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A small American town handed over the entire city's WiFi to blockchain, $HNT doubled in a week
Today, no talk about the big market, let's talk about something interesting: Celina, a small town in Texas, has a population growth of 24% in one year, and the base stations can't keep up, so they simply transformed the entire city's WiFi into mobile coverage on the blockchain.
The protagonist is $HNT, which rose 110% in a week and surged another 15% in 24 hours.
Why did the market suddenly buy in so much?
1: There are real customers, not just empty promises
Celina is a real customer of Helium, with about 100GB of data running on-chain daily in this city. DePIN has talked about "decentralized networks" for years, but this is the first real city-level implementation.
2: Shorts got squeezed out
The rise was too fast, many people opened short positions betting it would fall, but shorts were liquidated for over one million dollars, and the more it rose, the more people chased it. This kind of short squeeze is often the most intense phase of the market.
3: Token logic is tightening
Miner rewards are starting to link to real network usage—the more people use it, the more tokens are burned. Plus, integration with Solana is also progressing, making the story more complete.
Reminder: $HNT doubled in a week, short squeeze rallies come fast and go fast, with resistance around 0.97. DePIN is a good sector, but chasing something that has already doubled requires caution Can be compressed into a more impactful short version, retaining the “data triple set” and non-farm payroll trading logic:
【Pharaoh Market Watch｜Non-Farm Preview】⚠️
Non-farm payrolls haven’t been released yet, but the appetizer has already confused the market.
Employment data continues to diverge: hiring slows down, but unemployment rate and wages haven’t collapsed significantly. August ADP increased by only 38,000, well below expectations; the market’s bet on a September rate hike still remains above 60%.
Tonight, the real focus isn’t just on new jobs, but on:
🔥 Unemployment rate + Hourly wages + Previous data revisions
• Strong data → rate hike expectations heat up → BTC under pressure
• Moderate cooling → “Goldilocks” scenario → BTC likely to rebound to 80K
• Data shockingly weak → initial rate cut speculation, but possible recession trading afterward → spike then fall
In short:
Too strong fears rate hikes, too weak fears recession, only a moderate scenario is BTC’s most comfortable script.
Avoid high leverage before non-farm; the first candlestick will likely fake out, don’t rush to be cannon fodder.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#NonFarmDataDivergence #SeptemberRateHikeExpectationsHeatingUp 6 In this version, I helped you shorten it a bit and changed "laying long positions before earnings" to a more prudent expression; also, public information confirms that SanDisk indeed held an Investor Day on August 13, and MU's next earnings date is September 30.
Last time SanDisk drove my short position up to 1800 causing a liquidation, so this time for MU's earnings, I have to remember the lesson.
On August 13 at SanDisk Investor Day, I shorted from 1200 all the way up, but it went straight to 1800, a harsh lesson: in front of earnings and guidance, don't easily fight the trend.
MU's earnings are coming again on September 30.
Currently, the storage market remains strong, AI data center demand continues, MU's last quarter revenue reached 41.46B with a gross margin of 84.6%, and the company previously guided Q4 revenue around 50B with a gross margin about 86%.
After $SNDK's surge this year, market expectations are already very high. The more good news, the more you have to guard against "good news being priced in."
So this time, I won't bet on the market direction in advance.
I'll wait for MU's earnings to be released, see the performance, guidance, and market reaction, then find the position.
I haven't forgotten the tuition fee from last liquidation.
$SNDK $MU $SKHYNIXETH has fallen below 2400 again……
Holding positions really feels unpleasant, especially since I was waiting for this level to act as a short-term anchor, but it got broken through by a wave of macro sentiment. Last night, ADP was soft, with private sector job additions below expectations. On the surface, this looks like a cooling labor market, theoretically leaving some room for rate cut expectations; but the market is more conflicted now—sticky inflation, high interest rates, and no real easing in the dollar and short-term US Treasuries, so weak employment doesn’t necessarily translate immediately into a positive for risk assets. Instead, it might first trade as "growth concerns."
Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the key test this week. If cooling continues, the rate cut narrative will get some support, and ETH might try to reclaim 2400; if the data turns stronger again, the Fed’s path will tighten back, and liquidity sentiment in crypto will remain tight. Technically, after losing 2400, we need to watch if it’s a false break, focusing on volume recovery and support below, not just relying on gut feeling to buy. On-chain/ETF and futures chip sentiment are also influencing the rhythm. ETH isn’t just about the chart now; it’s waiting for macro to give direction.
In terms of trading, don’t bet on the data—go light, set stop losses, and wait for confirmation. Only if it reclaims and holds above 2400 can the structure be considered a bit better; otherwise, treat it as weak for now.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 September 3 Comprehensive Analysis News Real-Time Update
Market Characterization: Macro has shifted from "unilateral rate hike trading" to "data-driven game" — After the ADP surprise (38,000), the probability of a September rate hike fell back to ~45%, but the US-Iran conflict + oil price at 90–95 + 10Y yield at a 19-month high remain suppressive factors. BTC is operating within the 75–80K range, with the September 4 Nonfarm Payrolls and mid-September FOMC tone set.
Strongest On-Chain Theme: Robinhood Chain ecosystem (DEX surpasses 900 million/week with 8.26 million revenue) — $ARB B revenue return and $UNI fee capture are the most valuable branches; the "new market structure" of stock tokens × Meme is worth continuous tracking, but beware of Meme overextension risk.
Institutional Catalysts: RWA/tokenized securities (DTCC services in October, SEC new ETF opinions, Nasdaq standards, HashKey joining DTCC) and stablecoin regulation (Thailand travel rule, GENIUS Act, HKDAP) are entering an intensive implementation phase; institutionalization is the most certain long-term narrative for 2026.
Risk List: ① Marginal selling pressure of 28,000 BTC by mining companies within the year; ② August security losses of $215 million and price manipulation becoming mainstream attack methods (Injective vulnerability, CHUMP control warning) Alright, let's chat about the job of a “Earnings Observer.” But first, a disclaimer: I don't have a real-time market terminal here, so for exact beat margins down to two decimal places or precise guidance numbers, you should rely on the official earnings call. We'll just break down the highlights based on the recent patterns from Broadcom and Snowflake, like having a casual tea chat after market close. --- First, let's talk about Broadcom: Earnings beat expectations, but where exactly? Broadcom is quite interesting. Its CEO, Hock Tan, is a typical “cash flow fanatic,” not one for storytelling, just crunching numbers. Whenever their earnings beat expectations, it's rarely due to a single surprise but rather a few business segments “collaborating”: 1. AI Custom Chips (ASICs) are the biggest driver Broadcom makes custom AI accelerators (like TPUs) for big companies like Google and Meta. In recent years, these giants don't want to just buy Nvidia cards; they also want to develop their own cost-effective, efficient dedicated chips, and Broadcom fills that niche. A beat usually means AI-related revenue growth has exploded again, and next quarter's guidance is raised. They won't say “we sold 1 million units,” but will say things like “AI semiconductor revenue doubled year-over-year.” 2. Network chips ride the wave With more GPUs in data centers, demand for switches, routers, and optical modules surges. Broadcom's Tomahawk and Jericho series switch chips are hard currency; this segment is often the “second engine” behind the beat.Data doesn't lie. When almost all the voices you hear are bullish, but what you actually see is that trading activity is inactive and momentum is weakening — you should trust what you see.
