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BTC and ETH are still consolidating, but the real steering wheel has been handed over to the US employment data
Warsch's hawkish logic is clear: inflation is not returning to 2% fast enough, and as long as employment does not deteriorate significantly, the Fed still has room to tighten further.
The latest JOLTS report has already submitted its results: 7.271 million job openings, but hires dropped to 5.054 million, while layoffs actually decreased. In other words, US employment is cooling down but has not yet reached a "collapse" level.
As a result, the market continues to increase hawkish bets, with the probability of a September rate hike rising to about 68%, and the dollar and US Treasury yields strengthening in tandem.
Next up, ADP, initial jobless claims, and Friday's nonfarm payrolls will be the real stress tests.
**If employment remains stable:** the probability of a rate hike may surge to even higher levels, increasing the pressure on BTC at 80,000;
**If employment slows significantly:** Warsch's assessment of a "stable labor market" will be weakened, and hawkish bets could quickly reverse.
So it’s not surprising that BTC is consolidating around 78,000 and ETH near 2,450.
Now is not the time to guess bull or bear, but to wait for the data to decide: whether this round of tightening expectations will continue to increase or face the first real reversal. $BTC #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #BTC pullback from highs, gold linkage under test
As the September rate hike expectations climb above 66%, BTC has fallen below the $80,000 mark, while spot gold and XAUT have also simultaneously dropped over 1.2%. The previously high correlation of both rising and falling together is now facing a new scrutiny under the pressure of high interest rates.
The dual pullback reveals a shift in large capital's risk-hedging logic:
Valuation hammer from rising risk-free yields: As U.S. Treasury yields turn upward, the no-yield assets gold and the high-risk elastic BTC both suffer from the surge in risk-free discount rates, quickly squeezing out liquidity premiums.
Divergence in capital attributes emerges: Gold price adjustments are more about central banks' phased profit-taking from gold purchases, whereas BTC is hit more severely by derivative high-leverage liquidations and short-term profit cash-outs.
Resilience of key support: Spot buying for BTC around $76,000–$78,000 remains resilient. As long as ETF fund flows do not show systemic deterioration, wide-range oscillations and washouts are still within a healthy scope.
Do you think this round of BTC and gold correlated pullback is a retracement to pick up buyers, or a risk warning under the tightening cycle?
$BTC $XAU #BTC #gold #macroeconomics #cryptocurrency #assetallocation#财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒
Dell's earnings exceeded expectations, surging over 6%, and Broadcom also turned positive simultaneously. After NVIDIA's earnings release, the AI computing hardware relay race officially moves downstream to complete machines and customized design stages. Wall Street's confidence in AI commercial returns has seen a phased recovery.
This round of earnings reveals three major industry trends:
AI server demand remains strong: The explosive growth in Dell server orders directly shatters rumors of downstream cloud providers slowing capital expenditures. The enterprise side's arms race for AI infrastructure is still accelerating.
Customized ASIC moat remains solid: Broadcom, as the core partner for Google's TPU and Meta's chips, maintains very high visibility in its networking and ASIC business, confirming the irreversible trend of cloud giants developing their own chips.
Hardware gross margin competition enters deep waters: Despite the surge in shipments, under the squeeze of expensive upstream GPUs and component costs, how OEMs of complete machines maintain gross margins will be the core of a long-term battle.
Do you favor Broadcom's customized chip ecosystem or Dell's volume elasticity as a server complete machine giant?
$DELL $AVGO $NVDA Oil prices have cornered the global bond market, how much longer can BTC hold at 77,000? Brent crude oil at $96.18. Up 4.5% in two days, up 51% year-to-date. The US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.798%, the highest since January 2025. The Japanese 10-year government bond yield is 3%, the first time since October 1996. Bitcoin at $76,454, down 2.4% in 24 hours. Four events happened on the same day. US-Iran conflict reignites → Strait of Hormuz tensions → oil prices surge violently (above $96) → inflation expectations rise across the board → global bond markets crash simultaneously (German, UK, Japanese, and US bond yields all soar) → Fed rate hike probability jumps from over 30% to 66% → non-interest assets come under full pressure → BTC falls below 77,000. With geopolitical conflict breaking out, Bitcoin’s "safe haven" attribute should have kicked in, right? So what happened? Oil prices rose, BTC fell. Why? Because the market is not trading "safe haven" now, it’s trading "rate hikes." Oil prices surge → inflation heats up → Fed must raise rates → funds withdraw from risk assets → BTC is treated as a risk asset and sold off together. Bitcoin’s "safe haven narrative" is nothing in the face of "rate hike expectations." German 10-year bond yields soar to the highest since 2011. UK 10-year bond yields soar to the highest since 2008. Japanese 10-year bond yields soar to the highest since 1996.Let's talk about ETH's upgrade this year: Glamsterdam
First change accounting, then throughput; the upgrade changes the block production method, validation method, and Gas billing.
The Glamsterdam mainnet is scheduled for Q4 2026. The testnet Platåberget has already forked, and Sepolia is expected around the end of September. The real changes are threefold.
ePBS writes block production auction into the protocol: proposers only select the payload header, the slot no longer needs to run full execution, and PTC monitors the builder's block submission. Slots are pipelined, giving validators the capacity to process larger blocks. BAL enforces providing the full block read-write set, making parallel execution and state root calculation valid.
More concretely, there is dual-dimensional gas. EIPs 8037/8038 separate "building new state" from execution gas, charging about 1530 gas/byte separately. Transfers to existing addresses still cost about 21,000; transfers to addresses never on-chain before will incur nearly 180,000 extra state-gas. Wallets and contracts hardcoded to 21,000 and recognizing only a single gas dimension will break—this is the physical reason EF warns about.
The 200 million gas target is a design goal, not a fork-day switch, and requires validator tiered voting. Without dual-dimensional pricing, larger blocks will only cause state bloat.
In summary, transfers between old addresses feel unchanged; transfers to new addresses cost more, and $ETH gas consumption will increase. #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August recorded 54.6, showing a slowdown but still in expansion territory; July JOLTS job openings at 7.27 million were slightly below expectations but rebounded compared to June. Manufacturing is slowing but employment has not collapsed, and this data divergence has directly pushed the CME's probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September to around 66%.
Before tomorrow night’s August nonfarm payroll report is released, market competition is highly tense:
The ultimate verdict on rate hike expectations: If the labor market only cools moderately without crashing, it will firmly confirm the Fed's hawkish anti-inflation stance, making a September rate hike almost certain.
Rising discount rates continue to apply pressure: Rising rate expectations push up US Treasury yields and the US dollar index, creating a real liquidity headwind for the US stock and crypto markets, which are at high valuation levels.
Breaking free from single-indicator thinking: Currently, core capital trading is not about slight deviations in single-month figures, but about the overall restructuring of global major asset valuation systems under tightening macro-financial conditions.
Do you think tomorrow night’s nonfarm payrolls will break the rate hike expectations to save the market, or will it directly deliver a decisive blow to hawkish tightening?
$BTC $SPX $TLT #FederalReserve #Nonfarm #RateHike #Macroeconomics #MarketAnalysis$SNDK Why did the US stock market fall last night? Let's calmly talk it through.
The Nasdaq dropped another 1% last night, with tech stocks getting hit the hardest.
On the surface, it looks like the US and Iran clashed, oil prices surged 5%, and inflation expectations were ignited. But what really shook the market was what Walsh said.
The message was straightforward: if inflation doesn't come down, I'll keep tightening, don't expect me to go easy. The market broke out in a cold sweat after hearing this—the probability of a rate hike in September soared to 68%.
To be honest:
Many panic at the mention of rate hikes and shout crash when there's war. But the worst thing in trading is to be led by the news.
Will the rate hike really come? Not necessarily.
