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$BTC Iran has just announced that it will temporarily stop charging the 10% energy shipping surcharge. In simple terms, it means that after intense maritime tensions with the US, they are now easing off to leave themselves some room. So what impact does this have on the crypto world and oil prices that we care about?
Let's start with oil prices. In the short term, this is definitely good news. The Strait of Hormuz was extremely tense before, with one-third of the world's oil passing through there. When shipping costs rise, oil prices surge accordingly. Now that Iran is temporarily not charging this fee, transportation pressure eases a bit, and the upward momentum of oil prices is somewhat restrained. But note, this is only a "pause," not a "cancellation." Iran can resume charging at any time, so oil prices will still fluctuate as expected.
#Now about the crypto world. Bitcoin has recently been moving closer to gold; when geopolitical tensions rise, safe-haven funds flow in. Now that the situation has slightly cooled down, this safe-haven momentum might take a break. But don't expect Bitcoin to settle down—it’s inherently volatile. If gold stops rising, Bitcoin might turn to follow the US stock market. Its ups and downs depend entirely on market sentiment.
In summary: Iran's move is a tactical easing, not a genuine concession. Oil price pressure is temporarily relieved, and crypto safe-haven sentiment has cooled a bit, but the powder keg remains and could explode again at any time. Don't let this breather lower your guard; keep watching the market as usual.US Treasury yields have risen again
The 10-year yield almost touched 4.85%
Directly hitting a new high since November 2023
The Treasury Department was still talking about buybacks during the day
But yields didn't ease
Meanwhile, $BTC is still hovering around 78,000
The intraday high touched 79,600 then slid back
Almost lost one percent in a day
My judgment is simple
Rates are firm, risk appetite is weak
Don't take the buyback news as a signal of easing
First, watch if yields can turn around Lock in tonight at 20:30 for the decisive battle of PPI.
In the past, the market mostly focused only on CPI, with PPI often treated as a supporting role, merely reflecting cost fluctuations at the upstream factory end. But tonight's PPI carries a different weight. With current oil prices remaining high and manufacturing orders warming up, the transmission effect of upstream industrial product prices is strengthening. PPI will preemptively predict the subsequent trend of CPI and serves as a leading indicator of inflation.
PPI data directly affects market pricing of Federal Reserve rate expectations, U.S. Treasury yields across the curve, and the strength of the dollar:
If PPI exceeds expectations, it indicates rising upstream production costs, which will subsequently transmit downstream to push up consumer inflation. The market will reprice for higher rates to be maintained longer, U.S. Treasury yields will rise, and global risk assets will be drained;
If PPI falls below expectations, it means upstream cost pressures are easing, there is no risk of a secondary inflation rebound, opening space for the Fed to cut rates later, and U.S. Treasury yields will face downward pressure.
The current market has already preemptively priced in CPI's inflation resilience. PPI is used to verify whether inflation is a short-term rebound or a persistent stickiness. If PPI weakens tonight, it confirms no upstream price pressure, and CPI inflation pressure is just a short-term disturbance. Interest-free assets and the crypto market will see valuation recovery; if PPI exceeds expectations and rises, the market will worry about inflation rising again, directly suppressing the rebound in risk assets.
#PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日
#BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负 🐊 Friday’s CPI doesn’t automatically mean BTC will accelerate lower.
The market trades the expectation gap, not the headline itself.
CPI above expectations + a major repricing of the Fed’s rate path = real downside risk.
But if data is near expectations, much of the hike narrative may already be priced in.
Don’t trade the story. Wait for the data, then trade the price.
$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI同步降温 #加息分歧扩大
#OracleAdobeToday
#PPIandCPIWatch
#OutcomesOnOrbit Iran is increasingly using crypto as a trade-settlement rail.
Exporters can now use domestic exchanges and assets like $USDT and $BTC to repatriate earnings and finance imports, bypassing traditional FX channels.
The scale is significant, but there’s a key weakness: USDT is fast and dollar-linked, yet it can be frozen by its issuer. Bitcoin can’t.
That creates a bigger question:
Does crypto’s future depend more on settlement speed—or censorship resistance?
#IranCryptoTrade It seems the blond guy is also in a hurry. For the midterm elections, he's started handing out money to win votes.
Just now, Trump directly stated: If the Republican Party wins both the Senate and the House in the midterm elections, $5000 will be given to every adult American citizen, and this money must be spent within the United States. The name has already been decided—"Trump Dividend."
What does $5000 mean? For one adult, that's over 30,000 RMB. If a family of four are all adults, that's directly $20,000.
My first reaction upon seeing this news wasn't whether Americans can get the money, but—if this money really gets distributed, the market will probably start flooding with liquidity again, right? 😂
After all, such a large cash stimulus, once actually implemented, could involve a fund scale exceeding $1 trillion. Of course, this is still just Trump's campaign promise; there is no clear plan on how to raise the money or pass it through Congress yet.
$BTC At 19:38 on September 10, SOL was about $101.5, with OKX and Binance both showing a 24-hour drop of about 2.2%. The price is retreating, but on-chain funds have not withdrawn accordingly.
DeFiLlama snapshots at the same time show Solana stablecoin supply at about $16.51 billion, an increase of about $474 million or nearly 3% since September 3; DeFi TVL rose from about $5.709 billion to $5.834 billion, an increase of about 2.2%. DEX trading volume in the past 7 days was about $17.54 billion, up 4.1% from the previous 7 days, with about $3.0 billion in the last 24 hours, a daily increase of 10.7%. Solana official RPC at 19:38 recorded three 60-second samples of non-voting transactions between about 86,000 and 99,000, indicating network activity is still ongoing.
This divergence is more like "liquidity still remains on the scene" and cannot be directly translated as SOL about to rebound. Stablecoins may just be settlement or inventory waiting; the DEX volume increase may also come from short-term themes; TVL is also affected by asset prices. If the price continues to weaken later but stablecoins and TVL hold steady, it means funds still have patience; if both decline along with trading volume, that is a more complete signal of a retreat.
Would you view this $474 million increase as funds waiting to enter the market or as trading settlement inventory? If SOL continues to weaken, do you look at TVL first or DEX volume?
Personal opinion, for reference only. #SOL #Solana #OnChainDataPharaoh’s Market Watch
BTC ETFs posted $3.8B in inflows over three weeks, but the momentum quickly reversed.
On Sept. 8, ETFs recorded a $46.46M net outflow, while Sept. 1 saw a much larger $236M outflow. Despite the recent inflows, ETFs remain about $1B net negative YTD, with flows heavily concentrated in IBIT and FBTC.
