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Bitcoin has been falling for a full week, is a short-term rebound opportunity brewing?
As early as September 4th, I indicated a negative signal for Bitcoin, and the market subsequently entered a correction as expected. It has now been continuously pulling back for a week, with the price dropping from the high of 82300 to a low of 76460.
The capital flow signals deserve attention: Coinank data shows that Bitcoin spot funds have experienced net outflows for 5 consecutive days, with a single-day net outflow exceeding 400 million USD yesterday.
In the past three days, the cumulative net outflow reached 896 million USD, surpassing the net inflow of 892 million USD during the August 19–21 rally phase.
Volume and price levels are also bearish. The average daily trading volume during the September 4–10 downtrend is significantly higher than the adjustment phase from August 28 to September 2, indicating continuous selling pressure.
Considering the capital flow and volume-price structure, the mid-term bearish view remains unchanged.
However, there is no need to panic in the short term.
Yesterday’s trading volume on the decline shrank compared to September 4 and September 8, showing that short-term selling pressure is starting to ease.
At 20:30 tonight, the US August CPI data will be released.
Previously released PPI data was stronger than expected, and the market’s expectation for a September rate hike has risen above 70%. Even if this CPI again rises and further strengthens rate hike expectations, some of the negative factors have already been priced in by the market.
On the support side, the 75500 level has strong short-term support, and it is difficult to break below it effectively. The opportunity for a short-term rebound is emerging.
⚠️ Attention should be paid to liquidity sweep risks: a large number of long positions are stacked in the 74000–76200 range for liquidation. The market may first dip near 74000 to shake out positions, completing liquidity harvesting before starting a rebound.
The height of the subsequent rebound mainly depends on trading volume:
✅ If the rebound volume significantly exceeds the level on September 3, it indicates buying has returned after the pullback, and there is potential to challenge the 82850 resistance again;
❌ If the rebound volume is weaker than September 3, it shows weak buying power, making it difficult to break the previous high effectively.
Summary:
The mid-term bearish tone remains unchanged. The current movement is only a short-term corrective rebound within a downtrend, not a trend reversal.
Trade the rebound with proper risk control. $BTC Oil prices soar! Rate hike expectations soar! Gold plunges! US stocks fall for 4 consecutive days, is the market pulling back? Tonight's CPI data.
This week has been packed with news coverage, with global markets highly tense. Let's take a closer look at what really happened!
First, crude oil recently climbed to 100, rising from 74 in early August to 100 now—a rise of over a month. Last night's PPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, so inflationary pressure is likely to be reflected, so tonight's CPI data is likely to be affected! If tonight's CPI is higher than expected, the market will believe the probability of a Fed rate hike will increase further, leading to a further market decline. Currently, the market speculates that the Fed's rate decision in September will increase by 25 points to 62%, so if tonight's CPI data is poor, it could further increase the Fed's rate hike in September. And a rate hike is definitely unfavorable for the market; both US stocks, crypto markets, and gold will suffer! But veteran viewers should know that I have read Walsh's speech before, and I always thought he was a dove in eagle disguise, unlikely to raise rates. The reason is simple: first, he was elected by Trump; second, the U.S. debt pressure can only be managed by cutting interest rates; third, the stocks held by the entire American population cannot bear it. Then we shall wait and see. We can watch the FOMC on September 17 next week! Also, current inflation is rising crude oilAt first, I didn't understand virtual currency at all.
My friends kept saying this one made money and that one doubled.
So I just opened an account following them.
The first thing I bought was $BTC.
That night after buying, I basically couldn't sleep.
I kept checking my phone every once in a while.
When it went up, I smiled foolishly.
When it dropped, I cursed myself for being impulsive.
Later, I also got into $ETH.
The fees hurt my feelings.
Then I heard people say $SOL is fast,
so I followed the trend and bought some.
Right after entering, I took a big hit from a correction.
Those days, I couldn't even enjoy my meals.
Slowly, I realized
this isn't about who is smarter,
but who can control their impulses.
There are always people shouting trade calls in the group.
I believed a few times,
but in the end, I found they ran away faster than anyone else.
When the news comes out, they jump around wildly.
People just can't keep up.
Now I stick to a few rules:
Only use spare money.
Don't borrow money.
Don't go all in.
Don't stay up late watching the market.
Don't chase when it rises.
Don't rush to sell when it falls.
If it really hurts, just close the app.
Work when you should work.
Eat when you should eat.
When others talk about hundreds or thousands of times gains,
I just treat it like a joke.
Making a little extra money for meals is luck.
If I lose, I accept it.
Don't put your life on the line.
Don't expect to turn your life around with this.
Keep your position small.
Keep your mindset steady.
Being able to sleep well is better than anything.
This is the real feeling of an ordinary person. #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121%
#BTC现货ETF连续流出
#OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 $BTC is at an interesting point right now.
After spending so long moving sideways, the market finally looks like it’s trying to pick a direction. The recent weakness has also flushed out a lot of leveraged longs, while altcoins are feeling the pressure.
I’m not rushing to call the bottom yet.
If BTC can reclaim and hold key support, this could turn into a healthy reset before another move higher. But if support keeps failing, the downside can accelerate quickly.
The next few days may come down to how the market reacts to upcoming inflation data and changing rate expectations.
For now, patience > forcing a trade.
⚠️ Not financial advice. Manage risk and position size.
$BTC A Dogecoin ETF was liquidated just ten months after listing!
Bitwise announced yesterday: it is closing and liquidating its spot Dogecoin ETF (BWOW), only ten months after it was listed.
How small was it? As of September 8, this fund held 8.19 million $DOGE, valued at $720,000. On its first day of listing, it traded over $3 million, but never reached that again; last month, net inflows were only $318,000. The liquidation schedule is also set: the last trading day is October 14, followed by cash settlement.
A more painful comparison: the cumulative trading volume of the Dogecoin ETF was about $300 million, while Hyperliquid's ETF is $2.1 billion, Zcash $1.5 billion, Chainlink $680 million.
$DOGE has a 13-year community, but the community buys coins, not ETFs. Institutional channels require institutional demand, and these two things have never been interchangeable.
Today DOGE fell 2.91%, currently priced at 0.08358, breaking below the MA20 (0.0866), with a 60-day high of 0.1009.
Judgment: The ETF liquidation itself does not change DOGE's community foundation, but it is a reminder — faith can support the price, but not the product.
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Tonight's CPI, I am firmly bearish.
Bitcoin is currently stuck around 78,000, with resistance at 80,000 above and the last line of defense at 77,745 below. The market has quietly reduced positions ahead of the data; this is not a firm short but a reluctance to hold positions. Once the core CPI month-on-month drops to 0.3%, the probability of a rate hike will surge, and 77,745 will most likely break directly, first targeting 75,500. Even if the data barely meets expectations, a rebound to 79,700 that fails to hold will still indicate weakness.
Ethereum is more fragile. It was just pushed back by the 50-week moving average, and volume has shrunk. When Bitcoin falls, Ethereum falls faster. It will first lose 2,438, then look for support around 2,220-2,250. There is a huge whale with a 10x long position there, liquidation price at 2,241; a quick drop may trigger a chain liquidation, causing a sharp decline.
