Orbit Post Sitemap
$BTC is being pushed down on the charts, and the troubles behind it are no less.
First, looking at September, the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations have heated up again, with the market currently pricing in about a 55% chance. Even if there is no rate hike in September, the probability of at least one rate hike this year is still 72%. It's not so easy for liquidity to loosen again for now.
Then, looking at the midterm elections in November, this is another big variable. The market now gives the Democrats about a 90% chance of taking the House of Representatives, with the Senate close to a 50-50 split. Once the congressional makeup changes after the election, advancing existing crypto legislation will become more difficult, and regulatory pressure may rise again.
So, defining this rally as a new bull market right now is still too optimistic.
2018 is a very typical example. After the Democrats took the House, market risk appetite continued to weaken, with ETH falling from highs down to the $200–$500 range, and BTC dropping from around $6,000 further down to about $3,000.
Of course, the market now is not the same as in 2018.
But if macro, policy, and liquidity factors all move unfavorably at the same time, BTC, ETH, and SOL will all find it hard to remain unaffected.
September and November—these two time points are what I will be watching closely first.The magic of farming was that it launched a self sustaining economic loop. The first liquidity providers received rewards and reinvested them back into the protocol increasing overall market depth. More liquidity meant less slippage and better rates for regular users. Better rates attracted new participants who generated more fees. More fees made providing liquidity even more attractive even without counting additional rewards. This was a classic network effect launched through a mathematical in$BTC $ETH $CL The bad news is Iran launched missiles, US stocks fell, and BTC was dragged down as well. But the good news is that the drop is a good thing, giving an opportunity to get in above 75000. This kind of geopolitical pulse drop usually comes fast and goes fast. As long as the Strait of Hormuz is not completely cut off, after an oil price surge, it will fall back, and BTC will bounce back accordingly. BTC reaching 80000, is this trade stable? In the short term, it depends on geopolitical sentiment; in the medium term, it depends on non-farm payroll data. If non-farm payroll is weak, the probability of rate hikes decreases, and BTC bouncing back to 80000 is highly likely. If non-farm payroll is strong, rate hike expectations continue, then it will take more time to consolidate. But the area around 75000 structurally is indeed worth trying to go long. Support below is between 74500 and 75000; if broken, look at 73000. Set stop-loss properly, don’t hold on. The drop is an opportunity, not panic. When the position is right, take action. Set stop-loss properly, don’t cut losses in panic. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $xSNDK SanDisk's market last week was like a roller coaster🎢
Samsung's 110 trillion KRW rebate plan "did not exceed expectations," causing a collapse in sentiment. SanDisk fell 6.5% from its high, Hynix dropped 8% in two days, and KOSPI plunged over 3%. Then Nvidia's earnings report of $96.2 billion exceeded expectations, validating AI computing power demand, and the storage sector immediately stopped falling.
The logic for storage is now very clear:
1. HBM supply-demand imbalance remains unchanged, Hynix holds 50% market share, and all major customers of Nvidia Vera Rubin have placed orders.
2. NAND market supply increase is limited, Goldman Sachs maintains a buy rating on SanDisk.
3. Hynix's 40 trillion KRW buyback (29 billion USD) cancels 3.3% of shares, the largest in South Korean history.
4. Nvidia has $2 trillion in pending orders, and the top five cloud providers' capital expenditures may reach 1.3 trillion by 2027.
The logic was not broken during the decline; a rebound is only a matter of time. The current issue is the price level: SanDisk at 1,485 is still 6% below the analyst target of 1,575, so it’s not particularly cheap. Hynix is stabilizing in the Korean market.
Trading strategy: The storage cycle is still in the first half, but don’t chase the highs. SanDisk between 1,000 and 1,050 is the ideal entry point (still far from the current price), wait for a pullback or a breakout above the previous high before buying. Wait for KOSPI to confirm stabilization for Hynix. If geopolitical tensions (U.S. actions against Iran) push oil prices up and trigger inflation concerns, the storage sector will likely pull back with the broader market, which would be an opportunity. $ETH/USDT: +0.85% during the day, -0.83% at night. Background movements are wiping the range, with a net result of -0.01%.
There is neither volume pressure, nor a shift in open interest (+0.36%), nor even intermediary funding (0.0082%). The market is simply treading water, exploring its boundaries.
Does this concern those waiting for an impulse?Not recommended to chase now.
**The kimchi premium is a bit of an overbought signal, but the $78,500 level is awkward:**
- Strong resistance above at $80,000 (only 1.9% away)
- Recent support below at $76,900 (-2%)
- Stuck in the middle, stop loss placement is uncomfortable: setting it at $76,900 is too tight and likely to be triggered, setting it at $75,700 risks an 18U loss per trade but the risk-reward ratio is only 1.6:1, which is not acceptable
**Also, the kimchi premium should be viewed from two sides:** it is indeed a bullish sentiment signal, but historically it often appears at short-term market tops — Korean retail FOMO is often the last wave.
**Two better entry points, just wait for one:**
1. **Break above $80,000 and hold with a pullback** → Confirm the trend and go long, stop loss at $78,500, take profit at $84,000, risk-reward ratio 3:1
2. **Pullback to $76,000-76,900** → This is our spot buying zone, and contract longs are also opened there
You already have an ETH long position open (19.5U margin), so you don’t need this one. The market will likely be volatile before the mid-September FOMC, **good positions are waited for, not chased.**Starting today, Russia allows enterprises to mortgage BTC, and the US Senate vote is imminent: What big global game is being played next?
Today (September 1), the global crypto regulatory landscape has reached a major turning point.
Russia's latest digital asset law officially takes effect: domestic enterprises are legally allowed to use Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and USDT as collateral for cross-border trade settlement and financial financing. However, ordinary retail investors face a strict annual investment limit of 300,000 rubles.
Meanwhile, the US Senate procedural vote on the Crypto CLARITY Act is scheduled for mid-September, fully paving the way for traditional Wall Street financial institutions and banks to enter the market.
The two major powers of the Eastern and Western hemispheres are sending the same signal:
First, the national-level settlement attribute of crypto assets is officially recognized. In the reality of obstacles to traditional multinational settlements, borderless BTC and on-chain USDT have become indispensable hard currency infrastructure;
Second, the global regulatory trend of "suppressing retail investors, welcoming institutions" is established. Regulators are on one hand setting barriers to prevent high-leverage retail speculative gray areas, and on the other hand opening green lights for compliant sovereign funds, real enterprises, and Wall Street capital.
As nations and multinational corporations begin to write Bitcoin into their balance sheets as collateral, the era of wild growth in cryptocurrencies has completely ended, officially elevating it to a core asset in the global top-level financial chessboard. NVIDIA invests $3.5 billion in MediaTek, Strategy restarts buying $BTC, BitMine aggressively buys over 50,000 $ETH in a week. Three positive factors emerge simultaneously, but the three brothers react little — it's good news, but it can't drive the price up. #英伟达向联发科投资35亿美元
This investment by NVIDIA is its largest direct investment outside the US, and MediaTek's stock hit the daily limit. The narrative of AI computing power spreading from the cloud to PCs and cars is taking shape; it has no direct impact on $BTC but supports risk appetite.
