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$AMD and $SPCX both exceeded expectations, so why were they still slashed after hours? AMD fell about 7% in after-hours trading, and SpaceX also dropped about 6%. It's not that the financial reports are bad, but rather that the market never priced these two companies as "normal and beyond expectations." AMD's problem is expectations too high, while SpaceX's problem is spending money too fast. AMD: The surprises have already been exhausted before the earnings report AMD's Q2 revenue was $11.536 billion, up 50% year-on-year; Adjusted EPS was $1.66, and third-quarter revenue guidance was set at around $13 billion. Data center revenue reached $6.718 billion, up 107% year-on-year, with both EPYC and Instinct seeing volume growth. This financial report would show no major issues at all for most chip companies. But AMD was still hit hard after hours. The first reason is simple: it had already risen about 7% on the day before the earnings report. Funds are buying in early, betting not on AMD slightly beating expectations, but on MI450 and Helios that they can deliver a real performance explosion ahead of time. As a result, revenue was only about 2% higher than expected, EPS about 2.5% higher, and third-quarter guidance about 4% higher. The numbers are good, but not surprising enough to support the early start before the earnings report. The second issue is gross margin. AMD's adjusted gross margin remains around 56%, and free cash flow has dropped from $2.566 billion in the previous quarter to $1.558 billion. AI chips are selling more and more, but profit margins haven't risen significantly. Naturally, the market will question whether AMD is making money through product competitiveness or by relying on lower prices to snatch Nvidia's orders. So this drop feels more like a typical case of "buying expectations, selling facts." The market is not suddenly pessimistic about AMD, but rather that the MI450 and Helios will truly contribute large-scale revenue to the market, which may not wait until the fourth quarter or even 2027. The expectations from earlier trades can only be given back for now. This serves as a reminder for optical modules and storage. AMD confirmed that demand for AI infrastructure has not disappeared, but the market no longer rewards "having orders." Orders must quickly turn into revenue, and income must continue to turn into profit; otherwise, no matter how good the financial report is, it may still get smashed. SpaceX: The more revenue exceeds expectations, the more the market worries about not having enough money to burn SpaceX's Q2 revenue was about $7.8 billion, up 92% year-on-year, significantly exceeding market expectations; Losses have also narrowed significantly. Starlink is still very formidable. Connectivity business revenue was about $4.29 billion, operating profit approached $1.66 billion, with a margin close to 39%, and paying users increased to about 12 million. Starlink is no longer the project that only burned money to grab users; it is currently SpaceX's most stable source of cash. But the problem is, this cash cow can't keep the company's current expansion pace. SpaceX's quarterly capital expenditure approached $18.4 billion, more than double its quarterly revenue, with about $15.8 billion invested in AI infrastructure. The market originally expected AI capital expenditure to be about $13 billion, but the actual figure burned nearly $3 billion more. This is the core of the after-hours sell-off. What investors see is not "SpaceX has gained another AI business," but that the company is building data centers at a pace far exceeding its revenue. The money Starlink earned was swallowed up by AI and Starship before it could even be fully restored. What's even more troublesome is that although the AI business has turned positive after adjustment, its operating margin is still operating at a loss. SpaceX's rocket business continued to lose money due to Starship development. In other words, SpaceX's only truly stable profitable business is still Starlink; the other two businesses still need continued investment. If AI contracts grow rapidly and Starship proceeds as planned, this money could certainly be redeemed for a larger market. But capital expenditures reached $18.4 billion per quarter, and any deferral would become extremely expensive. Before the earnings report, SpaceX had already seen clear front-running, with some short sellers buying early. After the results were announced, short-term funds found capital expenditures far exceeding expectations and naturally locked in profits first. Moreover, on August 6, about 912 million shares entered the first batch of unlocking windows. What the market fears most right now is not poor earnings reports, but the excessive supply of new stocks. No matter how strong the earnings report is, it is difficult to immediately offset the potential sell-off of nearly one billion shares. Why are aerospace stocks also getting hit by the drop? SpaceX is the valuation benchmark for the entire commercial space sector. Its revenue grew by 92%, and Starlink's profit margin was close to 39%, but it was still dumped by the market for burning cash too quickly. Investors easily keep asking: Even SpaceX is constantly raising funds, so when will other space companies without stable revenue truly generate cash flow? So if $RKLB, ASTS, LUNR, and RDW come under pressure in the short term, it doesn't mean they've suddenly lost orders, but rather that the market is starting to recalculate how much money the entire aerospace industry needs. RKLB's logic is relatively better. SpaceX is leaving more and more Falcon 9 capacity to Starlink, and external customers do need a second reliable launch company. But Neutron didn't succeed for a day, and RKLB's trade was still the expected one. The issue with ASTS is even more direct. Starlink proves that the demand for satellite communication is real, and also shows that SpaceX is becoming an increasingly strong competitor. Ultimately, it must prove differentiation through its own satellite deployments and operator collaborations. LUNNR and RDW mainly depend on NASA, defense contracts, and specific project progress. You shouldn't chase SpaceX's strong earnings just because it's strong, nor should you be sentenced to death just because SpaceX's post-market stock dropped. SpaceX is first watching to see if it can catch the selling after the lock-up is lifted on August 6, RKLB is still waiting for Neutron's progress, and ASTM is watching satellite deployment. Companies with orders, technology, and the ability to survive until cash flow turns positive can stay, but positions purely driven by SpaceX's sentiment increase should be cautious. This round of sell-offs is not about the market denying AI and aerospace, but rather about asking a more realistic question: After investing so much money, when will it finally be recouped?$SOL reached $74.26, up 1.08% in the past 24 hours, which indeed warmed the market. But looking at the trending data, the situation is not as straightforward as the price. In the past twenty-four hours, $SOL has been mentioned 373 times, with only 13 in the most recent hour, which is 0.84 times the average speed of the long window, indicating a clear slowdown in discussion. This slowdown refers to the number of new topics, not the market's reversal. The tone is quite bullish: 54% are bullish in the short window, only 23% bearish, and the 24-hour dimension remains at 56% to 15%. On the surface, sentiment seems good, but the problem is that short-term window heat is slowing and tone is too strong. When these two signals are put together, it feels more like existing voices are spreading repeatedly, rather than new capital being drawn in. More importantly, the sources are too concentrated—out of 373 mentions, X accounts for 372 of them, and news channels are almost nonexistent. This single driver means discussions can be quickly amplified and shared, but also easily flooded with the same narrative. To truly spill over attention, at least you need to see incremental growth on news or forum platforms; otherwise, the overly large data in the short window is worth paying close attention to. So my attitude is to wait and see, not to chase. A slight price increase combined with sentiment can easily cause a sense of missed out, but hype, tone, and genuine buying are three lines and cannot be simply equated. We need to wait for the next round of data window confirmation, such as renewed acceleration in mentions and diversified sources, or if indicators like on-chain active addresses, transaction success rate, and funding rate rebound simultaneously. At that time,$BTC 比特币实时盘面（2026-08-04 周二 09:10 UTC+8）现价：$63,384（CoinMarketCap 09:00 KST 报 $63,383.98；corolland 08:58 报 $63,327.52；Binance/OKX/Bybit 现货中位 $63,320–63,390，跨所偏差 <0.1%）日内区间：$62,640–$64,821（Binance 24h 口径），亚盘冲 6.4 万假破后回落，当前贴 63.4K 摩擦市值：$1.27 万亿，流通 20.06M BTC，占比 ~56.4% 量能：24h 现货成交 $233.7 亿（CMC，环比 -10%），反弹缩量，未过 30 日均量情绪：恐贪 25–28（恐惧/极度恐惧区间），RSI(14) ≈45 中性偏弱，MACD 日线水下死叉未改，ADX ≈15 弱趋势技术结构：62.8K 命门 vs 63.8K 压力当前是「隔夜油价跌→通胀预期松→纳指带涨摸 6.4 万假破 + ETF 三连撤 + 62.8K 未破」组合，63.8K 不放量站上都是假突破，62.8K 是今天命门。资金与宏观面（延续前版）现货 ETF：美东 8/3 净流出 3.33 亿（IBIT -2.92 亿领头），连三日出；反弹是宏观情绪不是 ETF 钱回流宏观：特朗普叫停对伊打击+WTI 跌 6%，9月加息概率回 64.6%；美联储 Williams 重申“加息仍在桌面”，10Y 美债 ~4.74%，DXY 99.6；明晚 ADP+ISM 服务业是下一窗口链上：63K 附近沉淀约 89 万枚 BTC 未动，交易所净流入但长持未动；Coldcard 漏洞涉 1755 BTC 被盗余震未消；永续 OI 偏高，63.8–64K 上方空单清算墙仍在爆仓：过去 24h 全网 $2.56 亿（BTC 空单爆 5039 万），轧空后杠杆回中性今日（周二亚欧盘）情景与思路基准（高概率）：62,800–63,800 收敛，守 62,800 则震荡偏强磨 63.3–63.8K；破则回测 62.2K 突破跟随：4H 放量站上 63,800 看 64,700；日收破 62,800 看 62,200→61,400 现货/中线：62,200–62,800 不破可分批低吸（单笔 ≤10%），日线收盘破 62,000 暂停加仓转等 60.8–61K；64,700–65K 反弹至该区先减仓合约：反抽 63,500–63,800 滞涨轻空（损 64,200 上，目标 62,800）；回踩 62,800–63,000 企稳抢反弹（损 62,450 下）；杠杆 ≤5x，美盘前不裸持关键观测窗口 62,800 日线命门 4H 收盘判定，收破即转弱看 62.2K 63,800 小时级压力能否被亚欧盘量能收回（隔夜假破不算）周二 BTC 现货 ETF 净流——IBIT 是否止流出，决定 62.8K 承接真假明晚 ADP+ISM 服务业，8/7 非农前 24h 清高杠杆 ⚠️ 客观盘面梳理非投资建议。62.8K 是近期命门，假突破/假跌破多于真信号，止损距离比平时放宽 20–30%。单行速览：BTC 62.2/62.8/63.8/64.7 | 现价 $63,384 | 今日偏向：隔夜假破 6.4 万回落，62.8K 防守战延续，震荡待 63.8K 选向。$BTC #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴接下来这几份“成绩单”，看的不只是单家公司表现更像是AI、商业航天、稳定币三条高热赛道的一次集中验货 AMD最关键的问题，是AI芯片需求到底有没有从“预期”变成“订单” 市场已经不满足于听见增长故事，更在意数据中心收入、MI300系列出货、客户导入节奏，以及毛利率能否持续抬升如果AI业务继续超预期，AMD有机会证明自己不只是英伟达叙事下的替代选项反之，估值再高的主题也会回到业绩兑现本身 SpaceX的意义则不止于一家航天公司星链用户增长、发射频率、商业化收入与现金流能力，决定市场是否愿意继续为“太空基础设施”给出更高溢价过去大家买的是想象力，现在要看的是规模化之后，能不能跑出真正可复制、可持续的商业模型最后的Circle，可能是这轮观察里最值得细看的变量稳定币规模只是表面，真正影响估值的是利率收入是否稳固、合规壁垒能否拉开，以及USDC能否从交易工具升级成全球支付与结算网络当市场开始讨论稳定币的未来，Circle交出的其实是一份加密金融基础设施的答卷 AI看算力变现航天看商业闭环稳定币看合规与现金流故事能推高情绪，但财报才能确认价格这一轮，谁能交卷，谁又只是讲故事，很快会有答案仅供交流，不构成投资建议 Solana通缩提案获四成支持拟翻倍通缩率昨晚 Solana 社区聊得最热的一件事，不是哪个 meme 币又拉了，而是一份叫 SGP-0002 的链上提案。说白了，它想把 Solana 的年通缩率从现在的百分之十五直接翻倍到百分之三十。这事听着枯燥，但它动的是 SOL 长期供应的根。提案一旦通过，Solana 到达终极通胀率百分之一点五的时间，会从差不多五年七个月缩短到两年八个月，六年里少发的 SOL 大约有一千八百九十万枚。对长期持有者来说，这就是实打实的供应收紧。现在投票走到了哪一步。支持票已经攒到两千七百一十九万枚 SOL，离门槛还差一截。门槛是百分之十的活跃质押，也就是四千三百二十七万枚，目前刚摸到百分之四十一点九。还没过线，但势头不慢。有意思的是这个时间点。就在前几天，Solana 基金会刚密集挂出三个招聘：稳定币负责人、AI 负责人、亚洲机构负责人。明摆着把战略重心从 meme 叙事往真实收益和机构采用上挪。一边招人做实业务，一边投票加码通缩，两套动作像是同一个判断：meme 的热度靠不住，得用供应面和机构牌来撑长期价值。再把镜头拉远一点。之前那波 meme 狂潮里，Solana 靠土狗和散户交易量赚足了眼球，可真留下来的东西，除了几根上引线没多少。现在基金会自己都在往外递信号，说要"阶跃式增长"得靠真东西。通缩提案就是这套叙事里最硬的一颗钉子。但通缩这事向来有两面。供应少了不代表价格就涨，需求端如果起不来，少发那部分只是慢一点稀释，托不住估值。而且提案还只是"支持阶段"，后面要进全面治理投票，变数不少。咱们手里那些长线仓位，看这种提案时别只盯数字。真正该问的是： Solana 这套"通缩加机构"的组合拳，到底能不能把真实使用和资金留下来。毕竟市场从来不缺好故事，缺的是故事讲完之后还愿意留下来的人。你看好 Solana 这步棋吗，还是觉得通缩只是自我安慰。$SPCX Around 4:00 AM (Beijing time), the SPCX USDT contract is prone to sharp fluctuations, mainly due to the combined resonance of several factors: 1. U.S. stock market closing and sudden changes in liquidity 4:00 AM Beijing time corresponds to 4:00 PM Eastern Time, which is the closing time of the regular U.S. stock trading session. After the US stock market closed, many pricing references based on spot US stocks disappeared, while SPCXUSDT, as a perpetual contract, continued to trade 24 hours a day. The market entered a "no anchor" state, with bid and ask depth noticeably declining and liquidity decreasing to make prices more easily driven by large orders. 2. Centralized settlement of funding rates The funding rates for OKX perpetual contracts are typically settled at multiple times such as 0:00, 4:00, 8:00, 12:00, 16:00, and 20:00 (UTC+8). At 4 a.m., one of the settlement nodes was the main settlement node. When the funding rate is settled, the side with unfavorable positions must pay fees, which may trigger a large number of contract liquidations or reverse openings, causing short-term sharp price fluctuations. 3. Concentrated release of major news such as financial reports Take SpaceX as an example: its Q2 earnings call was scheduled to start at 4:30 a.m. Beijing time on August 5. Key events such as major earnings reports and Fed speeches are often released during this period. After the news is released, the market quickly digests the information, making directional price breakouts more likely. 4. Staggered Whale Operations Around 4 a.m., most Asian traders are asleep, with relatively few market participants. Whales and big players often use this "low crowd" period to conduct large trades to reduce the cost of shocking the market and to amplify the impact of their own orders on prices. Overall, 4 a.m. is precisely the window with the thinnest liquidity, the densest news, the most concentrated capital settlements, and the most active whales. With multiple factors resonating, it is highly inevitable that SPCXUSDT will experience sharp fluctuations during this period.