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Finally, OpenSea has officially launched Solana NFT trading. Counting from the 2022 beta version, Solana is the first non-EVM chain it has supported in 4 years, so this cannot be simply described as a new listing. The entry value of an NFT marketplace depends on whether users can see assets from multiple chains in one place. OpenSea supporting Solana means it no longer only competes with the Ethereum NFT market but instead competes for cross-chain collectors and trading liquidity. This is what I believe to be the true moat of an NFT platform, including but not limited to wallets, search, trading, royalties, discovery, and cross-chain distribution. Of course, after cross-chain integration, wallet, signature, and security issues become more complex. When choosing an NFT platform, remember to check chain coverage, official contracts, and signature prompts. Don’t just look at trading volume, and don’t assume all collections are safe just because the platform supports a new chain. It is recommended to test with a small wallet first and not connect your main wallet directly to a new page."TRUMP: The real big market move may not have started yet" Recently, $TRUMP hasn't shown any particularly strong trend. The current price is around $2.4, having dropped more than 96% from the all-time high of $73.43; but since hitting a historical low of about $1.37 in mid-August, the price has started to show clear low-level oscillations. So now, simply discussing "whether it can fall further" is no longer very meaningful. What I am more concerned about is this: In the next two months, $TRUMP may enter a very sensitive political trading cycle. The 2026 U.S. midterm elections are approaching. November 3rd is the official voting day. And TRUMP, as a Meme coin, is highly tied to Donald Trump's personal political influence. So from now on, market trading may no longer be just about candlestick charts. Instead, it will be about: Trump's approval ratings, the Republican Party's election prospects, and the market's expectations for the midterm election results. Surveys at the end of August showed Trump's approval rating at only 33%, and Democratic voters' enthusiasm to vote is clearly higher than that of Republicans. The market already has an "election expectation gap" to speculate on. What Meme coins excel at is: trading expectations first. Assuming Trump's camp ultimately performs very poorly, then the market will be trading not just on "how many seats the Republicans lost." Instead, assets like $TRUMP, which heavily rely on Trump's personal narrative, could very likely face a very severe valuation compression.The market is stuck. BTC and ETH are both consolidating sideways. The 78000 level is like a stubborn band-aid, neither removable nor shakeable. The trading volume at 79500 is like a fly's leg—too little for bulls to even wedge in, and not enough to scare bears away. ETH continues to be squeezed, oscillating between 2350 and 2480 with a suffocatingly narrow range. SOL is playing dead, ZEC is lying flat; forget about momentum trades, there’s not even a hint of wind—just funds inside the market digging into each other's pockets. TRUMP and LAB occasionally twitch, chasing them leads to getting stuck, and running late means getting buried. ZORA’s surge at dawn was like a ghost; retail investors woke up to find the bull already gone, leaving only the cold wind at the peak. BTC is steady as an old dog, while altcoins jump up and down—not sector rotation, but a liquidity meat grinder. Remember, pumping to dump isn’t charity; they’re eyeing the small change in your account. In terms of strategy, BTC won’t move without volume breaking 80000; Ethereum won’t be watched unless it holds above 2520. For small coins, if you’re itchy, take a 1% position to try your luck; profit or loss is fate, don’t get carried away. Stop losses must be decisive, and your posture should look good. Bottom fishing? Wait for a dip to 75000 first; right now, it’s all mid-mountain. Don’t let candlesticks set the rhythm; most news is noise. Employment data? Wash? It’s all a script, just an excuse for volatility. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 OIL IS BACK ABOVE $90, AND MACRO IS GETTING LOUDER Bitcoin is trading around $78,780 as tensions in the Middle East intensify and shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz increase. The headline is geopolitical. But the more important story for Bitcoin is what happens to oil, inflation and liquidity. Rising Brent crude back above $90 could increase inflation expectations. Higher inflation expectations can influence Federal Reserve policy expectations. If markets begin pricing fewer or later rate cuts, Treasury yields could rise and liquidity conditions could tighten. That creates pressure on risk assets, including crypto. The transmission chain is what matters: Geopolitical tension → oil rises → inflation expectations increase → Fed expectations shift → yields and liquidity change → BTC reacts. At the same time, there is another side to the story. During periods of geopolitical uncertainty, some investors may view Bitcoin as an alternative hedge alongside traditional assets such as gold. But that doesn't mean BTC automatically becomes a safe-haven asset every time tensions escalate. Short-term liquidity still matters. That's why I'm not trying to trade the headline itself. I'm watching the variables underneath it. Brent crude. U.S. Treasury yields. Dollar strength ETF flows And most importantly, how Bitcoin reacts to them BTC is currently around $78.8K, so the market is still sitting in an important decision area If oil stabilizes and yields stop climbing, risk appetite could gradually improve and give Bitcoin another opportunity to strengthen If oil continues higher while yields rise sharply, the pressure on BTC could increase even if the long-term structure remains constructive Personally, I'm still leaning toward a gradual return of bullish conditions. But I don't think this is the moment for blind speculation The market can change direction quickly when geopolitics and monetary policy collide Don't trade the headline Trade the transmission. Watch oil. Watch yields. Watch liquidity. Then watch how BTC responds. $BTC $ETH $SOL Since the last purchase of 520 $BTC by $MSTR at an average price of about $67,068 between June 15 and 21, after more than two months, MSTR has bought Bitcoin again, this time purchasing 4,603 coins at an average price of $80,318, with a total value of $369.7 million. During these two-plus months, MSTR sold a total of 6,948 BTC, receiving approximately $430 million, with an average price around $62,000. From a mathematical perspective, this does seem a bit like a "losing trade," but given the circumstances at the time, selling BTC to repurchase preferred stock was also the right move. In the past week, Strategy sold 4,531,421 shares of MSTR common stock on the market through ATM, generating $602.8 million in revenue. Besides using $369.7 million to buy Bitcoin, it also used $151.8 million to repurchase $STRC, paid $50.7 million in STRC dividends, and increased cash reserves by $30 million. Currently, MSTR still has a remaining issuance capacity of $19.0908 billion under the ATM. While everyone is focused on the price of Bitcoin, a warning signal has first emerged from Japan. The 2-year interest rate is 1.746%. This is the highest level in 31 years. Even more concerning is the yen. The interest rate spread between the US and Japan for 2-year bonds has narrowed to 2.64%, yet the yen has broken through the 160 yen per US dollar mark. This means the market is paying attention to more than just simple interest rate differences. Yen carry trades. Borrowing cheap yen to invest in overseas risk assets. Bitcoin may also be affected by these funds. The problem arises when the yen suddenly strengthens. The burden of repaying borrowed yen gradually increases, investors may sell assets like Bitcoin to convert to cash. This kind of movement also occurred in August 2024. At that time, Bitcoin and Ethereum dropped by 20%. The Bank of Japan's rate hike in September itself is not important, what matters more is how much of the accumulated yen carry positions remain. Japan injected as much as 15.4 trillion yen, or 97 billion USD, from late July to late August. However, the yen once again broke through 160 yen. Even with rate hikes, the currency still weakens, this is the core variable now. More important than the Bank of Japan's decision in September is the sharp rise in the yen → the extent of carry trade liquidation needs closer monitoring. Even if Bitcoin holds at $79,000, if this trend changes, the situation could be different. Will the risks originating from Japan truly be reflected in the price?Continuing from the last part, let's talk about why I suddenly became a fan of $ZEC and believe it is very likely to outperform BTC and ETH in this cycle. There are four reasons: 1. Asset Form - If you entered the crypto space around 2017-2018, you must have heard the phrase "Bitcoin is gold, Litecoin is silver." At that time, Litecoin also lacked "empowering" features like smart contracts; it was just a faster, cheaper BTC fork. But because it came early, the market gave it the asset attribute of "silver." I remember back then some people forcibly attributed the functional property of "Bitcoin code testing ground" to LTC, trying to find value support for it. Later, BTC went through Lightning Network, various forks, the big block vs. small block debate, then inscriptions, runes, L2, Taproot, RGB... After two or three cycles of turmoil, the market voted with its feet and concluded that only BTC itself has value. The consensus of digital gold was basically established, both for retail investors and Wall Street. All other so-called "functional" things were left to ETH, Solana, and other chains. Thus, we entered a new phase. On one hand, the crypto space is best at "issuing assets," which peaked during the pump era. On the other hand, with the failure of the older generation represented by LTC and the newer generation represented by inscriptions, the label of "non-functional long-term valuable asset" still belongs only to BTC. So people joke that BTC is the biggest Meme. Doge, Pepe, etc., might count as half? But first, their market caps are not large enough, and they haven't survived long enough. Second, you can say BTC is a Meme, but it's hard to say the top Memes are digital gold or silver. The market has actually been looking for a second "non-functional long-term valuable" digital asset besides BTC. This asset cannot be a pure Meme but can be regarded as a Meme. This asset must be like BTC but sufficiently different from BTC. It must have a very unique attribute of its own, not just "faster, cheaper BTC" or "BTC code testing ground" like LTC. This asset must have gone through at least one full bull and bear cycle and lived long enough. Because for non-functional assets, history itself is part of the value. More importantly, it must answer a big question that BTC itself cannot answer but is equally grand. BTC solves the problem of public, verifiable, censorship-resistant digital scarcity; ZEC complements the other side: it turns "privacy" itself into a monetary attribute. More interestingly, this privacy does not require everyone to use it. Institutions can hold transparently and accept audits, while individuals still have the option to enter a private state when needed. So what ZEC truly offers is a "right to privacy for everyone." It has a monetary asset DNA similar to BTC but also has a distinct, irreplaceable independent attribute. So after thinking it through, I found ZEC is the best candidate, bar none. 2. Market Preference - Whether this rebound or bull market, you will find pure Memes and VC air coins are not favored. Besides BTC, only two types of assets have heat. One is those with good data, real users, and revenue, represented by Hyperliquid and Uniswap. The other is assets institutions are willing to hold and buy, including the first data-driven type and those institutions are optimistic about or can temporarily ignore current data for some reason, represented by XRP, ZEC, and TAO. In other words, if this cycle has an altcoin season, you should buy altcoins favored and repriced by institutional funds, not those favored by retail. 