Strategy bought $BTC again after ten weeks, purchasing 4,603 coins at an average price of $80,318, spending $370 million. Along with Strive's purchase of $143 million, institutional buying is indeed back.
BitMine increased its $ETH holdings by 53,501 last week, with total holdings exceeding 5.9 million coins, staking 5.06 million coins, generating annual staking income of $335-390 million. Currently holding 4.9% of Ethereum's total supply, just over 130,000 coins short of 5%. #Strategy与BitMine同步增持
But the three brothers are just so-so today; despite many positives, prices remain unchanged — the probability of a rate hike in September is already 64%, aftershocks from Wash remain, and Bassett says credit easing will take time to implement. It's a fact that institutions are buying, and it's also a fact that prices aren't moving; we'll wait for macro conditions to ease. 👊#贝森特拟放宽银行信贷，高利率压力待解 As soon as the news of the US airstrike on Iran broke, oil prices rose in response, and risk assets briefly came under pressure, with Bitcoin once suppressed near $77,000. However, $BTC quickly recovered from the $78,000 area and is now reported at $78,400; the support level has not been fundamentally breached, showing more resilience than expected. In contrast, $ETH appears weak, currently at $2,445, with the $2,400 level precarious. Reflecting on last year's highlight moment when it surged to $5,000 on ETF expectations, the weakness became exposed once the tide receded. Market internal divergence is also intensifying; $ZORA is strengthening against the trend, SOL and ZEC have followed but with limited strength, and TRUMP seems more like a fleeting episode. This structure reminds us not to be fooled by localized hype. Several storage projects briefly rebounded before falling again, but the logic of AI storage remains unchanged; the adjustment seems more like a buildup rather than an end. I lean moderately bullish in the medium term; the real variable lies in the progress of crypto legislation. Once funds shift, the market will respond quickly. Using BTC and ETH as core holdings, volatility acts more like discount coupons, making dollar-cost averaging more comfortable than blind bottom fishing. Currently, it is suitable to observe and test with light positions, not to bet heavily, and patiently wait for clearer signals. Risk warning: geopolitical conflicts and policy rhythms are uncertain, crypto assets are highly volatile, please control your positions rationally. $BTC $ETHBrent crude oil has stabilized above $92, with supply concerns driven by geopolitical conflicts pushing oil prices higher. This change is transmitting to global assets through inflation expectations.
The most direct impact of rising oil prices is the renewed market concern about an inflation rebound. If energy prices continue to rise, there will be upward pressure on the US PCE and CPI, leading the market to further lower expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, which will drive US Treasury yields higher. Higher yields will suppress high-valuation growth assets, putting valuation pressure on the US tech sector and the crypto market.
There will be a clear divergence within the market: the energy sector will benefit directly, while technology, consumer, and risk assets will generally be bearish. Short-term impulsive increases have limited impact on the broader market; after the news is digested, the market will return to its original main theme. However, if oil prices continue to hold in the $92–94 range, the inflation narrative will dominate trading again, significantly increasing the probability of a medium-term correction in risk assets.
The core indicator to judge the impact size is whether the 10-year US Treasury yield rises in sync with oil prices. Rising oil prices accompanied by rising yields is a clear risk warning; if oil prices rise but Treasury yields remain stable, the impact on risk assets is very limited.
In short, slowly rising oil prices do not harm the market, but a rapid surge is the hidden macro downside.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #贝森特拟放宽银行信贷，高利率压力待解 $BTC $ETH Recent Mistakes and Issues CORE Should Not Have Experienced
Is it a vulnerability? A mistake? Or human error?
I. Technical Mistakes
1. Validator Reward Distribution Anomaly (2026-08-31)
Some validator nodes received excessive block rewards due to a protocol reward distribution logic bug.
- Official statement: User assets were not stolen; only the reward distribution was incorrect; the cause has been identified and fixed, with a full post-incident review report promised.
- Community controversy: The consensus reward mechanism is the core foundation of the public chain; incorrect reward distribution shakes the trust of node participants; although no direct user fund loss occurred, it exposed vulnerabilities in the protocol's underlying logic.
2. Ecosystem DeFi Chain Liquidation Risk
The on-chain lending protocol Colend experienced large-scale chain liquidations; token price drops triggered cascading liquidations, causing many users to be forcibly liquidated.
- Root cause: The ecosystem overly relies on CORE native tokens as collateral; token price volatility directly triggers systemic liquidations.
- Although the project team issued explanations, they failed to optimize collateral risk parameters in advance and did not provide adequate risk warnings, representing an oversight in ecosystem risk control.
II. Major Mistakes in Market and Communication (Most Criticized by the Community)
1. Severe Lack of Crisis Response After Binance Delisting
Binance delisting was a major negative event, directly impacting liquidity and holder confidence.
- Community feedback: Project leadership did not conduct special crisis communication regarding the delisting, did not implement remedial measures, nor publicly address community concerns; technical development continued as usual, giving the market the impression of "doing as they please, ignoring holders' situations."
- Exchange re-evaluation criteria include project communication transparency; this response further weakens trust from external platforms and the community.
2. Realistic Pressure on Token Economics, Insufficient Early Risk Warnings
- All airdropped tokens have been fully unlocked, rapidly increasing circulation to 70%, releasing concentrated supply pressure.
- The project lacks a buyback and burn mechanism; token value heavily depends on staking demand; it failed to clearly communicate the dilution risk caused by large-scale unlocking.
- Long-term mining since 1981 continues producing new tokens, increasing long-term supply without effective deflationary hedging.
3. Ecosystem Deployment Below Expectations, Narrative Detached from Reality
Promoting BTCFi narrative and many DApp ecosystems, but actual TVL and active user scale are low, lacking hit applications.
- Many partnerships and ecosystem plans remain at announcement stage without converting into real on-chain business traffic;
- Intense competition in the sector from BTCFi competitors like Stacks and Babylon continuously squeezes CORE, which has not formed sufficient differentiated barriers.
4. Weak Community Participation in Governance
Governance proposals mostly focus on technical parameter adjustments (e.g., increasing validator numbers); topics related to token economics and market crisis response, which directly affect holders' interests, lack sufficient community discussion; many decisions do not reflect community voices in market perception.
III. Objective Distinction: What Are Accidents and What Are Strategic Shortcomings
1. Technical bug (reward misdistribution): A fixable technical accident without direct theft of user assets but exposing insufficient robustness of the underlying mechanism.
2. Communication failure after delisting: A human error at the project governance level, not a technical fault, but severely damaging market confidence.
3. Token model and ecosystem deployment issues: Structural shortcomings caused by original project design and sector competition; not a single mistake but a long-term accumulated problem.
Summary: The CORE public chain itself can still operate normally, but multiple issues that should not have occurred appeared in crisis management, risk warning, ecosystem deployment, and token supply management. Technology can be patched, but once community confidence is damaged, repair becomes much more difficult.Besent said just one sentence, and Bitcoin lost another potential catalyst for a rally.
His remarks delivered three blows to the bulls.
