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$BTC just surged strongly around 82K, but there are 5 notable risks below: 1️⃣ Short squeeze pushed the price too fast — just yesterday, hundreds of millions of USD in short orders were liquidated. 2️⃣ ETF hasn't truly exploded — after strong capital inflow in August, early this month saw a withdrawal session of over 236 million USD. 3️⃣ The 82–83K resistance is extremely tough — this is a key zone; rejection could trigger profit-taking. 4️⃣ Brent oil near 96 USD — US–Iran tensions could drive inflation up, making it difficult for the Fed to ease. 5️⃣ US jobs report today 2026.9.4
In the next two months, the price of $ETH is highly likely to maintain a volatile but slightly bullish pattern. After the recent rapid rise, the price will most likely consolidate first before seeking a new breakout direction.
From a technical perspective, the 2300–2400 range is an important support zone. As long as this range is not effectively broken downward, the medium-term bullish structure remains resilient. On the upside, pay attention to resistance near 2560, 2750, and 3000 dollars. If trading volume surges and an effective breakout above 2560 occurs, ETH will further move toward the 3000–3300 range. (However, still be cautious of a drop toward 2000; avoid high leverage.)
From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, dollar liquidity, and geopolitical situations remain key variables affecting crypto assets. If risk appetite significantly declines causing $ETH to break below 2200, be prepared for the price to further fall to around 2000.
Therefore, in the next 2 months, you can use a martingale strategy to go long on $ETH, adding some trailing stop-loss short positions to capture gains on both sides.
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Playing with crypto these past few years, the biggest realization isn’t how much I’ve earned, but how dumb I really am.
At first, I knew nothing, blindly following the “teachers” in the group to chase DOGE, staring at the K-line charts at 3 a.m., my eyes nearly blinded.
The first time I made enough to buy a hotpot meal, I thought I was the chosen one, immediately added more, only to wake up the next day with more than half my principal gone.
Later, I learned my lesson and only played with spare money, treating it like buying a lottery ticket, which actually steadied my mindset.
I found the scariest thing in this market isn’t the crash, but watching others flaunt hundredfold gains while struggling to control my own impulsive hands.
I’ve heavily invested in $BTC and bottom-fished $ETH, but surprisingly, the one that lets me sleep peacefully is the most unassuming $DOGE.
Don’t ask me why, maybe it’s because it’s cheap enough that when it drops, it doesn’t hurt, and when it rises, it’s a pleasant surprise.
Now my strategy is super simple: dollar-cost average, then delete the app and go about my business.
All those technical analysis lines and bars? I draw them better than anyone, but when it comes to trading, I rely entirely on my sixth sense.
To put it bluntly, when whales move a finger, our emotions as small retail investors are their withdrawal codes.
The most painful time was after liquidation; I stared blankly at the red numbers and suddenly felt this was no different from gambling, just wearing a high-tech disguise.
Now I’ve learned to take profits and run, never getting attached, even if it soars afterward, I don’t regret it.
A day in crypto is like a year in real life, that’s no joke—I’ve got a few gray hairs now.
But if you ask me if I’m quitting, definitely not, because there’s a new story every day here, more thrilling than any TV drama.
Finally, a heartfelt piece of advice: don’t borrow money, don’t get carried away, and don’t mistake luck for skill.
Earnings are a pleasant surprise; losses are just tuition fees. Life goes on anyway. #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 Bitcoin breaks through the $80,000 mark and then pushes on to $82,000. Many well-known traders and institutions have started to take profits. Market bulls and bears are rapidly diverging. Trader Jiang Zhuoer publicly stated that he has fully liquidated his BTC position at $82,050 and has adjusted his strategy from being bullish on ETH to shorting BTC. In his view, this consolidation period is too short to support a breakout above the strong resistance at $83,000-$84,000. After the price closed above $82,000 with a long upper shadow, it signals a short-term exit. He is now focusing on waiting for the $70,000-$72,000 range to consider re-entering positions. On the other hand, investment firm Multicoin Capital is also gradually selling off HYPE tokens. Since July 28, the firm has sold about $112 million worth of HYPE, with total profits of $64.08 million, yielding a return of over 134%. The most recent large deposit and sale occurred just 3 hours ago. Not only these two transactions, recent on-chain data shows that a batch of institutions and whales who positioned at low levels earlier are taking profits during this rebound. The biggest variable in the current market is the U.S. August non-farm payroll data to be released tonight at 8:30 PM. It will directly affect expectations for a Fed rate hike in September. Possible market reactions to tonight's data: • 📊 New jobs added between 50,000-60,000, unemployment rate at 4.1%: in line with expectations, mild market reaction, focus shifts to next week's CPI • 📉 New jobs close to zero or negative growth, unemployment rate rising above 4.2%: signals weakening employment, significantly lowers probability of a September rate hike, bullish for gold Crazy Pump! 🚀 Is the Bull Market Back? $BTC surged 77.3K → 81.6K, $ETH broke 2.5K, and $SOL reclaimed 104. Momentum is strong, but RSI6 shows $BTC/$ETH are already overbought. 🔹 $BTC: 81.2K | RSI6 79.5 Resistance: 82–82.5K | Support: ~79K 🔹 $ETH: 2.5K | RSI6 76.2 Resistance: 2.53–2.55K | Support: 2.45–2.48K 🔹 $SOL: 104 | RSI6 66.2 Resistance: 105–106 | Support: 101–102 This rally is mainly fueled by short covering ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls. Weak data could push BTC higher, while strong da$BTC
4H chart shows bullish divergence signal + oversold + EMA55 + range bottom
1H chart shows double bottom divergence signal + oversold + two valid candles and successful retest at 82k
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Crypto Morning Report | September 4: Nonfarm Payrolls Ahead — Don’t Rush the Move $BTC is trading around $80,900 (+4.5% in 24H) after briefly touching $82,300 overnight before getting rejected. The $82K area has now been tested and rejected twice, making it a key short-term resistance zone. $ETH is around $2,503 (+4.7%), while $SOL trades near $103.6 (+3.3%). Both are showing signs of short-term overheating after the recent rally. Key signals: 📈 Futures open interest has jumped roughly 8% inBitcoin Bear Market May Not Be Over, New Lows Still Possible
• $BTC surged over 25% in a single week in late August, while $ETH and $SOL gained 34.1% and 28%.
• Fidelity warns the traditional 4 year cycle may not repeat this time.
• The market bottom may have already formed in July or Bitcoin could still retest new lows in November or later.
• Stablecoin transaction volume has reached 2.3x Visa's volume, highlighting continued crypto adoption.
• The RWA sector is expanding rapidlyAltcoins start to show more elasticity: SOL returns to over $100, XRP and HYPE compete for funds!
