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$SNDK SanDisk & $WDC Western Digital Financial Reports Analysis
SanDisk SNDK provided an answer after the close: the performance figures themselves were qualified, but the guidance for further price increases for NAND flash memory was clearly below the market's previous optimistic expectations, directly triggering a large-scale capital flight and a sharp after-hours sell-off.
Western Digital (WDC), also in the same track, also disclosed its financial report, showing that the two companies' businesses overlap significantly, so looking at it together reveals the true state of the storage sector.
Both companies' earnings reports are signaling the same thing
1. Current revenue and gross margin are still acceptable
The spot NAND price increase has already been reflected in this quarter's financial report, with no data explosions on paper, meeting market expectations.
2. What truly sells the market is the future guidance
Both management teams have been conservative about the scale and pace of upcoming NAND price increases.
Previously, the market speculated on the storage boom, betting on flash memory prices to continue rising rapidly. Now that expectations have been lowered, it means the most important logic behind this round of rally has been weakened.
3. AI enterprise-grade SSD business remains the only highlight
Demand for data centers and AI server storage is indeed growing, but short-term incremental growth is insufficient to offset the weakness on the consumer side and cannot support the high stock price premiums seen earlier. 冰火两重天：存储三剑客深夜杀跌，比特币以太坊逆势走强
北京时间8月6日凌晨，全球资本市场呈现罕见的分化格局——存储芯片三巨头集体重挫，而比特币与以太坊却逆势走高。
存储芯片：业绩越好，跌得越狠
周三（8月5日）美股交易时段，存储芯片与硬件供应链指数收跌2.87%。成分股中，闪迪收跌5.4%，西部数据跌5.36%，SK海力士ADR跌2.17%。盘后跌势加剧——闪迪$SNDK 盘后一度跌超4%，美光、SK海力士$SKHYNIX 盘后均跌超6%。此后跌幅持续扩大，闪迪盘中暴跌逾11%，美光跌超7%，SK海力士ADR跌逾7%。
令人困惑的是，闪迪2026财年第四季度营收同比暴增372%至89.7亿美元，调整后每股收益达39.25美元，为一年前的135倍。SK海力士单季利润更是爆发式增长12倍。然而，闪迪下一财季营收指引（103亿至108亿美元）低于分析师预期的111.6亿美元——“超预期的过去”未能抵消“略低于预期的未来”。
更深层次的担忧来自三方面：其一，闪迪主营的NAND Flash竞争格局日益分散，中国长江存储已占据约13%市场份额；其二，1TB固态硬盘从约45美元涨至近90美元，消费者“买不起”情绪蔓延；其三，三星与SK海力士合计支出计划高达1.3万亿美元用于新产能扩张，市场担忧供给过剩。
加密货币：逆势突围
与存储芯片的寒意形成鲜明对比，加密货币市场暖意融融。8月6日凌晨4时21分，比特币一度升破65000美元，24小时涨幅约1.5%。以太坊$ETH 同步走强，突破1900美元关口。
冰与火的逻辑关联
表面看，这是两个独立的市场叙事。但深层逻辑存在微妙关联：AI交易拥挤度持续上升，DRAM ETF自6月中旬高点已回落约25%，部分资金正从过热的人工智能硬件板块撤出。与此同时，地缘政治局势缓和、美债收益率走软、美元走弱等因素改善了风险偏好，为数字资产提供了支撑。
一边是AI存储龙头业绩亮眼却股价重挫，一边是比特币以太坊悄然走强。这场冰与火的较量，折射出资本市场在AI狂热后的冷静反思与资金再平衡——当“确定性”变得拥挤，资金开始寻找新的叙事方向。
没想到美光上篇文章发出刚说全部出清了，然后市场就开始暴跌了🤔
#标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高
#闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ $BTC 1. Since the beginning of August, all U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows for six consecutive trading days, with no single day of overall cash withdrawal.
Top institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity are the main players, spending real money every day to subscribe to ETFs. Once funds get their money, they go to the secondary market to buy BTC and hoard coins, with on-chain wallet records showing purchase volumes.
2. In late July, there were still intermittent large-scale redemptions and injecting coins outward; From early August, the market completely reversed, with institutions stopping and taking over in batches, just enough to keep BTC firmly above 64,000 without a deep decline.
Simply put: it's not retail investors blindly pushing the market, but legitimate big funds entering to support the market.
$BTC 1. Institutions place orders based on news, not stubborn bulls
They now dare to buy slowly because the ADP employment data was disappointing, betting on the Fed's subsequent rate cuts.
If Friday's nonfarm payroll data is especially good and it's clear there won't be a rate cut, these institutions will immediately stop buying, redeem ETFs, and sell off the 64,000 yuan support.
2. Now you buy in batches and small orders slowly, not just go all-in
There is a moderate net inflow every day, without aggressive buying and selling, so the price will only stabilize and fluctuate, rather than surging directly to break previous highs. Large funds are also waiting for non-farm payrolls to settle, and are hesitant to heavily invest in the market. 韩国市场最近释放了一个不容忽视的信号，曾经最活跃的杠杆ETF产品成交额较峰值缩水近九成，波动率同步收窄。表面看是交易热度降温，深层次的逻辑是散户资金正在从追逐波动转向等待确定性。这种情绪变化不会只停留在股市，它正在传导至全球风险资产，加密市场同样被裹挟其中。 过去几年韩国散户是加密市场的重要推手，AI行情和半导体热潮中杠杆产品被疯狂买入，因为上涨时放大收益的诱惑太直接。但杠杆交易的特点就是放大利润的同时也放大犹豫，当成交量骤降，说明市场参与者已经开始主动降低风险敞口，不再愿意为短期弹性支付高溢价。 看当前的加密市场，$BTC在64700美元附近震荡，从资金面逻辑看，ETF和机构配置已经取代散户情绪成为主导变量，但市场关注点已经从还能涨多少，转向资金是否愿意持续进入。$ETH维持在1911美元上方，市场不再满足于生态叙事，开始追问稳定币扩张和RWA场景能否真正沉淀经济价值。$SOL作为高波动代表，依赖低手续费和Meme生态活跃度，恰恰是对资金环境最敏感的资产，一旦风险偏好收缩，它的回撤也会更剧烈。 韩国杠杆ETF成交崩塌背后，是全球资金风格的切换。投资者不再无条件追捧上涨，而是要求盈利兑$SNDK 5U Comeback Plan | Day 4: Those who didn't cut losses at 1490 don't deserve to short at 1269
Yesterday, when SanDisk surged to 1490, I checked my account—unrealized loss -90%, margin almost depleted.
and did not cut it.
It's not that I don't want to sell, it's that I can't—the short position at 1310 was worth $180, and if I did, it would mean a real loss. My 5U principal couldn't withstand such turmoil. But I wasn't holding on. The forced parity price was at 1515, and 1490 was still $25 before liquidation. The market hadn't broken through previous highs with increased volume, the bear structure hadn't broken, and I firmly believed—the market had already consumed a large portion of expectations. As long as the earnings report wasn't an ultimate positive signal, it would definitely fall.
When that needle was pricked down, I shouted in my heart: either blow up the position and exit the circle, or smash it back for me.
Then it really smashed back.
SanDisk's earnings report came out, and the market had already priced in expectations—revenue was in line with expectations, but next quarter's revenue guidance fell short of expectations—this was the final straw that broke the camel's back. Expectations mean negative news; bad outlook means a sharp drop. Wall Street never talks about feelings.
The floating profit went from -90% to +37%, and the account went from barely under 2U back to 7.5U.
This book taught me three things:
1. Strong parity is not just for show; if you calculate it well, you dare to take it;
2. The premise of taking on the bill is that you calculate clearly, not blindly believe it;
3. Financial reports are the sickle, expectations are the scythe's handle, and the real knife is the guide.
I'm still the 5U guy, but I'm no longer the 1490 who cuts losses.
Meanwhile, the $SNDK outlook is temporarily bearish $BTC could exceed 65,000 in the short term
See you in the next battle, 10U. A core issue in the crypto world has long been debated: with idle funds in hand, should you go all in on BTC at once, or split into long-term dollar-cost averaging investments? A large amount of backtesting data shows that the returns of the two strategies differ greatly under different market conditions, capital constraints, and mindsets. Many people have only heard that "a single shuttle in a bull market yields higher returns," but they ignore BTC's characteristics of sharp rises and falls, with large pullbacks between bull and bear markets, blindly taking a one-time heavy position and then being deeply trapped; Others only know how to invest mechanically, missing out on maximum returns when the market continues to rise one-sidedly. Today, combining historical BTC market trends for real-world analysis, we will thoroughly break down the pros and cons of one-time investment versus dollar-cost averaging to provide ordinary people with clear criteria for selection. 1. Comparison of the underlying logic of the two strategies 1. One-time full investment (all-in): Buy all available funds in BTC at the same time, completing the position setup in one go, with 100% of the funds present throughout the process, maximizing the benefits of long-term compounding on the rise. Core advantage: No idle funds, fully capitalizing on the rally; Core risk: Timing risk is fully concentrated. Once you buy and enter a bear market, all your principal will suffer drawdown simultaneously. 2. Installment regular investment (DCA cost averaging): Split the total funds into multiple parts, buy small amounts at fixed times each week or month, position at high and low points simultaneously, and automatically dilute the average price of the overall position. Core advantage: Disperses timing risks, significantly reducing psychological stress; Core shortcomings: Some funds remain idle for a long time during rallies, with overall returns lower than a one-time full position. 2. Comparison of the three major scenarios for clear profit gaps$SNDK SanDisk (SNDK) plunged from 1484 to 1266, not a performance bomb—Q4 revenue of 8.97 billion, Non-GAAP EPS of 39.25, both beating expectations, gross margin of 84.6%, plus 14 billion buybacks; The pitfall comes from next quarter's revenue guidance of 10.3-10.8 billion, slightly below Wall Street's aggressive expectation of 11.16 billion, plus the sharp rise in the first two days of earnings, which has driven all the positive news to sell-off.