First: there will be no intervention in the bond market. Traders had been speculating about Treasury-market support through repurchases, but he shut that idea down, saying they have never done it and have no plans to manipulate the market. That bullish narrative is now off the table.dd
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh
#BTCGoldCorrelation
#BroadcomDellAIResults $TRIA 📉 Core reason for TRIA's sharp drop: Solana card contract vulnerability exploited, $1.1 million stolen
Incident recap
• 08-31: The card issuer Rain used by TRIA was found to have a vulnerability in an old contract version, exploited by hackers to steal about **$1.1 million** (another estimate is $930,000) from multiple card projects
• Affected were two new banking projects, Tria and Avici, with card balances of 2,321 users compromised
• TRIA's own loss: 636 users, totaling $431,945 in card balances; the official team has promised full compensation (unlike most projects that shift blame, this was handled relatively well)
Price collapse data
• TRIA current price **0.00388**, down 92% from ATH 0.05
• 24h -23.8%, 7 days -43%, 14 days -54%, 30 days -53.4% — the crash happened mainly in the last two days
• Market cap down to only $8.39M
• AVICI token also crashed -49%
Secondary cause
• On-chain analysis found suspected team addresses transferring $1 million to Bitget, interpreted as a sell-off signal, increasing selling pressure
Summary in one sentence: TRIA's sharp drop is not due to its own business collapse, but because the shared infrastructure (Rain) was exploited by hackers — a double blow of trust crisis plus team transfer suspicion, which directly crashed the price that was already high.Money hasn't left the market; it's just no longer being bet evenly.
In August, on a Sunday evening, on-chain HIMS was once bought up to $132.64, while the New York Stock Exchange closed at only $28.84 on Friday, a premium of over 4.5 times. No hackers involved, just because the US stock market was closed, but on-chain trading happens 24/7.
This precisely exposes the structural problem of tokenized stocks: the chain can never close, but the liquidity of the real assets does not synchronize.
What’s more worth noting is the flow of funds. Bitcoin absorbs certainty capital, Meme and AI Agent absorb high-risk capital; a large number of VC coins and mediocre projects are continuously being drained.
Therefore, the most brutal change in this market cycle might be:
In the past, bear markets killed bad projects; this time, they kill the "mediocre" first.
Money hasn't decreased; it’s just becoming more selective and more extreme. $BTC has been stuck around $80,000 these days. The market seems to be waiting for a big bullish candle, but the actual support is not easy.
ETF continues to see net outflows, indicating that new off-exchange funds have not yet formed a stable inflow. Every short-term rebound easily encounters positions trying to break even and profit-taking.
Many people treat $80,000 as a psychological barrier, but more critical than the price is the quality of the buying. Relying solely on institutions adding positions at single points or a few positive news items can push the market higher, but it’s hard for it to be solid.
Bitcoin’s previous sustained rise depended on liquidity expectations, ETF funds, and market risk appetite all rising simultaneously. Now, with tighter macro policies and geopolitical risks disturbing investor sentiment, the market is naturally more cautious.
Personally, I tend to think that at this stage, don’t rush to treat every rebound as a new main upward wave. Bitcoin needs to see ETF funds stop bleeding and spot demand warming up before the price can hold more steadily at a high level.
Whether $80,000 holds or not depends not only on who shouts louder but also on who is willing to keep buying with real money.
(This is only a personal market record and does not constitute investment advice)#Stripe consortium reportedly withdraws, PayPal drops nearly 13%
The $53 billion acquisition expectation for PayPal just vanished.
The impact on the crypto space is twofold. First, the emotional shock from the acquisition expectation collapse is short-term. PayPal was never a pure crypto company, and the PYUSD initiative is still in its early stages; the failed acquisition does not affect the underlying value of its payment business. Second, the market will refocus on PayPal's fundamentals—payment business growth, profit improvement, and whether new ventures like PYUSD can support its valuation. The stablecoin competition landscape won't change much; the fundamentals of USDT and USDC won't be shaken just because one acquisition fell through.
To be honest, this failed acquisition shows one thing—under the current environment, large tech mergers and acquisitions are much harder than imagined. Financing costs, valuations, and regulations are three huge obstacles; you can't just buy if you want to. PayPal's 13% drop is the market repricing; the previous "possible acquisition" premium has been completely wiped out. This is not a collapse of PayPal's fundamentals, just a correction of transaction expectations.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH #闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注
A strong bullish candlestick at the close, SanDisk ended up 5.5% to $1566 — but today's money isn't from optimism, it's from being bought.
The MSCI August rebalancing took effect at the close on 8/31, and SanDisk is one of the largest new constituents by market cap in the global index this time. Passive funds must complete purchases on the effective date, so SanDisk, which once dropped 2% intraday, was forcibly pulled back up +5.5% at the close, with trading volume tripling the usual.
▪️ Closed at $1566.70 on 8/31, +5.5%, intraday low -2%
▪️ Kioxia announced over $31 billion investment in Japan to expand NAND capacity by 2032
▪️ Enterprise SSDs now account for 48% of global NAND shipments, up from 26% a year ago
▪️ Latest quarterly revenue $8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year
The disagreement isn't about how much MSCI buying there is, but whether the capacity expansion story can be fulfilled. Index funds buy based on market cap ranking and finish buying once; the $31 billion expansion is a seven-year commitment, with the North Plant Fab3 not expected to start production until fiscal 2029. The first wafer from the 5 trillion yen investment will take three years.
Passive funds are responsible for today's price increase; capacity is responsible for tomorrow's valuation. Are you betting that AI storage demand will hold until 2029, or will NAND oversupply appear by 2027? $SNDK #Employment data released intensively, Wash's policy stance tested #BTC high-level volatility, stronger linkage with gold
$CORE Previously, other chains encountered issues like "reward/inflation miscalculation," and the handling methods were generally a few types. Core will most likely use a mix of these approaches this time:
Solana (inflation reward miscalculation): No downtime, temporarily shut down the erroneous inflation distribution, push client patch in the next epoch to fix the math, did not track each misissued reward, smoothing out with subsequent parameters. → Core most likely references this: fix reward function + subsequent blocks issued according to the correct curve.
Handshake (repeatable inflation vulnerability): quietly coordinated majority hash power upgrade soft fork, new rules prohibit repeated claims, related fees forcibly burned, only publicly announced after 90% upgrade. → If Core's over-issuance is significant, it may adopt soft fork + equivalent burn/lock to maintain the 2.1B cap.
Paxos (mis-minted 300T PYUSD): identified and directly burned, centralized issuer covers the loss. → Core is an on-chain protocol, not a centralized stablecoin, so it cannot fully copy this, but the idea of "chase if possible, if not, hedge with issuer/vault" can be referenced.
BTC 2010 overflow bug: hard fork rollback of that block. → Highest cost, Core has confirmed many blocks and EVM compatibility, basically will not go this route.
$CORE This is not a new on-chain situation; mature handling solutions exist! Saylor said We’re back, the numbers are actually quite restrained.
After stopping for more than two months, they only bought 370 million, with an average price of 80,300, which is higher than the company's overall cost and also higher than the spot price at that time.
This looks more like a reappearance in the oscillation center rather than a bet on an immediate new high.
