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Bitcoin Next Bull Market Price Projection (2026-2027 Cycle)
⚠️ The following is based on publicly available overseas institutional research reports and historical cycle reviews, and does not constitute any investment advice.
The fourth halving will be completed in April 2024. Historical pattern: 12-18 months after halving is the main upward window, meaning the second half of 2026 to 2027 is the peak period for this cycle.
However, with the current market institutionalization (spot ETFs, pensions, family offices), the overall bull market gains will be significantly reduced compared to the previous two cycles, making it difficult to replicate the early explosive multi-fold increases.
Three scenarios (top prices for this cycle):
① Pessimistic Scenario (30% probability, weak bull market)
Top: $100,000 - $130,000
Trigger conditions:
1. Repeated US inflation, very few Federal Reserve rate cuts, high interest rates maintained;
2. Continued tightening of US crypto regulations, continuous outflows from spot ETFs;
3. Global economic recession, all risk assets undergo valuation cuts;
Characteristics: Only slight new highs, limited bubble; after the peak, a pullback of 50-65% is still possible.
② Neutral Baseline Scenario (mainstream consensus among overseas investment banks, 45% probability)
Cycle top: $150,000 - $240,000
Bernstein, Standard Chartered, and Galaxy baseline models converge in this range.
Required conditions:
1. Substantial Federal Reserve rate cuts, US dollar liquidity easing;
2. Stable monthly net inflows in US spot ETFs, pensions and family offices maintain small allocations;
3. US crypto regulatory legislation implemented, policy uncertainty eliminated;
4. Long-term holders’ positions remain solid, exchange BTC inventories continue to decline.
Compared to the previous peak of $69,000, the neutral scenario is 2-3.5 times that peak. Institutional capital entry raises the floor but compresses the bubble’s crazy gains.
③ Optimistic Scenario (strong bubble super cycle, 25% probability)
Top: $280,000 - $380,000
All high-difficulty conditions must be met simultaneously:
1. Sovereign states and sovereign wealth funds officially include Bitcoin in national reserves;
2. Explosive inflows into ETFs, many listed companies record BTC on their balance sheets;
3. Global debt and US dollar credit narratives ferment, digital gold assets revalued;
4. No major black swan events, global liquidity extremely loose.
Cathie Wood’s $500,000+ target is an extreme ideal model and not the baseline expectation for the 2026-2027 cycle.
❌ The widely circulated "this cycle will reach $1 million" is a long-term fantasy, requiring 2-3 halving cycles and is unlikely by 2027.
Why historical gains cannot be directly copied:
1. 2017: 100x from bottom to top, very small market, purely retail-driven;
2. 2021: 20x from bottom to top, mainly Grayscale + retail;
3. 2026-2027 cycle: dominated by large institutional capital, huge market cap, multiples will be further compressed.
Even if the bull market arrives, it will not be a straight upward trend; intermediate corrections of 30-45% are expected.
Four observation indicators more important than price predictions:
1. US spot ETF monthly net inflows: stable >$1.5 billion per month is the cornerstone of bull market funds; large outflows for consecutive months require lowering bull market expectations.
2. Federal Reserve real interest rates: rate declines favor BTC; inflation rebounds and rate hikes suppress the market.
3. On-chain exchange inventories: continuous decline indicates whales accumulating; continuous increase indicates whales selling.
4. US crypto regulation: clear policies open imagination; strong crackdowns can directly end the bull market.
Risks not to be ignored:
1. Cycle dulling risk: institutional capital may flatten the traditional four-year halving cycle, causing prolonged wide-range oscillations, lengthening the bull market, or weakening the halving effect, resulting in no major bull market.
2. Even if the bull market peaks successfully, a 50-75% bear market crash will still occur afterward.
3. All predictions are based on a series of external assumptions; geopolitical events and black swans can overturn all projections at any time.
Summary in one sentence:
For the 2026-2027 cycle, neutral expectation is $150,000-$240,000; pessimistic $100,000-$130,000; optimistic $280,000-$380,000; $1 million is not part of this cycle. The bull market will not be a straight climb; there will be significant corrections, and all prices are just scenario simulations.The London Stock Exchange's rook has finally been pushed off the baseline, but that pawn that truly changed the board had already quietly stepped onto the seventh rank before the rook was moved.
In the grandmaster's bell toll, moving a piece is never about physical distance but about shifting the strategic layout. The cooperation between the London Stock Exchange and Pevord is like a carefully arranged castling: the king first retreats to a safe corner, then the rook moves to an open file. But the premise of castling is that the path must be free of attacked squares. When those xStocks externally claim to be just 1:1 price tracking without representing shareholding, I saw the flaw—this is clearly a pawn that has reached the baseline but refuses to promote. You can dress it in a queen's attire, but it lacks the queen's vision and, more importantly, the authority to strike directly at the opponent's heart from the baseline.
The battlefield in the middle game is never about the number of pieces but about control of key squares. The London Stock Exchange places the top 100 list on the board like the opening book worn down by millions of grandmaster games: famous traps have long been dismantled, leaving only the style. Within weeks, the first batch of London pieces landed, and the move scheduled for 2027 will be settled in the hourglass of approvals—this timing reveals the depth of the entire game. The truly profitable player does not move wooden pieces for the immediate thrill of a single move; they have already calculated the standoff and breakthroughs twenty moves ahead from the first move.
Now some in the market are fixated on the linked price of $xIREN, like amateurs staring at the win rate bar next to the chess clock. I don't care about the direction of that win rate bar's fluctuation; I only seek the corner of the board that says "shareholders' rights." The true touchstone of tokenizing physical assets is not whether the numbers can replicate a price chart but whether trading, settlement, and voting dividends—these real killer moves—can move from paper into code. If tokens forever remain at the "stock-like" level, then they are just an exquisite model chessboard, only for appreciation, not for checkmate.
The London Stock Exchange's move looks like sacrificing a piece. It lays down the heavy armor of century-old settlement and lets the tokenized pawn infiltrate the enemy lines alone, inviting countless ridicule for losing a controllable fortress. But in my view, this is precisely a sacrifice to gain momentum. First, give up a small illusion of ownership to gain a complete and transparent on-chain channel; when the legislative door opens in 2027, the melody of promotion will reach the king's castle before anyone else. Truly skilled players never rush to thunder in the opening; their killer moves are often hidden in the calm and pauses three clock cycles earlier.
Outsiders always like to count the number of checks, as if more sounds mean closer to victory. But we patiently block escape squares before the endgame, step by step driving the opponent's king to the edge of defeat. This game has just begun recording the moves; Pevord's rook has quietly moved out from the corner, crossing the thin pawn wall exposed by the price, heading toward the vertical line of rights.
Are you still watching the pawn's current position? I have long seen the light on the promotion square and know that once that step is taken, the entire game will never echo again. #lsetokenizesukstocksEthereum ($ETH) is currently at the intersection of short-term pressure and long-term value restructuring.
Short-term challenges are evident: impacted by geopolitical factors such as the US-Iran conflict, ETH recently fell below $2400. Technically, the $2500-$2550 range is a strong resistance zone; failure to break through may lead to a drop to $1500-$1550.
However, the long-term fundamentals are solid: Ethereum's daily average transaction count reached a record high of 2.27 million, with fees only $0.27; it holds a 54% share in the stablecoin market; DeFi locked value accounts for 53% globally.
Key catalysts: On regulation, the "CLARITY Act" if passed will establish ETH's commodity status; on technology, the "Glamsterdam" upgrade (parallel processing, gas limit raised to 200 million) and the four-year "Lean Ethereum" restructuring plan are underway.
On the institutional side, Standard Chartered Bank maintains a $4000 target by the end of 2026. In summary: short-term volatility is inevitable, but as an institutional-grade settlement infrastructure, its long-term allocation value is significant.CORE's hard fork this time: Is it one coin, or will it become two coins?
A hard fork itself ≠ necessarily creating a second coin; whether it splits depends on whether all validators on the network upgrade to the new version of the software.
Scenario 1: Ideal state (what the project team hopes to achieve, one chain with only 1 CORE)
The vast majority of validators, nodes, and exchanges upgrade to the new code.
- After the fork, there is only one chain, still only one CORE token, no new coins will appear out of thin air.
- Starting from the fork height, the new rules take effect, fixing the reward bug and stopping the excessive issuance of tokens.
- The CORE tokens mined excessively due to the past bug remain in circulation; the fork will not destroy or reclaim them (officially confirmed no rollback of history).
- Your coin quantity remains unchanged; only the network rules are fixed. Ethereum's London and Shanghai upgrades are such hard forks, maintaining a single chain with no new coins.
Scenario 2: Worst case (chain splits, resulting in two sets of tokens)
Some validators refuse to upgrade to the new version and continue running the old buggy code, causing the chain to split into two independent chains:
1. New chain (project team's main chain): bug-fixed new version, token still called CORE.
2. Old chain (run by nodes refusing to upgrade): continues with the old buggy rules, allowing continued excessive mining, generating another set of tokens (commonly called old-CORE in the market).
👉 Once split, at the snapshot moment of the fork, the amount of CORE in your wallet exists equally on both chains, effectively giving you a new set of tokens. Each coin has its own price and market, and they are not interchangeable.
This is similar to the 2016 Ethereum DAO event, which split into ETH (new chain) + ETC (old chain), two independent tokens.
Key distinction: coins on exchanges vs. in your own wallet
1. Coins on exchanges (OKX, Gate)
After the split, the choice is up to the exchange:
- Exchanges may only support the project team's new chain CORE and not distribute the old chain tokens to you;
- Or they may support both chains, crediting your account with both tokens;
During the fork window, exchanges will likely temporarily suspend deposits and withdrawals to prevent asset confusion.
2. Coins in your own private key wallet
Once the chain splits, your private key controls tokens on both chains, automatically giving you two sets of assets, but operations and transfers become complicated and there is a risk of replay attacks.
Clarifications on several key misunderstandings about this CORE event
1. ❌ "Hard fork will airdrop me new coins"
Only if the network permanently splits will a second coin appear; if the entire network upgrades uniformly, there will be only one coin, no airdrop.
2. ❌ "The coins mined excessively due to the bug before the fork will disappear or be destroyed"
The official approach is forward-only upgrades with no rollback. The fork only stops further excessive issuance; the historically mined excess CORE will not be automatically erased by the fork, so the selling pressure risk remains.
3. ❌ "Any hard fork inevitably splits into two"
Many planned hard forks on public chains are smooth single-chain upgrades; splits are a risk outcome, not an inherent result of forking.
For ordinary holders, watch these 3 signals before and after the fork
1. Whether the vast majority of validators have completed the new version upgrade (the core indicator to judge if a split will occur);
2. Announcements from major exchanges: whether deposits and withdrawals are suspended during the fork, and which chain the exchange supports if a split occurs;
3. Official incident review report: how many excess CORE tokens were mined due to the bug.
In short:
If all network nodes upgrade, after the fork there will still be only 1 CORE token; if some validators refuse to upgrade and the network splits, two independent CORE tokens will appear. The fork itself will not destroy the historically excess tokens already issued.After the Jackson Hole annual meeting, the Federal Reserve Chair expressed a hawkish stance, with the probability of a 25bp rate hike in September soaring to about 62%, but it is not set in stone and entirely depends on the upcoming non-farm payroll and CPI inflation data results.
Three scenario simulations
1️⃣ Scenario 1: A 25 basis point rate hike in September (mainstream market pricing)
Condition: Inflation rebounds, strong employment data.
Macro impact: US Treasury yields and the US dollar continue to strengthen; risk assets BTC and ETH come under pressure, likely causing sell-the-fact volatility, falling first then oscillating, with altcoins facing even greater pressure.
2️⃣ Scenario 2: Maintain rates unchanged in September, keeping the door open for future hikes
Condition: Inflation declines, employment weakens.
A somewhat positive scenario: In the short term, this will stimulate a rebound in BTC and ETH, but since the Fed does not close the door on rate hikes, the sustainability of the rise is limited, and the market remains volatile.
3️⃣ Scenario 3: Completely abandon rate hikes, signaling a dovish stance
Condition: Significant inflation decline + sharp cooling in employment.
An unexpectedly positive scenario, liquidity expectations improve, driving a rebound in the crypto market.
Key practical points for the crypto community
1. Buy the expectation, sell the fact: The market is already pricing in a September rate hike; if the hike actually happens, it may not continue to fall sharply, beware of a rebound after the negative news is fully priced in.
2. Data is king before the decision: Non-farm payroll and CPI data will significantly change the probability of a rate hike; volatility will increase around the data release, so leverage positions must be reduced.
3. Even if there is no hike in September, the possibility of a hike in December still exists; do not directly bet on a one-sided bull market.Bitcoin Next Bull Market Price Projection
⚠️ The following is based solely on public institutional research reports and historical cycle reviews and does not constitute any investment advice.
The fourth halving was completed in April 2024. Historical pattern: 12-18 months after halving is the main bull market rally window, meaning the second half of 2026 to 2027 is highly likely to be the peak period of this cycle.
