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8.9 Weekend Morning Crypto Market Exclusive News Brief
I. Core Macro Market News
Positive Factors
1. US July Nonfarm Payrolls Significantly Miss Expectations, Rate Cut Expectations Rise, Bullish for Crypto Assets
July nonfarm employment decreased by 23,000, with the previous two months' data revised downward. The market's probability of a Fed rate hike in September dropped from 55% to 44%, and long-term rate cut bets surged; the US dollar index weakened, US Treasury yields declined, and risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum received liquidity support. Last week, the Nasdaq rose 5.19% in a single week, the largest weekly gain since April, tech sector sentiment warmed, and tokenized stocks (SanDisk, Hynix) strengthened in tandem.
2. Middle East Hormuz Strait Situation Eases, Oil Prices Plummet, Inflation Pressure Relieved
Iran and Iraq finalized a framework for Strait shipping agreements, likely reaching a navigation agreement shortly. Crude oil prices fell to around $76, easing global inflation concerns and undermining the underlying logic for aggressive Fed rate hikes. Overall risk appetite increased, and the crypto market slightly and steadily rose over the weekend.
3. Gold Price Surges to $4400, Safe-Haven and Inflation-Hedge Funds Diverted from Crypto
Alongside safe-haven allocations to precious metals, some funds flowed into BTC as digital gold. BTC firmly held the $65,000 level, showing a solid base.
Negative Factors
1. US CLARITY Crypto Regulation Bill Vote Delayed to September
Originally planned for Senate voting in August, the vote was postponed, temporarily removing regulatory downside risks. However, policy uncertainty remains in September, causing large investors to stay cautious. Weekend crypto trading volume shrank overall, with mainly sideways movement and no strong directional trend.
2. US Storage Chip Sector Weakness Weighs on SanDisk and Hynix Tokens
Last Friday, native US storage stocks broadly declined, with Seagate, SanDisk, and SK Hynix all dropping over 3%. Tokenized stocks opened under pressure, facing correction selling. This is the core macro negative basis for your SanDisk short position.
3. Renewed Expectations of Potential Yen Intervention
Japan's Finance Minister stated that direct market intervention to support the yen would occur if necessary. A strong yen rebound would trigger carry trade fund inflows, withdrawing leveraged funds from crypto markets and suppressing high-leverage contract rallies.
II. Crypto Industry News
1. Liquidation Data: 66,200 Liquidations in 24 Hours, 60% Are Short Liquidations
The slight weekend rally triggered short stop-loss cascades, with short-term bullish sentiment prevailing. However, no significant new capital entered, indicating a zero-sum game. Avoid blindly chasing highs.
2. EU MiCA Regulatory Transition Period Officially Implemented, Liquidity Concentrates on Leading Platforms
Small exchanges continue clearing users, while top platforms like OKX and Coinbase see further liquidity concentration. Altcoins deeply diverge; quality narrative coins resist declines, while low-quality altcoins are prone to sharp drops.
3. OpenAI Adjusts AI Model Development, Slight Cooling in Compute Sector
Some crypto compute tokens relying on AI narratives face short-term pressure. ETH and SOL show relatively independent and stable trends.
III. Mainstream Coin Real-Time Market + Key Levels
1. BTC: $65,043, slightly +0.08%
Support at 64,700, resistance at 65,500; range-bound consolidation, building strength on rate cut expectations. As long as 64,500 is not broken, the overall trend remains bullish.
2. ETH: $1,921, +0.39%
Short-term support at 1,900, first resistance at 1,945, strong resistance at 1,970; narrow weekend consolidation, awaiting Wednesday's US CPI data to choose direction. A low CPI will directly boost prices; a high CPI will quickly test 1,880.
3. SOL: +3.52%, strong leader among altcoins this week
Supported by AI and public chain narratives, strong short-term momentum. Suitable for buying dips, not chasing highs.
IV. Key Asset Special Analysis
1. SanDisk XSNDK
- Macro Negative: US storage sector sharply declined last week, short-term industry sentiment weakens
- Market Outlook: Korean stock market closed over the weekend, token lacks linked momentum, narrow range consolidation; Monday's Korean market open may see two-way spikes. For your short position, a rebound to the 1,485 range is a good opportunity to hedge with long positions to reduce short costs. This approach is feasible but strictly use 85x high leverage stop-loss.
V. Weekend Trading Strategy + Watchlist
1. Overall Environment: Range-bound market with no clear trend. The main directional catalyst is Wednesday's July CPI data. The data quality will directly determine the Fed's path and trigger a major crypto market move.
2. Contract Risk Control Reminder: Weekend liquidity is low, frequent spikes occur. High leverage (85x) positions must reduce size to avoid slippage liquidations due to shallow markets.
3. Long/Short Direction: Medium to long-term rate cut expectations are bullish for crypto; short-term US storage sector weakness weighs on SanDisk and Hynix tokens, which have stronger short-term bearish bias.
VI. Next Week's Key Event Calendar
1. Wednesday: US July CPI and Core CPI (most important data for the market)
2. Thursday: PPI Price Data
3. Friday: US Retail Sales Data
4. Ongoing Watch: Whether the Iran-Iraq Strait Agreement is officially announced $SNDK #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 #存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？ Gold keeps hitting new all-time highs, US stock indices have strengthened, but cryptocurrencies have been trading sideways in place, while Bitcoin and Ethereum have been narrowly consolidating for a full 13 trading days.
Many people wonder: with the rising enthusiasm in the peripheral markets, why has Bitcoin never found a new direction?
Currently, BTC's trading range is locked at $62,000-65,000, while Ethereum hovers around $1,870. The bulls and bears are in an extreme balance, with three layers of strategic factors behind the scenes.
First, there are clear divergences in capital flows. US institutional funds continue to reduce holdings and exit, while Asian funds buy on dips. Coinbase's Bitcoin negative premium has lasted 80 days, setting a record for the longest period in history. Funds on both sides hedge back and forth, making it difficult for prices to break out of a one-sided rally. Even though the cumulative inflow of $626 million from spot ETFs in August was mostly short-term arbitrage funds, with investors cashing in and exiting. Truly long-term incremental capital inflows are limited and insufficient to drive a trend.
Second, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains unresolved. Internal officials are divided, with ongoing debates between rate hikers and those on hold, market expectations for the timing of rate cuts fluctuate repeatedly, macro uncertainty suppresses risk asset valuations, and funds are choosing to wait for key data such as CPI to signal a delay.
Third, the impact of regulatory news has already been absorbed in advance. The vote on the CLARITY crypto bill has been postponed to September 14, greatly reducing the chances of its implementation within the year. As early as July, news of the suspension was broken, and the market had already completed a round of downward adjustment ahead of schedule. This official delay is a typical example of the negative news being exhausted, making it difficult for further major volatility.
Sideways consolidation is the process of the market spring continuously gathering strength.
The next downward trend will be at the $65,000 level; only by holding this level with increased volume can the long-term consolidation end; If multiple attempts fail, the grinding trend will continue $BTC $ETH $XAU ETH is now around 1920, grinding close to the 7-day high. On the surface, it looks pretty strong—the price is above the short-term moving average, and it's rising in 24 hours. On the sentiment side, ETFs are feeding in five-week net inflows, so the market is bullish.
But I hesitate a bit at this position, because the problem is how to get the money in. On the futures side, there is indeed a long position, with actively executed buying making up 60%. The rate has turned positive, indicating that the bulls are adding to the futures market.
But the spot side is completely different. In the past 3 hours, there has been a significant net outflow of large spot orders, with not a single positive candlestick on all 12 candlesticks. The order book looks thick, but the majority of active trades are sells. To put it bluntly, this wave seems more like contracts and sentiment pushing the market, with real cash and spot contracts failing to keep up.
The price is still below the 200-day moving average, the MACD is also bearish, the ADX shows little trend, and volatility has been pushed to the extreme — if you choose the wrong direction, volatility can be very difficult.
So I won't chase here. ETFs and sentiment are real positive news, but spot is pulling out and prices are above the upper end of the range, so chasing in is not cost-effective. Wait for a pullback and see if spot can hold on.
#eth $ETHNon-farm farms are implemented, yet the market seems to have been muted; this kind of "nothing happening" actually sends chills down people's spines. Have you noticed that nowadays, even data can't move the market? Last night, I stared at the screen, $ETH long position hanging on 1913, 50x leverage, originally hoping the non-farm farm would give some direction. And what happened? Whether the rise is complete or the drop is not sharp, it draws a straight line, as if saying: What's the rush, just wait a little longer. This market is even more troubling than a crash. Let me start with a few details I observed: - $ETH repeatedly rubbed around 1900, with 1920-1940 above like a wall, and below at 1870, someone quietly followed up. Both bulls and bears were waiting for the other side to make the first move. - $BTC Quieter, no violent upward movement to stir emotions, no panic to create opportunities; big money is like a collective vacation, with money standing outside watching the show. - $BEAT This highly elastic altcoin has been relatively active in the past two days, but it's clearly a "dot-shaped rally"—rush in when there's news, pull back when there's no buzz, and have no intention of sustaining the attack. - $SNDK's AI storage logic is intact, and data center demand remains, but the market is not buying "whether it's good or not," but "whether it exceeds expectations." Expectations are too high, and the arrival of positive news has ironically become a reason to sell. Many people interpret this calm as "no market moves," but I actually think the market is trading in a different way. Previously, when data came out, BTC and ETH would fluctuate by hundreds or thousands of points in an instant, driven by sentiment. Now$BTC is still at this breakout level for tech stocks (Nasdaq 100) in 2023.
It has been hovering in this area for several months, as BTC has been almost completely unaffected by stock market fluctuations over the past few weeks.
The biggest reason the entire crypto market has been suppressed is the massive speculation and major moves in the stock market. This is mainly due to speculation in AI/memory/semiconductors and a large-scale rebound.
Speculation and volatility were once among the biggest attractions of cryptocurrencies. This year, it had to give away the spotlight to other industries, making any meaningful rebounds unlikely to happen.
I'm pretty sure it and $ETH will eventually come back, but as time goes on and the market matures, this will become less common. As we've clearly seen over the years. #存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable? #CLARITY表决推迟至9月, #黄金升破4300美元 regulatory window is moving back, is the capital staking interest rate cuts or safe havens? There really wasn't much market activity over the weekend; Bitcoin and Ethereum were holding steady, so I checked the US stock market and was shocked by the SPCX trend.
This morning, it surged straight to 141, rising more than 30% from around 105 before the lock-up lift in just a few days. Previously, the market was calling the unlocking a major bad news, saying that over 900 million shares would definitely fall. But what happened? Not only did it not fall, it actually became fuel for the price to surge. Citigroup also joined the frenzy, raising the target price to 220 and upgrading the rating to buy. Previously, short positions piled up $24.6 billion, and the stock price rose instead of falling. Bears were forced to close out and cover their positions, and this rebound pushed the price even higher, causing it to stamp down.
