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#财报观察员：Mixed earnings, lock-up expiration approaching! What's next for SpaceX? $SNDK Before SanDisk's earnings report, I really thought about exiting. Entered at 1391, lower boundary at 1219, a space of over a hundred points. I thought even with earnings volatility, it wouldn't directly break through. So I stayed. Then the earnings came out: 8.97 billion in revenue, 39.25 EPS, 84.6% gross margin. The data was quite good. Still, it dropped 9% after hours. Just because the next quarter guidance waGold returns to $4200—why hasn't BTC followed the rise?
Let's start with three things.
First, ADP is 44,000.
In July, private employment in the U.S. increased by only 44,000. June was 95,000 yuan, while the market expected 75,000. and was cut in half at the waist. The lowest since January this year.
The job market has cooled down.
Second, gold at $4,200.
Spot gold broke through 4200, and COMEX futures stood above 4300. It rose more than 3% in a single day, marking the largest gain since February. Six-week high.
The market is betting real money on one thing—interest rate cuts.
Third, BTC at $64,000.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $211.5 million on Tuesday. But BTC prices remained unchanged, hovering at 64,000.
ETFs are buying, but prices remain unchanged.
Three numbers placed together, what do you see?
Normal logic should be like this:
ADP weakened→ rate hike expectations cooled→ the dollar fell, US Treasury yields fell→ gold surged.
By the same logic, BTC is "digital gold" and should follow the rise.
But the reality is: gold surges, BTC is playing dead.
Where is the breakpoint?
First, Coinbase's premium has been negative for nearly 80 consecutive days. American institutions are selling, Asia is buying, and the net result is—no results.
Second, Wintermute traders spoke the plain truth: ETF buying came in, but it didn't push prices higher. Marginal buyers in the spot market are not truly "bullish all the way."
Third, for BTC to sustain a sustained rebound, three conditions must be met simultaneously: sustained ETF inflows, cooling US Treasury yields, and the Federal Reserve not raising interest rates. The first two are happening, the third is the Fed still holding steady at 3.5%-3.75%, with three internal committee members wanting to raise rates.
So the current situation is:
Macro winds have already started to blow—expectations of rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and risk aversion—all present.
But BTC's sails have not yet been raised.
Gold has already surged to 4200 thanks to this wind. BTC is still at the 64,000 level, like someone waiting for the wind—the wind comes, but the sails haven't moved.
65,000 yuan is the signal for that "Zhang Fan."
The volume surged above 65,000, indicating that macro logic has finally been transmitted to the crypto market. If they can't make it, they just keep grinding within the script of "all the good news is out."
ETFs are buying, but prices are unchanged—this is even more worrying than a decline.
Because you're waiting for a rise that should have happened, and it just doesn't happen.
65,000. Keep a close watch. That is a signal.#伊朗阿曼临时通航协议近落地 The agreement is about to be signed, and oil prices have already dropped by 11%. Brent crude has plunged from above $88 to around $79 within three days, as the market has already priced in peace. But signing the agreement does not mean ships can pass. The Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister said, "We absolutely do not accept external forces' intervention." The US has not lifted the blockade, and the strait remains closed. Currently, the daily number of ships passing is 8, compared to【八月上旬的真相：钱没进来，债在流血】
BTC站回64500附近，美股道指再创收盘历史新高，英伟达五连涨，市值逼近5.8万亿美元，美光重返万亿美元俱乐部。表面上，风险资产在反弹。
但拆开细看，两个深层信号不太对劲。
**第一个信号：科技股在加速分化。**
AMD暴跌7%，财报指引没超预期，资金直接砸盘。同一晚，英伟达逆势涨超3.4%，连续五天上涨，创两个月新高。这不是普涨行情，是资金在做极端筛选——只买有绝对竞争优势的龙头，其余全扔。
更值得玩味的是谷歌。AI部门又出人事变动，股价跌超4%；亚马逊跌近2%，微软跌超1%，AI概念股整体走弱。纳斯达克结束四连涨，资金从高估值成长股撤向医药和必需消费。
**第二个信号：美联储还在加码鹰派表态。**
明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利明确说：“现在是开始缓慢上调利率的时候了。” 美联储理事库克紧接着表态：如果通胀数据不改善，已准备支持加息。她说得很直接——“通胀风险高于就业风险，政策空间正在缩小。”
两天内两位官员释放加息信号，9月加息概率维持在55%左右。美股在涨，债市在崩，BTC在64500这个位置犹豫不决。
**八月怎么看？**
新火研究院的判断是：当前BTC价格处于“高性价比建仓区间”。但他们同时给出了清晰的逻辑前提：8月7日非农数据、8月12日CPI，将决定方向。
这跟我的判断一致。
技术面上，BTC守住了62300-63000的底部支撑，短期重新测试64500-65000压力区。新火研究院认为，CLARITY法案延期、特朗普钱包转账、Coldcard安全漏洞这三大利空市场已基本消化，但政策真空会导致ETF流入维持低位、机构观望。
AIX的策略这两天一直在等。从62300反弹到64500这段，它没追。4小时级别在反弹结构中，但1小时RSI已偏高，系统给的结论是：等64500-65000区域的量能确认，再触发做多；或者等回踩63500-63800企稳，再考虑左侧。
