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#FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm Payrolls this Friday
The last major data before the FOMC is coming! Tomorrow night's Nonfarm Payrolls could directly decide whether there will be a rate hike in September!
Currently, the market expects the US to add 56,000 jobs in August, a rebound compared to the unexpected drop of 23,000 in July, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.1%. But the data released earlier this week wasn't strong: ADP private employment only increased by 38,000, below the expected 48,000; the latest initial jobless claims were 206,000, overall still a typical "slow hiring, not many layoffs" scenario.
More interestingly, Waller suddenly turned dovish today, saying that if inflation continues to cool, rates could remain unchanged in September. Once this statement came out, the market's probability of a 25 basis point hike in September dropped directly from 59% to 46%.
So tomorrow night's Nonfarm Payrolls are very critical: if employment suddenly surges, the market might bet on a rate hike again, US Treasury yields would rise, and high-valuation tech stocks like $QQQ would face the most pressure; if the data is weak, rate hike expectations will continue to cool, and tech stocks would actually feel better.
What I most want to see now is around 40,000 to 60,000: employment not collapsing, but not giving the Fed too much reason to continue raising rates, which would be the smoothest script for the US stock market.
#FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm Payrolls this Friday ⚡ #BTC broke through 80,000 last night. The spark wasn’t from the crypto circle, but from a single statement by Waller.
Last night, BTC surged from about 77,300 to above 80,500, with an intraday high touching 81,600, roughly +5% for the day.
Remember this number first: 12 percentage points.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said at a Reuters event: if inflation continues to cool in August, he leans toward holding rates steady at the September 15–16 meeting. The gist of his statement was—"give disinflation a chance, we can wait for one more meeting." He also highlighted the Fed’s preferred inflation measure: the three-month annualized rate dropped from 4.76% in February to about 3.05% now.
Once this statement came out, the probability of a September rate hike dropped by about 12 percentage points that day, falling to around 55%. U.S. Treasury yields declined, the S&P rose about +1.1%, and the Nasdaq about +1.6%. BTC didn’t suddenly have an epiphany on its own; it loosened up alongside the shift from "rate hike likely" to "rate hike uncertain."
Here’s the catch: many will attribute this surge to ETF frenzy, major players entering, or confirmation of a new trend.
The timeline doesn’t match. On September 2, BTC hovered between 76,200 and 77,700 all day, closing around 77,300. The real vertical surge happened during the U.S. session on September 3, which is last night to early this morning Beijing time. In the previous days, the market was trading another narrative: Iran-related conflicts pushing oil prices up → inflation reigniting → higher chance of September rate hikes, keeping BTC pinned near 77,000. Waller dismantled the last link in this chain, not a new fundamental in crypto.
Three interpretations, don’t confuse them:
1 Ignition: Waller’s dovish stance pulls back rate hike expectations, loosening risk assets together.
2 Fueling: Shorts above 80,000 get squeezed, amplifying the rise.
3 Not the main cause: no new nonfarm payrolls, no new ETF single-day volume explosion, nor sudden project-side events.
Fisherman’s view in one sentence: the water temperature changed, not the tide.
Breaking through 80,000 looks good, but it’s still a loosening of expectations. The next two shots will be tougher—the August nonfarm payrolls release at 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow, then CPI on September 11, followed by the FOMC on the 15–16. If nonfarm is hot and wages rise again, the rate hike probability can immediately bounce back, and 80,000 will be given back.
The big players haven’t entered the net yet. Last night was just the pond water suddenly clearing a bit.
Do you think this surge can hold above 80,000, or will the night session profits be given back before nonfarm?
#BTC #Bitcoin #FederalReserve #FOMC #Waller #Nonfarm #RateHike #OKX #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 After three mintings totaling 167 million PYUSD, equivalent amounts were burned each time, resulting in a six-hour net supply contraction of 1.13 million
Ethereum PYUSD minted 50 million, 75 million, and 42 million tokens at 04:25, 05:17, and 05:56 respectively, followed by equivalent burn events 14, 9, and 5 minutes later. By 06:06, a total of 173.27 million tokens were minted and 174.40 million tokens burned over six hours, leading to a net supply decrease of 1.1333 million tokens.
The three large mintings totaling 167 million tokens did not result in a sustained net increase. The zero address events only prove supply changes and cannot confirm buying activity or fund destinations.
Confirmation criteria: sustained subsequent net increases that flow to labeled transaction or protocol addresses. If equivalent burns occur again, the judgment that supply has entered the market fails.
Which on-chain evidence would you consider as a confirmation signal that supply has entered the market?
Source: Ethereum Blockscout, Paxos; Blocks 25897825—25899660, verified at 06:06. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile; this article does not constitute investment advice.
#PYUSD #stablecoin Bitcoin's current upward movement faces multiple structural and technical resistances, mainly concentrated in the following ranges:
1. $83,000 to $86,000 (long-term holder supply ceiling): This is the core on-chain resistance zone in the current market. According to Glassnode data, about 1.05 million coins held by long-term holders (holding for over 6 months) are concentrated in this range. As the price approaches this area, a large amount of coins near the breakeven point may turn into substantial selling pressure.
2. $81,000 to $81,500 (short-term technical and liquidity resistance): From a technical chart perspective, $81,000 to $81,500 is a dense supply zone that suppressed price increases multiple times in May and August. Meanwhile, the liquidation heatmap shows a dense cluster of short liquidations above this area; if the price cannot break through with volume, it is very likely to trigger profit-taking.
3. $83,400 to $85,000 (pattern breakout target): If Bitcoin can effectively hold above $81,500, the daily-level "descending wedge" breakout pattern will be confirmed, with a technical target pointing to $83,450, and then challenging the $85,000 mark.The global payment system is undergoing a subtle but significant transformation. Yesterday, 21 heavyweight banks across five continents jointly finalized a plan to launch a US dollar stablecoin in the first half of 2027, with the operating company already registered. Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citibank, Fidelity, Deutsche Bank, UBS, and Mitsubishi UFJ are all involved, covering almost all major global US dollar clearing channels. This is not a marketing gimmick but a genuine settlement layer alliance. 🌍 The timing is intriguing. In October last year, only 10 banks participated in testing; in less than a year, the number has doubled. This is driven by the policy push following the January 2025 Trump executive order blocking CBDCs and instead supporting private US dollar stablecoins. The banks' collective entry seems more like a proactive move to align with regulatory trends and compete for future payment licenses. Naturally, the target is USDC and USDT. The current total stablecoin market cap is about $309.6 billion, with USDT alone accounting for $183.4 billion, but the bank-backed stablecoins are aimed at institutional settlement and corporate treasury, not a direct confrontation. The real pressure might be on Circle, which has already been suppressed by the Open USD project jointly launched by Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe, causing its stock price to suffer. Now, with 21 banks encircling again, the competitive landscape is becoming more complex. $USDC However, the company name, underlying blockchain, and custodian have not been finalized, and JPMorgan Chase is not participating. The actual launch is expected in 2027. The next 18 months will be a slow-moving variable, so short-term signals should not be overinterpreted. ComplianceBTC quickly surged from 63,000 to 82,000, and traditional finance professionals have started paying attention to the crypto space again.
Over the past week, I have been invited to calls by more than 20 leading brokerages and traditional buy-side institutions, all asking how to view this wave of Bitcoin—is the bear market really over or is it just a short squeeze?
Here are a few personal judgments, not investment advice:
1️⃣ Bitcoin has always been known for its large volatility and ability to surge dramatically; it just lost the spotlight to AI over the past year. As the AI narrative hype reaches a turning point, Bitcoin is simply returning to its former self.
2️⃣ Bitcoin is a stubborn asset; in every cycle, some people short it out of disbelief, only to end up fueling the rally.
3️⃣ The low point of 57,800 this round was most likely caused by market panic triggered by the strategy board's approval of coin selling authorization on June 29. Although strategy sold coins multiple times afterward, it never broke the new low again, indicating the market has mentally prepared.
