Orbit Post Sitemap
Currently in a tangled phase of "high-level oscillation + short squeeze rebound + macro suppression." BTC fluctuates repeatedly in the 78,000–79,000 range, reaching a high of 79,200 intraday on 9/1 before falling back. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated about 150–440 million USD, mainly short positions, a typical short squeeze without incremental entry.
Spot ETF inflows ended on the ninth day, with a net outflow of about 200 million USD on 8/28, and institutional buying nearly halted; 10Y US Treasury yield at 4.76%, September rate hike probability over 65%, and US stock tokenization continues to divert liquidity. ETH rebounded with BTC to around 2,470 but weaker than the broader market, altcoins lack volume.
Overall, no volume, no fresh liquidity, macro is hawkish; the rebound is seen as a downward continuation, failure to break 79–80k still points to a retest of 76k. Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $920 million, following nine consecutive trading days of inflows, resulting in a substantial cumulative scale. After a rapid rebound, daily capital inflows began to cool down.
At the same time, futures open interest calculated in coin terms dropped by about 11%, with no significant buildup of leveraged long positions. The ETF average cost is around 84k, which coincides exactly with the daily resistance zone; the closer the price gets, the greater the selling pressure. The current pattern remains a weak consolidation with rebound lacking volume, making the bearish case even stronger than last week.
BTC is struggling repeatedly around the $59,000–$60,000 range. Although it briefly reclaimed the $60,000 level on June 29, the 24h long liquidation ratio reached as high as 87.5%, and the Fear & Greed Index dropped to 16, an extreme fear zone — indicating recent volatility is due to leveraged longs being liquidated, not shorts being squeezed. The real killer is on the capital side: the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $4.06 billion in June, setting a monthly record since listing. On June 26 alone, IBIT redeemed $444.5 million, and reports at the end of August showed net outflows for seven consecutive trading days. Institutions are voting with their feet; the spot demand indicator has been negative for 208 consecutive days.
On the macro front, the Fed's hawkish expectations are suppressing risk assets, with capital clearly rotating into AI and semiconductor stocks — BTC did not follow the rebound in US stocks, indicating the crypto sector has been downgraded in this round of risk asset ranking. Technically, Supertrend resistance is near $66,100, Aroon downward momentum still dominates, and liquidation sell orders are densely placed in the $61,000–$61,800 range.
ETH and BTC are diverging: some order flow shows smart money accumulating BTC, while ETH is still being actively distributed, so ETH cannot simply follow BTC's ups and downs. Overall, without ETF inflows and incremental spot buying, any rebound is just a downtrend continuation. Once $58,000 is broken, the next target is the $55,000–$58,000 range. A day in the crypto world is more thrilling than a Hollywood blockbuster.
Last night, BTC repeatedly hovered around the $80,000 mark but still couldn't break through. As of September 1st, the price settled near $78,770 and entered defense mode. Why can't it push through this final hurdle? Because fireworks have started again in the Middle East, and this time Trump's anger is bigger than missiles.
1. Iran launched a missile strike on a US military base, which traditional finance sees as a risk-off alarm. Although we always hype BTC as digital gold, when missiles are flying and the situation is unclear, big money's first reaction is often to hold cash (USD) and wait. The psychological high of $80,000 feels especially heavy amid the gunfire.
2. Trump is shouting about striking Iran hard while boasting on Fox News that US GDP growth will hit 20%, and the Fed is not allowed to raise interest rates.
* 20% growth but no rate hikes? This logic is basically like revving an engine to the max but not allowing any oil.
* Trump is blatantly pressuring the Fed. As long as he forbids rate hikes, even if inflation soars, it's a long-term liquidity boost for the crypto market.
* As long as the $80,000 level isn't reclaimed, combined with geopolitical uncertainty, the main players will likely tug the price back and forth between $76,500 and $79,500, shaking out impatient bulls.
* Trump's slogan of strong growth and low interest rates essentially overdrafts credit. Once the war stabilizes a bit📊 $CORE Contract Liquidation Express (September 1)
Data anomaly: Short position liquidations from 1 to 24 hours remain at zero, longs completely dominate but total volume is only $1,532, indicating extremely low liquidity and invalid market conditions...
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $234.41 $234.41 $0
4 hours $1,532.21 $1,532.21 $0
12 hours $1,532.21 $1,532.21 $0
24 hours $1,532.21 $1,532.21 $0
Short position liquidations from 1 to 24 hours remain zero, longs fully monopolize, but total volume is only $1,532. Data anomaly or almost no market activity, representing extremely low liquidity and invalid market conditions, with no directional reference value. Leverage is recommended to be compressed to within 3x; this token has very poor liquidity and is not suitable for trading.
🔥 Market Indicator | September 1
Three hot topics today point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish tone is about to face the ultimate test from employment data; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under the "fiat credit revaluation"; and Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns.
📊 Nonfarm payrolls debut this Friday: Can Wash's "hawk" withstand the "blade" of data?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm payroll report will be released. The market expects new jobs of 58,000-65,000, previous value was -23,000; unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%.
Just last week, Federal Reserve Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating inflation is still "too high" and "there is still work to do." The market quickly pushed the probability of a September rate hike to 60%. However, nonfarm payrolls have been weak for three consecutive times—if this week's data weakens again, Wash's hawkish stance will face a severe test. Goldman Sachs expects August core CPI month-on-month increase around 0.2%, suggesting the FOMC will hold steady; while JPMorgan emphasizes that the "more important news" deciding the September meeting outcome is this week's nonfarm and next week's CPI.
₿ BTC high-level oscillation: gold linkage continues to strengthen, rate hike expectations pressure
Bitcoin rose 28% cumulatively in August, once breaking through $81,000, but fell back under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $78,000-$79,000; spot gold is also under pressure, briefly dropping below $4,450 during the session.
The core logic driving the previous synchronous strength is "fiat credit revaluation"—in the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs have attracted a record $7 billion inflow combined. But after Wash's speech, Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows again, and a stronger dollar suppressed gold and Bitcoin. Rising rate hike expectations are short-term suppressing the upward momentum of "non-government credit assets"—but if this week's nonfarm data is weak, rate hike expectations may quickly collapse, and Bitcoin and gold could resume their upward trend.
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell take over: AI hardware returns face re-examination
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. The market expects total revenue around $29.4 billion, up 84% year-on-year; AI semiconductor revenue is expected to reach $16 billion, with growth exceeding 200% year-on-year. JPMorgan expects full-year AI revenue in 2026 to exceed $56 billion.