This rapid rally is partly due to all the negative news from lock-up unlocking, and the macro environment is also helping. After the nonfarm payroll data weakened, the probability of rate hikes decreased, and US Treasury yields also fell. For high-valuation growth stocks like SPCX, the biggest fear is rising interest rates. Now that interest rate expectations have eased and valuation pressure eases, stock prices naturally have room to rise.
Gold $XAU also performed strongly this week, rising 7% to reach $4,340. Looking at the candlesticks of gold and SPCX side by side, the rhythm is almost synchronized: both started before the non-farm payroll season and accelerated after the data came out. These two seemingly unrelated assets are actually trading the same thing: an improved interest rate environment.
On the same macro positive note, SPCX surged to 141, while SanDisk was still hovering around 1200. Earnings both exceeded expectations and fell 7%, and non-farm payroll news couldn't save the situation. Funds just didn't want to buy at this level, so there was no choice. This reminded me of when I was holding ARB—you thought the logic was sound, but the market refused to accept it, so it wouldn't rise.
There's also $BEAT, which surged and then fell back a few days ago, but tonight the buy volume started to increase again. I might try a short long position lightly, set stop-losses, and admit mistakes—after all, the position is small and doesn't hurt.
The real highlight is next Wednesday's CPI data, which will be the key battle to determine the future direction. That's how it will be this weekend—just browse through the market for opportunities, and big fluctuations will be discussed next week.CLARITY法案又推迟了。从8月推到了9月。预测市场给通过的概率只有20%。
我上次说过这件事，今天换个角度讲。
银行游说团体花了三个月时间想杀掉这个法案。a16z的政策负责人Miles Jennings说了一句很精彩的话："银行在加速自己的灭亡。"
逻辑是这样的：GENIUS法案已经通过了，稳定币可以合法地在链上流转。如果没有CLARITY法案限制稳定币付息，那加密中间商就会继续给稳定币存款付利息——这恰恰是银行最害怕的事。
银行想禁止稳定币付息。它拼命阻挠的法案，恰恰是唯一能禁止这件事的法案。
结果呢？它什么都不用做，只要拖。拖到9月，拖到明年，拖到大家忘了这件事。
我的判断：CLARITY法案大概率在2026年过不了。但没关系。GENIUS法案已经打开了口子，链上的美元一旦开始流动，就再也停不下来。银行越抵抗，越显得过时。💧 Post-close liquidity review: focus on capital, not candlesticks. The overall liquidity environment in the market has improved, but funds are acting with high selectivity 📊
On the institutional side, ETF capital flows are warming up, with a clear focus on $BTC; Meanwhile, the broader market is still waiting for confirmation signals of "liquidity expansion"—whether funds are truly spilling over beyond the leading assets.
Macro clues are gradually becoming clearer: 🗂 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July. If CPI confirms inflation cooling, the market may price in the Fed's easing path ahead of time, supporting liquidity expectations for risk assets.
⚠️ But the biggest variable remains in Hormuz. If the energy supply cutoff continues, oil price pressures may reshape the inflation narrative, and the dollar and US Treasury yields will remain resilient.
Within crypto, liquidity is clearly hierarchical: 👑 $BTC—core anchoring 🏛; $ETH—institutional rotation ⚡; $SOL—high Beta trends 🟡; $BNB/$XRP—stable large-cap 🔗 $LINK/$AAVE—infrastructure and DeFi 🤖 $TAO/$WLD—AI narrative 🚀; $SUI/$HYPE—speculative heat
The market doesn't need all coins to rise simultaneously; it needs funds to continuously spill over into new sectors. Before this, selective rotation remains the dominant scenario.
#Liquidity #Crypto
#CryptoThe load-bearing wall is moving! Uniswap poured the launchpad's rebar directly into the foundation of V4's liquidity pool—a 0.25% LP fee, which in the token market essentially splits the original 1% 'toll fee' per floor into the load-bearing structure itself. The $73.6 million poured volume on V4's first day isn't due to trading volume, but the speed of concrete setting.
Traditional launchpads bundle scaffolding, with issuers paying a 1% "entry fee" while traders rub slippage on the floor. pools.trade's approach is to throw issuers, market makers, and traders all into the same foundation—LP fees automatically backfill liquidity, like backfilling cement during construction, with piles driving deeper and deeper. Hayden Adams said the cumulative $150 million is a professional translation behind this figure: every transaction increases the rebar density of the pool, not the subcontractors take profits.
The voices of opponents are harsh—"0.25% will squeeze creators' profits." This is outsiders looking at the construction drawings. They only focus on the numbers on the rate column, not the structural logic in the drawings: low prices are not price hikes, but rather pre-measured liquidity weight and land carrying limits. When issuers no longer gasp for "plate mounting fees," truly high-quality building complexes can rise from barren ground. Rival launchpads are like old construction sites still using precast slabs, while here they are already doing foundation pit support and static pressure piles.
UNI's new blueprint is a structural tear from the "transaction layer" to the "issuance layer." UNI used to be a giant trading mall, but now it's starting to design its own load-bearing systems. The V4 pool is still being poured late at night—this sound is honester than any white paper's wording #uniswaplaunchpadbetMorning Analysis: $BTC and $ETH stood still for two whole days, $SPCX staged a solo "insertion script" in the early hours
Let's look at the numbers first.
$BTC current price is 65,023. The 24-hour high is 65,173, and the low is 64,791. 382 points. In normal volatility, this isn't even enough to fill a 5-minute candlestick. But that's a full 24-hour amplitude. $ETH is even more extreme: opened at 1921, closed at 1921, high at 1926, low at 1911—a $15 corridor. From early Saturday to early Sunday, the BTC and ETH charts overlapped to form two nearly overlapping horizontal lines. The weekend's boredom peaked perfectly.
Then, at 3:30 a.m., the $SPCX exploded.
After 1 a.m., the SPCX was still quietly lying around 137. From 2 to 3 a.m., it became a bit more active, slowly climbing between 136 and 138. At 3:30, it plunged from 137.30 to 139.77—normally, that's not much, but it was early Sunday morning, when the whole market was asleep, and a single push pushed through nearly two points. Then the excitement came next: at 3:45, it started to fall from 139.77, then dropped to 135.10, and at 4.45, the lowest was 134.74. From 139.77 to 134.74, it evaporated 3.6% in just over an hour. Now it climbs back to 135.27, quietly catching its breath in the late morning session.
This isn't the market trading any new news. SPCX had no announcements over the weekend, no tweets from Musk, no analyst ratings. It was just that someone drew a needle in the thin early morning session—first pushing up to trigger a long chase, then reversing and smashing down, harvesting during the period with the thinnest liquidity and biggest slippage. The weekend early morning coin scenario was played, and SPCX, as a large-cap stock, also played out the scene.
BNB wasn't as exhausted. It stayed between 601 and 604 in the early morning, and the $3 range lay for six hours. With deep market depth and good liquidity, no one could draw the same needle on BNB in the early hours on weekends. This is a real case of liquidity differences determining price action—after SPCX was unlocked, the chips hadn't fully settled yet, so the market was much shallower than BNB's, and a single medium-sized order could create direction.
Back to BTC and ETH. This extreme weekend sideways movement itself doesn't indicate any direction, but it does reflect the market's state: neither bulls nor bears have enough reason to act when liquidity is exhausted. The Fear and Greed Index is still stuck at 29, extremely panicked but stable; funding rates are almost zero, and leverage is completely cleared; ETF capital flows turned to a net inflow of $211.5 million on Friday. No one panics, and no one is greedy. Just wait—wait for Monday opening, Wednesday CPI, wait for Jackson Hole at the end of the month.
There are no new structural changes. BTC's low rose from 62,800 to 64,111 and then to 64,485, and this ladder has not broken. The 65,000 wall was broken on Friday and still hasn't been firmly bought, but it has been grinding in the small range between 64,800 and 65,200 for two days. The longer the weekend drags on, the stronger the direction will be as soon as Monday opens. If the Asian session pushes above 65,200, the next target is 65,358. If the Asian session breaks through 64,800, then 64,485 will be the defensive line.
Only a few hours left of the weekend. Boring sideways trading isn't a bad thing—a quiet weekend is a hundred times better than a sinister one.
#非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in rate hikes
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future?
#白宫再次推动罢免美联储理事丽莎 Cook Currently, the deviation between $SPX and the long-term moving average is at an extremely high in history, and the price structure shows a sharp conflict between a strong bullish trend and the risk of moving average reversion.
At the monthly moving average, the deviation from the $SPX 50-month moving average is approaching the December 1999 peak, the deviation from the 100-month moving average is close to the September 2000 peak, and the distance from the 200-month moving average is also the largest since October 2000.
These extreme deviation data indicate that the current uptrend has entered the boundary zone of long-term historical volatility, with price structure facing strong moving average regression pressure.
Under the upward scenario, if the index digests selling at high levels and stays above key support, the market will consolidate the deviation with sideways consolidation, moving upward from moving averages to complete the recovery.
Under the downward scenario, once the high-level support is breached, the index will trigger a moving average reversal correction, with prices quickly seeking support toward the 50-month or 100-month moving averages, converging away from the extreme range.
The failure point in assessing moving average regression risk lies in the index continuing to consolidate narrowly at high levels, waiting for long-term moving averages to follow without breaking key structural points.
In the next 7 days, focus should be paid to the effectiveness of $SPX support levels and whether price divergence shows signs of active convergence.
#非农意外转负, CPI becomes key to rate hikes, #标普收盘再创新高. Expectations for 8,000 points are heating up📊 $ETH Contract Liquidation Express (August 10)
According to liquidation data, the short-cycle market has almost come to a standstill, but medium- and long-term bears are being frantically rubbed against by the bulls...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour $3.84 $0 $3.84
4 hours: $102,100, $73,700, $28,400
12 hours: $1.7195 million, $331,100, $1.3884 million
24 hours: $3.1344 million, $496,500, $2.6379 million
From $ETH liquidation data, within 1 hour, short liquidations crushed the bulls, monopolizing all the shorts. The short squeeze started with a very small amount (only $3.84); the 4-hour direction suddenly reversed, with long liquidations crushing the bears, 2.6 times the shorts, leading to a full-scale long sell-off; the 12-hour direction reversed again, with short liquidations crushing the longs, with shorts at 4.2 times the bulls, with short squeezes running through the short-to-medium cycle; the 24-hour bear advantage further expanded to about 5.3 times. Dog Maker completed a triple squeeze of short squeeze → long squeeze and → short squeeze on ETH, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $3.13 million. The pace is extremely chaotic; wherever you chase, you get cut off. Everyone control their positions to avoid being recovered and cut off.
🔥 Market Indicators | August 10
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is on three different battlefields, simultaneously playing out the harsh pricing of "expectation gaps."
📉 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turn negative: The scales of rate hikes tip toward CPI
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far from the expected increase of 50,000 to 140,000. However, the unemployment rate fell from 4.17% to 4.09%, the lowest since June 2025.
