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With the implementation of dual positive factors, the crypto market is entering a window to lay out
The unexpected negative July nonfarm payroll data combined with the delay in the CLARITY bill vote led to two major events happening on the same day—the former injecting liquidity easing expectations into the market, while the latter signaling the exhaustion of short-term regulatory risks. The crypto market stands at a turning point driven by both macro and regulatory factors.
🌐 Macro Dimension | Nonfarm Payrolls Surprisingly Disappointed, Easing Expectations Boost Market Confidence
Key data overview: US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, while market expectations for an increase of 80,000; the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.2%; the labor force participation rate fell to 61.4%, a five-year low. Meanwhile, employment data for May and June was revised down by a total of 103,000.
The underlying logic is clear: the weakening job market is no longer indisputable. After the data was released, the CME Group's FedWatch tool showed the probability of a rate hike in September plummeted from 58% to 40.1%, and swap market pricing further indicated the probability of a rate hike in September was only 30%. The US dollar index fell 0.42% intraday to 99.54, and the 10-year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.64%—global expectations of easing liquidity continue to rise.
$BTC combines the safe-haven attributes of digital gold with speculative attributes of risk assets, so the easing of liquidity will naturally attract capital inflows. After the release of non-farm payroll data, Bitcoin surged sharply, and the total market capitalization of the crypto market rebounded to $2.21 trillion. Combined with the Federal Reserve's policy recess window from August to September, the overall macro environment favors the crypto market, and each round of price corrections is an opportunity to position at low levels.
⚖️ Regulatory Dimension | The CLARITY Act has been postponed, and mistaken chips are finding room for repair
Data reference: The probability of the bill's implementation and approval this year has dropped from over 70% in early May to about 14%, and the market Predict.fun predicts the probability has dropped to 16%.
Short-term negative news fully absorbed: The U.S. Senate did not advance the CLARITY bill vote before the August recess, postponing the review to September. Previously, the market had already priced in regulatory negative news — XRP became the only top ten cryptocurrency to record a decline, dropping 2.05% in 24 hours to $1.02. After the Senate delayed the vote, there will be no more unexpected regulatory pressure in the short term, and the negative news has basically been gone.
The medium- to long-term ambush logic still holds: the bill has already gained bipartisan support in the House, and its current stagnation stems from Democratic disagreements over the clause limiting federal officials' crypto asset interests. Senate Majority Leader Toon Toon has clearly stated that after the reconvening on September 14, the bill will be prioritized as the top priority. The current low valuations caused by retail investors panicking and fleeing are a window for positioning.
📈 Two main lines of layout
▫️ Stable blue-chip bottom position lines: $BTC, $ETH. Relying on macro liquidity dividends to emerge from a recovery rally, it has strong resilience against regulatory news disturbances. BTC is currently fluctuating around $64,900, suitable for long-term holding.
▫️ Expectation reversal game line: $BNB. Betting on the warming atmosphere of September bill negotiations has driven a valuation rebound, benefiting from a recovery driven by regulatory negative reversals.
⚠️ Risk control reminder
In the short term, market volatility will increase significantly, so it is essential to maintain light positions and allocate in batches. Focus on the September Senate reopening voting date, as policy changes will directly affect market trends. Also pay attention to the impact of macro events such as August CPI data and the Jackson Hole central bank meeting on market liquidity.非农前夜$BTC冲高回落，65000美元成短线分水岭。行情在凌晨一度触及65192美元，24小时涨幅0.87%，但随后的两次上攻均在65000关口折戟，空头在这个位置布置了密集卖单。目前价格稳定在64000至65000区间，多空双方都在收敛仓位，等待晚间八点半的非农数据给出方向性信号。市场预期七月份就业数据将直接影响美联储九月降息概率，若数据不及预期，$BTC可能借势突破65000并加速上行；反之则可能回踩63000支撑位。$SOL表现相对强势，24小时涨2.61%，资金有从$BTC流向主流山寨的迹象。整体而言，当前盘面属于变盘前的窄幅整理，杠杆资金已经被清洗两轮，一旦方向选择明确，波动幅度不会小于3000美元。我倾向于认为非农数据公布后$BTC会先向下插针至64200附近，随后快速拉回并测试66000压力区，这种走势在过去三次数据行情中重复出现过。现在需要做的就是等待，方向未明之前强行交易只会两头挨打。 #存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ The USDC in your wallet has just been re-split between the two companies
Circle and Coinbase have renewed their USDC revenue sharing and distribution agreements. To clarify their relationship first: Circle is the issuer of USDC, Coinbase is the most frequently used exchange in the US, and it's also the largest distribution channel for USDC. Every USDC entry point and fee-free deposit you've seen on Coinbase over the past few years has been supported by this protocol.
The most important thing to watch about this renewal isn't what was signed, but the content of the contract. The new agreement removes the quarterly dividend clause. To put it simply, the way both companies split money based on reserve income and trading volume will still be in place, but Coinbase will no longer take a fixed dividend directly from Circle's profits. For Circle, this is exactly the burden it wants to shed most after its IPO—being tied to pay the exchange before listing, which makes investors uncomfortable when they see the financial reports.
Looking further ahead, this is actually a microcosm of the stablecoin war. USDC and US regulation are the closest to US regulation, with reserves basically cash plus short-term US Treasuries, transparency disclosed monthly, and a completely different approach from USDT's offshore black box. Coinbase has elevated USDC to its platform's top priority, adding another moat to USDC's compliance narrative. As long as the US stablecoin bill keeps pushing forward, USDC, as a localist, will only get smoother.
But don't treat renewals as a safe bet. No matter how long the agreement is, it's still a commercial contract. The premise of sharing money is that Circle can still make money on its own. Reserve yields depend on US Treasury yields; once the rate cut cycle suppresses short-term returns, the potential for this segmentation model will shrink along with it. Contracts can bind platforms, but not macroeconomics.
Ordinary people shouldn't just focus on the paper. USDC has secured its position as the second place thanks to its deep integration with leading platforms like Coinbase. As long as this line continues, using USDC on mainstream platforms will still be the smoothest option. What we really need to watch out for is the other side: the pool data I've been following earlier shows USDT falling from 184.2 billion to 183.1 billion, USDC from 73.28 billion to 72.15 billion, a total decrease of 2.23 billion in one month. The ebb and flow of the water level is more tangible than any official announcement.
My own habit is that I can use any firm's token for trading turnover, but for long-term unchanged reserves, I only recognize the transparent side. If the agreement is renewed, this business can still be viable, but being too tightly bound can be reflexive. If the platform ever has problems, the bound stablecoins will still be dragged down with it.
Here's a question for you. Are you holding USDT or USDC right now? Have you considered that the underlying logic of these two companies is completely different?The coins that were called to buy in the group surged and were buried
Today, there was a typical scene in the market. BICO jumped 39 points with a single line, instantly stirring up the group chat with screenshots flying everywhere. But before the momentum settled, the price reversed and turned back, with several other knockoffs joining the rally, all opening strong and closing soft, with the upper shadow stretching long. Those chasing in hadn't even recovered before the floating losses had already arrived.
Veteran players can understand this trend at a glance. The fiercest rally usually isn't when someone is seriously building positions, but the bears are forced to close out, and combined with chasing positions, the price is pushed up. Once this momentum fades, without real money to buy, the price naturally returns to the same place. If you chased BICO's 39 points at the peak, you'd be stuck halfway up the mountain.
I looked into the logic behind it. BICO is Biconomy's token, designed for on-chain transaction gas payments. The story itself isn't bad, but today's wave feels more like an emotional pulse catalyzed by news, not a fundamental turning point. A project with a solid foundation is a whole market sentiment gap between whether to chase it today or not. Once the news passes, funds move on to the next target.
Looking at this in the broader market, it's even clearer. BTC has been hovering around 64,952 for over two months, with the 200-week moving average at 63,657. As soon as you step in, volume doesn't follow. When the Bitcoin doesn't move, funds go to the altar to seek presence, so you'll see isolated pulses that rise and fall quickly, with no sustain. In this environment, a single upper shadow is more worth remembering than a bullish candle.
The most common mistake ordinary people make when facing this is being envious of the rally. The livelier the group, the more calm you should be. A coin with real market value won't just give you an upper shadow and then stop; it will keep giving you chances to get in. Those coins that rush forward and don't look back are usually impossible for you to squeeze in; when you do, it's your turn to take over.
My own silly method is to cross out a long upper shadow from the selection list first, then wait until it can properly reclaim the high point of the upper shadow before discussing it. If it can't be restored, treat it as a one-day trip. This method may be silly, but it helped me avoid the embarrassment of chasing the top more than once and saved a lot of capital.
Let me ask you something. Did you have any knockoffs that surged today? Are you still holding on, or have they already fallen back?A stablecoin that no one talks about grows to 3.5 billion in a year
Many people may be hearing the name USDG for the first time. It is a stablecoin led by Paxos, backed by shareholders like Kraken, Robinhood, and Galaxy. In just one year, its market value grew from zero to $3.5 billion. In the stablecoin market dominated solely by USDT, growing from nothing to this scale is quite a striking figure.
What's even more intriguing is where the money actually comes from. Of this 3.5 billion, 1.95 billion is invested on OKX's X Layer. X Layer is OKX's own public chain; in other words, the exchange is moving its stablecoin liquidity onto its own chain. This move isn't new, but at this scale, the exchange has shifted its chain logic from simply issuing tokens to holding the settlement layer in its own hands.
Why now? The U.S. stablecoin bill has been pushed forward, giving compliance a window so new players no longer have to run in the gray zone like they did in the past. USDG follows a path of full reserves and monthly audits, fitting this trend. The moat built by older stablecoins through first-mover advantages and gray areas may not remain stable under the new rules. Once regulators set the table straight, newcomers can actually move forward lightly.
Let's turn the camera back to the pool data we've been following. USDT fell from 184.2 billion to 183.1 billion, USDC from 73.28 billion to 72.15 billion, a total decrease of 2.23 billion in a month. The market is shrinking, but USDG is growing against the trend, indicating that money isn't disappearing, it's changing names. This kind of switching usually starts with real on-chain circulation, and by the time ordinary people notice, the market share has already shifted.
For ordinary people like us, the significance of this isn't about sentiment. The stablecoin battlefield has long been about who has higher interest rates, but whose on-chain ecosystem can handle real payments and DeFi flows. If a new coin dares to grow so much in a year, there must be real on-chain backflows supporting it, not just volume boosting.
My usual approach is to see a new stablecoin gaining volume, first check its transfer count and active addresses on-chain, rather than just focusing on market cap numbers. Market cap can be packaged; on-chain activity can't deceive people.
Another easily overlooked point is concentration. 1.95 billion Li is on an exchange chain, meaning the safety of this USDG batch is deeply tied to the OKX chain. If the chain runs smoothly, it will run smoothly; if something happens on the chain, liquidity will run faster than anyone else's. The newer the stablecoin, the more caution it should be kept.
When you usually use stablecoins, do you stick to one company or mix several of them?Last week, those who were just forced to cut losses after being chased turned around and dumped $500 million
Last Wednesday, the Situational Awareness fund's approximately $16 billion long-short portfolio was sold in a package to Citadel. The seller is Leopold Aschenbrenner, 25, a former member of OpenAI's super-alignment team. That deal wasn't what he wanted; it was after several prime Wall Street brokers almost simultaneously sent margin call notices, leaving him with no choice.