Dell will release Q2 earnings after market close on September 1. The company has $51.3 billion in AI server backlog orders, with quarterly AI orders of $24.4 billion; AI server revenue is expected to be about $15.5 billion. But profit margin pressure is notable—AI servers typically have low margins, and the market will focus on whether the Infrastructure Solutions Group can improve its margin from 10.5%.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the same picture: this Friday's nonfarm payrolls will test Wash's hawkish claim of "still work to do"—if employment weakens again, the 60% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation" but are short-term pressured by rate hike expectations; Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns, with margin pressure becoming a new focus. CORE contract data is abnormal, with only $1,532 total liquidation for the whole day, representing extremely low liquidity and invalid market conditions, sharply contrasting with the massive funds in the three main themes—capital is accelerating concentration into leading assets. As employment data, macro narratives, and AI earnings converge in the same week—the market awaits the final answer on September 4. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Robinhood Chain appears to be building tokenized US stocks infrastructure, but in reality, veteran on-chain players have turned it into a new casino
▶️ What you buy isn’t US stocks, but chips
No one holds on-chain US stocks long-term to bear contract risks; traders only treat $NVDA and $TSLA as hard currency. Pons directly settles with $NVDA, and NFTs also serve as a combined treasury of US stocks. US stocks on-chain have been reduced to Meme market-making tools and leverage collateral
▶️ Nearly $500 million TVL arbitrage game
Morpho’s nearly $500 million locked assets seem prosperous but are actually unrelated to the US stock ecosystem. Mostly, whales borrow Robinhood’s endorsement, deposit $USDG to earn about 7% risk-free interest from the Steakhouse treasury. US stock token lending is still in the experimental phase
▶️ The covert AI debit protocol
Besides GMGN and FOMO competing for order flow, the official secret layout of Agentic Credit Card and Banking MCP is the real killer move. Retail investors won’t trade fractional shares frequently, but future AI Agents will need to allocate US stocks and crypto assets across borders 24/7, paving the way for machine trading
✍️ Future outlook predictions
Zeroing wave: Hot money retreats, local dogs relying on US stock concepts will zero out in batches, and Pons’ high fees are hard to sustain
Regulatory liquidation: Using Meme transaction tax to automatically buy stock dividends risks triggering SEC unregistered securities red lines, and officials will intervene to impose restrictions
Real turning point: Whether US stock tokenization can succeed depends on whether AI arbitrage can work. Only after AI agents truly integrate will capital stayAnother thing was overshadowed by the market today: the digital ruble has officially launched on a large scale in Russia.
The largest banks and retail enterprises must start implementing the digital ruble infrastructure from September 1. Ordinary people can open a central bank digital wallet in their bank app, with a monthly top-up limit of 300,000 rubles per person, and all transfers are free.
There is a subtle detail: each person can only have one digital ruble account. Russian experts frankly said that the biggest early beneficiaries are not the general public, but the state. Budget allocations and subsidy distributions, where the money goes and how it is spent, are all clearly recorded in the ledger.
Sberbank of Russia also predicts that the legal crypto transaction volume in Russia could reach $460 billion in the first year.
On one hand, the central bank's own currency is launched; on the other, private crypto trading is legalized and taxed. Walking on two legs, they clearly know which is the main and which is the auxiliary.#Employment data released intensively, Wash's policy stance under scrutiny
This week, JOLTS, ADP, initial claims, and nonfarm payrolls will be released consecutively
I've circled the calendar three times, more seriously than watching K-lines
July nonfarm payrolls have already decreased by 23,000
May and June were revised down by a total of 103,000
The hiring trend is dropping steadily, not just a small fluctuation to scare you
Wash Jackson Hole again pinned inflation above 2%
Said financial conditions are not tight enough yet
Right after the speech, the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from about 35% to nearly 60%
BTC is trembling around 78,695 now
Gold hasn't dared to run much either
Everyone is waiting for the same needle
So my judgment is, this week's data is the directional switch, people oscillating around 78K will suffer a lot
$BTC #NonfarmThe market today is actually quite stable, with $ETH oscillating back and forth within the narrow range of 2455-2480. The lows have been gradually rising, showing no intention to dip further. This pattern indicates that the underlying support is solid, not fake.
On-chain, a whale is offloading — 167,855 ETH, worth about $408 million. Over the past 48 hours, more than 70,000 ETH have been dumped onto exchanges, with over 90,000 still left to sell. With $400 million worth being sold off, yet ETH still firmly holding above 2470, honestly, that’s pretty strong.
On the other hand, the Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of $87.67 million yesterday, marking 11 consecutive days of net inflows. BlackRock’s ETHA had a single-day net inflow of $59.93 million. Bitmine continues to buy steadily, uninterrupted for 65 weeks. While the whale is selling, ETFs and institutions are absorbing — a clear tug of war, but the price hasn’t dropped, indicating stronger buying pressure.
On the news front, the scope of the Hegota upgrade has been finalized, with EIP-8141 status moving from “Under Consideration” to “Scheduled.” This is the biggest upgrade since the Merge, with more narratives to come.
My judgment: The whale selling pressure remains, so ETH will likely consolidate a bit more in the short term. But with continuous ETF inflows + Bitmine’s steady accumulation + Hegota upgrade expectations, the support is very solid. This pattern means dips are buying opportunities.
Specific levels: Buy on dips at 2450-2455, stop loss at 2410, target 2500-2520, and watch for volume to push towards 2550. TRX's recent trend has been relatively stable, continuing its characteristics of low volatility and strong defensive attributes. Unlike most public chain coins that rely on narrative-driven momentum, TRON's support mainly comes from stablecoin transfers, on-chain activity, and fee consumption, which makes it easier to attract capital attention during fluctuating market sentiment. Currently, the pursuit of highly elastic altcoins is not sustained, and assets like TRX, which are more driven by cash flow and usage demand logic, show certain resilience. Going forward, focus should be on the scale of stablecoins, on-chain transaction activity, and whether the overall market risk appetite improves. $TRXCapital inflow does not necessarily mean a market reversal.
Recently, the market has been abuzz with talk of billions of dollars flowing into ETH, with many seeing it as a sign of recovery. But on closer inspection, this is more likely just institutional portfolio rebalancing rather than a return of incremental confidence.
Last week's capital data was indeed impressive: BTC net inflow of $924 million, ETH $824 million, with SOL and XRP also hitting their highest weekly records of the year. However, the market did not respond in kind—ETH continued to trade sideways, SOL showed mild movement, and the direction remained unclear.