The CPI data on the 11th is the real judgment day—if the data is strong, the hike is certain; if soft, there's still room to breathe. The Fed always "talks tough" first, pumping up expectations; if they don't hike in the end, it could actually be a positive surprise.
How long can the 5% oil price surge last? Geopolitical-driven price spikes come fast and go fast. The Middle East situation will fade after a couple of days of hype.
Look at the market these days, jumping around like it's having a fit, showing that big money itself has no clear direction and both bulls and bears are probing.
What to do next?
Wait for the CPI data on the 11th. Before that, the market will likely just swing wildly, up one day and down the next.
Reduce positions, don't bet heavily on one side. Don't get too caught up on either bulls or bears; the direction will be clear once the data is out.
In this kind of market, whoever stays steady survives well. Surviving longer is much more important than making quick profits. #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注 Seeing #Robinhood Chain so popular, I feel quite emotional. Thinking back to the days of #SOL and L2
Back then, public chains were likened to highways. Unexpectedly, even though the roads were built and multiplied, the cars disappeared, resulting in a strange phenomenon of wide roads but sparse traffic.
Looking at it now, the core question is which came first, the chicken or the egg.
The old public chains were about building highway land, attracting capital and users, constructed for future demand. Now looking back, it’s purely about jealousy, having a dumpling with vinegar, which feels a bit awkward.
Robinhood is smart, bringing existing users, capital, demand, and mature technology directly to build, buying vinegar to eat dumplings, which feels well matched.
Back then, sol claimed to be supported by Wall Street capital, but now in Wall Street’s eyes, it is indeed the preferred public chain for combining crypto and traditional finance.
However, Robinhood was born directly in Rome, immediately defined as the exclusive public chain for traditional finance to deploy assets on the blockchain.
It’s fate and timing. Obviously, crypto used to rely on hype and narrative, but now it’s about whether it can solve problems, whether the market has demand, and whether the business logic can be implemented and generate cash flow!$SNDK Why did the US stock market drop last night? Let's calmly talk about it.
Last night, the Nasdaq fell 1%, with tech stocks taking the hardest hit.
On the surface, it looks like a US-Iran conflict, oil prices surged 5%, and inflation expectations were immediately ignited. But the real powder keg was those few words from Walsh.
The meaning is, if inflation doesn't come down, I'll keep tightening, don't expect me to go easy.
The market was directly scared out of its wits, with the probability of a September rate hike soaring to 68%.
Many people panic at the mention of a rate hike and shout crash at the mention of war. But the worst thing in trading is to be led by the news.
A rate hike may not necessarily come.
The CPI data on the 11th is the real judgment day; if the data is strong, a rate hike is nailed down; if the data is weak, there’s still room to breathe. The Fed always talks tough first, pumping up expectations, and if they don’t actually hike, it will be treated as a positive.
How long the 5% oil price surge can last is still unknown; geopolitically driven price hikes come fast and go fast. This Middle East issue will probably calm down after a couple of days of hype.
Institutions are guessing too; you can see the market jumping around these days, big money itself has no direction.
Next, we wait for the CPI data on the 11th. Before that, the market will just swing up and down, rising one day and falling the next.
Reduce positions, don’t bet heavily on one side. Don’t get carried away on either long or short; the direction will only become clear once the data lands. #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注 #OilTankerRiskLiftsOil moved from production to transportation. Brent above $90 matters because even available barrels become expensive when tankers face disruption, insurance costs rise and shipping routes tighten.
Venezuela can't quickly fill that gap either. If transport risk persists, freight and fuel costs can spread inflation far beyond crude itself.
That's where BTC gets tested. An energy shock may support the inflation-hedge story, but higher yields and tighter liquidity can hit.If a coin's name is simply "useless," but it rises from 0.033 all the way to 0.12, should you laugh at it, or at yourself? Have you ever momentarily thought to a stock that you know is a bubble, thinking, "I'll just do one wave and then leave," but honestly placed a short position? What I want to talk about today is not the $USELESS itself, but the very typical knockoff sentiment behind it: the more ridiculous it seems, the more people rush in to gamble; The more you know it's the top area, the more people want to sell at the highest point. In this kind of game, the real profiteers are never the most accurate judges, but those who can bear the cost of capital. What I see is that the rhythm of this knockoff is very different from last year. Last year, many coins fell in decline; if you buy slowly and spread slowly, there will always be a rebound that gives you a chance to break even. Now it's different. Many small coins are directly cut off, like $XAN being delisted, $XPL dropping 99%, and $IP hitting zero. This trend shows one thing: the market's margin for error is decreasing, and funds are no longer willing to pay for junk time. The perspective of cross-market linkage is especially worth examining now. As long as BTC holds sideways and ETH moves slightly, altcoins dare to tell their own stories; But once BTC shows hourly spikes, altcoins often drop three to five times more than BTC. What does this mean? It means that Altcoin's pricing power now is not in their own hands, but in Bitcoin's volatility. No matter how much fundamentals you study, it's better to focus on BTC's funding costsI wonder if anyone has noticed a subtle change: the voices shouting about the last dip in the market are gradually decreasing.
BTC and ETH remain fragile on the charts. Despite the sharp fluctuations caused by news between the US and Iran, there has been no complete crash. One signal worth noting: the price movements of BTC, ETH, and gold are becoming increasingly similar, with their correlation strengthening and gradually detaching from the influence of US stock market fluctuations. Even though gold's market size far exceeds that of crypto, the narrative shift in assets has quietly taken place.
On the fundamentals side, positive factors are still present. BTC and ETH ETFs continue to see capital inflows, institutional spot buying is increasing, and there is clear expectation for legislation to be enacted.
However, all these positives cannot outweigh the power of interest rate hike expectations, which remain the biggest Damocles sword hanging over the market.
Currently, we are in a chaotic phase of bulls and bears battling, with news driving the market more than technical trends. Before major data releases, repeated market oscillations will be the norm. We might as well patiently wait and observe whether the market can produce a decisive candlestick that provides a clear direction.
$ETH $BTC $XAU
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 Bitcoin starts to face continuous pressure
Recently, you really can't just think about bottom-fishing
$BTC has already returned to around $77,400 today, with the entire crypto market's 24-hour market cap dropping nearly 4%.
I've been reminding to pay attention to ETF fund changes recently, and now there's another signal worth watching:
In the latest trading day, BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $35.3 million again.
However, over the past 7 days, there is still a net inflow exceeding $1.1 billion, so it can't be directly defined as institutional withdrawal yet.
The real trouble is the external environment.
Oil prices are rising, US Treasury yields are climbing, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September are heating up again. This environment itself will suppress risk assets like BTC.
So now I am a bit more cautious about BTC than at the end of August.
77,000 is the first line of defense.
If it holds here and recovers back above 80,000, I still consider it a high-level shakeout.
If ETFs continue to see outflows and 77,000 doesn't hold, then this round of correction may go further down.
$BTC #BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 SanDisk's recent peak escape had me watching the market and laughing for a long time. That feeling of "just stepping back from the cliff edge" is sweeter than eating candy🫧 Have you ever had such a moment—where the price is still falling, but you just know that at that point, it's time to go? Today, SanDisk dipped to a low of 1511, and I exited in batches at 1512 and 1513. Looking back, there was indeed a thin layer of support around 1500, but the whole day's movement was "drop a bit, sideways a bit, drop again, sideways again," a sticky, sluggish rhythm with no desire for a volume-driven rebound. This kind of movement is most dangerous when you greedily hold out for the last bit of profit and end up stuck inside. I chose to clear out before the US market opened, not because I was bearish, but because "uncertainty" itself is already a risk. Just because it doesn't fall during the day doesn't mean it won't at night. When the US market opens, the direction will truly be revealed. Entering then is much more comfortable than guessing blindly now. This trade added another entry to my ledger with a 95% win rate, but honestly, I'm happy not because of how much I earned, but because of the reassuring feeling of "market intuition being validated." What is the market really trading now? It's not SanDisk itself, but a re-pricing of the AI return cycle. Broadcom and Dell are about to report earnings, and the market's patience regarding "whether investments can translate into profits" is thinning. Any slight disturbance could cause funds to withdraw from hardware stocks to seek safety. - Bullish path: If US market sentiment holds steady tonight, SanDisk will pull back to 15 SanDisk is gaining strength again
The AI storage market may not be over yet
$SNDK has recently seen a return of capital, with intraday gains exceeding 5% on the previous trading day. This is not just due to the renewed hype around AI concepts; enterprise-grade SSDs are entering a new phase of volume expansion.