In July, the value of his portfolio dropped 67%. The fund size shrank from 20 billion to around 10 billion, with 5 billion of that being Anthropic's private equity, which cannot be converted to cash in the short term. Discounts exceeding 10% Selling open market stocks at this price itself indicates the situation—not because he thinks it's a good deal, but because the other side knows he must sell.
Logically, the next step should be to shrink, write letters, and explain things to investors.
But on Tuesday, he invested $400 million in a chip startup called Source Foundry. Adding the $100 million he'd already invested, the total was $500 million. Bloomberg said this was the first move he saw after his fund nearly collapsed.
What is Source Foundry about? Founded in San Francisco in 2025, backed by Sequoia Capital, the two founders are Stanford materials scientist Abdulmalik Obaid and the other named Joe Burg. What they want to do is a bit scary: bypass ASML's extreme ultraviolet lithography machines and build chips in a simpler, cheaper, and faster way.
This direction is aligned with what Leopold has always said. His 165-page paper centers on the core judgment that computing power, electricity, and data centers will become the real bottlenecks for AI. AI's demand for computing power is rising exponentially, chip production capacity can only expand linearly, and the gap in the middle keeps widening. He's betting on this gap.
But here's the problem: why would someone who had just been cornered by a margin call start by throwing another 400 million into a company with no products, no income, and the hardest machine in the world to challenge?
One explanation is that this money was never within the scope of the guaranteed position. Private equity doesn't need to be monitored daily and won't be forcibly liquidated due to price fluctuations. All the losses he suffered in July were on leverage in the open market—nearly four times leverage, heavy positions in storage and computing power stocks, shorting software stocks—getting hit on both sides. Moving the money to a place where daily settlement isn't needed is like pulling part of himself out of the mechanism that forced him to sell.
Another explanation is simpler. He probably doesn't think he's seeing it wrong. What got killed in July was the position structure, not the judgment itself. The recent moves in the storage chain have given him some confidence. SK Hynix just announced a new $30 billion investment in Yongin and Cheongju, and Nvidia is rumored to reduce HBM usage for Rubin Ultra to address memory shortages—upstream tension is real.
We're probably familiar with this script in our field. Every day on the chain, the exact same thing is happening: after the leverage blows up, some admit defeat and leave, while others change to a position that won't be liquidated and stay there. The only difference is that the chips in his hands are hundreds of millions of dollars, and no one can force him to hand them over.
What I'm more curious about is what investors think now. A 439% return in the first half of the year, a 67% loss in July alone, and then you see the fund manager invest 500 million yuan into a secret chip company. At this point, do you continue betting on his foresight, or do you think he's using your money to bet on a breakthrough? #🚨 US JOBS DATA JUST HIT MARKETS LIKE A TRUCK
July payrolls came in at -23K, versus expectations of +80K — the weakest print of 2026 so far.
And the bigger story is in the revisions.
📉 May + June payrolls were revised down by a combined 103K jobs.
That means three consecutive months of weaker labor data, alongside significant downward revisions. The “strong labor market” narrative is starting to crack.
Markets reacted immediately:
🔻 DXY dropped sharply
🔻 2Y Treasury yield fell ~8 bps
🔻 10Y Treasury yield fell ~6 bps
🟡 Gold jumped roughly $40
🟢 Nasdaq opened +0.77%
🟢 S&P 500 opened +0.33%
This is bigger than one disappointing jobs report.
If the labor market continues to weaken, expectations could shift from Fed tightening toward potential easing.
That could mean:
💵 A weaker dollar
📉 Lower rate expectations
💰 More liquidity flowing toward gold and crypto
🚀 A potential tailwind for risk assets
Bottom line: Labor-market momentum appears to be weakening. If upcoming reports confirm the trend, the macro narrative could shift significantly and trigger further capital rotation.
Keep a close eye on $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL.
#BTC #ETH #SOL #Macro #Fed #Crypto #PayrollsDropCPIFocusBitcoin and Ethereum market analysis on the evening of August 8: structural games in the rebound and recovery
On the evening of August 8, 2026, Bitcoin rebounded and recovered from the low of $62,228, currently holding the short-term moving average near $64,880; Ethereum simultaneously rebounded to $1,908. Combining the latest on-chain data, ETF fund flows, and macro environment, this article deeply analyzes the structural characteristics of the current market, proposes range-bound trading strategies, and warns of seasonal correction risks and potential breakdown risks in August.
1. Bitcoin (BTC): A Range-bound Dilemma in Rebound Recovery
1.1 Price Trend Review
As of the close on August 7, Bitcoin was at $64,880.19, up about 3.4% from $62,763.32 on August 1. On the daily chart, Bitcoin rebounded from a low of $62,233 (August 1) in early August, then fluctuated upward for several days, reaching $64,597 on August 5 and closing at $64,880 on August 7, showing an overall recovery pattern of "lows rising and highs moving up."
However, this rebound was not without challenges. On August 6, the price saw a slight pullback to $64,262, indicating that selling pressure still exists above. Looking at the 4-hour chart, although the price has held above the short-term moving average, trading volume has not significantly increased, indicating that the current rebound is more of a technical correction than the beginning of a new upward trend.
1.2 Key Technical Levels
Resistance levels: The $65,350–$65,720 range is the core resistance zone for the recent rebound. This range is not only the area from the highs that failed to be tested in late July (the July 24 high of $65,760 and the July 27 high of $65,658), but also the first major barrier below the 100-day moving average (around $68,750).
Support level: The $64,100–$64,450 range forms short-term support. This range corresponds to the densely traded zone from August 4 to 6; if breached, the key support below will shift down to the $62,200–$62,800 range (the low area from August 1 to 3).
1.3 Deep signals on-chain and capital flow
There is currently a vigilant contradiction in the market: whales are increasing their holdings, while long-term holders are slowing down.
According to Glassnode data, the number of whale entities holding at least 1,000 bitcoins rose from 1,263 to 1,267 in late July, indicating that major players are buying on dips. However, the "Hodler net position change" indicator fell from 29,838 on July 11 to 15,766 on July 26, a 47% decrease over two weeks.
What deserves even more attention is the flow of ETF funds. The weekly net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs plummeted from a high of $197 million on July 10 to $33.79 million on July 24, a drop of 83%. The obvious cooling of institutional funds, combined with the seasonal weakness of August's historical median drop of -7.87%, has made the current rebound foundations unstable.
1.4 Risk Warnings of Technical Forms
Observing the three-day moving average, Bitcoin has been operating in a "head and shoulders top" pattern since early March. Currently, the price is in a right-shoulder rebound phase, but trading volume continues to shrink, which is a typical "weak rally" signal.
If the three-day closing price can break above $66,885, the head-and-shoulders pattern will fail, and bulls may regain momentum; Conversely, if $60,965 is breached, the neckline will be broken, and the technical downside target could be $54,000 or even $41,266.
1.5 Operational Strategy
Long strategy: After stabilizing within the $64,100–$64,450 range, set a stop loss at $63,800 and targeting $65,300–$65,650. The core logic of this strategy is to capture rebound opportunities at the lower boundary of the range, but strict stop-loss is required, as once $63,800 is breached, the downside will open up significantly.
Short Strategy: After a surge to the $65,350–$65,720 range, establish a short position, set a stop loss at $66,000, and target $64,600–$64,200. This strategy is suitable for technical pullbacks after rebounding to the upper boundary of the range, but caution is needed regarding the risk of volume breakouts.
2. Ethereum (ETH): Double Pressure Amid a Weak Rebound
2.1 Price Trend Review
Ethereum is currently at $1908.76, down about 51.19% from $3910.94 in the same period a year ago. Since August, ETH has fluctuated higher from the $1820 low, with the 4-hour candlestick moving upward, showing a synchronized rebound in line with Bitcoin.
2.2 Key Technical Levels
Resistance levels: $1940–$1980 forms a double resistance. Near $1940 is a short-term high after multiple failed tests, while $1980 is a more important medium-term resistance near the 50-day moving average. Only by holding above $1980 can the short-term trend turn bullish.
Support: The $1900–$1865 range is a key short-term support. $1900 is the psychological roundup level, and the area around $1865 is the early August low. If $1865 is breached, the $1800 level will be tested below, and a further drop could test $1750–$1720.
2.3 Fundamental and ecological concerns
The core challenges Ethereum currently faces come from three dimensions:
First, L2 value leakage. The rise of Layer 2 networks like Arbitrum, Base, and Optimism is diverting gas fees and user activity from Ethereum mainnets, directly weakening ETH's "ultrasound money" narrative.
Second, exchange reserves have fallen to a ten-year low. As of mid-June, Ethereum exchange reserves had dropped to 14.5 million, a ten-year low. This seems positive (reduced selling pressure), but it also reflects the depletion of market liquidity—when genuine buying returns, there is limited selling to absorb, but the current issue is that buying is also scarce.
#非农意外转负, CPI becomes key to rate hikes #存储股财报后续跌. Is the AI memory bull market stable? #财报观察员: After the lock-up rebound, what is SpaceX's outlook? $BTC $ETH $BICO Currently, 2.47 million $ETH have queued to enter and stake, requiring about 43 days. Only 128 remain in the queue.
But if the new proposal EIP-8363 passes, and staked ETH reaches half of the total network supply, the new staking yield will be reduced to zero. The general idea is to discourage people from just staking and earn yields lying down.
Although Vitalik did not officially name this proposal, in fact, he had supported such a proposal several years ago.
For those already staking, if the proposal passes, interest rates will be cut, and returns will be cut from 2.6% to 1.2%.
The price improvement mainly comes from fewer token issuances. If we only roughly calculate based on the current 41 million staked volume and two yield curves, the annualized rate drops from 2.6% to 1.2%, potentially reducing issuance by about 570,000 ETH per year.
Overall, ETH's half-dead token price might be a help. The future of e-Guards 💂 might be saved.BTC Inflows Surge: Is It a Sign of a Historical Bottom?
As Bitcoin continues to decline near $64,000, Binance's Bitcoin Exchange Inflow recently recorded 228,000 BTC, marking a parabolic and sharp upward trend for several consecutive months.
Exchange Inflows: The amount of Bitcoin transferred from external wallets to exchange deposit addresses, measuring the scale of "potential active supply" that can be immediately sold in the market.
The 365-day moving average is turning upward: not a one-time peak, but a long-term trending inflow, with a single peak exceeding 320,000 BTC
Capitulation mode: As before previous major cycle lows, a large influx of locked coins from wallets floods exchanges, entering a typical redistribution phase
Key watershed: Exchange inflows indicate a sell "ready" state, so while maintaining the $60,000~$64,000 support line, it is crucial whether spot buying can absorb this
This is the high-level pressure zone where selling pressure is concentrated. If deposit momentum exhausts during the 60K line hold, then with perfect seller exhaustion, a strong bottom may form.$XAU Gold’s 7.27% weekly surge to around $4,339.75/oz looks like more than just a reaction to easing expectations.
Softer July U.S. payroll data lowered expectations for a September hike, easing pressure from the dollar and real yields. At the same time, safe-haven demand, investment flows, and continued central-bank buying added another layer of support.
The key distinction is durability. If this rally is mainly driven by easing expectations, it remains highly dependent on upcoming U.S. economic data. But if safe-haven and allocation flows continue, the move could have stronger foundations.
With COMEX speculative net longs already around 132,398 contracts, positioning is also relatively crowded, leaving less room for disappointing data.
My take: gold is currently trading on both narratives, with macro factors still driving the bigger picture.
Not financial advice — just analysis.
