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As the first trading day of August begins, the US stock market is at the intersection of "strong earnings reports from tech giants" and "restructuring expectations for macroinflation and rate cuts."
Last Friday, the S&P 500 index surged 0.70% to close at a high of 7,490 points, with Q2 earnings growth of 29.3%, marking a strong recent performance.
However, the performance of tech giants has diverged sharply, shifting market focus from AI capital expenditure to AI commercialization monetization rates and supply chain bottlenecks.
In the crypto market, high macro interest rate constraints and elevated US Treasury yields have kept the market volatile at high levels, but on-chain ecosystem activity remains at locally high levels amid stock competition.
At the same time, the US stock market is in a "AI performance divergence testing period," with Amazon and Microsoft, which have cloud monetization capabilities, favored by capital, while high-cost targets constrained by supply chains face valuation corrections; The crypto market, on the other hand, is characterized by a broad-cap sideways movement and structural rotation of high-performance public blockchains and strong cash flow DeFi amid a tight macro environment.
$BTC
#30年期美债, the top or a new beginning? #韩股重挫5%, storing long-short signals in a standoff
The Korean stock market crashed again today, with KOSPI dropping more than 5% at one point and closing down 5.12% at 6,257.45 points. Samsung Electronics fell 8.76%, and SK Hynix dropped 8.79%. Last Friday, KOSPI rose nearly 18%, SK Hynix increased 30%, and Samsung jumped 27%. Up 30%, down 8%—one day up is enough to fall for several days.
Foreign investors were the main force selling today, retail investors were buying, and local funds were also selling. This scenario is exactly the same as before—foreign capital flees, retail investors take over, and after that, the price keeps falling.
But what is truly worth pondering today is the bullish and bearish signals hidden behind this sharp decline.
The bears' arguments remain strong. Kioxia's financial report last week fell short of expectations, with revenue of 1.77 trillion yen and operating profit of 1.27 trillion yen, compared to market expectations of 1.37 trillion yen. Not much difference, but in this market, "falling short of expectations" is a crime. Storage stocks have already fallen hard enough in July—SanDisk fell 46% month-on-month, Micron 28%, and Kioxia ADR 53%. The Roundhill Storage ETF fell nearly 32% in a single month. South Korean regulations are also tightening leveraged ETFs, with a 20% cap on individual investment and a cash threshold raised from 10 million won to 30 million won.
But bullish signals are also piling up. Morgan Stanley said deleveraging has already exceeded half, and believes KOSPI still has 36% to 40% room to rise. JPMorgan also said deleveraging is nearing completion. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose more than 8% last Friday, SanDisk rose 20%, and Micron gained 12%. The fundamentals of memory haven't collapsed, DRAM spot prices are still rising, and HBM is still in short supply. SK Hynix's CEO himself said the shortage could last until 2030. After such a big drop, valuations are indeed getting cheaper. SK Hynix's expected 2027 PE ratio has already dropped below 10 times.
What the bears see is that the leverage clearing isn't over yet, and sentiment is still panicking. What bulls see is valuations getting cheaper and deleveraging nearing its end. Both sides have their own data to support it.
The current round of storage market has come down to one question—do you trust fundamentals, or do you trust sentiment? Fundamentals tell you HBM is still insufficient, long-term contracts are still locked in price, and AI infrastructure is still burning money. Sentiment tells you that storage stocks have dropped 40% in a month, leveraged trading is still blowing up, and retail investors are still cutting losses.
My view is that the fundamentals haven't changed, but the chip structure is broken. Last Friday's 18% bullish candlestick was launched by both short covering and leveraged liquidation, not new incremental funds entering the market. Today's drop shows that selling pressure hasn't fully cleared out.
The fundamentals of storage remain solid, but bottom-fishing at this level requires preparation for further wear down. After a 40% drop, the real bottom is often not a single point, but a range. Waiting for South Korea's leveraged holdings to be cleared, storage price expectations to stabilize, and market sentiment to return from panic to rationality—until then, every big rally could be a relay to the next round of declines.美股盘前，游戏驿站（GME）跌幅扩大至12%。市场上弥漫着一股熟悉的躁动——“散户大战华尔街”的主角，又一次被逼到了墙角。 导火索：14亿美元的“债转股” 暴跌的直接原因是公司宣布了一项约14亿美元的可转换票据私募换股操作。简单说，就是把部分零息可转债换成普通股。 对公司来说是利好——降低长期负债，不用掏现金。但对持有者来说是利空——流通股增加，每股价值被稀释。市场用12%的跌幅表达了态度。 “散户之战”主角的现状 游戏驿站目前持有约4709枚比特币作为部分财务储备，手里还攥着约74亿美元的现金和等价物。长期债务中相当部分来自2025年发行的零息可转债，这也是本轮债转股操作的背景。 Ryan Cohen领导下，游戏驿站已从“游戏零售商”蜕变为“现金管理平台”，但这一转型战略在市场波动时反而成了双刃剑。 市场在等待什么？ 美股盘前的这12%跌幅，释放了最明确的信号：市场对稀释的恐惧，盖过了对基本面改善的期待。散户军团是否会再次集结“救市”，还是选择旁观，将决定GME开盘后的最终走向。 $BTC $ETH $SNDK #美日确认联合购汇 #SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即 #I discovered a harsh fact:
This bull market might be the hardest for ordinary people to make money.
Not because there was no chance.
It's because the old logic of "buying knockoffs and waiting for a price surge" is now failing.
In the markets of 2017 and 2021, many people bought a small coin, and when market sentiment picked up, it multiplied tenfold within a few months.
But now it's getting harder and harder.
Why?
Because money in the market is being siphoned away in several directions.
First:
BTC is draining institutional liquidity.
Previously, institutions wanted to enter the crypto market without simple channels.
Now that ETFs have appeared, many traditional funds can directly buy BTC.
The result was:
Money that previously entered the market flowed into BTC, ETH, and various altcoins.
Now, some of the funds are directly held in BTC.
It is clearly more difficult for counterfeits to obtain the same funding support.
Second:
There are too many projects, and liquidity is severely diluted.
In previous cycles, there might have only been a few hundred popular projects.
Now, a large number of new tokens are emerging every day.
AI、DePIN、RWA、Meme、GameFi……
Each track has dozens or even hundreds of projects.
But market money hasn't increased that quickly.
The result was:
Previously, a single project could absorb $1 billion in liquidity.
Now, dozens of projects might be fighting for this $1 billion together.
Third:
Retail investors have become smarter.
In the past, people mainly bought coins based on the story.
Now many people are starting to watch:
Unlocking stress;
VC costs;
Token distribution;
Real income;
Number of users.
Once a project goes live, the market is no longer willing to wait several years.
No data, no users, no income—quickly abandoned by funds.
Fourth:
Meme is stealing the biggest attention from knockoffs.
This is the most ironic part.
In the past, altcoins attracted capital through technical stories.
Now, many funds have discovered:
A simple meme is actually easier to reach consensus.
As a result, a large amount of short-term capital flowed from small and mid-cap projects to Meme.
This has led to many so-called "high-tech projects" lacking liquidity after launch.
But this does not mean that knockoffs have no chance.
Only the rules of the game have changed.
Previously:
Buy a hot narrative → wait for a bull market → double.
Now:
Find projects that truly have users, income, and funding needs.
Waiting for the market to reprice.
The future may not be a "knockoff season."
Instead, it is a "structural trend of a few projects."
Most coins will increasingly resemble small companies in the stock market:
99% of them are ignored.
Only a very few projects that truly create value receive funding.
So the biggest risk of investing in knockoffs now isn't buying at the wrong price.
Instead, they bought something that would never attract the market's attention again.
In this round, the real profiteer may not be the most daring to gamble.
but the person who is the best at screening.
DYOR。 $BTC $ETH $SOL #特朗普媒体链上转账2628BTC, the nature of the matter has not been disclosed
Big Deal, brothers, Trump's media company TMTG transferred 2,628 bitcoins (about $165 million) to crypto.com exchanges. The official account casually said, "It's just escrow, not for sale."
Don't always focus on the question of "whether it's sold or not"; there are actually more complicated situations:
Perhaps forced to "move": TMTG is now losing money so much it's almost gone, with a net loss of over $400 million in Q1, and the remaining 4,261 Bitcoins are still collateralized to creditors, so they won't be able to move until 2028. This round of coin transfers may be a sign of creditors demanding stricter supervision, or preparations for subsequent borrowing and debt restructuring. Simply put, even if they weren't sold, these coins became "dead assets," and the company's cash shortage hasn't changed at all.

Perhaps it's a test of whether the market can "hold up": they only turned around once in May this year, and now they're coming again—maybe they're testing the market's reaction. First, transfer part of it to the exchange to see if the price will crash. If the market can digest it, they may quietly sell in batches later to avoid panic triggered by a one-time sell-off. This kind of "boiling frog" tactic is more covert than directly dumping the market, and it tests our mindset even more.