What the market is truly trading now is the storage demand driven by AI and the tight supply of NAND. Mizuho still rates SanDisk as Outperform, with a target price slightly lowered from $1900 to $1875, but expects SanDisk's earnings to potentially grow about 5 times from fiscal years 2026 to 2028.
Moreover, SanDisk and Kioxia just announced plans to invest approximately $31 billion in Japan by 2032 to expand flash memory production capacity.
I previously mentioned that this level is a good point to take some profits, mainly because the gains this year have been quite exaggerated.
But in the long term, AI's demand for storage is far from over.
SanDisk's biggest issue now is not fundamentals, but that good assets have already been priced very expensively by the market.
$SNDK There is no longer a so-called "altcoin season" in the crypto space.
The market has never lacked newcomers, nor has it ever lacked capital.
Capital is fluid. As long as the crypto space continues to create wealth effects, new capital will keep flowing in.
But where will the money flow in the future?
The answer is becoming clearer:
After institutionalization, capital will only become more concentrated.
The assets that can truly receive long-term institutional allocation are likely BTC, ETH, and a very few mainstream assets, no more than ten.
So my position logic has always been simple:
90% ETH, 10% allocated to SOL, UNI, and other secondary mainstream assets.
Why prioritize ETH even over BTC?
Because the E/B exchange rate has already given the answer.
The long-term structure I understand, institutions obviously understand as well. If ETH’s odds relative to BTC are higher over the next 2–3 years, then from a capital efficiency perspective, there’s no need to hold two highly correlated assets simultaneously; instead, concentrate the core position on ETH with the higher odds.
As for the so-called "altcoins" and "altcoin season," these are increasingly outdated concepts.
Five years ago, the era when small investors could get rich quick by speculating on altcoins did exist.
But the market structure has changed.
If today you still put the vast majority of your positions on the so-called "altcoin season," waiting for funds to rotate there automatically after BTC and ETH rise, you are more likely to face continuous new lows rather than sudden wealth.
Newcomers will leave.
But don’t worry about the crypto space lacking people.
The market will never lack the next batch of newcomers, nor will it ever lack the next influx of capital. $SOL fell back to $100
I actually started paying attention again
SOL followed the entire crypto market's pullback today, once dropping near $100, with a 24-hour decline of over 3%.
But this month, SOL has a very important catalyst.
Solana's Alpenglow upgrade has entered the activation phase, currently planned to launch on September 28. One of the biggest changes in this upgrade is further improving Solana's confirmation speed and consensus mechanism.
Plus, with the earlier inflation reduction proposal passed, SOL is actually improving two issues at the same time:
The network is getting faster, and the new coin supply growth is slowing down.
So near $100, I wouldn't be bearish just because of a one-day pullback.
If BTC can stabilize again later, I think SOL, as a large-cap alt with ETF funds, upgrade catalysts, and supply improvements, will still be a coin worth watching in September.
$SOL $BTC Just took a look at CME FedWatch: the Fed's rate hike probability has surged to 68%, up from less than 40% a week ago.
Current impact on global assets:
US Treasuries: The policy-sensitive 2-year yield has risen significantly (once near or above 4.34%), the 10-year yield climbed to about 4.75%–4.79%, hitting a multi-month high. The short end usually rises more than the long end, flattening the curve, reflecting the market pricing in near-term hikes while some believe the anti-inflation resolve may lower forward inflation premiums.
US Stocks: On September 1, the three major indices closed down, with the Dow down about 0.8%, the S&P 500 about 0.7%, and the Nasdaq about 1%. Growth and tech stocks, more sensitive to discount rates, were under greater pressure. Rising yields increase corporate financing costs and depress forward earnings valuations.
US Dollar: Strengthened, putting pressure on other currencies.
Gold and Crypto Assets: Gold fell significantly from highs (dropping over 3% on the day of Powell's speech, then continuing to weaken), and Bitcoin also came under pressure simultaneously. Rising real rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Crude Oil: Often rises due to geopolitical conflicts, which in turn reinforces inflation concerns, creating a "oil price–inflation expectations–rate hike pricing" feedback loop.
The market reaction has already priced in the September rate hike. In the next two weeks, attention will focus on nonfarm payroll and CPI data. If inflation and employment remain strong, the probability of a September hike could rise further above 80%; if they cool significantly, it may return to a roughly 50-50 chance or even lower. Bitcoin Is Weak. But The Market Is Starting To Rotate Beneath The Surface.
$BTC is still struggling below $80K.
And the latest ETF data makes the setup even more interesting.
Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded about $236.5M in net outflows on September 1, reversing the $216.7M inflow from the previous session.
At first glance, that looks bearish.
But I’m not convinced the entire market is simply exiting crypto.
September is showing something different.
The institutional ETF market is becoming much broader, with products tied to $ETH, $SOL and $XRP now competing for capital alongside Bitcoin. 2
And that changes how I’m reading the current weakness.
$ETH is sitting near the $2.4K area while Bitcoin struggles to reclaim $80K.
$SOL is especially interesting because U.S. spot Solana ETFs recorded fresh inflows as September opened. 3
$XRP remains another major asset I’m watching as regulated crypto exposure expands.
This is where the rotation thesis becomes interesting.
$BNB remains a major liquidity hub.
$SUI and $APT are two L1s I’m watching for relative strength if capital moves deeper into altcoins.
$AVAX, $NEAR and $SEI could also become important if risk appetite returns.
Then there is DeFi.
$AAVE, $UNI, $CRV and $PENDLE remain on my radar because capital rotation usually creates opportunities beyond the majors.
For infrastructure, $LINK remains one of the most important assets in the oracle ecosystem, while $ONDO continues to benefit from the tokenized-asset narrative.
And if traders start moving back toward higher-beta sectors, $TAO, $RENDER and $FET could attract attention quickly.
But there is still one major problem.
Macro.
The U.S. 10Y yield has climbed to around 4.81%, Brent crude is near $95, and markets are pricing roughly a 67–68% probability of a September Fed hike. 4
That makes it harder for crypto to sustain a clean breakout.
So I’m watching two things at the same time.
Price.
And where capital is moving.
#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds #RobinhoodChainRWAvsMemes #DellAIServerBeat BNB settled at $688.66, 1.9% lower on the week. bStocks give BNB Chain a distribution advantage while the equity economics stay with the custodial shares.
BNB benefits only while settlement and gas demand stay inside the stack.
One exchange still supplies most of the volume.#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds #BTCGoldCorrelationTest #DellAIServerBeat Grantham, the legendary Wall Street prophet, has accurately predicted three major crises.
The tech stock market has turned into a ghost story, predicting a 70% plunge in tech stocks.
1. AI is the fourth industrial revolution, with capital markets pouring in regardless of cost
2. Tech giants are crazily raising funds and borrowing money, wildly increasing capital expenditures to build computing power centers
3. The narrative has become "If you don't invest, you'll be left behind by the times"—exactly like the CDS before the 2008 subprime crisis
4. Nvidia builds a computing power financing platform, essentially layering risk transfer
5. Ordinary people are always the last to pay the price
His core view: history does not simply repeat, but human nature never changes.