3. Chip Structure - ZEC has two highs: 700 in November last year and 880 in 2018. The 700 level has been broken. As long as it effectively breaks the major previous high of 880 from 2018, ZEC will enter a price discovery range with almost no trapped positions in mainstream trading history. Everyone must remember the price rallies after BTC broke previous highs. Compared to BTC's trapped positions at 80,000-100,000 and ETH's at 3,000-4,000, the potential selling pressure after ZEC breaks 880 is much better than those two chip structures. Moreover, these are highs from 8 years ago. Theoretically, after breaking 700 now, there should be no large trapped positions above. 4. Consensus Divergence - My impression is that Naval was the first to call ZEC's start, and then this consensus gradually spread, with more retail and institutions accepting it. But at the same time, bigger divergences arose due to ZEC's rise. Currently, Western consensus on ZEC is higher than Eastern, possibly because Western culture is naturally more sensitive and attentive to privacy than Asia. Looking at crypto history, heat plus divergence is the biggest driver for a token's rise. Look back at BTC in 2013, ETH in 2017, Solana in 2021, inscriptions in 2023, etc. All rose amid huge controversies. Market-wide consensus doesn't form quickly, but once it does, the peak is usually near. Think about "always lacking storage" two months ago and "the best summer of Korean girl group golden age"... So after breaking 700, I buy when the price is right, and once it completely breaks 880, I stop buying. Of course, nothing is perfect; I think ZEC can outperform BTC and ETH, but when it falls, its risk is also much higher than those two, so DYOR.$XRP Behind XRP's 40% Surge: Who's Buying, Who's Running? XRP has surged 40% in the past two weeks, but interestingly, futures open interest has dropped by 16%. Funds are rotating — retail and leveraged funds are closing positions and withdrawing on exchanges outside CME, leveraged funds' net shorts have more than doubled, while CME's institutional holdings have increased from 10% to 17%. On the other hand, spot ETFs have seen net inflows for 9 consecutive days, totaling $1.6 billion, with institutions like Goldman Sachs and Jane Street continuously accumulating. In short, this is not a retail sentiment-driven leveraged bull run, but institutions positioning through the ETF channel. Short sellers are adding positions while longs are absorbing them simultaneously, making the battle very intense. $XRP $BTC $ETH $LAB Bitcoin oscillates around 78,000, Ethereum continues to attract capital Will LAB rise? Capital differentiation: Bitcoin outflows, Ethereum inflows Bitcoin spot ETF ended a nine-day consecutive rise, recording $202 million outflows last Friday, with $82,000 repeatedly tested but unsuccessful. Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of $87.68 million, marking the 11th consecutive day of net inflows, with BlackRock's ETHA leading single-day inflows at $59.93 million. Ethereum recorded a net inflow of $195 million in the past 24 hours, becoming the most prominent target for capital inflows, signaling a rotation in the market from Bitcoin to Ethereum. Key levels Bitcoin's short-term support is at $76,500, with resistance between $79,800-$80,000; regaining above $80,000 is needed to restore sentiment. Ethereum's support is at $2,420-$2,450, with resistance between $2,550-$2,600. Macro remains the biggest constraint The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has risen to 64%, much higher than the 36% before the Jackson Hole speech. The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.78%. This Friday's August nonfarm payroll report will be the last key data before the FOMC meeting. After surging 24% in August, Bitcoin's ability to hold around $78,000 indicates spot buying support remains. However, the rate hike expectations combined with ETF capital differentiation make the short-term direction unclear. Whether Bitcoin can hold above $80,000 and whether Ethereum can continue to attract capital are the core uncertainties for September. Writing $ARB just experienced a surge driven by news, so I opened a small short position to test this trend 👊 $ARB rose from $0.083 to $0.109 today, an increase of about 24%, with a trading volume of 82.29M. What was the catalyst for this rise? OpenSea resumed support for Solana NFT trading. However, this news has no direct fundamental connection to $ARB itself, so this rise seems more like a spillover of the overall sector sentiment heating up and funds flowing into $ARB. Such rapid surges driven by news are often hard to sustain long-term. Once the initial hype fades, I will focus on whether a pullback occurs. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults 📊 SPCX Contract Liquidation Express (2026-09-01) Bears fully dominate, momentum strong then weak, awaiting the ultimate nonfarm guidance Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation 1 hour $6,824.15 $1,203.21 $5,620.93 4 hours $54,700 $3,424.39 $51,200 12 hours $480,000 $130,700 $349,300 24 hours $2,210,400 $437,700 $1,772,700 In 1 hour, bears tested control with 4.67x leverage, volume under $10,000; in 4 hours, bears violently took over with 14.95x leverage, volume surged to $54,700; in 12 hours, bears moderately controlled with 2.67x leverage, volume exploded to $480,000; in 24 hours, bears closed with 4.05x leverage, liquidations $1,772,700 vs. longs $437,700, totaling $2,210,400. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 21.7% of the 24-hour total, indicating low concentration—liquidation pressure mainly in the first half of 24 hours, significantly converging later. Bear leverage moved from 4.67x → 14.95x (violent strengthening) → 2.67x (avalanche exhaustion) → 4.05x (slight rebound), showing an N-shaped oscillation; short squeeze momentum rose then collapsed, with a weak late recovery. Leverage is recommended to be compressed below 3x; light positions should avoid blindly shorting. 🔥 Market Indicator | 2026-09-01 Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash’s hawkish tone faces the ultimate test from employment data; Bitcoin and gold deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation"; AI hardware returns enter a sustainability verification period. 📊 Nonfarm hits this Friday: Can Wash’s "hawk" withstand the data "blade"? At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm employment report will be released. The market expects new jobs of 58,000-65,000, previous value -23,000; unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.1%. Last week, Fed Chair Wash gave his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating inflation remains "too high" and "there is more work to do." The market quickly pushed the September rate hike probability to 60%. However, nonfarm has been weak for three consecutive times—if this week’s data weakens again, Wash’s hawkish stance will face a severe test. Goldman Sachs expects August core CPI month-on-month rise around 0.2%, suggesting FOMC will hold steady; JPMorgan emphasizes the "more important news" deciding September meeting results is this week’s nonfarm and next week’s CPI. ₿ BTC consolidates at highs: gold linkage strengthens, rate hike expectations pressure Bitcoin rose 28% in August, once breaking $81,000, but fell back under pressure after Wash’s hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $78,000-$79,000; spot gold also pressured, briefly dipping below $4,450 intraday. The core logic driving prior synchronous strength is "fiat credit revaluation"—in the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow combined. But after Wash’s speech, Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows again, and a stronger dollar suppressed gold and Bitcoin. Rising rate hike expectations are short-term suppressing "non-government credit assets" momentum—but if this week’s nonfarm data is weak, rate hike expectations may quickly collapse, allowing Bitcoin and gold to regain upward momentum. 🖥️ Broadcom and Dell take over: AI hardware returns face re-examination Following Nvidia’s explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week. Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. Market expects total revenue around $29.4 billion, up 84% year-on-year; AI semiconductor revenue expected at $16 billion, with growth over 200%. JPMorgan expects 2026 full-year AI revenue to exceed $56 billion. Dell will release Q2 earnings after market close on September 1. The company’s AI server backlog reaches $51.3 billion, quarterly AI orders $24.4 billion; AI server revenue expected around $15.5 billion. But margin pressure is notable—AI servers usually have low margins, and the market will focus on whether the Infrastructure Solutions Group can improve margins from 10.5%. 💎 Summary Three matters sketch the same picture: this Friday’s nonfarm will test Wash’s hawkish "more work to do" stance—if employment weakens again, the 60% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation" but are short-term pressured by rate hike expectations; Broadcom and Dell’s earnings will successively verify AI hardware return sustainability, with margin pressure becoming a new focus. Mapping to the SPCX contract market, bears used a violent 14.95x leverage to clear long leverage, but 24-hour liquidation concentration is only 21.7%, indicating large-scale liquidation pressure mainly came from the same period yesterday, not a continuous snowball effect. The N-shaped leverage trajectory reveals a key signal: bears completed a "blitzkrieg" in the 4-hour window but exhausted follow-up momentum later. The current market is not yet directionally decided but is defensively positioned before three major uncertainties land—using shorts to hedge macro and earnings uncertainties. Direction choice awaits nonfarm release. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 From $73 down to $1.6, who is still speculating on $TRUMP? The "President Coin" that once surged to $73 has now dropped to $1.6, a 97% decline. This is not a correction; it's a zeroing halving. TRUMP's current market cap is 382 million, with a daily increase of 1% and a weekly increase of 1.8%. It looks stable, but compared to its historical peak, it's trash. Its fatal flaw is clear: purely driven by political narratives. Whenever Trump tweets or news breaks, it surges or crashes. After the July spike riding election expectations, it has been buried all the way down, and those who bought high are still stuck. It’s listed on OKX’s hot search with a 1.6% drop, indicating waning interest. My honest opinion: TRUMP is a typical "event-driven meme" coin, suitable for positioning before major Trump moves and exiting once news lands. Holding long-term means taking the bag. The Trump family’s crypto business (World Liberty Financial) is also embroiled in conflicts of interest controversies. Policy benefits and pump-and-dump schemes are just a thin line apart. You can try it, but treat it like a lottery ticket, not an asset.September Chessboard: BTC Awaits New Direction Amid Macro Squeeze In August, BTC surged and then retreated, starting from the $60,000 range, reaching as high as $81,300, with a monthly increase of over 20%. However, the rally did not continue until the end of the month. The escalation of the US-Iran situation caused international oil prices to surge sharply, with Brent crude oil rising nearly 6% at one point. The oil price volatility reignited inflation concerns, shaking the previously stable expectations of rate cuts, and even sparked market discussions about the risk of rate hikes. As a result, BTC reversed downward from $81,300, retreating to the $78,000 range. The current core battleground is not the daily ups and downs but the persistence of macro pressure. If oil prices remain high, they will constrain the Federal Reserve's policy flexibility, putting pressure on risk assets; if the situation eases and oil prices fall, rate concerns will ease, allowing BTC to catch a breather. BTC is currently fighting on two fronts: it needs to digest the profits from the previous rapid rise while being wary of the macro "ceiling" formed by oil prices and rate expectations. Entering September, the key observation is the effectiveness of the $78,000 support. If it can stabilize and then retake $80,000, market confidence is expected to recover; if it fails, the previous upward logic needs to be reassessed. September is a month of waiting and choosing. $BTC $ETH There are new developments at Crypto Treasury, with Strategy restarting coin purchases and BitMine continuing to increase its ETH holdings. After a pause of about ten weeks, Strategy made a move again last week, buying 4,603 BTC at an average price of $80,318, spending approximately $370 million. The funds came from selling its own stock $MSTR, with the remainder used to repurchase preferred shares and pay dividends. The total holding is 845,050 BTC, with an average cost of $75,412, finally showing a paper profit. BitMine is taking a different path—continuously increasing holdings for 65 weeks straight, last week buying another 53,501 $ETH. The total holding is 5.9 million tokens, accounting for 4.9% of the total network supply, of which 5.07 million are staked, generating about $335 million annually in staking income alone. The divergence between the two models is becoming increasingly clear. The BTC bought by Strategy itself does not generate income and carries the interest burden of preferred shares and convertible bonds, with fixed annual expenses close to $1.8 billion. BitMine covers its expenses through staking income alone, able to sustain operations without selling assets. Back to Bitcoin $BTC, the continuous buying by these two companies indeed supports institutional demand. However, old issues like dilution, asset concentration, and price volatility remain. For investors, the comparison is no longer just about which between BTC and ETH rises more—it’s about which of these two models can sustainably increase the per-share asset value. #Strategy与BitMine同步增持 Last night’s SNDK movement, after watching it, I just want to say one thing: the market maker is teaching a lesson again. First, there was a bullish candle pulling up to 1543, looking like a breakout. As soon as long positions were placed, several bearish candles slammed down, breaking through 1451 directly, wiping out all long stop losses without exception. Just when you thought "this might crash," it reversed with a big bullish candle up to 1579, leaving the shorts no time to react before being taken out. It eats both sides without mercy. With this kind of movement, technical analysis basically fails; you have to look at the underlying factors. SNDK was included in the MSCI index, so index funds passively bought it during the close, forcibly pushing it up. Bernstein also came out to support it, listing it as the top pick in the storage sector, betting on AI inference and KV cache continuing to drive demand for high-capacity SSDs. The story is consistent, and the logic makes sense. Looking at the levels, 1418 was the first bottom, 1440 the second, and last night’s low was 1451, each bottom higher than the last. This is not a breakdown; it’s using negative news to scare out weak holders, then big money slowly accumulates. But I have to be clear, this is not a position to chase blindly now; RSI is already close to 60, so rushing in risks a pullback. So what I’m waiting for is just one thing: a pullback to around 1480 to 1500 to buy in batches, with a stop loss below 1450, and a target between 1550 and 1580. If there’s no opportunity, I won’t trade; it’s better than chasing halfway up the mountain. $SNDK Tonight's Nonfarm Preview: Data Quality May Determine September Rate Hike Path, Crypto Market Faces Critical Test 1. Market Background: Hawkish Expectations Fully Priced In Since Federal Reserve Chair Powell delivered a clear hawkish signal at the Jackson Hole Global Central Banking Symposium, market expectations for a September rate hike have surged — the probability of a 25 basis point hike in September has jumped from about 35% before the meeting to 57%-60%. The latest CME FedWatch data shows this probability has even reached 65.4%. Meanwhile, a December rate hike is fully priced in by the market. Powell's core stance is clear: inflation remains the central concern, and the Fed must see core inflation "clearly and at a sufficiently fast pace" converging toward the 2% target. In other words, as long as employment does not collapse, the Fed has reason to continue tightening. 2. Nonfarm Data Forecast: Significant Divergence Various institutions have markedly different forecasts for tonight's August nonfarm payrolls: Institution New Job Additions Forecast Unemployment Rate Forecast Reuters Survey (Market Consensus) +58,000 4.1% Bloomberg 53 Analysts Consensus +55,000 4.1% ING +65,000 — Deutsche Bank +65,000 — Wells Fargo/NBC +80,000 4.1% Better-than-expected nonfarm → September rate hike probability jumps → USD strengthens + US Treasury yields rise → Risk assets (tech stocks, cryptocurrencies) face valuation pressure → Crypto market declines Currently, Bitcoin is oscillating near $80,000, already at a key resistance zone. A period of pullback is needed to build momentum for a micro rally and prepare for a stronger surge. I still favor short-term short positions at present. Employment data hasn't been released yet, but BTC, ETH, and SOL have already given three completely different signals. Currently, BTC is still around 79,000, but ETH is only about 2,480, and SOL is near 104. If you look at BTC alone, it's easy to think the market is still quite strong. But when you look at the three major coins together, the feeling is completely different. BTC holding the high ground indicates that funds haven't clearly withdrawn for now; ETH not continuing to surge suggests that funds are noticeably cautious about more volatile coins; SOL still has some elasticity but hasn't shown real acceleration. So now I actually feel that the most worth watching this week isn't "whether the non-farm payrolls are good or not," but who moves first after the data comes out. If the employment data is weak, and BTC breaks through 80,000 first while ETH and SOL start catching up, that means funds are beginning to spread out again. But if BTC surges only to be pushed back down, and ETH and SOL remain weak, then it's not just simple volatility; funds are actively reducing risk. This is also why I'm currently reluctant to chase the first wave. Before the data release, every direction has a story; after the data release, only the real reaction of funds can't be deceived. The real big market move this week might not be the data itself, but which major coin first loses support after the data is out. Are you more focused on BTC now, or waiting for ETH and SOL to catch up? #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 $BTC $ETH $SOL Robinhood Chain has just delivered a set of very impressive data: It processed 5.52 million transactions in a single day, with a DEX trading volume of about $875 million, created approximately 22,600 tokens in one day, and on-chain application revenue reached $2.66 million. This revenue is about twice that of Ethereum applications, second only to Solana's $5.07 million. But there is a detail easily overlooked by headlines: the $2.66 million is the income earned by on-chain applications, not the revenue directly obtained by Robinhood company or the underlying public chain. Moreover, GMGN, Pons, and Uniswap contributed about 88% of the revenue, and the main driver is not the tokenized US stocks initially promoted by Robinhood, but Memecoin trading and rapid token issuance. This data proves that Robinhood Chain has successfully attracted traffic, but it cannot yet prove that it has established a sustainable financial ecosystem. When I judge whether a new chain is truly mature, I continue to observe three things: Whether activity can be maintained for weeks, not just a few days Whether revenue is long-term concentrated in token issuance and speculative tools Whether tokenized stocks can form real holdings, rather than just short-term trading volume High transaction numbers can create hype, but the real moat comes from users willing to keep assets long-term. If a chain focused on tokenized US stocks ultimately earns revenue through Memecoin, is that a product success or a deviation from its direction? 