$SOL is currently around $103.6, up 3.6% intraday, reclaiming the $100 level. ETF funds are still providing support, but 105.5 is the first resistance; if it holds above that, look towards 108. Falling back below 100 means it’s still range-bound, so don’t mistake a long bullish candle for a full breakout.
$XRP is about $1.44, up nearly 6.7% intraday. Last week, spot ETF net inflows were about $110 million, showing that funds are stronger than the price. 1.40 has become support, while 1.48–1.50 is a dense area of trapped positions; only a volume breakout will target 1.55, otherwise expect a pullback after a rally.
$HYPE is around $87.1, up nearly 6.8% intraday. Recently, ETF single-day inflows once reached about $24.42 million, indicating funds are spreading towards highly elastic assets. However, 88–90 is already a resistance zone; holding 83–85 is necessary to maintain momentum for further gains, and breaking below means risk of leverage liquidation.
Looking at US stocks, $CIEN revenue grew 37%, EPS grew 215%, and it raised guidance, yet the stock dropped nearly 11%, clearly a valuation cut by the market; $HPE rose about 5%, with quarterly revenue of $12.2 billion, up 34%; $NTAP rose about 2.5%, with both revenue and EPS beating expectations. The most important thing this earnings season is not just good performance, but whether results exceed the expectations already priced into the stock. Now, as long as the BOJ steps in to buy yen, the US stocks, bonds, and currency markets can all improve. The reason is simple: the funds the BOJ uses to intervene in the yen come from FIMA.
Since Waller took office, the Fed's operational framework has shifted from an ample system to a scarce system, locking in the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet. This has caused severe competition between government financing and private financing. Especially, the debt issuance terms for AI CAPEX by high-tech companies are increasingly approaching the maturity of US long-term bonds, leading to more intense competition between private sector debt and government sector debt.
Once the Bank of Japan utilizes FIMA, the Fed's balance sheet undergoes an expansion. When pledging, the BOJ pledges $10 billion of US Treasuries to the Fed. The Fed's asset side expands while the liability side expands equivalently, printing $100 in cash and depositing it into the BOJ's account at the Fed. When the BOJ uses this money to sell dollars and buy yen to support the yen exchange rate, the Fed's T-account no longer changes; only the liabilities on the liability side shift from reserves held by the BOJ to reserves held by other private banks. At this point, the BOJ's balance sheet begins to contract, returning to normal.
Under the scarcity mechanism jointly created by Waller and Basset, US dollar capital is no longer an indiscriminate liquidity asset but a strict hierarchy based on the holder: US government capital > US private capital > foreign sovereign capital > foreign private capital. When liquidity tightens, the squeeze and sacrifice occur sequentially according to this hierarchy; when liquidity loosens, the release and profits occur in the reverse order.9.4ETH Layout Strategy
Entry Range: Around 2480, pullback support for long positions
Stop Loss Defense: 2450, exit immediately if it breaks below the Bollinger middle band
First Target: Near previous high at 2525
Second Target: 2555, wave target after breaking previous high
Third Target: 2585, extension of the upper Bollinger band
The Bollinger bands opened upward earlier, now starting to contract, currently oscillating around 2500. It did not break the middle band early yesterday, the bullish trend structure remains intact. Continue to follow the trend for long positions today. This month is expected to keep rising. Long-term longs can consider the 2900 resistance level for $ETH #沃勒: August inflation determines whether to raise rates in September Waller said a key sentence last night — August inflation data will decide whether to raise rates in September.
If August CPI and PPI continue recent progress, he supports keeping rates unchanged. If the data is strong, he will consider supporting a rate hike. Saying this is basically handing over the September meeting's trump card to next week's data.
On employment, he gave a "satisfactory" evaluation; initial jobless claims at 206,000 are almost in line with expectations, and the labor market has not collapsed. After the speech, CME's probability of a September rate hike fell from above 70% to 50.2%, with US Treasury yields and the dollar weakening in sync. The market is repricing.
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are the first checkpoint, with market expectations of an increase of 56,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Next week, CPI and PPI are the second. The FOMC meets on September 15-16. Before these three checkpoints are passed, the pricing of a rate hike versus no hike remains roughly split. The market will swing back and forth over these weeks. Everyone remember to manage your positions well $BTC $ETH $ZEC Good morning☀️
There is a line in "The Pursuit of Happyness": Don't let others tell you that you can't succeed.
Happiness doesn't come out of nowhere; all gains come from persistent endurance.
A new day, steady your mindset, and keep moving forward✨
#MorningBTCReview
After a round of rally, the market entered a high-level range consolidation in the morning session. BTC maintained high-level consolidation, driving rotation among mainstream coins like ETH and SOL. The overall bullish structure remains intact, but short-term upward momentum has somewhat diminished. After continuous rises, profit-taking has appeared, and the market no longer accelerates in a straight line; oscillation and shakeout have become the main rhythm.
After the non-farm payrolls release, the market began to reprice rate cut expectations. The volatility of the US dollar and US Treasury yields continues to constrain the market. Large funds have not chosen aggressive attacks, mostly opting for turnover and observation. The previous short squeeze in the contract market has ended, and the long-short game is gradually intensifying.
On the trading side, the major trend remains bullish, but do not blindly chase highs. Pullbacks and oscillations are normal corrections in a bullish market and should not disrupt your rhythm due to short-term retracements. Focus on maintaining position discipline, set stop losses, and leave room for error. Staying in the market is more important than one-time huge profits.
In industry news, Polymarket's massive financing has driven the narrative of prediction markets; Jiang Zhuoer announced his exit from ETH perpetual contracts, again reminding of the risks hidden in leveraged contracts. Most commodities closed higher in the overnight session, and cross-market linkage needs continuous tracking.
Summary: The trend is intact, but momentum is weakening. Wait for the market to choose a further direction. Avoid heavy positions in speculative trades and patiently wait for more certain opportunities. Gm!
Defeat anxiety with action, do one more thing when self-doubt arises
1️⃣【Crypto】Bitcoin returns to $81,000
Easing rate expectations drive market rebound, BTC once rose to $81,200, reclaiming the 50-week moving average. Tonight's nonfarm payrolls and next week's CPI may still change the subsequent trend.
2️⃣【On-chain Meme】Pons fees rank among the market leaders
Pons generated about $6.33 million in fees in the past 24 hours, with a daily trading volume of about $544 million, nearly 25,000 new tokens issued, and on-chain activity continuing to expand.
3️⃣【US Stocks】Tech stocks lead gains, major indices rebound
Dow up 1.18%, S&P 500 up 1.06%, Nasdaq up 1.40%. After bond yields fell, funds flowed back into AI, semiconductor, and crypto concept stocks.