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus
#AIMemoryStressTest
#SpaceXUnlockRebound If the BTC stolen from Coldcard users is actually recovered, returning it to the rightful victims would be complicated.
The concern is that after the low-entropy seed vulnerability was discovered, attackers may still be able to figure out some of the old wallet seeds and control addresses connected to those wallets.
So simply sending the recovered BTC back to the original addresses isn't a reliable way to prove who owns the funds. An attacker who has the old seed could potentially sign transactions from the same addresses too.
The proposed solution is:
Old addresses: Use them only to determine how much each victim lost.
Ownership verification: Confirm victims using evidence from before the incident, such as withdrawal records, police reports, or platform records.
Refunds: Send compensation only to new wallet addresses generated from fresh, high-entropy seeds.
Use additional verification, a waiting period, and small test transactions before sending the full amount.
Bottom line: The original BTC amounts can be returned, but the original compromised addresses should not be used for refunds.This nonfarm payroll has poured cold water on the market, but I believe we shouldn't rush to interpret it as a "Fed pivot"; more accurately, the market is repricing its September policy path.
In July, U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, far below the market's expected growth of about 80,000, while the May and June employment figures were revised down by a combined 103,000. After the data was released, the market quickly reduced its bets on a rate hike in September, with the probability of a hike dropping to about 44%.
In the short term, this is certainly positive for risk assets.
Because over the past few months, the market has been worried about the issue that the economy is too strong for the Fed to relax. But now that employment data is starting to show signs of cooling, funds naturally start trading ahead of expectations of "easing policy pressure."
However, what I focus on more is another detail:
Although the unemployment rate has dropped to 4.1%, it's not because the job market has clearly strengthened, but more because of a drop in labor force participation. In other words, the U.S. job market isn't suddenly collapsing, but is cooling down gradually.
So what truly determines the market's direction next isn't the non-farm payrolls, but the CPI.
If the next CPI continues to fall, the market will further confirm that "the cooling employment is enough to suppress inflationary pressure," strengthening expectations for maintaining interest rates in September and even shifting future policies.
However, if CPI rises again, especially if core inflation fluctuates, the Fed may still send hawkish signals again.
For the crypto market, I won't go fully long just because of a weak nonfarm payroll.
My approach leans more toward this:
In the short term, focus on rebound opportunities brought by improved liquidity expectations; in the medium term, continue to wait for confirmation from inflation data.
Many past markets have been like this—the market trades expectations first, then data. When everyone starts betting on rate cuts, it's actually important to be alert to whether expectations have already been priced in advance.
So my current judgment is:
The nonfarm payroll changed the rate hike narrative, but CPI only determines the next phase of the market.
If CPI continues to cool, BTC and high-valuation growth assets may see a better liquidity environment; But if inflation rises again, the market will once again trade "higher interest rates, longer duration."
The most important thing now is not to guess whether there will be a rate hike in September, but to observe whether the Fed can still trust these two targets—employment and inflation—which is dominating.
#非农意外转负, CPI is the key $BTC for rate hikes "Say Things Without Saying Anything, Say Things Hard When Nothing Matters"
📌 Dual catalyst implementation | Nonfarm payroll data surprise + crypto bill delay, hidden market opportunities in the crypto market
🌐 Macro Perspective | Nonfarm payroll data falls far short of expectations, and easing expectations support market confidence
Key employment data overview: Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000, unemployment rebounded to 4.1%, and labor force participation hit a five-year low of 61.4%.
Internal logic breakdown: The weakening labor market is clear, with the market directly lowering the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in September. Both the US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure and falling, and expectations of global liquidity easing are heating up.
$BTC itself possesses both the safe-haven and speculative attributes of digital gold, so liquidity easing naturally attracts capital inflows; Combined with the Fed's policy recess window from August to September, the overall macro environment favors the crypto market, and each round of price corrections represents a low-level positioning opportunity.
⚖ Regulatory Dimension | The CLARITY bill vote has been postponed to September, giving the wrong chip some room to recover
Data reference: The probability of the bill being implemented and passed this year remains at only 35.5%, with the figure continuing to decline
1. Short-term negative news has been fully digested
Previously, the market had already priced in regulatory headwinds, and the $XRP and compliance trading sectors had already undergone a round of sell-offs. After the Senate postponed its vote, there will be no more unexpected regulatory suppression in the short term, and the negative factors will basically be gone.
2. The medium- to long-term ambush logic still holds
The bill was already passed by a high vote in the House of Representatives. The current stagnation is only due to disagreements over ethical provisions within the Democratic Party. Once negotiations resume in September, the certainty of its implementation remains high. Currently, retail investors are panicking and fleeing, pushing valuations to low levels—this is a window for positioning.
📈 Two main lines of layout are divided
▫️ Stable blue chip bottom positions: $BTC, $ETH
Relying on macro liquidity dividends to emerge from a recovery rally, it has strong resilience to regulatory news disturbances, making it suitable for long-term holding in bottom positions
▫️ Expectation reversal game line: platform token $BNB
Betting on the warming atmosphere of the September bill negotiations has driven a valuation rebound, benefiting from regulatory concerns and a reversal in the market
⚠ Risk control reminder
In the short term, market volatility will increase significantly, so it is essential to maintain light positions and gradually allocate positions; Focus on the September Senate reconciliation vote, as policy changes will directly affect market trends. $XAU #非农意外转负, CPI is the key #黄金升破4300美元 for rate hikes: Are funds on hold or are rates cut or safe havens? The writer believes that BTC and ETH have already reached their major bottoms and that the market could begin moving upward from August.
The main idea is:
- The extreme panic selling in February may have marked the emotional bottom of this bear market.
- BTC, SOL, and other major cryptocurrencies have shown signs of recovery since then.
- BTC has been weak since October 2025, while ETH started declining even earlier, meaning a significant amount of the bear-market period has already passed.
- Many investors expect one final major drop in October–November, but the writer believes the market may not follow the crowd’s expectations.
- According to this view, the broader bottom came in February, while the absolute lows were formed around June–July.
- The writer compares this situation with the 2022 market bottom, suggesting that the market may now enter a period of consolidation followed by a stronger upward trend.
In short: The writer believes that people waiting for another big crash may miss the recovery because the market may have already bottomed.Unveiling the Truth 🔍 About the Meme Coin Boom: They never boast about technological innovation; their true core is a small story that can be told in three seconds and heard and then shared.
From $DOGE mocking Bitcoin like Shiba Inu, to $PEPE that sad frog, to the pink knit hat $WIF on Solana, without exception. $BONK ignited entire public chains through bear market airdrops, $FLOKI inspired by Musk's dog name, and even $TURBO designed by AI with only a $5,000 budget. These tokens circulate not as products, but as highly contagious emotional consensus.
The market is about transaction narratives, not code. Whoever can hit the public with the simplest memes can stir up a wave. The essence of meme coins is a social experiment about attention.#非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in rate hikes
Recently, I saw that the July nonfarm payroll data unexpectedly turned negative (down by 23,000 people). To be honest, my first reaction was a bit confused. But after calming down and thinking it over, I realized this isn't that simple. Everyone, please don't rush to celebrate.
1. Don't be fooled by superficial data
Although employment has decreased, the unemployment rate has actually dropped to 4.1%. Why? Because many people can't find jobs and simply quit the labor market. Plus, with AI replacing labor and tightening immigration policies, labor supply itself is shrinking.
Therefore, the "hawks" within the Fed still think inflation is too high (core PCE is still at 3.3%), and the probability of a rate hike in September is still about 40%, so it hasn't been completely out of the question.
2. The real "life or death card" is next Wednesday (August 12)
The nonfarm payrolls have come to an end, and now the entire market's attention is on the July CPI (inflation data) to be released next Wednesday. This directly determines whether the Fed will continue raising rates in September or hold steady:
* If CPI is hot (year-on-year above 3.5%): it indicates inflation is accelerating, and the probability of a rate hike in September will soar directly above 60%.
* If CPI falls more than expected (year-on-year below 3.2%): the hawks' toughest hand will be drawn, and rate hike expectations will cool significantly.
💡 My trading advice:
Next Wednesday is a critical turning point, and market volatility will be very intense before and after the data release.
* Short-term traders: It's best to hold your hands and wait for CPI data to come in and the market direction is clear before entering. Don't bet on one-sided moves.
* Long-term Allocation: If inflation data is moderate and rate hike expectations fall short, assets like gold and US Treasuries will provide good support; Conversely, if inflation rebounds, funds may flow back into the US dollar. You can observe signs of capital rotation in advance.
Don't let the monthly data mislead your rhythm. The current market logic is very fragile, entirely based on the assumption that "inflation won't cause trouble again." If the CPI data backfires, the current asset frenzy could face a rapid reversal. Investing carries risks, and financial management requires caution. Everyone must control their $BTC $ETH $XAU well Is Trump completely clashing with the Federal Reserve? The White House is targeting Cook again and keeps making small calls to Walsh. Has BTC just caught a breather only to get hit again?
Pharaoh says directly, Trump is playing with fire. The market fears uncertainty the most. The more he messes with the Fed, the greater BTC's volatility will be.
This time the White House is playing a game of rules.
The latest news is that the White House has given Cook an ultimatum to respond within three weeks to "mortgage fraud" allegations. These accusations are exactly the same as last year. Cook's lawyer fired back, calling them "completely baseless excuses." In June last year, the Supreme Court stopped Trump's removal order with a 5:4 vote, but Chief Justice Roberts left a loophole, saying the procedure could be tried again once completed. This time the White House is playing by that script again.
Who is Cook? Why is she being targeted?
She is one of the most hawkish members of the Federal Reserve. Just last week, she said she was "ready to act to support rate hikes if necessary." Trump has been pushing for rate cuts to stimulate the economy, but Cook insists on rate hikes if inflation doesn't come down, completely opposing the White House's direction. Removing her would allow them to install someone more compliant in the Fed.
An even bigger bombshell is Trump's relationship with Walsh.
The White House admits Walsh and Trump often discuss the economy. Although they don't directly discuss interest rates, this breaks the tradition of the Fed Chair maintaining distance from the White House. The market fears the Fed losing its independence the most.
What does this mean for BTC?
In the short term, the Fed's independence being challenged will itself amplify market volatility. Historically, no U.S. president has successfully removed a Fed governor. Cook will likely hold on, but the market will be driven by uncertainty in the short term. BTC hovering around 65000 will definitely see volatility once this issue escalates.
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest Let's talk about the non-agricultural data. After reading it, I was shocked and couldn't speak for a long time.
- 23,000, expected to be + 80,000, a difference of 100,000. 5 The figures for June and June were revised down by 103,000. In the first two months, I made 100,000 yuan, but this month it turned negative. The cooling speed of the job market is quite rapid. (The power of capital is still too strong)
But the unemployment rate, which fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. Jobs are shrinking and unemployment is falling, and these two numbers are a confusing signal. Wage growth has also declined, with a month-on-month growth rate of only 0.1%.
After the data came out, the probability of a rate hike in September increased from over 50% to around 44%. The market feels that the Fed can't increase.
Then the reaction on the market is very interesting, not a general rise, but a split.
$XAU broke through $4370, and futures closed at $4399.7, surpassing the 4400 level.
Weak employment → interest rate hikes and cooling → weak US dollar → rising gold, this chain runs through.
$SPCX I've been watching for the past two days.
