to achieve large-scale adoption.
What’s the most frustrating on-chain lag you’ve experienced? Vent in the comments 👇
#ACO #UserExperience #BlockchainDaily #EfficiencyRevolution #Web3PainPoints $XRP displays strong upward momentum on OKX after breaking out from its recent low of $0.9872 to trade around $1.4505, with the Supertrend indicator ($1.2961) signaling a solid bullish trend supported by key moving averages (MA5 at $1.3969 and MA10 at $1.3998).
#DailyOrbit @OKX中文 A couple of days ago, OKB dropped, and some people on the planet were already bearish, saying it would fall to 80U, 70U.
Haha... It's only a matter of time before OKB breaks the previous high of 258U. Last August, OKB surged dramatically, but that kind of rapid spike is unsustainable. The current steady 45-degree gradual climb is the stable trend.
I reduced a small portion of my position when OKB was in the 40s. At that time, during the rapid rise, I regretted buying too little. When it reached the 120s, I added more. This year, when it dropped to the 60s, 70s, it was an excellent opportunity to build a position. I hold firmly; time will provide the answer. The market's current sprint feels like a 100-meter dash—
ADP was weak, Waller turned dovish,
Champagne popped twice, BTC surged to 81,000, and gold followed the party.
But retail investors are still confused: Did I just miss out on another billion?
Calm down for a second—
Service sector inflation hasn't eased, oil prices are still hovering above 90,
Even if non-farm payrolls are weak, would the Fed just decide "no hike" outright?
The real decision-makers are next week's CPI and PPI; tonight is just a trailer.
Here's the question:
The market is already hyped up like this, what if tonight's data "meets expectations"?
It'll rally first, then take profits—same old story.
Monday is a US holiday, a three-day break giving the big players enough time to set a perfect trap.
If non-farm payrolls show negative growth and unemployment spikes to 4.3%,
we'll see a repeat of early last month’s drama—
A spike followed by a drop, with those chasing highs becoming fuel again.
My stance:
Don't rush at the top; wait for the data to settle before making moves.
Right-side trading lasts longer than betting on news.
(Just my personal speculation, DYOR)
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
$BTC $ETH $ZEC This isn’t just another altcoin breakout. $ARB has ripped from the $0.07 area, with Robinhood Chain becoming a serious revenue catalyst for the Arbitrum ecosystem. And the numbers are getting harder to ignore. 👀 Robinhood Chain went live on July 1 and is built using Arbitrum’s tech stack. On Sept. 1, the chain reportedly hit a record ~$3.75M in daily fees, while DEX volume pushed above $1.5B and TVL moved past $750M. Under the Arbitrum Expansion Program: → 10% of Robinhood Chain’s net protocol Many friends are curious why ZEC has surged to the top spot on the popular list, while the veteran leader BTC has fallen to third place. Today, let's briefly talk about the reasons behind this.
You can see that ZEC's increase reached 5.61%, showing strong short-term momentum, attracting a lot of capital attention, and instantly heating up, directly topping the trending searches. BTC is currently down slightly by 0.22%, with the market stuck in high-level oscillation and no explosive moves in the short term, so market attention naturally declines.
The ranking on the crypto trending list is not based on market cap size but mainly depends on short-term capital heat and price volatility. BTC's market cap is too large, making it difficult to have a single-day surge. Recently, it has been grinding back and forth at high levels, lacking a trigger point. In contrast, ZEC belongs to the privacy coin sector with a smaller market cap, so a small amount of capital entering can drive a big surge. After the surge, retail investors flock to discuss it, search volume skyrockets, easily grabbing the top spot on the list.
The list's heat only reflects short-term sentiment and does not represent long-term strength. ZEC is highly volatile; its market moves come fast and go fast, and the heat can subside at any time. BTC remains the ballast stone of the crypto world. Don't just focus on trending searches chasing hot spots; short-term popular coins carry high risks. Always view the list's heat rationally and avoid blindly following the crowd into the market.