On August 28, BTC saw a single-day net outflow of $200 million, dousing bulls with cold water. Although some analyses suggest that single-day fluctuations should not be overinterpreted and that mid-to-long-term logic remains intact, the emotional disturbance has already occurred.
Undeniably, real money is circulating in the market, but this round of funds is mostly circulating among institutions, engaging in arbitrage, hedging, and turnover games, making it difficult for ordinary investors to share in incremental gains. Many focus on net inflow numbers with high hopes but overlook the signals given by the price itself—if the market cannot substantially move up, no matter how good the data looks, it is just an illusion.
When capital flow and price trends continue to diverge, the so-called "positive" data should be taken with a grain of salt.
$BTC $ZORA $ETH
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Charles Schwab adds SOL, AVAX, and LINK; the key point is not just that three more coins are added, but that alt assets are being pushed into regular investment accounts
This will change the way questions are asked. On exchanges, people ask if there is a narrative today or if there is a pump; in traditional brokerages, investors compare them on the same interface with stocks, ETFs, and bonds. SOL needs its use case explained, AVAX needs its network value explained, and LINK needs to explain why the data layer can charge fees long-term
Being noticed by Charles Schwab is a ticket, not a diploma
I actually think this is harsher for the projects. The crypto circle can run on jargon and sentiment for a long time, but in front of traditional capital, every "ecosystem prosperity" must ultimately be translated into usage, revenue, and risk
#嘉信理财拟新增SOL、AVAX与LINK 🚨BREAKING NEWS
This week is not a holiday. This is the NFP warm-up
Tuesday: PMI + JOLTS.
Wednesday: ADP 45k vs 44k, Beige Book.
Thursday: claims 206k, Waller, ISM services.
Strong ADP + claims down = Fed tightens, $BTC vulnerable to pullback. Weak ADP = rate cut narrative alive.
Don't guess 1 digit. Thursday claims often leak Friday's direction. Small size. Don't 12x.
DYOR. Not a signal.
#BTC #NFP #OrbitOKXATOM is showing a recovery move today; the established cross-chain narrative still holds recognition in market rotation. The highlights of Cosmos have always been IBC, application chains, and inter-chain collaboration, but whether the token value capture mechanism can be re-recognized by the market is the key to affecting long-term attention. This wave now seems more like a capital return to low-position old coins amid mainstream coin volatility, rather than being purely driven by strong catalysts. Recent changes in macro and ETF capital flows have made market risk appetite cautious. For ATOM to sustain a more continuous trend, it needs to see new information supporting ecosystem data, application activity, or governance aspects. $ATOMStrategy just resumed Bitcoin buying after a 10-week pause. 👀
Between Aug. 24–30, Strategy reportedly added 4,603 BTC for $369.7M, averaging $80,318 per coin.
The interesting part isn't simply the purchase — it's the financing model behind it. When MSTR trades at a strong premium, issuing shares can provide capital to acquire BTC. When that premium weakens, the economics of raising capital become less attractive.#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults $OKB trading volume, 5.66 million, I checked OKX and almost thought the data was missing a zero.
High at 112, low at 110, just a 2-point fluctuation in 24 hours. To put it nicely, it's stable; to put it harshly, no one is trading it. SOL's trading volume is 90.16 million, also sideways, but at least the market is still willing to mess with it. Now some people are starting to say "OKB is done," and I've heard that so many times it’s like my ears have calluses.
I won’t defend it blindly. $OKB has indeed been quiet recently, with pitifully low trading volume and a price as stagnant as dead water. Why is that? Simply put, platform tokens follow this rhythm: they don’t rely on hype to pump, nor on stories to survive. The current market hotspots are memes and on-chain gold dogs; funds are chasing things that double in a day. Who has the patience to stick with this? SOL’s large volume is because its chain is lively, with new projects and stories every day, and frequent capital flows. OKB doesn’t have that; it relies on real income from the OKX ecosystem, buybacks and burns, Launchpad, fee deductions—these aren’t gimmicks you can hype every day.
So why do I keep holding? Because I’ve seen this cycle too many times. Every time OKB’s volume shrinks to the extreme and the criticism is loudest, it’s often close to a turning point. Platform tokens aren’t afraid of sideways movement; they fear the platform doing nothing. OKX has been launching new things and doing buybacks as it should; the fundamentals aren’t broken, it’s just the market ignoring it temporarily. I won’t cut losses just because volume is low, nor doubt it because of others’ criticism. I’ll keep my base position; as long as 110 holds, I’ll hold. I also have trapped positions in $SOL, but I don’t plan to touch them short-term. Big volume doesn’t help if the price doesn’t rise; all the hype doesn’t make money.
Simply put, not every coin in the market needs to have daily action. OKB is the type that "if you don’t watch it, it slowly surprises you." I’ll keep waiting for the day it breaks out with volume.Wash's one sentence wiped out 4000 points, US military fires and BTC bows again—September starts, the market is still digesting double shocks
Hello brothers, the first day of September, the market is calmer than expected, but the story of the past week is enough to write a chapter.
BTC is currently reported in the $78,500-79,000 range, with a slight 1% rebound in 24 hours. ETH stands above $2,460, SOL returns near $103. From above 81,000 on August 26 to below 77,000 on August 31, then slowly climbing back to 78,500 today—these five days, the market experienced a complete "rally-crash-recovery" cycle.
And the tool for the crash was Wash's one sentence.
Wash's "there is still work to do" is worth 4000 points
At 10 PM on August 28, at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Wash delivered a speech titled "The Era We Are In." This was his first appearance at Jackson Hole since taking office in May, and the market had waited a whole year.
His core argument was: PCE inflation year-on-year is about 3.7%, six-month annualized about 4.1%, far above the 2% target; the US economy remains strong, corporate capital expenditure year-on-year growth is about 9%, the highest since 2021; financial conditions, in his view, are "not restrictive."
Former Fed Vice Chair Brainard commented that this is no longer a Fed that hikes rates "only if data proves necessary," but a Fed that defaults to further hikes "unless data opposes." This logic reversal makes the market more nervous than the rate hikes themselves.
After Wash's speech, the CME FedWatch tool showed the probability of a September rate hike surged from 35% to 60%. BTC plunged directly from above 81,000, dropping more than 4,000 dollars in three days.
US-Iran conflict adds another blow
Just as the market had not yet digested Wash's hawkish signal, geopolitics delivered another heavy punch.