On the day of the lifting of the lockdown, it rose by 6%, and the non-farm payrolls surged by 15.83%, closing at $133.11. From near 105 to 133, the cumulative increase in two days is about 23%. The negative impact of the lifting of the lock-up has been digested, the shorts are covering, the expectation of interest rate cut is also pushing, the rise is too strong, I am the happiest 😂
SanDisk $SNDK plummeted from 1326 to around 1200 last night, closing down 3.68%.
Weak non-farm data → Decreased expectations of interest rate hikes → High-valued growth stocks should benefit, but SanDisk has been hit.
The previous financial report exceeded expectations and fell by 7%. This time, the non-farm benefits did not recover, indicating that the valuation of AI storage has not been fully digested. Seagate fell more than 10%, Western Digital fell more than 5%,$BTC $BTC
Where has BTC gone in this bear market?
Based on the patterns of the previous three halving cycles:
📉 October 2025: Peaked at $126K → now quoted at $64.9K (pulldown -49%)
⏳ Historical bottoming window: 12-14 months after the top
🎯 Predicted bottom: September-October 2026 / $52K-$58K
Key conclusion: In terms of timing, the bear market has moved about 70%, while the magnitude has only increased by about 55%. The market is using 'time for space' to ground the bottom, rather than cutting in half.
Trade-wise: Wait and see for the middle (64.9K), but if you really get 60K/57.7K, split it as planned, hit 67K+ with volume and then add accordingly. "$ETH Not Weak Now, It's Just Squatting Before Dawn After Leveling Up and Waiting for Release"
Many people criticized $ETH: 52-week high of 4955, now 1915, down 61%; ETH/BTC hit 0.0295, a multi-year low; Mainnet gas hit freezing, burns can't keep up with issuance, short-term still "net inflation"—looks like it's useless.
But those who truly understand the lower classes are secretly adding more.
1) Pectra + Fusaka two consecutive upgrades, turning ETH from a "world computer" to an "L2 data foundation"
In May 2025, Pectra will be launched, cramming 11 EIPs into the pool at once: validator cap of 32→2048 ETH (EIP-7251), EOA can also be abstracted by account (EIP-7702), Blob target is 3→6, and cap is 6→9 (EIP-7691). In December 2025, Fusaka will be listed on PeerDAS, followed by BPO1/BPO2 pushing the Blob target all the way to 14/21, a 2.3x increase in 5 weeks.
The result is: for Arbitrum/Base/Optimism L2s, the swap cost per transaction has dropped to $0.01–0.03, mainnet gas remains stable at 8–15 Gwei, but blob on-chain volume and L2 aggregation TPS have surged to 3700 OPS/s, up +210% year-on-year. ETH no longer earns "the $5 gas you transferred on my mainnet" but instead earns "the base fee for all human rollups submitting data to me"—this is a commission from the application layer turned into an infrastructure tax.
2) The staked chassis is still being locked, and the circulating board is structurally eaten
Staked ETH across the network accounts for about 33%–34% of circulating supply, with Lido alone locking 8 million+ stETH; Whale 10K–100K ETH address groups have held a record ~19.6 million tokens. After Fusaka, 30% of Blob Base Fees have also started to be burned, and some on-chain annualized burn rates have risen from 0.89% to 1.32%—although the mainnet is not hot and there is still mild short-term inflation, the "net deflation" switch has been switched on.
3) Four consecutive ETF entries mean institutions are picking up chips at "bargain prices."
On August 7$ETH spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $49.601 million, marking the fourth consecutive day of inflows; BlackRock's ETHA consumed $38.1476 million in a single day, with a cumulative net inflow of $11.65 billion; Fidelity FETH also added $11.45 million. Another perspective (cryptoetf.today) also includes the night session on August 7, with ETH ETF net inflow of about $92.1 million in a single day—the two figures are not contradictory, just different statistical windows. Key point: BTC ETFs were also recovering in August, but ETH ETFs were the first to "climb out of the worst month of July" and are relatively more resilient.
So today's 1915 $ETH isn't a "junk coin," but a "sleeping lion" that "fixes the base layer and waits for the macro faucet to turn on."
It's not rising now because $BTC hasn't held above 65.4K yet, and rate cuts haven't materialized; But once it breaks out in sync with BTC, $ETH/$BTC returns to 0.032–0.035 as the primary target, which would yield a relative return of 12%–18% for ETH spot — that's why smart money is grinding below 1900.
In short: those who criticize ETH are watching candlesticks, while those buying $ETH are watching the 2027 Blob fees and staking locks.
$ETH The only stable profitable target with positive operating cash flow comes from U.S. Treasury reserve interest, with a sustainable business model with virtually no marginal cost; Extremely low debt, healthy balance sheet, unaffected by sharp industry cyclical fluctuations, and the only variable for profitability is the Federal Reserve interest rate. PS is only 5.83 times, lower than traditional financial giants like Visa and Mastercard. Combined with industry monopoly, valuations are reasonably low with a sufficient margin of safety; Even if the stock price drops another 30%, the valuation still holds long-term allocation value. Positions are built in batches within the 60-38 range, with a stop-loss of 35, a single stop-loss of 2%, and a take-profit of 135.🔥 The White House has taken action again, this time with Cook.
Last August, Trump made his first attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. The reason was mortgage filing issues, claiming she had "principal residence" written on both properties. Cook immediately sued Trump, and the lawsuit went all the way to the Supreme Court.
At the end of June this year, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4: Trump cannot remove Cook now because the procedure was wrong and he was not given a chance to defend himself. But Chief Justice Roberts added: You can try again, as long as the procedure is correct this time.
So this week, the White House sent another letter to Cook. The letter required her to provide "an explanation and corresponding evidence for the false statements" within three weeks. In plain language: Last time I failed the procedure and you won the lawsuit; this time, I'm following the rules and will fire you as usual.
This is the first time in the Fed's 111-year history that a president has been determined to remove a board member.
Why insist on firing her?
Cook was nominated by Biden and will serve until 2038. She is cautious in interest rate decisions and does not support Trump's approach of "aggressive rate cuts to stimulate the economy." Trump wants to replace his own people. If Cook leaves, Trump nominates another "obedient" board member, and his people will be more than half of the Fed's board.
By then, even if Powell wanted to hawk, he wouldn't be able to do so.
What does this mean for the crypto world?
Viewed in two layers.
In the short term, it is bearish. The Fed's independence is eroded by politics, causing market panic. The credit of the US dollar is being questioned, and funds will flock to gold and the yen as safe havens. As a risk asset, BTC is very likely to fluctuate along with US stocks.
But in the long run, this could be one of BTC's biggest positive factors.
Think about it, what is the core narrative of BTC? Decentralization, anti-censorship, ownerless currency. If the Federal Reserve becomes a political tool, the credit foundation of the dollar will be shaken. At that point, global demand for "non-sovereign assets" will explode. Gold is the first choice, BTC is secondary, but growth may be even faster.
When the Fed implemented unlimited QE in 2020, BTC rose from 3,000 to 60,000. If the Fed's independence crisis deepens this time, history may repeat itself, but on a higher scale.
My judgment
This time, the White House is re-entering the process, showing Trump is serious. Although the Supreme Court stopped him last time, it didn't close the door tightly. If the procedure goes correctly this time, the chances of Cook being removed are quite high.
For trading brothers, this is not news to be ignored. The political removal of Federal Reserve governors affects market long-term confidence more than any CPI data.
Operationally:
1. Don't heavily invest in short-term positions or bet on direction. Political events are more uncertain than data; inserting pins is normal.
2. In the medium to long term, if the Fed's independence is truly undermined, BTC's "digital gold" narrative will turn from a slogan into reality. But it's not that point yet; don't rush to go all in.
3. Pay attention to gold trends. Gold is the most sensitive indicator of the Federal Reserve's independence crisis. If gold continues to hit new highs while BTC remains unmoved, it indicates that funds have not yet treated BTC as a safe-haven asset.
4. Next week's CPI will remain a short-term key. But don't forget, CPI is just a number; the Fed's independence is the foundation.
The more Trump messes with the Fed, the more dangerous the long-term credit of the dollar becomes. For the crypto world, this may be one of the most important macro variables in the coming years.
Do you think Trump can successfully remove Cook this time? If it really happens, will BTC rise or fall? Let's talk in the comments.
#白宫再次推动罢免美联储理事丽莎 Cook After seeing the nonfarm payroll data, I was stunned
Added by -23,000 (expected +80,000), with a total downward revision of 103,000 for May/June, indicating rapid employment decline;
Contradiction: Employment contracted, but the unemployment rate was 4.2% → 4.1%, and wages only 0.1% month-on-month, signaling a split signal.
Expectations for a rate hike in September have dropped to around 44%.
Market Divergence Significantly:
▪️XAU Gold: Breakout above 4400, rate cut expectations flow smoothly
▪️SPCX: Unlocking + Non-farm Payroll Dual Catalyst, two-day self-price from 105→133, cumulative +23%
▪️SNDK SanDisk: Bucking the trend amid favorable conditions, AI storage valuations remain undigested, Seagate and Western Digital both plunged
▪️BTC: Pulse weakening, clearly weaker than gold
The data is inherently contradictory, making it difficult for the market to form a consensus expectation, with the focus awaiting next week's CPI.
#非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in rate hikes I believe both BTC and ETH have bottomed out, and starting from August, they will oscillate upwards.
Those waiting for the final drop will eventually miss the opportunity.
Reason: From an emotional perspective, the extreme panic low of this year's bear market appeared in February, which is a bottom signal.
BTC, SOL, and others have all proven this. In terms of timing, a typical bear market lasts about a year. BTC has been continuously declining without warming up since October 2025.
ETH started its bear trend as early as August, falling continuously for half a year. The acceleration in time has shortened the space. Regarding retail consensus, everyone believes there will be a final drop in October-November, which would be an excellent bottom-fishing opportunity.
According to the 80/20 rule, it is unlikely to follow this script.
I believe the bottom was reached in February, and the absolute bottom was in June-July.
This is similar to the bottom in June 2022, followed by six months of oscillation and an absolute bottom in November, which means the market is about to start soon.
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound AMD Micro Computer $SMCI earnings report imminent, with options pricing fluctuating sharply by 17%. The core issue is whether the $60 billion backlog in orders can be converted into $11 billion to $12.5 billion in revenue, while maintaining a gross margin of 15% to 17%.
The order of capital competition driving market capital games is: settlement efficiency in order conversion to quarterly cash flow, resilience to the 15% gross margin floor, and the speed at which institutions exit positions under high implied volatility pressure.
The upward scenario must meet the upper baseline of quarterly revenue surpassing $11 billion and gross margin reaching 15% to 17%. At this point, shipment scale effectively absorbs supply chain costs, cash flow is smooth, and high volatility will be converted into buying momentum for an upward breakout. If gross margin falls below 15%, even if revenue meets targets, profit logic will be weakened.
The downward scenario was triggered by shipment delays, dragging quarterly revenue below $11 billion. If $60 billion orders remain stuck in the cash flow chain and cannot be recovered, high implied volatility in options easily squeezes long positions, triggering profit-taking sell-offs and stampede.
The risk appetite of the AI server industry chain depends entirely on the fulfillment of this round of hardware expansion cycles. As long as delivery delays slow capital recovery, risk appetite in the computing power sector will quickly tighten.
The most important variable to watch in the next seven days is management's specific timing of converting $60 billion in backlog orders into quarterly cash flow after the earnings release.