However, the market is now institutionalized (spot ETFs, pensions, family offices), so the bull market gains will be diminished compared to the previous two cycles and will not replicate the several-fold rapid surge seen in 2021.
Three scenario projections (top prices for this bull market cycle):
① Pessimistic Scenario (30% probability): The bull market is a weak rebound, no super bull market.
Top: $100,000 - $130,000
Trigger conditions:
1. Repeated US inflation, very few Fed rate cuts, long-term high interest rates maintained;
2. Continued strict US crypto regulation, large continuous outflows from spot ETFs;
3. Global economic recession, all risk assets collectively devalued;
4. Institutional allocation willingness below expectations, mainly retail speculation.
Characteristics: Only new highs without huge bubbles, quickly entering a bear market after the peak, with pullbacks still reaching 50-65%.
② Neutral Baseline Scenario (mainstream institutional consensus, 45% probability)
Cycle top: $180,000 - $260,000
Representative institutions: Standard Chartered, Bernstein, Galaxy, JPMorgan baseline assumptions.
Conditions to be met simultaneously:
1. Fed initiates substantial rate cuts, weakening the US dollar;
2. US spot ETFs maintain stable monthly net inflows, pensions and family offices continue small allocations;
3. US crypto regulatory legislation is implemented, uncertainty eliminated;
4. Long-term Bitcoin holders’ positions remain solid, exchange inventories continue to decline.
Historical comparison: 2021 bull market peak was $69,000; the neutral scenario corresponds to 2.5-3.7 times the previous peak for this cycle; institutions generally believe institutional capital entry will raise the floor but compress the bubble phase’s crazy gains, making tens of times explosive growth unlikely.
③ Optimistic Scenario (super cycle/strong bubble, 25% probability)
Top: $300,000 - $420,000
All high-difficulty conditions must be met:
1. Sovereign states/large sovereign funds officially include Bitcoin in national reserves;
2. Explosive inflows into ETFs, large-scale corporate Bitcoin inclusion on balance sheets;
3. Global debt and US dollar credit narratives ferment, triggering "digital gold" asset revaluation;
4. No major black swans, extremely loose liquidity.
ARK’s Cathie Wood’s extreme optimistic model projects $500,000+, which is a low-probability ideal scenario and should not be considered expected returns.
❌ Extremely optimistic million-dollar target
Many KOLs promote BTC to $1 million, which is a very long-term super cycle fantasy, not a prediction for the 2026-2027 bull market, and likely requires crossing 2-3 halving cycles; it is almost impossible to achieve in this cycle.
Important changes in historical cycles (why previous gains cannot be simply copied)
1. 2017: 100x from bottom to top, pure retail, very small market size;
2. 2021: 20x from bottom to top, Grayscale + retail;
3. 2026-2027 this cycle: large institutional capital entry, huge market size, overall multiples further compressed, do not expect to replicate early tens-of-times wealth gains.
History: Average 530 days from halving to peak, but in the institutional era cycles can lengthen, bull market duration may extend, and corrections will deepen; it is not a straight line up, with intermediate 30-45% medium corrections.
Four core observation indicators determining this bull market ceiling (more useful than price predictions):
1. US spot ETF monthly net inflow scale: stable >$1.5 billion per month is the funding cornerstone for bull market continuation; continuous large outflows for multiple months will lower bull market height.
2. Fed real interest rates: rate declines benefit BTC; inflation rebounds and rate hikes directly shatter the bull market.
3. On-chain data: exchange BTC inventory changes; continuous inventory decline indicates whales accumulating; continuous inventory increase indicates whales selling.
4. Regulation: US regulation is the biggest variable; positive regulation opens imagination space; crackdowns directly end the bull market.
Realistic risks (bull market is not guaranteed):
1. Cycle failure risk: institutional capital may flatten the traditional four-year halving cycle, causing a "prolonged oscillating bull market," or even complete halving effect failure, resulting in long-term range-bound trading;
2. Even if the bull market comes, a 50-75% bear market crash will still occur after the peak;
3. Do not treat "bull market reaching XX price" as certain; predictions are just scenario simulations, black swans can rewrite all logic at any time.
Summary in one sentence:
For the 2026-2027 cycle, neutral expectation is $180,000-$260,000; pessimistic $100,000-$130,000; optimistic $300,000-$420,000; $1 million is not part of this cycle. The bull market is not a straight rise; there will be large corrections in between. All predictions are based on a series of assumptions about macroeconomics, capital, and regulation.THE $BTC ETF STORY ISN’T AS SIMPLE AS +31%
Bitcoin ETFs attracted $3.52B in August, lifting total net assets from $76.29B to $99.61B. But most of that asset growth came from BTC’s price appreciation, not fresh capital.
The bigger signal: ETFs were still ~$1.77B net negative for 2026 after August. Then September opened with a $236.46M outflow, the largest since July 31.
So the real question for $BTC: was August accumulation, or distribution into strength?
#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds Bitcoin Next Bull Market Price Projection
⚠️ The following is based solely on public institutional research reports and historical cycle reviews and does not constitute any investment advice.
The fourth halving was completed in April 2024. Historical pattern: 12-18 months after halving is the main bull market rally window, meaning the second half of 2026 to 2027 is highly likely to be the peak period of this cycle.
However, the market is now institutionalized (spot ETFs, pensions, family offices), so the bull market gains will be diminished compared to the previous two cycles and will not replicate the several-fold rapid surge seen in 2021.
Three scenario projections (top prices for this bull market cycle):
① Pessimistic Scenario (30% probability): The bull market is a weak rebound, no super bull market.
Top: $100,000 - $130,000
Trigger conditions:
1. Repeated US inflation, very few Fed rate cuts, long-term high interest rates maintained;
2. Continued strict US crypto regulation, large continuous outflows from spot ETFs;
3. Global economic recession, all risk assets collectively devalued;
4. Institutional allocation willingness below expectations, mainly retail speculation.
Characteristics: Only new highs without huge bubbles, quickly entering a bear market after the peak, with pullbacks still reaching 50-65%.
② Neutral Baseline Scenario (mainstream institutional consensus, 45% probability)
Cycle top: $180,000 - $260,000
Representative institutions: Standard Chartered, Bernstein, Galaxy, JPMorgan baseline assumptions.
Conditions to be met simultaneously:
1. Fed initiates substantial rate cuts, weakening the US dollar;
2. US spot ETFs maintain stable monthly net inflows, pensions and family offices continue small allocations;
3. US crypto regulatory legislation is implemented, uncertainty eliminated;
4. Long-term Bitcoin holders’ positions remain solid, exchange inventories continue to decline.
Historical comparison: 2021 bull market peak was $69,000; the neutral scenario corresponds to 2.5-3.7 times the previous peak for this cycle; institutions generally believe institutional capital entry will raise the floor but compress the bubble phase’s crazy gains, making tens of times explosive growth unlikely.
③ Optimistic Scenario (super cycle/strong bubble, 25% probability)
Top: $300,000 - $420,000
All high-difficulty conditions must be met:
1. Sovereign states/large sovereign funds officially include Bitcoin in national reserves;
2. Explosive inflows into ETFs, large-scale corporate Bitcoin inclusion on balance sheets;
3. Global debt and US dollar credit narratives ferment, triggering "digital gold" asset revaluation;
4. No major black swans, extremely loose liquidity.
ARK’s Cathie Wood’s extreme optimistic model projects $500,000+, which is a low-probability ideal scenario and should not be considered expected returns.
❌ Extremely optimistic million-dollar target
Many KOLs promote BTC to $1 million, which is a very long-term super cycle fantasy, not a prediction for the 2026-2027 bull market, and likely requires crossing 2-3 halving cycles; it is almost impossible to achieve in this cycle.
Important changes in historical cycles (why previous gains cannot be simply copied)
1. 2017: 100x from bottom to top, pure retail, very small market size;
2. 2021: 20x from bottom to top, Grayscale + retail;
3. 2026-2027 this cycle: large institutional capital entry, huge market size, overall multiples further compressed, do not expect to replicate early tens-of-times wealth gains.
History: Average 530 days from halving to peak, but in the institutional era cycles can lengthen, bull market duration may extend, and corrections will deepen; it is not a straight line up, with intermediate 30-45% medium corrections.
Four core observation indicators determining this bull market ceiling (more useful than price predictions):
1. US spot ETF monthly net inflow scale: stable >$1.5 billion per month is the funding cornerstone for bull market continuation; continuous large outflows for multiple months will lower bull market height.
2. Fed real interest rates: rate declines benefit BTC; inflation rebounds and rate hikes directly shatter the bull market.
3. On-chain data: exchange BTC inventory changes; continuous inventory decline indicates whales accumulating; continuous inventory increase indicates whales selling.
4. Regulation: US regulation is the biggest variable; positive regulation opens imagination space; crackdowns directly end the bull market.
Realistic risks (bull market is not guaranteed):
1. Cycle failure risk: institutional capital may flatten the traditional four-year halving cycle, causing a "prolonged oscillating bull market," or even complete halving effect failure, resulting in long-term range-bound trading;
2. Even if the bull market comes, a 50-75% bear market crash will still occur after the peak;
3. Do not treat "bull market reaching XX price" as certain; predictions are just scenario simulations, black swans can rewrite all logic at any time.
Summary in one sentence:
For the 2026-2027 cycle, neutral expectation is $180,000-$260,000; pessimistic $100,000-$130,000; optimistic $300,000-$420,000; $1 million is not part of this cycle. The bull market is not a straight rise; there will be large corrections in between. All predictions are based on a series of assumptions about macroeconomics, capital, and regulation.Bitcoin Next Bull Market Price Projection (2026-2027 Cycle)
⚠️ The following is based solely on public institutional research reports and historical cycle reviews and does not constitute any investment advice.
The fourth halving was completed in April 2024. Historical pattern: 12-18 months after halving is the main bull market rally window, so the second half of 2026 to 2027 is highly likely to be the peak period of this cycle.
However, the market is now institutionalized (spot ETFs, pensions, family offices), so the bull market gains will be diminished compared to the previous two cycles and will not replicate the several-fold rapid surge seen in 2021.
Three scenario projections (top prices for this bull market cycle):
① Pessimistic Scenario (30% probability): The bull market is a weak rebound without a super bull market.
Top: $100,000 - $130,000
Trigger conditions:
1. Repeated US inflation, very few Fed rate cuts, maintaining high interest rates long-term;
2. Continued strict US crypto regulation, large continuous outflows from spot ETFs;
3. Global economic recession, collective valuation cuts across all risk assets;
4. Institutional allocation willingness below expectations, mainly retail speculation.
Characteristics: Only new highs without a huge bubble; after the peak, a rapid bear market follows with a pullback still reaching 50-65%.
② Neutral Baseline Scenario (mainstream institutional consensus, 45% probability)
Cycle top: $180,000 - $260,000
Representative institutions: Standard Chartered, Bernstein, Galaxy, JPMorgan baseline assumptions.
Conditions to be met simultaneously:
1. Fed initiates substantial rate cuts, weakening the US dollar;
2. US spot ETFs maintain stable monthly net inflows, pensions and family offices continue small allocations;
3. US crypto regulatory legislation is implemented, uncertainty eliminated;
4. Long-term Bitcoin holders’ positions remain solid, exchange inventories continue to decline.
Historical comparison: 2021 bull market peak was $69,000; the neutral scenario corresponds to 2.5-3.7 times the previous peak for this cycle; institutions generally believe institutional capital entry will raise the floor but compress the bubble phase’s crazy gains, making tens-of-times surges unlikely.
③ Optimistic Scenario (super cycle/strong bubble, 25% probability)
Top: $300,000 - $420,000
All high-difficulty conditions must be met:
1. Sovereign states/large sovereign funds officially include Bitcoin in national reserves;
2. Explosive inflows into ETFs, large-scale corporate Bitcoin balance sheet adoption;
3. Global debt and US dollar credit narratives ferment, triggering "digital gold" asset revaluation;
4. No major black swan events, extremely loose liquidity.
ARK’s Cathie Wood’s extreme optimistic model projects $500,000+, which is a low-probability ideal scenario and should not be considered expected returns.
❌ Extremely optimistic million-dollar target
Many KOLs promote BTC to $1 million, which is a very long-term super cycle fantasy, not a prediction for the 2026-2027 bull market. It likely requires crossing 2-3 halving cycles and is almost impossible in this cycle.
Important changes in historical cycles (why you can’t simply copy previous gains)
1. 2017: 100x from bottom to top, pure retail, very small market size;
2. 2021: 20x from bottom to top, Grayscale + retail;
3. 2026-2027 cycle: large institutional capital entry, huge market size, overall multiples further compressed, don’t expect early-stage tens-of-times wealth gains.
History: Average 530 days from halving to peak, but in the institutional era cycles can lengthen, bull market duration may extend, and corrections deepen; it’s not a straight line up, with intermediate 30-45% medium corrections.