$UNI's pattern is not bad, but tonight is not the time to focus on the pattern; if 4.226 breaks, it will look bad. $XRP has support at 1.40, with 1.50 as a key resistance, but ETF inflows dropped sharply by 83% the week before; once the data heats up, 1.40 will most likely be tested. $USELESS, as a meme coin, is the fastest to flee when macro shocks hit, so avoid it as much as possible.
Bearish as I am, don't rush to act. Wait for the data to land; after the first wave of decline and a failed rebound, that will be the confirmed signal that risk is controllable.What was really worth watching in the market last night wasn't how much BTC fell, but that the cost of capital went up again.
Brent crude oil surged 6.3% to $107.63, the 10-year US Treasury yield approached 5%, and the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 49% directly to 71.3%. Meanwhile, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $282.7 million.
Many people's first reaction: institutions are running away.
I don't see it that way.
It looks more like capital is recalculating. Oil prices breaking $100, inflation pressure rising, the Fed's room for rate cuts being squeezed, and US Treasury yields continuing to push higher. With the 10-year Treasury yield nearly at 5%, it's perfectly normal for institutions to reduce some BTC positions in the short term.
This isn't a collapse of faith; it's that opportunity costs have increased.
More importantly, cumulative net inflows into Bitcoin ETPs still stand at about $58.2 billion, and $ETH about $12.6 billion, so the base holdings haven't seen a full withdrawal.
Although Coinbase premiums have been negative for five consecutive days, the latest is only -0.042%. US buying is weak but hasn't completely exited yet.
So now, I'm not afraid of ETFs seeing daily outflows of $200 million or $300 million; what really needs watching is the 10-year US Treasury yield.Tonight’s key event is CPI, not NFP. The latest payrolls already showed 162K jobs vs. 55K expected, keeping pressure on rate-cut hopes. BTC remains weak after falling from 82.3K, with bearish MACD and moving averages. Watch 78K resistance and 76.4K support. Below 76.4K could expose 75.5K–75K, while a strong reclaim of 78K may open 78.8K–79.7K. My base case: CPI meets expectations and BTC stays range-bound. Trade both sides carefully.#PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #财报观察员: Oracle AI Cloud Revenue Up 121%
Latest Data
Oracle announced its latest quarterly earnings, with cloud infrastructure revenue soaring 121% year-over-year, adding a large number of AI computing power orders. However, massive expansion also led to a surge in capital expenditures, causing the stock price to spike and then retreat after hours. The market price of $BTC is 76150, with market focus still on tonight's CPI data. The tech sector's positive news has not yet boosted sentiment in the crypto market.
Market Consensus
Optimists believe AI computing demand continues to explode, the long-term logic for risk assets remains solid, and funds will flow back to growth assets after inflation eases;
Cautious views point out that behind the high growth is huge capital investment, relying on burning cash to scale, and in a high interest rate environment, valuation pressure is hard to eliminate.
Underlying Logic Analysis
This earnings report confirms the real demand in the AI industry, but currently, what determines market direction is not corporate profits but inflation data and Federal Reserve policy. No matter how good the industry news is, during liquidity tightening phases, it is difficult to immediately translate into market rallies.
Personal Viewpoint (Personally inclined to a gradual bull market return, just a personal opinion, not investment advice)
The AI sector is a long-term main theme, but in the short term, don't be impulsive based on news. Tonight's CPI is the real indicator; maintaining a light position and observing is safer. Tonight at 20:30, the Fed faces a key CPI test before its interest rate decision
The US August CPI data will be released tonight at 20:30. This is the last important data before the Fed's rate decision next week and may directly determine whether the first rate hike in more than three years will be initiated next week. The core issue of this report is: Have energy and supply shocks begun to transmit to core inflation? $CPI hasn't been released yet, but the probability of a rate hike in October is already at 71%.
Just saw that Polymarket chart: Fed Rate Hike by October directly hit 71%, jumping 24 percentage points within a week.
The probability of the next FOMC rate hike is also at 62%.
Oil prices have climbed back above $100, PPI is running hot again, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5%.
The market no longer bets on a soft landing followed by rate cuts, but rather on an initial rate hike.
I think, before tonight's data, don't rush to buy the US stock rebound.
The probabilities are clear; if CPI is not soft again, long-duration assets like QQQ are more vulnerable.
You can hold a light position and watch, don't go all in betting on a surprise.
The invalidation condition is also clear: if CPI magically turns soft and the rate hike probability collapses below 50%, then it's not too late to talk about a rebound.
Are you firmly betting on a rate hike, or do you think the probability will fall back?
$SPY $QQQ $TLT #PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI will set the direction #10-year US Treasury yield nears 5% threshold, repo can't stop yield rise With the recent rebound in US inflation and employment data, the market has resumed trading expectations for Fed rate hikes. Last night's August PPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, clearly fueling market concerns about another Fed rate hike. For Bitcoin, rising interest rates are certainly not good news. But looking back at past cycles, one thing emerges: Fed rate hikes do not necessarily mean Bitcoin will fall, and rate cuts do not necessarily mean Bitcoin will rise. 2017 is the most typical example. That year, the Fed raised rates three times, but Bitcoin was not significantly suppressed; instead, it rose from about $1,000 at the beginning of the year and peaked close to $20,000 by year-end. If you simply follow the logic of rate hikes negatively affecting Bitcoin, this market rally is hard to explain. Although the financial environment at the time began to tighten, interest rates remained very low, and market risk appetite was very high. Meanwhile, the crypto market entered a phase of rapid expansion, with massive capital flowing in, and Bitcoin's upward momentum far outpaced the pressure from interest rate changes. The truly obvious tightening cycle came in 2018. The Fed raised rates four times throughout the year, while Bitcoin fell continuously from its late 2017 high, eventually entering a bear market. But this round of decline cannot be entirely attributed to rate hikes. The frenzied rally in 2017 accumulated a large bubble, while the retreat of leveraged funds, market sentiment reversal, and internal issues in the crypto industry all drove prices down. The situation in 2020 was completely different. After the pandemic broke out, the Fed cut rates consecutively in March 2020, lowering interest ratesThis round of US Treasury bonds is really going crazy. At the #10年期美债逼近5% mark, buybacks can't stop yields from rising. The 10-year yield has pushed straight to 4.95%, and the 30-year yield has climbed to 5.37%, just a breath away from the 5% mark. Last night, when the PPI came out, it rose 0.4% month-on-month and 5.4% year-on-year. Energy prices pushed inflation higher, pushing the probability of a rate hike in September from 49% to over 70%. The worst part was that the Treasury spent $5.19 billion to buy back 10- to 20-year Treasury bonds, but what happened? Long-term bonds kept falling, and yields kept climbing. Becent himself admitted this move only improved liquidity for old debt, not quantitative easing, and it couldn't reduce deficits or bond issuance demand. To put it bluntly, it's just a drop in the bucket—impossible to suppress. At this point, Trump even joined the crowd, saying that if the Republicans won the midterms, they would give every adult $5,000. The potential cost exceeded $1 trillion—isn't that just inflating the market? On one hand, the Fed is raising interest rates to pump liquidity; on the other, politicians want to inject money. If inflation expectations come down, then what's going on? The core impact of this on the crypto world is simple: money is getting more expensive. The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5%, risk-free rates are pushing higher, and funding costs are getting higher and higher. In this environment, institutions' first reaction is to reduce leverage and extract liquidity. BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of $167 million for two consecutive days, which directly reflects this logic. It's not that the fundamentals of BTC are flawed; it's that the macro environment is too oppressive, forcing funds to avoid risks. But interestingly, BTC is being pumped up, while ETH and XBTC is consolidating in the 76,560–77,225 range, down 1.0–2.2% in 24h, marking four consecutive bearish days. The main reasons are August PPI at 5.4%, exceeding expectations + Middle East oil prices breaking 107 → Fed's September 16 rate hike expectations rising to 7072.8K, far below the current price), long-term holders have basically not sold, this round looks more like macro-driven deleveraging rather than a trend reversal.
