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带着学员干以太，市场从来不缺机会，缺的是一双发现机会的眼$ETH #30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？ 过去$DOGE 的涨跌完全绑定马斯克的社交媒体动态，但是最近很长一段时间，马斯克极少发布关于狗狗币的利好言论，没有了消息催化，DOGE彻底失去上涨动能。
大盘震荡的时候，资金更愿意选择BTC、BNB这类避险标的，而非狗狗币这种纯MEME币种。同时比特币主导权不断加强，山寨币整体吸血效应明显。
狗狗币总量无限增发，没有销毁机制，长期通胀压制估值，这是它与生俱来的硬伤。本轮下跌之后，短期很难再度迎来大的炒作行情。
仅适合极小仓位娱乐性交易，不能作为投资配置，基本面没有任何改善空间。#美伊重回谈判桌, oil prices pulled back
Crude oil suddenly fell 5%, has the positive news for BTC really arrived?
The US and Iran returned to the negotiating table, the US paused a new round of strike plans, and the market quickly dropped some "war premiums." US oil once fell by about 5%.
On the surface, this seems like the favorite script for risk assets:
Oil prices fell
→ Easing inflationary pressures
→ US Treasury yields may fall
→ Valuation pressure on tech stocks and BTC eased
But here's an easily overlooked issue:
Resuming negotiations does not mean the risk is eliminated.
What truly determines the market trend is not the news headline, but the following three confirmation signals:
1️⃣ Whether crude oil can continue to fall rather than a rapid V-shaped rally
2️⃣ Whether the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields are declining simultaneously
3️⃣ Can the Nasdaq and BTC truly strengthen?
Special attention: if oil prices have already fallen but BTC remains subdued, it suggests that market risk appetite may not have truly recovered, and funds are still waiting for more certain results.
So my judgment is:
This round of price pullbacks has opened a breathing room for risk assets, but it does not yet equate to a new round of gains.
The market first trades "negotiation expectations," then verifies whether negotiations can proceed and whether transportation in the Strait of Hormuz can resume.
Which trend do you prefer?
A: Negotiations are progressing, and oil prices continue to fall
B: Just a brief pause, oil prices rebounded
C: First, check the US Treasury yield and BTC confirmation
#美伊重回谈判桌, oil prices have pulled back #BTC #原油 #美债 #美股
This is for market observation purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.$UB It has risen a lot in the past three weeks, and there hasn't been much pullback. This inevitably reminds me of $BEAT, which also rose similarly back then. I remember that when $BEAT rose, there was basically no pullback, and when it fell, there was basically no correction. It is a straight rise and a straight fall. —————————————————— Let's take a look at its contract data. It can be seen that after it rises, its contract open interest increases, while the long-short ratio of contracts decreases. This shows that quite a few people are indeed shorting right now. Let's look at its longer-term data. It can be seen that the long-short ratio of its contract follows a very clear pattern. From the chart, there are two relatively obvious peak positions, corresponding to changes in open interest showing two downward sharp points. Based on its trend, I personally infer that if it wants to rise at present, the resistance from bears is very significant. Moreover, as time goes on, the number of short positions it accumulates keeps increasing. Let's compare it again with $BEAT's situation at the time. Their overall trends are quite similar, and they should have reached a high point at the moment. If nothing too unexpected happens, $UB might still need to push the pin upward. —————————————————— So, what is the current strategy? My personal view is to wait for $UB to push upward, and after insertion, consider shorting.#美日确认联合购汇
After 15 years, the US and Japan have finally joined forces again. On August 3, Japan's Ministry of Finance officially confirmed that last Friday, it coordinated with the U.S. Treasury to buy yen. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent also confirmed this simultaneously, stating that it "will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention." From the 1998 Asian financial crisis to today, 28 years later, intervention to buy yen has once again occurred.
Why now?
Because the yen really can't hold up. Last Thursday, the US dollar briefly touched 163.73 against the yen, hitting its lowest level in about 40 years. Import prices have been pushed higher, inflationary pressures have intensified, and both household wallets and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's public approval rating have been under pressure. Japan has intervened unilaterally several times, but the effects were not lasting—the interventions in April and May only brought about a brief rebound. This time, the United States must be involved to join in.
How large is it?
Bank of Japan data shows that during Thursday's intervention in the New York market, Japan may have sold about $58.97 billion to buy yen. In addition, the joint operation with the U.S. last Friday involved two rounds of investment totaling about 14 to 15 trillion yen. The effect was immediate—USD/JPY fell from above 164 all the way to around 156, and on August 3 briefly touched 155.22, hitting a nearly three-month high.
But the problem is: the promises are tough, and ammunition is limited.
Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said, "We will continue to jointly implement foreign exchange market interventions without hesitation." Besent also said, "We will not hesitate to participate in subsequent joint interventions." However, JPMorgan estimates that the U.S. Treasury's Exchange Rate Stabilization Fund has about $40 billion available, while a single round of intervention from Japan would require $35 to $60 billion. The money provided by the U.S. might be just a fraction of Japan's money.
There is a clever technical detail: the FIMA buyback tool.
Japan's Ministry of Finance also announced that the Federal Reserve's Foreign and International Monetary Authority Repurchase Facility (FIMA Repurchase Facility) will be implemented in the future. Japan can obtain short-term dollar liquidity by temporarily pledging U.S. Treasury bonds, without directly selling U.S. bonds to raise intervention funds. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent also stated that the U.S. will consider expanding the size of FIMA instruments in the coming months. Without FIMA, Japan's intervention in the exchange rate would have to sell US Treasuries for US dollars, which would further push up US Treasury yields and hurt global financial markets. With FIMA, this transmission chain has been cut off.
What is even more noteworthy is that central banks worldwide are collectively splitting.
On the Bank of Japan side, the benchmark interest rate remains unchanged at 1%, but review committee member Takada Venture Holdings voted the only opposing vote, advocating a 25 basis point hike to 1.25%. Governor Kazuo Ueda said the exchange rate has a greater impact on inflation than before, suggesting a possible rate hike as early as September.
On the Bank of England's side, the rate remained unchanged at 3.75%, but the number of committee members advocating rate hikes increased to three—Chief Economist Huw Pill, Megan Greene, and Catherine Mann all voted to raise rates.
On the Fed's side, the July meeting kept rates unchanged, but three regional Fed chairs voted in favor of a 25 basis point hike, the first time since 2016.
The three major central banks are all torn apart internally. Becent even publicly called on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates further—the U.S. Treasury Secretary directly called for other countries' central banks to raise rates, which itself was a signal.
Japan and the US jointly intervened, stabilizing the yen in the short term. However, the history of April interventions shows that interventions without sustained policy support have limited effectiveness. The real turning point for the yen does not depend on how many dollars the Bank of Japan sells, but on when it actually raises interest rates. All three central banks face the dilemma of "inflation not coming down, the economy not holding on," and each choice's choice will affect the others.
One is the United States and Japan, which are trying to unite to support the yen, while the other is a global central bank system that is internally divided. The simultaneous occurrence of these two events is itself a signal worthy of ongoing attention.👇这个图保存好，或许您会终身受益！
很多朋友问我，6月23日，为何要清掉所有的A股，以及大多数美股仓位，因为A股平均股价已经见顶。
回顾过去几轮A股的大牛市，都有很强的政策性驱动，以及央行的配合。
2005年-2007年，股权分置改革，属于制度红利，叠加05年汇改，RMB大幅升值，热钱涌入，政策+资金，带来了一波最狂热的上涨。
2008年-2010年，四万亿强力救市，央行大水漫灌，大幅降息降准，信贷极度宽松，实现了A股快速的飙升。
2013年 - 2015年，“互联网+”创业盛行，叠加并购重组政策放宽，两融放宽限制，场外配资野蛮生长，科技股概念炒作疯狂，当时代表就是乐视。
2018年 - 2021年，价值投资元年，公募发行潮与核心资产抱团，拥抱现金奶牛，北向资金与公募基金掌握定价权，资金高度集中抱团白酒、新能源（“茅指数”、“宁组合”）等行业龙头。
2024年-2026年，金融政策组合拳出击，降准降息落地，央行创新设立股票回购增持再贷款机制，国家基金扶持芯片国产替代，AI产业等，带来了凌厉的上涨！
可以看到，基本每一轮A股大牛市，都有几个核心特征，国家政策或者资金大力度支持，叠加持续多次的货币政策刺激(降准降息)，实现了快速的上涨与收割行情。
周期如同钟摆，一刻不停，都有相似的规律，而且随着北向资金和沪港通的联动，中美走势已经从以前滞后1-2个月，目前基本缩短到2-4周，但依旧有很多时间差套利思路。
举个例子，比如MLCC，当时深圳华强北开始抢货 $MRAAY 的陶瓷电容器，现货价格与股价，线下实体现货从2月份就开始有囤积涨价的现象，而村田股价从4月1日才开始启动，从11刀涨到38刀。中国MLCC龙头，风华高科从4月中旬才开始启动，从20涨到83，晚了两周，跨时间差套利，机会依旧很多。
但目前基本已经到顶，长鑫的上市，就是标志，国家队优秀的操盘手，画图画的很漂亮，等待下一个周期的拐点，耐心是投资最好的武器。
接下来，反而可以把盈利的资金，去看看横盘许久的黄金和 #BTC 了，仅做参考！🧐 $APT 是又一个「技术好看、估值虚高、落地缓慢」的典型高性能 L1。早期靠 VC 和 Move 语言概念拉满估值，如今价格已从历史高点回撤约 97%，却仍难摆脱解锁压力与同质化竞争的双重困境。
早期分配高度集中，投资者与核心贡献者的四年解锁周期要到 2026 年 10 月才基本结束。此前持续的供应释放制造了大量卖压。虽然 2026 年初进行了 tokenomics 改革（硬顶 21 亿、降低质押奖励、提高 gas 并全部销毁），但这些措施属于「亡羊补牢」，能否真正扭转供需失衡仍需时间验证。
宣传「高 TPS、低延迟、并行执行」很响亮，但真实用户留存和可持续交易需求并不突出。网络活跃度在部分时间段出现明显冷却，DeFi TVL 和日活数据难以支撑当初的高估值故事。很多项目停留在挂名或短期激励阶段，真正有网络效应的杀手级应用依然稀缺。
与 Sui、Solana 等同赛道项目正面硬刚。Sui 在开发者活跃度、部分交易量指标上表现更强；Solana 则拥有更成熟的生态和用户基础。Aptos 的差异化优势（Move 语言、并行执行）并未转化为明显的护城河，容易陷入「技术差不多、生态却更弱」的尴尬局面。
早期节点与验证者分布相对集中，团队与基金会影响力较大。去中心化叙事与实际控制力之间存在落差，长期治理风险不容忽视。
「新一代高性能公链」这个故事已经讲了太久。在当前市场更关注 RWA、真实收入、AI 落地的环境下，纯 L1 性能叙事的吸引力明显下降。资金更愿意流向有明确现金流或强需求的赛道，而不是继续为「可能很快」的采用率买单。
$ETH $BTC $BTC has bounced back from around 63,000 in the past two days, and among altcoins, only $UB has been somewhat active. The vast majority have remained flat—this indicates that funds within the market have not shown signs of "mainstream profits flowing downwards." Money is just defending within the mainstream; no one dares to increase exposure to higher-risk assets. The real rally is when hotspots light up one after another; the current structure of mainstream volatility and altcoin stability looks more like a weak rebound rather than a trend reversal. Don't chase altcoins at this level.📊 $XRP Contract Liquidation Express (August 3)
According to liquidation data, short-cycle bulls are being pinned down and rubbed wildly, but medium- and long-term bears have directly collapsed...