Perhaps to "evade regulation": the U.S. is now clamoring for crypto legislation, and Democrats are eyeing the Trump family's crypto assets, fearing they might abuse their power for personal gain. Transferring coins to third-party custodians may be intended to separate "personal assets" from "company assets" to avoid regulatory scrutiny. This kind of operation has nothing to do with whether you sell or not; it's purely for self-preservation, but it only makes the market more anxious, making you feel there's a deeper issue behind the scenes.
📉 What impact will this have on the crypto world?
Regardless of the truth, the impact on the crypto world has already arrived, and it's not just a short-term drop:
Short term: Price will definitely come under pressure: Bitcoin is currently hovering around $62,000, which is already unstable. This news of "giants transferring coins to exchanges" is just an excuse for selling stock. Retail investors panic and are likely to follow the trend in selling, so prices are likely to fall in the short term. Whether the $62,000 support can be held is hard to say.
Mid-term: The 'myth' of corporate coin holdings needs to be broken: TMTG was previously the flagship of 'Bitcoin as a corporate reserve asset,' but now, after such losses, it still needs to switch to coins, making the market start to wonder: If even Trump's company can't hold on, how much longer can other companies following the trend hold coins? This shake of confidence is even more fatal than a simple sell-off; in the future, enterprise-level funds will definitely be more cautious when entering the market.
Long-term: Stricter regulation: This has pushed the narrative of "politics + encryption" to the center of the storm. If the financial report confirms a sale or is vague, regulators will definitely monitor it even more closely, and the progress of crypto legislation may accelerate; If financial reports are disclosed transparently, even if they sell, it can still give the market an explanation and may even become a model for compliance. This crisis may be a turning point for the crypto world, moving from "wild growth" to "compliance."
Faced with this uncertainty, don't blindly guess the truth or be swept away by emotions. Just focus on these points:
Don't guess whether you've sold or not—look at the 'signals': before the earnings come out, guessing is useless. Focus on whether the $62,000 support level can hold, the flow of funds in spot Bitcoin ETFs, and the on-chain behavior of long-term holders—these objective data are far more reliable than rumors.
Reassess the risks of holding coins by companies: In the future, when companies hold coins, don't just look at "how much you hold," but "why you hold" and "whether you can hold them." For companies like TMTG, which are heavily losing and facing heavy debt pressure, the stability of holding coins is far below expectations. Don't blindly follow the crowd.
Taking "regulatory risk" seriously: Previously, we only focused on technology and markets; now we must also include "political and regulatory risks" in investment decisions. Crypto assets deeply tied to politicians or family members carry higher risks, so it's important to leave a margin of safety when investing.
Stay on the sidelines with a light position, don't trade recklessly: before the truth comes out, don't blindly buy the dip or panic and cut losses. Hold onto cash and patiently wait for financial reports and clear regulatory signals, so the market can find a new balance before taking action. The crypto world is never short of opportunities; what they lack is the ability to survive the storms. Countdown to the US stock market opening—will the scenario of storage stocks surgeing and pulling back play out tonight?
The US stock market has entered its countdown to the open. Considering recent market patterns, storage stocks are very likely to once again play out the familiar pattern of surges and pullbacks tonight, with significant short-term chasing risks!
Recently, overall sentiment in the storage sector has been weak, with no continuous incremental capital flowing in. All rebounds are due to internal stock capital competition, with very poor sustainability.
SanDisk, in particular, has established a fixed trend pattern: a slight pre-market surge, a brief opening rally, followed by concentrated profit-taking, and a fluctuating pullback throughout the day, repeatedly harvesting retail investors to chase the highs.
The core reason is that SanDisk's chip structure is extremely poor, there are too many profit-taking positions early on, and the track is not currently the main AI theme. Without institutional long-term portfolio additions, it relies entirely on short-term capital to stir things up.
In contrast, South Korea's SK Hynix has shown relatively independent performance, relying on HBM rigid orders. Even if it surges slightly and pulls back, the pullback is extremely limited, and the overall focus continues to shift upward, unlikely to experience a deep decline.
Tonight, the pre-market storage sector saw a slight recovery, which could easily trigger retail investors' desire to chase highs, but a rebound without incremental capital support is destined to be a bullish rally.
Main funds in the US stock market continue to flow into AI software and cloud services, while the storage sector is just a marginal rotation track, with its popularity fading in an instant.
Therefore, the scenario of storage stocks surging and falling tonight is very likely to play out as scheduled.
In terms of trading, firmly avoid chasing highs; focus on taking profits or reducing positions during rallies, patiently wait for buying opportunities after pullbacks stabilize, and avoid short-term market traps这是好事儿啊
短期来看是利空，但长期来看，BTC 最大的一个雷正在被拆掉。
微策8 月 1 日公布计划出售约 50 亿美元 $BTC ，8 月 2 日已经卖出 1 亿美元，还有49亿要卖。
所以短期内，市场情绪可能会持续承压。毕竟这么大规模的筹码进入市场，在没有消化完之前，BTC 想快速上涨的难度会比较大。
但换个角度看，这其实也是一次风险出清。
过去很多人担心，如果微策因为资金压力被迫大规模卖 BTC，会不会成为这一轮熊市最大的黑天鹅。甚至有人预测，本轮周期的底部可能会由“微策暴雷”引发。
现在来看，这个最大的潜在风险正在提前释放。
而且随着筹码逐渐从单一机构手里流向更多市场参与者，BTC 的持仓结构反而会更加健康。短期的卖压换来的，是长期市场风险的降低。
市场最怕的不是卖盘，而是不知道什么时候会出现的巨大卖盘。
如果这次 50 亿美元 BTC 顺利被市场消化，那么对于 BTC 长期发展来说，反而是一件好事。BTC futures arbitrage is down to 3%. Will institutions continue to do it?
Don't immediately interpret the "20% drop to 3%" as negative news for $BTC. It is more like a reminder: when institutions do cash arbitrage, they should not only look at the basis but also compare it with cash and short-term U.S. Treasury opportunity costs. A typical structure is shorting BTC futures and buying spot BTC ETFs. CoinDesk reported that during the 2021 bull market, multiple exchanges maintained basis above 20%, but now the three-month basis is about 3%, lower than the 2-year U.S. Treasury average of about 3.8%, and has lasted 157 days since February.
The lesson for ordinary users is that a thinner basis may mean narrowing futures-spot pricing errors and more effective market pricing. It may also mean that high-yield arbitrage funds are decreasing, with market making, leverage supply, order book depth, and hedging costs under pressure first. It is a signal for capital channels, not a button that guarantees $BTC will rise or fall.
In practice, first align the three-month annualized basis with the cash/Treasury yield in the same observation window, then subtract financing, borrowing, fees, slippage, margin, and counterparty costs. Don't take 3% directly as net returns, nor as risk-free gains. These two figures themselves are not equivalent to the same duration, risk, or liquidity.
Next, let's look at the basis maturity structure, perpetual funding rate, open interest, spot turnover, order book depth, and ETF capital flow. Only when net carry can it still cover opportunity cost can this arbitrage logic hold up. Otherwise, a low basis is simply a change in market conditions, not a separate trading signal.DeFi platform Spark is suspending its consumer application to pivot toward a B2B2C model, serving institutional partners like Robinhood, as reported by Coin World Network and Coindesk. Following a revenue drop from $80 million to $20 million, the company is focusing on infrastructure, with a successful $1.5 billion in stablecoin swap volume on Uniswap V4.🚨 The biggest Bitcoin bull on Wall Street just did the one thing nobody expected... he sold Bitcoin.
For years, the playbook was simple: sell MSTR shares, buy more $BTC, repeat.
Now the strategy has changed.
Last week, Strategy sold 1,637 BTC—worth roughly $102.4 million—to strengthen its balance sheet and support share buybacks.
This isn't necessarily a bearish signal.
It's a reminder that running a public company is very different from posting "never sell" on social media.
Corporate finance means managing debt, liquidity, and shareholder expectations—even if you're one of Bitcoin's biggest believers.
The lesson?
Don't just listen to what companies say.
Watch what they do.
Actions move markets. Narratives follow. #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Investing
#DailyOrbit Many people tend to overlook that Samsung's foundry division may have reached a critical business turning point.
In recent years, this business has been plagued by a thorny problem: the newly built production line has been put into operation, but external orders cannot keep up, preventing the factory from fully unleashing its capacity.
For the semiconductor manufacturing industry, idle capacity is a very challenging situation. The initial investment in wafer fabs is enormous, with factory buildings, equipment, and labor all being rigid fixed expenses. Even with top-tier process technology, if production line utilization rates fail, profitability is still out of reach.
However, the current industry situation has clearly shifted.
According to industry sources, Samsung's foundries are expected to approach full capacity operation in the second half of the year, with capacity utilization rates currently rebounding to the 70-80% range. Looking back at around 2024, the utilization rate of some advanced process production lines has not even reached 50%.
The core driving force behind this round of transformation is the rapid expansion of the AI industry.
The wave of AI computing power construction has driven up demand for HBM high-bandwidth memory, which in turn has boosted orders for advanced packaging and substrate chip foundry.