A contradictory report of "reduced employment, falling unemployment rate" has made the outlook for a rate hike in September even more uncertain. The New Federal Reserve Press Agency bluntly stated: "This is a chaotic report." CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen from 57% to 44%. The real deciding factor is not employment, but the July CPI released on August 12.
💾 Deposit stocks fall after earnings reports: The more explosive the earnings, the harder the drop
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital revenue was $3.747 billion, up 44% year-on-year. However, SanDisk's post-market share once plunged more than 11%, and Western Digital plunged over 18%.
The main culprit behind the sharp drop is insufficiently optimistic guidance—SanDisk's median revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, below market expectations. Against the backdrop of a yearly increase of over 460%, the market has fully priced in the positive news, and the otherwise dull outlook has been interpreted as a negative signal.
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? Morgan Stanley believes the most dramatic adjustment is nearing its end; But Bernstein pointed out that memory chips are gradually becoming a cost burden for both AI and non-AI applications. The long-term logic of the supercycle remains unbroken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified infinitely.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, increasing tradable shares from 639 million to 1.55 billion shares. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
But instead of falling, the stock price rose—up 6% on the day of lock-up, about 16% the next day, with a cumulative gain of about 23% over two days. After the earnings report, the 14% plunge signaled early release of unlocking pressure; Bears were forced to cover and form buying interest. But the alarm remained—over 250 million shares were still shorted.
💎 Summary
The chaotic signals from the nonfarm payrolls tipped the scales toward the September rate hike in favor of CPI; SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have outpaced fundamentals; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" with a surge on the day of the lock-up. In the first week of August, all three markets operated simultaneously in ways beyond expectations—the old logic was collapsing, new pricing power was forming, and it punished all the "imperfect" answers. #非农意外转负, CPI became the key to rate hikes
#存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? The same script, this is the fourth time!
$ETH Stayed around 1900 for over a week, but each time it bounced back to 1920-1930. The high kept dropping, repeatedly grinding within the 1840 to 1950 range
The first three times, each time it dropped
What's different this time?
First, EIP-8363 is causing trouble. A group of core developers want to cut staking yields, from 2.6% to 1.2%. The community explodes, and DeFi giants collectively criticize. Staking rates have reached 34.4%, with 41.5 million ETH locked up. With yields cut, who would want to lock them up?
Second, ETH/BTC is falling. The exchange rate is near 0.0298, yet it hasn't returned to 0.03. ETH is the only mainstream coin to decline this week
Third, macroeconomics haven't helped either. Three out of nine Fed members advocate for rate hikes. The CPI on August 12-13 is the next big test, and the stickiness of inflation remains
ETFs are buying, but prices aren't rising—it means someone is selling off. This week, ETH ETFs saw a net inflow of $243 million, and BlackRock has been buying for four consecutive days. Institutions are buying, selling is selling, and the price staying is itself a signal
The same pattern appears for the fourth time, and the structure remains unchanged
Trade, keep an eye on 1850. If it breaks, open up space below, first watch 1800, then 1700. Don't act before it breaks
#非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in rate hikes
#存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable? $BTC $SNDK
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? Brothers and sisters, now is good! I plan to write an original article on in-depth analysis and prediction of BTC every Wednesday and weekend. I hope you like 😍 it. This week, the BTC market saw three consecutive positive developments: a surprise nonfarm payroll, ETFs attracting $750 million, and US stocks hitting a record high. However, BTC's performance has been disappointing, with prices only rising slightly, currently hovering around 65,000, neither rising nor falling. Why is that? What you see is good news, but what I see is that volume is not keeping up, 65K has rejected prices four times, and the bulls have never been able to hold their ground. This is not because the market "doesn't want to rise," but because "it can't be pushed for now." In this article, I will review the real state of this week's market: which variables are genuine positive news, which signals need to be watched for, and the three most likely paths after next week's CPI data is released. By the time you finish reading the content, you should have a clear judgment about the direction for next week. 1. Market Review This Week: Three Major Positive Factors Fail to Drive Prices Up? There are three main reasons why prices have not risen: Reason one: ETF buying is concentrated through institutional channels, but US retail investors have not followed suit. U.S. institutions are buying through ETF channels, but relative buying interest in the Coinbase spot market remains weak. The Coinbase Premium Index has been negative for 80 consecutive days, indicating that institutional funds mainly flow into ETF products rather than directly buying up shares in the Coinbase spot market. Reason 2: Hard resistance above 65K. This week, the price tested 65K multiple times and was rejected three times. Since the end of July, 65K has already been reachedBuy the right coin, hold it for a month, and it stays unmoved—$ADA week but it rose nearly 20%. This is the current market: $BTC hovers around $64k, still 48% below the previous high, but funds haven't stalled, instead flowing extremely selectively. Small meme coins $PONS, $WKC, $HEI are heating up, $ZEC (+12%/week) and $XMR quietly surging outside the spotlight; Meanwhile, the $ONDO and RWA sectors fell 10% for the week, while $XRP, $SUI, and $PEPE are stuck in a tug-of-war.
One interpretation: smart money is rotating, and altcoins with independent narratives can still make big profits. Another view: $ZEC. The $ADA pulse is just a short-term shift under low liquidity—as long as $BTC doesn't break previous highs, it's hard for altcoins to sustain their rally.
My view: Don't just focus on price, pay attention to where funds are going. Money is flowing into defensive sectors—privacy coins and gold token $XAUT rose 7% for the week. This is risk-off sentiment, not an altseason. The altseason isn't over yet, but it's already fragmented into sector rotation. Those who choose the right track win, while those who hold onto 'good coins' and wait for a broad rally may wait a long time.
If you could only hold one coin at the end of the month, which one would you bet on? 🐐
#BTC #加密市场情绪
#Crypto$LIGHT Today +20%, but funding rate +0.02231%... Bulls are paying protection fees! 💸
The daily chart has broken through 100% of the gain, showing an unbeatable trend; But the 15-minute chart shows a long upper shadow + increased volume stagnation, so the big players may be selling off! 🪵
VWAP 0.1788 is the lifeline; hold it for long, break below and go short.
My choice: light position to short 0.1825, stop loss 0.1845, target 0.1780 — not greedy, just focus on certainty!
Do you dare to go long at a high level? Let's talk 👇 in the comments 📊 $DOGE合约爆仓速递（8月10日）
根据爆仓数据，短周期多头被按在地上疯狂摩擦，但中长周期空头直接血崩了。。。
时间 总爆仓 多单爆仓 空单爆仓
1小时 $2.12 $2.12 $0
4小时 $816.60 $797.38 $19.23
12小时 $38.08万 $4.65万 $33.43万
24小时 $46.43万 $6.37万 $40.06万
从$DOGE爆仓数据看，1小时和4小时多头爆仓碾压空头，1小时多头垄断全部，4小时多头是空头的41倍，杀多行情在短周期以猛烈力度展开；12小时方向骤然逆转，空头爆仓碾压多头，空头是多头的7.2倍，逼空全面爆发；24小时空头优势进一步扩大，比例约6.28倍，狗庄在DOGE上完成了从杀多到逼空的凶狠转身——短周期做多的被定向爆破，中长周期做空的被一锅端，累计爆仓突破46万美元。空头血流成河，逼空行情势如破竹。大家控制好仓位，别被来回收割。
🔥 市场风向标 | 8月10日
今日三条热点，指向同一主题：市场正在三个不同的战场上，同时演绎"预期差"的残酷定价。
📉 非农意外转负：加息的天平倒向CPI
美国7月非农就业人数意外减少2.3万人，大幅偏离预期的增加5万-14万人。但失业率从4.17%降至4.09%，创2025年6月以来新低。
一份"就业减少、失业率下降"的矛盾报告，让9月加息前景更加扑朔迷离。"新美联储通讯社"直言："这是一份混乱的报告。"CME数据显示，9月加息概率已从57%回落至44%。真正的决定因素不是就业，而是8月12日公布的7月CPI。
💾 存储股财报后下跌：业绩越炸，跌得越狠
闪迪Q4营收89.65亿美元，同比暴增372%；西部数据营收37.47亿美元，同比增44%。然而，闪迪盘后一度大跌逾11%，西部数据大跌超18%。
暴跌的元凶是指引不够乐观——闪迪下季营收指引中值105.5亿美元，低于市场预期。在年内涨幅超460%的背景下，市场已将利好充分计价，平淡的未来指引被解读为负面信号。
AI内存牛市还稳吗？大摩认为最剧烈的调整已接近尾声；但伯恩斯坦指出，存储芯片正逐渐成为AI与非AI应用的成本负担。超级周期的长期逻辑未破，但估值已跑在基本面之前，任何瑕疵都会被无限放大。
🚀 SpaceX解禁后反涨：利空出尽的经典剧本
8月6日，SpaceX首批9.115亿股限售股解禁，可交易股份从6.39亿股增至15.5亿股。此前市场普遍预期将触发抛售潮。
结果股价不跌反涨——解禁当日涨6%，次日再涨约16%，两日累计涨幅约23%。财报后暴跌14%已提前释放解禁压力；空头被迫回补形成买盘。但警报未解除——仍有超2.5亿股被做空。
💎 总结
非农的混乱信号让9月加息的天平倒向CPI；闪迪用372%的增长换来暴跌，证明存储股估值已跑在基本面之前；SpaceX用解禁日的暴涨，演绎了"利空出尽"的经典剧本。8月第一周，三个市场同时以超出预期的方式运行——旧逻辑在崩塌，新定价权在形成，而它惩罚所有"不够完美"的答案。#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键
#存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ Nansen just patted his chest: BTC will never break 60,000. My first reaction wasn't to buy, but to delete the bottom-fishing order—which of the "ironclad theories" in history isn't used to bury people?
This week's regulatory week: CLARITY breaks through in September, OFAC sanctions two Iranian firms, Trump media cuts Crypto.com cooperation. News moves, market remains unchanged.
BTC 24H was only +0.13% at 65,000, with volume down another 81.5%, but ETFs just bought the strongest weekly in April at $1B. Qian Jintu doesn't rise—institutions are buying in secret, retail investors playing dead.
Big players calling for positions are just contrarian indicators. No one really calls for the bottom; most of what is called out is just relays. BTC isn't the bottom right now, it's a vacuum—no one sells, no one buys, just sitting here and waiting.
Use a contrarian ruler when trading signals: don't rush to buy when the price is at the bottom, don't rush to cut when it's going to crash. Analysts acting as contrarians is more reliable than being the Bible.
My MMT long is -0.05% (addicted to chasing hot coins), XSNDK short is -0.46% (short is also shallow). Tossing and turning in sideways trading = working for the exchange, two trades are proof.
Nansen: Do you dare to accept this flag? If you dare, say in the comments why you believe it; if not, share what you're afraid of—brothers.