📊 LAB Contract Liquidation Express (2026-09-01) Bears fully dominate, momentum strong then weak, awaiting the ultimate nonfarm guidance Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation 1 hour $6,824.15 $1,203.21 $5,620.93 4 hours $54,700 $3,424.39 $51,200 12 hours $480,000 $130,700 $349,300 24 hours $2,210,400 $437,700 $1,772,700 In 1 hour, bears tested control with 4.67x leverage, volume under $10,000; in 4 hours, bears violently took over with 14.95x leverage, volume surged to $54,700; in 12 hours, bears moderately controlled with 2.67x leverage, volume exploded to $480,000; in 24 hours, bears closed with 4.05x leverage, liquidations $1,772,700 vs longs $437,700, totaling $2,210,400. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 21.7% of the 24-hour total, indicating low concentration—meaning liquidation pressure mainly focused on the first half of the 24 hours (around the same period yesterday), with significant contraction in the latter half. Bear leverage moved from 4.67x → 14.95x (violent strengthening) → 2.67x (avalanche-like exhaustion) → 4.05x (slight rebound), showing an N-shaped oscillation, with short squeeze momentum rising then collapsing, and a weak late recovery. Leverage is recommended to be compressed below 3x; light positions should avoid blindly shorting. 🔥 Market Wind Vane | 2026-09-01 Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish tone faces the ultimate test with employment data; Bitcoin and gold deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation"; AI hardware returns enter a sustainability verification period. 📊 Nonfarm hits this Friday: Can Wash's "hawk" withstand the data "blade"? At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm employment report will be released. The market expects new jobs of 58,000-65,000, previous value -23,000; unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.1%. Last week, Fed Chair Wash gave his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating inflation remains "too high" and "there is more work to do." The market quickly pushed the September rate hike probability to 60%. However, nonfarm has been weak for three consecutive times—if this week's data weakens again, Wash's hawkish stance will face a severe test. Goldman Sachs expects August core CPI month-on-month rise around 0.2%, suggesting FOMC will hold steady; JPMorgan emphasizes the "more important news" deciding September meeting results is this week's nonfarm and next week's CPI. ₿ BTC high-level oscillation: gold linkage continues to strengthen, rate hike expectations pressure Bitcoin rose 28% in August, once breaking $81,000, but fell back under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $78,000-$79,000; spot gold also under pressure, briefly dropping below $4,450 intraday. The core logic driving the previous synchronous strength is "fiat credit revaluation"—in the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow combined. But after Wash's speech, Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows again, and a stronger dollar suppressed gold and Bitcoin. Rising rate hike expectations are short-term suppressing "non-government credit assets" upward momentum—but if this week's nonfarm data is weak, rate hike expectations may quickly collapse, allowing Bitcoin and gold to regain upward momentum. 🖥️ Broadcom and Dell take over: AI hardware returns face re-examination Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week. Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. Market expects total revenue about $29.4 billion, up 84% year-on-year; AI semiconductor revenue expected at $16 billion, up over 200% year-on-year. JPMorgan expects full-year 2026 AI revenue to exceed $56 billion. Dell will release Q2 earnings after market close on September 1. The company has $51.3 billion in AI server backlog orders, quarterly AI orders $24.4 billion; AI server revenue expected about $15.5 billion. But profit margin pressure is notable—AI servers usually have low margins, and the market will focus on whether the Infrastructure Solutions Group margin can improve from 10.5%. 💎 Summary Three events sketch the same picture: this Friday's nonfarm will test Wash's hawkish "more work to do" stance—if employment weakens again, the 60% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation" but are short-term suppressed by rate hike expectations; Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify AI hardware return sustainability, with margin pressure becoming a new focus. Mapping to the LAB contract market, bears violently cleared long leverage at 14.95x, but 24-hour liquidation concentration is only 21.7%, indicating large-scale liquidation pressure mainly came from the same period yesterday, not a continuous snowball effect. The N-shaped leverage trajectory reveals a key signal: bears completed a "blitzkrieg" in the 4-hour window but exhausted follow-up momentum later. The current market is not yet directionally decided but is defensively positioned ahead of three major uncertainties landing—using shorts to hedge macro and earnings uncertainties. Direction choice awaits nonfarm release. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 The deadly sword of the nearly 300 million $CORE tokens minted out of thin air hangs high, and market panic has not dissipated at all. The community quickly concocted a new big promise: institutional investors will enter the market in September to take over. This script has been overused for a long time. Once the market can't withstand the decline, talk of institutional entry, positive news, and cooperation floods in. Essentially, it's a sedative for deeply trapped retail investors, dangling illusory hopes, forcing everyone to stubbornly hold their tokens to avoid a concentrated stampede crash. The facade is deliberately dressed up to look glamorous, but the foundation has long been rotten like a sieve, and the project team simply shuts down to avoid public scrutiny. The vulnerability review is repeatedly delayed, the destination of the newly minted massive tokens is a mystery, and they can be dumped to crash the market at any time. The fundamental issuance mechanism has caused a huge blunder, the underlying system is shaky, and still fantasizing that institutions will throw money into this mess to put out the fire? Purely wishful thinking. SatPay and BTCFi slogans are shouted loudly, but consecutive failures are already a foregone conclusion. The primary task of institutional entry is risk control screening; how can a project that just exploded with massive unexpected minting and has no reliable underlying rules attract large funds? Those trapped always foolishly wait for a savior to redeem them. Reality is especially cold, and rumors are just temporary anesthetics to stabilize emotions. The huge amount of tokens minted additionally will ultimately be taken on tearfully by retail investors holding on inside the market. The decentralized dream woven over many years has just shattered, and a new round of pie-in-the-sky drama has already hurriedly begun. $SNDK's surge at dawn was a forced ride by the index? SanDisk's sharp rise at dawn was due to being "forced on board" by the MSCI index—all tracking funds had to buy at a set point, and passive buying directly pushed the price up. But such a strong rise relies on the hard logic of AI storage: massive growth in inference data, SanDisk locking in the sector, plus signing long-term contracts that secure future shipments, making performance highly certain. For crypto traders, this is an opportunity where sentiment and liquidity resonate, and the race is to see who first understands the liquidity inflection point. Entered at 1489, exited at 1561, profit 17000u #OKX预言家：CS2波尔图激战，F1与英超接力 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 XRP rose 40% in two weeks, climbing from $0.99 to $1.38. The typical reaction is: leverage piled up, shorts got crushed, a classic short squeeze. But the data tells a completely different story: the total open interest in futures across the market dropped 16%, from 2.77 billion to 2.34 billion tokens. While the price rose, leverage was actually withdrawing. Even more counterintuitive is another set of numbers: the net short exposure of leveraged funds on CME for XRP doubled from 57 million tokens to 116 million tokens. The price went up 40%, yet professional funds were increasing their short positions. This is the part of the news that struck me as most unusual. If you change the subject to "that net short position," most interpretations place the subject on "XRP price" and then tell a story of "compliant institutions entering, retail investors retreating." But if you shift the subject to "that net short exposure," the whole narrative changes. A net short position of 116 million XRP was established at the peak of the price frenzy. This is not bearish speculation; it is hedging. Leveraged funds differ fundamentally from retail investors: they almost never go naked long or naked short. When they increase short positions on CME, there is very likely a corresponding spot long position on the other side of the ledger. They are not betting on XRP falling; they are buying insurance for their spot holdings. What does this imply? It means the core driver of this rally may not be the derivatives market at all, but the spot market. Spot buying is pushing the price up, while professional funds hedge on the futures side. The higher the price rises, 📊 KAITO Contract Liquidation Express (2026-09-01) Bears fully dominate, momentum strong then weak, awaiting the ultimate nonfarm guidance Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation 1 hour $6,824.15 $1,203.21 $5,620.93 4 hours $54,700 $3,424.39 $51,200 12 hours $480,000 $130,700 $349,300 24 hours $2,210,400 $437,700 $1,772,700 In 1 hour, bears tested control with 4.67x leverage, volume under $10,000; in 4 hours, bears violently took over with 14.95x leverage, volume surged to $54,700; in 12 hours, bears moderately controlled with 2.67x leverage, volume exploded to $480,000; in 24 hours, bears closed with 4.05x leverage, liquidations $1,772,700 vs. longs $437,700, totaling $2,210,400. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 21.7% of the 24-hour total, indicating low concentration—meaning liquidation pressure mainly focused on the first half of the 24 hours (around the same period yesterday), with significant contraction in the latter half. Bear leverage changed from 4.67x → 14.95x (violent strengthening) → 2.67x (avalanche-like exhaustion) → 4.05x (slight rebound), showing an N-shaped oscillation, with short squeeze momentum rising then collapsing, and a weak late recovery. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x; light positions should avoid blindly shorting. 🔥 Market Wind Vane | 2026-09-01 Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish tone faces the ultimate test with employment data; Bitcoin and gold deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation"; AI hardware returns enter a sustainability verification period. 