4️⃣ The peak of AI hardware stocks in May-June was entirely driven by sentiment pricing, just like every peak in BTC bull markets. Moreover, this sector remains extremely crowded, with capital continuing to flow out, so only lower highs are expected in the next 12 months.
5️⃣ The macro environment is indeed under pressure, but that pressure is on the long end. Crypto assets still have room to run at this level. Plus, some people are more anxious than our industry; our scale is nothing, so everything remains uncertain.
6️⃣ Conservatively, 70% of the crypto community has missed the boat, $ETH $SOL $BTC Non-farm payroll data will be released tomorrow night at 20:30, which is the last key reference before the FOMC meeting. The current market consensus is about 55,000, but I judge the actual figure may be weaker, around 35,000. The reason is that recent other economic indicators have generally been weak, lacking sufficient evidence to support strong employment.
If the data is below 40,000, it will constitute a significant shock, and the pace of rate hikes may be forced to delay until October, with a probability of about 40%. Looking back at July, the expectation was 80,000, but the actual figure was negative; market forecasts are often overly optimistic, and this deviation is worth noting.
If it falls between 40,000 and 80,000, it will be considered a smooth transition. Whether to raise rates will depend more on CPI and the Fed's statements, with a probability of about 35%. At that time, wage growth should be observed simultaneously, as Waller is particularly sensitive to inflation and price changes.
If it exceeds 80,000, rate hikes are almost certain, and $BTC may come under pressure to fall below $75,000, with a probability of about 25%.
From an operational perspective, the current price has partially priced in rate hike expectations, uncertainty remains high, and leveraged one-sided bets are not recommended. $OKB is a high beta quality asset and can be accumulated in batches during pullbacks. If the non-farm data surprises on the downside, altcoins will have the greatest rebound elasticity, with priority attention on DOGE, $ENA, and other varieties.
Risk warning: Market data may be subject to revisions. The above is only a scenario simulation and does not constitute any investment advice. Please control your position and manage risks properly. $ETH 📈 Tonight BTC and ETH suddenly surged, what exactly happened?
This rally is not simply a "Friday bullish news being realized early," but more like a resonance of multiple factors.
First, Federal Reserve official Waller released dovish signals, raising market expectations for a policy shift toward easing in September, boosting risk assets. At the same time, the decline in U.S. Treasury yields also provided a favorable environment for BTC and ETH to rise.
Second, after BTC broke through $80,000, a large number of shorts stopped losses and were liquidated, forming a clear "short squeeze". Shorts were forced to buy back positions, further pushing prices up, so part of tonight's gains may come from short covering rather than entirely new money entering the market.
As for Friday's non-farm payroll data, the market has already priced in some of the "bullish expectations" in advance. Therefore, even if Friday's data is positive, it does not necessarily mean BTC will continue to surge; instead, there might be a "bullish news realization": after the data release, bulls take profits and prices pull back in the short term.
The key is whether BTC can hold above $80,000 and overcome resistance in the $81,500 to $82,800 range. If it breaks through and holds, the market may open up further upside; if it rallies but then falls back below $80,000, caution is needed for a pullback.
So the biggest risk now is not being wrong about the direction, but FOMO chasing the rally. The more urgent the market, the more you need to control your position size and wait for confirmation.
#BTC #ETH #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Cryptocurrency Brothers, just looking at the news from tonight until Friday, I think the US stock market is more likely to experience high volatility, first watching the non-farm payrolls before choosing a direction, rather than simply judging rise or fall.
Currently, Waller leans toward keeping interest rates unchanged in September if inflation continues to cool down. The 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen from a high level, and the US stock market has already shown significant recovery; meanwhile, the AI sector still has support, and Nvidia's acquisition of Hugging Face continues to strengthen AI expectations.
On the other hand, oil prices remain near $90, the ISM Services Price Index rose to 72.6, and inflation pressure has not truly disappeared, so there is still interest rate pressure above the US stock market.
The real core on Friday is the non-farm payrolls. The current market expectation is about an increase of 53,000 to 65,000 people, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, while July was still -23,000.
My judgment: if the non-farm payrolls are below expectations, the US stock market, especially the Nasdaq, may continue to surge, and rate cut expectations will heat up; if it is significantly stronger than expected, the dollar and US Treasury yields will rebound, and the US stock market is likely to rise sharply and then fall back.
So Friday will most likely be cautious oscillation before the data, with volume picking a direction after the data. The same goes for $BTC and $ETH; don't ignore the main funding sentiment line of the US stock market and US Treasury bonds.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 Market movement analysis and liquidity status 🔴 Bitcoin (BTC) under pressure: The price is trading in a sharp struggle zone around the $80,000 levels amid a balance between buying and selling forces. Recovery attempts towards $81,500 lack sufficient momentum and quickly turn into sell-offs. 🟡 Ethereum (ETH) in a sideways range: The price moves within a narrow and dull range between $2,350 and $2,480, reflecting the absence of bullish catalysts at the moment. 🔵 Liquidity shortage and altcoin behavior: Bitcoin's stability does not reflect market health; the temporary upward movement in some altcoins (such as TRMPP, LAB, and ZORADP has already collapsed! Another poor nonfarm payroll, the 62% rate hike probability is just a joke.🧐
Brothers, tomorrow night at 8:30, August nonfarm payrolls. This is the last piece of the puzzle before the FOMC.
ADP has already collapsed as a warning: private sector employment in August increased by only 38,000, below the expected 48,000, marking the smallest increase since January this year. Manufacturing cut 17,000 jobs, professional and business services cut 16,000. Wage growth for low-paying jobs has completely stalled.
Meanwhile, CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September remains as high as 62.3%. Employment is collapsing, yet rate hike expectations remain feverishly high—how long can this contradiction last?
But on the other side, smart money is moving.
The world's largest gold ETF—SPDR Gold Trust—increased holdings by 9.984 tons in a single day, soaring to 1056.62 tons. Despite rate hike expectations weighing on gold, big money is buying against the trend.
My judgment:
If nonfarm payrolls fall short of expectations, the rate hike probability will quickly cool down, and gold and BTC may see a retaliatory rebound. The market expects an increase of 58,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.1%. If nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly strengthen, the 62% rate hike probability will surge past 70%, and BTC may test new lows again.
ADP has already shown a red light, don’t bet on the direction of nonfarm payrolls anymore. Wait for the data to land, follow whoever wins.
$BTC $ETH $XAU
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注
#OKX星球话题来啦 $BTC just broke above 82,000, and $ETH also returned near 2,510, pushed by news.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller gave a dovish speech—saying if inflation continues to cool, rates should remain unchanged—directly feeding the market a sweet treat. The September rate hike expectations fell from their peak, and risk appetite briefly warmed up. Short squeeze also helped push; just now nearly $86 million worth of shorts were liquidated, and short-term buying was pushed up accordingly #FOMC last set of data before Friday's nonfarm payrolls
But the biggest feature of this news-driven rally is that it comes fast and goes fast. The real test is Friday's nonfarm payrolls, with the market expecting an increase of 58,000 jobs. If the data beats expectations, rate hike expectations will heat up again; if the data weakens, the market may turn to recession trades. Neither side is easy to navigate, so the direction is uncertain before the data release. #EarningsObserver: Broadcom beats expectations, Snowflake raises guidance
Looking for short opportunities above:
$BTC: 82,000-82,500 is a key recent resistance zone. If stagnation signals appear around here, it could be a short entry point. Support is near 77,000; if the rebound lacks volume follow-through, shorts can be held for a while.
$ETH: 2,430-2,450 has obvious supply pressure—whales are transferring coins to exchanges, and short-term ETF inflows are insufficient to absorb this level of selling. ETH is likely to face resistance in this range.