Crypto assets carry high risk. This article does not constitute investment advice and reflects purely personal opinions.
$BTC $MMT #OKX星球 #大佬喊单 #监管动态$LAB As I mentioned before, the big lottery warehouse dropped 99%, so the real big exam may not be here yet
LAB may be one of the most outrageous altcoins recently.
In June, it surged to around $27, then crashed to just a few cents, essentially wiping out all the previous gains.
Many people, seeing a 99% drop, react first with the following:
Has it already dropped to its limit?
But I think LAB's biggest problem right now isn't the price, but the chips.
Currently, LAB's circulating supply is only about 312 million, while on August 14, the market expects about 282 million tokens to be unlocked.
What does that mean?
The amount unlocked at once is close to the entire circulating market today.
What's more troublesome is that LAB had previously been questioned by ZachXBT for serious issues of token concentration and insider control. During the July crash, there were also cases of wallets linked to the team transferring funds and selling LAB in large quantities.
So LAB is now a very typical high-risk game:
Down 99% ≠ cheap.
What truly determines whether it can survive is who will take over after these new chips are released.
Of course, LAB is not entirely without logic behind its rebound.
The project team had previously conducted buybacks, and recently has started to talk about AI agents and trading terminals. If the huge selling pressure expected by the market does not occur after unlocking in August, a strong expectation gap may actually form.
So now I watch LAB focusing on one particular time:
$OKB
August 14 $BICO
Only by holding out to unlock can one be qualified to talk about an oversold rebound.
If you can't hold on, 99% can still drop another 90% after that.
$ETH $BEAT $LAB 我之前说的大彩票仓跌了99%，真正的大考可能还没来
LAB可能是最近最离谱的山寨币之一。
6月最高冲到27美元附近，随后一路崩到几毛钱，基本把前面的涨幅全部吐了回去。
很多人看到跌了99%，第一反应是：
是不是已经跌无可跌了？
但我觉得LAB现在最大的问题恰恰不是价格，而是筹码。
目前LAB流通量大约只有3.12亿枚，而8月14日市场预计还有约2.82亿枚代币迎来解锁。
什么概念？
一次解锁的数量，接近现在整个流通盘。
更麻烦的是，LAB此前已经被ZachXBT质疑存在严重的筹码集中和内部人控制问题。7月暴跌期间，也出现了与团队存在资金联系的钱包大量转移、出售LAB的情况。
所以LAB现在其实是一个非常典型的高风险博弈：
跌99% ≠ 便宜。
真正决定它能不能活过来的，是这批新增筹码出来以后，到底是谁接盘。
当然，LAB也不是完全没有反弹逻辑。
项目方此前做过回购，最近又开始继续讲AI Agent和交易终端的故事。如果8月解锁之后没有出现市场预期中的巨大抛压，反而可能形成一次很强的预期差。
所以我现在看LAB只盯一个时间：
8月14日。
扛住解锁，才有资格谈超跌反弹。
扛不住，99%后面一样可以再跌90%。
$ETH $BEAT $OKB $BICO $LAB As I mentioned before, the big lottery warehouse dropped 99%, so the real big exam may not be here yet
LAB may be one of the most outrageous altcoins recently.
In June, it surged to around $27, then crashed to just a few cents, essentially wiping out all the previous gains.
Many people, seeing a 99% drop, react first with the following:
Has it already dropped to its limit?
But I think LAB's biggest problem right now isn't the price, but the chips.
Currently, LAB's circulating supply is only about 312 million, while on August 14, the market expects about 282 million tokens to be unlocked.
What does that mean?
The amount unlocked at once is close to the entire circulating market today.
What's more troublesome is that LAB had previously been questioned by ZachXBT for serious issues of token concentration and insider control. During the July crash, there were also cases of wallets linked to the team transferring funds and selling LAB in large quantities.
So LAB is now a very typical high-risk game:
Down 99% ≠ cheap.
What truly determines whether it can survive is who will take over after these new chips are released.
Of course, LAB is not entirely without logic behind its rebound.
The project team had previously conducted buybacks, and recently has started to talk about AI agents and trading terminals. If the huge selling pressure expected by the market does not occur after unlocking in August, a strong expectation gap may actually form.
So now I watch LAB focusing on one particular time:
August 14.
Only by holding out to unlock can one be qualified to talk about an oversold rebound.
If you can't hold on, 99% can still drop another 90% after that.
$ETH $BEAT 美股主要指数在科技股拉升下冲向历史高位，但下周即将发布的通胀数据，正在让高贝塔阵营的扩张节奏放慢脚步。
纳指单周超过 5% 的涨幅将 $SOXL 等半导体杠杆品种推高，标普与道指创出新高，交易盘面上充斥着对科技权重股的追逐。
资金在事件落地前向高弹性板块集中，风险偏好的集中释放暂时盖过了对宏观政策收紧的警惕。
这种由估值修复驱动的拉升，与下周通胀压力的不确定性形成拉锯，趋势能否延续仍待确认。
若下周通胀数据低于预期，风险偏好将进一步扩散并打开高贝塔品种的上行空间，而主线资金离场或伴随成交量大幅萎缩则意味着反弹失效。
若通胀数据意外升温触发美联储收紧政策的担忧，杠杆仓位可能面临快速去杠杆与回吐压力，但防御性资金的接盘力度若超预期将阻断下行节奏。
宏观通胀事件成为当前市场脆弱平衡的核心变量，任何超出计价范围的数据波动都会直接证伪现阶段的无忧上涨逻辑。
未来七天最值得观察的变量，是最新通胀数据落地后杠杆仓位与高贝塔板块的实际承接意愿。
#CLARITY表决推迟至9月，监管窗口后移 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？📊 $RE Contract Liquidation Express (August 10)
According to liquidation data, short-term bulls are being pinned down and rubbed wildly, but long-term bears have just collapsed...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour: $32,000 $31,800 $200.73
4 hours $39,700 $37,900 $1,881.42
12 hours: $236,100 $137,300 $98,800
24 hours: $334,400, $158,300, $176,100
From $RE liquidation data, 1-hour and 4-hour long liquidations crushed shorts; 1-hour bulls were 158 times shorts, 4-hour ratios about 20, and long selling rally unfolded with nuclear explosion-level intensity in the short cycle; 12-hour direction reversal, short liquidations overtook bulls, shorts at 1.39 times bulls, short squeezes started; 24-hour short advantage further expanded to about 1.11 times, with Dog Farm making a fierce turnaround from long selling to short squeezes on RE — short-term long sellers targeted blowdowns, medium- to long-term short sellers were wiped out in one go, cumulative liquidations exceeded $330,000. Everyone control their positions to avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Indicators | August 10
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is on three different battlefields, simultaneously playing out the harsh pricing of "expectation gaps."
📉 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turn negative: The scales of rate hikes tip toward CPI
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far from the expected increase of 50,000 to 140,000. However, the unemployment rate fell from 4.17% to 4.09%, the lowest since June 2025.
A contradictory report of "reduced employment, falling unemployment rate" has made the outlook for a rate hike in September even more uncertain. The New Federal Reserve Press Agency bluntly stated: "This is a chaotic report." CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen from 57% to 44%. The real deciding factor is not employment, but the July CPI released on August 12.
💾 Deposit stocks fall after earnings reports: The more explosive the earnings, the harder the drop
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital revenue was $3.747 billion, up 44% year-on-year. However, SanDisk's post-market share once plunged more than 11%, and Western Digital plunged over 18%.
The main culprit behind the sharp drop is insufficiently optimistic guidance—SanDisk's median revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, below market expectations. Against the backdrop of a yearly increase of over 460%, the market has fully priced in the positive news, and the otherwise dull outlook has been interpreted as a negative signal.
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? Morgan Stanley believes the most dramatic adjustment is nearing its end; But Bernstein pointed out that memory chips are gradually becoming a cost burden for both AI and non-AI applications. The long-term logic of the supercycle remains unbroken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified infinitely.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, increasing tradable shares from 639 million to 1.55 billion shares. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
But instead of falling, the stock price rose—up 6% on the day of lock-up, about 16% the next day, with a cumulative gain of about 23% over two days. After the earnings report, the 14% plunge signaled early release of unlocking pressure; Bears were forced to cover and form buying interest. But the alarm remained—over 250 million shares were still shorted.
💎 Summary
The chaotic signals from the nonfarm payrolls tipped the scales toward the September rate hike in favor of CPI; SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have outpaced fundamentals; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" with a surge on the day of the lock-up. In the first week of August, all three markets operated simultaneously in ways beyond expectations—the old logic was collapsing, new pricing power was forming, and it punished all the "imperfect" answers. #非农意外转负, CPI became the key to rate hikes
#存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? $BTC 65012, again ran right into the threshold of 65k, the scenario was never changed.
64500 has passed, and even stood at this level, but what next? After the breakout, the spot market is still in a net outflow for three hours, none of the twelve columns are in the black - short money is still running.
On the news, on the contrary, everything screams about good events: an influx into ETFs, additional purchases from institutions, and in terms of sentiment, the rating is already 7.4 - no matter who says, everything is only happier.
But as for the board itself, the picture is different: active buying does not even reach 40%, and on the short horizon everything is pressing down. Positions, however, are accumulating: long positions are already 60% and continue to buy, but they are increasing — and there is not enough volume for redemption.
#OKXTraderVoices #NewHereStartHere 📊 $OKB Contract Liquidation Express (August 10)
According to liquidation data, this wave of short positions was frantically crushed by the Dog Traders...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour $109.52 $109.52 $0
4 hours $1,351.99 $109.52 $1,242.47
12 hours $4,682.31 $109.52 $4,572.78
24 hours: $48,000 $635.21 $47,400
From $OKB liquidation data, within 1 hour, long liquidations crushed short positions, with zero short positions, and the short selling started with a very small amount; Within 4 hours, the direction reversed sharply, with short liquidations crushing bulls, with shorts being 11.3 times longer than bulls, leading to a comprehensive short squeeze; the 12-hour short advantage further expanded to about 41.7 times, with short squeezes running through the short to medium cycle; 24-hour short liquidations surged to $47,400, 74.6 times the short squeeze. On OKB, Dog Zhuang made a fierce turnaround from selling long to short squeezing—short-term long sellers were targeted and destroyed, medium- and long-cycle short sellers were wiped out at once, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $48,000. As the platform token of exchanges, OKB's liquidation volume increased significantly today, with shorts bleeding like rivers and short squeezes unstoppable. Everyone should control their positions carefully to avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Indicators | August 10
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is on three different battlefields, simultaneously playing out the harsh pricing of "expectation gaps."
📉 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turn negative: The scales of rate hikes tip toward CPI
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far from the expected increase of 50,000 to 140,000. However, the unemployment rate fell from 4.17% to 4.09%, the lowest since June 2025.
A contradictory report of "reduced employment, falling unemployment rate" has made the outlook for a rate hike in September even more uncertain. The New Federal Reserve Press Agency bluntly stated: "This is a chaotic report." CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen from 57% to 44%. The real deciding factor is not employment, but the July CPI released on August 12.