At the same time, the exchange's SVD shows a stepwise decrease in the strength of active buying as the price rises, which also tells us that continuing to surge ahead will be quite challenging.
However... what's quite interesting is that when the price starts to fall, the SVD's trough is gradually rising!
Looking at this alone, my understanding is that the current selling willingness is not strong, and the new price lows are not accompanied by heavier active selling. This still falls within the normal digestion range after a breakout.
Currently, my personal view is: don't have overly high expectations for the depth of the pullback. Especially when those who missed the first wave of the rally are all waiting for a decent correction.On September 1, the total holdings of $BTC spot ETFs dropped to 1,257,447.30 BTC, with a net reduction of 3,153.48 BTC on the day. On August 31, there was a net increase of 2,599.33 BTC, but on September 1 it turned back to outflow, indicating a clear fluctuation after a period of continuous replenishment in recent days.
In the first two trading days of this week, there was a cumulative net reduction of 554.14 BTC. Over the past 7 trading days, there is still a cumulative net increase of 11,439.31 BTC, showing that the short-term capital advantage has not completely disappeared but has been significantly compressed compared to the end of August; the cumulative decrease since the start of September is 3,153.48 BTC, and since 2026, a total decrease of 40,519.63 BTC.
Currently, it looks more like a rapid decline in capital strength, not all products are withdrawing simultaneously yet, but if large single reductions continue, the cumulative net inflow over the past 7 trading days could easily be further eroded.$ETH at $2,500 — do you think it's expensive? Arthur Hayes has already seen $10,000 ETH. Today's price: 2,390. Arthur Hayes' year-end target: 10,000. Potential upside: +318%. You might say, "Another pump call." But Hayes doesn't make calls lightly. The situation is unfolding! Cashing out! First, let's see what's happening in France. On September 2, the yield on France's 10-year government bonds reached 4.17%. On September 1, it was even higher, hitting 4.21% at one point. Approaching the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. France's government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to reach 118.5% in 2026 and exceed 120% in 2027. French bank stocks fell 3% to 4% in one day. The entire European bond market is collapsing. Then look at what the US is doing. On August 19, the US Treasury announced it would at least double the scale of long-term bond buybacks — from $2 billion to $4 billion. Effective from September 9, covering bonds from 10-year to 30-year maturities. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also said, "It could exceed $4 billion." The US government is personally stepping in to buy its own debt. Connecting these points — Hayes' logic is as follows: France collapses → French banks are forced to shrink repo market financing → US Treasury financing costs rise → Hedge funds deleverage → New York Fed is forced to expand repo operations → The Fed accelerates its monthly balance sheet expansion to nearly $1 billion. This isToday, the entire market is consolidating on low volume.
Bitcoin is tugging back and forth around 7.7, similar to the previous tugging around 6.3.
As long as it can hold steady at this level, a beautiful spring lies ahead.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated about $152 million, with long positions liquidated around $103 million. The Fear and Greed Index rose to 71, entering the "Greed" zone, but the altcoin season index is only 32, indicating the market has not yet fully expanded.
However, policy risks must also be noted. Federal Reserve Chair Powell delivered a hawkish speech at the annual meeting, confirming the 2% inflation target as a "hard constraint," emphasizing that inflation has not been met.
The expectation for a rate hike in September surged from about 36% before the speech to 57%.
CME FedWatch data shows traders' bets on a September rate hike have climbed to 57%.
Bitcoin at 77,000 is digesting the impact of Powell's hawkish speech.
The 57% probability of a September rate hike is the biggest sword hanging over the market.
If this sword falls, Bitcoin will very likely return to around 6.3 to continue consolidating. CAPITAL IS SHIFTING
Latest ETF data shows institutional flows are diverging. On Sept. 1, $BTC ETFs recorded -$236.46M, while $ETH posted +$10.95M, $SOL +$10.19M, and $HYPE +$1.76M.
ETF flows are no longer moving with price. This suggests investors are reallocating capital rather than exiting crypto. Selective demand for $ETH, $SOL, and $HYPE remains visible, while $BTC faces profit-taking pressure.
ETF flows are becoming a key signal for tracking where larger capital is moving. Broadcom delivered a financial report that almost every CEO dreams of: revenue of $29.591 billion, a year-over-year surge of 86%; AI semiconductor revenue of $16.7 billion, soaring 221% year-over-year, accounting for 56% of total revenue. Even more striking is its long-term blueprint: AI revenue doubling to $115 billion in fiscal 2027, then doubling again to $230 billion in fiscal 2028. Yet, it fell 6% after hours. What about Snowflake? Revenue of $1.55 billion, up only 35% year-over-year, with a full-year guidance raise of less than 4%, mentioning that AI coding tool CoCo is "adoption accelerating." It surged 21% after hours. One talks about "doubling in two years," the other about "a good quarter." The market crushed the former and exalted the latter. This is the part of the news that feels most off to me: it’s not the divergence in performance, but the collapse of the "time horizon." The market has regressed to the point where it cannot price anything beyond 90 days. Change the subject to "that ignored doubling blueprint." If the subject is "Broadcom," the story is "guidance not impressive enough." If the subject is "Snowflake," the story is "AI deployment accelerating." But if the subject is changed to that "consecutive doubling blueprint" that the market discarded like trash, the absurdity of the whole narrative emerges. What did Broadcom say on the earnings call? Not "we will do better next quarter," but "AI computing demand is not a passing fad, but a super cycle measured in years with consecutive doubling." It even provided specific numbers:Today, AKE suddenly exploded. It rose more than 70 points in 24 hours, and many people might not even know what this coin is for. Actually, AKE's story is very easy to understand: you say a word to AI, and it helps you create a game. For example, you tell it: "Help me make a monster-fighting and leveling mini-game." Different AI Agents in AKEDO help you with maps, rules, storylines, and even game balance. According to official promotions, it can turn an idea into a playable game in as little as two minutes. So you can think of AKEDO as: "an AI version of a game maker." And after finishing the game, you can continue tokenizing content, issuing tokens, and creating Launchpads. So it stacks three concepts that are currently popular in the crypto world: AI, gaming, and token issuance platforms. So why did it suddenly surge so fiercely today? After checking, I didn't see a huge positive sign enough to explain a seventy-plus point increase. Instead, there's a very shocking statistic: in the past 24 hours, AKE contracts saw nearly $30 million in liquidations, with over 90% of them being short positions. What does that mean? Simply put: the price rises first→ shorts get liquidated→ forced to buy back and close their positions→ pushing the price up. So today's big bullish candlestick is likely not just because funds are optimistic about AI games, but also with a very obvious short-squeeze component. But AKE has a risk that must be mentioned. Its maximum supply is...#21 Financial Institutions Plan to Launch Dollar Stablecoin
Circle's stock dropped 6% because 21 banks announced: Dollar stablecoin, issued by ourselves.
▪️ Company formation in the second half of 2026, launch in the first half of 2027
▪️ 17 systemically important banks including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citibank, Deutsche Bank, UBS...
▪️ Compliance with GENIUS + MiCA, targeting the window when the January legislation takes effect
▪️ Market size 303 billion, USDT accounts for 60% alone
The disagreement is not about whether they can issue it, but whether anyone will use it once issued. Société Générale issued a dollar coin last year, circulating 12.5 million — a banking license does not automatically equal demand. USDT's moat is ten years of liquidity and 200,000 trading pairs, not a compliance certificate.