Simply put:
The fundamentals aren't bad, it's just that expectations have collapsed; The stock price is not being denied, but being squeezed out of a bubble.
Near 1266, a 7x forward PE isn't considered expensive, but concerns about a high Beta+ cycle peaking remain. In the short term, first look for the 1000-1100 support zone. The next anchor point is the investor day on 8/13. If you want to get in, don't rush in at once; wait in batches until you secure a spot at 1350 before talking. A Summary of Key Global Financial Market Events and Data (August 6) — Positive News Drives BTC Rebound, But Volume Shrinks. Is the Rebound Nearing Its End?
Today, a warning signal appeared in global financial markets: ADP employment data fell far short of expectations, rate cut expectations surged rapidly, and both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 hit new record highs.
The US-Iran agreement is still just a step away from being implemented, with oil prices fluctuating around $76, and the market cautiously pricing ahead of Friday's nonfarm payroll data.
1. US-Iran Negotiations: The framework for the agreement has surfaced, but it is still just one step away from implementation
U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent said the U.S. and Iran could reach an agreement within a day or two to resume navigation to Hormuz; Secretary of State Rubio confirmed negotiations "have made progress but are not complete"; Qatar revealed that the draft agreement has already circulated.
Iran's Foreign Ministry denied resuming direct negotiations but confirmed that it is consulting Oman about security arrangements for the strait.
The first phase of the agreement aims to open navigation, but the nuclear issue is postponed. The core framework is the "Middle Corridor" plan negotiated between Iran and Oman, modeled after the Malacca model, with international voluntary funding to ensure security and no mandatory fees.
Currently, there are three points of contention: right of way, who should yield first, and whether to charge fees.
Meanwhile, merchant ships near Oman were attacked again. There has been no significant improvement in actual shipping flow across the strait, and diplomatic progress has yet to be made.
My interpretation:
The US-Iran negotiations have moved from "verbal statements" to "proposal consultations," and the framework of the agreement has indeed advanced. However, Iran has denied direct negotiations, and actual shipping volume in the strait has not improved, so real risks remain.
Oil prices are fluctuating around $76, with the market caught in a tug-of-war between "diplomatic optimism" and "real risks." With the agreement implemented, oil prices continue to be under pressure and inflation expectations are cooling down; If it fails again, everything could quickly reverse.
2. U.S. Stock Market Performance: Both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 hit new all-time highs, while the optical communications and storage sectors surged
On Tuesday, all three major U.S. stock indexes surged: the Dow rose 1.71% to 54,085 points, hitting a record high, the S&P 500 jumped 1.79% to 7,736 points, and the Nasdaq rose 2.59% to 26,584 points.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged over 7%, with the optical communications and storage sectors collectively surging. Coherent and Mywell Technologies rose over 12%, Intel and SanDisk gained over 10%, Lumentum and SK Hynix rose over 8%, and Micron Technology and AMD gained over 7%.
Palantir's earnings report continued to ferment, rising over 29% on Tuesday to $162.66.
The consecutive sharp drops in oil prices eased inflation concerns, and the market priced in a "lowering inflation" logic. The decline in U.S. Treasury yields pushed risk assets stronger across the board.
ADP data was significantly below expectations, further reinforcing rate cut expectations, and U.S. stocks are enjoying a liquidity narrative of "cooling employment → rebounding in rate cut expectations."
My interpretation: After today's close, memory chip stocks showed mixed results. SanDisk's SNDK plunged 10%, while MU fluctuated around 890, showing divergence. It is highly likely that prices will continue to decline going forward. Although the performance is impressive, expectations are too high!
3. Commodities: Oil prices fluctuated around $76, with geopolitical risk premiums and recession expectations coexisting
WTI crude oil fluctuated around $76 per barrel, with pressure from falling overnight due to positive signals from US-Iran negotiations easing, and oil prices rebounded slightly. After plunging about 12% over two days, Brent crude has temporarily stabilized below $80.
My interpretation:
Oil prices are undergoing a process of "geopolitical premium clearing." The market is pricing in the expectation that "Hormuz will reopen," rather than the fact that "it has already reopened." If the agreement is implemented, oil prices may fall again; if it fails again, the risk of a rebound remains.
4. Cryptocurrency Market: BTC pulled back after breaking through 65,000, with ETFs flowing in for three consecutive days
BTC is currently quoted around 64,700, briefly breaking above the $65,000 mark today, then slightly pulling back to 64,700, consolidating momentum. Technically, the structure is biased toward bullishness, but long interest has shrunk by half, short pressure has not strengthened, and the rebound is nearing its end.
Regarding ETFs, there have been three consecutive days of net inflows, signaling a positive outlook.
On August 5, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of 3,275 BTC (about $211 million), with a cumulative net inflow of 5,565 BTC (about $358 million) over the 7th day. Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of 23,222 ETH on the same day, reversing previous outflows for two consecutive days. ETFs have seen net inflows for three consecutive days, with institutional demand steadily returning.
On the macro data front, ADP far exceeded expectations, and rate cut expectations are heating up rapidly. If the forecast significantly exceeds expectations, the market may reprice.
5. Today's Key Focus
(1) At 20:30 Beijing time, U.S. July Challenger company layoffs, employment data after ADP verification;
(2) Progress in US-Iran negotiations: Qatar says the draft agreement has circulated and is watching whether it will be officially announced on Wednesday;
(3) EIA crude oil inventory report (tonight), which may affect short-term oil price trends.
6. My core judgment
ADP data has rekindled market hope for rate cuts: cooling employment, falling oil prices, and falling US Treasury yields have all contributed to a broad strengthening of risk assets. Both the Dow and S&P 500 hit record highs, with BTC briefly breaking above 65,000.
But as long as the U.S.-Iran agreement is not implemented, the geopolitical premium on oil prices may still return. The framework for the agreement is taking shape, but actual navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz have not improved.
Friday's nonfarm payroll data is the biggest window of market change this week. If the data also weakens, rate cut expectations will continue to strengthen; If the liquidity narrative is significantly better than expected, it may be temporarily interrupted.
Although BTC has already surpassed 64,700, this is a news-driven rebound; the real direction still needs to wait for Friday's nonfarm payroll release.
"Which side will you stand on today?" 》
After BTC broke through 65,000, it pulled back slightly. What do you think will happen next?
A: Hold on to 65,000, push for 65,500-66,000
B: Short-term profit-taking with a pullback to 63,500-64,000
C: Continue to fluctuate within the 64,000-65,000 range, waiting for non-farm payrolls
I'll vote for C first. ADP's dovish bias is positive, but the US-Iran agreement has yet to materialize, and nonfarm payroll data is the real window for market change. BTC is oscillating in the 64,000-65,000 range, digesting and waiting for Friday's direction, which is currently the most likely path.
Which one would you choose? Let me know your judgment and reasons in the comments.Despite the rise in PI prices, the trend is driven by exit from exchanges rather than spot inflows—is this truly sustainable? The volume of PI withdrawals from exchanges is increasing; will this lead to reduced selling pressure, or is it a sign that liquidity shrinkage will increase price volatility? Over the past 24 hours, PI has risen by 2~3%. During the same period, trading volume was tallied at approximately $15.9 million. The net outflow from exchanges was about $341,000, suggesting that large holders are moving their shares to personal wallets rather than for selling purposes. In fact, in the past 30 days, there have been four major transactions exceeding $1 million, and dozens of transactions valued at $100,000~500,000. The market is interpreting this as an accumulation phase. The structural meaning of this trend requires a more sophisticated approach beyond simply price increases. The current rise in PI is closer to a price rediscovery caused by the removal of existing selling barriers rather than new buying inflows. A decrease in exchange balances reduces potential selling volume, increasing the likelihood of a short squeeze, Many people believe the Trump family's recent sale of $BTC is bearish, but one possibility is that they reduced their holdings to meet the Ethics clause, which was the premise of the Clarity Act's passage.
Everyone knows this is the bottom range of BTC's bear market, and the Trump family naturally understands that selling at this time might be a form of "sacrifice."
If the Clarity Act is unexpectedly passed, it could trigger an epic bull market rush.SanDisk explodes: Quarterly revenue surges 372%, gross margin hits 84.6%!
SanDisk has just released its Q4 and full-year results for fiscal year 2026, with several figures that are quite outrageous:
Quarterly revenue was $8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year;
GAAP net profit of $6.9 billion;
Gross margin soared to 84.6%;
Data center business revenue for the quarter was $2.98 billion, a quarter-on-quarter surge of 103%.
More importantly, the company expects revenue to continue growing to $10.3–10.8 billion in the next quarter.
This is no longer just a simple "good performance"—it's a very clear round of price revaluation happening across the entire storage industry.
What exactly happened with 372% revenue growth?
Let's start with the most exciting data.
SanDisk's revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 reached $8.97 billion, up 51% quarter-over-quarter and 372% year-on-year.