The business model of Strategy has never been "buy low," but "buy as long as financing is possible." So the key is not whether they bought or not, but: what valuation the market is still willing to use to let them continue exchanging stocks for Bitcoin. Wintermute: The September FOMC is a key catalyst for BTC direction, with rate hike expectations rising to 61.9%
Wintermute stated that the FOMC meeting on September 15-16 will be an important catalyst for risk assets, including the crypto market. After Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, the market's expectation for a September rate hike rose to 61.9%. The short-term direction of BTC is difficult to judge, with key support levels at $75,000 and $72,000, and resistance at $82,000.
Wintermute is a leading global crypto market maker, and its market outlook is a reference for institutional capital allocation. This statement comes after Federal Reserve official Warsh gave a hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting, pushing the rate futures market's pricing for a September rate hike to 61.9%, exceeding previous market consensus. As crypto assets are highly sensitive risk-on assets to liquidity, the repeated rate hike expectations have become the core factor suppressing BTC's breakthrough of the $82,000 resistance zone.
From the cross-asset performance in August, BTC rose 0.10%, lagging behind gold's 3.42% and Brent crude oil's 4.31% gains, roughly in line with the S&P 500 (+0.47%) and Nasdaq (+0.42%) but with greater volatility. ETH fell 0.86%, weaker than other major risk assets. BTC digested the previous 23% gain over the past week, briefly breaking above $81,000 but retreating to below $78,000 after Warsh's speech Financial liquidity risk is emerging, the yen's interest rate hike has started to be priced in, the US-Japan interest rate spread is expected to narrow, financial liquidity is constrained, and risk asset liquidity is tightening! Japanese Finance Minister and Bassett spoke today, with market expectations of adjustments in Japan's fiscal policy; the 10-year Japanese government bond yield has surpassed 3% for the first time in 30 years. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Previously, when I pointed out the yen risk, I mentioned a combination: yen breaking through 162-165, 10-year JGB yield at 3%, and 30-year JGB yield breaking and stabilizing above 4%. At that time, it would mark a stage of extreme loss of control in the Japanese economy, of course, assuming no government intervention. Over the past six months, we have frequently seen the Japanese government intervene in the foreign exchange market, even Bassett cooperating with the Japanese government on US-Japan joint actions regarding the forex market. Combined with their recent speeches, it is clear that Japan's fiscal policy is changing. Japan's policy has gradually formed a path prioritizing the yen first, then managing inflation, and lastly considering government bonds, which is completely different from the previous government-supported bond market. Facing the global high oil prices, high inflation, and Japan's severe imported inflation environment, Japan has actually formed a policy swap with the US. That is, Japan accepts higher bond market yields in exchange for a stronger yen trend. In the future, the Bank of Japan is very likely to reduce long-term bond purchases, tolerate further rises in long-term bond yields, and increase yen asset yields. This will lead to a narrowing of the US-Japan interest rate spread, reducing the attractiveness of arbitrage trades, causing capital to flow back to Japan, yen appreciation, and easing import and inflation pressures. I mentioned this in this week's macro weekly report.Stripe consortium exits, PayPal drops nearly 13%, the market seems to have suddenly removed the "M&A filter"
Acquisition rumors often keep old companies alive because they temporarily spare investors from worrying about growth, competition, and product aging. Now that the buyer is gone, PayPal has to face those old problems on its own: developer access is being taken by Stripe, mobile payments are being challenged by wallets, and cross-border settlements are being targeted by stablecoins
PayPal does have assets, but it’s becoming increasingly difficult to tell a new story that excites the market
The most painful part of this drop is that the market is not asking "who will buy you," but rather "if no one buys you, can you still become valuable on your own?" This question is quite harsh for many established internet finance companies
#Stripe财团据报退出，PayPal收跌近13% The divergence between $SPX call Skew and Put Skew also indirectly reflects the current state of the S&P 500.
1. Due to investors chasing gains and buying upward SPX calls, premiums have increased, causing Skew to soar;
2. PUT Skew declines conversely, indicating reduced demand for investor protection—in short, the market is perceived as low risk...
Although the $SPX has just recently fallen below the 20-day moving average in the short term, it remains close to new highs and the bulls still have momentum. Short-term risk appetite is relatively strong, and the market conditions support continued short squeezes and gradual price increases; however, trading is already crowded, and downside protection is insufficient. Once a negative shock occurs, volatility may suddenly spike.
$SPY $QQQAre ETF funds starting to "go their separate ways"? The institutional logic of BTC and ETH is quietly diverging.
Recently, there has been a clear inflow of US spot crypto ETF funds, with the combined weekly net inflow of BTC and ETH hitting a nearly 10-month high.
But don’t just look at the total amount; what’s really worth noting is — the money is coming in, but what institutions are buying has already changed.
ETH ETFs have been attracting funds for several consecutive days, with BlackRock’s ETHA continuously absorbing inflows.
On the other hand, BTC ETFs look more like "buy on the rise, run on volatility": funds surge during price increases but start flowing out with slight pullbacks.
Why?
BTC ETFs have more trading-type funds, so when the market fluctuates, profit-taking and exits happen very quickly.
ETH ETF’s new funds tend to be more medium- to long-term allocations, betting on potential dividends like staking ETFs, and are willing to slowly accumulate on pullbacks.
But don’t think ETH funds are too stable either. If macro conditions continue to tighten, these risk-on funds could also withdraw en masse.
On-chain data echoes this:
ETH continues to flow from exchanges to self-custody wallets, with exchange inventories steadily declining; meanwhile, BTC exchange inventories have risen somewhat, as some long-term holders seem to be putting chips back on exchanges during the rally, preparing for swing trading.
So what’s most worth watching now might not be "whether ETFs have funds coming in."
Rather — whose money is this, and how long are they planning to hold it? 👀
#DailyOrbit #贝森特拟放宽银行信贷，高利率压力待解
Sent wants banks to lend more, but the market has pushed US Treasury yields to 4.75%.
At the G20 Finance Ministers meeting, Bassett advocated relaxing capital constraints on small and medium banks, using credit and investment to grow the economy and use growth to manage debt. Meanwhile, Wash left the door open for rate hikes—CME shows a 66% probability of a September rate hike.
▪️ 10-year US Treasury at 4.75%, a 19-month high, intraday spike over 4.77%
▪️ Treasury doubled 30-year repo to 4 billion per session, large-scale entry on 9/10
▪️ Triple pressure: Wash fighting inflation + US-Iran oil price rebound + long-term bond supply
The disagreement is not about whether to lend, but where the credit flows.
Flowing into equipment, manufacturing, technology → supply strengthens, inflation cools, "growth to manage debt" works; flowing into asset prices → inflation stickiness, prolonged high interest rate cycle, more fiscal pain.
To get a sense of scale: US Treasury debt is 40 trillion, each 1% interest rate equals 400 billion in interest. From 0.73% in 2020 to 4.75% now, annual interest payments increased by about 1.6 trillion—the first step to managing debt is to first earn this 1.6 trillion.
This round of liquidity, will it flow into factories or asset prices? Do you believe in growth or in interest rates?Still the same words, if Brother Jin can't hold on, how can BTC hold on?
1. Trump clearly stated that he will respond to the attack on Iran, geopolitical risks are rising, and oil prices are going up.