Cloud computing vendors, AI chip developers, and various high-performance computing clients are continuously placing manufacturing orders for advanced processes. Among them, the 2nm process node is seen as the core chip for Samsung's future breakthrough in the foundry sector.
Companies like Qualcomm, AMD, Google, and even Tesla are widely seen in the market as evaluating Samsung's advanced production line for foundry services.
But to completely escape the loss quagmire, there's another hurdle that can't be avoided: the performance of 2nm process products.
Simply put, it refers to the proportion of chips produced that meet qualified factory standards after production.
Currently, Samsung's 2nm yield rate is still in the ramp-up optimization stage. If it can hold the 70% watershed in the future, it will attract more leading customers to deliver large-scale mass production orders.
Therefore, whether Samsung foundry can break through depends on order volume; the real core test is whether advanced processes can achieve stable and reliable mass production output.
Assuming market demand for AI chips continues to rise, combined with the ongoing refinement of 2nm and 1.4nm processes, this once capital-intensive business has the potential to transform into a new source of profit.
Most market attention is focused on the battle between Intel and TSMC, but Samsung is also a formidable contender.
The upcoming competition in the semiconductor industry is no longer just a contest of chip design; advanced manufacturing capabilities, combined with AI-driven full supply chain integration, will be the key factors determining each company's positioning. $ETH After three years of sleep, the Ethereum OG chose to pocket a portion first
Bought eight years ago, no action for three years.
This Ethereum OG just sold 2,250 ETH, worth about $4.15 million. According to on-chain data, its early average position opening price was about $489; Based on the valuation of this transfer, ETH is priced at about $1,844, with the holding value approximately 3.77 times the original cost, representing a cumulative increase of approximately 277%.
The most noteworthy aspect of this transaction is not just the "ancient whale selling coins," but the timing point.
ETH has recently been repeatedly fluctuating around the $1,800 range, with significant resistance remaining above $1,850–$1,900. Dormant addresses have become active again at this level, indicating that some early holders are starting to realize long-term gains. However, the 2,250 ETH amount, about $4.15 million, is still insufficient to generate trend-level selling pressure across the entire Ethereum market.
So I won't go short on ETH just because one OG sells.
What really needs to be watched is the next steps: whether this address still has leftover ETH, whether it will continue to be transferred into the exchange platform in batches, and whether other long-dormant wallets will awaken in tandem. If it's just a single address reducing positions, it's more like a personal fund arrangement; If sleeping whales appear consecutively, it could turn into a warning supply signal.
The old wallet waking up doesn't necessarily mean the market is over, but at least it means someone is willing to hand over above $1,800.
This is for personal market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Bitcoin ETFs just tapped the brakes.
After three straight weeks of inflows, spot $BTC ETFs had $61.53 million in net outflows from July 27 to July 31. That’s a clear short term pause from institutions. Call it a cold front. Worth paying attention to.
Meanwhile $ETH is taking the lead. Spot $ETH ETFs brought in $27.42 million. That makes four weeks in a row of inflows. The money is rotating, and it’s happening in stages from BTC to ETH.
Alt ETF flows were a mixed bag.
$SOL saw $2.82 million in.
$XRP pulled $14.86 million.
$HYPE was the weak one with $14.75 million out.
The takeaway is simple. Institutions are not leaving crypto. They’re reallocating. BTC is cooling off for now, ETH is catching the bid, and alts are getting picked with a scalpel, not a shotgun.
Whether this rotation holds comes down to macro liquidity and how much risk appetite is in the room.
If you want the signal for what happens next, watch ETF flows and on-chain data. That’s where the real conviction shows up.
#EarningsWeekAhead #USJapanYenIntervention #30YrYieldTopOrStart $BTC $BEAT $GRVT 🚨 $SOL SOL Market Update | Solana Falls 1.62%
Solana (SOL) declined 1.62% over the past 24 hours as the broader cryptocurrency market experienced increased selling pressure. The pullback reflects cautious investor sentiment and short-term profit-taking after recent market fluctuations.
Despite today's decline, Solana remains one of the strongest Layer-1 blockchain networks, recognized for its high throughput, low transaction costs, and growing ecosystem of decentralized applications, DeFi protocols, NFTs, and Web3 projects.
In the near term, traders are closely monitoring key technical support levels and overall market momentum. A recovery in Bitcoin and improved market sentiment could help SOL regain bullish momentum, while continued weakness may lead to additional consolidation.
Long-term investors continue to view Solana as a leading blockchain with strong adoption potential, although short-term volatility remains a normal part of the crypto market.
Key Takeaway: A 1.62% decline is a relatively modest move in the crypto space. Investors should stay focused on fundamentals, monitor market developments, and maintain disciplined risk management.
#30YrYieldTopOrStart #USJapanYenIntervention #EarningsWeekAhead "I Tried to Understand: Will the US and Japan Jointly Intervene in the Yen Affect BTC?" 》
What questions to approach with in mind:
1. Why join forces to intervene in yen depreciation?
2. Who are the biggest beneficiaries and victims after intervention, and whether it will affect the crypto world?
3. How will the yen develop in the future, with short-term and long-term effects?
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Sharing is for progress, communication is for correcting perceptions. Expect different perspectives.
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[Question 1: Why join forces to intervene in yen depreciation? 】
My understanding: on the surface, it looks like it's saving the yen, but in reality, it's preventing a bigger risk;
Risk 1: The yen is already the most important financing tool and lever in the U.S. financial system, so it is important to prevent large-scale reversals in yen carry trades. Therefore, the continued disorderly depreciation of the yen may force Japan to adopt more aggressive interest rate hikes or interventions, causing arbitrage trades to suddenly reverse. The U.S.-Japan joint intervention in advance is an attempt to turn any future runaway adjustments into relatively orderly adjustments
Risk 2: Japan is the largest overseas holder of U.S. Treasury bonds ($1.1–1.2 trillion). If the yen deteriorates further, Japan will need to use its foreign exchange reserves to intervene and sell U.S. Treasuries to buy back yen. For the U.S., the issuance of U.S. Treasuries is currently at a historic high, and they hope to lower borrowing costs. If Japan continues to sell U.S. Treasuries, it will cause U.S. Treasury yields to keep rising, significantly increasing the cost of issuing bonds for the U.S.
Of course, there must be other considerations, since I only care about whether it affects me, so I won't go into detail.
[Question 2: Who are the biggest beneficiaries and victims after the intervention, and will it affect the crypto world?]
Largest beneficiaries:
1) U.S. Treasury market—to avoid Japan's large-scale sell-off of U.S. Treasuries;
2) US-Japan Financial Alliance—Currency and National Security Are Beginning to Be Linked.
Largest Victims:
1) Short yen;
2) High-leverage traders who rely on yen financing. If these trades are forced to close, highly volatile assets, including crypto assets, may face selling pressure.
Limited impact on cryptocurrency:
Causes:
1) This intervention used FIMA. Japan can mortgage US Treasuries to obtain US dollars without needing to sell off US Treasuries on a large scale, so it does not form a complete chain of "Treasury crash—yield surge—global risk asset valuation reduction."
2) The crypto world trades 24 hours a day. If large-scale crypto leverage liquidations have already occurred, there should be a clear drop over the weekend, rather than the current daily drop of around 1%. Therefore, its impact on the crypto world is limited. Of course, US stocks have not yet opened, so it is important to observe whether traditional funds are simultaneously reducing leverage
[Question 3: How will the yen develop in the later stages, including short-term and long-term effects; 】
My understanding: joint intervention can temporarily curb yen depreciation, but the core key between the dollar and yen is the "interest rate differential." The current intervention is emotionally direct and direct, but can it achieve its goal over a long period? When the "interest rate spread" persists, this "profit-seeking" nature is hard to avoid. So the only downside is for the US to cut interest rates, or for Japan to raise rates. Then both sides will go to China to "resolve related issues."
The yen issue is no longer just an internal problem for Japan; it has begun to negatively impact the U.S. Treasury market and global financial stability, further binding the financial interests of the two countries.
Conclusion: Joint US-Japan intervention can temporarily curb yen depreciation, but it does not address fundamental issues such as the US-Japan interest rate differential and Japan's fiscal expansion. The impact on the crypto world is currently limited. What truly needs to be watched going forward is whether the yen will continue to appreciate rapidly and trigger larger-scale arbitrage trade unwinding.
The above is just a study record made by a small individual to understand this matter, not some advanced research. For me, the point of sorting it out is not to predict whether BTC will rise or fall this time, but to try to understand the transmission relationship between the yen, arbitrage trading, and risk assets. When similar events occur in the future, at least we can realize earlier what paths it might use to influence BTC.
$BTC
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Sharing is for progress, communication is for correcting perceptions. Expect different perspectives.What really made the bulls stop was not 62K, but Strategy's latest disclosure that reserves are 1,637 fewer than the previous $BTC value: after the news broke, some traders immediately closed their principal-preserving long positions, and the market shifted from "testing support" to "reducing risk first."