But here's a detail worth noting:
Of the month-on-month growth, about one-third came from increased shipments, and two-thirds from price increases.
This statement is actually more important than "revenue growth of 372%."
Because if the main growth comes from shipment volume, it means the company is simply selling more.
But the current situation is: product prices are rising.
This indicates that the demand growth brought by AI has begun to affect the supply-demand relationship across the entire storage industry chain.
Simply put: it used to be "selling a lot." Now, it has gradually become: "Sell more, and even fetch more." "For storage vendors, this cycle often means profit elasticity is astonishing.
The most outrageous thing isn't revenue, but gross margin
SanDisk's GAAP gross margin for the quarter: 84.6%.
This is a month-on-month increase of 6.2 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 58.4 percentage points.
This number is truly terrifying.
Because memory chips themselves are a typical cyclical industry.
In the past, the storage industry often faced situations like this:
Demand drops→ Manufacturers lower prices to grab orders→ Profits are squeezed→ Companies cut production → Inventory drops→ prices rebound.
Now, however, the market seems to be entering a completely different phase.
AI servers, data centers, and high-performance computing continue to increase their demand for storage capacity and performance.
When demand suddenly surges and supply cannot expand in sync:
Prices begin to become the strongest profit amplifier.
This is also why SanDisk's revenue growth has been exaggerated alongside its profit growth.
GAAP net profit for the quarter reached $6.9 billion. In contrast, the same period last year still recorded a loss of $23 million. In just one year, it went from losses to net gains of $6.9 billion in a single quarter.
This is a typical profit elasticity brought by cyclical reversals. The real "engine": the data center business. If I had to pick the most noteworthy figure in this financial report, I would choose: the data center business. SanDisk's data center business revenue in Q4 reached $2.98 billion. Month-on-month growth: 103%. In the same period last year, it was only $213 million. Full-year data center business revenue reached $5.15 billion, a year-on-year increase of 437%. What's behind this? The answer is actually quite simple: AI.
Today's large models are getting larger, and the data generated by training and inference is increasing.
AI servers need more than just GPUs.
It also requires a large amount of high-speed storage, enterprise-grade SSDs, and supporting data infrastructure.
In other words:
In the past, when the market discussed AI, the first reaction was GPU.
But as AI infrastructure continues to expand, the industry chain is spreading in a broader direction:
GPUs→ servers, → networks→ memory→ SSDs, → data centers.
SanDisk happens to occupy a key position in this industry chain.
04 Another signal: The company is starting a "frenzy of buybacks"
There's another interesting detail.
SanDisk's Q4 Common Share Repurchase:
4.52 billion USD.
At the same time, the board approved the following additions:
A $14 billion share repurchase program.
Bringing the remaining repurchase authorization to $15.5 billion.
Why would a company suddenly be willing to spend so much money to buy back stocks?
A direct explanation is that management is confident in future cash flow and profitability.
Of course, buybacks do not necessarily mean the stock price will rise.
But from a capital allocation perspective, when a company has substantial cash flow and finds its own stock attractive, buybacks are often a very clear signal.
SanDisk's operating cash flow this quarter has already reached $7.13 billion. Cash flow from operating activities for the full year: $11.67 billion.
This means SanDisk is no longer the storage company with volatile profits it once was, but a company with very strong cash generation capabilities in the current cycle.
What's even more alarming is that this may not be over yet. Many people seeing a 372% year-on-year increase might react first: "After such a big increase, has it already peaked?" "This is precisely the issue that is most worth discussing right now.
Because the company's guidance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 is: revenue of $10.3 billion–$10.8 billion. In other words, revenue may continue to hit new highs next quarter. At the same time, the company expects GAAP gross margin: 83.0%—84.9%. Non-GAAP diluted EPS estimated: $44–$46.
If this guidance is ultimately realized, then what the market needs to reconsider is no longer "How much did SanDisk earn this quarter?" Instead: "How much longer can this storage supercycle last?" ”
For the storage industry, the most profitable period is usually not when demand is just beginning to grow. Instead: explosive demand + limited supply + product price increases. If AI infrastructure construction continues to thrive, demand for high-capacity storage and high-performance SSDs may keep increasing.
At this point, the profit elasticity of the storage industry often far exceeds the market's initial expectations.
So the biggest lesson this financial report offers investors may be:
The second phase of AI may be spreading from GPUs to storage.
SanDisk's financial report can be summed up in one sentence: explosive revenue growth, explosive profits, soaring gross margins, doubling of data centers, and the next quarter is expected to set new highs.
If AI continues to expand, storage may become one of the next directions for market repricing.
But it's also important to note: the more impressive the cyclical performance, the more vigilant you need to be when the market is trading ahead of time. Traditional companies' cash flow is the cause of bull markets. When Coca-Cola's soda sales revenue rises, its stock price rises, regardless of whether the stock market is in a bull market.
Almost 100% of the crypto protocol's cash flow comes from fees for speculative activities: DEX fees UNI, hype perpetual contract funding fees, liquidation penalties, meme launch platform commissions, and gas fees.
Cash flow income from crypto protocols is the result of a bull market, not the cause of a bull market.
So you can't use a cash flow generated by a high price to justify a high price. This means valuing the casino's own issued stocks using the casino's bubble revenue to appreciate.
So all DeFi protocols and public chain tokens crash during bear markets
The price-to-earnings ratio of these assets automatically balloons during a bear market, with market value dropping by half and income falling even more
Buy the bottom with a 10x PE, then buy it to 40x.CRCL's Q2 earnings report is out.
This quarter's total revenue was $701.3 million, a 7% year-over-year increase, but only a 1% quarter-over-quarter increase, below the market expectation of $713 million.
EPS was $0.18, slightly above the market expectation of $0.16.
RLDC profit margin was 41.2%, remaining high with no significant change compared to the previous quarter.
Personally, I think this earnings data is quite average, so why did the stock price rise in pre-market trading...
Could it be because the other income guidance was doubled? But the official statement clearly mentioned that this other income includes presale revenue from Arc Token, which is one-time and not an organic revenue increase.
Most of the upward revision likely comes from Token income, rather than a doubling of CPN subscriptions or other payment fee income.
Currently, the only explanation I can think of for the stock price rising after the earnings report is that CRCL's stock price has already been halved from its May peak, market expectations are low enough, and as long as the earnings report doesn't blow up, the stock price won't be further punished. The most brutal moves on the board often happen when the audience thinks the position is stable. Koreans raised the margin threshold for single-share leveraged ETFs from 10 million won to 30 million won. Within three days, the trading volume of sixteen leveraged and inverse products around Samsung and SK Hynix collapsed from 12.4 trillion won to 1.24 trillion won—this isn't a drawdown, it's a full exit of the entire sub-sector.
Do you understand this move? Regulators are not restricting speculation, but rather discarding the overheated central pawn on the board. KOSPI fell 18% over three days, then hit a record 17.91% gain, and quickly rebounded to 5.12%. This is like a false general in the middle game: after Black's king rook is replaced, White thinks they've found a weakness, but is instead drawn into an open line with no exit.
The real profiteer doesn't take it one step at a time, but has already calculated the situation twenty moves ahead before making a move. Now, everyone is watching this week's trading volume—whether it's genuine demand to fill the gap, or just a remnant after leveraged withdrawal. This is like a double threat in an endgame: if the memory supercycle truly lasts into 2029-2030, the current crash is just a brief retreat for the rear wing; If it is just the last pawn of the bulls, then any rebound is just clearing the way for the next round.
Now let's look at $XORCL—it's like the unformed outpost on the chessboard. When the tide of leverage in traditional markets recedes, smart money will inevitably seek new support points. The volume dryup you see on KOSPI will reappear on another battlefield as a form of position-building. But remember, a horse's path forward is never a straight line.
The first round of sharp drops is an opening trap; the second round of rebound is a false King Wing attack; the third round of pullbacks is the true mid-game rearrangement. The trading volume of leveraged ETFs shrank from 12.4 trillion yuan to 1.24 trillion yuan, as if a giant dragon had been cut in half, yet its tail kept twisting. What I smelled wasn't just the smell of stop-loss, but also the metallic grinding sound of a heavily positioned chess piece being forced to close out.
The memory supercycle can be drawn up to 2029, but no straight line on the chessboard can survive to that coordinate. Players either swap the fortress bishop before White launches an attack, or decisively make a gambit to gain the initiative when the opponent's light stone penetrates deep into the center. Now, the outcome of this game is not decided by the numbers on the table, but by who still holds the ulterior motive.
KOSPI's 17.91% is like a blood-red firework on the king's wing; after the fireworks fade, only dust remains at the center of the chessboard. Meanwhile, $XORCL's character is like a soldier yet to transform—it watches the empty slots in the opponent's camp, waiting for a real channel to open.
This week's trading data will be like the gestures of endgame referees, telling you whether this game is a truly necessary contest or a silent deduction after leveraged withdrawal. But before my hand touched the pieces, I never believed in the thickness of the board's surface. The pieces may not speak, but the sound of them being knocked down is enough to quiet the entire arena.
Look at those positions that have been knocked down by increased margin—they didn't lose to the drop, but to laziness when calculating their own moves. The terrifying aspect of a grandmaster is not his quick calculations, but his willingness to admit every possible way to die in the middle game right from the start. Now, the entire Korean market is undergoing this recognition.
Meanwhile, $XORCL, the fruit pit the market treats as an outlier, is waiting for a storm big enough to blow it into real soil. I'm not a prophet; I just saw three more squares than most people—there, a little soldier was silently ascending.