$BTC $ETH $SOL The impact of non-farm payroll data on the blockchain sector is mainly reflected in the following aspects. Data performance: new jobs added fall within a moderate range of 50,000 to 80,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. Market reaction: indicates employment is still moderately expanding but at a slow pace, insufficient alone to determine the policy direction for September. The market will continue to watch next week's CPI inflation data.
Impact on the crypto sector: the crypto market is very likely to maintain the current box consolidation pattern (for example, Bitcoin trading between $70,000 and $83,000), waiting for the next macro catalyst! $BTC $ETH $DOGE #沃勒：August inflation decides whether to raise rates in September
Three consecutive wins in September, I am Xiaoxin
Tonight at 8:30, August non-farm payrolls, the last piece before the FOMC.
Waller already softened his tone on September 3: inflation continues to cool, he supports holding steady; only if data is too strong will he consider continuing to raise. After his speech, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from over 70% to 50.2%.
The market expects this non-farm payroll increase to be 56,000-58,000, with unemployment steady at 4.1%. But the previous July figure was -23,000, and May and June were revised down by a total of 103,000. ADP only gave 38,000, the weakest since January. Employment data has been cooling for three consecutive months.
Bank of America said bluntly: non-farm payrolls are just an appetizer, CPI is the main course that decides whether to raise rates in September. Inflation is the current core anchor.
Three scenarios:
Non-farm below 40,000, rate hike expectations continue to cool, BTC has a chance to rebound to 79,000-80,000.
Between 50,000-80,000, direction is unclear, continuing to oscillate and wear down.
Above 100,000, rate hike expectations confirmed, BTC continues to be under pressure, looking down to 75,000 or even 72,000.
But the problem is, employment is cooling while oil prices are still rising. Brent has already broken 95, 54% of the 178 PCE sub-items rose more than 3% year-on-year, compared to 47% a year ago. Employment calls for cooling, inflation calls for heating, the market cannot price unilaterally.
So don't bet on the data, wait for it to land before acting. Tonight's non-farm payrolls are just the appetizer, next week's CPI is the decisive battle.
$BTC $ENS 1H LONG
Entry: 5.90–5.95
TP1: 5.977
TP2: 6.006
TP3: 6.12
Stop-Loss: 5.82
ENS is consolidating beneath 6.006 while all three moving averages slope upward. A break below 5.82 would weaken the post-breakout structure.
NFA manage risk carefully.
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC Waller's major tone setting! Non-farm payrolls are just an appetizer; next week's CPI is the main event
Last night, Bitcoin suddenly surged violently late at night, which was not a sign of market stabilization at all, but completely driven by a single statement from Waller!
He directly set a fixed rule for the September rate hike: whether to raise rates or not will not depend on tonight's non-farm payrolls, but only on next week's CPI inflation data!
After the news broke, the market instantly changed dramatically:
The probability of a September rate hike was halved from over 70% to 50%, U.S. Treasury yields quickly fell, the dollar weakened, directly pushing $BTC to a strong rebound late at night.
Many people are suspicious: Has the veteran hawk Waller suddenly softened? Is this truly good news or just a smokescreen?
Honestly: Officials always leave room to maneuver in their speeches; you absolutely cannot blindly be bullish!
He is only adjusting market expectations, not completely turning dovish; ultimately, everything depends on the real data.
Tonight at 20:30, the non-farm payrolls are just a short-term emotional disturbance with limited and brief impact.
The real determinant of Bitcoin's trend and the key to September's monetary policy is next week's king-level CPI data!
Even if tonight's non-farm payrolls are positive, as long as inflation rebounds, rate hike expectations will immediately return.
Currently, $BTC is stuck at the high level of 81,000, with the 80,000 mark being the critical line between bulls and bears; the divergence is huge and the battle fierce.
At this stage, firmly do not chase the highs; just closely watch whether the 80,000 support can hold.
⚠️ The above is only personal market insight and does not constitute investment advice; profits and losses are your own responsibility.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ $ETH $ZEC $BTC
Price has to re-entered the old range.
After yesterday’s push above $82k, BTC has now started to pull back and is currently trading right below the highs of the range again.