2. Warsh's speech scared the market, the probability of a rate hike surged, and the uncertainty of Federal Reserve policy will cause funds to flee and wait.
3. The US Treasury Secretary supported tightening monetary policy at the G20 finance ministers' meeting, urging the Japanese to raise rates, and market liquidity will be further severely drained.
What can be seen is that the external macro environment is unfriendly to the market, so the choice was to short.
If it can still rise under these circumstances, then it can only be said that BTC has detached from modern economic logic, which is obviously impossible, right?
So continue to short!! #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $BTC $ETH Subtle reminder:
$BTC .D topped out 2 months before $BTCUSD did last year, and it has refused to make a low since 10/10 liquidations where it saw a 7.5% spike upward in one day. That was the biggest crypto liquidation event in the history of the space$BTC #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults US military airstrikes on Iran cause international oil prices to surge sharply, while US stock futures weaken. According to past logic, risk assets should simultaneously come under pressure, but BTC defies the trend, rising from 77,000 to 78,500, a daily increase of 1.5%; ETH and $SOL also rise in tandem, with the total crypto market capitalization increasing by 1.7% in a single day.
This is no coincidence; the market is re-pricing BTC's attributes, as it shifts from being purely a risk asset to one that also has safe-haven qualities.
On the other hand, at the Jackson Hole meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Powell sent a hawkish signal, with the probability of a September rate hike soaring from 35% to 55.5%. The rising rate hike expectations should have pressured the crypto market, yet $BTC firmly holds the 78,000 level, with negative news unable to push it down, indirectly confirming that the buying power below is far stronger than the market imagines.
In contrast, Meme coins like Dogecoin and TrumpCoin remain highly sentiment-dependent; they tend to spike when the market stabilizes but also experience more severe pullbacks. Avoid blindly chasing highs.
Funds that bottomed at 77,000 on the day of the conflict have already realized profits, while many are still waiting stubbornly for the 75,000 entry point. The market often does not offer comfortable entry opportunities—prices rise when hesitant and fall when chasing highs.
The 78,000 level is suitable for phased positioning; entering with half a position allows for both offense and defense, reserving ammunition to cope with potential pullbacks in mid-September.
⚠️ Risk warning: The above is only a market view and does not constitute investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile; do not blindly take heavy positions. The most dangerous moment on the chessboard is never the check itself, but the silent second before the check — the USD/JPY is hanging on such a silence at the 160 horizontal line.
As a grandmaster, I have seen too many opponents mistake "waiting" for "stability" under high pressure. The meeting between Bessent and Kazuo Ueda at the G20 was superficially a courteous sidestep, but in reality, it was a brief and ruthless tactical combination. Fiscal sustainability, interest rates, and foreign exchange — three pieces were thrown out simultaneously, like the classic Spanish opening repositioning — each move increasing the opponent's tactical burden.
Bessent's remark that "Japan can take action to support the yen" is like a queen exchange invitation in the middle game. If the opponent accepts the exchange, it means conceding the opponent's line of play and giving up strategic initiative; if avoided, the opponent must immediately adjust the pace of play, shifting time originally meant for domestic economic calculations to the foreign exchange defense line. Japanese officials' response that "central bank policy should only consider domestic conditions" superficially avoids this trap but actually exposes a gap in their layout: you can treat domestic inflation as the sole coordinate, but the exchange rate is precisely a hidden line derived from this coordinate, and it won't disappear just because you close your eyes.
Now, the market's focus is entirely on whether the next step will be "rate hikes" or "intervention." In chess terms, these are two completely different position evaluations. Rate hikes mean sacrificing some forces in the middle game to directly pressure the king in the endgame — it will change all fixed exchange imaginations between U.S. Treasury bonds and the yen, giving all pieces a new range of movement. Intervention is like directly launching a pawn on the flank, as if you suddenly push out a forgotten pawn at the most unexpected moment — in the short term, this move can defend the king's wing but at the cost of weakening your own pawn structure and leaving enough invasion paths for the opponent later.
Whichever move is chosen, the dollar index, U.S. Treasury yields, and risk assets will reposition in the next few rounds. This is no longer a game of exchange rates alone but a global liquidity battle. What Bessent truly wants to control may not be the yen's numbers but the diagonal line connecting Tokyo, Washington, and global capital. When he uses words to squeeze the intersection between interest rates and fiscal policy, every move by the Japanese player must bear the pressure of time.
The most subtle point is that 140, 150, even 155 — coordinates once considered limits — have now become historical footnotes on the chessboard. 160 is important because it is the critical point where the player must make a real choice: continue shifting or suddenly change formation. All observers are focused on the possible "intervention" move, but I believe what deserves more attention is a kind of implicit concession — when the Bank of Japan is forced to respond to international capital attacks with domestic policy logic, any seemingly stable move may unknowingly cede space.
What Bessent did not say aloud is a long-term restraint: you are not playing chess against the U.S.; you are fighting against the rhythm of the entire world. Japanese officials think "domestic conditions" are their king's castle, but in fact, it is just a study room with drafts on all sides. The real game happens in places no boundary map can find.
The chess clock is ticking; neither side has time to waste. 160 makes every hesitation costly. #bessentjapanfxtalksThe overall market remained dull in the evening, with market volatility continuing to decline and capital attention dispersed. Many traders treat trading as a daily routine, and the market lacks a clear direction.
$BTC maintains a sideways range. MACD shows a divergence signal, but without a volume breakout above the previous high, it can only be seen as a consolidation, not a direct bottoming signal. The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $216.7 million in a single day, with BlackRock contributing the vast majority of funds, reversing the outflow from the previous day. However, a single-day inflow does not equal a trend reversal; the sustainability needs to be observed, and one should not be misled by single-day data.
$ETH's performance is weaker than BTC, following the overall market's fluctuations, lacking incremental capital catalysts. It is difficult to see an independent trend in the short term and requires new news stimuli.
Meme coins like Dogecoin and TrumpCoin have much greater volatility than mainstream coins and are highly dependent on public opinion and hot sentiment. When the market is stable, they tend to have pulse-like rallies, but once the market weakens, the corrections are larger. Blindly chasing highs should be avoided.
$SPCX follows the Nasdaq adjustment, with decent buying on the market. Current entries are mostly speculative capital trying to get ahead; passive index funds will only execute on 9.18. Referring to historical trends, there is a possibility of early pumping to unlock selling. It is not suitable to blindly short before the 9.10-9.18 window, but one should be wary of the risk of selling to realize profits.
On the macro level, continue to closely watch employment data, BTC-Gold correlation, and AI giant earnings reports, all of which will affect market risk appetite.The MSCI index adjustment notice on my desk looks like a construction blueprint soaked in water—its edges curled up, with red lines marking SanDisk's position. At 2 a.m., what flickers on the market software isn't the price, but the rotation speed of the concrete pump truck's arm. xSNDK/USDT hangs above $1500, but this number means nothing to a structural engineer: it's merely a temporary load test value after scaffolding is set up; the real verification is whether the main structure can still stand after the supports are removed.