📊 Nonfarm arrives this Friday: Can Wash's "hawk" withstand the "blade" of data? At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm employment report will be released. The market expects new jobs of 58,000-65,000, previous value -23,000; unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.1%. Last week, Fed Chair Wash gave his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating inflation is still "too high" and "there is work to do." The market quickly pushed the September rate hike probability to 60%. However, nonfarm has been weak for three consecutive times—if this week's data weakens again, Wash's hawkish stance will face a severe test. Goldman Sachs expects August core CPI month-on-month rise around 0.2%, suggesting FOMC will hold steady; JPMorgan emphasizes the "more important news" deciding September meeting results is this week's nonfarm and next week's CPI. ₿ BTC consolidates at high levels: gold linkage strengthens, rate hike expectations pressure Bitcoin rose 28% in August, once breaking $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $78,000-$79,000; spot gold also pressured, briefly dropping below $4,450 intraday. The core logic driving the prior synchronous strength is "fiat credit revaluation"—in the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow combined. But after Wash's speech, Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows again, and a stronger dollar suppressed gold and Bitcoin. Rising rate hike expectations are short-term suppressing "non-government credit assets" upward momentum—but if this week's nonfarm data is weak, rate hike expectations may quickly collapse, allowing Bitcoin and gold to regain upward momentum. 🖥️ Broadcom and Dell take over: AI hardware returns face re-examination Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week. Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. Market expects total revenue about $29.4 billion, up 84% year-on-year; AI semiconductor revenue expected at $16 billion, with growth over 200%. JPMorgan expects 2026 full-year AI revenue to exceed $56 billion. Dell will release Q2 earnings after market close on September 1. The company has $51.3 billion AI server backlog, quarterly AI orders $24.4 billion; AI server revenue expected about $15.5 billion. But profit margin pressure is notable—AI servers usually have low margins, market will focus on whether Infrastructure Solutions Group margin can improve from 10.5%. 💎 Summary Three matters sketch the same picture: this Friday's nonfarm will test Wash's hawkish "work to do" stance—if employment weakens again, the 60% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation" but short-term pressured by rate hike expectations; Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify AI hardware return sustainability, with margin pressure becoming a new focus. Mapping to the KAITO contract market, bears used a violent 14.95x leverage to clear long leverage, but 24-hour liquidation concentration is only 21.7%, indicating large-scale liquidation pressure mainly came from the same period yesterday, not a continuous snowball spread. The N-shaped leverage trajectory reveals a key signal: bears completed a "blitzkrieg" in the 4-hour window but exhausted follow-up momentum later. The current market is not yet directional but a defensive stance before three major uncertainties land—using shorts to hedge macro and earnings uncertainties. Direction choice awaits nonfarm release. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #英伟达向联发科投资35亿美元 Old Huang has made a move again. $3.5 billion was used to buy MediaTek's convertible bonds. These bonds have a tough feature — zero coupon interest rate, no interest for five years. What is Old Huang aiming for? He aims to tie MediaTek's AI chip business into his own ecosystem. The smartphone chip market is already too competitive to grow; MediaTek's revenue is increasing but profits are declining. The data center custom chip market is $80 billion, currently monopolized by Broadcom and Marvell. MediaTek's AI chip is expected to reach $2 billion this year, with a goal to capture 15% market share by 2027. Nvidia's $3.5 billion is the door opener for this entry. The impact on the crypto world is twofold. First, capital expenditure on AI infrastructure continues to rise. Nvidia has tied up with MediaTek again this year. The cost of computing power won't drop in the short term; miners and AI projects still have to bear hardware costs, but the demand base is becoming more stable. Second, Nvidia is transforming from a GPU seller into the definer of AI data center standards. Once NVLink Fusion becomes the industry standard, all AI chips will have to play by its rules. Standardization of computing infrastructure will reduce fragmentation costs in the long run, indirectly benefiting AI tracks and DePIN projects in the crypto space. Here is my view. The essence of this deal is not about the money but about locking in the ecosystem position. The more expensive the computing power, the stronger the AI infrastructure; Bitcoin, as the "most primitive expression of computing power," has an even stronger foundational narrative. $BTC Why can drones costing a few thousand dollars give air defense systems worth billions of dollars a headache? Many people, when first seeing counter-drone measures, might think it's just about "shooting down drones." The real issue lies in the cost. Traditional air defense systems mainly use missiles for interception. A cheap drone might only be worth a few thousand to tens of thousands of dollars, but you might have to fire a missile costing tens of thousands or even more. An occasional drone isn't a big deal, but if dozens or hundreds come at once, what might give out first isn't the air defense capability but the budget and ammunition stock. That's why the defense industry is researching how to cheaply take down drones. There are roughly three methods: radar to detect them first, electronic warfare to directly disrupt their communication and navigation, and finally, using directed energy weapons like lasers to directly burn the target. The investment logic here is easy to understand: the cheaper and more numerous the drones, the more countries need radar, electronic warfare, lasers, and counter-drone systems. In the past, air defense was about how far missiles could fly; now it also has to consider one thing: how much does it cost to shoot down a single drone.#Strategy and BitMine Increase Holdings in Sync Crypto whales keep moving: MicroStrategy announced the completion of a new round of stock issuance and continues to accumulate BTC. Meanwhile, leading mining company BitMine also announced an expansion of its Bitcoin spot reserves. Institutional buying at high levels shows real money doubling down! The synchronized increase by giants reveals three core signals: Institutional long-term logic remains unaffected by interest rate hikes: Even if there are short-term macro interest rate expectation gaps, top holding institutions still regard BTC as a strategic reserve on their balance sheets and firmly execute dollar-cost averaging strategies during pullbacks. Mining companies shift from selling coins to hoarding coins: With mining costs rising after the halving, leading miners retain spot exposure through diversified financing, reducing secondary market selling pressure and improving supply-demand fundamentals. Concentration of chips further increases: Low-cost chips in circulation are continuously withdrawn and locked in whale cold wallets, laying a strong liquidity tightening foundation for future market explosions. With giants openly going long, do you think this high-level accumulation leads the main upward wave or increases volatility risk? $BTC $MSTR #BTC #MicroStrategy #Employment data released intensively, Wash's policy stance under scrutiny This week is the "super week" for U.S. employment data, with JOLTS job openings, ADP, initial jobless claims, and August nonfarm payrolls being released intensively. This "four-hit" data directly determines the final pricing of the September FOMC. Wash turns hawkish, and the market immediately reacts. Federal Reserve Chair Wash bluntly stated in his keynote speech at Jackson Hole that current financial conditions are "hard to call restrictive," the 2% inflation target is "firm and unwavering," and if inflation does not clearly and quickly decline, the Fed "still has work to do." After the speech, the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 35% to 65.4%. A rate hike has shifted from a "low probability" to a "high probability." More importantly, Wash redefined the significance of employment data. In his view, as long as employment does not collapse, it is not a reason to avoid raising rates. Inflation is the only decisive indicator. Three scenarios for Friday's nonfarm payrolls: Employment exceeds 65,000, rate hike is basically certain, BTC under pressure; employment around 50,000, the market remains conflicted, focus shifts to next week's CPI; employment close to zero or negative, rate hike expectations cool down, BTC gets a breather. But only if employment shows a "real and significant deterioration" could it possibly stop a rate hike. For the crypto market, the biggest fear is not the rate hike itself, but uncertainty. Big money dares not take heavy positions before the boot drops. Before Friday, BTC will most likely continue to fluctuate between 77,000 and 79,500. Wait for the data to come out. Personal opinion, does not constitute any investment advice. Wow, I don't know if everyone has noticed. Gold and BTC are teaming up to fight against fiat currency depreciation, while ETH is more like a tech growth stock waiting to explode. Lately, watching the market, the movements of gold and BTC are simply "miraculously synchronized," both breaking through key levels. It's such a coincidence, like a typical "currency depreciation trade," where people notice the US dollar's credit is shaking, so they simultaneously buy these two "hard assets" to hedge risks. The data shows it clearly: in the past 5 trading days, gold ETFs and Bitcoin ETFs have collectively attracted $7 billion, flowing in parallel rather than competing for funds. This indicates institutional money is treating BTC and gold as the same asset class allocation, rather than viewing BTC as a high-risk tech stock like before. ETH's situation is completely different. Although it’s also rising, the logic leans more toward "technology applications." On August 30, Ethereum ETFs had a single-day net inflow of $226 million, a 10-month high, but this is more about optimism for its on-chain ecosystem and the potential of AI, DeFi, and other applications. My own strategy is: treat gold and BTC as "ballast stones," allocating portions of my portfolio to hedge macro risks. ETH, on the other hand, is an "offensive asset," using a small position to bet on ecosystem breakout gains. Stop mixing them up. The current market has already divided them into "safe-haven" and "growth" tracks. The allocation logic is completely different. Understanding this is the key to holding onto profits. #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 September has just started, and the real determinant of this round of market movement is no longer simply looking at the K-line, but the chain of employment data → Federal Reserve → US Treasury yields → risk asset valuations. Currently, $BTC still holds near $78,000, with an approximate 24% increase for the entire month of August, but the resistance between $79,400 and $80,800 has been continuously forming. The market's pricing for a September rate hike has clearly heated up after the hawkish tone at Jackson Hole. This week, JOLTS, ADP, and Friday's non-farm payrolls will become the next directional selectors. Strong employment means US Treasury yields may continue to rise, which is an uncomfortable environment for $BTC, $ETH, and gold; conversely, if employment cools significantly and rate hike expectations fall, the area around $77,000 could once again become a zone for capital accumulation.