Tonight at 20:30, the US August CPI is the biggest variable — if higher than expected, it will test $75K; if lower than expected, a rebound is possible.
ETF turning point: from a strong inflow of +730.8M on September 3, it shifted to two consecutive days of net outflow (around 120M) on September 9–10; meanwhile, ETH and SOL ETFs still saw slight net inflows, indicating internal rotation within BTC rather than a full crypto withdrawal.
Institutional moves: Strategy (MSTR) increased its holdings by 4,603 BTC this week, with a total position of 845,050 BTC (cost $63.7 billion) — the main buying force remains uninterrupted. Oracle delivered the market's most anticipated numbers this quarter: cloud infrastructure +121%, $7.4 billion; RPO 664 billion; and signed another $30 billion AI cloud deal.
The stock surged after hours, not because the EPS looked good, but because "capacity is finally starting to convert into revenue."
Accelerating for three consecutive quarters, this is not a one-time spike. 850MW and over 300,000 GPUs have been deployed, and demand is still calling for more.
More importantly, the contract structure: a lot of money is prepaid by customers or they bring their own chips, so Oracle doesn't need to leverage each card additionally, easing cash flow pressure compared to the market's most pessimistic expectations.
Don't chase the highs just because of the 121% growth. SaaS is still in single digits, software is declining during cloud migration, CapEx remains huge, and free cash flow is still negative.
This is a race to buy time with the balance sheet. Short-term trading focuses on guidance fulfillment and after-hours sentiment; mid-term only asks one question: can these 664 billion orders be converted into recurring revenue with quality and quantity over the next 36 months, or will they become the next story of capacity oversupply. #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% [One-sentence conclusion] Wormhole's native token W is priced at $0.00964, with a market cap of about $62.19 million and FDV of about $96.36 million. CoinGecko ranks 390th. It has dropped 99.4% from its all-time high of $1.66 in April 2024, and has dropped 89.5% over the past year—while BTC rose 21.7% in one month and W only rose 14.6%. Institutional adoption is actually progressing (Ripple's RLUSD multi-chain, Arbitrum's ARB borrowing NTT to enter Solana), but price and supply are pulling in opposite directions: on September 18, there was a cliff unlock of 50.41 million tokens (about $490,000), with 35.5% of the total still unreleased. Conclusion: The infrastructure is real, the token is weak—narrative and price have already decoupled. [Today's Review: Volume Shrinking Decline, Liquidity Neutral and Slightly Heavy] To clarify the data caliber: W has both spot (W-USDT) and perpetual (W-USDT-SWAP) on OKX, so this article contains complete candlesticks, funding rates, and open interest data—this differs from most recent new coins. OKX snapshot (2026-09-11 13:50 Beijing time): • Spot spot price $0.009644, down 1.9% in 24 hours • 24 Oracle FY27 Q1: Cloud infrastructure revenue reached $7.4 billion, up 121% year-over-year, accelerating for three consecutive quarters (84%→93%→121%). Total revenue was $19.3 billion, up 30%, with cloud business at $11.6 billion, up 62%. RPO surged to $664 billion, and new AI cloud contracts signed in the quarter exceeded $30 billion.
The key is not just "another increase," but the structure: this quarter delivered 850MW and over 300,000 GPUs, with delivery volume close to three-quarters of the entire last fiscal year. Demand still outpaces supply. Contracts heavily use prepayments/customer-provided GPUs, and the company clearly states no additional impact on financing plans. This is the core reason the market sentiment has shifted from "burning money panic" to "order fulfillment."
SaaS still only grew by 10%, traditional software continues to decline, gross margin is under pressure, and free cash flow remains negative but less so than expected.
Next quarter guidance: revenue up 30%–34%, cloud up 65%–71%. Conclusion: AI computing power leasing has transformed from a story into the main driver of financial reports. Going forward, the focus is on the speed of capacity fulfillment and the quality of revenue per megawatt, rather than repeating "successful transformation." #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% 🚨 Tonight at 20:30, CPI release!
Here's my conclusion first:
Core CPI: expected 0.2%
Headline CPI: expected 3.4%
My judgment: most likely in line with expectations, but Headline has risk of exceeding expectations.
What really determines the crypto market direction is not 3.4 or 3.5, but the core CPI:
👉 ≤0.1%: BTC/ETH will rally directly, rate cut expectations heat up
👉 0.2%: meets expectations, slightly bullish
👉 0.3%: market starts to panic, crypto market under pressure
👉 ≥0.4%: Fed rate hike expectations heat up, risk assets prone to crash
There is still a hidden risk: yesterday's PPI was already hot, and oil prices remain high.
So tonight might not be simply "low CPI means rise, high means fall."
My scenario: 0.2% → initial rally; 0.3% → initial drop; 0.4% → beware of waterfall.
Don't guess the direction tonight, wait for the numbers, and see where the first move goes.
#BTC #ETH #CPI #Fed #cryptocurrency #PPI came in hotter than expected, and now all eyes are on tonight’s CPI.
August PPI reached 5.4% YoY, adding pressure to rate-cut expectations. $BTC is hovering near $76.8K as traders turn cautious.
🔥 Hot CPI → more pressure on risk assets
🟢 Softer CPI → potential relief rally
Until the data drops, volatility could remain extreme. I’m staying light and waiting for confirmation. $ETH $DOGE $NES
Personal view, not financial advice.#PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #10-year US Treasury yield nears 5% threshold, repo fails to stop yield rise
Just saw some data: the 10-year US Treasury yield has reached 4.95%, just a breath away from 5%.
US August PPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 5.4% year-on-year, with energy prices up 4.2%, the main driver. The probability of a rate hike in September jumped directly from 49% to 70%. The 10-year yield surged to 4.95%, and the 30-year yield stood at 5.37%. The Treasury actually repurchased $5.19 billion under the $6 billion cap, but it didn't stop the long bond from falling. Bassett made it clear that repo operations only improve liquidity of old bonds, are not quantitative easing, and do not reduce deficits or bond issuance demand.
For BTC, the short-term logic is straightforward. As US Treasury yields approach 5%, funding costs rise, weakening the appeal of interest-free assets. With the rate hike probability rising to 70%, risk appetite is suppressed, and BTC spot has also seen outflows. If CPI again exceeds expectations, BTC may continue to dip near 75,000 in the short term.