BTC perspective: This is the foundation, not the ammunition. A product launching only in 2027 won't affect this week's market, but
The wider the compliance capital pipeline, the bigger the BTC pool — a long-term narrative, not a short-term signal.
Will bank-issued coins shake USDT, or is this just another Société Générale moment?STX doubled in two weeks, but I want to wait until after September 10 to buy more
The market is currently hyping Stacks' "institutional-grade Bitcoin Staking," but after checking the official schedule, I found that the actual Genesis Bond is expected to launch on September 10, with registration closing on September 9, and the first batch of rewards coming even later.
More importantly: the first phase is only open to pre-approved institutions, and the BTC capacity is deliberately limited. HashKey Cloud has confirmed participation, and Fordefi also provides institutional-grade self-custody support, which means the infrastructure is real, but the first phase still feels more like a small-scale pilot test rather than a flood of big money rushing in immediately.
STX has recently risen from about 0.128 to 0.257, with the price already trading future expectations.
My trading direction is very short-term: I will consider following the trend only if it stabilizes above 0.27; if it falls back below 0.24, I will wait.
If the coin price has already doubled but the product's first phase is still limited, would you buy based on expectations or wait for the real BTC lock-up data to come out?#21 Financial Institutions Plan to Launch USD Stablecoin
According to recent industry developments, 21 global financial institutions including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citibank, Fidelity, Deutsche Bank, UBS, and others have jointly announced plans to launch a USD stablecoin in the first half of 2027. The alliance spans North America, Europe, East Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. This is not a trial; they are directly establishing a joint venture company with a clear goal to go live in the first half of 2027.
Their real ace is choosing to issue on a public blockchain. USDT and USDC dominate the market due to first-mover advantage and distribution channels, with all exchanges, wallets, and DeFi protocols integrated with them. The banking alliance’s choice of public chains means their stablecoin can access the same infrastructure from day one. Holding trillions of dollars in customer deposits and a global payment network, once connected, the channel moat of USDT and USDC will be directly bypassed.
In the short term, the collective entry of 21 Wall Street institutions equates to the highest level of compliance endorsement for the crypto industry. After ETFs, this is the second wave of institutionalization. But in the medium to long term, the true target of bank stablecoins is not BTC, but USDT and USDC. The total stablecoin market size is about $310.4 billion, with USDT accounting for $183.3 billion and USDC $73.8 billion. Wall Street is aiming at this piece of the pie. The crypto market infrastructure is upgrading, and BTC as the underlying asset will only become stronger. What do you think? $BTC $ETH $SOL #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 It's not that there are too few new coins now, but that there are too few coins that make people want to open the app ten times a day. How long has it been since you opened an app because you "wanted to use it" rather than "feared missing out"? Here's my judgment: the market has reached a point where it's no longer about blindly chasing; it's more like a time window for selecting the right feel. Those that rise sharply aren't necessarily driven by real demand, and those that fall the least aren't necessarily safe havens. The market is no longer trading on narrative freshness, but on who can retain users after the narrative fades. Recently, I've narrowed my radar to focus only on a few ecosystems that are truly building usage habits. - Bitcoin's identity has long been clear; it is the time scale of this market and needs no further explanation. - Ethereum's developer and application depth means no other Layer 1 can catch up in the short term, which determines its valuation floor. - Solana's bet is on consumer-level applications; if a breakout app really lands someday, it will be the fastest to reap the benefits. - Payment, oracles, lending, tokenization, on-chain trading—each track has its leaders, but the real gap is whether they are repeatedly called in real transactions. I don't care much about how loud a community shouts. Noise creates volatility but not dependency. I prefer to look at a few concrete things: whether daily active users are increasing, whether transaction volume is growing naturally, whether developers are continuously submitting code, whether protocol revenue can cover incentives. Also, whether there is a product that users are willing to actively recommend. Issuing a token takes only a few minutes, but building one that$BTC ETF funds have shown a clear outflow again ⚠️
The US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net outflow of about $236.5 million, with Fidelity outflowing about $43.7 million. Note, this is more accurately described as ETF fund redemptions and does not equal the fund actively dumping, but in the short term it does increase supply pressure on the spot side.
Now the key is 78K:
ETF selling pressure continues to expand + insufficient spot absorption → 78K may be repeatedly tested.
But if it can withstand an outflow pressure of over $200 million, it actually indicates strong support below.
🔥 78K is the bulls' first pressure test.
If it holds, there is still room for a rebound; if it breaks, volatility may further increase.
Moreover, before the non-farm payrolls, market bets on a September rate hike have risen to about 66%, so macro pressure is also significant.
#BTC #PreNonFarmDataDivergence #SeptemberRateHikeExpectationsRising #FOMC last set of data before: Nonfarm Payrolls this Friday
At 20:30 Beijing time on Friday, the US August Nonfarm Payrolls will be released. This is the last major employment data before the September FOMC meeting, directly impacting the pricing of the dollar, US Treasuries, gold, BTC, and the US stock AI sector.
Current background
After Jackson Hole, Waller released a hawkish statement: the pace of inflation decline is insufficient, and the Federal Reserve still retains the option to raise rates. The market's pricing for a September rate hike is close to 60%. July's Nonfarm Payrolls unexpectedly turned negative (-23,000), sounding an alarm for the market. August market expectations are for about 58,000 new jobs and a 4.1% unemployment rate. The key focus is also on average hourly earnings growth, as wages are a core source of service inflation.
Three scenario simulations
1. Nonfarm Payrolls and wages significantly exceed expectations
Employment resilience plus wage rebound would continue to raise September rate hike expectations. US Treasury yields and the dollar would surge; gold would be under pressure, and BTC and US growth stocks would face valuation pressure, likely triggering a sharp pullback.
2. Nonfarm Payrolls weaken significantly, wages cool down
Employment cools, and rate hike expectations quickly recede. The dollar and US Treasury yields decline, benefiting gold. Risk assets like BTC and US stock AI would see a short-term rebound window.
3. Data falls within expected range
This would not change the overall direction; the market would remain volatile, awaiting subsequent CPI inflation data. Nonfarm Payrolls are just a precursor; inflation is Waller's true decision-making trump card.The float hasn't moved, don't pull the rod yet
— Crypto Market Notes for September 2
Main text:
Today's bearish candle is not a story told by the crypto circle itself.
BTC probed around 76,300, closing between 77,300–77,600. ETH returned to 2,390–2,430. SOL broke below the $100 psychological level, hovering around 99. OKB slid from around 111 to near 106, down about 4%–5% in one day. DOGE is still grinding near 0.082. The total market cap is about $2.67–2.70 trillion, with BTC dominance at 57.6%. The Fear & Greed Index remains at 63–65, indicating greed but cooler than the previous day.
Let's put the numbers on the table first, without calling direction.
1. What is the market doing?
On August 27 and 28, BTC touched 81,000–81,500, then stepped down continuously. The past three days have basically been the same story: the upper boundary can't break through 79,000–80,000, while the lower boundary still holds at 76,000 for now. Standing above the 20-day moving average (around 73,900), the mid-term structure is intact; but the evidence for a renewed main uptrend in these three days is insufficient.
The futures market is noisier. In the past 24 hours, the whole network liquidated about $290–370 million, with a higher proportion of longs being wiped out, wiping out positions at the hundred-thousand level. On the surface, it looks like a slight dip, but underwater, a whole boat of people has capsized.