The capital flow of passive funds is essentially an approval document from the urban planning department. It changes the land where SanDisk is located from an "industrial control zone" to a "high-end commercial complex," so all funds tracking MSCI—those uniformly lined-up concrete mixers—must, after the closing bell, pour prefabricated mortar into the designated molds according to the volume on the weighting table. Once the molds are removed, the smooth surface is just an illusion; whether the building can reach its topping-out depends on whether the vertical rebar in the columns is thick enough and spaced closely enough. The passive funds' timed purchases are just like tower cranes lifting trusses onto embedded parts ahead of schedule to meet deadlines—the welding quality hasn't been inspected yet, and the wind will make them creak. The client agreement is the design specification, and the profit margin is the material acceptance report—if these two don't meet standards, even the most beautiful facade is just a paper mansion.
Looking further, the $31 billion NAND manufacturing base by Kioxia in Japan is a true "underground diaphragm wall" project. Its construction schedule extends to 2032, longer than any supertall building's construction period. It lays the foundation piles for artificial intelligence and cloud data centers—each model training consumes massive storage, just like every elevator and water pump in a skyscraper consumes structural lifespan. The number of NAND wafer layers determines the effective usable area, while the yield rate determines whether that floor slab can bear a live load of 250 kg per square meter. When AI training clusters sway like tuned mass dampers atop supertall buildings, storage bandwidth is the steel core column running through the core tube—without it, every computational force would be nullified. The market is pricing these parameters, but most people can't even understand the structural force diagrams.
Index inclusion is just a ticket to compete for the "Luban Award." A 5.5% stock price increase is far from enough to conclude anything about construction quality—it's just a banner hanging from the tower crane's jib. What investors really need to watch are Kioxia's equipment purchase orders and the data center customers' contract signing rates—these are the cement strength grades in the load-bearing walls. When contract signing volumes accumulate floor by floor like building loads, but capacity expansion can't keep pace, the whole building will develop plastic hinges at the yield points. When passive funds retreat, that wall built with infill blocks can't even withstand a typhoon.
True architects never drink champagne at topping-out ceremonies. They just lie by the window openings without glass installed at midnight, listening to the wind wailing through the structural beams—there lie all the secrets about reinforcement ratios and crack widths. #sandiskmscirebalanceThe afternoon market shows a subtle restlessness, with $BOME rising on reduced volume and prices quietly climbing. This trend is not reassuring—last week it just went through a round of surging then falling back, rising 20% before returning to its original level. Today it is pushed up again, but volume hasn't kept pace, inevitably evoking thoughts of a bull trap before distribution. $ZORA surged 33% yesterday and has shifted to sideways trading today, seemingly laying the groundwork for distribution. Whether $BOME will repeat the same pattern is worth watching closely. $PEOPLE rose 9.7% riding the residual heat of the Constitution DAO concept, but this narrative has long cooled off, with previous fluctuations ending in high-level traps. On-chain data also confirms concerns: retail investors are actively chasing in, while large wallets remain almost inactive, indicating an unhealthy chip structure. $TNSR previously showed a similar pattern of sharp rise followed by a steep drop, with both shapes quite alike. $LPT’s stubbornness is even more puzzling; the AI sector is generally sluggish, $ARKM continues to weaken, and news about the Grayscale trust has been repeatedly priced in. This sudden 14% surge now feels more like a last flash before the curtain falls rather than a value rebound driven by fundamentals. The three groups’ reduced-volume rises show a highly consistent picture, with short-term correction pressure building up. Market volatility is intense; please control your positions and assess risks rationally.Evening crypto market review shows multiple signals awaiting confirmation📉 Overall remains sluggish, volatility continues to decline, market attention is scattered, and many traders have turned trading into a daily routine.
$BTC maintains a sideways range, MACD shows divergence signs, but without a volume breakout above the previous high, it can only be seen as a consolidation signal; do not blindly bottom-fish. The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $216.7 million in a single day, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing the vast majority of funds, reversing the outflow from the previous day. However, a single-day inflow does not equal a trend reversal; it is necessary to observe whether inflows can continue to avoid being misled by single-day data.
$SPCX follows the Nasdaq adjustment, with relatively ample buying power. It is important to distinguish between front-running funds and passive index funds: the new equity weight will be announced after market close on 9/11, passive tracking funds will execute at the 9/18 closing auction and officially take effect on 9/21. Current entries are mostly front-running funds betting on expectations; referring to the historical market from 8/14 to 8/17, there is a possibility of early pumping to unlock selling. Before the 9/10 and 9/18 time windows, it is not suitable to blindly short; short-term is likely to be oscillating with a stable bias, but beware of the risk of selling to realize profits on good news.
On the macro level, keep a close eye on employment data, BTC-Gold correlation, and AI giant earnings reports, all of which will disturb market risk appetite.
The market is currently in a grinding phase; indicators, funds, and events can only be used as references. Do not treat divergence or single-day ETF inflows as a bottom-fishing decree. Be patient for volume confirmation, control position sizes, avoid high leverage, and wait for clear signals from the market.ETF funds show structural divergence, with BTC and ETH institutional buying logic changing
Recently, US spot crypto ETFs have indeed been flowing back, with weekly net inflows reaching nearly a 10-month high, but the money is not rushing in all at once; internal preferences have already split.
ETH is more stable: spot ETFs have continuous net purchases, with BlackRock's ETHA as the main recipient. The increment seems driven more by medium- to long-term allocation/staking expectations, with funds stepping in on pullbacks. This aligns with on-chain data—ETH is continuously withdrawn from exchanges, inventory is decreasing, and there is a strong tendency for self-custody.
BTC, on the other hand, is more trading-oriented: ETFs show buying during price rises and selling on pullbacks. Many of these are short-term/hedging/market-making funds that take profits when prices fluctuate. On-chain, BTC exchange inventories have slightly replenished, with some old coins moved back onto exchanges when prices rise, preparing for swing trades or hedging.
In short, ETH is attracting allocation capital, while BTC reflects trading sentiment. But don't overlook: both are risk asset funds, and if macro conditions tighten or interest rate expectations rise, ETFs could withdraw simultaneously. In the short term, ETH's structure looks stronger, BTC depends on liquidity and options walls; operationally, don't use the same logic to bet on both.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $HYPE This time it's worth a second look.
It is upgrading from a "trading platform" to "on-chain financial infrastructure."
Recently, the testnet showed signs of a suspected large compliant exchange deploying the HIP-3 test environment, including institutional-level features such as access control, whitelisting, and permission management.
There is no official confirmation yet, but if it materializes, the significance is considerable:
The compliance capabilities of traditional institutions + on-chain transparent settlement + perpetual contract market may truly be coming together.
HIP-3 itself allows third parties to deploy perpetual markets on Hyperliquid. Once traditional financial institutions start connecting, the potential of HYPE is no longer just "an exchange token," but it may begin to be revalued by the market as financial infrastructure.
$BTC, as the liquidity core of the entire crypto market, will ultimately also benefit from the continuous expansion of on-chain financial infrastructure.
The biggest focus now is not how much it will rise, but rather—who will be the first institution to truly bring traditional finance into HIP-3.$SPCX｜Index rebalancing game, don't mistake front-running for passive buying
The overall market remains sluggish, volatility continues to decline, capital attention is scattered everywhere, and trading gradually becomes a daily routine task, wearing down traders' mentality.