Treat this wave as a rebound, not a reversal. Wait for exhaustion signals before acting, and avoid heavy positions before the nonfarm payrolls.👊Weak data (new additions <40,000, probability 40%): Reinforces "cooling employment," the probability of a rate hike in September drops below 30%, the 10-year US Treasury yield falls, and the dollar weakens, benefiting risk assets. Combined with the current bullish pattern (breaking through 80,000, short liquidation), it may drive BTC to challenge $83,000, and net inflows into spot ETFs may amplify the rally Golden cross, institutional entry, liquidity expectations heating up, the next round of $BTC market may be brewing.
The 50-day moving average of $BTC is approaching the 200-day moving average; once the golden cross forms, the technical side will further release bullish signals. Meanwhile, the USDT market share weakening also means some funds are flowing back from stablecoins to risk assets.
But what really deserves attention is the macro environment.
Arthur Hayes recently mentioned that if Japan's GPIF further adjusts its asset allocation, it could bring a new round of liquidity expansion. However, the so-called "money printing spree" is still just an expectation; what truly determines BTC's trend remains interest rates, the US dollar, and global funding costs.
Changes are also happening on the institutional side.
Traditional financial institutions are continuously lowering the participation threshold for crypto assets. Standard Chartered Bank expanding BTC and ETH spot trading services from the UK to the UAE is a clear signal. Institutional capital entering the crypto market is becoming increasingly normalized.
Willy Woo even believes that $BTC may gradually shift from the past 4-year cycle to a 6-8 year cycle in the future. The reason is simple: with ETFs and institutional funds joining, the market's capital structure is no longer the same as before, and the cycle may be extended.
So I remain optimistic about the upcoming market, but I won't directly conclude a bull market just because of a "golden cross."
The golden cross itself is a lagging indicator, and the decline in USDT market share may also be just a temporary rebound in risk appetite.
What really needs confirmation is whether spot and ETF funds can continue to flow in, and whether BTC can firmly stand above $80,000–$83,300 again.
If these two conditions appear simultaneously, the next upward trend is more worth looking forward to.
Right now, it feels more like waiting for the final confirmation.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 Let's continue to dig deeper into the impact of Waller's recent speech.
First, this was the last effective statement before the FOMC meeting's silence period, which pushed down the high probability of a rate hike previously brought by Wash's speech to a stance of no hike unless CPI is very hot. This means the risk market decline caused by the increased probability of a rate hike last week has been recovered.
What we cannot determine now is whether Waller's speech was his personal opinion or a deliberate signal from the committee.
Therefore, we cannot conclude if this was intentionally dovish to disrupt the market's consensus expectations on rate hikes for the sake of managing expectations, or if it was a temporary cooldown because the rate hike probability had risen too quickly before.
The upcoming major nonfarm payroll data to be released on Friday will further point the market out of the fog, but the main event remains the CPI on September 11.
If the major nonfarm data continues the previous trend of labor market cooling, it will provide a good excuse for no rate hike in September. However, if the data reveals a high hourly wage signal, it will give the Fed a reason to hike rates to suppress inflation.
Back to the current 50-50 CME rate hike probability, it's really hard to say whether it's Captain America taking over or Wang Dun's 50-50 talisman working (just kidding, strike that 🤣).
The market generally believes the Fed will act in line with market expectations when the probability of a rate hike or cut reaches 70-90%, but in fact, there have been many exceptions and extreme swings near decision windows in recent years.
For example, in December 2025, Powell said at the end of October that a December rate cut was "far from certain," combined with the government shutdown and lack of data at the time, and a series of regional Fed presidents turning hawkish, the December rate cut...Weak data (new additions <40,000, probability 40%): Reinforces "cooling employment," the probability of a rate hike in September drops below 30%, the 10-year US Treasury yield falls, and the dollar weakens, benefiting risk assets. Combined with the current bullish pattern (breaking through 80,000, short liquidation), it may drive BTC to challenge $83,000, and net inflows into spot ETFs may amplify the rally $BTC Bitcoin Real-Time Market Overview (9/4 Friday 05:41 UTC+8 · Anchor $81,800)
Current Price: $81,800 (Sina 81808.85 / Investing 81797 /
Intraday Range: $76,968–$82,300 (Sina; last night 76,938→82,300 short squeeze continuation, no break above 81,800 friction)
Market Cap: ~ $1.642 trillion (20.07M × 81,800), dominance ~58.5%
Volume: 24h spot amplified (Sina single source trades 18,430 BTC level), last night Waller dovish + initial claims weak short squeeze volume confirmed
Sentiment: Fear and greed back to 70+ greed (previous frame 65); daily RSI 72+ overbought (breakout state not retreated); 4H MACD golden cross red bar expansion, 1H 82,300 spike then fell back to 81,800 friction
Technical Structure (81.8K new stable state vs 82.3K night high)
Funds and Macro (updated 9/4 05:41)
ETF: 9/3 single day net inflow +$101 million (IBIT +$115 million), reversing 9/1–9/2 outflow; 9/4 initial value pending 21:30 US market release
Macro: CME September rate hike probability 50.4% (Wed 63.2%→Thu 50.4%); 10Y yield back to 4.76%; initial claims exceed expectations + Waller "no surprise on inflation, so hold steady" dual drivers; tonight 20:30 Nonfarm Payrolls is next breaking point (good → rate hike probability back to 60%+ pressuring 80K; bad → 50% hold 82K push 83K)
On-chain: 9/3 24h short liquidations account for 82%, leverage washed out; whales’ 75–76K sell orders filled and exited, new chip cost moved up to 80K+
Seasonality: Rektember but Nonfarm week + policy shift expectations overshadow seasonality
Today (Friday Asia-Europe session → 20:30 Nonfarm) scenarios
Baseline: 80,800–82,300 friction, hold 81,000 grind 81,800; test 82,320 fail then pull back to 81,000
Continuation: 1H close above 82,320 and daily close 82,320+ → target 83,000 (365DMA) → 85,000
Pullback: 4H close below 80,800 → target 80,000 (daily close break confirms false breakout) → 79,300; 80,000 is bull lifeline
Spot: 81,800 no chase, wait for 80,000–80,800 pullback stabilization to add ≤5% per trade; 74.8–75.6K old positions move stop profit up to 79,300
Futures: 82,000–82,300 stagnation light short (stop 82,450, target 80,800) ≤2x; 81,800 no long chase (RSI 72+ pre-Nonfarm)
Nonfarm Discipline: clear overnight naked positions 30 minutes before 20:30, wait for 1H candle after data to confirm direction then follow
Key Observations
Whether 82,300–82,320 daily close stands above (stand above = box breakout, fail = three failures then wash back 80K)
Whether 80,000 daily close holds (bull market pullback bottom, break means back to 78.5K)
20:30 Nonfarm and rate hike probability (whether 50.4% returns to 60%+)
Whether 10Y yield stabilizes below 4.76% (if back above 4.85%+ then 80K hard to hold)
Whether ETF inflow continues on 9/4 (institutional absorption confirmed)
ETH/BTC 0.0307 (2510 ÷ 81800), relative to BTC slightly rebounded but still weak before 0.0313
⚠️ Objective market overview, not investment advice. 81800 is the cross frame of Sina 81808.85 + Investing 81797, belongs to 9/3 night short squeeze then Asia session friction; daily RSI 72 overbought + pre-Nonfarm, no chase above 82,320 before three failures, 4H close below 80,800 confirms pullback start.
Single line summary: BTC 80.0/80.8/81.8/82.3 | $81,800 (Sina 81808 / Investing 81797 / your previous report 81900 same frame) | 9/3 night Waller dovish + initial claims weak → rate hike 63% → 50% → 76,938 → 82,300 short squeeze; 82.3K (5/8 months three failures upper edge) new referee, daily close looks at 83K; 80K new bottom; 78.5K resistance turned recovered; ETF 9/3 +$101 million inflow; Nonfarm 20:30 is next breaking point. $BTC Bitcoin Is Back Above $80K. But the ETF Data Tells a More Complicated Story
Bitcoin just pushed back above $80K, reaching roughly $81.4K intraday as falling bond yields and softer expectations around Fed policy improved risk appetite.