This looks more like sentiment recovery than a strong, broad trend. With U.S. CPI on Sept. 11 and the FOMC on Sept. 15–16, markets may stay cautious until the data lands. Dropped 84%, looks cheap? Retail investors want to bottom-fish waiting for a rise? First, check how much money is actually on its chain!
When a coin drops 80%, the most common mistake is to judge its depth using the exchange's order book.
$CP looks normal on CEX: there are orders, trades, and candlesticks. But when you pull it onto the chain, the picture is completely different. It has 51 liquidity pools on Base, with a total liquidity of only $240,000. 51 pools, $240,000 total, averaging less than $5,000 per pool.
And 94.5% of the 24-hour trading volume is squeezed into just one pool, the remaining 50 are basically decorations.
More glaring: 10 stablecoin quote pools have prices ranging from 0.0177 to 1.766, a 99.7x difference. The same coin, at the same time, different pools quote prices with a 99x spread.
This shows $CP has no real pricing, only a bunch of shallow pools. The 24-hour trading volume is about $2.4 million, but the on-chain liquidity supporting it is only $240,000 — trading volume is 10 times the liquidity. Someone dumping $100,000 can create a visibly large pit.
Current price 0.01444, daily low 0.01412. First day 0.0885, down 83.7% in 8 trading days.
Judgment: It’s not that it has bottomed out, but that hardly anyone is playing anymore. Focus on liquidity first, don’t just stare at the candlesticks! #CLARITY法案9月15日闯关，60票成关键 9月10日加密市场整体偏弱，$BTC 在78000附近震荡，$ETH 在2450附近。大盘目前最大的变量不是某个币，而是美国通胀+美联储预期。今天PPI、明天CPI接连公布，同时10年美债收益率接近4.85%，叠加油价重新站上100美元，市场开始担心“通胀重新抬头”，这对高风险资产明显不利。
但也别过度看空：BTC技术面刚出现久违的50日线上穿200日线（金叉），且近期美股比特币ETF连续出现资金流入，说明中期资金并没有明显撤退。真正的压力位还是80000—84000区域，突破并站稳，才有机会重新打开上行空间。
ETH反而值得观察。此前10天上涨约37%后，目前处于高位整理，技术上类似旗形整理，向上突破可看3000附近；但2350—2360是重要防守位，跌破则意味着这轮结构明显转弱。
我的判断：短线别追涨，等数据落地。BTC看80000能否有效突破，ETH看2360能否守住。今晚到明天，宏观数据很可能决定下一波方向。1. Official Strike: Seizing 'Underground Taobao' and Freezing $52 Million According to the US Department of Justice's official website, its 'Anti-Fraud Center Task Force' recently took a major hit, shutting down a major illegal fraud marketplace mainly targeting China (i.e., 'Xinbi Guarantee'), and freezing up to $52 million in cryptocurrency fraud money laundering funds in a single day. This platform has long provided 'underground guarantee' services for money laundering, fake website setup, and other 'underground guarantees' for telecom fraud zones in Southeast Asia, with cases involving an astonishing scale. Stablecoin issuer Tether cooperated with global law enforcement and has judicially frozen more than 50 black market addresses involved in the case. 2. Platform "playing the victim": Outwardly condemning, but actually covering up the collapse The announcement sent to users by the "new coin" platform in Figure 1 is precisely the "crisis PR" after the seizure. The platform claims "TEDA is arbitrarily frozen" and "deposits are judicially frozen," presenting itself as a victim and urging users to "hold other stable cryptocurrencies to share the risk." In reality, this is a typical shift of blame after the black and gray industry platform's capital chain is severed—it wants users to exchange their frozen USDT (high-risk) for other, harder coins to trace (such as USDD) to transfer remaining assets and evade regulation. 3. Warning to ordinary people: Never believe in "risk-sharing" • Frozen money is black money: This USDT freeze targets addresses involved in telecom fraud and money laundering. Legitimate use is unaffected, but "dirty money" with dirty money will indeed be held accountable and frozen. • Beware of secondary harvesting: The platform calls for coin swaps, go toAfter the last PPI release, $BTC rose 26% in 8 days. That kind of market doesn't need explanation; those who held on know exactly what it feels like.
Today, the same data is coming again.
The market has already priced in high volatility expectations. Options, funding rates, order books—all are waiting for a direction.
But the truly critical question remains the simplest: how much does the actual value differ from expectations?
The macro environment is indeed different from last time. Oil prices hover around 100, US Treasury yields remain high, and rate hike expectations are still pressing down. Last time, PPI was entirely below expectations, giving the market a clear reason; this time, whether that reason still exists, no one can know in advance.
If inflation data cools down, even slightly, the shorts above BTC become ready fuel, and 80K to 82K is not far off.
If the data is hotter, 78K might be tested first, then below that lies an even thinner liquidity zone. At that point, the question isn't how much you make, but whether you can hold on.
History doesn't simply repeat itself, but human nature in betting hasn't changed.
Only this time, will a 26% rally happen again?
At the moment the data is released, no one will look away.
Inflation—this time, will it still give the bulls a reason?
#PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 Is the small bull market over?
I think it's still too early to draw conclusions now.
The crypto market has started to cool down these days, and $BTC has fallen from above $80,000 to around $78,000. Many people have already started asking: is this small bull market over?
I don't think so.
This correction has a very clear time point, which is the US CPI on September 11. The market is currently very divided on whether the Fed will raise interest rates in September. The strong non-farm payrolls earlier have pushed up rate hike expectations again, so it is normal for funds to proactively reduce risk before the CPI.
More importantly, last week the US BTC spot ETF still had nearly $987 million in net inflows, and it has been net inflows for three consecutive weeks. At least from this data, it cannot be directly defined as a full-scale capital withdrawal.
So although I have recently turned conservative and reduced leverage, I have not become bearish on the subsequent market.
It now looks more like waiting for the CPI to reprice the market, rather than confirming the end of the small bull market.
If the CPI is lower than expected and rate hike expectations cool down, the macro risks suppressing the market these days may be quickly lifted.
I still watch that level: as long as $BTC does not effectively break below $76,000, I will temporarily not change my judgment on this market.
#PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 #BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负 This round of market activity did not repeat the extreme shakeouts seen in previous cycles. On-chain data shows that among holders who entered the market after 2022, about 72%–78% of supply was in a loss, but now this proportion has started to decline significantly. This means that after stress testing, some tokens are returning to profitable territory. 👀 More importantly, this time the market doesn't seem to need to wait for over 90% of tokens to fully lose money before structural recovery has already occurred. This may indicate two things: 🐋 weak players are being cleared 💎 out, long-term holders are more 📉 willing to hold positions, selling pressure is gradually being absorbed 📈 by the market, and new supply is being taken away by stronger funds. Combined with BTC's recent repeated fluctuations in the $77K–$80K range, as well as the upcoming US CPI and Fed interest rate meetings, the upcoming price reaction will be critical. If the supply at a loss continues to decline, long-term holders keep absorbing chips, and macroeconomic pressure eases, then this adjustment may not be a signal at the top of the cycle, but could instead serve as a preliminary preparation for the next round of $BTC-level expansion. 🚀 What truly matters is not just how much the price has risen, but who is still selling and who is buying #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #OnChain #DailyOrbit #CPI #FedIn the early morning of September 10, $SOL followed the overall market downward. It dropped about two points in a day, with the price hovering just above one hundred, touching near one hundred at its lowest, and now fluctuating around one hundred and a few. To put it bluntly, the psychological barrier at one hundred is being watched closely by everyone, but no one is confident it can hold.
The real pain isn't the spot market's small drop, but the contracts. In the past day, about 142,000 people across the network were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of approximately $388 million. Among them, 70% were long positions, with about $272 million of long positions wiped out directly. Many people, crowded positions, and thin liquidity in the night session caused prices to slip slightly, triggering a chain of liquidations.
The overall market doesn't look good either. Bitcoin has been falling for several days, already close to 78,000. Ethereum has dropped below 2,500. SOL usually has active trading, but when the night session crashes, it often fluctuates more than mainstream coins. A two-point drop in the spot market doesn't look scary, but those in the contract market may have already lost their principal.
Don't be scared by the headlines. The total liquidation across the network reflects the entire market, not just SOL's account. SOL's own contract liquidations usually account for only a part of it. Oil prices are surging, interest rate expectations are tightening, risk assets are all being cut, and crypto is just following the decline.
Right now, the only thing on the market is whether the one hundred mark can hold. If it holds, the leverage washed out in the night session will be cleared first; the market may not rebound immediately afterward, but at least one layer of passive selling pressure will be removed. If it breaks, there are still stop-losses and liquidations piled up below, and volatility will increase significantly.
#财报观察员：甲骨文与Adobe今晚交卷
#PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 🇯🇵 Markets are now pricing in a 97% chance of a BOJ rate hike to 1.25%.
The yen has already jumped 3.83%, yet crypto remains resilient, with $BTC up 2.32% and $ETH gaining 4.13%.
But the bigger risk may be ahead.
A more hawkish BOJ could push the yen even higher, potentially triggering margin calls on leveraged yen-short positions and creating fresh selling pressure across $BTC and $ETH.
For crypto, the BOJ decision could become another major liquidity test. 👀
#OracleAdobeToday Currently, $BTC, $ETH, $XRP, and $DOGE are all experiencing some short-term pressure, but what is more worth watching than the price pullback is what major players are doing. On-chain data shows Bitcoin whale holdings remain around 5.1 million BTC, with no obvious signs of concentrated selling. It seems more like waiting for new macro signals. 👀 The next two points are especially important: 📅 September 11 → US CPI 📅 September 15–16 → Federal Reserve Meeting If CPI falls short of expectations and inflation eases, the market may re-bet on easing policies, giving BTC a chance to find liquidity upward. Conversely, if CPI remains hot again, the US dollar and US Treasury yields strengthen, and risk assets may face a new round of pressure. So the current whale behavior is more like: not a frenzy of selling, but waiting for confirmation. The quieter the market, the greater the volatility after the release of key data. CPI is likely to become the first trigger for the next market rally. 🔥 Don't rush to predict direction; first look at cash flows, price reactions, and whether key support is truly broken #BTC #ETH #XRP #DOGE #CPI #Fed #DailyOrbit #CryptoI even hope this mad dog zec rallies to 5000
Referencing ltc reaching a high of 130 in 2024, then oscillating widely for a year, only starting to decline at the end of last year. A very funny thing: at that time, when ltc passed through the ETF, the trading volume was only a few million daily on average, now it’s largely ignored.
The same with bch, the high point of over 600 lasted for more than a year until the real decline started on February 22nd this year, never to recover.
Why could these two trash coins stay high for a year? It’s simple: this exactly corresponds to the mining machine’s payback cycle.
These three coins share a common trait: very outdated technology but very good at storytelling. For example, bch’s story is called peer-to-peer payment.
They even give examples like South American merchants using bch for payments. This example is just too ridiculous—how do retail crypto traders in South America verify authenticity? zec is the same principle, not much different.
In short, this round of zec’s rise is due to 1~ Bitmain 2~ Grayscale (why Grayscale pushes zec like it’s on drugs? Simple, currently among altcoins held by Grayscale, only zec and hypeliquid are profitable; others like fil have crashed beyond recognition) 3~ KOLs in Europe and America who have benefited 4~ Regulatory agencies including sec and the European regulators who indirectly hype it against Quantum 5~ Hoarding miners 6~ Exchanges, likely colluding with pump-and-dump operators, seeing retail traders’ bottom cards, precisely using small amounts of funds to short the bears.
It should be said these five groups conspired to create a tulip mania scam.
Essentially, selling coins is a negative-sum game, so whose money are they making? First, retail traders who short; second, retail traders who buy the spot.
Theoretically, I think zec’s upper limit is around 1600-1800,
corresponding to an fdv of about 35 billion. Why this estimate? Luna’s peak market cap was 40 billion, and zec’s utility is probably less than luna’s. Moreover, the frenzy of Korean retail traders back then was ten times scarier than now.
zec’s business model is indeed very impressive; I think it could be written into textbooks. But the more sophisticated the internal structure, the easier it is to collapse. This is inevitable What is most worth studying about BTC now is not "how much bad news is left," but why the bad news has not yet caused the price to accelerate its breakdown.
On September 9, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $120 million; the 10-year US Treasury yield was about 4.86%, and Brent crude oil price was about $101.5. In the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidated about $389 million, of which longs accounted for $274 million.
By conventional logic, this is a set of data clearly biased toward suppression.
But BTC is still around $78,400, indicating that selling pressure has appeared but has not yet evolved into a trend of rapid decline.
The key points to watch going forward are: whether the ETF continues to have net outflows, whether US Treasury yields continue to rise, and whether PPI/CPI further raise expectations of Fed rate hikes.
If all three worsen simultaneously and BTC clearly falls below the $78,000 area, then the current "resilience" can be considered truly invalid.[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Everyone is asking Pharaoh, can BTC hold up tonight with the PPI appetizer?