Grantham makes sense, but he is talking about US tech stocks, not the crypto market.
The bubble in traditional finance is always a "leverage + narrative" cycle. In 2008 it was mortgage CDS, in 2026 it will be AI computing power financing. Each time it’s a new packaging, but the essence remains—borrowing money to speculate on expectations, with ordinary people left holding the bag.
What’s different about the crypto market:
- BTC has no "financing platform," no CDS, no layered leverage transfer
- You hold spot, you are your own bank
- When the US tech stock bubble bursts, where will the money flow? Gold, BTC, commodities—safe-haven assets
So Grantham’s warning only affects me in one way:
It’s right not to touch US tech stocks. Hold BTC spot firmly and keep waiting. When the bubble bursts, those holding spot won’t die; those with leverage will.$BTC $ETH $SOL Yesterday, BTC dropped from 79,225 to 76,420, now hovering around 77k. In 24 hours, liquidations reached 239 million, with longs accounting for 82.9%, and over 100 million cleared in one hour — looks scary, but it's actually aftershocks from the 3 billion liquidation wave on August 19-20 (92% shorts).
The strange thing is: open contracts haven't dropped below a 5-month low (about 587,600 BTC), funding rates even turned negative, and leverage has already been washed out. This time it's not a long squeeze, but a macro slap.
In August, ETFs net injected 3.5 billion, and on September 1, they recovered 216.7 million (IBIT took 95%). Spot funds haven't left, but leveraged funds are gone. So as long as 76.8k (the low before 8/28) holds, spot is supporting the bottom; 79k-81k is a triple wall of URPD heavy chips + ETF cost + 50-week moving average (81k). Without volume, don't expect to break through by force. Sideways consolidation with wicks means shaking out traders, not a sell-off. Full leverage positions die first, spot holders wait for the wall to break. #BTC high-level pullback, gold linkage under test #Anthropic算力采购加码，IPO成本受关注 #闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注 $TRUMP volume and price signals have huge flaws in meme coins
In regulated markets, trading volume is an important reference; but in the crypto space for small-cap meme coins, whales can fake trading volume by wash trading: buying and selling between their own accounts, making the candlestick charts look like volume is increasing, but in reality, no real funds are flowing in or out.
Common real and fake volume and price signals
1. Volume and price signals at the top
Price parabolically surges with huge volume, but the price cannot rise further (volume increases but price stagnates): frantic trading with sharply reduced gains, this is a classic distribution signal where big players sell to incoming retail investors.
Volume far exceeds market cap, daily turnover reaches several hundred percent, social media is flooded with FOMO posts, often close to the peak.
On the futures side: open interest (OI) surges, funding rates remain extremely high for a long time, everyone is going long, making it easy for a violent dump to trigger a long squeeze.
⚠️ However! Whales can fake volume increases to create a "distribution illusion," tricking retail investors into shorting, then pumping again to kill both longs and shorts.
2. Volume and price signals at the bottom
After a sustained plunge, a volume spike during a crash (panic selling), followed by continuous volume contraction, indicating selling pressure is exhausted.
Don't buy the dip just because the price has fallen a lot; a big drop ≠ the bottom, meme coins can drop 99% and then drop another 99%.
Fatal misconception:
"Lowest volume means lowest price" does not hold for small coins controlled by whales. As long as whales stop trading, the market shows very low volume and can be dumped further at any time. #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #财报观察员: Dell's performance exceeds expectations, Broadcom and Snowflake take over AI computing power demand explodes, Nvidia profits, now Dell proves with its earnings report that this is not just a story.
Dell's Q2 revenue reached $47 billion, up 58% year-on-year, a record high, exceeding expectations by more than $2 billion. The most impressive is AI servers, with single-quarter orders of 60.9 billion, backlog directly reaching 95 billion, and the full-year guidance raised from 167 billion to 192 billion. These AI servers basically all use Nvidia's GPUs, Huang Renxun profits, Dell follows along. But the CEO also complained: nothing is lacking except DRAM, storage can't keep up.
Dell has validated hardware demand, and there are two more to follow.
Broadcom's Q2 AI revenue was 10.8 billion, up 143% year-on-year, with Q3 guidance directly calling for 16 billion. Google, Meta, and ByteDance are its clients; in the custom AI chip business, Broadcom is the most stable besides Nvidia.
Snowflake's Q2 report is also coming out these days; last quarter revenue was 1.39 billion, up 33%, with after-hours surge of 35%. AI programming agent Cortex Code has started making money, and enterprises are migrating AI workloads to its platform.
In short, from Nvidia's GPUs to Dell's servers, then to Broadcom's custom chips and Snowflake's data software, the entire AI industry chain is delivering, this is not just a story.
Personal opinion, just sharing.Two different institutional crypto treasury strategies, no absolute superiority but completely different logic
Strategy and BitMine almost simultaneously started increasing their holdings, representing two completely different institutional crypto asset accumulation models. Neither path is right or wrong; their focuses are entirely different.
Strategy ended a ten-week pause and resumed buying $BTC, with funds coming from stock market issuance. The average purchase price this round was $80,320. As BTC prices fell, this position currently shows a slight unrealized loss. Its total BTC holdings have reached 845,050 coins. This model relies on equity financing to acquire Bitcoin, with returns entirely dependent on BTC price appreciation. As long as the coin price rises long-term, it can offset the dilution effect from equity issuance, but it cannot generate cash flow. Short-term price fluctuations directly impact accounting performance.
On the other hand, BitMine has continuously increased its ETH holdings for 65 consecutive weeks, recently adding over 5,350 $ETH. Its core difference is that a large amount of ETH is staked, generating ongoing staking rewards and forming a stable cash flow source.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议
#财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 Robinhood Chain has been very popular recently. When I saw the four characters "on-chain stock," my first reaction was still to check the contract.
Robinhood's official statement is very straightforward: Classic Stock Token is a derivative that tracks the price of US stocks or ETFs, and what is recorded on-chain is the contract between you and Robinhood Europe. You do not actually own the stock, nor do you have voting rights. Currently, these tokens cannot be transferred to external wallets or other platforms.
It handles corporate actions such as stock splits and mergers, and distributes equivalent cash dividends when conditions are met. The benefits are that you can invest starting from 1 euro and trade 24 hours on business days, but there is an additional layer of Robinhood's performance and bankruptcy risk. The official risk disclosure states that in extreme cases, you may lose your entire investment.
When I look at this type of product, I first check who custodies the underlying assets, whether the tokens can be freely transferred, and exactly which contract you hold. The term "on-chain" changes the recording and settlement method but does not automatically grant shareholder rights.
Source: Robinhood official support documentation. Personal record, not investment advice.
#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #RWABTC ETF buyers are back, so why did Bitcoin drop back to 77,000?
The US spot BTC ETF saw a clear resurgence of buying at the end of August.
From August 17 to 27, there were net inflows for 9 consecutive trading days, totaling about $3 billion; on August 31, there was another net inflow of $217 million, with BlackRock's IBIT product alone contributing $206 million.
But BTC has now returned to around $77,000.
This indicates that the market is not lacking buyers, but macro selling pressure is temporarily stronger.
Oil prices have risen back above $90, the US 10-year Treasury yield is close to 4.8%, and the market's probability of a rate hike in September has risen above 60%. ETF funds are flowing in, but high interest rates and a strong dollar are pressuring risk assets on the other side.
Here, a signal worth watching has emerged:
ETFs have bought $3 billion consecutively, but BTC has not continued to surge, indicating sellers above; yet despite such strong macro pressure, BTC can still hold around $77,000, which also indicates buyers below.