Altcoins hurt more than BTC. SOL and TRX dropped just over 3% in one day, the Meme sector overall about -3%, and sentiment coins like PUMP and TRUMP even harder. Some small coins still have individual surges, but that's liquidity moving, not a seasonal shift. The altcoin season index is still at 0 — it's still Bitcoin season now.
2. Why the drop? Don't look for reasons inside crypto
Today's selling pressure mainly comes from outside.
US-Iran conflict flared up again, pushing oil prices back above $90. US Treasury yields rose, with the market pricing about a 66%–68% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike on September 16. Crypto assets pay no interest; when rate hike expectations rise, they are the first chips to be moved out.
On September 4, the US August nonfarm payrolls will be released. If employment is strong, rate hike pricing will harden; if weak, short-term risk assets get some breathing room. Before that, interpreting a single intraday bearish candle as a "bull-bear switch" is mistaking weather for seasons.
3. Institutions are changing seats this week, not leaving the market
In August, US spot Bitcoin ETFs had net inflows of about $3.52 billion, the strongest month so far in 2026. September started cold: on September 1, net outflows were about $236 million, with BlackRock IBIT alone withdrawing about $201 million. On September 2, outflows narrowed to tens of millions, ranging between $15 million and $45 million depending on the metric.
On the same day, Solana spot ETF absorbed about $102 million on September 1; Ethereum ETFs still had slight net inflows. This is not "institutions abandoning Bitcoin," but more like after August's rally, they first trimmed the most crowded positions a bit and moved bullets to other seats.
Remember one thing: August inflows are the trend; the outflows in the first two days of September are the weather. Weather can create pits but cannot drain the whole lake alone.
4. OKB: Ugly today, but the month hasn't turned sour yet
OKB indeed looks worse than the market today, dropping from 111 to 106. But zoom out: in the past 30 days, it still gained about 20% to 24%. Platform tokens experience both ecological and sentiment volatility; a 4% single-day move is not enough to change beliefs, let alone to leverage for revenge.
My own approach hasn't changed: slow is fast. The portion for dollar-cost averaging doesn't look at daily candles. For swing trading, first acknowledge that 106 is not a "bottom signal," just a pause point after dropping from the 116 high. A pause point can be observed, not a command.
5. How should the fisherman sit on this bench?
The easiest way to capsize by the lake is not that there are no fish, but that people act first when the float doesn't move.
Three boring things are suitable to do today:
1. BTC 76,000 is the first step of this correction; if lost, look at the 20-day line near 73,900. Before breaking, treat it as consolidation, not a crash.
2. Reduce futures positions if possible. The liquidation list has been reviewed once; no need to compete to be the next page.
3. Follow original rules for spot base positions and dollar-cost averaging. Rules survive, people betray first — that's the most common death in crypto.
Three things not suitable to do: chase altcoins still jumping today, treat seeds as food to "break even," or interpret geopolitical conflicts as precise K-line trading signals. Conflicts affect oil prices and rate expectations, not the win rate of your next 20x trade.
6. From tomorrow to Friday, just watch two things
One is whether 76,000 holds. If it holds, it's digestion after August's rally; if not, then talk about structure.
Two is Friday's nonfarm payrolls. Before the numbers come out, any "must rise or fall tonight" is someone else's business, not your system.
The market will come again. The question is never if it will come again, but whether you are still by the lake when it does.
The float hasn't moved, don't pull the rod yet.
— Fisherman
September 3, 2026
The above is a personal market record and does not constitute investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; profits and losses are your own responsibility.
#FOMC last data set before Friday's nonfarm
$BTC $OKB # Latest Updates
- Trump hinted that military action against Iran would not be prolonged, but hardliners in Iran are preparing for a prolonged retaliatory war; Brent crude remains at $95, with global inflation and monetary policy outlook highly uncertain.
- Williams showed a cautious attitude before the blackout period, inflation trends are downward but he emphasized waiting for data; August ADP was only 38,000, below expectations, next week's inflation data will be the key anchor.
- Broadcom fell 0.8% after hours, next quarter guidance below optimistic expectations but fiscal years 27-28 forecasts exceeded expectations; more than half of the incremental growth comes from Anthropic and OpenAI, concerns about dependence on major clients remain.
- BTC reported at $77,100, ETH at $2,383; BTC ETF net outflow of $236 million on September 1; CME premium at 0.22%, USDC supply increased by 0.19% month-on-month to $73.69 billion.
# Trading Analysis
- Conclusion remains unchanged: Brent crude at $95, inflation diffusion is the real test, geopolitical disturbances are not fundamental deterioration.
- Trump's TACO remarks slightly pressured yields, the US-Iran stalemate makes inflation and rate hike paths uncertain. Williams was cautious before the blackout period, the September rate cut path is not derailed, next week's CPI is the anchor. More of a geopolitical sentiment disturbance rather than fundamental deterioration.
- Broadcom's mere 0.8% drop shows expectations are digested, logic shifts to ROI verification; more than half of the incremental growth comes from two major clients, concerns about revolving financing remain.$ETH is showing relatively notable strength.
The Ethereum ETF in the US has recorded 12 consecutive inflow sessions, although the most recent inflow was only about $11M. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin ETF is under withdrawal pressure and BTC remains around $77K. (InsigtX)
This indicates that institutional funds are diversifying rather than completely exiting.
If the ETH ETF continues to attract capital while BTC remains flat, Ethereum may continue to draw market attention.
The inflow rate is slowing down — this is a point to watch.
#ETH #Ethereum A particularly face-slapping scene for the "digital gold" narrative tonight: Shanghai gold rose 2% in one day, silver rose over 1%, crude oil climbed back above $90 — solid anti-inflation assets all strengthening together; meanwhile, $BTC is wilting almost motionless. Everyone says Bitcoin is digital gold, but whenever real inflation hits and oil prices reignite rate hike expectations#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #SaudiCrude9YearLow Non-farm payrolls landing tonight, BTC focuses on these three scenarios 👀
First, look at the preliminary data:
Yesterday's ADP was only 38,000, significantly below the expected 48,000, signaling further cooling in employment.
Historically, after ADP weakens, the probability that non-farm payrolls continue to weaken is about 60%; a large reversal exceeding expectations is about 25%, and falling near expectations is about 15%.
The market expectation for non-farm payrolls tonight is 55,000.
① Non-farm < 55,000 | Probability 60% 📈
Both large and small non-farm payrolls weaken → rate cut expectations rise → USD and US Treasury yields come under pressure.
BTC may first surge quickly.
But note: if the price has already risen fully during the day, after the data release, there may be profit-taking and a pullback.
If the rise has not been fully priced in beforehand, it is easier to form a sustained upward trend, with bulls dominating.
② Non-farm > 55,000 | Probability 25% 📉
Although ADP is weak, official employment data unexpectedly strengthens → rate cut expectations are delayed → market turns more hawkish.
The scenario may be a stronger USD, BTC quickly plunging, even spiking below key support, triggering bull stop-losses.
Volatility will be very high in this case, with a clear increase in the risk of contract losses on both sides.
③ Non-farm 45,000~65,000 | Probability 15% ⚖️
Data basically meets market expectations, neither significantly weakening nor strengthening.