**操作区间**
如果BTC回踩63500-63800区域企稳且放量止跌，接多，止损62800，目标65000-65500。如果反弹到65000-65300遇阻缩量，轻仓短空，止损65800，目标64000-63500。如果价格继续在63500-65000之间横着，不操作。
这波反弹的本质是油价暴跌带来的通胀预期改善，而不是资金重新大举进场。机构没回来，美联储没松口，BTC想直接冲上66000，需要非农和CPI给出真正的信号。
八月才走了四分之一，方向还没定。$ETH 韩股熔断引发亚洲市场去杠杆，美国经济景气走弱，美债实际利率上行，全局风险偏好降温。比特币高beta属性凸显，和美股科技资产联动进一步强化，中概相关加密标的流动性承压更为明显。
盘面各类先行指标陆续走坏：VIX上行，加密概念股走弱；现货ETF持续赎回，机构筹码逐步移位兑现；衍生品资金费率转弱，看跌对冲仓位持续抬升；链上代币不断向交易场所归集，巨鲸大户筹码悄然腾挪离场；行情反弹乏力、下探放量，筹码松动迹象持续加剧。
随着机构避险调仓行为反复发酵，风险在盘面不断积聚，后续存在深度回调的潜在空间，仓位避险离场的窗口期正在不断收窄，负反馈一旦形成，将诱发连锁清算，下行空间会被进一步打开。$BTC is forming a bottom in a "boring sideways" pattern, but there may still be a "final dip." According to the latest Glassnode report, Bitcoin is slowly forming a bottom. On July 31, the Coldcard incident resulted in the theft of about 594 BTC. In the following three days, the amount of Bitcoin that had not moved for over a year surged to about 119,000 BTC, but only about one-tenth flowed into exchanges, and the price did not show a significant panic reaction. This indicates that long-teFundamental Research Report $POL / Polygon (L2/Sidechain) $3.20
To summarize: Polygon ($POL) has an overall score of 59/100, with a rating focused on narrative over implementation. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Let's look at projects first: Polygon (token $POL), L2/sidechain track. Focuses on ZK+AggLayer upgrades. Benchmarks ARB and OP. Traditional enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation; during high concurrency, gas surges, TPS is limited, and cross-chain bridge security incidents occur frequently. Public blockchains use unified state machines for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Average order value is $50-500/month, requiring USDC or fiat currency settlement. Narrative-driven track, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product launch: protocol layer officially operational, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
On the user side, address MAU is not disclosed, DAU is not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active individuals; concentrated holdings of large addresses overestimate actual user numbers. On the revenue side, user fees are undisclosed; supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (belonging to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy and burn annualized without a burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. Company profits do not equal protocol profits, protocol profits do not equal token holders profit. Code side: 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is A-level evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look at PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, refer to whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlock contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level but do not represent long-term holdings by tech VCs; for technical integration, see API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. Using NVIDIA GPUs does not mean NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not mean strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (accounting for +3.50% circulating volume), burn buyback annualized rate, no clear buyback burn. Must you buy coins to use the product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/Collateral/Service Access). Looking together with peers (unified caliber, no cross-sector random comparison): In terms of circulating market cap, Polygon $3.00B, ARB undisclosed, OP not disclosed. FDV: Polygon $4.20B, ARB undisclosed, OP not disclosed. Annualized revenue: Polygon $2.00M, ARB undisclosed, OP not disclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Polygon not disclosed, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; some omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% of the original price, with neutral range fluctuations; optimistic outlook: revenue doubles, burns land, enterprise clients join, FDV matches P/S, and the top companies. In short: solid fundamentals (score 59/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Three major risks: short-term large-scale unlocking and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue reversing to zero, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives are cut off, usage collapses). Key focus from here on: protocol fee weekliness, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. Data from public sources is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Indicator deviations exceeding 30% require reassessment.
