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🧵 As the US-Iran conflict heats up, here are my seven takes
Let me start with something.
Last night, Bitcoin directly broke through 63,000 from around 65,000, reaching a low of 62,200. The market was stunned by Trump's tough remarks about Iran.
And then? Today, BTC rebounded back to around 63,500.
The bulls and bears kept getting hit back and forth, with volatility maxed out.
But I want to tell you—the real storm has not yet come.
1️⃣ An evacuation alert is not a warning, but a signal of action
On August 1, the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem issued a security alert, advising citizens to consider leaving the country. The U.S. State Department is reminding Middle Eastern citizens to prepare for evacuation.
This is not advice, but a signal.
After the 2019 Gulf crisis and the 2023 Sudanese civil war—after the evacuation, the conflict escalated substantially. This time? The U.S. and Israel are planning the "most intense bombing to date" on Iran's energy infrastructure, targeting power plants and refineries.
Evacuating citizens before bombing is standard procedure.
2️⃣ A 20% increase in oil prices is just the beginning
In July, international oil prices have risen by more than 20% cumulatively. Brent crude surged 4.6% on Friday to $88.10. Grey market continues to rally, with Brent breaking through $90.
But this is not the end.
There is already discussion within the U.S. about completing the bombing before the financial markets open on August 3 to avoid impacting the global economy.
What does that mean? They know the crackdown will ignite the market, but they just want to choose a time when the damage is minimal.
If the blow really hits, Brent at $90? That was just the beginning. If the Strait of Hormuz is blockaded, it wouldn't be surprising if oil prices hit $100.
3️⃣ The impact on crypto is divided into three stages, and many people only see the first layer
Day 1: Panic selling. Any news is interpreted as negative. Last night, BTC plunged from 65,000 to 62,000 as a rehearsal.
Week 1: Intense differentiation. Safe-haven funds will concentrate in BTC. Knockoff? Liquidity will be drained. The gap between BTC and altcoins will widen to the point where you question your life.
Month One: If the conflict does not escalate into a full-scale war, BTC will recover and outperform most assets. But the premise is—you have to live until that time.
4️⃣ The logic of the knockoff season has been interrupted
This is not "all negative news has been released"; this is a geopolitical black swan.
In this environment, there are only two places for funds: BTC and stablecoins.
Knockoff? Don't even think about it. Liquidity will be drained away like a receding tide. Those still calling it the knockoff season either don't understand the macro or are too heavily invested and deceiving themselves.
5️⃣ Shorting volatility now = giving away money
In geopolitical events, Gamma will devour everything Theta.
Plain language: The rent you collect from selling calls and puts can wipe you out in one rally.
Don't be the seller of the options. Don't think, "With volatility this high, it should go down." Geopolitics does not concern technical aspects.
6️⃣ Most importantly: A sharp drop is an opportunity, but be prepared for a second bottoming out
The first crash after the outbreak of conflict has historically been an opportunity.
But this time is different.
In an interview with French media, Trump said: "If we cannot get 100% of what we want from Iran, we will definitely consider resuming a full-scale war." ”
100%。 He didn't leave himself a single word of space.
So this time, you need to prepare two options: buy the first sharp drop, but keep your bullets ready for the second bottom.
7️⃣ The last sentence, and also the most important one
Whoever holds the private keys holds the assets.
Escalation of conflict could lead to CEXs suspending withdrawals—this is not alarmism, but historical experience.
The coins you put on exchanges may not be available in extreme cases.
Not your private key, not your coin. This statement is more true than ever in the face of geopolitical conflict.
$BTC $BZ $CL #美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施, the embassy issued an evacuation warning #30年期美债收益率创19年新高
I believe 99% of people don't know what U.S. Treasuries are or how yields affect the economy. I think it's necessary to briefly explain:
*U.S. Treasury bonds are when you lend money to the U.S. government, which pays interest periodically and returns the principal at maturity.
*So why do U.S. Treasury yields rise while bond prices fall?
*Here's a simple example. Suppose you have a $1,000 old U.S. Treasury bond, paying $40 in interest annually, which is 4%. Later, new bonds issued by the U.S. government could pay $50 per year, equivalent to 5%. At this point, others naturally don't want to pay $1,000 for your old debt that can only pay $40. You can only sell old debt at a lower price. When bond prices fall, buyers' real yields rise, gradually approaching the level of newly issued bonds in the market.