Pharaoh says directly, the PPI tonight is likely to be on the hot side, but don’t panic, this is just the appetizer; tomorrow night’s CPI is the main course that will decide which way BTC will flip the table.
Why hotter? Oil prices once broke through $100, with Middle East supply disruptions pushing up energy and transportation costs. Employment data is ridiculously strong, and the Fed’s probability of a September rate hike has already hit 60%. Reuters market preview also said that high oil prices are intensifying market concerns about rising production costs. Pharaoh’s forecast is simple—PPI month-on-month +0.3% to +0.4%, core +0.2% to +0.3%. The probability of meeting or slightly exceeding expectations is 50%, significantly exceeding expectations 30%, and significantly below expectations 20%.
How will tonight’s script play out? Pharaoh leans toward “hot data → BTC first drops sharply → then recovers.” But the real direction is decided by tomorrow night’s CPI. If PPI is only slightly above expectations, the negative impact will be quickly digested; only if core PPI also significantly exceeds expectations will a sustained decline be likely.
In terms of operations, don’t heavily bet on direction before the data is released. After release, wait for the first 5-minute candle to complete—if it’s negative but doesn’t break the previous low, it’s more like a bear trap; you can wait for a pullback and then go long with a light position.
In a nutshell: PPI is the appetizer, CPI is the main course. The probability of negative impact tonight is slightly higher, but don’t rush to flip the table; wait for the main dish to be served tomorrow night. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 #财报观察员：甲骨文与Adobe今晚交卷
Oracle and Adobe report earnings tonight, can the AI story really turn into money?
After the U.S. stock market closes tonight, Oracle and $ADBE will release their earnings together. These two companies represent two different segments of the AI industry chain—Oracle focuses on AI infrastructure, while Adobe develops AI application tools. The market is not looking at how well they "tell the AI story," but rather whether AI can truly turn into real money.
Oracle currently holds $638 billion in remaining performance obligations, which is a large number, but the market cares not about "how many contracts are signed," but how quickly these contracts can convert into revenue, and whether the money spent on data center expansion can be covered by new revenue. Morgan Stanley has previously lowered its price target but still maintains an "outperform" rating, indicating no doubt about demand on the market side; the real concern lies in capital efficiency.
Adobe's situation is more subtle. The key is how much incremental subscription revenue AI products like Firefly and GenStudio have actually brought. Its subscription model and profit margins have always been stable, but whether AI can create another growth curve will determine if the market is willing to give it a higher valuation.
The two earnings reports simultaneously test one thing: whether AI investments are truly converting into revenue and cash flow, or if they remain stuck in a phase of high capital expenditure. Tonight, the numbers will speak. The leaders are waiting for the shot, two branches of relatives each minding their own business
One patriarch with two distant branches of relatives, tonight they are living three different lives.
$BTC is hovering around 78,200, down about 1% in 24 hours, the box between 77,600 and 80,000 remains completely still; OKB has fallen back to around 113 USD, the rebound from a few days ago is slowly being paid back; $BCH is around 256 USD, flat like a horizontal line.
Three rhythms, three logics. BTC is waiting for tonight's PPI and tomorrow night's CPI, volume shrinks and price moves sideways; OKB is a platform token, naturally following risk appetite, it retreats first when the market hesitates; BCH has thin liquidity and no new stories, so it neither falls nor rises, becoming the quietest one.
If the data is weak, BTC will first test 80,000, OKB has greater elasticity than $BCH and reacts faster; if the data is strong, BTC will retest 77,000, OKB will dip even deeper, and BCH will still be that cup of warm water.
Before choosing a direction, no matter how many relatives there are, everyone just sweeps their own doorstep.
#BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负
#伊朗允许BTC与USDT外贸结算 #CLARITYActSept15 Crypto's next US regulatory test comes down to 60 votes 👀
CLARITY already passed the House 294-134, but Republicans need at least 7 crossovers in the Senate. Stablecoin rewards, DeFi liability and conflict rules remain sticking points.
What caught my attention is prediction markets pricing passage near just 40%.
If it clears, the SEC/CFTC divide and token classification finally move closer to law.$BTC The overall market trend is downward; will the Clear Act vote still pass smoothly?
Recently, the crypto market has been waiting for a very important answer: whether the Clear Act vote on September 15 will really pass.
Outside the financial sector, it is a relatively ordinary bill, but for the crypto community, it affects the regulatory boundaries of the U.S. digital asset industry for the next few years.
Although the market has already priced in the expected effects of the Clear Act, the game is far from over. Actually, whether the Clear Act passes or not, there won't be much volatility for the mainstream; only altcoins might rise.
In other words, there are too many events happening in September. The market is not lacking liquidity; rather, too much capital has not yet placed bets because there are too many variables that can influence the direction. The Clear Act is not the engine of a bull market but the gateway for marginal traditional financial funds to enter the crypto market.
The Clear Act has no qualification to decide a bull market. What truly ignites a bull market is whether interest rates can be cut. If passed, it releases incremental funds and market confidence from institutional compliance entry, acting as a catalyst for the rise. If not passed, the crypto market can still complete its basic cycle relying on its own cycles, halving logic, and interest rate cut expectations.
To put it nicely, September might be a rare starting point for a bull market takeoff, or it could just as easily be a precipitous cliff. What we ordinary traders can do is go with the flow and follow the market trend #伊朗允许BTC与USDT外贸结算 Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $79.2K, with the latest data showing a net outflow of about $165M from spot BTC ETFs in the past 24 hours. This is worth noting. Previously, ETFs continued to absorb spot supply, which was one of the key supports for BTC's resilience at high levels. Now that capital flows have weakened, if institutional selling pressure continues to increase, and while PPI, CPI, and Fed rate cut expectations continue to affect risk assets, BTC's short-term structure may face greater pressure. 👀 📉 $77K is the defensive zone I will focus on next. If ETF net inflows can hold and reappear→ bulls still have a chance to launch a counterattack. If capital outflows continue and key support is broken→ the market may enter a deeper cooling phase. Now is not the time to focus solely on price movements; ETF capital flows + macro data + trading volume are the key to judging the next direction. Bulls need to quickly absorb this supply wave, or else the high-level consolidation may turn into a more pronounced pullback ⚠️ #BTC #BitcoinETF #PPIandCPIWatch #OracleAdobeToday #OutcomesOnOrbit #DailyOrbitCurrent state of the crypto market (9/10): BTC 78.2k, ETH 2465, the 80k level repeatedly tested but unbroken, then retreated to retest support, 24h liquidation over 150 million in a long-short double kill.