But I am less interested in the headline move than the liquidity behind it.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $101.15M in net inflows on September 2, reversing a $236.46M outflow the previous day. Meanwhile, Ethereum, Solana and XRP ETFs all recorded outflo A rebound is not a reversal; it's the market teaching us to relearn respect. Have you noticed that recently, every time good news comes out, the market only gives a needle's patience? I sat in front of the screen all night, and the biggest feeling I got was this: good news can't support the price, bad news directly breaks through sentiment. Just before the non-farm data, there was a bit of expectation divergence, then the rate hike expectations heated up again, and energy inflation in the Hormuz area is still adding drama. The news is like scattered sand, but the price is telling us in the most honest way—it doesn't want to rise. At this stage, I hold BTC, ETH, and OKB, and my thinking is surprisingly consistent: don't chase the highs, just wait for the rebound. What is the rebound for? It's for adjusting positions, not for calling the bull market back. Many people think that after a big drop, it should rise, but the real bottom is never "felt". The bottom is tested with real money, naturally emerging after leverage is cleaned out. The question now is, has the leverage been cleaned? Is sentiment stable? Has incremental capital entered? If the answer is no to all, then every rebound is just giving existing capital a decent chance to exit. What do I understand a bull market to look like? Good news can be continuously realized, there are buyers during pullbacks, and capital is continuously flowing in, not like now—good news can't move the market, bad news directly breaks support. So I'm not in a hurry to call a bull market. I will wait for the market to fully digest the sentiment, wait for risk appetite to shift from contraction back to expansion, wait for capital to move from observation to action. When that time comes, I will be the first to say: it's time. At thatThe Ethereum Foundation is actively "slimming down," which is exactly how Ethereum should be.
Recently, the foundation cut about 20% of its staff and slashed its budget target by 40%, with many protocol contributors gradually leaving. Vitalik's attitude is very straightforward: the foundation should only be "one of many nodes," not the brain of Ethereum. He did the math and found that the foundation's holdings account for only about 0.16% of the total $ETH supply. With limited treasury funds, it should focus on just one thing—investing in decentralization, privacy, security, and censorship resistance, leaving the rest to external teams that can sustain themselves. He is also clear about the competitive strategy: not to compete with others on millions of TPS in virtual numbers, but to excel in overlooked areas, such as using AI-assisted formal verification to build a chain that can prove it has no vulnerabilities.
Looking at the weekly chart, ETH is now hovering around 2,400. After falling from last year's high, it has been oscillating in a low range. In recent weeks, it just climbed back from below 1,800 to around 2,400, with 2,600 being a clear resistance level. Honestly, this kind of low-volume sideways phase is actually suitable for focusing on work. The foundation has less money, but its direction is more focused, and the ecosystem is forced to learn to walk on its own. Price bottoming and governance decentralization are two parts of the same rhythm. When the day comes that Ethereum truly no longer needs a "headquarters," the story on this weekly chart will have truly begun a new chapter.Ethereum's 24-hour increase is 5.21%, currently priced at 2489.
Just got pulled into a bungee jump by Bitcoin, and in the blink of an eye, it stood firm at 4100. Don't be fooled by how it usually follows Bitcoin silently; when it comes to critical moments, its elasticity is no less than the big brother's.
This round of rebound is very solid. Bitcoin leads the way, $ETH follows, the second in command always plays this role—Bitcoin sets the stage, ETH performs, as long as the stage doesn't collapse, it will put on a show for you.
The market signals are getting clearer:
First, the exchange rate inflection point is emerging. The ETH/$BTC exchange rate has been flat at the bottom for almost two months, but these days it’s clearly rising, indicating funds are starting to overflow from Bitcoin into ETH. Every time the market enters the second phase, this is the script.
Second, on-chain data is cooperating. The median Gas price has risen from single digits to above 20, Layer 2 active addresses have hit new highs, and staking volume remains steady at 34 million tokens. The fundamentals aren’t just stories; there really is capital piling in.
Third, the technical side is solid. The previous resistance at 4050 has been repeatedly tested and finally held, and there’s little resistance in the vacuum zone up to 4400. As long as Bitcoin doesn’t suddenly crash, ETH’s catch-up potential is even greater than Bitcoin’s.
But I have to pour cold water—ETH’s volatility is never mild; it surges fiercely and drops even harder. I’m optimistic about it but won’t chase leverage at this position. Hold the spot, add more on the pullback.
Ethereum hasn’t yet reached the real power phase in this cycle. Wait for it, the best is yet to come. There’s an old pattern that keeps proving itself: whenever Bitcoin approaches a big, round psychological number 60k, 70k, 80k, whatever the next one turns out to be — it becomes a kind of pain gauntlet for anyone positioned against the trend. Round numbers pull in retail attention, trigger stop cascades, and give bulls a rallying point to defend.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #EDGE约65% of the supply is locked, with tokens concentrated among a few addresses or related parties. Low circulation means that a small amount of capital can have a huge price impact, increasing the possibility of market manipulation.
The edgeX team identity has not yet been publicly disclosed. Previous airdrop allocation disputes (25% of the promised community but actually only about 4%) and the investigation progress of the flash crash have raised concerns about transparency.
The maximum leverage offered by OKX in EDGE's highly volatile environment can lead to extremely rapid position liquidation.
Obvious bull trader trades, short selling, then long.TOKEN UNLOCKS ARE OFTEN IGNORED UNTIL THEY MATTER.
Look at $HYPE, $SOL and $ARB from a tokenomics perspective.
The important question is not simply how many tokens exist.
It is how supply enters the market and whether real demand can absorb it.
A strong project with poor supply dynamics can still create difficult price action.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC SNDK Under the Cloud of Interest Rate Hikes: Valuation Under Pressure, but AI Demand is the "Ballast"
The probability of an interest rate hike in September has risen to 62.3%, which is undoubtedly a "tightening spell" for SNDK, which has seen a remarkable increase this year.
In the short term, the impact of sentiment and capital flow is inevitable. Interest rate hikes push up risk-free rates, directly suppressing high-valuation tech stocks. SNDK's gains this year have fully priced in the long-term potential of AI storage. Once market risk appetite tightens, profit-taking will amplify volatility. If the September rate hike occurs as expected and U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, a stock price pullback to $1500 or even lower is not an alarmist scenario.
However, the medium-term fundamental logic remains intact. SanDisk's latest quarterly report is explosive: revenue of $8.97 billion, a year-on-year increase of 372%, with data center business surging 437%. The AI computing arms race is translating into tangible storage demand, with enterprise SSDs, HBM, and other high-value-added products in short supply. This is the strongest "floor" for the stock price.
The key variable lies in the "expectation gap." If a 25 basis point rate hike has been fully priced in, after the negative news settles, market focus will return to earnings resilience, making any pullback a medium-term buying opportunity. Conversely, if the rate hike combined with tightening signals exceeds expectations, the time needed for valuation digestion will lengthen in the short term.
Strategically, avoid chasing highs in the short term and defend until the storm passes; in the medium to long term, the industrial trend of AI storage remains unchanged, and SNDK remains a core beneficiary. Volatility is a catalyst for opportunity, but patience is needed to wait for a favorable risk-reward hitting zone.
#闪迪MSCI调仓生效，NAND估值受关注 Capital Rotation—BTC Takes a Breather, Leaders Take Over
BTC ETF ends two days of outflows, with a net inflow of 101 million on September 2; IBIT contributed 115 million. ETH ETF sees its first outflow of 48.08 million after 12 consecutive days of inflows, ending BlackRock's buying streak. SOL simultaneously outflows 6.13 million. ZEC debuts on the NYSE, and HYPE is included in the Hashdex Index ETF with a 3.4% weight.
