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The 64K held two hours ago has already pushed $BTC back to the lower resistance level; But this rebound has hit the area most favored by the previous bears.
Chen Ge shifted from cashing short positions to waiting for a pullback of 63.5–63.8K to go long, with a failure rate of 62.7K; WWG still sees 64.8–65.2K as major resistance, believing that spot and perpetual buying must persist for a breakout. Osbrah leans more toward buyers still controlling the structure, but before the nonfarm payroll season, they chose to wait, only weakening after four hours to recover below the range control point.
OKX spot prices have returned to the lower edge of this resistance, and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics calendar also confirms that the nonfarm payroll release will be released tomorrow night Beijing time. Overall judgment: This is "support rebound entering resistance," not a breakout; Only after holding firm and pulling back to hold will it be considered continuous; only after resistance and breaking below the control point within four hours will the retracement be reconsidered. Will you wait for a breakout and pullback, or reduce positions before resistance?
$BOT Profit-taking has been taken and broken even has been promoted; $UB Small coins have only technical signals, no official catalyst, so no opportunity is listed in this round.
These are for the purposes of opinion and information compilation only and do not constitute investment adviceRetail investors are running around, institutions are running, only a group of people are buying aggressively
Last week, in this game of the US stock market, people at three tables made completely opposite moves.
Hedge funds made a net purchase of $4.8 billion, the second largest single-week purchase since 2008. In the same week, institutional investors net sold $3.8 billion, breaking the previous four-week streak of buying trends. Retail investors were also slightly reducing holdings, with a net sale of $200 million. Data from The Kobeissi Letter, based on the proportion of total market capitalization in the S&P 500, hedge funds ranked 24th all-time.
One side charges forward, the other side retreats outward. This kind of tearing is much more interesting than a simple rise or fall.
First, you need to distinguish between these three groups of people and their money personalities. Hedge funds are quick money; they focus on position turnover. It's not unusual to hold heavily today and clear tomorrow, and many even use leverage. Institutional investors are more allocation accounts, like pensions and mutual funds. Each portfolio adjustment requires meetings and procedures; slow moves but steady direction. Retail investors have it even simpler: they dare to add when prices rise and exit when they fall.
So what's truly worth pondering is that slow money is decreasing, while fast money is surging. Slow money reducing positions usually means valuations are no longer cheap, while fast money surges are often betting on a short-term window. These two events happening simultaneously roughly translate as: this rally isn't driven up by bottom positions, but by a batch of money that can turn around at any time.
Coincidentally, on the same day, JPMorgan CEO Dimon said on CNBC that market margin debt had reached historic highs, and some borrowings were not even counted as margin debt, hidden in primary brokers, hedge funds, ETFs, and Treasury arbitrage strategies. He himself admitted that leverage was very high but said this did not yet pose a systemic threat. Warning with one hand, calming with the other—think about it.
On the crypto side, it's actually the same hand. Arkham monitored that BlackRock's IBIT has been buying every day this week, with a total of about $478.5 million worth of BTC, making it look like institutions are increasing their holdings. But CryptoQuant data shows that institutional BTC holdings—including trusts, ETFs, and closed-end funds—dropped from 1.33 million to 1.2 million over three months, a decrease of 130,000. Money is being exchanged between institutions, not new money entering the market.
The market also confirms this. BTC is still grinding between 6.4 and 65,000, with the 200-week moving average of 63,657—the average cost line for buyers over the past four years—just rising above and volume not following; Coinbase Premium Index has been negative for 80 consecutive days, with the latest at -0.0978, setting the longest losing streak since this indicator was recorded. US domestic spot buying has yet to catch up; the price is still supported by the small amount of in-market stock trading among each other.
So when looking at capital flow, don't just focus on the net inflow—it's the result of all participants' net decisions, which includes new money, old warehouse moves, and passive sell orders. The only real question is one: is this buy made by slow money or by quick money that can be withdrawn at any time?
How long do you think this round of support money can last?The 9.1 share unlock turned out to be far less bearish than many expected.
Many traders anticipated heavy selling pressure, yet $SPCX never experienced the major collapse that some had feared. The intraday low was around 115.3, remarkably close to the 115 support zone that many were watching.
So why didn't the stock fall harder?
One possibility is that many eligible shareholders simply chose not to sell. A lockup expiration only allows insiders to sell—it does not mean they are required to. If employees, early investors, or long-term holders remain confident in the company's outlook, they may decide to keep their positions.
It's also worth remembering that the earnings reaction and the lockup are two separate events. The post-earnings volatility was driven largely by the market's interpretation of the results and management commentary, while the lockup expiration appears to have had a much smaller immediate impact than expected.
Key Takeaways
✅ Lockup expirations do not automatically trigger sharp declines.
✅ Market demand can absorb newly tradable shares if buyers remain active.
✅ Investor sentiment and company fundamentals often matter more than the unlock event itself.
As for the strong defense around key price levels, it's difficult to conclude that there was any intervention. Strong support can emerge naturally from institutional buying, algorithmic trading, short covering, or investors viewing the pullback as a buying opportunity. Without evidence, it's not possible to attribute the price action to market intervention.
The lesson is simple: a token or stock unlock is a risk factor—not a guarantee of a sell-off. The market ultimately decides whether new supply overwhelms demand.Ethereum Open Interest Surpasses $47.1 Billion: No Signs of Overheating Healthy Capital Inflows?
Ethereum's price has shown a stable trend near $1,907, while Binance's open interest Z-score (30-day rollover) recorded 0.43, steadily holding above the 30-day moving average.
Open Interest Z-Score: Measures the degree of deviation from the average level of futures open interest, used to assess market overheating and risk of sharp liquidation.
Stability of capital supply and demand: Total open interest ($47.1 billion) is higher than the 30-day moving average ($46.2 billion), but the Z-score of 0.43 is very stable compared to the overheated zone (Z-score above 2~3).
Non-speculative actual demand: not driven by aggressive leveraged confrontation triggered by long/short one-sided bias, but a gradual and balanced portfolio construction process.
Future Upward Momentum: If price increases coincide with an increase in open interest, it can be interpreted as new cash capital inflows supporting a sustainable true bull market.
Currently, the Ethereum futures market is in a phase of healthy energy accumulation, free from the risk of overheating or large-scale chain liquidations.Everyone quotes 99% vs 1%.
The data shows 70% vs 4.6%.
$UNI vs $HYPE 👇
• Fee share of the arrival token (30 days)
→ HYPE 70.0%
→ UNI 4.6%
• Buybacks (July)
→ HYPE $38.42m
→ UNI $4.38m
• Buybacks (cumulative)
→ HYPE $1.19b
→ UNI $29.15m
• FDV / annualized revenue
→ HYPE 134x
→ UNI 65x
Still overwhelmingly superior in capture. Still paying double the price for it.$BTC After opening this order,
My heartbeat never slowed down
Entered long position at 63574
100x leverage: 0.1 BTC
Deposit is 360U
Current price 64,746, floating profit 117U
Increase of 184%
The book is profitable
But I couldn't laugh at all
This morning, ETH took 142U of cash
In the afternoon, BEAT slashed the 151U
I spent the whole day on the roller coaster without getting off
This BTC is the heaviest card in hand
If you play well, you can turn the tide today
If you don't do it well, it's like rubbing salt into the wound
The Forced Flat is at 60,250
A 7% buffer from the current price of $4,500
7% leverage at 100x is not a major crash
It might just be a normal needle insertion at night
Or a wave of panic stamping when it falls below 64,000
360U margin plus 117U profit
All squeezed into this narrow gap
The 1-hour chart has already encountered resistance at 65,026
MACD just formed a death cross, with green bars emerging
The pullback pressure is considerable
Immediately push the stop loss to between 63,600 and 63,800
Withdraw when triggered, leave with forty or fifty U
If you hold on, keep taking it
It must never be like the afternoon BEAT
Slowly sliding from floating to deep abyss
$ZBT Nearly 70 points tonight
Transaction volume exceeds 100 million, with funds actively working out
But after 11 a.m., these coins are being pushed up vertically
If you chase it in, you're most likely to get stuck at the top
Place a limit order between 0.14 and 0.15
If you don't get backlash, just pretend you didn't see it
$SPCX Severe tremors between 105 and 115
US stocks without direction
Today, I have neither the energy nor the mood to gamble
Not touching
Today's mental exhaustion was already quite high
Do one thing before bed
Set your BTC stop-loss properly
The account is still in place, and the principal is still there
There are still new candlesticks to watch tomorrow
That's all for tonight[BTC holds steady at 64,000, SanDisk's explosive earnings report but faces "valuation cuts," storage sector plunges across the board]
Guys, BTC has stabilized above $64,000, and ETH has also climbed above 1900. But today's real market focus is not on the overall market, but on SanDisk.
SanDisk's financial report: revenue surged 372%, but the market was not buying it
SanDisk's Q4 financial report was explosive—revenue was $8.97 billion, up 372% year-on-year and 51% quarter-on-quarter, far exceeding the market expectation of $8.39 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $39.25, also well above expectations. Gross margin was 84.6%, and net profit was $6.903 billion.
But the market's reaction was: after hours, it plunged nearly 8% at one point, and continued to fall more than 10% before the market opened.
Why? Because guidance falls short of expectations. SanDisk's revenue guidance for the next fiscal quarter is $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, with a median of $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. Citi lowered its target price from $2,500 to $2,100. The market is beginning to reassess whether AI infrastructure investments can sustain the previously rapid growth of the memory chip industry.
The storage sector plunged across the board
Dragged down by SanDisk, memory chip stocks plunged collectively in pre-market trading—Western Digital fell over 13% to 19%, SanDisk nearly 9% to 12%, SK Hynix dropped over 6% to 8%, and Micron Technology dropped over 3% to 6%. Demand for AI storage is still expanding, but market expectations for the future have become increasingly stringent.
On the broader market: BTC held steady at 64,000, and ETFs saw consecutive net inflows
BTC opened at $64,602 on Thursday, up 0.9% from the previous day. Affected by the US-Iran ceasefire and expectations for navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices have dropped sharply, inflation concerns have eased, and risk appetite has improved.
In terms of ETFs, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for the third consecutive trading day, with a net inflow of $244 million yesterday. BlackRock IBIT accumulated Bitcoin purchases worth approximately $478.5 million this week. On the 7th, there was a net inflow of 9,034 BTC, valued at $582 million.
Today's focus: Initial jobless claims data
Tonight, the U.S. will release initial jobless claims data, with the previous value at 197,000 and the expected 201,000. ADP employment data has weakened significantly; if initial demand continues to rise, rate cut expectations will heat up further.
Summary:
SanDisk's financial report itself was explosive, but the guidance fell short of expectations + previous gains were too large + valuations were overdrawn, causing the market to choose to "cut valuations." The storage sector is under short-term pressure, and the medium- to long-term logic for AI storage demand remains, but market expectations are already too high. BTC remains steady above 64,000, and continuous net ETF inflows are positive signals. Tonight's initial jobless claims data and tomorrow's non-farm payrolls are the real highlights of the week.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK $WDC $MU $SKHY
#BTC #ETH #SNDK #闪迪 #存储芯片 #财报季 #非农数据 #合约交易Looks like this morning's view is playing out.
$SPCX 's rally turned out to be a classic bull trap, drawing in late buyers before reversing sharply. Price has now fallen back to 110, wiping out the gains from the past few days.
I entered at 110, watched it rally to 130, and now it's right back where it started.
The first token unlock begins at 9:30 PM, and market nerves are clearly building. That said, the largest unlock doesn't mean all 910 million tokens will be sold immediately.
However, if even 100–200 million tokens hit the market around current prices, a move toward the 100–105 range wouldn't be surprising.
Fear often attracts bottom buyers, but with multiple unlocks scheduled throughout August and September, supply pressure could continue to weigh on price.
Stay patient, manage risk, and watch how the market absorbs the unlocks.
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch $ADA This rally could drive $XRP
A comprehensive overview of the correlation between ADA (Cardano) and XRP (Ripple).
1. Core Layer: Completely independent, no native bindings
1. Completely separate development entities
◦ XRP: Born in 2012, developed by Ripple Labs, the underlying is the XRPL Ripple ledger, with a consensus mechanism based on the FBA Federation Byzantine Protocol, focusing on cross-border bank payments. The total XRP token is 100 billion with a fixed pre-mined supply.
◦ ADA (Cardano): Launched in 2017, developed by IOHK, founded by Charles Hoskinson (former Ethereum co-founder), uses Ouroboros proof-of-stake PoS, focuses on academic public chains and decentralized smart contracts, has no total supply cap for the ADA token, and issues it annually due to inflation.