💾 Deposit stocks fall after earnings reports: The more explosive the earnings, the harder the drop
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital revenue was $3.747 billion, up 44% year-on-year. However, SanDisk's post-market share once plunged more than 11%, and Western Digital plunged over 18%.
The main culprit behind the sharp drop is insufficiently optimistic guidance—SanDisk's median revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, below market expectations. Against the backdrop of a yearly increase of over 460%, the market has fully priced in the positive news, and the otherwise dull outlook has been interpreted as a negative signal.
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? Morgan Stanley believes the most dramatic adjustment is nearing its end; But Bernstein pointed out that memory chips are gradually becoming a cost burden for both AI and non-AI applications. The long-term logic of the supercycle remains unbroken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified infinitely.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, increasing tradable shares from 639 million to 1.55 billion shares. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
But instead of falling, the stock price rose—up 6% on the day of lock-up, about 16% the next day, with a cumulative gain of about 23% over two days. After the earnings report, the 14% plunge signaled early release of unlocking pressure; Bears were forced to cover and form buying interest. But the alarm remained—over 250 million shares were still shorted.
💎 Summary
The chaotic signals from the nonfarm payrolls tipped the scales toward the September rate hike in favor of CPI; SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have outpaced fundamentals; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" with a surge on the day of the lock-up. In the first week of August, all three markets operated simultaneously in ways beyond expectations—the old logic was collapsing, new pricing power was forming, and it punished all the "imperfect" answers. #非农意外转负, CPI became the key to rate hikes
#存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? $LAB As I mentioned before, the big lottery warehouse dropped 99%, so the real big exam may not be here yet
LAB may be one of the most outrageous altcoins recently.
In June, it surged to around $27, then crashed to just a few cents, essentially wiping out all the previous gains.
Many people, seeing a 99% drop, react first with the following:
Has it already dropped to its limit?
But I think LAB's biggest problem right now isn't the price, but the chips.
Currently, LAB's circulating supply is only about 312 million, while on August 14, the market expects about 282 million tokens to be unlocked.
What does that mean?
The amount unlocked at once is close to the entire circulating market today.
What's more troublesome is that LAB had previously been questioned by ZachXBT for serious issues of token concentration and insider control. During the July crash, there were also cases of wallets linked to the team transferring funds and selling LAB in large quantities.
So LAB is now a very typical high-risk game:
Down 99% ≠ cheap.
What truly determines whether it can survive is who will take over after these new chips are released.
Of course, LAB is not entirely without logic behind its rebound.
The project team had previously conducted buybacks, and recently has started to talk about AI agents and trading terminals. If the huge selling pressure expected by the market does not occur after unlocking in August, a strong expectation gap may actually form.
So now I watch LAB focusing on one particular time:
August 14.
Only by holding out to unlock can one be qualified to talk about an oversold rebound.
If you can't hold on, 99% can still drop another 90% after that.黄金这波一周大涨7%，背后是双重核心逻辑共振，远不止降息预期这么简单。
第一个直接推手是美国就业市场直接失速。美国劳工部8月7日公布数据，7月非农就业环比减少2.3万人，市场此前预期是新增8万人，预期差高达10.3万，更关键的是5月、6月非农数据合计下修10.3万，连续三个月就业动能衰减，地方政府教育岗砍5万、零售业减1.9万、金融业裁1.4万，这早已不是温和降温，是实打实的就业失速。
数据落地后美元指数盘中跌至99.40，创近两个月新低，CME数据显示9月加息概率直接从55%骤降到40%，加息预期降温带动美元走弱，直接给黄金打开了上涨空间。
但仅靠降息预期根本撑不起一周7%的涨幅，大河财立方点破了核心本质：市场早已不再单纯交易利率，而是在交易“信任”。全球央行正疯狂囤金，亚洲最大黄金ETF华安连续16日净流入超60亿元，全球黄金ETF持仓自7月20日以来累计增加24吨，各国央行大手笔增持黄金，根本不是在赌短期降息，而是在押注全球法币信用体系的裂缝持续扩大，这种长期战略性买盘，才是本轮黄金暴涨最坚实的底层支撑。#黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？ $BTC 凌晨三点，我盯着SPCX的分时线，一根阳线直接捅破了我设的止损线，然后继续往上走。那种感觉，怎么说呢，像看着自己预判的剧本上演，但座位却被别人占了。 为什么我明明猜到了短挤压，却还是没赚到这笔钱？ 昨晚SPCX那波拉升确实够猛，16%的涨幅配上放量，典型的空头回补行情。我在110下方平掉了空单，反手挂买单想搭个顺风车，结果价格跑得太快，单子根本没成交。这种踏空感比亏钱还难受，因为你知道方向是对的，只是节奏没踩上。 但冷静下来看，这轮反弹的底层逻辑其实挺清晰的。发行价135大概率会被收复，开盘价150附近存在惯性冲高的可能，而那个175的解锁条件价已经失效了，基本可以不用再惦记。真正值得琢磨的是，为什么价格在关键位置附近反复摩擦，却始终不肯痛快地突破或下跌。 - 盘面上，大资金明显在控制节奏，既不让你舒服地追多，也不让你轻松地抄底 - 这种横盘震荡对持仓者来说其实是最消耗耐心的，时间拖得越久，换手越充分，后期的方向选择就越剧烈 - 我自己在SPCX上赚过10万美金，但在存储板块亏了5万，那个板块给我的感觉就是典型的"出货型震荡"——主力用时间换空间，慢慢派发 从资金偏好的角度看，这波反弹📊 $XAUT Contract Liquidation Express (August 10)
According to liquidation data, this wave of short positions was frantically crushed by the Dog Traders...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour $173.93 $0 $173.93
4 hours $173.93 $0 $173.93
12 hours $492.90 $0 $492.90
24 hours: $631.67 $95.05 $536.62
From $XAUT liquidation data, shorts crushed the bulls in 1-hour, 4-hour, and 12-hour periods, monopolizing all the shorts. The short squeeze was purely one-sided through the short and medium term, with short liquidation rising from $173.93 to $492.90; 24-hour shorts still held an absolute advantage, but bulls began to resist ($95.05), with shorts outnumbering bulls 5.6 times. Dog Farm completed full-cycle suppression of shorts on XAUT — short, medium, and long-term shorts were targeted and destroyed in all directions, while bulls' resistance was just a drop in the bucket, with cumulative liquidations breaking $600. As a gold stablecoin, XAUT has very small liquidations but strong directional consistency, making it a textbook one-sided short squeeze. Everyone should control their positions to avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Indicators | August 10
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is on three different battlefields, simultaneously playing out the harsh pricing of "expectation gaps."
📉 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turn negative: The scales of rate hikes tip toward CPI
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far from the expected increase of 50,000 to 140,000. However, the unemployment rate fell from 4.17% to 4.09%, the lowest since June 2025.
A contradictory report of "reduced employment, falling unemployment rate" has made the outlook for a rate hike in September even more uncertain. The New Federal Reserve Press Agency bluntly stated: "This is a chaotic report." CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen from 57% to 44%. The real deciding factor is not employment, but the July CPI released on August 12.
💾 Deposit stocks fall after earnings reports: The more explosive the earnings, the harder the drop
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital revenue was $3.747 billion, up 44% year-on-year. However, SanDisk's post-market share once plunged more than 11%, and Western Digital plunged over 18%.
The main culprit behind the sharp drop is insufficiently optimistic guidance—SanDisk's median revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, below market expectations. Against the backdrop of a yearly increase of over 460%, the market has fully priced in the positive news, and the otherwise dull outlook has been interpreted as a negative signal.
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? Morgan Stanley believes the most dramatic adjustment is nearing its end; But Bernstein pointed out that memory chips are gradually becoming a cost burden for both AI and non-AI applications. The long-term logic of the supercycle remains unbroken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified infinitely.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, increasing tradable shares from 639 million to 1.55 billion shares. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
But instead of falling, the stock price rose—up 6% on the day of lock-up, about 16% the next day, with a cumulative gain of about 23% over two days. After the earnings report, the 14% plunge signaled early release of unlocking pressure; Bears were forced to cover and form buying interest. But the alarm remained—over 250 million shares were still shorted.
💎 Summary
The chaotic signals from the nonfarm payrolls tipped the scales toward the September rate hike in favor of CPI; SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have outpaced fundamentals; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" with a surge on the day of the lock-up. In the first week of August, all three markets operated simultaneously in ways beyond expectations—the old logic was collapsing, new pricing power was forming, and it punished all the "imperfect" answers. #非农意外转负, CPI became the key to rate hikes
#存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? [2026-08-09 Morning Report] $SPCX
Short-term Trend (August–December 2026)
Core Tone: High volatility, repeated battles over unlocks, with difficulty for a strong one-sided rally.
1. Mid to late August
After the initial unlock bearish impact lands, a round of short covering rebound occurs.
But as the new 7% unlock window approaches on August 20, the rebound is likely to face profit-taking selling.
The range will most likely oscillate back and forth, with resistance at $135–150 (strong resistance near the issue price) and support at $95–105.
- Bullish triggers: Starship test flight news, AI computing power orders, Nasdaq strength, which will drive a short-term rebound.
- Bearish triggers: Concentrated selling by old shareholders, US stock market correction, likely to retest the $100 level again.
2. September–October
Multiple small unlock batches continue, and the market gradually digests the unlock sentiment.
The watershed is the Q3 earnings report.
✅ Q3 earnings beat expectations: Starlink profits stabilize, AI losses narrow, stock price has a chance to hold steady in the $140–160 range.
❌ Q3 earnings miss expectations: Capital expenditures continue to rise sharply, commercialization progress slow, combined with large unlocks after Q3 earnings, a significant correction will follow, targeting the $80–90 range.
3. November–December
December 8 marks the near completion of common shareholder unlocks.
If there is no major drop before, institutional year-end closing may still exert phased selling pressure.
If there has already been sufficient decline before, the unlock bearish impact is basically digested, laying the foundation for a consolidation bottom.