The liquidation amount in the past hour was approximately $199,400
The long position liquidation was about $199,000
Short liquidation is about $373.27
The liquidation amount in the past 4 hours was approximately $396,900
Long positions were liquidated at about $395,700
Short liquidation was about $1141.82
The liquidation amount in the past 12 hours was approximately $1.0327 million
Long positions were liquidated by about $499,600
Short positions were liquidated by about $533,100
The liquidation amount in the past 24 hours was approximately $1.2485 million
Long positions were liquidated at about $542,900
Short positions were liquidated by about $705,600
From $XRP liquidation data, 1-hour and 4-hour long liquidations crushed the shorts, with long liquidations being 533 times and 346 times the shorts, respectively, showing a nuclear explosion-level intensity at the start of the long selling; The 12-hour direction suddenly reversed, with short liquidations crushing the bulls. Bears were 1.07 times longer than longs, triggering short squeezes; the 24-hour short advantage further expanded, rising to 1.3 times. Dog Zhuang completed a fierce turnaround from selling long to short squeezing on XRP—short-term long positions were targeted and destroyed, medium- to long-term short sellers were wiped out at once, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $1.24 million. Everyone should control their positions carefully to avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 3rd
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the reset of global asset pricing anchors and the sharp swings in market confidence—the bond market is punishing the Federal Reserve, the currency market is joining forces to resist trends, and the stock market is making an extreme rebound under policy stimulus.
📈 30-Year U.S. Treasuries: Top or New Beginning?
This may not be the end yet.
On July 29, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but the vote of 9 in favor and 3 against revealed internal divisions—three regional Fed chairs advocated for rate hikes, marking the first time since 2016. More crucially, Chairman Wash withdrew the forward-looking guidance, completely disrupting market expectations.
Three forces driving long-term bond yields soaring:
· Fed credibility damaged: Senior observers bluntly say "Walsh's message is not clear enough, bond market reacts ruthlessly"
· Side effects of joint US-Japan intervention: May require selling or collateralizing US Treasuries to obtain liquidity
· US-Iran conflict drives inflation expectations: oil prices remain high
The 30-year yield has surged to 5.27%, the highest since 2007. JPMorgan has raised its 30-year target to 5.4%; The options market is betting on a breakout above 5.4% before August 21. Brandywine bluntly stated, "Long-end investors do not believe his anti-inflation narrative." "
💴 US and Japan confirm joint foreign exchange purchase: first joint effort in 15 years
On August 3, the U.S. and Japanese Treasury Ministries simultaneously confirmed that they had jointly bought the yen on July 31. This is the first joint intervention since 2011, and the first yen purchase since the 1998 Asian financial crisis. Japan's Finance Minister clearly stated: "We will continue to intervene together without hesitation going forward." "
After the intervention, the yen rose to the 156-yen range per US dollar. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent said it "effectively curbed the disorderly fluctuations of the yen," while Trump said, "This is both a reflection of friendship and beneficial to the world economy." The last time such a partnership was during the Asian financial crisis—the forex market had already entered crisis response mode.
📉 KOSPI surged 14% intraday: an extreme rebound driven by policy
On July 31, KOSPI closed up 17.91%, marking the largest single-day gain in history. The South Korean government announced an injection of 20 trillion won (13.9 billion USD) into the sovereign wealth fund for AI investment; SK Group Chairman made a rare direct purchase of SK Hynix shares; Combined with joint intervention by the US and Japan, the Korean won has strengthened.
However, on August 3, KOSPI opened down 3.6%, with its intraday loss widening to 4.52%. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell 7.8% and 7.5%, respectively. With an 18% surge in one day and a drop of over 4% the next, the volatility of the Korean stock market has shifted from "extreme" to "disorderly."
💎 Summary
Three events outline the core picture of global markets in early August 2026: the bond market is punishing the Fed's hesitation, the currency market is joining forces to fight the trend, and the stock market is making an extreme rebound under policy stimulus before quickly pulling back. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose above 5.27%, the U.S. and Japan jointly intervened in the foreign exchange market, and KOSPI surged 18% in a single day—these are not the norm. When all three markets experience "abnormal" fluctuations simultaneously, the old order is collapsing, the new pricing system has yet to be established, and the chaos in between is the only certainty at present.
#30年期美债, the top or a new beginning?
#美日确认联合购汇
#财报观察员: Four draws this week, with Circle as the grand finale $WLD Current price of 0.3111 is the price after the main rally from 0.2264 →0.7234 has retreated to 83%—the pattern looks bad, but the bad part is the past, and the pricing no longer contains any expectations. The real change happened at the end of July: daily unlock volume dropped from 5.1 million to 2.9 million, the community share was cut in half, team and investor quotas dropped by 32%, and the daily selling pressure of 2.2 million coins was effectively removed from the hand that had been suppressing the price for the past six months; That same week, Grayscale submitted an S-1 for its spot WLD ETF, led by Pantera and with Bain Capital Crypto participating, a $52.5 million strategic token purchase lockup for one year—institutions built positions around 0.3, but they couldn't be sold out within a year. The spot side saw a contraction of 8.35M in transactions, indicating that this round of decline is no longer a panic market—no one is willing to sell at this price.
Looking ahead, the odds for bulls come from three factors overlapping at the same window: supply contraction has taken effect, ETF approvals are in substantive form, OpenAI is launching its IPO as early as September, and Altman is the co-founder of Worldcoin. In the year AI Agents flooded the market and "prove you are human" evolved from a concept to an infrastructure need, 18 million people completed iris verification and World App users surpassed 34 million, making it the only model in this track to successfully scale up. Technically, only one action is needed to confirm: break above 0.3462 (EMA20) on high volume and hold for three days; mid-term target at 0.3948; after the trend is established, target 0.5514.
If it falls below 0.2944, all of the above is void—the premise for positive news to be realized is that the price has proven it has stopped first. (This is for the sake of bullish perspective only, not investment advice.) ）$SKHYNIX $SNDK Today, SK Hynix opened lower and continued to decline, dropping to about 1.563 million won intraday before closing down about 7.7%. There was almost no rebound throughout the day, indicating heavy selling pressure.
There are three main reasons for the decline:
The global AI chip sector continues to see profit-taking, with funds withdrawing from high-valuation tech stocks.
South Korea's semiconductor sector fell across the board, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix weakening simultaneously, dragging down the KOSPI index.
The market is still digesting recent changes in expectations in the semiconductor industry, and investors' risk appetite has clearly declined.
This will affect Tonight's U.S. stock market SanDisk
The short-term trend is bearish, but not decisive.
The impact is mainly reflected in:
Bearish opening sentiment: After the Korean market closes, US investors usually focus on the performance of Asian semiconductor stocks. If SK Hynix drops sharply, it often puts pressure on storage stocks like SanDisk and Micron before the market opens.
The memory chip sector is easily interconnected. SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk all belong to the memory industry chain. Although their business structures differ, funds are usually traded by sector, making it easy for prices to rise and fall together.
Watch whether US stocks will open lower but move higher. If the Nasdaq stabilizes tonight and AI leaders like Nvidia and Micron stabilize after opening, SanDisk has a chance to rebound after a low open; Conversely, if the Nasdaq continues to fall, SanDisk may keep testing support below.
I'll open a short position to see how the situation develops; the key is how the US stock market moves tonight🚨 Ethereum is at a crossroads — and the next move could decide whether bulls wake up or bears take control.
This is the moment where patience matters more than prediction.
ETH is currently trapped between two important levels:
🟢 Support: $1,851
🔴 Resistance: $1,898
Here’s the game plan:
🐂 Bullish case:
If ETH breaks above $1,898 and holds, it could signal that buyers are finally stepping back in and open the path toward higher levels.
🐻 Bearish case:
If ETH loses $1,851, sellers may regain control and push price toward the next support zones.
Right now, the market is still in wait-and-see mode.
No need to force a trade.
No need to chase a breakout.
The best setups often come when you let the market reveal its direction first.
Watch the levels. Watch the liquidity. Let price confirm.
So where do you stand?
🐂 ETH bullish from here?
🐻 Or are you expecting another leg lower?
👇 Share your view.
#Ethereum #ETH #Crypto #Trading #DailyOrbit This week's outlook from the dead bulls:
1. The most important thing this week is Friday's CPI. If it falls short of expectations, at least the rate hike noise can quiet down for two weeks until the PCE data is released at the end of the month. I've never worried about the data; since Trump took office, there have been no surprises. If I remember correctly, the only bad data in this long period seems to be the only time it has been before. On this point, I still have a lot of 🤦 confidence in Trump
2. This week, there is SPCX's earnings report and lock-up release. The gold pit created by the unlock is very likely to serve as a buying opportunity.
3. I am very optimistic about the storage sector throughout August. After telling a whole month of ghost stories, capital expenditure didn't decrease but actually increased, with one long-term contract after another. As fundamentals improve, stock prices kept falling. This is the best investment opportunity.
4. The US-Iran war keeps happening over and over. I've long been tired of watching. If you're still worried about the US-Iran war, you can check out the Russia-Ukraine or Iraq wars—one isn't over yet, the other has been fighting for eight years. There's really no difference 🤦
Finally, don't sell your stocks; leave the rest to time
Buy the dip, hold for the long termThe core change in today's news comes from the US-Iran situation. Trump paused launching a new round of attacks on Iran, causing Brent crude to fall back to around $83.87, temporarily easing energy inflationary pressures. However, this felt more like a pause button on the battlefield rather than a complete exit of risk. Differences in navigation and control over the Strait of Hormuz have not been truly resolved, and US-Iran negotiations could reiterate at any time due to new attacks. Therefore, the drop in oil prices is a temporary positive for risk assets and is not yet enough to support a direct market turnaround.
On the macro front, the Federal Reserve's interest rate remains in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. On Tuesday, JOLTS job openings will be released, and on Friday, July nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rates will be released. Before employment data is released, the market will not easily trade for early rate cuts. The crypto market itself is also facing selling pressure, with 2,628 BTC transferred by Trump Media to exchanges and fund migrations triggered by the Coldcard security incident increasing short-term uncertainty in spot supply. Today's situation can be summed up in one sentence: the ebb of oil prices brought a breather, but employment data still hung overhead. The wind paused for a while, but the wave has not truly passed. U.S.-Iran situation and oil price changes U.S. labor data schedule.