*As of July 31, yields on U.S. 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bonds rose to approximately
2-year term: 4.28%
5-year term: 4.45%
10-year term: 4.75%
30-year term: 5.27%
*What is the meaning of the different periods?
2 years: Market votes on the Fed's next move.
5 years: The market's judgment of the upcoming economic cycle.
10-year: The 10-year U.S. Treasury is one of the most important interest rate indicators in global financial markets. U.S. mortgages, corporate loans, corporate bonds, and the valuations of many stocks are directly or indirectly affected by the 10-year Treasury yield. So the 10-year U.S. Treasury can be understood as: the base price of global capital.
30 years: What price is the market willing to lend money to the U.S. for 30 years? It includes long-term inflation, fiscal pressure, and time risks.
*So this record high in yields shows that the market's concerns are no longer limited to whether the Fed will raise rates in the short term. If I were to lend money to the U.S. for 30 years, a return of about 4% would be insufficient; I would need at least 5% or more to compensate for inflation and uncertainty in the coming decades.
So what impact did this incident have?
(1) Those who already hold long-term bonds may experience significant floating losses
(2) U.S. stock valuations will come under pressure
(3) Mortgages and corporate financing may continue to remain elevated
(4) The U.S. government's interest pressure will gradually increase
*To sum up: the rise in 30-year Treasury yields means global capital is repricing long-term borrowing in the U.S. What really needs to be watched next is not whether yields will briefly touch 5.27%, but whether the 30-year yield can fall back below 5%. If long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain above 5%, then not only bonds but also U.S. mortgages, corporate financing, U.S. stock valuations, government finances, and the global asset pricing system will be affected.The strong price defense of OKB is not simply due to being 'undervalued,' but is more likely a distorted signal of the risk premium structure in the derivatives market. What has already been priced in is the conviction that 'platform buying pressure supports the downside,' while what has not yet been priced in is the probability that 'when that support breaks, derivative positions will be explosively liquidated.' The market perceives OKB as a defensive stock, but the derivatives market has excessively accumulated leverage betting on this stability. The core fact remains as stated in the original text. While the leading coins BTC and ETH are undergoing corrections, OKB has maintained sideways movement and shows clear relative strength compared to altcoins. This is usually interpreted as 'platform protection' or 'whale accumulation,' but from the derivatives risk perspective, a different conclusion emerges. - Structural interpretation: While the buy wall in the spot market fixes the price, the derivatives market tends to accumulate high-leverage short positions based on this 'fixed price.' The lower the price volatility, the more strategies aiming for option selling and funding cost arbitrage increase, 2013年11月，比特币冲上 $1,163 历史新高，牛市戛然而止。