The winner of this game isn't the week's trading volume, but rather in some unnoticed corner, a pawn has already completed seven steps toward the bottom line. #koreaetfvoldown90$SNDK Complete analysis of the latest financial report for SanDisk SNDK 8.5
1. Core Breakdown of Financial Report (Clear Breakdown of Positive and Negative Factors)
(1) Hardcore Positive News (Current Period Performance Fully Showcased)
1. Revenue and profit significantly exceeded expectations
Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, surpassing market expectations of $8.394 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of +50.6%; EPS was $39.25, far exceeding institutions' expectations of $34.24, with profits soaring a hundredfold compared to the same period last year.
2. Profitability hits a record high
Gross margin reached 84.6%, breaking the company's previous guidance of 79%-81%. The high premium for high-end AI SSDs continues to be realized, with quarterly free cash flow of 7.083 billion yuan, indicating extremely ample cash flow.
3. Growth logic remains stable in the long term
Data center AI storage business grew 437% for the year, holding long-term supply orders from cloud vendors; Zero debt balance sheet, with an additional $14 billion in stock buybacks, large buybacks directly supporting the stock price and hedged downside risks.
4. Industry cycle fundamentals provide support
The global NAND flash supply gap will continue until 2027, with rigid demand for AI server storage remaining strong and product prices steadily rising. The company is the core beneficiary of this storage supercycle.
The fundamentals of the current earnings report are major positives, but weak growth guidance for next quarter constitutes core bearishness; In the coming week, overall volatility is weak, with limited downside and rebound height, mainly fluctuating within a range, making it difficult for a one-sided rally to occur.
Risk warning: The above is only financial report and industry logic inference, and does not constitute any investment or trading advice. U.S. stock fluctuations are greatly influenced by market sentiment, technology sector sentiment, and industry breakthroughs. $SNDK #闪迪财报前夕, HBF and storage shortages have sparked heated discussion $BTC $ETH August 5 | Crypto Daily
1. Market Overview
BTC is oscillating upward on the easing geopolitical benefits in the Middle East, testing resistance near 64,400, with the current price tugging around $64,000; ETH followed slightly higher, trading in the $1860-$1880 range. Overall, it is a pre-farm grinding recovery, with trading volume not effectively amplified, and the rebound lacks confirmation of incremental funds, so a trend reversal cannot be defined yet.
24-hour contracts across the network saw $226 million in liquidation, mainly through short liquidation; the Fear and Greed Index was 27, in the fear range. The market was heavily cautious, and funds were waiting for the non-farm payroll to be implemented on Friday night before making decisions.
- BTC | Support: 63,200, 62,600; Resistance: 64,500, 65,200
- ETH | Support: 1830, 1790; Resistance: 1895, 1960
2. Macroeconomic Peripheral Review
In the Middle East, there have been reports of progress in negotiations for temporary navigation of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have plunged, inflation expectations have cooled, and the 10-year US Treasury yield has remained oscillating at 4.67-4.69%, with the high interest rate environment remaining unchanged. US stocks hit new highs again, but the crypto market's gains significantly lagged behind US stocks, showing signs of asset decoupling and limited risk appetite transmission.
At 20:30 this Friday, the US July nonfarm payroll data is the biggest catalyst this week: strong employment data and rising rate hike expectations weigh on the crypto sector; Weakening employment will open up room for a rebound. Before the non-farm payroll was implemented, large funds generally avoided one-sided bets, and the market was mostly volatile.
3. ETF & Institutional Funding
BTC spot ETFs ended several consecutive days of outflows, recording a net inflow of $211 million yesterday, with BlackRock IBIT being the main buying force; however, the 30-day cumulative outflow remained net outflow, mainly short-term bottom-fishing funds, with institutions not yet seeing sustained accumulation.
Grayscale's ETHE funds remain resilient, maintaining positive inflows daily; MicroStrategy has not made any large-scale increases or reductions, and the industry giants remain on the sidelines.
4. Policy Developments
The CLARITY crypto bill has been officially confirmed as missing from the pre-recess vote. The Senate prioritizes fiscal spending and personnel nominations, with unresolved ethical clause differences. The probability of implementation in 2026 has dropped sharply, short-term policy positive expectations have cooled down, and the market has returned to macro and technical contests.
5. Industry Hot Events
1. The Coldcard hardware wallet vulnerability incident continues to ferment; the industry once again educates that cold wallets do not guarantee absolute security, reminding users to migrate assets promptly, and security topics continue to ferment;
2. The Meme sector continues to rotate rapidly, with many coins pulling back quickly after the pulse; When participating in Muddog, be sure to check the pool and LP locked status. If the pool is thin, avoid large funds entering the market. Remember the principle of prioritizing principal recovery.
3. Circle's CEO publicly stated that industry narratives are gradually shifting from pure speculation to tokenized real-world asset tracks, with tokenized stocks and commodities becoming the new direction for institutions;
4. As the weekend approaches, large-value unlock times for coins like SOL, AMAX, OP, and others are approaching, with selling pressure expectations suppressing the height of altcoin rebounds.
6. Trading Perspective
Currently, this is just a technical correction driven by news, with heavy trapped holdings above, and the decision to market trends is left to the non-farm payroll data. Don't blindly go long just because of a slight rebound.
Trading strategy: strictly control positions, stay away from high-leverage contracts, and avoid heavy positions betting on non-farm payroll results; For spot positions, the focus is on wait-and-see approach, with profitable positions taken in batches; When playing MEMEs, avoid chasing highs; look at liquidity before buying; Once nonfarm payrolls are implemented and market volume increases, medium-term positions can be replanned. In a volatile market, prioritize preserving your principal. #财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future? #SpaceX首份财报超预期, unlocking remains a key variable #AMD财报超预期 has growth been overdrawn? 🚨 NEW: The U.S. dollar has been strengthening since May, and Bitcoin is underperforming relative to nearly every comparable dollar rally on record.
According to Glassnode data, previous U.S. dollar rallies since 2015 have typically seen $BTC trading higher at this stage. This time, however, Bitcoin remains deep in the red, with only 3 out of the last 20 comparable dollar rallies producing weaker performance.
📊 Why Does This Matter?
A stronger U.S. dollar usually tightens global financial conditions, making risk assets like cryptocurrencies less attractive. Yet historically, Bitcoin has often shown greater resilience during similar periods.
This cycle has been different.
Several factors may be contributing:
🔹 Profit-taking following strong gains earlier in the cycle.
🔹 Persistent macro uncertainty, as investors continue to assess the Federal Reserve's policy path.
🔹 Selective liquidity, with capital concentrating in a handful of high-conviction assets instead of lifting the broader crypto market.
🔹 Institutional accumulation through spot ETFs has helped cushion downside pressure, but it hasn't yet been enough to trigger a sustained breakout.
👀 The Bigger Picture
History doesn't repeat perfectly, but it often rhymes.
If the dollar's rally begins to lose momentum while ETF inflows remain healthy and global liquidity improves, Bitcoin could be well positioned to close the performance gap.
For now, the divergence between a strong dollar and Bitcoin's relative weakness is one of the most important macro signals to watch.
The key question is whether this marks temporary underperformance before a catch-up move—or a sign that macro headwinds are still limiting upside.
⚠️ Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#Bitcoin $BTC #Crypto #Dollar $DXY
#EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates SanDisk$SNDK's earnings report was super positive, causing the sharp drop in after-hours trading
Q4 revenue for fiscal year 2026 was $8.96 billion, up 372% year-on-year, compared to market expectations of $8.394 billion and $1.901 billion in the same period last year;
Fiscal year 2026 revenue is $20.25 billion, a 175% increase over the previous year;
Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter were $39.25, compared to analysts' expectations of $34.37.
The company expects revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 to be between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion, compared to market expectations of $10.8 billion;
The company expects adjusted EPS for the first fiscal quarter to be $44-46, while analysts expected $45.58.
Other data are good, but the median expected revenue and EPS for Q1 FY27 are lower than market expectations, with a 5.6% drop after hours
Technically, multiple rebounds have encountered resistance at the daily 20MA. Normally, after three downward waves, a slightly larger rebound would begin, but currently, it is mostly trapped within a downward channel, so the possibility of a fourth downtrend needs to be considered.$SNDK Sharp Drop Analysis
1. Actual Q4 data released: Revenue 8.96 billion (expected 8.394 billion), EPS $39.25 (expected $33.01), gross margin 84.6%. The actual data significantly exceeded expectations.
2. Core negative factor: FY2027 Q1 revenue guidance range is $10.3~10.8 billion, while the market consensus expectation is $10.8 billion. The midpoint of the guidance, $10.55 billion, is below market estimates; EPS guidance is $44~46, also below the market's upper expectation of $45.58.
The market does not care about profits already earned; US growth stocks are priced entirely based on future growth. Originally, capital expected AI storage demand to continue booming at a high speed, but now signs of slowing growth have appeared, leading capital to directly lower valuation pricing.As mentioned earlier, why did SanDisk drop? $SNDK
It's not poor performance, but rather that market expectations are too high.
Q4 revenue and EPS both exceeded expectations, and the data center performance was also strong. However, the upper end of next quarter's revenue guidance remains slightly below market consensus, and the median gross margin has dropped from 84.6% to 84%. While growth continues, marginal surprises have diminished.