#标普收盘再创新高. Expectations for 8,000 points heat up. #黄金升破4300美元, are funds backing interest rate cuts or risk aversion? #白宫再次推动罢免美联储理事丽莎. Cook#非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in rate hikes
I'm Awei, and the nonfarm payroll data is explosive. New jobs were negative by 23,000, while the market expected 80,000. The previous figure was revised down from 57,000 to -76,000, and for May and June, the total was 103,000. But the unemployment rate actually dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, because the labor force participation rate fell, not because employment was getting stronger. Employment turned negative and unemployment rates fell—these two events happening simultaneously indicate a structural problem. Large-scale layoffs in government departments are the main drag, and the private sector isn't doing much better—companies are cutting back on hiring. But the unemployment rate is still falling because fewer people are looking for jobs, not because the job market is getting better. This structure is very similar to the early stages of a recession: total employment is shrinking, but the unemployment rate hasn't started rising sharply yet. After the nonfarm payroll announcement, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from over 50% to 44%, while Kalshi showed a 65% probability of keeping rates unchanged. The interest rate market is moving dovish, but the divergence is not over. Fed officials and some institutions still believe sticky inflation is a core risk, and if CPI strengthens again next week, rate hike expectations could rebound at any time. The trading theme has changed; it's no longer about who can outperform whom, but whether CPI will rewrite September policy pricing after the nonfarm payroll upset. The direct impact on BTC's short-term trend is very clear. Employment data is far below expectations, the probability of a September rate hike has declined, the dollar weakening, and risk assets have benefited in the short term. BTC surged rapidly from around 64,750, reaching a high above 65,500, with short liquidation zones being touched and short squeezes being realized. After breaking through 65,000, the next resistance zone is between 66,000 and 66,500 above. The positive news from weak nonfarm payroll data is still taking effect, and the short-term bullish trend is likely to continue. Next week's CPI will be the real test. If CPI data is strong, rate hike expectations will surge again, and BTC may pull back to 63,500 to 64,000. If CPI data is weak and rate cut expectations heat up, BTC could challenge 67,000 to 68,000. The nonfarm payrolls have already flipped the table, and CPI will determine whether this round of rally rebounds or a reversal. Before the data is released, don't hold positions too heavily; set stop-losses and wait for CPI to decide the next direction.
Awei finished speaking.
Think carefully.
$BTC $ETH $ETH long. Guys, this looks like a good secondary test setup. After that dip, a clean lower low was formed, which is a bullish signal. And the trend on the moving averages (MAs) still maintains a positive slope, so the support strength remains. I'm bullish here and prepare to retest that local high. If it pulls back and confirms here, I'll go in. If it breaks below the support at the recent lower low, however, I will exit quickly.
Plan (only 15 minutes): Entry approximately 1,919.21 · Stop loss 1,897.79 · Target 1,943.00 · Risk-reward 1.11
Only 15 minutes—not just a single wave price point judgment.阻力位的假突破：做市商是如何利用你的“技术形态”掠夺流动性的？
在加密市场的K线图上，阻力位的突破向来是技术派交易员最兴奋的时刻。当价格放量击穿关键阻力，均线系统呈现完美的金叉，大多数散户会毫不犹豫地挂单追高，觉得这是单边主升浪启动的铁证。但对于在这个市场里交过高昂学费的交易老手来说，这种教科书般的“突破”，往往是做市商（Market Maker）精心布置的流动性掠夺陷阱。
这背后折射出的是散户的静态图表思维，与做市商动态订单簿逻辑之间的深层认知鸿沟。
散户看的是历史K线和静态几何图形，而做市商看的是实时的委托单深度（Order Book Depth）以及挂在特定点位下方的清算清算图。在当前加密市场流动性整体萎缩的存量博弈大环境里，做市商的核心任务不是去预测方向，而是寻找交易对手盘来完成自己的头寸清算。阻力位上方密集挂着的散户追多买单，就是做市商眼中最完美的对手盘流动性。
我们可以拆解一个做市商算法最经典的“阻力位扫损”操作案例。
假设比特币在65000美元形成了一个强阻力位，散户在此处积累了大量的空单，并把止损单挂在65200美元上方；同时，大批突破派多头也在65200美元挂了“破位追多”的限价单。这时候，做市商算法会通过主动买单（Market Buy）轻轻把价格往上推过65200美元。
一旦突破发生，大量的空单止损（被迫买入平仓）和破位多单（建仓买入）瞬间在65200-65500美元区间被激活。
这些如潮水般涌入的主动买单，瞬间填满了盘面。而此时，早已在上方布好限价卖单（Limit Sell）的做市商，顺理成章地将大额现货出货给这些追多和止损的资金，完成了高位的流动性结转。当做市商的货出完，主动买盘后继无力，价格就会迅速掉头砸穿阻力位，在日线上留下一根非常难看的高位插针阴线。散户在图表上看到的“真突破”，在微观订单流里不过是做市商的一场完美的“流动性掠夺（Liquidity Sweep）”。
要看透这种猎杀游戏，我们必须把视线从K线图移开，盯紧微观层面的订单流指标。
我个人在面对关键阻力位时，有一套非常严苛的过滤规则。我绝对不会在突破发生的第一时间去左侧追多。我会拉出主动成交量差值（CVD）和未平仓合约（OI）的变化。如果价格突破了阻力位，但CVD并没有显著的多头净流入，甚至OI在突破瞬间出现大幅下行，这说明价格上涨纯粹是由空头被迫止损（被动买单）和做市商算法敲上去的，没有任何真实的现货主动建仓盘。这种“无量虚胖”的突破，在我的系统里一律判定为高危陷阱。
趋势跟踪的核心，是在高胜率和高安全边界之间做抉择。With AMD Micro Computer's earnings report approaching, over $60 billion in backlogged orders and a revised gross margin guidance of 15% to 17% have tightly stuck market sentiment on the edge of shipment fulfillment and cash flow pressure.
The options market saw sharp ups and downs in pricing on $SMCI earnings day, with funds concentrating on whether revenue guidance could be delivered to the $11 billion to $12.5 billion range.
The efficiency of converting high backlog orders into actual revenue is directly affecting the market's risk appetite and the speed of capital recovery for the entire AI server industry chain.
If gross margin can remain above 15%, it means delivery scale is effectively absorbing high supply chain costs; otherwise, the massive order backlog may become an implicit accumulation in the capital chain.
As long as AI server deliveries remain smooth and gross margins reach the upper level of guidance, institutional positions may break upward. However, if shipment delays slow cash flow, the upward logic will immediately fail.
If supply chain delivery is delayed and revenue settlement is dragged down, high implied volatility in options can easily trigger profit-taking sell-offs. Only when orders are digested faster than expected can selling pressure be stopped.
If quarterly revenue fails to surpass the $11 billion threshold, market confidence in the AI hardware expansion cycle will be directly undermined.
The most important variable to watch in the next seven days is management's timing of converting $60 billion in orders into quarterly cash flow after the earnings release.
#Polymarket洽谈10亿美元融资, valuations exceed $20 billion #Coldcard旧固件漏洞损失扩大 #CLARITY表决推迟至9月, regulatory window moves backwardOn August 8, I watched the market and was more concerned about a contrast today: ETF funds have returned, but on-chain liquidity hasn't significantly expanded yet.
Farside shows that on August 5, 6, and 7, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw net inflows of $244.4 million, $137.6 million, and $101.7 million respectively, totaling about $484 million over three trading days. This means institutions have not withdrawn, at least are still buying on pullbacks. However, the price reaction was not particularly strong: around 19:31, BTC-USDT was about $64,977, with a 24-hour range of $64,519-65,388; Binance was at about $64,974 at the same time. ETH was also only holding near $1,920.
Therefore, I wouldn't directly interpret ETF inflows as a 'must break through.' DeFiLlama showed the total market capitalization of stablecoins during the same period was about $300.665 billion, but over the 7th it only increased by about $614 million, or +0.2%, and on the 30th, it was still -0.67%. This is more like bottom-tier buying holding up BTC, rather than the overall market risk appetite opening up.
The next key question is: Can net ETF inflows be sustained and steadily push BTC away from around 65,000? Or will we wait for stablecoin supply and spot trading to recover together before altcoins and DeFi will feel more viable? #BTC #ETF #CryptoGold surged 7% for the week, with the central bank buying, institutions rushing, and aunties chasing—is it still a good time to get on board now? To start with the conclusion: this round of gold is not a "gambling on rate cuts" or simply "avoiding risk"; it is three forces working together as one. Geopolitical chaos controls risk avoidance, nonfarm payrolls manage interest rates, and the central bank's purchase of gold is a backup plan. Walking on three legs together, so the weekly gain can be 7%. You ask me whether my funds are betting on interest rate cuts or risk avoidance? My answer is: only children make choices; this wave of adults wants it all. Let's start with the most unusual incident. The Strait of Hormuz has closed, Iraq's oil exports have been cut by 75%, and Iran has even bombed oil tankers in the UAE. According to the old script, in a supply crisis of this scale, oil prices should skyrocket, inflation expectations rise, rate hike expectations heat up, and gold should be suppressed. But what about this time? Oil prices are falling, and gold is going crazy. Why? Because the US suffered a major upset in July's nonfarm payrolls—employment numbers directly declined. The market saw the economy was so weak, why would you still raise interest? Expectations for a rate hike in September were immediately suppressed. Once the dollar and real interest rates are relaxed, half of gold's "financial attributes" will be brightened. On one side, the strait is closed, and the sense of avoidance cannot be suppressed; On one hand, rate hike expectations have collapsed, lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold. Previously, these two logics always clashed, but this time, for the first time, they resonate in the same direction. This golden wave is a double kill. And where the money comes from—that's the most crucial point. According to CFTC data, as of August 4, COMEX gold speculative net long positions had surged to 132,000 contracts; gold ETFs increased by 2Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on new route coordinates, but the strait is still a long way from truly reopening—Old Mo tells you that oil price risks don't dissipate so easily
Brothers, there's new news about the Strait of Hormuz, but Old Mo advises you not to jump to conclusions.
Let's talk about progress first—there really is progress.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ghaliba Badi stated on August 5 that the agreement between Iran and Oman regarding commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz is nearing finalization. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Bagae also said that both sides have agreed on the geographic coordinates of the proposed new route, and the joint statement has entered the final review stage.
Based on currently disclosed information, the new arrangement roughly follows this: the existing two waterways—the northern route on the Iranian side and the southern route on the Oman side—are both closed. Instead, a new temporary route passing through Iranian territorial waters is expected to be used for 2 to 4 months. Sources say the provisional agreement is initially set for 60 days, with no tolls charged during those 60 days.
The U.S. side is also optimistic. Treasury Secretary Besent once claimed the agreement "could be reached today or tomorrow." A spokesperson for Qatar's Foreign Ministry said the U.S.-Iran negotiations have entered a "very deep stage."
Oil prices plummeted in response. Brent dropped 11.9% cumulatively over two trading days, plunging from above $80 to $79.36. The market once thought the "war premium" was about to be cleared out.
But Old Mo tells you, things are far from that simple.
First, Iran said the agreement does not mean reopening.
Bagae's exact words were very direct: Iyah reached an agreement does not mean the Strait of Hormuz will resume safe navigation. The closure of the strait stems from U.S. military actions and maritime blockades against Iran; as long as these "threatening actions" remain, the security situation in the strait will not fundamentally improve.
Second, the U.S. blockade continues.