Champion Charts believes that only after recovering 63.5K can it turn bullish; Traderbamp still believes in support, continues to buy on dips, and moves stop-losses downward; Didi the Big Demon King considers 60.5–61.2K as a condition zone, only considering long positions triggered after $DOT$BTC stabilizes. The three do not share the same direction, but rather disagree on "which support layer is worth betting on."
OKX's current price is about 62.7K. Comprehensive judgment: Selling shares is a verified fact, but it does not mean it will immediately break below the level; Before recovering 63.5K, it will still rebound weakly; if it quickly recovers after testing the conditional zone, then there will be buying value on dips. $DOT AMD is expected to lack public catalyst verification and will not list opportunities in this round.
Will you lower risk first, or wait for the lower boundary to stabilize?
These are for the purposes of opinion and information compilation only and do not constitute investment adviceKorean stocks plunged about 5%, with the storage sector becoming the market focus. Heavyweight stocks like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics came under pressure, and market sentiment cooled significantly.
However, this decline is not just an emotional outburst; it also reflects a fierce clash between bullish and bearish logic.
📌 Bearish logic:
High valuations combined with profit-taking, coupled with persistently high long-term U.S. Treasury yields, overall growth stocks are facing valuation pressure, and funds are beginning to reduce their risk exposure.
📌 Bullish logic:
Demand for AI servers remains strong, HBM supply and demand have not reversed significantly, and the storage industry's boom cycle has not been completely disrupted. As long as corporate profits continue to be realized, the medium- to long-term logic remains.
The most noteworthy question next is whether this adjustment is a short-term risk aversion for funds or the beginning of an industry turning point for prosperity.
If the price can stabilize at key support levels and rebound in trading volume, then this pullback is more likely to be a shakeout; Conversely, if a key support is broken, the market may reprice the entire storage sector.
💡 In the short term, look at sentiment; in the medium to long term, look at performance. What truly determines the direction of storage stocks remain AI demand, HBM shipments, and corporate earnings performance.
#韩股重挫5%, storing long-short signals in a standoff 镜头里没有血，只有一组数字：50亿，分三次入膛——15亿、13.7亿、21.3亿。亚马逊的手指没抖，但保险还锁着。弹匣里装的是优先股，不是普通弹头。真要击中目标，得等OpenAI扣动IPO那一下扳机。
潜伏期比我想象的更长。8年，1000亿的云订单承诺挂在风向牌上——表面看是两倍盈亏比，但测风速的人都知道，承诺是风，订单才是弹着点。如果那些订单落进AWS的靶心，这50亿就是一枚正在飞行的曳光弹；如果只是纸面合同，那就成了哑弹，卡在资产负债表的膛线上。
我看过太多这种伪装。所谓“Series C优先股”，就是一条伪装网。亚马逊不会像散户那样把脑袋伸进风里赌运气，他给自己留了退路——在目标上市前，他的股份不会暴露，不会因估值波动而偏移弹道。这才是高手的姿态：先确认退路，再锁定目标。看多的人只看到1000亿的承诺，看空的人只看到“优先”二字，而我的瞄准镜里，是弹道与风向的夹角。
黄金在这一刻反而安静了。XAU的波动被压缩成一条呼吸线，像狙击手屏住呼吸时胸腔的起伏。AI战场的硝烟没有让黄金躁动，反而让它更像一块压舱石——当巨鲸在云订单和IPO之间架设伏击圈时，避风港不需要动作，只需要存在。真正的潜伏，就是让对手忽略你的位置。
亚马逊的弹夹其实早已上满。三批子弹按照自己的节奏射出，不是连续射击，而是分组校射——第一组确认目标范围，第二组修正风偏，第三组才是最终击发。7月31日完成的不是投资，是校准动作。真正的胜负手在OpenAI的IPO那天，那才是子弹与膛线咬合的时刻。
我在瞄准镜里看到的，不是50亿或100亿的数字，而是一个狙击手对“扣扳机”的克制。他明明可以在市场欢呼时开枪，却偏偏选择等待流动性事件那道闪电照亮目标。盈亏比从来不是算出来的，是等出来的。当云订单变成收入的弹壳落地时，这枪才真正算数。
而我，还在测风。
#AMZN50BForOpenAI #美日确认联合购汇
Damn! The politicians in the US and Japan finally couldn't hold back and joined forces to throw money to save the yen, pretending to be some kind of international financial savior.
Simply put, it's a group of bureaucrats who messed up the exchange rate, suddenly realizing their cheap money game is about to collapse, quickly helping each other out to avoid the global arbitrage chain breaking and their own backs on fire.
Stop listening to official nonsense like "correcting severe underestimation" or "dealing with disorderly fluctuations." The yen was forcibly pushed from over 160 to around 155—not a market resignation, but a dirty work directly done by the US and Japanese authorities.
Japan spent over a hundred trillion yuan on its own but still wasted effort; the U.S. Treasury has to join in; Becent's notebook says "Buy 50-10 billion yen," and Trump even pretends to be brotherly — "Friends need help, right?" The last time they joined forces was a mess from over a decade ago, and now it's suddenly happening again. That wave near 164 has already scared both sides quite a bit.
The real problem isn't the exchange rate figures themselves, but the global leveraged game propped up by the low-interest yen. A bunch of smart people use the almost zero-cost yen to chase US tech stocks, US Treasuries, gold, BTC—these high-yield commodities.
When the yen strengthens, these people have to sell assets to exchange for yen to repay debts. The US AI bubble, semiconductors, and overvalued leaders were the first to suffer; Emerging market bonds, junk bonds, commodities, and even highly liquid risk assets like BTC have all been bleeding as well.
KOLs on X also bluntly stated: Last time, BTC dropped 15% in a single day in a similar scenario, and now the net short of yen has piled up to a high level, giving more fuel. Others believe, "This is forced deleveraging; the late buyers are just waiting to be liquidated."
Don't expect the US dollar index to crash along with it. This time, the US is shrewd, mainly exchanging euros for yen, precisely targeting USD/JPY to prevent its own currency from fully backing down, and preventing another surge in imported inflation.
In the short term, US stocks are hit by liquidity shocks, with amplified volatility in the Nasdaq and AI leaders, but in the long run, it still depends on whether US Treasury yields can hold steady—if Japan secretly uses the Fed's repo tools to build liquidity instead of directly dumping US Treasuries, then US long-term bonds can catch their breath for now.
Japan's domestic market is even more fragmented: export automakers and electronics giants have profits eroded by the appreciation of the yen, while domestic demand stocks, airlines, and retail stocks may be picking up some bargains. Nikkei may not be happy, so don't dream about a full-market celebration.
Analysts on X even warned, "If the yen rises another 5-10%, it will be a repeat of the chain sell-offs from August 2024, with both crypto and risk assets crying." Others sneered, "Intervention is just a short-term signal; the interest rate spread isn't enough, and in a few months, arbitrage trading will still make a comeback."
BTC will still face short-term pressure—carry and closing positions is no joke, liquidity shocks will hit you first; But if the 156 area really holds, panic will subside, and the rebound will be quick. The mid-term narrative is actually a bit sweet for BTC: when major powers begin to openly admit that exchange rate runaway needs to be put out together, the hard-asset hedging logic only gets tougher.
Don't be fooled by the official "order stability" tactic. This is a forced global liquidity redistribution operation, targeting all high-leverage positions supported by cheap yen.
Ammunition is limited; the US Exchange Rate Stabilization Fund only has tens of billions of dollars, and Japan can even push even higher amounts in a single round. The IMF can't be bothered to treat this operation as a long-term solution. What truly determines whether the yen can turn things around is whether the Bank of Japan dares to raise rates properly, whether US Treasury yields will fall, and whether Japan's finances can stop recklessly spending money.
Relying solely on spending money to intervene can at most slap speculative speculation in the face for a few days; the interest rate gap remains, and the flow of funds will eventually return.
Keep an eye on 156, hold for a breather, and keep selling if it breaks. But don't be naive—this move reveals that fiat games increasingly need major powers to join forces to put out the fire, and the market won't always be willing to accept it.价格摆在这，还硬扛？
刚截的盘口，自己看：
BTC 62,707，-0.64%
ETH 1,843，-0.81%
SOL 72.41，-0.86%
DOGE 0.06955，-1.07%
大盘集体泛绿，没一个能打的。
唯一亮点：
BICO +43.85%，0.01742
GRVT +6.70%，0.26172
但这两个能带起整个市场？别做梦了。
📉 7天走势已经说明一切：
BTC 65k → 62.7k
ETH 1,968 → 1,843
SOL 76.63 → 72.41
ETH跌幅继续跑赢BTC，汇率还在弱。
⚠️ 现在明牌三件事压着：
1. 30Y美债收益率方向未定
2. 财报周美股波动传导
3. 美日干预预期压制流动性
不是跌了就要抄底，是结构没稳之前，别伸手。
我的态度：
支撑位不破，看；破了，等。
不赌消息，只赌位置。
这周，活着比赚钱重要。
评论区聊：
你手里的单子，现在什么颜色？👇
#BTC #ETH #SOL #DOGE #BICO #30YrYieldTopOrStart #EarningsWeekAhead #USJapanYenInterventionWhy did Ethereum outperform BTC in July?