$SNDK After the SanDisk session, it climbed up to 1415. But the real highlight is tonight's after-hours US market session—SanDisk's Q4 earnings report. The past few days have been a heated debate. The key tonight isn't whether it exceeds the guidance, but whether it can exceed market expectations. If it merely hits the upper limit of the guidance, it may be seen as "below expectations" and dumped by funds. Last night, the storage sector rose broadly, with SanDisk rising over 10%. It may seem aggressive, but this kind of push-up before the earnings report is often a way to price in 'positive expectations' in advance. If the financial report only meets expectations, it can actually make it easier to "buy expectations and sell facts." Semiconductor stocks weakened after hours, with SanDisk falling more than 2% in after-hours trading. This indicates that some funds had already chosen to hedge before the earnings report, rather than fundamental issues. Can AI storage demand continue to accelerate: Data center revenue surged 233% quarter-on-quarter last quarter, which is the core logic behind this round of increases. Tonight, we must see that momentum doesn't stop. Another indicator is gross margin. Can gross margin hold above 80%? Company guidance is 79%-81%, market expectation is close to 80%. If it falls below 80%, it is interpreted as a "peak signal." This is the variable that truly determines direction. If it can be confirmed that supply-demand tightness will continue into 2027, it would be solid evidence of the logic of "valuation transformation." The options market expects volatility of 17%-21% ± after earnings reports, and tonight's volatility will not be small. Waiting for the financial report to be released before making a move is ten thousand times safer than betting on the direction. If it exceeds expectations + volume increases and holds above 1450, chase long on the right, target 1550-1600, stop loss at 1400. If it falls short of expectations or the guidance is conservative, the downside could be 1300-1350, or even 1200-1250. If you want to go long but fear missing out, test the pullback to 1350-1370, shrink volume and stabilize, light position and test long, stop loss at 1330, target 1450. Don't bet before earnings; follow the direction after landing. If you don't understand, just wait; don't force it. No matter how you open a position, always keep it light and use low leverage. As the old saying goes—surviving is ten thousand times more important than making money quickly. I hope all brothers can get lucky and make big money! 👊 $PUMP PUMP surged 15%, breaking through 0.00245, with bearish squeeze igniting the rally The meme coin PUMP surged 15% today, closing at $0.00245. The core driving force remains short squeeze — after large-scale unlocks, only 4% flowed into exchanges, disappointing selling expectations and forcing bears to close and cover prices, driving price rebounds. Pump.fun platforms continue to buy back and burn tokens to provide deflationary support, but this round of rally is more a psychological game than fundamental changes. In the short term, pay attention to changes in short positions; be cautious about chasing highs. #从降息到加息, Fed Divergences Fully Revealed #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to intervene, Circle closes #Palantir营收增93%, post-hours gain 13% $BTC $SOL Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market has experienced a period of "targeted liquidation" for short sellers. According to Coinglass data, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $165 million. Of this, short liquidations amounted to $107 million, while long liquidations amounted to only $57.49 million—the volume of short liquidations was nearly double that of long positions. Short liquidations totaled 107 million yuan vs. long positions 57.49 million yuan, showing a clear "one-way squeeze" pattern. Bears were forced to close positions amid the simultaneous rebound in US stocks and crypto markets: SK Hynix rose 8%, SanDisk rose 10.8%, and Nvidia rose over 2%—the comprehensive comeback in memory chips and AI sectors directly broke through the bears' defenses. Short liquidations were about 1.86 times those of long positions, marking the largest single-day liquidation suffered by bears in the past two weeks. Short-selling liquidations are concentrated in BTC and ETH perpetual contracts, indicating that previously overcrowded bearish sentiment is being cleared away. During the process of intensive short positions being liquidated layer by layer, prices are often pushed higher than expected—SanDisk's 10.8% and SK Hynix's 8% can serve as references. Both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 hit record highs, and news of storage capacity being sold out ahead of schedule continues to ferment—both macro and fundamentals are putting pressure on the bears. Bears were cleared out, but prices remain below key resistance levels. Next, will the bulls press the advantage, or wait for new bears to re-enter? It depends on whether the 64,000 level can truly be taken. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard #CLARITY法 #ISM创四年新高, U.S. Treasury yields have reversed The ISM Manufacturing PMI reached 55.6, a four-year high. New orders, production, and employment all strengthened. According to traditional macro logic, an overheated economy should have pushed up U.S. Treasury yields. However, the market showed a clear divergence: after the data was released, U.S. Treasury prices rose while yields fell, and this expectation gap is worth the attention of all traders. Why is it that strong data can't achieve high returns? 1. Falling oil prices offset concerns about overheated manufacturing inflation. Although manufacturing demand is booming, recent easing of Middle East conflicts and a sharp drop in oil prices have led the market to judge that inflationary pressure on the energy side is temporarily easing, offsetting inflation concerns caused by the manufacturing boom, prompting buying of long-term bonds. 2. The market has already priced in strong economic expectations. Previous long-term bond yields surged all the way, already priced in the reality of US economic resilience and delayed rate cuts. ISM merely validates existing judgments and has not brought in an unexpectedly high inflation increase, allowing "buying facts" funds to enter the market. 3. Hidden risks within each item. Although the price sub-item remains high, it has already marginally declined. The market believes the manufacturing recovery is a mild recovery, not an overheated outbreak, and not enough to force the Fed to resume rate hikes. Two-layer market signals 1. Short-term: Risk assets are entering a window of sentiment recovery U.S. Treasury yields retreated, easing valuation pressure on duration assets like BTC and ETH. The US stock cyclical sector benefited from the manufacturing boom, with increased risk appetite and indirectly driving a rebound in the crypto market. 2. Do not be misled by short-term market trends in the medium to long term. ISM remains above the 50 threshold, indicating strong economic resilience and that rate cuts are likely to be delayed. This round of yield decline is a temporary recovery and does not mean the upward trend in interest rates has completely reversed. Once inflation data rises again, yields will rebound quickly. Personal independent viewpoint This is a typical market where "expectations are fully met, and data is being delivered." Do not interpret this yield pullback as a signal of a liquidity turn. A strong economy + falling oil prices are only temporary portfolio dividends. Whether these dividends can continue depends on whether oil prices can remain low and whether PCE inflation data continues to cool down. Practical insights from mapping encryption In the short term, you can bet on sentiment recovery, but avoid chasing highs. The macro environment remains that high interest rates will persist for longer; this is only a pulse positive and is not enough to drive a large-scale bull market. Key follow-up tracking: PCE inflation and whether the 30-year Treasury yield can effectively break through key levels downward. In one day, 165 billion in short positions were harvested In the past 24 hours, $165 million in positions in the entire contract market have been forcibly liquidated, of which 107 million are short positions, and only about 57 million are long. Bitcoin only slightly pushed upward, but those betting on a decline couldn't hold out first. Interestingly, another set of data is available. At the same time, the funding rates on mainstream exchanges also show the market overall leaning bearish, meaning most people are actually opening short positions, betting that the market will fall. When the funding rate is negative, short sellers still have to pay long ones every day, but if the losses aren't much, people don't care; the bet is on the price dropping to earn the difference. But once the price rebounds and the strong closing line is triggered, the system automatically buys and closes positions at the market price, pushing the price higher and drawing more short positions in. This is a typical bearish stampede, similar to a short squeeze in stocks. I stared at the Coinglass chart for a while. Short positions were liquidated at 107 billion yuan, less than twice the amount of long positions, yet concentrated in a small upward window. This shows that many people were inertia in the downtrend, thinking it could go even lower, but unexpectedly, they were swept away by a rebound. This is where the harshness of the contract market begins: those with the right direction may not survive, and those who can't withstand leverage are eliminated first. This structure is also a signal for those of us who do four-hour charts. The EMA50 and EMA200 crossover you are essentially looking for trend confirmation. Concentrated short positions often occur when the trend has quietly started and the bears are still dreaming. By the time the crossover signal actually appears, the price may have already gone a bit. When the amount of liquidation on short positions is more than twice the long position, and this happens amid a slight rise, it often indicates that the support below is stronger than those who shout 'waterfall' imagine. Many experienced traders treat short liquidation as a crowding thermometer. The more heavily the blowout, the more people are betting on shorts. Once the price stabilizes, these forced liquidation orders become bullish fuel. I'm not sure where to go next. But one thing is clear: when the entire internet is overwhelmingly bearish and funding rates are clearly bearish, that reverse move is the most fatal. The person who firmly believes a big drop is going and fills their position with short positions—how much is left in their account at this moment? During the day, we watch candlesticks and wait for a golden cross; at night, we review our holdings. Have you ever considered whether you are on the bull side or have already been swept away by the bearish sentiment?Most investors are now asking the wrong question. "Is it worth buying memory stocks?" In fact, the main question sounds different. Will AI require more memory... Or will he learn to use it more effectively? For the past two years, the logic has been as simple as possible. More Nvidia GPUs → more HBM per GPU → higher HBM prices → higher memory manufacturers' profits. But now this formula is beginning to change. According to reports from the industry, some versions of Rubin Ultra may go from 12-layer HBM to 8-layer. This does not mean the end of the AI boom. This means that Nvidia is increasingly optimizing the efficiency of the entire AI system, rather than just increasing the amount of memory. For SK Hynix, Micron and Samsung, a completely different stage of competition begins. Now it's more important not just to release more memory. And to get the most profitable contracts and keep the margin. The AI doesn't end. The era when memory could be bought "blindly" is coming to an end. Who do you think will be the main winner of the next stage - SK Hynix, Micron or Samsung? $SAMSUNG $MU $SKHY 30年期美债收益率飙到5.27%，这是2007年以来的最高水平。市场现在面对一个粗暴逻辑：当无风险收益超过5%，谁还愿意把钱扔进波动剧烈的风险资产？资金流向正在发生微妙变化，机构和散户都在重新权衡比特币的持有成本。某机构的最新判断更让风险资产承压，美联储可能比预期更早动手加息。高收益率环境下，资金抽离比特币和科技股的压力确实存在。利空因素显然不止这一条，油价持续下行或许能缓解通胀焦虑，但日本若通过抛售美债干预汇市，只会把美债收益率推得更高，这种螺旋式施压对加密市场并不友好。尽管宏观面风声鹤唳，$BTC 却展现出惊人韧性。现货ETF通道的净流入还在持续，机构资金没有出现恐慌性撤退。比特币当前报价64230美元，过去24小时仍有1.12%的涨幅，这已经说明问题。但必须承认，69K到70K这个前高压力区没能有效收复之前，谈趋势反转都是空话。多空博弈就看未来几周，美债收益率的强势吸引着保守资金，而ETF的吸水效应又在支撑币价。谁先耗尽对方的耐心，方向就明朗了。眼下$BTC 的处境更像是弹簧被压到了临界点，65000美元整数关口是分水岭，站稳了自然有资金跟进，站不稳就得继续震荡消耗。 #财 SPCX First Financial Report Options GEX Preview $SPCX This is an option performance dominated by negative GEX This means that SPCX will amplify volatility regardless of whether the financial report is good or bad From the perspective of option flow, a large number of sell puts were traded around $90-110 This would mean that SPCX will have considerable buying support at the lower bound of the $90-110 range ———————— Key Information: Recently, SPCX has experienced two consecutive months of negative growth related to Starlink. As SpaceX's largest revenue segment, this could impact SPCX's revenue expectations—everyone should be well aware of this. (See Figure 3) #SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion ban is about to be lifted He was imprisoned for twenty-five years, unable to escape money but unable to get back The New York Federal Court of Appeals made a non-suspenseful decision this Tuesday, upholding SBF's conviction. This FTX founder is about to spend a full twenty-five years in prison. Counting from that shocking explosion in 2022 until now, it's been almost four years. Many people may have forgotten the details. FTX was once one of the world's top crypto exchanges, with a peak valuation of $32 billion, sponsoring the World Cup, naming the Miami Arena, inviting celebrities to endorse, and its glory was so impressive it hardly felt like a company founded only three years ago. Then, on an ordinary November, it suddenly announced it was insolvent, with billions of dollars in customer funds vanishing. Prosecutors later declared this one of the largest financial fraud cases in U.S. history. Last year, SBF was sentenced to twenty-five years. Of course, he was dissatisfied, appealing that he had no subjective malice and that the trial was flawed. But the Court of Appeal blocked that path on Tuesday. Upholding the original verdict means he will most likely serve his sentence until around seventy years old. How much money is involved in this case? When FTX collapsed, the funding gap left for customers was estimated at about $8 billion, and hundreds of thousands of accounts were frozen overnight. Even more ironically, just a month before the scandal, SBF appeared on the cover of Forbes, holding the title of a self-made billionaire. Court records show that he admitted to diverting customer funds to fill gaps in related transaction platforms, but he always denied that this was subjective fraud. Interestingly, there's another side. One person in the courtroom, another group outside the courtroom. After FTX's collapse, millions