Short-term summary in one sentence: The main theme from August to December is oscillation, with the biggest watershed being the Q3 earnings report plus the large unlock window after Q3 earnings. #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 Buy the right coin, hold for a month, and the price feels like it's being nailed down; Meanwhile, $ADA rebounded nearly 20% in a week—that's the current market. $BTC still hovers around $64k, 48% from the previous high, but funds haven't stopped—they're just being extremely selective. 📉 Small-cap memes remain hot, with $PONS, $WKC, and $HEI constantly stirring; The privacy sector quietly broke through, rising 12% $ZEC week, with $XMR following suit. On the other hand, $ONDO and RWA concepts fell 10% for the week, while $XRP, $SUI, and $PEPE remain volatile. 🔍 Two interpretations: one says smart money rotates between sectors, and offenders with independent narratives can still win; Another view is that the fluctuations in $ZEC and $ADA are just short-term shifts under low liquidity—$BTC don't break previous highs, there won't be a real trend trend. In my view, the key isn't the price, but that funds are hiding in defensive assets: privacy coins and gold token $XAUT rose 7% for the week, which is a clear risk-off signal, not an altseason. Rather than saying the bull market is gone, it's more accurate to say it's been broken down into pulses launched in batches by industry—those who hit the right sector are profiting, while those holding onto 'good coins' and other broad gains can only watch the rotation slip by. If you could only choose one position this month, which direction would you bet on? #BTC #Altcoin
#Crypto📊 $NEAR Contract Liquidation Express (August 10)
According to liquidation data, short-cycle bears are being pinned down and rubbing wildly, but long-term bulls are starting to fight back...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour $6,443.82 $0 $6,443.82
4 hours $6,682.00 $238.18 $6,443.82
12 hours $36,600 $3,691.49 $32,900
24 hours: $62,700, $23,100, $39,600
From $NEAR liquidation data, 1-hour and 4-hour short liquidations crushed the bulls, monopolizing all the 1-hour short positions. The 4-hour short position was 27 times longer than the bulls, and short squeezes unfolded fiercely in the short cycle; The 12-hour short advantage persisted but narrowed sharply, dropping to 8.9 times, with marginal weakening momentum; 24-hour bull resistance surged, with long liquidations soaring from zero in 1 hour to $23,100, but bears still dominated by a 1.7x advantage. Dog Farm completed full-cycle suppression of shorts on NEAR—short, medium, and long-term shorts were targeted and destroyed in all directions. The bulls' only resistance strengthened significantly over the long term but was just a drop in the bucket, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $60,000. Short squeezes flowed like rivers, and short squeezes surged like a hot knife. Everyone control their positions to avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Indicators | August 10
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is on three different battlefields, simultaneously playing out the harsh pricing of "expectation gaps."
📉 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turn negative: The scales of rate hikes tip toward CPI
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far from the expected increase of 50,000 to 140,000. However, the unemployment rate fell from 4.17% to 4.09%, the lowest since June 2025.
A contradictory report of "reduced employment, falling unemployment rate" has made the outlook for a rate hike in September even more uncertain. The New Federal Reserve Press Agency bluntly stated: "This is a chaotic report." CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen from 57% to 44%. The real deciding factor is not employment, but the July CPI released on August 12.
💾 Deposit stocks fall after earnings reports: The more explosive the earnings, the harder the drop
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital revenue was $3.747 billion, up 44% year-on-year. However, SanDisk's post-market share once plunged more than 11%, and Western Digital plunged over 18%.
The main culprit behind the sharp drop is insufficiently optimistic guidance—SanDisk's median revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, below market expectations. Against the backdrop of a yearly increase of over 460%, the market has fully priced in the positive news, and the otherwise dull outlook has been interpreted as a negative signal.
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? Morgan Stanley believes the most dramatic adjustment is nearing its end; But Bernstein pointed out that memory chips are gradually becoming a cost burden for both AI and non-AI applications. The long-term logic of the supercycle remains unbroken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified infinitely.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, increasing tradable shares from 639 million to 1.55 billion shares. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
But instead of falling, the stock price rose—up 6% on the day of lock-up, about 16% the next day, with a cumulative gain of about 23% over two days. After the earnings report, the 14% plunge signaled early release of unlocking pressure; Bears were forced to cover and form buying interest. But the alarm remained—over 250 million shares were still shorted.
💎 Summary
The chaotic signals from the nonfarm payrolls tipped the scales toward the September rate hike in favor of CPI; SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have outpaced fundamentals; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" with a surge on the day of the lock-up. In the first week of August, all three markets operated simultaneously in ways beyond expectations—the old logic was collapsing, new pricing power was forming, and it punished all the "imperfect" answers. #非农意外转负, CPI became the key to rate hikes
#存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? The biggest change in this market is not that there are no opportunities, but that capital is no longer evenly shared
Currently, the total crypto market capitalization is about $2.3 trillion, with BTC still accounting for 56.6% and stablecoins about $303 billion. Funds are clearly concentrated in leading assets rather than spreading across altcoins.
More directly, US spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows for five consecutive days from August 3 to 7, totaling about $865 million.
So the current market is more like a three-tier market:
Core liquidity: BTC, ETH—suitable for trending holding;
High Beta rotation: SOL, SUI, SEI, HYPE, ONDO, etc.—only act when volume is high, exit when there is none;
Low-liquidity small-cap coins — lack sustained trading volume and fundamental catalysts; rebounds are more trading opportunities than value revaluation.
Take SOL as an example: currently, on-chain TVL is about $4.8 billion, and 24-hour DEX trading volume is still around $1.19 billion—this is true activity.
In the next phase, don't ask "which coin dropped enough," but ask: have funds, trading volume, and actual usage actually flowed in?
Sideways trading doesn't mean accumulating shares, and overselling doesn't mean it's cheap. Funds only reward assets with liquidity, narrative, and sustained liquidity. $BTC #非农意外转负, CPI is key to rate hikes 🌍 After-hours macros | Three forces collide
Cryptocurrencies are heading into the upcoming session as three macro forces compete for control:
Labor. Inflation. Energy.
🇺🇸 Employment: July payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23k, shifting attention toward a potentially softer U.S. economy.
📊 Inflation: The upcoming CPI report now carries more weight. If price pressures continue to ease, markets may increase bets on easier Fed policy.
🛢️ Energy: Hormuz remains a key variable. Any continued improvement in shipping conditions could ease oil-related inflationary pressures, while renewed turmoil could push energy prices higher again.
This is the essence of #PayrollsDropCPIFocus.
Poor jobs are not $BTC optimistic sloppy.
The rising scenario is:
Weak jobs → a lower consumer price index → lower yields → easier policy outlook → stronger liquidity → risks.
The dangerous scenario is:
Weak jobs → a flat CPI →for growth concerns + inflation pressures → tighter financial conditions → risk aversion.
Crypto's response will provide further evidence.
👑 It is still $BTC the overall standard.
🏛️ $ETH measures the turnover of organizations.
⚡ $SOL reflects a higher beta appetite.
🟡 $BNB and $XRP continue to participate in major companies.
For now, the market is waiting for confirmation.
The CPI may determine whether listing weak jobs will become a catalyst for liquidity—or a warning sign$BTC
#PayrollsDropCPIFocus
#AIMemoryStressTest
#Gold4300EasingOrHedge $ETH 📊 $BCH Contract Liquidation Express (August 10)
According to liquidation data, this wave of short positions was frantically crushed by the Dog Traders...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour $0 $0 $0 $0
4 hours $8,947.44 $0 $8,947.44
12 hours: $15,100, $50.63, $15,000
24 hours: $18,100 $5,891,600 $17,500
From $BCH liquidation data, zero liquidations in 1 hour, the market is completely silent; 4-hour short liquidations crush the bulls, monopolizing the entire market, with short squeeze blows fierce from the start; 12-hour short advantage persists but bulls start to resist, with a ratio of about 296 times, short squeezes running through the short to medium cycle; 24-hour short positions still lead by a wide margin, about 29.7 times, with short liquidations stabilizing around $17,500; bull resistance strengthens but is just a drop in the bucket. Dog Maker completed full-cycle suppression of shorts on BCH—short, medium, and long-term shorts were targeted and destroyed in all directions, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $18,000. Although the volume is limited, the direction of short squeezing is extremely consistent. Everyone should control their positions to avoid being reclaimed.
🔥 Market Indicators | August 10
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is on three different battlefields, simultaneously playing out the harsh pricing of "expectation gaps."
📉 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turn negative: The scales of rate hikes tip toward CPI
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far from the expected increase of 50,000 to 140,000. However, the unemployment rate fell from 4.17% to 4.09%, the lowest since June 2025.
A contradictory report of "reduced employment, falling unemployment rate" has made the outlook for a rate hike in September even more uncertain. The New Federal Reserve Press Agency bluntly stated: "This is a chaotic report." CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen from 57% to 44%. The real deciding factor is not employment, but the July CPI released on August 12.
💾 Deposit stocks fall after earnings reports: The more explosive the earnings, the harder the drop
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital revenue was $3.747 billion, up 44% year-on-year. However, SanDisk's post-market share once plunged more than 11%, and Western Digital plunged over 18%.
The main culprit behind the sharp drop is insufficiently optimistic guidance—SanDisk's median revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, below market expectations. Against the backdrop of a yearly increase of over 460%, the market has fully priced in the positive news, and the otherwise dull outlook has been interpreted as a negative signal.
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? Morgan Stanley believes the most dramatic adjustment is nearing its end; But Bernstein pointed out that memory chips are gradually becoming a cost burden for both AI and non-AI applications. The long-term logic of the supercycle remains unbroken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified infinitely.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, increasing tradable shares from 639 million to 1.55 billion shares. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
But instead of falling, the stock price rose—up 6% on the day of lock-up, about 16% the next day, with a cumulative gain of about 23% over two days. After the earnings report, the 14% plunge signaled early release of unlocking pressure; Bears were forced to cover and form buying interest. But the alarm remained—over 250 million shares were still shorted.
💎 Summary
The chaotic signals from the nonfarm payrolls tipped the scales toward the September rate hike in favor of CPI; SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have outpaced fundamentals; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" with a surge on the day of the lock-up. In the first week of August, all three markets operated simultaneously in ways beyond expectations—the old logic was collapsing, new pricing power was forming, and it punished all the "imperfect" answers. #非农意外转负, CPI became the key to rate hikes
#存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? The signal that hadn't appeared in six years has just come on
TechDev_52 posted a chart today, saying that the business cycle indicator has completed its first "bull market turnaround" in six years.
The same signals appeared before the launch of the previous three major Bitcoin markets—2013, 2017, and 2021
ETFs are also cooperating. In the first week of August, spot ETFs saw net inflows of $853 million, five times the total for July. BlackRock alone took $693 million, accounting for 81%. Five consecutive days of all-green without a single day of decline
BTC has rebounded from 62,000 to above 65,000, approaching the key resistance level of 66,000. Once the volume breaks through, there will be considerable upside potential
Here's a detail: the ISM manufacturing PMI is still at 47.9, below the 50 threshold. Historical data shows that the peak of Bitcoin bull markets usually occurs when ISM reaches 55-65. The signal has just turned bullish, but macro has not caught up yet. This lag is precisely an opportunity window
The signal for a once-in-six-years event has come into play: ETFs are aggressively accumulating shares, and BTC is gathering momentum near 65,000
I'm eyeing 66,000. If it's a breakout on high volume, follow it; if it's a fake breakout, wait for a pullback before buying
Don't go all in, but this signal is worth taking seriouslyAI hyperscale computing power trading suddenly slowed at the peak of earnings reports, and funds heavily invested in hardware and infrastructure began seeking exit at the edge of the top box.