Four core observation indicators determining this bull market ceiling (more useful than price predictions):
1. US spot ETF monthly net inflow scale: stable >$1.5 billion per month is the funding cornerstone for bull market continuation; consecutive large outflows for multiple months will lower bull market height.
2. Fed real interest rates: rate declines benefit BTC; inflation rebounds and rate hikes directly shatter the bull market.
3. On-chain data: changes in exchange BTC inventory; continuous inventory decline indicates whales accumulating; continuous inventory increase indicates whales selling.
4. Regulation: US regulation is the biggest variable; positive regulation opens imagination space; crackdowns directly end the bull market.
Realistic risks (bull market is not guaranteed):
1. Cycle failure risk: institutional capital may flatten the traditional four-year halving cycle, causing a "prolonged oscillating bull market" or even complete halving effect failure, resulting in long-term range-bound trading;
2. Even if the bull market comes, after the peak a 50-75% bear market crash will still occur;
3. Don’t treat "bull market reaching XX price" as certain; predictions are just scenario simulations, black swans can rewrite all logic anytime.
Summary in one sentence
For the 2026-2027 cycle, neutral expectation is $180,000-$260,000; pessimistic $100,000-$130,000; optimistic $300,000-$420,000; $1 million is not part of this cycle. The bull market is not a straight rise; there will be significant pullbacks. All predictions are based on a series of macro, capital, and regulatory assumptions.Why does Bitcoin rise every 4 years?
⚠️ Market review only, not investment advice; the crypto market is highly volatile.
This can be divided into six major layers: supply side, demand side, macro liquidity, regulatory expectations, chip and leverage, narrative and belief.
1. Supply side: Scarcity, four-year halving (fundamental basis)
Total permanent cap of 21 million coins, no additional issuance.
Halving occurs every 4 years, cutting miners' daily new Bitcoin production in half, reducing new selling pressure in the market.
- Historical pattern: The market often trades ahead of halving expectations; major peaks mostly appear 12-18 months after halving.
- Current status: 94% of Bitcoin has been mined, with fewer new coins entering circulation; a large amount of coins remain unmoved long-term (whales hoarding, cold wallets), reducing liquid chips on exchanges, so a small amount of capital can push prices up.
2. Demand side: Real buying pressure, institutions are the biggest variable this cycle
1. US spot ETFs
BlackRock and other ETFs provide pension funds, family offices, and ordinary Americans a compliant channel to buy BTC; continuous net inflows into ETFs represent ongoing passive buying and are the most important indicator of the mid-term trend.
2. Public companies hoarding coins (e.g., MicroStrategy)
Companies convert part of their cash into Bitcoin on their balance sheets, continuously buying and directly absorbing circulating market chips.
3. Global retail and high-net-worth allocations
Treat Bitcoin as "digital gold" to hedge fiat overissuance and geopolitical risks.
3. Macro liquidity (largest impact, primary short-term driver)
Bitcoin is a highly elastic risk asset, highly sensitive to US dollar liquidity.
1. Fed rate cut expectations, US Treasury yields declining
Lower risk-free interest rates cause funds to flow out of bonds into stocks, Bitcoin, and other risk assets; when Treasury yields surge, Bitcoin usually comes under pressure.
2. Weakening US dollar makes Bitcoin priced in dollars more likely to rise.
Simply put: In a loose liquidity environment, Bitcoin is more likely to bull; when liquidity tightens, even strong narratives are easily suppressed.
4. Regulatory policy expectations
- Positive: Clear crypto legislation in the US, softer SEC stance, ETF approvals, more countries allowing compliant holdings will open space for incremental capital inflows.
- Negative: Comprehensive bans and strict regulations directly suppress the market.
A large part of the bull market is trading on "expectations of improved regulation."
5. Chip structure + leverage short squeeze (short-term surge catalyst)
1. Long-term on-chain holders do not move: large amounts of BTC locked in cold wallets, not sold, shrinking circulating supply.
2. Derivatives leverage: When price breaks key resistance, a large number of accumulated short positions are forcibly liquidated; shorts buying coins to close positions become passive buying pressure, further driving prices up—this is a short squeeze. Many rapid large green candles come from leverage liquidations, not all from spot buying.
6. Narrative belief: value consensus
Two core narratives:
1. Inflation resistance, hedge against fiat depreciation: governments can print money, but Bitcoin’s total supply cannot be changed.
2. Decentralized digital value storage, not controlled by any single country.
The narrative itself does not directly drive price up but attracts capital willing to allocate, turning the story into real money.
Conversely, what can interrupt the rise?
1. Fed rate hikes again, liquidity tightening; US Treasury yields continue rising.
2. ETFs shift from net inflows to sustained large redemptions, institutional capital withdraws.
3. Global economic crisis, all risk assets crash together.
4. Major negative regulatory news.
5. Excessive leverage accumulation followed by concentrated long liquidations causing a crash.
In summary
Halving tightens supply as the foundation; macro liquidity determines the overall environment; ETFs and institutional funds provide incremental buying; regulation opens institutional space; leverage and sentiment amplify price swings.
Looking at a single factor alone leads to misjudgment; multiple factors must resonate together to produce a major bull market.Bitcoin Bull Market Price Projection (2026-2027 Cycle)
⚠️ The following is based solely on public institutional research reports and historical cycle reviews and does not constitute any investment advice.
The fourth halving was completed in April 2024. Historical pattern: 12-18 months after halving is the main bull market rally window, meaning the second half of 2026 to 2027 is highly likely to be the peak period of this cycle.
However, the market is now institutionalized (spot ETFs, pensions, family offices), so the bull market gains will be diminished compared to the previous two cycles and will not replicate the several-fold rapid surge seen in 2021.
Three scenario projections (top prices for this bull market cycle):
① Pessimistic Scenario (30% probability): The bull market is a weak rebound without a super bull market.
Top: $100,000 - $130,000
Trigger conditions:
1. Repeated US inflation, very few Fed rate cuts, long-term high interest rates maintained;
2. Continued strict US crypto regulation, large continuous outflows from spot ETFs;
3. Global economic recession, all risk assets collectively devalued;
4. Institutional allocation willingness below expectations, mainly retail speculation.
Characteristics: Only new highs without huge bubbles, quickly entering a bear market after the peak, with a pullback still reaching 50-65%.
② Neutral Baseline Scenario (mainstream institutional consensus, 45% probability)
Cycle top: $180,000 - $260,000
Representative institutions: Standard Chartered, Bernstein, Galaxy, JPMorgan baseline assumptions.
Conditions to be met simultaneously:
1. Fed initiates substantial rate cuts, weakening the US dollar;
2. US spot ETFs maintain stable monthly net inflows, pensions and family offices continue small allocations;
3. US crypto regulatory legislation is implemented, uncertainty eliminated;
4. Long-term Bitcoin holders’ positions remain solid, exchange inventories continue to decline.
Historical comparison: 2021 bull market peak was $69,000; the neutral scenario corresponds to 2.5-3.7 times the previous cycle’s peak; institutions generally believe institutional capital entry will raise the floor but compress the bubble phase’s crazy gains, making tens of times explosive growth unlikely.
③ Optimistic Scenario (super cycle/strong bubble, 25% probability)
Top: $300,000 - $420,000
All high-difficulty conditions must be met:
1. Sovereign states/large sovereign funds officially include Bitcoin in national reserves;
2. Explosive inflows into ETFs, companies massively write Bitcoin into their balance sheets;
3. Global debt and US dollar credit narratives ferment, leading to a "digital gold" asset revaluation;
4. No major black swan events, extremely loose liquidity.
ARK’s Cathie Wood’s extreme optimistic model projects $500,000+, which is a low-probability ideal scenario and should not be considered expected returns.
❌ Extremely optimistic million-dollar target
Many KOLs promote BTC reaching $1 million, which is a very long-term super cycle fantasy, not a prediction for the 2026-2027 bull market. It likely requires crossing 2-3 halving cycles and is almost impossible in this cycle.
Important changes in historical cycles (why previous gains cannot be simply copied):
1. 2017: 100x from bottom to top, pure retail, very small market size;
2. 2021: 20x from bottom to top, Grayscale + retail;
3. 2026-2027 cycle: large institutional capital entry, huge market size, overall multiples further compressed, do not expect to replicate early tens-of-times wealth gains.
History: Average 530 days from halving to peak, but in the institutional era cycles can lengthen, bull market duration may extend, and corrections will deepen. It is not a straight line up; intermediate 30-45% medium corrections will occur.
Four core observation indicators determining this bull market ceiling (more useful than price predictions):
1. US spot ETF monthly net inflow scale: stable >$1.5 billion per month is the funding cornerstone for bull market continuation; continuous large outflows for several months will lower the bull market height.
2. Fed real interest rates: rate declines benefit BTC; inflation rebounds and resumed rate hikes will directly shatter the bull market.
3. On-chain data: changes in exchange BTC inventory; continuous inventory decline indicates whales hoarding; continuous inventory increase indicates whales selling.
4. Regulation: US regulation is the biggest variable; positive regulation opens imagination space; crackdowns directly end the bull market.
Realistic risks (bull market is not guaranteed):
1. Cycle failure risk: institutional capital may flatten the traditional four-year halving cycle, resulting in a "prolonged oscillating bull market," or even complete halving effect failure with no big bull market, long-term range-bound trading;
2. Even if the bull market comes, a 50-75% bear market crash will still occur after the peak;
3. Do not treat "bull market reaching XX price" as certain; predictions are just scenario simulations, black swans can rewrite all logic at any time.
Summary in one sentence:
For the 2026-2027 cycle, neutral expectation is $180,000-$260,000; pessimistic $100,000-$130,000; optimistic $300,000-$420,000; $1 million is not part of this cycle. The bull market is not a straight rise; there will be large corrections in between. All predictions are based on a series of assumptions about macroeconomics, capital, and regulation.Bitcoin Next Bull Market Price Projection (2026-2027 Cycle)
⚠️ The following is based solely on public institutional research reports and historical cycle reviews and does not constitute any investment advice.
The fourth halving was completed in April 2024. Historical pattern: 12-18 months after halving is the main bull market rally window, so the second half of 2026 to 2027 is highly likely to be the peak period of this cycle.
However, the market is now institutionalized (spot ETFs, pensions, family offices), so the bull market gains will be diminished compared to the previous two cycles and will not replicate the several-fold rapid surge seen in 2021.
Three scenario projections (top prices for this bull market cycle):
① Pessimistic Scenario (30% probability): The bull market is a weak rebound without a super bull market.
Top: $100,000 - $130,000
Trigger conditions:
1. Repeated US inflation, very few Fed rate cuts, maintaining high interest rates long-term;
2. Continued strict US crypto regulation, large continuous outflows from spot ETFs;
3. Global economic recession, collective valuation cuts across all risk assets;
4. Institutional allocation willingness below expectations, mainly retail speculation.
Characteristics: Only new highs without a huge bubble; after the peak, a rapid bear market follows with a pullback still reaching 50-65%.
② Neutral Baseline Scenario (mainstream institutional consensus, 45% probability)
Cycle top: $180,000 - $260,000
Representative institutions: Standard Chartered, Bernstein, Galaxy, JPMorgan baseline assumptions.
Conditions to be met simultaneously:
1. Fed initiates substantial rate cuts, weakening the US dollar;
2. US spot ETFs maintain stable monthly net inflows, pensions and family offices continue small allocations;
3. US crypto regulatory legislation is implemented, uncertainty eliminated;
4. Long-term Bitcoin holders’ positions remain solid, exchange inventories continue to decline.
Historical comparison: 2021 bull market peak was $69,000; the neutral scenario corresponds to 2.5-3.7 times the previous peak for this cycle; institutions generally believe institutional capital entry will raise the floor but compress the bubble phase’s crazy gains, making tens-of-times surges unlikely.
③ Optimistic Scenario (super cycle/strong bubble, 25% probability)
Top: $300,000 - $420,000
All high-difficulty conditions must be met:
1. Sovereign states/large sovereign funds officially include Bitcoin in national reserves;
2. Explosive inflows into ETFs, large-scale corporate Bitcoin balance sheet adoption;
3. Global debt and US dollar credit narratives ferment, triggering "digital gold" asset revaluation;
4. No major black swan events, extremely loose liquidity.
ARK’s Cathie Wood’s extreme optimistic model projects $500,000+, which is a low-probability ideal scenario and should not be considered expected returns.
❌ Extremely optimistic million-dollar target
Many KOLs promote BTC to $1 million, which is a very long-term super cycle fantasy, not a prediction for the 2026-2027 bull market. It likely requires crossing 2-3 halving cycles and is almost impossible in this cycle.
Important changes in historical cycles (why you can’t simply copy previous gains)
1. 2017: 100x from bottom to top, pure retail, very small market size;
2. 2021: 20x from bottom to top, Grayscale + retail;
3. 2026-2027 cycle: large institutional capital entry, huge market size, overall multiples further compressed, don’t expect early-stage tens-of-times wealth gains.
History: Average 530 days from halving to peak, but in the institutional era cycles can lengthen, bull market duration may extend, and corrections deepen; it’s not a straight line up, with intermediate 30-45% medium corrections.