Once the fundamentals are dismantled, how the market moves is another matter.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbit📊 $ZEC Contract Liquidation Update (August 6)
According to liquidation data, the short sellers were brutally crushed by the dog whales...
Liquidation amount in the past 1 hour: approximately $23,200
Long position liquidations: approximately $23,000
Short position liquidations: approximately $141.32
Liquidation amount in the past 4 hours: approximately $56,500
Long position liquidations: approximately $48,000
Short position liquidations: approximately $8,543.30
Liquidation amount in the past 12 hours: approximately $367,800
Long position liquidations: approximately $222,000
Short position liquidations: approximately $145,800
Liquidation amount in the past 24 hours: approximately $1,176,300
Long position liquidations: approximately $346,700
Short position liquidations: approximately $829,500
From the $ZEC liquidation data, long position liquidations in the 1-hour and 4-hour windows overwhelmingly surpass short position liquidations, with long liquidations being 163 times and 5.6 times that of shorts respectively, indicating a fierce short squeeze at the start; the 12-hour long advantage narrows to 1.52 times, showing a significant increase in short squeeze pressure; the 24-hour direction completely reverses, with short liquidations crushing longs, shorts being 2.4 times longs. The dog whales have executed a ruthless pivot on ZEC from short liquidation to short squeeze — short-term longs were targeted and destroyed, while mid-to-long-term shorts were wiped out, with total liquidations exceeding $1.17 million. Everyone should manage their positions carefully to avoid being harvested back and forth.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 6
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a phase of "not only good, but flawlessly good" — "exceeding expectations" is just the entry ticket, any flaw will be magnified.
💾 SanDisk: 372% Growth + $14 Billion Buyback, Still Knocked Down by "Not Impressive Enough"
SanDisk delivered explosive earnings: Q4 revenue $8.97 billion, up 372% year-over-year; adjusted EPS $39.25, 135 times that of a year ago; board approved $14 billion stock buyback plan. Full-year revenue $20.25 billion, up 175% year-over-year.
However, after-hours stock price plunged nearly 8%. The culprit was next quarter's guidance — revenue midpoint $10.55 billion, below market expectation of $10.82 billion. Gross margin guidance of 83%-85% suggests high margins may plateau. 372% growth is not enough, $14 billion buyback is not enough — the market demands "perfection."
💳 Circle: USDC Growth Steady, Arc Becomes New Narrative
Before market open on August 5, stablecoin giant Circle released Q2 results: total revenue $701 million, up 7% year-over-year; net profit $48 million, turning profitable from a loss last year. USDC circulation reached $73.3 billion, up 19%; on-chain transaction volume $14.8 trillion, up 151% year-over-year.
The biggest highlight is Arc — the company significantly raised full-year other income guidance to $310-$330 million, mainly reflecting $242 million Arc token presale revenue confirmed in Q2. USDC is the base, Arc is the future the market is betting on. Against the backdrop of increasing crypto payment penetration, Circle is attempting to upgrade from a "stablecoin issuer" to a "crypto financial infrastructure platform."
🚀 SpaceX: Revenue Doubled, Unlocking Peak Is the Real Storm
After market close on August 4, SpaceX released its first earnings report: Q2 revenue $7.814 billion, up 92% year-over-year, far exceeding the expected $6.9 billion; adjusted EBITDA $3.5 billion.
After-hours stock price once plunged over 9%. Capital expenditure soared to $18.4 billion, 6.5 times that of the same period last year — the market rewards spending efficiency, not speed of burning cash. A bigger storm is coming on August 6: about 912 million restricted shares will be unlocked, with a market value of up to $114 billion, equivalent to 1.4 times the current circulating supply. Less than two months after listing, the stock price has nearly halved from its peak.
💎 Summary
SanDisk’s 372% growth resulted in a post-market plunge, SpaceX’s 92% revenue growth led the market to vote with its feet — "exceeding expectations" has become the passing line, only "perfection" can satisfy investors.