Now that we got a confirmed close below $80.8k it will be interesting to see if price respects the upper boundary as resistance.
If it does, we might see a deeper pullback towards the lows of the range where the $77k support level sits that has buyers multiple times over the past two weeks. #WallerEyesAugCPI Nonfarm payrolls far exceed expectations (for example, more than 100,000), unemployment rate remains at 4.1% or even declines, and wage growth accelerates.
Market reaction: Strong employment data combined with current inflation pressures will reinforce the view that the labor market remains resilient, quickly heating up expectations for a rate hike in September. The US dollar strengthens, US Treasury yields rise, and risk appetite is dampened.
Impact on crypto sector: The interest-free asset characteristic of cryptocurrencies reduces their appeal under tightening expectations. Major assets like Bitcoin will face significant selling pressure, with prices possibly testing key support levels (such as around $70,000), and highly leveraged long positions face cascading liquidation risks $BTC $ETH $SOL $XPL 1H LONG
Previous long reached TP1 and TP2.
Entry: 0.09987–0.10040
TP1: 0.10087
TP2: 0.10248
TP3: 0.10500
Stop-Loss: 0.09780
XPL remains firmly above rising MA5/10/20 following the expansion from 0.09187. Holding 0.09987 keeps the breakout continuation active.
NFA manage risk carefully.
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC 🚨 JUST IN: JAPAN’S REMIXPOINT GOES BITCOIN-ONLY. ₿
Remixpoint just dumped its entire altcoin bag:
$ETH → SOLD
$SOL → SOLD
$XRP → SOLD
$DOGE → SOLD
💰 Total sales: ~$5.5M
📈 Realized profit: ~$737K–$747K
🐕 DOGE was the only loser.
Now the company holds roughly 1,506 $BTC worth ~$115M+ as its only crypto asset.
And there’s another interesting angle:
Remixpoint has also generated 14.92 BTC in lending fees since February, adding another revenue stream to its Bitcoin strategy. Friday Midday Briefing
After a morning frenzy of thematic rallies, market heat cooled off at midday. Mainstream coins remain stuck moving sideways within their ranges, with no improvement in the sector divergence. Strong themes continue to oscillate at high levels, while previously surging coins show signs of profit-taking, further shrinking the market's money-making effect.
Overall selling pressure has not been released in a concentrated way, but trading volume still lacks effective expansion. New external funds remain on the sidelines, while internal funds rotate quickly and hotspots switch faster. High-level themes continue to drain market bullish sentiment. The market still lacks a clear direction, entering a phase of high-level divergence and turnover after continuous rallies.
BTC
Current price around 81150, continuing to grind within a high-level range, upward momentum weakening.
Multiple attempts to test resistance above at midday; buying support below is decent, but upward attacks lack volume support, with clear selling pressure overhead. The large-scale range structure remains intact; short-term is a digestion and consolidation after continuous rises. If volume does not pick up, there is still risk of a pullback to test support after a rally.
Overall view: High-level consolidation and digestion; volume will determine the height of the next move. Wait quietly for the market to give direction.
ETH
Current price around 2520, moving in tandem with BTC, lacking independent positive catalysts.
Holding key support zones with slight oscillations; rebound elasticity is insufficient, price action highly dependent on BTC. Resistance at 2530-2560 is strong; only a volume-backed break above can open further upside. If rebound stalls and weakens, downside support will be retested.
ZEC
Current price around 1002, violent surge followed by intense high-level volatility, increasing divergence.
After short-term speculative frenzy, long-short battles intensify with frequent spikes, purely emotion-driven thematic trading. Short-term explosive power is strong, but if funds collectively take profits, the pullback will be rapid. Support at 960-975, resistance at 1035-1060.
USELESS
Current price 0.2512, group trading continues, high-level divergence expanding.
Contrarian independent strength remains; bulls inside the market are strong, but high-level profit-taking accumulates, increasing risk of a catch-down drop. Support at 0.2260-0.2360, resistance at 0.2700-0.2840. Suitable only for very small position speculation; strictly avoid heavy buying at highs.