$SPCX is currently moving in line with the Nasdaq adjustment rhythm, with relatively sufficient buying power on the board, but it's important to distinguish between two completely different types of capital. The number of new stocks and official weights will be announced after the market close on 9.11, while passive funds tracking the index will execute at the closing auction on 9.18 and officially take effect on 9.21.
In other words, the capital entering the market now is mostly front-running capital engaging in early speculation, not passive buying driven by the index.
History can refer to the market from 8.14 to 8.17, when capital pulled prices up in advance to reserve space for selling after the unlocking on 9.10, which is a typical event-driven speculative game.
Therefore, before the time windows of 9.10 and 9.18 arrive, SPCX is not suitable for blind short selling. In the short term, it is highly likely to maintain a stable oscillating pattern, but beware of the "sell the fact" risk after positive news is realized.#Strategy与BitMine同步增持
In the same week, one had an unrealized gain of 2.5 billion, the other an unrealized loss of 5.3 billion.
Strategy sold stocks to raise 370 million USD, bought 4,603 BTC at an average price of 80,000 USD each, bringing total holdings to 845,000 BTC, with an unrealized gain of 2.54 billion USD.
BitMine spent 132 million USD to buy 53,500 ETH, with total holdings of 5.9 million ETH, showing an unrealized loss of 5.29 billion USD. It staked 86% of its holdings, earning an annualized staking income of 335 million.
▪️ Strategy model: leveraged buying of coins, profiting from BTC appreciation beta
▪️ BitMine model: staking for yield, earning cash flow beyond ETH
▪️ But the 335 million interest is only 1/16 of the 5.3 billion unrealized loss
The divergence is not about whether to buy, but about what kind of money the treasury earns.
To get a sense of scale: 845,000 BTC is 4% of the global total, 5.9 million ETH accounts for 4.9%—nearly 10% of the crypto circulating supply is being turned into balance sheet figures by companies.
Can staking interest outperform coin price declines? In the next market cycle, will you back a BTC treasury or an ETH treasury? $xNVDA Nvidia's fundamentals are explosive, but the market is hesitant.
Good news: Vera Rubin has secured orders from all major clients. Jensen Huang said it will be the fastest product ramp-up in history, with Q3 accounting for 20% of data center revenue. Pending orders total $2 trillion, and the top five cloud providers' capital expenditures approach $800 billion in 2026, possibly reaching $1.3 trillion in 2027. Revenue could still grow 70% next year. 58 analysts have buy ratings with an average target price of $323 (current price $217, still 49% upside).
Reason for hesitation: growth is slowing, Q2 grew 106% but Q3 guidance is mid-80%, decelerating quarter by quarter. The past five earnings beats were all above expectations but the stock fell after four of them. Forward P/E is 18x, the lowest in 5 years, but "low valuation" does not mean "immediate rise"; catalysts are needed.
Key signals: If the CLARITY Act procedural vote passes on September 15, the entire crypto and AI sectors will benefit. Also, new Russian crypto regulations take effect today; Sberbank predicts $46 billion in trading volume in the first year, adding to global computing power demand.
Strategy: Hold long-term without selling, wait for Vera Rubin's volume data release to look for new catalysts. #BroadcomDellAIResults
How is this capex financed?
Hyperscalers aren't funding $50B+ backlogs from cash flow they're issuing debt at a pace unseen since dot-com. Earnings this week are also a story about credit markets absorbing that issuance while 10Y yields climb on their own.
AI capex pulling on capital, government debt quietly losing real value both bets that money now beats money later.
Watch if AI spending starts pressuring yields directly, not just inflation.
NFA.Everyone is doing BTCFi, but STX, CORE, MERL, and BABY are fundamentally different asset classes
⚠️ Risk Warning: This article is only for outlining track logic and technical architecture, and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto is highly volatile, please be sure to DYOR.
The Bitcoin ecosystem is booming, but many people tend to confuse STX, CORE, MERL, and BABY. In fact, although these four targets all carry the "BTCFi" label, their underlying positioning, security models, and business logic are completely different. Some are building elevated bridges, some are creating new continents, and others are doing "security business." Today, we will thoroughly clarify these four tracks in 1000 words.
1. Core Positioning: Four Completely Different Species
STX (Stacks): The "veteran" of Bitcoin native L2
Stacks is one of the earliest explorers of Bitcoin Layer 2. It uses a unique PoX consensus and Clarity language, aiming to implement smart contracts without modifying the Bitcoin mainnet.
Core logic: Connect assets through sBTC, allowing users to play DeFi on top of Bitcoin. After the Nakamoto upgrade, it achieves second-level confirmation, but its non-EVM nature means it is a relatively closed yet highly native track.
CORE (Core DAO): The "independent L1" with its own power grid
CORE is not a layer two but an independent Layer 1 public chain. It pioneered the Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus, "borrowing" idle computing power from Bitcoin miners to secure its own chain.
Core logic: Build an EVM-compatible "Bitcoin power grid." It serves not only retail users but also focuses on institutional-level lstBTC (liquid staking Bitcoin) business, aiming to become the underlying infrastructure for RWA and payments.
MERL (Merlin Chain): The "ZK express lane" for inscription players
MERL is an authentic Bitcoin ZK-Rollup Layer 2 network. It was created to solve congestion and high gas fees for BRC20 and inscription assets on the BTC mainnet.
Core logic: EVM-compatible, specifically serving liquidity release for BTC native assets (Ordinals/Runes). Its success heavily depends on the activity of the inscription market.
BABY (Babylon): The "wholesaler" of Bitcoin security
BABY has the most unique approach. It is not a chain for running applications but a Bitcoin staking protocol.
Core logic: Allows users to stake BTC directly on the Bitcoin mainnet, "renting out" the security of these BTC to other PoS public chains (such as the Cosmos ecosystem). It is currently the only solution to achieve BTC non-custodial staking.
2. Security Watershed: Who is truly guarding your BTC?
This is the most hardcore metric to distinguish these four projects.
BABY (top tier): BTC always remains in the Bitcoin mainnet UTXO, no cross-chain bridges, no wrapped assets (no wrapping), pure cryptographic staking. This is currently the safest trust model in the industry.
CORE (non-custodial): User BTC is locked in Bitcoin mainnet's CLTV time lock, private keys are not handed over to anyone. The main risk lies in the state synchronization mechanism of relay nodes (Relayers).
STX (consortium-based): Connects assets through sBTC, relying on a decentralized signer alliance. Although there are economic incentives and penalties, there is still a theoretical risk of alliance collusion.
MERL (custodial): User BTC enters MPC multi-signature custody addresses, mapping out stMBTC. Assets leave the mainnet, trusting the honesty of the MPC custodian, with counterparty risk.
3. Token Value Capture: Who is paying for the tokens?
STX: Burn model. Users consume STX when using the sBTC ecosystem; staking STX can earn BTC rewards (BTC-denominated yield).
CORE: Dual staking necessity. To obtain advanced yields, staking CORE is required; the official plan is to use revenue from institutional businesses like SatPay and lstBTC to buy back tokens.