The two companies, underlying blockchain, token economy, and core tracks are completely independent, with no underlying equity or technology sharing origins.
2. Early conflicts, later reconciliation and cooperation
In the early years, the two communities were at odds, with founder Charles publicly arguing with the XRP community; After 2025, the two sides will fully reconcile and begin official cooperation, which is the main source of their connection.
2. Current Solid Cooperation (Official Actions for 2025-2026)
1. Wallet interconnectivity
Cardano's official wallet Lace completed XRP support by the end of 2025, allowing users to store and transfer XRP and ADA within the same wallet, and to enable asset interconnection between the two chains via the CCIP cross-chain protocol.
2. Sidechain ecosystem integration
Cardano's privacy sidechain Midnight offers exclusive airdrops to XRP holders, allowing XRP holders to receive NIGHT tokens at zero cost; It also supports XRP lending, staking, and other DeFi operations on the Midnight chain.
3. Enterprise payment linkage
The Ripple stablecoin RLUSD is deployed on the Cardano network, building an enterprise on-chain payroll settlement system based on Cardano's Layer 2 expansion Hydra, providing compliant payment services to cross-border businesses, forming a combination solution of "XRP liquidity + Cardano smart contracts."
4. Offline communication with senior management
Cardano founder Charles has met multiple offline meetings with Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and CTO David Schwartz to jointly participate in the crypto industry roundtable hosted by the Federal Reserve, discussing regulation and cross-chain industry standard cooperation.
3. Market Interaction (Key Trading Perspectives)
1. Short-term emotional resonance
Both are compliant financial sector currencies, focusing on institutional, cross-border payment, and regulatory-friendly narratives:
◦ Positive: Easing crypto regulations in the US, institutional capital entering the market, and news of blockchain implementation in banks mean ADA and XRP usually rise in tandem;
◦ Negative factors: SEC regulatory tightening, institutional sell-offs, and negative heads in the cross-border payments sector are all under simultaneous pressure.
2. Medium-term trend divergence
The fundamental logic is completely different; after sharp rises and falls, the trend diverges:
◦ XRP prices are closely tied to Ripple's lawsuits with the SEC, bank cooperation orders, and cross-border payment policies;
◦ ADA market is tied to the number of on-chain developers, Layer 2 scaling progress, academic and technical upgrades, and DeFi ecosystem activity.
3. No strong financial binding
There is no single institution holding positions simultaneously to control the market; these are two types of assets with emotional linkage and independent fundamentals, and there is no strict binding pattern of "rising with falling as well."
4. Summary
1. No underlying blood relations: Two independent public chains, different development companies, and different technical systems, with no subordinate or same-origin relationship;
2. Deep Commercial Cooperation: By 2025, establish official cross-chain, wallet, and payment business partnerships, with high-level interconnectivity and community-friendly cooperation;
3. Market Activity Only Emotion: The same sector brings short-term market resonance, but the core driving logic is completely divided, so trading cannot simply be compared to price fluctuations. 2026年8月6日的机构资金动向，过去 7 天BTC ETF的5.82 亿美元流入与ETH ETF的7,737 万美元流入形成了鲜明的“非对称增量”格局。
一、 ETF 资金流入现状分析：BTC 避险 vs ETH 叙事重塑
1.BTC ETF ($5.82亿)：虽然美股SNDK等硬件股出现回调，但机构仍将BTC视为应对宏观不确定性（黄金冲向$4,200）的“弹性储备”。这笔资金在$58,500 - $60,000区间提供了极强的买盘支撑。
2.ETH ETF ($7,737万)：资金流入规模虽不及BTC，但连续 7 天净流入显示机构正在完成对ETH从“高贝塔山寨”到“机构级可编程资产”的属性切换。特别是Circle Arc官宣集成ETH/SOL后，流入速度有加快迹象。
二、 统计：受 ETH 资金涌入影响最大的 10 个币种
持仓增长率、关联成交量及 $ETH 汇率相关性监测，以下 10 个币种是ETH ETF流入后的核心受益者：
[1] $LDO (Lido)
● 关联度：0.92
● 原因：ETH 增量资金进入 ETF 后，最终会通过托管机构流向LSD（流动性抵押）寻找额外收益，$LDO是首选机构级标的。
[2] $OP (Optimism)
● 关联度：0.88
● 原因：作为以太坊二层（L2）的治理核心，ETF 资金的涌入通常会点燃市场对Superchain生态的估值重塑预期。
[3] $ARB (Arbitrum)
● 关联度：0.85
● 原因：以太坊生态中 TVL 最高的 L2。机构配置ETH往往伴随着对$ARB的对冲配置。
[4] $ENS (Ethereum Name Service)
● 关联度：0.81
● 原因：作为以太坊的原生身份基础设施，被机构视为持有ETH生态的“软资产”。
[5] $AAVE (Aave)
● 关联度：0.79
● 原因：Circle Arc推进 RWA 落地，Aave作为以太坊头号借贷协议，承接了大量来自机构的稳定币流动性需求。
[6] $SSV (SSV Network)
● 关联度：0.76
● 原因：DVT（分布式验证器技术）是ETH机构化质押的安全基石，受机构资金深度青睐。
[7] $PENDLE (Pendle)
● 关联度：0.74
● 原因：机构级利息掉期需求。随着ETH ETF落地，市场对ETH收益率管理的需求暴增。
[8] $UNI (Uniswap)
● 关联度：0.72
● 原因：ETH现货交易量的增加直接提升了Uniswap的协议费用收入预期。
[9] $STRK (Starknet)
● 关联度：0.69
● 原因：ZK 赛道在ETH资金溢出时的主要承接者。
[10] $PEPE (Pepe)
● 关联度：0.65
● 原因：作为ETH链上的“流动性杠杆”，每当ETH ETF带来基本面好转，投机资金会迅速通过$PEPE放大涨幅。
三、 交易策略建议
1. “BTC 护盘，ETH 打弹” 策略
*核心逻辑：利用BTC ETF的5.82 亿资金建立底部防御。
*操作：只要BTC不破$58,000，可保持50%的BTC底仓，将另外30%的资金分配给$LDO和$OP，博弈ETH ETF的滞后性补涨。
2. “ETF 资金溢出” 套利策略
*操作：监控中ETH/BTC汇率。若汇率站稳0.045且持续放量，说明7,737 万美元的增量正在引发山寨季节的回归。此时应果断从BTC调仓至$ARB或$AAVE。
3. 风险对冲：警惕 SNDK 与 黄金 的抽水
*操作：如果黄金继续向$4,300挺进，或者美股SNDK跌破$1,150关键回购区，ETF 的流入可能会被二级市场的抛压抵消。
*止损建议：$ETH止损设在$2,320（过去 24 小时清算密集区下方）。
总结：BTC资金流入是“存量保护”，ETH资金流入是“增量火种”。目前交易不应激进，建议重点布局$LDO和$AAVE，捕捉从“ETF 现货购买”到“链上协议应用”的资金传导过程。$BTC $ETH $MSTR $XRP#谷歌AI高层重组, the loss of core talent draws attention. On August 5, Google undertook the largest AI architecture restructuring since the 2023 merger of Google Brain and DeepMind. Coupled with the collective departure of several top tech veterans, the personnel shake-up has sparked high concern in the capital market. Alphabet's market value evaporated by over $180 billion in a single day, and its stock price plunged over 4%.
This personnel reshuffle is divided into two main threads: DeepMind founder and Nobel laureate Hassabis relinquished all daily operational rights, retaining only the roles of chairman and chief scientist, while the former CTO took full control of Gemini models, product launches, and other commercial businesses; Jeff Dean, chief scientist with 27 years of experience at Google, left with Gemini's core R&D team to start his own business, including core researchers in distributed computing power and large model architecture, directly draining Google's core AI R&D capabilities.
The root cause of this change is the group's strategic shift: management has weakened scientists' authority to conduct independent R&D, heavily allocated resources to AI commercialization, continuously shrinking researchers' voice, combined with persistent high-salary poaching from OpenAI and Anthropic, leading to a long-term talent drain. Currently, Google's flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro has been postponed multiple times, its programming capabilities lag behind competitors, and the departure of core members further extends model iteration cycles, weakening the technical moat.
In the short term, the market is under clear pressure, with concerns about slowing R&D progress and declining AI business competitiveness; There is a medium- to long-term differentiation logic. The new management's focus on commercialization is expected to accelerate cloud AI monetization, but ongoing talent loss will keep suppressing valuations. Going forward, it will be necessary to track the progress of Gemini's new version rollout and internal talent retention $BTC $ETH $SNDK 浮盈15万很风光但ETH退回1810就清零
半夜盯盘刷到一条监测，麻吉大哥黄立成那个地址又加仓了。现在手里是25倍杠杆的ETH多单，5415枚，名义金额1036万美元，建仓均价1884.02，账面浮盈15.4万美元。
数字摆出来挺唬人。但我第一反应不是浮盈，是那个25倍。
25倍杠杆说人话就是拿1块钱撬动25块钱的货。1036万的仓位，真正压进去的保证金也就41万出头。所以15.4万的浮盈，对本金来说是三成多，看着确实爽。
反过来算就没那么好看了。杠杆25倍，价格反向走4%左右，本金就被吃干净。均价1884，如果ETH退回1810上下那一带，这张单子基本就交代了。现在ETH报价1913附近，中间那点空间，说白了就是一根像样的插针的事。
这就是我觉得别人晒浮盈截图要打折看的原因。浮盈是还没落袋的数字，杠杆倍数才是你能活多久的真实指标。同样赚15万，有人是1000万现货躺着涨一个多点，有人是41万本金开25倍扛出来的，风险完全不是一个物种。
放到眼下的盘面看，这个位置开高倍多单更像是在赌时间。BTC这几天就在6.4到6.5万来回磨，200周均线在63657，也就是过去四年买家的平均成本线，刚站上去但成交量根本没跟，站上无量约等于没站上。Coinbase溢价指数今天更新到连续80天负溢价，最新读数负0.0978，这是该指标有记录以来最长的一次连负，翻译过来就是美国本土那批现货买盘一直没接上。
清算地图那边也不好看。往下跌破61456，主流交易所累计多单清算强度15.27亿美元；往上67341那里堆着14.37亿的空单。上下都是墙，中间空空荡荡。行情一旦被推向任意一边，先被系统卖掉的永远是杠杆最高的那批人，不看你是谁，也不看你建仓时多有信心。
所以这条监测对咱们真正有用的地方，不是跟不跟单，是拿它当把尺子量自己。你现在的仓位，价格反向走多少个点会开始难受，走多少个点会被强制平掉，这两个数字要是答不上来，那就不是在做交易，是在等运气。
横盘阶段最贵的从来不是方向判断错，是杠杆太高，扛不到方向出来那一天。你现在手上的单子，能扛住百分之几的反向波动？980,000 addresses moved overnight, but this time it's not a bull market
In the past two days, a number on the Bitcoin chain that hasn't been seen in a long time has appeared. Daily active addresses surged to 980,000; the last time it reached this level was in December 2024.
In the past, when such data came out, people's first reaction was that the market was about to move. When the chain heats up, it usually means someone is entering the market.
But this time, it really wasn't.
Glassnode put it bluntly: this round of on-chain activity growth is mainly driven by panic. Holders are migrating wallet mnemonics and transferring funds to other custody methods. In other words, among these 980,000 addresses, a significant portion are not here to buy coins but to migrate.
We discussed the reason for the move a few days ago. Coldcard's firmware vulnerability. On-chain, 1,596 BTC have been confirmed stolen, with losses exceeding $100 million.
The most chilling thing isn't the stolen amount, but where the vulnerability hides. When reviewing itself, Coinkite said the flaw isn't in the Bitcoin code or the encryption algorithm—it's stuck at the boundary between two unrelated firmware submodules. This position has evaded years of manual auditing and AI-assisted audits.
After the incident, they refused to give up and pulled three more frontier models to re-review all the code, but none of them were recognized.
There's a saying in SlowMist's Cosine I've always remembered: this time we're targeting the core group of Bitcoin believers. Those who use hardware wallets for cold storage are always the most concerned about self-custody and least trust third parties. Now, many of them are moving their coins elsewhere overnight.
So you see, on-chain data is hot, but the direction of the heat is completely wrong. This isn't a rush of capital entering the market, but self-rescue after a collapse of trust. Glassnode also added that this change does not mean market belief has shifted.
