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$BTC
First signs of weakness.
So far, this rally was driven by spot buying.
This, however, has now changed.
Spot CVD is declining while perps are pushing price higher.
This makes the move less sustainable and more vulnerable to leverage flushes.
We might see a pullback soon.Tonight, Federal Reserve Chair Wash will speak at the Jackson Hole annual meeting. $SOL is very likely to experience a significant wave of volatility, with the direction depending on the hawkish or dovish tone of the speech.
Currently, the market environment is not favorable for crypto assets: US July PCE inflation reached 3.7%, well above the 2% target. The market's expectation for a rate hike in September has risen to about 44%, US long-term Treasury yields remain high, and the dollar is relatively strong. Against this backdrop, it is difficult for Wash to send dovish signals.
Scenario analysis: If the speech is hawkish, clearly setting conditions for rate hikes, the rising rate hike expectations will suppress liquidity. SOL, being highly elastic with many leveraged positions, often falls more than Bitcoin, possibly experiencing a deep correction or even a chain of liquidations; if the speech is neutral, providing no clear guidance, the market may see a slight rebound as the "boot drops," but SOL will likely maintain high-level volatility; if unexpectedly dovish, implying the end of the rate hike cycle, risk assets will generally benefit, and SOL may see a rapid surge.
My judgment is that a neutral to slightly hawkish tone is most probable. Since taking office, Wash has deliberately downplayed forward guidance, and with inflation high, it is difficult to expect easing statements. For SOL, tonight's volatility risk far outweighs directional opportunities. Short-term chasing of highs carries considerable risk, and the medium to long-term trend still depends on the September meeting and subsequent inflation data. The above is only an analysis based on public information and does not constitute investment advice. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Divergence in whale token behavior: BTC stock locked up, ETH staking unlocking tokens continues to compete
On-chain data shows that $BTC long-term dormant tokens remain high, prices rebound, and the old whale has not transferred large-scale shares to exchanges. The tokens are highly locked in, and most selling pressure comes from external macro shocks, resulting in passive selling.
$ETH is another token story: on one hand, some institutions buy large amounts and stake them directly for long-term allocation; On the other hand, staking unlocks a continuous stream of circulating tokens. Whenever the market surges, tokens flow to exchanges waiting for wave realization.
In other words, much of ETH's selling comes from active take-profit from internal chips.
This explains a market phenomenon: the market hasn't dropped sharply, BTC is moving sideways, and ETH can still weaken on its own. BTC is playing on external macro trends; ETH not only watches the market but also continuously digests internal swing cash-out chips.
On the trading side, you can't directly apply BTC's position logic to ETH. BTC pullbacks are more about macro turning points; Even if ETH isn't macro negative, a large amount of internal chips can still suppress upside potential#Meta巨额和解后股价走高, risk pricing revaluation
This is quite an interesting matter.
Meta spent $18 billion to settle, but its stock price actually rose by 4 points.
Sounds twisted, right? But that's just how the market works. It's not that you spend money, but that you never know how much you'll spend. 18 billion may be a lot, but at least it's a fixed number. Once the mine is destroyed, the uncertainty disappears, and the stock price can catch its breath.
Money isn't emptied overnight. Most of it is paid in installments; in Q3, 10 billion is set aside first, and the rest is taken slowly. Meta's annual revenue is over 140 billion, with 18 billion just a fraction. If the accounts are balanced, the market thinks it's okay.
This scenario has been seen too many times in the crypto world. A project is suppressed by regulators, and the price of the coin just won't recover. When the settlement is finalized and the fines are announced, as long as the company isn't hollowed out, the market often treats it as bad news and speculates. When Binance settled for 4.3 billion, BNB followed the same path.
Let me share my thoughts. 18 billion is certainly not a small number, but Meta's scale can handle it. It has already passed the stage of "whether it can survive" and has reached the stage of "spending money to buy certainty." The market understands this logic: as long as you can quantify risk and clearly calculate the impact, it will reprice you.
For those projects still under regulatory shadow in the crypto world, Meta's case serves as a mirror—the market fears "not knowing the truth," not "how much money." As long as you do the math, the market will naturally give you the answer.
$BTC $ETH $SOL [Pharaoh Market Watch]
StarkWare just made something big on the Bitcoin mainnet—at 20:48 UTC on August 26, block 964199, a transaction merging 39,179 satoshis and 10,000 satoshis to make 44,000 satoshis was mined by MARA Pool, with a fee of 5,179 satoshis. This was not an ordinary transfer; it was the first quantum-resistant transaction in Bitcoin's history.
This thing is called QSB (Quantum Safe Bitcoin). The principle is simple: replace Bitcoin's current elliptic curve signature (which quantum computers can crack in minutes using the Shor algorithm) with hash function signatures. The Shor algorithm is useless against hashing; in other words, it adds a second lock to Bitcoin transactions—a lock that quantum computers can't open.
The price is high — $75 to $150 per transaction, processing time several hours, using non-standard formats, and requiring a dedicated channel for miners like MARA Slipstream to broadcast. QSB does not protect addresses whose public keys have already been exposed, only the coins transferred into this mechanism.
In the long run, soft forks are still the optimal solution, but QSB proves: without waiting for protocol upgrades, you can now lock over seven figures in a quantum-resistant vault for just a few hundred dollars. Quantum computers haven't arrived yet, but the locks have already been replaced. $BTC $ETH $SOL #StarkWare在BTC主网发首笔量子安全交易 Is the Fed really the big BOSS tonight?
Last night, $NVDA's earnings report directly ignited the AI momentum. Tech stocks were finally ready for a good run, but tonight Fed Chair Warsh is set to speak. The market's biggest dilemma now isn't whether to cut rates, but whether the next step will be a rate hike?
July's PCE year-over-year has already surged to 3.7%, showing inflation is clearly not dead yet. The market now prices about a 35% chance of a rate hike in September, and some are even betting on a full hike before the end of the year. What's more troublesome is that the 10-year US Treasury yield remains above 4.6%, and the 30-year yield is approaching around 5.2%.
So what Warsh says tonight is very important.
If he continues to emphasize stubborn inflation and the possibility of rates moving higher, then the high-valuation tech stocks like $NVDA and $AVGO, just ignited by Nvidia last night, will likely have to watch the US Treasury yields closely, and $BTC and gold could also experience volatility together.
But if Warsh is not as hawkish as the market expects, it could instead become a risk relief point. After all, some have already bet on a "September rate hike" in advance, so as long as the speech doesn't ramp up hawkishness, tech stocks might not be afraid.
Tonight, focus on two things: US Treasury yields and the US dollar. Hopefully, after Warsh's speech, yields will drop, allowing the AI rally sparked by Nvidia last night to continue burning; but if the 30-year Treasury yield pushes above 5.2% again, the bulls might gather to criticize the Fed.
#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ CORE CORE at 0.025 – Stop Chasing PPT Dreams
Price has been stuck for months. The roadmap sounds huge — SatPay, $BTC staking, AMP. Impressive on paper.