Macro pressure: PPI/CPI announced tonight and tomorrow, 9/16 rate hike probability 60%, 10Y US Treasury at 4.84%, oil price breaks 100, risk appetite contracts.
Capital flow split: ETF net inflow about 3.8 billion over three weeks to support the market, but single-day outflow of 46.65 million on 9/8, price stagnation with profit-taking.
HYPE at 84–86, 9/6 unlock of 9.92M did not crash the market, buyback and burn + OI at 14.3B record high, strong but crowded.
Summary: 78k defense battle + data silence before release, neither bottom nor top, waiting for CPI + rate decision flip. BTC ETH $HYPE $2465 ETH, can you hold on?
First, look at the surface: three weeks of narrow consolidation, retail investors are breaking down.
Since the rebound in August, ETH has been grinding back and forth in the narrow corridor between 2430-2540. The 24-hour price change is so small you could fall asleep watching the chart, volume is shrinking, group chats are quiet, and no one is discussing ETH on Twitter. You start to doubt: is this really over for it?
First thing: ETFs are quietly buying, but you’re just watching the price and complaining.
The US spot ETH ETF had a net inflow of 34.75 million yesterday, with BlackRock’s staking product contributing the most, reversing the outflow from the previous day.
Institutions aren’t here for short-term speculation; they’re here to accumulate.
ETH treasury companies like BitMine hold nearly 5% of circulating supply.
Staking queues show demand to join, with almost zero exits—no one wants to sell.
Second thing: Ethereum is preparing a big move, you’re just impatient.
Vitalik just proposed EIP-8288, targeting quantum resistance + privacy transactions. The Glamsterdam upgrade aims for Q4 mainnet, focusing on L1 scaling, parallel execution, and ePBS. SGX got CFTC approval, allowing US institutions to trade ETH perpetuals directly.
Ethereum is quietly becoming an institutional-grade settlement layer.
Quantum resistance + privacy + scaling, playing all three cards together.
Traditional capital channels are opening, incremental funds are on the way.
Third thing: The technicals have reached a moment where a choice must be made.
Three weeks of consolidation, price compressed between 2430-2540. RSI neutral, MACD flat, volume shrinking—this is a classic "eve of directional choice."
A weekly close above 2550 opens the 2800-3000 space. Falling below 2350 resets everything.
Key levels:
Support: 2460-2470 (current), 2435-2445, 2350-2360 (structural support)
Resistance: 2520-2535 (multiple rejections), 2550 (make-or-break line)
Bull vs. bear, you decide.
On one side:
ETF inflows continue, institutional allocations ongoing
BitMine holdings near 5%, staking exits near zero
Glamsterdam upgrade expected in Q4
50/200 EMA golden cross, mid-term structure intact
On the other side:
BTC pressured at 78k, market unstable
High oil prices, rising rate hike expectations
Friday CPI + next week’s FOMC, two bombs
2550 rejected three times, huge psychological pressure
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Use 2460-2470 as pivot for range trading. Hold 2460 and lightly go long, stop loss below 2435, target 2520-2535. Break below 2430 turns bearish, target 2350. Break and hold above 2550 to chase longs, target 2600-2700.
Swing traders:
If macro doesn’t worsen and ETF inflows continue, current consolidation is healthy digestion after August’s rally. Add positions after breaking 2550, target 2800-3000. If invalid break below 2350, reassess, possibly retesting 2200.
Long-term believers:
DCA below 2460. ETH is the core settlement layer for smart contracts, L2, stablecoins, and RWA, with staking yields + deflation + application narratives attractive to institutions. Target 3000-3500 by end of 2026.
ETH now is like Bitcoin in 2020—
99% thought "too big to move," but after ETF approval, it went straight from 40k to 70k.
The day 2550 breaks, you’ll realize:
It’s not that Ethereum is failing, it’s that you couldn’t endure three weeks of sideways.
At 2465, are you still on board?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $LAPTOP sequel: On one side, about 80% of wallets are losing money, while on the other, a "mysterious wallet" made about $930,000 in minutes.
Public follow-up: About $250,000 opened a position → about $1.18 million sold; on the other side, about $200,000 was dumped near the peak, shrinking to about $3,000 within an hour. The project team says the founder's share is locked, blames snipers and thin liquidity; after Foundation X's account was suspended, they switched to Medium.
Judgment: No practical meme + extremely thin pool, price is determined by front-running. Most people are not trading the narrative, they are acting as counterparties for the front runners.
Focus: Whether pool incentives will be deepened on-chain, whether pre-launch transfers will continue, and the popularity of copycat projects. No trading calls.
Vote: More like a front-running textbook / celebrity endorsements invalid / watch only, no touch
#LAPTOP #Memecoin #CryptoI think the key reason Hynix is leading this rally is that the market is starting to believe: this storage boom might last longer than before. The shipment of HBM4, long-term contracts with customers, and institutions' judgment that supply and demand will remain tight through 2027 have made investors willing to price in higher future profits. The rating upgrades and share repurchase and cancellation plans have also added catalysts for Hynix.
Micron and SanDisk have recently followed the sector's strength, but their underlying logic differs. Hynix, with the advantage of HBM4 mass production and locked-in contracts with over 7x growth, combined with ADR repurchase expectations, has the strongest momentum to lead the rally; Micron's HBM3E penetration is accelerating, and if HBM4 deliveries go smoothly later, there is still room for valuation recovery; SanDisk focuses on pure NAND and enterprise SSDs, benefiting from AI storage expansion, but after a significant rise following its recent spin-off, it now relies more on NAND price increases to realize gains, with a high probability of valuation being digested amid volatility in the short term.
Overall, the logic of the storage super cycle remains unchanged, with DRAM and HBM supply-demand gaps persisting before 2027. But current macro variables cannot be ignored: recent widening of PPI year-on-year, potential fluctuations in core inflation, combined with high and volatile interest rates, inevitably put pressure on tech growth stock valuations. Correctly reading industry trends is a prerequisite, but under high volatility, controlling position sizes and seizing pullback buying opportunities are more important than chasing highs.
#财报观察员：甲骨文与Adobe今晚交卷 #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 The proportion of Meme locked stock tokens seems to be a reference indicator for selecting coin-stock targets in a bear market.
Taking the Meme coin-stock pair launcher Long on Robinhood Chain as an example:
- Long's largest market cap coin-stock AI locks 13.1% of NVDA stock tokens, valued at nearly $2.5 million.