4️⃣【Macro】Service sector prices continue to heat up
US August ISM Services PMI rose to 55.4, input price index rose to 72.6. Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike in September dropped to about 50.4%, with tonight's nonfarm payrolls being key.
$BTC $xQQQ $xSPY US Initial Jobless Claims Rise to 206,000: Labor Market Still Stable, but Cooling Trend Continues
According to the US Department of Labor, for the week ending August 29, initial jobless claims rose to 206,000, with the previous value revised to 204,000 and market expectations at 205,000, slightly above expectations. The four-week average rose to 207,250, and continuing claims increased to about 1.779 million.
📈 Slightly above expectations: bearish for the US dollar and US Treasury yields. 🧊 Absolute level still very low: 206,000 remains near historical lows, indicating no large-scale layoffs by companies. ⚠️ The real focus is on continuing claims: rising to 1.779 million, indicating a slowdown in the speed at which unemployed people are finding new jobs.
Most important for tonight's nonfarm payrolls
This data itself is mildly bearish for the dollar and mildly bullish for gold/US Treasuries/crypto assets, but the impact is limited.
The market is really waiting for the August nonfarm payrolls. Currently, the market worries that:
Initial claims remain low → layoffs are not severe; but hiring has clearly slowed → the labor market is "slowly cooling."
If tonight's nonfarm payrolls are significantly below expectations and the unemployment rate rises, the market will further bet on the Fed turning dovish, with BTC, ETH, and gold likely gaining more noticeable support, while Treasury yields and the dollar come under pressure.
Conversely, if nonfarm payrolls significantly exceed expectations, it may push up expectations for the Fed to maintain high interest rates or even raise them.One chart: 35M → nearly 150M, in less than a month.
Not hindsight.
On 8.24 when it retraced, the exact words were: those who haven't entered can take some.
Later it went on contracts, and in this BSC counterattack, it rose from the dragon one position.
$MARSCOIN
Just one question:
Is 150M a relay, or the peak of this wave?
Report numbers in the comments, not emotions.From last night until now, the core takeaway is one sentence: once the macro expectations shifted, Bitcoin directly led the market in a surge. BTC climbed from around 77,000 all the way up past 81,000, with a high apparently reaching 82,300 USD, rising about 5% in the past 24 hours, causing those who shorted around 96,000 to get wiped out on the spot. The trigger for this big bullish candle is clear: initial jobless claims in the US exceeded expectations, showing signs of weakness in the labor market, plus Federal Reserve Governor Waller hinted that if August inflation data isn't too bad, he supports pausing rate hikes. CME data shows the probability of a September rate hike dropped directly from 63% to around 50%, the US dollar index weakened, and risk assets collectively breathed a sigh of relief. Bitcoin, being the asset most sensitive to liquidity, was definitely the first to jump. Interestingly, although BTC surged enthusiastically, the spot ETF actually saw net outflows for two consecutive days, with $9.3 million flowing out yesterday, indicating that traditional funds are not strongly willing to chase this rally. This round of price increase is mainly driven by on-exchange sentiment and short contract covering. Ethereum also benefited, returning above 2,500 USD, but the ETH/BTC exchange rate is still declining, indicating that ETH's rally is not as strong as BTC's. Looking at OKX's trending list and altcoin performance, the divergence is quite obvious. The top gainers are all familiar names and hot concepts, such as $EDGE and $CHIP rising over 30%, and $ICX, $ZEC, $CORE also following with gains of over ten percent. #FOMC last set of data before: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
US stock market analysis: Waller dovish, indexes collectively rebound
Last night, the three major US stock indexes all rose by more than one percent, marking the largest gain in nearly a month. The Dow rose over 600 points, and the Nasdaq increased by 1.4%. The core reason was Federal Reserve Governor Waller's speech, which was very clear—unless upcoming inflation data suddenly spikes, he tends to support holding off on a rate hike in September.
Once this statement came out, the market's expected probability of a rate hike dropped directly from over 60% to about 50%, and Treasury yields also fell, easing pressure on the stock market. Sector-wise, the seven tech giants all rose across the board, led by Tesla and Meta. Additionally, the yen suddenly surged, weakening the dollar, and gold also rebounded. Bitcoin was even stronger, directly pushing back above $81,000, driving related concept stocks like Strategy and Robinhood up by more than ten percent.
However, don't be too optimistic; the market is still split fifty-fifty on a September rate hike, and we still need to watch the nonfarm payroll and CPI data. In short, last night's rally was Waller giving the market a reassurance pill, but the alarm hasn't been fully lifted yet, so in the short term, follow the sentiment $BTC What happened in the market last night? Let me explain it clearly in 5 quick takes. No nonsense, just the essentials.
Quick Take 1: Waller turns dovish overnight — this is the real trigger for the global surge
Federal Reserve Governor Waller used to be a hawk among hawks, always talking about rate hikes.
But last night, he suddenly changed his stance.
He said: If inflation continues to improve, he supports keeping rates unchanged in September. He also added that the three-month core inflation shows "significant improvement," with a "encouraging" pace.
Once this statement came out, the probability of a September rate hike plummeted from 63% to 50%. CME data was even more dramatic, with the hike probability dropping to just 48.4%, a 15 percentage point drop in one day.
This is the real trigger for the market surge — not technicals, not liquidity, but a sudden easing in policy.
Quick Take 2: Trump’s remarks + easing in the Middle East, geopolitical premium verbally wiped out
Trump said two things last night.
First: "Believe it or not, the stock market will go up."
Second: The military action against Iran "won't last long." The U.S. has removed all Iranian equipment built along the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil price gains immediately slowed.
The geopolitical risk premium was wiped out with just a few words. Risk appetite instantly returned.
Quick Take 3: Treasury Secretary Yellen says inflation is "under control," U.S. bond yields fall accordingly
Treasury Secretary Yellen said in an interview last night: "Overall, prices are coming down, and core inflation is well controlled."
She also specifically mentioned that U.S.-Canada trade friction "has had almost no impact on U.S. prices."
U.S. Treasury yields fell, and the dollar dropped to a one-week low.
Gold surged past $4500.
Quick Take 4: BTC breaks $82,000, crypto stocks rally collectively
Bitcoin surged past $82,000 this morning, up over 5% in 24 hours.
Crypto-related stocks exploded:
MSTR (MicroStrategy) up 17.56%
CRCL (Circle) up 16.44%
COIN (Coinbase) up 10.14%
The Dow rose 1.18%, Nasdaq led with 1.4%. Tesla gained over 5%, Meta over 3%.
Capital is flowing back across the board; it’s not just one sector rising, everyone is buying.
Quick Take 5: What to watch next? September 11 CPI
Waller made it clear — data will decide his vote.
Good CPI → no rate hike → keep rallying
Bad CPI → hawkish turn → pullback
Don’t bet on direction, wait for the data.