The core driving force comes from a reversal in ETF capital flows: Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $365 million that month, more than double that of Bitcoin, compared to over $1 billion in the previous two months.
This was mainly due to strong increases in holdings from major institutions such as MSSE under Morgan Stanley and BitMine. In contrast, Bitcoin's largest holder, Strategy, has remained unchanged this month.
However, it should be noted that this rebound is not a historic bottoming signal. But Ethereum has solid fundamentals: stablecoins have reached $150 billion in scale, and their staking yields outperform inflation, outperforming $BTC Bitcoin. Overall, the crypto market in July was optimistic, $ETH the divergence between Ethereum and Bitcoin has become an objective reality.#韩股重挫5%，存储多空信号对峙 韩国KOSPI单日大跌5%，核心拖累为三星、SK海力士两大存储龙头，二者合计占指数半数权重，行情呈现剧烈多空分歧。下跌直接诱因是前一日指数暴涨18%后，外资集中获利了结，叠加韩国市场高杠杆ETF触发平仓踩踏，加剧指数回调。
多派核心逻辑：AI算力需求长期坚挺，HBM高端存储订单饱满，韩国芯片出口数据持续创新高，龙头企业二季度利润创下历史峰值，行业高景气基本面并未逆转，本轮大跌仅为短期情绪修复。
空头担忧集中于周期拐点：市场担忧云厂商AI资本开支放缓，叠加国内长鑫存储产能持续落地，远期存储供给将大幅增加；前期存储股涨幅透支估值，美股存储板块同步走弱，进一步压制资金风险偏好。
短期行情震荡加剧，多空博弈白热化。中长期来看，AI算力刚需支撑存储基本盘，但产能扩张带来供给压力，板块难以单边持续走牛。本文仅资讯分析，不构成交易参考。$BTC $ETH $SNDK #美日确认联合购汇
Why is the US willing to personally intervene this time in the US-Japan joint intervention in the yen? In recent years, a large amount of capital has been borrowed in low-interest yen to buy US stocks, AI, BTC, and other dollar assets. This is the so-called yen carry trade. What the US truly worries about is that if the yen keeps depreciating, the carry trade will keep expanding; and if one day the yen suddenly appreciates sharply, the concentrated liquidation of positions will impact not only the forex market but the global financial market.
Therefore, this time the US supports Japan in stabilizing the exchange rate while expanding the FIMA tool, hoping that Japan can buy yen without having to sell a large amount of US Treasuries to raise dollars, minimizing the impact on the US Treasury market.
However, this is only about controlling the pace, not changing the trend. As long as the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates and Japan’s rate hikes remain slow, the US-Japan interest rate differential persists, and capital will ultimately flow to the dollar. Exchange rate intervention can stabilize short-term sentiment but is unlikely to change the long-term direction.
This move is more like buying the market a time window for an orderly exit rather than repeating the rapid carry trade liquidation seen in 2024. Going forward, the focus remains on US nonfarm payrolls, Federal Reserve policy, and the US-Japan interest rate differential. During today's discussion, a difficult point about the secondary market was mentioned, and there is a consensus:
Many high FDV model tokens that ranked at the top in the previous round are heading towards chronic decline.
Among them are some we have cooperated with, trusted, and heavily invested in, making this psychological shift somewhat difficult!
In recent years, many projects have essentially packaged the exit pressure from the primary market as long-termism in the secondary market.
Low circulation, high FDV, and long unlock periods are essentially a very clever financial design:
The project team and early investors first create valuation with a very small circulating supply, then maintain the price through narratives, airdrops, KOLs, market making, and exchange liquidity, and finally, through a long unlocking period, gradually transfer the paper gains from the primary market to the secondary market.
Projects like ENA, which is about to unlock again, are the most representative of this type.
The Ethena product itself is not bad; it aggregates stablecoin demand, centralized exchange funding rates, and on-chain yield narratives, truly capturing market pain points.
But a useful product does not mean the token can always enjoy a high premium.
Good products usually have intense phase-specific market movements, but that does not necessarily mean good assets. This was one of the biggest lessons from the last DeFi wave!
Users come to arbitrage, but that does not mean they are willing to hold your token long-term;
Protocols have revenue, but that does not mean the revenue effectively benefits token holders;
TVL looks good, but it may just be capital chasing subsidies, yields, and short-term certainty, not loyalty to the protocol itself.
Simply put, much on-chain capital is migratory, not resident capital, which are two completely different things.
Even a product at Uniswap's level faces long-term token capture controversies, let alone ordinary protocols.
So the greater the "great" project, the harder it is to operate in the secondary marketMonday, August 3, 2026
Several important events will impact the market this week
Trump wants to negotiate peace with Iran and pause strikes. Oil prices fell in response, but Asia-Pacific stocks opened lower and continued to fall today, not buying it; the market seems still in a correction cycle.
This week, macro data and company earnings reports will be released in a concentrated stream. Market attention is focused on Friday's US July nonfarm payroll report, which is the first full employment data since the Fed held steady in July, which will directly influence market pricing of interest rate paths in September. Meanwhile, SpaceX's first earnings report after listing is about to be released, and just two days after the report, it will see the largest unlocking volume in US stock history (about 911.5 million shares), which will put severe liquidity pressure on the market.
On July 31, Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of 265 million. Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of 9 million. Last week, Bitcoin ETFs saw a total net inflow of $172 million.
On-chain monitoring showed that WeiCe apparently sold another 300 BTC, and related wallets transferred 299.843 BTC to one address.
Funds will face significant volatility pressure this week. At such times, capital usually chooses to avoid risks, so after last week's rebound in the AI sector, sentiment did not remain high but instead returned to calm. Funds are likely to continue fleeing this week, and only if macro conditions improve in the latter half of the week will liquidity gradually recover.
Market analysis
Bitcoin is once again following the decline but not the rise. There is heavy selling pressure above 65,000, and the pressure on funds may be even greater this week. Let's see if it can break the volatility pattern. The 62,000 area is a key lower boundary of the range. If it can hold sideways here, it is likely a cyclical bottom; if it fails, there will be new lows.
The best approach is to buy a wave in US stocks and exit quickly. Wait until funds are confirmed to be returning again. After bottom-fishing on the left side, don't continue to gamble on the left side; wait for the more certain right side.
Cryptocurrency Panic Greed Index: 34 (Panic) As the investment market enters August, I believe defensive action is more important than offense.
August and September are traditionally the off-season for trading, and this year is even more unique.
On one hand, US inflation remains sticky, and the market is closely watching the September FOMC meeting. Every economic data point could affect subsequent policy expectations; On the other hand, in the first half of this year, tech stocks, AI, and storage sectors experienced an extreme rally, followed by a rapid plunge, and the market game structure has changed significantly.
Personally, I am relatively cautious about the overall market outlook for the second half of the year.
The reason is actually not complicated.
This year's rally in the storage sector has trapped a large amount of capital, with the chip structure clearly deteriorating, and the market story basically telling its end. Once the profit-making effect disappears, no matter how good the theme, it will be difficult to continuously attract new capital.
Recent market trends show that U.S. stocks have clearly diverged.
The index appears to remain strong, but it relies more on a few M7 giants like Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Meta to maintain its performance. The fact that the market leaders with trillions of dollars in market cap supporting the index does not mean the market is rising overall.
Because of this, I believe QQQ's short-term cost-performance ratio is already low, and it may even lag behind other industries in the near future.
The reason is simple:
In the past, prices had risen too much.
Any asset, when its valuation continues to rise, will enter a revaluation phase whenever the macro environment changes.
Leaders like NVDA are still excellent, but the biggest main rally has long since ended. What follows is more swing trading opportunities rather than the previous continuous upward trend.
I've always said that the storage sector used to have the strongest profit effect this year.
But now, it has become a thing of the past.
The money-making effect won't stay in one place forever.
Getting caught in this round of the market is both luck and ability; Not getting to taste it is actually the market norm.
What you really need to avoid is not missing out, but being trapped.
Once trapped at a high level, subsequent trades become very passive—not only are funds locked up, but emotions are also easily affected.
From a purely strategic perspective, the market has repeatedly played out this round of rally in the first half of the year, with very ample chip swaps. Chasing higher prices will significantly lower the risk-reward ratio.
By comparison, I prefer to wait until the market has truly plunged, no attention is drawn, and chips have settled again, before seeking new opportunities.
Trapped stocks at the top always need someone to rescue them.
But that person doesn't necessarily have to be you.
The recent trends of the Korean stock market and SK Hynix are a very direct example.
After a frenzy of surges, deleveraging rarely happens overnight; clearing out chips takes time, and repeated fluctuations, rebounds, and then declines are all normal.
From the perspective of the entire second half of the year, I believe defense will be more important than offense.
The U.S. presidential election in November remains the biggest macro variable, while the September FOMC meeting is an important window for market observation.