⁠ There is an easy-to-misjudge point here: the recent simultaneous strength of $BTC and gold does not mean they will always move in sync. Gold is more sensitive to real interest rates and safe-haven demand, while $BTC is driven by ETFs, liquidity, and risk appetite. Gold is currently oscillating near $4,400; if yields continue to rise, both may face pressure; but if employment weakens, gold and $BTC could instead resonate again.⁠ On the chart, I am now more focused on several levels: for $BTC, first watch $77,200; if it breaks below, the area near $76,000 will become a contested zone again; only by reclaiming $79,400–$80,800 can we talk about $82,000 again. $ETH is currently around $2,440, with a short-term focus on whether $2,400–$2,430 can hold. Second 📊 HYPE Contract Liquidation Express (2026-09-01) Bears fully dominate, momentum strong then weak, awaiting the ultimate nonfarm guidance Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations 1 hour $6,824.15 $1,203.21 $5,620.93 4 hours $54,700 $3,424.39 $51,200 12 hours $480,000 $130,700 $349,300 24 hours $2,210,400 $437,700 $1,772,700 In 1 hour, bears tested control with 4.67x leverage, volume under $10,000; in 4 hours, bears violently took over with 14.95x leverage, volume surged to $54,700; in 12 hours, bears moderately controlled with 2.67x leverage, volume exploded to $480,000; in 24 hours, bears closed with 4.05x leverage, liquidations $1,772,700 vs. longs $437,700, totaling $2,210,400. The 12-hour liquidations account for 21.7% of the 24-hour total, indicating concentration is low—meaning liquidation pressure mainly focused on the first half of the 24 hours (around the same period yesterday), with significant contraction in the latter half. Bear leverage moved from 4.67x → 14.95x (violent strengthening) → 2.67x (avalanche-like exhaustion) → 4.05x (slight rebound), showing an N-shaped oscillation, with short squeeze momentum rising then collapsing, and a weak late recovery. Leverage is recommended to be compressed below 3x; light positions should avoid blindly shorting. 🔥 Market Wind Vane | 2026-09-01 Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish tone faces the ultimate test from employment data; Bitcoin and gold deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation"; AI hardware returns enter a sustainability verification period. 📊 Nonfarm debuts this Friday: Can Wash's "hawk" withstand the data "blade"? At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm employment report will be released. The market expects new jobs of 58,000-65,000, previous value was -23,000; unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.1%. Just last week, Fed Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating inflation is still "too high" and "there is work to do." The market quickly pushed the September rate hike probability to 60%. However, nonfarm has been weak for three consecutive times—if this week's data weakens again, Wash's hawkish stance will face a severe test. Goldman Sachs expects August core CPI month-on-month growth around 0.2%, suggesting the FOMC will hold steady; JPMorgan emphasizes the "more important news" deciding September's meeting outcome is this week's nonfarm and next week's CPI. ₿ BTC high-level oscillation: gold linkage continues to strengthen, rate hike expectations pressure Bitcoin rose 28% cumulatively in August, once breaking $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $78,000-$79,000; spot gold also under pressure, briefly dropping below $4,450 during the session. The core logic driving the previous synchronous strength is "fiat credit revaluation"—in the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow combined. But after Wash's speech, Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows again, and a stronger dollar suppressed gold and Bitcoin. Rising rate hike expectations are short-term suppressing the upward momentum of "non-government credit assets"—but if this week's nonfarm data is weak, rate hike expectations may quickly collapse, allowing Bitcoin and gold to regain upward momentum. 🖥️ Broadcom and Dell take over: AI hardware returns face re-examination Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week. Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. The market expects total revenue around $29.4 billion, up 84% year-on-year; AI semiconductor revenue expected at $16 billion, with growth over 200% year-on-year. JPMorgan expects full-year 2026 AI revenue to exceed $56 billion. Dell will release Q2 earnings after market close on September 1. The company has $51.3 billion in AI server backlog orders, with quarterly AI orders at $24.4 billion; AI server revenue expected around $15.5 billion. But profit margin pressure is notable—AI servers typically have low margins, and the market will focus on whether the Infrastructure Solutions Group can improve its margin from 10.5%. 💎 Summary Three events paint the same picture: this Friday's nonfarm will test Wash's hawkish "work to do" stance—if employment weakens again, the 60% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation" but are short-term suppressed by rate hike expectations; Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify AI hardware return sustainability, with margin pressure becoming a new focus. Mapping to the HYPE contract market, bears used a violent 14.95x leverage to clear long leverage, but 24-hour liquidation concentration is only 21.7%, indicating large-scale liquidation pressure mainly came from the same period yesterday, not a continuous snowball spread. The N-shaped leverage trajectory reveals a key signal: bears completed a "blitzkrieg" in the 4-hour window but exhausted follow-up momentum later. The current market is not yet directionally decided but is defensively positioned before the resolution of three major uncertainties—using shorts to hedge macro and earnings uncertainties. Direction choice awaits the nonfarm release. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 $ETH is strongly bullish on a very large scale. If it doesn't give you a chance to pull back to 2200–2188 in September, that would really be a pity. $ETH's first phase target in the bull market is $3800, which depends on whether it will pull back to 2200 before rising again or just go straight up. #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 ETH current price is 2473, with the Asian session having dipped to around 2440, marking a maximum intraday drawdown close to 1%. Looking at the cycle gains, the 30-day increase is 31.8%, but the 7-day gain is only 1.9%. The monthly bullish trend remains intact, while the weekly upward momentum has clearly weakened. Reviewing the previous market action, August 19-21 was the main rally phase of this wave, with three consecutive days of significant gains. After this surge, the following eight trading days entered a low-volume consolidation. ETF trading volume shrank continuously from 107 million shares to 30.9 million shares, nearly halving twice. From the capital perspective, the ETH spot ETF has seen inflows for 11 consecutive days, with a single-day net inflow peaking at 87.7 million USD, and a cumulative net inflow of about 1.75 billion USD in August, reaching the strongest level since last October. The underlying support for the mid-term bulls remains. However, macro factors have introduced bearish pressure, with the probability of a September rate hike rising to 64%, and tightening expectations continuing to heat up, becoming the biggest headwind currently. The market is now a tug-of-war between bulls and bears: ETF continuous capital inflows bring positive momentum, while rate hike expectations combined with high-level low-volume stagnation create bearish pressure. No one-sided trend is expected today; price needs to reach the range boundaries. Combining the 4-hour Bollinger Bands indicator: middle band at 2454, upper band at 2497, lower band at 2412, with an overall large range of 2320–2566. The current price at 2475 is in the upper-middle part of the range, which is the worst position to open a position, offering no advantage for either long or short. Trading strategy 25 $UNITREE Yushù Technology has dropped from over 400 billion at release to today's 230 billion Many people may now be considering whether it will continue to decline, and whether 230 billion is too high? Because the answer is actually very clear: Based on current financial data, 230 billion is very expensive. The highest valuation given by the current evaluation agency Nomura is only 150 billion! What should really be studied is: "What can keep the 230 billion valuation sustained?" I believe there are currently 5 core supports: ① Expectations of a humanoid robot industry boom ② Yushù's advantages in motion control and body technology ③ Existing real revenue and profitability ④ Long-term imagination space of AI + robots + data closed loop ⑤ Scarcity of leading robot companies in the A-share market But at the same time, there are 4 major valuation killers: ① No explosion in robot sales ② Revenue growth significantly below market expectations ③ Lack of major customers/large-scale commercial applications ④ Competitors' technology and sales rapidly catching up Currently, the market has already fallen from 444.9 billion on the first day of listing to 230.9 billion, evaporating over 200 billion in a week, indicating that the market has actually begun to actively reprice these risks. According to TradingBeats monitoring, the trader "CBB" associated sub-account has cumulatively purchased 125,492.4 HYPE spot tokens since 00:45 today, with a transaction amount of approximately 10.5506 million USD and a weighted average price of 84.073 USD. However, while buying the spot tokens, the account also added a short position of 125,458.02 HYPE perpetual contracts in 10x cross margin mode, with a position size of about 10.5524 million USD and an average entry price of 84.111 USD. The quantities and amounts of the two legs almost completely correspond, forming an almost 1:1 spot-futures hedge. Currently, the HYPE funding rate remains positive, meaning longs pay funding fees to shorts. This account has received about 1,818.6 USD in funding fees today through the perpetual short position. This strategy also uses borrowing to amplify capital efficiency. The account has enabled portfolio margin, currently holding about 190,538 HYPE as assets, while borrowing approximately 7.56 million USDC, with a USDC balance of about negative 5.96 million USD. The main account has net transferred about 10 million USD this round, and the remaining spot exposure is mainly financed through USDC borrowing. This address is a sub-account named "2HYPE DN" under the main account 0x49e9. The main account currently holds about 15.696 million USDC and controls multiple related sub-accounts. Main account: 0x49e96e255ba418d08e66c 🚨 TONIGHT’S $BTC PUMP ISN’T ABOUT WAR — THE MARKET IS TELLING US SOMETHING BIGGER. I went back and checked the information behind tonight’s move. At first glance, it looks like a risk-off rotation, with Bitcoin breaking higher as the market treats it like “digital gold.”