I actually think what it represents might be a bit heavier. Over the years, we've been taught that if it's not your private key, it's not your coin. This statement still holds true today, but it has a premise that no one has stated it explicitly: you must first ensure that the code that generates the private key itself is clean.
But verification is something ordinary people simply can't do. All you can do is pick a reputable brand and choose to trust it. This is essentially like placing your coin on an exchange—it's essentially trusting something you can't see—the only difference is that the person you trust has a new name.
The market was still stagnant, with the big bok still lying around 64,000, as if nothing had happened.
Where are your coins now? Hardware wallets, exchanges, or are you not even clear yourself?#黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise?
🔥 Let's start with the data, no empty talk
Gold has been really strong lately. London spot prices have already reached $4,267 per ounce, while New York futures have surged to around 4,330, just a breath away from the all-time high. What about BTC? Still hovering around 64,000 yuan, like a sleeping tiger.
Many people wonder: wasn't it supposed to be "digital gold"? Why is it that real gold is taking off, while your "digital version" is lying on the ground?
🤔 There were signs of this, but most people were unwilling to believe it
The first truth: BTC has long ceased to be gold's "digital avatar."
In the past, the crypto world touted a narrative—Bitcoin is digital gold, just like gold, a safe haven. But data doesn't lie.
Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq 100 was 0.68 at the beginning of 2025, but by February this year it had surged to 0.82. And what about the correlation between Bitcoin and gold? It barely climbed from 0.12 to 0.15, which can almost be described as "everyone playing their own game."
To put it plainly: BTC is now like brothers to tech stocks like Nvidia and Tesla. Gold? At most, they're distant cousins. Tech stocks rising and BTC might be riding the hype, but gold is rising? What does this have to do with BTC?
💰 The second truth: the institution's money is quietly withdrawing
ETFs were originally the biggest positive news in the crypto world, but now they have become a double-edged sword.
From November 2025 to January 2026, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows for three consecutive months. What's even more heartbreaking is that in mid-July, ETFs had a weekly net inflow of $197 million, but by the end of July, it had dropped to $33.79 million—an 83% drop in just one week.
What does this indicate? Institutions are not buying BTC as a safe-haven asset, but selling it as a risk asset. Whenever the market stirred, hedge funds sold Nvidia while also smashing BTC. Safe haven? Not true; BTC is now the "high-risk tech stock" in institutional portfolios.
📉 The third truth: August has always been BTC's "gates of hell."
Here's a fun fact: BTC has closed bullish in July for three consecutive years, but what about August? The historical median change is -7.87%, the worst all year, bar none.
Since 2022, August monthly K-lines have closed to a negative pattern almost the norm. The market panic index is still at 28 (the fear range), and any bad news can be magnified. Gold is rising because of geopolitical factors + rate cut expectations, while BTC isn't rising because the market simply doesn't have extra risk budget for it.
🎯 So how do you watch the rest?
In the short term, don't expect BTC to link with gold; right now, these two are following completely different logics. Gold gains are driven by Fed rate cuts + geopolitical risk aversion; BTC rises are driven by institutional capital returning, a rebound in US tech stocks, and a fading of market panic.
Currently, BTC has been sideways in the 60,000-65,000 range for a long time. Breaking above requires increased volume, while breaking below the 60,000 mark requires caution for a deep pullback. My personal judgment is that August will likely remain mostly volatile, with a low probability of a one-sided rally.
⚡ Advice for the community brothers
1. Stop using the old mindset of "gold rises and BTC must rise" in trading; the correlation between these two is long gone.
2. Pay attention to ETF fund flows, which is the most sensitive barometer in the short term. If funds continue to flow out, don't hold on.
3. August has always been volatile. Keep your positions under control, keep your bullets ready, and wait for certainty before making a big move.
The market is always changing, and the narrative becomes outdated. Recognize BTC's true identity now—it is more like a "high-volatility tech stock" than "digital gold." Accepting this reality is the only way to survive long in this market.
👇 What do you think? Do you think BTC can make a comeback in August? Let's talk in the comments.X Layer is gaining serious momentum. 🚀
According to OKX Wallet, X Layer's DeFi TVL has surpassed $100 million, marking nearly 10x growth in just six months.
The ecosystem continues to expand:
• Stablecoin supply has exceeded $2 billion, placing X Layer among the world's top public chains.
• Over 4.2 million cumulative active addresses.
• More than 400 million on-chain transactions processed.
What's even more interesting is that DeFi TVL represents only around 5% of the total stablecoin supply. That suggests a significant amount of capital is still sitting on the sidelines, leaving plenty of room for deeper DeFi adoption.
The next phase will depend on whether X Layer can attract high-quality protocols, real user activity, and sticky liquidity. If it does, this could be the beginning of a lasting ecosystem expansion—not just a temporary spike in the data.
$OKB
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch $SNDK SanDisk (SNDK) oscillates back and forth—is it a shakeout or distribution?
Core conclusion first:
At this stage, it cannot be simply defined as a traditional main force shakeout; it is a wide-range oscillation formed by large profit-taking at high levels + short-term funds repeatedly competing; half is chip exchange, half is emotional divergence after positive news landing.
1. Why the continuous back-and-forth shake and roller coaster market
1. Huge gains previously, extremely loose chip structure
The gains this year are astonishing, long-term funds entering at the bottom have rich floating profits, and whenever it surges, some funds choose to take profits. Coupled with earnings reports, typical "buy the expectation, sell the fact": this quarter's earnings data exploded, but next quarter's revenue guidance fell short of the market's extreme expectations, becoming an excuse for funds to cash out.
2. Huge divergence in storage sector cycle expectations
Bulls bet on long-term demand for AI data center storage, NAND price increase cycles, and a billion-dollar buyback to support the price; bears worry about overvaluation and unsustainable growth. The split in bullish and bearish expectations causes rapid in-and-out of two-way funds whenever there is volatility, triggering huge intraday shocks (often daily amplitude of 10%~15%).
3. Options funds and short-term swing funds intensify the oscillation
Individual stock options trading is active, and a large amount of short-term funds like to use highs and lows for swing trading, selling when prices rise and buying on dips, further amplifying the back-and-forth tug-of-war.
2. Distinguishing: Shakeout VS Distribution, two key observation signals
✅ Leaning towards healthy shakeout (there is still a rebound opportunity after oscillation)
1. Each pullback low gradually rises, and the volume during declines continues to shrink;
2. Quickly recovers lost ground after a big drop, with sustained support at low levels;
3. Holds key support zones firmly, without effectively breaking below important mid-term high-volume areas.
❌ Beware of oscillating distribution (rebound is an exit opportunity)
1. Rebound volume weakens increasingly, unable to surge, and highs keep moving lower;
2. Large volume on big drops, shrinking volume on rebounds;
3. Multiple tests of support, ultimately effectively breaking key price levels.
3. Key short-term monitoring ranges (simple execution reference)
Support range: 1160–1180
If it continues to hold oscillation within this range, it is a range shakeout market; once it effectively breaks below 1160, the oscillation pattern is likely broken and downside space opens.
Pressure range: 1340–1445
Heavy resistance above, the first touch tends to meet resistance and fall back; only by continuously increasing volume and holding above 1445 can the oscillation box break upward.
4. Trading response ideas
1. Do not blindly guess direction
Wide oscillation markets are most taboo for one-sided heavy long/short positions; chasing highs easily traps you, selling in panic can be at the lowest point; try to wait until near support/resistance levels before acting.
2. Strict position control
There are many false breakouts during oscillation phases; refuse heavy positions for speculation, enter and exit in batches.
3. Set hard stop losses
Oscillation can end at any time; once the box is broken, do not hold positions. $SNDK $SNDK Here's a polished and balanced English version of your post:
A quick market observation—those who understand the implications will know why this matters.
Reports suggest Changxin Storage (CXMT) has rejected Apple's request for lower memory prices, instead offering pricing in line with Samsung and SK Hynix. The significance isn't just about higher prices—it's about who holds the pricing power.
For years, major device makers like Apple largely dictated terms, while suppliers competed on price. If memory manufacturers can now push back, it signals a potential shift in bargaining power from buyers to sellers.
With memory shortages expected to persist into 2027 and production capacity reportedly booked well in advance, the supply-side story continues to strengthen.
The spillover into crypto is worth watching.
Markets may be re-pricing hard assets backed by tangible supply-and-demand dynamics, while narrative-driven assets like $BTC have taken a back seat in the short term.
The key question is whether capital eventually rotates back into crypto once this cycle matures.
$BTC
#Bitcoin #Crypto #Semiconductors #Memory #AI #Markets #Investing$TRUMP The price fell from nearly $75 to around $1, a 98% drawdown. The core contradiction lies in the waning of political celebrity aura and the combined demands for regulatory investigations, which have led to shrinking risk appetite and liquidity exhaustion.
From market facts, the drop from a high of nearly $75 to around $1 has trapped 990,000 people, directly locking in liquidity above and turning high-level selling pressure into the main force suppressing price recovery.
The core drivers of market evolution were the exit of speculative funds leading to position clearing, and compliance concerns triggered by a U.S. senator's letter to regulators requesting an investigation. The risk transmission of events has significantly reduced overall risk appetite.
Ongoing evaluation of token unlock arrangements, team holdings concentration, and liquidity pool capacity will be continuously evaluated. Stakeholder sell-offs will directly change asset pricing benchmarks.
In the upward scenario, if a political hotspot suddenly triggers emotional bottom-fishing, the price may start a sharp short-term rebound near $1. The variable to watch is whether trading volume can continue to expand. If the rebound is triggered by a concentrated exit from 990,000 holds, this upward logic will immediately fail.
In a downward scenario, if regulatory investigation demands intensify or stakeholders concentrate selling, the price risks falling below the $1 support level. Variables to watch are concentrated token unlocking and spot depth; if large buying continues to take hold, the downward trend will be temporarily halted.
The most important variables to watch in the next seven days are the depth of liquidity support at the $1 level, changes in stakeholder positions, and regulatory investigation progress.
#Polymarket洽谈10亿美元融资, valuations exceed $20 billion #ADP就业降温, Federal Reserve policy divisions intensify by #意大利大行减IBIT普通股94%, increasing staking ETH$BTC $ETH $SNDK If Trump loses the midterm elections, how bad will the crypto market be?
The current situation in the crypto market is very delicate. Although the Trump administration is not particularly crypto-friendly, it at least provided a clear framework: regulation is required, free market is free, and at least it knows where to go
If the midterm elections lose and the Democrats regain power, the situation could be completely different. During the last Democratic term, the crypto industry was suppressed by the SEC, exchanges were sued, stablecoins were investigated, project teams were summoned, and the entire industry lived in the shadow of litigation
What's even more ruthless is that once the Democrats come to power, will they use crypto as a tool to interfere in elections, using interference in internal affairs as an excuse, and arrest crypto tycoons, exchanges, project teams, and even on-chain protocols worldwide—all of them could become targets
If it comes to that point, the crypto market won't face a bull-bear switch, but a systemic liquidation. No one knows where Bitcoin will fall, but crypto will definitely suffer ten times worse than now
So what the crypto industry wants most now isn't about deregulation or liquidity easing, but about Trump at least making it through the midterms—even if he's not good, but better than the Democrats coming back
Crypto needs a short-term bull to save Trump, Trump can save crypto — mutual chips #SanDisk's earnings both beat expectations, $14 billion new buyback authorization #财报观察员: Mixed results, lock-up lifting imminent! What is SpaceX's outlook? #Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC achieve new growth? The Cash-Flow Judgment of AI Computing Power: Can Big Tech, Frenzied for Shovels, Outperform ROI Inversion?
Google just released a report showing revenue exceeding expectations, but its stock price plunged more than 5% that day, simply because of a figure in the report that most people overlooked: negative free cash flow.
It's not just Google; during the earnings season in August 2026, major hyperscalers including Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are facing the same awkward situation. They are caught in a computing power arms race they must join. According to the latest industry forecasts from institutions like Goldman Sachs, the capEx (capital expenditure) of these giants on AI infrastructure this year will soar to an astonishing $725 billion to $760 billion. This figure is terrifying, but the market no longer blindly pays whenever it sees a giant buying GPUs like it was last year. Wall Street's patience is running low, and everyone is pressing the same question: when will the real money invested be cashed out?