The Fed's original judgment will not be obviously changed for the time being, and BTC will most likely continue to fluctuate, waiting for new catalysts. The price is around $77.7K and has already returned above MA7, MA14, and MA28. Everything seems fine. But then I opened derivatives. And here the picture became less clear. Among the top 100 traders, long/short is 1.41:1. Among position holders, it's about 1.21:1. So there are more longs. Funding is also positive. But the net flow of derivatives over 24 hours is -$53.2M. And futures are trading slightly below the index. So the price is recovering, but I don't yet see strong confirmation from derivatives. That's why right now I don't just want to So what exactly is Trump's attitude towards Bitcoin?
My judgment — he is not a believer, he is a manipulator. Bitcoin is a card in his hand, used to play against China, pull votes, and feed family businesses. The day this card stops working, he'll turn on it faster than flipping a page.
But for those of us at the table, the key is — he won't flip the table in the short term. Strategic reserves are established, the Clarity Act is being pushed, and the slogan "World Cryptocurrency Capital" has been proclaimed — this narrative won't self-contradict anytime soon.
The truth in the crypto world has never been about "believing or not," but about "who holds the chips." Now, one of the largest chip holders globally is the U.S. president who calls himself a "super fan." Whether he truly believes or not is irrelevant; he holds 300,000 BTC and doesn't sell, which is the biggest fundamental for the market.
The rest, you decide for yourself.
---
(Disclaimer: The above is purely my personal rambling and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is risky, enter cautiously, and don't blame me if you lose money.) $BTC $ETH $SOL #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 #FinancialReportObserver: Broadcom's performance exceeds expectations, Snowflake raises guidance
The boss has something to say
BTC has fallen from above 80,000 to around 78,000, fluctuating at a high level. The Grayscale report says the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has risen above 50%, while the correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has dropped to 33%.
The two lines are switching. BTC is shifting from tech stock logic to gold logic, trading US dollar credit and scarce assets. US Treasury yields are rising again, and the Treasury's buyback effect only lasted a week.
September is seasonally weak, but it has closed higher in the past three years; take this data with a grain of salt.
The key is whether BTC can really follow gold. If it does, 80,000 won't be the top. If not, interest rate and seasonal pressures will continue to push it down.
Holding short positions on ZEC, continuing with $BTC $ETH $SOL
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.Now about the market reaction.
On July 6, he said, "I am a staunch supporter of cryptocurrency," and Bitcoin surged about 1.4% that day to $63,571. On August 19, at the White House crypto summit, he urged Congress to quickly pass the Clarity Act, and Bitcoin rallied more than 5% in a single day, once approaching $70,000. But on September 1, after confirming an airstrike on Iran, Bitcoin fell below $77,000 again.
His words alone can crash or pump the market—this is the "Trump volatility."
To be blunt—since the all-time high of 126,000 last October, Bitcoin's market cap has evaporated by over $1.2 trillion, wiping out all gains accumulated during Trump's second term. The policy environment is all positive: strategic reserves, stablecoin legislation, relaxed SEC enforcement, yet the price situation is a mess. $ETH $SOL $BTC #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 Entered $TRUMP at 2.203, 50x leverage, floating profit of 68 points.
On-chain data revealed something:
The TRUMP token team address transferred 2.8 million TRUMP to centralized exchanges within one day, worth 6.52 million USD. The day before yesterday, they transferred out 11.01 million tokens, and early this morning, they transferred another 800,000 tokens to Binance.
In plain language: the project team is offloading.
How to read the market?
The price is now around 2.233, right between the MA5 and MA10 range (2.435-2.426), with MA50 pressing down at 2.48 above. Short-term moving averages have already turned downward; after the big bullish candle on August 22, momentum is fading.
Short-term support is at 2.30; if broken, it will likely retest 2.20-2.17. On the upside, 2.52 is the first hurdle; failing to break it means a rebound, not a reversal.
Good news:
It rose from 1.37 to a high of 3.6, now retracing near 2.2, down nearly 40%, indicating short-term oversold conditions. RSI is in a neutral zone, no extreme overselling.
Current assessment:
· Long position logic: oversold rebound + support near 2.2
· Biggest risk: the project team is still offloading, selling pressure continues
· Key levels: if 2.30 support fails, next is 2.17; breaking above 2.52 opens view to 2.7
Hold for now, set stop loss at 2.15. Exit if broken, otherwise wait for rebound. #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升
Short-term bullish for crude oil, indirectly bearish for BTC and high Beta assets $BTC
Currently, Brent is fluctuating around $95
WTI about $91
If oil prices continue to approach $100,
the market will reprice
Energy rise → inflation heats up → Fed finds it harder to cut rates/or even hikes → US Treasury yields rise → risk assets under pressure$SOL dropped more than 3% today, once again approaching the $100 mark. The logic behind this decline is actually quite clear: rising oil prices and higher U.S. Treasury yields have reignited market concerns about inflation and interest rates, prompting capital to reduce risk as a first reaction. BTC is relatively resilient, but high-beta assets like SOL, $ETH, and $DOGE are clearly under pressure, with profit-taking combined with leveraged liquidations naturally concentrating selling pressure.From "scam" to "super fan," Trump's attitude toward Bitcoin hides signals more important than price
Brothers, today we won't talk about K-lines, but about a person—Trump.
A few days ago, at the White House "Trump account" launch ceremony, Trump, in front of the Treasury Secretary, SEC Chair, NYSE and Nasdaq heads, said something that shook the entire crypto community: "I am now a super fan of cryptocurrency." When asked if Bitcoin would be included in the account, he left the door open: "Yes, some things could happen."
But what’s truly worth savoring is not this sentence itself, but what he added afterward—
"The only reason I became a staunch supporter of cryptocurrency is that if we don’t seize it, China will get it first."
Did you get that? In his eyes, Bitcoin has never been a technological revolution or a decentralized ideal; it is a geopolitical chess piece, the next card in the China-US competition. This guy went from calling Bitcoin a "scam" and not real money in 2019, to signing an executive order in 2025 to build a strategic Bitcoin reserve, and then to self-proclaiming as a "super fan" in 2026—the attitude has done a 180-degree turn, driven by four words: cannot lose to China. $BTC $ETH $SOL #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农，但市场已经为它“预支”了一个完整的定价周期：9月加息概率从35%翻倍到65%，10年期美债收益率逼近4.80%，比特币跌破7.7万美元。这一切都发生在数据并不存在的那几天里。 这才是这条新闻里最不对劲的地方：一份还没有发生的就业报告，已经在资产价格里“活”了一周。而它真正落地的时候，反而可能什么都不改变。 把主语换成“那段数据真空期” 如果主语是“非农”，故事是“临门一脚”。如果主语是“美联储”，故事是“骑虎难下”。但如果主语换成沃什讲话和非农公布之间那段没有数据的三四天，整个叙事就变得诡异起来。 在那段时间里，市场上没有任何硬数据。没有就业报告，没有CPI，没有FOMC会议。唯一存在的，是沃什在杰克逊霍尔说的一句话：“通胀仍然高于目标。” 就是这句话，在数据真空里完成了整个加息预期的重定价。35%到65%，30个百分点的跃升，没有一份统计报告背书。支撑它的，只有市场对“鹰派美联储”的恐惧，和交易员互相踩踏的惯性。 这就是数据真空期的真正风险：它不是“没有信息”，它是“故事取代了信息”。 而在加密市场这种高杠杆、高波动的生态里，故事替代数据的速度，Alts performed poorly this year, but internal rankings are what really matter
Ranking jumps in 2026 (Top 200) 👇
$ADI +1210 → Rank 71
$VVV +255 → Rank 74
$JLP +242 → Rank 107
$NPC +117 → Rank 192
$GRASS +57 → Rank 149
$CVX +48 → Rank 153
$ZRO +25 → Rank 110
$RAIN +24 → Rank 12
$LIT +18 → Rank 65
$ONDO +17 → Rank 44
Most projects have dropped 60-80% from their highs, and the market feels like it's dead.