Before these key events are truly realized, the market is likely to continue iterating back and forth, with volatility possibly more intense than in the first half of the year.
Therefore, rather than rushing to find the next doubling stock, it's better to control risk first.
The market will never run out of opportunities.
What really matters is that when opportunities come again, you still have your capital, your mindset, and you're still sitting at the table. #财报观察员: Four draws this week, with Circle finishing $BICO That's the question surrounding $SPCX right now. The successful launch failed to send the stock higher, while the upcoming share unlock hasn't managed to push it meaningfully lower either. The market appears to be trapped in an expectation gap. Here's why it's interesting: 📉 The successful launch may have already been priced in. 📊 The unlock has become the event everyone is betting against. Meanwhile, short positioning has become extremely crowded. A large portion of the available float has reLast Friday, Trump even shouted on social media, "The gun is loaded," threatening to launch an "unprecedented military strike since World War II" against Iran. The U.S. State Department even issued a security warning to American citizens in the Middle East, advising them to "consider leaving the area."
And then? In less than 48 hours, the script was completely twisted.
Trump announced on Air Force One: Strike canceled, negotiations on Monday. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have collectively mediated peace, and Iran has also "requested cancellation."
As soon as the news broke—
Brent crude oil plunged 7.3% intraday, hitting a low of $81.55.
WTI crude fell below $80.
July's nearly 25% monthly gain was given back by nearly a third in a single day.
What about Bitcoin? It has gone up.
Breaking through $63,000, Ethereum rose over 2%, and SOL increased over 3%. US stock futures surged, with gold breaking through $4,080.
Social media erupted in cheers: "Peace is here!" Risk assets take off! ”
Don't rush. This "peace" for Bitcoin is not so simple.
Breaking it down, there are two completely opposite conduction paths:
Path A — Positive.
Oil prices plunged→ inflation expectations fell → opened room for Fed rate cuts→ liquidity improved, → risk asset valuations rose.
At the July Fed meeting, there were already three opposing votes. Why? Because of oil prices. Oil prices have surged to $100, CPI has rebounded directly—how will the Fed cut rates?
Now that oil prices have plummeted, the logic for rate cuts has been reestablished.
Path B — Negative news.
Geopolitical conflicts canceled→ risk aversion cooled→ the "wartime premium" of gold and Bitcoin faded→ short-term capital outflows.
In recent months, the Middle East has given Bitcoin a 'digital gold' safe-haven label. Now, this label is being torn off.
How is the market pricing these two paths now?
Just look at the price—
Bitcoin rose, but only by 1%. Brent fell 7%.
The logic of Path A is working, but the market is still hesitating.
Why hesitate?
Because Iran said: Trump called Iran's request to stop the attack "a new lie."
Because Iran says: the situation in the Strait of Hormuz "will not return to its pre-conflict state."
Because this conflict has lasted more than five months, Trump's "sudden reversal" is not the first time.
Bitcoin doesn't need a world war to prove itself. What it needs is a sustained depreciation of the fiat currency system—and low oil prices precisely give the central bank more excuses to inject liquidity.
In the short term, the fading of the safe-haven premium will put pressure on BTC. But in the medium term, the decline in oil prices is a godsend for global inflation control.
As long as the "rate cut expectations" are not broken, this round of corrections actually serves as a window to observe resilience.
The real question is: can this negotiation be reached?
Iran's foreign minister said negotiations with Oman have "entered the final stage." Trump said, "There is already an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz."
But an Iranian spokesperson turned and said: the new route "does not mean the Strait of Hormuz will be opened or remain closed."
One said "achieved," the other said, "That's not true."
So, this morning's market price was simply "no more war."
As for "can there really be peace?"—that's the next scenario.#MSFTCapexOnPaper Meta burned $31B of capex last quarter and has $784M of free cash flow left.
OpenAI responded by cutting its cheap model’s price 80%.
Never in history has an industry spent this hard to make its product cost less :-)After the US and Iran returned to the negotiating table, the crude oil market reacted first.
The snapshot of the leaderboard at 17:51 today shows WTI crude oil down 1.94%, Brent crude oil down 0.82%. Both retreated simultaneously, but WTI's decline was more than twice that of Brent, as capital is compressing the previously factored-in geopolitical premium in oil prices.
This news will not directly transmit from the negotiating table to the candlestick charts of $BTC and $ETH; inflation and US Treasury bonds stand in between.
As crude oil continues to fall, the upward pressure of energy prices on inflation will weaken; cooling inflation expectations may ease the upward pressure on US Treasury yields; after discount rates decline, the valuation space for risk assets can improve.
Currently, the negotiation news lowers the probability of conflict escalation, but actual supply has not immediately increased. Therefore, a single day of oil price retreat is insufficient to confirm a liquidity shift. If crude oil continues to weaken and US Treasury yields fall simultaneously later, the crypto market may gain more complete macro support.
Another scenario is also clear: if negotiations make no substantial progress and oil prices quickly recover their losses, the market will resume trading inflation and interest rate pressures.
Geopolitical easing transmitted to the crypto market must pass through two stations: oil prices and US Treasury bonds. Skipping one often results in only a wave of sentiment on the market.
#美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐 Let me "translate" Iran's diplomatic rhetoric for everyone:
But from this passage, it is clear that Iran's diplomatic stance remains tough, but in practice, positive signals have already appeared, refusing to acknowledge the strait issue as Iran's fault and instead pushing the issue back to the United States
The implication is that shipping can be resumed in the strait, but only if the U.S. lifts the blockade on Iran and recognizes that the strait issue is led by Iran and Oman.
So what is the practical significance of the US-Iran situation? Why have energy prices started to fall?
As I pinned this week's macro minutes and interpretations, the current focus on the US-Iran situation is not whether the two sides will fight or quarrel, but whether the strait can be opened. As for who will, how, and who will intervene, people don't really care for now
Therefore, Iran can begin communication with Oman to resume shipping. Once a preliminary agreement is reached, it will be an important signal of easing international energy prices, which is why the market still views Iran's diplomatic rhetoric as optimistic
As long as Iran and Amen reach an agreement to announce a new joint management plan for the strait, it can be seen as a downgrade in the US-Iran situation. Even if another war of words breaks out, as long as actual shipping is not affected, it is not a big problem
Currently, the focus is on making a ranking that influences weight
Whether the Iran-Oman concession agreement will be implemented> will actual shipping in the strait be restored> will the US and Iran officially start negotiations> will the US and Iran be in talks + military friction
This weight of influence is very likely to become the main roadmap for U.S.-Iran diplomacy at this stage: first agreement, then restoration and resolving core strait issues, both sides sitting down to talk, and finally the mutual criticism phase!
As for the market, the short-term decline in international energy and US oil prices is a good proof. At this stage, let's see if US oil can reach 75%! #美伊重回谈判桌, oil prices pulled back $SPCX The next 72 hours are critical.
The first earnings report on August 4, 20% unlock on August 6. They come one after another.
The stock price was cut from 225 to 108, more than halved. The initial day price of 150 is also lost. No need to tell the story—rocket, Starlink, commercialization, the market knows it all. The question is who is still willing to buy at this level.
The earnings report has nothing new, the unlock selling pressure directly crushes the short-term.
If the earnings beat expectations, capital will retell the growth story, and locked shares may not necessarily be dumped.
Neither bullish nor bearish. Watch three things: #SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即
Whether the earnings report has new growth points. Whether there is real selling after the unlock. Whether the stock price can recover.$BICO Tonight's Price Update
#30YrYieldTopOrStart #USJapanYenIntervention
🔥 **TONIGHT'$BICO PRICE UPDATE & TREND TONIGHT** 🔥
### 📊 **Tonight's price movement**
* **Current trading price:** The **$BICO/USDT** pair is oscillating around the **$0.017 – $0.018** zone.
* **Intraday Range:** Ranges between **$0.0118 – $0.0186**.
* **Liquidity & Volume:** 24-hour trading volume recorded strong growth, reflecting a sudden increase in demand and a return to vibrancy from short-term cash flows.
### 📈 **Technical Analysis & Tonight's Trend**
#### **1. Key milestones to look out for:**
* **Critical Support Zone:** **$0.0150 – $0.0160**. This is the short-term price base that keeps the recovery structure from being broken.
* **Near Resistance Zone:** **$0.0185 – $0.0200**. Psychological barriers hinder the continued upward momentum.
#### **2. Tonight's trend scenario:**
* 🟢 **Positive Scenario:** If the demand holds the **$0.0165 – $0.0170** cushion**,$BICO will continue the accumulation rhythm before breaking the **$0.0186** resistance to retest the **$0.0200+** area.
* 🔴 **Cautionary Scenario:** In case the short-term profit-taking pressure increases, causing the H4 candle to be pushed through the **$0.0150** mark, the price is at risk of retreating back to test the old bottom around **$0.0120 – $0.0130**.
### 💡 **Perspective & Trading Strategy**
* **Reference Entry Point:** **$0.0160 – $0.0170** (Priority is to wait for the support retest rhythm).