MERL: Profit buyback. The official promise is to use 50% of ecosystem profits for MERL buybacks. On-chain gas primarily consumes BTC, MERL is mainly used for node staking and governance.
BABY: Security rent. PoS public chains pay Babylon fees to obtain Bitcoin-level security. Meanwhile, BABY is also the network's gas and governance token.
5. Summary
STX is the "conservative reformer" on Bitcoin, pursuing nativeness and stability.
CORE is the "radical infrastructure fanatic" in the Bitcoin world, pursuing scale and institutionalization.
MERL is the "traffic operator" of Bitcoin assets, pursuing speed and inscription popularity.
BABY is the "behind-the-scenes arms dealer" of Bitcoin security, pursuing ultimate cryptographic trust.
In this cycle, understanding which layer the asset is on (L1/L2/middleware) and who holds custody (non-custodial/custodial/consortium) is far more meaningful than just watching the K-line.
#STX #CORE #MERL #BABY #BTCFi US-Iran Military Conflict Escalates Again: Market Impact and Investment Analysis
The US-Iran confrontation continues to intensify, with market focus centered on the security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil supply, and the risk of spillover in the Middle East situation. Both sides have launched successive military actions, driving the market to reprice geopolitical risk premiums.
Core Logic of the Escalation
The US military struck Iran's rocket launch facilities on Larak Island, with the US stating that the facility posed a potential risk of laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. In retaliation, Iran launched ballistic missiles at US bases in Jordan and attacked US targets in the Gulf region. US President Trump stated that the US would impose severe retaliation on Iran.
This round marks another cycle of direct military confrontation between the US and Iran in over a month: the US strikes targets in Iran → Iran retaliates against US bases → the US threatens further retaliation. Neither side has explicitly stated an intention to start a full-scale war, but the chain of retaliation has formed, significantly increasing the risk of miscalculation and further escalation.
Jordan's strategic position is becoming increasingly critical. The country hosts US military bases and serves as an important hub for US air operations in the Middle East.
The greatest risk remains centered on the Strait of Hormuz. The US strike on Larak Island essentially revolves around this global energy chokepoint. If Iran continues to use missiles, drones, and mines to threaten shipping through the strait, global crude oil transportation will be impacted. About one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil passes through here, making oil prices highly sensitive to changes in the situation. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元 $TRUMP The Trump family's crypto money printing machine
I've long figured it out, who is still risking it by rushing into the President coin?
Today the volume is as thin as paper, the team casually smashed through it with a single move. Their team pumped coins into the Solana pool, withdrew USDC to cash out, and the market not "crashing" in essence is just unloading. Just after that: another batch was injected on-chain today, withdrawing 3.39 million USDC, just like on 8/23, transferring okx.$SPCX has now reached 143, and it really does seem like it could continue to surge, but at this level, I am actually more cautious.
Many viewpoints on Wall Street believe that $SPCX's current valuation is clearly too high. A new type of rocket company valued at the $2 trillion level—aren't these expectations too exaggerated?
From a purely fundamental perspective, I personally think the $70–80 range might be relatively reasonable. The current stock price is largely driven by market sentiment, Starship expectations, and Elon Musk's influence.
After all, $SPCX's core business is still rockets, Starlink, etc., and the Q1 financial report is still in a loss state. The Q2 report is expected to be released in December; if performance still shows no significant improvement, the pressure from the high valuation will sooner or later return to the market.
So at this 143 level, the divergence between bulls and bears is actually very large.
For those already holding positions, if the funding rate and position size are manageable, I actually think there is no need to easily close positions due to short-term fluctuations; but if leverage is too high, risk control is necessary.
The Starship launch plus unlocking expectations are pushing $SPCX to a critical point where sentiment and fundamentals are in a tug of war.
#SPCX #Starship #USStocks
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults In the first week of September, what I fear most now is not a sudden crash of BTC, but that the US employment data is "not bad enough".
This sentence sounds a bit counterintuitive.
The market has already pinned many hopes on a policy shift in September: weak employment = rising expectations of rate cuts = a breather for risk assets, everyone understands this logic#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Rebirth: My Trading in High School Campus 💻
(200u Stable Compound Interest Chapter)
$ETH Ethereum's one-hour chart is actually quite clear. Earlier, it dropped sharply from 2534 to 2386, then although it rebounded, it clearly faced resistance again around 2470-2480 🤔
Now the price is back around 2466, and the rebound strength is obviously not as strong as the previous drop #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Gm! September has begun!
This is historically bitcoin:native's worst performing month. But August was down there too and just had an amazing one so that's just to show how seasonality doesn't always apply.
Having said that, I think a lot of investors were waiting to allocate in September due to the historically mediocre August & September months. Since Q4/October is usually when the big upside moves for Bitcoin have started.#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Is the broad altcoin rally season over? Understanding the new real-money liquidity from SOL, KAS to HYPE
The eternal question retail investors care about most: When will the altseason actually arrive?
The reality is harsh: the previous era of "Bitcoin rising and all the trash altcoins soaring together" with a broad market rally has most likely ended permanently.
According to the latest ecosystem data from Binance Research and DefiLlama, as Bitcoin consolidates around the 80,000 mark, capital is extremely precisely flowing into three new strongholds:
First, high-performance trading public chains. Represented by Solana (SOL), on-chain active addresses and DEX trading volume continue to lead, with speculative capital always clustering in ecosystems with the most concentrated wealth-creating effects;
Second, fair distribution narratives. Represented by Kaspa (KAS), a pure PoW architecture, which, thanks to no pre-mining and pure community consensus, shows strong capital absorption in a volatile market;
Third, real yield and buyback dividends. Represented by Hyperliquid (HYPE), the leading on-chain perpetual derivatives platform, which relies on solid fee cash flow to buy back tokens, completely overturning the previous "pure hype, zero income, high valuation" VC air coins.
In the era of stock competition, only tokens with network effects, fair consensus, and real value generation capabilities can survive. Clinging to air coins with no income will only lead to ruthless elimination in a structural bull market. $TRUMP The Trump family's crypto money printing machine I've long figured it out, who is still risking it by rushing into the President coin? Today the volume is as thin as paper, the team casually smashed through it with a single move. Their team pumped coins into the Solana pool, withdrew USDC to cash out, and the market not "crashing" in essence is just unloading. Just after that: another batch was injected on-chain today, withdrawing 3.39 million USDC, just like on 8/23, transferring to OKX $BTC funding is at the 84th percentile, meaning traders are paying more than usual to keep longs open.
But 1-month IV is only at the 16th percentile, meaning the options market expects a relatively calm month.
Futures OI is also 0.4σ below its 1Y trend.
If this gap closes, we could see longs get flushed or volatility pick up fast#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults Coinbase's CEO made another statement: on-chain reputation will replace FICO credit scores. His logic is that a public ledger can prove repayment ability, multiple lenders share the same data, and on-chain lending can already provide unsecured credit lines up to $3,000.
Some bloggers directly poured cold water on this, and I agree with most of it: on-chain identities can be created in bulk at zero cost, reputation scores can be manipulated, and real lending with actual money still relies on collateral. The hardest part of credit evaluation is not the data, but preventing fraud. On-chain reputation can be used as an auxiliary reference, but replacing FICO? It's still too early.