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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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2465美元的ETH,你熬得住吗? 先看表面:三周窄幅盘整,散户熬到崩溃。 从8月反弹到现在,ETH就在2430-2540这个狭窄走廊里来回磨。24小时涨跌幅小到你看盘能睡着,成交量萎缩,群聊安静,推特没人讨论ETH。你开始怀疑:这货是不是真的不行了? 第一件事:ETF在偷偷买,但你只盯着价格骂娘。 美国现货ETH ETF昨日净流入3475万,BlackRock质押型产品贡献最大,扭转前一日流出。 机构不是来炒短线的,他们是来囤货的 BitMine等ETH国债公司持仓已接近流通供应的5% 质押队列显示入队需求存在,退出接近零——没人想卖 第二件事:以太坊在憋大招,只是你等不及。 Vitalik刚提出EIP-8288,面向抗量子+隐私交易。Glamsterdam升级目标Q4主网,聚焦L1扩容、并行执行、ePBS。SGX拿到CFTC批准,美国机构可以直接交易ETH永续。 以太坊在悄悄变成机构级结算层 抗量子+隐私+扩容,三张牌一起打 传统资金通道正在打开,增量资金在路上 第三件事:技术面到了一个必须做选择的时刻。 三周盘整,价格压缩在2430-2540。RSI中性,MACD走平,成交量萎缩——这是典型的“方向选择前夜”。 2550周线收盘站上,直接打开2800-3000空间。跌破2350,一切重来。 关键位置: 支撑:2460-2470(当前)、2435-2445、2350-2360(结构支撑) 阻力:2520-2535(多次受阻)、2550(生死线) 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: ETF持续流入,机构配置不停 BitMine持仓逼近5%,质押退出接近零 Glamsterdam升级Q4落地预期 50/200 EMA金叉,中期结构未破 一边是: BTC在78k承压,大盘不稳 油价高企,加息预期升温 周五CPI+下周FOMC,两颗炸弹 2550三次没过去,心理压力巨大 操作策略 短线选手: 以2460-2470为轴心做区间。守住2460轻仓试多,止损2435下方,目标2520-2535。跌破2430转看空,目标2350。突破2550站稳追多,目标2600-2700。 波段玩家: 若宏观不恶化、ETF持续流入,当前盘整是8月涨势后的健康消化。突破2550后加仓看2800-3000。无效跌破2350重新评估,可能回测2200。 长线信仰者: 2460以下分批定投。ETH是智能合约、L2、稳定币、RWA的核心结算层,质押收益+通缩+应用层叙事对机构有吸引力。2026年底目标3000-3500。 ETH现在就像2020年的比特币—— 99%的人觉得“太大了涨不动”,结果ETF通过后直接从4万干到7万。 2550突破的那一天,你会发现: 原来不是以太坊不行,是你熬不住三周的横盘。 2465这个位置,你还在车上吗? $BTC $ETH $ZEC
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
0.00109 USD for IOST, do you still dare to hold it? First, look at the surface: burn news is positive, pulse surge, then crash. On September 8, the foundation burned 70 million tokens. Once the news broke, IOST violently surged from around 0.0005, then on September 9-10 it directly shot up to 0.0024, nearly a 4x increase. Then what? It gave back 50% in one day, now at 0.00109. 24-hour trading volume exploded to hundreds of millions of dollars, futures once exceeded 2 billion, funding rates were extremely negative, shorts were squeezed out and then quickly reversed. First thing: burning 70 million sounds fierce, but you might be fooled by the number. 70 million tokens, at the current price, is just over 70,000 USD. IOST circulating supply is 35.39 billion, total supply 48.8 billion, cap 90 billion. Burn accounts for 0.2%, not even a splash. The official line is long-term token management, but frankly — symbolic significance outweighs actual deflation. Old coins hoping to turn around with one burn? Don’t be naive. This rally, the burn was just the match to ignite the fire; the real pump came from contract funds and short squeezes. Second thing: IOST is an old coin from 2018, still alive but long lost its hype. Proof of Believability consensus, high TPS service-oriented public chain, rooted in the Japanese market, trying RWA and enterprise directions. The team has recent updates: IOST Agent, Ivem SDK, security audits, browser optimization, and attended Japan WebX. But then? On-chain ecosystem, developer activity, narrative heat are far behind mainstream L1/L2. Market cap only 37 million USD, ranking nearly out of top 200. Third thing: technicals have already signaled, but you might still be fantasizing. From the August low of 0.00053 rebounded to the pulse high of 0.0024, then retraced 55% to 0.00109. Daily chart still in mid-term rebound structure, but short-term shifted from extreme overbought to correction. Volume: after pulse day’s huge volume, it fell back. If volume shrinks and consolidates, it can still digest; if volume expands and breaks below 0.00100, next stop is 0.00090. Support: 0.00100-0.00102 (psychological level + recent low) → 0.00090-0.00095 → 0.00053 (August low) Resistance: 0.00120-0.00125 → 0.00150 → 0.00180-0.00200 (previous high dense zone) Bull vs. bear, you decide On one side: Burn news positive + negative funding rate + oversold rebound demand Team continues low-intensity development, rooted in Japanese market 7-day/30-day gains still large, mid-term structure not fully broken On the other side: Burn only 0.2%, limited real impact Old coin ecosystem weak, no narrative heat Profit-taking after pulse + heavy leverage liquidation pressure US CPI tomorrow, risk appetite may tighten Heavy trapped positions at previous high 0.0024 Trading strategy Short-term: If a long lower shadow and volume contraction stabilization appear at 0.00105-0.00110, try going long with stop loss at 0.00098, target 0.00120-0.00130. If it breaks 0.001 with volume, don’t catch the falling knife, wait for 0.0009 to reassess. Mid-term: Unless there is sustained on-chain data improvement or bigger ecosystem landing, this wave is a one-time liquidity event. Wait for a large pullback to 0.0008-0.0009 with macro support, then observe in batches, strictly control position under 1%. This IOST wave is a typical old coin script — News ignition → contract pump → short squeeze → retail chasing highs → profit dump → total mess. 99% of people rushed in at the burn news, ended up trapped at the 0.0024 peak. The day 0.00100 breaks, you will realize: Old coin pumps are never to help you break even, but to make you believe there is hope, then bury you deeper. At 0.00109, do you still dare to hold? $BTC $ETH $IOST

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