CPI release is on September 11, just one week away.
This week, hold your hands.
In summary:
Waller controls rate hike expectations, Yellen controls bond market confidence, Trump controls oil prices and geopolitics — three separate players.
But the U.S. stock market is their shared testicle: don’t touch it, don’t squeeze it, if it hurts, they have to save it.
Last night, the three giants teamed up to save it once.
September 11 will be the real test.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 DON’T PANIC. WATCH THE MONEY.
$BTC is at $80,975, after touching $82,285. The bigger signal isn’t just price: U.S. Spot $BTC ETFs recorded +$301.66M in daily net inflows, with cumulative inflows reaching $55.01B.
$ETH trades around $2,506.79, while Spot $ETH ETFs show +$68.02M daily net inflows and $13.09B cumulative.
Prices may shake, but capital hasn’t left. Don’t stare at one red candle. Watch where the money is flowing.
$BTC
$ETH
#BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge
#DailyOrbit While everyone is celebrating the "Big Three's market rescue," what am I thinking?
First, let's acknowledge the fact — it did rise last night.
BTC briefly broke through $82,000 early this morning, now at $81,100, up 5.19% in 24 hours.
The Dow rose 1.18%, the S&P 1.06%, and the Nasdaq 1.4%. Tesla surged over 5%, Meta over 3%. Crypto-related stocks went even crazier — Strategy (MSTR) up over 17%, Circle over 16%, Coinbase over 10%.
Gold broke through $4,500 during the session.
The Big Three joining forces had an immediate effect.
But I want to ask a few questions.
First, why was a "rescue" needed?
Trump said "the stock market will rise," and to de-escalate the Middle East, saying the military action "won't last long."
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said core inflation "has been well controlled."
Fed Governor Waller — previously a hawkish hawk — suddenly changed stance, saying if inflation improves, he supports no rate hike in September.
Three people, three lines, acting simultaneously.
What does this indicate?
It shows the market was already on shaky ground. The U.S. stock market is their shared asset, untouchable; if it hurts, it must be saved.
But the very act of rescuing the market tells you — there was a big problem before.
Second, how long can Trump's "de-escalation" last?
He said the military action against Iran "won't last long."
But on the same day, he also said he is "ready at any time" to strike Iran again.
On September 1, the U.S. military just launched an attack in southern Iran.
One moment threatening to strike, the next moment not. This back-and-forth itself shows instability.
And what about oil prices? Brent crude nears $96, up 51% year-to-date. WTI has risen over 9% this week.
Can an ever-escalating geopolitical conflict support the optimism of a "market rescue"?
Third, how reliable is Waller's "dovish turn"?
He said — "if" inflation continues to improve, he supports no rate hike in September.
The key word is "if."
August CPI will be released on September 11. The market expects overall CPI year-over-year at 3.4%, unchanged from July.
But what if the actual data exceeds expectations?
Waller would immediately revert to hawkish — don't forget, just two weeks ago, Fed Chair Powell sent hawkish signals at Jackson Hole, pushing the probability of a September hike close to 70%.
After Waller's remarks, the hike probability dropped from 63% to 50%.
50% — meaning half the market still bets on a rate hike.
This is not "the end of rate hikes," it's an "expectation of a pause."
And how far can a rally supported by "expectations" go?
Fourth, what does MSTR up 17% and COIN up 10% mean?
Anyone in crypto knows a rule — a surge in crypto-related stocks often signals a short-term emotional peak.
This is not a fundamental improvement; it's liquidity chasing the last thing it can.
Institutions are buying, but futures open interest is declining. Retail is chasing, but leverage isn't keeping up.
What comes after the peak? Think for yourself.
Stay clear-headed during the party, stay rational during panic.
BTC at $82,000 isn't expensive — if inflation is really falling, if the Middle East is really cooling down, if rate hikes are really over.
But if next week's CPI slaps us in the face — if inflation doesn't fall, if oil prices keep pushing $100, if Waller flips back hawkish —
$82,000 might be lost again.
Buy in batches, keep light positions, wait for data.
September 11 CPI, September 15 FOMC.
Within two weeks, everything can be overturned.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Hello everyone on 2026.9.4, today's BTC outlook and approach still maintain yesterday's view, defined as a major rebound followed by a peak, forming a box range consolidation. The trend still maintains the previous bullish trend formed by the prior upward rally and box consolidation. Currently, after last night's rally, the market has revealed the late stage of a major bullish trend consolidation, with a minor bullish trend pullback. My current approach is to look for positions during the pullback, follow market sentiment, wait for the pullback to stabilize, find entry points, and follow the trend to go long, watching if BTC can break through the current new high BTC82282 and start the second wave of the major rebound.BTC just touched $77,000, ETH fell below $2,400, contract liquidations reached $120 million, and the panic index dropped to 42. Market sentiment has sharply cooled, but on-chain data shows a different picture: the long-short ratio has fallen to 0.85, short positions are becoming crowded, and historically when this indicator falls below 0.9 it often corresponds to a short-term bottom area; exchange lending rates have risen to 4.2%, indicating some funds are taking the opportunity to position. Miner holding costs are around $75,000, close to the shutdown price of some large miners, and historically this range often forms strong support. The USDT OTC premium has turned positive from -0.5% to +0.8%, showing signs of capital inflow, and the total stablecoin market cap has not contracted, with more money staying on the sidelines. The short-term key point is the September 4 employment data: if the data is weak, expectations of rate cuts may rise and boost the market; if the data is strong, the market may continue to oscillate and consolidate. Maintaining discipline during sharp drops is more important than predicting direction; placing orders in batches may be safer than betting all at once. It is important to note that high leverage carries extreme risks during volatile swings, and no support level is an absolute guarantee. Risk warning: The market is highly volatile, please control leverage and positions reasonably and make independent judgments. $BTC $ETHToday, BTC and ETH both rose more than 4% in a single day, accompanied by a concentrated liquidation of native high-leverage short positions and a positive shift in the Coinbase premium index — the driving forces behind this rally deserve a detailed look.
On the funding side, after two consecutive days of net outflows, the spot ETFs of these two major assets both turned to net inflows on 9/3, with BlackRock's IBIT seeing about $300 million inflow in a single day, indicating that this is not just a technical rebound caused by short squeezes but also a return of genuine buying demand. (Figures 1 and 2)
During the same period, gold futures broke through $4500/oz, with a single-day market value increase of over $1 trillion, and the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold rose to a nearly six-year high.
The implication of this combination is that the market is treating BTC as a hard asset for inflation hedging rather than merely a risk-on asset.