The structure of long-short positions saw a counter-trend crowding again today. The latest data shows that long accounts have gradually risen from 65.9% earlier intraday to 66.6%, while short accounts have dropped to 33.4%, with the ratio of long to short accounts approaching 2 to 1. What's even more alarming is that during Bitcoin's price downward movement near 62,716, contract open interest did not decrease significantly; instead, it increased from about 109,100 BTC to 109,400 BTC, and the latest funding rate has once again approached a positive 0.01%. This indicates that the decline has not fully deleveraged the market, with more accounts choosing to continue bottom-fishing below 63,000. If the price climbs back above 64,000, these long positions could become a rebound booster; But if 62,000 falls, crowded long positions will shift from support to liquidation fuel, and the decline may accelerate significantly.The yen saw a rapid rise today. Many people's first reaction was: Japan has finally saved the yen. The market should focus more on another thing: who is selling? Who is closing the position? In recent years, the yen has had long-term low interest rates. Large amounts of money borrowed into yen and then bought in: US stocks, tech stocks, high-yield assets, and even the crypto market. This is the classic "yen arbitrage trade." Here's the question: if the yen only appreciates slowly, the impact will be limited. But if prices rise as rapidly as they are now, many arbitrage funds will face a problem: the borrowed money suddenly becomes more expensive. Thus, it may occur: selling risk assets ↓ buying back yen to repay debts ↓ further driving the yen higher, forming a cycle. So: this rise in the yen is ostensibly due to issues with the Bank of Japan. Behind this may be a global capital realignment. My judgment: 🇯🇵 Yen: Clear short-term bullish. 🇺🇸 US Dollar: Bearish. Gold: Mostly neutral. $BTC: Short-term neutral bearish. The reason is not Bitcoin's fundamentals deteriorating, but rather that if global arbitrage funds begin to reduce risk, highly volatile assets are usually the first to be affected. $ETH. $SOL: Higher risk. But there's no need to panic excessively. What really needs to be watched is: after the yen rises, there is sustained capital outflow from US stocks and BTC. If the market can digest the yen's appreciation, it means this is merely an exchange rate adjustment. If risk assets fall in tandem, it may mean: this is not a yen rally, but a global liquidity reset$ETH In the past two days, the market has been repeatedly tugging between 1800 and 1900, with bulls and bears evenly matched.
Currently, the 1910-1930 range forms a strong resistance zone. Although there was a rebound this morning, it failed to break through 1900.
The key support below is between 1800 and 1810; a break below could lead to a slide toward 1750.
Current long-short logic
Reasons for being bullish:
(1) US-Iran negotiations scheduled for August 3, Brent crude plunged over 7% to $81.55, suppressing geopolitical premiums;
(2) Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $365 million in July, more than double the Bitcoin ETF inflow, and the price stabilized and rebounded from around $1,865, with the lows gradually rising, and the short-term recovery structure still remains.
Reasons for being bearish:
(1) The probability of a Fed rate hike in September rose to 73.6%, and the FOMC showed its first "three consecutive hawkish" signals since 2016;
(2) Ethereum ETFs saw only $400,000 inflow last week, with momentum plummeting. Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of $600,000 last week, and if the market is under pressure, ETH will follow suit;
(3) Iran claims Trump's "withdrawal of strikes" is a "lie," Hormuz has not recovered, and if negotiations break down, oil prices could still soar.
For now, the short-term outlook depends on the outcome of this afternoon's negotiations. Wei Ge judges that the probability of easing this round of negotiations is low; if it falls short of expectations, the market is very likely to fall again. #美日确认联合购汇 Crypto Daily · Monday, August 3, 2026
1. Today's summary in one sentence
Mainstream coins dipped slightly, with bulls net losing over 90 million. Monday's opening had no surprises, just slow grinding.
2. Market thermometer
Neutral and hollow
BTC and ETH have fallen for seven consecutive days, with long positions losing far more than short positions, and there is no sign of sentiment recovering.
3. Today's core market highlights
BTC：$63,070 | 24h -0.63% | Holding 63,000 without breaking below but with insufficient volume, holding on without rising is just wasting the bulls
ETH：$1,861 | 24h -0.83% | It fell 3% over seven days, weaker than BTC, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate is still declining, which looks bad
Today's strongest sector: BNB Ecosystem | BNB | +0.46% (The strongest gain in the entire session was this one, which shows there really wasn't much enthusiasm for going long today)
Today's weakest sector: Small-cap Meme/altcoins | ACX、HFT、VIC | -17% or more (those with poor liquidity died first, a batch was cut today)
4. The most important news of the day
[News 1]
[Title] Trump Announces US-Iran Talks to Start Tomorrow, Preliminary Agreement Already Reached in the Strait of Hormuz
[Impact] In the short term, marginal reduction in geopolitical risks, release of oil price pressure, and slight room for a slight boost in risk asset sentiment; But "negotiation" does not mean "implementation," and the market will not set prices sharply in advance
[My Judgment] The market is currently not reacting enough. If this news is realized, it would be a temporary positive for both crypto and US stocks—once Hormuz stabilizes, energy inflation expectations will decline, and the Fed will have room to cut rates. But now BTC is only rebounding slightly around 63,000, indicating the market hasn't taken this seriously. I tend to think this is an undervalued signal and worth watching tomorrow's negotiation progress.
[News 2]
[Title] China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for July Fell to 50.9, Lower Than the Previous Value of 51.7
[Impact] The pace of expansion in China's manufacturing sector is slowing, global risk appetite is under short-term pressure, which is marginally negative for the crypto market
[My judgment] The reaction was basically reasonable, not excessive. This data isn't a crash—it's still above the boom-bust line, but the trend is downward. Combined with last week's weakness in US stocks and crypto, this data only adds another blow to already bearish sentiment and is not the main driver.
[News 3]
[Title] Binance launches GIGADEV perpetual contracts, with Gate Alpha launching the first batch of new tokens such as OFFICIAL and JORDAN
[Impact] There is speculative sentiment in the short term for related small-cap coins, but the overall market environment remains weak, so the sustainability of these stocks is questionable
[My Judgment] The market reaction may be overly reactive—when mainstream coins are falling, funds chasing these small coins are most likely betting on a short-term surge. Those entering should carefully consider whether they are the last to hit the market.
5. Signals to Watch Today
Signal One:
Signal: BTC long positions have net losses exceeding $81 million, short positions have net profits of $42 million, and the PnL market is sharply diverged
Why it's worth noting: If the bulls are losing money and haven't escaped, it means they're either holding on hard or being stuck—under this structure, if the price moves further down, it could trigger a chain of stop-losses
Tracking cycle: Short-term
Signal Two:
Signal: ETH's seven-day decline (-3.02%) is significantly greater than BTC's (-1.31%), with the ETH/BTC exchange rate continuing to weaken
Why it's worth watching: ETH's continued weakness relative to BTC often means overall market risk appetite is shrinking, making it harder for coins to have independent ralliers
Tracking cycle: Mid-term
Signal Three:
Signal: US-Iran negotiations officially start tomorrow, Trump mentions "agreement already in the Strait of Hormuz"
Why it's worth watching: Geopolitical risk is one of the key factors suppressing risk assets this year, and if there is substantial progress in negotiations, it could trigger the next wave of rebound
Tracking cycle: Short-term
6. Preview of tomorrow's key events
🕐 [Tomorrow afternoon, Tuesday morning Beijing time] US-Iran Official Negotiations Begin → Expected Impact: Bullish; if expectations of geopolitical easing materialize, risk assets will benefit in the short term, but it depends on the specifics—don't chase too early
🕐 [August 4, 16:00-16:30 UTC] Gate spot trading engine upgrade and maintenance → Expected impact: Neutral, short-term outage, limited impact
🕐 This week's focus: Federal Reserve officials' speaking window period → Expected impact: Neutral bias with bullish/bearish uncertainty; if officials signal rate cuts, crypto will react; Otherwise, keep grinding
7. Today's Perspective
To be honest, I don't have much in particular about making this dish today. BTC held at 63,000, but the bulls lost over 80 million. This money didn't disappear into thin air—someone was carrying it. If you can endure, it's support; if not, it's trampling. Tomorrow's US-Iran negotiations are the only thing I think is worth watching today. Cognition never earns money beyond cognition—if no one pays attention to this news, then maybe that's where the opportunity lies.#30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？
2026年8月3日｜30年期美债收益率创19年高位，全球资产迎来压力测试
近期，30年期美债收益率持续走高，刷新近19年来高位，成为全球金融市场关注焦点。长端美债收益率上涨，反映市场对于美国通胀、财政赤字以及长期利率水平的担忧。数据显示，30年期美债收益率近期一度突破5.2%附近，市场正在重新定价“高利率持续时间”。(The Wall Street Journal)
从交易角度来看，美债收益率上涨最大的影响是流动性收紧。作为全球无风险资产定价锚，美债收益率走高会提高资金成本，压制高估值科技股以及风险资产表现。同时，美元流动性变化也会传导至加密市场，BTC、ETH等资产短期可能面临资金避险压力。
但换一个角度看，市场剧烈波动往往也是机会窗口。高收益率意味着债券市场正在重新寻找平衡，如果未来经济数据走弱，市场重新交易降息预期，风险资产可能迎来反弹。
对于交易者而言，当前重点关注美债收益率、美元指数以及美联储政策信号。不要被短期情绪左右，真正的趋势机会往往出现在市场分歧最大的时候。
核心观点：30年美债收益率上涨是风险信号，也是市场重新定价的过程。短线控制仓位，中长期关注流动性转向带来的机会。 🚀 Why Is $BTC Futures Yield Trading Below 2-Year Treasuries?
The chart from #Glassnode highlights an unusual market condition: Bitcoin's 3-month futures basis has remained below the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield since February, marking the second-longest period on record (currently ~157 days). This suggests that traders are demanding less premium to hold $BTC futures than the return offered by "risk-free" government bonds.
What does this mean?
Normally, $BTC futures trade at a premium because investors expect higher future prices. A higher futures basis reflects bullish sentiment and strong demand for leveraged long positions.
Today, however, the opposite is happening. The futures basis remains below Treasury yields, indicating that:
🔸Leverage demand is relatively weak.
🔸Institutional traders are being more selective with risk.
🔸Capital is flowing toward safer assets offering attractive fixed returns.
In short, the derivatives market is still cautious despite Bitcoin holding at elevated price levels.
Why is this important?
The last comparable period occurred during the 2022 bear market, when futures yields stayed below Treasury yields for around 160 days. That period ultimately coincided with Bitcoin forming its cycle bottom before entering a new bull market.
This doesn't mean history will repeat exactly, but it does show that low futures premiums often appear when market sentiment is overly conservative, even while long-term accumulation continues.
📌 Current Market Takeaway
Unlike 2022, Bitcoin is not trading near cycle lows. Price remains relatively strong while futures premiums stay compressed. This divergence suggests the market has not entered an overheated phase.
Without excessive leverage, the risk of large long-liquidation cascades is lower, creating a healthier foundation if spot demand continues to strengthen.
Sometimes the strongest bull markets begin when almost nobody is willing to pay a premium.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Glassnode #OnChain #Crypto #Futures #Macro #Treasury #MarketStructure #TechnicalAnalysis#美日确认联合购汇
August 3, 2026 | The US and Japan jointly intervene in the yen, bringing new variables to the global market
Recently, the "US and Japanese intervention in the yen exchange rate" has become a market focus. This is not only a battle to defend the exchange rate but also a realignment of global capital flows. The continued depreciation of the yen has led to higher import costs and increased inflationary pressures in Japan, prompting the Japanese government to step in to stabilize the exchange rate, while U.S. involvement in coordination also signals its commitment to maintaining financial market stability. After this action, the yen strengthened rapidly, the US dollar fell significantly against the yen, and market risk aversion intensified. (Reuters)
From a trading perspective, the biggest impact of yen intervention lies in "carry trades." In the past, investors borrowed heavily from low-yield yen to invest in US stocks, high-yield assets, and risk markets. If the yen appreciates rapidly, arbitrage funds may be forced to close positions, triggering a global liquidity contraction. (Business Insider)
For the crypto market, this event may bring short-term volatility pressure. If US dollar liquidity tightens, some funds may reduce risk exposure, making assets like BTC and ETH prone to volatile corrections. However, in the medium to long term, if the market returns to accommodative expectations, capital may still seek high-growth assets.