The US Central Command launched airstrikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil rose over 3% in response, breaking above $90 per barrel. BTC briefly fell below 77,000 after the news, with over $200 million long positions liquidated within an hour. More than 100,000 people were liquidated globally within 24 hours, with total liquidations reaching $421 million.
Geopolitical conflict pushes oil prices up → inflation expectations rebound → rate hike probability rises further, this chain is still ongoing.
But BTC didn't collapse, indicating someone is buying the dip
Interestingly, although the news was all bearish, BTC ultimately stabilized near 77,000. The weekend's low-volume decline and absence of panic selling indicate bulls have not given up. US stocks are falling, oil prices are rising, but BTC is sideways at $78,000.
ETF data also supports this judgment. From August 17 to 27, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, totaling about $3.04 billion. August's monthly net inflow exceeded $3 billion. The highest single-day inflow was $606.3 million. Institutions haven't fled; they're just adjusting positions.
How will September go? Two variables determine the direction
The biggest uncertainty is the Federal Reserve meeting on September 15-16. If the inflation data released in September remains moderate, rate hike pressure can be temporarily eased. If data remains high, the 60% rate hike probability may become reality.
Tom Lee's view is: if the Fed holds rates steady in September, crypto assets (especially ETH) will likely trigger FOMO before the end of the year. CryptoSlate's September forecast model shows a median price estimate of $81,319.
Current position
BTC is in the $78,500-79,000 range, right between support and resistance. The resistance zone is $79,500-80,000 above, and the support zone is $77,000-77,500 below. Before the direction emerges, watching more and trading less is best.
This is not panic, but correction. Wash's speech is important, but if there really is a rate hike in September, the market has already been digesting it in advance. Once emotions are released, what should come back will come back.
Brothers, did you get swept in this wave? Let's chat in the comments👇#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $BTC $ETH Long and Short Crowding List
Crowding is not about being bullish or bearish, the key is which side has higher costs and the price still can't move.
$0G Current rate -0.2469%, settled -1.278% in the past 24 hours, at the 1% percentile of recent samples. Price is going up, positions are also increasing, short-term funds are expanding risk exposure. During the short position fee period, the price and positions move upward, new positions have not suppressed the price, continue to watch if the high point can be lifted.
$ZORA Current rate -0.0616%, settled -3.189% in the past 24 hours, at the 15% percentile of recent samples. Expanding positions while falling, selling pressure is supported by new positions, but open interest alone cannot confirm the short position direction. Short position costs are relatively high but the price still cooperates, the structure is not yet broken, a stop in the decline will be the first warning.
$USELESS Current rate -0.0506%, settled -0.128% in the past 24 hours, at the 1% percentile of recent samples. Open interest increases synchronously when the price falls, this phase is not simply deleveraging, position ownership still needs transaction verification. Increasing positions on the decline have absorbed deep negative fees, the direction is temporarily effective; when open interest continues to rise but the price stops, beware of crowding backlash. September historically hasn't been a particularly comfortable month for Bitcoin.
Since 2013, in 13 September market cycles, 8 ended down and 5 ended up, with an average return of about -3.08%.
Of course, historical data is never a forecasting tool.
But it at least indicates one thing:
A good August doesn't necessarily mean September will continue the trend.
Especially now that the market is trading rate cut expectations, and sentiment isn't exactly low.
So at this stage, I'm actually more willing to stay a bit cautious.
The biggest mistake during good market conditions is:
Taking the smooth ride of the previous cycle as the script for the next one.
No one knows how September will go.
But being aware of risks can never be wrong. #btcLiquidity conditions are quietly improving as Treasury buybacks help ease pressure in parts of the bond market. At the same time, institutions keep accumulating: 🟠 Spot $BTC ETFs: ~$1.9B weekly inflows 🔵 $ETH products: ~$816M weekly inflows $BTC is holding near $78K, but $ETH is showing even stronger relative demand. This doesn't look like capital leaving crypto. It looks like capital rotating within it. 👀 #BTC #ETH #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults#Employment data released intensively, Powell's policy stance under scrutiny
My mid-term logic is like watching this week's employment data as if it's an exam paper—Powell just slammed the table at Jackson Hole: inflation hasn't truly returned to 2%, as long as employment doesn't collapse, the rate hike sword remains hanging overhead.
The old lazy formula "weak employment = rate cuts" has been dismantled by him. In his current framework, unless employment deteriorates to the point where the unemployment rate spikes to 4.2% and nonfarm payrolls turn negative, rate hikes won't be stopped; instead, ISM service prices and weekly initial jobless claims are the real triggers.
Before this week's nonfarm payrolls, there are ADP, JOLTS, and initial claims setting the stage. As long as the numbers don't plummet, Powell's rhetoric of "there's still work to do" holds, the odds of a September rate hike won't drop, US Treasuries and the dollar stay strong, while gold and tech get hit. For a real reversal, employment must truly collapse.
Mid-term guy's one sentence: don't read the old script, this old man doesn't look at appearances but at the scale, data speaks, let's adjust our positions accordingly!
Currently $BTC and $ETH continue to oscillate around 78000 and 2450 respectively, this week will most likely reveal the direction! $SOL After two months, Strategy has finally started buying back Bitcoin again. According to reports, this time they bought about 4,603 BTC at an average price of $80,318, with a total cost of approximately $369.7M. Buy low, sell high, brothers, if you get it, applause 🤡
Alright, no more jokes. Actually, the real state of treasury companies is never one-sided. They need to buy coins to establish BTC exposure per share, and also need to sell coins to raise cash, support preferred stock, repurchase shares, pay dividends, and handle financing windows. The kind of never-sell approach Saylor had before is actually unhealthy and unscientific.
So looking on the bright side, Strategy's recent buyback shows the company still believes BTC is a core asset. It also proves it’s no longer a single-threaded machine that only issues $MSTR and buys $BTC, but rather a multi-pronged approach combining BTC + stock premium + preferred stock dividends + cash management #Strategy与BitMine同步增持 Just after the Jackson Hole speech by Waugh, the employment data this week will intensively test him.
He believes that the 4.1% unemployment rate is close to full employment, financial conditions are not tight, and inflation is the primary issue. A slight improvement in summer data does not mean the trend has improved. The market has directly raised the probability of a rate hike in September to 50-60%.
July's non-farm payrolls already showed negative growth, and August is expected to rebound to around 50,000. If the actual data continues to be weak, will his logic of "no employment problem, the problem is inflation" be contradicted by the data, or will he continue to explain it with demographic structure?