As the AI sector moves from "storytelling" to "delivering results," every deviation in guidance and every dollar of capital expenditure will be scrutinized under the spotlight. Old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming — and it punishes all "imperfect" answers. #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ $SNDK During the Pre-Market session, the price may rebound to around $1300. Once the Market Opens, SNDK is likely to continue declining. Look for a Short opportunity around $1300, with a target of $1000. Short setup.
Entry: $1300 - $1280
TP: $1200 - $1100 - $1000
SL: $1365
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback Uniswap’s “newest / oldest” Instant Launch feed isn’t a full history. Age sort and volume sort are different lists. Same API - different notebooks. We crawled every sort on uniswap-bonding-curve. Union: ~16.4k launches. Age was missing ~3.6k (~22%), including $POOLS — live on , #2 by volume, invisible if you only sort by age. BUT anyway. Stop hiding $UNIFROG image#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck Last night, before going to bed, I saw a pending order that got swallowed. The volume wasn't large, but the timing was stuck at the least liquid moment—after the New York market closed and before the Asian market opened. If such small orders show similar patterns during the same period for several consecutive days, they shouldn't just be treated as noise.
It was August 6, 2026, just past 9:30 in the evening. It was stuffy outside the window, and the air conditioner was buzzing.
Today, I didn't follow the candlestick charts but followed the block explorer around a few times, focusing on the relationship graphs between addresses. Several wallets with abnormal interaction frequency have changed their usual transfer rhythm in the past 48 hours: multisignature addresses fed hot wallets less frequently, while withdrawal actions from market maker-linked addresses are diverted to different exchanges. The details are not complicated, but when connected, it feels like a spider web being gently twisted.
Recording what I saw today.
$BTC After grinding in an extremely narrow range all day, option implied volatility contracted in sync. One on-chain move worth noting: an address marked "miner linkage" transferred all the coins accumulated over the past two weeks out in one go, splitting into three paths—entering the custodial cold storage, splitting into small fixed investment deposits to the trading platform, and temporarily storing at an intermediate address. Miners usually sell regularly after halving, but this time, the diversion path didn't seem like a simple sell-off.
$ETH Gas ran at a low level, and Layer 2 network settlement volume slightly rebounded. Spot ETF inflow data was released yesterday, marking the seventh consecutive working day of positive inflows. The single-day increase is small, but the cumulative record is the longest continuous net inflow in nearly three months. On the BASE chain, an address moves very mechanically—initiating an interaction every 15 minutes for nearly four hours, with the interaction being a deposit function from a lending protocol. Bot trading is common, but its frequency pattern is as if measuring a clearing line.
Leading DeFi protocols showed mixed performance. $AAVE** v3 saw several large stablecoin loans, with clean address histories and orderly operations, not impulsive. **$MKR DAI supply suddenly spiked during an afternoon session and then slowly retreated, with burns fluctuating in sync, possibly whales rebalancing positions. $UNI** Front-end aggregation volume rose about 10% week-on-week, concentrated in WBTC/ETH and USDC/ETH pools. **$LINK Price feed call volume remained stable at nearly a month's high, with oracle layer activity often preceding price changes.
In the RWA sector, an institution continuously swept into $ONDO** liquid tokens at a marked address, with each transaction spaced about two hours apart, a rhythm running throughout the Asian session. **$ENS Domain registrations surged abnormally today, with over 70% new registrations. Some addresses were registered at similar times and followed similar naming patterns, as if the same person was mass-building domain assets.
Monetary sector capital concentration is intensifying. The correlation coefficient between $PEPE** and **$BTC remains high, and when the market lacks new stories, capital tends to treat it as a Beta alternative. But internal sector cracks have deepened, and most projects outside the top five have had turnover rates below normal liquidity thresholds today—not by how much has fallen, but simply by no one trading.
On the other side: $ARB** and **$OP trades didn't drop much, but the average amount per transaction shrank sharply—big players were withdrawing, retail investors were holding. $STRK** continued to be under pressure, with sell order depth dropping to only 60% of normal. **$SUI, $APT**, and **$SEI all underperformed the market, $SUI** perpetual contract funding rates turned negative, and the market was willing to pay for short sellers. **$WIF The spread on the order floor widened to its widest in nearly two weeks, and the rebound of $BONK** and **$FLOKI was pushed back to its starting point. $CRV** and **$CAKE community discussions dropped to just below last year's level, and the occasional posts were mostly emotional venting.