Brief Analysis:
① BTC: Net inflows return; Standard Chartered and Hargreaves Lansdown expand institutional access, but supply pressure remains between 83K–86K
② ETH: Short-term capital retreat; Remixpoint liquidates to switch to BTC; exchange rate weakens
③ SOL: Slight ETF outflow, but network revenue in August reached 143 million, accounting for 38% of total cross-chain revenue; fundamentals remain solid
④ ZEC: Listed on NYSE; privacy sector gains attention, with this leader leading the rally
⑤ HYPE: Included in index ETF, institutional allocation expands, but watch for the $1.2 billion unlock on September 29
Conclusion: BTC takes a breather, leaders take over; the wind hasn't stopped, it just changed direction.
$BTC $ETH Afternoon tea time, let's have some gossip 👀👀
Every wave sacrifices a giant in the industry before the crypto sector truly bottoms out. This time, could it be Sun Ge?
1. In February 2014, one of the largest Bitcoin exchanges, Mt. Gox, went bankrupt. A year later, Bitcoin dropped about 85%.
2. In January 2018, after one of the biggest high-yield Ponzi schemes, BitConnect, shut down, Bitcoin fell about 84% from its peak.
3. In May 2022, the top stablecoin project Luna depegged and went to zero; in November, FTX, one of the top three global exchanges at the time, went bankrupt. Bitcoin dropped 77%.
The pattern is brutal: when a giant falls, liquidity dries up, and the market finally finds a bottom.
So far in this wave, no crypto giant of equivalent scale has collapsed or gone bankrupt. I think Sun Ge fits this role well.
➡️ The reasons are simple:
1. TRX's market cap has consistently ranked in the top ten cryptocurrencies, currently around eighth.
2. The stablecoin circulation on the Tron network ranks first among public chains, with the settlement layer tied to a large amount of inflows and outflows.
3. Nearby, there are two exchanges, HTX and Poloniex. One person is linked to a public chain, a stablecoin pipeline, and two trading entrances.
This is not just about the rise and fall of a single token, but the chain, stablecoin, and exchanges stacked together.
If something really happens, the transmission impact will be much greater than ordinary altcoin projects 🐶
#SunGeBTC and ETH both retreated simultaneously, with 6 out of 10 samples closing higher but volume shrinking by 52.7%
From 04:00 to 05:00, the 1H candle has closed. Among 10 fixed high-liquidity samples, 6 rose and 4 fell, with a total turnover of 35.15 million USDT, only 47.3% of the previous hour. The number of rising assets still dominates, but participation funds have clearly cooled down.
BTC and ETH fell by 0.36% and 0.52% respectively, with turnover shrinking to 43.6% and 34.3% of the previous hour; the gains were carried by XRP, ADA, SUI, LINK, TRX, and OKB. Breadth remains, but volume has not been confirmed.
If at least 7 samples close higher in the next hour and total turnover returns above 74.26 million USDT, the recovery will be confirmed; if at least 7 turn lower, the rotation fails.
I will first watch whether the turnover can keep up. What other data will you verify?
Data: OKX official spot 1H K-line (confirm=1), as of 05:00 on September 4, 2026 (UTC+8). Fixed samples do not represent the entire market. This article does not constitute investment advice.
#BTC #ETH #XRP #MarketWatchEvening Important News Summary: Macro Speeches + US Stock Close + Geopolitical Situation, Understanding the Logic of Gold, Oil, and Crypto Markets
The Fed speeches, US stock close, and external geopolitical events all collided, disrupting gold, oil, and crypto markets. The forces of bulls and bears tug back and forth with no one-sided trend. Let me clarify the key points for everyone.
First, the most critical Fed officials' speeches tonight are the core that affects the whole picture.
The tone was not soft, but they didn’t make definitive statements. They won’t directly decide the next steps, instead, everything hinges on the inflation data coming next week.
Simply put: if inflation data rises again, tightening is more likely; if inflation continues to fall, the status quo will be maintained. They also mentioned that after revising old data, inflation figures might be adjusted downward.
The market has understood this and is lowering expectations for tightening. So now the whole market is in a wait-and-see mode; big funds are cautious and won’t make big one-sided moves. All decisions await the inflation data release.
👉 Crypto: With weakening tightening expectations, sentiment gets some support. But before the data comes out, funds won’t rush forward boldly. The market will oscillate back and forth, with frequent rallies and pullbacks. If inflation data rebounds next week, the market will face considerable pressure.
👉 Gold: Weaker tightening expectations are bullish for gold, but external geopolitical interference offsets this. The two forces cancel each other out, making it hard for gold to sustain a one-sided trend.
👉 Oil: Policies indirectly affect global demand, maintaining a tight supply state, which suppresses oil prices.
Second, the US stock close situation.
US stocks rose steadily in the evening, with the three major indices closing up over 1%, and overall market risk appetite warming. Tech stocks like Tesla and Nvidia performed well. However, internal divergence is obvious; Chinese concept stocks weakened, showing a big gap between sectors.
Strong tech stocks in the US will boost crypto market sentiment, temporarily raising bullish atmosphere. But this is only sentiment support and does not change the market’s fundamental structure. External excitement does not guarantee a confirmed mid-to-long-term direction.
Gold is a safe-haven asset; when the market is willing to take risks, gold buying weakens. Oil is less correlated with US stocks and depends more on supply and geopolitical changes.
Third, the external geopolitical variable cannot be ignored.
The conflict risk has not been fully resolved. At the key shipping straits, related plans have collapsed; previous online rumors of agreements are false. As a global oil transport channel, uncertainty over the straits remains and has not eased.
👉 Oil: If shipping risks at the straits increase, concerns over supply disruptions will push oil prices up. But it’s not at the stage of actual blockade yet; the market is experiencing volatility caused by risk, with prices fluctuating back and forth.
👉 Gold: During tense situations, safe-haven buying supports gold prices. Now it’s contradictory: policy expectations are bullish, US stocks rising are bearish, and geopolitical tensions provide a floor. These logics clash, so gold will likely continue to oscillate within a range until a new event breaks the balance.
👉 Crypto: When geopolitical tensions escalate, funds prefer gold for safety, causing crypto to bear pressure as a risk asset; if conflicts don’t escalate, there won’t be significant impact.
✅ Final Overall Summary
Various market news are conflicting: Fed policy is undecided, geopolitical situations may flare up anytime, and US stocks bring emotional disturbances all intertwined.
• Crypto: Short-term supported by US stock sentiment, but the inflation bomb next week looms overhead. Avoid blind chasing; expect high-level oscillation;
• Gold: Bullish and bearish factors offset each other, range-bound trading, with geopolitical events as potential triggers;
• Oil: Focused on strait developments; without actual shipping disruptions, it’s hard to see a big one-sided move. News-driven dynamics are strong.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 At 2 a.m. on the trading interface, I was staring at that coin I hadn’t gotten into, which had just surged another ten-plus points, yet I felt surprisingly calm inside. Have you ever had a moment when you clearly missed the market move but instead felt relieved? Recently, the market seems to have hit the accelerator, with new faces rushing to the top of the gainers list every day. But I find myself less and less eager to chase. It’s not that I’ve gotten timid, but after watching so much, I’ve come to understand one truth: the market’s door is always open, but your bullets are limited. My current framework is actually quite simple, like building blocks divided into three layers: - The base layer is always BTC and ETH, the load-bearing walls of the entire crypto world; as long as they stand, the narrative continues. - The middle layer holds assets like SOL and XRP that have clear ecosystems or use cases; they are responsible for generating excess returns in a bull market but won’t keep you up at night like meme coins. - The outermost layer consists of some highly volatile new faces, but I set strict proportional limits for this layer; profits are a bonus, losses won’t break the bank. I increasingly feel that missing a rally isn’t painful; what’s painful is disrupting your own rhythm to chase a rally. Many people lose big money not because they picked the wrong coin, but because they picked the wrong timing—using up all their bullets at the market’s most frenzied moments, only to watch helplessly when the real big opportunity arrives. Looking across markets over time reveals a pattern: when the U.S. tech sector adjusts, risk appetite in crypto contracts first, and funds instinctively seek refuge in large-cap assets like BTC and ETH. At such times, altcoin rallies often lackTo be honest, many people’s understanding of the Solana Foundation still stops at the level of "organizing events and distributing subsidies," which actually underestimates its value. What it is truly doing is operating the entire ecosystem as a system: Breakpoint is the annual conference, Crossroads manages community engagement, Superteam has taken root in more than a dozen countries, and the Colosseum accelerator still holds a $250,000 grant program waiting for entrepreneurs. Simply put, from "beginner entry" to "independent entrepreneurship," the foundation helps pave every step of the way. The Renaissance hackathon received over a thousand projects in one go, covering infrastructure, gaming, DePIN, and various tracks—this is proof that the pipeline is fully operational.