💎 But there’s one problem with that narrative: Gold didn’t see the same kind of capital flow.💵 So I’m not convinced this pump is sim because of the so-called To get straight to the point: US military airstrikes on Iran, oil prices soaring, US stocks plummeting, yet $BTC actually rose. This is not a coincidence; it marks the turning point where BTC shifts from a risk asset to a safe-haven asset. Last Friday, the US military launched airstrikes on Iran, oil prices jumped, and S&P futures turned green. Normally, risk assets should fall along with this. But what about BTC? It pulled back from 77,000 to 78,500, up 1.5%. ETH rose even more, and SOL is also climbing. The total crypto market cap reached 2.73 trillion, up 1.7% in one day. Did you notice another signal? At the Jackson Hole symposium, hawkish comments pushed the September rate hike probability from 35% to 55.5%. Normally, a higher rate hike probability would cause BTC to fall. But BTC held steady at 78,000. The fact that bearish rate hike expectations couldn’t push it down means what? It means the buying pressure underneath is much stronger than you think. Those who bottomed out at 77,000 on the day of the airstrike are already counting their money today. Those still waiting for 75,000 might not get that chance. The market never gives you a comfortable entry point; it always rises when you hesitate and crashes when you chase highs. At the 78,000 level, building a position in batches makes perfect sense. Half a position allows you to attack or defend, and keep the remaining ammo for the mid-September pullback. Don’t believe me? Just wait. If BTC is still below 78,000 by the end of September, come to the comments and curse me. #BTC #IranAirstrike #SafeHaven #RateHike After waiting for more than a year for the X Layer ecosystem incentives, the first round of rewards delivered was only 120,000 U, which starkly contrasts with the initially promised 5 million U prize pool and the grand RWA narrative. The motivation for new funds to enter is weak, while old funds remain inactive. The community has started taking screenshots to preserve data, preparing for a 1:1 migration to other chains. This "all bark and no bite" implementation approach has shaken even the originally steadfast internal supporters. I still hold XDOG, and seeing other communities gradually withdraw, the most agonizing dilemma is whether to leave or stay: leaving means over a year of construction and pool maintenance goes to waste, while staying might mean holding onto a chain losing users, waiting for an uncertain spring. Objectively, OKX has users, funds, and mature products, yet only offers Meme rewards at the 100,000 U level. Compared to Binance nurturing BSC and Coinbase supporting Base, this indeed seems insincere. Now the community votes with their feet, and the project team’s choice to migrate is a survival instinct, which is understandable. But where XDOG ultimately goes—whether to stay or seek another path—remains unclear and requires observing official follow-up actions. If there is no positive response soon, I will seriously consider exchanging XDOG and some OKB for a more active ecosystem. Risk warning: On-chain ecosystem rewards and migration plans are uncertain; please make independent judgments and manage position risks. $XDOG $OKB 【GOOG drops to 335, why wait despite cloud business surge?】 Conclusion: Alphabet's fundamentals remain strong; the pullback is due to oil prices and long-term bonds pressuring valuation, not weakening AI demand; positioned as a "defensive with an offensive tilt," no orders near 335 for now. Keywords: Search advertising, Google Cloud, Gemini, TPU, capital expenditure. Fundamentals: Alphabet fuels AI with search traffic and advertising cash cow, then competes for cloud computing power with self-developed TPU, data centers, and developer ecosystem. Q2 revenue $119.8B, up 24% YoY; search revenue up 17%; Cloud revenue $24.8B, up 82%; cloud business operating profit $8.8B, margin 35.6%; but single-quarter capex $44.9B, turning free cash flow to -$5.9B. Advantages are global distribution entry points, data, and full-stack AI; biggest risks are antitrust, AI answers eroding search monetization, and delayed return on investment. Next catalysts to watch: September Goldman Sachs conference, Q3 cloud growth, and TPU external sales realization. Technicals: GOOG closed at $335.41, down 2.18%; 335 is only for strength/weakness observation; hold and reclaim 345 to consider recovery, if lost then watch 320, touching does not equal buying. Memory point: GOOG is not lacking growth now, but needs to prove AI capex can sustainably convert to cash flow. #谷歌AI高层重组，核心人才流失引关注 $GOOGL $xGOOGL For research record only, not investment advice $CORE CORE project, from the highly anticipated "Bitcoin ecosystem pearl" to its current state, is no coincidence. It made poor choices at almost every key node, ultimately causing the price to collapse from a high of $6.47 to around $0.02, a drop of 99.8%. It can be said that the project team itself has gradually pushed CORE into the abyss. · Failed token economy: this can be called the deadliest "original sin." A total of 2.1 billion tokens may seem to benchmark Bitcoin, but the 81-year release cycle means endless selling pressure. Early large tokens allocated to teams, institutions, and nodes have unlocked cycles lasting decades, and the market is always worried that "tomorrow there will be another massive amount of free tokens to dump." At the same time, the high concentration of chips turned retail investors into counterparties to whale sales, resulting in a long-term imbalance between supply and demand. Disastrous ecosystem operations: The project team used CORE token inflation subsidies to maintain the returns of its core product lstBTC. This "left foot steps on the right" model naturally collapsed after the token crash. Worse still, they handed over the ecosystem's lifeblood to partner Maple Finance, only to be "betrayed" by Maple Finance using confidential information to develop competing products. Although user assets were later protected through legal injunctions and settlements, this dispute severely drained market confidence. · Hollowed-out narrative: In the early days, grand concepts like "binding Bitcoin hash power" and "BTCFi" attracted large numbers of retail investors. But the ecosystem remained hollowed out for a long time, and no real products were generated on-chain After Nvidia's earnings report landed, the AI infrastructure baton was passed to Broadcom, Dell, and Snowflake. These three companies represent three different segments: custom AI chips, AI server systems, and cloud data software — tonight we'll see who is truly making money and who is just telling stories. --- $AVGO Broadcom (after market close on September 2) Broadcom is the leader in the custom AI chip (ASIC) track, holding large orders from cloud providers like Google and Meta. Last quarter, AI semiconductor revenue was $10.8 billion, up 143% year-over-year, accounting for 49% of total revenue. Market expectations for this quarter's revenue are about $29.4 billion, up 84% year-over-year, with AI semiconductor sales guidance at $1.6 billion. My judgment: Broadcom is very likely to deliver a strong earnings report, but the stock price may react mildly. The market has already fully priced in strong growth in AI chips; only an upside surprise will boost the stock, meeting expectations will be bearish. --- $DELL Dell (after market close on September 1) Dell is the leader in AI server systems. Market expectations are revenue around $44.9 billion, up 51% year-over-year, EPS about $4.92, doubling year-over-year. The options market is betting on about 10% stock price volatility after the earnings report. Dell previously set a $60 billion AI server revenue target. My judgment: Dell has the largest expectation gap among the three. AI server demand is indeed booming, but the market worries about margin compression — selling complete systems has much lower profit margins than selling chips. If gross margin beats expectations, Dell could be the biggest surprise; if it falls short, the decline could be the steepest.A single pawn crossing the river blocks the Strait of Hormuz, and New York oil prices respond with a jump—this is not a local skirmish, but the opening of Wang Yi's offensive. I sit before the chessboard, my gaze passing through Brent's price curve. The real money makers don’t take it step by step; twenty moves ago, I had already calculated this step: US military strike, Iranian retaliation, Saudi oil tanker intercepted in the southern route—although Saudi Arabia has not confirmed it, the market has already confirmed its judgment through price fluctuations. Brent rises to $90.49, up 2.71%, this knight’s leap directly shatters the illusion of calm in energy. The real danger on the chessboard is never the visible attack, but the unseen restraint. The oil tanker disruption is not an isolated pawn—it links freight rates, pulls inflation; these scattered pieces eventually twist into a line of restraint. Energy inflation is the black bishop, diagonally targeting BTC’s position. When the bishop exerts force, the offensive inside the royal castle can only contract. $xMSTR is like the pawn chain on the rear wing, trembling slightly under the thrust of crude oil; it does not alone decide victory or defeat, but determines when the pawn chain breaks. Many players only look at the next three moves: who won the conflict? How much more can oil prices rise? But my job is not to guess riddles, but to calculate the remaining moves of the entire game. The degree of damage to oil tanker transport directly determines whether the midgame is open or closed. If this route remains blocked, players will be forced to accept a closed midgame—all active pieces must be redeployed, which is a completely different endgame. At that time, BTC’s bottom is no longer technical support, but the