For crypto, the key is not the strength of a single number, but how interest rate expectations are repriced. Risk assets are now clearly more sensitive to this line. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $BTC Oil prices have risen due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, U.S. stock futures have weakened, and interest rate trading has also started to lean toward tighter conditions. For the crypto market, this combination is usually troublesome. Rising oil prices disrupt inflation expectations; if inflation doesn't come down, monetary policy will struggle to quickly shift to easing, and capital will naturally reduce high-volatility positions first.
BTC is still hovering around $78,000, with no expected sell-off occurring. It closed near $62,900 at the end of July, and now the increase has exceeded 24%. This rise has withstood an external stress test. I tend to see this as bulls still having confidence rather than the market being safe.
Next, the market will focus on around $80,000. This is close to the 50-week moving average, roughly at $81,000. It acts like a cycle temperature line; once it holds, capital will be more willing to treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. If it repeatedly fails to break through, early profit-takers are likely to see this as an exit zone.
On the chart, around $77,000 is a short-term defense level. If the price stays above here, there is still a chance to test $79,000 to $80,000 again. If support fails, $75,500 and $74,300 may come into view sequentially.
The range from $82,000 to $83,000 will determine whether this rally can move from a recovery phase to a stronger trend segment.
The most interesting thing about BTC right now is that it hasn't immediately bowed under macro pressure. Bulls holding $80,000 is the prerequisite to talk about higher levels $BTC
(This is only a personal market record and does not constitute investment advice)Strategy just resumed Bitcoin buying after a 10-week pause. 👀
Between Aug. 24–30, Strategy reportedly added 4,603 BTC for $369.7M, averaging $80,318 per coin.
The interesting part isn't simply the purchase — it's the financing model behind it. When MSTR trades at a strong premium, issuing shares can provide capital to acquire BTC. When that premium weakens, the economics of raising capital become less attractive.
$BTC #BTCGoldCorrelation The most interesting point in the market right now:
It's not that no one is buying,
but that the buy and sell sides are in a game of tug-of-war.
On one side, institutions are continuously accumulating.
BlackRock's IBIT has recently been steadily increasing its BTC holdings, having bought tens of thousands of bitcoins in the short term, indicating that traditional capital still has allocation demand at this level.
At the same time, the long-standing redemption pressure on GBTC is gradually easing.
This means one of the biggest sources of selling pressure in the market is slowly weakening.
But don't rush to shout "taking off immediately."
The market never rises immediately just because funds come in.
Institutional buying is more about medium- to long-term asset allocation; they are looking at the value years from now, not a big bullish candle today.
In the short term, what really determines the price is still liquidity and market sentiment.
Currently, BTC inventory on exchanges remains high, and some chips could turn into selling pressure at any time.
Also, although the Fear and Greed Index has fallen from a high level, it is still in the greed zone.
This shows market sentiment hasn't cooled off; momentum-chasing funds are still in the market.
Many people see ETF net inflows and assume the next stop is a new high.
But the most dangerous time in a bull market is often when everyone is unanimously bullish.
The current market looks more like:
Institutional funds supporting the bottom,
Profit-taking chips suppressing the top.
Want a big drop? There's not enough bad news;
Want a surge? There's no new incremental funds to take over.
So, in the short term, it's most likely to remain a consolidation and shakeout.
Repeated spikes,
Clearing leverage,
Digesting floating chips.
A truly healthy rise is never when everyone is making money, but when weak hands' chips are passed to more determined holders through continuous fluctuations.
Spot trading should continue to focus on core assets:
$BTC
$ETH
$OKB
Don't let short-term volatility disrupt your rhythm.
For contract trading, control your position size even more; with long and short forces balanced now, heavy bets on direction can easily make you a target for market harvesting.
Be patient and wait for trend selection; opportunities always belong to those with bullets and discipline. Wall Street is trying to truly measure crypto as a complete asset class. On August 31, CME Group and CF Benchmarks officially launched two multi-asset crypto indices: CME CF Crypto Market Index CME CF Emerging Crypto Index. The former covers a broader range of mainstream digital assets, while the latter is more interesting—directly excluding $BTC and $ETH, tracking only 10 eligible large emerging crypto assets. Both indices use free-float market cap weighting, with real-time versions updated about once every second and calculated continuously throughout the year. What is truly worth watching is not "Crypto has two more indices." But why CME specifically created a version that excludes BTC and ETH. 1. Wall Street has started to measure "markets other than BTC and ETH" separately. In the past, when institutions discussed crypto, they often essentially talked about BTC and ETH. BTC stands for digital gold, ETH stands for smart contracts and on-chain ecosystems, and the large number of altcoins left behind are often seen as a large group of assets with high volatility, high risk, and difficulty in pricing uniformly. But this time, CME did something interesting: removing BTC and ETH, and then establishing an institutional-level benchmark specifically for the remaining crypto market. In other words, Wall Street is seriously answering a question that didn't exist beforeAI earnings continue: Dell reports Sep 1, followed by Broadcom and Snowflake on Sep 2. Hardware will test whether custom AI chips, networking and server orders sustain growth, profit and cash flow. Software will show whether cloud-data demand creates steadier subscription and usage revenue. Nvidia validated compute demand; focus now is whether AI spending spreads from chips into servers, networking and enterprise software, supporting broader tech valuations. Share your view under this topic.Is a big explosion coming in September $BTC
Wash has already left a backdoor for himself. What he emphasized at Jackson Hole in the end was a “commitment to a discipline, not to a decision.” I only promise you “I follow the rules,” but I will never guarantee in advance “the next meeting will definitely cut rates, and by how much.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 📰 【The crypto-stock meme coin Artificial Inu has become the actual "platform coin" of Long.xyz, with the former's market cap briefly nearing $200 million to hit a new high】
According to BlockBeats, on September 1, per GMGN market data, the crypto-stock meme coin Artificial Inu (AI) briefly reached a market cap close to $200 million today, setting a new high, currently reported at $167 million, with a 24-hour increase of 96.06%. Artificial Inu is issued through the Robinhood chain issuance platform Long.xyz, paired with Nvidia stock. Long.xyz has repeatedly posted on its official Twitter about using platform fees to repurchase Artificial Inu tokens. Today, Long.xyz announced the launch of LongX Expansion. The new feature will Li...