Four core observation indicators determining this bull market ceiling (more useful than price predictions):
1. US spot ETF monthly net inflow scale: stable >$1.5 billion per month is the funding cornerstone for bull market continuation; consecutive large outflows for multiple months will lower bull market height.
2. Fed real interest rates: rate declines benefit BTC; inflation rebounds and rate hikes directly shatter the bull market.
3. On-chain data: changes in exchange BTC inventory; continuous inventory decline indicates whales accumulating; continuous inventory increase indicates whales selling.
4. Regulation: US regulation is the biggest variable; positive regulation opens imagination space; crackdowns directly end the bull market.
Realistic risks (bull market is not guaranteed):
1. Cycle failure risk: institutional capital may flatten the traditional four-year halving cycle, causing a "prolonged oscillating bull market" or even complete halving effect failure, resulting in long-term range-bound trading;
2. Even if the bull market comes, after the peak a 50-75% bear market crash will still occur;
3. Don’t treat "bull market reaching XX price" as certain; predictions are just scenario simulations, black swans can rewrite all logic anytime.
Summary in one sentence
For the 2026-2027 cycle, neutral expectation is $180,000-$260,000; pessimistic $100,000-$130,000; optimistic $300,000-$420,000; $1 million is not part of this cycle. The bull market is not a straight rise; there will be significant pullbacks. All predictions are based on a series of macro, capital, and regulatory assumptions.Glassnode: Bitcoin will remain range-bound, resistance at $83,000‑$86,000
Glassnode's latest on-chain report points out that after this rebound, $BTC is unlikely to break out into a unilateral main rally directly; in the short term, it will most likely maintain a range-bound pattern, with $83,000‑$86,000 being a very heavy supply resistance zone.
This range accumulates a large amount of long-term holders' chips, with many trapped positions returning near their cost lines, creating strong profit-taking selling pressure. Even if ETF funds continue to flow in, if incremental buying cannot absorb the selling pressure above, the market can easily surge and then fall back again, returning to a box range for back-and-forth movement.
At the same time, derivatives leverage has not risen crazily, and the market is generally cautious. Key support below is concentrated at $76,000‑$77,000, with a supply wall above and buying support below, Bitcoin is stuck oscillating between these two major ranges.
Personal view: $83,000‑$86,000 is the "true or false watershed" of this bull market.
Holding above this range with volume means new funds have completely absorbed old chips, and the market will open new space; multiple failed attempts to break through means be prepared for a long period of range-bound consolidation.
Do not blindly chase highs just because of a rebound, and do not preset a definite breakout.
In practice, keep a base position in spot, do not go all-in betting on a breakout; avoid chasing longs near the resistance zone in contracts, consider positioning again on pullbacks to support. Focus on two signals: sustained ETF fund inflows and whether volume can push a real close above $86,000. The script has changed again.
Last night, just after the US-Iran conflict ended and Washington was still flexing its muscles, BTC dropped to a low of $76,762, and ETH fell below $2,400. Then tonight, as soon as the small nonfarm payroll data came out—August ADP added only 38,000 jobs, below the expected 48,000, marking the smallest increase since January—the market immediately reversed.
The 30-year US Treasury yield plunged sharply, US stock futures turned positive, BTC rebounded to around $77,200, ETH returned to $2,409, and the 24-hour declines narrowed to 1.9% and 2.6%, respectively. Sandisk (SNDK) also surged pre-market from a drop of over 2% to a rise of 2.5%.
The market overnight resumed trading on the logic of "the economy can't hold up, rate hikes may stop." So when you connect the dots over the past two days, it becomes clear: geopolitical conflicts push oil prices → rate hike expectations rise → risk assets get hit; data softens → rate hike expectations cool → risk assets catch a breather. This back-and-forth happens rapidly. $BTC C $ETH $SNDK
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 Complete Logic of Bitcoin's Price Increase
⚠️ Market review only, not investment advice; the crypto market is highly volatile
It can be divided into six major layers: supply side, demand side, macro liquidity, regulatory expectations, chip and leverage, narrative and belief.
1. Supply Side: Scarcity, Four-Year Halving (Fundamental Basis)
Total permanent cap of 21 million coins, no additional issuance.
Halving occurs every 4 years, cutting miners' daily new Bitcoin output in half, reducing new market selling pressure.
- Historical pattern: The market often trades ahead of halving expectations; major tops mostly appear 12-18 months after halving.
- Current status: 94% of Bitcoin has been mined, with fewer new coins entering circulation; a large amount of coins remain unmoved long-term (whales hoarding, cold wallets), reducing liquid chips on exchanges, so small amounts of capital can push prices up.
2. Demand Side: Real Buying Pressure, Institutions Are the Biggest Variable This Cycle
1. US Spot ETFs
BlackRock and other ETFs provide pensions, family offices, and ordinary Americans a compliant channel to buy BTC; continuous net inflows into ETFs represent ongoing passive buying and are the most important indicator of the mid-term trend.
2. Listed Companies Hoarding Coins (e.g., MicroStrategy)
Companies convert part of their cash into Bitcoin on their balance sheets, continuously buying and directly absorbing circulating market chips.
3. Global Retail and High Net Worth Allocation
Treat Bitcoin as "digital gold" to hedge fiat overissuance and geopolitical risks.
3. Macro Liquidity (Most Impactful, Primary Short-Term Driver)
Bitcoin is a highly elastic risk asset, highly sensitive to US dollar liquidity.
1. Fed rate cut expectations and declining US Treasury yields
Lower risk-free interest rates cause funds to flow out of bonds into stocks and risk assets like Bitcoin; when Treasury yields surge, Bitcoin usually comes under pressure.
2. Weakening US dollar makes Bitcoin priced in dollars easier to rise.
Simply put: In a loose liquidity environment, Bitcoin is more likely to bull; in tight liquidity, even strong narratives are easily suppressed.
4. Regulatory Policy Expectations
- Positive: Clear US crypto legislation, softened SEC stance, ETF approvals, more countries allowing compliant holdings will open space for incremental capital inflows.
- Negative: Total bans and strict regulations directly suppress the market.
A large part of the bull market is trading on "expectations of improved regulation."
5. Chip Structure + Leverage Short Squeeze (Short-Term Surge Catalyst)
1. Long-term holders on-chain do not move: large amounts of BTC locked in cold wallets, not sold, shrinking circulating supply.
2. Derivatives leverage: when price breaks key resistance, accumulated short positions are forcibly liquidated; shorts buying coins to close positions become passive buying, further driving up prices—this is a short squeeze. Many rapid large bullish candles come from leverage liquidations, not all from spot buying.
6. Narrative and Belief: Value Consensus
Two core narratives:
1. Inflation resistance, hedge against fiat depreciation: governments can print money, but Bitcoin’s total supply cannot be changed.
2. Decentralized digital value storage, not controlled by any single country.
The narrative itself does not directly drive price up but attracts capital willing to allocate, turning the story into real money.
Conversely, what can interrupt the rise?
1. Fed rate hikes again, liquidity tightening; US Treasury yields continue rising.
2. ETFs shift from net inflows to sustained large redemptions, institutional funds withdraw.
3. Global economic crisis, all risk assets crash together.
4. Major negative regulatory news.
5. Excessive leverage accumulation followed by concentrated long liquidations and panic selling.
Summary in one sentence
Halving tightens supply as the foundation; macro liquidity determines the overall environment; ETFs and institutional funds provide incremental buying; regulation opens institutional space; leverage and sentiment amplify price swings.
Relying on a single factor leads to misjudgment; only multiple factors resonating together can produce a major bull market.Total supply of 2.1 billion challenged? CORE's "8.31" incident embroiled in "token minting" controversy
Online circulating views:
"$CORE is a shocking scam, the project team staged a trick that was exposed, the protocol code was changed on the 31st, the circulating supply surged, which equals token minting. There were traces on Twitter long ago, the protocol was modified a week ago, the project team deliberately concealed it; official tweets repeatedly emphasized the total supply of 2.1 billion two weeks ago, which is like hiding something obvious."
I. Confirmed objective facts
1. Official announcement on August 31: a bug in the protocol reward logic occurred, a small number of validators received block rewards exceeding protocol rules, user assets and network security were not compromised.
- It was not the project team manually modifying contract permissions in the backend; it was a consensus-layer reward calculation logic bug; it was not unlimited minting out of thin air, but an abnormal mining reward distribution.
- Coinbase suspended deposits and withdrawals, LBank suspended deposits, these were risk responses by exchanges, not due to asset theft.
- The official promised to release a full incident review report afterward, but has not disclosed the exact amount of excess output, whether it will be recovered or destroyed, which remains the biggest controversy in the community.
2. CORE's maximum cap is fixed at 2.1 billion tokens, released gradually over an 81-year cycle; the controversy over this bug is whether it released future mining rewards early or minted extra tokens exceeding the 2.1 billion cap. On-chain data has not yet conclusively determined this.
3. The official repeatedly emphasized the total token supply of 2.1 billion in previous tweets as routine tokenomics education, but did not warn about this technical vulnerability a week before the bug surfaced, which is a key point of community suspicion.
II. Which online claims are speculation and which cannot be verified
❌ Online claim: The project team knew about the protocol tampering a week ago and staged a fake exposure on the 31st.
This is community speculation without on-chain evidence or official internal leaks. Blockchain protocol bugs can be triggered only at specific block heights; the code may have latent risks but not immediately manifest, and the team may not have reproduced the issue in advance.
⚠️ Key distinction:
1. Malicious manual contract modification to mint tokens (scam): the project team uses admin privileges to directly mint new tokens, which is fraudulent.
2. Protocol code bug causing reward overflow: a code logic flaw causing reward miscalculation, a technical accident, but still impacts supply and harms token holders.
The official classifies this incident as the second type, but because the amount of excess tokens and handling plans have not been disclosed, many investors suspect it is effectively disguised manual minting, causing huge disagreement.
III. Real impact on token holders
1. Existing CORE balances held in exchanges and wallets have not been tampered with; assets will not be wiped out directly.
2. The risk lies in: if a large amount of excess tokens enter the market circulation, it will cause massive sell pressure and suppress the token price; if the team does not destroy or roll back the excess tokens, the tokenomics credibility will be severely damaged.
3. Some exchanges have already placed CORE on watchlists, with potential delisting risks.
IV. Three key signals ordinary participants need to track
1. Official full incident review report disclosing how many excess CORE tokens were produced;
2. Handling plan for overflow tokens: recovery, destruction, or allowing market circulation;
3. Subsequent changes in deposit, withdrawal, and trading policies for CORE by major exchanges.
Summary: The confirmed fact is an abnormal protocol reward incident, but the community speculation that "the project team knew in advance and staged a scam" lacks solid evidence; regardless of intent, the abnormal token supply is a very serious trust crisis for the project.Will CORE be delisted by exchanges due to this crisis?
⚠️ Risk warning: Virtual currencies are not legally protected domestically, this is only an objective review and does not constitute investment advice.
First, distinguish three different levels; many people confuse "suspending deposits and withdrawals," "placing on watchlist," and "complete delisting":
1. Suspension of deposits and withdrawals (current status): trading can still occur, but on-chain deposits and withdrawals are locked, which is a temporary risk control measure and does not mean delisting. Coinbase, Bitget, Gate, and OKX have partially implemented this.
2. Placed on delisting watchlist: South Korea's Bithumb has put CORE on the Delisting Watchlist, meaning a risk review has started, giving the project a window for rectification. It is not delisted yet; trading continues normally during the observation period.
3. Official delisting (Delist): spot trading pairs are closed, deposits stopped, only withdrawal window remains; this is the worst outcome. Currently, OKX, Gate, and Coinbase have not announced any delisting.
I. Most likely scenario: no immediate delisting but continued high-pressure monitoring
If all the following conditions are met, exchanges will likely keep trading and later resume deposits and withdrawals:
1. Emergency hard fork is successfully completed, with the vast majority of validators upgraded and no chain split (no second CORE chain emerges);
2. The project team releases a complete incident review report on time, truthfully disclosing how many excess CORE tokens were produced;
3. Clarify the status of overflow tokens: how many have entered the secondary market, how many remain with malicious validators, and provide a disposal plan (even if only publicly disclosed without rollback);
4. No recurrence of supply anomalies or major protocol bugs;
5. Token trading volume and liquidity remain above the exchange's minimum threshold.
Exchange logic: This is a protocol code bug, not a team-initiated malicious inflation scam or team abandonment. As long as the loophole is fully closed and information is transparent, exchanges generally will not delist immediately but provide a rectification window.
Currently, major exchanges have only frozen deposits and withdrawals to protect themselves, awaiting the fork implementation and full report; trading remains available.
II. Three key bad signals triggering actual delisting (any one greatly increases delisting probability)
1. Hard fork failure causing permanent chain split
Some high-weight validators refuse to upgrade, creating a second chain; exchanges cannot determine which is the "real CORE" and will delist trading pairs to avoid risk.