More importantly, this quarter's growth came mostly from price increases, while FY27's sellable bits only grew by mid-double digits. The market's real concern is not the lack of orders at present, but how long the price increases and high gross margins of NAND can be maintained.
So this drop feels more like profit-taking at the high point + expectations being squeezed out, not a sudden collapse in AI storage demand.
In a state of high valuation, a mere "good" financial report is no longer enough; it must far exceed expectations to continue supporting the stock price.$BICO Friendly reminder to my [Air Force] brothers: Especially for those currently only thinking of shorting or preparing to short, and haven't opened positions yet: please first check your own holdings and anticipate how far the market might rally (prepare yourself for a very bad and exaggerated expectation, hoping the daily gains will reach 50%, 60%, or even more). If it doesn't hold out to 0.04, don't rush to short. Of course, you can just try placing 0.039 or 0.04 to try it, buy a position, use low leverage, and treat it as a bit of entertainment. (If you list high or not, that's still good; if you miss out, you won't lose a single cent of principal.) Calculate your first investment ratio, entry point, and leverage multiple—all must be well calculated. The key is that if you want to win by opening a short position, never underestimate the Dog Dealer. Your stop-loss and forced closing point need to be very high. So: if you don't have a mine at home and don't have unlimited capital, try to keep your holdings light and leverage low. I'm a die-hard Air Force fan, and I really don't want to see a bunch of 'fake Air Force' appearing as losers, pitiful people, tragic protagonists on OKE's planetary feed. That's embarrassing and tarnishing the reputation of the 'Holy Air Force.' People like this, please voluntarily withdraw from the Air Force in the future, don't drag down the team and tarnish our reputation. Let me share a few of my early [small margin points], and also show you the [forced margin points] my margin can support. Yes, only forced liquidation is available, just short a junk fake air coin. Do you really need to manually set a stop-loss point? Here's a quick tip for newcomers. For example, when a group (not a team, not acting in unison, acting independently) goes short. A group of people have a stop-loss forced draw point of 0.032, B has a strong stop-loss point of 0.034, and C has a strong stop-loss point of 0.036. When the price fluctuates around 0.027, 0.028, 0.029, our opponents [Bulls Brothers] are among them, except for adventurous pure gamblers, Generally, it's rare to dare to invest heavily at such a high point and continue to chase the rally with high leverage. They really aren't afraid at all about potential drops??? In recent days, everyone has seen at least four or five strong altcoins rising and falling, collapsing with incredible speed and intensity. Here, I won't name them individually. I personally missed three or four, won all of them, and of course, there were several thrilling and thrilling moments. I have always been a [real deal], all visible and verifiable, not just talking or posting one or two screenshots of "hard to tell real from fake." The opposing bulls are not intimidating. The only ones who can ruin my empty mountain are two types of [lunatics and fools blending into the air force]. Their stop-losses are either too conservative and timid, setting their own low (their original intention is to use small to get big) or very low liquidation points (heavy positions, full positions, high leverage, forced liquidation if 10x rises less than 10%, forced liquidation if 20x gains less than 5%). Whether it's proactive stop-loss for stability or gamblers' self-pulling forced liquidation: the effect and effect are huge and rapid. I personally experienced two times in two coins, In just over ten seconds, the price has risen by over 20% or 25%—what does that mean? If some people place [isolated short orders] halfway before the takeoff point, haha, the moment the trade is activated is the moment of forced liquidation. Even if you only use 5x leverage, with a small position of 10U and a medium position of 100U and heavy 1000U, it will be instant death. Because with [pre-placed isolated positions], you have no time to add margin in ten seconds. The position instantly turns into a [buy long order] in 0.1 seconds, providing a boost. The previous shot soars, and every explosive short order becomes a buy or long position. If the network can keep up, it's not too late. Actually, each move should take less than 0.1 seconds. If the 0.031 batch loses and breaks by 1 million, then the 1 million buy order is instantly sold at 0.031. The price can jump to 0.032 in half a second, and then the short sellers who hit the 0.032 stop-loss strong break point are then eliminated. This group might be 2 million. Good, in half a second, that is equivalent to a 2 million buy, so...... Half a second later, the price jumped to 0.033, so the group with a forced stop stop point of 0.033 was eliminated again,...... Sigh...... So, fools, madmen, please stop being the 'Air Force.' You people aren't here to strengthen our team—you're just here to harm us. What I mean is also a small general explanation: many so-called extreme insertions aren't done by dog dealers or competitors. Bulls aren't just people with money or stupidity. Only those who get low prices before or at the start of the rally dare to hold long-term, hoping to gamble on big with small gains. Normally, smart people wouldn't chase the rally at high prices. After a lot of gains and very high levels, the reason for the faster and larger rally later isn't due to the bulls—it's the weak teammates in the [Air Force] teammates. If they lose out on their own, they'll mess up all the air force teammates,...... Sigh, my mind is going blank. How many words is this post? I guess it's over a thousand. (More text doesn't get any reward; instead, at least 95% of people glance at you: 'Hmm, what kind of art is this? Essay, it's too long, won't read, turns and leaves, hahaha)' Another hour of tapping is ...... That's it—too much to say all at once, tired, sleepy, #交易之声: your experience deserves to be heard. #新手必看: Everything you need is here At 3 a.m., I stared at the $SNDK board, and the last bit of luck in my heart finally shattered. It's not panic, but a calm of "Ah, I knew it." Have you ever felt like the stop-loss is right in front of you, but your fingers are hovering on the keyboard, waiting for a miracle that doesn't even exist? What I want to talk about today isn't this coin, but rather the undercurrents of cross-market interactions I have seen through it. Let's start with the facts. On the US side, the S&P 500 broke above 7,700 for the first time, led by crypto stocks, while Trump was still saying there was good news about inflation. Sounds like a scene of music and dance, right? But in the crypto world, $SNDK coins have been struggling repeatedly in a downturn, not even giving a decent rebound. On the same night, two completely different breathing rhythms. The signal I see is that risk appetite in traditional markets is indeed picking up, but money is no longer blindly pouring into high-volatility assets as before. The rise in U.S. stocks is due to index weights and those "safe" tech giants. On the crypto side, BTC and ETH are still lingering at high levels, but the knockoffs have already shown signs of fatigue. What does this indicate? Funds are being picky, and becoming more selective. What the market is trading now is not about "bull or bear market," but about "the certainty of which corner hasn't been taken." The new high in U.S. stocks has given everyone a psychological anchor, but the internal crypto tier is being reshuffled. The strong are getting more expensive, while the weaker are getting more and more ignored. - If BTC can hold its key position, funds may spill out of some US stocks into ETH, and then gradually spread to quality quality$SNDK Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a 51% quarter-over-quarter increase; non-GAAP EPS was $39.25, significantly above the market expectation of $34.96.
But the market is focused on the next quarter guidance:
1. Sandisk guides Q1 FY27 revenue of $10.3-10.8 billion;
2. The midpoint of this range is below FactSet consensus of $10.8 billion, and also below the higher market expectations mentioned in Yahoo's article;
3. EPS guidance is $44-46, roughly in line with consensus, with no strong upward revision.
So the market reaction is straightforward: the earnings report is very good, but the guidance is not explosive. Especially for a stock like SNDK, which had previously surged greatly and had very high market expectations, the biggest fear is "beat, but no further raising of the ceiling." Today's review:
Recently, the short-term linkage between BTC and the US tech sector has strengthened. When highly volatile AI industry chain stocks like SanDisk and Micron experience sharp ups and downs, BTC is also vulnerable to overall risk appetite, institutional capital adjustments, and liquidity changes during US trading hours.
However, this linkage is not a simple one-way cause-and-effect relationship. Compared to the rise and fall of individual tech stocks, BTC's own spot funds, derivatives positions, and key price structure remain the main factors determining short-term direction.
I previously opened a short position near $64,500, mainly based on repeated resistance to rally in the area and expectations that the price would fall back to the lower boundary of the range. Looking back now, the problem with this judgment was overlooking the continued buying support below and the fact that the price lows kept rising.
Recently, BTC has repeatedly tested the $62,000–$63,000 range and was able to recover quickly, indicating that the market is temporarily unwilling to trade at lower prices. Although bears have repeatedly tried to push the price down, no effective breakout has formed, so some have chosen to take profits or exit.
When the price returned to around $64,500, bulls did not immediately initiate a trending rally, and bears did not have enough strength to push the price back down, causing the market to consolidate at high levels. However, this sideways movement does not necessarily mean both bulls and bears are watching and waiting. If the price stays near the resistance level for an extended period but fails to pull back significantly, it may also indicate that selling pressure above is gradually being absorbed.
With bears actively exiting and prices approaching the stop-loss and forced liquidation zones above, passive buying created by short covering further pushed BTC toward $65,000. This is also one of the main reasons why the current trend is clearly stronger than I originally expected.
Currently, the size of my short positions is very small, so it hasn't put significant pressure on my account, but I won't overlook structural changes just because my position is light. If BTC holds steadily above $65,000 and still finds support after pushing back between $64,700 and $65,000, it indicates that short-term bearish logic has failed, and the plan should be followed rather than continuing to wait against the trend.
Conversely, if the price only briefly breaks below $65,000, then quickly falls below $64,500, further breaking the bottom-raising structure near $64,200 and $63,900, then the breakout above fails can be reassessed, and support at 63,500 and lower levels can be observed in sequence.