of users worldwide were trapped in funds, with many putting their entire fortunes on it. The bankruptcy administrator has returned over 100% of the amount to some approved claimants through asset sales and restructuring, as Bitcoin has rebounded significantly over the past two years. However, the process is lengthy, the number of forms is numerous, and the coin conversion process is time-consuming step by step, making it difficult for ordinary people to wait. A man who hyped up the exchange as the safest place ended up in prison himself, while the ordinary people who once trusted him still have money on the long journey home. This actually relates to our market monitoring. A few days ago, Zhao Changpeng said that, statistically, putting coins on an exchange is safer than self-custody, because most of the coins lost by self-custody are not reported. That's true, but the FTX incident reminds us that statistics are statistics, but individual cases are individual cases. A top-three exchange can keep hundreds of thousands of people restless overnight by not relying on a single safety declaration. I'm not sure who will be the next bomb or on what day. But one thing is becoming clearer: which platform we entrust our positions to might be more worth investing in than the EMA crossover on the candlestick chart. That person who watches the four-hour chart during the day, waiting for the EMA50 golden cross, has he ever thought about where his money would be stuck if the platform failed? SBF's 25 years are set. But when the money that once deposited into it will be fully recovered remains a mystery to this day.In-depth analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum market trends in August: Key decisions amid bullish and bearish battles In August 2026, the cryptocurrency market stands at a critical crossroads. After an 11.5% rebound in July, Bitcoin is facing the test of the year's weakest month, the "seasonal curse," with its current price consolidating narrowly in the $63,000-$65,000 range. Ethereum is making a directional selection in the $1,850-$1,950 range, showing a technically strong trend with strong volatility but sentiment indicators in a complex pattern of "extreme fear." This article combines the latest on-chain data, ETF capital flows, seasonal patterns, and technical patterns to deeply analyze the short-term movement logic of BTC and ETH, providing investors with practical strategic advice. 1. Bitcoin: Choosing a Direction During Volatility and Recovery 1.1 Current Market Landscape As of the early hours of August 5, 2026, Bitcoin was trading at around $63,400, in the middle of the range of volatility since early July. Looking at the four-hour chart, after bottoming out at $57,748 on July 1, the price has continuously formed a corrective structure that raised the low, with the low gradually moving up from 57,748→60,004→61,176→62,287, indicating that bulls are gradually digesting the selling pressure ahead. Currently, the candlestick is consolidating above $63,000, indicating that bulls are gathering momentum, but there are dense trapped positions in the $66,000-$68,000 range, making a direct breakout difficult in the short term. Looking at the hourly level, after pulling back to around $61,500, there were several rapid pullbacks, showing weak continuity of the bearish candlestick. Afterwards, the bullish candle reclaimed $63,000, indicating that support below still exists. However, it should be noted that since July 3, Bitcoin has been consolidating within the $66,885 to $60,965 range, and a break through this narrow range will determine the direction of the August rally. 1.2 The Seasonal Curse: Why Is August the Weakest Month of the Year? Historical data doesn't lie. August was Bitcoin's worst month of the year, with a historical median change of -7.87%, an average return of only -0.64%, and a decline in August every year since 2022. This "seasonal curse" forms the core argument of the current bears. But historical laws are not absolute. Although August 2023 closed lower, the decline was only about 11%, far from reaching an extreme low. Each cycle has its own macro background and capital structure. Currently, ETFs and whales are supporting the market, so the actual impact of historical patterns may be overestimated. 1.3 Liquidity Flow: ETF cooling and divergence from whale accumulation Capital flows have long shown warning signs. The weekly net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs plummeted from a peak of $197 million on July 10 to $33.79 million on July 24, a weekly drop of 83%. Although institutional investors have not significantly sold off, demand for funds is gradually cooling down. However, on-chain data presents a different picture. Data from July 19 shows that Bitcoin whales accumulated 66,700 BTC holdings in 60 days, valued at about $4.3 billion at the time, marking the largest wave of whale buying since February 2026. Whale addresses holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have increased their holdings for three consecutive weeks. This divergence of "ETF cooling + whale accumulation" reflects serious divisions among market participants: institutional trading seats may be exiting, but the largest wallet holders are ramping up their positions. 1.4 Cautious signals from long-term holders What deserves even more attention is the behavioral changes of long-term holders. The "Hodler Net Position Change" indicator, which measures long-term wallet holdings, shows that on May 24, this metric once peaked at 42,301 Bitcoins, but by July 26 it had dropped to 15,766 Bitcoins—a 47% drop in just two weeks. Although long-term holders are still slowly increasing their holdings, the pace of their increases has clearly cooled, and some staunch holders are becoming more cautious, preparing for a potential market correction. 1.5 Technical Patterns: The Game Between Head and Shoulders Top and Support Levels Looking at the three-day moving average, since early March, Bitcoin has been operating in a "head and shoulders top" pattern. Since June 30, although prices have rebounded somewhat, buying volume has actually continued to shrink. This low-volume performance behind this right-shoulder rally is a classic "exhaustion" signal. The key watershed is at $60,965. If this level is breached, the support below will be broken, and the neckline area will test down to the $54,000 level. If the neckline is broken, it could trigger a technical downtrend, with a target possibly at $41,266. Conversely, if the three-day close can break above $66,885, bulls are likely to regain momentum, with the price targeting $76,118. 1.6 Trading Strategy: Be patient and wait, don't chase highs Based on the above analysis, Bitcoin is currently not suitable to chase long near the $66,000-$68,000 resistance level. Although there is strong support in the $61,000–$62,000 range below, the dual pressures of seasonal weakness in August and cooling ETF funds carry significant risks of blindly chasing the rally. It is recommended to wait for a pullback to confirm support in the $61,500-$62,500 range before considering entry, or wait for a valid breakout above $68,000 to follow the trend. 2. Ethereum: Weak Recovery or Bullish Trap? 2.1 Current Market Landscape Ethereum is currently trading at around $1,872, in a consolidation phase after rebounding from the June low of $1,600. Looking at the four-hour chart, solid resistance has formed near the previous high of $1,936, and the overall trend remains in a consolidation recovery phase after a pullback from the high. The rebound from the low of 1,600 to the current price is merely a minor correction after a decline and has not reversed the previous overall downward trend. The hourly chart shows that although there was a slight bullish rebound in the short term, the rebound was moderate, with heavy resistance at the $1,898-$1,950 level, and multiple tests failed to break through. This round of rebound lacks sustained capital support and is a weak recovery rally; the higher the rebound, the heavier the selling pressure. #从降息到加息, Fed Divergences Fully Revealed. #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to take over, Circle leads with a #Palantir营收增93% lead, rising 13% $BTC $ETH $SNDK in after-hours trading 📉 Last night, BTC surged to $64,050. On the surface, it seemed like a broad rally, but the underlying logic is worth breaking down: this is not a simple standalone rally, but the result of a rebound in US risk appetite and a resonance of crypto market capital. 📊 Let's look at the market first: on the 1-hour chart, BTC surged rapidly during the opening session of the US market, surging straight to 64,050. This window is very typical—last night, U.S. tech stocks collectively strengthened, the Nasdaq index rose more than 2%, and Microsoft's earnings beating expectations further fueled market risk appetite. As a high-volatility risk asset, Bitcoin followed the trend during this phase, forming a clear short-term linkage with US tech stocks. 🧠 But the US stock market is just a catalyst, not the only reason. Previously, BTC experienced a deep pullback, dropping to a low of $62,227. The market itself has accumulated oversold demand for repair, and bears are also facing buying pressure. Last night's strong performance in US stocks happened to provide a technical window for buyers to gain momentum: "External positive news + oversold internally."Overview of Key Global Financial Market Events and Data (August 5) — Can BTC hold above 64K? Is the price rebounding or reversal? Brothers and sisters, now is good! The US stock market has closed, and Asian stock markets are about to open. Let's take a look at the core events happening in today's global financial markets. Today, a warning signal has emerged in the global financial markets: With one sentence from Becent, the entire market was set ablaze: oil prices fell 12% in two days, the Dow surged nearly 1,000 points, and BTC returned to 64,000. But is this the beginning of a "inflation-lowering deal," or is it another wave of expectations management? 1. US-Iran Negotiations: Qatar Claims Progress, Iran Still Denies U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent sent a major signal in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday: "The U.S. and Iran may reach an agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday or Wednesday"—the market quickly priced in this as a certainty event. However, Iran's position remains unchanged. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson made it clear that in recent days Iran has no plans to receive or send delegations; the only negotiation target is Oman, with the topic being the passage plan for the Strait of Hormuz. However, Qatar's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Al-Ansari revealed key progress: the mediator is assisting the US and Iran in exchanging draft agreements, and related diplomatic talks have reached a "very progressive stage." My interpretation: Qatar confirmed that both sides are exchanging draft agreements, clarifying that the negotiations are not Trump's unilateral "tweet diplomacy," and Iran does not recognize the negotiations as a strategy aimed at gaining bargaining chips. Doesn't Iran look a lot like Trump? Just a bit of talk, but honest in body! The real agreement is still progressing, but it is still far from being implemented. Once the agreement is truly signed, oil prices may continue to fall, further cooling inflation expectations. If it doesn't materialize, oil prices may rebound faster than they fall. 2. U.S. Stock Market Performance: Both the Dow and S&P 500 hit record highs On Tuesday, all three major U.S. stock indexes surged: the Dow rose 1.71% to 54,085.88 points, setting a record closing high, the S&P 500 gained 1.79% to 7,736.52 points, and the Nasdaq gained 2.59% to 26,584.99 points. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged, with Palantir up over 29%, AMD up 7%, SanDisk and Intel up over 10%. Caterpillar rose over 5%, boosted by better-than-expected earnings and upward revenue guidance. My interpretation: The logic behind the tech stock rise is "strong AI demand + falling oil prices easing inflation concerns," Palantir's surge is driven by its own performance, and its transmission to BTC is an indirect emotional overflow. However, the overall record high in US stocks is a positive signal for BTC. 3. Commodities: Oil prices plunged for two consecutive days, with a cumulative drop of about 12% WTI crude fell more than 6% on Tuesday, hitting a low of $75.19 per barrel; Brent crude fell more than 5.4%, falling below $80 to $79.21 per barrel. Oil prices have fallen about 12% over two consecutive days, with the core driver still being the market expectation that the Strait of Hormuz will soon reopen. Gold rose above $4,090, while U.S. Treasury yields fell from 4.68% to 4.62%. My interpretation: The divergence between oil prices and gold indicates the market is trading a "lowering inflation" logic: falling oil prices → cooling inflation expectations→ falling US Treasury yields→ and rising valuations of risk assets. Whether this logic can continue depends on whether the US-Iran agreement can truly be implemented. If it were just another round of "tweet diplomacy," everything could be reversed. 4. Cryptocurrency Market: BTC climbs back above 64,000, with consecutive inflows into ETFs. BTC is currently trading near 64,188, reclaiming the $64,000 mark. After reaching a high near 64,400 in the previous trading day, it pulled back slightly, with the current price fluctuating around 64,200. On the ETF side, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $170 million on Monday, while BlackRock IBIT contributed $111 million, reversing last week's net outflow. Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of $102 million in one day and $79.36 million over seven days; Ethereum ETFs saw a net outflow of $12.27 million in one day and $30.44 million in the seven-day outflow, with capital flows continuing to diverge. On the liquidity side, the average trading volume of 44 spot exchanges fell to $15 billion last Sunday, the lowest this year and 70% below the January peak. On-chain data shows that about 0.7% of BTC supply has changed hands in the $62,000-$65,000 range. CryptoQuant has characterized this as "absorption rather than surrender," consistent with the pattern of retail panic cutting and whales continuously increasing their holdings. My interpretation: BTC returns to 64K, and net ETF inflows are a positive signal. But what truly deserves attention is whether ETFs can continue to flow in and whether the US-Iran agreement can truly be implemented. Technically, 64,653 (EMA50) is the first resistance, and a breakout with shrinking volume is unlikely to hold steady. 