Traders need to pay attention to changes in the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, and the yen's movement. The market has entered a phase of policy maneuvering; don't simply chase rises and sell losses, but wait for clear capital direction.
Key viewpoint: Yen intervention affects sentiment in the short term, while the medium-term market direction is still determined by dollar liquidity and global economic expectations. Control your position and wait for the next opportunity.The crypto market remains untouched: security hazes overshadow macro positives, #比特币 falls below $63,000
On Monday (August 3), global financial markets welcomed multiple macro positives, but the crypto asset market failed to rebound. Instead, it continued to weaken under the impact of internal industry security incidents, showing a rare trend of decoupling from the macro environment.
Mainstream coins collectively retreated
Major crypto assets generally closed lower on Monday. Bitcoin retreated from Sunday's high of $63,600, dropping about 1% intraday to $62,800, with a cumulative decline of about 4% over the past week. Ethereum fell more than 1% to $1,858, failing to break above the $1,900 mark since last week, with a 7-day drop of about 5%. XRP fell nearly 1% to $1.07, SOL dropped about 0.5% to around $73, and DOGE edged down. BNB is one of the few tokens that has held steady against the trend, remaining basically flat intraday and still up 1.6% over the past week. Hyperliquid's HYPE fell to $52.52, a 7-day drop of 12.8%, making it the weakest among the top ten tokens.
The Coldcard attack continues to ferment
The core reason for the market pressure is the ongoing cleanup of addresses related to Coldcard's hardware wallets. According to CoinDesk, a third wave of attacks occurred over the weekend, with the total observed losses expanding to 1,367 bitcoins (about $89 million), involving approximately 4,585 addresses. In terms of attack rhythm, the first round transferred 1,083 BTC from 1,196 addresses; The third round covered 1,912 wallets but only transferred 208 BTC, showing a "big first, then small" pattern, indicating that after handling large wallets, attackers shifted to smaller addresses. This systematic and ongoing attack directly shakes users' trust in hardware wallets as the "last line of defense."
Macro positive factors have not been transmitted
In contrast to the crypto market, macro assets showed a warm performance on Monday. After the US-Iran restarted negotiations, Brent crude oil plunged 7.3% to $81.55 per barrel in October; The yield on the US 10-year Treasury fell 4 basis points to 4.69%; Nasdaq-100 futures and European stock index futures both rose about 0.8%. Normally, falling oil prices, declining yields, and stronger stock indices would support crypto assets, but this time Bitcoin did not react positively, indicating the market is more concerned about the spread of security risks within the industry.
Capital flows also confirm this divergence: last Friday, Ethereum funds saw a small net inflow, while Bitcoin funds recorded net outflows. This rare situation indicates that short-term security events have overshadowed macro positive factors and become the dominant variable in the market.
Outlook
In the short term, subsequent developments in the Coldcard incident remain a key variable. If panic continues to escalate, market pressure may persist. But in the medium term, improvements in the macro environment (falling oil prices and falling yields) provide potential support for risk assets. Once internal security concerns within the industry ease, the crypto market is expected to realign with macro logic. For investors, the current juncture requires balancing short-term uncertainty with medium-term turnaround, with risk control remaining the top priority.基本面研报 $ZEC / Zcash（隐私币） $3.20
先说结论：Zcash（$ZEC）综合评分 47/100，评级 早期项目，验证不足。 三层拆开看，公司团队 有现金储备， 协议网络 已有付费使用痕迹， 代币 捕获已落地。
Zcash（代币 $ZEC），隐私币 赛道。 主打 zk隐私币。 对标 XMR、DASH。 传统中心化平台抽佣 15-40%，用户数据不自主。 链上去信任交易费用更低，代币激励把早期用户转化为贡献者。 客单价 50-500 美元/月，需 USDC 或法币结算。叙事驱动型赛道，熊市使用量砍 60-80%。定位端到端垂直平台。 产品落地：协议层已正式运行，链上仪表盘显示协议手续费正在累积，已有付费使用痕迹。 最新版本 未查到，近 90 天有效提交 60 次。
用户层面，地址 MAU 未披露，DAU 未披露，24h 成交额 $80.00M，TVL 未查到。 钱包地址不等于自然人月活，大额地址集中持仓会高估真实用户量。 收入端，用户费用 未披露， 供应方收入大约是用户费用的 80-90%（归 LP 和节点）， 协议金库收入 $2.00M， 代币持有人回购销毁年化 无销毁机制。 24h 成交额是业务流水不是收入。 公司赚钱不等于协议赚钱，协议赚钱不等于代币持有人赚钱。 代码侧，90 天有效提交 60 次，活跃贡献者 25 人， 最新版本 未查到。GitHub 是 A 级证据可以直接核验。 投资背景，公司股权融资看 PitchBook/Crunchbase（A 级）， 代币私募公募看白皮书和释放曲线以及链上解锁合约（A 级）， 做市商和生态资助是 B 级不代表技术 VC 长期持仓， 技术集成看 API/SDK 接入证据（B 级）， 战略合作和 Logo 墙是 D 级。 NVIDIA GPU 被使用不等于 NVIDIA 投资，交易所上线不等于交易所战略投资。
代币侧，总量 1,300,000,000，流通 950,000,000（73.1%）， FDV $4.20B，下次解锁 2026-Q4（占流通 +3.50%）， 销毁回购年化 无明确回购销毁。用产品必须买币？部分需要，中等价值捕获（质押/折扣/治理）。 和同行放一起看（统一口径，不跨赛道乱比）： 流通市值方面，Zcash $3.00B，XMR 未披露，DASH 未披露。 FDV 方面，Zcash $4.20B，XMR 未披露，DASH 未披露。 年化收入方面，Zcash $2.00M，XMR 未披露，DASH 未披露。 月活地址或用户方面，Zcash 未披露，XMR 未披露，DASH 未披露。 数字以公开数据快照为准，部分缺失由官方自报或行业口径补。 估值，流通市值 $3.00B，FDV $4.20B， P/S 1500.0x，FDV 除以收入 2100.0x。 悲观看 $3.00B 打 5-7 折，中性区间震荡， 乐观看收入翻倍、销毁落地、企业客户进来，FDV 对应 P/S 与头部对齐。 收个尾：证据不足，叙事为主（评分 47/100）。代币价值捕获已落地（回购/销毁/Gas）。 流通市值相对基本面偏贵，透支预期，FDV 温和。 三大风险：短期大额解锁砸盘、协议收入长期归零、代币需求仅靠激励（激励断即使用量崩）。 持续关注：协议手续费周度、销毁金额、活跃地址留存、TVL/贷款余额、GitHub 版本发布。 以上判断基于公开数据，不构成任何投资建议。关键指标大幅偏离时结论需修正。
先聊到这，有想法评论区见。
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbit#30年期美债, the top or a new beginning?
Recently, there has been major news in the financial circle: the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond has surpassed 5%. This is not a small number; it is the highest level since 2007. Many people are asking, what exactly does this mean? Is it the peak, or the starting point of a new storm?
You can think of it as the "interest" the U.S. government pays for long-term loans. You lend money to the U.S. government for 30 years, and it pays you 5% interest every year. This "risk-free rate" serves as the "anchor" for global asset pricing. When this anchor rises, it means the risks of all other assets in the market must be recalculated.
1. Inflation is too stubborn: U.S. inflation data has not come down, energy prices remain high, and core inflation is also rising. People worry that money is becoming less valuable, so they demand higher interest rates when lending to the government.
2. The government is too short on cash: The total U.S. national debt has approached $39 trillion, making interest payments a huge fiscal burden. To borrow new loans to repay old debts, the government has to continuously raise interest rates to attract buyers.
3. Fed's tough stance: The market had originally expected Fed rate cuts, but the Fed made it clear it would not ease restrictions until inflation is resolved. This has completely abandoned the market's fantasy of "a rate cut soon."
This is definitely bad news for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
1. Capital is being drained: When buying US Treasuries, a "risk-free" asset, can yield a guaranteed 5% profit, who would still take huge risks to trade cryptocurrencies? A large amount of capital will flow out of the high-risk crypto market and move toward the safer bond market.
2. Valuation suppression: Like tech stocks, cryptocurrencies are considered "long-duration assets." Their value largely depends on future expectations. When the risk-free rate rises, the discounted value of future cash flows decreases, causing prices to fall.
3. Increased volatility: A high interest rate environment tightens liquidity in the market. Once there is any disturbance, the highly leveraged crypto market is prone to chain liquidations, leading to sharp price fluctuations.
The 30-year Treasury yield breaking below 5% feels more like a new starting point rather than a top. It marks the complete end of the era of cheap global capital, and we have officially entered a new normal of high interest rates and high volatility.
For crypto players, this means:
* Don't be too optimistic: expecting the Fed to loosen liquidity quickly is unrealistic.
* Control positions: In a high interest rate environment, cash is king. Reduce leverage and avoid going fully invested.
* Focus on macroeconomics: In the future, when looking at the crypto world, don't just look at on-chain data; pay close attention to US Treasury yields and the Fed's moves.
In short: when "risk-free" assets can easily earn 5%, the high-risk asset frenzy should calm down. Now is not the time to chase the rally, but to break down the chip structure. Do you really know how many new coins you buy are waiting to be dropped every day overhead? Lately, I've been a bit absent-minded when watching the market. Too many people stare at the candlestick asking "Why isn't it going up?" but very few open the unlock calendar to see exactly how many tokens are moving from locked to tradable. Prices are just ripples on the surface; the supply structure is the underlying tide. I reviewed those projects with high FDV and low circulation during this cycle, from ARB to OP, from STRK to ZK, from TIA to SUI, and also BLAST, MANTA, ALT, DYM, SEI, PYTH, JUP, W, EIGEN, REZ, ETHFI. It's not that they lack technology or community—many project narratives are beautifully presented. But if you look at their circulation and their unlock plans over the next six months, you'll find a harsh reality: those so-called "early supporters" and "team incentives" are essentially a timetable full of who can comfortably exit at which price. - The token price of $0.1 seems cheap, but if 80% of the total supply remains unreleased, then this "cheapness" is just a temporary illusion. - Unlocking is not a one-time event; it is a constant source of pressure. Each release dilutes the share of existing holders and tests the market on whether to take over. - Charts tell you what the market has taken, while unlocking the calendar tells you what the market will do nextThe earnings report is only a short-term catalyst; the real big test for SPCX is the unlocking of shares worth hundreds of billions
After the market closes on August 4, SPCX will submit its first earnings report since listing. For a new stock's first earnings report, the market usually focuses on revenue scale, profit or loss performance, and business guidance for the upcoming quarters, but this case is particularly special. The next trading day after the earnings disclosure, August 6, will see a massive unlocking window for restricted shares, with the largest unlocking scale reaching 911.5 million shares. Based on the closing price of $108.37 on July 31, the corresponding market value approaches $100 billion.