There are also some gray area projects: $TIA**, **$INJ, $PENDLE**, **$FXS, $CVX—the projects themselves have no news, but today whale addresses were observed lowering the collateralization ratios of these tokens, like actively reducing leverage. Currently, it's not panic, but if prices drop further, the chain reaction will happen quickly.
Today's net capital flow (only on-chain movement can be tracked, does not represent exchange trading direction): Positive inflows with concentrated inflows include $ENA**, **$PEPE, $ONDO**, **$LINK, $UNI**, **$AAVE, $MKR**, **$ENS, $LDO**, **$RNDR. Net outflows are more prominent and include $WIF**, **$BONK, $FLOKI**, **$ARB, $OP**, **$STRK, $SUI**, **$SEI, $APT**, **$DYDX, $CRV**, **$CAKE. This is just a data slice from today's time window; tomorrow may completely reverse.
The longer you work in this business, the clearer you become: judgment only accounts for 30%, 70% depends on position size and discipline. You take one order out of ten times, and all the previous work is wasted. Most of the market ruins are smart people—smart enough to believe "this time is really different," but the outcome is always the same.
An experienced trader once told me that recording the market isn't about regretting "not catching the lows," but about building a repeatable coping list. Regret is emotional depletion; the list is the carrier of compound interest.
Outside the window, a car occasionally rolls over the flooded road, its sound trailing behind. I close my laptop, drink the water, and leave my phone in the study to charge. There is always another opportunity in the market, just one tonight. Some fluctuations are traps, some nights are better for going to bed early.Yo Xi! Hynix, get to work 🔥
$SKHYNIX Surprisingly, the drop 📉 was so steep
I really went for a small dip fishing
It fell from 1197 all the way down to 1057
This time, it probably won't fall below 1000
Opportunity: My chance is coming again
Look at the current rise 📈 in gold prices
$XAU 4051 went up to 4273
What does that mean?
When gold rises, semiconductor materials must also rise
#闪迪财报双超预期, $14 billion in new buyback authorizations #黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC followed the rise? $BTC $ETH The Korean stock market has experienced multiple circuit breakers, Asian risk assets are passively deleveraging, combined with a weakening US economic outlook and rising real US Treasury yields, causing global risk appetite to decline rapidly. As a high-beta pro-cyclical asset, Bitcoin's correlation with US tech stocks has significantly increased, making it difficult to break out of an independent rally. Downward pressure has accumulated, and liquidity among Chinese concept cryptocurrencies is even weaker, so pullback flexibility will further amplify. In the current environment, prioritizing principal preservation, shrinking exposure, and cashing in unrealized gains are the rational choices for most institutions.
Warning signs that have already appeared
1. The VIX Fear Index continues to rise, US crypto concept stocks weaken relative to the broader market, and equity market risks have already been transmitted outward;
2. Continuous net redemptions of spot Bitcoin ETFs, continuous outflow of institutional allocation funds, weakening the buying foundation;
3. On the derivatives side, perpetual funding rates weakened or even turned negative, increasing put option buying and pre-hedging downside risk;
4. On-chain data shows tokens continue to migrate to exchange addresses, whale large transfers are increasing frequently, and selling pressure reserves are accumulating;
5. Volume-price divergence appearing on the market: rebound shrinks in volume, declines in volume, bullish momentum is exhausted, and chips begin to loosen.