But in the medium term, the risk of debt monetization is also increasing. If a 5% yield fails to attract long-term capital to take over, ultimately the Fed or Treasury will have to backstop it, accelerating the erosion of the dollar's credit. BTC's narrative as a non-sovereign asset will actually be strengthened in this chain. $BTC $ETH $ZEC A rare double threat has appeared on the chessboard: the 90-day rolling correlation coefficient between BTC and spot gold has surged to +0.50, marking only the second time since data began in 2015 that it has crossed this midline, the last time being back in 2020. Meanwhile, its correlation with the Nasdaq has dropped to 0.33, the lowest in a year. This is no coincidence; it is a complete piece restructuring.
As usual, let's first look at the position. In recent years, BTC has been placed in the "high-risk tech asset" box, moving in tandem with the Nasdaq. Now it is starting to break away from that front and align with gold — what does this mean? It means that the big money on the field is redefining the role of this piece. It is no longer just an offensive minor piece but is being used as a defensive fortress on the king's wing. When an asset has both offensive and defensive qualities, its valuation center will rise because players of different styles will allocate positions to it.
Next, consider the sacrificed piece: the Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repurchases in August. This is a clear tactical combination; on the surface, it is a liquidity operation, but in essence, it suppresses the pressure of long-end interest rates. What was the result? BTC rose 22.4% in one week, the strongest surge since March 2024; gold followed with a 5% increase. Spot BTC funds saw a net inflow of $987 million that week. This is not retail pushing; this is big money repositioning — they have read the next twenty moves of this game.
True grandmasters look at structure, not just single moves. The rising correlation means BTC is beginning to play the "digital gold" endgame role in portfolios, and its decoupling from the Nasdaq indicates it is being singled out from the risk asset chessboard and evaluated within another system. This is a fundamental change in the pawn structure, not a simple piece exchange.
But the game always has counterplays. After the correlation approaches 0.5, their linkage brings a hidden risk: if gold enters a correction due to rising real interest rates, BTC will passively bear the pressure because the market's pricing logic has tied the two on the same diagonal. At this point, the test is not who rises more aggressively but whose defensive position is stronger.
The decisive move in the midgame is never the immediate one. The capital flows in the week of September 4, the August repurchase, and this correlation curve together point to the same conclusion: this piece is evolving, but the evolution process will inevitably involve intense piece exchanges. Those who see this clearly will have already calculated the endgame's inevitable victory of the rook and pawn while others are still counting squares. #btcgoldcorr+0.50 ETF crazy redemptions, but Wall Street is secretly bottom-fishing Bitcoin
The entire network is watching the daily fund flows of BTC spot ETFs. Whenever there is a large net outflow, the overwhelming narrative is that institutions are fleeing and the market has peaked. However, most people overlook the SEC's 13F filings, a report that reveals a huge market contrast illusion.
In Q2, BTC spot ETFs experienced continuous large-scale redemptions, with massive funds withdrawing from ETF products, spreading panic throughout the market. But the 13F holdings data exposes the truth: hedge funds, family offices, and other Wall Street private funds are counter-trend increasing their Bitcoin positions through the OTC market, with overall institutional holdings actually rising 7.5% quarter-over-quarter.
These are actually two completely different types of investment capital. The funds inside ETFs are mostly trend-following capital and pension allocations that redeem to avoid risk when the market fluctuates slightly. The private funds recorded in 13F are contrarian long-term capital that bypass ETF channels, directly deposit coins into cold wallets off-exchange, and accumulate coins in batches during pullbacks. These purchases do not show up in ETF flow data.
In contrast, the institutional logic for ETH is different. In Q2, private funds’ ETH holdings grew faster than BTC. Institutions buy ETH to stake and earn on-chain yields; BTC has no yield capability, so private funds buy it purely as an asset to hedge systemic risks from the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds.
This also provides a key insight for the market: ETF redemptions only represent a portion of funds exiting and should not be equated with all institutions being bearish on the crypto market$BTC — STILL THE ONE TO WATCH
$BTC is trading around $79.2K, holding steady after yesterday's dip to $77.6K. The quick rejection wick below $78K showed buyers are still defending that level, but momentum remains capped below $80K.
The $246M liquidation flush across crypto cleared out leverage, which often sets the stage for a more sustainable move — if buyers step in with conviction. So far, they're showing up to defend, but not to attack. Today's outlook: $BTC $ETH
The reasons for being bullish are weakening but have not been overturned yet. Bitcoin fell 2.3% today to $77,770 — a relatively large fluctuation for this coin — as traders reduced bullish positions ahead of this week's US inflation data release.
There are two signals indicating that now is more suitable for cautious observation rather than panic: open interest (the total amount of leveraged positions not yet closed in the market) only rose by 0.7%, while the price dropped, indicating that today's decline was not due to a large influx of new leveraged shorts but more like existing traders exiting and observing.
However, several pillars supporting the bullish logic are showing cracks: ETF (exchange-traded fund, an institutional channel for buying Bitcoin) funds have seen net outflows for the second consecutive day (-$120 million), the long-short account ratio quickly dropped from 2.27 to 2.10 within 24 hours, marking a shift toward crowded short positions. MSTR's preferred shares remain under pressure (implied yield as high as 13.3%), and its stock price is below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, a risk of oversupply that has yet to be resolved. Exchange balances still show net outflows (holders transferring coins off exchanges, usually a signal of hoarding), which is a support point.
To restore stronger confidence, we need to see ETF net inflows for three consecutive days or stabilization of the long-short ratio — until then, the stance remains cautiously bullish rather than firmly bullish. The 630-page alternative amendment just landed on the table. The first thing I flipped through wasn’t the articles, but the structural calculation book—it’s as thick as a full set of construction blueprints, but thick blueprints never guarantee a taller building.
114 Democratic demands were "incorporated," which in architectural terms means the design handover meeting is over and all parties have signed. But signing only proves the blueprints were reviewed, not that the rebar was properly tied. The real load-bearing walls are hidden in the few pages of DeFi registration rules: previously this was a cantilever structure without clear support points; now support nodes have been added, narrowing the scope to digital commodity spot and cash transactions. The volume is cut down, the span shortened, and the seismic rating is actually easier to achieve. This isn’t a concession; it’s turning an ultra-high-rise back into a conventional structure to pass the review.
Self-custody and developer protections are retained—these two are the fire escape and core tube. Any blueprint that alters the core tube means the whole building must be torn down and rebuilt, with no room for negotiation.
But beneath the foundation lies a weak interlayer that no one is addressing: the conflict of interest clause has seen almost no substantive changes. Without excavating the interlayer, no matter how refined the upper structure is, settlement is inevitable.
The vote count is more straightforward. The 60-vote threshold equals the number of critical anchor bolts needed at topping out; currently, seven are missing. The September 15 vote is the final inspection day, with supervisors present—pass or fail in one go, no chance for rework. Some are calling to support procedural motions, which on a construction site is like the general contractor pushing the schedule—but no matter how urgent, if the concrete curing period is insufficient, the strength won’t reach the standard, and no one can force a passing report.
Look at the target hanging over there. Putting US stocks on-chain is essentially adding a glass curtain wall to an already built building: transparent, eye-catching, good for attracting tenants, but it doesn’t bear any load. The main structure remains unchanged; replacing the curtain wall ten times won’t improve the building’s seismic rating. The linked market sees the brightness of reflected light; I focus on the reinforcement ratio of vertical components. Once the regulatory framework’s ground ring beam closes, tokenized assets are truly connected to the city’s utility network; before closure, those are just model homes—pretty, but uninhabitable.