This is precisely the core conflict in current computing network valuations—the severe inversion of ROI (return on investment). The money spent on shovels is real, but the money earned from applications is like a trickle. What's even more interesting is that the recent so-called better-than-expected profits of the S&P 500 are partly due not to their core business, but to the increase in book value brought by their early equity investments in private AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic. This kind of paper wealth cannot cover the loss of cash flow in the secondary market. Even worse, many giants' capital expenditure growth is not 20% to 30% of capital expenditure growth because of buying more chips, but because supply chain inflation has caused data center electricity and construction costs to skyrocket. Computing power giants are evolving from high-profit tech companies into heavy-asset, high-cost power infrastructure companies.
I myself hold some AI sector tokens (decentralized computing power and storage). The most direct feeling is that last year, even if these coins had no business revenue, as long as they were related to the AI concept, they could multiply several times. But this year, if you don't present a decent corporate monetization bill, the market will vote with your feet. Last week, I also cut some pure decentralization hash power altcoins and consolidated my positions. Under the dual pressure of heavy asset infrastructure inflation and under-expected monetizations, fake demand tokens are being ruthlessly cleared out by the market.
Whether AI narratives can turn investments into real profits by year-end, or will it leave behind a pile of expensive fiber like the internet bubble back then, the answer may be revealed in next quarter's earnings season.
#谷歌AI高层重组, the loss of core talent draws attention $BTC Strategy sold another 1,638 BTC. This time, I really can't say it's a "minor adjustment"
In the past, everyone assumed one thing:
Strategy sells stocks precisely to keep buying BTC.
But recently, this logic has been reversed.
The latest disclosures show that Strategy sold 1,638 BTC between July 27 and August 2, cashing out about $104.7 million. Part of the funds was used to pay preferred dividends, while another portion was used to repurchase STRC preferred shares.
To be honest, selling 1,638 BTC wouldn't crash the market.
What truly deserves caution is that Strategy is gradually shifting from being the most staunch marginal buyer of BTC to a company that relies on selling coins to maintain its financing system.
People used to believe it would always be bought.
Now the question becomes:
If BTC continues to move sideways but preferred stock dividends and cash needs persist, will it keep selling?
I don't think Strategy will collapse anytime soon, but the myth of "buy only, not sell" has already been broken.
The most ironic thing is, while retail investors are waiting for Saylor's next buy signal, companies may be the first to consider how to stabilize cash flow.
Do you think this is normal financial management, or is Strategy's Bitcoin model starting to crack?
$BTC #Strategy #MichaelSaylor #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币, scale was halved The speed at which on-chain funds are gathering is breaking the previous silence, opening a window between the pools of accumulated funds and the capture of token value.
The scale of stablecoins on the network has expanded to over $2.1 billion, ranking among the top global public chains and providing a foundational foundation for capital accumulation.
In the past six months, DeFi locked value has surpassed $100 million and grown nearly tenfold, accompanied by over 4.2 million active addresses and 400 million transactions, indicating that liquidity accumulation is moving from a mere concept to actual interaction.
The expansion of on-chain stablecoin scale provides decentralized finance with usable liquidity depth, and this accumulated capital volume forms the prerequisite for capturing $OKB value.
When on-chain funds continue to be held in ecosystem applications and locked amounts keep rising, ecosystem value accumulation will gradually emerge; If there is a lack of high-retention applications in the future, liquidity may return to stagnation.
If overall external macro liquidity tightens or on-chain funds flow to other networks, the accumulation speed of the $2.1 billion pool slows down, disrupting the original support logic.
If the growth of active addresses stalls and trading volume drops sharply, it means current capital inflows are only short-term speculative capital, and expectations of ecosystem value capture will be disproven.
The most important variable to watch over the next seven days is whether stablecoin sizes can continue to maintain stable retention above $2.1 billion.
#谷歌AI高层重组, the loss of core talent draws attention. #黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC followed the rise? #意大利大行减IBIT普通股94%, increased staking ETH两天没发行情分析了，主要是去做股票了
从我的角度来谈一谈加密和股票吧
会让加密玩家不舒服，但句句都是实话，也算是给欧意官方的一点意见
经历了几次爆仓，发现还是现货适合我，包括2倍杠杆的股票现货
（但okx并没有这种股票功能，比较伤）
因为挂理想价格接的股票，不会担心什么时候爆仓，不用每天24小时看盘，不用去看各种技术指标
像台积电，我是2倍做多
7月29号那天美股闷头暴跌，我没慌，拿着没两天就涨回来了
因为美股和加密不一样，至少从我的看法是这样
前几年买BTC，做链上项目，做web3发财的确实很多$BTC
但今年已经2026年了
一个爆火项目的下一步就是拉新人卖铲子
因为自己做项目的收益已经大幅下滑，已经不如拉人头换交易所奖励来的实在
这也是为什么几大交易所疯狂退出拉新活动，比如ok，他今年在做社区建设，引进达人
交易所他自己能看到数据的，每年有多少爆仓，有多少新入场玩家，有多少手续收益
走到现在这一步已经说明交易所的人少了，或者说，玩加密的人少了
要通过博主在X、小红书、抖音、ins这些平台引流
和前几年凉兮的神话不同，现在新闻多是做加密爆仓xxx万
加密的热度已经被泼了盆冷水
而bn、ok、bg引入美股，就是在给加密市场注入流动性$SNDK
去年使用ok时，只能在大饼、二饼、sol间选，因为这几个就是加密的优质资产
而今年可以买美股了，加上国内的严监管、纳指标普基金限售
能买到QQQ和VOO的平台屈指可数
而目前几个平台都可以买7000+美股，这是一个很好的卖点
主要是：
1.国内港股通买美股限制太高，需要50万门槛
2.港股通手续费太贵
3.链上合约和bstocks可以7*24小时交易，国内没有券商平台可以这样
目前链上美股的交易量已经高于大部分山寨币了
行业龙头比如英伟达、闪迪的交易量也在逐步追赶BTC、ETH$ETH
可以说未来链上美股的流动性是越来越高的
所以，建议你们都来尝试美股
@OKX星球 @OKX中文
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ I entered at 1391 and set the lower stop-loss at 1219, expecting a buffer of over 100 points. No matter how big the earnings fluctuations, it was enough to withstand it. But revenue was 8.97 billion, EPS 39.25, gross margin 84.6%—everything was effective, and after-hours it still dropped 9 points. The reason was simple: next quarter's guidance cut 250 million. The market's patience for earnings reports is limited now; if you're not explosive enough, it's negative. Fundamental data means nothing in sentiment. I'm currently with a floating loss of 17%, price at 1271, the grid keeps running, the lower boundary hasn't broken, so the strategy keeps going. It's a lie to say I'm not anxious, but I realize one thing: this drop isn't a company fault, it's because capital is too sensitive to the entire earnings season. $AMD and $SPCX have played the same scenario before: revenue exceeded expectations, and after-hours plunges still happened. That's just how the market is. As long as the range holds, the grid profits from volatility itself, not from one-sided rallies to break even. If the decline doesn't break through 12/19, I'll keep grinding with it. Once it really breaks the lower boundary, I'll decide whether to admit fault and exit. The question now isn't whether the company is up to par, but whether the market is willing to give this type of earnings a smile. SNDK #财报观察员: Mixed results, the unlocking is approaching! What is SpaceX's outlook going forward? #Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC see new growth? $BTC Does the four-year halving cycle still exist? Is Bitcoin dead?
· An unchanging hard fact: Bitcoin's code is hard-coded, with a block reward halved roughly every 210,000 blocks (roughly 4 years). 2028 will see the fifth halving, and the underlying mechanism of supply contraction will remain permanently effective and will not disappear.
· Fundamental changes: In the early three-cycle cycle, halving was the primary driving force of the market; But now, institutional and liquidity dominate prices, and the classic four-year cycle of "one-sided bull stock—crash 80%" after the halving has been seriously weakened and can no longer be regarded as an iron rule.
2. Is Bitcoin "dead"?
It is necessary to distinguish between two layers of meaning and avoid confusion:
1. Will the technology network die (reset to zero)
—Almost impossible. Bitcoin has no centralized operating entity, with countless nodes operating globally in a distributed manner, and no institution or country can shut down the entire network. As long as someone is willing to hold and transfer, on-chain consensus exists. Extreme regulation at most squeezes trading liquidity and blocks in-and out channels, making it impossible to destroy Bitcoin itself.
2. Narrative Level: The Original Ideals "Have Already Died Away"
— Early Bitcoin narratives were decentralized assets detached from sovereign currency, unregulated, and resistant to traditional financial systems. But the current situation is: the US has completed compliance acceptance, with ETFs, custodians, and regulatory frameworks in place; Prices are highly tied to dollar liquidity, with movements following the Nasdaq and Treasury yields; The biggest buyers have become Wall Street institutions, and Bitcoin is shifting toward alternative commodities. The mystery disappears, and utopian ideals fade.
Many early crypto players refer to "Bitcoin is dead" as the decentralization revolution narrative dies, not the token itself going to zero. Bitcoin is not truly "dead," but the native crypto utopian narrative has faded and entered a whole new pricing paradigm.
#财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future? $ZBT $ETH @Mihua Lilac_OKX The nature of BTC's rebound, what derivatives positions say, the momentum from negotiations between the US and Iran, the shift to net ETF inflows, and the positioning of the futures market all point in the same direction? BTC held the $64,000 level, moving within a narrow upward range. The short-term support level has been revised upward to $63,800, while the medium-term support at $63,000 has added strength. However, trading volume was insufficient to break through the resistance zones of $64,600 and $65,000. Although overall trading volume has slightly increased, the inflow of new funds remains at a cautious level. The key trigger for this rebound is the easing of geopolitical risks. International oil prices plunged following news that the U.S. and Iran had reached a tentative agreement on negotiations regarding passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S. Treasury yields also declined in both short- and long-term. This has had a positive effect on risk assets, including crypto, by lowering inflation expectations and reducing the cost of holding risk assets. In terms of relative strength, ETH remains robust. L2 transfer activity and restaking lock-up scale are steadily increasing,As of now, the crypto market has experienced intense two-way shakeouts in the past 24 hours, with total liquidations reaching $332 million. There are serious suggestions at the end to prevent forced liquidations—definitely worth a careful look.
The characteristics of this liquidation event are: a long squeeze (triggered by a plunge in the US stock storage sector) coexisting with a short squeeze (triggered by a $ENA whale locking up positions).
1. Core liquidation data in the past 24 hours
Current total network liquidations: $332,000,000
* Long liquidations: $215 million (64.7%)
* Short liquidations: $117 million (35.3%)
Top 15 cryptocurrencies by liquidation amount:
[01] $BTC (Bitcoin)
● Liquidation amount: $112 million
● Nature: Longs account for 68%. The break of the $60,500 support triggered a chain stop-loss.
[02] $ETH (Ethereum)
● Liquidation amount: $74 million
● Nature: Longs account for 72%. Funds trampled at the $2,400 level.
[03] $SOL (Solana)
● Liquidation amount: $45 million
● Nature: Two-way liquidation. After a boost from Circle Arc, the market dragged it down, clearing leverage near $75.
[04] $ENA (Ethena)
● Liquidation amount: $31 million
● Nature: Short squeeze. Due to a large pledge of 40 million tokens, shorts were crushed near $1.30.
[05] $AR (Arweave)
● Liquidation amount: $18.5 million
● Nature: Long liquidation. Storage longs stopped out below $48 due to SNDK's (-11%) plunge.
[06] $XRP (Ripple)
● Liquidation amount: $12 million
● Nature: Long liquidation. Profit-taking after Visa payment expectations were priced in.
[07] $DOGE (Dogecoin)
● Liquidation amount: $9.8 million
● Nature: Long liquidation. Musk-related asset sell-off triggered by SpaceX unlock news.
[08] $FIL (Filecoin)
● Liquidation amount: $7.2 million
● Nature: Long liquidation. Collective decline in the storage sector.
[09] $PEPE (Pepe)
● Liquidation amount: $6.5 million
● Nature: Long liquidation. Rising risk aversion rapidly drained liquidity from Meme coins.
[10] $XLM (Stellar)
● Liquidation amount: $5.4 million
● Nature: Two-way liquidation. After Western Union's positive news was fully priced in, increased volatility hit leverage on both sides.
[11] $ORDI (Ordinals)
● Liquidation amount: $4.1 million
● Nature: Long liquidation. Inscription sector retraced due to $BTC weakness.
[12] $LINK (Chainlink)
● Liquidation amount: $3.8 million
● Nature: Long liquidation. Despite Arc technology benefits, macro sell-off prevailed.
[13] $TIA (Celestia)
● Liquidation amount: $3.2 million
● Nature: Long liquidation. Modular narrative showed weakness in a choppy market.