With multiple negative factors resonating together, it is very easy to trigger a chain of contract liquidations and negative feedback, amplifying the decline. The market lacks a safe haven, and the window for position avoidance and maneuvering is narrowing.SpaceX迎来美股历史上最大规模IPO后锁定期解禁，今晚将有9.12亿股内部人士和员工持股解锁，占比20%，按现价计算对应超过1000亿美元的潜在抛压。这不是小数目，这批人大概率要套现改善生活，今天应该是抛压最凶的一次。更麻烦的是后续还有一连串解禁日，8月20日、9月9日、9月24日、10月9日、10月24日分别再解锁约7%，下半年$SPCX 股价将持续承压。 马斯克在财报电话会上明确表示资本支出184亿美元全部砸向AI基础设施，年底算力要超2GW，明年底接近10GW。这意味着今年甚至明年都看不到现金流回正，市场担忧情绪进一步加剧。值得注意的是，SpaceX财报披露持有18,712枚$BTC ，价值约12亿美元，如果解禁引发科技股连锁回调，加密市场恐怕难独善其身。 标普刚创历史新高，此时SpaceX大规模解禁带来的流动性抽血效应不容忽视。科技股一旦调整，资金风险偏好下降，$BTC 短期大概率会跟随波动而非走出独立行情。我维持观望偏谨慎态度，等这波抛压释放完毕再考虑进场。$BTC 下方支撑先看64000美元，如果失守则可能测试62000美元区间。 SpaceX解禁 #Circle财报后I cut my losses on this short position
There have been too many personal matters these past couple of days. I just finished and came back to review this period
All my short positions at 633-635-637 were swallowed up. After being taken, I kept moving down, but the first position in the lower range was 620, only 622
After placing my order and posting, the main force first took the price down, not the top, so I felt it couldn't fall. Later, it climbed to 637, then turned back and didn't reach 620. Later, the macro market shifted toward unfavorable short positions, so the main force will definitely take the opportunity to capture the 65-67k I mentioned earlier. The fact is happening: Becent's intervention in the Japanese exchange rate, Trump's ceasefire, and expectations for strait navigation surge. The Nasdaq and gold surged, and the macro environment completely reversed this week, but BTC didn't surge either. Macro changes are so fast that for long-term investments, macro is really noisy......
Right now, it's the late stage of a bear market with volatility. The main force needs to grind down slowly, until no one pays attention, and even the last batch of hardest-to-wash chips is pulled out. More importantly, they need enough time to accumulate accumulated funds. Trading BTC long or short here is a real test of skill. In the next six months, another strong shakeout by the main force is an excellent buying opportunity. If not, a long period of consolidation is also a buying opportunity
If I don't cut my losses on this short position and just keep wasting with the main players, I can outwit it, but I would miss the chance to trade other US stocks
This time, when I opened a trade, there was a floating profit in the middle, and it lasted quite a while. I forgot to set a stop-loss for the profit-preservation stop-loss point, for example, setting the stop-loss at 630 would definitely guarantee profits. I was too busy and forgot to set it. I didn't even check my phone and forgot 🤣 about this order. I didn't even have time to check US stocks. I went to bed before 11 o'clock, but returning to a rhythmic lifestyle, my inner order returned, and I returned to calm. A while ago, when I opened trades, I kept thinking about it like having a pet, constantly thinking about it, which caused a lot of screen time. Fortunately, I was able to enter flow mode; otherwise, increased screen time would definitely reduce my sense of happiness
Yesterday, I repaired a faucet and pipe in the small yard, got soaked all over. After fixing it, I sprayed water like crazy, happier than earning ten thousand dollars...
Wishing everyone can make money happily too
$BTC Gold rose 4.4% in one day, reclaiming $4200; meanwhile, BTC is still slowly fluctuating around $64,000. These two assets, often called "safe havens," are moving to completely different rhythms this time.
As of now, spot gold is about $4255, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of gains; BTC is around $64,704, with a daily increase of less than 1%, ranging between $63,887 and $64,931.
This round of gold's rise is driven by three simultaneous factors: a weaker dollar, a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, and U.S.-Iran negotiations lowering oil prices and inflation expectations.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield previously rose to 4.747%, now falling back to about 4.63%; market estimates for a September rate hike have dropped from 67% to 55%. Since holding gold yields no interest, a decline in yields directly reduces its opportunity cost relative to bonds.
Although BTC also benefits from the dollar and interest rate declines, it has not gained the pure safe-haven pricing that gold enjoys. In the short term, BTC remains closer to a high-volatility risk asset: when tech stocks cool down and the market deleverages, funds do not automatically switch from stocks to BTC; some funds even return first to gold and cash assets.
But BTC is not without new demand.
The U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of $170.1 million, $211.5 million, and $244.4 million consecutively from August 3 to 5, totaling $626 million over three days. Roughly calculated at $64,704 per BTC, this equals about 9,675 BTC, close to 21.5 days of new mining output.
Despite such a scale of ETF inflows, BTC has not broken through $65,000, indicating there is enough strong selling pressure during the same period to absorb the new demand within the current range. ETF inflows support the price but have not yet created an upward supply-demand imbalance.
There is also no overheating in contract markets. The average funding rate across the BTC market is about 0.0011%, with Binance, OKX, and Bybit at approximately 0.0026%, 0.0064%, and 0.0019%, respectively. Bulls have a slight advantage but are far from a crowded trade.