On August 3, the U.S. Central Command stated that the U.S. military continues to strictly enforce the blockade on Iran. On August 6, Trump said the U.S. Navy is carrying out blockade operations against Iran and controlling the relevant waters. As of August 6, the U.S. maritime blockade has forced 48 commercial ships attempting to enter and exit Iranian ports to change course. Iran has also made it clear: even if an agreement is reached with Oman, if the U.S. does not lift the blockade on Iranian ports and does not resume fulfilling previous memorandums of understanding, the strait will remain closed.
Third, Iran is pushing for more radical programs at the parliamentary level.
On August 6, the Iranian parliament released a preliminary text of the proposed strategic management plan for the Strait of Hormuz, which includes banning U.S. and Israeli vessels from passing through the strait, with violators facing fines of up to 20% of the value of the goods. Salimi, a member of the Iranian parliament's presidium, publicly disclosed the plan.
The plan is still under review, but the direction is clear—Iran wants not just temporary flights, but permanent control arrangements.
Fourth, the charging issue was never agreed upon.
Iran once demanded a fee of 5% to 7% of the value of goods; Oman negotiated about 3%, but the US insisted on free charges. The provisional agreement said no fees for 60 days, but what happens after 60 days? No one is filling this hole.
Has the risk of oil prices cooled down? It has dropped in the short term, but it hasn't dispersed.
Brent fell from a high of $115 all the way down to below $80, and the war premium has indeed squeezed out a large chunk. Goldman Sachs' judgment is that until a new U.S.-Iran agreement is confirmed or the conflict escalates significantly, Brent is expected to remain in the $80 to $90 per barrel range.
A verbal draft agreement does not mean there are actually oil tankers passing through the strait. 60 days of temporary arrangements, 30 days of mine clearance, approval by the Iranian parliament, and whether the US lifts the blockade—if any link goes wrong, oil prices immediately rebound.
Back to the market.
BTC's latest price is around 64,800-65,000, trading within the 64,200-65,300 range for 24 hours. ETH is trading around 1,900-1,920. Bitcoin surged sharply without falling with oil prices, indicating the market is still waiting—the protocol hasn't finished its mark, and no one dares to heavily bet on direction.
Lao Mo said a few words about the operation.
If Bitcoin pulls back to 64,200-64,400 and stabilizes, consider light positions and test long. Set stop-loss below 63,800, targeting 65,300-65,500. If volume drops below 63,800 or even breaks below 63,500, hold fast and avoid bottom-fishing. ETH also looks for stabilization and long positions at 1890-1900, stop loss below 1860, target 1940-1950.
Before the agreement is finalized, oil prices and the market promise will be in a tug-of-war. Don't chase after a "near-reach" agreement; wait until it's signed in black and white.
Do you think the Hormuz agreement can truly be operated within 60 days? Let's discuss in the comments.
If you think Lao Mo has broken it down clearly, give a like and follow. I'll call you right after the agreement is implemented. $BTC $ETH $BICO #霍尔木兹谈判取得进展, has the oil price risk cooled down? The Senate has postponed the CLARITY Act until September.
Thune said the unsayable as he left: "The Democrats insist on no Clarity vote."
The real blocker is an ethics provision proposed by Tillis and Gallego that would force the president and senior officials to divest any holdings worth more than $1 million in any digital asset company if that stake exceeds 10% of the company's total value. This is tailored for one person, and everyone knows who that is.
The bill passed the House in July 2025 by a vote of 294-134. It passed the Senate Banking Committee in May by 15-9. Bill 423 has been on the schedule since June 1, and leadership can arrange a full chamber vote at any time. Thune promised a vote before the August 3 recess. Four days later, it will be September.
This week, the full chamber time is allocated for: government funding, a Russian sanctions bill, and a batch of nominations.
The odds on Polymarket that it becomes law this year have dropped from 30% a week ago to 15.5%. #白宫再次推动罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克 #霍尔木兹谈判取得进展，油价风险降温了吗？ #西联稳定币卡落地，Visa支付场景再推进 号称金融创新的预测市场却在用赌场的方式报价
八月八日，美国商品期货交易委员会的两个部门联合发了一封信。收信人是所有做事件合约的受监管机构，内容核心只有一句，你们展示价格的方式可能在误导用户。
监管点名的是一个细节，美式赔率。就是体育博彩里常见的那种写法，一个数字前面带加号或者减号，告诉你押一百块能赢多少。看起来直观，赢多少一目了然。
但事件合约本来不是这么定价的。它的价格是零到一美元之间的一个数，五毛三就是市场认为这件事有五成三的可能会发生。这个数字背后有买卖盘，有深度，有你下单会把价格推多远。换成赔率之后，这些全没了，你只看得到能赢多少倍。
CFTC说得很直白，用赔率格式展示，可能让用户搞不清自己在交易什么，也拿不到市场深度和价格冲击这些关键信息。监管还要求，展示的信息得让消费者明白，这是在受监管交易所交易的衍生品，不是那种利润率更高、价格不由市场决定的产品。
这句话其实挺重的。翻译一下就是，别把一个金融合约包装成一个庄家产品。
更狠的在后面。CFTC说，展示误导性定价信息，可能违反联邦法律里关于禁止使用操纵手段的规定。而且平台不能只管自己，还得管住中介、关联方和合作伙伴。你的推广渠道怎么写价格，也算你的责任。
这封信来得不算突然。Kalshi因为事件合约正在被纽约州指控，Polymarket的结算机制和广告问题也一直被盯着。前几天九名民主党参议员刚联名要求禁掉野火相关的盘口，理由是可能鼓励纵火。监管的动作在明显密集起来。
但我觉得最耐人寻味的不是监管说了什么，而是这件事本身暴露出来的东西。
预测市场这两年最爱讲的故事是，我们不是赌场，我们是信息市场，我们比民调准，比媒体快。这套说法确实有它的道理，Polymarket的月访问量已经超过FanDuel、DraftKings和Kalshi三家加起来，估值传闻也到了两百亿。
可如果你的产品真的是在做信息定价，为什么界面要长得像体育博彩，为什么要用赔率而不是概率？答案可能很简单，因为赔率的转化率更高。概率是让人思考的，赔率是让人下注的。
监管这次并没有说你不能开盘口，只说了你报价的方式得像个金融产品。听上去只是改个显示格式，其实是在逼平台回答一个问题，你到底希望用户用哪种脑子来用你。
咱们说白了，同一个五毛三的价格，写成概率和写成赔率，看的人心态完全不一样。前者你会想这事到底能不能成，后者你只会算这把能翻几倍。
那你们觉得，如果哪天所有预测市场都被要求改回百分比显示，交易量会掉多少？$BICO 这两天涨幅非常惊人。 从数据上来看，现在已经有很多的空投被爆掉了。 按理来说，有这么多的空投被爆了，庄家的货应该也出完了。 我记得，之前的$UB 就是这种情况，之后$UB 就暴跌了。 —————————————————— 我们看一下它的合约数据。 可以发现，在今天中午的时候，它的合约多空比是有一次迅速的上涨的。 但是，它的合约持仓量并不是和多空比同步到达高点，而是呈现一个先上涨后下降的趋势。 我个人认为，中午的时候应该是有很多多头进场的，这些多头进场的目的就是为了爆空。 它们也确确实实做到了，因为数据显示当时是有很多空头走的。 在那个价位空头走，那其实就是说明空投被爆了。 我个人也是能够体会到的。 因为我自己也是持有它的空单，在中午的时候确实ADL 预警了，在补充了保证金之后才在ADL 平仓顺序中靠后了。 —————————————————— 我并不能确保我的判断完全正确。 但是从我自己的感觉讲，我自己确确实实是能够体会到中午的那一波杀空的。 当时$BICO 那种情况，和之前$MMT 插针差不多。 我个人认为，$BICO 应该是要见顶了。 这个位置就算不去空，也最好不要再去What's the current situation with the three storage fools? $SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX
What exactly is the AI storage pyramid?
This diagram actually clearly illustrates the storage system of AI servers:
The higher you go, the faster the speed and the smaller the capacity; The lower you go, the larger the capacity and the lower the cost.
SRAM: The cache inside the GPU chip. It is the fastest but has very limited capacity, mainly storing data that the GPU needs immediately.
HBM: The core high-bandwidth memory of current AI GPUs. It is responsible for quickly "feeding data" to GPUs, offering fast speed and high bandwidth, but is expensive and has limited capacity.
HBF: High Bandwidth Flash. It can be understood as a new level between HBM and SSD. It is not as fast as HBM, but has greater capacity and lower cost. In the future, it can store large AI data such as model weights and KV cache.
SSD: The largest and cheapest capacity, but relatively slow, mainly responsible for training data, model files, and cold data.
Therefore, in the future, AI servers may form:
SRAM → HBM → HBF → SSD
What truly deserves attention is HBF.
In the past, the biggest winner in AI storage was HBM; If HBF is truly commercialized, NAND could also move from ordinary storage media into high-performance AI storage systems.
This could be the next AI logic worth speculating about in the storage industry.🌙 Evening Market Report
🔴 Fed remains hawkish, September rate hike odds still above 50%.
🛢️ Oil rebounds, keeping inflation concerns alive.
📉 BTC volatility and volume have collapsed — a major move looks close.
₿ BTC stuck in the 62.5K–66.2K range.
⚠️ Volatility is exhausted, but direction remains unclear. Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls will likely decide the next breakout.
📊 Relative strength: $ETH > $BTC > $SOL
🎯 Trading Plan: • BTC: Buy support 62.2K–62.5K, trim near 66K.
• ETH: Preferred long on dips.
• SOL: Weakest chart, rallies may be short opportunities.
🧯 Don't chase moves before NFP. Wait for breakout + volume confirmation.
#BTC #ETH #Crypto
�I can make it even shorter (X/Twitter style, under 280 characters) if you want.10. U.S. data center construction spending jumped 46% YoY in June to a record $68B annualized rate, the largest annual increase in 12 months. Since January 2024, spending has surged 158% and is now more than 3x higher than 2022 levels. At the same time, office construction spending has fallen by more than $25B since 2022 to roughly $43B, the lowest since 2016. Data center construction now exceeds office construction by $25B, the widest gap on record, a massive reversal from 2022 when office construction was $57B higher than data centers.
11. Trading activity in the Memory ETF $DRAM has surged to extreme levels, with daily volume reaching as high as roughly $8B, surpassing the $5B peak that ARKK hit during its 2020–2021 mania. Cumulative flows into $DRAM have climbed to around $27B, already above ARKK’s peak of roughly $18B, despite DRAM only launching in April 2026. The comparison is not perfect since DRAM tracks profitable memory chip companies rather than the mostly unprofitable growth names that dominated ARKK, and today’s rate environment is very different from 2020. Still, ARKK’s flows eventually peaked and reversed for years, while $DRAM is already down nearly 40% from its June high.
12. Alibaba $BABA reportedly plans to seek revenue sharing for the next version of its open-source Qwen AI model, while Moonshot is asking partners for up to a 30% revenue share for its Kimi K3 model, according to Reuters. The move suggests China’s leading AI labs are starting to push harder on monetization as open-source model adoption scales.
WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.They all say "all negative news has been gone" and "policy uncertainty," but their bodies are honest—money really doesn't lie.
Looking at the July data: the US Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow for the month was about $172 million. Not a huge flood, but the key is that it's a strong "stop-drop buyback" sentiment. On July 30 alone, BlackRock IBIT absorbed about $183 million, meaning a single product almost completely absorbed the entire month's industry net inflow. Morgan Stanley's latest 13F also pushed IBIT holdings to 5.5 million shares with a face value of about $188 million. Combined with the small tails of ARKB and GBTC, Morgan Stanley's exposure to BTC spot ETFs is no longer just a "trial waters"—it's a solid downside allocation.