So going forward, we cannot just look at "how much net inflow the ETF has today."
What really matters are two combinations.
If ETFs resume continuous net inflows and US Treasury yields start to fall, and BTC climbs back above $80,000, it means institutional buying is truly driving the second phase of the rally.
If ETFs continue to receive funds but BTC never breaks above $80,000, it means this buying is being absorbed by profit-taking, macro pressure, or other spot selling.The most notable thing right now is not whether BTC will rise or fall in the next few days, but which assets the money flow is choosing to stay with as global liquidity tightens. BTC is currently around $77K, while the 10-year US Treasury bond yield is about 4.81% and expectations for a Fed rate hike in September are increasing. This puts pressure on all risk assets. But this does not look like a crypto market sell-off. It looks more like a process of reallocating money flow. $BTC — where d$XAU sharply corrected, don't panic excessively over short-term news
Gold prices experienced a sharp short-term pullback, falling from 4700 to around 4360, with a weekly decline close to 7.1%. Intraday, it briefly approached the 100-day moving average before rebounding on support.
This round of decline was mainly influenced by the Fed's hawkish stance, with the market raising expectations for a September rate hike and the stronger dollar suppressing gold prices. However, it is important to note that while ETFs and retail investors are selling, global central banks continue to increase their gold holdings. The underlying mid-to-long-term logic such as geopolitical conflicts has not disappeared, and institutions remain optimistic about future prospects. Currently, short-term indicators have entered oversold territory.
The market is in a high volatility phase, with opportunities for both bulls and bears, but it is necessary to wait for clear signals of a bottom or resistance from the market before making decisions, and strictly set risk protections. Short-term volatility is intense, so blind bottom-fishing is not advisable.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议
#财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 #Divergence in pre-nonfarm data, September rate hike expectations heat up
What impact do rate hikes have on gold and crypto?
Rate hike expectations have already hit gold and crypto once.
On the day of Wash's speech on the 28th, spot gold dropped about 3% from its high, closing around $4450, with silver falling even more sharply. Bitcoin dropped from 81,300 to about 76,900, roughly a 3% decline that day, with crypto liquidations around $480 million, mostly long positions. The 2-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.34%. Over the weekend, gold held near 4456, and Bitcoin bounced back to around 79,000. This is not the rate hike landing, but futures pricing in a 66% chance of a 25 basis point hike in September.
There are two mechanisms. When rates rise, the risk-free rate increases, forcing a revaluation of non-yielding assets like gold; the dollar strengthens, making gold and crypto priced in dollars more expensive. Crypto has an additional layer: leverage is first unwound, and ETF funds will watch US Treasuries rather than oil. Geopolitical premiums remain in gold since the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, so gold won't fall exactly in tandem with crypto.
A 66% chance is not a done hike. Nonfarm payrolls are on Friday, FOMC on the 15th-16th. If expectations rise further, gold and crypto will be discounted first; if expectations retreat, both can breathe. Don't interpret simultaneous declines as a permanent future correlation of rises. $BTC $XAU Apple changes leadership, Ternus takes over as CEO. The hardest part is not succeeding Cook, but succeeding an Apple that is too good at making money.
Cook transformed Apple from a hardware cycle company into a cash machine running services, supply chain, buybacks, and ecosystem together. Ternus comes from a hardware background, so the market naturally expects foldable screens, AI devices, and new form-factor products. But the problem lies here: what Apple lacks now is not another flashy launch event, but proof that it can redefine the next generation of entry points.
I think the outside world will underestimate the pressure of this matter.
A new CEO comes in who cannot recklessly change the profit machine Cook left behind, nor let Apple continue to be labeled as "AI lagging behind." Apple's most valuable asset is user habits, and its most dangerous point is that user habits are too stable, so stable that innovation seems not urgent enough.
#苹果换帅：Ternus接任CEO $DOGE's biggest narrative this year — satellite launch on September 14!
Is it worth buying?
Currently, the RSI is relatively healthy, not overheated, so you can take a chance riding the hype.
The DOGE-1 satellite will launch on September 14, executed by SpaceX Falcon 9. This is DOGE's biggest narrative catalyst this year; Musk won't miss this marketing opportunity.
But historically: sentiment peaks 3-5 days before launch, and the positive momentum is usually exhausted on the launch day or the day after. 0.08 is the recent support, 0.09 is resistance.
My approach: take a small position to speculate on the pre-launch sentiment. You can buy around 0.08, targeting 0.09-0.095. You must sell on the launch day; don't be greedy. This is a typical event-driven trade, not value investing.#Rising Hormuz Risk, Energy Inflation in Focus
US Stock Market Analysis: US-Iran conflict triggers oil price surge, stocks and bonds both hit, gold plummets
Overall Market: A black start to September, all three major US indices fell, Nasdaq plunged 1%. Geopolitical tensions took center stage, global markets entered risk-off mode.
Macro and Asset Performance:
Oil Prices: US-Iran clash, WTI crude surged 5.2% to above $90, energy stocks became the only safe haven.
Bond Market: Global sovereign bonds sold off, 10-year US Treasury yield soared to 4.8%, rate hike probability directly hit 68%.
Gold: Real interest rates rose, gold broke below $4350, down nearly 2%.
Stock Market: As rates rise, tech stocks took the hardest hit first. Software and semiconductor sectors led the decline, AI concepts underperformed the broader market.
Core Logic: Geopolitical conflict → oil price surge → inflation expectations rise → bond yields spike → growth stock valuations pressured. Oil price rise boosted energy stocks but crushed almost all other sectors.
Summary: Geopolitics is unpredictable and can only be managed. Oil prices surged too sharply now; if the situation cools down later, the pullback will be quick $CL #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
Before key data releases, the market often 'runs ahead' in pricing, which is more worth noting than the data itself.
The key logic is: the market reaction after data release is more important than the data itself.
If prices don't rise after good news, it means the positive factors have already been priced in, and the upward momentum may be insufficient.
If prices don't fall after bad news, it actually indicates strong support below, and the market may have already "price in" the bad news.
What really needs attention is not a single data point, but the combined reaction of BTC trends, the US dollar, US Treasury yields, ETF fund flows, and the options market after data release; together, they provide the true market answer.
Currently, the market is in a "waiting for new signals" phase. At the end of August, Bitcoin consolidated narrowly near the eighty-thousand-dollar mark, with short-term implied volatility rising, indicating participants are positioning ahead of price fluctuations around macro events. Interest rate expectations are the core variable affecting the coin price now, and capital flows have also diverged—spot fund inflows are a clear source of demand, but the decline in open interest is closer to short covering rather than new buying.
So at this stage, the direction is indeed not yet determined; there is no need to rush to guess the direction. The focus should be on observing the market reaction after the data release. If the data signals strong rate cut expectations, Bitcoin may challenge upward; if inflation rebounds, the previous upward structure may be broken. 9.02 $SNDK
Many friends still view SanDisk with an old perspective.
In the past, this was a typical flash memory cyclical stock, with performance basically tied to the consumer electronics cycle, and the market fluctuated violently with the cycle.
But now the situation is different; the AI wave has reshaped its core logic.
Currently, major cloud service providers and AI companies are signing long-term flash memory procurement contracts, and these long-term agreements can hedge some of the risks brought by cyclical fluctuations.
Yesterday's stock price strength has already reflected this. The current pullback can be temporarily regarded as a consolidation on the way up. There is no sign yet that the core logic has been broken, but continuous verification is still needed.
My personal view is moderately bullish in the medium to long term; pullbacks can be key opportunities to buy the dip.
For those who haven't acted yet, you can pay attention to layout opportunities around 1515, with the first target at 1650.
$BTC $ETH robin has been super hot these past two days, with fee revenue rising to $13.05 million just two months after launch
Setting a historical high!