Core market focus
Institutional data consensus expects Q2 revenue of $6.88 billion and a loss per share of $0.23. Compared to Q1 revenue of $4.69 billion, the market generally anticipates a significant quarter-over-quarter revenue increase, with core expectations coming from further expansion of the Starlink business.
However, whether revenue meets expectations is only a surface-level point. The real market concerns during the earnings call are: whether Starlink's user base and revenue can continue to grow rapidly; and whether the revenue generated by Starlink can cover the cash burn from Starship, xAI, and data center segments. Reviewing Q1, revenue was $4.69 billion, but the net loss reached $4.28 billion, with operating income almost entirely consumed; free cash flow trends are also a key focus. Simply put, the market does not expect profitability at this stage; the main observation is whether the overall cash burn rate shows signs of slowing.
Current market situation: not a concentrated sell-off, but a persistent lack of buying
Looking back over the past ten trading days, SPCX only closed higher on 3 days, with the remaining 7 days all down. The cumulative volume on down days was 440 million shares, while up days totaled 237 million shares, with down-day volume 1.86 times that of up days. During this period, the stock price slid from $123.99 to $108.37, a total pullback of 12.6%. On July 31, the stock fell 3.41% with 58.83 million shares traded; after-hours trading continued down to $107.77, and this volume was far below the 65-day average of 115.3 million shares.
This is not a volume-driven panic sell-off. Large volume drops usually indicate panic-driven concentrated selling, which can often signal a near bottom in the short term. Currently, the stock is in a low-volume, slow decline pattern; sellers are not dumping large quantities at once, but off-exchange buyers are steadily retreating, with price slightly falling alongside shrinking volume, making it difficult to capture clear bottom signals.
Short positions continue to increase, bearish bets intensify
As of July 15, short positions reached 165 million shares, a sharp 48% increase month-over-month, accounting for 25.55% of the float. Third-party statistics show about 360 million shares are on loan for short selling, representing 56% of the float, with short positions accumulating about $15.5 billion in unrealized gains.
The stock price has nearly halved from $225 to around $110, yet short sellers have not closed positions to take profits but continue to add. This indicates that shorts are not only betting on valuation correction but also on a second round of price decline risk due to the unlocking impact.
The current float is only 646 million shares, while the number of shares to be unlocked is 1.41 times that, exceeding the tradable supply by 40%; this scale is 15.5 times the total volume on July 31 and 7.9 times the 65-day average daily volume.
Unlocking does not mean all shareholders will sell to cash out. But even if only 10% choose to liquidate, that corresponds to 91.15 million shares, 55% higher than the total volume on July 31, with a market value close to $9.88 billion; even if only 5% sell, that's 45 million shares, roughly half the daily volume. In the current weak, low-volume buying environment, even a small increase in selling pressure can disrupt the market.
There is also a price-triggered unlocking rule: in the 10 trading days before the earnings report, at least 5 days must close above $175.50 to unlock an additional 455.8 million shares. At the current $108 price, this condition is impossible to meet. The actual pressure on August 6 will be the unlocking of 911.5 million shares, which is one of the few positives.
Is there still a chance for bulls to turn the tide? The opportunity comes from short covering
25% of the float is already held by shorts. If the earnings data significantly exceed market expectations, it could trigger concentrated short covering. Covering shorts creates passive buying, which can easily spark a strong rebound in a stock with limited float.
Three possible scenarios for the future
1. Earnings significantly beat expectations + mild selling during unlocking phase, stock price may surge quickly;
2. Basic data is acceptable, but management guidance is vague, leading to a rally followed by a pullback as the market continues to digest selling pressure from unlocking;
3. Earnings miss expectations combined with concentrated insider selling, stock price may hit a new low since listing.
Personally, I believe the second scenario is most likely. Starlink's fundamentals probably won't deteriorate significantly, but the overall cash burn rate is unlikely to improve substantially in the short term, and management will continue to emphasize long-term business investment logic. After the earnings hype fades, the market's focus will return to the unlocking of shares worth hundreds of billions.
SPCX has fallen from $225 to $108, nearly halving, but the risk at the chip level has not been fully released. Over the past month, the stock price has been supported by limited float, with a distorted supply-demand relationship. After August 6, the chip restrictions will be broken, and what will determine the stock price is no longer grand long-term stories but two very practical key points: at what price existing insiders are willing to sell, and how much external capital is willing to absorb the selling pressure.
Earnings determine whether the market is willing to buy in; unlocking determines how much selling volume the market needs to absorb. Last week, the S&P 500 rose about 1% for the week. Looking at the index alone, this seems to be another fairly ordinary upward week. There was no systemic crash, nor any particularly dramatic index fluctuations; many might even think the market was just fluctuating back and forth around earnings reports and the Federal Reserve. But after reviewing the data from Goldman Sachs' Delta One trading desk, I feel this week has been far less calm than the index suggests. The market itself has actually gone through a whole intense process: crowded trading collapse, hedge funds deleveraging, forced liquidations, short covering, and funds chasing back into the market. In the first half of the week, they were all running for their lives, but in the second half, they suddenly started scrambling for shares. The index only ended up up 1%, but many funds' holdings have already been reshuffled. For someone like me who already holds positions in technology and semiconductors, this set of data is actually quite important. Because it tells us it's not just whether the market has risen or fallen, but where the money from this rebound actually came from, and whether the market risks have truly been eliminated. The first to collapse was the most crowded momentum trading in the past. The first chart shows the drawdown of the high beta momentum factor. So-called high beta momentum, simply put, means buying stocks that have recently risen best and showing the greatest elasticity, while shorting stocks that have performed worse recently. In recent years, long positions in this strategy have easily concentrated on AI, semiconductors, cloud computing, and various popular market stocks. When the market is good, this strategy makes money quickly because the strong get stronger, and funds keep chasing the best-performing assets from the pastThere are many voices in the market predicting that a U.S. debt crisis may erupt in the future, with destructive power even surpassing that of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. The macro surface is complex, but the underlying logic is not difficult to sort out. The essence of a debt crisis is the inability to repay debt. The 2007 subprime crisis was caused by a large number of borrowers unable to repay their loans, triggering a chain reaction of debt and ultimately triggering widespread institutional bankruptcies. However, U.S. debt is a sovereign government debt and will not directly default on law. The U.S. government has only three ways to repay debt: using fiscal surpluses to earn money to repay debt, issuing new debt to borrow new funds to pay off old debt, and the Federal Reserve printing money to pay the bill. The first two are the first two approaches. The U.S. debt crisis everyone is discussing is not that the U.S. refuses to pay principal and interest, but rather that the market is unwilling to continue buying U.S. Treasuries. With insufficient buying, U.S. Treasury prices fall and yields rise, and high interest rates siphon the stock market. If the external market completely refuses to take over, in order to maintain the debt cycle, it will force the Fed to print money to buy bonds, essentially monetizing debt and effectively defaulting. The rampant supply of the US dollar has led to depreciation and inflation, forcing interest rate hikes to curb inflation, putting pressure on the stock market. Here lies a practical dilemma: if global institutions stop increasing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, where will the massive dollar reserves be directed? Gold and Bitcoin can be diversified in small proportions, but their total market capitalization is limited and cannot handle the massive central bank-level US dollar. Other overseas bonds, equity, and physical assets, which are constrained by exchange rates, liquidity, and policy conditions, are difficult to fully replace U.S. Treasuries. Therefore, a devastating collapse of U.S. Treasury bonds is a low-probability black swan. What is more likely to happen is repeated and intense volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, yields#Coldcard安全事件升级, fourth wave attack warning
Industry institutions estimate that about 7 million $BTC will become targets of future quantum attacks due to public key exposure on-chain, with a total value of approximately $470 billion. However, there is no need to worry in the past; exposing public keys does not necessarily mean assets will be stolen, because a quantum computer capable of cracking Bitcoin's private key has yet to appear.
However, it is important to be cautious that technological advances are continuously shortening this window of safety. Google Research has issued a statement stating that the number of qubits needed to crack related cryptographic systems has dropped significantly; Ethereum researchers estimate that by 2032, the probability of quantum computers successfully cracking exposed public keys could reach about 10%. Currently, the lab can only crack extremely short test keys, which are still far from the 256-bit real key.
The Bitcoin community is also continuously discussing and researching related upgrade plans:
BIP-360 plans to introduce quantum-resistant addresses, encouraging users to proactively migrate assets.
BIP-361 is even more aggressive, advocating for phased phased phases out of legacy signatures and ultimately freezing wallets that have not migrated for a long time. Supporters of this plan argue that freezing dormant assets is better than having quantum hackers steal them and throw them into the market; Opponents, on the other hand, worry that this would be equivalent to making decisions for asset holders and could even cross Bitcoin's decentralization red line.
Of course, a group of startups have also started to seize the quantum-resistant track. American Fortress claims to add quantum protection to multiple blockchains without changing existing addresses and automatically freezes high-risk wallets before an attack occurs. However, its core papers have not yet been made public and the technology lacks independent audits, so it currently appears to be more hype and hype.
Quantum threats are a real test the Bitcoin network must face—not just upgrading cryptographic algorithms, but also finding consensus on security, property rights, privacy, and compliance.
It is believed that the Bitcoin community can handle this "quantum threat" crisis perfectly.#韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, marking the largest single-day gain in history
A country's benchmark index has managed to break out of the meme coin candlestick chart.
When the entry appeared, KOSPI's intraday gain was about 14%, then briefly expanded to 16.5%, with the index rising to 6515.40 points. Even more impressive, Samsung Electronics rose 24.8%, SK Hynix rose 27.8%, and this rebound was almost entirely dominated by heavyweights in AI and semiconductors.
But don't rush to call for the return of the bull market.
Previously, KOSPI had fallen more than 17% over three consecutive trading days. Assuming the index drops from 100 to 83 and rises another 16.5%, it will only end up at 96.7, still about 3.3% below the starting point. So this historic bullish candlestick looks more like panic selling, short covering, and bottom-fishing all colliding together, but it doesn't mean the trend has completely reversed. Previously, KOSPI closed down 10.84% in a single day, with an intraday drop of 11.3%, triggering circuit breakers.
This is not news for the crypto market either.
The average daily turnover of South Korea's five major crypto exchanges once reached about 2.7 trillion KRW, only about 2% of KOSPI's turnover. When the stock market experiences such volatility, short-term capital and retail investors' attention is easily drawn away by Samsung and SK Hynix.
Next, I will focus on the $BTC, $ETH, and $XRP KRW trading pairs on Upbit and Bithumb: if KOSPI continues to strengthen with increased volume, the crypto market may temporarily lose liquidity; If the index surges and then retreats, the funds chasing volatility may return to the crypto world.
Ultimately, a 14% increase is quite impressive, but what really matters is not how much it has risen, but whether trading volume can sustain and whether chip stocks can hold steady after this big bullish candlestick. The sudden "crypto-ification" of the Korean stock market may not be positive news for traders, but more like a risk warning.
This is for personal market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.Korean stocks experienced an extreme performance today: KOSPI surged as much as 14% intraday, marking its largest single-day gain in history.
However, the crypto community did not cheer in unison.
As of 14:37, $BTC was about $62,667, down 0.71%; $ETH Around $1,852, down 0.34%. On one side, historically significant index rallies occur; on the other, mainstream coins remain underwater. This temperature difference is more worth watching than simple price fluctuations.