But that's only half the story.
Price tells you what happened to a token's value.
Ranking tells you something different: how a project performs relative to other competitors vying for the same shrinking pool of attention and capital.
In such a bearish market, this distinction actually matters.
Do you see your conviction here?
👇Is the Bitcoin "four-year cycle" dead?
CryptoQuant's cycle momentum indicator has returned to the bullish zone.
What does this mean?
The old Bitcoin cycle might have just changed its playstyle.
In the past, it seemed completely disrupted by Wall Street, ETFs, and institutional funds.
But what the on-chain data tells you is completely different.
A crucial change happened in August:
Small wallets holding less than 100 BTC sold about 47,000 BTC in total.
Large holders with over 100 BTC actually increased their positions by about 60,000 BTC.
Large holders' lending scale rose by 18%.
The scene is retail investors selling while whales are buying.
Moreover, large holders don’t even need to sell BTC to hedge; they directly use BTC as collateral to borrow money.
Market volatility? No problem. They borrow money to allocate to other assets while keeping BTC locked in their hands.
This is the change in the market that is most easily overlooked right now.
Looking at the capital flow, ETF funds continue to flow in, and USDC is also entering the market.
But BTC is stuck around 78,000 — why is it so sluggish?
Because after a recent rise, retail investors started taking profits, and once selling pressure comes on, the price is held down.
So what’s really worth watching next isn’t those who shout bull or bear markets every day.
It’s $69,000, which is near the short-term overall cost basis of retail investors.
If it holds, the upward trend may continue to open up.
If it breaks, the market will keep consolidating.
So I actually think: the Bitcoin cycle isn’t dead; it was just previously retail investorsCurrently, BTC is oscillating in the $76K–80K range, and a very critical point is:
Despite rising oil prices, the 10-year US Treasury yield briefly hitting 4.81%, and a sharp drop in gold, BTC still has not effectively broken below 76K.
This indicates that its relative strength is actually quite good. CoinDesk also pointed out that BTC has recently basically maintained the $76K–80K range, while traditional risk assets and gold have faced more obvious pressure.
So my judgment is:
$75K = Bull-Bear lifeline
$80K = Bull market confirmation line
If:
Nonfarm payrolls are weak → 10Y yield falls → BTC breaks through 80K
Then I would believe:
🚀 "Bear market ends in July → Adjustment in August → Second wave of rise starts in September"
This logic is becoming increasingly valid.
@天才交易员绿毛 @天才少女秋秋 Turned on my phone and got bad news. Brothers, $BEAT dropped from 0.13 to 0.12 today, and it's still falling!
At this level, can you bottom-fish? No. Can you short? Also no. I advise all brothers seeing BEAT not to touch it.
Let's look at the data first. On BingX, BEAT's 24h high is 0.146, low 0.1169; on Bitget, 24h high 0.4223, low 0.2620, 24h volume 124 million BEAT; on MEXC, contract open interest is 7.609 million USDT, 24h volume 90.935 million BEAT, funding rate +0.0181%.
First, the long-short ratio is extremely skewed. Bulls account for over 90%, bears less than 10%. Retail investors overwhelmingly bullish, long-short ratio as high as 1.97x. The whales won't pump the price just to let the vast majority profit. In this structure, pumping is just carrying retail investors; whales aren't that foolish.
Second, it has dropped to 0.12, is there room to short? It started large-scale distribution above $3, crashed below 1.30 and continued collapsing to the current 0.13. Some analysts point out BEAT may drop another 30-50% before a real reversal forms; if 0.10 faces strong selling, it might test 0.08. But shorting now risks a whale reversal pump that would crush shorts, a dead end.
More importantly, on September 1, another 11.25 million BEAT will unlock. 67% of supply remains locked; monthly unlocks create structural selling pressure the market can't absorb. Some analysts predict final holders may capitulate in the 0.10-0.12 range. The historical low on November 2 was 0.067, nearly double the current space down.
Brothers stuck in losses, don't rush, just wait for sideways movement. In a year or so, it might pump back. But at this level, no bottom-fishing, no shorting, no touching is the best move.
Brothers, controlling your hands is making money.
$BTC
$ETH
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $HYPE HYPE 82.25, Multicoin is selling again.
Arkham just reported that Multicoin sold about 10% of its HYPE holdings again, now only...
Multicoin was an early investor in HYPE, with a cost probably around $10-20. Now selling at over $80, that's a 5-8x profit. From the venture capital perspective, selling at $80 is indeed reasonable. But for the market, every time it approaches the 83.7 level, it gets hammered down, and this time the dump is caused by Multicoin selling. Early investors are gradually exiting in batches, while retail investors are still hesitating whether to buy at this level. Unlocking is not over yet, selling continues, every pump attracts followers, and after unlocking, they slowly sell off. This script has played out several times with HYPE already. SAR=83.447 is pressing down, EMA21=82.294 just crossed above, EMA55=80.876 is supporting from below. The 83.7 level has been tested four times but not passed—if even Multicoin is selling, then this level definitely needs more buying power to absorb it.
Comment below, will you buy at this level or wait? 🫡LEARNED MY LESSON IN THE STORAGE CHIP TRADE ⚠️ Last time at the SanDisk seminar, I shorted from $1,200 to $1,800 and got liquidated. That mistake taught me one thing: don’t fight the trend ahead of major earnings. Now Micron ($MU) reports on September 30, and I’m looking for a better position to build longs. The storage market still looks strong, with expectations for another major earnings beat. But there are risks too—potential labor issues in Taiwan and rising HBM competition from China. My v$ARB ARB 0.129, up 30% in two days, jumping straight from 0.105 to 0.132, making those chasing the highs start to hesitate.
OpenSea has resumed support for Solana NFT trading after four years. On the day the news came out, ARB rose 28%, and today it added another 10%. SAR=0.109 is underfoot, EMA21=0.110, EMA55=0.100, all have been surpassed. RSI6=81.55, KDJ's J value is 90, indicating a short-term overbought condition. At the 0.132 level, it tried twice today but failed to hold steady; if 0.125 doesn't hold, the next support is around 0.118.
But here’s the problem—OpenSea supports Solana, so what direct connection does it have with Arbitrum? This rally seems more like a rotation rebound within the L2 sector, with short-term funds speculating on the news rather than a fundamentally driven market. ARB’s fundamentals remain the same: Arbitrum’s ecosystem, TVL, active addresses—none of these data points have shown significant changes recently. The good news is that its oversold rebound momentum is indeed stronger than most L2s.
At this point, those who missed out are starting to hesitate, and holders are considering whether to exit. Share your thoughts in the comments: do you think ARB can hold above 0.13 this time? Or is 0.132 the short-term peak? 🫡$UNI UNI 5.70, it rose and then fell back.