But the numbers? ~$59K/month in fees, 9,000 daily users. Real usage, sure. But that kind of revenue can barely fund a buyback.#WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest Many people think digital currencies are speculative products born out of thin air, but in fact, their technological foundation spanned decades, born out of the global financial crisis's crisis of trust, evolving step by step from a niche geek toy into a global financial phenomenon. Its rise is not only a breakthrough in cryptographic technology, but also the result of the global monetary system, capital needs, and the sentiments of the times. 1. On the Eve of Its Birth: The Cypherpunk Movement Sowing the Seeds of Decentralized Currency Long before Bitcoin's emergence, the cypherpunk community—composed of cryptographic enthusiasts, hackers, and tech geeks—had long pondered one question: could it be possible to create a digital currency that is free from government and banking control, is private, secure, and circulates peer-to-peer? In 1998, cryptographer Dai Wei proposed the B-money concept, Nick Saab proposed the concept of bit gold, and Adam Barker invented the proof-of-work mechanism. These pioneering efforts solved the two core problems of digital currency: how to avoid duplicate payments and how to achieve decentralized bookkeeping. But these solutions remained theoretical and could not be implemented. Traditional electronic payments had to rely on banks and third-party platforms as trust intermediaries. Once the intermediary failed, overissued currency, or frozen accounts, user assets lost their protection, which was the core pain point digital currency wanted to solve. 2. The Birth of Bitcoin: The Decentralization Experiment Triggered by the 2008 Financial Crisis In 2008, the global subprime crisis erupted, and major banks issued excessive lending, causing systemic risks. Governments worldwide launched large-scale money printing to rescue the market, and public trust in centralized financial institutions was completely underway$NVDA Latest quarterly revenue reached $96.2 billion, up 106% year-over-year; Data center revenue reached $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year. The company's revenue guidance for the next quarter is also about $108 billion.
This set of data shows that the AI narrative has shifted from "possibly profitable in the future" to a stage where "computing power is generating real income."
For the crypto market, AI assets may become even more differentiated going forward:
One type of project has real users, hash rate demand, and protocol revenue; Another category still relies mainly on concepts, community sentiment, and short-term capital for growth.
As US stocks like Nvidia enter on-chain trading, investors can directly compare whether to allocate US stock tokens with real cash flow or to take on higher volatility to find growth opportunities for crypto-native AI projects.
In the next phase, are you more optimistic about US stock tokens or AI crypto projects?
$NVDA
#财报观察员: Nvidia beats expectations, software revenue begins to pay off At 10 PM tonight, Federal Reserve Chair Wash will deliver his first speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. As one of the large-cap assets in the crypto market most sensitive to macro liquidity, Ethereum's volatility tonight is very likely to be significant.
The reaction logic of $ETH differs from Bitcoin. Besides being influenced by liquidity expectations, it also carries the attribute of a "rate-sensitive growth asset"—the value of on-chain applications, staking yields, and the Layer2 ecosystem all depend on risk appetite, so changes in U.S. Treasury yields often impact Ethereum more directly than Bitcoin. Currently, the market prices in about a 44% chance of a rate hike in September, with inflation at 3.7%, well above the target, while GDP slows to 1.5%. How Wash frames his speech tonight will directly determine which way this probability swings.
If Wash leans hawkish, emphasizing inflation risks and hinting that a September rate hike is an option, U.S. Treasury yields will spike, and Ethereum will likely plunge sharply, with a faster drop than Bitcoin, causing concentrated liquidations among leveraged longs on-chain; if Wash leans dovish, expressing confidence in cooling inflation and downplaying rate hike expectations, Ethereum usually shows the greatest resilience among major coins, with a rebound potentially significantly exceeding Bitcoin's;
Two points are worth noting: first, initial market moves after Jackson Hole speeches have historically often been false breakouts, so the direction on the night may not be the true direction; second, Ethereum's leverage and derivatives position density are relatively high among major coins, so it is advisable to wait for the speech to settle and sentiment to digest before making judgments. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ The setup here is looking very healthy.
Irrespective of any kind of incoming correction or not, the overall backdrop of this price structure isn't bearish.
1. Price - We have a very strong impulsive move
2. Funding - decreased on this recent vertical accumulation
3. Open Interest - nuking and stabilising
4. Coinbase Premium - flipping green for the first time in 3.5 months
5. Spot volume - has been very strong
This has been a heavily spot driven rally where Open interest is stable. The rebound of SOL is worth noting for structural changes beyond just price. In August, it rose 46%, briefly surpassing $110, ending a ten-month streak of weakening monthly moving averages; Solana spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.36 billion in the past week, and Treasury is also increasing its holdings. Funds have returned, but this does not mean the new cycle has been confirmed
On-chain support is improving: August transaction count reached 4.48 billion, RWA scale reached $4.04 billion, stablecoin supply rose to $16.5 billion, and Meme weekly spot volume was $5.24 billion. High-frequency capital retention and risk appetite increase elasticity
But it's important to distinguish between activity and value. Meme can drive up trading volume and narrative, but may not build long-term users. SOL is more like capital, sentiment, and fundamental recovery—it's not something that can go up with a single upgrade. If BTC is stable and ETF inflows don't reverse, SOL has the foundation to surge; When the market weakens, high beta means faster drawdowns
Next, focus on two points: whether RWA and stablecoins will continue to grow, proving that demand is not solely driven by speculation; whether SIMD-550 and 553 can be implemented. The former accelerates inflation reduction, while the latter aims to raise daily burns to 7,500–9,000 coins, with improved supply being a plus
My strategy: Respect strong momentum, but don't extrapolate the 46% monthly gain. After the rise, look for pullbacks and support: shrinking volume and stable on-chain data are strong; If only sentiment pulls up, chasing the high is not cost-effective for $SOL $BTC
(This is for personal market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.)$ETH / $BTC is starting to look very interesting.
Most people are still staring at the dollar chart and calling ETH weak. $2,500 looks sticky. BTC is still hovering near $80,000. $SOL is making more noise. So the easy take is “ETH is lagging again.”
That take is incomplete.
The pair is the real chart. ETH/BTC is sitting around 0.031. Not explosive. Not a blow-off. Just a level that starts to matter after years of Ethereum bleeding against Bitcoin. For a long stretch, every BTC bid made ETH look smaller. The ratio kept making lower highs. People stopped treating ETH as a catch-up trade and started treating it as a permanent underperformer.
That is the trend that may be breaking.
A multi-year downtrend does not snap in one session. It snaps when the market stops rewarding the same trade. BTC strength first. ETH later. Alts never. That sequence has been the default. When ETH/BTC starts holding instead of rolling over, the sequence is the thing that changes.
This is why the dollar chart can lie to you.
ETH can chop around $2,500 and still be building relative strength.
BTC can look like the leader and still be the asset capital rotates out of.
A pair breakout is not a victory candle. It is the market quietly changing who gets the next bid.
The backdrop is not empty either.
ETH spot ETFs have been taking size. Not always bigger than Bitcoin in raw dollars, but heavy relative to ETH’s market cap. That is not how a discarded asset trades. Whales have been adding while the chart looked boring. Staking keeps pulling supply off the table. The product is still the settlement layer a huge part of crypto actually runs on. None of that requires BTC to crash. It only requires BTC to stop absorbing every dollar that enters the market.
That is usually how catch-up starts.
First the leader runs.
Then the leader pauses.
Then the asset that spent years underperforming gets the rotation.$CORE The Timeless Trio: Imminent, Soon, and Soon
After spending a long time in the CORE community, everyone has long remembered the project team's universal script: soon, immediately, very soon.
Power grid narratives, BTCFi ecosystem, SatPay payments—grand concepts take turns building momentum and promoting nonstop. After lengthening the review, none of these have truly been implemented.
The official team uses a total of 2.1 billion yuan to benchmark Bitcoin for scarcity, but deliberately downplays the ultra-long 1981 token release cycle, brushing it off with the continuous new selling pressure.
This playstyle has long been mastered.
Every so often, new concepts are thrown out, relying on vague phrases like "imminent, immediately, very soon" to create empty promises, keeping retail investors in check and constantly instilling hope in those trapped by it.
At its core, it was a recurring empty city ruse. The city tower was filled with drums and gongs, positive signs hung all over the walls, but up close, the city was empty, with no real business support.