Supporting this logic is the PCE data showing that more than half of consumer goods prices have risen over 3%, combined with Vice President Pence publicly urging the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates — both inflation expectations and rate cut expectations are rising simultaneously, a combination historically favorable to hard assets.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
The risk points are:
Large short holders on Hyperliquid still maintain their positions and have not reduced holdings despite recording unrealized losses; this portion of capital constitutes potential fuel for a secondary squeeze and also indicates that resistance remains above. (Figure 3)
The next two observation windows are:
First, when these short positions will start to close and exit; second, whether ETF net inflows can continue to increase over multiple days — this will determine whether this rebound is a pulse or the start of a trend-level move.BTC pulled back from $77,050 to around $80,800. The 4-hour chart has already moved out of the weak zone from the past few days: the price has returned above the short-term moving average, MACD remains above the zero line, and RSI is starting to decline from a high level. The upper shadow near $82,280 indicates that selling pressure hasn't disappeared; the rebound has strength but isn't yet strong enough to ignore pullbacks.
The capital flow supports this rebound. As of now, disclosed data shows a net inflow of $276.8 million into the US spot BTC ETF on September 3, marking the second consecutive day of inflows. The macro picture is a bit contradictory: the August ISM Services PMI rose to 55.4, with the price index at 72.6, the highest since August 2022, but the employment sub-index is only 47.8.
Tonight at 20:30, the US Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released. New job additions are just the first glance; the unemployment rate, wages, and the reaction of the 2-year US Treasury yield are more critical. Capital is flowing back, inflation pressure hasn't fully eased, so BTC is likely not going to be quiet tonight.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Nonfarm #ETF$BTC 重新站上 $81,000，$ETH 也收复 $2,500，市场情绪在短时间内迅速转向。 📊 最新市场动态： • $BTC：一度触及 $81,400，创5月以来盘中新高。 • 清算数据：近期4小时内，约 $334.6M 的加密仓位被清算。 • 其中，空头清算约 $140M+，上涨过程中形成明显的短线逼空。 • 美联储理事 Christopher Waller 的偏鸽派表态，也为风险资产反弹提供了助力。 这意味着什么？ 当市场原本押注继续下跌，价格却突然突破关键阻力位，空头就不得不回补。 价格上涨 → 空头止损 → 强制买入 → 进一步推高价格。 这就是短线逼空的典型机制。 但需要注意： 清算推动的上涨，不等于新增资金已经全面进场。 最新市场分析也指出，近期反弹部分由空头回补推动，而不是完全由新的多头仓位主导。 所以，真正值得观察的不是“空头被清算了多少”，而是： → $BTC 能否守住 $80K？ → $ETH 能否稳定在 $2.5K 上方？ → 反弹结束后，现货买盘是否仍然持续？ 短期看，空头回补可以加速上涨。 中期看，只有真实需求接力，反弹才更有机会延续。 市场从来不会提The ADP 'small non-farm' report exploded first, and BTC surged directly to 81,000! 🔥
The bulls clearly jumped the gun this time.
ADP's 'small non-farm' added only 38,000 jobs, far below market expectations, further strengthening signals of cooling employment. Coupled with the Fed's Beige Book releasing signs of weakening employment, the market's imagination for subsequent easing was instantly reignited.
$BTC retook $81,000, and $ETH also broke through $2,500.
But don't rush to celebrate; the real test hasn't started yet.
The non-farm payrolls announced tonight at 20:30 are the key to determining the direction. The market currently expects about 53,000 new jobs in August.
If non-farm continues to fall short of expectations—
📈 Rate cut expectations heat up
📈 Pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasuries eases
📈 Risk assets may continue to rally
BTC even has a chance to challenge $82,000–$83,000.
But if the data suddenly exceeds expectations, the bulls who entered early today may collectively stampede, and 81,000 could instantly turn from support into resistance.
Positive signals also appear on the funding side: BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $101 million on Wednesday, and ETH spot ETFs have had net inflows for 11 consecutive trading days, totaling about $1.6 billion.
So what really matters tonight is not whether the non-farm is good or bad, but whether it can continue to fuel rate cut expectations.
Soft data, bulls accelerate;
Hard data, early runners may exit first.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 ETF fund flows are diverging, and institutional allocation logic is also changing. 📊 Market observation on September 2: • $BTC ETF: net inflow of about $101.2M, reversing the previous day's outflow of about $236.5M. • $ETH ETF: the continuous 12-day inflow has come to a pause. • $SOL ETF: ended the previous continuous net inflow trend, experiencing outflows for the first time. • $HYPE: officially entered the Hashdex US-listed crypto index ETF, with a weight of about 3.4%, becoming the fund's fifth largest holding. What does this mean? Funds have not simply left the crypto market but are being reallocated among different assets. More importantly, corporate crypto treasuries continue to expand. For example, Strategy recently bought about 4,603 BTC again, with a total investment of about $370M, showing that some institutions are still using market volatility to increase reserves. But this does not mean all treasuries can withstand drawdowns indefinitely. The real test is: → Who has enough cash flow? → Who can keep buying during market downturns? → Who won’t be forced to sell due to financing pressure? Crypto Treasury Durability is becoming a key competitive advantage in the next phase. ETFs determine fund flows; treasuries determine holding depth. And the market will ultimately reward those who not only buy but also have the ability to hold long-term. 👀 #Crypto #BitcoMy personal judgment is quite clear: OKB is undervalued. As the second largest exchange, its ranking should be within the top 20.
OKB is currently ranked 35th by market capitalization.
But I have more confidence investing in OKB than in others, and I don't feel comfortable putting money on smaller platforms.
Many surged into the top 20 during the bull market, but very few have maintained their rankings.
In the long term, those with excessive gains but market share (user base) not keeping up will eventually fall out of the rankings.
Investing in companies with strong competitiveness is the essence of investment.
Stick to your position and ignore the opinions of the masses; most people in the market will not make money.
Leverage can amplify profits but also increase losses.
The market periodically liquidates leverage, providing spot investors opportunities to buy at low prices, while leveraged traders can go bankrupt at any time.