September 15 isn’t about who shouts louder, but about whether the structural natural vibration period is calculated accurately. Among the 630 pages, the few lines about the interlayer may be what truly decide this building’s fate. #claritybessentpushCurrently, the CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a rate hike in September has reached 71%. PPI data has rebounded, and international oil prices continue to rise. Coupled with hawkish comments from Fed officials, the market has already priced in some of the pessimistic expectations for a rate hike. Many people wonder: with such high rate hike expectations, why are crypto and US stocks still rising? This is actually a typical game scenario right now. First, some negative factors have already been priced in by the market. Until yesterday, $BTC pullbacks and large capital outflows $ETF already reflected concerns about a rebound in inflation. Now, the market is no longer trading "whether there will be a rate hike," but whether the CPI will be worse than expected. As long as the data doesn't significantly exceed expectations, there will be a recovery rally with negative factors coming in. Second, funds are playing the game to land their boots. Tonight's CPI is the most important reference data before next week's policy meeting. Regardless of the outcome, The uncertainty hanging over the market will eventually end. Some funds choose to enter early, betting that after the data is realized, a clear direction will follow. Additionally, the market is influenced by leveraged funds. The previous decline has accumulated many short positions, and a slight price rebound triggers short position stop-losses, passively pushing the market higher. This kind of rally is more of a lever stamp and does not mean the fundamentals have reversed. Here, two scenarios need to be distinguished: if tonight's core CPI exceeds 0.22%, inflationary pressure exceeds expectations, and this rebound can easily be directly knocked back; If core CPI falls below 0.2%, then the rebound will have a foundation to continue. To put it bluntly, the current market is essentially betting on data, not trend confirmation.Brothers, everyone is waiting for tonight's news, right? Tonight is the CPI release. The market generally expects the overall month-on-month to be 0.4%, mainly pushed up by energy, with the core month-on-month around 0.2%, and the year-on-year continuing to slow to 2.4%. But honestly, the real watershed is in the core month-on-month—whether it's a straightforward 0.2% or rounded up to 0.3%. That 0.1% difference can cause the market reaction to differ by an order of magnitude; the latter is enough to rekindle rate hike expectations.
If the core exceeds expectations, the dollar will strengthen, and risk assets will take a hit first. For Bitcoin, 78,000 above is a strong resistance, and breaking below 75,500 opens up room for a pullback; Ethereum is relatively resilient, and if good news comes, its rebound will be stronger than Bitcoin's. Altcoins like $SOL, $ZEC, $DOGE are most sensitive to liquidity; bad news will first drain them. ZEC recently has privacy narratives supporting it, but volatility tonight will be amplified, so chasing highs is just giving away money. If the core is moderately at 0.2%, there will be a rebound, but whether it lasts depends on how the Fed signals afterward. Anyway, before the data, everyone is in risk-off mode; don't take sides prematurely. It's not too late to act after the release, so no need to rush.$PEPE lying down! The frog is going to sue!
Canary Capital's S-1 spot PEPE ETF was submitted to the SEC on April 9, featuring a design with 5% ETH to pay Gas, which the market uncovered this week, causing PEPE to be stuck to the point of explosion.
On August 5 alone, whales withdrew 4.54 trillion PEPE from exchanges, marking the largest single-day outflow since November 2024. The top 100 non-exchange wallets increased holdings by 3.54 trillion in August, with Smart Money positioning soaring by +307%. There were 7 whale transfers each exceeding $1 million, $112.6M in on-chain transactions over the past 30 days, and 327 wallets monitoring. Circulating supply is 420.69T, market cap $1.49B firmly holding third place in memes, 24h volume over $200M. If the spot PEPE ETF gets approved, it will be the first wave of legitimization from the wild path.
But this asset is basically 3 to 5 times leveraged on BTC. BTC is currently stuck between $77k-$82k, unable to break out. The FOMC meeting on September 15-16 is imminent, with the probability of a rate hike jumping from 34% to 57-60%, non-farm payrolls unexpectedly strong, and CPI pending. This week, the meme sector overall rose 6%, but PEPE only increased 1.3%, underperforming its meme neighbors, showing signs of a breakdown. The top 10 wallets hold 41% of circulating supply, attracting and intimidating institutions alike. The RSI is oversold at 21 but the movement is a slow decline, not a crash.
Either the FOMC doves and BTC takes off, or it follows the sell-off. Funds are really tight, and the script is truly a double bet. A coin that has been falling for 8 consecutive years rebounded for 3 days thanks to a single burn!
The recent surge of $IOST makes people forget what kind of asset it really is... Looking at its yearly closing prices:
2018 closed at 0.0257
2019 at 0.0084
2020 at 0.0053
2022 at 0.0176
2023 at 0.0091
2024 at 0.0077
2025 at 0.0037
2026 only 0.0010 left
Eight years, just ask yourself if this data is clear enough!
The levels drop year by year. From the all-time high of 0.1298, it has fallen 99.2%.
This time the trigger was the burn of 70 million old tokens, combined with concentrated short selling. On September 9th, it rose 63%, and on the 10th it surged intraday to 0.00245, then started to pull back. Trading volume on September 9th and 10th exploded to 7.7 billion and 8.7 billion tokens respectively, hundreds of times the usual volume.
$IOST dropped 9.17% today, currently priced at 0.0009388, retreating over 60% from the high but still holding above the MA20 (0.00074)—this is the only thing still holding in this round.
A friendly reminder from Kuzi: a technical rebound like this cannot change an 8-year trend. If 0.0009 doesn't hold, look down to 0.00055. Don't mistake a pulse for a reversal. #伊朗允许BTC与USDT外贸结算
This basically confirms once again the ironclad rule in the crypto market that “good news often leads to a price drop.”
This morning I saw news that Iran is relaxing foreign exchange controls and tacitly allowing companies to use BTC and USDT for foreign trade settlements. Many people shouted that this is a national-level crypto adoption and a long-term major positive, holding their positions ready to chase the rally. At first glance, I was tempted too—after all, a sanctioned country officially using crypto for trade sounds like a big narrative that could last a long time.
But when it came time to hit the buy button, I suddenly hesitated. A while ago, on the day the US-Iran reconciliation memorandum was finalized, the whole network was flooded with bullish news, but the market surged for only ten minutes before turning down, and those who chased the highs got trapped at the peak. After hesitating for a few seconds, I decided to hold back and watch.
By the afternoon, BTC not only failed to rally as expected but actually closed slightly lower. The short-term funds that rushed in this morning took a small pullback. What seemed like a heavy national-level positive couldn’t even sustain half a day’s market movement.
If you think it through, it’s clear that this policy is essentially a “tacit approval,” not formal legislation, and could be revoked at any time; plus, the current settlement scale is limited. It’s more of a temporary measure by Iran to cope with sanctions, far from reconstructing crypto demand. The market always trades on expectations, and when news is fully digested and everyone knows about it, that’s when early investors cash out their profits.