So all the Nvidia concepts and crypto-stock betting are just a facade; Long.xyz repurchases AI daily with transaction fees, effectively making it a core platform asset. The market cap rose to $200 million then fell back, indicating that investors buy into the repurchase narrative and short-term hype, but this kind of market driven by forced platform buybacks will fall quickly once the repurchase pace slows. Are there any friends in the comments who are on board or actively called this wave? Share your current position strategies?
$BTC $ETH $XAG $BZ
🛢️Crude Oil Projection for the Next Decade (For logical sharing only, not investment advice)
Mainstream baseline scenario: No prolonged decade-long bull market, but rather a large range-bound oscillation.
2026‑2028: Brent price center at $70‑85, new capacity released in concentration;
2029‑2033: Earlier underinvestment becomes apparent, center rises to $80‑95, frequent geopolitical pulses causing spikes;
2034‑2036: Energy transition pressures gradually emerge, center slightly falls to $75‑90.
Optimistic scenario reaches $90‑110 mid-period, pessimistic center drops to $60‑75.
Key factors to watch: oil company capital expenditures, shale oil elasticity, OPEC+ policies, electric vehicle penetration, emerging market oil demand.⚠️Not investment advice
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $BTC family, this September, the US stock market might be about to change dramatically!
Federal Reserve Chair Powell just dropped a hard line at Jackson Hole: inflation remains the number one enemy, and the interest rate path will no longer be pre-committed. The market immediately broke out in a cold sweat — the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 35% to 57%, the 2-year US Treasury yield surged over 10 basis points in a single day, and gold prices plummeted about 3%. This wave of "hawkish signals" came too fiercely, coinciding exactly with the US stock market's most notorious "September curse."
What curse? Since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged a loss of 1.17% in September, making it the only month with a long-term negative return, with a roughly 56% chance of decline. The S&P just rose about 3% in August, hitting new highs repeatedly; this kind of "last gasp" performance perfectly matches the statistical conditions prone to weakening. Even more troublesome, this year is a midterm election year, and in the second year of a presidential term, the S&P has fallen 6 out of the past 10 Septembers, with an average drop of about 2%.
The risk is not recession, but being too strong. Inflation is still at 3.7%, employment and earnings are robust, and the Fed has no reason to cut rates. High valuations and full positions combined with an underpriced rate hike can trigger violent repricing in minutes.
So, defense first in September: high dividend, utilities, energy, banks, and gold are more stable; high valuation tech stocks and discretionary consumption should be pressed down. But don’t panic, historical data shows that in the 12 months after midterm elections, the S&P has risen 19 times with an average gain of 31.7%. The panic-clearing months of September and October often mark the start of the next rally. If you get through these most dangerous 30 days, it might be a field of gold again. #美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元
Shipping in the Persian Gulf is obstructed, Brent crude oil has reached the $90 mark, and inflation concerns are resurfacing. Market price $BTC 78029.
Market consensus
Some funds worry that rising oil prices will push up inflation, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to ease policies, thus suppressing risk assets; others see $BTC as an alternative safe haven amid geopolitical turmoil.
Underlying logic analysis
Geopolitical events themselves do not directly determine cryptocurrency prices. The real chain is: oil price rise → inflation expectations rebound → interest rate expectation changes → liquidity tightening or easing, which eventually affects the crypto market, likely increasing volatility.
Personal view (I personally lean towards a gradual return of the bull market, this is just my personal opinion and not investment advice)
The situation brings uncertainty, so avoid aggressive positions, manage your holdings well, and patiently observe macro changes. Liquidity Undercurrents Surge: ETF Fund Flows Reveal New Rotation Signals
The U.S. Treasury's repurchase operations are quietly repairing the microstructure of the bond market. Although not quantitative easing, this provides breathing room for risk assets to maneuver. The market has not seen a "flood of liquidity," but funds have begun to reprice.
On-chain data and capital flows form a cross-validation: spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed nearly $1.9 billion in a single week, and Ethereum investment products also netted $816 million inflows. Interestingly, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has recently strengthened, not simply due to short squeezes—on-chain activity, staking yields, and ecosystem expectations are attracting incremental capital for targeted positioning.
The price trajectory is becoming clearer: liquidity expectations improve first anchoring Bitcoin, then funds diffuse to Ethereum, and finally transmit along the risk curve to altcoin sectors. If this transmission chain continues, it means the market is shifting from "risk-averse clustering" to "tiered rotation." Going forward, close attention is needed on the persistence of ETH's relative strength and whether the inflow slope of stablecoins expands synchronously.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 On-chain data has been quite interesting these days. The whales on Hyperliquid aren't running away; instead, they're locking tokens into the staking pool.
Onchain Lens tracked a previously dormant whale transferring over 1 million $HYPE to staking, worth about 61.2 million USD at the current price. Lookonchain also pointed out a group of 19 wallets suspected to belong to the same entity, cumulatively staking about 2.93 million $HYPE, valued at approximately 172 million USD.
Staking removes coins from circulation, naturally reducing selling pressure. But on the other hand, spot ETFs have seen net outflows for about two consecutive weeks, with money withdrawing from fund products.
Two opposing forces are at play. $HYPE is currently priced around 84 USD, up about 5% in 24 hours, just hitting a new high. Some are locking tokens as long-term holders, while others are pulling out from products; the market is never unified.$KO Super strong El Niño catalyzes! Food sector triggers another surge in limit-ups, planting chain prosperity impacts Coca-Cola
The expectation of a super strong El Niño heats up, leading the food planting sector to a wave of limit-ups, with the sugar planting chain becoming the main focus of capital. Extreme weather disrupts global crop supply, and this climate narrative also transmits to downstream consumer targets like $KO Coca-Cola.
El Niño has a dual impact: high temperatures stimulate cold drink consumption, benefiting Coca-Cola's end sales; however, the main sugarcane producing areas face drought threats, with the market pricing in reduced sugarcane output, putting upward pressure on raw sugar prices and raising corporate raw material costs. Nevertheless, Coca-Cola relies on long-term locked-price procurement contracts, combined with brand premium-driven pricing power, which can hedge part of the sugar price volatility.
The market has retreated from its high point for a week, with trading volume shrinking from 17.13 million shares to 9.89 million shares, selling pressure easing, RSI falling back to the neutral zone around 50, showing signs of volume contraction and price stabilization. Q2 revenue and profit grew double digits, but the 26.8x P/E ratio is relatively high, coupled with Latin American sugar taxes, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have target price differences of $16, indicating clear divergence between bulls and bears.