So the current market is actually quite straightforward:
$BTC depends on the "certainty" of institutions—compliant channels, clear custody, and relatively low volatility. Large money entering the market should buy it first, no problem;
$ETH What he's waiting for is spillover—once the ETF stabilizes, smart money will gradually shift into the ETH staking + RWA narrative, but the pace is half a beat slower than BTC;
$SOL These high-β assets bounce the hardest when emotions rebound, but when pullbacks hurt the most, they are considered "icing on the cake" rather than "bottoming positions."
Policy talk has been coming one after another these days, but ETF subscriptions and 13F positions won't play the trick. My feeling is: this wave is still BTC taking the lead first, solidifying institutional bottom position logic; waiting for BTC to hold flat or slow push, ETF to have several weeks of net inflows stabilize, ETH to follow, SOL and a few new public chains with real income to amplify sentiment—a full relay of altcoins in full relay? We have to wait for retail account openings and on-chain activity to return; for now, it's still a breath of fresh air.
Simply put: BTC is the "anchor for institutions to vote with their feet," while altcoins are "amplifiers of sentiment recovery." The order is likely to remain the same; don't expect a single good news to rotate out of order.In January 2025, Bitcoin broke through 109588, marking the end of the phase bull market and falling until bottoming out in April
During the same period, Ethereum fell from 4100 to a staggering 1385
From the current perspective, you should clear your positions promptly before January
But in real conditions, selling is a very difficult event—harder than bottom-fishing in a bear market.
Let's look at what happened at that time
Institutions unanimously expect $200,000: Bernstein, Standard Chartered, ARK, and Deutsche Bank have released reports almost simultaneously, setting a target price of $200,000 for Bitcoin in 2025, citing triple drivers such as pension fund entry, deepening institutional allocation, and favorable policies
Trump's policies have only just begun: the market generally believes that taking office is just the beginning, with a series of policy dividends such as the stablecoin bill, the introduction of 401k pension funds, and the Bitcoin strategic reserve, making the narrative far from being realized.
ETF funds continue to flow in: for the entire month of January, spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $5.3 billion, while BlackRock alone saw $3.2 billion in inflows, indicating a steady stream of institutional buying
The four-year cycle model says the top is still early. : The halving is in April 2024. According to historical patterns, the top is 12–18 months after the halving, that is, from mid to the end of 2025, with January only being the ninth month. According to this model, at that time it was not just a top but was halfway up the mountain
These views weren't made up afterward; they were publicly available information you could see every day at the time. When you're in the midst of them, you naturally feel the bull market is still early, and now it's only halfway up, making it hard to actively think the market is ending.
This is the first hurdle: the whole world is full of good news, and there's no reason to sell
More importantly, the mainstream interpretation of the January decline at the time was "reversing the car to catch the driver" and deleveraging to lighten the car and pave the way for a rise
Because every bull market main upward wave experiences two or three rounds of sideways consolidation, and each consolidation is considered bearish; in reality, this is just a temporary adjustment
But after many times, it creates a wolf effect. When a real bear market declines, people think it's a correction, which creates a kind of mindset.
This is the second hurdle: ignoring risk, all declines are an ingrained belief in shakeouts
We all know that the bear market decline before April 2025 was due to Trump's tariff policies
However, at the beginning of 2025, almost no one regarded tariffs as a core variable accelerating the bear market
It wasn't until February 2025, when the market saw its first large-scale crash and crashed, that the market truly began to take it seriously; By April, when global reciprocal tariffs were fully implemented, Bitcoin bottomed out, and during the same period, altcoins fell for a full four months, even dropping as much as 80%.
This is the third hurdle. You can't know the real bad news in a bear market, but it will definitely appear
Therefore, relying on so-called news and analysis to cash out in a bull market is extremely difficult
When it's time to sell, the whole world is good news; by the time bad news comes, the bear market is already halfway over. Selling then will be even harder, since everyone hates loss
So don't spend too much energy on external factors like narrative and news aspects
What's truly useful is paying attention to the chip structure, which brings us back to our old viewpoint
The fundamental reason for the end of a bull market is the drying up of buying demand,
The fundamental factor behind the sluggish buying is "price consensus"
In 2025, Ethereum consolidated sideways at 3800. When it broke below the consolidation, most started to panic, but then recovered the next day and never looked back, breaking through 4700.
The critical moment came. After the 3800 wave ended, good news kept coming, especially Tome Lee repeatedly saying Ethereum would break 10,000 by year-end. Everyone knew he was boasting; most people thought 6000-8000 was a reasonable target, and then an anchor point was formed: Ethereum was aiming for 6000, and news kept spreading this price
More and more people believe and buy, but as a result, buying runs dry, and the bull market ends
So, when a price consensus is reached, it's time to start reducing positions—selling more as prices rise, selling regularly, just like regular investing, just selling off
Because you have a position, you are part of this market, and your ideas can represent the public's perspective. So you will have the same price anchor as the masses, but our actions will become selling, rather than continuing to believe like the masses
So I have summarized several more detailed points below
1. Everyone firmly believes the bull market is coming
2. Volkswagen began to agree on a higher price anchor
3. No longer fearing a downturn; thinking it is just a pullback to clear leverage
When these signals appear, don't worry about any positive news. Sell firmly, don't be afraid to sell early. Selling early still keeps your rationality. What's truly scary is the top. Selling feels like betrayal, as if you were wrong, and you might even buy back uncontrollably, causing even greater losses
I believe in these words more: selling a flight makes a profit, fleeing from the top is a disaster
Now that the bear market is in August, a bull market is bound to come. The purpose of writing this article is to prepare for the next bull market
We hope to stay clear-headed at the end of the bull market and secure profits in time
In the crypto world, compound interest comes from realization, not necessarily long-term holding. #HormuzNegotiations have progressed. Has oil price risk cooled down? #白宫再次推动罢免美联储理事丽莎 Cook: #标普收盘再创新高. Expectations for 8,000 points have risen #霍尔木兹谈判取得进展, has the risk of oil prices cooled down?
Core judgment: The positive signals from the Hormuz negotiations drove oil prices plunging over 7% in a week, but for BTC and ETH, the logic of "falling oil prices = easing inflation = lower rate hike expectations" is fragile—the protocol itself is full of holes, and once it falls, risk assets will be driven back by the price increases.
On August 4, U.S. Treasury Secretary Becent made a high-profile statement that "an agreement will be reached in two days today," causing WTI to plunge 5.7% to $75.77 that day, and Brent to fall below $80. WTI fell 7.67% the following week. Iran and Oman have clarified the overall framework of the agreement, and the final text is expected to be released soon.
However, the agreement details are deeply divided—Iran charges a 5%-7% toll, Oman negotiates 3%, and the U.S. insists on zero charge. Iran denies direct negotiations with the U.S., and the U.S. military continues to maintain a maritime blockade. Currently, fewer than 10 oil tankers pass through daily, far below normal levels.
For BTC and ETH, the logic behind the oil price drop is that "inflationary pressures ease→ the probability of rate hikes decreases→ risk assets rise," and BTC once broke through $65,300. But the agreement could turn hostile at any time. If negotiations break down and Iran makes another move, there is considerable room for a rebound after a sharp drop in oil prices—when inflation expectations rise and risk appetite reverses, BTC's $65,300 could be the top of this rebound. 📊 Whale wallets aren't waiting for confirmation
BitMine has quietly built a 5.8M $ETH stack — over 4.3% of total supply — adding another 10.4K ETH just last week. CryptoQuant confirms it's not isolated: mid-size ETH wallets (10K-100K) just hit a record 19.6M coins held.
Spot ETFs are backing the trend too: $244M into BTC funds and $61M into ETH funds in a single day (Aug 5), BlackRock leading both.
The macro backdrop is actually cut-friendly, not restrictive — July payrolls badly missed estimates, pushing rate-cut odds higher for September rather than hike fears.
Real accumulation + softening macro = a setup worth watching, not assuming.
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus #AIMemoryStressTest #SpaceXUnlockRebound $BTC $ETH
Source: BitMine holdings (CoinDesk, Aug 3); CryptoQuant whale data; Farside ETF flow data (Aug 5); July payrolls reportBuying the right coin, holding it for a whole month, watching it stay flat — while $ADA surged nearly 20% in just one week. That’s the current market: $BTC hovering around $64k, more than 48% below its previous peak, but the money flow isn’t standing still — it’s moving very selectively. While small memes like $PONS, $WKC, $HEI are heating up, the privacy group $ZEC (+12%/week) and $XMR are quietly breaking out; conversely, $ONDO and the RWA group are down -10% for the week, while $XRP, $SUI, $PEPE are in a tug of war.
One perspective says this is smart money rotating — altcoins with their own stories are still winning big. But another view argues that the $ZEC, $ADA wave is just a short-term shift in a market lacking liquidity: until $BTC breaks its peak, altcoins won’t have a strong, sustainable rally.
In my opinion, what matters isn’t the price, but the money flowing into defensive groups — privacy and even gold tokens like $XAUT rising 7%/week. That’s a risk-off mentality, not an altseason. Altseason might not be gone, but fragmented into waves by sector — those who pick the right group win, those holding “good” coins waiting for a big surge might wait forever.
If you could only hold 1 coin until the end of the month, you
#FedHawksVsWeakJobs SpaceX passed its first unlock test, but not yet its valuation test.
Shares rose 6.1% to $114.92 on Aug 6 even as up to 911.5M shares became eligible for sale, more than the roughly 638.9M shares sold in its IPO. The rebound followed a nearly 14% drop the previous day, while the stock remains below its $135 offering price.
Its first post-IPO earnings report delivered a clear top-line beat:
· Revenue reached $7.8B, up more than 90% YoY
· Net loss narrowed to $541M, or $0.09 per share, less than half analysts expected
· AI revenue reached $2.56B, up 247% YoY
SpaceX now reports AI as a core segment following its February acquisition of xAI, bringing xAI, Grok and X into the broader business.
But Starlink remains the current revenue engine. The connectivity segment generated $4.29B, up 66% YoY and accounting for more than half of total revenue, while Starlink subscribers doubled to around 12M.
The spending side changed the conversation. Total quarterly capex climbed to about $18.3B, with roughly $15.8B directed toward AI infrastructure, more than double the previous quarter and significantly above current quarterly AI revenue.
That comparison does not capture the multi-year value of infrastructure, but it shows the scale of the upfront buildout. Investors are increasingly separating rapid AI demand from the cost of delivering it.
The unlock also requires context. Shares becoming eligible for sale does not mean all of them were sold on Aug 6. The rebound shows the market absorbed the first day of potential supply, not that selling pressure has disappeared.
Aug 6 was only the first staged release. Additional tranches remain under the IPO lockup schedule, while Elon Musk’s shares are subject to a 366-day lockup.
The next test is whether Starlink’s revenue base and rapid AI growth can support higher capex before more shares become available.
Which signal matters more now: AI revenue converting into stronger margins, or continued absorption of the unlocked supply?
#SpaceXUnlockRebound #AIMemoryBullTest Seeing $SPCX's -1027% loss rate, I stared at the screen for three seconds, then smiled helplessly.
75x leverage, 18.4U margin, unrealized loss of 160U.
The ratio is shocking, and the amount is painfully real.
That damn SPCX, as soon as the news of the unban came out, I didn't even think about it and shorted it—116.94.