After opening high with a gap on the day of the strong earnings release, Caterpillar quickly pulled back, erasing most of its gains before closing with a series of negative candlesticks.
This change in price retracement reflects a weakening willingness to buy at high levels, and a shift in capital pricing perspectives for the computing power expansion chain.
When the market confirms signs of high-level distribution of core infrastructure stocks, the overall price structure of the AI industry chain faces pressure from shifting from high-level fluctuations to trend corrections.
If computing power spending expectations can heat up again, $AMD will find support on the consolidation platform and stabilize and rebound, rendering the peak pullback logic invalid.
Conversely, if $AMD breaks through the key bottoming platform, it will directly confirm the completion of the top pattern and increase the risk of structural breakout.
Only when the price strongly reclaims the retracement high of the earnings report and the main upward pattern is reconstructed will the current top completion hypothesis be disproven.
The most noteworthy variable in the coming days is whether $AMD can hold the support line at the lower edge of the current box.
#财报观察员: After the lock-up rebound, what is SpaceX's outlook? #俄罗斯加密监管法9月生效, the boundaries between transactions and payments are clear📊 $SUI Contract Liquidation Express (August 10)
According to liquidation data, short-cycle bears are being pinned down and rubbing wildly, but long-term bulls are starting to fight back...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour $16.52 $0 $16.52
4 hours $26,900 $26,900 $26.90 million $26.54
12 hours: $259,100, $34,000, $225,200
24 hours: $355,600, $45,900, $309,600
From the $SUI liquidation data, within 1 hour, short liquidations crushed the bulls, monopolizing all the shorts, with a short squeeze flash opening but very small amounts; On the 4-hour direction, there was a sudden reversal, with long liquidations crushing short positions, bulls 1013 times the shorts, and the bullish killing erupted across the board; On the 12-hour direction, the market reversed again, with short liquidations crushing the bulls, who were 6.6 times the bulls, marking a comeback of short squeezes; The 24-hour short advantage further expanded to about 6.7 times, with Dog Zhuang completing a triple squeeze of short squeeze → long → then short squeeze again, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $350,000. The rhythm is extremely chaotic; wherever you chase, you get cut off. Everyone should control their positions to avoid being recovered and cut off.
🔥 Market Indicators | August 10
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is on three different battlefields, simultaneously playing out the harsh pricing of "expectation gaps."
📉 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turn negative: The scales of rate hikes tip toward CPI
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far from the expected increase of 50,000 to 140,000. However, the unemployment rate fell from 4.17% to 4.09%, the lowest since June 2025.
A contradictory report of "reduced employment, falling unemployment rate" has made the outlook for a rate hike in September even more uncertain. The New Federal Reserve Press Agency bluntly stated: "This is a chaotic report." CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen from 57% to 44%. The real deciding factor is not employment, but the July CPI released on August 12.
💾 Deposit stocks fall after earnings reports: The more explosive the earnings, the harder the drop
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital revenue was $3.747 billion, up 44% year-on-year. However, SanDisk's post-market share once plunged more than 11%, and Western Digital plunged over 18%.
The main culprit behind the sharp drop is insufficiently optimistic guidance—SanDisk's median revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, below market expectations. Against the backdrop of a yearly increase of over 460%, the market has fully priced in the positive news, and the otherwise dull outlook has been interpreted as a negative signal.
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? Morgan Stanley believes the most dramatic adjustment is nearing its end; But Bernstein pointed out that memory chips are gradually becoming a cost burden for both AI and non-AI applications. The long-term logic of the supercycle remains unbroken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified infinitely.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, increasing tradable shares from 639 million to 1.55 billion shares. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
But instead of falling, the stock price rose—up 6% on the day of lock-up, about 16% the next day, with a cumulative gain of about 23% over two days. After the earnings report, the 14% plunge signaled early release of unlocking pressure; Bears were forced to cover and form buying interest. But the alarm remained—over 250 million shares were still shorted.
💎 Summary
The chaotic signals from the nonfarm payrolls tipped the scales toward the September rate hike in favor of CPI; SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have outpaced fundamentals; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" with a surge on the day of the lock-up. In the first week of August, all three markets operated simultaneously in ways beyond expectations—the old logic was collapsing, new pricing power was forming, and it punished all the "imperfect" answers. #非农意外转负, CPI became the key to rate hikes
#存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? Here's a somewhat painful observation: the biggest problem with this round of $BTC and a bunch of knockoffs isn't a drop, but a lack of new stories. On the US side, AI, optical communications, and commercial aerospace are all flooding in with new narratives; gold is de-dollarized and central banks buying gold—money is all about stories. What about crypto? The ETF positive news has been digested, the halving narrative is over, and market funds are becoming more picky and thin. Without new narratives, there is no incremental capital—that's the root of the flat market. Instead of being slapped back and forth inside the box, it's better to protect your bullets and wait for the next real story to emerge. Let's see.Here's a structural, non-emotional, evidence of gold buying: at the end of July, China's central bank increased its gold reserves by about 20 tons, marking 21 consecutive months of accumulation; Central banks in emerging markets like India and South Korea are also replenishing their holdings during the same period. Central banks' gold buying without watching daily price movements is a multi-year phase of de-dollarized allocation—this kind of buying is slow and dull, but it provides an increasingly solid bottom for gold prices. That's why, after every pullback, institutions dare to buy near 4000. Putting this into your macro framework is more useful than just staring at candlesticks and guessing tops. Look at your position size.This chart shows the net realized profit and loss of long-term Bitcoin holders.
Here, long-term holders refer to at least
Investors who have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days.
Therefore, on average, it excludes those who are being treated
The market is led by the nose with minor fluctuations,
Investors eaten by whales.
Historically, they rarely sell at the sight of a loss.
But when the bear market truly began, even they
It can also fall below the zero line, causing losses and selling assets.
And so, it stayed steadily below negative levels, and finally
Most long-term investors also give up and sell tiredly
And when it leaves the market, extreme negative spikes occur.
Currently, in the 2026 bear market, we have not seen anything like that
The last major drop.
Just for this alone, I anticipate unexpected moments for the public
Bitcoin will plunge again. $btc - 60k bottom prediction
After hopeful and localized bullish sentiment, now boredom has arrived.
Update on the bottom prediction we made in February. Just a reminder, because we have been doing contrarian short trades since 66k+, and we are still doing so now.
Therefore, although I have loudly and clearly stated that contrarian bears are important, it is always good to remember the bigger picture.
Since the last update, many things have changed. Although price movements have been minimal, market participants have seen significant local shifts. In February, my prediction for the 60k bottom experienced a strong rebound, and in June, my warning about 60k rebounded even more aggressively (prices wait for the low, but sentiment drops even lower)......
…… Just think of those famous charts from February, when everyone was "calling for a top," saying "we're going to drop below 50k," "we're in a bear market," as if it would be a classic bear market. We said no, we said this bear market would be shallower and stop near 60k.
And now, many of those people are speaking in a completely different tone, especially when we break above 66k. "July rebound." "I do swing longs." "160k is coming," and so on.
This sentiment reversal has already been quite firmly established, but given the market's attempt to bottom, the appearance of all my "Magic 7" confluence points, and the very low likelihood of Bitcoin falling below 50k in today's market environment, the probability of this bottoming idea coming true is much higher.
However, what many people get wrong is that we don't need extreme bearish sentiment to bottom out the market. It has already passed when the peak below 60k is needed. We only need a local bullish sentiment reversal to resolve it, which is exactly what we usually see at every bottom—boredom.
It was that period when price movements were extremely slow, as if the market had lost all liquidity, creating a false picture of "the world losing interest in the asset."
Therefore, in my view, this boredom aligns quite well with the period we're currently in, the price behavior we've witnessed, and the overall sentiment and atmosphere around Bitcoin.
This also means local consolidation, which means exhausting participants, further supporting our local bearish idea since we are at the high point of the consolidation.
All in all, it's a very typical bottoming process, accompanied by quite interesting emotional twists that perfectly match what you want to see.还记得前几轮熊市吗？社群都变得很沉默，项目方装死、矿机按斤卖，无聊到让人怀疑人生。但这轮熊市，好像不在无聊
交易所接入了美股交易，传统金融的血液注入了加密赌场。波动性一夜10%的振幅让山寨币相形见绌，可玩性多空双向、杠杆拉满！
忽然发现现在很少交易员再去玩山寨了，过去靠拉盘山寨、操纵小币种收割散户的套路，现在不好使了。交易员宁愿去交易量巨大美股，也不愿接盘那些生态叙事。即便偶尔有山寨试图暴力拉盘，社群反应也很平淡！即便某个币跌了99%也没人去关注了！比特币投机资金永远流向波动最大、流动性最好的战场。现在的币圈，要么拥抱主流资产的高效博弈，要么彻底退场看戏。📊 $SPCX合约爆仓速递（8月10日）
根据爆仓数据，短周期空头被按在地上疯狂摩擦，但中长周期多头直接血崩了。。。
时间 总爆仓 多单爆仓 空单爆仓
1小时 $10.97万 $10.97万 $0
4小时 $412.76万 $19.39万 $393.37万
12小时 $426.54万 $21.59万 $404.95万
24小时 $459.86万 $27.82万 $432.04万
从$SPCX爆仓数据看，1小时多头爆仓碾压空头，空头为零，杀多闪击开局即猛烈；4小时方向骤然逆转，空头爆仓碾压多头，空头是多头的20倍，逼空全面爆发；12小时空头优势持续扩大，比例约18.7倍，逼空贯穿短中周期；24小时空头爆仓飙升至432万美元，是空头的15.5倍，狗庄在SPCX上完成了从杀多到逼空的凶狠转身——短周期做多的被定向爆破，中长周期做空的被一锅端，累计爆仓突破459万美元。空头血流成河，逼空行情势如破竹。大家控制好仓位，别被来回收割。
🔥 市场风向标 | 8月10日
今日三条热点，指向同一主题：市场正在三个不同的战场上，同时演绎"预期差"的残酷定价。
📉 非农意外转负：加息的天平倒向CPI
美国7月非农就业人数意外减少2.3万人，大幅偏离预期的增加5万-14万人。但失业率从4.17%降至4.09%，创2025年6月以来新低。
一份"就业减少、失业率下降"的矛盾报告，让9月加息前景更加扑朔迷离。"新美联储通讯社"直言："这是一份混乱的报告。"CME数据显示，9月加息概率已从57%回落至44%。真正的决定因素不是就业，而是8月12日公布的7月CPI。
💾 存储股财报后下跌：业绩越炸，跌得越狠
闪迪Q4营收89.65亿美元，同比暴增372%；西部数据营收37.47亿美元，同比增44%。然而，闪迪盘后一度大跌逾11%，西部数据大跌超18%。
暴跌的元凶是指引不够乐观——闪迪下季营收指引中值105.5亿美元，低于市场预期。在年内涨幅超460%的背景下，市场已将利好充分计价，平淡的未来指引被解读为负面信号。
AI内存牛市还稳吗？大摩认为最剧烈的调整已接近尾声；但伯恩斯坦指出，存储芯片正逐渐成为AI与非AI应用的成本负担。超级周期的长期逻辑未破，但估值已跑在基本面之前，任何瑕疵都会被无限放大。
🚀 SpaceX解禁后反涨：利空出尽的经典剧本
8月6日，SpaceX首批9.115亿股限售股解禁，可交易股份从6.39亿股增至15.5亿股。此前市场普遍预期将触发抛售潮。
结果股价不跌反涨——解禁当日涨6%，次日再涨约16%，两日累计涨幅约23%。财报后暴跌14%已提前释放解禁压力；空头被迫回补形成买盘。但警报未解除——仍有超2.5亿股被做空。
💎 总结
非农的混乱信号让9月加息的天平倒向CPI；闪迪用372%的增长换来暴跌，证明存储股估值已跑在基本面之前；SpaceX用解禁日的暴涨，演绎了"利空出尽"的经典剧本。8月第一周，三个市场同时以超出预期的方式运行——旧逻辑在崩塌，新定价权在形成，而它惩罚所有"不够完美"的答案。#存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ $CL Recently, oil prices have fluctuated with particular volatility. A few days ago, there was good news from US-Iran negotiations, easing concerns about supply disruptions, leading to consecutive sharp drops in oil prices. The previous day, tensions in the Middle East resurfaced, oil tanker transport risks were high, and oil prices rebounded slightly. Today, the overall trend was rather stalemate, with bulls and bears having different views: one feared a shipping lane issue or crude oil shipments couldn't be shipped, hoping to stockpile up and see a bullish trend; On the other hand, oil-producing countries are gradually increasing production, so overall supply is not tight, so they dare not blindly chase high prices. Everyone is now waiting for U.S. CPI inflation data to be released. If the data is higher, it will boost expectations for rate hikes and strengthen the dollar, putting pressure on oil prices for $MU $SKHYNIX $SNDK As inflation cools and the dollar weakens, oil prices have room to continue rising. Short-term geopolitical news comes quickly and is full of variables; oil prices fluctuate rapidly, and short-term follow-up operations can easily lead to pitfalls. $BTC $XAU #霍尔木兹谈判取得进展, has the risk of oil prices cooled down? #临时通航协议待落地, oil price risks have not yet reversed. #存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable? 一条容易被划过去、但值得单独拎出来的行业信号：OpenAI 暂停了新模型 Astra 的开发，理由是担心它具备关键的网络攻击能力。这事表面是安全新闻，底下是 AI 叙事正在进入一个新阶段——从「比谁更强」开始转向「强到监管和公司自己都害怕」。当能力本身变成风险，行业的估值逻辑和政策变量都会跟着变。AI 这条主线的故事远没讲完，只是章节在换。走着看。📊 $LAB合约爆仓速递（8月10日）
根据爆仓数据，这波多头被狗庄按在地上疯狂摩擦了。。。
时间 总爆仓 多单爆仓 空单爆仓
1小时 $329.93 $329.93 $0
4小时 $3,657.67 $3,657.29 $0.38
12小时 $8,334.16 $6,846.00 $1,488.17
24小时 $2.78万 $2.55万 $2,222.45
从$LAB爆仓数据看，1小时和4小时多头爆仓碾压空头，1小时空头为零，4小时空头仅0.38美元，杀多行情在短周期以核爆级烈度展开；12小时多头优势持续但收窄，比例约4.6倍，杀多贯穿短中周期；24小时多头爆仓飙升至2.55万美元，是空头的11.5倍，狗庄在LAB上完成了对多头的全周期屠杀——短中长周期多头被全方位定向爆破，空头仅有的反抗在长周期略有增强但杯水车薪，累计爆仓突破2.7万美元。大家控制好仓位，别被来回收割。
🔥 市场风向标 | 8月10日
今日三条热点，指向同一主题：市场正在三个不同的战场上，同时演绎"预期差"的残酷定价。
📉 非农意外转负：加息的天平倒向CPI
美国7月非农就业人数意外减少2.3万人，大幅偏离预期的增加5万-14万人。但失业率从4.17%降至4.09%，创2025年6月以来新低。
一份"就业减少、失业率下降"的矛盾报告，让9月加息前景更加扑朔迷离。"新美联储通讯社"直言："这是一份混乱的报告。"CME数据显示，9月加息概率已从57%回落至44%。真正的决定因素不是就业，而是8月12日公布的7月CPI。
💾 存储股财报后下跌：业绩越炸，跌得越狠
闪迪Q4营收89.65亿美元，同比暴增372%；西部数据营收37.47亿美元，同比增44%。然而，闪迪盘后一度大跌逾11%，西部数据大跌超18%。
暴跌的元凶是指引不够乐观——闪迪下季营收指引中值105.5亿美元，低于市场预期。在年内涨幅超460%的背景下，市场已将利好充分计价，平淡的未来指引被解读为负面信号。
AI内存牛市还稳吗？大摩认为最剧烈的调整已接近尾声；但伯恩斯坦指出，存储芯片正逐渐成为AI与非AI应用的成本负担。超级周期的长期逻辑未破，但估值已跑在基本面之前，任何瑕疵都会被无限放大。
🚀 SpaceX解禁后反涨：利空出尽的经典剧本
8月6日，SpaceX首批9.115亿股限售股解禁，可交易股份从6.39亿股增至15.5亿股。此前市场普遍预期将触发抛售潮。
结果股价不跌反涨——解禁当日涨6%，次日再涨约16%，两日累计涨幅约23%。财报后暴跌14%已提前释放解禁压力；空头被迫回补形成买盘。但警报未解除——仍有超2.5亿股被做空。
💎 总结
非农的混乱信号让9月加息的天平倒向CPI；闪迪用372%的增长换来暴跌，证明存储股估值已跑在基本面之前；SpaceX用解禁日的暴涨，演绎了"利空出尽"的经典剧本。8月第一周，三个市场同时以超出预期的方式运行——旧逻辑在崩塌，新定价权在形成，而它惩罚所有"不够完美"的答案。#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键
#存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ Let's look at a set of capital flow data easily overshadowed by price fluctuations: According to the World Gold Council, global gold ETFs saw a net inflow of $3 billion in July, reversing two consecutive months of outflows; Domestically, gold ETFs saw net subscriptions for 17 consecutive trading days, totaling over $11 billion. Cash flow is more honest than price—it tells you that the money for safe-haven and rebalancing is truly moving inward, not just shouting. In contrast, $BTC saw almost zero inflows during the same period, so this round of so-called 'digital gold' was absent from the capital vote. Depends on the position.📊 $KAITO Contract Liquidation Express (August 10)
According to liquidation data, the bulls and bears repeatedly squeeze and squeeze, while the dog farmer buys back and sells...
Time: Total liquidation, long liquidation, short liquidation
1 hour: $80,000, $22,600, $57,400
4 hours: $773,700 $386,800 $386,800
12 hours: $1,285,100 $747,700 $537,400
24 hours: $1,695,200 $1,120,000 $575,200
From $KAITO's liquidation data, within 1 hour, short liquidations crushed the bulls, with bears being 2.5 times longer than bulls, and the short squeeze was fierce right from the start; within 4 hours, both sides were evenly drawn, with both sides liquidated $386,800, making the direction extremely unclear; at 12 hours, the direction reversed, with long liquidations overtaking bears at about 1.39 times, triggering the long sell-off; within 24 hours, long liquidations surged to $1.12 million, 1.95 times the shorts. On KAITO, Dog Farm completed a fierce turnaround from short squeezing to long selling—short-term short chases were targeted and destroyed, medium- to long-term long chases were wiped out all at once, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $1.69 million. Everyone should control their positions and avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Indicators | August 10
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market is on three different battlefields, simultaneously playing out the harsh pricing of "expectation gaps."
📉 Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly turn negative: The scales of rate hikes tip toward CPI
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far from the expected increase of 50,000 to 140,000. However, the unemployment rate fell from 4.17% to 4.09%, the lowest since June 2025.
A contradictory report of "reduced employment, falling unemployment rate" has made the outlook for a rate hike in September even more uncertain. The New Federal Reserve Press Agency bluntly stated: "This is a chaotic report." CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has fallen from 57% to 44%. The real deciding factor is not employment, but the July CPI released on August 12.
💾 Deposit stocks fall after earnings reports: The more explosive the earnings, the harder the drop
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital revenue was $3.747 billion, up 44% year-on-year. However, SanDisk's post-market share once plunged more than 11%, and Western Digital plunged over 18%.
The main culprit behind the sharp drop is insufficiently optimistic guidance—SanDisk's median revenue guidance for next quarter is $10.55 billion, below market expectations. Against the backdrop of a yearly increase of over 460%, the market has fully priced in the positive news, and the otherwise dull outlook has been interpreted as a negative signal.
Is the AI memory bull market still stable? Morgan Stanley believes the most dramatic adjustment is nearing its end; But Bernstein pointed out that memory chips are gradually becoming a cost burden for both AI and non-AI applications. The long-term logic of the supercycle remains unbroken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified infinitely.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, increasing tradable shares from 639 million to 1.55 billion shares. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
But instead of falling, the stock price rose—up 6% on the day of lock-up, about 16% the next day, with a cumulative gain of about 23% over two days. After the earnings report, the 14% plunge signaled early release of unlocking pressure; Bears were forced to cover and form buying interest. But the alarm remained—over 250 million shares were still shorted.
💎 Summary
The chaotic signals from the nonfarm payrolls tipped the scales toward the September rate hike in favor of CPI; SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have outpaced fundamentals; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" with a surge on the day of the lock-up. In the first week of August, all three markets operated simultaneously in ways beyond expectations—the old logic was collapsing, new pricing power was forming, and it punished all the "imperfect" answers. #非农意外转负, CPI became the key to rate hikes
#存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? 多空拥挤榜
费率看谁在付钱，价仓看这笔钱有没有换来方向。
$KAITO 当前费率-0.5083%，过去24小时已结-1.842%，处于最近样本的2%分位。 价仓一起回落，减仓压力正在释放，具体哪一侧退出无法单凭这组数据确认。 持仓正在下降，拥挤仓位先退潮，当前重点是减仓速度何时放慢。
$BICO 当前费率-0.1648%，过去24小时已结-0.695%，处于最近样本的7%分位。 价格与持仓反向扩大，短线不是单纯多仓撤退。 下跌增仓承接了深负费率，方向暂时有效；OI继续升而价格停住时要防拥挤反噬。
$ZBT 当前费率-0.1551%，过去24小时已结-0.360%，处于最近样本的0%分位。 价仓同向走高，这段波动有新仓参与，不是纯减仓推动。 空侧成本较高，价仓又向上扩张；若回踩不破，压力会继续留在空侧。