The sharp rebound in KOSPI may be amplified by local capital, chip heavyweight stocks, and short covering. If funds only cover the previous sharp drop, the impact will remain in the Korean market; Only when sentiment continues to spread to US stocks, the US dollar, and crypto markets can a broader recovery in risk appetite be formed.
Next, two price points can be used to test this hype: whether BTC can climb back above $63,000, and whether ETH can shift from "relative resistance" to active gains.
The longer the combination of strong Korean stocks and weak crypto continues, the more obvious the local nature of this rally becomes.
#韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, marking the largest single-day gain in historyMultiple pressures are coming! Let's review several major negative risks currently facing ETH
Recently, the market has been volatile and fluctuating. Compared to BTC's resilience, $ETH trend remains weak, which is no coincidence; multiple bearish factors are resonating and suppressing the market.
1. Macro Perspective: High US Treasury yields continue to squeeze appeal
The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury notes has hit a 19-year high, with risk-free yields continuing to rise.
The annualized yield on ETH staking has remained around 2.5% for a long time, significantly lagging behind long-term US Treasury yields.
For institutional funds, holding U.S. Treasuries is more certain, with no contract security risks. In contrast, the cost-effectiveness of ETH staking continues to decline, further weakening allocation willingness.
2. Funding Flow: Ethereum ETF funds continue to face pressure
The US Ethereum spot ETF has maintained a long-term net outflow state, with institutional funds continuously reducing positions to hedge risks.
BTC relies on digital gold narratives to provide safe-haven and bottom-line attributes; However, ETH is more often classified as a growth risk asset by the market. During the period of risk appetite decline, funds are selling ETH first, creating a divergence between strong and weak assets.
3. Derivatives signals: Bullish confidence weakens
Data shows that the number of USDT-margined ETH long positions has significantly declined, with a large number of leveraged long positions actively reducing their leverage.
The market repeatedly challenged the $2000 mark and pulled back under pressure. Each rebound saw volume shrink step by step, with stable selling pressure above and buying support far weaker than BTC.
4. Internal pain points in the sector
1. On-chain activity remains low, gas fees remain low for a long time, and the network's revenue-generating capacity is insufficient;
2. Intensified competition in the L2 ecosystem, with a large number of applications diverting and market disagreements over ETH's "value capture capability" growing in the market;
3. A large number of validators remain on the sidelines, and staking exits pose potential selling pressure. Once panic spreads, unlocking tokens will create short-term selling pressure.
Objective dialectics: Negative news ≠ immediately triggers a sharp decline
There are several risk boundaries that everyone needs to clarify:
✅ Negative news means strong upward resistance, but does not necessarily mean the market will continue to plunge;
✅ If BTC holds the key support, ETH is very likely to follow the volatility and will find it difficult to break out of a standalone one-sided decline;
❌ Risk Points: If the market experiences a rapid pullback, ETH will be more volatile and generally has greater downside resilience than BTC.
Practical reference
Short-term: $2000 has become a strong short-term resistance; multiple attempts fail, so do not blindly chase long positions.
Below the core support, focus on the 1870–1900 range.
Strategy: Reduce heavy positions and gambling; do not use ETH as an offensive target in a volatile market; Waiting for two major signs of improvement: ETF capital inflows back and US Treasury yields turning around.
The biggest feature of the market at this stage is sector differentiation, with the strong and weak dynamics continuing to widen. Both are mainstream coins, and capital choices are clearly biased; going with the flow is far more likely to survive than just holding on.
Interactive question: Do you think ETH can be the first to hold above the 2000 level and recover the market?
A. The pressure remains weak and difficult to break through
B. Follow the market fluctuations and wait for liquidity to recover
C. Negative news has been fully digested, leading to a recovery and rebound
$ETH $BTC
#以太坊 #链上资金 #宏观流动性
📌 Liquidity Selection | Today's Continuous Monitoring List:
$BTC · $ETH · $SOL · $BEAT · $EDGE · $COAI · $TRUMP · $VIRTUAL · $SPACE · $SOPH · $IP · $AVNT · $ZAMA · $OFC · $PIEVERSE ·
$ACU · $H · $MEGA · $JELLYJELLY · $OPG · $SLX · $LAB · $BSB · $ALLO · $CHIP · $MEME · $EDEN · $HUMA · $ZKP · $CORE · $TAO · $WLD · $DOGE · $RENDER · $TIA · $HYPE · $METIS · $AVAX · $SUI · $ZEC
⚠️ This content is for market information exchange only and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile, so positions and leverage are strictly controlled!#30年期美债, the top or a new beginning?
5.3% is the top for 30-year Treasuries; I don't believe it can hold firm
To get straight to the point: I believe the 30-year Treasury yield has already peaked near 5.3%, and is very likely to fall later.
First, oil prices, the pillar of inflation, have already started to loosen. The US-Iran easing is not a minor move. Oil prices fell 7% in a single day. If there is no rebound in the future, inflation expectations will be significantly pulled down, and long-term bond yields will lack momentum to continue rising. JPMorgan is too optimistic about 5.4%, but the market isn't that strong.
Second, the rate hike pricing is already fully set. The market now expects a rate hike in December, but if oil prices continue to weaken, the Fed has no reason to be so hawkish. When expectations pull back, the 30-year year will actually turn downward, and those chasing the current highs may be trapped at the top.
Third, I have already started adjusting my portfolio. This week, taking advantage of the 30-year bond surging to around 5.3%, I swapped part of my previous $ETH holdings for $BTC, reducing my overall position from 70% to about 50%, and pocketed some first. It's not that I'm bearish on the crypto world, but rather that the US Treasury position is unsustainable and that I'll slowly add back when yields come down.
The probability of a top is higher than the probability of a breakout. I'll avoid it for now and won't bet on the market's direction. Feel free to share your opinions.Fundamental Research Report $CRO / Cronos (Exchange Token) $3.20
First, the conclusion: Cronos ($CRO) has an overall score of 49/100, rated as an early-stage project, with insufficient validation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Project Overview: Cronos (token $CRO), an exchange token track. Focuses on Crypto.com chains. Benchmarks OKB and BNB. Traditional centralized platforms charge commissions of 15-40%, user data is not autonomous. On-chain trustless transaction fees are lower, token incentives convert early users into contributors. Average order value is $50-500/month, settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven track, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product launch: protocol layer officially operational, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
On the user side, address MAU is not disclosed, DAU is not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active individuals; concentrated holdings of large addresses overestimate actual user numbers. On the revenue side, user fees are undisclosed; supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (belonging to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy and burn annualized without a burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. Company profits do not equal protocol profits, protocol profits do not equal token holders profit. Code side: 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is A-level evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look at PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, refer to whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level but do not represent long-term holdings by tech VCs; for technical integration, see API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. Using NVIDIA GPUs does not mean NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not mean strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no clear buyback burn. Must you buy coins to use the product? Some need to capture medium value (staking/discounting/governance). Looking at it together with peers (unified caliber, no cross-sector random comparison): Circulating market cap: Cronos $3.00B, OKB undisclosed, BNB undisclosed. FDV: Cronos $4.20B, OKB undisclosed, BNB undisclosed. Annualized revenue: Cronos $2.00M, OKB undisclosed, BNB undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Cronos not disclosed, OKB undisclosed, BNB undisclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; some omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% of the original price, neutral range oscillation; optimistic outlook: revenue doubles, burns land, enterprise clients enter, FDV P/S aligns with the top players. In short: insufficient evidence, narrative focused (score 49/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Risks to watch for: short-term large unlock dumps, long-term protocol revenue reverting to zero, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives are cut off, usage collapses). Continue to monitor: protocol fee weekliness, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. Information sources are public, logic self-developed, does not constitute buy or sell advice. Data deviations over 30% require revaluation.
This concludes the research report. Welcome to share your views.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbitLooking at ETH's popularity and tone separately, what has truly changed in this hour?
ETH popularity needs to be split into two halves: one is how many people are talking, and the other is which side the conversation leans to.
OKX Onchain OS recorded 10 mentions of ETH in one hour in the official snapshot at 13:00 (China time) on August 3, including 10 times on X and 0 news articles; A total of 309 times in twenty-four hours.
The latest hourly speed is 0.78 times the 24-hour average, meaning it is about 22% lower than the 24-hour average, which is generally considered a "slowdown." This describes attention rhythm but cannot replace price, transaction, or flow data.
In terms of tone, the hourly bias is 60% bullish, bearish 0%, and neutral about 40%, so currently, the bullish bias is clearly dominant. The 24-hour correspondence ratio is 39% slightly bullish and 21% bearish; Whether the short window is deviating from the long window is more meaningful than looking at just one percentage.
What I care about most here is actually the denominator: only 10 times. If there are a few more focused discussions, the proportions may be clearly rewritten; Retweets, quotes, and news retellings may all be talking about the same thing. You can write the position as long or bearish as is, but it shouldn't be casually translated as how much capital has established positions in the same direction.
Currently, ETH's source structure is "almost entirely driven by X." If X mentions the increase first and the news is still scarce, it feels more like the community spreading first; If news increases simultaneously, it only means more verifiable materials will be available, and you still need to return to the original announcements from foundations, agreements, regulators, or trading platforms to confirm details.
The 24-hour source background is 272 times and 37 times news. Comparing it to 10.0 times per hour shows whether the new round of discussion has shifted its distribution channels. Channel changes themselves are neither positive nor negative, but they do affect the speed and verifiability of information.
For ETH, community signals are best cross-checked with two independent data lines. Network usage allows users to view transaction fees, active addresses, L2 settlements, and staking changes; Market structure depends on spot trading, futures basis, funding rates, and options skew. Any of these are closer to real needs than a single emotional proportion.
The 24-hour average also smooths out spikes caused by announcements and market sessions. If the latest hour is below the average, it may just be a quieter period; If it is above the average, it may simply be a single event with concentrated fermentation. Two to three consecutive snapshots still in the same direction look more like a continuation rather than instantaneous noise.
This set of proportions can easily be rewritten in the next snapshot. Once the sample size is scaled up, if the overly long and empty parts quickly return to close together, it means that a small amount of text was pulling the ball just now; If the tone gap is maintained and the speed continues to rise, and there is on-chain usage or transaction data to support this, then confidence will have reason to go upward.
This round of ETH doesn't need to be forced into a conclusion. The discussion slowed down, the tone was more prominent, and the source was almost entirely driven by X. Just remember these three points first. It has yet to prove a breakout, net capital inflow, or change in on-chain demand; Whether the next round of samples can still be established after expanding is the real issue.Bless ($BLESS) surged +45.1% in 24 hours as perpetual contract trading volume surged to about $1.07B, and COINNESS reported that crypto futures liquidations across the market exceeded $48M. This round of movement appears more like leveraged pulling driven by perpetual contracts rather than clean spot accumulation, with the biggest warning being the funding rate rising to 0.1411.Trump crowing at midnight, Bitcoin and Ethereum directly surge $ETH $BTC But oil prices crash hard, two coins in the crypto circle's bulls are laughing out loud The US-Iran negotiations are really appealing to some people After midnight, the yellow-haired guy stirred things up again, directly canceling strikes on Iran He even said they would sit at the negotiation table with Iran on the 3rd This instantly blew up the global market Oil prices took a heavy hit, Brent crude oil showed a waterfall-Changxin rose 466% on its first day of listing, and his social media posts are full of screenshots. At the same time, SK Hynix released its Q2 financial report—record-breaking revenue—and said the DRAM supply tightness will continue into 2028.