At the time, I felt confident—wouldn't unlocking the ban be bad news?
But it jumped straight to 134.48, like a slap in my face.
A 30% increase combined with 75x leverage, it's normal that 18.4U couldn't hold up.
Do you really believe Musk's Planet Plan?
It doesn't matter, the market is convinced.
Prices range from 116 to 134, that's the reality.
My short position was buried with 160U, which is also true.
The most useless thing in trading is "I think"—
I think unlocking is bearish, but it went up.
I think it's time for a pullback, and it keeps pushing upward.
I think Musk is just making empty promises; the market is taking it seriously.
The market never cares what I think; it only cares where the money flows.
The 1-hour MACD red bars on the chart started to shrink, ranging sideways between 134-132, indicating the bullish momentum is weakening.
This trade is left unchanged now; if it pulls back to 130, it will reduce losses; if it breaks 135, it will close and exit.
The 160U lost money, but not too much or less, but it can still hold up.
It's pretty funny to think about it—clearly planning to grab a pullback, but the market just keeps pushing you to the floor.
The most magical part is that the direction of this order is completely opposite to the market's direction,
Instead, it made me much clearer—I was gambling, not trading.
$BEAT rose 26%, from 1.608 to 2.598, just as strong as the wave the day before yesterday.
The bulls are unstoppable; this kind of trend absolutely cannot be counter-trending to short sellers.
$RE is also decent, bottoming at 0.371, V-shaped reversal up 16%, MACD golden cross.
If it doesn't break below 0.40 on the pullback, you can try going long.
The most valuable thing in this deal isn't the profit or loss, but the lesson of 75x leverage—
A 3% reverse fluctuation resets to zero. If you convert it to 100U of principal, you'd be enjoying the wind on the rooftop now.
Leave the SPCX order hanging, whether it explodes or not.
But I still want to know, how long can this planetary plan last?
The faster you pull, the more pain it hurts when you hit.
Either someone is lying in wait in advance for the ban to be lifted and shipments are being lifted,
or speculative capital will use news to force a push,
No matter which one it is, it's not something I can bet on.
It's the weekend, so the market is the market, and I am the same.
If you lose, then accept it.
This order hangs there; if it blows up, it's its fate; if it returns, it's its luck.
I watch my show, and it follows its own path.
Each has their own way.#标普收盘再创新高, the 8,000-point level is expected to heat up
The S&P 500 has once again hit a new all-time closing high, several Wall Street institutions have raised their year-end targets, and market expectations for 8,000 points continue to ferment. An interesting market phenomenon: US stocks are rising steadily, but Bitcoin has not exploded in tandem, showing a clear divergence between strength and weakness. Many insiders are asking: Why doesn't Bitcoin follow the US stock market during a bull market? If 8,000 points are realized, can the crypto world reap the dividends?
Let's first clarify the underlying logic behind this round of US stock market rally. This round of rally is not simply about injecting liquidity to hype valuations; the core driving force comes from AI-driven upward revisions in corporate earnings. Leading tech companies' earnings reports continue to beat expectations, and the market has revised future earnings per share forecasts. Even if valuations haven't expanded significantly, rising earnings still push the index higher.
But at the same time, there are objective risks: the market is highly concentrated in a few AI-heavyweight stocks, with poor market breadth; Although institutions have set an 8,000-point target, almost all of them warn that the rise will not be straight, and there is a significant risk of a significant correction in the fall; The biggest constraints remain inflation data and Federal Reserve policies. If inflation rebounds and high interest rates persist, it will directly suppress the upside of US stocks.
Breaking down these two scenarios, we can understand US stocks and understand the transmission of Bitcoin.
Scenario 1: Continued earnings realization, S&P steadily advancing toward 8,000 points (Benchmark Optimism scenario)
AI companies' earnings reports continue to exceed expectations, inflation is moderately easing, the market is trading expectations for rate cuts, and overall risk appetite remains high.
- U.S. growth assets continue to strengthen, with institutional risk appetite opening up;
- Some capital will spill over into the crypto market, providing emotional support for Bitcoin.
Key practical issue: This round of US stock market rally funds has largely accumulated in domestic US stocks rather than large-scale flows into crypto, resulting in a "US stock market surge, Bitcoin oscillating and recovering, but it is difficult to break out of the violent, unilateral rally" differentiated situation.
Scenario 2: 8000 points is just a narrative, with a sharp pullback midway (risk scenario)
CPI inflation rebounds again, wages rise again, and the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates; or AI companies may have earnings below expectations, leading heavyweight stocks to collectively sell valuations.
- The S&P has entered a deep pullback, with risk appetite shrinking rapidly;
- As a high-beta risk asset, Bitcoin tends to face greater volatility pressure, with pullbacks often larger than those in US stock indices.
A very important misconception: Don't assume that just because US stocks hit new highs, Bitcoin will definitely surge. Recently, the correlation between the two has clearly declined. US stocks are driven by AI corporate earnings, while Bitcoin depends more on US Treasury yields, spot ETF funds, and crypto on-exchange liquidity. The logical chain is not entirely synchronized.
Additional Bitcoin market analysis
Current market status
BTC continues to fluctuate in a large box range between $63,200 and $65,200. US stocks keep hitting new highs, but inflows of Bitcoin incremental funds are limited, ETF funds are intermittent, suppressed by macro policy expectations, and have emerged from an independent grinding rally.
Key Technical Points:
Short-term resistance: 64,800-65,200 USD; only with increased volume and a stable position can there be a chance to open upward space;
First support: $63,200-$63,500, a box for bullish defensive centers;
Strong support: $62,000-$62,400; a valid break below indicates a collective weakening of risk assets.
A practical reminder for community members
1. The S&P 8000-point push is a medium- to long-term narrative; don't use the US stock market high as a direct basis for going long on Bitcoin. What truly determines the Bitcoin market are CPI inflation, US Treasury yields, and the Federal Reserve's stance. US stocks are just sentiment amplifiers, not decisive factors.
2. Distinguish between two scenarios: U.S. stocks rising and falling interest rates are the real benefits for Bitcoin; If U.S. stocks rely on high interest rates to withstand profitable increases, the actual dividends for Bitcoin are very limited.
3. The market remains in a box pattern. Maintain a oscillating mindset: reduce positions near the upper boundary and light positions near the lower boundary to test long positions, avoiding high leverage and one-sided gambling.
4. Pay close attention to risks: If US stocks experience a pullback after a surge or pullback, Bitcoin's downside resilience is often greater than stocks', so risk control plans should be prepared in advance.当加密市场苦于等待下一个大叙事的时候，反观黄金，它的故事一直在持续发酵。 美股靠AI、航天、光通信不断制造新热点，加密市场在旧叙事耗尽之后陷入存量博弈，唯独黄金，不需要颠覆式创新，依靠宏观现实，持续吸引场外增量资金进场。 支撑黄金的，是两套长逻辑叠加短期催化。 第一是去美元化的长期趋势，全球央行持续增持黄金储备，把黄金当做资产安全的压舱石，这个大趋势不会因为短期涨跌而轻易改变。第二是地缘冲突常态化，世界不确定性增加，每当局势紧绷，避险资金第一选择就会流向黄金。再加上美国就业数据走弱，市场开始交易美联储降息预期，多重力量一起推着金价不断走高。 但热闹背后，要分清什么是长期逻辑，什么是短期情绪。 现在金价处在历史高位，连续快速拉升之后，超买已经十分明显。很多人看见一路上涨，害怕踏空，冲动追进去。可黄金不是只会单向上涨，一旦通胀数据超预期、美元再度走强，一轮深度回调随时会到来。 很多人有一个误区：看好黄金长期，就等于任何位置都可以重仓进场。其实不是。央行买黄金是做底仓配置，拿的是数年周期，能扛住20%级别回撤。普通散户如果抱着短线暴富心态高位冲进去，一次回调就容易心态崩盘Changle No.1 · New Version of Altcoin Short Selling Launched | Full Network Scan + Funding Rate/Long-Short Ratio Dual Congestion Signals
Purely real records, not stock recommendations or investment advice. Small capital real trading tracking and verification in progress, data continuously updated.
1. Current Status (August 8, 19:11)
Changle No.1 has been revised from BTC/ETH dual coins to [Full Network Scan Altcoins · Pure Short Selling] V3.0, now online in observation mode (analysis only, no orders placed).
This round selected 7 short signals, all daily bearish + retail crowd congestion tops:
TSLA(76), TRUMP(76), MU(70), SKHYNIX(68), HYPE(65), WLD(62), DRAM(62)
2. What Changed
· Coin selection: screened from 438 USDT perpetual contracts across the entire market, with trading volume >3 million, excluding mainstream large coins, only retaining daily bearish altcoins
· Added funding rate: positive rate = long crowd congestion favorable for shorting, negative rate = short crowd congestion veto
· Added long-short ratio: the crazier retail longs (higher long-short ratio) the more favorable for shorting — smart money goes contrarian
· Risk control: 10x leverage, 3% per position, max 10 positions, 3% stop loss, extreme diversification to prevent single coin liquidation
3. Strategy Core (Review)
Trend-following short + dual congestion confirmation. Short only in altcoins where "daily has turned bearish + retail is still greedily long" — places where long leverage clusters, bubble pressure to fall is greatest. No counter-trend, no chasing highs, no bottom fishing.
4. Honest Words
This revision learned from the old version’s lessons: old version’s 2% take profit was too narrow and got repeatedly stopped out by trend fluctuations, fixed dual coins were too concentrated. New version uses multi-coin diversification + congestion signals instead, but observation period signals have not yet been market-verified, the 7 signals are only "logically consistent," not guaranteed profitable. Current samples are all highly congested stock-like tokens (TSLA/TRUMP/SKHYNIX/MU), market chose so, recorded truthfully.
5. Next Steps
DRY_RUN observation for a few days to verify the real hit rate of these congestion short signals. When signals are continuously stable, switch to real orders, data continuously updated.
Trading involves risks, enter the market cautiously. This is just my experimental record. Manually opened BICO positions, feeling rough... $TSLA $TRUMP $MU I took the BICO long order at 16:11, and this hour it pulled back from +7.73% to +2.79%—Yaobi is faster than flipping a book.
BTC Card 65,018 (+0.08%) was stagnant all day, volume contracted by -81.6%, Funding +0.0065% neutral, OI 107,200 unchanged, Fear 30.
The most exciting capital flows: BICO turned from +5.5% to -3.88% (Binance -3.69%), last hour it was a solo dance, this hour it gave it back.
Leading the Exchange: On-chain US stock XSPCX took over at 24h +14.05%, with all large-cap coins zombie-dominated, and real volatility only in US stock token sectors.
Money moves from the coin to on-chain US stocks, while the market remains completely still—not an incremental bull market, but a robbing of existing stocks to pay Paul Paul.
By the way, self-mockery: My XSNDK short position (2X) still has a floating loss of -0.24%. Both bulls and bears are training partners.
Real review: BICO is still holding on to +2.79% and not exiting. The end of the Yaobi One-Hour Party is a signal of unity collapse.
Take this trick: Watch rotation and don't focus on the index; Meme coins shift from leading gains to leading declines, telling you earlier than any indicator that money is withdrawing.
BICO: Do you dare to take the knife during this pullback? If you dare, share your reasons in the comments; if not, talk about what you're afraid of. Don't lurk.
Crypto assets carry high risk. This article does not constitute investment advice and reflects purely personal opinions.
$BTC $BICO #OKX星球 #币种异动 #资金搬家