What’s even more commendable is its sense of balance: providing funding without becoming shareholders, guiding without interfering in operations. Leading projects like Jupiter, Jito, and Pyth have all grown naturally through competition. The gardener only waters and fertilizes; how the tree grows is the tree’s own business.
Looking at the daily chart, SOL has risen steadily from around $70 to above $112, recently pulling back to the $100 level to consolidate. The rise is not reckless, and the pullbacks are supported. An ecosystem that can retain developers even during downturns will naturally show solid price performance. For the long term, the foundation’s operational strength may well be the strongest backing for $SOL.Yesterday, the crypto market suddenly came back to life again and again.
On the contrary, I feel like there's something about SOL that might have been overlooked!
When BTC climbed back to around $81,000 from a low, ETH also returned to $2,500, and SOL even rose about 4% in a single day. (Key point)
On the surface, it looks like Trump's speech, the easing expectations of interest rates, and the weakening dollar reignited the sentiment for risk assets.
But what I also see is
In August,
Solana's application revenue reached $143 million, accounting for 38% of the entire on-chain application revenue, taking first place.
And in July, it was $82.9 million, nearly a 73% increase in just one month.
Because prices can rise on sentiment, and hotspots can be driven by capital speculation, but application revenue at least shows that people on the chain are genuinely using it, trading, and willing to pay.
So this time, with SOL rebounding along with the market, I don't just want to interpret it as "BTC went up, so SOL followed."
If Solana's application revenue can continue to maintain this pace, then when capital re-evaluates SOL, it might not just be about the narrative, but whether this chain can sustainably generate revenue.
That's also why I think this set of data is somewhat underestimated.
The market is responsible for igniting sentiment, but Solana itself has to prove why it deserves this money.
So for this wave of SOL, I will be especially looking forward to it.
$SOL $ETH #波动雷达：币种异动观察 $BTC Today Bitcoin temporarily broke through $81,000, seemingly breaking the curse of falling every time there is a meeting once again. Honestly, my $BTC dual currency expiring today still chose a 5% drop, set at $73,800, mainly due to concerns about escalating war conflicts between the US and Iran and the risk market pullback caused by rising oil prices.
But I really have to thank Waller; if it weren't for his remarks, it would have been difficult for the US stock market and Bitcoin to withstand the pressure from oil prices and US bonds today.
Many friends only focus on the latter half of Waller's speech, which is that if inflation continues to rise in August, he will support a rate hike in September. But he also stated that as long as inflation continues to fall back toward 2%, he is willing to support keeping rates unchanged in September.
The market had originally pushed the probability of a September rate hike close to 60%, but after Waller's speech, it dropped to around 50%. The yields on two-year and ten-year US bonds both fell, and the US dollar index weakened accordingly, so the US stock market and Bitcoin immediately started to rise. Unfortunately, I had already made the dual currency trade before Waller spoke.
However, for the risk market, the rise in oil prices is a risk transmitted later through inflation, while the decline in US bond yields and the dollar is a direct positive factor that can be traded today, so the market temporarily chose the latter.
Additionally, Trump stated that the new round of military action against Iran will not last long, so the market did not price in a full-scale war escalation.
But if the war cannot end in the short term and oil prices cannot quickly recover, causing inflation to possibly continue rising, it will still not be good news for the market.Multiple signals lean bearish, the market key depends on subsequent data verification
From a macro perspective, the overall environment is currently bearish. The probability of a rate hike in September has reached 68%, US Treasury yields are approaching 4.8%, Japanese government bond yields have also broken through 3%, and global liquidity is in a tightening cycle. After Wash's hawkish remarks, market pricing has shifted toward tighter and longer-lasting policies, not immediate easing after rate hikes end.
On-chain chip layers also show signs of loosening, with whales continuously transferring BTC and ETH to exchanges. The market has been consolidating for a long time, leaning more toward a sell-off signal rather than accumulation or buildup. ETH is underperforming BTC, and whale transfer sell-offs have never stopped.
The news side is also worth caution; various positive stimuli have gradually lost effectiveness. Broadcom's earnings far exceeded expectations, Snowflake surged 24%, multiple banks are advancing stablecoin-related businesses, yet BTC and ETH gains remain very limited despite multiple positives. Positive news struggles to drive prices up, and once negative news hits, a stampede is likely, indicating the market's internal structure has weakened.
The key to the next market move depends on economic data. If nonfarm payroll data beats expectations, BTC could directly break below 76000. Even if nonfarm data weakens, CPI inflation data is the final verdict. According to Wash's policy logic, inflation is the core indicator; cooling employment does not mean rate hikes will be abandoned. Friday's nonfarm data will be a very critical observation window before the FOMC meeting.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 A reminder: don't get carried away by this short squeeze surge. Friday is the August non-farm payrolls release, the pivotal data that will decide whether the Fed hikes rates in September. The ADP report already weakened, and the probability of a rate hike dropped overnight from 70% to 50%, but then Waller said if inflation continues to improve, he supports a hike — the entire bull-bear narrative hinges on this one number. Going all-in without stop-loss on the eve of such an event isn't confidence; it's gambling your account on a coin toss. The standard move for pros before major catalysts is to reduce exposure, keep ammo, and wait for the cards to be revealed before playing. I'm currently out of the market watching the show—not because I have no view, but because I don't want to push all my chips before the dealer reveals the cards. $BTC, would you choose to be heavily invested before Friday or stay out and wait for the data? Brothers, on this "Black Friday" today, I actually think we need to guard against a spike first, then choose a direction.
Tonight, US stocks are strengthening. After Waller's speech, the expectation for a September rate hike has cooled down, and risk asset sentiment has clearly recovered; but oil prices are rising and inflation pressure still exists, so the market hasn't truly eliminated hawkish risks.
Looking at the non-farm payrolls, the market currently expects about 56,000 new jobs in August, while July still saw a decrease of 23,000, and ADP only 38,000, indicating employment is indeed cooling.
Based on past non-farm payroll Fridays, the market tends to trade sideways with low volume before the data, then after the release, it sweeps up and down once before choosing a direction. So tomorrow I am more wary of this kind of violent fluctuation rather than a direct one-sided move.
If the non-farm payrolls are significantly below expectations, the expectation for rate cuts/no hikes will rise, giving $BTC and $ETH a chance to continue surging; if the data is significantly stronger than expected, watch out for a rebound in the dollar and US Treasury yields, which will suppress crypto.
So tonight, the most important thing is not to guess the data, but to wait for market confirmation. On Black Friday, the easiest way to lose is to go all-in on a direction too early.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 Today, the crypto market was once again dominated by macro sentiment. SOL fell about 3% along with the broader market to around $99, while BTC dropped below $76,500, and ETH and XRP also led the decline among the top ten coins. The direct trigger was the US military striking Iranian targets again, combined with oil prices breaking above $93, fueling a broad rise in risk aversion. As a high Beta asset, SOL’s larger drop compared to BTC is a normal elastic response.
However, from a longer-term perspective, SOL was still at $63 a month ago, with a monthly gain of over 35%. Today’s 3% pullback looks more like a breather in an upward trend rather than a reversal. 🌿 Technically, the $100 round number is the key breakthrough point; whether it can close and hold above this level will determine the strength of the structure. The first support lies between $95 and $96, and if broken, attention should be paid to the dense trading zone between $89 and $90.