This event tells us:
1. Don’t get blinded by the big label of “national-level positive.” Most crypto news is more storytelling than substance; positives known to retail investors are basically priced in already.
2. Don’t chase highs when good news is realized; it’s a rule for survival. You can follow during the expectation phase, but at the moment the news is officially confirmed, be wary of funds dumping to take profits.
3. In trading, every impulsive trade you avoid is one less pitfall you fall into. Not every opportunity must be seized; missing out is always better than losing on something you don’t understand or hesitate about.The ECB hikes rates and PPI explodes; I really dare not move before tonight's CPI showdown
The European Central Bank suddenly announced a 25 basis point rate hike, not only raising inflation expectations for the next two to three years but also openly listing the Middle East situation as the biggest upside risk. Immediately after, the US August PPI surged to 5.4%, significantly exceeding market expectations. These successive heavy blows have completely shattered many people's fantasies of easing.
Although the core PPI month-on-month increase of 0.2% was slightly below expectations, it cannot stop the inflation costs from crude oil and commodity prices aggressively pushing upstream. The rise in commodity prices is like spilled ink on the ground; sooner or later, it will seep through the supply chain to downstream consumption. Once the data was released, US Treasury yields and the dollar soared, global liquidity was fiercely drained, and the market even began panic-driven pricing for a Fed rate hike on September 16.
Everyone's eyes are now fixed tightly on tonight's August CPI, which has almost become the most critical verdict before the policy meeting.
Looking at the red positions in my account, my heart is really in turmoil right now. If tonight's CPI really explodes along with the upstream data, combined with the global central banks' hawkish moves, the market will likely plunge deeply, and holding on will definitely be painful. But if the recent sharp rise in US Treasuries and the dollar has already priced in the bad news in advance, the data release might trigger a violent short squeeze after the bad news is fully out. Cutting losses now would be like handing over chips just before dawn?
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 $ETH CPI data will be released in a few hours
Currently, oil prices are rising. If the price of crude oil combined with CPI exceeds market expectations, it will lead to further rate hike expectations, which would completely cool down and crash the market. But if it is below expectations, that would be too far-fetched.
The previous PPI has already exceeded expectations, and the overall market rate hike expectations have risen significantly. With oil prices breaking through $100, an overall CPI increase is highly likely, but the biggest concern is oil prices transmitting to core inflation. If it is only energy price increases, the Fed's pressure will be much less.
This is the last major inflation data before the Fed's rate hike meeting next week, directly deciding whether to raise rates by 25BP. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #10-year US Treasury yield nears 5% threshold, repo operations fail to stop yield rise
The global asset pricing anchor is experiencing severe volatility. The US Treasury has intensified long-term Treasury repo operations in an attempt to suppress yields, but with little effect. The 10-year Treasury yield continues to surge, now close to the 5% mark.
The Treasury has raised the repo limit, allowing up to 6 billion in long-term bonds to be repurchased at once, but actual purchases fall short of market expectations. Compared to the over 40 trillion outstanding US Treasuries, the repo volume is just a drop in the bucket, only improving short-term liquidity and unable to resolve the fundamental contradiction of high fiscal deficits and continuous large-scale new debt issuance. Coupled with inflation concerns driven by rising oil prices, the market is selling off Treasuries, causing yields to rise rather than fall.
Personal view: The 10-year Treasury yield approaching 5% presents a dual challenge to the crypto market.
1. Rising yields increase the risk-free rate, which suppresses risk asset valuations. $BTC and $ETH are likely to face short-term pressure and may trigger contract liquidations;
2. However, if the yield increase stems from fiscal debt risk rather than pure inflation, it will strengthen the safe-haven narrative for hard assets, providing medium- to long-term logical support for Bitcoin and gold.
3. Repo operations are only a palliative measure. As long as fiscal supply pressure is not alleviated, the pattern of high-level yield volatility is unlikely to change quickly. Meanwhile, upcoming CPI and PPI inflation data will further amplify bond market fluctuations.Whale Loracle shorted $HYPE and lost 40 million USD!
Truly the first airdrop of this round's genuine shorting Meme
Loracle holds $PONS and $CASHCAT with two short positions floating a profit of 2.3 million USD. But on-chain records show: HYPE trades lost over 40 million, with a total loss of 25 million USD.
The harshest question is: where did the bullets come from?
At peak, 4.948 million HYPE tokens were staked (385 million USD), now only 97,000 remain. He is selling HYPE spot to cover margin for the HYPE short positions.
Short positions profit when HYPE falls; when HYPE drops, spot value shrinks and bullets become fewer. This is not hedging, it's cutting your own arteries to feed yourself.
June's classic: just closed a 46 million loss short position, reversed to long the next day, opening at 70.5 USD right at the peak, and cut losses at 54.57 by the end of July. Even whales can't escape losing.
Overseas KOLs raised eight figures to "hunt" him, but haven't acted yet—not out of mercy, but because they've done the math.
Watching how much HYPE he still has to sell—that's the real ending of this story. Long and Short Crowding List
First identify high-cost positions, then verify with price-position feedback; do not directly translate positive and negative rates into long or short answers.
$RAY current rate -0.2729%, settled -0.379% in the past 24 hours, at the 2% percentile of recent samples. A 15-minute decline accompanied by risk exposure contraction; first observe the speed of position reduction, do not write it as new short positions. Even with extreme rates, the most certain conclusion when OI contracts is deleveraging; which side is exiting cannot be concluded from this data alone.
$CNPY current rate -0.0592%, settled -0.398% in the past 24 hours, at the 13% percentile of recent samples. A 15-minute rise accompanied by risk exposure contraction; first watch for recovery, do not prematurely write it as a new long structure. OI contraction indicates risk exposure is withdrawing; the rate only suggests which side has higher costs and cannot replace detailed close position directions.
$ZEC current rate -0.0129%, settled +0.006% in the past 24 hours, at the 0% percentile of recent samples. The rise was not accompanied by position withdrawal; new positions have already participated, but continuation depends on subsequent price response. The past payment direction and next period cost have reversed; sentiment switches quickly, but without position support, treat it as short-term repricing first.Bypassing SGX's offshore rules to bring US capital into Asian perpetuals
Volume has already reached about 5.8 billion, but Americans have not truly entered the market yet
Singapore Exchange obtained CFTC Regulation 48.10 authorization, allowing US institutions to directly trade its BTC and ETH perpetuals without registering as a US stock exchange. From last November to this August, cumulative turnover reached about 5.8 billion USD, approximately 400,000 contracts, with Bitcoin accounting for about 83% of daily volume and 66% of open interest, and an average daily notional value of about 19 million
Authorization does not mean immediate opening. US clearing members usually take 2 to 4 weeks to open accounts, and it is expected to take another 1 to 2 months to gradually connect. The mechanism is more like traditional futures: margin calls require additional collateral, no automatic liquidation, and no stablecoin collateral accepted
During the same period, spot ETFs lost about 450 million in three days, and mainstream BTC seven-day open interest was cut by about 840 million. The channel is a long-term structure, while short-term market is still synchronously offloading riskUS CPI tonight: $BTC is at a decisive zone
$BTC is hovering around $77,000, after losing momentum from the $80,000 area. The current focus is no longer on a single dump, but on the US CPI and bond yield reactions.