5. Today's Key Focus (1) At 20:15 Beijing time, US July ADP employment data — market expects an increase of about 68,000; (2) 21:45 Beijing time, US July Services PMI; (3) At 22:00 Beijing time, the US July ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (expected 54.5, previous 54.0); (4) Progress in US-Iran negotiations—Qatar confirmed that both sides are exchanging draft agreements, focusing on whether they will actually be implemented; (5) SpaceX earnings report (US stock market after-hours). 6. My core judgment With one sentence from Becent, oil prices crashed, US stocks rose, and BTC rebounded, but it is still impossible to say the direction is set. Qatar confirmed that both sides are exchanging draft agreements; U.S.-Iran negotiations are indeed progressing, but there is still some distance before final signing. Whether BTC can continue to break upward still depends on whether the US-Iran agreement can truly materialize and whether ETFs can continue to flow in. 64,653 is the first level. "Which side will you choose today?" 》 If the US-Iran agreement really takes effect this week, do you think BTC will: A: Break through 64K and hold firm, challenging 65,000-65,500 B: After a brief rebound, pullback; 64K remains the ceiling C: Continue to fluctuate in the 63-64K range, waiting for nonfarm payroll data I'll vote for A first. Agreement implementation = continued pressure on oil prices = cooling inflation expectations = easing pressure on Fed rate hikes. This logic chain is a tangible positive for risk assets. Which one would you choose? Share your judgment in the comments.Last April, when $GOOG was 140, $INTC 20, $MU 70, no one could say what these companies would rely on to make money three years from now. Now it's clear: the valuation multiples haven't changed, but people don't dare to buy. This is the definition of cognitive gap. The same valuation multiple, last year's buying was uncertainty. What you buy now is something that has already been proven. The visibility of the denominator is completely different, yet the market demands the same or even higher discounts. The risk premium of this compression has not been reduced. However, institutions are assessed quarterly and must deliver relative returns within the window. Retail investors don't have to play the rules of the game; time is their only structural advantage, but their biggest emotional weakness. Most people don't even understand the companies they're investing in, and Burry makes sense. Read more of the articles I share about company fundamental analysis, which also include valuation and buy-side records. Most people just happened to give up on it when prices dropped. A drop in stock prices after a good earnings report does not mean the fundamentals have been disproven. Strong stocks entering high-volatility consolidation does not mean the long-term trend has ended. Many excellent companies have continuously increased their long-term value during the downturn. Skin in the game。 True investing is not about avoiding all fluctuations, but about knowing why you are worth enduring those fluctuations. [Review] Records classic market panic periods On the 5th day of regular averaging, bought 100U BTC in spot today. Don't leave your fate to others' predictions Looking back at my previous post, the precise predictions of time and target locations in the 2025 chat records are very real examples. It seems as if they have already seen through the future market trends. But in reality, I've seen many friends leverage their analyses and heavily invest in gambling. Even if the overall direction is correct, it cannot withstand the sharp fluctuations midway and ultimately exit at a loss. The market is full of sudden variables; no one can predict tops and bottoms with certainty. I choose to slowly accumulate coins at my own pace, not aiming to buy at the lowest or sell at the highest. Only use spare money to invest regularly in batches, earn money from cycles, and avoid gambling on short-term market games. In the trading market, surviving always comes before making quick money. Feel free to share the pitfalls you've fallen into. ⚠️ Disclaimer: Personal insights only and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC Tomorrow (August 5), SanDisk's after-hours earnings report from the US stock market will be released. According to the data, the current price is about $1,415. Going long before the earnings report is a high-difficulty game, with options market expectations fluctuating about ±21%, and the direction uncertain. --- 📊 Current market signals Slightly bullish signal: · It rose 38.25% over 7 days, showing strong short-term rebound · The US chip sector surged collectively, with SanDisk surging over 10% before and during trading. · Jointly released the HBF (High Bandwidth Flash) OCP standard with SK Hynix, with Google participating in verification Bearish signal: · Still down 22% on the 30th, retraced over 40% from all-time high of $2354 · Perpetual contract funding rates turn negative—shorts start paying off longs · The ratio of long-short futures accounts shows crowded long positions (with a very high proportion of long positions in the data). --- 🎯 Key location references Resistance above: $1,400-1,450 → $1,500-1,550 → $1,600 Support below: $1,300 → $1,200-1,220 → $1,100 --- 📰 Earnings expectations Company guidance on market expectations Revenue: $7.75-8.25 billion, $8.3-8.44 billion EPS $30-33 $34.2-34.8 The key is not to exceed company guidance, but to exceed market expectations. Revenue should ideally reach 35, and the 2027 fiscal year guidance should continue to be raised, so the stock price has a chance to surge by 15-25%. If it only meets the company's guidance but fails to meet market expectations, it may be "pulled first, then dumped"; Revenue below $8.1 billion or guidance loosens and could fall another 15-25%. --- 💡 Several approaches 1. Wait for financial reports to materialize: the most stable. If the volume surges above 1,300 after the earnings report, it is time to wait and see 2. Light position and long position: Small positions near the current price, with a strict stop-loss set between 1,500 and 1,600 3. Long is not the only option: If the price drops below $1,300 after earnings and volume increases, it's actually time to watch for bearish opportunities --- ⚠️ This is not investment advice. SanDisk has risen 58 times from 2354, and now it has pulled back 40%+, with a huge divergence between bulls and bears (analysts target prices from 3050). Betting on direction before the earnings report essentially means betting on the market's answer to the question: "Can AI storage get better?" Control your position size and set stop-losses. #从降息到加息, Fed Divergences Fully Revealed: #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX Close to Close, Circle Closes #Palantir营收增93%, Gains 13% in After-Hours Wet mud pressed against his left cheekbone, and the fluorescent green light in the scope tore the battlefield in two—750 meters away in the target zone, two completely opposite crosswinds were forcibly twisting onto the same trajectory. The observer's hand whispered cold measurement parameters in my ear: the Fed's heavy firepower is still advancing. In July, the ISM Manufacturing PMI surged straight to 55.6, the highest since May 2022, and has remained on the expansion line for seven consecutive months. CME has firmly fixed the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September at 67.2%. Such strong fundamentals should have been a heavy armor-piercing shell, directly pushing returns to high levels. But the biggest taboo at this range is to focus only on a single trajectory. Covert whistleblowers lurking at the front lines of the situation sent back reports, prompting the US and Iran to return to the negotiating table. Crude oil prices suffered a devastating blow in a single day, plunging more than 7%. This sudden geopolitical cooling is like a powerful downward current, instantly blowing away the smoke of inflation. Long-term government bond futures jumped in response, with the 10-year yield pulling 13 ticks and the 30-year bond forming a massive parabolic line of 22 ticks. Bescent also shouted remotely in the tactical band, urging the Fed to inject liquidity into the yen—this is nothing but interference mixed into the radio. Did you see it clearly? The target swayed in an extremely bizarre way from side to side. The fundamentals are pulling the wind to the left, while the geopolitical crisis is pulling the trajectory to the right. The 30-year Treasury yield is stuck near the 5.3% fatal hole, like a steel target trapped between two directions—motionless but filled with intense shear force inside. Now let's look at the prey we focus on—the $XIWM of US stock tokens. As a small-cap chip with an extremely high interest rate sensitivity, it is now firmly stuck in this high-risk turbulent zone. The expectation of rate hikes is a noose around its neck, and the liquidity breathing brought by the oil price crash has added a vulnerable layer to it. Many new recruits who had never fought in combat rushed to pull the trigger at this violent shock, trying to grab tactical rebounds in the gaps between wind speed changes. So foolish. In my crosshairs, there's no absolute profit-loss ratio; it's like deliberately exposing your head to the enemy's crossfire net. Before the airflow stabilized, the smoke outside the cover hadn't cleared, and the 5.3% critical point hadn't provided a definite breakdown signal, all the unusual movements were just feints to lure the enemy deeper. The safety was still engaged, fingers released from the trigger, and he continued to lurk.The longer it moved sideways, the harder it blew out. BTC 63K-64K is repeatedly rubbing, the upper edge of the descending channel is holding steady, the RSI is sliding toward neutral, and the moving averages are also putting pressure on it. If the bulls do not pull back on increased volume, this range will only tighten. ETH has stabilized above 1800, but the RSI is neutral and has no direction. If the trendline above breaks through and the support below is broken, sellers can dump at any time. Both are holding back at key positions; whoever gets out first will follow suit. 👇 What do you think about this game? Comment section: Which one should I go for first? $BTC / $ETH #BTC #ETH #行情分析 At 4 a.m., SpaceX delivered its first report card since going public. To be honest, the numbers aren't bad—they're even impressive. But price tells a completely different story. Let's first look at the core data. Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, a full $1 billion above Wall Street's forecast of $6.81 billion. Net loss of 541 million yuan sounds like a lot, but last year it was 1.008 billion yuan in the same period and 4.28 billion yuan in Q1—losses are narrowing rapidly. The loss per share was only $0.09, while the market expected a loss of $0.23 to $0.28. Adjusted EBITDA reached 3.538 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 191%. This was a surprise from Musk: revenue exceeded expectations, losses were significantly better than expected, and EBITDA surged. But the price was not convinced. An hour before the earnings release, $SPCX had already pulled from 108 during trading to 126. As soon as the release time arrived, it instantly surged to 130.76—an after-hours increase of over 20%. Then, within three minutes, it plunged to 114.34, down 12.6% from its peak. Finally, it consolidated sideways near 116. From 130 to 114, I took a vertical roller coaster. Why are the numbers good but prices crashing? Three reasons, each more deadly than the last. First, AI burning money doubles. This is the most staggering figure in the financial report: AI business capital expenditure in Q2 was $15.828 billion, compared to $7.723 billion in Q1—doubling in total. Annual AI capital expenditure may reach 50 billion yuan or even higher. Although AI revenue is also surging (jumping from 818 million in Q1 to 25 million).In the past couple of days, the Ethereum community has pushed "reducing issuance and letting staking returns fluctuate with staking rates" into the discussion forum. Let's break down the confirmation layer: the widely shared content on X is a new release curve proposal mentioned by Justin Drake, which is still a proposal and discussion. It doesn't mean it's entered Hegotá, nor has mainnet rules changed. Why is this story worth watching? Ethereum's official supply statement splits ETH supply into two lines: validator issuance and EIP-1559 burn; Issuance will change with the amount of staked stake, and staking rewards may only be adjusted after future code upgrades. The Ethereum research community has previously discussed the curve of "gradually reducing issuance when approaching a certain staking ratio," but the curve shape, target ratio, and security budget did not become consensus just because of a single X post. The real disagreement is not simply "reduced issuance = positive news": lower returns may change staking participation, liquid staking, and the supply of DeFi collateral; A steep curve may make it difficult for validators and applications to predict returns. Conversely, excessive issuance also causes unstaked ETH to bear dilution costs. Next, we should look at the proposal text, parameters, client implementation, testnet, and core developer discussions to assess monetary policy, cybersecurity, and application impact respectively. So the more accurate conclusion at present is: this is a proposal of economic parameters worth tracking, not an upgraded product that has already been implemented, nor a price or earnings signal. Before seeing the official EIP, the decision to include in the upgrade, or the mainnet activation evidence, community heat is not treated as an established rule.