- MOO locks 23.6% of MU Micron stock tokens, valued at nearly $1.2 million.
- MEME locks 24.2% of AMC stock tokens, valued at nearly $1.2 million.
These are the only three Meme coin-stocks in the Long launcher that lock stock values exceeding one million dollars.
Additionally, BONER locks 28.5% of HIMIS stock tokens; although its value is less than one million dollars, it has the highest proportion of locked stock tokens.
In theory, the issuance scale of stock tokens will gradually increase, and the coin-stock lock ratio will continuously change. Attention should also be paid to the scale of stock tokens on the pairing side and who holds the issuance/burning rights.
At present, the total market capitalization of stock tokenization on Robinhood Chain is still very small, only about $150 million.On September 10, after Bitcoin BTC took down 1500U from the 79500 short position yesterday, how should the US market operate next? $BTC
The European session shows shrinking volume with consecutive hourly bearish candles, breaking below yesterday's low of 77700, which clearly indicates the US session will continue the downward trend.
Direct strategy:
Focus on the resistance to continue shorting, with resistance at 78600-78900. Any rebound is an opportunity to sell high!
Key support below is at 76100; a valid break below targets strong support at 72000 and firm support at 70000. These are all positions to buy low and expect a rise!
Brother Chuan's pre-market script is ready, everyone is welcome to verify!
#PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 #财报观察员：甲骨文与Adobe今晚交卷 Information analysis: Oil prices today are not only watching the Middle East; the real test will be the inventory data at midnight
In the $CL EIA September outlook, global inventories are predicted to decrease by about 400 million barrels this year, and Brent is expected to be around $90 in the second half of the year, all under specific scenarios. The first weekly inventory data will be released at midnight Beijing time on September 11. Bulls should not rush to use forecasts as leverage; only actual inventory draws will sustain oil prices. Even the most compelling narratives will deflate if inventory builds occur. #布油重返100美元，特朗普称选后将下跌 The supply reset is already happening.
The 2022+ cohort hit roughly 80–85% in loss and is now turning back up.
We didn't need the same 95%+ capitulation seen in previous cycles.
stronger hands are holding.
If this trend continues, this could be the start of the next major $BTC expansion.$BTC bulls look like they’re still loading the next move. 👀
Bitcoin is holding around $78K, while the golden cross keeps the broader structure constructive.
The key battle remains $80K–$84K.
Reclaim that zone with strong volume → $90K starts looking much more interesting.
But macro can’t be ignored. Rising oil prices and Treasury yields could keep pressure on risk assets.
For me, $77K is the line in the sand.
Above $77K → bullish bias.
Reclaim $80K → next leg could ignite. Information Analysis: SOL is lowering storage thresholds, but the short term hasn't yet received applause
$SOL SIMD-0437 Step one is live, step two is expected to enter the mainnet in mid-September, the full 90% reduction will wait for Agave 4.4, officially expected in November. The change is to the account storage deposit, not a major reduction in all fees. The story can be told slowly; don't chase based on an upgrade schedule in the short term, as the rollout pace changes, so will sentiment.
#加密财库分化：买币还是回购？ Before a real correction occurs, I actually prefer to see an additional rally: continued rise→ market confidence strengthens → FOMO returns→ bulls gradually lower their guard, → and finally a rapid shakeout. Currently, BTC is fluctuating around $78K, having previously broken above $81K; Meanwhile, BTC ETFs recorded about $987M net inflows in the week ending September 4, with a cumulative inflow of about $3.8B over the past three weeks, indicating that capital sentiment still holds support for now. But the macro environment is not easy. Crude oil has climbed back above $100, US Treasury yields are rising, and US PPI and CPI data are about to be released. Inflation and Fed policy expectations may become important sources of volatility in the next phase. If a final rally does occur, I will focus on these potential defensive zones: 🟠 $BTC → $73K 🟣 $ZEC → $820 🔵 $ETH → $2,380 🟢 $SOL → $92 ⚫ $HYPE → $76. These levels are not predictions where a drop will definitely occur, but rather reference areas I use to judge whether market structure has clearly weakened. A rally does not mean safety, and strength does not mean risk disappears. I focus more on price structure, trading volume, and reactions after macro data, rather than chasing every green candlestick. Stay patient and flexible, preparing for both directions #BTC #ETH #SOL #ZEC Hunter Biden's coin launch failed, with LAPTOP crashing 99% right after launch, and Eric Trump immediately came to add insult to injury—"Hunter Biden should go back to painting."
This spat is quite interesting. The Trump family is making a fortune with $TRUMP and $WLFI while mocking Hunter's coin failure. But the problem is, Hunter's coin crashed right after launch, and although Trump's $TRUMP hasn't gone to zero, 98% of buyers still lost $3.8 billion.
So in the end, the outcomes of both coin launches are pretty much the same—the issuers made money, the buyers lost money.
Eric is laughing happily, but the holders of his family's coin probably aren't laughing.
#LAPTOP首发跌近99%，Meme市场争议升温 The AI crypto sector has changed
Last year, just having AI in the name meant a price surge; this year, machines need computing power, network, and to pay for themselves
Trading is still hot, but projects that can consistently generate protocol revenue can be counted on one hand
I view it in three layers
◇
Shovel layer
DePIN.GPU's Render, Akash, io.net, Aethir, and wireless Helium. Infrastructure with enterprise clients and revenue; those relying solely on mining emissions are still just concepts
Smart market layer
Bittensor (TAO). Subnets produce inference and data, paid for externally, not just renting GPUs. Very few can generate tens of millions of dollars in quarterly service fees
Agent payment layer
Agents hold wallets to buy APIs and GPUs with stablecoins; the real activity is on the payment track (x402, USDC micropayments). Transaction counts can reach hundreds of millions, but that is settlement volume, not token profit.
► Three questions filter out most projects: Are the payers AI companies or insiders gaming incentives? Is the income stablecoins or just circulating points? When usage increases, will tokens be locked and burned or just treated as narrative tokens?
◇
In 2026, focus on computing power networks, wireless networks, payment rails, and a few model markets with external clients. Most AI Agent tokens have active trading but thin revenue. Sector hype does not mean every token is worth that price
Personal judgment, not investment advice; data based on official project sources. $TAO Funding situation
ETFs saw a net outflow of $120 million yesterday, with ARKB alone experiencing an outflow of $77.98 million. The good days of about $3.8 billion inflow over the past three weeks have temporarily ended.
There is a noteworthy on-chain signal: a whale holding $461.5 million in BTC for nearly two years has transferred about $82 million BTC to Kraken since August. Although $418 million remains untouched, this "two-year-old position starting to loosen" move is worth watching.