Projects that work diligently rely on version updates, on-chain data, and real user speak, without needing long-term vague announcements to stabilize the community.
When output can't keep up with the publicity, they repeatedly use indefinite marketing tactics to delay fulfillment.
"Soon" does not mean completion, "immediately" does not mean launch; most of the time, "soon" is just a euphemism for an indefinite timeframe.
Many retail investors hold onto their faith and wait for the land, year after year.
The project team only needs to keep weaving new stories to stabilize the community's emotions.
Don't treat promotional scripts as transcripts; a trailer is just a trailer. No matter how gorgeous the story is, without real needs to carry it forward, it will ultimately be just a castle in the air.289 tons is a Q2 record, up about 62% year-on-year; More importantly, this batch of funds came amid a quarterly gold price pullback of about 8%, indicating that the central bank is buying reserve allocations, not chasing gains. China increased its holdings by 33 tons in a single quarter, and Poland bought 51 tons, showing strong demand. The market has already priced in part of it: spot gold $XAU recently surged back to about $4,696 and is still above $4,600; Global physical gold ETFs also saw a net inflow of about $3 billion in July, indicating institutional funds have caught up. As a real beneficiary, I am more optimistic about gold mining companies rather than simply chasing gold. For example, Harmony's profits surged 87% year-on-year, Agnico's Q2 EPS rose +57% year-on-year, and rising gold prices are directly converting into profits and cash flow. The most optimistic about AEM (Agnico Eagle) is this. Central banks' gold purchases are slow variables, but mining company profits can amplify gold price increases. There is already hope around 4700 for gold, but mining earnings revaluation is not yet complete. Continued attention is warranted; pullbacks are more comfortable than chasing highs at $XAU $BTC $ETH Nvidia crashed, Okta and CrowdStrike crashed, KOSPI hit new all-time highs. With so many tech positives, the AI chip sellers in Korea should have taken off collectively. But they didn't. Korean investors were hoping to take off today, but why did it still drop? KOSPI weakened today, briefly dropping below 6900 in early trading. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix also fell back. I seriously suspect all the previous positive news was just a way to cash in on investors. But we also need to reflect on why It feels like a promising AI article suddenly cooled down. This shows the market is starting to doubt whether AI capital spending can keep surging, and funds are collectively fleeing from the Korean tech sector. This shows a problem: the market isn't getting excited easily at first. AI is indeed strong, but has the stock price already finished its bull run early? Once this signal appears, storage tokens like SanDisk, on-chain AI concept coins, will be directly under pressure. SanDisk's prices have dropped to SB these past two days. I originally wanted to place a long position at 1420, but now I'm feeling a bit uneasy. MD, I can't play this game anymore. The market has been crazy these past couple of days. If good news doesn't rise, that's a signal. Don't act when emotions are unclear. Let's wait and see clearly before talking. #Wash's appearance at Jackson Hole tonight, can the policy framework be clarified? #财报观察员: AI demand is spreading from hardware to software #BTC冲高回落, with options expiring and experiencing the battle at the threshold The US stock market pre-market has currently shut down; now we just have to wait for Kevin Walsh's speech at 10 PM tonight, hopefully it will be dovish.
There are three scenarios:
1. Hawkish (emphasizing inflation risks, keeping rate hike options open): US Treasury yields rise, the dollar strengthens; US stocks and gold come under pressure, growth AI stocks face greater pressure.
2. Dovish (implying no further tightening needed): US Treasury yields fall, the dollar weakens; favorable for US tech stocks and gold.
3. Continue to be vague (only discussing long-term framework, avoiding interest rate issues): this is Walsh's usual style, the market will interpret it negatively, the bond market will demand higher term premiums, intensifying volatility.
The current mainstream market expectation is that he is unlikely to give very clear signals on rate hikes or cuts, leaning more towards discussing long-term issues, taking a "middle path," but a sharp market reaction after the speech cannot be ruled out. Gold surged 14% in August! The crack in US dollar credit is widening. Since August, international gold prices have surged from $4,040 per ounce to around $4,750, with a monthly increase of over 14%. On August 26, it surged intraday to $4,730.90, a nearly three-month high. This is not an ordinary rebound—gold is being repriced. Three major driving factors: 1. Loosening of dollar credit The total U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $40 trillion for the first time. In the first ten months of this fiscal year, the deficit has reached $1.799 trillion, with interest expenses alone costing nearly $1.2 trillion. The market is voting with its feet: US Treasuries are no longer 'risk-free assets' The Fed tightens monetary policy, the Treasury is loose—this contradiction is starting to shake the credit foundation of the US dollar at the $40 trillion level. 2. Treasury 'Debt Rescue' Becomes a Catalyst On August 19, the US Treasury announced an expansion of long-term Treasury repurchases, doubling the maximum limit from $2 billion to $4 billion. But the $4 billion buyback is just a drop in the bucket compared to $5.5 trillion in outstanding long-term debt. The market interprets this as: the US debt problem has become so severe that the Treasury must intervene. 'Depreciation trading' is reigniting—funds are flowing into gold and Bitcoin. In the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs have combined inflows of about $7 billion. III. Gold pricing logic is being reconstructed. In the past, gold relied on real interest rates, but since 2024, this model has begun to 'derail.' Even with the 10-year Treasury yield as high as 4.75%, gold prices are still rising. The driving variable is shifting from the Federal Reserve's rate to the most intriguing issue of U.S. fiscal sustainabilityThat night, Nvidia's AI rally was reignited.
This move was a perfect match for the rhythm.
Earnings + guidance both exceeded expectations, with the stock price soaring 8.7%. Its market value increased by about $442 billion in a single day, equivalent to nearly 3 trillion RMB, with a total market value surging to $5.49 trillion.
The hardest part isn't the price increase.
It's about expectations.
The market was already optimistic about future growth, but Nvidia's guidance has once again raised expectations.
What does this indicate?
As for AI computing power demand, there is still no clear turning point in sight.
Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are still spending frantically to build data centers. As long as capital spending doesn't hit the brakes, Nvidia's GPU demand will be unlikely to suddenly stall.
Even more noteworthy is Hugging Face.
Nvidia reportedly plans to acquire it for about $12.9 billion.
Is it expensive?
Looking at income multiples alone, the price is outrageous.
But what NVIDIA is buying may not be revenue at all, but rather models, developers, open-source communities, and AI ecosystem gateways.
Previously, it was about selling GPUs.
Later, it became CUDA.
Start grabbing the AI ecosystem now.
This is the most memorable part.
At the same time, software stocks are also starting to recover.
The AI collaboration between Salesforce and Anthropic has renewed market attention on "AI monetization."
So the AI market is starting from:
Computing power → models→ applications → commercialization
What truly determines the next stage's height is not who tells a grand story, but who can turn AI into real money.
Right now, I'm focusing on just three indicators:
Whether AI capital spending can continue to rise;
Whether NVIDIA's data center revenue can continue to exceed expectations;
Can software companies turn AI users into cash flow?
As long as these three terms can still be fulfilled,
The AI rally is far from telling its story.
But with valuations already so high, the next challenge is not imagination, but performance.
Expectations can be raised infinitely, but profits must ultimately be sustained.
#财报观察员: AI demand is spreading from hardware to software In the past, buying gold was afraid of war; now, buying gold is afraid of fiat currency turning paper. Times have changed. Recent data shows 165 gold whales have made gains on the long side, with a win rate of 84%, with positions twice those of the bears. On the other side, 108 short sellers lost money and are still fighting to see who has the upper hand. The numbers are at this price: gold fell from 4697 to 4610 this week, failed to break through three attempts to 4700, and in the short term, it hovered around 4600. But it only fell to $90, and many people bought at the bottom, indicating the bulls haven't gone far. Don't forget, gold has already risen $600 in August, and the monthly trend is still up. Citibank is saying it's 4800 in 3 months and 5000 in 6 months. Institutions aren't just talking—they're buying real gold
Why is gold rising now? The old saying is safe-haven risk-off. Now there's another US dollar debt surpassing 40 trillion, money is worthless, and the market is buying up scarce assets again. Even the Grayscale report mentioned that Bitcoin and gold have a correlation exceeding 50%, indicating capital is being reallocated. Tonight's speech by Washi is key. If he is stubborn, gold prices may push back to 4550; If he softens, continue pushing to 4700
Operating Approach:
Go long—aggressive players can try it now, and wait steadily for 4550-4570 to stabilize before advancing
Short, wait until the 4635-4680 range can't move up before reconsidering. Remember: Don't chase the rise or sell the dip; looking at the direction is more important than the volatility$CORE CORE at 0.025 – Stop Chasing PPT Dreams
Price has been stuck for months. The roadmap sounds huge — SatPay, BTC staking, AMP. Impressive on paper.
But the numbers? ~$59K/month in fees, 9,000 daily users. Real usage, sure. But that kind of revenue can barely fund a buyback.
A great roadmap means nothing until it's delivered. Wait for SatPay to go live. Wait for treasury buybacks on-chain. Wait for real growth.
At 0.025, watch the receipts, not the slides$CORE CORE at 0.025—the blueprint is beautiful, but let's talk about implementation later
Price 0.025, down 99% from the high. Roadmap talks big, but it's useless.
Vision: By 2026, shift to real revenue, with SatPay, BTC staking, and AMP driving buyback and burn strategies.
Reality: Monthly fee ~$59,000, real usage, 9,000 daily active users. But this scale can't support regular buybacks. SatPay is still in internal testing.
Focus on cashing out: SatPay is open to everyone, treasury buybacks are on-chain, BTC staking is growing.
No matter how big the blueprint, only the implementation counts. At 0.025, trust the data, not the PPT.Morgan Stanley raised Marvell's target price all the way to $246, and many people might immediately think of it as a mainstream computing power stock behind Nvidia.
But in the eyes of top institutions, Mywell holds the most lucrative toll in the entire AI network.
Everyone is watching GPU computing power multiply several times over, but often overlooks an extremely harsh physical bottleneck: when tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of chips are connected to form a super cluster, computing power is already sufficient. The real problem is the latency and congestion caused by data traveling back and forth between chips. The larger the cluster, the more exponentially the demand for optical interconnect and high-speed network chips will exponentially—this is the "scale tax" of the AI era.
Mywell's core cards are its dominant-level high-speed optical interconnect DSP chips and customized ASIC business.
On one hand, every time a cloud giant purchases a batch of high-end computing power, they must multiply the amount of Mywell optical module chips into their data centers. This demand completely transcends the pulse of one-time hardware purchases and becomes a network infrastructure that must be continuously paid. On the other hand, major cloud providers are frantically developing custom chips to break free from dependence on a single computing power dominant, and Mywell is an indispensable chip manufacturer hidden behind these tech giants.
Morgan Stanley's recent target price hike sends a very clear signal: Wall Street's understanding of AI computing power is shifting from "whose chip runs fast" to "who can solve the physical limits of network interconnection." Bitcoin miners are quietly launching a counterattack.
Over the past few months, everyone has probably noticed a sign: many Bitcoin miners have pivoted and shifted to providing data and computing power for AI-related sectors, while those who persisted in mining Bitcoin have performed extremely poorly in the past six months.
But after this rebound, these miners who only mine Bitcoin saw the biggest rebound: $BTC rose 22.49%, $CAN rose 66.99%, $ABTC rose 53.71%, $CANG rose 40.96%. In the past week or so, the gains range from 41% to 67%. Conversely, miners who have become hybrid, mining Bitcoin but allocating some hash power to the AI sector, like $MARA and $RIOT, actually saw declines this week.
This incident tells us: never chase the market's hype. Chasing hype isn't just about retail investors; many institutions do, and even some Wall Street investors do. But as a good long-term investor, I believe chasing hype is one of the biggest mistakes you can make. When a sector starts to heat up and everyone is discussing it, it's often already too late.The entire market is holding its breath, wondering if tonight the huge burden of U.S. Treasury bonds weighing down the market can finally be lifted?
At 10 PM tonight, Walsh will give his first official speech at Jackson Hole. His remarks could take three different tones, each leading to different market expectations.
First, if his speech is hawkish, it could mean no rate cuts in September, or even rate hikes. This would tighten global market liquidity, cause U.S. Treasury yields to rise, and be bearish for stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Second, if his speech leans dovish, even just slightly, it would give the market hope for rate cuts, easing the tension in tech and crypto markets.
Third, if he talks tough but is actually holding firm without extreme views—delivering a neutral message—we need to watch the market reaction and analyze it in the context of the current system.
After explaining this, I want to share the underlying logic: inflation in the market is still unresolved, rate hikes are justified, and hawkish remarks are possible.
Currently, the U.S. hopes to lower Treasury yields but is reluctant to let capital flow out easily. The situation favors rate cuts. Also, since December 6, the U.S. stock market has extended trading hours to 23 hours a day with only 1 hour for maintenance. This move likely addresses the inability to hike rates further by preventing capital outflow through extended trading hours. So, I lean dovish. If my view is correct, it signals the arrival of a bull market#沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ $BTC BTC is stalling around 79,000, with both bulls and bears in the same direction
It surged to 81,000 and then retreated to 79,000, down about 1.6% in 24 hours. After such a big rise, taking a breather makes profit-taking normal.
Where is it stuck now?
The pressure around 81,000 has yet to be fully digested; after a 28% rise in August, technically, it needs to take a break before pushing forward. The key is tonight—Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole. How interest rates move directly affects whether the "dollar depreciation trade" can continue.
The good news is that institutions are still buying:
Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $2.6 billion for eight consecutive days, Coinbase's premium has turned positive for the first time in three months, and U.S. funds are flowing back.
But in the short term, there is some weakness:
Profit-taking is severe, with long liquidations surging 469%. 81,000 is holding down in the short term, with 78,000 below as the bottom.
At 79,000, the overall trend isn't broken, but don't rush to chase in the short term. Wait until the direction becomes clear before making a move.Historically, whenever the market closed in the green in August, most subsequent stocks declined in September.
History seems to be repeating itself: August and this month also saw a green market close, and at the end of the month, unexpected news events were added.
This is also one of the key reasons I judged that the market in September is likely to weaken #BTCSome are chasing the rally with their hearts racing, while others sense the presence of hunters in this candlestick. Do you have an answer in your heart about whether to get in on board or wait and see? Let's set the tone for this stage: it's not a broad rally, not a trend launch, but a typical stock game combined with local speculative resonance. We are in a volatility zone where emotions are repeatedly pulled and leverage is quietly accumulating. The first signal I saw was that $SNDK's perpetual contract open interest once surged to about $1.73 billion. What does this number mean? It shows the market is packed with gamblers using leverage, not collectors buying slowly. When open interest accumulates at high prices and spot prices lag behind, it's often not a strong breakout but more like setting the red carpet for a rushed liquidation party. If the funding rate rises simultaneously, then the back of this candlestick is the bulls feeding ammunition to the bears. Once the price pauses slightly, the pedal reduction will accelerate itself. - Bullish path: If spot trading volume continues to increase and futures positions gradually shift into spot hands, this is a shakeout rather than a top, and you can look for new highs later. - Bearish risk: If the price surges again but open interest no longer cooperates, or if the funding rate overheats and quickly falls, it means new funds are stuck and the pullback may be harsher than expected. Meanwhile, names like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR are being briefly embraced by capital. Their rhythm is more like a relay race, but notET date$BTC Net inflow across the market$ETH Net inflow into the market
8‑25 +314.4 +179.8
8‑26 +232.2 +192.4
8‑27 +232.1 +126.0
and three days of total planning
• BTC three-day total: +77.87M ($778.7 million), marking the ninth consecutive day of net inflows; GBTC continues to be redeemed, representing internal product migration, with overall funds not leaving
• ETH three-day total: +49.82M ($498.2 million), with several consecutive days of net inflows, with institutions continuing to allocate ETH exposure
Brief Key Points of Each Item
BTC side
1. IBIT (BlackRock) has consistently been the main inflow; GBTC old trusts continue to see large redemptions and outflows, with funds migrating to low-fee new ETFs. The overall market remains positive, not because institutions are bearish on BTC.
2. Change: Single-day inflow scale declining stepwise: 314 million → 232 million → 232 million. Institutions are still buying, but the strength of new buying has clearly weakened, making it difficult to sustain a strong rally and easily digest overbought at high levels.
ETH side
1. Main Players: ETHA BlackRock; ETHE Grayscale's old products continue to be redeemed, aligning with GBTC's logic, with funds moving to low-fee new ETFs.
2. 8-26 ETH inflows, even approaching BTC; 8-27 ETH inflows have somewhat declined but remain positive. #BTC成交萎缩 can ETF buying rebound? $CORE Are these two players in the BTCFI sector really that different? Comparing the two is a bit ridiculous. People who watch from the bottom say $STX and other types aren't as good as Core, but why can their prices keep rising while Core keeps going down? The total volume is about the same: one has released 99.99% of the total, the other only released about 60%, and 40% remains. There will be big variables later. Any institution wanting to invest will put a question mark ❓ on one project side being transparent and one project team anonymous. No institution is stupid; it's obvious whether they choose transparency or anonymity. The anonymous ones can't find anyone when problems arise, while the transparent ones actually get things done. If everyone insists on riding on BTC, then they choose...LIGHT I went long on this coin. This coin currently has a circulating market cap of about 9.3 million USD, but the total contract open interest across the network reaches as high as 23 million USD, more than twice the market cap. The big players have established a large number of long positions to manipulate it. The last time a coin had contract open interest more than twice its spot market cap was $TRB . #WalshPolicyFramework #AIShiftsToSoftware #BTCOptionsExpiryTest $HYPE $HYPE Thunder ⚠️ tomorrow
Just yesterday it hit an all-time high of $86.8, current price $83.5. The MFI has already reached 91. Chasing in at this level is just boosting the purchasers who bought yesterday.
⸻
Tomorrow, 8/29, 14.17 million tokens will be unlocked, worth $1.2 billion, the largest since TGE, with insiders taking 46.6%.
Looking at the historical script: May unlock dropped 14%, July dropped 7%. The buyback funds only arrived on October 3rd, so no one took over this week.
⸻
The direction is simple 👇
Half of the holdings are pocketed first; short positions target $77-78, sell down to reduce volume and stop the decline, then buy again, aiming for $89. If it falls below $79.45 and can't be recovered, don't take this trade, see it at $69.
Wait for it to fall, don't catch the throwing knife 🔪 AI demand hasn't disappeared; what's really changing is that capital is starting to pick companies and business models. The hardware side remains strong. Nvidia's latest quarterly revenue reached about $96.2 billion, maintaining very high year-on-year growth. Management's revenue expectations for next quarter continue to exceed market forecasts, with computing power demand remaining the core underlying logic of this AI rally. Marvell also sent positive signals, with quarterly revenue around $2.7 billion, up about 37% year-over-year, and further raised its revenue forecast for future fiscal years. Interestingly, although the earnings report was good, the stock price showed a noticeable decline—indicating that the market is no longer just looking at "performance," but on whether future growth can exceed already high expectations. Software was one of the biggest highlights of this earnings season. CrowdStrike's quarterly revenue was about $1.47 billion, up 26% year-over-year, with net new ARR of about $333 million, up 51% year-over-year, and it raised its full-year revenue guidance. This data is crucial because it shows that demand driven by AI is gradually spreading from pure data center and GPU procurement to application layers such as cybersecurity and enterprise software. The performances of Salesforce and Okta also reinforce this trend. After the latest financial reports were released, the stock prices of both companies sharply strengthened, and the market began to reassess the previously pessimistic expectations that "SaaS will be impacted by AI." So now, looking at the AI industry chain, we can no longer simply ask: "Is there still demand for AI?"$HYPE
HYPE has been strong these past two days, hitting a new high of $86.6 on the 27th, then falling back to around $83-84 today, with high trading volume. The rise is mainly due to strong platform business, increased buybacks, and ongoing institutional buybacks, which has also boosted market sentiment.
However, tomorrow (the 29th), about 14.18 million tokens will be unlocked, worth over $1 billion, nearly half of which will be given to early insiders, which may cause short-term selling pressure. Historically, prices often drop for a few days after unlocking.
The future trend depends on whether you can buy this stock. Hold around $80, digest it, and have a chance to rally again; If you can't hold it, try a pullback first before watching. In the medium to long term, I still favor the platform itself, but short-term volatility will increase, so don't chase highs.
#HYPE At 10 PM tonight (Beijing time), Federal Reserve Chair Wash will deliver his debut speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, which is the most important policy statement before the September interest rate meeting. For assets like Dogecoin, which are high beta and driven by sentiment and liquidity, tonight basically means "one speech determines the trend for the week."
The transmission logic is straightforward: Dogecoin almost entirely follows the overall beta of the crypto market, and the crypto market is now highly tied to U.S. Treasury yields and dollar liquidity expectations. The market currently prices in about a 44% chance of a rate hike in September. July's PCE inflation at 3.7% remains significantly above target, but Q2 GDP has slowed to 1.5%, making the policy path quite complicated. Most institutions expect Wash to be neutral tonight—he has deliberately downplayed forward guidance since taking office and is unlikely to provide a clear path.
Scenario analysis: If Wash emphasizes inflation risks and hints at a possible rate hike in September, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar will strengthen, risk assets will come under pressure, and Dogecoin will likely lead the decline, with a drop 1.5 to 2 times that of Bitcoin, causing significant short-term volatility; if he expresses confidence in cooling inflation and downplays rate hikes, rate hike expectations will quickly fall, liquidity expectations will ease, and $DOGE usually rebounds the most, with gains significantly outperforming the broader market; if purely neutral, only discussing the framework without mentioning the path, the market may first spike up and down before returning to consolidation, leaving the real directional choice to September data. #沃什今晚亮相杰克逊霍尔，能否明确政策框架？ Guys, $BEAT finally dropped to the point where no one talks about it anymore.
Just checked the data: BEAT is currently quoted at $0.1245. This price is down more than 98% from its June all-time high of $11.57. In early August, it was still fluctuating above $3, then around August 10 it plunged directly to $0.85-$0.95, then continued to fall to the current $0.1245.
🔥 What happened? From 3 yuan to 0.12, it took only two weeks
On August 1, 21.25 million BEAT tokens were unlocked, worth about $67.8 million, accounting for 6.9% of the circulating supply at that time. In theory, such a large supply shock would cause the price to drop by at least 20%.
The actual results were much worse than expected—from around $3 in early August to $1.00, then dropped to $0.85, and finally reached $0.12 now. Throughout August, BEAT was a regular on the cryptocurrency market's decline list.
The core issues are threefold:
First, 67% of the supply has yet to be released. BEAT's total supply is 1 billion tokens, with only about 330 million currently circulating. The remaining 670 million tokens remain locked up, and the market is always worried about the next batch of unlocks.
Second, the chips are highly concentrated. On-chain data shows that the top 10 wallets control about 87% of the supply. They rely on them to push the market, and dumping the market only requires them to click a mouse. Under this structure, any rebound can be an opportunity to sell.
Third, capital is fleeing. In late August, as new narratives emerged on mainstream public chains, capital began to withdraw massively from the GameFi sector, which lacked practical application-based support. BEAT, as a typical narrative-driven asset, saw its price fall freely after losing the relay of incremental funds.
📊 The project itself hasn't actually collapsed
Audiera is still that Web3 rhythm game + AI music platform, with nearly 800,000 BEAT per week and a 99.8% burn rate still running. Total burns have exceeded 17 million BEAT.
But the problem is, the survival of the project and the price not falling are two different things. From $11.57 to $0.1245, every "bottom-fishing" in between turned into a "catch of a flying knife." Worse still, there is no evidence of which wave of decline was the "last."
Some analysts consider $0.55-$0.65 as a potential support zone, but $0.1245 is already more than 80% below that level. No one can say for sure where the support below lies.
📌 Operation Advice (for reference only)
Go long: wait for a stabilization signal on the right side before deciding. Right now, it's a typical one-sided decline, and the winning rate for catching the flying knife is extremely low
Short: If the rebound to $0.14-$0.15 is weak, consider a light position, tighten stop-loss support, but the room for short selling at this level is limited
The safest option: don't touch. Wait for volume to stop falling + volume to consolidate sideways, confirm the bottom structure before making a move
Leverage: Extremely poor liquidity, huge slippage, use limit orders
💰 Today, there is a rise and fall
BEAT is just watching the show—this trend is hard to keep up. Let's talk in the comments—is anyone else on this car? How much does it cost? 👇
#波动雷达: Monitor currency fluctuations The concrete is still in initial setting, yet the rebar of the load-bearing wall has already prematurely exposed the direction of stress. The BTC “steel column” is violently shaking at the $80,000 elevation — from the architect’s perspective, this is not a “normal pullback after a breakout,” but a typical creep cracking signal during a load test.
The K33 data is like a foundation settlement observation report: the largest single-day short squeeze means the “reaction piles” (short positions) originally piled in the basement were removed all at once, changing the balance mechanism of the upper structure. Futures open interest then declined; this is not reinforcement, it’s unloading. An excellent construction team never mistakes “unloading” for “load-bearing capacity.” The holes left by speculative shorts retreating require thicker solid backfill soil to compact — the $1.92 billion inflow into ETFs is like those trucks delivering “graded crushed stone,” with many impurities and density yet to be verified.
But don’t forget, the $6.44 billion options expiring on August 28 are like a row of temporary steel beams spanning the entire floor, concentrated in the $75,000 to $80,000 elevation range. This is not the prestressed reinforcement in your permanent structure; it’s scaffolding — locking the activity space of the near-term price. When the off-exchange buying power tries to lift the floor to the $85,000 elevation, it hits exactly the largest batch of strike prices.
A short squeeze is a strong wind load, coming fast and going fast. ETF spot buying is a dead load, gentle but continuous. But any building designer knows that a structure relying only on gravity for stability fears most the “moment the wind stops.” When the external force no longer supports it, whether it truly has cantilever capacity is immediately clear.
Is this rebound the self-stabilizing force of the main structure, or a temporary form carved by the typhoon? My advice is simple: repeatedly review that construction log, watch the pile foundation that was squeezed, and see if the cracks continue to spread toward the column top. As for that temporary partition wall made of options, after it’s removed, is the load-bearing wall still there? #BTCOptionsExpiryTest NVDA + SNDK + SK Hynix, a full AI storage chain lit up today:
$xNVDA post-market earnings blew up the scene—Q2 revenue $96.2 billion, up 106% year-over-year, data center $89 billion accounting for 92.5%, Q3 guidance breaks $100 billion for the first time ($105.8–110.2 billion), even projecting a 70% growth for fiscal 2028 one year ahead. On 8/27 close, up 8.74% to $227.98, market cap $5.51 trillion.
Looking upstream, $xSKHY Hynix closed at ₩1,730,000 on 8/27 (+2.49%), Q1 operating profit ₩37.6 trillion, profit margin 72%, HBM capacity booked through 2028. For every Blackwell chip NVDA sells, Hynix consumes one more HBM—this is the strongest binding.
$xSNDK closed at $1,484.95 (-0.96%), PE only 20 times, in the NAND supercycle it is the "cheap one," but consumer side hit by memory price hikes, gross margin under pressure.
The relationship among the three: NVDA is the demand source, Hynix is the supply bottleneck, SanDisk is the cycle elasticity. The chain is unbroken, the market is still alive. ETH popularity needs to be split in half: one is how many people are talking about it, and the other is which side the conversation leans to. OKX Onchain OS recorded 6 mentions of ETH in the official snapshot at 15:00 on August 28, including 5 times in X and 1 in the news; In 24 hours, there were a total of 735 mentions. The latest hourly speed is 0.20 times the 24-hour average, meaning it is about 80% lower than the 24-hour average, which is a "clear slowdown." This describes attention rhythm but cannot replace price, transaction, or capital flow data. In terms of tone, the hourly bias is 67% bullish, 0% bearish, and neutral about 33%, so currently, the bullish bias is clearly dominant. The 24-hour ratio is 44% bullish and 8% bearish; Whether the short window is deviating from the long window is more meaningful than looking at just one percentage. What I care about most here is actually the denominator: only 6 times. If there are a few more focused discussions, the proportions may be clearly rewritten; Reposts, quotes, and news retelling may all be about the same thing. Biased or bearish can be written as it is, but it cannot be casually translated as how much capital has established positions in the same direction. Currently, ETH's source structure is "mainly driven by X." If X mentions the increase first and the news is still little, it is more like the community spreading first; If news increases simultaneously, it only means more verifiable materials and still need to return to the original announcements of the foundation, protocol, regulator, or trading platform to confirm details. 24$xSNDK Tonight's NVDA closing is crucial!
In 24h, it fell 4.85%. The underlying SNDK closed at $1484.95 on 8/27 (-0.96%), discounted by -1.42 ✅%, safe.
Last night, before NVDA's earnings report, SanDisk rose 4%+ in pre-market trading, but NVDA fell 3% in after-hours trading, dragging down the storage sector. Today, xSNDK opened directly down by -4.85%. Essentially, OKX has priced in last night's weakness in US stocks.
Fundamental logic unchanged: On 8/14 Investor Day, the "long-term contract stock" narrative (gross margin 80%, operating margin 75%, $93.9 billion minimum revenue locked in, $15.5 billion share buyback) remains in effect; Wall Street target average $2,125 (+41.73% increase); Year-to-date: +518% gain.
The key is how NVDA moves after the US stock market opens tonight. If NVDA drops 3-5%, SanDisk is very likely to follow suit; After tonight's close, xSNDK will have a clear direction tomorrow morning.
Trading: Brothers who bought in at 1500-1700 don't panic. Today's -4.85% is NVDA's earnings report, not SanDisk's own problem. Want to increase positions, wait for a pullback to $1,300-1,400. Don't chase NVDA before the US stock market closes tonight; wait until tomorrow's Asian session opens to watch SK Hynix, MU, and SNDK before making judgments.$xPOPMART is showing strong strength.
Structure remains under control.
EP
19.80 - 20.10
TP
20.50
21.00
21.60
22.20
SL
19.30
Liquidity is building above the reclaimed reaction zone, with buyers defending structure after the move. As long as support holds, continuation toward higher liquidity remains the favored scenario.
Let’s go $xPOPMARTBTC 80,000, ETH2500 Defeated: Bullish Wash or True Market Reversal: Complete Analysis
80,000 and 2,500 are psychological + options concentration levels; breaking below does not necessarily mean a direct trend reversal. Currently, it is a bullish wash testing support, and a market reversal warning has already appeared. It is necessary to confirm key signals and distinguish between the two.
1. Core Features of Bullish Shakeout (Shakeout) (Current Phenomena Match)
Purpose: To eliminate short-term bullish chasing highs, liquidate high leverage, clear out trend-following floating shares, and keep institutional bottom positions without withdrawing—this is a mid-rise pullback.
1. Derivative Product Level:
A break below the threshold triggers a large number of long contracts to be liquidated, leading to a decline in open interest, which is deleveraging; The option expiring gamma amplifies downward pressure, causing a false breakout and sweeping stop-losses for many bulls chasing highers.
2. Capital Characteristics:
BTC/ETH spot ETFs continue to maintain net inflows and have not turned into sustained net outflows; This means institutions have not withdrawn their allocated funds, only short-term profit-taking and small amounts of ancient dormant wallets have been cashed out.
3. On-chain performance:
Dormant wallets only occasionally deposited into exchanges, with no batch of ancient addresses continuously depositing the exchange; The total BTC reserves on exchanges did not continue to rise.
4. Volume and price: Volume is limited after breaking below the threshold. Buying quickly appears at the next core support level, with short-term recoveries at 80,000/2,500.
2. Conditions for confirming a true market shift (trend weakening).
A market shift signifies: institutional funds are starting to withdraw, early whales are selling off large-scale shares, and the bullish trend structure is disrupted. Multiple signals need to resonate, and you can't judge it by breaking below the integer level alone.
1. ETF funds shifted from inflows to consecutive days of net outflows, with institutional buying like BlackRock disappearing—this is the most important spot signal.
2. On-chain: Wallets dormant for over ten years continuously deposit large amounts to exchanges, with long-term holders collectively distributing tokens.
3. Market structure: After breaking below 80,000/2,500, the rebound weakened and could no longer hold the level. The lows kept slipping downward, and key support at 74,800 and 2,240 was effectively broken down at the daily chart.
4. Macro catalyst: Jackson Hole's speech released a hawkish stance, causing U.S. Treasury yields to rise sharply and risk assets to collectively sell.
5. Counterfeit synchronization: Mainstream altcoins have experienced sustained sharp declines, with the rebound becoming increasingly weak.
3. Current Market Situation: A bullish shakeout is underway, alarms of market reversal have been triggered, but no concrete evidence has been confirmed
Now is the process of washing the bulls, but we are already at a crossroads of market reversal.
1. Already occurred: 80,000 and 2,500 levels were breached, a large number of short-term bullish positions were liquidated, and options derivatives experienced amplified declines; Some ancient chips were cashed out under selling pressure.
2. Not yet happened: ETFs have not seen large-scale outflows; Long-term holders have not collectively distributed large amounts; Core spot support at 74,800 and 2,240 has not been effectively breached.
• Hold this area: Deepen the bullish shakeout, wash away short-term trend-following trends, and after the consolidation, still have a chance to challenge resistance above;
• If this level is effectively broken below and combined with shrinking ETF inflows, it confirms a moderate reversal and the overall volatility range shifts downward.
4. Impact of different stock market performances
BTC、ETH
• Shakeout scenario: The market fluctuates back and forth between 74,800-81,500 and 2,240-2,550, repeatedly blowing up both long and short, exhausting market patience.
• Pattern reversal scenario: After the support is broken, further downward expansion potential occurs.
Altcoins (SOL, ZEC, etc.)
During the shakeout phase, the pullback is much larger than Bitcoin's; Once a market change is confirmed, counterfeit stocks will experience significant drawdowns. Counterfeit ETFs do not have institutional ETFs to buy directly, fully following market sentiment.
5. Key Observation Indicators (Used to Distinguish Between Shakeout and Market Change)
1. Daily ETF capital flow: As long as net inflows are maintained, the probability of market reversals drops significantly; Continuous net outflows are high-risk signals.
2. On-chain dormant addresses: Whether large amounts are continuously deposited into exchanges.
3. Key support: BTC74800, ETH2240, see if the daily closing price breaks below the limit.
4. Macro: Jackson Hole speaks, U.S. Treasury yield on 2-year Treasury yields.
5. Trading volume: When the price breaks below support, whether volume increases and the likelihood of a breakout is higher; Fake breakouts with shrinking volume are mostly signs of shakeout.
Summary
In the short term, if it breaks below 80,000 or 2,500, it should be characterized as a wash of bulls and clear out high-leveraged positions chasing gains, but the risk of a reversal has already been opened and one cannot afford to be careless. Breaking the round number threshold is just a warning; the real judgment of the market is ETF funds and the 74,800/2240 spot support, plus the Fed's Jackson Hole signal. Only when multiple negative factors resonate will it evolve into a true trend reversal.
#BTC冲高回落, options expiration is a major battle at the larger threshold 🌞 $SOL Leading the Gains, Greed Index Off the Charts—Is the Knockoff Season Coming?
Today's brightest performer was SOL: quoted at $108–109, up about 7–8% in 24 hours, up over 24% in 7 days, leaving BTC (+2%) and ETH (+0.4%) far behind. Avalanche and Hyperliquid, which are also high beta players, followed suit.
Sentiment: The panic and greed index has reached "extreme greed," with bullish sentiment on Solana and BTC on X, and MEME trading volume rebounding. On-chain ETH non-empty wallets have surpassed 200 million for the first time, with participation expanding. Options expiration + macro data should be closely monitored this week.
My interpretation: Risk appetite is clearly returning, and funds are rotating toward high beta—this is a classic case of 'big brother setting the stage, little brother performing.' But extreme greed is often a sign of reversal. Last time it was so exciting, but then it got stuck in the back.
Opinion: You can be light on the trend but don't go all in. Hold back your bullets and wait for a needle. Honestly, watching SOL surge excites me more than anyone, but it's precisely at times like this that you need to stay calm. Greedy people end up becoming liquidity 💧 Meta's stock price rose after a massive settlement, and this reaction was very strong on Wall Street
The fines are hefty, but the uncertainty is even higher. What the market fears most is not losing money, but not knowing how deep this hole is, whether it will drag on for years, or whether it will affect core products. After the settlement was settled, bad news shifted from "infinite imagination" to "measurable"
This doesn't mean Meta's risks have disappeared. Youth protection, platform responsibility, AI content, data usage—there's still a bunch of troubles ahead. But for investors, as long as the most frightening tail risks are trapped, valuation models will dare to move forward again
To put it bluntly, stock prices are sometimes not rewarding good news, but celebrating bad news finally getting a price. This logic is cold, but the market has always been this pragmatic
#Meta巨额和解后股价走高, risk pricing revaluation #财报观察员：英伟达超预期，软件收入开始兑现
Nvidia's Q2 earnings exceeded expectations, not only with hardware revenue hitting new highs, but more importantly, software revenue has begun to scale and realize value. The business logic of AI is evolving from "selling hardware" to "selling an ecosystem."
Key Highlights of the Earnings Report
Q2 total revenue reached $96.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 106%; data center business revenue was $89 billion, up 117% year-over-year, both significantly surpassing market expectations. Among these, software and services revenue grew over 120% year-over-year, with enterprise AI subscriptions and inference service revenue continuously increasing their share, showing growth is no longer solely dependent on hardware shipments.
Value Realized from Software
Previously, market valuation debates about Nvidia centered on it being merely the "shovel seller" in the AI cycle, with growth capped by hardware shipment volumes. The rise in software revenue means Nvidia is upgrading from a chip supplier to an AI platform company encompassing "hardware + software + ecosystem," resulting in a more stable profit model and potential upward shift in valuation baseline.
Industry Transmission Impact
Hardware exceeding expectations confirms that AI capital expenditure remains on an upward trajectory, while the growth in software validates the acceleration of AI application deployment. Industry prosperity will spread from upstream chips to downstream software and applications, significantly enhancing the sustainability of growth across the entire AI sector.
This earnings report not only dispels concerns about AI market peak but also reshapes Nvidia's own growth logic, providing clear support for risk appetite in the global technology sector. $NVDA Bitcoin is approaching the supply-dense zone. The key zone remains $80,000 to
$82,500, with a large amount of Bitcoin's on-chain cost in this area, formed during the last rally before the sell-off, though not all tokens need to be traded. On the other hand, capital flow data is positive. As of August 26, US spot ETFs have attracted funds for eight consecutive trading days, totaling about $2.8 billion, with August attracting about $3.3 billion, the highest monthly inflow so far this year. On-chain data shows that the seven-day net realized profit and loss is positive, about $752 million, with realized profits close to $1.1 billion and realized losses of $354 million. Despite supply above, spot demand is surging. If Bitcoin continues to close above $82,500, it indicates that chip rotation is complete (supply is fully absorbed). On the downside, the key level is $76,600, which is close to the cost basis for short-term holders. Closing below this level for a single day is manageable on its own. But if at least two of the following three deteriorate simultaneously, it becomes a real warning: ETF fund flows, Coinbase premium, and the net realized gains and losses of the seven-day exponential moving average. #MustReadForBeginners: Everything You Need Here #交易之声: Your Experience Deserves to Be Heard $BTC The "loosening" of the Strait of Hormuz situation is a dynamic evolution, from the initial "negotiation signal" to the "agreement reached," and then to the "actual restoration of navigation," with market impacts unfolding layer by layer. The core conclusion is: the overall easing of the situation is bearish for crude oil, positive for gold, and Bitcoin, but the transmission logic among the three is completely different and varies in stages.
🛢️ Crude oil: Geopolitical premiums are rapidly fading, with the most direct pressure
The loosening of the strait has the most direct and severe impact on crude oil, with the core being the rapid squeeze out of a large amount of "war premium" previously included in oil prices.
· Panic selling: Once signals of settlement or navigation are announced, oil prices plunge sharply. Brent crude oil has once fallen more than 40% from its March high.
· Squeezing out the "war premium": analysts estimate that the geopolitical premium of $20 to $25 per barrel formed earlier due to geopolitical conflicts is being quickly absorbed. Some models show that the panic premium that could subside later has basically disappeared.
· Pricing logic shift: The market is shifting from "geopolitical pricing" to "supply-demand fundamental pricing." However, it should be noted that actual navigation volumes have not fully recovered, global inventory buffers are insufficient, and fundamental gaps still provide some bottom support for oil prices.
🥇 Gold: Pricing logic shifts from "safe haven" to "rate cuts/inflation"
Gold's performance seems counterintuitive—geopolitical risks have eased, but gold prices have risen instead of falling. The core lies in a shift in its pricing logic:
· Phase One (Blockade Period): The blockade caused energy prices to soar, driving up inflation and expectations of interest rate hikes, which in turn suppressed gold. Meanwhile, Gulf countries with blocked energy exports may sell gold to replenish cash flow, creating a situation where "the straits are closed, gold is hard to rise."
· Phase Two (Loosening Period): As the situation eases and oil prices fall, inflation expectations cool, monetary policy room opens up (e.g., U.S. Treasury yields fall), and the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases. Gold's "anti-inflation" attributes are regaining favor.
· Institutional View: CITIC Securities believes that the impact of the strait situation on gold will shift from suppression to boost. Multiple institutions predict that gold prices may return to an upward channel.
₿ Cryptocurrency (Bitcoin): Indirectly transmitted through "macro expectations," with sharp volatility
Crypto assets like Bitcoin are affected by the strait situation, mainly through the indirect effect of the macro transmission chain of "oil prices → inflation/interest rates → risk appetite."
· "Risk Asset" Logic: Easing Situation → Oil Prices Falling → Cooling Inflation Expectations → Rising Rate Cut Expectations → Market Liquidity Improvement, Rising Risk Appetite → Favorable for Bitcoin.
· Market performance: Bitcoin tends to rise after news of a peace framework or the resumption of navigation. For example, after news of the U.S.-Iran peace framework in June, Bitcoin briefly broke through $66,000.
· Complexity and "desensitization" phenomena: The cryptocurrency market's response to such news is not fixed. By July 2026, facing similar escalating geopolitical conflicts, Bitcoin's price volatility was much smaller than before, and the market experienced "desensitization." This was driven by repeated news games and on-chain data bottoming.
· Long-term perspective: In the long run, if the U.S. tightens control over the crypto industry due to sanctions, it may actually force sanctioned countries like Iran to more actively embrace cryptocurrencies, creating a new narrative of "digital oil" demand for Bitcoin.
💎 Summary
Every "loosening" in the Strait of Hormuz is a stress test for the world's three major asset classes:
· Crude oil is the most direct victim of short positions, with geopolitical premiums quickly stripped away;
· Gold has made a spectacular transformation from "safe haven" to "anti-inflation";
· Bitcoin, as an alternative asset sensitive to macro expectations, demonstrates its complexity amid volatility.
What the market is trading now is not just reality, but also expectations. Whether the final agreement can be implemented and whether navigation can continue to recover will be key to determining future trends.
#伊朗开放临时航道, the U.S. refuses to restore the old agreement To be honest, Warsh’s speech tonight is unlikely to trigger significant volatility in either the crypto market or U.S. stocks. The main focus of the meeting is financial innovation, so he probably won’t provide any short-term guidance on whether the Federal Reserve plans to adjust interest rates in September.
#WalshPolicyFramework
#AIShiftsToSoftware
#BTCOptionsExpiryTest During the Asian session on August 28, Taiwan stock TAIEX was driven back to 46,500 points by chip stocks, with chip stocks rebounding across the board. As a real-time indicator of global semiconductor prosperity, Taiwan's strength confirms that the hardware bull market is not yet over, once again proving that as long as AI infrastructure continues, this deeply embedded supply chain market remains a safe haven. Even with the threat of tariffs, as long as Nvidia still needs TSMC, the bottom of this market is firm. However, this overreliance on a single industry makes Taiwan stocks extremely sensitive to global liquidity; if the US dollar rebounds sharply, foreign capital will withdraw very quickly
Finally, as a prelude to observing the U.S. semiconductor sector, the performance of the Asian session often sets the tone for the evening opening of the U.S. market, so a wave of performance in Friday can be expected#WalshPolicyFramework Chair Walsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote feels important for one reason: markets still don’t really know his policy framework 👀
Core PCE remains above the Fed’s 2% target, while initial jobless claims fell to 203K. At the same time, Schmid and Hammack continue to emphasize inflation risks, making the internal rate debate look more divided.
What I want to hear isn’t simply whether Walsh sounds hawkish or dovish. I’m more interested in the conditions behind each decision: how much inflation persistence would justify tightening, how much labor weakness would change that view, and where financial conditions fit into the equation 🧭
The Fed–Treasury boundary on long-term yields also needs clarity. Without it, every data release or policy comment risks creating an outsized market reaction.
A clear framework may not remove uncertainty, but at least it would explain how the Fed intends to navigate it.