countdown on the chess clock. The 17 oil fields of the US and Venezuela are a long king castling move. It requires long-term investment to restore the speed of piece deployment, but the chess clock waits for no one. Every additional trapped oil tanker drops a drop of time on the clock. Venezuela’s production capacity is like a pawn that cannot promote in time; distant water cannot put out nearby fire. From the center of the chessboard, this oil tanker route is the open d-file. Whoever occupies it controls the whole game. Continuous transport interruptions are equivalent to the opponent’s heavy pieces gathering on the d-file, suffocating one’s own formation. Thus, originally quiet pieces like energy, food, and metals begin to stir, and crypto assets, as the most sensitive rear wing, are the first to be drawn out. BTC holders are like pieces defending in low light; every move must be especially precise. Saudi Arabia’s unconfirmed interception may be a bluff or may be real. Grandmasters know well that the most dangerous moves often start with unconfirmed rumors. The opponent’s retaliation is not the endgame, but a midgame transition. If Brent holds above $90, the dollar and oil will form a linked knight, advancing together. At that time, the risk asset sacrifice game will be on the table—you can choose not to take a stance, but the chessboard will not lie. This is not checkmate, but the beginning of a long check—when the oil tanker flags fall on both sides, the king and queen pieces will both be stained with the color of crude oil. #oiltankerriskliftsoil Is BTC unable to break through 79,000? The core resistance comes from the macro level. The Fed Chair's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole reignited expectations for a rate hike in September. This directly offset the liquidity boost previously brought by Treasury buybacks. At the same time, the big surge in August accumulated substantial profit-taking. Above 80,000 is a key supply zone. A very strong spot buying force is needed for an effective breakout. Currently, the market is digesting these pressures through consolidation. $ETH fundamentals are "disconnected" from price. Ethereum is performing weaker. It broke below $2,400 to a new phase low. Its exchange rate relative to Bitcoin is also under continuous pressure. The core issue is it is facing an "adoption paradox." On-chain activity and Layer 2 transaction volumes are hitting new highs. But a large amount of activity has migrated to Layer 2, resulting in extremely low mainnet gas fees (0.1-0.2 Gwei). ETH's value as "digital crude oil" for consumption and capture is severely weakened. Therefore, the recent rebound is more of a short-covering after overselling rather than new incremental capital entering. The ecosystem's prosperity has not effectively translated into price support. $SNDK has performed best recently, rising 5.5%. US stocks surged then retreated. AI storage remains a major trend. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 When that construction log was spread out on my desk, I immediately saw the cracks on the blueprint—Strategy used equity issuance as mortar to brick together 845.1K BTC into a skyscraper with no visible top, but forgot that every floor slab was inscribed with the word "dilution." The foundation pit was dug deep enough. The incremental 460 units were just the concrete this developer dug up in the stock market to lay the foundation. The secret of this building lies in the fact that the main beams come from stock issuance, and the load-bearing walls come from the market's fantasy of rising coin prices. Any qualified chief engineer can see this is not a brick-and-concrete structure; it’s a house of cards. And the 5.9011M ETH holdings below are like a massive steel structure tower—nearly four-fifths of the components are pre-embedded in the staking pile cap, with an annualized yield of about $335 million, settled weekly, like a pile foundation equipped with an automatic grouting machine, making this tower stand firmer in wind and rain. But there is no construction plan here that doesn’t require a price to be paid. The market linkage is like the wind tunnel effect between two adjacent supertall buildings: when an annual report is disclosed, all curtain wall glass vibrates synchronously. What you see is the hot sale of the foundation by institutions; what I see is the equity bubble mixed in every square meter of steel content. The gap between stock price and net asset keeps widening, like the silicone at curtain wall joints rapidly aging under scorching sun and freezing rain. This building complex lights up after opening, but remember, if the developer ultimately can only maintain cash flow by issuing new shares, then the so-called "increase in holdings" is just dismantling the poured floor slab to pour another building. And although the staked ETH tower offers stable returns, it shares only a narrow corridor with the BTC skyscraper’s basement—that thinnest prestressed steel cable called volatility. The entire block is opening. The neon sign saying "BTC breaks five-month downtrend," the colorful flag of "US-Iran oil market impact," and the LED screen of "Fear and Greed Index" all hang on the steel facade of these two new buildings, flickering in the wind. But professionals only look at the footing and settlement monitoring points—where the load limits are written, where tensile strain is recorded, and where the construction worker least wants to write in the supervision log: The floor of this building is someone else’s ceiling. And is this building’s ceiling just the lifting height for another round of equity issuance construction? #cryptotreasurybuying August was brutal for A-shares; the Shanghai Composite only rose 4% after a whole month of grinding, and the median stock gain was just 6.5%. Meanwhile, in the crypto world, $BTC surged from 62,000 USD to 79,000 USD in a week [reference:4][reference:5], with a single day seeing 3 billion USD liquidated and 180,000 people wiped out directly [reference:6]. Stocks can be stuck but you can pretend to wait it out, while in crypto futures, one sudden spike and your account turns into an inheritance in three minutes. $ETH can jump 19% in a day, but also give back more than half of that in the same day. This $BTC push to 80,000 was driven by Trump's shoutout plus a short squeeze, which is completely different from the valuation repair in A-shares. If you lose money in stocks, blame the market, if you lose in crypto, you can only blame your own reckless leverage. Don't ask me how I know.Michael Saylor's Strategy just bought $369.7 Million worth of Bitcoin, his first buy in over 2 months. Saylor is back. $BTC Up 24% in August, but I'm not worried. Reason: The open interest in perpetual contracts is at its lowest since May, and leveraged longs have almost been completely cleaned out. This round is driven by ETF and spot buying, not a bubble. However, last Friday saw an ETF outflow of 200 million, and the 82,000 level was rejected three times. The probability of a Fed rate hike is close to 64%. Friday's non-farm payrolls are the watershed— Poor data → bullish for BTC, pushing to 82,000 Good data → bearish for BTC, pulling back to 77,000 It's not that I'm afraid to act now, it's just not worth the gamble. I'll wait for the data before making a move; entering a bit late but with more certainty. #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $BTC $BTC The first week of September is likely to be a weak consolidation phase. Don't expect a one-sided surge, but also don't panic sell. The core of the bulls vs. bears battle is the tug-of-war between the macro interest rate hikes and institutional capital inflows. 📉 Core pressure: The shadow of Fed rate hikes At the end of August, Fed Chair Powell hawkishly spoke at Jackson Hole, pushing market expectations for a September rate hike to 57%. Coupled with the US 10-year Treasury yield soaring to around 4.78%, and oil prices breaking above $91, this is definitely the biggest short-term bearish factor for liquidity-supported risk assets. 📈 Bullish confidence: Institutions are supporting the bottom Bitcoin closed August with a 25.28% monthly gain, forming a strong bullish candle. This rally was mainly driven by spot buying, not leveraged positions. Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw nearly $1 billion in net inflows, and Ethereum investment products had 10 consecutive days of net inflows. Simply put: rate hike expectations are suppressing gains, but institutions are stepping in to prevent a big drop. Key levels to watch Upside: 80,000 is the first hurdle, 81,500 is strong resistance Downside: 77,000-77,500 is the first support, 75,000 is the lifeline of the mid-term trend Core consolidation range: 74,000-82,800 The market is waiting for the Fed meeting on September 15, which will be the decisive moment for direction. In terms of strategy, either wait for the price to pull back to 76,000-76,500 to lightly test long positions, or wait for a volume breakout above 80,000 to follow on the right side. The middle ground is a gamble; don't force it Anthropic's prospectus is planned to be disclosed, and the AI unicorn is finally moving from legend to spreadsheet What I most want to see is not the valuation, nor the fundraising story, but three very specific things: inference cost, enterprise customer retention, and cloud vendor lock-in. AI companies can talk about a "huge future" in the primary market, but the public market will break down every dollar of revenue and every dollar of compute cost This will make a lot of the hype awkward If model capabilities keep getting stronger, but each delivery consumes more expensive compute, more expensive talent, and more complex security costs, then the valuation cannot rely solely on "everyone will use AI." What the IPO really needs to verify is whether the model company is capturing the fattest slice of the value chain or the hardest slice #Anthropic：IPO新进展，招股书拟9月公开 $XAU 【Small target 1000, currently +460 ongoing】 Gold price has moved away from the accelerated trend of the past few days and has now returned to a familiar weak consolidation state. The second buy-up opportunity is supported at 4418-22; the lowest midday price reached 24 but did not enter the market. Subsequent plan remains unchanged: continue to monitor the sustained support buy-up opportunity at 4418-22 and the sustained resistance sell-down opportunity at 4448-55.The first wave of smooth upward movement for $BTC has most likely ended. From a low of 58K to a high of 82K, the total increase exceeded 40%. On the 4-hour timeframe, momentum is starting to weaken. My personal plan is to begin adding Sell Call positions in September, with strike prices mainly set between 80K-82K. As September comes to a close, the exchange should release long-term options expiring next September, providing an opportunity to supplement with LEAPS Calls for one year out.

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