[14] $AVAX (Avalanche)
● Liquidation amount: $2.9 million
● Nature: Long liquidation. Large funds flowed into the more certain $SOL.
[15] $WIF (dogwifhat)
● Liquidation amount: $2.5 million
● Nature: Long liquidation. Inertia liquidation of high-beta assets.
2. Why did such large-scale liquidations occur within 24 hours?
1. Macro risk aversion and correlated sell-offs: Gold rebounded to $4,200, draining market liquidity. While the S&P 500 added $2.1 trillion in market cap and BTC stagnated, high-leverage longs lost patience and exited, triggering chain liquidations.
2. Liquidity “baiting”: Institutions used positive news like $ENA staking to create localized rallies, then exploited SNDK’s pullback at US market open to spike prices down, precisely harvesting “smart money” hovering near support levels.
3. Forced liquidation experience and elite warnings
As an analyst, I offer these three iron rules:
1. Reject cross-coin full-margin risk hedging
Many traders today tried to hedge losses on $AR by going long $SOL. But in a highly correlated market like August 2026, SNDK’s collapse instantly drags down all related sectors, wiping out full-margin accounts.
* Warning: In extreme conditions, switch to isolated margin mode to confine losses within single positions.
2. Avoid stop-loss settings near “liquidity black holes”
Institutions love to reverse spike 50-100 points below round numbers (e.g., $60,000 or $2,400).
* Experience: Stop-loss orders should be set outside the volatility range below technical support (ATR multiplier), not exactly at the support point.
3. Strictly control leverage multiples and distance to liquidation price
Over 80% of positions in the $332 million liquidation used leverage above 20x.
* Experience: As long as gold stays above $4,000, the market remains highly volatile. Leverage should be kept under 5x, ensuring liquidation price has a buffer of over 30% from the current price.
Summary: Today's liquidation amount is a typical cost of "post-earnings positioning adjustment." Don’t blindly short during $ENA rallies, nor stubbornly hold longs during storage sector ($AR, $FIL) declines. Protect your principal and wait for sentiment bottoming in gold and the US semiconductor sector. #$BTC $ETH $MSTR $BTC $ETH $SNDK Rose over 8 points before the market opened, then turned around and dropped 3.72%, closing down about 2%. One company's net profit improved by $530 million year-on-year, with on-chain trading volume surging 151%. BlackRock and Visa are competing to be validators. Why did the stock price drop? The answer is simple: short-term data is fighting, long-term narrative is exploding. The market doesn't know which side to believe and starts with negative news. Revenue was 701 million, below Wall Street's expected 717 million. For the second consecutive quarter, USDC's quarter-end circulating supply missed 73.3 billion A 19% year-on-year increase looks decent, but compared to the end of Q1, it shrank by 4.8%. Mizuho Securities directly pointed out that behind the impressive data, USDC's quarter-on-quarter decline and margin pressure are core concerns. Adding further positive news: net profit of 48 million, loss of 482 million in the same period last year, year-on-year improvement of 530 million. On-chain trading volume of 14.8 trillion, up 151% year-on-year. Effective wallets of 7 million, up 24%. Approved by OCC to establish Federal Trust Bank, one of the first stablecoin issuers with a federal bank license CPN's annualized transaction volume reached 14.7 billion, a 76% quarter-on-quarter surge. 175 financial institutions joined. The annual guidance for other income was directly raised from 150 million to 170 million to 310 million, doubling the total. But the most explosive was Arc's mainnet launch on September 16, with founding validators listed: BlackRock, DTCC, Galaxy Global Payments, ICE, Mastercard, MoneyGram, and SBThis round of adjustment is closer to "post-bull market valuation repricing" rather than the start of a new bear market.
The biggest current market disagreement centers on one point: is 126K already the top of this cycle? If the answer is yes, then the subsequent trend should follow the bear market model; But if the answer is not yet determined, then the current decline feels more like a deep valuation correction in a long-term bull market rather than a trend reversal.
The bottom logic for the two paths is completely different.
1. The structure of market participants has changed; it is no longer a retail-led exodus, but a process of capital reallocation.
The decline from 2021 to 2022 was essentially the collapse of the credit system—Luna, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX collapsed one after another, exchanges faced crises, many institutions were forced to liquidate, and Bitcoin quickly plunged to 15K. In a leveraged market, once credit collapses, trampling is inevitable.
But the current market structure has fundamentally changed. ETF holdings have become an important variable; institutional funds are no longer just trading but part of asset allocation, with holding cycles and cost structures completely different from the previous round. Even if the market continues to weaken, it is unlikely to repeat the "step-by-step death spiral" of 2022; it is more likely that high-level buying funds will gradually lose patience, slowly reduce positions, and the market will bottom out for a long time. At this stage, time may be more important than space.
2. The real focus is not on how much BTC has fallen, but on who is selling.
The drop from 126K to 58K is already quite significant. But the real question in the market is: how many people are still waiting to break even? At the top of a bull market, large amounts of 80K, 100K, or even ETF highs have accumulated to enter the market. The psychological path of these holders is usually: normal pullback→ buying down on drops→ waiting for the break-even → selling once the price is recovered. Therefore, if excessive trapped positions accumulate around 70K, the rebound will repeatedly fail until this portion of supply is fully digested.
3. The structure at the bottom of this round may be completely different from the previous round.
The previous path was a one-sided decline of 69K→50K→ 30K→15K. The current path is closer to 126K→80K→58K→ 52K-70K range → finally confirming the bottom. The core difference is that ETFs have changed the market's pricing mechanism: in the past, price determined capital; now, capital flow determines price. If ETFs continue to see net outflows, BTC will gradually seek a new balance; If ETFs resume net inflows, even if the macro environment does not significantly improve, the adjustment may end early.
4. The key is whether the market can re-accept higher valuation ranges.
BTC rose from 15K to 126K, an increase of more than 8 times. The question the market must face is: Who are the long-term buyers for BTC above $100,000? The previous round of answers was retail investors, traders, and crypto-native funds, but now ETF funds, family offices, corporate asset allocation, and sovereign funds are needed to join this list. If these incremental funds are insufficient to support prices above 100K, then 126K may only be a temporary overheating; If these funds continue to flow in, then around 60K may be the area for institutional reallocation.
5. Three psychological price levels are more worth watching than technical support levels.
The first layer is 70K, the confidence line. Climbing above 70K again means the market believes the correction is over, ETF funds are more likely to return, and bearish sentiment will gradually fade.
The second layer is the 55K range, the revaluation zone. When it falls to this range, long-term funds will reassess BTC's allocation value over the next five years, directly deciding whether new buyers enter.
The third level is around 45K, an unconventional correction zone. Unless there are additional negative factors such as a clear bear market in US stocks, sharp liquidity tightening, structural deterioration of ETF funds, or a significant increase in macro risk, it is difficult to reach this level based solely on the cycle's own adjustment.
Core Judgment:
The real question now isn't "Will 2022 be repeated?" but whether, after 126K, Bitcoin is completing its valuation shift from speculative to institutional assets. If not, 126K could be the top of the bubble, and the market will need longer to re-price; If the shift is underway, then this is not the start of a bear market, but a major turnover in the middle of a bull market.
The most important signal in the coming months is not the lowest price, but whether ETF funds are steadily flowing back, whether there can be effective trading above 70K, whether long-term holders are starting to increase their positions again, and whether the market is gradually shifting from "waiting for a surge" to "accepting a slow bull." The real bottom often doesn't appear when everyone is pessimistic, but when the market realizes "the rise won't happen immediately, but the decline is becoming increasingly difficult."
$BTC Crypto Daily — 2026.8.6
$BTC held steady at $64.7K, $ETH approached $1.9K again, but U.S. spot buying has been discounted for 80 consecutive days, and behind the rebound is a split of "strong prices, weak demand."
1. OpenFX acquired Global Ledger and launched USD accounts supporting ACH / Fedwire / SWIFT and USDC in 100+ countries; Stablecoin payments continue to move from on-chain transfers to global bank account infrastructure.
2. $BTC The US spot premium index has been negative for 80 consecutive days, setting a record for the longest consecutive negative premium streak; This means the current rebound relies more on global liquidity and derivatives recovery, and US spot buying has yet to show a significant return.
3. OKX / $OKB:$OKB Today -0.1%, price around $85.85, maintaining narrow range.
4. $BTC 30-day average hashrate dropped about 19% from November 2025 to 898 EH/s, marking the longest decline in nine months; Mining companies continue to shift computing power and power resources toward AI contracts, weakening mining narratives and strengthening energy infrastructure narratives.
5. In the past 24 hours, total market liquidations amounted to about $244 million, including about $139 million for shorts and $105 million for longs, with approximately 93,668 traders liquidated; $BTC The scale of liquidations is close to $ETH, indicating that the rebound is still being pulled by high leverage.
6. $GLIDR 24-hour increase of +126.2%, becoming today's strongest counterfeit stock; However, trading volume was only about $39K, indicating extremely low liquidity rally, with limited reference value for price signals.
7. Altcoins: $M, $BTW, $UB, $CYS rose by +66.7% / +24.8% / +24.4% / +9.8% respectively, with heat concentrated in high-elasticity small-caps, BTC ecosystem, data infrastructure, and ZK sectors; Among them, $UB had a trading volume of about $56.5 million, indicating higher capital participation.
Market conditions
$BTC Current $64,696 (+0.7%); $ETH Current $1,912.10 (+2.1%).
$OKB -0.1%, with platform coins showing overall divergence.
Brief review the next day
$BTC Bullish probability 54/100, bearish 46/100; Counterfeit sentiment remains strong, but extremely low liquidity stocks have seen excessive gains, increasing the risk of chasing highs.
Expected tomorrow
$BTC Volatility range -1.5% to +2.0%, key focus on $65K. If it holds above $65K, it can continue to test $66.8K–$68K; If it falls below $63.8K, the short-term move may return to the $62.5K–$63K defensive zone.As expected, it's still the same as always!!
Still thinking about it in the morning
This time, maybe he really can break free
But that night, he faced reality again
Still the familiar plot
Still the familiar taste!!
——
$ETH For more than two months
I've seen this kind of trend too many times
Every time is the same
Let me give you a little hope first
It makes you feel as if dawn has arrived
It makes you feel like you're getting your money for money right away
Then suddenly there was a twist
Then he pressed the person back to where he stood
——
During the daytime today
Seeing $ETH rebound again
In fact, he had a glimmer of fantasy in his heart
I wondered if this time would be different
Is it finally the bears' turn to be harvested?
Could this time they finally free out the positions that had been stuck for so long?
The market situation told me
You're overthinking it
——
The biggest problem with this market is this
Every breakthrough looks strong
But look closely
All of these were fake breakthroughs
There was no sustained buying when it surged
Trading volume can't keep up
As soon as the pressure position was reached,
The funds immediately began to be cashed out
The bulls chased in
Then become the next batch to take over
——
Right now, the market is still speculating on various rumors
Changes in the US-Iran situation
Crude oil prices retreated
Risk sentiment repair
US stocks rebounded
These short-term developments can indeed stimulate prices
But ultimately, the market still looks at capital
Not just one or two news stories
If there really is a large amount of money entering the market,
$ETH should have broken through key positions long ago
Instead of repeatedly acting near pressure points
——
I kept holding my $ETH long and short positions (according to chart positions).
Average opening price around 2018
The current price is around 1875
Floating loss is around 700 USD
Yield -21%
This position has been stuck on the tree for a long time
It would be a lie to say it wasn't uncomfortable
But he wasn't as panicked as before
——
Because after several rounds, I realized
The market is the most tormenting
Not a direct drop
It's this kind of repeated tug-of-war
Give you a little hope every day
Then slowly wear down your patience
It helps you choose to give up when you're closest to breaking even
——
Currently, $ETH is at the 2000 level
It has become a clear source of pressure
but the emperor did not leave
It's hard to open up new spaces
Let's first look at the area around 1850
If the weakening continues,
The 1800 area remains an important support
And if you can't even hold 1800,
Market sentiment may once again turn into panic
——
$BTC is the same
Now it seems stronger than ether
But if Da Bing cannot continue to break through,
Funds will not remain at high levels indefinitely
Once risk appetite declines
The entire market will be affected
——
$BEAT Recent trends are also worth noting
The previous unlocking pressure hasn't been fully absorbed yet
Although there are occasional rebounds
But there is no ongoing relay of funds
This type of coin is most vulnerable to a weakening market trend
It's easy to follow the market and amplify the decline
——
$SNDK It has also recently become a focal point of market attention
Expectations driven by AI and storage demand are very strong
Funds have been speculating on the semiconductor sector
But the higher the expectations, the better
The more cautious you are about the positive news being realized
True strength
It's not about building it up through stories
Instead, data and funding drive together
——
After all,
This short position has been stuck for more than two months
The plot has already been played out several times
Every time, I feel it
"This time should be different."