Notably, in the first five days of this week, SOL spot ETFs have continuously recorded net inflows, showing a divergence between institutional sentiment and retail risk aversion. This could be an important observation point for assessing rebound momentum. With a current 65% to 68% probability of interest rate hikes, Middle East geopolitical risks, and the battle for the $100 level, these three pressures intertwine, making short-term volatility inevitable. $SOL’s positioning should focus more on its own structure rather than external noise.
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile. The above is only an objective summary of facts and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make decisions cautiously.【Nonfarm Payrolls Tonight's Decisive Battle】BTC has reached a crossroads! 81,770 is just the appetizer; the real determinant of the next market move is this set of data
Tonight at 20:30, don't blink.
BTC is now repeatedly contesting around 81,500, but what the market is truly waiting for is no longer a single 5-minute candlestick.
It is:
US August Nonfarm Payrolls.
This time, I believe it cannot be simply understood as:
Good Nonfarm → BTC falls
Poor Nonfarm → BTC rises
If you still think this way, you might easily get cut by the first candlestick tonight.
What really needs to be watched is:
Nonfarm + Unemployment Rate + Wages + Previous Value Revisions
These four combined are the real "bomb" tonight.
⸻
🔥 Why is this Nonfarm especially important?
Let's look at the background.
The US job market has clearly cooled down recently.
July Nonfarm Payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and the employment data for May and June were significantly revised downward; meanwhile, August ADP private employment only increased by about 38,000, below market expectations.
In other words:
The market is no longer waiting to see "whether US employment is cooling down."
But rather waiting to see:
To what extent has it cooled down?
This is the most exciting part tonight. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 Freddie Mac news: The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the U.S. surged to 6.71% in the third week of September, entering the high-pressure range of 6.7-7%. Some lending institutions in certain regions have already raised loan rates to 6.9%-7%.
The average price of diesel in the U.S. has risen to its highest level since 2022, reaching $5.78 per gallon, close to the 2022 historical peak of $5.8.
These two data points indicate that the U.S. is in a high interest rate environment and also facing expectations of high oil prices and high inflation.
Following Japan, the U.S. is also caught in a policy dilemma: growth demands rate cuts, while inflation requires maintaining high rates. Is this a redemption for the Trump administration?
The real estate sector is being completely sacrificed, entering a typical K-shaped economic divergence and expansion phase, but stagflation seems to not allow this! Because the lower half of the K-shaped economy ultimately needs rescue, yet high oil prices and high inflation leave the Federal Reserve with very limited policy space.
Next, it will be crucial to see if U.S. employment enters a risk of sharp slowdown. Once employment also shows risk, if significant layoffs occur, the market will likely move directly to price in a recession! #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $BTC Morning strategy: mainly short on rebounds, do not chase longs unless volume recovers above 80,000.
Currently consolidating around 77,100, after yesterday's surge to 78,000 was rejected, with a low wick at 76,200. The issue is not the candlestick pattern, but the selling pressure above 80,000 has not been fully absorbed. ADP increased by only 38,000, weaker than expected, but oil prices remain high and the probability of a September rate hike is still above 60%. Soft employment data hasn't reversed the hawkish pricing, so the price can't rise. If service sector data comes in hot, the market could be smashed again at any time.
$ETH current price is 2,385, stuck below 2,400, following the rhythm of BTC.
Key variables tonight are ISM services and initial jobless claims, with non-farm payrolls on Friday. If service sector data confirms inflation stickiness, BTC may retest 76,200 or even 75,000.
Trading plan:
BTC: try short in the 77,600-78,600 range, target 75,000-76,200;
ETH: try short in the 2,420-2,480 range, target 2,280-2,350.
If BTC breaks above 81,300 with volume, short positions are invalidated, do not hold hard.
Before non-farm payrolls, do you think it will first test 75,000 or directly rebound to 80,000? $$BTC policy tailwinds are frequently blowing, yet the market remains dull and unresponsive.
SEC Chair Atkins expects the CLARITY Act to pass this month, which could clarify the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, making the long-term compliance path clearer, but the market has not reacted with excitement.
Despite the positive news, capital is not buying in. Garrett Jin closed out 276 BTC long positions, pocketing $210,000, though he still holds a major stake worth $123 million. The pattern of gradually exiting reveals short-term caution.
ETH is under more direct pressure. One institution transferred 39,500 ETH (about $95 million) to exchanges in a single day, signaling clear selling intent; ShapeShift’s whale moved 2,759 ETH to a new address, not directly entering the market but showing frequent activity.
The contradiction is clear: policy addresses the long-term framework, while capital focuses on immediate liquidity. The bill’s passage is a slow variable; whether the 80,000 level can be broken depends on ETF net flows, macro conditions, and genuine spot buying.
CLARITY can clear institutional entry barriers, but whether it can push prices depends on whether money is truly flowing in. Policy paves the way, capital ignites the fire—both are indispensable. $BTC $ETH Clarity bill 2026 legislative probability 15% Death or life decided on September 15! SEC Chair speaks out: Will the CLARITY bill pass this time?
Brothers, SEC Chair Atkins has come out again to hype, saying the Senate will hold a procedural vote on September 15, hoping to get the CLARITY bill to Trump's desk for signing by the end of the month.
Honestly, the industry's expectations are very low right now; Polymarket shows only about a 15% chance. The resistance isn't from the industry itself but purely political games—the Democrats want to use this to block Trump, since his family is deeply involved with crypto assets, and the conflict of interest clauses are unresolved.
Atkins insists it can pass mainly because the Republicans are unanimously supportive, and they only need to pull 4 Democrats to reach the 60-vote threshold. Institutions like Coinbase have been lobbying hard in DC recently, but time is tight, and September has a lot of messy issues queued for votes.
Regarding price impact, if the bill passes, it's a long-term positive; BTC, ETH, and SOL's commodity status will be directly written into law, and ETF funds will continue to flow in. But if it fails on September 15, expect a short-term dump, especially for altcoins like SOL that are relying on ETF lifelines. Before the news lands, the market will likely price in pessimism early $SOL $ETH $BTC #30年期美债收益率连续41天站上5%
This matter is more worth watching than the non-farm payrolls.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has stayed above 5% for 41 consecutive days. It has been above 5% for 56 trading days this year, reaching as high as 5.259% on September 2, the highest since 2007. This is not a short-term spike but a systemic repricing. Oil prices have returned to around $90, and inflation concerns are heating up again.
This round of long-term rate increases is not driven by a single factor but pushed by three forces simultaneously.
Market expectations for a rate hike in September have risen above 62%. Fed officials hawkishly spoke at Jackson Hole, and rate expectations are on an upward trajectory. U.S. debt has surpassed $40 trillion, long-term bond supply continues to expand, the bond market is oversupplied, prices are pressured down, and yields are pushed up. Oil prices have risen above $90, and inflation expectations are rising again.
For the crypto space, this impact is more lasting than oil prices.
Rising oil prices are a short-term shock, but high U.S. Treasury yields are a long-term constraint. A 30-year yield above 5% means the risk-free rate is already high enough, which will continuously suppress institutional appetite for risk assets. For Bitcoin to move up from 78,000, liquidity expectations need to improve, meaning more money, not more expensive money. Without easing in the high interest rate environment, Bitcoin’s valuation ceiling is capped there.
High interest rates suppress valuation, not narrative. If the CLARITY Act passes on September 15, the regulatory framework benefits will offset some of the macro headwinds. At this point, short-term pressure is a fact, but the overall direction remains unchanged.