The premise of achieving huge returns is to survive long enough.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 🔥Tonight's Nonfarm Preview! Three Scenario Simulations: What They Mean for BTC, Gold, and SanDisk (SNDK) ⚠️The following is only a macro logic review and does not constitute any investment advice The US core nonfarm data will be released tonight at 20:30: - Unemployment rate: expected 4.1%, previous 4.1% - Nonfarm payrolls: expected +58,000, previous −23,000 Last month’s nonfarm showed negative growth; this time the market expects employment to turn positive. The market is already watching this report to judge whether the Fed will raise rates in September. Remember the underlying logic first: Stronger employment data → rising rate hike expectations → higher USD and US Treasury yields → pressure on risk assets; Weaker employment → rising rate cut expectations → weaker USD, gold and crypto assets more likely to strengthen. Below is a breakdown of three possible scenarios: Scenario 1: Nonfarm payrolls > 58K (employment exceeds expectations strongly) ✅Example: +80,000, +100,000, unemployment rate remains at 4.1% or even lower - 💎Gold: bearish. Strong employment supports Fed rate hikes, pushing US Treasury yields up, pressuring gold to fall. - ₿BTC: bearish. BTC is increasingly correlated with gold; a high interest rate environment reduces the appeal of non-yielding assets, making BTC prone to pressure, volatility, and spike risks. - 📈SanDisk (SNDK, US storage chip stock): bearish. SanDisk is a semiconductor cyclical stock, very sensitive to interest rates. Rising rate hike expectations will suppress valuations in growth sectors; meanwhile#沃勒：August inflation will decide whether to raise rates in September
The big event is coming; tonight's non-farm payrolls are the real first test.
I interpret Waller's statement this time as one sentence: no one should rush to conclusions about a rate hike in September. If August inflation continues to cool down, he tends to hold steady; if CPI and PPI strengthen again, a rate hike remains on the table. After his speech, the market's expectation for a September rate hike clearly cooled, returning close to a 50-50 split.
But what I personally focus on is not whether tonight's non-farm payrolls are high or low, but whether employment and inflation can simultaneously provide direction. Currently, July's non-farm payrolls actually decreased by 23,000, and the previous two months were significantly revised down. August ADP only increased by 38,000, indicating employment is not as strong as imagined.
So my simple judgment is: if tonight's non-farm payrolls are below expectations and the unemployment rate continues to rise, the market will further bet against a rate hike. $BTC and $ETH have a chance to continue pushing upward. If non-farm payrolls significantly exceed expectations and wage growth is strong, then the bears will regain the initiative.
In the short term, I am still bullish on BTC, focusing on whether it can hold around 80,000. Only if it holds can it continue to challenge previous highs. If ETH climbs back above 2,500, the upside space will reopen.
But I won't draw conclusions about the big picture tonight. Non-farm payrolls are just the first hurdle; next week's CPI and PPI are the final exam that will decide the September FOMC.
Currently, bulls and bears are evenly matched, and I am unwilling to bet on the answer prematurely. For now, I will keep my position steady. Long and Short Crowding Rankings
Continuously paying fees is not scary; what is worth being cautious about is paying fees but failing to push the price.
$CAP current rate -0.6089%, settled -1.357% in the past 24 hours, at the 0th percentile of recent samples. Price and positions are rising together, confirming that risk exposure is expanding with the increase. Short-side costs are high, and price positions are expanding upward; if the pullback does not break down, pressure will continue to remain on the short side.
$EDGE current rate +0.0503%, settled -0.056% in the past 24 hours, at the 100th percentile of recent samples. Price and positions increased in 15 minutes, leverage risk exposure is increasing during this upward movement. The current rate is opposite to the 24-hour cumulative rate, position costs have reversed; when open interest is stable, do not mistake rate reversals for trend reversals.
$ETH current rate +0.0100%, settled +0.018% in the past 24 hours, at the 100th percentile of recent samples. Price and positions fell and rose alternately in 15 minutes, risk exposure is expanding, next to see if selling pressure can continue to cause displacement. The long side is still paying fees, but price and open interest are moving down together; what can be confirmed now is that longs are under pressure, not that liquidation has already occurred. The non-farm payrolls haven't been released yet, but the bulls have already started celebrating early!
$BTC has stepped up to 81,000, $ETH has returned above 2,500, and the market suddenly shifted from "no one dares to move" to "bulls rushing ahead."
The reason is simple:
The ADP small non-farm added only 38,000 jobs, showing a clear cooling in employment; the Beige Book also signaled a weakening labor market.
The market has started to trade a new narrative — the Fed rate cut expectations are back.
But don't get carried away here.
Although market expectations for policy have clearly eased, the probability of a rate hike is still around 50%, so the risk has not disappeared.
The real trigger is tonight's non-farm payrolls at 20:30.
The expected new jobs are 53,000:
If the actual data is below expectations, easing trades will continue to heat up, and risk assets may rally again, with $BTC directly challenging 82,000 or even 83,000.
But if the non-farm suddenly surprises on the strong side, the bulls who chased in early today might instantly become "fuel" for tonight.
More importantly, institutional funds have not withdrawn.
BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $101 million on Wednesday, and ETH spot ETFs have had net inflows for 11 consecutive days, totaling about $1.6 billion.
So the current market essentially is:
Bulls are betting on soft data, bears are betting on strong data.
81,000 has been reclaimed, and next it depends on whether the non-farm can ignite the bulls further.
Once the data is out tonight, the direction may be revealed immediately.
If the bulls are right, 82K–83K is in sight;
If wrong, the funds chasing above 81K won't get away unscathed.Yesterday (September 3), Bitcoin experienced a clear upward surge.
It started the day around $77,300
The intraday low was about $76,900–77,000
The high reached $81,700–82,300
The final close was in the $81,100–81,500 range
The daily increase was about 5%–5.5%.
In the evening, there was a rapid rise of about $4,000–5,000
Currently, the price is fluctuating and consolidating around $80,800–81,400
Close to last night's closing price.
From the liquidation data, the forced liquidations were mainly shorts (short squeeze)
The total liquidation amount was about $280–400 million
It was not a large drop liquidation dominated by longs.
Some investors holding base positions near 76,700 have already realized floating profits.
The previously mentioned $78,425–80,000 range still holds reference value:
Without a clear signal of volume-driven decline, it is not advisable to short directly.
As proven, most blind short sellers have been trapped or forced to stop loss.
BTC support and resistance reference:
87,550 / 85,165 / 75,475 / 78,425 / 71,500
ETH support and resistance reference:
2,750 / 2,400 / 2,225 / 2,100
(still following BTC movement)
This does not constitute investment advice, DYOR
$BTC $ETH #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 The leader has something to say
Robinhood Chain's trading volume reached 1.89 billion, with on-chain revenue of 3.38 million USD, surpassing several mainstream chains. ARB rose nearly 10% following this, because Robinhood Chain is based on the Arbitrum tech stack, and the licensing fee revenue goes directly into the Arbitrum DAO's account.