Current price forms a fragile balance between $88 and $90. A volume breakout above $90 would activate sentiment and could challenge $95; a volume breakdown below the $88 20-day moving average would break the defensive structure and may test $86.
It is necessary to distinguish between thematic expectations and performance realization. The planting chain speculation is based on production cut forecasts; El Niño is a medium- to long-term catalyst and will not directly drive a one-sided rise in KO. The market must wait for volume confirmation of a breakout. The theme is for reference only and should not be used directly as a basis for opening positions; proper position management is advised. This week's data is the real judge. ADP on Wednesday, Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday, plus JOLTS and initial jobless claims, four employment reports clustered together, directly deciding whether to raise rates in September.
Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to add 58,000 to 80,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding near 4.1%. July's Nonfarm Payrolls were down 23,000, and May and June were revised down by a total of 103,000. If August data continues to weaken, rate hike expectations will be extinguished. If the rebound exceeds expectations, Waller's hawkish stance will have data support.
Waller has made it very clear at Jackson Hole that inflation is still too high, overall financial conditions are far from restrictive, and the labor market is still in a state of full employment. If inflation cannot "clearly and quickly enough" return to 2%, the Fed "still has work to do." The probability of a rate hike in September has already jumped from 35% to 65%, and the two-year Treasury yield has risen by 12 basis points. The market is already pricing in a rate hike, now waiting for data to confirm.
BTC is fluctuating around 77,600, with 80,000 turning from support into resistance. Strong employment data solidifies rate hike expectations, and BTC continues to be under pressure. Weak employment data cools rate hike expectations, giving BTC a chance to retest 80,000. Don't bet on the data, wait for it to land before making a move. The direction hasn't changed, only the rhythm. Brother Ci has spoken, savor it carefully. $BTC $ETH $SOL #白宫会晤加密业，政策成果待观察 Wow, Injective isn't even making a statement? The chain has been down for almost 4 hours, and the official Twitter is still posting marketing content.
Here's what happened: someone exploited a long-disabled oracle vulnerability, created 299 markets pointing to that oracle, triggered the "no price refund" mechanism, got double compensation, and ran off with about 4.9 million USD, converted into 1980 ETH.
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults ZORA/USDT trades at $ZORA $0.008525 (-3.80%) on OKX, attempting to consolidate after pulling back from a recent high of $ZORA $0.008912 to test support near $0.008390. The asset moves within a 24-hour range of $0.008358 to $0.012054.
Price action remains capped below key moving averages (MA5: $0.008563, MA10: $0.008579, MA20: $0.008628) despite mild positive MACD momentum. Reclaiming $0.008563 is crucial for a potential recovery,
#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #OKX.ai $TRUMP Brothers, let's talk about the TRUMP coin, this coin's unlocking really never ends!
Brothers, do we retail wallets have more, or does Trump issue more coins?
😆 Haha (I can say it's the most disgusting coin in history)
Usually, there are daily small linear unlocks, continuously releasing chips, with constant selling pressure hanging overhead.
Turning point: September 18 is the pivot point, let me make it clear to everyone, this day is not an automatic pump on schedule, but a large team cliff unlock day.
At that time, 28.7 million TRUMP will be released at once, belonging to early creators and institutions, with extremely low cost.
Two scenarios lie ahead:
The first bearish scenario: after unlocking, institutions directly cash out and dump, the coin price continues to be pressured and grinds down.💹
The second is the real upward turning point, institutions choose not to sell, and the overall market rises, with enough incremental funds to absorb all this selling pressure, only then is there a chance for a rebound rally.📉
Looking at the data, TRUMP's total supply is 1 billion coins, currently 671 million unlocked, and 329 million still locked.👍
Every month on the 18th, there will be a large team unlock round, continuing until the end of 2027. Plus the daily continuous small releases, selling pressure is always present.
And now, real incoming funds are very few, many trades on the market are done by quant bots going back and forth, with low real human participation.
So don't just expect a surge on September 18, whether it rises or not depends on two core points: whether the unlocked chips will be dumped, and whether the market can bring funds to absorb the selling pressure. Missing either condition makes it hard for the market to move.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $TRUMP
The above is only personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. $TRUMP $ETH Just taking a quick look
$ETH This week slid from a high of 2,566 down to 2,384 then bounced back to 2,470, moving in sync with $BTC but weaker — $BTC only dropped 5.6%, $ETH fell 7%, showing much less resilience. The fee rate dropped from 0.0069% to 0.0025% then rose back to 0.0057%, indicating insufficient bullish confidence. OI shrank from 6.13 billion to 5.79 billion, with clear net outflows. For now, avoid $ETH contracts, let $BTC run first, wait until $ETH stabilizes above 2,500 before considering. $CORE
Recently, everyone has been paying attention to the increase of hundreds of millions of tokens in the core market circulation, which is the main reason why the coin price dropped from around 0.026 to around 0.020. At first, the increase in circulation was small. Few people noticed it. And the coins flowing into the market exchanges were only a part; the price did not fluctuate much, always hovering between 0.025-0.026 in a tug-of-war. As the amount of coins flowing into the market gradually increased, the market simply could not absorb so many coins, so the price once dropped to around 0.020. The project team's announcement made everyone feel chills down their spine! Tokens will be reclaimed. Will the coins that have entered personal wallets be reclaimed? Is this a thief crying "stop thief" or is there another explanation? If it is a personal wallet, how can they reclaim it? Could it be that private keys, mnemonic phrases, and passwords are ineffective or are they completely exposed to them? If it is the project team's doing, then the next outcome will be a fierce sell-off. Both scenarios have a heavy negative impact! The exchange will close deposit and withdrawal channels before September 3rd, which will inevitably cause panic and losses. Perhaps this will be its last moment of glory! Everyone, proceed with caution and cherish it!$KO KO Market Observation: It Has Been a Full Week Since the Pullback from the Stage High, Positive Narratives Face Real-World Testing
$KO Coca-Cola has pulled back from the recent stage high, and a full week has passed since. The fundamental positives such as the El Niño-driven high-temperature consumption expectations and the sugar market dynamics remain intact, but short-term market funds have already chosen to take profits.
Looking back at the contract data, the current price is 88.98, with a heavy stack of sell orders in the 89-91 range above. Long positions in contracts still account for a high 76.25%, with a long-short ratio of 3.21, indicating retail bullish sentiment remains very crowded. The past week's pullback is not a direct end to the bullish trend but more like profit-taking after a rally. Many traders entered long positions based on the narrative of El Niño boosting consumption but overlooked that the market won't keep rising solely on stories; after a rise, funds naturally take profits and exit.