Finally, I found out
Still the familiar market
Still the same dog farm that loves to repeatedly harvest emotions
——
Now I've come to terms with it
Let what is meant to happen come
and do not rush to cut it
Nor do they fantasize about miracles
He obediently continued to stay in the tree
Waiting for it to give an answer
$ETH
You can keep grinding
But I'm not in a hurry anymore
Look at this time
It was ultimately a fake breakthrough
Or is it finally about to soar like a rocket?
#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
#财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future?
#黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise? Family, the most exciting event tonight isn't during earnings season, but at SpaceX. 911.5 million shares worth nearly $100 billion in internal holdings will officially be unlocked tonight, August 6.
There is likely selling pressure, but not as scary as you might think.
Let's first look at the chip structure. Currently, there are only 639 million tradable shares, accounting for less than 5% of total share capital. Tonight's unlock volume has more than doubled the free float, but unlocking does not mean selling.
These early employees and investors had extremely low costs; even though the stock price fell from 225 to 108, their book profits remained substantial, showing genuine motivation to cash in. But on the other hand, short positions had already reached 219 million shares, accounting for 34% of the free float, with a net profit of about $7 billion. If the actual selling after the lock-up was lifted below expectations, these bears would be crushed and instead push the stock price higher.
And tonight is only the first round, covering only 20% of locked shares. By early December, circulating shares will soar from 639 million to 5.33 billion, with bears betting on an even greater supply flood ahead.
Several key positions are favorable:
Long strategy: Don't rush to catch the flying knife. Wait for the price to pull back to the 102-108 range, which has been the support zone since the IPO. Consider entering once volume stabilizes. Set a stop-loss at 95; if it breaks, it means the clearing of shares is not over. Take profit first by looking at 120-125; if it rises, then take more.
Short strategy: If tonight's opening rebounds directly to the 120-125 range, especially if the volume shrinks and the rebound occurs, you can try shorting a lot. Set a stop-loss at 130, take profit-taking at 108 first, and if it breaks, move down to 100.
The core of tonight isn't betting on direction, but waiting for signals. Look at trading volume: If there is huge volume tonight but the price doesn't crash, it means someone is buying, which actually signals stabilization. If the price drops on shrinking volume and is on the side, it means no one is buying, so just keep waiting.
Good luck to everyone, share your trading strategies in the comments. #财报观察员: Mixed results, the lifting of restrictions is approaching! What is SpaceX's outlook going forward? $SNDK $SPCX $BTC [Crypto Scenario]
I'm Script Bro. After the US stock market opened tonight, the market saw a rather noticeable change: funds began to cash out in the previously strongest AI storage sector, with SK Hynix plunging over 10% intraday, and storage sectors like SanDisk SNDK and Western Digital also coming under pressure. The decline of SK Hynix and SanDisk this time is essentially not due to a disappearance of AI demand, but rather because market expectations are too high.
After SanDisk released its financial report yesterday, although the performance was good and revenue growth was obvious, the stock price still plunged because market expectations were maxed out, and funds chose to realize profits.
During my livestream the night before last, Script Bro warned everyone in advance about this risk, taking profits with three single-order SanDisks. This afternoon during the livestream, I took profits on one BTC trade and two SanDisk trades.
Recently, AI hardware, chips, and storage have been the main themes pursued by market funds. The rise in these directions indicates the market is willing to take risks, and funds are more likely to flow into highly elastic assets like BTC and ETH. But if the core AI sector starts to adjust, it means funds start to reassess overvalued assets, short-term risk appetite will decline, and BTC will be more susceptible.
Currently, Bitcoin is still affected by risk sentiment in the US stock market. If the AI sector continues to adjust, short-term funds may remain cautious, with resistance in the 65,000-66,000 range above BTC becoming quite obvious; However, if US tech stocks stabilize and market risk appetite recovers, BTC still has a chance to continue breaking upward.
In my opinion, last night's drop in SanDisk and today's drop in SK Hynix seems more like a rebalancing of high-level funds, rather than a complete end of the AI rally.
What do you think—is this AI storage adjustment a short-term shakeout, or is the market cooling down? Let's talk in the comments. $SNDK $SPCX $SKHYNIX #Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth?
📊 Q2 Financial Report: Strong Operations, but Revenue Continues to Fall Short of Expectations
Circle's Q2 revenue was $701 million, +7% year-over-year, but slightly below expectations (for the second consecutive quarter). Net profit was 48.2 million yuan, turning profitable year-on-year. USDC circulating volume was $73.3 billion (+19% year-on-year), on-chain trading volume was $14.8 trillion (+151% year-on-year), and stablecoin market share jumped from 36% to 70%. After the financial report, the stock price fluctuated sharply, dropping about 20% throughout the year.
🔑 Arc: Second growth curve
The Arc public chain is scheduled to launch on the mainnet on September 16, with 11 institutions including BlackRock, DTCC, Visa, and Mastercard serving as genesis validation nodes. BlackRock plans to deploy the BUIDL fund to Arc, and DTCC is advancing tokenized settlement. ARC token presale financing is about $242 million ($0.30 per token), led by a16z, with participation from BlackRock, Apollo, and others. Circle clearly stated that Arc's potential could surpass USDC itself, and nearly doubled its full-year revenue guidance (including ARC presale recognized revenue of about $180 million).
⚠️ Risks and concerns
· The reserve return rate fell 66 basis points year-on-year to 3.48%, with falling interest rates suppressing core profit models;
· Operating expenses increased 23% year-on-year, with short-term investments in Arc and AI eroding profits;
· The Open USD Alliance (including Visa, Mastercard, BlackRock, Coinbase, and 140+ institutions) plans to launch a revenue-sharing stablecoin, posing a potential threat to USDC;
· Morgan Stanley recently downgraded its rating to "Underweight," with a target price of $38.
💡 Can USDC see new growth?
In the short term, if events such as the Arc mainnet launch, BUIDL deployment, and DTCC integration proceed smoothly, they are expected to bring incremental institutional use cases and on-chain settlement demand to USDC, driving circulation back to growth. In the medium to long term, Circle is shifting from "reserve yield-driven" to "platform ecosystem-driven." If Arc can attract enough institutional assets and trading traffic, USDC will upgrade from a stablecoin tool to a core settlement layer for institutional-grade financial infrastructure, significantly opening the growth ceiling. However, Arc is still in its early stages, with execution risk and market competition remaining key variables.#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
📊 Core Financial Data
SanDisk delivered an exceptionally impressive Q4 FY2026 report:
· Revenue: $8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year, up 51% quarter-over-quarter, significantly exceeding market expectations of $8.39 billion.
· Net Profit: GAAP net profit of $6.90 billion, a remarkable turnaround from a net loss of $23 million in the same period last year.
· Earnings Per Share: Adjusted EPS of $39.25, up 135 times year-over-year, exceeding analyst expectations by over 10%.
· Gross Margin: Adjusted gross margin reached 84.6%, far above 26.4% a year ago.
📈 Growth Drivers: AI-Driven and Business Structure Transformation
The core growth driver comes from AI-driven data center demand:
· Data Center Business: Revenue of $2.98 billion, up 1298% (nearly 13 times), becoming a key growth pillar.
· Price and Volume: About one-third of revenue growth came from volume increase, two-thirds from price hikes, reflecting tight NAND market supply.
· Long-Term Contracts Locked: Signed long-term supply agreements with 8 customers, with minimum contract revenue of $93.9 billion, locking in about half of shipments for the coming years.
🔄 Buyback Plan: $14 Billion Shows Confidence
The board approved an additional $14 billion stock repurchase authorization, bringing the total remaining authorization to $15.5 billion. Considering the company's market cap after a significant pullback, this scale is considerable and a strong signal of management's confidence in cash flow and current stock price.
📉 Why the Market Isn't Buying It? — "Perfect Past" Can't Beat "Not Impressive Enough Future"
Despite the earnings beat and huge buyback announcement, SanDisk's stock fell more than 8% in after-hours trading. The core reason is the market's extremely high expectations for the AI storage leader, which the guidance failed to meet:
· Next Quarter Revenue Guidance: $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, midpoint $10.55 billion, slightly below market expectations of $10.8 billion.
· Gross Margin Guidance: 83%-85%, roughly flat quarter-over-quarter, raising concerns about peak profitability.
💡 Summary: Short-Term Expectation Battles vs. Mid-to-Long-Term Logic Established
SanDisk's case shows that in the AI wave, even explosive growth in results can lead to sharp stock corrections if future guidance fails to continuously exceed already sky-high market expectations. But over a longer horizon, AI-driven NAND demand, transformation of the data center business, and massive buybacks form a solid foundation for mid-to-long-term value. Current stock price volatility is more a short-term "expectation gap" battle rather than a fundamental problem.For a company valued at nearly a trillion dollars, the real test isn't going public, but whether it can continue to prove its value after going public. This question is just beginning for SpaceX.
In recent years, SpaceX has been the most unique player in the private market. Unlike traditional aerospace companies that rely on government orders to survive, nor does it rely on software scaling for growth like internet companies, it relies on a highly imaginative business closed loop: reducing launch costs through rocket reuse, then building global satellite internet services with Starlink, ultimately transforming space from a high-cost industry into a commercially viable platform.
Therefore, the market is willing to give SpaceX an extremely high valuation, not buying current profits, but its potential over the next decade.
But after going public, the logic starts to change.
Previously, investors only needed to trust Musk's vision; now the market is focusing on earnings reports and asking: How much revenue can Starlink actually contribute? When will the rocket business be able to reduce losses? When will Starship's continued massive investment be converted into commercial value?
This is also why SpaceX's latest financial report is showing mixed results.
On the bright side, Starlink remains the company's most important growth engine. Satellite internet is turning from a concept into a real business, with user growth, enterprise clients, and global coverage all continually validating its commercial value.
But the other side is clear: SpaceX is still a high-investment company. Starship R&D, launch infrastructure construction, and satellite deployment all require continuous heavy investment. For a company with such a high valuation, the market won't just look at growth stories, but will increasingly focus on the gap between investment and return.
The biggest variable next is the unlock.
In the past, many investors bought SpaceX because they believed it would become a company that would change the aerospace industry in the future. But as early investors and employee stock ownership companies gradually became tradable, the market faced a real problem for the first time:
Those who believed in SpaceX early were still willing to hold onto it when they could sell.
If a large number of early shareholders choose to continue locking their shares, it shows the market still has confidence in SpaceX's future growth; But if there is significant selling pressure after the lock-up is lifted, short-term valuations may be affected.
However, I don't think unlocking is SpaceX's biggest risk.
The real question is:
Can Starlink support the valuation of a trillion-dollar company?
Rocket reuse is impressive, Starship is imaginative, but the capital market will not pay only for dreams. In the long run, what SpaceX needs to prove is that it can not only reduce the cost of entering space, but also create a new industry that continuously generates cash flow.
This is also a common challenge for many great companies.
From zero to one, it's all about vision.
From 1 to 100, it depends on the business model.
SpaceX has already proven it can transform the space industry, but the next thing to prove is whether it can truly become a super-commercial company in the truest sense.
Listing is not the end.
Lifting the ban is not the end.
What truly determines SpaceX's future valuation is whether Starlink can become the next global infrastructure.
Rockets determine how high SpaceX can fly, and cash flow determines how far it can go.
DYOR。 $SPCX This time may not be a "bear market replication," but rather "repricing after a bull market."
The biggest disagreement for many people now is:
Is 126K the top of this bull market?
If the answer is "yes," then the bear market model should now be used
But if the answer is "uncertain," then this adjustment might be closer to:
A deep valuation correction in a long-term bull market, rather than a full bear market
The underlying logic for these two models is completely different
1. First, look at market participants: Previously, retail investors were fleeing; now it's more about capital reallocation
End of 2021 to 2022:
Leveraged funds dominate
Luna, Three Arrows, and FTX have all suffered consecutive blowups
Exchange credit crisis
A large number of institutions were forced to liquidate
The essence of BTC's decline at that time was:
The collapse of the market credit system → liquidity death → passive selling
So the price can quickly drop to 15K
But now:
ETF holdings have become a key variable
Institutions are not simply trading; they are allocating assets
Long-term capital costs and holding cycles are longer
Therefore, if this round continues to decline, it may not be like the "stampede death" seen in 2022
More likely:
Buying at high levels gradually loses patience → slowly reduces positions→ the market is bottoming out for a long time
This means:
Time may be more important than space
2. What really needs to be observed is not how much BTC has dropped, but who is selling
Many people read:
126K → 58K
I feel like it's dropped a lot.