Just wait and see.In current events, $LIT has recently been driven by Robinhood activities and trading volume revaluation: Lighter, as one of the backends for Robinhood Wallet/Chain perps, offers activity rewards of about 11 million LIT, with the protocol fee buyback mechanism providing a valuation anchor;
TVL/on-chain perp share is increasing, and technically, the ZK order book has low latency and verifiable matching, which differentiates it from Hyperliquid. On the downside: early airdrop dump memories, recent wash-volume suspicions, net outflow from exchanges is good but chips are concentrated, and at 50x leverage, a small spike leads to immediate pullback. $BTC $ETH #FOMC last set of data before Friday's nonfarm payrolls BTC surged to 80K, ETH's rally weakens—On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, bulls and bears are both betting
BTC strongly rebounded from a low of 76K to 80.8K, open interest rose to 2.4 billion, the long-short ratio fell from a high to a balanced range, funding rates near zero, with bullish sentiment moderate rather than frenzied. However, the KDJ J value has soared to 108.8, indicating severe overbought conditions and increased short-term risk of chasing highs.
ETH rebounded to 2,492, with strong resistance between 2,500–2,518 above. The ETH/BTC rate remains weak, with funds favoring BTC over ETH.
News and key variables:
① Waller's dovish stance + rising initial jobless claims, September rate hike probability drops to 54.6%, providing macro support for the rebound
② Tonight's non-farm payroll data is the real test—expectation +56K; weak data means continued rebound, strong data means a pullback to support
③ Standard Chartered launches BTC/ETH spot trading in the UAE, expanding compliant channels, a medium-term positive for institutional capital inflow
Trend scenarios:
① Non-farm below expectations: rate hike cools → BTC breaks 81,500, ETH catches up above 2,550
② Non-farm above expectations: rate hike expectations return → BTC pulls back to 80,000–78,500, ETH tests 2,450 support
③ Neutral data: high-level consolidation to digest overbought, waiting for the next catalyst
In short: Bulls have already rushed ahead before non-farm, chasing highs carries significant risk. Wait for the data to land and direction to emerge before acting.
$BTC $ETH The footage of the U.S. military escorting forty merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz is the most spectacular "rook" charge in the midgame of this chess match—but the killer move is not in the strait itself, but in the Saudi king codenamed $xSKHY, who has remained motionless in the opposite corner of the board with an unprecedented low export volume since the start of 2017.
Don’t rush to fixate on the clock reading of Brent’s six-week high. That’s not the center of the board, just the timer’s reading. The real center lies in the same square pointed to simultaneously by the Kpler and Vortexa engines: Saudi crude oil exports close to 3 million barrels per day. Two independent calculation logics give almost the same position, and for the player, this is no coincidence but a calculated variation from the opening—first suppress exports, then wait for the storm, holding idle capacity in hand, which is equivalent to holding a hidden piece that can play the "queen" at any time.
Hormuz is not the position of the veteran at all. The U.S. military escorting 40 merchant ships through the strait on September 1 looks like a double-rook crush, but the opponent is not contesting on this line. The Houthi attacks target the Red Sea, forcing Saudi Arabia to reroute and suffer continuous losses. In the midgame, the worst is to have the battle line fully extended: the strait can be passed, but freight costs are burning; the Red Sea can be bypassed, but insurance fees are screaming. The opponent does not trade pieces head-on but uses endless containment to make you pay a time cost with every step.
Basent ties living costs with Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy facilities in one sentence, and Moscow promptly extends the diesel export ban to the end of the month. This is a rare "stop the clock" request—the opponent uses rules to pause fast-forward in chaotic situations, forcing you to reassess the position. The diesel ban and crude export cuts are not on the same diagonal, but when the player presses pause before the opponent’s offensive, you should understand the midgame structure has quietly reorganized, and the gains from your previous attack will inevitably be discounted in the big game.
Now looking back at the $xSKHY king: low exports are like the king retreating from the center to the baseline—not cowardice, but guiding the entire game toward an endgame prepared in advance. Saudi Arabia has the cheapest crude production cost, equivalent to having the deepest endgame theory library on the board. On the surface, exports are reduced, but in fact, more king-side pawns are preserved; geopolitical conflicts create chaotic "midgame illusions," but true masters only look at the remaining moves after the score: whoever has more idle capacity has more options for diversion and promotion in the endgame.
How tight is the supply? Instead of counting the number of escort ships passing through Hormuz, measure the insurance curve of tankers rerouting through the Red Sea; instead of reading the diesel ban clauses word by word, watch those silent offshore floating storage inventories. Oil prices are just an intermediate move repeatedly calculated, and beyond that move lies a drastic reversal of the credit leverage on transport routes.
When a piece can only choose between Hormuz and the Red Sea, the real general has already fallen—it’s not a price point of oil, but the square on the Saudi crown marked $xSKHY. On the board, after this move, all engine evaluations suddenly go silent. #SaudiCrude9YearLow The ETF data over the past two days shows a divergence starting to appear between BTC and ETH.
BTC had a net inflow of 1,637 coins on Wednesday. Although this partially recovered the 3,153 coin outflow on Tuesday, the strength was clearly not very strong; the cumulative net inflow over the past 7 days is still 8,828 coins, so large funds have not completely withdrawn yet.
ETH looks noticeably worse. In the previous two days, nearly 60,000 coins were cumulatively bought, but on Wednesday alone, 35,800 coins were directly sold off, which wiped out more than half of the previous gains.
So in the current market, I tend to interpret this as high-level funds starting to pick selectively rather than blindly buying.
BTC still has big funds like BlackRock supporting it, while ETH’s continuous inflows are starting to loosen.
What’s most worrisome at this point is not a single day of outflow, but several consecutive days without inflows.
For the market to continue rising, relying on sentiment alone is not enough; ETFs need to bring in volume again.
$BTC $ETH BTC 跌到77700，机构在悄悄接货，散户在割肉离场——这个画面我们已经见过太多次了。 你有没有想过，为什么每次暴跌时链上数据总是"恰好"显示大钱在买入？ 上周加密基金净流入32亿美元，创下去年10月以来的最高纪录。BTC现货ETF单周吸金19亿，ETH现货ETF也进了6.97亿。BitMine继续加仓53501枚ETH，总持仓达到590万枚，占以太坊总供应量的4.9%。Strategy重新启动BTC买入，均价80318美元拿下4603枚。 价格在跌，钱在进。这就是典型的"事件重定价"——市场正在把非农数据和加息预期重新定价，而不是真正在恐慌抛售。 - 拆解一下这组数据的含义：机构不是在"抄底"，是在"接基本面" - 9月加息预期升温，传统资金反而加速流入加密资产，说明他们在对冲法币贬值风险 - 黄金和BTC的联动性正在被重新检验，这轮下跌更像是宏观情绪的传导，而非加密内部结构出问题 我观察到一个容易被忽略的细节：散户的恐慌和机构的从容形成了鲜明对比。链上数据不会说谎，大资金在当前位置的承接意愿非常明确。 偏多逻辑很清晰：机构持仓成本就在80000附近，他们不会让自己亏钱。ETF的持🔥 Brothers, the CLARITY Act is basically half dead.
The prediction market Polymarket shows that the probability of the act being signed into law within 2026 has dropped to 15%. It fell from 82% in February all the way down to now, from "a done deal" to "basically no chance."
On September 15, the Senate procedural vote requires 60 votes to advance. The Republicans hold 53 seats, so at least 7 Democrats need to support it. Those 7 votes are hard to get — the morality clause is a deadlock (Trump earned over 1.4 billion from crypto in 2025, Democrats want strict limits, Republicans propose a looser version), the stablecoin reward clause raises concerns about $1.3 trillion in deposit outflows, and the anti-money laundering clause is continuously controversial.
Even if it passes the hurdle on the 15th, there will still be full Senate debates, amendment battles, another 60-vote threshold, coordination with the House, and the President's signature. All these steps need to be completed within about 14 Senate working days. Galaxy Digital has already downgraded the probability of passage in 2026 from 50% to 10%.
A 15% chance reflects the triple strangulation of conflicts of interest, partisan struggles, and the election cycle. The "American era" of crypto regulation has been postponed again.👇
Let's discuss in the comments, do you think the CLARITY Act still has a chance? How to short sell for the first time