Gold reclaiming $4200 also needs to be viewed over a longer term. Even after this rebound, spot gold prices remain about 24% below the January high of approximately $5595 this year. This is closer to a macro revaluation after a deep pullback, not gold just hitting a new all-time high.
Meanwhile, global gold ETFs still saw net outflows of about 45 tons in Q2, and central bank gold purchases in the first half of the year dropped to the lowest since 2022. The daily strength differences are not enough to prove that funds are permanently abandoning BTC and fully switching to gold.
The current distinction is clear: gold is trading on falling interest rates, a weaker dollar, and safe-haven demand; BTC is simultaneously absorbing ETF funds and digesting spot selling pressure. Only when ETF inflows continue and the price effectively breaks away from around $65,000 can BTC be considered to have moved from "someone stepping in to buy" to "new demand starting to dominate the price." #内存卖方市场延续, can the Korean stock market see a turnaround?
The memory industry remains a seller's market, with AI computing power driving strong demand for HBM. Major companies hold large amounts of long-term locked-in orders, giving them strong bargaining power.
However, industrial prosperity and stock market trends have clearly diverged, with Korean stocks repeatedly experiencing sharp volatility, with multiple instances of improved earnings and sharp index drops.
There are two voices in the market
🔺 Bulls: The fundamentals are very strong, and leveraged selling pressure has been fully released. Industry prosperity will continue, and after valuation corrections, Korean stocks have a chance for a recovery and reversal.
🔻 Bears: Huge gains in the early stages, with a large number of profit-taking positions waiting to exit. Combined with regulatory disruptions from domestic leveraged ETFs and long-term pressure from expanding domestic storage capacity, even with industry prosperity, the index is unlikely to reverse quickly.
My personal opinion
Industry prosperity does not mean the stock market will immediately reverse; fundamentals can only support the lower bound and cannot solve funding and valuation issues.
Storage remains a strong cyclical sector, and the current sell-side landscape will also be changed by new capacity additions in the future. The Korean stock market is highly tied to the leading storage stocks, and the impact of leveraged funds amplifies price fluctuations.
Don't simply bet on an index reversal based on chip price increases; observe the extent of leverage clearing and the flow of foreign capital.
Mapping the encrypted disk:
The prosperity of the storage sector will indirectly affect the sentiment of DePIN and distributed storage-themed coins.
But this is only a thematic catalyst; the general direction for BTC and ETH remains focused on US Treasury yields.结论：SpaceX在2026年呈现“财务高增长与资本市场高波动”并存——增长由AI与星链驱动，波动源于资本开支失控、估值高企、解禁抛压与AI不确定性，机构与散户对短期现金流与长期壁垒的判断分歧加剧震荡。
财务高增长：AI与星链双轮驱动
- 整体业绩：2026年Q2总营收78.14亿美元，同比+92%；净亏损5.41亿美元，同比收窄近半
- AI业务（引擎）：Q2营收25.61亿美元，同比+247%、环比+213%；主要来自算力租赁与并购并表的贡献
- 算力租赁：与Anthropic、Google签订长期大额算力合同，合计年化收入超260亿美元
- 星链（现金牛）：Q2营收42.91亿美元，运营利润16.56亿美元，利润率38.6%；全球用户约1200万，同比翻倍
资本市场高波动：四大核心风险
- 资本开支失控：Q2资本开支183.69亿美元，为营收的2.35倍；其中AI基础设施158.28亿美元，占比86%
- 自由现金流缺口：上半年经营现金流34.66亿美元，资本开支近285亿美元，缺口近250亿美元
- 估值泡沫化：IPO后峰值市销率一度突破130倍；8月初市值约1.43万亿美元，对应近12个月市销率约69倍
- 解禁抛压：8月6日约9.115亿股解禁，理论流通盘扩大至2.43倍；年底前累计将有40.5%股份解禁
- AI前景不确定：AI业务仍处亏损，Q2运营亏损12.57亿美元
- 客户集中：近38%的AI收入来自两家大客户，流失风险高
- 技术与商业化：“太空AI”等前沿方向尚未完全验证，商业化落地存在不确定性
市场分歧：机构与散户的判断差异
- 机构（偏谨慎）：关注短期现金流与盈利确定性，担忧资本开支侵蚀自由现金流与高估值下的容错空间
- 散户（偏乐观）：将AI高投入视为长期壁垒，押注其复制“先投入、后回报”的科技巨头路径
总结与展望
- 增长来源：AI算力租赁与星链的规模化扩张，支撑营收与用户规模快速提升
- 波动来源：资本开支失控、估值高企、解禁抛压与AI不确定性叠加，放大股价波动
- 市场分歧：对短期现金流与长期壁垒的判断差异，导致机构与散户行为分化
综合来看，SpaceX的“高增长+高波动”将持续一段时间。若AI投入转化为稳定盈利、资本开支回归理性、解禁压力消化，波动有望收敛；否则高估值与资金消耗将继续压制估值修复，股价震荡或加剧。$SPCX A market headline that's easy to misread. 📉
Samsung and SK Hynix have seen sharp declines in recent sessions, sparking fears that the semiconductor rally may be over.