$CFX shatters your illusions; you are all just retail investors DOGE is the most dangerous thing right now, not that no one is buying it. Rather, the leverage keeps growing, yet prices remain stagnant. I just glanced at DOGE; the price is still hovering around $0.07, barely moving in any decent direction over the past 24 hours, with minimal intraday volatility. Under normal circumstances, a coin moving sideways is not scary. What really warns me is that the DOGE contract market is anything but quiet. Currently, DOGE futures open interest remains about $1.1 billion, with 24-hour contract trading volume exceeding $1.5 billion, and open interest continues to grow; The funding rate also stayed positive, indicating that those who were long continued to pay the short positions. What does that mean? The price hasn't risen much, but the leverage for it to rise in the market is increasing. It's like a car parked in place, but people inside keep pushing in. Everyone thinks that as long as the driver steps on the gas, they can take off with them. But the problem was, the car hadn't moved at all. DOGE has certainly not been without stories recently. DogeOS is advancing the application layer, aiming to bring DeFi, gaming, and AI tools into the Dogecoin ecosystem; The MyDoge wallet is also testing new features. It sounds like DOGE is striving to transform from a pure meme coin into a truly user-friendly chain. But the market now gives a very straightforward answer: The story keeps growing, but the price hasn't won over yet. This is also why I didn't rush to chase long positions and instead wanted to watch for short-selling opportunities. DOGE is quite different from BTC and ETH. BTC can also be viewed by institutional allocation and ETF funds, while ETH can be viewed as stablecoins, RWA, and on-chain revenue. When DOGE truly launches, it often relies not on valuation models, but on sudden ignition of sentiment. When emotions arise, they can rise continuously without reason. But if sentiment doesn't come in for a long time, leveraged bulls become the most vulnerable group. Because they not only have to endure price fluctuations but also continuously pay funding fees. As long as the price remains sideways, their holding costs will gradually increase; If it suddenly drops a bit lower, both the stop-loss order and the liquidation order may appear together. The toughest situation isn't DOGE crashing directly. Instead, it gives bulls a bit of hope every day, making everyone feel "wait a bit longer and it will start," while the price never truly breaks through. When patience runs out, those who leveraged and waited for a rise will start to step on each other. Of course, an increase in open interest does not necessarily mean DOGE will fall; there are both long and short positions. What really needs to be observed is: As the position increases, where exactly will the price break through? If DOGE can break through recent resistance with increased volume, and open interest continues to grow, it means new funds are indeed driving the market, so my caution is unnecessary. But if open interest continues to rise and funding rates remain positive, but prices still fail to rise and even break below the sideways range first, then it is not so-called "accumulation." It was more like a group of people squeezed behind the same door, waiting for the first person to turn and escape. DOGE is not short of people who believe it will rise. What it truly lacks is money willing to push prices up with spot goods. So I didn't chase too long. What I want to see even more is whether this $1.1 billion contract position will ultimately become fuel for the rise, or the gunpowder for the next bullish stamp. $DOGE Guys, is the crypto world so bored you're dozing off with sideways trading? Then look at the US stock leveraged token on OKX—XSOXL (3X Long Semiconductor)—which rose 13.36% in one day with a 16.9% amplitude, more than ten times stimulating BTC. The real S&P (XSPY) only rose +0.38% in 24 hours, with an amplitude of 0.63%, almost dead; But the crypto-driven version is directly escalated into a slaughterhouse. This is the temper of leverage: when it rises, you think you're a genius; when it falls, it squeezes you dry. The data is even more chilling: XSOX plunged from 120.62 to 104.51, with an intraday fluctuation of 16.9%; XSKHY (ARK Innovation ETF) fell 5.72%, XSNDK (3X short Nasdaq) dropped 5.96%—even shorts lost money, leverage hit both sides, and no one can escape. What does this have to do with BTC? BTC itself is only -0.93%, F&G is stuck at 28 (fear zone), playing dead, OI frozen at 111,400 BTC, and no one dares to leverage it. But the collapse of leveraged tokens first shows that native crypto holders have already been passively reducing their leveraged positions. Here's something you can take: use OKX's tokenized stocks (XSOXL/XSNDK/XSKHY) as a "leveraged thermometer." Their collective plunge = even gamblers dare not leverage = risk-off is one of the signals approaching the bottom. Conversely, when they stop falling and increase in volume, they often bottom out half a beat earlier than BTC. I never hold 3x tokens overnight—rate loss + gap gap can uproot you like a chives. I just wanted to enjoy this trade. If you really want to bet on direction, it's better to just open Perpetual Trade, at least stop losses and let you decide. Simply put, during a sideways phase, the most important thing to avoid are leveraged tokens that "look like they can catch up with gains." The anchor (BTC) hasn't moved, the leverage dies first—this is the most realistic scenario of this round. Friends, have you ever touched OKX's US stock leveraged token? Did you make a fortune, or was the rate eating you up? Share your thoughts in the comments—let's see who's bravest here. Tomorrow, I'll keep an eye on whether these leveraged tokens can stop falling; if there are any unusual movements, we'll discuss further. Crypto assets carry high risk. This article does not constitute investment advice and reflects purely personal opinions. $BTC $XSOXL #杠杆代币 #TokenizedStocks #风险偏好 #美股 #行情分析 #OKX星球 #风控 🚨 "Premium" $PI vs. "Bootleg" Pi 🤨 WHO TAUGHT BLOCKCHAIN TO DISCRIMINATE? 🙄🤦 ➢ There's a group of folks spreading a theory: Pi mined with blood and sweat is the "real Pi," while Pi bought on an exchange (even a properly KYB-verified one) is just... plastic Pi. Sounds reasonable enough, until you ask one simple question: which smart contract is doing this sorting for you? ➢ Digging through both the original whitepaper and the MiCA version filed with Europe, searching until your eyes hurt, you won't find a single line saying "Pi Type 1" and "Pi Type 2." All you find is exactly one sentence: Pi carries no ownership rights, is not a security, and has no special privileges beyond functioning as digital currency. 💡 Meaning on the ledger, two Pi sitting side by side one mined last night, one just bought on an exchange 5 minutes ago look exactly the same, spend exactly the same, and nobody can tell them apart... unless they've got some kind of magic eye. 👁️ ➢ Bottom line: blockchain doesn't have an "ethics department" grading which coin deserves more love. It only knows how to add and subtract balances. That whole "mined $PI is sacred" theory is really just a personal opinion about fairness touching, sure, but pasting it onto technology is a bit... off-key. 🎵❌ ➢ So if someone tells you tomorrow "my coin was mined by hand so it has a soul, yours was bought so it's soulless" rest assured, that's not blockchain knowledge, that's spirituality talking 🙏Over the past six years, Strategy's narrative has been highly consistent: buy only, not sell, hold permanently, and treat Bitcoin as the ultimate reserve asset. Michael Saylor's repeated emphasis on "Never Sell Your Bitcoin" has almost become a totem for the entire corporate coin hoarding sector and the belief of retail investors. At the end of May 2026, the company symbolically sold 32 Bitcoins for the first time, followed by 1,363 at the end of June, 2,225 at the beginning of July, and another 1,638 Bitcoins last week. Currently, the media is mainly discussing whether Saylor is "betraying his beliefs" and whether this sale will trigger a Bitcoin crash. Before drawing conclusions, let's clarify the following key questions: 1. Why not sell at the $120,000 high, but only when it reaches around $60,000? Because at that time, there was no need to sell, and it didn't fit their model. At the peak of the bull market: mNAV surges significantly (the market is willing to buy their shares at 2-3 times or even higher). Issuing common and preferred shares is very easy and almost dilutes them. Preferred dividend pressure is not yet as great (scale is still in a rapid expansion phase). The whole flywheel is positive: issuing shares → buying coins → stock price rises → continuing to issue shares. In that environment, selling coins is equivalent to actively shutting down the money printer, which is unnecessary and undermines the narrative premium of "buy only, not sell." What really forced them to start selling was after the flywheel reverse: the coin price pulled back sharply, mNAV fell below 1 (the market no longer gave a premium), and continuing to issue shares to buy coins would severely dilute the existing ones "BTC's Most Expensive 5,000 Points: Unclear Direction, Don't Let Your Account Suffer Yet" August 5, 2026 · Wednesday Third Quarter · Issue 92 Aspirin · Period analysis from the perspective of a data scientist Currently, BTC is near 64.1K, just about $200 above the upward 200-week moving average, while the overhead 20/21-week resistance zone has dropped to 68.6K–68.9K. The upper and lower boundaries are only about 5K apart. A narrow range seems suitable for trading back and forth, but in my view, this market is quite "expensive"—both bulls and bears have their reasons, but neither lacks confirmation signals. If you insist on betting, you might choose the right direction but end up losing money due to poor entry points. --- 1. What makes this 5K expensive? · Buy long at 66.5K: the first resistance above is 68.8K, with a potential of about 3.5%; If the stop loss falls below 63.5K, it would require about a 4.5% pullback. The reward-risk ratio is less than 1, which is not cost-effective. · Shorting directly at 64.2K: uncomfortable because the price has not yet confirmed a break, and below is the 200-week moving average, which means selling near the long-term support level. Even if the bearish direction is ultimately correct, it is very likely that a pullback will first sweep away the stop loss. No need to argue about bull or bear prices; a quick calculation makes it clear—the potential profit in the middle of the range is less than the stop-loss distance, and frequent trading only turns your judgment advantage into fees and slippage. Both weekly lines continue to converge: the 200-week moving average is slowly climbing, while the bear market resistance zone keeps moving downward. The longer the price stays in the middle layer, the more positions for chasing and bottom-fishing will accumulate; Once a boundary is effectively broken, stop-loss orders and catch-up orders will emerge simultaneously, causing volatility to amplify again. --- 2. Which side will August zoom in? In August over the past three mid-year years, BTC fell by about 17.9%, 9.2%, and 13.9%, respectively. There are only three samples, so I won't open a short position just because the calendar flips to August. But I have therefore reduced my position in August. In 2018 and 2022, BTC rose about 21.0% and 16.8% in July, then pulled back in August; In July this year, it only rose about 7.3%, with a thinner safety cushion, and the 69K price has yet to recover. If August loses the long-term moving average, the catch-up decline will be even harder to handle than in July. History hasn't told me to short now, but it reminds me: August shouldn't continue to use July's positions and patience. On the macro level, only one fact remains that affects orders: the July meeting kept rates unchanged by a 9-3 vote, all three opposing votes called for a 25 basis point hike, and no rate cut was included in the official vote. For BTC, whether the Fed will actually raise rates is secondary; the market first trades expectations. A hot CPI, rising 2-year US Treasury yields, and BTC falling below 63.5K — these three pressures will be in the same direction; Conversely, if CPI cools and short-term rates fall, BTC recovers 69.2K again, then the likelihood of a bull breakout would be sufficient. If there is only news without price confirmation, I will not change my position. --- 3. I only keep two reminders Currently, it's about 64.1K, and I won't add any leveraged long positions. Existing long-term spot positions can be gradually DCA; Plan to allocate BTC funds, and only put in the first 10%–15% for 62K–64K, keeping at least half of the cash below 60K. Spot and contract assets are booked separately, and floating losses cannot be reclassified as long-term investment by relying on margin supplementation. · Upward: Close above the daily line at 69.2K, then pull back to 68.6K–69.0K and hold it, then use one-third of the planned position to go long; Stop loss at 66.9K, first target at 72.8K, open position target at 76K. If it surges directly but doesn't trigger a pullback, I won't chase. · Downward: The daily chart at 63.5K closes below, the rebound attempt to 63.7K–64.0K fails, then use a quarter of the planned position as a hedge; Stop loss at 65.2K, targets at 61K and 58.2K. If the index quickly pulls back to 64K after inserting the needle during the session, do not chase the shorts. · Between 63.5K and 69.2K, no new contracts will be opened. This one is actually the most important. I leave two reminders on OKX: 63.5K and 69.2K, and after the reminders sound, I check the daily closing and pullback. Until triggered, the risk budget remains in the account. Accounts don't need to prove my views every day. --- Data Explanation: BTC real-time quotes as of August 4, 2026; The moving average is calculated based on the BTC-USD weekly closing price; Historical monthly returns are calculated based on Bitstamp BTC/USD opening and closing data; The interest rate band and voting are taken from the Federal Reserve's July 29 statement. The above is a personal research and conditional trading plan and does not constitute investment advice. #BTC #从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully revealed AMD has fallen, and many people have started shouting NVDA. On the contrary, I think NVDA is now the truly difficult one to make. Over the past year, whenever the AI sector adjusted, the comment section would almost always say: If you can't afford Nvidia, just buy AMD. Now it seems the situation has reversed. After AMD's earnings report, its stock price plummeted, and many people started saying: NVDA is still the most stable. But I think this kind of thinking might actually be the biggest risk right now. Because the market has already tacitly accepted one thing: As long as AI continues to develop, NVDA will definitely keep rising. Here comes the question. If everyone believes this. So what the market is trading next isn't about "whether there's demand for AI." Instead: Can NVDA continue to exceed everyone's expectations? In recent months, whether it's Microsoft, Meta, or other cloud providers, AI capital spending has continued to rise, which is why many people remain bullish on NVDA. But on the other hand, the market is beginning to show a new shift. More and more people are discussing AI needs. Instead: Who ultimately earns AI's money? AMD is catching up. Intel is chasing. More and more large tech companies are starting to develop their own AI chips. Competition is gradually increasing. Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying NVDA's moat is gone. It remains one of the strongest companies in the AI industry chain. But the stock market can be harsh sometimes. The company can become better and better. But stocks may not be getting easier to do. Because expectations have reached an absolute high level. Recently, there's another phenomenon that I think many people haven't noticed. This year, many AI sector stocks have surged rapidly. But NVDA itself has not had the previous "overwhelming presence," and its performance this year has clearly lagged behind many semiconductor stocks. What does this indicate? This shows that the market is shifting from "only buying Nvidia" to "searching for the next Nvidia." Funding has not left AI. Just beginning to redistribute. So I'm not in a hurry to chase NVDA right now. Not because I think it will crash. It's because I feel: The real danger is not the company weakening. Instead, everyone believes it will never weaken. If the August earnings again far exceed expectations and Blackwell continues to meet demand, NVDA certainly still has the chance to hit new highs. But if the earnings report is just good, not so good that it drives the market crazy, So those who rushed in early are probably the ones who truly need to worry. The hardest money to make in trading. Often, it's the one everyone thinks is the best profit. $NVDA "BTC's Most Expensive 5K: Direction Hasn't Been Announced Yet, Accounts May Be Worn Down First" August 5, 2026 · Wednesday Third Quarter · Issue 92 Aspirin · Period analysis from the perspective of a data scientist BTC is currently around 64.1K, only about $200 above the continuously moving 200-week moving average; The resistance zone on the 20/21-week moving averages has shifted downward to 68.6K—68.9K. The space to decide the next phase's direction is now only about $5,000. Many people instinctively want to trade swings back and forth when they see a narrow range; What I saw was a market with extremely high transaction costs. Bulls have reasons, bears have reasons, but both sides lack price confirmation. At this point, rushing to bet is not a direction judgment error, but rather the account being stopped back and forth before the trend truly unfolds. 1. Why is this 5K considered the most expensive 5K? Assuming a long position at 66.5K, the first resistance is calculated at 68.8K, with a theoretical profit of about 3.5%; If the stop-loss is set below 63.5K, you would need to bear about **4.5%** risk, with a P/P ratio even less than 1. Conversely, the current 64.2K direct short chase is equally uncomfortable. The price has not yet been confirmed to break below the 200-week moving average, which is equivalent to selling above the long-term support. Even if the bearish direction is ultimately correct, it is very likely that a rebound will first wipe out the positions. Here, there's really no need to debate whether it's a bull market or a bear market; just calculate the profit-loss ratio once. Potential gains in the middle of the range are less than the stop-loss distance; Frequent trading essentially means using your judgment advantage to pay fees, slippage, and emotional costs. More importantly, both weekly moving averages are still continually closing down. The 200-week moving average is slowly rising, while the 20/21-week resistance zone continues to decline. Each week the price stays in the middle layer, adding another layer of chasing, bottom-fishing, and stop-loss orders. When a certain boundary is effectively broken, stop-losses and covers are released simultaneously, and true volatility returns. 2. Which side is easier to zoom in on in August? Over the past three mid-term years, BTC fell by approximately 17.9%, 9.2%, and 13.9% in August. There are only three samples, so I won't go short just because the calendar flips to August. But it was enough to make me lower my position. In 2018 and 2022, BTC rose about **21.0%** and 16.8% in July, then clearly pulled back in August; In contrast, it rose only about 7.3% in July this year. The safety pad left by the rebound is noticeably thinner, and the 69K has yet to recover. If August loses the long-term moving average, the decline is more likely to be a catch-up rather than a normal correction. History won't tell me what the next candlestick will do; it just reminds me: entering August, you shouldn't continue using July positions, and even less should you continue to use July's risk appetite. On the macro level, I only keep one fact that truly influences trading decisions: the Fed's July meeting kept rates unchanged 9-3, all three opposing votes supported a 25 basis point hike, and there were no rate cuts in the official vote. For BTC, what the market truly trades is not the policy itself, but the change in expectations. If CPI heats up again, the 2-year US Treasury yield continues to rise, and BTC falls below 63.5K, the pressure on all three stocks will point in the same direction; If CPI falls, short-term interest rates cool down, and BTC stabilizes above 69.2K, a bullish breakout will have higher credibility. News can create volatility, and prices can confirm trends. 3. My trading plan, keeping only two reminders Currently, it's about 64.1K, and I won't add any leveraged long positions. There are already long-term spot traders continuing to execute DCA; Plan to allocate funds to BTC, invest only the first 10%–15% at 62K–64K, keeping at least half the cash for opportunities below 60K. Spot and contract trading must be kept separately; floating losses cannot be reclassified as long-term investments by relying on margin supplementation. **69.2K:** Daily closing holds steady, then pulls back to 68.6K–69.0K and successfully holds, then uses one-third of planned position to follow the breakout; Stop loss at 66.9K, first target at 72.8K, open position target at 76K. If it directly rupts, there will be no pullback, no chasing. **63.5K:** Daily closing price below below, failed to rebound to 63.7K–64.0K, then used a quarter of the planned position for hedging; Stop loss at 65.2K, targets at 61K and 58.2K. If it only inserts a pin during the session and quickly pulls back above 64K, don't chase the shorts. The truly important one sentence is actually just one sentence: Between 63.5K and 69.2K, no new contracts will be opened. I set two price alerts on OKX: 63.5K and 69.2K. Before the reminder sounds, the risk budget remains in the account; After the reminder sounds, observe whether the daily closing and pullback are truly valid. Accounts don't need to prove their opinions every day. A truly great deal isn't about trading every day, but always saving your bullets for the moment with the highest odds. Data Explanation: BTC real-time quotes as of August 4, 2026; The moving average is calculated based on the BTC-USD weekly closing price; Historical monthly returns are calculated based on Bitstamp BTC/USD opening and closing data; The interest rate band and voting are taken from the Federal Reserve's July 29 statement. This article is solely personal research and conditional trading plans and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC $ETH #比特币与纳指相关性大幅下降: Independence or Illusion The CLARITY Act is very likely dead. The Senate is starting its summer recess this week, and the target July voting day has long passed, so 60 votes won't be enough. Bernstein said if the bill fails, crypto valuations will drop again. But I don't think it's that simple—the SEC and CFTC are already using Project Crypto for administrative purposes, and BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP are all classified as digital commodities. Congressional legislation is just icing on the cake; without legislation, executive regulation is also advancing. My conclusion: Don't panic over a bill delay; the real regulatory shift has already happened, just not in the form you expect.AMD's earnings report was a win, but I didn't chase it. Many people waited for AMD's earnings report last night, just waiting for one sentence: As long as it exceeds expectations, the stock price keeps soaring. But after the financial report came out, I actually put away the idea of buying. It's not because AMD's earnings report is bad. On the contrary, this report card is actually quite impressive. Q2 revenue was $11.54 billion, up 50% year-on-year; Adjusted EPS of $1.66 is also higher than market expectations. Data center revenue was $6.7 billion, doubling year-over-year, with Q3 revenue guidance at $13 billion, also exceeding Wall Street expectations. If you only look at the financial report, This should be a standard "positive sign." But here's the problem. With such a strong financial report, why did the stock price fall 7% after hours? That's what I truly care about. Many people like to study companies when doing trades. I prefer to study the market. Because the company tells you how much money it earns. The market tells you: Is this money really worth the current price? AMD has risen too much in the past few months. AI, MI450, Helios, Data Centers, OpenAI, Meta...... These stories have almost been traded in advance by the market. So the real issue yesterday wasn't whether AMD could exceed expectations. Instead: How much more could it exceed expectations? The market is no longer demanding an excellent report card from AMD. Instead, it demands that each quarter be crazier than the last. Revenue grew by 50%. Not enough. EPS exceeded expectations. Not enough. Data centers doubled. Still not enough. At this point, stock trading is no longer about performance. It's about expectations. To put it bluntly. Yesterday, many people bought AMD, not because they trusted Lisa Su. Instead, believe: There will surely be people willing to pay a higher price. That's the real reason I didn't follow it. I have no doubt that AMD will continue to grow in the coming years. What I suspect is: At this position, how many surprises haven't been included in advance? If a company delivers an almost flawless financial report, its stock price still falls first. At least one thing is clear. The market has already started to "see if there is growth." It became "Is the growth crazy enough?" This is the most frightening part of high expectations. It won't drop just because the company deteriorates. It will fall because it's not ridiculously good. So yesterday I didn't chase AMD. Not because I'm bearish on AI. It's because I'm increasingly believing in one saying: The real danger is never poor performance. Rather, everyone believes it will be better. $AMD $SPCX: After a dramatic start in the financial report, unlocking 910 million may become a catalyst for a thorough shakeout #SPCX因星舰发射与解禁引发多空分歧 As soon as SpaceX's first public earnings report was released, the market experienced a rollercoaster ride: it first surged to a high of 130.76, then fell back to around 114.84 amid a chain reaction of AMD's earnings "slightly better than expected = below expectations," with a clear 24-hour fluctuation. The latest price is 114.84, the mark price is 114.83, the EMA 5/10 has crossed below the price, and the MA20 is still holding pressure above 116.71, indicating a weak daily chart. The core contradiction is clear: rapid growth but even faster cash burning. Q2 total capital expenditure was $18.369 billion, with a net loss of $541 million. Despite the rapid expansion, cash expenditure was equally conspicuous. More importantly, about 910 million shares will be unlocked tomorrow, with the scale already surpassing the existing circulating shares, causing the chip structure to deteriorate instantly. The most enthusiastic retail investors were trapped at high levels, combined with potential selling pressure, putting pressure on both liquidity and sentiment. Even if there are highlights on the revenue side, it is difficult to offset short-term supply shocks. Referring to Facebook's initial listing trend: after a high open, the market was shaken out due to unlocks and expectations, stabilizing only when the chips fully rotated. SPCX's current path is similar—around 114 is just a transition, not a bottom. Specific Point Predictions (Daily Perspective): Short-term support: 108-110 (near previous low + psychological threshold). If the daily volume breaks below the previous level, the next target is the 104.36 previous low area. Deep shakeout target: 98-102 (complete turnover range, corresponding to more complete chip clearing). Rebound resistance: 118-120 (MA20 and previous intensive trading zone), effectively breaking through the previously unpredictable trend reversal. Conclusion: After tomorrow's unlock, the trend is expected to continue downward washing. First, see if 108-110 can hold; if not, it will extend below 104 or even 100. Bad chips + trapped at high levels + large unlocks mean this round won't end easily. Light positions, wait until they're cleaned before looking for opportunities. #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Don't expect all altcoins to explode simultaneously—if you're still foolishly waiting for the whole market to turn green, then your disappointment is highly likely to happen. 