The most important review of this trade is not simply judging whether BTC is affected by US stocks, but rather that you can't rely solely on resistance levels and medium-term bearish expectations, and open positions early against the trend when prices keep pushing lows and bears fail to push a breakout. $BTC #财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future? AI 지출은 여전히 전속력, 메모리주가 다시 조명받는 이유 표면적으로는 실적 발표 후 주가 하락이지만, 시장이 실제로 재가격화하고 있는 것은 AI 인프라 투자 사이클의 지속성이라는 점에서 괴리가 발생하고 있다. 원문의 핵심 사실부터 정리하면 이렇다. SpaceX의 최근 실적에서 매출은 Starlink와 AI 서비스, 발사 운영 성장 덕에 기대치를 상회했으나, AI 자본지출이 예상보다 높게 집계되며 주가는 실적 발표 후 하락했다. 다만 발표에서 가장 중요한 메시지는 빅테크의 AI 인프라 투자 가속화였다. 이 사건이 시장 구조에 주는 의미는 명확하다. AI 데이터센터 구축에는 HBM, 엔터프라이즈 SSD, DRAM, NAND 스토리지가 대규모로 필요하다. 하이퍼스케일러가 AI 클러스터를 확장할수록 메모리 공급망은 이 투자 사이클의 핵심 수혜자가 된다. 이는 단순히 특정 기업 실적 문제가 아니라, AI 자본지출이 메모리 산업 전체의 수요 곡선을 바꾸는 구조적 흐름이다. 자금 행동 측면에서⚠️ Jim Cramer sells Bitcoin over quantum computing concerns
Jim Cramer, host of CNBC's *Mad Money*, announced he would sell his entire Bitcoin holdings due to concerns that future advancements in quantum computing could threaten the cryptographic systems securing Bitcoin. His statement follows warnings from various experts and tech leaders urging the crypto industry to prepare for the post-quantum era.
However, most experts maintain that:
🔹 This is not an immediate threat; current quantum computers lack the power to crack Bitcoin's encryption.
🔹 The Bitcoin community has already begun researching post-quantum cryptographic solutions to safeguard the network for the future.
🔹 This risk is considered a long-term issue rather than a factor that would compromise Bitcoin's security in the coming months or years.
💬 Crypto community reaction:
Many investors view this merely as Jim Cramer's personal opinion, noting that it does not alter Bitcoin's long-term outlook.
On platforms like X and Reddit, many users referenced the "Inverse Cramer" effect—the practice of doing the opposite of what Cramer predicts—interpreting his move as a positive signal (albeit humorously) rather than a reason to sell BTC.
#CLARITYVoteMath $BTC Upbit宣布上线$GRVT之后，价格应声拉出一根大阳线，短线涨幅一度超过80%。这波暴力拉升确实吸引了大量空头入场，很多人觉得涨得急就该反向做空，但合约数据透露出的信号并不支持这个判断。 我拉了一下合约持仓和资金费率的变化，发现上涨初期多空比确实快速下降，空头借势进场非常凶猛。但有意思的是，在拉升后段，持仓量持续走高，同时多空比重新拐头向上，这说明高位区域非但没有吓退多头，反而有更多资金愿意接棒做多。这种价涨、仓增、多空比回升的组合，在短线交易里往往意味着趋势还没走完。 更值得留意的是韩国市场的资金动向。他们参与炒币的习惯大家应该都清楚，火力全开的时候杠杆拉得非常满。如果$GRVT后续在Upbit上的交易量继续放大，加上韩国资金持续涌入，这根上涨趋势线很可能还会往上猛扎一截。眼下空进去，等于在列车加速前站在铁轨中央。 我不建议在这个位置追空，尤其不能因为涨得多就默认它会马上掉头。数据在告诉我们，多头还没散场，现在最忌讳的就是凭感觉去赌拐点。耐心等待持仓量见顶回落，或者多空比出现持续下行，再考虑进场会更从容。行情还在发酵期，保持观望比盲目动手更安全。 GRVT #SpaceX首份财报超$BICO Coin price surges and is about to face liquidity issues again!
From my observation, the main reason for the current price increase is not short liquidation.
Instead, it was more frequent buying that led to a rise in the price of the token.
Still faces a real problem.
There are basically two ways to sell: one is placing orders in advance, using short liquidations or trend-following traders to sell stock. Realistically, with prices rising so much, followers have also decreased. However, leverage for this coin is limited—very high leverage is rare. Scaling short positions is not easy. Moreover, times have changed; players now have ample margin for trading altcoins, so liquidations are not so easy. Obviously, this method is very difficult to sell, and with so many profit-taking orders, everyone is rushing to sell. This only increases the risk of the main force.
The second shipping method is to distribute products regardless of cost.
At present, the order wall below is very thin; even not large orders can trigger rapid price drops, and most people can't escape it.
Given the difficulty of pulling up short stocks, I believe the second way to sell by major players is more likely.
So I suggest that profit-takers can appropriately reduce holdings at high levels, and only by pocketing the profits can you truly be your own.
Avoid major drawdowns.
#财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future? #SpaceX首份财报超预期, unlocking remains a key variable #AMD财报超预期 has growth been overdrawn? $SNDK Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion,
Estimated at $8.394 billion
Why did SanDisk fall in response?
1. Earnings exceeding expectations = delivering anticipated positive news
2. The market has not given a new and larger space for imagination.
3. Cyclical stocks at high levels
4. "Just meeting the standard" is enough to trigger a profit-taking exit attempt.
Yesterday's 1483 can be regarded as a recent rebound high $OKB /USDT Technical Analysis (4H Timeframe)
OKB is currently trading around $85.87, pulling back after testing the $87.25 resistance zone. Despite the short-term weakness, the broader structure remains constructive as price continues to trade within the Bollinger Bands and above a key higher-low region.
Market Structure
The recent rally pushed OKB into the $87.20-$87.30 supply area, where sellers stepped in. The latest bearish candle suggests profit-taking rather than a complete trend reversal. Bulls are now defending the mid-range support.
Support & Resistance
Key Support:
$85.60-$85.70 – Immediate support and lower Bollinger Band.
$85.20 – Strong demand zone. A break below this level could trigger additional downside pressure.
Key Resistance:
$86.80-$87.25 – Major resistance where sellers previously rejected price.
Above $87.25 – A confirmed breakout could open the path toward $88.50-$89.00.
Moving Averages
MA5: 86.01
MA10: 86.37
MA20: 86.34
Price has slipped below all three moving averages, indicating that bulls are losing short-term momentum. However, the MA10 and MA20 remain relatively flat, suggesting this could still be a healthy pullback rather than a confirmed bearish trend.
Volume Analysis
Volume has increased on the recent rejection from resistance, showing active participation from sellers. However, there is no evidence of panic selling yet. Bulls need stronger buying volume near support to confirm accumulation and restart the upward move.
Bollinger Bands
Upper Band: 87.08
Middle Band: 86.34
Lower Band: 85.61
Price is trading close to the lower Bollinger Band, which often signals that volatility is expanding. A strong bullish reaction from this zone could lead to a rebound toward the middle band around $86.30-$86.40.
MACD Outlook
Although the MACD is not visible in the screenshot, the current price action suggests the histogram is likely weakening
$OKB
#OKXOrbitTopics
#OKXTraderVoices
#OKX.ai Russia's first comprehensive crypto legislative framework comes into force on September 1.
Licensed exchanges will place trades $BTC, $ETH and $USDT – real-world asset classes receive a legal basis. The ban on payments remains, but the door to the infrastructure has only just opened.
This is a history of liquidity, not payments. Regulated channels mean that institutional capital receives a compliant entry loop into the region's largest emerging market. The demand side has become deeper.
#EarningsRealityCheck $SNDK Wow, fun! SanDisk turned into Flash Crash! !️
During trading, I was really afraid of the rebellious ones pulling upward, so I took profits directly from my short position
Controlled all night, waking up in the middle of the night and immediately clearing it for a quick take!
I really guessed it
1. Revenue: $8.97 billion, market expectation $8.48 billion, significantly exceeding forecasts, up 51% quarter-on-quarter
2. Adjusted EPS: $39.25, expected $34.96, profits significantly exceeding forecasts.
3. Gross margin reached 84.6%, maintaining an extremely high level; Data center AI storage business exploded, soaring 437% year-on-year.
In fact, the market has already risen in this regard
That is, the surge the day before yesterday and yesterday's night trading
😓 This is also why I lost money on my previous orders
4. Next quarter guidance (key): Revenue 10.3-10.8 billion, market expectation 10.8 billion; EPS is $44-46, compared to the expected $44.72.
👉 The midpoint of the guidance range was slightly below market expectations, with no upward revision of the outlook, barely touching the lower bound of expectations.
Here's the reason!! !️ !️
⚠️ Bearish Point: The guidance for next quarter has not been revised upward, which is the root cause of capital selling. Compared to past financial reports that have already been implemented, the storage stock market is more dependent on guidance for future quarters.
In other words, when funds can't see the future, they cash out and exit
Wait for the next favorable day before entering
It turns out that U.S. stock capital invests in the future
If it can make money in the future and exceeds expectations, then continue to support it
If you can only make the expected amount, then exit and look for the next unicorn 🦄
The last order is off......On one side was $7.7 billion of WBTC migrating access to Chainlink CCIP, and on the other, LINK was almost untouched all day.
$LINK Currently around 8.20, the 24-hour range is only 8.07 to 8.24, and over the past 7 days, it has underperformed the overall market. There has been significant progress on the project side, but the market feedback has been lukewarm.