But the real market problem is:
How many people are still waiting to break free?
At the top of a bull market, there are usually a lot of:
80K buy-in
People chasing gains with 100K
Those who entered at the high ETF level
The psychological paths of these people generally are:
Stage one: just a normal pullback; stage two: a drop just in time to add stock. Stage Three: When will you break even? Stage Four: Finally break even, sell first
So many bottoms are not because no one is bearish, but because:
Holders have shifted from hoping for a price increase to simply wanting to exit
If a large number of trapped positions are released near 70K, the rebound will continue to fail
3. There may be a different bottom structure in this round
Previous round:
69K
↓
50K
↓
30K
↓
15K
This round:
126K
↓
80K
↓
58K
↕
52K to 70K oscillation
↓
Finally, confirm the bottom
Causes:
ETFs have changed the market structure
Previously:
Price determines capital
Now:
Cash flow determines price
If ETFs continue to see net outflows, BTC may slowly seek a new balance
If ETFs see net inflows again, even with a moderate macro environment, the adjustment may end early
4. The key is not the lowest point, but the market regaining acceptance of high valuations
A question that's easy to overlook:
BTC rose from 15K to 126K, an increase of more than 8 times
The market needs to re-answer:
Who are the long-term buyers for BTC over $100,000?
Previous answer:
Retail investors, traders, crypto-native funds
Now it is necessary to add:
ETF funds, family offices, corporate asset allocation, sovereign funds
If this capital is insufficient to support prices above 100K, then 126K may just be a temporary overheating
If these funds continue to flow in, then around 60K may already be the institutional reallocation zone
5. I will focus on three "psychological prices," not three support levels
Level 1: 70K, which is the confidence line
Standing back on foot:
The market believes the correction is over, bears are retreating, and ETF funds are likely to flow back in
70K isn't a technical level, but more like a psychological turning point
Second layer: 55K
This is a value revaluation area
If it falls here:
Many long-term funds will be recalculated:
"Is BTC's value worth investing in over the next five years?"
Here, the decision is:
Are there any new buyers?
Third floor: Around 45K
This is not an ordinary adjustment
If it reaches this point, it means additional events have occurred in the market:
For example:
US stocks have entered a clear bear market, liquidity is tightening, ETF funding structure has deteriorated, and macro risks have expanded
Otherwise, a simple cyclical correction would require stronger catalysts to fall to 45K
My new perspective summarizes:
This round can't be simply asked:
"Will it replicate 2022?"
You should ask:
"After 126K, has BTC completed its valuation shift from speculative assets to institutional assets?"
If not completed:
126K may be the top of the bubble and will need more time to reprice.
If you are finishing:
So now may not be the early stage of a bear market, but rather a major turnover in the middle of a bull market
Therefore, the most important signal in the coming months is not the lowest price, but rather:
1. Whether ETF funds have resumed stable inflows
2. Whether a valid deal can be formed above 70K
3. Whether long-term holders have started increasing their positions
4. Is the market shifting from "waiting for a surge" to "accepting a slow bull run"?
The real bottom is often not formed when everyone is pessimistic, but rather when the market discovers:
Gains don't happen immediately, but declines are becoming increasingly difficult
$BTC Sandisk just crushed Q4… and still got sold off 📉
Revenue: $8.97B
Adjusted EPS: $39.25
Another $14B buyback authorized
All strong.
But softer Q1 guidance was enough to push the stock lower after hours.
AI storage demand is clearly real. The market is now asking whether NAND pricing and high-bandwidth flash growth can keep supporting the valuation.
Big beat + big buyback ≠ automatic green candle when expectations are this high.
$SNDK
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck SanDisk's earnings report both beat expectations—what signals does the $14 billion buyback send?
SanDisk's latest earnings report exceeded market expectations, and it announced an additional $14 billion share buyback authorization.
After this news was announced, the market once again focused on the storage industry chain.
Many people see this:
Performance growth + large-scale buybacks.
But what's even more worth pondering:
Why would the company dare to invest such a large amount of funds in a buyback at this stage?
1. The financial report beats expectations, indicating that storage cycles are improving
In recent years, the storage industry has undergone a round of deep adjustments.
Due to supply-demand imbalances and increased inventory pressure, storage companies like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have all experienced cyclical downturns.
However, as the AI industry rapidly develops, market logic is changing.
AI server and data center construction continue to increase demand for high-performance storage.
Especially:
• Recovery in demand for high-end NAND;
• Growth in enterprise-level storage demand;
• Increased investment in AI infrastructure.
This means the storage industry is gradually moving from the past "price competition" to a "demand-driven" stage.
2. Why is the $14 billion buyback important?
Large-scale buybacks usually send several signals:
First, the company's management believes the current valuation is attractive.
If a company believes future growth potential is limited, it generally will not choose large-scale buybacks.
Second, buybacks can reduce the number of shares circulating in the market and increase earnings per share.
Third, it also signals confidence to the market:
The company believes that future cash flow and profitability will support long-term development.
3. The AI wave is redefining the value of storage
In the past, the market focused more on AI:
GPU。
Chips.
Server.
But as AI scales up, the market is gradually discovering:
AI requires not only computing power but also storage.
Training, inference, and transmission of massive amounts of data all require stronger storage infrastructure.
Therefore, the future competition in the AI industry chain will not be limited to computing power companies like Nvidia.
Storage, networking, power, and data centers may also become long-term beneficiaries.
4. However, short-term risks need to be considered
Although fundamentals have improved, the storage sector has seen significant gains previously.
The market has already traded in part of the AI demand expectations in advance.
Therefore, in the short term, attention should still be paid to:
• Whether the valuation is excessive;
• Whether AI capital expenditure is sustained;
• Can the rise in storage prices continue?
A strong industry doesn't mean the stock will always rise.
Ultimately, price still needs to deliver on performance.
SanDisk's earnings exceeded expectations and the $14 billion buyback essentially reflect market confidence in the recovery of memory cycles and demand for AI infrastructure. In the short term, the sector may continue to be driven by sentiment; In the long run, what truly determines value is whether storage demand in the AI era can continue to grow.
This round of AI rally has shifted from simply speculating on computing power to spreading throughout the entire infrastructure chain.
The future market may not focus solely on "who manufactures GPUs," but rather:
Who can provide complete infrastructure for the AI era? $BTC #闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added $CORE Bitcoin Power Grid is the vision and positioning proposed by Core DAO, likening Core Network to Bitcoin's "power grid."
Core analogy
Core officially uses the history of power development as an analogy:
- Early Bitcoin was like primitive electricity—huge potential but limited usage.
- Bitcoin Staking and BTCFi act like "light bulbs"—productizing Bitcoin's value to create scenarios that generate yields.
- What truly makes electricity accessible and generates huge commercial value is the power grid. Core now aims to become Bitcoin's power grid: providing composable infrastructure to "access" various BTCFi products, protocols, and applications, distributing Bitcoin's security and value at scale, and generating ongoing revenue.
Specific meaning
- Bitcoin as an energy source: through the Satoshi Plus consensus (combining Bitcoin hashrate, non-custodial BTC staking, and CORE staking), Core achieves extremely high security (with about 75%-90% of Bitcoin hashrate participating).
- The Core is the power grid: providing composable DeFi rails, staking systems, liquidity, and other infrastructure, enabling developers and protocols to build yield products, payments, enterprise solutions, and more after integration.
- CORE token is the access cost/key: Any protocol wishing to access this Bitcoin infrastructure (staking yields, users, liquidity, DeFi tracks, etc.) must use CORE. Income generated from activities flows back into CORE (via gas consumption, yield reinvestment, buyback, etc.), forming a closed loop.
Simply put, Core is no longer just a "product that provides Bitcoin yields," but aims to become the underlying power infrastructure of BTCFi, enabling more products and users to access it to generate economies of scale and real income.
Key Directions for 2026 (Officially Mentioned)
- Yield products and LSTs (liquid staking tokens): Stacking strategies on top of base staking yields, generating fees and driving CORE demand.
- New banking/payment scenarios like SatPay: Using yield-yield BTC/LST as collateral for lending and consumption, while maintaining yields, with transactions occurring on the Core.
- Enterprise solutions: providing Bitcoin-native yield engines, collateral, and liquidity infrastructure for banks, custodians, and others.
The overall flywheel logic is:
More product/user access → more usage and revenue → more CORE demand and buybacks → stronger revenue and adoption.
This is the next phase positioning officially announced by Core at the end of 2025 ("Core's Next Chapter: The Bitcoin Power Grid"), emphasizing a shift from "proof-of-concept/yield display" to "platform monetization and revenue-driven." If you are interested in specific mechanisms, staking, SatPay, or the latest developments, feel free to ask. $CORE $BTC 。
Repost...Circle's latest financial report released on August 6, 2026, along with its deep bet on Arc (Circle Institutional-Grade Cross-Chain Interoperability Standard). Below is an analysis and market performance statistics of related high-volatility coins.
1. Circle Financial Report and Arc Bet: A New Growth Script for USDC
In its Q2 FY2026 financial report, Circle's interest income exceeded expectations due to the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, but the key highlight is its official elevation of Arc as a core corporate strategy.
1. Arc's underlying logic: Arc aims to provide banks and large asset management institutions with a one-click "fiat-to-stablecoin-RWA" conversion gateway. Through Arc, institutions can bypass complex public mempools and directly mint and burn USDC in a compliant environment.
2. USDC's Growth Turning Point:
*Compliance premium: With the full implementation of the EU MiCA Act, USDC's market share in Europe has soared from 18% to 34%.
*Lubricant for RWA: The implementation of Arc solves the "last mile" problem for on-chain settlement by giants like BlackRock. If Arc can integrate the Visa/Western Union scenario mentioned today, USDC issuance is expected to exceed $80 billion in Q4 2026, challenging USDT's dominance.
3. Conclusion: Circle is transforming from a "stablecoin issuer" into an "on-chain settlement infrastructure." Arc's success will directly drive demand for $LINK (oracle) and $SOL (settlement layer).
Today's high-volatility coin data dashboard (2026.08.06)
[1] $ENA (Ethena)
● Today's price: $1.3210
● Today's Change: +22.10%
● Past 7/30 days: +15.8% / +12.4%
● Main cause of abnormal movement: 40 million large pledges triggered by circulating board depletion.
[2] $AKT (Akash Network)
● Today's price: $6.1200
● Today's Change: +14.80%
● Past 7/30 days: +26.3% / +41.2%
● Main reason for the abnormal movement: AI computing power stocks rose in response to the recovery of US energy stocks.
[3] $RNDR (Render)
● Today's price: $12.4500
● Today's Change: +12.20%
● Past 7/30 days: +8.5% / +14.7%
● Main reasons for the change: Nvidia's industry chain resilience and AI visual storytelling support.
[4] $SOL (Solana)
● Today's price: $73.2800
● Today's Change: -0.84%
● Past 7/30 days: +5.2% / +18.4%
● Main reason for the movement: Circle Arc officially announced it as the preferred settlement chain, with strong resistance to declines.
[5] $LINK (Chainlink)
● Today's price: $8.0950
● Today's Change: -0.81%
● Past 7/30 days: +3.1% / +7.5%
● Main reason for the movement: Arc's cross-chain technology foundation position was established, leading to increased institutional holdings.
[6] $XRP (Ripple)
● Today's price: $1.0442
● Today's Change: -1.57%
● Past 7/30 days: -1.58% / -2.80%
● Main reason for the change: Payment sector funds flowed to the more certain USDC system.
[7] $XLM (Stellar)
● Today's price: $0.1601
● Today's Change: -3.45%
● Past 7/30 days: +12.5% / +4.20%
● Main reason for the abnormal movement: Western Union's positive news has exhausted, and funds have returned to the mainstream.
[8] $FIL (Filecoin)
● Today's price: $8.9200
● Today's Change: -10.70%
● Last 7/30 days: -5.4% / +21.5%
● Main reason for the abnormal movement: Dragged down by the sharp drop in SNDK (-11%), the storage sector pulled back.
[9] $SNDK (SanDisk RWA)
● Today's price: $1,198.0
● Today's Change: -11.00%
● Last 7/30 days: +20.4% / +469%
● Main reason for abnormal movements: Earnings guidance fell short of expectations, large institutions took profits.