Dropped from 6.378 to 5.666, down 11% in two days. SAR=6.298 is pressing down from above, EMA21=5.584 is supporting from below, price is squeezed in the middle. RSI6=45.56, KDJ's J value=-4.445 — short-term it is indeed oversold, but oversold doesn't necessarily mean the decline will stop. If 5.58 doesn't hold, the next level is around 5.40.
But what’s really worth discussing today is that report — "Over 60% of Uniswap's revenue depends on MEV and LVR arbitrage activities." Uniswap earned $36 million last week, and if 60% of that comes from MEV and LVR, then Uniswap’s business model essentially relies on market volatility and the activity of arbitrage traders, rather than the growth of DEX users itself. When the market cools down, trading volume drops, MEV opportunities decrease, and Uniswap’s revenue will also plummet sharply.
The fundamentals haven’t changed, the business model is fine, but the fragility of the revenue structure is being exposed. Short-term shows oversold, mid-term shows fundamental divergence, long-term depends on the evolution of the MEV market. At this position, buyers are waiting for lower prices, sellers are waiting for a rebound to sell, both bulls and bears have their reasons.
Comment below, do you think this UNI move is a shakeout, or is there a fundamental problem? 🫡ETH price today: 2,390 Arthur Hayes year-end target: 10,000 Potential upside: +318%. You might say, "Another pump call." But Hayes doesn't make calls casually. His macro logic is being realized one step at a time! First, look at what happened in France. On September 2, the yield on France's 10-year government bonds reached 4.17%. On September 1, it was even higher, hitting 4.21% at one point. Approaching the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. France's government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to reach 118.5% in 2026 and exceed 120% in 2027. French bank stocks fell 3% to 4% in one day. The entire European bond market is collapsing. Then look at what the U.S. is doing. On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced it would at least double the scale of long-term bond buybacks—from $2 billion to $4 billion. Effective from September 9, covering bonds from 10-year to 30-year maturities. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also said, "It could exceed $4 billion." The U.S. government is personally stepping in to buy its own debt. Connecting these points—Hayes' logic is as follows: France collapses → French banks are forced to shrink repo market financing → U.S. Treasury financing costs rise → Hedge funds deleverage → New York Fed is forced to expand repo operations → The Fed accelerates its monthly balance sheet expansion to nearly $10 billion. This is a "tightening first, then easing" liquidity chain. In plain language: The more chaos in Europe, the more the U.S. Solana "Disinflation Proposal" Passed: What Does It Mean That 18.9 Million Fewer SOL Will Be Minted Over the Next 6 Years?
Solana recently completed a significant tokenomics adjustment.
SGP-0002 (Double Disinflation) has been officially approved.
The final approval vote was 67.001%, just barely surpassing the required 66.67% threshold, making it a "narrow pass." This is also one of Solana's first binding on-chain governance votes, with about 60.7% of staked tokens participating in the vote.
Many call it the "SOL disinflation proposal," but there is a common misunderstanding here:
SOL is not immediately entering true deflation; rather, the issuance rate will decline faster.
Currently, Solana's inflation mechanism is already designed to decrease annually.
The original rule was to reduce the inflation rate by about 15% each year.
After SGP-0002 passes, this rate will double to 30%. The long-term inflation target remains 1.5%, but the timeline to reach this level is significantly accelerated.
According to the proposal's calculations:
Originally, Solana would reach the 1.5% long-term inflation level around the first half of 2032.
Now it is expected to reach it around the first half of 2029.
To put it more intuitively:
Over the next 6 years, approximately 18.9 million fewer SOL will be minted.
Based on the price at the time the proposal was made, this equates to roughly $1.5 billion less potential new supply.
This is why the market is paying special attention to this vote.
Because a clear issue for SOL in the past has been:
Although the network is very active, new SOL must continuously be issued each year to pay staking rewards.
If new supply is too high, it means the market needs constant new buying pressure to absorb these tokens.
Now that issuance is slowing, it effectively reduces some long-term selling pressure from the supply side.
But this change is not without downsides.
Because much of the "newly minted SOL" actually goes as rewards to validators and stakers.
With reduced issuance, staking yields will also decline.
According to the proposal model, the nominal staking yield may drop from about 5.84% currently to approximately 4.34% in the first year, 3% in the second year, and about 2.25% in the third year.
So this reform is essentially a trade-off:
Reducing SOL's new supply while simultaneously lowering staking subsidies.
In the long run, this will make Solana more dependent on real on-chain economic activity.
Validators can no longer primarily rely on "minting SOL" for income but will need to depend more on transaction fees, MEV, Jito Tips, and other genuine network revenues.
Recently, Solana's on-chain data has been moving in this direction.
As of the end of August, Solana's seven-day average daily fees generated have approached 9,200 SOL, more than 80% higher than three months ago; Jito validator tips have recently averaged about 2,073 SOL/day.
Therefore, what truly deserves attention in this proposal is not "18.9 million fewer SOL, so the price will definitely rise."
More importantly:
Solana is gradually shifting from "subsidizing the network through token issuance" to "sustaining the network through real on-chain activity."
If Solana's transactions, DeFi, stablecoin payments, and other activities continue to grow while SOL's new supply keeps decreasing, its tokenomics model will indeed be much healthier than before.
Conversely, if staking yields fall too quickly and on-chain revenues cannot compensate, it may put pressure on smaller validators.
So SGP-0002 is not a simple "bullish proposal."
It is more like Solana betting on one thing:
That the real revenue generated by this chain in the future can gradually replace the subsidies previously provided by issuance.
If this bet pays off, the supply-demand structure of SOL could indeed undergo very significant changes in the coming years.
$SOL
#Solana通胀缩减提案获投票通过 Dell received $60.9 billion in AI server orders in one quarter but only recognized $16.4 billion in AI server revenue. Don't rush to say the latter number is too small. The $44.5 billion gap between the two precisely outlines the most valuable and also most troublesome business in the next phase of the AI boom: turning orders into machines that can actually power up in data centers. Dell announced a record $47 billion in revenue for the second fiscal quarter on September 1, a 58% year-over-year increase; AI server backlog has piled up to $95 billion. As a result, the company raised its full-year revenue guidance from $167 billion to $192 billion in one go, and its stock price surged nearly 11% the next day. The demand is certainly real, with the number of customers exceeding 6,500. But when I look at this financial report, my eyes stop at another number: the company's operating cash flow for the quarter was $2.2 billion. Between orders, revenue, and cash lie GPUs, memory, networking, cooling, construction, acceptance, and customer payments. Servers are not like downloading a software package that can be delivered the next day after receiving an order; the larger the scale, the more Dell needs to first buy parts, hold inventory, arrange the supply chain, and even help customers bridge the funding gap from signing the contract to generating the first token. Therefore, the $95 billion backlog is both a moat and a pressure gauge. It proves that demand is lined up, but it also means that delivery delays, parts price increases, and changes in customer financing will be magnified. Especially when the core GPToday's trading idea is very clear: mainly short at the rebound high, do not chase longs without volume and a firm break above 889.