If inflation is higher than expected, the market may continue to lower expectations for monetary easing → yields and USD face upward pressure → crypto is likely to be highly volatile.
#BTCSpotETFOutflows I compared the closing data of the Hang Seng Index and the Nasdaq Index to see if the index decline could explain individual stocks. The result was that it couldn't: the index only fell by less than one point, but Luoyang Molybdenum, MiniMax, and Sun Hung Kai Properties each dropped more than seven points.
This indicates that the selling pressure is not a unified release of macro sentiment but is concentrated on a few specific stocks. The index is supported by heavyweight stocks, but the pricing power of individual stocks has already been handed over to their respective holder structures.
The lesson is that using the index to judge individual stock risk will fail in a differentiated market. The next step is to focus on these few stocks that fell more than seven points and see if their trading volume continues to increase. If the volume shrinks and the decline stops, it indicates a local turnover; if the volume expands and the price probes lower, then the calmness of the index is just an illusion.
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向
#10年期美债逼近5%关口，回购难阻收益率上行 #BTC与黄金90日相关性升至+0.50 $BTC #Spot ETF capital inflow, can BTC and ETH take turns?
#BTC spot ETF continuous outflow
Institutional allocation in the crypto market is shifting: the total BTC ETF pool is about $79.5 billion, ETH only about $10.7 billion, a difference of more than 7 times. But looking at marginal flow rates, the story changes:
• In July 2026, ETH spot ETF net inflow was about $365 million, BTC only $205 million, ETH nearly doubled BTC, marking the first monthly reversal since listing;
• In the first week of August, BTC ETF net inflow was $854 million, ETH also had $245 million, and by AUM proportion, ETH’s "capital attraction efficiency" is clearly higher than BTC;
• The ETH/BTC price ratio bounced from 0.024 in May to 0.030 in August, +25%.
Let's analyze the logic behind this situation:
1. Staking yield: BlackRock’s ETHB annualized distribution is 1.9%–2.6%, BTC ETF offers none;
2. Narrative upgrade: stablecoin settlement + RWA tokenization reprice ETH as an "interest-bearing settlement layer," not a BTC substitute;
3. Allocation is not withdrawal but rebalancing — institutions haven’t cleared BTC, they are adding ETH exposure on top of BTC base positions. The same is a pullback, but ZEC, SOPH, and PUMP represent three completely different ways to die.
$ZEC dropped from 1296 to 1080, a 17% retracement, but the decline came with volume; yesterday's single-day trading volume was $350 million, 1.2 times the 7-day average. A volume-driven drop means chips are changing hands, not that no one wants it. Today, volume shrank and stabilized, with bulls and bears temporarily shaking hands.
$SOPH is much worse. On the 7th, it surged from 0.0058 to 0.0139, then two days later crashed back to 0.0042, a 70% drop from the high. Three days up and two days down essentially means funds pumped it up on news to distribute, and all the buyers are chasing the rally.
$PUMP is the most frustrating. No single-day crash, just a daily slow decline of one or two percent, a 25% retracement over a week, with volume consistently moderate. This is the easiest to overlook because it looks like it could "rebound anytime," but in reality, no one is buying.
Among these three patterns, I pay more attention to ZEC; a volume-driven drop means the story isn't over. Which of these three do you still hold? #US August PPI recorded 5.4% On September 10, the US Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a total net outflow of $283 million in a single day, marking the highest single-day outflow since July 30 in nearly a month. Breaking down by product, ARK's ARKB was the main source of the outflow, with a single-day outflow of $164 million, followed by Grayscale's GBTC with an outflow of $36.38 million. BlackRock's IBIT, Fidelity's FBTC, Bitwise's BITB, and Vaneck's HODL all experienced varying degrees of capital withdrawal, while only Morgan Stanley's MSBT bucked the trend with a slight net inflow of $3.98 million.
This wave of redemptions stems from changes in the macro environment. The rebound in PPI inflation data, rising diesel prices combined with the massive US debt problem, have reignited market concerns about Federal Reserve rate hikes. Facing uncertainty, some institutions have chosen to lock in profits and withdraw funds from ETFs to hedge risks.
The core question now: is this just a short-term profit-taking, or will it evolve into a sustained capital outflow?
Tonight's CPI data, combined with next week's FOMC meeting, will largely determine the subsequent ETF capital flow and directly impact the BTC market. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #Spot ETF capital inflow, can BTC and ETH take turns?
#BTC spot ETF continuous outflow
Institutional allocation in the crypto market is shifting: the total BTC ETF pool is about $79.5 billion, ETH only about $10.7 billion, a difference of more than 7 times. But looking at marginal flow rates, the picture changes:
• In July 2026, ETH spot ETF net inflow was about $365 million, BTC only $205 million, ETH nearly doubled BTC, marking the first monthly reversal since listing;
• In the first week of August, BTC ETF net inflow was $854 million, ETH also had $245 million, and by AUM proportion, ETH’s "capital attraction efficiency" is clearly higher than BTC;
• The ETH/BTC price ratio bounced from 0.024 in May to 0.030 in August, a +25% increase.
Let's analyze the logic behind this situation:
1. Staking yield: BlackRock’s ETHB annualized distribution is 1.9%–2.6%, BTC ETF offers none;
2. Narrative upgrade: stablecoin settlement + RWA tokenization reprice ETH as an "interest-bearing settlement layer," not a BTC substitute;
3. The allocation is not a retreat but a rebalancing — institutions haven’t cleared BTC, they are adding ETH exposure on top of BTC base positions. Currently, BTC is exhibiting an abnormal phenomenon not seen in the past 17 years. $BTC $ETH $SNDK In this potential bottom zone, the market appears calm on the surface, with no panic or frantic buying seen by retail investors. On the contrary, on-chain traces appear unusually quiet, but the data honestly records that someone is secretly and continuously accumulating shares slowly. This "silent buying" pattern is unprecedented in Bitcoin's 17-year history of data. So, who exactly is buying in secret? Analyst Willy Woo speculates that this may be a move by a super large buyer or a very small number of core players. But I lean more toward the view that retail investors buy Bitcoin by chasing highs and selling lows, while real institutional funds avoid being detected by the market when building positions. When prices fall, they not rush to rally; instead, they take advantage of the market's quiet and sluggishness to calmly accumulate shares. Of course, this undercurrent does not mean Bitcoin has completely bottomed out. With the popularization of Bitcoin spot ETFs and institutional custody, the logic of on-chain games has already undergone profound changes. But if there really is such hidden accumulation at the bottom, then the strangest phenomenon in the current market is that the vast majority are still waiting for Bitcoin to give a clear direction, while the truly smart money has already placed bets ahead of time when no one is interested. As for whether the investors are super whales or the traditional institutions behind the ETFs, I personally guess that institutional funds behind ETFs dominate, despite the current situationCPI Major Preview! The market is betting on a slight cooling of inflation, a marginal decline in core inflation, and the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish bias. However, the PPI is strongly exceeding expectations, making market expectations extremely fragile. Once the data deviates, the market will immediately undergo severe repricing. Current CME FedWatch data: the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to 72.4%, and the expectation of a rate cut within the year has significantly cooled. If the CPI falls short of expectations (overall/core CPI below expectations),
Risk appetite will significantly recover, growth stocks will lead the index rebound, and market sentiment will improve.