2. Project team continuously conceals data, refuses to disclose excess issuance quantity, or it is found that the actual excess issuance is huge, severely breaking the 2.1 billion total supply model; exchanges judge the token economic model as effectively invalid.
3. After the fork, similar reward bugs reoccur, continuing excess token issuance, proving the project team cannot fix the underlying technical issues.
Additional: Pure price crashes, community disputes, or bearish KOLs do not trigger delisting; delisting depends on technology, supply, team, and liquidity, not price movements.
III. Different exchanges' attitudes
1. South Korea's Bithumb: already on delisting watchlist, strictest regulation; if the report is unsatisfactory, it is the most likely leading exchange to delist CORE first.
2. Coinbase: only suspends deposits and withdrawals, spot trading normal, waiting for network stability, not yet on watchlist.
3. Gate and OKX: currently mainly suspending deposits and withdrawals as risk control, no official announcement of watchlist inclusion; will continue monitoring fork results and review reports.
Note: Delisting varies by platform; Exchange A may delist CORE while Exchange B continues trading; there is no global simultaneous delisting.
IV. Practical advice for token holders, focus on 4 public signals (priority from high to low)
1. ✅ Hard fork execution results: whether chain split occurred, whether two block explorers exist;
2. ✅ Official complete review report: exact quantity of excess CORE issued, the core indicator;
3. ✅ Announcements from major exchanges: whether "deposits and withdrawals resume," "placed on watchlist," or "direct delisting";
4. ✅ Network operation after fork: whether reward anomalies reoccur.
V. Misconceptions corrected
❌ Misconception 1: Suspension of deposits and withdrawals means immediate delisting
Wrong! Suspension during fork is a standard risk control measure; many major public chain upgrades temporarily lock deposits and withdrawals, trading remains normal, not equal to delisting.
❌ Misconception 2: As long as a hard fork is done, exchanges will definitely keep CORE
No, the fork only fixes the bug; if the fork fails or chain splits, delisting evaluation will still be triggered.
❌ Misconception 3: If overflow tokens are not rolled back or destroyed, delisting is inevitable
Not necessarily; exchanges focus more on whether the loophole is fully closed and information is transparent. Historically, some public chain bugs caused overflow without rollback but continued normal listing after clear disclosure.
Brief summary
No immediate delisting now, but already under risk observation.
Fate depends entirely on two things: ① whether the hard fork can be smoothly implemented without splitting; ② whether the project team dares to fully disclose how many excess CORE tokens were produced.
If the fork fails or data is continuously concealed, the risk of official delisting will sharply increase.SpaceX target price raised to $280
SpaceX has recently regained bullish sentiment on Wall Street.
Oppenheimer has just raised the $SPCX target price from $250 to $280, mainly due to its AI business. Analysts believe SpaceX is rapidly expanding its AI computing power, planning to increase capacity from 1.4GW in 2026 to 10GW in 2027.
But the current stock price is only around $140, not far from the IPO price of $135.
I actually think we shouldn't just focus on the $280 target price here.
About 319 million shares will become available for sale on September 9, and another batch after September 24, so short-term supply pressure still exists.
I am very optimistic about SpaceX as a company, but stocks are a different matter.
With a market cap approaching $1.9 trillion and a forward PE near 200 times, the market has already priced in very high growth expectations.
So my view remains the same:
SpaceX can be great, but $SPCX is not necessarily worth buying at any price.
I will continue to wait for the lock-up pressure to ease and look for a more comfortable entry point. Once the ADP employment data was released, $BTC started showing signs of action again.
The US added only 38,000 jobs in August according to ADP, below market expectations, indicating the US job market is continuing to cool down. More importantly, the real nonfarm payroll data for September 4 has not yet been released, so the market is likely to continue trading around the theme "cooling employment = Fed policy shift" in the next couple of days.
For BTC, this logic is actually quite straightforward:
The worse the employment, the easier it is for rate cut expectations to heat up;
As rate cut expectations rise, the dollar and US Treasury yields come under pressure;
Improved liquidity expectations make high-volatility assets like BTC more likely to attract capital attention.
Currently, BTC is still fluctuating around $77,000, not far from the psychological barrier of $80,000.
But we can’t directly treat the ADP data as a positive trigger here.
Because recently oil prices have risen again, the 10-year US Treasury yield once surged above 4.8%, and geopolitical tensions are pushing inflation concerns higher. The Fed is not facing a simple "worsening employment" situation.
So the real data to wait for is Friday’s nonfarm payroll.
If the nonfarm payroll continues to be significantly below expectations, once BTC breaks above $80,000 with volume, the market may enter an acceleration phase again.
Conversely, if the nonfarm payroll suddenly beats expectations, the support around $77,000 needs to be watched carefully.
Don’t rush to guess tops or bottoms these two days; first focus on employment data and US Treasury yields. BTC’s next move is very likely hidden there.Complete Analysis of OKX Delisting Rules: 8 Things You Need to Know from Token Hiding to Official Delisting
⚠️ This article only discloses the rules and does not constitute investment advice.
First, distinguish three things
Delisting on-chain earning/staking financial products ≠ Delisting spot trading pairs
Delisting spot trading pairs ≠ Immediate withdrawal suspension
Delisting financial products is product contraction, not token delisting or market exit
OKX handles tokens in two levels: 【Hidden Tokens】warning observation and 【Official Delist of spot trading pairs】. The official stance is "including but not limited to," and the exchange reserves final discretion.
1. Compliance and Legal Risks (Highest Priority)
Project team/founders are investigated or sued by the SEC or overseas regulators for securities violations, market manipulation, fraud
Project involved in money laundering, pyramid schemes, or other major criminal negatives
Regional regulatory new rules restrict the token from compliant operation in that area, triggering regional delisting
Major changes in core team or project sold without prior notification to the exchange for re-evaluation
2. Token Supply and Contract Technical Risks (Corresponding to CORE 8.31 Scenario)
Failure to notify exchange and users 15 days in advance, unauthorized total supply increase, hard forks, token splits—high-risk triggers
Note: Code bugs causing reward overflow or abnormal minting, even if not admin minting, will trigger risk assessment and observation list entry.
Public chain mainnet frequent failures, repeated block anomalies, frequent deposit/withdrawal errors
Major contract vulnerabilities, multiple hacks and thefts, no comprehensive remediation plan
Existence of 51% hash power attack risk, network security concerns
3. Liquidity and Trading Hard Metrics (Most Common Delisting Reasons)
Trading pair daily average volume below 5 BTC for 7 consecutive days
Zero trades in 24 hours, extremely poor depth, huge slippage
Project team faking trading volume
Many small tokens delist not due to malice but simply liquidity failure.
4. Team, Operations, and Development Fundamentals Deterioration
Official website inaccessible, Twitter/community unattended for over two weeks, team unreachable
No development/ecosystem progress on official channels for 1 month
GitHub public chain protocol no code commits for 3 consecutive months
Whitepaper roadmap seriously delayed without explanation
Foundation locked tokens sold in large amounts violating lockup plans or lockup plans not executed
Major information fraud deceiving exchange and investors
Marketing activities seriously damaging platform or community interests
5. Two States: Hidden VS Official Delisting
Hidden Tokens (Observation period, not delisting)
Trading still possible, just not shown in default lists/rankings, visible via search
Provide a rectification window; if standards met, display restored; if worsened, escalate to official delisting
Official Delist (spot trading pair delisting) typical process (based on OKX actual announcements)
Announcement issued, deposit suspended (e.g., ULTI/GEAR/VRA deposits suspended from 2026/1/20 08:00 UTC)
Spot trading closed at set time, open orders automatically canceled (system cancellation takes 1–3 business days)
Assets moved to "Funding Account / Untradable assets," withdrawal window retained (from several days up to about 3 months, e.g., MAJOR/J trading stopped early June, withdrawal stopped August 26)
After window ends, withdrawal closed completely, exchange no longer custodial
Key: Delisting trading pairs ≠ token value zero; tokens remain on public chain, just no longer traded or custodied by the exchange.
6. Delisting "On-chain earning/staking financial products" ≠ Token Delisting
Example: CORE/PYTH delisting on-chain earning means the exchange no longer acts as staking agent; orders mature and principal + earnings auto-redeemed to funding account; spot trading and deposits/withdrawals unaffected.
Common reasons:
Long staking unlock periods, protocol bug risks, exchange bears redemption responsibility
Stricter overseas regulation on centralized platform DeFi staking
High node maintenance costs, mismatched yield risks
7. CORE 8.31 Incident Realistic Interpretation
Nature: A few validators’ block rewards exceeded protocol design (reward distribution layer logic bug), not manual minting by project backend, no user asset theft; but failure to announce 15 days in advance + abnormal supply triggered OKX observation list conditions
Not immediate delisting; follow-up depends on four points:
Official full review + exact overflow token quantity
Overflow token handling (recovery/destruction/allow circulation)
Whether supply abnormalities recur
Whether liquidity remains compliant
Only if risk is unsolvable will official delisting proceed
8. Practical Checklist for Token Holders
Check announcement classification: delisting financial product / hidden token / spot trading pair delisting
Distinguish: product function delisting ≠ token delisting
If entering hidden/observation state → monitor official review and handling plan
Withdrawal window provided → withdraw to self-custody wallet during window (note UTC and Beijing time conversion, keep network confirmation margin)
Check "Untradable assets" dead zone in account; don’t wait until cutoff day to act #Nonfarm data divergence before release, September rate hike expectations heat up #Robinhood on-chain volume surge, coin-stock Meme sparks controversy $CORE Brothers, please follow, don't get lost! Repost: In the community, there are cautious voices like "Validator bug = precursor to zeroing out" and "OKX deposit = old chips cashing out." Last night, I increased my CORE observation position from 3% to 8%, buying at an average price of 0.0206, with a stop loss set at 0.0167. I'm not crazy; I'm looking at the bug incident, order book, and deposit nature together. The short-term pricing has already factored in the worst-case scenario. 1. Bug incident: Not a hacker theft, but "issuance layer bug + forward hard fork" On 8/31, Core DAO officially confirmed: a minority of validators received block rewards exceeding the 81-year release curve. On 9/1, malicious validators were contained, and an emergency coordinated hard fork was implemented (forward upgrade, no rollback, user assets safe). Three key points: The issue concerns validator reward issuance, not user wallets or contract theft — different from LUNA/FTX insolvency cases The hard fork is complete; Coinbase/Bithumb/Coinone/Bitget/LBank have resumed deposits and withdrawals, and the network is operating normally The excess issuance amount has not been disclosed, but the official insists the 2.1B cap was not breached, with a postmortem and possible buyback/burn remedies forthcoming Market overreaction: CORE dropped from around 0.0214 to 0.020–0.021, with 24H volume only 4–6 million USD, such thin liquidity " Market prices have pulled back, but institutional funds are positioning counter-trend
Currently, the market shows an interesting divergence: during the phase of price correction and decline, institutions have not exited; instead, they continue to accumulate chips on dips.
Currently, BTC is quoted at 77200, ETH at 2390, SOL has fallen back to 99, the overall market is weakening, many retail investors have fallen into panic, but institutional funds are quietly accumulating. The market is in a game phase before the non-farm payroll data release, with September rate hike expectations heating up, and the market's long-short divergence intensifying.
Data shows that last week crypto funds had a net inflow of 3.2 billion USD, the highest since October 2025. Among them, BTC spot ETFs had a weekly net inflow of 1.9 billion USD, ETH spot ETFs inflowed 697 million USD. BitMine continued to increase holdings by 53,501 ETH, with total holdings reaching 5.9 million ETH, accounting for 4.9% of Ethereum's total supply. Strategy also resumed Bitcoin purchases, buying 4,603 BTC at an average price of 80,318 USD.
Prices are pulling back downward, but funds continue to flow in; on-chain data clearly shows institutional activity. Price trends and capital flows are diverging, large funds are absorbing selling pressure during the decline.
However, fund inflows do not mean the market will immediately reverse; macro-level risks still hang over the market, and the BTC-gold correlation is also being tested. The market will most likely maintain the status quo, waiting for the non-farm data to land before choosing a true direction.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 CORE's Emergency Hard Fork This Time: Plain Language Explanation of the Real Purpose
⚠️For event education only, not investment advice
The official clearly calls it a forward-only upgrade, with no rollback of history.
1. Core Purpose: Only Block the Future, Not Modify the Past
The problem: A bug in the reward calculation code allows a minority of validators to continuously mine extra CORE tokens.
If not fixed, every new block going forward will continue to produce extra tokens, worsening inflation and completely invalidating the 2.1 billion total supply commitment.
The primary goal of the fork: to permanently seal this vulnerability so the bug can never recur, preventing further over-issuance and "continued bleeding."
⚠️The most important point (many misunderstand this)
This fork will not turn back time, nor will it reclaim or destroy the excess CORE tokens already generated by the bug.
Those extra tokens are already in some validators' wallets, and all historical transactions remain intact and will not be erased.
Analogy: If a water pipe at home bursts and leaks, this fork just shuts off the leaking valve; the water already spilled on the floor won't disappear automatically.