It becomes interesting when viewed together. On one side, China's flagship storage chip company finally launched, recovering 295B RMB worth of ammunition. On the other hand, Koreans are telling you: sorry, DRAM will still not be enough in the next three years.
CXMT now accounts for about 5% of global DRAM capacity, mainly producing DDR4 and LPDDR4. But the market is moving toward DDR5 and HBM3E—these two categories have gross margins two to three times higher than DDR4. SK Hynix's HBM revenue in Q2 surged nearly 200% year-on-year, and Micron just doubled its HBM production plan.
The majority of CXMT's 295B will be invested in advanced process and HBM production lines. But storage chips aren't something money alone can catch—equipment embargoes, talent shortages, yield ramps, and none of these hurdles are easy.
In the short term, the stock price has a concept premium; in the medium to long term, it depends on whether HBM can sell off. The real validation node will be in 2027—whether it can enter NVIDIA's supply chain.
Next, let's look at: the proportion of R&D expenses and capital expenditure directions in CXMT's next financial report. SK Hynix's supply shortage warning is both the ceiling and the floor for CXMT—if you can't catch up, you're locked in the low end; if you do, you'll be the world's fourth best.$GRVT is at a very sensitive time. But what is worth noting is not in the +5% green candle, but in the cash flow and market sentiment.
- Open Interest (OI) continues to rise to the highest level since listing. This shows that money is still pouring into futures contracts, large fluctuations can occur at any time.
- Funding Rate is only around -0.025%, almost balanced. The market has not completely leaned towards Long or Short, so this is not the time when either side is completely in control.
- The Long/Short ratio is decreasing to about 0.7, which means that the number of short accounts is more than the Long. This creates the possibility of a short squeeze if the price continues to break above the near peak.
- The volume of takers buying and selling is almost equal. The buyer has not really dominated, but the seller is no longer able to push the price down deeply.
-The circulating supply is only about 11.43% (114 million/1 billion GRVT). This is a double-edged sword: the price can rise sharply during FOMO inflows, but it can also be very volatile if there are token unlocks.
Perspective
GRVT is no longer a beautiful buying area, but there is no clear distribution signal yet.
If whales want to pull, they will take advantage of the growing amount of short positions to force liquidation before making a short-term peak.
Conversely, if the price fails to break through the $0.29–0.30 zone, there is a high probability of a strong pullback to sweep both long and short before identifying the next trend.
This is a coin worth including on the watchlist for Futures, but should only wait for the entry point after the market confirms the direction. Don't let the green candle make you FOMO. In the current period of a sharp increase in OI, the winner is usually the one who patiently waits for the shark to reveal the card, not the one who enters the order early.SOL's current price around $73.6 rose 0.25% today, with an ATH of 295.9. It has now dropped 75% from its peak, with drawdowns even harsher than BTC and ETH.
On the daily chart, SOL is fluctuating near the 50-day moving average, holding back below the $75 100-day moving average and $79 the 200-day moving average, indicating that buying pressure has not yet formed a stable upward trend. However, selling pressure since June has indeed been easing. The $72 to $72.3 range is short-term support; if it holds, there is a chance to fill the $75.8 level. If it falls below $70.8, the downside will open up again.
There are two factors I think are worth considering in the fundamentals section. First, the total inflow of Solana spot ETFs has surpassed $1 billion, with ongoing subscriptions for products under Bitwise and Fidelity, and Morgan Stanley applying for its own Solana trust. Institutional channels are gradually expanding. Second, Forward Industries, a publicly listed company, has transformed into a treasury company specializing in hoarding SOL, holding 6.9 million SOL worth nearly $1 billion, and running its own validator nodes. This kind of corporate treasury buying is the exact opposite of the ETH vault starting to sell.
My judgment is that SOL is currently supported by ETF funds and corporate treasury buyers, but daily momentum hasn't strengthened yet. The $73 to $76 range will likely need to be retested for a while. Only a breakout above the $79 200-day moving average will truly confirm a rebound. $SOL $SOL #摩根士丹利推出ETH和SOL的现货ETP Peers lost 103 million yuan! $SNDK Raising 32.11 million against the trend—will the US stock market stir up trouble tonight?
Brothers, today's holdings data is worth scrutinizing—Micron and SK Hynix saw a combined outflow of $103 million, while SNDK went against the trend with an inflow of $32.11 million, a 36% increase month-on-month. Funds are moving on a large scale, flowing from the two major storage companies to SanDisk.
And the details are important: all new SNDK positions are long, with no short positions exceeding $1 million. This shows this is not a hedge, but a real bullish position with real money. In contrast, SKHX's whale net loss was 6.81 million, with bulls being suppressed.
Looking at the 1-hour candlestick, SNDK is now moving near the upper Bollinger band at 1262, with a golden cross above MACD and RSI in the strong 60-70 zone.
Key locations:
Resistance levels: 1262-1270, upper Bollinger band, and integer level.
Support levels: 1228-1235, near the middle Bollinger band.
Gongming's view: Tonight, the US stock market will open, and SNDK is very likely to open higher or rally at the open. Capital inflows are a leading indicator, and with the overall sentiment in the storage sector stabilizing, SNDK is currently the strongest.
Trading strategy:
Aggressive buying near 1250, steady waiting for pullback between 1235-1240 to support the long position.
Wherever the capital flows, that's where it goes. Favoring SNDK's performance tonight. #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard 5. 28% Breaking the 2007 High Cryptocurrency: The US 30-Year Treasury Bond Approaches Wall Street Target—How Much Oxygen Is Left in the Crypto Market?
5.28%。 This figure emerged after the bond market closed on August 2, as the yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury note officially surged to its highest level since 2007. Wall Street investment banks have clearly set a 5.40% target for the next stop, while the Fed, which just held its position on hold at its July meeting, has already seen several board members publicly vote against further rate hikes.
These three signals combined mean only one thing to the crypto market: the risk-free interest is gradually devouring the survival oxygen of all the non-interest-paying assets in your hands.
Most crypto retail investors are focused on Bitcoin's candlestick and the knockoff limit-up, with few seriously analyzing the underlying driving force behind the 30-year long-term bond yield. People think the Fed's pause in rate hikes means all the good news is being exhausted, and that once rates peak, rate cuts are inevitable, and after rate cuts, a new bull market is confirmed.
But this time, the rise in the 30-year yield is not a short-term interest rate game, but rather a structural fiscal deterioration trap.
The core variable driving the 5.28% rate is not the federal funds rate, but the "term premium"—the additional risk compensation global capital demands to hold long-term U.S. debt.
The U.S. government's fiscal deficit has completely spiraled out of control, with federal debt as a percentage of GDP remaining at historically extreme levels for years. The Treasury must continuously issue massive amounts of new bonds to keep old debt alive, with net supply far exceeding the capacity of global private capital. When there aren't enough buyers, sellers are everywhere, prices can only fall, and yields can only rise.
This has nothing to do with whether the Fed cuts rates or not.
Even if the Fed starts cutting rates tomorrow, as long as the U.S. government's fiscal hole doesn't shrink and the supply of Treasuries doesn't decrease, the 30-year term premium will seep upward like groundwater, pushing this long-term yield to new highs.
JPMorgan is quoting 5.40%, but personally, I think that's conservative.
But regardless of whether the 5.40% is low or less, the 5.28% level has already physically taken effect on the crypto market.
Faced with a risk-free return of 5%+, any rational large allocation fund—including institutions that frantically bought spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year—must reassess their portfolio. Bitcoin does not pay interest, Ethereum's staking yield combined with token depreciation is negative, and counterfeit is even worse. The 30-year U.S. Treasury can offer you a risk-free interest rate of 5.28% annually, so just lock it in.
IBIT recently withdrew over $100 million in a single day, marking the first shot of this "gravity field switch."
I myself have suffered a big loss on this issue. Last year, for a while, when the 10-year yield dropped from 4% to 4.5%, I stubbornly held onto my fully invested crypto spot, thinking it was just a temporary negative factor and that I would quickly turn back. As a result, the entire crypto market was silently drained by institutions during those weeks, and I watched helplessly as my net value shrank by a third. The night before last, watching the 30-year yield officially break through 5.28% of the figure, I started to feel a chill on the back of my head again. I gritted my teeth and closed all my leveraged long positions, keeping only the core Bitcoin Bitcoin spot position as a worst-case scenario.
This long-term yield is like a slowly tightening noose. It won't kill you in a day, but every basis point increase drains a drop of blood from the capillaries of the crypto ecosystem.
I myself keep asking myself: is 5.28% the last breath at the top of the range, or the beginning of a whole new era of pricing? To be honest, I lean toward the latter. Because as long as the U.S. fiscal deficit does not improve, there is no reason for the term premium to fall, and deficit issues are almost unsolvable in today's political climate.
Before this noose is completely undone, hold on to your leverage and safeguard your cash flow.
#30年期美债, the top or a new beginning? Brothers, JTO rose 4.01% today, currently at $0.502. The core of this round of recovery comes from the fundamentals supporting the implementation of the JIP-38 deflation mechanism. The JIP-38 proposal has officially taken effect, with an execution period extending at least until Q4 2027: 20% of JTX platform fees will be retained for ecosystem development, the remaining 80% will go to DAO, and 100% of all DAO revenue will be used for secondary market buybacks and JTO burns, which is currently the most solid fundamental positive. Strong authority at the ecosystem level: BAM clients cover 51.6% of Solana validators, corresponding to 31.9% of the total network staking. JTX spot trading has officially launched, and will continue to integrate perpetual contracts and forecast markets, with clear expectations for incremental trading revenue. Bearish pressure is equally significant: JitoSOL staked volume has fallen from 18 million to below 10 million, with about 11.31 million JTO unlocked monthly (equivalent to over 7 million USD), maintaining a continuous token supply that suppresses long-term upside potential. Key price levels: Resistance above: $0.63-$0.67 (short-term core resistance). Volume breakout could target $0.70-$0.80. Recovery range. Support below: $0.50-$0.52 (short-term defense zone). If this level is effectively breached, target $0.44-$0.47. JTO is currently a standard game of deflationary buyback support + unlocking selling pressure. For this type of cash-flow-type staking track,🚨 While most people are waiting for $ETH to break out…
Institutions don't seem to be waiting.
That's what makes this interesting.
Retail traders are watching the chart. Larger investors appear to be watching capital flows.
Spot Ethereum ETFs continue attracting fresh interest, even as Bitcoin ETF flows have become more balanced. Rather than leaving crypto, some investors seem to be rotating capital toward Ethereum.
That's a trend worth paying attention to.
It's not just about ETFs, either.
Ethereum continues to sit at the center of tokenization, stablecoins, and Layer-2 growth—three areas that institutions are watching closely.
📊 Key level on my radar: $4,200
A clean break above that level could bring fresh momentum and attract even more attention.
If it can't reclaim it, Ethereum may spend more time consolidating while the market waits for its next macro catalyst.
In the meantime, I'm paying closer attention to:
📈 ETF flows
🏦 Institutional positioning
🌍 Macro data and Fed expectations
Price tells you what happened.
Capital flows often hint at what could happen next.
The biggest opportunities usually appear before the headlines catch up.