Smart friends should have positioned themselves in Arbitrum ($ARB) when robin took off
Why?
Because these two are linked — according to the cooperation agreement, Robinhood Chain must return 10% of net income to the Arbitrum ecosystem, with 8% going to the DAO treasury and 2% to the developer guild.
The more Robinhood earns, the more the ARB ecosystem benefits.
$ARB has indeed been impressive recently, rising 46% in two weeks.
However, there is a big unlock on September 23rd, releasing 139 million ARB tokens worth over $15 million, accounting for 1.4% of the total supply, which may create pressure.
Watch the rhythm for short-term trades; for the long term, if robin stays this hot, the logic still holds.
#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 I am Brother Ci, shorting BTC at 78888, stop loss at 81500, with a clear logical chain and triple resonance from technical, macro, and capital perspectives. First, let's see what the 78888 position means. BTC has rallied from 63000 to above 81000, a monthly increase of over 28%. However, on August 28, ETFs turned to net outflows, and on September 1, there was another net outflow of $236.5 million, with IBIT alone accounting for $201.2 million. Institutional buying above 80000 has already cooled off. The 78888 level falls exactly on the upper edge of the key resistance zone between 78500 and 79000, which is the limit of the rebound, not the starting point of a breakout. The stop loss at 81500 is about 2620 points away from the entry, allowing reasonable price fluctuation space. Once the daily chart effectively holds above 81000 and breaks out with volume, the short logic fails. Technical perspective, triple pressure resonance: First, 78500 to 79000 is an important resistance area. When BTC rebounds to this zone, there are strong resistance levels at 80000 and between 81000 to 82000 above, limiting further upward space. Second, the rebound is on shrinking volume, indicating exhaustion of chasing buyers. The previous short squeeze from 62000 to 81000 has consumed $3 billion in short positions; the short fuel is basically burned out. Further upward movement requires new spot buying rather than relying on short covering. Third, 78K to 79K is a battleground of repeated tug-of-war between bulls and bears; the price oscillates here without effective breakout, indicating weakening bullish strength. Macro perspective, ongoing interest rate hike expectations continue to suppress risk assets. Wash at JackJust saw the data from SoSoValue, on September 1st, the overall net outflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs was $236 million. The most surprising thing is that the giant iShares IBIT, which used to only buy, actually had a one-time outflow of $201 million yesterday.
Let's analyze this intriguing set of data:
1. The $201 million outflow from IBIT this time is definitely rare recently. Although it still has a cumulative net inflow of $63.37 billion, this move has cast a psychological shadow of a big September drop over the market.
2. While everyone else was running away, BITB quietly bought $8.38 million. Although the amount is not large, the attitude is very clear: you run your way, I'll pick up some cheap chips.
3. Despite such a large outflow, the total assets of ETFs still stand at $97.12 billion, accounting for 6.25% of Bitcoin's total market value. In other words, if Wall Street just moves a little finger now, our market will shake hard.
Old traders all know that "Red September" is no joke in the crypto world. Historical data tells us that September is often the worst performing month for Bitcoin.
* The big players behind BlackRock, such as pension funds and hedge funds, have a macro risk sense sharper than dogs. This outflow looks more like a preventive retreat in response to upcoming non-farm payroll data or Federal Reserve moves.
* Don't forget, although there has been recent volatility, long-term holdings are still in profit.BTC｜Is it time to bottom-fish now, or sell first? $ARB $UNI $ZEC Bitcoin has fallen back from the previous rebound high to just below $78,000 today. Short-term pressure is clearly increasing. 📈 MarketWatch +1 What deserves more attention is not a single drop, but the macro environment becoming unfavorable for risk assets: escalating Middle East tensions pushing up oil prices, the US 10-year Treasury yield rising to about 4.81%, a stronger dollar, and the market even raising expectations for further Fed rate hikes. 📉 Reuters +1 On the other hand, BTC has not experienced a trend collapse. The August spot BTC ETF still recorded a net inflow of about $3–3.5 billion, indicating institutional demand has not completely disappeared. 📊 CoinStats +1 My strategy: I do not recommend going all-in to bottom-fish at once, nor panicking to sell off. If you already hold BTC, you can keep your core position; if you are preparing new funds, consider phased buying rather than trying to perfectly time the bottom. What really needs to be watched is whether BTC can stabilize again near $80,000 and whether ETF funds can continue to flow back. 👉 Do you think this pullback is a **new buying opportunity or a risk release after the rise?** #DellAIServerBeat #OKXOutcomesRelay #HormuzEnergyInflation #加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验
The leader has something to say
Two routes for crypto treasuries, both expanding on the same day.
Strategy bought 4,603 BTC last week at an average price of 80,318, with a total holding of 845,100 BTC. BitMine holds 5,901,100 ETH, with 86% staked, generating an annual staking income of $335 million.
But the bigger variable lies in index eligibility. MSCI is advancing a rule adjustment regarding the eligibility of "non-operating companies" for index inclusion. If implemented, treasury companies like Strategy that rely on financing to buy coins may be removed from the MSCI Global Investable Market Index.
Strategy is opposing this, but the rule's direction is out of its hands.
The scale of coin purchases is for show; index eligibility and financing capability are the substance. Strategy's model depends on financing to buy coins and wait for appreciation, while BitMine stacks staking income on top of ETH price gains. One bets on asset appreciation, the other on cash flow. Whichever among $BTC $ETH $SOL can continuously increase asset value per share will have a viable model.
Continuing to hold short positions on ZEC.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop-loss orders must be set. Good luck.Data divergence before the non-farm payrolls, the September rate hike suspense is at its peak. The latest two sets of US data have posed a dilemma for the market. The August ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 55.6 to 54.6, below the expected 55.2, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing expansion; however, the prices paid index remains high at 71.1, showing inflationary pressure has not significantly eased. The labor market also appears stable on the surface but is cooling internally. July JOLTS job openings recorded 7.271 million, higher than the revised 6.182 million in June, but hires decreased by 278,000 to 5.054 million, indicating companies are not conducting large-scale layoffs but are increasingly reluctant to hire. The real trouble is that rising oil prices continue to push up inflation expectations, with US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthening simultaneously. The market's pricing for a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September has risen to about 66%–68%, and the 10-year Treasury yield once approached 4.8%. Risk assets have started to come under pressure, with the three major US stock indices all closing lower, the Nasdaq down about 1%; BTC is also fluctuating repeatedly around $78,000. The most critical event next is the August non-farm payrolls release at 20:30 Beijing time on September 4. If employment is too strong, it will further reinforce rate hike expectations; if employment weakens significantly, it will trigger concerns about economic cooling. For BTC, in the short term, it is no longer simply a case of "bad data means a rise," but rather a need to simultaneously watch how the dollar, US Treasury yields, and rate hike probabilities are repriced. Personally, I will focus on the support strength around $78,000. Before the non-farm payrolls release, chasing gains or panic selling is risky Feeling the profits are unstable
Looks like it dropped a bit
But the pullback was too fast
$BTC didn't drop below 76000
So it didn't break the support level
Clearly still an uptrend
Not really daring to add more short positions
Just holding this short position for now
This one was opened at 78662
Now around 77600
Floating profit is already over 1200U
Logically this position should be comfortable
But every time it dips these past two days
The buy orders below are filled very quickly
A truly weak market wouldn't give so many rebound chances
Before losing 76000
It looks more like a high-level shakeout in an uptrend
So the short position can be held
But definitely not chasing to add more
If it really stands back above 78200
I'll start protecting profits
$XAUT recently seems like an amplifier of risk-off sentiment
With geopolitical risks combined
Funds immediately flow to gold
It keeps strong
Indicating the market hasn't fully relaxed its vigilance yet
Small-cap coins like $BICO are more about liquidity
When BTC drops suddenly, it tends to amplify volatility
But on a rebound, it might suddenly pull back
Now is not the time to heavily bet on direction
I'll keep holding this $BTC short position
With profits, just hold for now
But if 76000 doesn't break
I absolutely won't turn a short-term short into a dead short!
#BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 Analyzing the K-line chart — over the past month, BTC has risen steadily from around 63,500 to 77,000, while ETH surged from 1,880 to 2,400.
ETH's increase is more aggressive, indicating that market funds are gradually increasing their risk exposure. However, both still have room before reaching their yearly highs; currently, it looks more like a consolidation after a rebound rather than a true trend breakout.
The logic for BTC is relatively simple: fixed supply + institutional allocation, with the core purchase driven by scarcity and market consensus. ETH is much more complex, with stablecoins, DeFi, and L2 forming a complete ecosystem. When liquidity warms up, funds usually flow to BTC first, and only when risk appetite further increases does ETH's elasticity truly release.
The macro environment remains challenging: interest rate at 3.75%, inflation at 2.5%, unemployment at 4.1%. Expectations of rate cuts can support valuations, but as long as inflation and the dollar fluctuate again, the market will remain under pressure.
My judgment is simple: BTC for direction, ETH for odds. With easing expectations strengthening, ETH is more likely to outperform; if macro tightens again, BTC is relatively more resilient.
No need to overthink it, just take what you need.
#Pre-nonfarm data divergence, September rate hike expectations heat up
#Robinhood on-chain volume surges, crypto-stock Meme sparks controversy
$BTC $ETH $SOL 5 Quick Takes on Today's Market
Quick Take 1: Oil Prices Are the Main Director
Brent crude oil broke through $96.56/barrel today, up 2% intraday, with a cumulative surge of 51% year-to-date.
What does 51% mean? If you bought oil for 1 million at the start of the year, it’s now 1.51 million.
The bond market crashed first, who’s next?
Oil prices are the "main director" of this global asset repricing round. It’s not the Fed, not Trump, it’s oil.
Quick Take 2: Global Bond Markets Are Undergoing a "Rate Reset"
The US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.798%. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield hit 3%, the highest in 30 years since 1996. The UK 10-year government bond yield is 5.255%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis.
Germany’s 10-year yield also surged to its highest since 2011.
This is not a problem of any single country. This is a global rate reset.
Borrowing costs are soaring, and global governments’ interest expenses are exploding. The "dry wood" accumulated from fiscal stimulus has been ignited by the Iran conflict.
The cash you hold is being squeezed from both inflation and rising interest rates.
Quick Take 3: BTC Falls Below 77,000 — Why Doesn’t It Rise Amid War?
Bitcoin dropped to a low of $76,454 today.
Some ask: Shouldn’t safe-haven assets rise during war?
Wrong. The current market logic is: "Oil price up → inflation up → Fed rate hikes" → all risk assets come under pressure.
BTC’s safe-haven attribute is temporarily overshadowed by "rate hike fears."
It’s not that Bitcoin is weak; the macro narrative is just too strong.
Quick Take 4: 66% Chance of Fed Rate Hike in September, Two Weeks to Decide
The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has surged to 66%.
Before the speech by Waller at Jackson Hole on August 28, this number was just over 30%.
It doubled in less than a week.
September 11 CPI data + September 15 FOMC meeting = the most important macro window of 2026 in the next two weeks. No contest.
CPI beats expectations → rate hike → risk assets crash.
CPI misses expectations → no rate hike → risk assets rebound.
That simple. And that brutal.
Quick Take 5: Only Two Scenarios
If oil prices stay above $90, inflation expectations will heat up further.
BTC’s next script has only two options:
Scenario A: Bottom near 77,000, wait for macro reversal → get through it, and it’s spring.
Scenario B: Continue to fall with risk assets → another drop ahead.
Which way? Watch the September 11 CPI.
Before then, all moves are guesses.
The bond market has already crashed.
Oil prices keep rising.
The rate hike probability keeps climbing.
Before September 11, hold your hands, don’t act rashly.
$BTC $BZ $XAU #霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注 Is $FIL about to revive?
The price rebounded from about $0.6 in August and has recently risen again.😱
Let's first figure out what this thing really is.
You can think of it as a "worldwide shared cloud storage": some people provide hard drives to store files, others pay to rent space. FIL is the token used in this cloud storage—for payments, collateral, and rewards.
Before, everyone compared: whether the hard drives were big enough and the data stored was enough.
Now the official stance has changed: it depends on whether people actually pay monthly.
The warehouses are already large; what's missing are tenants.
When tenants come and money flows on-chain, this coin gains more confidence.
Just stacking empty warehouses with no rent paid makes it hard for the price to improve long-term.
So what does buying $FIL mean?
It’s a bet on whether this decentralized cloud storage can transform from an "experimental project" into a "business that collects rent."
If it succeeds, then it looks like a revival. If not, it remains a cheap but empty warehouse.
A two-day price increase doesn’t equal revival. What really matters is whether there are continuous paying users coming in afterwards.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议
#财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 BTC and ETH face macro pressure
$BTC hovers between $77,000 and $78,000, while $ETH holds around $2,400. The pressure is no longer driven solely by US-Iran tensions; a tighter financial environment adds another layer of resistance
Brent crude oil prices exceed $95, 10-year Treasury yields approach 4.81%, and the market prices in about a 67% chance of a rate hike in September
This is a troubling combination for risk assets. For $BTC, $76,000 to $77,000 remains key support. Holding this range could stabilize market sentiment; once broken, it may accelerate selling pressure.When everyone is panicking, whales might be quietly accumulating
Oil prices have risen to $95, bond markets are crashing, the probability of a rate hike has surged to 65%, BTC has dropped from 81,000 to 77,000——
Seeing these headlines together, are you panicking?
If you are, congratulations, you’re a normal person.
But normal people usually don’t make money in the crypto market.
On September 1, the US launched a new round of airstrikes against Iran. Brent crude oil rose 4.5% in two days, breaking through $94 and approaching $95.
Global bond markets crashed simultaneously—Germany’s 10-year government bond yield hit the highest since 2011, the UK’s the highest since 2008, Japan’s the highest since 1996. The US 10-year Treasury yield soared to 4.8%, a new high since January 2025.
The probability of a Fed rate hike in September jumped from just over 30% before Waller’s speech to 66%.
Oil prices have risen 51% year-to-date.
All traditional market signals are telling you one thing: run.
Bitcoin rose 24% in August, marking its best monthly performance since November 2024. It once surged to $81,500, a 15-week high.
Then what? After Waller’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, BTC fell below $78,000. It is currently fluctuating between $77,000 and $79,000.
ETF funds also showed issues—after nine consecutive days of net inflows, on September 1 there was a net outflow of $202 million. Yesterday (September 2) continued with a $236 million outflow.
On the surface, it looks like: the good news is all out, it can’t rise anymore, time to run.
But—note this “but”—
On-chain data tells a completely opposite story.
CryptoQuant data shows that in the past 60 days, addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC have net accumulated 73,300 BTC, the highest since April 21.
Wallets holding over 10,000 BTC increased their holdings by 43,300 BTC in the same period.
What does this mean?
At $77,000 per BTC, these whales have quietly bought over $9 billion worth of Bitcoin in the past two months.
You see headlines panicking, they are silently absorbing the supply.
On September 2, a whale address starting with 0xe2ad executed the first order of a preset $60 million buying plan.
At an average price of $76,499, it bought 121.53 BTC, worth about $9.3 million.
Moreover, this address has 17 unfilled limit orders, planning to continue buying 671 BTC in the price range of $75,479 to $76,245, with a total value of about $50.88 million.
See that?