SOL
Current price 103.6, highly elastic coin oscillating with the market, limited rebound strength.
Moves passively with mainstream, no active main fund entry; price fully dependent on BTC trend. If the market weakens, it is likely to face renewed downward pressure. Focus on volume changes during rebound phases. Support at 100.2-101.8, resistance at 107.0-109.6.
EDGE
Current price 0.6110, profit-taking continues, downtrend unchanged.
Previous speculative run ended; profit-taking persists, upward structure weakened, rebounds face selling pressure. Sector heat quickly fades; do not blindly bottom-fish just because the market oscillates. Support at 0.5700-0.5900, resistance at 0.6600-0.6860.
TRUMP
Current price 2.372, meme heat continues cooling, funds keep flowing out.
Theme heat gradually fades; funds flow to other hotspots, overall entering sideways consolidation, lacking new inflows. Support at 2.22-2.28, resistance at 2.46-2.54. Thematic rotation yields low cost-performance; mainly wait and see.
Market Summary
Current core: Extreme structural divergence within ranges, existing funds battling; cannot confirm adjustment is fully over.
For rebound continuation, two necessary conditions: sustained volume expansion during rebound, and thematic money-making effect spreading to mainstream coins. If unmet, the market will continue to tug back and forth, with risks of spikes and pullbacks remaining high.
Trading Strategy
Do not chase intraday spikes; avoid heavy positions in high-level themes; observe support strength on pullbacks.
BTC: Watch support at 79500-79900; follow through on volume breakout above resistance.
ETH: Closely monitor 2530-2560 resistance; do not chase highs if rejected.
ZEC, USELESS: Thematic emotional trading with violent swings; light positions only; no chasing at highs.
SOL, EDGE: Weak rebound strength; do not add positions without volume; stay cautious.
TRUMP: Theme heat fading; avoid active trading.
$BTC C $ETH $SOL
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线
#英伟达拟以129.3亿美元收购HuggingFace #clarity Act faces delay as Senate reduces 8 voting days
The CLARITY Act faces delays: Senate reduces 8 voting days, lowering the probability of passage in 2026
The advancement of the U.S. CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Structure Act) has encountered obstacles again. Due to congressional schedule adjustments, the Senate has about 8 fewer working days available to advance the bill, impacting the previously anticipated fast-track progress.
Impact factors
1. Noticeably narrowed time window
The Senate is expected to hold a key procedural vote (cloture, to end filibuster and start formal consideration) on September 15. However, this vote does not represent the final passage of the bill; subsequent steps still include:
Debate, amendment of clauses, final vote. If the Senate amends the bill, it must be sent back to the House for confirmation.
2. Compressed House schedule
The House has canceled some voting sessions in the last two weeks of September, reducing 8 legislative days. If the Senate amends the bill, the House may not have enough time to reconsider it before the midterm elections Waller's few words directly dropped the probability of a September rate hike from 63% to 50%, and risk assets immediately took off on the spot. $BTC surged past $82,000 in one go, but now it's hovering around $81,000 again.
The most explosive sector this wave is the privacy coin sector, which rose more than 6% intraday, with trading volume surging nearly 30%. Zcash skyrocketed 20% in one day, once breaking through $1,023 intraday, surpassing the $1,000 mark for the first time in eight years, pushing its market cap into the top ten crypto assets. DASH also rose 17%, breaking through $50.
The three major US stock indexes all rose more than 1%, with the Dow soaring over 600 points. Tech stocks led the charge, Tesla up more than 5%, SpaceX up more than 6%. Cryptocurrency concept stocks were even stronger, with Strategy surging over 17%, its market cap approaching $56 billion.
On the A-share side, the digital currency concept violently surged, with Chutianlong locked at the daily limit by a large order of over 100 million yuan within 1 second of opening. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong opened 1.2% higher, and tech stocks collectively rallied.