* **Stop Loss:** **$0.0148** (Breakout of the nearest support).
* **Take Profit:** **TP1:** $0.0185 | **TP2:** $0.0210+
⚠️ *Note: The market fluctuates continuously. The article is for informational purposes only, not financial advice. Always DYOR and set a full Stop Loss!*
#BICO #Biconomy #OKXOrbit #Crypto #Trading
#30YrYieldTopOrStart 真正危险的不是美元兑日元跌了 8 个点。
而是市场开始重新定价“做空日元”的风险。
过去几年，低息日元一直是全球资金加杠杆的重要来源。一旦日元升值趋势被确认，套利资金就必须降低仓位，卖出风险资产换回日元。
汇率只是表面。
背后的资金链重构，才是全球市场真正关注的东西。
如果空头开始撤退，这场日元战争可能才刚刚进入下一阶段。美股马上开盘，今晚海力士与闪迪走势或将彻底分家
#30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？ #美日确认联合购汇 #财报观察员：本周四场开奖，Circle压轴 今晚美股开盘后，存储两大核心标的海力士、闪迪走势或将彻底分家，彻底走出完全相反的行情，赛道差异化红利和风险会全面兑现！同样是存储芯片企业，二者近期走势差距持续拉大，核心根源就是业务赛道的时代属性完全不同。韩国海力士深耕HBM高端内存，是AI大模型训练、高性能算力服务器的核心刚需配件，当下行业产能紧缺、订单锁满，机构普遍给予高估值溢价，资金长线抱团意愿极强，哪怕板块震荡也能守住支撑，走势稳健抗跌。而闪迪主营传统NAND闪存，主要应用于消费级存储和企业级冷数据存储，属于AI产业的后端长线逻辑，短期无法快速兑现业绩，自然得不到短线资金青睐。加上闪迪前期涨幅较大，盘面上堆积大量获利筹码，但凡小幅拉升就会出现集中止盈抛压，冲高回落成为固定剧本。今晚美股科技整体情绪偏暖，但资金只会持续追捧HBM热点赛道，不会回流传统闪存板块。后续海力士大概率维持高位震荡偏强走势，随时具备突破潜力；闪迪则持续宽幅震荡、反复拉扯，难有持续性行情。做存储赛道的朋友务必分清二者本质区别，不要混为一谈盲目持仓How long will it take Strategy’s team to realize what the real issue is?
The moment Saylor sells Bitcoin, he breaks the very narrative that built Strategy . From that point on, STRC becomes increasingly correlated with Bitcoin instead of trading on investor confidence in its cash reserves and dividend sustainabilityAfter the Korean market opened today, Samsung Hynix continued to fall. Whether it can stop falling depends on whether the US stock market performs well tonight. However, pre-market analysis continues the pullback trend seen last Friday in the US market and today's Korean market.
If this pullback is no lower than last Thursday's low, the future tends to favor a W-bottom retest for the future. If it can hold up, it's a W-bottom; if not, it's a wedge downward. It will likely replicate the trend of the big market since last October.
Although I also believe the major trend of the financial bubble hype phase in storage has ended and completely peaked, the story of the application layer is not over. After all, storage is not about MEME coins or air, and the major trend in AI applications is becoming clearer. If we spend two or three years building fundamentals, there is still hope to return to previous highs.
Looking at the market purely, last week's rebound was the result of institutions entering the market; the current decline is due to retail investors belatedly rushing in and then switching over by institutions. The current stage should resemble the scenario after the gold and silver bubble burst and crashed at the beginning of the year, meaning there is no one-sided trend, but rather a broad or short-term sawtooth market. In other words, you can do both long and short trades, but they all feel uncomfortable and not smooth. $SKHYNIX $SKHY $MU Michael Saylor, the world's largest corporate BTC holder, sold 1,638 BTC (average price $63,957, total $104.7 million) between July 27 and August 2—the company's second largest sell-off this year. Selling coins is not about being bearish, but rather about "transfusion" into preferred STRC dividends and buybacks: 52.4 million yuan for dividends and 52.3 million yuan for STRC buybacks. 📈 Data Breakdown • Scale: Reduced holdings of 1,638 BTC, average price 63,957, inflow of 104.7 million USD; The second largest sale of the year, just behind 7/6's 3,588 BTC (about 216 million). • Purpose: 52.4 million in dividends + 52.3 million in STRC buybacks, almost evenly split—essentially "using coins to raise shares." • Reserve: After selling, still holds 842,138 BTC, with a cumulative cost of $63.5 billion (average price about $7,540). • Historical coordinates: Sold 32 BTC in early June, marking the first disclosure of coin sales since tax-loss transactions in 2022; Now, from "buying only, not selling" to regular share reductions, the paradigm has loosened. • Compared to real-time (8/3): BTC 62,626 ▼0.81%, ETH 1,842 ▼0.84%, SOL 72.45 ▼0.82%, XRP 1.065 ▼Oil prices plunged 9% in one day.
What exactly happened in the market?
"Oil prices have fallen. Is there something wrong with the global economy?"
But this time, it feels more like a rapid return of risk premiums.
Previously, the market had long worried about escalating tensions in the Middle East, as crude oil prices contained a large amount of "war risk."
When the market discovers:
The conflict did not escalate further;
Reduced risk of supply disruptions;
The previously driven oil prices began to correct rapidly.
But here's an easily overlooked point:
Falling oil prices are not always good news.
If the reason is:
✅ Geopolitical risks are decreasing
→ Favorable for the market
But if the reason is:
❌ Global demand is declining
→ may indicate that the economy is cooling down
So right now, the market's real focus isn't on how much oil prices have fallen.
Instead:
Why the drop?
🛢 Crude oil: Continued short-term pressure
Risk premiums are fading.
🟡 Gold: Short-term pressure is increasing
Some safe-haven funds were withdrawn.
📉 Inflation: Expectations of decline are strengthening
The Fed has more room to cut rates.
₿ BTC: Short-term neutral to bullish
But ultimately, it still depends on dollar liquidity.
This oil price plunge serves as a reminder to the market:
Many asset prices are not determined by current facts.
Instead, it is determined by the "future risk" of the market trading in advance.
A few days ago, everyone was trading wars.
Begin trading peace today.
The next step to look at is what the drop in oil prices actually means:
Inflation eases,
Or is global demand starting to slow down?
Is this oil price plunge a positive sign for the market, or a sign of economic cooling?
$CL $BTC #美伊重回谈判桌, oil prices pulled back $ASP — ASPECTA
Heavy selling has created fear, but this is often where opportunities begin. Trading volume is increasing, whales are watching oversold assets, and a strong recovery from support could surprise the market.
EP: 0.0120–0.0122
TP: 0.0130 | 0.0138 | 0.0145
SL: 0.0115The risky game of earning 1.5 billion and halving reserves: Tether hoards 146 tons of gold—who stole USDT's liquidity security cushion?
This time, the stablecoin empire's rain shelter has already leaked.
Don't think that when the whole internet crashes and liquidity is trampling, swapping all your assets for USDT and lying in a cold wallet is the safest and most resilient risk control method. In Tether's just-released Q2 audit report, the shocking financial details hidden behind $1.5 billion in profits and 146 tons of physical gold are sending the most dangerous liquidity alert to global capital.
On the evening of July 31, Tether officially announced the results of its financial audit for the second quarter of 2026.
The report states that the company achieved a net operating profit of as high as $1.5 billion in the second quarter, significantly increasing its holdings by 14 tons of gold, pushing its total reserves past 14.62 tons and expanding total assets to $187.75 billion. Retail investors and KOLs across the internet have launched another frenzied idol-making campaign, praising USDT as "the greatest money-printing machine in Web3, hoarding gold to fight dollar depreciation, with an insecure barrier." Everyone thinks that in this turbulent early August, as long as they hold onto USDT, they can secure a steady breakthrough.
But if you think your safety cushion is unbreakable because of the 1.5 billion yuan in huge profits and the dazzling 146 tons of gold, then you've completely overlooked the glaring figure at the bottom of your balance sheet that was cut in half.
Tether's "Excess Reserve Buffer" has collapsed from $8.23 billion at the end of Q1 to $4.11 billion by the end of Q2.
This tears down the safest asset defense that is the primary pillar of trust in Web3.
Let's calculate the most direct liquidity run accounts.
The reserve buffer is an "excess liquidity safety cushion" that Tether holds in its own pocket after deducting redemption liabilities for all circulating tokens, used to guard against extreme market black swan events and when institutions concentrate large withdrawals.
Gold is indeed a valuable asset that can resist inflation. But in the extremely oxygen-deprived August deleveraging tsunami, gold is not cash at all.
If major market makers and allocation funds suddenly demand the redemption of tens of billions of dollars in cash fiat currency, can Tether instantly turn the heavy 146 tons of physical gold bars from the Swiss vault into US dollar cash into their bank accounts?
It cannot.
When the $1.5 billion profit and funds that should have served as a safety cushion were heavily allocated by the authorities to gold, Bitcoin, and various "strategic startup equity investments" that cannot be liquidated in the short term, the underlying liquidity buffer cushion of USDT has effectively been drained by half.