This shows that capital is no longer willing to pay only for the partner list. Chainlink's service does require LINK to pay fees, incentivize nodes, and participate in staking, but institutions rely on infrastructure, and the spot market is still in between generating sustained buying demand, with income scale, fee methods, and token demand in between.
In the short term, I'll watch whether 8.24 can hold steady with increased volume, and consider following after a breakout. If it falls back below 8.07, today's news is basically not recognized by capital.
What LINK lacks may no longer be new partnerships; the market is waiting for collaborations to truly flow into tokens.Upward signal: the Fed has abandoned aggressive rate hikes → the pressure on risk assets has decreased sharply → the inflow of funds into BTC $BTC ETFs directly supports the price.
Simply put, Kashkari said this: he bluntly stated that the Fed does not plan to arrange aggressive tightening. Why is this important? Because the market used to be constantly nervous: it was afraid that the "ceiling" of interest rates would rise further. Now this head of the central bank is giving a cautious signal, which means that rates are highly likely to remain at a high level and will be "sawn" without sharp surprises that could collapse the market. Guys, everyone knows: in crypto, the most terrible thing is a sudden macro-tightening.
#BTCSecurityAlliance 别人都在笑他拿婚姻赌行情，我却觉得他无意中摸到了衍生品结构的底牌。 一个连恋爱都没谈过的模具厂工人，和一条被解锁砸不死的meme币，谁才是真正的明白人？ 我看到这条帖子的时候，第一反应不是看多还是看空BEAT，而是心里轻轻"咯噔"了一下。他把人生选择题交给仓位，这在很多人眼里是赌徒行为，但换一个视角，这恰恰是散户在用自己的方式理解衍生品市场的"结算逻辑"。他嘴上说的是儿女情长，手里下的单子却是对解锁筹码分布的判断。 我们先别急着嘲笑他的选择，来看看他观察到的信号有没有道理。他的核心逻辑其实就一条：8月1日有2100多万枚代币解锁，对应市值6800万美金，这么大的抛压摆在明面上，币价不仅没被砸穿，反而逆势拉了16%，这说明什么？说明在那个时间节点，合约市场的空头持仓密度远高于现货抛压的承受力，空头被定向清理了。他看到了"该跌不跌"的衍生品信号，而不是单纯的K线图。 - 他的偏多逻辑里，最扎实的一点是项目方在用平台收入回购销毁，这相当于在衍生品市场里人为制造了一个持续的买盘对手方，这个支撑比任何喊单都硬。 - 从MACD动能衰减和均线走平来看，他捕捉到的是卖方力量衰竭的尾声，这种技术形态在After the SPCX surge, the sharp drop period—is now the time to observe rather than enter? The most important variable to check is whether to liquidate the new buying volume formed around $130. Based on the original article, SPCX rose to the $130 range during the previous day's session, then plunged sharply with a long upper tail. This indicates that strong selling pressure was present at the top, with buyers entering near $130 currently staying below the average price. The MACD remains in the buy-dominant zone, but signs of slowing downward momentum are observed as upward momentum weakens from the high. From a technical perspective, the short-term support is at $108.79, based on the previous low, while the strong support is set at $104.31. The upper resistance is between $126 and $130.66, and unless this range is broken, further upside potential is limited. The significance of this event for market structure goes beyond just individual coin charts. The pattern of a sharp rise followed by a sharp drop shown by SPCX can be seen from the perspective of capital behavior. Science post: How to short correctly
Since May, my three most heavily weighted short trades were:
The first short was on eth. At the time, I opened a hype long and an eth short—my intention was to hedge.
The logic was that in the crypto market, without new incremental capital entering, the hype ETF would absorb the existing capital from the eth ETF. From 2000 short to 1600, profit was 5wu.
The second short was on mstr. The logic was that MicroStrategy’s funds were running out, so they had no choice but to issue more shares to avoid blowing up. They gradually placed many short positions from 130 down to 80, profit 5wu.
The third short was on spaceX. The logic has been mentioned in a longer post before. From 160 short to now, unrealized profit is 8wu and I haven’t taken profit yet.
Common features of these three assets:
1. The project/company itself isn’t profitable.
2. The float is loose, with a large amount of sell orders.
Shorting is a riskier trade than going long. On the basis of the principal being doubled, long positions never get liquidated, while shorts blow up if they get pulled up by one times.
So for shorting, safety matters more than upside magnitude.
I generally use the following indicators to judge whether it’s safe:
1. Whether a big surge could happen due to news or announcements.
2. Whether the company/project itself has profitability, and whether there’s any expectation of buybacks.
3. Whether there are forced/active sellers continuously dumping.
To sum it up as principles:
1. Don’t short “meme” coins, because market makers control the float.
2. Don’t short profitable projects/companies.
That’s it 🙂↔️
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#SP500Hits7700 #AMDBeatsButDrops #AMDBeatsButDrops BTC has returned above $64,000, but this rebound cannot be rushed as a reversal
Bitcoin is currently quoted at $64,730, up 1.06% intraday, with an intraday low of $63,869 and a high of $64,955. The price has climbed back above the 5-day moving average of $63,351, and short-term sentiment is indeed somewhat better than in previous days
But don't forget, BTC's 200-day moving average is still above $71,125.18. In other words, it now feels more like a recovery after a decline, and there is still some way to go before a true reversal of the major trend
In the past couple of days, there has been a clear pattern in the market: when it drops to around 63,800, there are people buying in, but when it goes up near 65,000, selling starts again. Neither the bulls nor bears have completely given up, so the price naturally gets stuck in the middle, dragging people back and forth
Next, focus on two key positions
Whether the $65,000 price can stabilize with increased volume will it be qualified to continue watching the 66,000 to 68,000 yuan range
Whether $63,800 can hold and fall back with weakened support may soon end the short-term rebound
The most painful trading right now is going all out when I see a slight increase. This position is better for waiting for confirmation, rather than betting on the direction based on emotions
The market never lacks a single bullish candle; what is lacking is whether there is sustained buying after the candlestick. Whether BTC can hold above 65,000 is the key to whether this rebound has quality for $BTC U.S. employment data began to weaken.
In July, ADP private employment increased by only 44,000, while the market expected 70,000.
But this does not mean the U.S. economy is failing.
The key point is: the Fed wants to continue raising rates, but now it's missing another supporting reason.
For BTC, short-term sentiment is biased positive.
Employment continues to cool
→ pressure to raise interest rates has eased
→ there is room for U.S. Treasury yields to fall
→ risk assets are now taking a breather.
However, we cannot be blindly optimistic just yet.
Weak employment can be divided into two situations:
A slow and moderate cooling is the soft landing that BTC is most looking forward to;
If the data deteriorates rapidly, it will trigger recession fears, putting pressure on both the stock market and crypto markets.
The ADP's 44,000 is just a preliminary reference; the real key test lies in Friday's nonfarm payroll data.
If nonfarm payrolls continue to weaken and the unemployment rate does not rise sharply, the bullish environment will be even more favorable.
The ideal scenario for the market has never been a US economic collapse,
but rather that the economy is so weak that the Federal Reserve dares not raise rates further,
But not weak enough to trigger a full-blown recession fear. Bears face a "bloodbath"! $BTC Heading for $68,000?
In the past 24 hours, total contract liquidations across the crypto market across the network amounted to about $210 million, including $142 million in short liquidations and $67.3778 million in long positions, with short losses more than double those of long positions.
The rally of the round has a clear "short squeeze" characteristic.
Concentrated liquidation of short positions triggers passive buying, further pushing prices up and creating a short-term positive feedback pattern of "rise - liquidation - continued rise."
This bullish sentiment toward BTC also indicates that the market had accumulated considerable bearish positions before.
However, the rise driven by liquidation does not mean that spot funds have fully flowed back.
After a large number of short positions are cleared out, the derivative fuels continuing to rise will also decrease. If spot trading volume, ETF funds, and institutional buying cannot take over, BTC may re-enter consolidation after a rally, or even test back to confirm support.
Attention should also be paid to the $64,000 to $65,000 range.
If BTC breaks through $65,000 with increased volume and holds above $65,000, it is likely to continue challenging $67,000 to $68,000 in the short term; if the breakout fails and falls below $63,000 again, it may retest $62,000, with a potential retest of $62,000 in extreme cases.
Overall, the short-term trend has shifted from bearish to bullish, but this feels more like a strong short squeeze rather than a confirmed new bull market.
Whether BTC can continue to rise depends on whether genuine buyers are willing to take over and gather strength after the liquidation ends, making a further sprint!
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard🚀 BOOM! Bitcoin Just Reclaimed $65,000
The wall finally cracked. Bitcoin punched through $65,000, clearing the 50-day average that rejected every single attempt for three straight weeks. 🔥
📈 The tape:
Price: just above $65,000
Broke: the 50-day EMA at $64,587, unbroken for 3 weeks
ETF inflows: $170M yesterday, IBIT led with $111M
Range busted: the tight $63,800 to $64,800 coil
This move has real fuel, not just hopium. Global risk is ripping. The S&P 500 and Dow just closed at all-time highs, Japan's Nikkei jumped 3.5%, Korea surged 4.3%, and Brent crude slid to $78 on progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Softer oil means cooler inflation, which means the Fed has more room to ease. Add ETF money flooding back in, and buyers finally had enough to break the range. 💪
But keep the head cool before you ape. This is a breakout from a tight coil, and the next wall is right overhead at $66,000 to $67,000, where the 100-day EMA sits at $67,025. BTC is still below the 200-day at $72,569, so the bigger trend hasn't flipped yet. One green candle through $65K is a start, not a victory lap. Volume needs to confirm this, or it fades like every fakeout before it.