Gold also rallied, with spot gold rising above $4,480. However, how far this wave can go still depends on tonight's non-farm payroll data.#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？
As of September 4, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has risen to 18.17, reaching a new high since January this year, meaning 1 Bitcoin can now be exchanged for just over 18 ounces of gold. Bitcoin surged more than 5% that day, briefly breaking through $82,000, while spot gold also briefly surpassed the $4,500 mark. Both assets rose simultaneously, with investors buying both to hedge against currency depreciation risk.
The August CPI data on September 11 is the biggest variable: Waller has clearly stated that his September rate decision stance will entirely depend on the August inflation data. If the CPI exceeds expectations and heats up, renewed rate hike expectations could simultaneously pressure both Bitcoin and gold. CRYPTO IS MOVING FAST BULL MARKET CONFIRMED?
$BTC has pushed above $81K and briefly tested $82K, while $ETH reclaimed $2.5K and $SOL moved back above $104.
The strength is real, but the move has been fast. Momentum is improving, yet short-term pullbacks and profit-taking can still appear.
For now, I’m bullish on the momentum but I’d rather see the market hold these higher levels before calling it a confirmed bull run.
No FOMO. Let price confirm the trend.
#DailyOrbit $DEGEN 1H SHORT
Entry: 0.001120–0.001160
TP1: 0.001068
TP2: 0.001030
TP3: 0.000980
Stop-Loss: 0.001205
The 0.001350 spike was followed by sustained selling, leaving price below MA5 and MA10. Reclaiming 0.001205 would weaken the bearish continuation structure.
NFA
manage risk carefully.
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC The early morning market scenario played out as expected.
Positioned long at the 80300‑80800 support range, the price bottomed and rebounded, successfully reaching the first target.
Using technical structure as the basis, validating the approach with market movements.
Steady in prediction, focused on execution. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 $BTC $ETH $SNDK SanDisk's candlestick chart is like a rocket shooting straight into the sky; the main force is determined to make a move!
The previous small pullback was just to scare retail investors and wash out the unsteady chips. Now that the load is lighter, it's easier to push up. The price is steadily holding at a high level, like reaching a flat spot halfway up a mountain—taking a breather before the final climb.
Support is seen at 1570-1580; if it doesn't break, it's a good entry point. Resistance is at 1620; breaking through will lead to a big surge.
Be cautious as the storage sector has seen increased volatility recently, with some funds taking profits at high levels. Short-term chasing of highs requires caution.
For those wanting to learn more trading ideas and real-time levels, follow Ali! #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 The current U.S. labor market is in a structural equilibrium state of "low hiring, low layoffs," even approaching "no hiring, no layoffs." Combining recent ADP employment data and seasonal patterns, the market's forecast for this nonfarm payroll report shows the following characteristics:
Market consensus expectations: Mainstream institutions expect the August nonfarm payroll increase to be between 53,000 and 58,000, with the unemployment rate expected to remain around 4.1%, and the year-over-year growth rate of average hourly earnings expected to slow to 3.0%.
Significant Wall Street divergence: Wall Street's forecast range for the data spans as much as 150,000 (ranging from -25,000 to +125,000). Some pessimistic institutions (such as Bank of America and Citibank) predict new jobs of only 20,000 to 40,000, with some even forecasting possible negative growth again; optimistic institutions (such as Wells Fargo) believe the abnormal decline in July will be corrected in August, expecting an increase of 80,000.
Seasonal weakness characteristic: Historical data shows that August nonfarm payroll data has a 71% probability of falling below market expectations, and the initial August figures in the past four years have all been revised downward later, increasing the risk of this data falling short of expectations $BTC $ETH $ZEC 9.4 #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
Two very important data points will determine whether to raise or cut interest rates!
The first is tonight's major non-farm payroll data, one of the most important non-farm payroll data points of the year for August, which will decide whether to raise or cut rates. Tonight's data is unlikely to exceed or fall below expectations!
The second is the August CPI to be released next week. These two data points will determine the Federal Reserve's policy meeting in September, which will decide the trajectory of global stock markets, gold, crypto, and other assets in the second half of the year!