🧐 Looking at the current custom list, the vast majority of coins are still trading sideways underwater, with only a very few quietly moving beneath the surface. This isn't a season of widespread knockoffs, but a typical capital rotation chess game. 💸 The root of the problem lies in liquidity. There isn't enough incremental capital in the market to drive all the stocks up, so smart funds are being extremely selective about the market. They focus on three things: solid investment logic, genuine liquidity depth, and a model that can be repeatedly verified. As for other projects? Most can only stagnate, with low volume, lack of buyers, and no channels for distribution. 📉 Where the money is actually flowing in: $JTO $JELLY $BTC $OPG $BTCSLX $LAB $BSB $ALLO $CHIP Direction where kinetic energy has already stalled: $BEAT $EDGE $COAI $TRUMP $RAVE $SPACE $SOPH $IP $AVNT $ZAMA $OFC $PIEVERSE $VIRTUAL $ACU $H $MEGA Current key tracking observation: $MEME $EDEN $HUMA $ZKP $METIS Let me share my overall interpretation of the market right now. $BTC is the global master switch; just move the direction and other targets will follow. $ETH is being steadily absorbed, with no flashy rally, but the intention to build positions at the bottom is clear. $SOL is the high-beta choice within the L1 sector. $TAO and $WLD dominate the AI narrative. $HYPE directly reflects market risk appetite. As for $DOGE and $ZEC, they remain the most sensitive thermometers for measuring retail investor sentiment and off-exchange capital inflows. 📊 The most profound lesson from this cycle is: truly valuable actions always happen before KOLs start promoting on a large scale. When your timeline is covered with red charts and "Fully Stocked!" Now! "By the time you post like this, you're already standing guard on the mountaintop. ⏰ So my strategy is extremely simple: keep up with the flow of funds, keep an eye on the trend turning point, and filter out the noise. Let the price provide proof first, then you decide whether to place your bet. 🎯 NFA. DYOR.$ASTS SpaceMobile closed today up 10.69% at $70.31, a sharp single-day move that's tempting to read as company-specific momentum. The more accurate read is more nuanced — and understanding the difference matters for anyone trying to position around it. Today's move was a sector-wide sympathy rally, not an ASTS-specific catalyst. Space stocks broadly rallied ahead of SpaceX's first-ever public earnings report as a listed company: SpaceX gained 4%, ASTS rose 9% intraday (closing near 10.7%), and #亚马逊市值破3万亿, a 50 billion bet to win the first round Amazon's market value surpasses $3 trillion: Will the AI cloud computing craze become the catalyst for BTC's next rally? Recently, Amazon's market value surpassed the $3 trillion mark, making it one of the few tech giants worldwide to reach this scale. The core driver of this rally is not traditional e-commerce business, but the market's repricing of the value of AWS cloud computing and AI infrastructure. Amazon's latest financial report shows that AWS's business growth is accelerating significantly, and AI-related demand is becoming a key driver of the company's growth. Many investors have begun to ponder a question: Is the AI wave a true industrial revolution, or just another capital stunt? From the current situation, AI is gradually moving from "storytelling" to the "realization stage." In the past, the AI market focused more on models, chips, and concepts. But now capital is starting to look for truly profitable businesses. NVIDIA provides computing power, Microsoft and Google are laying out models, and Amazon uses AWS to control the key entry point for enterprise AI applications. In short: Without cloud computing, AI is difficult to commercialize on a large scale. A large number of enterprises need robust cloud infrastructure to train models and run AI applications. Therefore, AWS growth not only represents Amazon's own value enhancement but also indicates that the market is confirming a trend: AI demand is moving from the experimental phase to the enterprise application stage. What impact does this have on the crypto world? It's actually very obvious. In the past, BTC rallies mainly relied on internal capital in the crypto market, but now Bitcoin is increasingly influenced by Wall Street's risk appetite. The logic of market funds is changing: AI technology stocks rose ↓ Investors' risk appetite has increased ↓ Institutions seek higher-yield assets ↓ BTC and ETH attracted capital attention Therefore, the rise of tech giants like Amazon, Nvidia, and Microsoft is not just about the US stock market; it reflects whether global capital is willing to continue embracing risk assets. However, traders also need to see the other side. Surpassing a $3 trillion market cap does not mean Amazon is without risks. Currently, AI investment scales are enormous, with tech companies continuously increasing their data center investments. If the pace of AI commercialization falls short of market expectations, or if corporate capital expenditure returns are insufficient, tech stocks may undergo valuation adjustments. The biggest risk in the market is not that AI has no value, but rather: Excellent industries can also cause losses if bought at excessively high prices. The same applies to BTC. If US tech stocks continue to rise, dollar liquidity improves, and ETF funds continue to flow in, BTC may benefit from this round of "technology + liquidity" rally. However, if the AI sector experiences large-scale profit-taking and Nasdaq adjusts, it could also drag down crypto market sentiment in the short term. Currently, traders are focusing on three signals: First, whether tech giants' AI capital expenditures continue to expand; Second, whether U.S. Treasury yields continue their downward trend; Third, whether BTC spot ETF funds continue to flow in. Looking at the longer cycle, the signals from Amazon's $3 trillion break are: Wall Street is betting on the next generation of productivity revolution. For the crypto world, the real question isn't whether Amazon will rise, but rather: After tech stocks create new wealth effects, will the next batch of high-growth assets sought by capital include BTC? The future market may not simply repeat past bull-bear cycles, but rather enter a new phase driven by AI, liquidity, and institutional capital. For traders, what truly matters is not the hot topic itself, but the direction of funds behind it. Because the market always rewards those who understand the flow of capital.Institutional money is still showing up, even while retail sits on the sidelines. That's the signal I'm watching. Bitcoin continues to hold around key levels as spot ETF demand remains resilient, even with weaker retail participation. At the same time, U.S. lawmakers are still pushing toward a possible vote on the CLARITY Act before the congressional recess, keeping regulation firmly in the market's spotlight. This matters because crypto performs best when liquidity and regulatory clarity improve together. Institutions are focused on long-term exposure, while traders are waiting for stronger confirmation before deploying fresh capital. That balance could shape the next major move across the market. My view is simple: patience is becoming more valuable than chasing every candle. If institutional demand keeps absorbing supply and policy uncertainty starts to fade, confidence can gradually spread beyond the largest assets into the broader market. That doesn't guarantee an immediate rally, but it does improve the quality of the market structure. I'm closely watching $BTC $ETH $SOL $XRP $BNB $DOGE $ADA $SUI $LINK $AVAX $AAVE $UNI $ARB $OP $LDO as liquidity and sentiment evolve. Stay disciplined, respect risk, and keep your eyes on the news before the charts. The strongest opportunities often appear when the market is paying attention to fundamentals instead of emotions.📊 August 4th Market Review: BTC Surged Overnight, What Are You Really Trading? Let's look at the market first: on the 1-hour chart, BTC surged to a high of 64,050. This rebound is essentially the result of "US stock market sentiment recovery + market capital resonance." But breaking down the candlestick reveals that the logic is far more complex than just a single bullish candlestick. 🇺🇸 First logic: Nasdaq rebounds strongly, technology stocks ignite risk appetite Overnight, U.S. tech sectors surged collectively, with the Nasdaq rising over 2%, and Microsoft's earnings report beating expectations acting as a direct catalyst. Market risk appetite has rapidly rebounded, and Bitcoin, as a highly volatile risk asset, naturally rose in tandem. Note a key detail: BTC's rally coincides with the timing window during the US stock trading session, indicating that external pricing logic dominates in the short term. 🔍 Second logic: U.S. stocks are the trigger, but not the only reason Before the US stock market surges Two hours ago, the debate was whether the 64K could hold steadily. Now, we have an incomplete answer: pullback long positions can push the break-even position, but the volume after the breakout hasn't kept up. Pocky sees the 64K–64.14K range as a zone where buying should re-enter; His 1-minute level $BTC long has pushed the stop-loss to break-even with a target of 64.7K. This indicates that bulls still hold support in the ultra-short term, but have not turned above 64K into a stable trend. Another trader tried again with a $ETH long position, exiting if the 1-hour close fell below 1860, but the identity could not be confirmed, so no name was named this round. Overall judgment: This round is not a "breakout confirmation," but rather "bulls have profits but no volume increase." $BTC If volume increases and it holds above 64.7K, it will be considered a continuation; If it falls back below 64K, the trigger of intensive break-even stops could amplify the pullback. Anonymous $ZRO Many price limits, $ONDO push for break-even and POLY airdrop valuations lack reliable identities or official catalysts, so opportunities are not listed. Will you wait for volume to follow, or treat 64K as a failure limit? These are for the purposes of opinion and information compilation only and do not constitute investment advice ETH's biggest danger right now isn't a drop. Rather, everyone is waiting for it to catch up. Recently, looking at the comment section, I almost see one sentence every day: After BTC has risen, it's now ETH's turn. Sounds reasonable. But there was a problem in the deal. The logic everyone knows is often the hardest to make money. BTC has been supported by ETF funds recently, and the story of institutional allocation has not ended. What about ETH? The market has been talking about ETFs, RWAs, stablecoins, and on-chain ecosystems. These stories are not wrong. The problem is, these stories have been told for a long time. If an asset is really about to start a major upward trend, the most important thing isn't whether the story is good enough. It's about whether new capital is willing to keep driving up prices. I've been watching ETH ETF data lately. There has indeed been no panic withdrawal, and some products have maintained net inflows in recent weeks. But that actually made me more cautious. Because ETF inflows represent allocation needs, not short-term price increases. Many studies have found that ETF capital flows are more about confirming trends than creating them. What does that mean? Money is slowly moving in. However, the price did not break out of a rally that would make all bears surrender. At times like this, I actually don't rush to chase after them. Because the real danger isn't ETH dropping 5%. Rather, everyone feels: "Anyway, there will be a catch-up sooner or later." One of the most common ways to lose money in trading is: The direction is right, and time must be on their side. But the market never immediately rises just because everyone thinks it should rise. If BTC continues to move sideways and ETH still fails to break out of its independent rally, then the first to collapse won't be the trend. It's about patience. Many people will start to doubt. will start reducing positions. will begin to pay off. So now I haven't heavily invested in ETH. Not because I'm bearish on ETH. It's because I feel that the market is no longer trading based on fundamentals. It's about expectations. While everyone was waiting for ETH to catch up. What truly deserves caution is: What happens if it doesn't catch up on the rise? Many times. The market doesn't die from bad news. It died because everyone believed it would definitely rise. $ETH # Practical Tips on Mapping US Stock Contracts Doing US stock contracts is completely different from the mainstream cryptocurrencies in the crypto world. Pre-market and closing periods have extremely poor liquidity, and shakeout is common. Here's a summary of some practical pitfalls: 1. Firmly maintain small positions and low leverage, and avoid going all-in on heavy positions The biggest advantage of small leverage is its high margin for error, allowing you to appropriately relax the stop-loss range. US stock contracts are extremely volatile, and high leverage cannot withstand spikes and shakeouts. No need to chase overnight profits; small positions can steadily capture a wave of trending market trends, accumulating to big profits. Steadiness is king. 2. Only one order is left for stocks in the same track, eliminating cross-margin trading and the same direction Micron, SanDisk, and SK Hynix all belong to the AI storage computing power sector, with strong synergy that easily rises and falls together. At the same time, opening more positions means that if sector sentiment reverses and funds collectively flee, it could easily wipe out the entire market. - Micron: Mild volatility, stable movement, suitable for steady trading - SanDisk/Hynix: Maximum elasticity, sharp price swings, frequent stop-loss sweeps 3. A review of SPCX (Rocket) live trading cases: the harsh reality of high leverage Looking at the attached chart, the SPCX Rockets' 15-minute candlestick was originally trading sideways near 125, then suddenly surged to 130.76, followed by a liquidity gap, plunging sharply to a low of 114.34. This kind of rapid V-shaped oscillation, with high-leverage accounts without setting take-profit or stop-loss settings, directly triggers a double kill between long and short. With 75x leverage, the price fluctuated by just $0.8 and