2. Why the Project Team Did Not Choose a "Chain Rollback" to Reclaim the Extra Tokens?
Rollback means rewinding the entire chain's time and invalidating all transactions during the bug period.
But rollback has huge costs:
1. All ordinary users' transfers, staking, and exchange deposits/withdrawals during that time would be revoked, unfairly affecting many innocent users;
2. The core of a public chain is "once a transaction is confirmed, it cannot be altered." Arbitrary rollbacks would destroy the chain's credibility, causing exchanges and institutions to abandon it.
Therefore, the project team chose a compromise: block the vulnerability but accept the facts that have already occurred.
3. Secondary Real Purposes (Business and Public Opinion)
1. To reassure exchanges
Exchanges like Coinbase and LBank have suspended deposits and withdrawals; exchanges fear the "infinite inflation risk." The hard fork fixing the bug proves the issue is resolved, making it possible for exchanges to resume deposit and withdrawal functions.
2. To restore trust in the token economic model
The community's biggest fear: will there be infinite inflation, breaking the 2.1 billion hard cap?
The fork signals externally: the bug is fixed, no more excess issuance, preserving the "2.1 billion total supply" narrative.
However: the amount of tokens already overflowed has not yet been disclosed, remaining the biggest unresolved question.
3. To punish malicious validators (only for future behavior)
The new fork rules can restrict, penalize, or revoke validation rights from malicious validators; but cannot reclaim the excess tokens they have already obtained.
4. ❌ Clarification of Several Incorrect Rumors Online
1. ❌"Fork means destroying and reclaiming the extra minted tokens"
→ Wrong! The official clearly states no rollback; tokens already produced will not disappear automatically. The fork only prevents future occurrences.
2. ❌"Hard fork = project team wants to mint new tokens"
→ Wrong, this is a bug fix, not a new token issuance feature; it stops further inflation, not initiates it.
3. ❌"After the fork, the token price will immediately surge and the crisis is over"
→ No. The risk is not fully gone: the excess tokens are still in the market, just no more will be added; the key is to see the full incident report disclosing exactly how many CORE were over-issued.
5. Three Major Things Token Holders Should Watch Next
1. Whether the hard fork executes smoothly: will there be chain splits (some nodes not upgrading, creating a second chain);
2. The official full post-mortem report: exactly how many excess CORE were produced? This is the most critical data;
3. Handling of overflow tokens: will they be left circulating in the market, or will there be proposals to destroy or reclaim them (the fork itself does not automatically handle old overflow tokens);
4. Announcements from major exchanges: when will deposits and withdrawals resume, and are there any trading restrictions.
In short, the fork's purpose
The emergency hard fork is solely to seal the vulnerability that allows future over-issuance; but the excess CORE already created by the bug will not be reclaimed or destroyed by the fork itself. The real risk lies in the scale of the already circulating excess tokens.In-depth analysis of the performance of Nvidia, Rocket (Commercial Space), and AI sectors on September 3
Risk Warning: U.S. stocks belong to overseas markets and are affected by multiple risks including exchange rates, Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical issues, and overseas regulations. The following is only an objective summary of publicly available market information and does not constitute any investment advice. It is strictly prohibited to use this as a direct basis for trading. Overseas stock trading carries a high risk of loss.
On September 3 Beijing time, the U.S. stock market was in a critical window before the release of August non-farm payroll data, with strong market caution prevailing. The high-valuation growth sectors were generally suppressed by high U.S. Treasury yields, showing clear internal differentiation: AI computing hardware represented by Nvidia demonstrated fundamental resilience and experienced a recovery rebound; AI application software sectors saw continuous capital outflows; the commercial space rocket sector relied more on thematic narratives, lacking short-term performance realization, with its trend fluctuating with overall market risk appetite and showing large volatility. September is historically a month when tech stocks in the U.S. tend to pull back, and institutional quarterly portfolio adjustments further amplify sector volatility. Changes in interest rate expectations are the core variable determining the short-term direction of these three sectors.
Nvidia (NVDA) closed up 3.21% overnight at $224.41, with a total market capitalization of $541 billion and a single-day trading volume exceeding $34 billion, indicating very active market trading. After a round of profit-taking at high levels, Nvidia has entered a recovery phase supported by positive industry chain factors. Dell Technologies reported better-than-expected earnings and significantly raised its full-year AI server revenue guidance. Strong capital expenditure on computing power downstream indirectly confirms the continued robust demand for chip hardware, supporting Nvidia's fundamentals. On the news front, Nvidia announced a $3.5 billion investment in MediaTek to deepen cooperation in AI infrastructure, automotive AI, and other fields, expanding its business boundaries; CEO Jensen Huang publicly called on countries to increase AI infrastructure investment, strengthening market expectations for long-term AI expansion and boosting bullish sentiment in the sector.
On the capital side, institutional opinions are divided: some funds are replenishing positions on positive news, while many institutions are taking profits at the rebound highs. Nvidia's valuation is currently relatively high, and its stock price is highly sensitive to changes in U.S. Treasury yields. If the non-farm payroll data released tonight is significantly strong, the market will raise the probability of Federal Reserve rate hikes, pushing Treasury yields higher again, which would pressure Nvidia's valuation contraction; if the data falls short of expectations and interest rate expectations cool down, Nvidia will have the opportunity to continue testing higher levels. Fundamental risks also objectively exist: rising costs of HBM memory chips will squeeze gross margins, and cloud providers' self-developed chips and competitors' product iterations will continue to divert market orders, with growth sustainability subject to ongoing market scrutiny.
The commercial space rocket sector, with SpaceX as the core representative, slightly declined 1.07% overnight on September 2, with trading volume close to $7 billion. The sector overall shows characteristics of "a rich long-term story but insufficient short-term performance realization." From an industry logic perspective, reusable rockets continue to iterate, Starlink satellite networking advances, and the new concept of space computing power is fermenting. The market imagines deploying AI data centers in space, using solar energy to solve power and cooling bottlenecks of ground data centers, opening up long-term industry imagination. However, on the market front, the sector largely belongs to a thematic track driven by risk appetite spillover, with limited short-term revenue and profit release. Although SpaceX's Starlink business can generate stable profits, rocket launches and space AI projects continue to incur large losses, consuming substantial cash flow, and market patience for long-term narratives is decreasing.
The sector's trend is highly tied to two points: first, global overall risk appetite—when U.S. tech stocks strengthen, space themes tend to attract speculative funds; during market risk aversion, high-valuation themes are sold off first. Second, event catalysts—only starship test flights, satellite launch plans, and large order announcements can trigger pulse-like rallies. Without major news, the sector struggles to achieve independent upward momentum. In early September, the market awaits a new round of starship launch tests, which will be an important short-term catalyst but carries failure risks and may cause sharp stock price fluctuations. Overall, commercial space is a high-elasticity, high-risk sector with large story potential but a long performance realization cycle and notable volatility risks.
The AI sector showed clear internal differentiation on the morning of September 3: the computing hardware chain demonstrated strong resilience, while AI software applications continued to face pressure. On the computing side, besides Nvidia, the chip, server, and optical module industry chains fluctuated with the broader market, supported by ongoing capital expenditure from global cloud providers, maintaining fundamental support; in contrast, AI application software, despite continuous iteration of large model technology, has seen enterprise payment conversion fall short of earlier optimistic market expectations, with commercialization progress lagging behind prior stock price gains, leading to continuous capital outflows and ongoing adjustments.
The AI sector has now left behind the broad rally phase, entering a "weeding out the false from the true" stage. Capital no longer purely speculates on concepts but begins to differentiate companies based on real orders and revenue realization capabilities. Companies that secure solid computing power orders and achieve commercialization will attract capital; those relying solely on narrative without revenue realization will face continued valuation pressure. The AI sector as a whole is very sensitive to U.S. Treasury yields; as a long-duration growth asset, rising risk-free rates directly suppress the sector's overall valuation level.
Summarizing the overall market logic on September 3, the core common variable for Nvidia, commercial space rockets, and the AI sector is the upcoming non-farm payroll data. The strength of employment data will directly alter Federal Reserve policy expectations, drive Treasury yield fluctuations, and thus determine the short-term direction of high-valuation tech assets. Under the baseline scenario, the sectors will maintain a volatile tug-of-war before the data release; only if the non-farm data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations will a one-sided market be triggered. Nvidia, relying on solid hardware fundamentals, has better volatility resistance than AI software and commercial space thematic stocks; the rocket sector is thematic speculation with the highest elasticity and risk.
Going forward, key focus should be on the non-farm data results and the immediate reactions of Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index, which will set the overall tone for the tech sector in the coming days. It is important to reiterate that overseas stock trading involves multiple risks such as exchange rates, time differences, and overseas regulations. High-valuation growth stocks are highly volatile, and ordinary investors should avoid blindly chasing highs and rationally view the industry's long-term narratives and short-term stock price fluctuations.CORE's hard fork this time: Is it one coin, or will it become two coins?
A hard fork itself ≠ necessarily creating a second coin; whether it splits depends on whether all validators on the network upgrade to the new version of the software.
Scenario 1: Ideal state (what the project team hopes to achieve, one chain with only 1 CORE)
The vast majority of validators, nodes, and exchanges upgrade to the new code.
- After the fork, there is only one chain, still only one CORE token, no new coins will appear out of thin air.
- Starting from the fork height, the new rules take effect, fixing the reward bug and stopping the excessive issuance of tokens.
- The CORE tokens mined excessively due to the past bug remain in circulation; the fork will not destroy or reclaim them (officially confirmed no rollback of history).
- Your coin quantity remains unchanged; only the network rules are fixed. Ethereum's London and Shanghai upgrades are such hard forks, maintaining a single chain with no new coins.
Scenario 2: Worst case (chain splits, resulting in two sets of tokens)
Some validators refuse to upgrade to the new version and continue running the old buggy code, causing the chain to split into two independent chains:
1. New chain (project team's main chain): bug-fixed new version, token still called CORE.
2. Old chain (run by nodes refusing to upgrade): continues with the old buggy rules, allowing continued excessive mining, generating another set of tokens (commonly called old-CORE in the market).
👉 Once split, at the snapshot moment of the fork, the amount of CORE in your wallet exists equally on both chains, effectively giving you a new set of tokens. Each coin has its own price and market, and they are not interchangeable.
This is similar to the 2016 Ethereum DAO event, which split into ETH (new chain) + ETC (old chain), two independent tokens.
Key distinction: coins on exchanges vs. in your own wallet
1. Coins on exchanges (OKX, Gate)
After the split, the choice is up to the exchange:
- Exchanges may only support the project team's new chain CORE and not distribute the old chain tokens to you;
- Or they may support both chains, crediting your account with both tokens;
During the fork window, exchanges will likely temporarily suspend deposits and withdrawals to prevent asset confusion.
2. Coins in your own private key wallet
Once the chain splits, your private key controls tokens on both chains, automatically giving you two sets of assets, but operations and transfers become complicated and there is a risk of replay attacks.
Clarifications on several key misunderstandings about this CORE event
1. ❌ "Hard fork will airdrop me new coins"
Only if the network permanently splits will a second coin appear; if the entire network upgrades uniformly, there will be only one coin, no airdrop.
2. ❌ "The coins mined excessively due to the bug before the fork will disappear or be destroyed"
The official approach is forward-only upgrades with no rollback. The fork only stops further excessive issuance; the historically mined excess CORE will not be automatically erased by the fork, so the selling pressure risk remains.
3. ❌ "Any hard fork inevitably splits into two"
Many planned hard forks on public chains are smooth single-chain upgrades; splits are a risk outcome, not an inherent result of forking.
For ordinary holders, watch these 3 signals before and after the fork
1. Whether the vast majority of validators have completed the new version upgrade (the core indicator to judge if a split will occur);
2. Announcements from major exchanges: whether deposits and withdrawals are suspended during the fork, and which chain the exchange supports if a split occurs;
3. Official incident review report: how many excess CORE tokens were mined due to the bug.
In short:
If all network nodes upgrade, after the fork there will still be only 1 CORE token; if some validators refuse to upgrade and the network splits, two independent CORE tokens will appear. The fork itself will not destroy the historically excess tokens already issued.The market is falling, but the truly important signals may not be in the price
The market started to show pressure in September.
BTC is currently still around $77K, with market trading sentiment cautious, and both derivatives volume and DEX trading volume have noticeably cooled recently. (MarketWatch)
But one data point is worth noting:
The total market cap of stablecoins is still close to $304B.
It has grown about 1.3% in the past 30 days, with USDT accounting for about 60%. (DefiLlama)
This means:
Market prices are cooling down, but the "dollar liquidity" on-chain has not retreated in sync.
What’s even more noteworthy is that traditional finance is accelerating its entry.
On September 1, 21 financial institutions including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citi, and Deutsche Bank announced plans to establish companies aiming to launch dollar stablecoins by 2027. (Reuters)
The significance of this may be greater than BTC rising or falling by a few percentage points on any given day.
Because stablecoins are evolving from:
Crypto Trading → Payments → Banking Infrastructure
Of course, stablecoin growth ≠ immediate capital inflow into BTC.
So now we should focus more on four indicators:
Stablecoin Supply
Exchange Balances
On-chain Volume
Real-world Payment Usage
Meanwhile, about $1.5B worth of tokens will unlock in the first week of September, with HYPE, SUI, ENA, and others worth continuous observation. (CryptoRank)
My judgment is simple:
Don’t just study the price.
What’s truly worth studying is:
Has capital left?
Has user growth occurred?
Has liquidity decreased?
Has the protocol generated revenue?
Has the token truly captured value?
Price is just the result.
Capital, users, liquidity, and value capture are the reasons.
#Crypto #OnChain #Stablecoins #DeFi #RWA #Tokenomics September 3 Global Market Morning Report: In-depth Analysis of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and U.S. Stock Market
Risk Warning: Virtual currency trading is an illegal financial activity explicitly prohibited in China and is not protected by law. Leveraged trading can easily result in a total loss of principal. The U.S. stock market is an overseas market with multiple risks including exchange rate, geopolitical, and policy risks. The following is an objective summary of publicly available market information and does not constitute any investment advice. Participation in trading is strictly prohibited.
As of the morning of September 3 Beijing time, the overnight overseas markets have completed a full trading session. Global risk assets have collectively entered a critical waiting period, with all market focus on the upcoming release of the U.S. August nonfarm payroll data. Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and the U.S. stock market remain highly correlated. U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar index, Middle East geopolitical conflicts, and crude oil prices jointly dominate asset pricing logic. The U.S. stock market closed with a slightly volatile recovery overnight, cryptocurrencies maintained a range-bound tug-of-war throughout the day, derivative market positions remain elevated, and the overall market sentiment is cautious. Both bulls and bears await the major data release to provide new direction. Short-term technical support and resistance levels have limited effectiveness under news shocks, and intraday spikes and rapid fluctuations pose risks that cannot be ignored.
Bitcoin (BTC) has been in a phase of consolidation and digestion after a rally as of the morning of September 3. After failing to break through the $81,000–$82,000 resistance zone, bullish momentum has continued to wane. The current main trading range is between $75,800 and $77,800. Reviewing the previous trend, Bitcoin saw a significant rise throughout August, driven by institutional funds entering via spot ETFs. However, market logic shifted noticeably entering September. Hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium increased market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has remained near a high level around 4.78% for an extended period, suppressing valuations of risk-free assets and directly limiting Bitcoin’s upside rebound space. On the capital side, a significant turning point has occurred: the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has shifted from sustained large net inflows to a phase of substantial net outflows, with some institutional investors taking profits at high levels. Incremental buying is clearly insufficient, lacking enough capital to push prices to challenge previous all-time highs again.
On-chain data shows that large whale accounts have not engaged in massive concentrated selling, providing some bottom support. However, ordinary retail investors continue to take profits at high levels, reducing market consensus on the long side. Open interest in derivatives remains high, with many long and short orders clustered at key price levels. Once prices touch these critical points, forced liquidations are easily triggered, amplifying intraday price swings. The crypto market has no daily price limits; daily fluctuations of thousands of dollars are normal. Regulatory rumors, official statements, and sudden changes in Middle East situations can instantly reverse market direction. Relying solely on technical indicators for market judgment has limited reference value. The core variables this morning remain U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index. If the nonfarm payroll data exceeds expectations, Treasury yields will continue rising and the dollar will strengthen, putting pressure on Bitcoin to test lower support levels. Only if the nonfarm data weakens, leading to a decline in yields and a recovery in global risk appetite, will Bitcoin have the conditions to retest upper resistance. Geopolitically, ongoing Middle East conflicts continue to push up oil prices, raising market concerns about inflation rebounding and indirectly reinforcing the Fed’s logic to maintain high interest rates, which continuously suppresses Bitcoin indirectly.
Ethereum (ETH) is a typical high-beta risk asset, with price movements closely following Bitcoin but generally exhibiting greater volatility. The trading range on the morning of September 3 remains between $2,310 and $2,430. During market uptrends, Ethereum often outperforms Bitcoin, but when risk aversion rises, its pullbacks are also deeper. Besides the systemic impact from Bitcoin, Ethereum is influenced by multiple factors including its own spot ETF fund flows, DeFi on-chain activity, staking unlocks, and sector rotation. The ETH/BTC ratio remains low, indicating market capital allocation still favors Bitcoin, making it difficult for Ethereum to mount an independent rally. Regarding capital structure, Ethereum’s spot ETF still sees small intermittent inflows, but the scale and sustainability are far less than Bitcoin’s ETF, insufficient to drive an independent uptrend based on fundamentals. Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum has weaker institutional support and faster capital outflows during risk-off phases, resulting in lower resilience. The morning market scenario can be summarized as Bitcoin holding its consolidation range while Ethereum follows with range-bound consolidation; if Bitcoin breaks key support levels decisively, Ethereum will likely experience a deeper correction.
U.S. stocks closed slightly higher overnight with the three major indices. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 showed relatively stable performance, while the Nasdaq experienced greater volatility and pronounced sector divergence. The AI hardware sector performed strongly, while application software sectors saw notable pullbacks. Dell Technologies surged on better-than-expected earnings, Nvidia and other AI chip leaders closed higher, but some software service companies retreated significantly, reflecting capital rotation within the AI sector. Historically, September is traditionally a weak month for U.S. stocks, known as the “September curse.” Institutions conduct quarterly portfolio rebalancing, combined with market repricing of the Fed’s rate path, accumulating short-term correction risks. High U.S. Treasury yields directly suppress high-valuation growth sectors like AI and semiconductors, which dominate the Nasdaq’s weighting, causing greater Nasdaq volatility. Tensions in the Middle East keep international oil prices high, raising inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations for the Fed to maintain high rates or even hike further, continuously suppressing stock valuations.
The entire market is currently in a quiet period ahead of the nonfarm payroll release. The vast majority of institutions choose to reduce positions to avoid uncertainty and are reluctant to make large directional bets before the major data release. The correlation between U.S. stocks and crypto assets remains high, sharing the same global risk appetite logic. Strength in U.S. tech stocks raises risk appetite, indirectly benefiting Bitcoin and Ethereum; collective sell-offs in U.S. stocks lead to unified reductions in high-risk assets, pressuring cryptocurrencies simultaneously. There is also a capital siphoning effect: as U.S. stocks become more profitable, some speculative funds flow back from crypto to stocks; when risk aversion spikes, capital withdraws simultaneously from both markets, causing crypto-related stocks to fluctuate in tandem with Bitcoin, further confirming their linkage.
In summary, the core contradictions among Bitcoin, Ethereum, and U.S. stocks on the morning of September 3 center on Fed policy expectations, U.S. Treasury yields, oil prices, Middle East geopolitical risks, and the upcoming nonfarm payroll data. Under the baseline scenario, before the data release, the market is likely to continueLast time at the SanDisk seminar, I shorted all the way up to 1800 and got liquidated. On September 30th, Micron's earnings report is coming, I need to find a position to lay in some long orders.
Brothers, I've taken a big loss in the storage chip sector once before.
On August 13th at the SanDisk seminar, I shorted from 1200 all the way up, but it directly surged to 1800 and I got liquidated. That lesson taught me: in front of earnings reports and guidance, don't go against the trend.
Micron's earnings report is on September 30th. The market expects Q4 revenue of $50.8 billion, a 348% year-over-year increase, a gross margin of 86%, and EPS of $31±1. Q3 gross margin soared from 38% to 85%, with the data center segment generating $13.8 billion in one quarter.
But the market is very strange. SanDisk has risen 550% in 2026, still 33.5% below its historical high. All the news is positive—HBM spot prices have been炒到 five times the long-term contract price, PC memory prices are up 60% and still sold out, but the stock price is just sideways without breaking the previous high. The market is waiting for September 30th to give direction.
There are two more variables: Micron's Taiwan union is brewing a strike, with nearly 10,000 employees demanding profit sharing; ChangXin Memory has started trial production of HBM3E, with technology lagging 3-5 years, the domestic substitution narrative is not good news for Micron.
My judgment: earnings will most likely beat expectations, and the storage market's prosperity has not yet seen a turning point. The lesson from last liquidation is still fresh, I won't take the opposite side again. I'll wait for the earnings report to land before making a move.
$SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX Dell's earnings exceeded expectations, and AI demand is very strong. However, Bitcoin and Ethereum did not rise accordingly, indicating that the market is currently more concerned about costs.
Crypto pricing has shifted to macro factors; non-farm payrolls have a greater impact than Dell's earnings.
Data ahead of non-farm payrolls is diverging, with the probability of a September rate hike soaring to 68%. ISM manufacturing PMI declined but the price index remains high; the job market appears stable on the surface but is cooling internally.
Bitcoin fell below 78,000, ETH fell below 2,400
#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 $ETH $SOL $BTC On-chain activity is warming up, quietly rewriting the valuation logic of leading projects in the DEX sector. In the past 24 hours, UNI protocol fees surpassed $10 million, briefly overtaking CRCL to rank second in the entire market, only about $6 million behind the leader Tether. It is worth noting that Tether's revenue essentially comes from interest income on USDT; if considering only protocol fees generated from on-chain transaction matching, UNI has actually taken the top spot in the crypto market.
A more direct driver comes from the deflationary mechanism. Data shows that UNI has recently been continuously repurchasing and burning tokens, with daily burn volumes exceeding 100,000 tokens, valued at about $600,000, repeatedly setting new historical highs. The rise in income combined with ongoing burns creates resonance, providing solid fundamental support for the price.
Additionally, the catch-up logic in market sentiment should not be overlooked. $PUMP and $HYPE, which share the "money printing machine" narrative, have already seen several-fold increases. In horizontal comparison, UNI's relative valuation still appears restrained and is viewed by some funds as a just-starting undervalued opportunity. In the short term, fundamentals and sentiment form a combined force; however, it should be noted that the burn scale is still small compared to protocol income, and price elasticity depends more on the continuation of market risk appetite. $UNI
Risk warning: Crypto assets are highly volatile, and on-chain data and price trends do not correspond linearly. Please view market narratives rationally and manage your positions carefully. This time Bitcoin is really more resilient than gold
76,000 to 80,000 is becoming a key area
The market environment these past two days has actually been very bad.
Oil prices once broke through $90, US Treasury yields rose to 4.81%, gold dropped from 4700 all the way down to 4300, and US stocks have also been continuously adjusting.
But $BTC is still basically locked between $76,000 and $80,000.
I think this is actually very important.
Because this time it's not that there are no negative factors, but there are many negatives, yet BTC has not continued to experience a large sell-off.
Of course, the funding side still needs to be watched; the latest BTC ETF single-day net outflow is about $236 million, among which BlackRock IBIT outflowed about $201 million.
So now BTC has actually entered a very interesting phase:
The macro environment is very bad, ETFs are flowing out, but the price just won't fall much.
If it continues to hold near 76,000, after the pressure from US Treasury yields and oil prices eases, I would rather expect $BTC to challenge 80,000 again, even the previous high of $81,400.
$XAU #BTC high-level pullback, gold linkage is being tested SanDisk has risen back again
AI storage shortages may be more severe than the market expects
$SNDK recently returned above $1500, rising about 6% in the previous trading session. What I think is truly worth noting is the AI storage demand behind it.
Dell recently directly pointed out that the biggest supply constraint for AI servers remains DRAM, followed by NAND. The market expects NAND Flash contract prices to possibly rise about 60% quarter-over-quarter this quarter.
SanDisk's own revenue last quarter reached $8.97 billion, a year-over-year increase of 372%, with data center business growing 437% for the full year. Meanwhile, the company has also expanded its stock buyback program to $15.5 billion.
So SanDisk's fundamentals are indeed very strong now.
But my view remains the same: the company is good, but the price is no longer cheap.
Earlier I chose to take profits at a high level; now I won't chase the price just because it has risen again. I'll wait for the next more comfortable pullback opportunity.
$xSNDK $SOL has dropped back to $100
But there is a major positive event at the end of September
SOL recently followed the overall market correction and has now returned to around $100.
Yesterday, after the escalation of the US-Iran situation, oil prices breaking through $95, and US Treasury yields surging to about 4.8%, funds immediately sold off high-volatility assets first. SOL's single-day drop exceeded 3%, significantly more than BTC.
But I think $SOL still has a very important upcoming date.
On September 28, the Alpenglow upgrade is officially activated.
This upgrade will restructure Solana's consensus mechanism and greatly improve transaction finality speed. It is one of the most important technical upgrades for Solana this year.
Moreover, Bitwise's SOL staking ETF BSOL asset size has already surpassed $1 billion.
So near $100, I will not be bearish just because of the macro pullback.
In the short term, watch $BTC; by the end of the month, watch Alpenglow. The real catalyst for SOL is still ahead. G20 releases a major signal, ushering in a new era of global standardized regulation for crypto assets
One piece of news worth the attention of everyone interested in digital assets: G20 countries have reached a consensus to promote the establishment of a clearer global regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and stablecoins.