But the fundamental issue lies in spot demand: 24-hour futures trading volume is about $61.6 billion, while spot is only about $4 billion, making futures 15.4 times the spot volume. This rebound from 62,000 to 82,000 was mainly driven by derivatives; spot buying did not keep pace. If leveraged funds start to withdraw, the breakout can easily reverse $BTC $ETH $ZEC #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 Crypto News: The $100 Million ZEC Headline Is Hot, But The Truth Is Not That Simple
$ZEC SEC filings show that on September 8, DCG exchanged 85,705.32563297 ZEC for about $100 million worth of ETF shares. This is not a secondary market sweep, nor can it be directly counted as continuous inflow. The news looks easy to get excited about, but what really needs attention is whether there is real buying following behind it; don’t mistake the redemption structure for a big holder increasing their position. #ZEC跻身前十，机构化进程提速 Yesterday, the daily purchase limit of 20,000 yuan for the Nasdaq 100 fund available to tens of thousands of investors was only open for one day before being tightened to 100 yuan per day.
Today, the daily purchase limit for the Guangfa Nasdaq 100 Fund A/C classes was reduced from 5 yuan to 2 yuan, and the F class from 100 yuan to 30 yuan. Two yuan can only buy a cone at Mixue or a roll of trash bags on Pinduoduo. Now, it has become the daily subscription limit for a fund. Truly surprising.
Even more surreal is the market comparison: Southern Global Select Allocation Stock (QDII-FOF) has a daily purchase limit of 1 million yuan, while Southern Nasdaq 100 Index Initiated (QDII) is only 10 yuan per day;
Huitianfu Global Medical Mixed (QDII) RMB daily limit is 200,000 yuan, while Huitianfu Nasdaq 100 ETF Initiated Connection (QDII) is only 10 yuan per day.
On one side, active QDII funds have quotas but investors are reluctant to buy; on the other, passive Nasdaq index funds are desired by investors but have no quota. Why? QDII quotas are scarce. Active QDII fees are generally 1.2% per year, while passive QDII fees are about 0.5%-0.8% per year.
With the same quota, active funds can collect more management fees. Fund companies want to make money, which is understandable; and it’s not a problem under regulatory frameworks. But when investors prefer low-fee, transparent passive indexes, yet quotas favor active funds, a supply-demand mismatch occurs.
This is not simply about "who is right or wrong," but a problem of system design: how to allocate quotas? Can it be more transparent? Can it better accommodate investor needs? How to avoid high premiums on the secondary market?
It’s not that Nasdaq can’t be allocated, but don’t get carried away with purchase limits and premiums. Exchange rates, overseas markets, premium declines, and tracking errors are all risks. The market needs better answers.BTC was still around 78,100 in the afternoon, but the funding rate rose again to 0.0074%. The leverage cooldown from the morning only lasted half a day.
At 16:56, OKX spot BTC was about $78,122, less than $400 above the intraday low of $77,764. The price is close to the low, yet the number of people willing to pay to go long has increased again, indicating that bottom-fishing funds have first leveraged up, but the spot confirmation has not yet caught up. This combination continues to exist, and even if a rebound occurs, it is likely to encounter selling pressure around 78,700.
I am currently not moving my core BTC spot holdings, continuing not to add to the small coin positions held since the morning, and not chasing shorts near the lows. If BTC hits $77,760 again and the funding rate remains above 0.007%, I will add some high-elasticity positions; this defensive judgment only fails if it first recovers above 78,700 and the funding rate drops below 0.005%.
Data: OKX. Personal record, not investment advice. $BTC Why do Goldman Sachs, Sequoia Capital, and Bridgewater all agree that ChatGPT and Anthropic have entered their final frenzy? What kind of major frenzy is hidden in the seemingly booming AI industry? Do Microsoft and Google, which seem to have little debt, really have healthy finances? If you are following US stocks or planning to invest in them, I highly recommend reading this article carefully! If you don't have time to read it yet, remember to like and bookmark it. $16,500—if all converted into $100 cash linked end-to-end, it could circle the Earth's equator 64 times. This was originally a dizzying astronomical figure, but now, it roughly represents the total public and hidden bond issuance of the five major core US data centers. To be honest, this amount is so large that even their own financial reports feel embarrassed to write it out directly. The Bank for International Settlements has given this kind of legal game a tune called shadow lending. Today, let's break this veil and see how the so-called large cloud giants use this trick to hide sky-high debts and create a seemingly clean balance sheet. Many friends who usually watch candlesticks and study fundamentals always think that giants like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Oracle are the most powerful money printers on the planet. For a long time, they had so much cash on hand that they simply couldn't spend it all, and a large portion of the money was spent on buying back their own shares. But if you look at the quarterly buyback data from these five giants from 2021 to now, you'll find a very clear plunge curve. Frankly,$SNDK: Storage sector strong, beware of early exhaustion of positive news
The storage sector has recently led the semiconductor industry, but $SNDK has shown signs of capital taking profits internally. Meanwhile, the US August PPI will be released at 8:30 tonight, a key inflation data point before the Fed's September meeting. If the data exceeds expectations, the rate hike expectations will rise, which will suppress tech stocks and may impact the storage sector.
The fundamentals remain strong, with robust AI data center demand and storage revenue accounting for over 50%. Citibank and JPMorgan have set target prices of $2100 and $2250 respectively, believing that NAND supply and demand tightness will not improve in the short term.
However, market risk signals are worth noting: Kioxia's CEO stated that the price increase is sufficient and halted significant price hikes for major customers; several senior executives sold shares in early September, cashing out over $11 million.