But the bigger picture tells a different story.
Goldman Sachs still expects the HBM market to roughly double next year, while SK Hynix is reportedly preparing a share buyback program to support shareholder value.
That's an interesting divergence:
• Stock prices are falling.
• Institutions remain constructive.
• The industry leader is considering a buyback.
This suggests the sell-off may be driven more by market sentiment and profit-taking than by deteriorating fundamentals.
A correction doesn't automatically mean the investment thesis is broken.
The key question isn't "Why did it fall?"—it's "What caused the decline?"
Understanding that difference is what separates emotional reactions from informed investing.
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch ——当Web3从“监管套利”走向“制度信任”，一个联邦免税的非营利架构正在成为生态长期建设的战略底座 2026年以来的Web3行业，一个肉眼可见的变化正在发生：越来越多的项目在启动阶段就把“合规架构设计”写进了核心预算。过去那种注册一个离岸壳子、放一份语焉不详的公司章程就开始融资的做法，窗口正在关闭。 美国SEC对数十家加密企业的持续执法、欧盟MiCA框架的全面生效、亚洲各司法管辖区监管框架的陆续落地——合规已从“可选项”变成了“入场券”。与此同时，贝莱德BUIDL基金规模突破25亿美元、BNB Chain的RWA TVL达30亿美元，机构资本的进场正在把“法律主体的透明度”推到尽职调查的第一顺位。 在这种背景下，CLOUD X选择了一条与大多数项目不同的路径：由一家获得美国501(c)(3)联邦免税资格的非营利基金会——硅谷数字发展基金会（Silicon Valley Digital Development Foundation）——作为发起方和合规主体。这不仅仅是一个法律实体的注册选择，它直接影响了CLOUD X的机制设计逻辑和长期治理框架。 一、501(c)(3)意味着什么？ 5Uniswap just walked into launchpad wars saying "we don't need your fees" That's a pretty big flex lmao Every launchpad has been eating off the same playbook Your coin sends, racks up millions in volume, and a chunk of that money gets siphoned away every single trade has that kind of flywheel I'd rather jump in to be part of, now the trading itself can keep juicing the token's liquidity instead of feeding another protocol The funny part? They can actually pull this off because they're already pr👋 Hello, everyone, and great trading!
💰 Bitcoin ETF: ↗️ +$241.60 million (05.08)
💰 Ethereum ETF: ↗️ +$54.60 million (05.08)
🔴 88k traders liquidated for $248 millions overnight.
🕯 Domination: 58.90% 🔥 Altseason Index: 41/100
$BTC $ETH 👋 Hello, everyone, and great trading!
💰 Bitcoin ETF: ↗️ +$241.60 million (05.08)
💰 Ethereum ETF: ↗️ +$54.60 million (05.08)
🔴 88k traders liquidated for $248 millions overnight.
🕯 Domination: 58.90% 🔥 Altseason Index: 41/100
$BTC $ETH The Coldcard incident raises an interesting question:
Who really benefits the most? 🤔
Ironically, it may not be the hackers.
Many users are migrating to hardware wallets like Ledger and Trezor, but the biggest winners could actually be centralized exchanges such as Coinbase and Binance.
As confidence in self-custody takes a hit, some Bitcoin holders may decide to move their $BTC back onto exchanges, believing it's the safer option.
The saying "Not your keys, not your coins" is absolutely true.
But if your private keys are generated by flawed or compromised code, the end result can be just as risky.
Security isn't just about holding your own keys—it's about being able to trust how those keys were created.
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch