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Market cap is a photo. It’s not a fortress. Yes, $ZEC flipped $DOGE today. Respect for the 10 year climb. But let’s read the fine print: - ZEC: Built on privacy narrative. Dev team shakeup in Jan, Orchard bug bruised trust, and EU MiCA in July 2027 may delist privacy coins. Narrative fuel. - DOGE: SEC calls it a digital commodity. Spot ETF on Nasdaq. 6000+ merchants. Revolut card live. Merged-mined with LTC. DOGE-1 satellite pending. Licenses, rails, and use cases. ZEC hit highs in 2018 too. TheSecond-tier coins are recovering, but BTC, ETH, and SOL have not caught up yet
Fixed 9 high-liquidity coins, in the previous hour 8 fell and 1 rose, this hour shifted to 6 rising and 3 falling, with trading volume increasing by 25.3% quarter-on-quarter to 29.09 million USDT.
The gains are concentrated in XRP, DOGE, ADA, LINK, OKB, UNI; BTC, ETH, and SOL still closed lower. Funds are starting to rotate, the three major assets have not yet resonated.
If in the next 1H at least 6 samples continue to rise, and at least one of BTC, ETH, or SOL strengthens, the recovery will spread; if the number of rising coins drops below 3, this round of diffusion fails.
Have you seen a market where second-tier coins recover first and the three major assets lag behind? Usually, who takes over?
Data as of 20:00, source OKX official API, only using confirm=1 closed K-lines.$BTC has 14 minutes left before the PPI release. Here's the market's baseline: expected core PPI 0.3%, last month 0.2%; overall PPI expected 0.4%, last month 0.0%. In plain language: the market has already accepted that inflation is rising and is just waiting to see how high it goes. The probability of a rate hike has jumped to 62%, up from 30% a month ago. Today, Brent crude broke 102, and gold fell below 4400. With oil prices holding strong, PPI is very likely to be expensive. The biggest worry is the chain reaction: if PPI heats up, can CPI be good tomorrow night? The rate decision is on September 15, this is the last teaser. Whales are lying low, holding 5.23 million coins unchanged for a week. The whole market is waiting, the fear and greed index is still at 66, greed. What I fear most is this: when everyone thinks nothing is wrong, that's when trouble comes. How to cope: keep positions light enough to sleep before the data comes out; if PPI exceeds expectations, don't rush to short, beware of a sell-off after bad news; if PPI is mild, don't rush to go long either, if CPI doesn't pass, the alarm isn't off. Tonight is just the appetizer, tomorrow night's CPI is the main course. If the appetizer is too salty, the main course will probably be overwhelming. Do you think tonight is bearish or bullish? Will tomorrow night's five-star explosive CPI cause a crash? Are you holding coins to watch the data or clearing out to avoid it now?This afternoon, BTC suddenly fell below the 78,000 mark, hitting a low of $77,996, a 24-hour drop of 1.6%. The total liquidation across the entire network in 24 hours totaled $388 million, with 142,000 liquidated, the vast majority of them long positions. Of CoinDesk's 100 coins, 95 are falling, with meme coins and small-cap coins falling the most. But Liuda Goose wants to say, this is not the most crucial part. At 8:30 tonight, the US August PPI data will be released—this is the real judgment. The PPI is the Producer Price Index, equivalent to the "leading indicator" of the CPI—prices rise on the factory side, and consumers will inevitably follow. If the PPI exceeds expectations, it means inflationary pressure remains, and the probability of a rate hike in September will continue to rise from the current 60%, with BTC likely to fall back to 77,000 or even lower; If the PPI falls short of expectations, the logic of cooling inflation holds, and BTC could quickly recover 80,000. There will also be CPI tomorrow at the same time. Together, these two data points basically determine whether the Fed will raise rates on September 15-16. Here's a good news that's easy to overlook. The US Senate will vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15, and Coinbase's CEO publicly stated it is likely to pass. If this bill passes, the US crypto regulatory framework will be clear, which will be a long-term benefit for the entire industry. But in the short term, the market is not interested in this; all attention is on inflation data. Back to trading psychology. Why do people liquidate positions before every data release? Because some people think, "I can guess the right direction," and go heavily to leverage their positions[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
OpenAI and Anthropic haven't gone public yet, but they're already exploring bond issuance: The AI arms race is starting to look for "cheap ammunition"
Everyone is asking Pharaoh, how come OpenAI and Anthropic haven't rung the bell yet but are already considering bond issuance? Could it be that server costs are burning money too fast, and the accountants are starting to panic?
Pharaoh believes they are not simply short on cash but want to directly reduce the financing costs of AI infrastructure.
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are representing the two companies in talks with rating agencies, hoping to secure investment-grade ratings soon after their IPOs.
SpaceX has set a precedent: after going public in June this year, it quickly obtained an investment-grade rating and issued $25 billion in bonds within days.
But rating agencies are not so easily fooled. OpenAI and Anthropic are still not consistently profitable, free cash flow hasn't turned positive, and they face competition from Chinese open-source models.
What impact does this have on Bitcoin?
If AI labs can issue bonds themselves, the guarantee and capital expenditure pressure on giants like Nvidia, Oracle, and Google will decrease, making the AI industry financing loop more complete. Risk appetite for tech stocks will warm up, liquidity will spill over again, and Bitcoin naturally has a chance to get a share.
Pharaoh's final words: AI is responsible for burning computing power, Wall Street is responsible for burning bonds, and Bitcoin is responsible for sniffing the scent of liquidity on the side. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #OpenAI与Anthropic筹备信用评级 Super 48-hour countdown: Tonight's PPI, tomorrow night's CPI, how many rounds can my crypto positions withstand?
At 20:30 tonight, the US August PPI will be released first; at the same time tomorrow night, August CPI will follow closely. These two data points are the last key variables before the Federal Reserve's rate decision on September 16, directly determining the short-term fate of my crypto assets.
The market expects the overall August CPI year-on-year to be about 3.4%, core CPI year-on-year about 2.4%, with the current 25 basis point rate hike pricing still around 60%. PPI is the preliminary battle, reflecting cost pressures on the business side; CPI is the decisive battle, with a core month-on-month 0.2% as my defined lifeline—below it, rate hike expectations cool down, and BTC is expected to challenge above $82,000; above 0.3%, the crypto market may face a 5%-12% pullback.
My strategy is simple: if both PPI and CPI are hot, reduce positions to 40-50%, clear all altcoins; if both are cold, gradually increase positions to 70-80%; if data is ambiguous, hold position and control leverage.
The 60% rate hike pricing itself is a time bomb, the market is skeptical, and any deviation may trigger a sharp expectation adjustment. The crypto market trades 24/7, and volatility at the moment of data release far exceeds traditional markets, making leveraged positions highly susceptible to cascading liquidations.
In this super 48 hours, I don't need to guess every number correctly, just prepare response plans for every scenario in advance. Staying alive is more important than making money, discipline is more important than judgment. 当周失业金+8月PPI将会成为今晚风险资产继续承压的主要因素！ 稍后20：30分公布的是当周初请失业金人数+8月PPI数据，数据预期高于前值，加上目前Brent价格处于103附近，资本市场已经开始提前为通胀预期计价 美债2年10年30年收益率数据公布前均提前上涨，顶着高油价还有这份数据，基本上市场开始提升9月加息以及通胀反弹的预期 当然这份数据也并非无用，数据公布后是符合预期还是超预期，将会决定9月加息概率，目前数据公布前9月加息概率为62.2% 最鹰数据，初请失业金弱于20万，PPI≥5.5%，就业稳+通胀反弹，进一步提升9月加息概率，风险市场进一步承压，债市收益率进一步上涨 中性数据，初请失业金20-21万，PPI 5.2%-5.4%，符合预期，轻微推高9月加息预期，风险市场稍微反弹，债市收益率短期会有所下挫（Sell the news） #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 利好风险资产的数据，初请失业金21-22万，PPI ≤5%，通胀低于预期+就业温和降温，9月加息概率回归60%附近，风险资产短期有所提振 衰退型数据，初请失业金＞23万，PPI ≤5%，通胀降温，就New meme coins come and go, so why does $DOGE always remain at the main table?
The answer lies not in technology, but in DOGE's transformation from a joke to a cultural symbol.
In 2013, two programmers made a joke using a Shiba Inu meme, and DOGE was born. It had no grand narrative in a whitepaper, no complex technical roadmap; precisely because of this "not taking itself seriously," it lowered the barrier—anyone could understand this dog, anyone could join the game. No matter how new the coins that came later were, they still told the story of "the next DOGE," which acknowledged where the original reference point was.
The community is its strongest asset. Tipping culture, sponsoring the Jamaican bobsled team, crowdfunding to send racers to the track—these things turned holders into participants. When prices cooled down, other project communities dispersed, but DOGE's community kept playing memes and doing charity work, maintaining a reservoir of enthusiasm.
Elon Musk's endorsement gave it continuous exposure. From Twitter jokes to Tesla merchandise payments, to the coincidental naming of a government efficiency department (DOGE), each time brought this dog back into the public eye. New coins can buy temporary traffic, but not a decade of accumulated recognition.
More importantly, DOGE has lasted long enough. It has gone through several bull and bear cycles, the chain never stopped, transactions never ceased, and the name was never forgotten. Time itself is a filter; those who endure become "blue-chip meme coins," while challengers still have to prove they can survive to the next cycle.
So, in every market cycle, new coins create novelty, and DOGE provides consensus. Tonight, the real trade in PPI is not inflation, but how tough the Federal Reserve can still be.
The first layer looks at expectations. August PPI year-over-year expectation is 5.3, previous value 4.7; month-over-month expectation is 0.4, previous value 0. The market has already accepted the reheating of producer prices, so data slightly above expectations may not be enough to create a sustained trend; only a significant deviation will drive repricing.
The second layer looks at foreign exchange. If data is high, the dollar and short-term US Treasury yields usually benefit, while the euro, pound, and yen against the dollar tend to come under pressure; if data is low, the dollar's interest rate advantage may temporarily narrow.
The third layer looks at crypto. $BTC is most sensitive to USD liquidity and interest rate expectations; $ETH, besides macro pressure, also depends on its own capital absorption; $SOL, BNB, and altcoins are more elastic, usually pulling back deeper when data is hot and rebounding faster when data is cold.
The fourth layer looks at the combination. Initial jobless claims expectation is 205,000. Hot PPI combined with low initial claims leans toward a strong economy and high inflation; cold PPI combined with rising claims leans toward cooling inflation and weakening employment. If the two conflict, the market tends to first rush one way, then quickly reverse.
Do you think the funds tonight focus more on PPI, or treat it as a probe before CPI? Share your basis, and let's verify together.
The above is just personal thinking and does not constitute investment advice. #财报观察员：甲骨文与Adobe今晚交卷 #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 Tonight (September 10) at 20:30, the US August PPI will be released first; Tomorrow night (September 11) at 20:30, the August CPI will follow closely behind. These two inflation data sets are the last and most important references before the Fed's rate decision on September 16. The market expects the overall August CPI year-on-year to be about 3.4%, and core CPI to about 2.4% year-on-year. Currently, the market still prices a 25 basis point rate hike in September at around 60%, and there is clear internal disagreement within the Fed on whether to further tighten policy. If both PPI and CPI continue to exceed expectations, rate hike expectations will heat up further; If core inflation continues to decline, the reason to hold on will strengthen. What do these two data points mean for the crypto assets in my hands? 1. What I'm most anxious about right now is whether tonight's PPI will "stab first." Many people focus all their attention on tomorrow night's CPI, but I'm actually more nervous about tonight's PPI. The reason is simple: PPI is a "prelude." Market consensus expects PPI to rise 0.4% month-on-month and 5.3% year-on-year, with core PPI 4.7% year-on-year. If tonight's PPI far exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations may surge early, and my position has already been shaken up before CPI even gets there. More importantly, PPI reflects cost pressures on the corporate side—oil prices, transportation, raw materials. If PPI confirms costs are being passed on to consumers, the probability of a hot CPI tomorrow night will also increase, creating a "double kill" expectation. 2. Tomorrow night's CPPI is a preview; CPI is the main course.
The market always plays a repeated game before data release,
Both low readings tend to spike up, both high readings tend to plunge,
But when one is high and the other low, always rely on CPI.
Macroeconomics can only observe the big picture,
It cannot be directly used to bet on contract one-sidedness.
The instant spikes when data comes out are often illusions,
Be patient to wait for market confirmation, don't chase impulses, don't bet on news.
Respect leverage; principal is always more important than temporary profits and losses. September 9 US spot ETF: BTC net outflow of $120 million, second consecutive day; ETH inflow +$34.8 million, XRP and SOL each about +$12 million. Price-wise, BTC pulled back near 78,000, about -2% in 24 hours; contract liquidations about $386 million, longs $270 million, shorts $117 million. Meme coins fell harder than BTC.
This is not a full retreat. Institutions are reducing BTC exposure while moving funds into ETH and some altcoin ETFs. Oil prices have climbed back above $100, the 10-year US Treasury yield is about 4.85%, and the probability of a rate hike has risen to around 60%. Macro factors are suppressing risk appetite, but funds have not exited crypto, just shifted positions.
Spot: BTC pulling back to 78,000 and holding can be considered a base position for observation; don’t cut just because the ETF outflowed for one day. Contracts: liquidation just went through a round, don’t chase shorts or use high leverage to buy at 78,000. The trading range remains; wait for tomorrow’s CPI.
Watch two things: whether BTC spot ETF will still be issued tomorrow, and whether the 78,000 daily line holds. If outflows continue and price drops to the bottom of the range, reduce contracts first; if inflows turn positive and price holds, keep holding spot. I really admire the German Ministry of Finance for this move. A 25% unified tax rate, and after December 31, 2026, Bitcoin purchased will no longer be tax-exempt for one year, and from 2028, the platform will withhold it directly.
What I admire is not the tax rate, but the timing. Old currency before the deadline remains duty-free, while new currency is uniformly cut, effectively putting long-term holders and latecomers under two tax regimes.
Even worse, the transfer platform couldn't cover the costs—25% was calculated based on the total sale amount, not on profit.
From the perspective of a counterparty, this essentially imposes a migration cost on German buyers, so before selling, they need to carefully consider where the proof lies.
The policy is still in the proposal stage, but the direction has already been set. If it really gets implemented, will the coins you hold be considered old or new?
#BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负
#伊朗允许BTC与USDT外贸结算 #BTC与黄金90日相关性升至 +0.50 $BTC The pressure of oil prices on the stock market, though delayed, has arrived. For example, the representative storage trio has dropped quite a bit. Let's see how it continues when the market opens. Normally, WTI breaking 100 is just a tremor away; once it breaks, the US stock market might have to squeeze out another bubble.
First, let's look at the PPI data in half an hour, then quietly wait for tomorrow night's CPI to decide the fate.
If PPI/CPI pushes up the probability of rate hikes, and oil prices break 100 and stay high,
then the market will start trading on the expectation of two rate hikes within the year. At that time, various risk assets including gold, US stocks, and Bitcoin will likely pull back. #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 $CL It shot up to $627 within minutes of going live, then immediately crashed down to $1 with a huge bearish candle, a 99% drop. I was staring dumbfounded at the $LAPTOP candlestick plunging straight to the ground.
Riding on Hunter Biden's hype to show off, the total supply is only 100 million tokens, with the team holding 30%, and the top five wallets controlling a staggering 84%. This isn't about issuing tokens to build a community; it's clearly a setup for a meat grinder robbery.
Many retail investors got dazzled by the fake market cap worth billions of dollars but never did the math. This kind of pool is as thin as paper; the whales use a few related wallets to buy and sell among themselves, spending just tens of thousands of USDT to pump the price sky-high. When everyone rushes in seeing the explosive rise on the leaderboard, the whales flip and dump that 84% of cheap tokens onto the hot money that just entered, draining the pool in minutes and cashing out.
Honestly, when it first launched, Twitter and chat groups were going crazy, and I almost got itchy to throw in 500 USDT to try a short-term rebound. But I was holding BTC spot quietly, and whenever I see these hot plays, I can't help but want to sneak a quick profit. Luckily, I checked the on-chain concentration of holdings and saw the numbers for the top five holders, which scared me so much I quickly canceled my buy order.
Of course, if the whales have a conscience later and pull a second wave to save themselves, I'll accept missing out, but I really don't dare to bet real money on a known scammer's conscience.
Anyway, I absolutely refuse to touch this kind of scheme again. Do you guys usually check the top ten holdings before rushing into on-chain dog coins? Did anyone here pay the tuition fee today on this one?The GENIUS Act has completely transformed the stablecoin market. The world's largest credit card company, Visa, openly stated: last year's passage of the bill was a huge turning point, and now major banks and payment companies are scrambling to partner with Visa on stablecoin solutions. Meanwhile, Circle officially announced the acquisition of Singapore payment company Tazapay for $400 million in an all-stock deal—this company processes over $25 billion annually, collaborating with more than 60 banks and FinTech partners, serving over 100 markets. After the acquisition, $CRCL will be able to provide more comprehensive 24/7 global stablecoin payment services, and their ultimate goal is to make $USDC the default payment method for every merchant worldwide. The contrast is even clearer: stablecoins gain transparency with legislation, while the entire crypto market still lacks a Market Structure Bill—this is the significance of the Clarity Act vote on September 15. Currently, the market only assigns a 15% chance of passage, with no price in for the possibility of approval. BTC is once again approaching $77,900 tonight, and the US spot ETF has seen net outflows for the second consecutive trading day, with both price and institutional buying weakening.
Farside's final report shows a total net outflow of $166.8 million from September 8 to 9; BTC has dropped nearly $2,000 from yesterday afternoon's high of $79,768. The two-day outflow has not yet offset the large inflows from previous trading days, so concluding that institutions are retreating is premature. But the short-term implication is clear: when spot buying pauses and leverage rates do not significantly decrease, support around $77,700 will rely more on native exchanges.
I will not chase shorts at the low tonight; core spot holdings remain unchanged, and I will not add small caps either. One hour after the US stock market opens, if BTC still fails to reclaim $78,300, I will maintain a defensive stance; if it climbs back above $78,700 with increased volume, I will treat the outflows over the past two days as profit-taking.
Data sources: Farside, OKX. Personal record, not investment advice. $BTC Two veteran hype groups both went silent today
These two veteran hype groups in the crypto circle seem to have been muted simultaneously today.
$XRP is around $1.39, down about 2% in 24 hours, giving back the 28% gain from August bit by bit; $DOGE is stuck at $0.09, fluctuating less than 1% in a day, barely twitching.
These two have always been barometers of retail sentiment. Before the CPI, speculative funds collectively withdrew, so the barometers naturally stopped moving first. The unlocking of 1 billion XRP at the beginning of the month didn’t cause a deep pit, indicating there is support underneath, but buyers are unwilling to push prices up before the data release, so both bulls and bears are playing dead.
If the data is soft, XRP could first target $1.45, DOGE $0.095; if the data is strong, XRP may fall back to $1.35, DOGE to $0.087. When the barometers don’t move, the best posture is to lie low and not pick a market direction prematurely.
The biggest fear for popular coins is not a drop, but lack of popularity. The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
#BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负 #财报观察员：甲骨文与Adobe今晚交卷 Bitcoin is down ~12% since January.
Coin-denominated open interest? Flat.
June low near $58.5k. August tag of $80k.
The actual $BTC sitting in perps barely moved.
USD OI just tracks price because of the unit effect.
2026 was not a growing pile of Bitcoin in futures.
Spot did the heavy lifting.
Seeing more flow in spot or in perps right now ?#BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负
BTC spot ETFs attracted nearly $1 billion in inflows during the week, but on September 8th, they turned negative with an outflow of $46.6 million — is this normal fluctuation or a signal of slowing institutional buying?
Strong earlier performance: From September 2 to 4, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs had a cumulative net inflow of about $1.01 billion; combined with August 31 and September 1, the weekly net inflow was about $987 million, marking a third consecutive week of net inflows. BlackRock's IBIT contributed about 70% of the inflows, indicating a very high concentration of funds.
On September 8, funds turned to a net outflow of about $46.6 million, mainly dragged down by redemptions from GBTC and FBTC, but IBIT and BITB still maintained inflows, showing that funds were not fully withdrawing.
Why did BTC fall below $79,000 despite ETF inflows? Against the backdrop of continued ETF inflows, BTC briefly dropped below $79,000. The new ETF demand may have been offset by the following forces: on-chain profit-taking sales, derivatives market hedging, and overall selling pressure from the macro environment.
The $46.6 million outflow is very limited compared to previous inflow scales and is not enough to confirm a trend reversal. However, CPI, oil prices, and interest rate hike expectations are genuinely testing the resilience of institutional demand.
Funds have not fully withdrawn, but during a period of rising macro uncertainty, the pace of institutional inflows is being reassessed. Whether the single-day negative turn is noise or a turning point, the ETF data in the coming days will be crucial.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC At 20:30 tonight, the PPI is at the same time tomorrow. With both figures coming side by side, the market has already started to shrink volume and wait and see. PPI is expected to be 5.3% year-on-year, compared to 4.7% previously—this figure is already quite high. But honestly, PPI is just the appetizer; tomorrow's CPI will really determine the direction. If the PPI exceeds expectations, it's at most a shock; if it does, a rate hike in September is basically confirmed. The most obvious feature of the market now is a surge and then a retreat; no single stock can move one-sided. $BTC Last night it hit 79,737, I thought it was about to hit 80,000, but it crashed straight to 77,700 in the early morning—a single upper shadow is longer than anything else. $ETH Even weaker, 2522 touched once and then came back, now it's shaking near 2450, barely holding above 2500. $ZEC also surged to break 1300 and then pulled back to rub above 1200. It's not that there's no capital pulling up, but that once it rises, people are dumping. No one wants to hold positions overnight before the data comes out. The US market is the same. SanDisk surged to 1800+ during trading yesterday, then dropped directly to the 1800 resistance level at the close. Currently, selling pressure is still heavy. Goldman Sachs set a target price of 2200, but it's useless. Macro pressure is holding it down, and if it rises too much, someone will cash in. SpaceX is even more impressive—it just regained a market cap of 2 trillion the day before yesterday, dropped 3.86% yesterday, closing at 146, down 32% from the high of 225. Such high-valuation stocks are the first to be sold when facing rate hike expectations. Thinking about it, it's understandable—two data points hanging there, with a rate hike probability of 60%.$SNDK Recently, the market has been waiting for positive news from the Huahui TMT conference, but the conference only reiterated old logic and did not release any unexpected positive news. The good news has been realized and turned into bad news, with no new narrative to hype.
The recent market is also weak, but SNDK is still pushing hard against the trend, mainly driven by market sentiment and capital pooling.
Folks, does my $SNDK still have hope for a turnaround? #财报观察员：甲骨文与Adobe今晚交卷 #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 PPI night, volatility is coming soon! At 20:30!
🔥 Tonight's US August PPI expectations:
Overall month-on-month +0.4%, year-on-year about +5.3%, core month-on-month +0.3%, year-on-year about +4.6%;
Previous values overall 0/4.7%, core 0.2/4.2
⛽️ The overall rise is mainly driven by oil prices breaking 100, energy, and some tariff costs, while the core reflects underlying pressure from services and intermediate inputs.
🪙 The transmission to crypto depends only on policy expectations:
Hot PPI → expectation of wholesale inflation transmitting to CPI/PCE strengthens → September rate hike pricing rises (currently about 60% at CME betting on a 25bp hike) → 10-year US Treasury and dollar rise → opportunity cost of non-interest assets increases, BTC valuation under pressure
Scenarios:
1️⃣ Both overall and core exceed expectations (overall month-on-month >0.4%, core >0.3%), the hawkish pressure is heaviest, risk appetite cools;
2️⃣ Only overall is high due to energy, core meets or is below 0.3%, hawkish signals are discounted because energy transmission to consumer prices is lagged;
3️⃣ Both overall and core are below expectations (core month-on-month ≤0.2% is best), rate hike expectations fall, US Treasury and dollar weaken, more favorable for BTC/ETH and altcoin liquidity expectations.
Tonight's PPI is just the first piece before the September meeting
Tomorrow's CPI, especially core, is the final inflation tone
A single PPI does not change the medium-term path
Get your bullets and positions ready!
#PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 The 78,200 level is considered by most as a bottom-fishing zone, but I prefer to call it a left-side probing area.
The repeated failure to break 80,000 indicates that buyers are waiting for PPI and CPI data to be released. ETF single-day net outflow reached 46.65 million USD, and oil prices along with the 10Y yield are suppressing valuations, so there is no reason for funds to enter early. The chain reaction is: the lighter the trading before the data release, the greater the slippage when the breakout occurs.
Therefore, if you are out of position, there is no need to chase. Wait for a pullback to 76,000 to 77,500 to scale in gradually; if it falls below 77,500, admit the mistake. Only a break above 80,000 confirms the right side.
The real question is, if the data is positive but 80,000 still cannot hold, will you interpret it as a shakeout or as the end of the rebound?
#BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负
#PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 #布油重返100美元，特朗普称选后将下跌 $ETH #加密财库分化：买币还是回购？
Strategy just resumed buying coins for a week before pausing again, then turned to repurchasing preferred shares; BitMine, however, has been consistently buying Ethereum for 66 consecutive weeks. One hesitates, the other persists, and the "consensus expectations" of the coin hoarding era are breaking down.
Last week, Strategy repurchased $176 million worth of STRC preferred shares, doubling the repurchase plan cap from 1 billion to 2 billion. Its holding of 845,050 BTC remained unchanged, as did its $6.5 billion cash reserve. A week ago, it ended a ten-week pause and bought 4,603 BTC at an average price of $80,318. The rhythm of pausing, resuming, and pausing again is getting shorter, indicating that Saylor himself is hesitating.
BitMine is completely different. Last week, it increased its holdings by 28,086 ETH, buying every week for 66 consecutive weeks. Its total holdings are 5.929 million ETH, accounting for 4.9% of Ethereum's total supply. 86% of ETH is staked, generating an annual staking yield of about $330 million. One relies on "buying to earn yield," the other on "holding to wait for appreciation"—the underlying logic is completely different.
The divergence between these two paths essentially reflects the market's vote on the sustainability of the "coin hoarding model." The market is shifting from "who buys more" to "whose business model can survive in a low-premium environment." Strategy is prioritizing preserving its balance sheet, while BitMine continues to expand—there is no absolute right or wrong, but the directions are clearly distinct.The current crypto market is very contradictory: the technical side has just turned strong, but the macro environment is pouring cold water in the opposite direction. BTC's 50-day moving average has crossed above the 200-day moving average, forming the first golden cross since May 2025; meanwhile, crude oil has broken through $100, and the US 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 4.85%, so the valuation pressure on risk assets has not disappeared.
$BTC is currently around $77,900, having rebounded continuously before falling back below the $80,000 mark. In the last three trading days, spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net inflow of about $1.01 billion, indicating that this rally is not just a contract short squeeze, but institutional funds are indeed re-entering the market. However, the golden cross is essentially a lagging indicator and does not mean the price must rise on the day it appears. I am more focused on whether the $77,500–$78,000 level can hold; only by firmly standing above $80,000 again will there be a chance to challenge $83,000–$84,000. If ETFs continue to flow in but the price consistently fails to break through $80,000, be cautious that the overhead supply might be using the positive news to unload.
$XAU spot gold is around $4,405. High yields are generally unfavorable for gold, but geopolitical conflicts, rising oil prices, and US debt concerns are creating safe-haven demand. Gold mainly trades on credit and war risks, while BTC trades on liquidity and institutional allocation, so both can rise simultaneously or suddenly diverge. The upcoming CPI data will be the real judge: if the data is soft, both gold and BTC have room to recover; if inflation exceeds expectations, BTC may face a more direct impact.
#BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负 Just saw someone in the group post a screenshot showing an ETF net outflow of 46.6 million, sounding quite panicked. Brother, if you can't sleep over these few numbers every day, then this bull market might really be hard for you to profit from.
Let's not be misled by clickbait headlines. Let's dig into the data and look at the structure: who's running? GBTC and FBTC. Who's still buying? BlackRock's IBIT. Grayscale's historically high fees mean funds are moving to cheaper places, or after three weeks of gains, institutions are slightly reducing positions to catch their breath. Isn't this just Wall Street's most basic routine portfolio adjustment?
Interpreting this as a "market cooling" is a narrow view.
Going deeper, many people don't understand the essence of ETF fund outflows. Often, institutions are playing cash-and-carry arbitrage (buying ETFs, shorting futures). When futures premiums narrow and there's no profit, ETF funds naturally withdraw. This money was never a solid direct buy in the spot market; it's a financial engineering game.
To answer the question in the announcement: Is ETF capital the most important driver of this market? My answer is: it's the fuse, the accelerator, but definitely not the engine.
What is the engine? It's the Fed's rate cut expectations, the crazy daily issuance of tens of billions of USDT and USDC, and the strength or weakness of spot buying by Americans on Coinbase. You keep staring at how much water is flowing from the faucet (ETF), but fail to notice the inlet under the pool (macro liquidity) is wide open — that's being blinded by the obvious.
So what should you do next?
Honestly, the worst thing is to be startled by the data. My strategy has never changed: as long as no black swan appears in macro, I hold my core positions firmly through the big cycle, unshakable, no one can wash me out. If it dares to create a dip due to this emotional overreaction, I will use spare funds to buy the bleeding chips in batches. As for big money, I'd rather wait for a volume breakout above the previous high to chase the rally on the right side, never gamble on direction in this choppy range getting cut repeatedly by manipulative whales.
Making money in crypto relies on patience. When ETF funds flow back in, don't just watch single-day inflows; focus on stablecoin issuance and Coinbase premium index — those are the real signals of real money.
Don't let daily ETF flows of tens of millions of dollars dictate your investment decisions worth tens of thousands. What's your current status? Fully invested holding through or empty waiting for a dip? Let's chat in the comments and keep each other warm.
$BTC #BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负 #BTC与黄金90日相关性升至+0.50 I’m watching this from a mid-term perspective. Iran reportedly allowing $BTC and $USDT in cross-border trade settlement is interesting—but I wouldn’t interpret it as Iran suddenly “joining the crypto bull market.” It looks more like financial pressure forcing alternative payment rails. With sanctions restricting access to traditional banking channels and SWIFT, Iran has limited options for settling international trade. Using crypto and stablecoins could provide another route for transactions invBank channels are completely blocked! Iran officially announces on-chain settlement, the true era of crypto as a necessity has arrived🔥
What was bound to happen has finally come! The traditional banking route is completely impassable, and on-chain settlement officially steps onto the national foreign trade stage.
Iran officially announces policy relaxation, allowing BTC and USDT to be directly used for foreign trade cross-border settlements. Many only see the surface-level benefits but fail to grasp the truly disruptive significance behind it — this is far more important than a single country buying Bitcoin.
Under the increasingly stringent US sanctions, the traditional dollar system and cross-border banking payment channels continue to be paralyzed, severely restricting conventional foreign trade capital flows. When traditional finance routes are blocked, the only option is to open on-chain channels; this is a transformation driven by necessity.
More importantly, Iran is not an isolated case, nor will it be the last. In the future, more countries facing sanctions, foreign exchange shortages, and continuous local currency depreciation will gradually embrace crypto assets for cross-border settlements.
At this point, Crypto completely breaks free from the single label of "speculative risk asset" and becomes a core alternative channel outside the global traditional financial system.
The division of roles is also completely clear:
BTC is responsible for cross-regional, barrier-free value transfer, breaking financial blockade restrictions;
USDT is responsible for pegging to the US dollar valuation, stabilizing settlement exchange rates, and adapting to foreign trade transaction needs.
This is precisely the most core real-world application scenario for stablecoins and Bitcoin, and the most authentic value foundation of the crypto industry.
The more traditional finance is blocked and restrictions tighten, the stronger the demand for decentralized on-chain settlement becomes. $FIL I didn't expect to break even, but it directly brought me to profit. This service is top-notch.
During the intraday plunge, the screen was full of red, everyone was running, but I kept an eye on FIL around 0.8081 without following the drop—it bottomed out several times but didn't break the level. Emotional stop-losses are easiest to get trapped at times like this, so I chose to do the opposite and took a long position. Now the price has risen to 0.8099, with a floating profit of +9.89%. The earlier panic has turned into confidence 🤑
Don't be greedy, follow the rules: take profit at 75%, secure the gains first; move the stop-loss above the cost price for the remaining 25% and let it run. Money in hand is real money; numbers on the screen are just stories. Better to miss a limit-up than to catch a flying knife and end up with a bloody hand.
For those who didn't get in this round, don't rush now; the position is no longer right. Wait for me to see the structure and give a signal for the next comfortable entry point. Hold as long as the trend is intact; run when it breaks. Don't fall in love with candlesticks.
$LAB $BTC $BTC Iran has just announced that it will temporarily stop charging the 10% energy shipping surcharge. In simple terms, it means that after intense maritime tensions with the US, they are now easing off to leave themselves some room. So what impact does this have on the crypto world and oil prices that we care about?
Let's start with oil prices. In the short term, this is definitely good news. The Strait of Hormuz was extremely tense before, with one-third of the world's oil passing through there. When shipping costs rise, oil prices surge accordingly. Now that Iran is temporarily not charging this fee, transportation pressure eases a bit, and the upward momentum of oil prices is somewhat restrained. But note, this is only a "pause," not a "cancellation." Iran can resume charging at any time, so oil prices will still fluctuate as expected.
#Now about the crypto world. Bitcoin has recently been moving closer to gold; when geopolitical tensions rise, safe-haven funds flow in. Now that the situation has slightly cooled down, this safe-haven momentum might take a break. But don't expect Bitcoin to settle down—it’s inherently volatile. If gold stops rising, Bitcoin might turn to follow the US stock market. Its ups and downs depend entirely on market sentiment.
In summary: Iran's move is a tactical easing, not a genuine concession. Oil price pressure is temporarily relieved, and crypto safe-haven sentiment has cooled a bit, but the powder keg remains and could explode again at any time. Don't let this breather lower your guard; keep watching the market as usual.US Treasury yields have risen again
The 10-year yield almost touched 4.85%
Directly hitting a new high since November 2023
The Treasury Department was still talking about buybacks during the day
But yields didn't ease
Meanwhile, $BTC is still hovering around 78,000
The intraday high touched 79,600 then slid back
Almost lost one percent in a day
My judgment is simple
Rates are firm, risk appetite is weak
Don't take the buyback news as a signal of easing
First, watch if yields can turn around Lock in tonight at 20:30 for the decisive battle of PPI.
In the past, the market mostly focused only on CPI, with PPI often treated as a supporting role, merely reflecting cost fluctuations at the upstream factory end. But tonight's PPI carries a different weight. With current oil prices remaining high and manufacturing orders warming up, the transmission effect of upstream industrial product prices is strengthening. PPI will preemptively predict the subsequent trend of CPI and serves as a leading indicator of inflation.
PPI data directly affects market pricing of Federal Reserve rate expectations, U.S. Treasury yields across the curve, and the strength of the dollar:
If PPI exceeds expectations, it indicates rising upstream production costs, which will subsequently transmit downstream to push up consumer inflation. The market will reprice for higher rates to be maintained longer, U.S. Treasury yields will rise, and global risk assets will be drained;
If PPI falls below expectations, it means upstream cost pressures are easing, there is no risk of a secondary inflation rebound, opening space for the Fed to cut rates later, and U.S. Treasury yields will face downward pressure.
The current market has already preemptively priced in CPI's inflation resilience. PPI is used to verify whether inflation is a short-term rebound or a persistent stickiness. If PPI weakens tonight, it confirms no upstream price pressure, and CPI inflation pressure is just a short-term disturbance. Interest-free assets and the crypto market will see valuation recovery; if PPI exceeds expectations and rises, the market will worry about inflation rising again, directly suppressing the rebound in risk assets.
#PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日
#BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负 🐊 Friday’s CPI doesn’t automatically mean BTC will accelerate lower.
The market trades the expectation gap, not the headline itself.
CPI above expectations + a major repricing of the Fed’s rate path = real downside risk.
But if data is near expectations, much of the hike narrative may already be priced in.
Don’t trade the story. Wait for the data, then trade the price.
$BTC $ETH #CPI与PPI同步降温 #加息分歧扩大
#OracleAdobeToday
#PPIandCPIWatch
#OutcomesOnOrbit Iran is increasingly using crypto as a trade-settlement rail.
Exporters can now use domestic exchanges and assets like $USDT and $BTC to repatriate earnings and finance imports, bypassing traditional FX channels.
The scale is significant, but there’s a key weakness: USDT is fast and dollar-linked, yet it can be frozen by its issuer. Bitcoin can’t.
That creates a bigger question:
Does crypto’s future depend more on settlement speed—or censorship resistance?
#IranCryptoTrade It seems the blond guy is also in a hurry. For the midterm elections, he's started handing out money to win votes.
Just now, Trump directly stated: If the Republican Party wins both the Senate and the House in the midterm elections, $5000 will be given to every adult American citizen, and this money must be spent within the United States. The name has already been decided—"Trump Dividend."
What does $5000 mean? For one adult, that's over 30,000 RMB. If a family of four are all adults, that's directly $20,000.
My first reaction upon seeing this news wasn't whether Americans can get the money, but—if this money really gets distributed, the market will probably start flooding with liquidity again, right? 😂
After all, such a large cash stimulus, once actually implemented, could involve a fund scale exceeding $1 trillion. Of course, this is still just Trump's campaign promise; there is no clear plan on how to raise the money or pass it through Congress yet.
$BTC At 19:38 on September 10, SOL was about $101.5, with OKX and Binance both showing a 24-hour drop of about 2.2%. The price is retreating, but on-chain funds have not withdrawn accordingly.
DeFiLlama snapshots at the same time show Solana stablecoin supply at about $16.51 billion, an increase of about $474 million or nearly 3% since September 3; DeFi TVL rose from about $5.709 billion to $5.834 billion, an increase of about 2.2%. DEX trading volume in the past 7 days was about $17.54 billion, up 4.1% from the previous 7 days, with about $3.0 billion in the last 24 hours, a daily increase of 10.7%. Solana official RPC at 19:38 recorded three 60-second samples of non-voting transactions between about 86,000 and 99,000, indicating network activity is still ongoing.
This divergence is more like "liquidity still remains on the scene" and cannot be directly translated as SOL about to rebound. Stablecoins may just be settlement or inventory waiting; the DEX volume increase may also come from short-term themes; TVL is also affected by asset prices. If the price continues to weaken later but stablecoins and TVL hold steady, it means funds still have patience; if both decline along with trading volume, that is a more complete signal of a retreat.
Would you view this $474 million increase as funds waiting to enter the market or as trading settlement inventory? If SOL continues to weaken, do you look at TVL first or DEX volume?
Personal opinion, for reference only. #SOL #Solana #OnChainDataPharaoh’s Market Watch
BTC ETFs posted $3.8B in inflows over three weeks, but the momentum quickly reversed.
On Sept. 8, ETFs recorded a $46.46M net outflow, while Sept. 1 saw a much larger $236M outflow. Despite the recent inflows, ETFs remain about $1B net negative YTD, with flows heavily concentrated in IBIT and FBTC.
This looks more like sentiment recovery than a strong, broad trend. With U.S. CPI on Sept. 11 and the FOMC on Sept. 15–16, markets may stay cautious until the data lands. Dropped 84%, looks cheap? Retail investors want to bottom-fish waiting for a rise? First, check how much money is actually on its chain!
When a coin drops 80%, the most common mistake is to judge its depth using the exchange's order book.
$CP looks normal on CEX: there are orders, trades, and candlesticks. But when you pull it onto the chain, the picture is completely different. It has 51 liquidity pools on Base, with a total liquidity of only $240,000. 51 pools, $240,000 total, averaging less than $5,000 per pool.
And 94.5% of the 24-hour trading volume is squeezed into just one pool, the remaining 50 are basically decorations.
More glaring: 10 stablecoin quote pools have prices ranging from 0.0177 to 1.766, a 99.7x difference. The same coin, at the same time, different pools quote prices with a 99x spread.
This shows $CP has no real pricing, only a bunch of shallow pools. The 24-hour trading volume is about $2.4 million, but the on-chain liquidity supporting it is only $240,000 — trading volume is 10 times the liquidity. Someone dumping $100,000 can create a visibly large pit.
Current price 0.01444, daily low 0.01412. First day 0.0885, down 83.7% in 8 trading days.
Judgment: It’s not that it has bottomed out, but that hardly anyone is playing anymore. Focus on liquidity first, don’t just stare at the candlesticks! #CLARITY法案9月15日闯关，60票成关键 9月10日加密市场整体偏弱，$BTC 在78000附近震荡，$ETH 在2450附近。大盘目前最大的变量不是某个币，而是美国通胀+美联储预期。今天PPI、明天CPI接连公布，同时10年美债收益率接近4.85%，叠加油价重新站上100美元，市场开始担心“通胀重新抬头”，这对高风险资产明显不利。
但也别过度看空：BTC技术面刚出现久违的50日线上穿200日线（金叉），且近期美股比特币ETF连续出现资金流入，说明中期资金并没有明显撤退。真正的压力位还是80000—84000区域，突破并站稳，才有机会重新打开上行空间。
ETH反而值得观察。此前10天上涨约37%后，目前处于高位整理，技术上类似旗形整理，向上突破可看3000附近；但2350—2360是重要防守位，跌破则意味着这轮结构明显转弱。
我的判断：短线别追涨，等数据落地。BTC看80000能否有效突破，ETH看2360能否守住。今晚到明天，宏观数据很可能决定下一波方向。1. Official Strike: Seizing 'Underground Taobao' and Freezing $52 Million According to the US Department of Justice's official website, its 'Anti-Fraud Center Task Force' recently took a major hit, shutting down a major illegal fraud marketplace mainly targeting China (i.e., 'Xinbi Guarantee'), and freezing up to $52 million in cryptocurrency fraud money laundering funds in a single day. This platform has long provided 'underground guarantee' services for money laundering, fake website setup, and other 'underground guarantees' for telecom fraud zones in Southeast Asia, with cases involving an astonishing scale. Stablecoin issuer Tether cooperated with global law enforcement and has judicially frozen more than 50 black market addresses involved in the case. 2. Platform "playing the victim": Outwardly condemning, but actually covering up the collapse The announcement sent to users by the "new coin" platform in Figure 1 is precisely the "crisis PR" after the seizure. The platform claims "TEDA is arbitrarily frozen" and "deposits are judicially frozen," presenting itself as a victim and urging users to "hold other stable cryptocurrencies to share the risk." In reality, this is a typical shift of blame after the black and gray industry platform's capital chain is severed—it wants users to exchange their frozen USDT (high-risk) for other, harder coins to trace (such as USDD) to transfer remaining assets and evade regulation. 3. Warning to ordinary people: Never believe in "risk-sharing" • Frozen money is black money: This USDT freeze targets addresses involved in telecom fraud and money laundering. Legitimate use is unaffected, but "dirty money" with dirty money will indeed be held accountable and frozen. • Beware of secondary harvesting: The platform calls for coin swaps, go toAfter the last PPI release, $BTC rose 26% in 8 days. That kind of market doesn't need explanation; those who held on know exactly what it feels like.
Today, the same data is coming again.
The market has already priced in high volatility expectations. Options, funding rates, order books—all are waiting for a direction.
But the truly critical question remains the simplest: how much does the actual value differ from expectations?
The macro environment is indeed different from last time. Oil prices hover around 100, US Treasury yields remain high, and rate hike expectations are still pressing down. Last time, PPI was entirely below expectations, giving the market a clear reason; this time, whether that reason still exists, no one can know in advance.
If inflation data cools down, even slightly, the shorts above BTC become ready fuel, and 80K to 82K is not far off.
If the data is hotter, 78K might be tested first, then below that lies an even thinner liquidity zone. At that point, the question isn't how much you make, but whether you can hold on.
History doesn't simply repeat itself, but human nature in betting hasn't changed.
Only this time, will a 26% rally happen again?
At the moment the data is released, no one will look away.
Inflation—this time, will it still give the bulls a reason?
#PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 Is the small bull market over?
I think it's still too early to draw conclusions now.
The crypto market has started to cool down these days, and $BTC has fallen from above $80,000 to around $78,000. Many people have already started asking: is this small bull market over?
I don't think so.
This correction has a very clear time point, which is the US CPI on September 11. The market is currently very divided on whether the Fed will raise interest rates in September. The strong non-farm payrolls earlier have pushed up rate hike expectations again, so it is normal for funds to proactively reduce risk before the CPI.
More importantly, last week the US BTC spot ETF still had nearly $987 million in net inflows, and it has been net inflows for three consecutive weeks. At least from this data, it cannot be directly defined as a full-scale capital withdrawal.
So although I have recently turned conservative and reduced leverage, I have not become bearish on the subsequent market.
It now looks more like waiting for the CPI to reprice the market, rather than confirming the end of the small bull market.
If the CPI is lower than expected and rate hike expectations cool down, the macro risks suppressing the market these days may be quickly lifted.
I still watch that level: as long as $BTC does not effectively break below $76,000, I will temporarily not change my judgment on this market.
#PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 #BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负 This round of market activity did not repeat the extreme shakeouts seen in previous cycles. On-chain data shows that among holders who entered the market after 2022, about 72%–78% of supply was in a loss, but now this proportion has started to decline significantly. This means that after stress testing, some tokens are returning to profitable territory. 👀 More importantly, this time the market doesn't seem to need to wait for over 90% of tokens to fully lose money before structural recovery has already occurred. This may indicate two things: 🐋 weak players are being cleared 💎 out, long-term holders are more 📉 willing to hold positions, selling pressure is gradually being absorbed 📈 by the market, and new supply is being taken away by stronger funds. Combined with BTC's recent repeated fluctuations in the $77K–$80K range, as well as the upcoming US CPI and Fed interest rate meetings, the upcoming price reaction will be critical. If the supply at a loss continues to decline, long-term holders keep absorbing chips, and macroeconomic pressure eases, then this adjustment may not be a signal at the top of the cycle, but could instead serve as a preliminary preparation for the next round of $BTC-level expansion. 🚀 What truly matters is not just how much the price has risen, but who is still selling and who is buying #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #OnChain #DailyOrbit #CPI #FedIn the early morning of September 10, $SOL followed the overall market downward. It dropped about two points in a day, with the price hovering just above one hundred, touching near one hundred at its lowest, and now fluctuating around one hundred and a few. To put it bluntly, the psychological barrier at one hundred is being watched closely by everyone, but no one is confident it can hold.
The real pain isn't the spot market's small drop, but the contracts. In the past day, about 142,000 people across the network were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of approximately $388 million. Among them, 70% were long positions, with about $272 million of long positions wiped out directly. Many people, crowded positions, and thin liquidity in the night session caused prices to slip slightly, triggering a chain of liquidations.
The overall market doesn't look good either. Bitcoin has been falling for several days, already close to 78,000. Ethereum has dropped below 2,500. SOL usually has active trading, but when the night session crashes, it often fluctuates more than mainstream coins. A two-point drop in the spot market doesn't look scary, but those in the contract market may have already lost their principal.
Don't be scared by the headlines. The total liquidation across the network reflects the entire market, not just SOL's account. SOL's own contract liquidations usually account for only a part of it. Oil prices are surging, interest rate expectations are tightening, risk assets are all being cut, and crypto is just following the decline.
Right now, the only thing on the market is whether the one hundred mark can hold. If it holds, the leverage washed out in the night session will be cleared first; the market may not rebound immediately afterward, but at least one layer of passive selling pressure will be removed. If it breaks, there are still stop-losses and liquidations piled up below, and volatility will increase significantly.
#财报观察员：甲骨文与Adobe今晚交卷
#PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 🇯🇵 Markets are now pricing in a 97% chance of a BOJ rate hike to 1.25%.
The yen has already jumped 3.83%, yet crypto remains resilient, with $BTC up 2.32% and $ETH gaining 4.13%.
But the bigger risk may be ahead.
A more hawkish BOJ could push the yen even higher, potentially triggering margin calls on leveraged yen-short positions and creating fresh selling pressure across $BTC and $ETH.
For crypto, the BOJ decision could become another major liquidity test. 👀
#OracleAdobeToday Currently, $BTC, $ETH, $XRP, and $DOGE are all experiencing some short-term pressure, but what is more worth watching than the price pullback is what major players are doing. On-chain data shows Bitcoin whale holdings remain around 5.1 million BTC, with no obvious signs of concentrated selling. It seems more like waiting for new macro signals. 👀 The next two points are especially important: 📅 September 11 → US CPI 📅 September 15–16 → Federal Reserve Meeting If CPI falls short of expectations and inflation eases, the market may re-bet on easing policies, giving BTC a chance to find liquidity upward. Conversely, if CPI remains hot again, the US dollar and US Treasury yields strengthen, and risk assets may face a new round of pressure. So the current whale behavior is more like: not a frenzy of selling, but waiting for confirmation. The quieter the market, the greater the volatility after the release of key data. CPI is likely to become the first trigger for the next market rally. 🔥 Don't rush to predict direction; first look at cash flows, price reactions, and whether key support is truly broken #BTC #ETH #XRP #DOGE #CPI #Fed #DailyOrbit #CryptoI even hope this mad dog zec rallies to 5000
Referencing ltc reaching a high of 130 in 2024, then oscillating widely for a year, only starting to decline at the end of last year. A very funny thing: at that time, when ltc passed through the ETF, the trading volume was only a few million daily on average, now it’s largely ignored.
The same with bch, the high point of over 600 lasted for more than a year until the real decline started on February 22nd this year, never to recover.
Why could these two trash coins stay high for a year? It’s simple: this exactly corresponds to the mining machine’s payback cycle.
These three coins share a common trait: very outdated technology but very good at storytelling. For example, bch’s story is called peer-to-peer payment.
They even give examples like South American merchants using bch for payments. This example is just too ridiculous—how do retail crypto traders in South America verify authenticity? zec is the same principle, not much different.
In short, this round of zec’s rise is due to 1~ Bitmain 2~ Grayscale (why Grayscale pushes zec like it’s on drugs? Simple, currently among altcoins held by Grayscale, only zec and hypeliquid are profitable; others like fil have crashed beyond recognition) 3~ KOLs in Europe and America who have benefited 4~ Regulatory agencies including sec and the European regulators who indirectly hype it against Quantum 5~ Hoarding miners 6~ Exchanges, likely colluding with pump-and-dump operators, seeing retail traders’ bottom cards, precisely using small amounts of funds to short the bears.
It should be said these five groups conspired to create a tulip mania scam.
Essentially, selling coins is a negative-sum game, so whose money are they making? First, retail traders who short; second, retail traders who buy the spot.
Theoretically, I think zec’s upper limit is around 1600-1800,
corresponding to an fdv of about 35 billion. Why this estimate? Luna’s peak market cap was 40 billion, and zec’s utility is probably less than luna’s. Moreover, the frenzy of Korean retail traders back then was ten times scarier than now.
zec’s business model is indeed very impressive; I think it could be written into textbooks. But the more sophisticated the internal structure, the easier it is to collapse. This is inevitable What is most worth studying about BTC now is not "how much bad news is left," but why the bad news has not yet caused the price to accelerate its breakdown.
On September 9, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $120 million; the 10-year US Treasury yield was about 4.86%, and Brent crude oil price was about $101.5. In the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidated about $389 million, of which longs accounted for $274 million.
By conventional logic, this is a set of data clearly biased toward suppression.
But BTC is still around $78,400, indicating that selling pressure has appeared but has not yet evolved into a trend of rapid decline.
The key points to watch going forward are: whether the ETF continues to have net outflows, whether US Treasury yields continue to rise, and whether PPI/CPI further raise expectations of Fed rate hikes.
If all three worsen simultaneously and BTC clearly falls below the $78,000 area, then the current "resilience" can be considered truly invalid.[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Everyone is asking Pharaoh, can BTC hold up tonight with the PPI appetizer?
Pharaoh says directly, the PPI tonight is likely to be on the hot side, but don’t panic, this is just the appetizer; tomorrow night’s CPI is the main course that will decide which way BTC will flip the table.
Why hotter? Oil prices once broke through $100, with Middle East supply disruptions pushing up energy and transportation costs. Employment data is ridiculously strong, and the Fed’s probability of a September rate hike has already hit 60%. Reuters market preview also said that high oil prices are intensifying market concerns about rising production costs. Pharaoh’s forecast is simple—PPI month-on-month +0.3% to +0.4%, core +0.2% to +0.3%. The probability of meeting or slightly exceeding expectations is 50%, significantly exceeding expectations 30%, and significantly below expectations 20%.
How will tonight’s script play out? Pharaoh leans toward “hot data → BTC first drops sharply → then recovers.” But the real direction is decided by tomorrow night’s CPI. If PPI is only slightly above expectations, the negative impact will be quickly digested; only if core PPI also significantly exceeds expectations will a sustained decline be likely.
In terms of operations, don’t heavily bet on direction before the data is released. After release, wait for the first 5-minute candle to complete—if it’s negative but doesn’t break the previous low, it’s more like a bear trap; you can wait for a pullback and then go long with a light position.
In a nutshell: PPI is the appetizer, CPI is the main course. The probability of negative impact tonight is slightly higher, but don’t rush to flip the table; wait for the main dish to be served tomorrow night. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日