The industrial logic of AI storage remains unchanged, but the short-term rally has already priced in positive expectations, and the price increase slope is slowing. Holders are advised to take profits in batches on rallies; observers should wait for valuation digestion and support stabilization before considering entry. If tonight's PPI boosts rate hike expectations, it may trigger a short-term pullback and can be used as an observation window.To be honest, the market has been grinding so much these past two days it's putting people to sleep, but despite the grind, some signals are becoming clearer the more I watch. BTC has dropped for four consecutive days, but the total drop over those four days is just a bit over 1%. Every time it dips down, someone immediately buys in — this means it can't fall further, it's not about to crash. The most interesting thing is the market dominance, which has risen to 58.92%, a recent high. What does that mean? The money hasn't left the market; it's just moved out of altcoins and into Bitcoin. Look at UNI and ARB, both dropped over 10% in a day — it's not that the market is out of money, it's just that money is shifting seats, all crowding into the leader. Plus, ETFs have had net inflows for three consecutive weeks, and the liquidation scale shrank from 1.68 billion yesterday to 250 million today — the leverage that needed to be cleared has mostly been cleared. So my judgment in one sentence: 78,000 is a bottoming grind, not a breakdown, and I'm bullish. As long as tonight's PPI and tomorrow's CPI don't blow up, and the probability of a rate hike goes down, 80,000 will most likely be tested again. Of course, if 78,000 really gets decisively broken with volume, I won't be stubborn: the next supports are 77,600 and then 76,000, and at that point, any good news will have to wait. I've already taken my position on the direction; the rest is up to everyone to weigh for themselves. #PPI, CPI Released Consecutively, Fed Faces Critical Two Days
After the non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, the market's rate hike probability has risen to nearly 60%. PPI represents wholesale price levels and can forecast inflation trends in advance; CPI is the Fed's most valued consumer-side indicator, with core CPI being the key focus. Overall CPI is influenced by oil prices and has limited reference value.
Two scenario simulations:
1. Inflation higher than expected: strengthens rate hike expectations, US Treasury yields rise, risk assets come under pressure, $BTC and $ETH are prone to sharp spikes;
2. Inflation lower than expected: rate hike expectations cool down, liquidity expectations improve, boosting sentiment in the crypto market;
3. Data meets expectations: market volatility will be relatively limited, and the market will return to technical analysis.
Personal view: Inflation data is a short-term catalyst, not the whole story of the market.
1. Data releases often trigger "buy the rumor, sell the fact"; do not impulsively open positions just because of the data. News-driven volatility is high, and spike risks are extreme.
2. Even if inflation cools, it does not mean immediate rate cuts, only easing of rate hike pressure; rising inflation does not mean a sustained one-way sharp decline.
3. The crypto market is also influenced by ETF funds, the CLARITY Act vote, geopolitical conflicts, and multiple other variables; macro factors are just one part.
Before and after data releases, contracts must reduce leverage and avoid high-risk heavy positions as much as possible. Spot trading should not rely solely on inflation news to bottom-fish; wait for market stabilization before making judgments. Focus on core CPI, US Treasury yields, and key BTC support and resistance levels. Patrick gave NVIDIA an over-spec price with a target price of 300, while Intel and Qualcomm were neutral. When these three names are put together, the attitude is quite obvious.
My first reaction was to check my own account and find I couldn't hold onto any of them, so I could only read research reports for fun.
Calming down, this coverage really changes not the stock price, but the reference point for newcomers like me: I used to only watch candlesticks, but now I know institutions are looking at expectations gaps.
The 300 doesn't mean it will arrive tomorrow; it's just the valuation cap Patrick is willing to offer, and deliveries depend on quarterly performance.
I tend to believe that funds will be more selectively concentrated on AI computing power, and Intel and Qualcomm will first prove they can get a share of the pie.
#OpenAI联手三星研发下一代AI芯片
#OpenAI与Anthropic筹备信用评级 $NVDA SOPH Online for 28 Hours: From 0.0054 to 0.0042
SOPH was listed on OKX with X-Perp on September 9th at 4 PM.
Four hours after listing, the SWAP price reached 0.0054.
After 28 hours, the current price is 0.0042.
A 24-hour drop of -22%, wiping out all gains since listing.
This is not just SOPH's story. USELESS, which was listed the same day, dropped -21.5% in 24 hours. X-Perp just opened today at 16:15, and the SWAP price has already crashed from a high of 0.33 to 0.25. PONS fell even harder by -27%.
New coin listing → community hype → price surge → X-Perp opens → liquidity pulled → price crash. This cycle has repeated three times on OKX this week.
This is not a fundamental collapse, but a mean reversion of listing sentiment. Market makers pump the price before listing to create momentum, then cash out after X-Perp opens, directly worsening the token distribution.
Now the question is: Is SOPH at 0.0042 the bottom of this wave, or the launchpad for the next crash?
Which types of newly listed coins' X-Perp do you think are most vulnerable to this?
Risk Warning: This article does not constitute investment advice. $SOPH $SNDK Sandisk made gains yesterday, so what’s the plan for Sandisk today? 🤔🤔
First, let’s talk about our short position on Sandisk last night. Although it wasn’t perfect, we managed to secure it without any major issues! 🔥
Yesterday, Haitang’s strategy was very clear: short near 1770, add more short positions above 1800.
As soon as the US market opened, SNDK indeed surged, reaching a high of 1806.47. That level again, really something 😂
The resistance around 1810 is still very obvious; multiple attempts failed to break through.
Our add-on order placed in advance at 1800 was successfully filled, and I don’t need to say much about what happened next.
If it can’t break above 1800, it can only go down.
Then SNDK started to fall steadily, hitting a low near 1738. We entered at 1770, added at 1800, with an average cost above 1780. This drop straight down to the 1730s yielded quite a good profit!
Today’s strategy remains unchanged.
For the aggressive, you can start with a base position at the current level of 1755, and continue shorting above 1800; for the more cautious, be patient and place short orders around 1780.
The target remains the same as yesterday’s: 1730-1700.
$DOGE $TRUMP #伊朗允许BTC与USDT外贸结算 #OpenAI联手三星研发下一代AI芯片 This BTC trade has gone from floating profit back to floating loss. The long position opened at 78,840 is still held; at the time of the screenshot, the contract's return rate was -132.28%, and the take-profit at 82,000 hasn't moved. I have to admit I didn't lock in profits earlier. 🥲
Originally, I was long, targeting a rebound opportunity after ETF buying flows returned. According to Farside data, from August 31 to September 4, the US Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of about $987 million. This capital inflow is one of the reasons I was optimistic, not just a simple "it should rise because it fell" assumption.
But the latest situation must be updated: on September 8 and 9, there was a net outflow of about $167 million. So now I can only say there was significant buying earlier, but I can't continue to claim institutions are adding positions daily. What I need to wait for is buying to reconnect, not to explain today's drop by last week's positive news.
There are two upcoming variables: the US PPI and CPI will be released at 20:30 Beijing time on September 10 and 11, respectively. My bullish expectation is that if inflation data is milder than expected and ETF funds turn back to net inflow, it could add some confidence to the rebound. But this is a condition to be verified, not a benefit that has already occurred.
Regarding price, I will first observe if 78,000 can hold again, then look near the 78,840 cost. These are just observation points for this trade, not ironclad bottoms. First, recover the lost ground, then talk about 80,000 and 82,000; if the rebound fails to hold and prices continue downward, risk reduction should come first.