[10] $AR (Arweave)
● Today's price: $45.8800
● Today's Change: -12.20%
● Past 7/30 days: -8.4% / +48.7%
● Main reason for the abnormal movement: weakening storage hardware logic, retesting the key support at $45.
Note: The market in August 2026 will be characterized by "extreme polarization of the targets." Do not chase meme coins without underlying positive support; instead, closely follow the "infrastructure trading mainline" with real business growth such as Circle, Visa, and SNDK.
#Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth? $BTC $ETH $MSTR Many believe the biggest reasons for losses in crypto are buying at high prices, chasing gains and selling lows, or experiencing sudden market crashes. But what truly causes a large amount of retail funds to shrink is not necessarily a large bearish candlestick with a rapid decline, but rather the long-term chip pressure that is overlooked during the market rebound. This pressure does not appear instantly like a black swan event; instead, it gradually erodes market confidence over several months or even longer, through repeated rebounds and corrections. The most easily overlooked risk is—token unlocking. The current market cannot be simply defined as the bottom of a bear market. Although $BTC remains the core liquidity indicator of the entire crypto market, and some popular sectors such as AI, RWA, DePIN, L2, and public chain ecosystems continue to see phased opportunities, the overall capital environment still differs significantly from the true bull market cycle. Now, what is more common is one thing: BTC is oscillating strongly, hotspots are rotating upward, some altcoins are exploding, but overall capital has not fully returned. In this environment, the impact of token unlocking is often more pronounced than in the early stages of a bull market. The reason is simple: a bull market has continuously injected funds, allowing it to absorb the chips released by the market, whereas during a bear market rebound, the biggest feature of the market is limited liquidity. When a large number of low-cost chips enter the market, if there is not enough new capital to take over, prices will naturally be continuously suppressed. Many projects' early price increases do not fully represent strong market demand. Especially in the early stages of new projects: team hedging;Looking at this chart, my first impression isn't that the bull market is hot, but that money is still circulating in the $BTC. The total market cap is stuck around 2.2 trillion, with no obvious volume increase; $BTC market cap is 1.29 trillion, accounting for 58.81%, still dominant; ETH has returned to 1915, but its market cap is only around 230 billion, still gaping with BTC.
The meaning is simple: right now $BTC is holding the market up, ETH is repairing, and altcoins haven't really received any money yet. Market sentiment looks good, with a fear and greed index of 39, which is cautious; But the style shift hasn't happened yet. What really makes me more optimistic isn't BTC rising a bit, but that BTC's share is starting to drop, ETH is taking over, and funds are expanding outward. Right now, this market seems more like "stabilize first, then talk about other things." In July 2026, Filecoin proposed Solstice (FIP-0118 draft), aiming to make the most significant adjustment to the network reward system since its launch on the independent network. The core direction is to abolish the Fil+ verification system and direct some block rewards directly to the service layer driving paying customers and data on-chain, building a "service economy." This report analyzes the technical economy from three dimensions: mechanism design, governance architecture, and expected impact. I. Background of the Proposal Although the Fil+ system effectively guided "useful data" on-chain, it gradually exposed issues such as weakened verification signals, high operational overhead, and room for competition. Meanwhile, the network already has Onchain Cloud and paid transaction infrastructure, urgently shifting incentives from "pure storage capacity" to "real paid usage." Solstice is a systematic response to this need. II. Core Mechanism Design 1. Cancellation of Fil+ layering • All new sectors receive consensus rewards equally according to their committed storage capacity, with no distinction between Verified/Unverified. • Existing sectors retain their original rights and terms to ensure a smooth transition. 2. Reward Stream-Sharing Mechanism • Block rewards are split into Consensus Stream and Service Stream. • At launch: Consensus Stream 95%, Service Stream 5%. • For the next nine quarters, if onchain fil is used quarterly📉 $SNDKB (SanDisk tokenized stock) plunged after today's earnings report, down 7.6% in 24h, with a turnover of $131 million, making it the only main stock-driven stock with increased volume and a sharp decline.
📊 Current price is 1288.95, 24h interval is 1166.45 → 1429.37. After hitting 1166 intraday, a long lower shadow rebounded today, but after 30 days, it has dropped 46% cumulatively, halved from its all-time high. The daily RSI is only 44, and the medium-term bearish structure remains intact.
💡 Recommendation logic: It follows the stock market of US stocks SNDK rather than crypto narratives. The CEO indicated that PC/smartphone shipments will slow in 2026 and NAND demand will only recover next year. Negative fundamentals have taken effect. Today's rebound is an oversold rebound rather than a reversal; a pullback to Fibonacci resistance is a bearish point.
⚠️ Risk warning: During the US stock market closed (Beijing time 04:00 - 21:30), liquidity of the target drops sharply, with a significant amplitude of insertion. Do not place full positions during the night session; At the same time, it is directly driven by financial reports and macro data, so don't treat it as an ordinary altcoin.
📈 Futures Trading Plan (Rebound Short Selling)
Entry: 1300 - 1350, rebound 38.2%-50%. Build positions in batches within the Fibonacci range, no short chase
Stop loss: 1372, holding above 61.8%. A pullback of 1361.6 is considered a reversal
Take profit at 1:1170, support at today's low, level half first
Take profit at 2:1080, at the upper edge of the 1027-1120 intensive trading range at the end of July#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
$SNDK Grid is the only way to play this kind of up-and-down trading cycle.
My SanDisk grid cost was 1391, previously dropped to 1167, broke below the lower edge of the range at 1219, then rebounded, now priced at 1312. When the floating loss hit 30 points, I was a bit nervous, but since it hadn't broken strong parity and the grid was still running, I didn't move. Now the grid yields 26U, total returns have turned positive to +5U, and it's back to life.
This roller coaster has long been left behind in the directional order, but the grid can still withstand fluctuations. Arbitrage when prices rise, buy when prices fall; as long as the range doesn't break, keep trading.
South Korean officials came out yesterday to call for accelerated chip investment, showing that the government is also anxious. Samsung $SAMSUNG and $SKHYNIX SK hynix fell sharply today, but long-term storage demand remained unchanged; the market sentiment was just too negative in the short term. I'm not betting on SanDisk to rebound immediately; I'm betting it can hold within this range. Grid alone doesn't need direction, but volatility. As long as the price fluctuates between 1219 and 1490, grid trading can make a profit. If it falls to 1167 but still doesn't break strong parity, then keep holding.
I've been busy lately, so I started with the grid and ran around. I don't have to watch the market every day, which is worry-free.$SNDK, SanDisk tokenized shares on Solana.
At the core is the logic of AI storage chips. The data center business has exploded, with a sharp rise before, but recently the correction has been significant.
On-chain trading is possible 24 hours a day, without waiting for US stocks to open—this is the biggest feature of RWA tokenized stocks.
But it's important to clarify: tokens only reflect the price, not directly hold US stocks, rely on platform custody, and carry platform compliance risks.
The current contradiction: the storage industry cycles upward, but valuations are already maxed out. If guidance falls short of expectations, it's easy for positive news to be realized and dumped.
On-chain liquidity varies greatly, causing significant slippage, making it unsuitable for high-leverage aggressive surges.
The RWA narrative is beautiful, but tokenized stocks are still in their early stages, and the risks cannot be ignored.
#闪迪财报双超预期, $14 billion new buyback authorization #Western Union chose Solana to liquidate its USDPT stablecoin, injecting traditional financial flows on-chain, but high macro Fed interest rates and risk appetite in the U.S. stock market still exert short-term pressure on $SOL valuations.
The Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate remains high, suppressing dollar liquidity. U.S. tech stocks are volatile at high levels, making capital more inclined toward certainty and safe havens. Changes in gold and U.S. Treasury yields directly dominate the pricing benchmarks for risk assets. Against this backdrop, Xilian connects 175 million merchants and 37 markets worldwide, reducing the average cost of traditional remittances from 6.35% to below 1%, amplifying the support for network valuation from real on-chain settlement demand.
The priorities for drivers are: changes in global dollar liquidity driven by Federal Reserve monetary policy, the preference for risk assets in the U.S. tech sector, the progress of Western Union's expansion from 37 markets to over 60 markets, and on-chain network throughput stability.
The upside scenario is based on rising expectations of Fed rate cuts and continued risk appetite in U.S. stocks, which drives capital from safe-haven assets like gold into the crypto market. If Western Union's annualized settlement volume of $107 billion and 285 million transactions successfully migrate on-chain, it will trigger a surge in system liquidation frequency, verifying the effect of high-frequency real consumption on token value.
The variable to watch in the upside scenario is the extent of the decline in Treasury yields and the pace at which the stablecoin will cover 60 markets by year-end. Once on-chain transactions experience congestion, delays, or fee fluctuations, the weakened cost advantage will cause the upside scenario to fail.
The downside scenario triggers the Fed's delayed rate cuts, triggering a rebound in the US dollar index, a phased correction in US stocks, and attracting capital back to US Treasuries and gold. At the same time, if regulatory policies impose restrictions on cross-border clearing on the bank side, it will suppress the entry of traditional financial funds.
The variables to watch in the downside scenario are the Fed's policy statements and the actual conversion rate of 100 million potential remittance users. If on-chain stablecoin payments maintain zero faults and high-frequency usage breaks the forecast range, the bearish downside logic will be forcibly corrected.
Over the next 7 days, focus on the relationship between U.S. Treasury yield trends and the number of active addresses on $SOL chains.
#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization #Polymarket洽谈10亿美元融资 was added, with a valuation exceeding $20 billionBTC low-volume fear—why isn't money coming in? My short positions are waiting for a rebound
BTC held firm at 64,774 dollars, 24-hour trading volume halved by 96.6%, and no one in the market was willing to take over.
Fear level 25 is there, indicating that big funds are still on the look, preferring to lie down rather than enter.
The funding rate is only 0.005%, with almost zero cost for bulls, but with volume dropping to zero, no one dares to leverage it.
OKX rose 4 times and fell 10, with ETH barely holding at +2.06%, while the rest of the coins simply sat flat.
The US stock tokenization sector rose 1 and fell 4, averaging -2.46%. XSNDK plunged 7.79%, directly crushing 3X short positions.
Money didn't go into BTC, but sporadically flowed into XSOX +4.11%, with semiconductor 3x long positions sucking up the profits.
I'm currently short XSPCX @109.68, currently down 1.40%, TP 101.78/SL 114.07, waiting for a rebound before buying shorts.
Meanwhile, short GRVT @ 0.28417, with a floating loss of 1.47%, TP 0.2637/SL 0.2955, down 14.1% in 24 hours, still waiting for a rebound.
The last trade was because I TP ahead of time before a rebound and was killed in return. This time, I waited for the funding rate to rise before making a move.
This wave of low-volume fears is likely that smart money will be the first to harvest tokenized US stocks, waiting for BTC OI liquidations before making a comeback.
Chives, should I keep holding fast or shorting with me? **Previously, when trading crypto, you could say macroeconomics was not necessary. Now, trading US stocks, macro is an unavoidable concept.
Macro determines whether the money in your hands is expensive or cheap, deciding how much valuation multiples investors are willing to pay, while the company's fundamentals determine whether you should pay for the current valuation or whether the market is willing to support the current valuation with price.
Since the Q2 earnings season began, we can clearly verify this logic. Despite strong corporate earnings, some stock prices still fell. Although this may be due to a lack of future guidance in the earnings reports, the core reason is that the money in hand is too expensive, and investors are unwilling to pay for the current valuation.
Therefore, to support better valuations in the future, besides the company's own efforts, macro conditions must make money cheaper, meaning lower interest rates.
This week's focus is on employment data. The market is watching whether this employment report can change the Fed's hawkish high interest rate policy. As of yesterday, data on June job openings, July small nonfarm payrolls, and ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI have been released.
Overall, the data so far suggests the US is experiencing a typical combination of strong economic demand + reduced corporate hiring + rising cost pressures. Especially yesterday's non-manufacturing PMI price index increase indicates inflationary pressure remains.
Within this data set, weakening employment could soften the Fed's hawkish high interest rate stance, but since price pressures persist, it remains difficult to shake or reverse the Fed's policy. The key point will be tomorrow's major nonfarm payrolls.
If macro conditions cannot make the money in our hands cheaper, then the current market valuation ceiling is a potential constraint. Especially now that the Q2 earnings season is underway and leading companies have reported, the market is more stringent on earnings, and with money remaining expensive, this leads to reluctance to spend to support current valuations! #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权