Follow the money—not the noise.
#Ethereum #ETH #Bitcoin #Crypto #ETF #Trading #Web3 #DailyOrbit 《数字资产市场清晰法案》，简称《清晰法案》）的核心，是解决比特币乃至整个加密行业面临的最根本问题：监管的不确定性。
目前，关于比特币到底归美国证券交易委员会（SEC）还是美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）监管，存在长期争议。SEC的监管极其严苛，而《清晰法案》意图将比特币、以太坊等去中心化资产明确定性为商品，归属CFTC管辖。这意味着它能摆脱证券法带来的诸多束缚，被视为一种合规的配置资产，而非风险证券。
法案一旦通过，将明确银行、基金等传统金融机构持有和交易比特币的合规路径与权责边界。你提到的“合规其配置路径”正是下轮牛市最重要的叙事基础——只有当规则明朗，万亿级别的传统资金才敢于大规模、合规地进入这个市场。
尽管《清晰法案》在2026年5月已以15:9的票数通过参议院银行委员会，但卡在了最后的全体表决上，核心原因已由技术细节演变为政治伦理争议。The total token size planned to be unlocked in the next month will exceed $1.28 billion
With a large number of token unlock windows approaching, many people directly equate it with "selling off negative news," but conclusions cannot be drawn based on a single number; a layered analysis is necessary.
Core underlying logic
Unlocking essentially means the circulation of existing chips; early institutions and teams have very low holding costs, with expectations of cashing out and exiting.
Key differentiation by chip ownership: venture capital investors face the highest risk of unlocking selling pressure; Ecosystem incentive funds have relatively weak willingness to sell directly.
Two-layer market signals
1. Anticipate early pricing
Historical patterns show that panic over large unlocks often appears 30 days in advance in the market.
If market sentiment is weak, funds will reduce positions early to hedge risks, making counterfeit assets even more apparent.
2. Supply shocks ≠ one-sided declines
If the market has ample incremental funds and project narratives continue to ferment, unlocking the market could lead to a "negative news realization" rally. The key lies in the current market momentum.
Personal independent viewpoint
In the coming month, the counterfeit environment will become even more complex.
Prioritize avoiding two types of targets: coins with a high proportion of unlocked shares in circulating shares, large early gains, and tokens concentrated in early investors.
Don't rely solely on unlock news to short the market; you need to consider market liquidity and the resonance of support levels in the coin.
Mainstream BTC and ETH are not affected by direct unlocks, but collective selling pressure from knockoffs will drag down overall market sentiment.
Practical reminder
Recently, they have been investing in small-cap coins to reduce positions and avoid the unlocking window of gambling;
Wait for the unlock, the sell-off pressure fully absorbed, and then reassess the opportunity.#30年期美债, the top or a new beginning?
Guys, the yield on 30-year US Treasury notes has recently surged to 5.27%, the highest since 2007, and it's been trending online. Is it the top or a new starting point?
JPMorgan Chase has directly moved up the Fed's rate hike schedule from the second half of 2027 to December this year, and raised its forecast for the 10-year year at the end of 2026 to 4.85% and the 30-year to 5.40%. This is basically a clear statement: long-term rates can be pushed again.
US-Iran negotiations caused oil prices to plunge more than 7% in a single day, and inflation expectations began to loosen; With Japan and the US jointly safeguarding currency and FIMA buyback tools, Japan may not actually dump US Treasuries aggressively. Expectations for rate hikes are rising, oil prices are falling, and intervention funds are yet to be determined—three forces are tug-of-war around 5.3%.
From the crypto world's perspective, long-term interest rates serve as valuation anchors for risk assets. Beyond the 30-year term, the appeal of U.S. Treasuries continues to grow, and capital pressure to withdraw from stocks and crypto will increase. Especially for highly volatile assets like BTC and ETH, they are likely to continue under pressure in August.
The 5.3% level is most likely not the top, but a test at a new starting point. If the Fed really turns hawkish ahead of schedule, there is still room for long-term gains. In the short term, the outlook is volatile; in the medium term, it is a bearish risk asset. Keep your position light, cash is king, and wait for the real peak signal before making a move.
What do you think? Let's talk in the comments.#美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐
The US and Iran have set a negotiation date, causing oil prices to plunge overnight and give back gains.
A few days ago, everyone was panicking about a Middle East war breaking out, with oil prices surging past $90. Suddenly, the situation reversed dramatically. The US officially announced a pause in strikes against Iran, and both sides agreed to start talks today. As soon as the news broke, crude oil prices crashed, erasing most of the geopolitical premium gained over the past few days. Brent crude fell intraday by more than 7%, and WTI dropped below the $80 mark, with losses exceeding 6% at one point.
It wasn’t just the easing news that triggered the sell-off; OPEC+ simultaneously announced an increase in daily oil production by 188,000 barrels in September. These two bearish factors hit at the same time, causing bulls to rush for the exits and amplifying the oil price decline.
Here’s an interesting detail: the US insists that Iran actively requested the ceasefire talks, but the Iranian military directly refuted this, calling the US claim a lie. They said that only diplomatic channels are still negotiating with Oman on Strait navigation issues, maintaining a tough stance. The two sides’ statements don’t align, meaning the situation is only temporarily cooling down and far from fully stabilized. There are still significant uncertainties ahead.
Putting crude oil aside, let’s focus on the chain reactions in gold and the crypto market. I’ve been closely watching these assets back and forth:
Previously, with oil prices skyrocketing, the market feared energy price hikes would keep inflation high, preventing the Fed from cutting rates. Gold and Bitcoin were both suppressed. Now, with oil prices falling rapidly, inflation concerns have eased considerably. Capital is starting to bet ahead on the Fed accelerating rate cuts. Gold is surging, holding steady near 4060, Bitcoin is firmly above 63,000 benefiting from improved risk appetite, and Ethereum’s short-term gains are even stronger than Bitcoin’s.
Here are my practical trading thoughts, no fancy analysis, just experience from real-time monitoring:
I won’t bottom-fish crude oil casually. The sharp drop is just emotional release. Talks could collapse anytime, and Iran’s military remains tough. If negotiations fail, conflict could reignite and oil prices would spike back quickly. In such a volatile, contradictory news-driven market, I only take light positions on rebounds and never heavily bet on the bottom.
For gold, my previously placed low-position longs have already gained profits. I’m not chasing higher now because geopolitical risks haven’t fully disappeared. Even if talks go smoothly, the upcoming nonfarm payroll data will keep big money cautious. Chasing gains risks being stopped out repeatedly, so I’m holding my existing base positions.
In crypto, the overall sentiment has relaxed a lot. After the risk-off panic subsided, external funds are cautiously entering. Major coins’ consolidation levels are gradually rising, but I still haven’t opened new contract positions. Geopolitical news often causes sudden flash crashes and liquidations overnight. With so many uncertainties during talks, I’d rather earn less than risk full exposure. I only place buy orders at key supports of 62200 and 18200, adding small positions on big dips.
Right now, there are two loud camps in the community: some believe the easing situation stabilizes the market and are confident to add positions; others, experienced players, fear talks might collapse into war and plan to reduce positions on rallies to hedge. In such a choppy, back-and-forth news-driven market, do you prefer to ride the momentum and hold longs, or take profits and wait a few days to observe?周末这出“极限反转”大戏，大家看懂了吗？
周五收盘前，特朗普还在放狠话要“狠狠打击伊朗”；结果周末刚过，周日凌晨又突然宣布“不打了”，条件是霍尔木兹海峡全面开放、核问题翻篇。
最绝的是时间差：威胁全在股市关门时放，撤军全在开盘前宣布。传统股市根本来不及反应，但7x24小时不休市的加密货币和原油市场却结结实实地坐了一趟过山车——比特币$BTC 一夜之间先暴跌后拉升，原油也跟着跳水。
这已经不是第一次了。整个7月，这种“周末放狠话、开盘前找台阶”的套路反复上演。市场现在都学精了，开始把这当成“虚张声势”来定价，反应越来越钝。
但别高兴太早！虽然嘴上说和平了，但真正卡脖子的霍尔木兹海峡，目前的油轮通行量依然只有正常水平的一半。只要船没恢复正常，通胀压力就还在，美联储9月加息的达摩克利斯之剑也就没放下。
说白了，这更像是零成本的政治施压工具。明天开盘股市和油价大概率会松口气，但咱们别光看新闻标题，得盯紧海峡里的船。船不回来，这事儿就没完。
大家觉得，这到底是真退缩，还是老特的谈判套路？#美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐 🛢️The oil market is witnessing a volatile session as Brent prices fell by more than 5% to retreat to the area of $83–84 per barrel
🌍 What is causing oil to fall?
There are 3 main factors:
🇺🇸 US-Iran tensions cool down
The news that the US is suspending plans to attack Iran and prioritizing negotiations has significantly reduced the "geopolitical risk fee" that has pushed oil prices up sharply in recent years.
🛢️ OPEC+ continues to increase production
The OPEC+ alliance has approved a plan to increase production by about 188,000 barrels per day, helping the market expect more abundant supply in the coming months.
🚢 Shipping through Hormuz gradually stabilized
Tanker operations through the Middle East are showing signs of returning to normal, contributing to reducing concerns about the risk of supply disruptions
💡 Personal perspective
This decline shows that the oil market is reacting very quickly to geopolitical signals.
However, the risk has not completely disappeared.
If the negotiations fail or Middle East tensions escalate again, oil prices could completely reverse sharply.
🔥 Conclusion
Brent today is under pressure by:
📉 Expectations of the conflict cooling down.
🛢️ OPEC+ increases supply.
🚢 Reduced risk of transport disruption.
What the market will continue to watch is:
Is this just a short-term correction, or has oil prices begun to enter a more sustainable cooling phase? 🛢️
$BZ
#30YrYieldTopOrStart
#USIranBackToTalks
#USJapanYenIntervention BIT 说 BTC 下行风险缓解，但我劝你别把“短期不崩”当成“马上暴涨”
BIT Official 最近提到比特币期权市场下行保护需求在降温：Put/Call 持仓比从 0.76 降到 0.52 附近，1 周 25-delta skew 压到 4% 左右，短期买 put 对冲的成本变便宜了，说明短线资金不像前几个月那样拼命防暴跌。
我的解读：
• 短期（1–2 周）：期权定价确实在说“急跌概率下降”，加上 IV 前端低于后端，市场赌的是宏观事件落地后走震荡修复，不是单边崩盘。
• 但中期（3–6 个月 skew 还有 11%–12%）机构还在防尾部风险，BIT 自己也说本轮周期下一低点可能拖到 9 月。
• 所以“下行风险缓解 ≠ 上行趋势确认”，更像是从“怕暴跌”切换成“磨区间”。
盘面怎么应对，我的个人思路：
• 现货：别追，回踩前期承接区分批接，破位就降仓，不猜底。
• 期权：短期 sell put 收租性价比不如前阵子（skew 已平），但 buy call 追突破也容易吃 IV 回吐，观望或小仓日历价差更舒服。
• 合约：现在最忌“觉得风险小了就加杠杆”，期权平静期往往藏插针。
BIT 的数据告诉你“暂时不用怕断头铡”，但没告诉你“牛已经回来了”。8 月季节性偏弱 + 宏观没新催化剂，我的判断是——震荡洗筹码，等 9 月选方向。