$ZEC is currently consolidating around 820. Yesterday it surged to 889.20 but was pushed back, with a low retest at the 800 level. The problem is not just the candlestick but that the selling pressure in the 860-890 range hasn't been fully absorbed. The BIP-110 fork failure positive sentiment has been fully played out, funds took advantage of the surge to take profits. The 24-hour turnover is 510 million but volume growth is stagnant; ranking 6th in heat indicates retail investors are still chasing highs, while the main force is taking the opportunity to unload. MACD red bars are continuously shrinking, DIFF and DEA are flattening at a high level with signs of a death cross, RSI6 has fallen from above 70 to 58, short-term overbought correction is not yet complete. On the macro front, ADP only increased by 38,000, weaker than expected, but oil prices remain high and the probability of a rate hike in September is still above 60%, soft employment hasn't changed the hawkish pricing. The BTC market is pressured around 77,000, and ZEC has a strong correlation; when big coins weaken, altcoins find it hard to strengthen independently. In this situation, if service sector data is hot, it is easy to get smashed again.
The real variables tonight are ISM services and initial jobless claims, with non-farm payrolls on Friday. If the service sector is clearly strong (confirming inflation stickiness), ZEC could retest the MA20 at 723 or even the 700 whole number level at any time.
Current trading plan:
ZEC: short in the 845-865 range, target around 723-740.
If ZEC breaks out with volume above the previous high of 889.20, the short position is immediately invalidated; never stubbornly hold against the trend. #OKX星球话题来啦 On September 3, the crypto market is caught in a fierce tug-of-war between three major bearish factors — "62% rate hike probability + ETF capital outflow + 13% probability of CLARITY Act passage" — and three major bullish factors — "26% surge in August with bullish momentum + Ethereum ETF net inflows for 17 consecutive days + unchanged long-term institutional positioning." Bearish side: September rate hike probability soared to 62.3%, Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $236 million on its first day in September, and the probability of the CLARITY Act passing is only 13%-14% — three headwinds simultaneously suppressing the market. Bullish side: Bitcoin surged 26% in August closing the month strongly, Ethereum ETF has had net inflows for 17 consecutive days, August ETF monthly inflows hit $3.52 billion, a yearly monthly record, and Japanese listed companies are fully shifting to Bitcoin reserves — the medium- to long-term logic remains intact. $77,000 is the most critical short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. The three core events — September 11 CPI data, September 15 procedural vote on the CLARITY Act, and the September 15-16 FOMC meeting — will jointly determine the market direction in September. Where is the money going?
The funding rate today is 0.009%, while it was only 0.003-0.005% a few days ago. The long position funding rate is rising, but the price is not increasing, which means longs are effectively giving money to shorts. The net inflow of open interest (OI) is even clearer: on 9/1, 200 million came in, but on 9/2, 160 million left, and today another 100 million flowed out, a net withdrawal of 270 million USD over two days. The open interest dropped from 6 billion to 5.5 billion, shrinking 8% in a week. Longs on $ETH are cutting losses and exiting, not adding positions to buy the dip. Rising funding rates plus OI outflow = a signal of divergence at the top; chasing longs here is very poor value.
What’s the weather outside?
Last night, the Dow Jones fell 0.79%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.03%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was hammered down 2%. At Jackson Hole, Powell said "there is still work to do," pushing the probability of a September rate hike from 35% to 60%, causing panic on Wall Street. The A-shares market is shrinking volume and playing dead, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.97%, the ChiNext Index down 2.39%, and Yushu Technology halving from its IPO high. The global risk-off sentiment is palpable. However, the $BTC ETF has attracted 2.8 billion over 8 consecutive days, BlackRock's IBIT injected 200 million in a single day against the trend, showing institutions have not fled. Russia’s new crypto regulations took effect on 9/1, legitimizing $BTC, $ETH, and $USDT, opening compliant channels.Iran has started directly attacking the US military base in Kuwait, has the conflict crossed another line?
Iran recently claimed that missiles and drones have targeted the Ali Al Salem US Air Force base in Kuwait.
Kuwait's air defense system activated interceptions for the second consecutive night, and a US military-related residential area was hit by a drone and caught fire.
It is important to distinguish here: Iran claims to have hit the base and caused US military losses, but the US's preliminary assessment so far reports no casualties, and the exact damage to the base has not yet been fully confirmed.
What the market should really be wary of is the range of the attacks.
Previously, the main conflict was the US striking Iran and Iran threatening the Strait of Hormuz; now Iran is expanding its retaliation to countries hosting US troops such as Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Iraq.
This means the risk is spreading from a "war on Iranian soil" to the entire Gulf military base network.
However, crude oil prices slightly retreated today, with Brent around $95.2 and WTI around $90.8.
The reason is simple: the market is pricing in regional war risk premiums while also seeing no confirmed new large-scale US-Iran clashes in the past few hours, and Trump has said the new round of actions will not last long.
So there are now two completely different scenarios:
If Iran continues to attack US military bases, even affecting refineries, ports, and energy export facilities, the risk of oil prices breaking $100 will significantly increase, and inflation and Federal Reserve pressure will continue to transmit to BTC.
If both sides keep attacks limited to military targets and the Strait of Hormuz navigation gradually recovers! #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
$BTC A $35 billion steel procurement order lies on the table, yet the concrete hasn't even been poured. The construction party stands within the red line of a place called BeaconPoint in Texas, holding two 15-year leases—704 megawatts of capacity, with a base price close to $19.6 billion. As a designer, the first thing I notice isn't how flashy the facade is, but whether the pile foundation of this land has penetrated the aquifer.
The Anthropic building's curtain wall is Claude, so sleek it could grace a magazine cover. But when I open the structural drawings, I find the load-bearing system relies entirely on scaffolding from a third-party contractor, Lambda, whose steel structure is partly anchored on the foundation of Hut 8's old mine redevelopment site—this is like adding a super high-rise on top of a building originally designed as a warehouse, with no one having verified the load capacity of the original column grid.
True construction experts know: the most dangerous thing isn't that the building is too tall, but that the load transfer paths in the structural system are chaotic. Google's TPU is a prefabricated shear wall, Broadcom's chip financing is equivalent to on-site welded steel joints, and there are layers of nested lease guarantees—each is a load-bearing component, but have their connection nodes been structurally verified? When structural redundancy is fragmented by capital, the seismic performance of the entire building becomes highly questionable.
A 15-year lease is a relatively short cycle for a building but an unimaginably long commitment for computing equipment. GPUs have a shorter lifespan than waterproofing layers. The "design load" you mark on the drawings represents the company's cash flow for the coming decades—using variable revenue to anchor fixed lease liabilities is called "load path discontinuity" in structural engineering.
I stare at the neighboring tower on Wall Street called XPLTR, which shares the same geological layer with Anthropic. The market treats it as a linked asset, just as owners mistakenly think two buildings sharing a foundation pit means structural integration—absurd. The settlement impact of adjacent buildings is independent unless you have installed settlement joints, so don't mistake the light and shadow reflected by the curtain wall as evidence of load-bearing relationships.
Ultimately, what determines the height of this cloud skyscraper is never the renderings at the press conference, but the steel inspection records before each floor slab is poured. Right now, there isn't even an exploration report. #anthropic35bcompute🚨 $BTC RECOVERS, BUT LEVERAGE REMAINS A QUESTION
$BTC bounced back near $79K after dipping below $77K, showing that buying pressure is still defending support. However, derivative data does not fully confirm the uptrend.
Open interest dropped about 3.8%, from 331,100 BTC on 8/21 to 318,600 BTC on 8/31, while funding for Long positions increased. Price recovered but OI decreased: leverage is being reduced. Wait for confirmation instead of FOMO. #DailyOrbit This is a positive signal if the market absorbs supply without needing high leverage.