immediately triggered liquidation. Such extreme rallies often occur during the close of US stocks. High leverage leaves almost no room for error; a single large candlestick can wipe out your account regardless of whether you go long or short. Even if the overall direction is right, a sharp pullback in the middle can lead to a direct exit. 4. Do not predict tops, bottoms, or carry orders; conditional orders must be posted in advance The pulse of US stocks was driven entirely by sentiment and news, with positive news soaring and negative news falling without limit. Reject subjective prediction, set up take-profit and stop-loss conditions in advance, and never bear floating losses. Personal live trading review record, for communication only, does not constitute any investment advice SPCX's earnings clearly exceeded expectations, but after the market closed, it crashed directly. Today's SpaceX financial report actually doesn't look bad just by looking at the numbers. Q2 revenue reached $7.8 billion, a 92% year-on-year increase, significantly exceeding market expectations; The loss per share was only $0.09, better than the market's original expectation of a loss of $0.23. Starlink users grew to about 12 million, connectivity revenue reached $4.3 billion, and AI revenue surged to about $2.6 billion. Logically, with such a report card, the stock price should continue to celebrate. After all, the SPCX had already risen more than 9% during the day, closing near $125, clearly betting early on earnings reports that would exceed expectations. But after the earnings came out, the price plunged from around $125 to around $116 in after-hours trading, dropping nearly 7% at one point. What does that mean? Revenue exceeded expectations, losses were smaller than anticipated, yet the stock price spitted back the day's gains all at once. This shows that the market isn't complaining that SpaceX isn't making enough tonight, but suddenly realizing: the speed at which it spends money may be even more alarming than its revenue growth. SpaceX's total capital expenditure this quarter exceeded $18 billion, with about $15.8 billion allocated to AI infrastructure, significantly exceeding market expectations. The company earned $7.8 billion in revenue in one quarter, yet burned through capital expenditures that would have been more than twice its revenue. To put it bluntly, SpaceX is no longer just telling rockets and satellites. Starship is burning money, Starlink is about continuing to build satellites, xAI is buying GPUs and building data centers, and Musk is still talking about orbital data centers, lunar factories, and even bigger AI computing plans. Each story is bigger and bigger than the last. But behind every story comes a huge bill. During the day, the market buys on "revenue surges of 92%," and after closing it calculates: how much money will it take to burn this income to recoup it? What's even more troublesome is that behind the financial report lies a more practical question. On August 6, about 910 million shares held by SpaceX's first employees and early investors will be unlocked. Being able to sell doesn't necessarily mean selling, but the scale of this batch of potential circulating tokens far exceeds the normal trading volume currently used to in the market. This is the most subtle aspect of tonight's market. The financial report is already good enough, but the stock price still can't rise; Tomorrow, there will be another massive volume of potential selling positions waiting to enter the market. Those who chased earlier were betting on "earnings beating expectations and continuing to rise." Now that the earnings report has indeed exceeded expectations, yet the stock price has reversed, these funds will start to suspect: If it can't even drive such strong numbers, what kind of positive news is needed to drive it up? So now, I actually won't rush to buy this after-hours drop. Truly strong stocks, even if they get slashed after earnings reports, will quickly find support; the lower the price, the more aggressive the buying. But if the rebound weakens after tomorrow's market opens, with sellers selling every time it pulls up, combined with unlocking pressure, then tonight's large post-market bearish candlestick is not just a mood swing, but the market may start repricing SpaceX. SpaceX is, of course, a very strong company. Starlink is making money, revenue growth is real, and the possibilities for rockets and AI are equally enormous. But the problem is, the market never asks just whether a company is great enough. It also asks: With such a great future, how much more money will it burn? It rose 9% during the day but fell nearly 7% after hours. The biggest blow to SPCX today wasn't the poor earnings. But even though the financial report is already very good, the price still refuses to buy in. $SPCX 多空拥挤榜费率极端只是警报，价仓响应才决定拥挤有没有继续发酵。 $HOME 当前费率-0.2600%，过去24小时已结-4.572%，处于最近样本的8%分位。 15分钟下跌减仓，当前最明确的是仓位退出和去杠杆。 OI在收缩，行情的核心是仓位退出；费率偏向不等于已经确认退出方。 $SNDK 当前费率-0.0498%，过去24小时已结-0.076%，处于最近样本的3%分位。 15分钟下跌增仓，说明这段下压有新增仓位参与。负费率处在低位，价仓仍向下，弱势与拥挤并存，后面重点防止跌。 $SKHYNIX 当前费率-0.0278%，过去24小时已结+0.101%，处于最近样本的17%分位。 15分钟价格回落而OI增加，行情压力没有随着跌幅释放。当前费率与过去24小时已结方向相反，仓位成本正在换边；接下来要看OI是否跟着扩张。#ISM创四年新高, U.S. Treasury yields have reversed ISM manufacturing data beats expectations, US Treasury yields fall, BTC ushers in a new liquidity window? Recently, U.S. ISM manufacturing data has become a market focus. Data shows that U.S. manufacturing activity continues to expand, with the July ISM Manufacturing Index rising to 55.6, exceeding market expectations and reaching a higher level in recent years. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields retreated, and risk asset sentiment improved significantly. On the surface, this seems like a contradictory signal: Why have U.S. Treasury yields fallen despite the strengthening of U.S. economic data? Logically, the stronger the economy, the less the Fed needs to cut rates, and Treasury yields should rise. But the current focus of market trading is not simply on "whether the economy is doing well," but on paying attention to future policy paths. The market is betting on one possibility: The economy remains resilient, but inflationary pressures are gradually easing, and the Fed still has room to cut rates in the future. This is a relatively ideal environment for risk assets. Over the past year, a key driver of US stock gains has been "no recession + improved liquidity expectations." Especially AI technology stocks, as companies continue to increase capital investment, companies like Nvidia, Amazon, and Palantir continue to attract capital attention. This logic is also influencing the crypto world. BTC is no longer just a simple crypto market asset, but part of the global liquidity market. A simple explanation: U.S. Treasury yields declined ↓ Pressure on dollar funding eased ↓ Institutional risk appetite is rising ↓ Funds seek high-yield assets ↓ BTC and ETH have attracted attention Therefore, BTC has not been dragged down by the Coldcard incident recently, essentially because market attention is shifting from "security events" to "macro liquidity." However, strong ISM data also carries another risk. If the U.S. economy continues to overheat, especially if inflation rebounds again, the Fed may delay rate cut expectations, which could lead to a resurgence in U.S. Treasury yields and risk assets under renewed pressure. For crypto traders, three key indicators currently need to be monitored: First, the trend of U.S. Treasury yields. Yields continue to fall, making BTC and tech stocks more friendly. Second, the performance of U.S. tech stocks. If the AI sector continues to be strong, it indicates that market risk appetite still exists. Third, BTC capital flows. Whether ETF funds continue to flow in will determine whether the rally is sustained. From a trading perspective, the market is currently forming an important contest: Bulls believe: Economic soft landing + improved liquidity = a new round of risk asset rally. Bears worry: Overheating of the economy + fluctuating inflation = Fed tightening again. Therefore, the message that ISM manufacturing data truly conveys is not just "whether the U.S. economy is strong," but the market is looking for an answer: Can the U.S. enter a rate-cutting cycle without recession? If the answer is yes, then BTC may be entering a better funding environment; If inflation heats up again, the market may still experience volatility. For traders, the most important thing now is not to chase the rally, but to wait for further confirmation of the capital's direction. Because in the next market cycle, the competition will not be about news speed, but about who can understand where global capital is flowing.ETH's short-term window shows a clear bullish bias, so it cannot be directly turned into a capital direction This round of ETH numbers has a sense of direction, but I care more about sample size. On August 5th at 03:00 (China time), OKX Onchain OS recorded 18 mentions in one hour, with 39% positive and 17% bearish, showing a discussion speed about 0.82 times the 24-hour average. A few concentrated reposts can clearly rewrite the ratio, so "slightly bullish with obvious advantage" only describes this batch of texts and cannot equate to how much capital is betting on the same direction. Regarding sources, X 14 times and news 4 times, pay attention to whether the same piece of news is being repeated and spread repeatedly. Next, see if the tone can be maintained after sample expansion, then cross-confirm with transaction volume, funding rate, and on-chain activity, which is more reliable than chasing a single percentage.Recently, the performance in the crypto and US stock markets has been like fire and ice. Let's start with US stocks. In early August, they hit a new all-time high, with the S&P 500 surging to 7,756 points, and both the Dow and Nasdaq hitting new highs. The AI wave is sweeping so fiercely that Nvidia, TSMC, and Broadcom all surged, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index soaring nearly 4% in a single day. Looking back at the second quarter, the S&P 500 rose 14.9%, and the Nasdaq soared 21.4%, marking its best quarterly performance since 2020. Although there were several corrections in June and July, once the AI leaders' earnings came out during earnings season, capital rushed in, pushing the index to the sky. Looking at the crypto world, the atmosphere is completely different. Bitcoin is currently hovering around $65,000, rising 11.5% in July, but once August arrived, the entire market became tense. Why? Because historically, August has been Bitcoin's worst month of the year, with a median decline close to 8%. More importantly, institutional funds are retreating—$BTC spot ETFs saw weekly net inflows plunge from $197 million in mid-July to $33.79 million by the end of July, a drop of over 80%. Although whales are quietly increasing their positions, long-term holders are slowing down, forming a "head and shoulders" bearish pattern on the technical side. If it breaks below the $61,000 support level, the price below could be directly seen as $54,000 or even $41,000. Simply put, the US stock market is now backed by "AI faith," with institutional funds pouring in; In the crypto world, the 'seasonal curse' combined with a retreat of funds has pushed the bullish and bearish battles to a fever pitch. One hits a new high, the other is preventing a breakout; in the short term, the risk-reward ratios between these two assets are not just a small difference. If you are a steady player, the momentum of US stocks is indeed more stable now; But the crypto world's high volatility has always been a game for the bold—just in August, you probably need to be mentally prepared for a "beating."Guys, I finally understand the most absurd scene in this market—US stock ETFs are vacationing in Hawaii, while crypto retail investors are keeping vigil in the morgue. The data is clear: XSPY (S&P 500 token) only rose 0.38% in 24 hours, with intraday volatility of just 0.63%, basically sleeping; In contrast, BTC's F&G is stuck at 28 (fear), with volume down 31.3%, looking like it's desperate. Capital flows are even more confirmed: OI frozen at 111,400 BTC without moving at all, indicating no one dares to leverage and gamble on direction; Guang 6 rose 9 and fell 9; the clones group by retail investors are still bleeding, and ETH is also a notch weak. Both are moving sideways, so why is one steady and the other shaky? The core is "who is setting the price"—XSPY is institutional pricing, and institutions only look at valuation and liquidity; BTC and altcoins are priced by retail investors; retail investors watch F&G and group calls to buy orders, and when sentiment collapses, they shrink volume and play dead. Here's something you can take: during sideways trading, don't focus on price—focus on 'pricing power.' Institutional chips (US ETFs, Coinbase premium) serve as anchors, while retail investor sentiment (F&G, breadth) is the noise. If the anchor won't move, don't let the noise throw you off the car. A couple of days ago, I was itching to open ADA long and KAITO short, and now the floating losses are still in the green—but I didn't cut off. The logic is simple: the anchor (XSPY stable, premium negative but not crashed) hasn't moved. At this point, selling at a loss is to dump chips cheaply into institutions, with contrarian indicators confirming this. Simply put, the most expensive thing about sideways trading is emotion. Retail investors are keeping vigil, institutions are on vacation, and who you follow determines whether you lose money or just make less profit this round. Don't believe the nonsense that "shrinking volume sideways = immediate market change"—if institutions don't recover, the waters will remain calm for a long time. Friends, during a sideways phase, are you the ones who cut losses and exited, or the ones who come back from lying flat with equal institutions? Vote for one in the comments—let's see who can't resist first. Tomorrow, I'll keep an eye on whether Coinbase's premium signals are positive; if there are any movements, I'll discuss further. Crypto assets carry high risk. This article does not constitute investment advice and reflects purely personal opinions. #BTC #ETH #XSPY #横盘 #缩量 #散户情绪 #机构定价 #行情分析 #OKX星球 #风控

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