However, the main trading drivers are still Meme assets like CashCat and Pons; real RWA demand hasn't caught up. Whether the volume can consolidate into sustained trading is something to watch going forward. #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温
OKX's built-in DEX already supports Robinhood Chain token trading, with gas fees waived during the event. The gateway is open; whether it can retain users depends on data after the Meme tide recedes. $BTC $ETH $SOL
This ARB surge is driven by ecosystem narrative, not fundamentals—don't chase it, wait for a pullback.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; always set stop-loss orders. Good luck.One-sentence conclusion: TRIA today (9/4) broke through 0.004 with volume expansion, reporting 0.004079 as of 09:54 Beijing time, a 24-hour increase of +10.1% — the largest intraday gain since August 23 (+7.4%). The key is not the increase itself, but the position and manner: this is the third time the 0.00357-0.00362 range has been tested without breaking, the "unshakable" day on 9/3 with volume shrinking by 73%, followed by the first volume-driven upward attack, which exactly triggered the observation condition we wrote about yesterday in "Falling into No Man's Land" — "Only a volume breakout above 0.004 and holding it can be called an oversold rebound." The first step in directional choice has landed, but note: this is only the first stop for the bottom possibility, not a reversal confirmation. The real test lies in the resistance at 0.0044-0.0046 and 0.005. Today's review: How the breakout happened, breaking down today's market (OKX TRIA-USDT-SWAP, Beijing time): • Early session at 8:00: started the first wave from 0.00386, rising above 0.00395; • The 1-hour K-line at 9:00: released a huge volume of 514,000 contracts (about 29% of today's cumulative volume), price jumped from 0.00392 directly to 0.00409, a bullish candle reclaiming the integer level; • As of 09:54: today's cumulative volume reached 1,764,000BULL MARKETS DON’T REWARD FAST WINNERS — THEY REWARD THOSE WHO KEEP GAINS
I once thought catching a 20x, 50x, or 100x coin was winning.The hardest lesson was seeing 3x profits disappear. “One more green candle” turned paper gains into a lesson.
I learned:trends bring money in, discipline locks profits in.Now I focus on $BTC,$ETH,$SOL,$DOGE, $ZEC,$OKB, splitting capital:core to hold,trend to follow,hot positions to take profits.
Going all-in isn’t strength.Surviving matters more than one big win.The current $HYPE (Hyperliquid) is exhibiting an extremely strong stepped upward movement. Against the backdrop of overall market volatility, $HYPE is rising counter-trend by 3.35%, quoted at $87.338.
Key data observations:
1. Capital thirst: The ratio of net inflow to turnover is astonishing, indicating almost no active selling pressure on the current market, with most sell orders instantly absorbed by buyers.
2. Volatility structure: The 24-hour amplitude is only 8.62%, which is unusually restrained compared to its popularity. This volume contraction and consolidation testing the $88.166 high looks more like a buildup before a major move rather than a bull trap.
3. Market depth: The order wall at the $88 level is being eroded. Once this price level is firmly held, the upper area will enter a vacuum zone with no historical trapped positions pressure.
okxx丶Perfunctory plan strategy
*Entry points:
*Aggressive: If the $88.2 key resistance is effectively broken, follow the trend with a light position to chase the rise.
*Conservative: Watch for a low-volume pullback confirmation in the $84.5 - $85.0 range, which is the previous dense chip support zone.
*Stop loss: $81.0 (breaking below the 24-hour low of $81.13 means the short-term uptrend ends and you should exit and observe).
*Targets: First target $95.0, second target $108.0 (entering the triple-digit psychological battle).
$HYPE #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#星球日报 $XAU
Gold just won't go down, the core reason is one word: bullish
The gold pullback in Q1 was basically due to short-term central bank selling, repeated Fed hawkish talk, plus a slight breather in geopolitical tensions, but the fundamentals remain intact.
Why remain bullish? Three key points
First, the long-term trend of weakening US dollar credit cannot be changed; US fiscal and economic policies rely on printing money to survive.
Second, central bank gold sales are only temporary; some countries have to sell to defend their currency (like Turkey 🇹🇷). Once the US-Iran situation eases, this selling pressure will disappear.
Third, although the Fed talks about raising rates, if you look at US nonfarm payrolls and traditional economic sectors, they simply can't withstand aggressive tightening.
Strategically, using the Pring cycle framework, the current situation is very similar to the two oil crises in the 1970s—oil prices remain high, the traditional economy is weak, inflation won't come down, and gold is hard currency in this stagflation environment. Historical review confirms this: gold first surged, then pulled back, then hit new highs, forming an M pattern, as shown below. The first was from 1971 to 1973, the second from 1978 to 1979.
Now the new Fed chair, Powell, appears hawkish on the surface but is actually dovish; the main theme is rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, with a low probability of rate hikes.
When everyone expects a rate hike and consensus is unified, if suddenly there is no hike or even a cut, guess what the market will do? 💥💥💥
Plus, with next year's midterm elections and Trump unable to hold on, gold's core is one word: bullish! Also silver and copper $COPXCRYPTO TREASURY FOLLOW THE CAPITAL, NOT THE NOISE.
The latest ETF activity is showing a market that isn't moving in one direction.
$BTC ETFs brought in approximately $101.15M on September 2, reversing the previous day's $236.5M outflow.
At the same time, the picture for other assets is cooling.
$ETH ended a 12-day inflow streak, while $SOL also recorded its first outflow after an extended run of positive flows.
Meanwhile, $HYPE is gaining a different kind of exposure.
HYPE has been added to Hashdex's U.S.-listed crypto index ETF with a 3.4% weighting.
This is why the current market shouldn't simply be labelled risk-on or risk-off.
Capital is becoming more selective.
Some flows are reversing.
Some are returning.
And some assets are gaining access through new investment structures.
But perhaps the most interesting part is happening away from the daily ETF numbers.
Crypto treasury companies continue accumulating despite the volatility.
That raises a bigger question:
How strong is the conviction behind this accumulation?
Anyone can accumulate when prices are moving higher.
The real test is whether these companies can continue buying when the market becomes uncomfortable.
That's where treasury durability becomes important.
If firms maintain their accumulation strategy through significant volatility, it could demonstrate that institutional demand is becoming less dependent on short-term price action.
But if buying slows when conditions tighten, the market may discover that some of the recent demand was more sensitive to liquidity than expected.
So I'm watching three things closely:
ETF flows → where capital is moving.
Relative strength → which assets are attracting demand.
Treasury accumulation → who is willing to keep buying through volatility.
The market doesn't need every asset to move together.
It needs sustainable capital behind the assets that continue to outperform.
For now, the flow picture is changing.
The next phase will reveal who has the balance sheet and conviction to stay in the game.
CryptoTreasuryDurability. The idea given last night was to position in the low range, and all have triggered an upward trend.
The most reassuring thing in trading is to clearly sort out support and target ranges in advance, not chasing highs or selling lows, holding the ambush positions well, and waiting quietly for the market to unfold on its own. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 Yesterday's bullish candle was strong, and today's sideways consolidation at a high level is quite normal. BTC's current price is 81,300, basically flat compared to the August high of 81,300–81,500, which means the early September pullback has been fully recovered. Next is the choice: break through 83,000 to open a new range, or trade sideways between 80,000–83,000. I am more optimistic that the latter will happen first. Strategically, keep holding the base position, add more on pullbacks, and take profits in batches around 82,500.