此后14个月一路跌到2015年1月的 $152，跌幅 -86.9%。
2014年全年下跌，2015年全年横盘磨底，整整熊了两年，这是加密史上最漫长、恢复最慢的一轮熊市。
诡异的是：这两年，宏观流动性是历史级宽松的。
零利率，QE3刚印完4.5万亿，没有缩表，没有加息
水龙头开到最大，比特币却熊了两年。
按我们之前的模型，决定牛熊的三大要素：叙事、流动性、筹码结构。
2014年全年阴跌、没有像样的反弹，筹码极度出清；宏观流动性又极度充裕。按理说牛市应该更早出现，为什么又磨了整整一年？
这个反例逼我们把模型再升级一层：
流动性不止宏观流动性，还有内生流动性。
宏观流动性决定外面有没有钱和钱贵不贵；
内生流动性决定"这些钱敢不敢进来"。
内生流动性是信任问题
钱再多、再便宜，买家没有信心下单，就没有一笔真实成交，价格就涨不动。
而那两年，市场的信任被彻底打穿了。
导火索：门头沟（Mt. Gox）破产。
它当时处理全球约70%的比特币交易，是全世界买卖和存储比特币的主要门户，2014年2月，它停止提币、随即申请破产，约85万枚BTC凭空消失。
这不是"一家交易所倒了"。
这相当于加密世界的中央银行破产，全市场七成的成交量、最大的法币进出通道、最深的订单簿，被同一个事件一次性抹掉。
用户不仅要承受价格下跌，还要承受存在交易所里的币可能直接归零的恐惧。
于是每个人的理性选择都是：提币、离场、不再报价，恐惧蔓延整个市场，流动性进一步枯竭，价格阴跌不止，几个月内从近 $1,000 跌到 $300-400，卖压又持续了整整一年，2015年1月才见底 $152。
雪上加霜的，还有三刀：
第一刀：2013年10月丝绸之路被查封，创始人被判两个终身监禁。比特币当时最大的真实使用场景之一直接关门，很多人的第一反应是"比特币没用了"。
第二刀，最狠的一刀：2013年那个顶，本身就是假的。
事后调查显示，冲上 $1,100 的行情里，有相当部分是 Mt. Gox 上"Willy""Markus"这类机器人刷量刷出来的。
一个假顶，跌下来自然没有真实买盘去接。
第三刀：入金管道断裂：Mt. Gox 爆雷后，银行普遍把加密视为高危行业、大面积拒绝服务；主流媒体几乎不再报道比特币，新资金想进，都进不来。
这就是典型的流动性抽水，严重程度相当于宏观流动性狠狠的加息缩表
信任塌了，为什么要整整两年才修得好？
因为信任是唯一一种钱买不回来的东西。
它只能靠时间和无事故一点点重新累积，一场七成市场规模的卷款跑路，需要足够长的清白记录才能抵消，这个过程无法用任何政策、任何资金加速。
直到2015年8月，市场情绪才开始稍有反转；2016年7月减半点火，新一轮周期才真正启动。
所以 2014-2015 留下的这条定律，值得学习铭记：
宏观流动性决定外面有没有水，内生信任决定水引不引得进来。
水龙头开得再大，信任塌了，一滴都进不来。
而如今，故事第一次不一样了。
2014年，信任只能靠时间一天天熬回来。
今天，信任被直接写进了法律、托管进了ETF。
看看现在市场的交易主体：贝莱德、富达的现货ETF，Strategy这类金库公司，合规交易所，传统金融机构，甚至美国政府本身，战略储备加立法议程。
当年，一家交易所占了全市场七成交易量，一炸全塌；
今天，交易所、ETF、托管行、链上场所各分一杯，没有任何单点还托着整个市场。
当年，银行大面积拒绝服务，法币通道说断就断；
今天，稳定币有了GENIUS法案，市场结构有CLARITY法案在推进，管道第一次被钉进法律框架。
合规消灭不了波动，但它把”单点崩塌抹掉全市场”这种2014式的信任危机，压到了历史最低概率。
内生信任这道闸，从没像今天这样敞开过。
再看外部那道闸：
我们面对的宏观，和2022年那轮被暴力加息抽水的熊市完全相反：通胀回落，降息周期已经启动。
套用我们的分水模型：
水位 = 总水位 × 分配份额
分配份额 = 赔率 × 叙事燃料 × 竞品相对得分
总水位：降息周期进行中，比2022 年紧缩期友好得多；
赔率：BTC从高点回撤超50%，超高性价比区间；
竞品：AI估值正在被市场重新审视，资金已经开始高低切换，罗素2000今年涨幅接近标普的两倍，轮动即将发生；
燃料：CLARITY、RWA，正在从叙事即将变成大规模落地。
四个变量，全部指向同一个方向。
两道闸，第一次同时打开。
我们正在逼近引爆点。Tingfenglu 017 | Expensive doesn't mean it's valuable
After SpaceX went public, it once soared to $225, with its market value soaring to $2.66 trillion, making Musk the first trillionaire in human history.
But in just over a month,
The stock price fell to $108.
Market value evaporated by more than $1.2 trillion.
Many people think the company has suddenly lost its value.
Actually, the real change isn't the company, but the stock.
When listed, less than 5% of stocks are truly tradable; many want to buy, but few can sell.
Naturally, the price keeps getting higher and higher.
Later, a large number of restricted shares began to be gradually unlocked.
Things you can't grab before.
suddenly becomes less difficult to buy,
Prices are also starting to return to where they belong.
The same goes for the wet market.
A basket of lychees was down to the last two pounds.
The boss dares to sell for twenty.
The truck had just finished unloading, and the ground was completely full.
Still the fruit of that tree.
Pricing is determined by the market,
Things have never changed; they are rare, precious, dense, and cheap.
The fewer the time, the more people are eager to compete.
The more you have, the more people will calculate the price.
It reminds me of many scumbag quotes,
When I love you, you are my treasure.
When I don't love you, you are nothing.
Therefore,
Price does not reflect value.
Rather: scarcity.