1. Falling interest rates directly benefit long-duration tech assets; semiconductors, AI, computing power, and equipment sectors will see valuation repairs.
2. Previously oversold high-growth sectors will experience obvious capital inflows.
Even if CPI cools down, the upstream cost pressure from the currently high PPI remains.
Energy and material costs will not fall in the short term, so:
✅ This is not a one-sided bull market reversal
✅ It is a structural rebound characterized by "sentiment repair + valuation repair"
✅ High-level targets will still fluctuate, only oversold quality targets will have stronger elasticity
1. Inflation stickiness risk
PPI leads the rise; if CPI cannot effectively cool down, confirming a second rise in US inflation with strong stickiness, the Fed will find it difficult to ease in the future.
2. Tech valuation bubble risk
Semiconductor and AI sectors have had large gains and high valuations previously, are extremely sensitive to interest rates, and have very low tolerance for errors. Once data turns negative, volatility will far exceed the broader market.
3. Expectation deviation risk
The market is originally betting on cooling inflation with optimistic pre-positioned sentiment; if it falls short of expectations, panic selling is very likely.Evening of 9.11 (High rate hike expectations)
Focus on the 1060 resistance level
ZEC has recently surged violently, with speculative sentiment reaching a peak. Futures trading volume far exceeds spot volume, with a large influx of leveraged funds. Shorts are continuously liquidated, pushing the price upward.
The short-term rise is mostly driven by capital speculation rather than fundamental improvements. The risk of shorting is extremely high, and the market can easily continue to squeeze shorts. Do not blindly short against the trend.
Pay close attention to funding rates and futures open interest; once sentiment cools down, a rapid correction may occur.
⚠️ The above is for sharing opinions only and does not constitute investment advice. Please strictly control position size and set stop losses when trading contracts. #宇树科技科创板首日开盘暴涨629%，高估值如何兑现？ $UNITREE After listing, the valuation bubble quickly deflated, with multiple negative factors continuously suppressing the market. First, the performance growth rate sharply declined: revenue growth for 2025 is 332%, but in the first half of 2026 it directly dropped to 48.54%, and net profit excluding non-recurring items fell by 19.34% year-on-year, disproving the high growth expectations. The IPO issuance price-to-earnings ratio was as high as 219 times, far exceeding the industry average. The early stage of listing overdrawn the long-term story, and after the sentiment cooled, the pressure for valuation to return was huge.
The business structure has obvious shortcomings, with over 70% of revenue coming from scientific research and education procurement. The industrial and household commercialization progress is slow, humanoid robots have limited generalization ability, and large-scale commercial use still requires time. Downstream customers heavily rely on university budgets, and once research funding shrinks, performance will be directly pressured.
On the technical side, it is specialized: hardware motion control strength is outstanding, but the self-developed embodied large model (AI brain) capability is weak, relying more on external platforms. Facing competitors like Tesla and Zhiyuan investing in AI, long-term competitiveness is questionable. Industry competition intensifies, price wars have started, gross margin dropped from 60.7% to 56.01%, with continued pressure risk ahead, and market share is also being squeezed by competitors.
Overseas business also has hidden risks: overseas revenue accounts for more than 40%, US export control policies are uncertain, and new products face certification blockage risks; meanwhile, some raw materials depend on imports, and supply chain stability is uncertain. Tonight at 20:30, U.S. CPI data will be released, affecting the Federal Reserve's decision. At 20:30 tonight, a basket of U.S. August CPI inflation data will be released. This is the most crucial inflation report ahead of the Fed's September 16 meeting, and the crypto world must pay close attention. Let's first look at the current market consensus expectations: overall annual inflation forecast is 3.4%, unchanged from the previous value; core annual inflation forecast is 2.4%, down from last month's 2.5%. Monthly inflation forecast is 0.4%, a significant increase from the previous 0.1%; core monthly inflation forecast remains unchanged at 0.2%. The expected data itself is quite contradictory. The overall CPI forecast is rising mainly because Middle Eastern tensions have pushed up crude oil and energy sector prices have risen. But excluding food and energy, core CPI is expected to slightly decline, indicating signs of easing endogenous services inflation. This divergence means tonight's market is likely to see bullish and bearish tug-of-war, with pins being common. This CPI will directly change the probability of a Fed rate hike in September. If the final release exceeds expectations and hawkish expectations heat up, risk assets like Bitcoin will face downward pressure; If data falls short of expectations, the market will gamble on the Fed to pause tightening, and Bitcoin will see a short-term rebound. However, it should be viewed rationally: even with positive data, it is difficult to immediately start a major bull market. The inflation risks brought by energy still exist, and the Fed will not easily signal easing. The market volatility is high in news sources, so it is not recommended to heavily invest in positions early to bet on direction. Patiently wait for the data to materialize, combined with market candlestick signals before making judgments, which will be much safer. (Personal opinion only.)In terms of capital flows, the ETH spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $36.2 million, while the BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $115 million. Meanwhile, the ETH/BTC exchange rate has climbed to a nearly 12-week high. Key technical levels: * Support level: $2,425 – $2,450 * Downside warning line: $2,380 * Resistance: $2,520 – $2,545 If a strong breakout accompanied by increased volume occurs, the target will be $2,680. For now, the US CPI data to be released tonight/tomorrow remains the most important catalyst for the market.Will $SNDK fall below 1600? It's hard to say
If it drops another 2% on top of yesterday's decline, it will break through quickly
The heat on chips isn't that strong now; they're all falling
As a tech stock in the US market, SanDisk is the first to fall along
As long as the CPI data updates at 20:30 tonight, we'll know how much it drops
Most likely it will still fall; several countries have raised interest rates, what about the US?
September's market is very volatile; the first half of the month is down
If the second half turns profitable, the US stock market will surge again. Long live being out of the market
#闪迪高位波动，存储股估值分歧加剧 Review of ZEC in recent days: Privacy narrative combined with a short squeeze, increased high-level risk
In recent days, ZEC has experienced an independent short squeeze rally, strengthening against the market trend amid overall market volatility, once surging to around $1256, with a huge short-term gain, becoming the market focus. This round of rise is driven by multiple factors resonating: Grayscale's ZEC spot ETF brings institutional capital inflow, the privacy asset narrative is fermenting, combined with a large number of shorts being liquidated, the short squeeze further pushes the price upward.
The market characteristics are very obvious: contract leverage is extremely high, futures trading volume far exceeds spot, the rise relies on short liquidations providing buy orders, making it an emotion-driven market. The stronger the rally, the greater the leverage risk; once longs take profits, it easily triggers a chain of liquidations, causing a very rapid pullback.
It is important to distinguish the underlying logic: part of it is institutions optimistic about the privacy sector, with real buy orders from ETFs and institutional treasuries; but more is short-term speculative funds rushing in, chasing the narrative at high prices, not all coming from fundamental demand.
At the same time, it must be recognized that ZEC is a high-beta altcoin and cannot completely detach from the BTC market. If BTC undergoes a significant correction, even if the privacy narrative remains, ZEC will find it difficult to stand alone. #ZEC跻身前十，机构化进程提速 #ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元