Retail investors are panic selling, whales are placing buy orders at $75,000–$76,000.
Who is absorbing whose supply?
The Fear & Greed Index has dropped from 81 last week to 62. Market sentiment is cooling, retail investors are panicking.
But the number of whale wallets hit a 6-month high in August, with 90 addresses holding at least 10,000 BTC.
Retail is selling, whales are buying.
This is no coincidence. This is the classic crypto market script—always the same.
So how "real" is this round of macro panic?
Honestly, it’s quite scary.
If oil prices stay above $90, inflation pressure will spread from energy to broader consumer goods prices. Among the Fed’s preferred inflation indicators, 54% of commodity prices have year-over-year increases exceeding 3%, far above the 32% historical average.
The CPI data on September 11 and the Fed meeting on September 16—two major bombs waiting to explode.
If CPI exceeds expectations, if the Fed really hikes rates, the market might drop again.
These risks are real; I’m not trying to fool you by saying "it’s nothing."
But what is the core of contrarian thinking?
It’s not ignoring risk, it’s judging whether the risk is already priced in.
Oil at $95—the market already knows.
Rate hike probability at 66%—the market already knows.
Bond market crash—the market already knows.
All these "bad news" are already priced in.
So what hasn’t been priced in?
September 11 CPI might show controlled inflation—that’s not priced in.
Oil price spike might be a geopolitical flash event, then ease as the situation calms—that’s not priced in.
Whales buying $9 billion BTC in the past 60 days—that’s even less priced in.
In March 2020, when the pandemic broke out, US stocks circuit-breakered, Bitcoin dropped 40% in one day. Everyone was selling.
Whales were buying.
In November 2022, FTX collapsed, Bitcoin dropped to $15,000. Everyone said "crypto is dead."
Whales were buying.
In August 2024, Japan’s rate hike triggered global carry trade unwinding, Bitcoin flash crashed to $49,000. Everyone panicked.
Whales were buying.
Then what?
Every time, it bounced back.
Not because whales are smarter, but because whales can endure panic better.
Contrarian doesn’t mean blind.
The current strategy is simple——
First, don’t be scared by headlines. Oil prices, bond markets, rate hikes—these are noise, not signals.
Second, watch on-chain data. Whales buying means someone thinks this price is not expensive.
Third, before the September 11 CPI data is released, buy in batches with light positions. Save your bullets for after uncertainty dissipates.
The most panic-filled moments often correspond to the best value entry points.
But the premise is—you must have bullets.
"Be greedy when others are fearful"—everyone can recite this.
But few can truly do it.
Because greed is not a strategy, it’s a counter-human nature ability.
When everyone in your group is shouting "run!"
When your Twitter feed is full of "Bitcoin will drop to 60,000"
When you see your account’s unrealized losses and start trembling—
Ask yourself:
Are you doing what 90% of people are doing?
If yes, you’re probably losing money.
$BTC $CL $BZ #霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注 [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Why did Robinhood Chain suddenly become popular? On-chain DEX trading volume surpassed $2 billion, rising 61% in one month, and on August 31 alone, it hit $1.49 billion, directly ranking second among all chains. It's like Pharaoh suddenly discovering a spring in the desert—no one expected such speed.
Where did the volume come from? It's not that retail investors suddenly understood DeFi; it's that the "crypto-stock pairing" Meme has created a new twist.
Simply put, this gameplay means the liquidity pool for Meme coins no longer pairs with ETH or USDC, but with tokenized stocks. You buy a Meme coin called AI, and on the other side of the pool is NVDA token. Buying the Meme coin simultaneously means indirectly buying NVDA. Suddenly, you become a "stockholder."
The controversy lies here.
The liquidity pools of Meme players directly lock the supply of on-chain stock tokens. During the weekend when the US stock market was closed, the HIMS token once traded at a 112% premium over the NYSE closing price. The essence of this is—"the scarcity of stock tokens is not determined by real stock supply and demand, but by how FOMO the Meme players are."
What does Pharaoh think? Robinhood Chain's approach indeed activated RWA liquidity, but it feels more like an experiment of "Meme hijacking stocks." It's fun, but don't mistake Meme-driven premiums for value discovery. $ETH $BTC $ARB #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 The escalation of the US-Iran conflict has caused $CL oil prices to surge dramatically, intensifying market fears of inflation and sharply increasing expectations of interest rate hikes; this very logic has led to a steep decline in risk assets, and gold, as a non-yielding asset, has also been affected.
So when will risk assets led by BTC warm up? A key indicator is oil prices.
Only when oil prices fall will market panic over inflation subside, shifting the logic from trading inflation and rate hikes to trading high-risk preference assets; the saying among experts that "when crude oil falls, all things thrive" reflects this principle.
#霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注
@OKX星球 [Breaking Analysis] Is the Bitcoin Bull Market Confirmed? Follow the Trend and Buy the Dip!
Today, I’m going to make a bold statement (don’t hate if you disagree): The cycle model (Figure 1) shows that the 20-month major cycle bottom for Bitcoin was finally confirmed in early July. How does the Hurst cycle determine the bottom? For example, to confirm the bottom of the 20-month major cycle, we look at the next lower cycle, the 40-week fld line. When the 40-week fld line crosses above and holds above the K-line, it means the 20-month major cycle bottom has formed (see the green line and red circle in Figure 1). Of course, if the price later falls below the fld line and breaks to a new low forming a lower bottom, then this 20-month major cycle bottom is invalidated.
At least for now, the formation of the 20-month major cycle bottom means the start of a long upward cycle. This also implies that this bear market is a shallow one, with large institutions entering the market, reducing Bitcoin’s volatility, and bringing the bull market earlier than expected.
This is a bold analysis, and many may not understand it. I remain open to different viewpoints. If a new low forms later and the bottom is invalidated, I will admit my mistake.
But one important point is that bull markets often arise amid divergence, continue amid doubt, and collapse amid consensus.
Before the 20-month major cycle bottom is invalidated, I tend to view the upward trend as the main direction. So the trading strategy becomes mainly buying on dips, with selling on highs as a secondary approach. If you don’t believe the cycle model’s prediction, that’s fine; responding to the market is more important than predicting it.
With the main strategy set, here is the short-term operation plan.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin may have completed waves 1, 2, and 3, and is currently in wave 4. Wave 4 often shows complex and tangled movement, and after correction, usually leads to wave 5, as shown in Figure 2.
Therefore, in the short term, you can buy at the low point of wave 4. Measuring from the lows of waves 1 and 3, the improved Fibonacci retracement support level is between 74,500 and 75,500. This can be considered strong support. If the market provides an opportunity and the price falls to this range, consider buying to capture the upward wave 5. Early September is the 20-day minor cycle bottom; watch if the market offers an opportunity.
October, the end of this year, and early next year are still cycle bottoms and remain good times to add to spot positions.
In my personal trades, I advised caution and partial profit-taking on short positions at 78,200 tonight, with limited profits. But the Link long positions I shared in the group a few days ago have performed well, as shown in Figures 3 and 4.
Defensive trading: My style is to take opportunities when they arise and patiently wait when they don’t, without over-focusing on trend predictions. If there are profits, I move stop-losses to lock in partial gains. We have many positions, many of which quickly become profitable with a high win rate, so there’s no need to be greedy.
Current personal position status (all operations announced in advance):
Spot: 63,000 worth of Bitcoin, 1,800–1,900 worth of Ethereum, 60+ Circle, 140+ Coin.
I usually buy in batches, keep cash ready, and add more at cycle bottoms like October and the end of this year or early next year.
Spot purchases may be locked for a considerable time, but you sow in the bear market and reap in the bull market.
All the above is based on cycle model theoretical values; actual results may vary. Please think independently. These are personal views and operations and do not constitute any trading advice.