$BTC "Big Short" Michael Burry Reveals: Lululemon Becomes His Largest Holding, Will Increase Position If It Falls Below $100 Michael Burry, an investor known as a "Big Short," revealed in his column Cassandra Unchained that Lululemon Athletica (LULU) is currently the largest holding in his portfolio. He stated that if the stock price falls below $100, he will actively buy. His average holding cost is around $120, and he has repeatedly publicly called the stock "unbearably cheap." Burry described LULU as the "troublemaker" in his portfolio, a phrase that reveals both dissatisfaction with the stock's ongoing decline and his determination to increase his position against the trend. According to disclosures, Burry has previously increased his holdings multiple times, with an average cost around $120, while Lululemon's stock price has been steadily falling from its peak in recent years, with its valuation shrinking—this is exactly why he sees it as "cheap to the point of being grating." What's even more noteworthy is that Burry previously proposed a long-term scenario: at the current valuation level, Lululemon could become a target for founder buybacks or private equity acquisitions. This means that, in his view, the stock has potential upside opportunities catalyzed by mergers and acquisitions, rather than simply being a distressed stock. As an investor known for accurately predicting the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, Burry's holdings disclosures often attract market attention,CRYPTO TREASURY: THE FLOW IS SHIFTING
$BTC ETF: +$101.15M on Sept. 2, reversing the previous day’s $236.5M outflow.
$ETH ETF: Its 12-day inflow streak has ended.
$SOL ETF: Recorded its first outflow after an extended inflow streak.
$HYPE ETF: Added to Hashdex’s U.S.-listed crypto index ETF with a 3.4% weighting.
Despite volatility, treasury firms keep accumulating. The real test: CryptoTreasuryDurability — who can keep buying through rough markets?$BTC This rebound might be more important than many people imagine.
Yesterday it hit a low near 76,992, then rallied all the way up, reaching a high near 82,178, and finally settled back above 81K.
From the trend, the market has already started trying to reverse the previous weak momentum.
But we can't rush to call it a "new big rally" just yet.
Because there is still obvious resistance above 82K.
If BTC can break through around 82.2K and hold steady after the breakout, then market focus will gradually shift to 85K, 88K, and even 90K.
Conversely, if it falls below 80K after the surge, it means this rally still needs time to digest.
What I’m more concerned about is:
After the breakout, will BTC dare to retest the support?
A truly strong market isn’t one that just keeps rising, but one where after the rise, a pullback still finds buyers.
So this time I’m not guessing the top.
I’m waiting for BTC to confirm the direction with price.Let's look at the data first: The coin is xyz:CRWV, the position is long, with 4x leverage, weighted entry price at 81.77, position size of $71,850, involving 1 trader, and the current market price is not displayed.
4x leverage is not extreme, but with a large position size, the emotional pressure caused by volatility is amplified. When making profits, one feels invincible; after a few drawdowns, hands start to shake.
The profit from going long comes from the capital efficiency brought by price increases, while the risk is that losses are amplified simultaneously when the price drops. The heavier the position, the less you can rely on "it will come back eventually" as risk control.
The screenshot doesn't show this is an emotional trade, nor can it confirm the direction is wrong; but if stop loss and maximum loss are not clearly defined in advance, it's not a trading plan, it's fooling the market with hope.
A blunt word from an experienced trader: The entry price is just a record of entry, not a promise that the price must return. 4x leverage is not a low-risk talisman; stubbornly holding on only surrenders the initiative.
Cut losses when necessary, first secure the qualification to stay in the game. Don't wait until the position is out of control and close to forced liquidation to realize you don't even have the chips to admit your mistake.9.4$BTC Silk Road Today
Entry: Buy on pullback near 80100 and stabilize
Stop loss: 78500 #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
First target 81300
Second target 82000‑82280
Ultimate target: 83000Today, Bitcoin temporarily broke through $81,000, seemingly breaking the curse of falling after every meeting once again. Honestly, my $BTC dual-currency option expiring today still chose a 5% drop, set at $73,800, mainly due to concerns about escalating conflict between the US and Iran and the risk market pullback caused by rising oil prices.
However, I really have to thank Waller. Without his remarks, it would have been difficult for the US stock market and Bitcoin to withstand the pressure from oil prices and US Treasury bonds today. Many people only focused on the latter part of Waller's speech, which was that if inflation continues to rise in August, he would support a rate hike in September. But he also stated that as long as inflation continues to fall back toward 2%, he is willing to support keeping rates unchanged in September.
The market had originally pushed the probability of a September rate hike close to 60%, but after Waller's speech, it dropped to around 50%. Yields on two-year and ten-year US Treasuries both fell, and the US dollar index weakened accordingly, so the US stock market and Bitcoin immediately started to rise. Unfortunately, I hadn't heard Waller speak when I made the dual-currency trade.
For the risk market, rising oil prices are a risk transmitted later through inflation, while the decline in US Treasury yields and the dollar is a direct positive factor that can be traded today, so the market temporarily chose the latter. Additionally, Trump stated that the new round of military action against Iran would not last long, so the market did not price in a full-scale war escalation.
But if the war cannot end in the short term and oil prices cannot quickly recover, causing inflation to possibly continue rising, it would still not be good news for the market.📌BTC surged 24% in a single month, entering a digital gold pricing cycle?
⚠️Key caution: sudden liquidity reversal.
BTC-gold correlation has reached a multi-year high, with debt monetization expectations fueling the macro narrative.
But 86,000 is a solid strong resistance; tonight's non-farm payrolls and next week's CPI are potential liquidity disturbance sources.
Currently, chasing highs has average odds; it's better to wait for a pullback confirmation before participating.
This round of market divergence is obvious, not a broad-based rally:
✅$ARB｜Cash flow has already been realized
Robinhood Chain revenue sharing is in place, gas income is booming, fundamentals are solid.
Short-term overbought combined with September unlocking pressure, avoid blind chasing.
✅$LINK｜Cash flow is about to be realized
Linked with Bottomline connecting 600+ banks, covering an annual payment scale of 16 trillion.
Traditional payment infrastructure going on-chain opens long-term imagination space.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温
$ETH $BTC $SOL Bitcoin just had a very strong rebound, and most of the market attributes it to one reason: the Fed becoming less hawkish after Christopher Waller's statement. That is true — but not enough. A new technical analysis by Reuters points out that the recent approximately 30% rise of BTC is also supported by the U.S. Treasury expanding its long-term bond buyback program (Treasury buybacks). At the same time, BTC has surpassed a series of important moving averages and is approaching the major resistance zone at $82,793. (Reuters) This is the real story