If the August wave of yen carry unwinding and the US Treasury crash trigger tens of billions in concentrated redemptions by market makers, leaving only 4.1 billion in safety cushions, it could be trampled through within a day, dragging the entire crypto market into a liquidity cliff.
I used to set up defensive positions and was a true USDT die-hard supporter. Whenever the market falls, I feel that USDT and cold wallets are the safest in the world, so I sell all my counterfeit coins into USDT and lie flat. But the night before last, I carefully read Tether's Q2 earnings report at my computer, saw the Excess Buffer breaking in half, and compared it to their aggressive buying of 14 tons of non-liquid gold, I broke out in a cold sweat. When a tsunami hits, this safety air cushion is simply not enough for the giants to trample on. That night, I didn't hesitate for a second—I exchanged 70% of my USDT for US Treasury bonds (RWA) and gold tokens, and even converted it directly into physical fiat currency.
This risk control muscle memory exchanged from cracks in stablecoin chassis preserved my only refuge fire in early August.
Cold data doesn't lie, but flashy gold often hides deadly hollow dams.
In the coming weeks, they closely watched the daily net redemption of Tether's official wallet on the mainnet and the USDT burn speed of major market makers like Cumberland. Before reinflateing this halved safety cushion, keep your USDT exposure tight and never close your eyes as if it's a truly safe haven.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard 비트코인 대형 저점 형성 주장, 72,000달러 목표와 레버리지 매수 권고는 사실 확인이 불가능한 시장 예측에 불과하다. 이미 가격에 반영된 것과 아직 반영되지 않은 변수를 어떻게 구분해야 하는가? 원문의 핵심 주장은 비트코인이 60,000달러를 저점으로 확정했고, 68,000~72,000달러 구간에서 분할 청산을 목표로 하며, ORDI는 3.4달러, UNI는 장기 36달러를 전망하는 내용이다. 그러나 이 글에서 제시된 모든 수치는 근거 데이터 없이 단언된 목표가격이며, 50~100배 레버리지 권고는 리스크 관리 원칙을 심각하게 훼손한다. 파생 포지셔닝 관점에서 보면, 현재 시장의 핵심 변수는 방향성 예측이 아니라 레버리지 청산 강도와 펀딩비 정상화 속도다. 만약 60,000달러가 실제 대형 저점이라면, 이는 현물 수요가 선물 매수보다 먼저 확인되어야 한다. 반면 원문처럼 50~100배 레버리지로 진입하는 포지션은 소규모 가격 변동에도 청산되며, 오히려 추가 하락 시 청산 물량이 시$CORE This round of V-shaped bottoming has started a rebound. Optimistic projection: aiming for 1U by the end of 2026, relying on the BTCFi ecosystem; Sprint to 5U from late 2026 to 2027, 10U by 2028; 100U is a long-term long-term goal. Holding onto their leverage and quietly waiting for ecosystem implementation and the arrival of new bull market funds.Micron $MU has officially completed its correction back done to the 0.5 fib level.
Perfectly coinciding with the ‘oops’ level/undercut and rally.
In 3-6 months the $MU price will be unrecognisable from today.
I’m a buyer here.$BTC: IBIT transferred $122 million—don't rush to translate it as 'dumping' just yet.
BlackRock's IBIT transferred 194.807 BTC to Coinbase Prime, worth approximately $122.03 million. When you see "institutional wallets transferred to trading platforms," the market's first reaction is usually to sell, but this time it's not yet time to draw a conclusion.
Let's look at the proportions first.
As of July 31, IBIT held approximately 737,118.26 BTC, valued at approximately $46.18 billion. This transfer accounts for only about 0.264% of its total BTC holdings, making it closer to a partial position allocation rather than a centralized fund-level withdrawal. Based on transfer valuation, the corresponding BTC price is about $62,640.
In addition to trading, Coinbase Prime also handles institutional custody, clearing, and subscription/redemption services. Therefore, transferring BTC into Prime may be a sale preparation or simply an internal address adjustment, ETF subscription and redemption settlement, or liquidity management. On-chain data can confirm asset movements but cannot confirm their final use alone.
Another notable data point is that as of June 30, IBIT's return since its inception was 12.18%, compared to -45.62% over the past year. This contrast shows that BTC's recent drawdowns have a significant impact on stage returns, and also explains why the market is especially sensitive to every move of institutional wallets.
My judgment is simple: this $122 million BTC transfer is enough to cause short-term sentiment turmoil, but when placed within IBIT's approximately $46.18 billion holdings, it doesn't qualify as a directional withdrawal. What really needs to be watched next is the flow of Coinbase Prime's subsequent addresses and whether IBIT experiences continuous net outflows.
A transfer is a signal, not an answer.
This is for personal market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard This round of news is considered a relief of the negative news for Bitcoin, and there is no sign of a trend reversal.
After the U.S. paused its attack on Iran, oil prices dropped by about 5%, easing inflationary pressures. But Iran denies negotiating with the U.S., and that the Fed still has three votes supporting rate hikes, so both risks are not truly over.
More importantly, after falling oil prices, Bitcoin still couldn't hold above 63,000, indicating that buying pressure did not keep up.
$BTC In the short term, it's most likely to be digested between 62,000 and 65,000. Once the situation has cooled down and the 64,000 level is stabilized again, only then will there be a chance to test 65,000. If negotiations fail or oil prices rebound, first watch 62,000; if weak, guard around 60,000.
Personal views and do not constitute investment advice.
#特朗普媒体链上转账2628BTC, the nature of the matter has not been disclosed What if the biggest Bitcoin bull is selling... right near the bottom? 👀
Michael Saylor is trimming Bitcoin, and the market can't stop talking about it.
Ironically, some of the most important bottoms are formed when confidence is at its weakest and even the strongest hands are forced to make difficult decisions.
No one can call the exact bottom with certainty.
But if fear is peaking while selling pressure is being absorbed, we may be much closer to the end of this bear phase than most people realize.
The market often looks the darkest just before momentum starts to shift.
Stay patient. Stay disciplined.
The trend won't change overnight—but it just might be starting.
#DailyOrbit $MU Micron began to weaken before the market opened tonight, with losses expanding steadily. After the market officially opened, the entire storage sector plunged collectively, falling over 3.4% in the evening.
The previous surge had accumulated considerable profits, and although SK Hynix's earnings saw a sharp increase in profits, they fell short of market expectations, cooling sentiment across the entire storage sector.
Additionally, rising U.S. Treasury yields have led funds to withdraw from highly volatile tech stocks, making bulls hesitant to add more positions and intensifying short-term selling pressure.
In the short term, weak volatility will continue. To rebound again, we need to wait for positive news in the storage industry to boost capital confidence.
$SNDK $SKHYNIX #30年期美债, the top or a new beginning? #美日确认联合购汇 #美联储即将公布利率决议 $NVDA
$MU
$SKHYNIX
With the countdown to the US stock market opening, the storage sector should be cautious of intense pulls!
With the US stock market opening approaching, funds throughout the market have entered a state of preparation. Tonight, the storage sector is destined to experience a fierce rally, with bullish and bearish tugs unabated. All friends holding positions in storage stocks must remain highly vigilant! Recently, the overall cycle of the storage industry has warmed up, but the strength and weakness of niche sectors vary greatly, and the old pattern of rising and falling is no longer the same. The HBM track, a rigid demand for AI training, continues to dominate the market main line. South Korea's SK Hynix is deeply tied to leading computing power manufacturers like Nvidia, locking in long-term orders. Capacity exceeds supply, providing strong stock price support. Even with market fluctuations, it can hold key support levels, with trend resilience far ahead of its peers. SanDisk, which focuses on NAND flash, has a completely different logic: it only benefits from forward cold data storage demand and lacks short-term funding catalysts and favorable order placements. After an initial rally, a massive amount of profit-taking positions accumulated, and pre-market pressure persisted. Any slight rally would trigger concentrated take-profit selling pressure, with no sustained upward momentum. At the same time, the main focus of U.S. tech continues to shift, with AI cloud companies like Microsoft and Amazon continuously attracting funds, further diverting incremental funds from the storage sector. At tonight's opening, internal differentiation in the storage sector will further amplify. SK Hynix is expected to recover from the decline, and SanDisk is very likely to continue its wide-range volatility, surge, and pullback. For short-term trading, it is essential to avoid the risk of SanDisk chasing highs, accurately distinguish the strengths and weaknesses of storage sub-sectors, and avoid blindly following sector sentiments to avoid the trap of picking up from volatile fluctuations$SPCX
And again, the same question
Unlocking is a completely obvious matter, so why does it seem the market won't trade in advance?
Why do you feel that the current price still contains a lot of "unpriced elements" related to the unlocking information?
It is undeniable that before the last batch of "non-core" shares is fully unlocked in December, the stock price will likely be suppressed by this factor for a long time
However, the expectation that there is still a large amount of unpriced space remains debatable