This week's volatile pullback also reflects the market weighing two variables: on one hand, the potential positive of El Niño boosting cold drink consumption; on the other, the risk of extreme weather pushing up international sugar prices, increasing raw material costs for companies, compounded by global interest rate hikes suppressing consumer stock valuations. These multiple factors tug against each other, making it difficult for the market to directly resume an upward attack.
To retake the resistance level at 91, two hurdles must be overcome. First, the heavy sell orders above need to be absorbed, requiring substantial incremental buying funds to sweep through the orders; second, the currently overcrowded long positions need to be partially digested, with some floating profit longs exiting to release selling pressure. Carrying the industry???
Does the industry disappear if CZ doesn't go to jail or pay fines???
4.3 billion USD is not a small amount.
But this money goes to the US government, not as welfare for the industry.
The industry should rectify where needed, and no one who should exit the market has been spared.
How does this become "carrying the industry"?
What he can control is Binance's compliance issues, but he can't control the FTX collapse.
Tying these two things together is somewhat forced drama.
I know what he wants to express: if Binance had also collapsed at that time, the market would be worse.
But "carrying" means actively taking responsibility, while "paying the bill" means passively bearing the cost—two different things.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $BNB Updated: 2026-09-01 COP (Electricity Cost): $58,837 / BTC AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost): $76,488 / BTC BTC Price: $78,734 (Sep 01, 11:02 VNT) Price / COP: 1.34x Price / AISC: 1.03x => Hold, observe & wait zone 200W SMA: +21.4% (vs 200W SMA) Weekly RSI: 55.5 Market Insights: Bitcoin continues to trade above its All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) of mining. Following 10 weeks of consolidation around the 200-week SMA (from W24 through W33), BTC experienced a strong rally in W34, surging over 24% above Recently, there has been a very obvious contrast in institutional funds. In the previous full 5 trading days, $BTC spot ETF net inflows were about $1.918 billion, and ETH ETF about $693 million. In the most recent full 5 days, BTC ETF net inflows dropped to about $925 million, a decrease of about 52%; ETH ETF, on the other hand, rose to about $816 million, an increase of about 18%. In other words, BTC is still the largest institutional asset in Crypto, but the marginal change in new funds recently has started to tilt towards ETH. 1. This is not just a change in ETF numbers; ETH/BTC is also strengthening simultaneously. In mid-August, ETH/BTC was around 0.0296, and now it has returned to about 0.0315. This indicates that ETH has indeed strengthened relative to BTC recently. So what we are seeing now is not "ETH ETF suddenly having a large inflow one day," but two signals appearing simultaneously: ETH ETF strengthening relative to BTC; ETH/BTC is also moving upward. However, the trend cannot yet be said to be fully confirmed because ETH/BTC still has not truly broken through the key area around 0.032–0.0325. 2. Institutions may be starting to give $ETH a higher allocation weight. One reason is that BTC has already undergone a rapid revaluation. After new funds enter Crypto, they may not all concentrate on BTC; ETH, as the second largest high-liquidity asset, naturally becomes the next target.🇯🇵 THE "BOMB" JAPANESE YEN IS CHARGING UP: BOJ MAY RAISE INTEREST RATES, AND $BTC FACES A FORGOTTEN LIQUIDITY SHOCK While the market focuses on the Fed, oil, and Iran, another variable is becoming more dangerous: Japan. The 2-year Japanese government bond yield just hit 1.746% — the highest in over 31 years. The 10-year JGB yield is also approaching 2.95%, the highest level since 1996. The yen remains around ¥160/USD, while the market is pricing in about a 73% chance that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will raise interest rates Stopped buying for 10 weeks, Strategy suddenly made a move again.
Strategy's latest disclosure: From August 24 to 30, it bought 4,603 $BTC in one go, spending about $369.7 million, with an average cost of $80,318. This is the first re-accumulation after a pause of about 10 weeks.
The result is interesting — right after the purchase, BTC dropped below the cost line.
Currently, Strategy holds 845,050 BTC, with a total investment of about $63.73 billion and an overall average holding price of $75,412.
What’s even more noteworthy is where the money came from.
This week, Strategy sold about 4.53 million shares of $MSTR, net raising $602.8 million, of which $369.7 million was used to buy BTC, $151.8 million to repurchase $STRC, and about $30 million to continue replenishing the cash account.
So what really deserves attention this time is not the short-term buying position of Strategy, but that it chose to increase its BTC holdings again after a 10-week pause.
When the market falls, it actually starts using financing funds to buy coins again.
If even Strategy presses the “buy” button again, then every deep BTC pullback going forward will become a key window for market observers to gauge institutional buying strength.
Short-term fluctuations are not surprising, but the direction of big money is often more worth watching than daily ups and downs. #Strategy与BitMine同步增持 The crypto ETF picture is becoming increasingly fragmented. Capital is still flowing into U.S. spot crypto ETFs, but the behavior around $BTC and $ETH is clearly diverging. 🟢 $ETH ETF: Ethereum funds have shown more consistent accumulation, with institutional demand appearing less reactive to short-term price swings. Some investors seem to be positioning around Ethereum’s evolving staking and yield narrative, treating pullbacks as opportunities to build exposure. 🟠 $BTC ETF: Bitcoin flows lookFirst, a question: Over the past two years, $BTC rose from 40,000 to 126,000. During this period, do you think there were more active buyers or more active sellers on the spot market? The answer is more sellers, and overwhelmingly so.
Look at this chart: red represents active selling exceeding active buying, green is the opposite. From 2024 to this year, the chart is almost entirely red, with the few green bars in the middle completely drowned out by red.
This is interesting: the price tripled, yet active buying was a net outflow. So where did the money come from? The answer is, the money never actually went through the order book.
CVD only counts one thing: who is actively taking orders. If you place a limit order and wait, it doesn't count. Only when you sweep the market with a market order does it count. The main buyers this round are ETFs, which build positions by having authorized participants source coins OTC or slowly absorb them with limit orders—they don’t rush to Binance to grab coins at market price.
So, the chart being so red these past two years doesn’t mean no one is buying; it means buyers don’t need to rush.
Conversely, who is constantly hitting market sell orders on the order book? It’s the impatient group: miners and retail investors eager to cash out.
Understanding this changes how you use this indicator. It doesn’t measure demand; it measures patience.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验