What to watch:
Hold $65,000 and clear $66,000 to $67,000, and $68K then $70K open up. 🎯
Lose $64,300 back below, and it's a fakeout into the range again. 🔻
Reclaiming $65K is the milestone, holding it is the proof. Don't chase the candle into resistance. Let $65K confirm as support, then act. 👀
Real breakout to $70K, or another rejection at $67K?
Not financial advice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops $SNDK Previously, prices were pushed so high. First, the overall market drove the market, and second, there was optimism about the earnings report. Now, the guidance is below expectations, but earnings exceed expectations. As you know, when good news arrives, it inevitably leads to negative outcomes, and the upper limit of the development guidance is locked. Anyway, I won't buy at this price. I'll wait for another drop and see if it's a buy opportunity.$SOXL Going long directly on SOXL. SanDisk's SNDK fell after hours. Essentially, the NAND guidance cap fell short of extreme market expectations, which is an internal issue within the NAND segment, not a collapse of the entire AI semiconductor cycle.
$SOXL will not be completely controlled by the storage market; the constituent stocks are mainly GPUs, AI chips, and semiconductor equipment, with limited storage weighting.
The market is now experiencing sector fragmentation: NAND is cutting valuations, but AI computing hardware logic remains intact. If funds distinguish between NAND and HBM computing power, and the semiconductor sector recovers, SOXL could enjoy triple the rebound elasticity.BTC death cross (50-day moving average crossing below 200-day moving average)—for the first time in 4 years.
Historical Data:
2015: Bottomed out about 2-3 months after the death cross
2019: Bottomed out about 2-3 months after the death cross
2022: Bottomed out about 2-3 months after the death cross
Current Status:
The 50-day MA is crossing below the 200-day MA
After each death cross, prices usually have further downside potential
But it is also an area that long-term investors are starting to pay attention to
Key observations:
A death cross is a lagging indicator—it usually appears after the price has already dropped sharply.
It is more a signal of a trend continuation than the start of a new trend for $BTC #On the eve of SanDisk's earnings report, HBF and storage shortages spark heated discussion
HBF just made a big move, but I actually think SanDisk's stock will drop after the earnings report
Here's the conclusion first:
I recognize HBF's long-term value and am optimistic about this round of NAND price increases.
But being optimistic about the company doesn't mean being optimistic about the stock price after the earnings report.
SanDisk and SK Hynix have just announced the first HBF standard specifications.
High bandwidth, larger capacity, directly serving AI inference—this story is indeed very attractive.
But the problem is:
HBF is still in the standardization and sample deployment stage; actual entry into AI devices is expected only by 2027.
What it contributes now is imagination space, not current quarter profits.
Tonight's earnings report is still about NAND price increases, data center SSD demand, and next quarter guidance.
The market already knows too much about these positives.
What everyone expects now is no longer "exceeding the company's original guidance," but:
✔ Revenue and EPS significantly exceeding the latest consensus expectations again
✔ Gross margin continuing to rise noticeably
✔ Next quarter guidance being revised upward again
✔ Management confirming that price increases and shortages will continue
If any of these are not met, no matter how good the earnings numbers look, it could be interpreted as "not good enough."
That's why last quarter SanDisk greatly exceeded expectations but still fell after hours.
Because the market never buys how much was earned in the past, but whether the next quarter can continue to blow past expectations.
My judgment is:
The probability that tonight's earnings exceed the company's original guidance is very high, and it may slightly exceed Wall Street expectations.
But surpassing the high expectations already priced into the stock is much more difficult.
#EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #AMDBeatsButDrops 流动性永远比情绪更诚实。8月5日的盘面，钱正在用脚投票：$BTC 在63,000到64,200之间反复收敛，24小时涨了近1个点，试探6.4万整数关口。这种缩量震荡不是没资金，而是资金在等一个触发点。ETF端已经连干了两天，$BTC现货昨日净流入2.11亿美元，某机构单家就贡献了1.7亿，$ETH也进了5,375万，机构这波是真金白银在吸筹。 $ETH 现报1,870，明显比$BTC弱一档，1,890压着上不去，下方1,850附近有承接。$BNB 倒是主流里最硬的那个，601附近涨了1.7%以上，资金偏好很直白。$SOL 74美元附近小涨，弹性还在。$XRP和$DOGE就没什么戏，一个跌0.56%一个跌0.5%，散户情绪确实冷。 真正热闹的在异动层。$SNDK 财报预期营收高达84亿美元左右，同比暴增340%以上，再加上和SK海力士搞了个HBF技术规范，日线直接从998拉到1427，涨了快43%。xSNDK 24小时又补涨了9%。这种基本面驱动的爆发比纯炒作的BICO靠谱，BICO单日涨了22%但追高就是接盘。HOME在Upbit成交占比超过11%，韩国资金在搅局。 #SpaceX首份周三盘后，闪迪$SNDK 交出了2026财年第四季度的成绩单。这是一份几乎找不到瑕疵的财报。 营收89.7亿美元，比华尔街预期的84亿高出一大截。GAAP每股收益43.97美元，预期只有34美元左右。Non-GAAP每股收益39.25美元，同样远超预期。全年营收202.5亿美元，同比增长175%。全年GAAP每股收益73.76美元。数据中心营收同比增长437%。公司宣布新增140亿美元回购计划，把剩余回购额度推到了155亿美元。下季度指引：营收103亿到108亿美元，每股收益44到46美元。 这份财报如果是考卷，拿的是接近满分。 但这个满分，市场早就猜到了 看价格就知道了。财报发布前两小时，SNDK在1400美元以上高位运行，盘中全天涨了11%。这不叫"财报后涨"，这叫"财报前已经把涨的部分涨完了"。 等财报真正出来的一瞬间，价格从1353直线砸到1244，暴跌近8%。虽然之后又弹回1310附近，但再也没有回到1400。 这就是存储板块今年最残酷的现实：不是财报好不好，是股价已经提前把好消化了多少。闪迪年内涨了超过440%，就算7月暴跌了47%，它的估值依然不低。当一家公司已经涨了四倍To start with the conclusion: SanDisk's overall financial report clearly exceeded market consensus expectations, but the stock price actually fell after hours, which is more likely to be a realization of positive factors amid high expectations, rather than a substantial deterioration in the company's fundamentals.
SanDisk's revenue, adjusted earnings per share, and data center business all maintained strong growth this quarter, with data center revenue doubling quarter-on-quarter, further validating the AI infrastructure driving enterprise storage demand. The company expanded its share repurchase scale and signed more long-term customer agreements, which also supported medium- to long-term cash flow and demand visibility.
The main reason for the stock price decline may be that the market had already priced in very optimistic earnings expectations before the earnings release, while the company's median revenue guidance for the next quarter was slightly below consensus. At the same time, most of this quarter's revenue growth came from product price increases rather than sales volume growth, prompting the market to begin assessing the sustainability of current high prices and high gross margins.
Therefore, this decline can currently be defined as profit-taking at a high level, but for now, it cannot be confirmed that major players have fully sold off based solely on the first round of post-market fluctuations. Earnings calls, management's explanations of price trends and data center demand, as well as volume and price performance during the next normal trading session, remain very important.
From a medium- to long-term perspective, SanDisk's data center and AI storage logic have not been compromised, so I still maintain a long-term bullish outlook. However, before the stock price completes technical confirmation again, I will control my position to avoid adding positions all at once during sharp fluctuations after the earnings report.
Next, I will focus on the $1,400 level. Only when SanDisk's lead stock reclaims $1,400 and holds steady at the close of normal trading, then if a pullback to this area still finds support, will further increase positions considered. If the price only briefly breaks above $1,400 and then quickly falls, it indicates that the selling pressure above has not been fully absorbed, and patience should be maintained.
Long-term optimism does not mean ignoring risks. Going forward, continuous monitoring of data center revenue growth, product pricing trends, sales growth, gross margin, and guidance for the next quarter is still needed. If data center demand remains strong and revenue growth gradually shifts from price-driven to a combination of price and sales volume, then the current correction may actually become a healthier repricing process. $SNDK #SpaceX首份财报超预期, the lock-up remains a key variable U.S. stocks fell across the board after the close—what happened?
Tonight, U.S. stocks weakened across the board after the session, and tech stocks also failed to hold up.
I think the reason isn't complicated. Although many large tech stocks have reported good earnings recently, the market's expectations for AI are already very high. As long as earnings don't significantly exceed expectations, funds easily choose to take profits first. Posts like SpaceX and AMD fell after hours, reflecting the market's reassessment of valuations rather than simply chasing AI buys.
Additionally, US stocks just hit new highs a few days ago, and many popular stocks have already risen significantly in a short time. A pullback at such a level is actually quite normal. Increased short-term volatility does not mean the long-term trend is over; rather, it seems more like funds are trading again at high levels, waiting for the next new catalyst.
$SNDK $SPCX $NVDA Use liquidation data to take the market's temperature. In the past 24 hours, the total short liquidations across the network have clearly surpassed the longs, and the volume of short squeezes is several times that of the long liquidations — yet the price hasn't soared; $BTC is still stuck in a narrow range near 64K. This combination is worth pondering: shorts are being gradually squeezed out, but incremental buying hasn't taken over, so the price can't rise. The funding rate is simultaneously pr