The core goal of this set of rules is to make digital assets safer and more transparent worldwide, enhancing the usability of assets. Many people might interpret this news as the G20 about to fully open up cryptocurrencies, but the reality is not that simple.
The real key point here is that the underlying logic of global regulation on crypto assets is undergoing a transformation.
In the past, when countries discussed crypto assets, the focus was mostly on how to impose restrictions, prevent financial risks, and combat illegal activities such as money laundering, with an emphasis on prevention and control.
Currently, the discussion direction has clearly shifted to how to establish a sound regulatory system, promote standardized industry operations, consider how to reasonably accept institutional capital entry, and explore feasible ways to integrate stablecoins into the existing financial system.
This does not mean a complete opening but a shift from mere blocking to a governance approach of "regulation + standardization." The implementation of unified global rules will bring short-term compliance pains but, in the long run, clear regulations will reduce institutional participation concerns and profoundly influence the future development trajectory of the crypto market.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 $ETH has had net capital inflows for 12 consecutive days, which is more worth watching than the price itself.
Recently, $ETH has fallen back to around $2400. On the surface, it doesn't look as strong as BTC did a few days ago, but there is an important signal on the capital side that I find significant.
In the latest trading day, BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of about $236 million, but ETH ETFs continued to have a net inflow of about $11 million, marking 12 consecutive trading days of net inflows.
This is interesting.
With the macro environment so poor right now, oil prices and US Treasury yields rising together, and high-volatility altcoins like SOL falling, institutional funds in ETH have not shown obvious withdrawal.
So, around $2400, I am actually not too pessimistic.
Money is flowing out of $BTC, but money is still flowing into ETH.
If the macro environment eases a bit later, I think it’s only a matter of time before ETH challenges $2500 to $2550 again, and after breaking through, we can look at $2800. $ETH Ethereum Real-Time Market
Current Price: $2,391 (MEXC 05:02 $2,392.73 / OKX 05:54 $2,390.98 Previous Close ~2,414 → Today Asia Session tested 2,357, retraced to 2,391)
Intraday Range: $2,357.08–$2,428.62 (MEXC 24h; Last night 9/2 low 2,356 → Today Asia session high 2,428, did not reach 2,490, four attempts failed at 2,530–2,547, structure unchanged)
Market Cap: ~ $288.8B (120.68M × 2,391), dominance ~10.8%
Volume: 24h Spot $13.2B (TheBlock total volume) / MEXC single exchange $364.55M, volume shrank after last night’s liquidation, recovering in Asia session (CoinGlass 24h ETH futures liquidation ~$94.2M)
Sentiment: Fear & Greed 63 Neutral leaning Greed (correlated with BTC); Daily RSI ~59–64 (crypto.news 59.46 / CryptoTakeProfit 64.4, exited overbought, falling back to neutral); 4H MACD bearish crossover with expanding green bars, 1H weak bullish crossover below zero line rebound, 2490–2500 pivot resistance confirmed
Technical Structure: 2490–2500 pivot resistance / 2370–2380 liquidation zone / 2350 today’s key level
Capital & Ecosystem (relative to BTC differences)
ETF: 7-day inflow +219,080 ETH (+$521.71M), relative to BTC outflow of 3,148 BTC on 9/02 showing divergence
On-chain: Whales hold 167,855 ETH ($408M), transferred 70,739 ETH ($174M) to exchanges in two days; Coinglass 24h ETH futures liquidation $94.2M; Coinbase Premium -0.014 US market demand softening; Exchange reserves 6.28M ETH still low
Macro: Same as BTC — Warsh hawkish → 64–68% rate hike probability, 10Y yield 4.81%, US-Iran conflict Brent $94.65, Rektember seasonal effect; Tom Lee expects ETH to be most FOMO in Q4 if no rate hikes
Quality: ETH/BTC today ~0.0309 (77,370 ÷ 2,391), broke below previous defense line 0.031, relatively weaker than BTC (BTC holding above 20D EMA, ETH near 20D EMA)
Today (Thursday Asia-Europe-US session → US ADP)
Baseline: 2,350–2,446 friction, defend 2,350, grind 2,391–2,420; retrace 2,446–2,490 no break means expect pullback
Retrace follow-up: 1H close above 2,446 targets 2,490→2,530; failure to reclaim 2,446 means reduce positions on all retracements (daily MACD bearish crossover)
Pullback follow-up: 4H close below 2,350 triggers 2,370–2,375 liquidation → target 2,344→2,300 (20D EMA 2,299) → 2,252 (whale liquidation); daily close below 2,100 turns bearish
Spot/Mid-term: 2,250–2,300 (20D EMA + whale liquidation zone) hold for staggered low buys ≤5% per trade; daily close below 2,250 pause and wait for 2,122; no position reduction at 3,000
Futures: 2,446–2,490 stagnation, light short (stop loss 2,510, target 2,350) ≤2x leverage; below 2,350 no chasing shorts (CG cluster partially released + near 20D EMA), wait for 2,250–2,300 stabilization for light longs (stop loss 2,230, target 2,446)
Key Observation Windows
2,350–2,380 4H support test (today’s first key level, CG 2,370–2,375 + Keltner 2,380)
2,446 1H reclaim test (failure → 2,490 pivot resistance confirmed, short squeeze continuation)
2,300 (20D EMA 2,299) / 2,252 (whale liquidation) magnet trigger test (target after 4H break below 2,350)
2,100 daily trendline daily close support test (bull/bear boundary)
ETH ETF 9/02 +$17.91M 12 consecutive inflows, whether pace continues to slow (decides if 2,300 is bottom)
Tonight ADP + tomorrow JOLTS + Friday Nonfarm payrolls rate hike 64–68% priced in; US-Iran conflict Brent test above 95
ETH/BTC 0.0309 support at 0.030 (break means further weakness vs BTC)
⚠️ Objective market analysis, not investment advice. 2391 is cross-verified by MEXC 2392.73 + OKX 2390.98 + Kraken 2393.40 + TheBlock 2394.12, reflecting last night’s dip and retracement; daily RSI 59 neutral not oversold, 2,350 triple factor overlap (liquidation + Keltner + prior low) no shorting before, 4H close below 2,350 is true break, stop loss relaxed by 50–60% compared to usual.
Quick Summary: Last night 2485 → 2356 dip retraced to 2391; 2350–2380 liquidation zone = today’s key level (CG 2370–2375 + Keltner 2380), break targets 2300 (20D EMA) → 2252 (whale liquidation); 2490–2500 pivot resistance; 2550 200-week SMA four failures; ETF 9/02 +17.91M 12 consecutive inflows but pace sharply slowed; ETH/BTC 0.0309 broke 0.031 defense. $ETH 🔥 $BTC | SUPPLY ISN’T THE ONLY THING GETTING SCARCE
$BTC pulled back toward $77K, yet Glassnode data shows every tracked investor cohort remains a net accumulator. 👀
That’s the interesting part.
Price can cool while conviction keeps building.
With fixed supply and persistent accumulation, volatility becomes part of the journey — not the end of the thesis. ⚡
$BTC
#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds #RobinhoodChainRWAvsMemes Severe market volatility under geopolitical shocks, avoid blindly bottom-fishing or chasing rallies
Affected by the US-Iran conflict, the crypto market has suffered a fierce impact. BTC dipped sharply to 76500, ETH fell to 2395, and SOL also lost the $100 mark. Geopolitical tensions have pushed oil prices higher, with Brent crude surging to $94.65, and the 10-year US Treasury yield rising to 4.81%, hitting a new high since the end of 2023, leading to a collective sell-off of risk assets.
In the past 24 hours, liquidations in the market reached $315 million, with long positions liquidated at $251 million. BTC ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of $236 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone withdrawing $201 million, indicating institutional capital is pulling out. The market shows divergence; despite a broad decline in major coins, some altcoins have risen continuously against the trend.
The market alternates repeatedly between bulls and bears, with a large bearish candle quickly followed by a large bullish candle, repeatedly harvesting leveraged funds. Many claim the bottoming process is over and the bull market has returned upon seeing a rebound, but a true bottom would not be so turbulent. Current volatility has not yet subsided, leveraged positions have not been fully cleared, and trading volume remains high.
Do not blindly turn bullish just because of a rebound, nor be fully bearish after a sharp drop. A logical approach to observing the market is: BTC sets the overall direction, ETH reflects capital strength, and SOL gauges market sentiment. Only when all three strengthen in sync is it better to participate.
Before the market completes a thorough reshuffle, control your trading rhythm to avoid repeated losses from back-and-forth volatility.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 AVGO Trend Projection for the Past Month
This is only a scenario projection and does not constitute investment advice. The US stock market is heavily influenced by macro factors and sector sentiment in the short term, with high uncertainty.
Q3 results exceeded expectations, but Q4 guidance was slightly below optimistic forecasts. The long-term AI target was raised. After-hours trading saw an initial drop followed by a recovery of most of the losses.
Three scenarios:
1. Neutral (highest probability) Range-bound between $340‑$390
Fundamentals are solid, but the long-term AI guidance falls short of some bullish fantasies, entering a period of earnings digestion. Influenced by cloud providers' capital expenditures and US Treasury yields, volatility is high, making a one-sided trend unlikely.
2. Optimistic rebound $390‑$420
Triggers: Cloud providers' AI capital expenditures exceed expectations, semiconductor sector strengthens, new large customer orders, US Treasury yields decline. Simply meeting earnings targets is unlikely to drive a big rally; sentiment support is needed.
3. Pessimistic pullback $315‑$340
Triggers: Cloud providers reduce AI capital expenditures, US Treasury yields rise, customers' self-developed chips impact market share, semiconductor sector collectively cuts valuations. Historically, there have been significant pullbacks despite good earnings but disappointing guidance.
Key factors to monitor:
- Capital expenditures of Google and Meta; US Treasury yields; SOX semiconductor sector; market expectations gap for 2027 AI revenue.
Critical price levels:
Support: $340; Resistance: $390‑$400.
Summary: Most likely to experience range-bound digestion over the past month with high volatility. Stock price depends on whether earnings exceed market expectations rather than just earnings quality.$BTC $ETH $SOL today is not a waterfall drop, but a slow, steady cut. BTC trading volume shrank to around 12.4 billion, ETH to 6.7 billion, with no increase in turnover, indicating that the main players neither sold off nor bought in; the market is waiting for the macro shoe to drop in September. Clear strength and weakness: BTC is relatively resilient, while altcoins like XMR fell 5%, TRX 3%, SOL 3%, with high beta assets falling first; LTC, on the other hand, rose 0.2%, as funds seek liquidity-rich safe havens. The liquidation structure is quite rational—short positions liquidated over 60 million+, meaning the fake breakout and short trap in the early morning was reversed by short-sellers chasing the dip, while the 9 million long liquidation came from those who caught the falling knife at 78,000 previously. On the leverage side, perpetual contracts have not hit extreme negative funding rates; overall leverage hasn't exploded but is unhealthy. If 75,000 breaks, chained long liquidations will be ten times worse than today. Profit windows exist only in two places: one is low-level spot grid trading, the other is the right side after breaking through 80,000 and confirming the pullback. The vast majority lose by adding positions during "sideways anxiety." On the cycle, daily candles are converging, the weekly August bullish candle remains intact, the mid-term trend is not over, and short-term ups and downs depend entirely on whether the US stock night session and ETF outflows stop. Don't believe the "September must fall" mantra; trust the key levels. #21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 #BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 #SEC拟更新转让代理规则，证券上链受关注 $AVGO Broadcom's Q3 earnings report was released, falling short of market expectations and plummeting 4.5%. It then violently rebounded during the 5 PM earnings call. The main reasons are as follows.
In Q4, both the experience business and AI networking business revenue achieved triple growth, driving QAI revenue to reach $21.7 billion, a year-over-year increase of 236%.
For fiscal year 2026, full-year AI revenue grew 186% year-over-year, exceeding the previously given guidance.
The AI semiconductor revenue target for 2027 is nearly doubled, reaching $115 billion.
The AI semiconductor revenue target for 2028 is further raised to $230 billion.
In fact, looking calmly, this earnings report is actually very strong, just slightly below market expectations. The revenue growth data is not bad. The CEO this time did not conservatively say $100 billion like last time but raised the revenue target. So the market reaction was obvious, directly reversing the decline caused by the earnings missing expectations.Ethereum entered September in an interesting position. $ETH is trading around the $2.4K area after gaining roughly 30% during August, but the price has started cooling as the broader crypto market faces renewed macro pressure. At first glance, that looks like another altcoin rally losing momentum. But the bigger signal is happening underneath. Ether ETFs have continued attracting capital. CoinDesk reported that ETH ETFs had gone without net outflows since mid-August, while August alone accounteBitcoin started September with a headline that looks bearish. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $236M in net outflows on September 1, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for about $201M of the withdrawals. At first glance, that looks like institutional demand is weakening. But the bigger picture is more complicated. August was actually the strongest month of 2026 so far for Bitcoin ETFs, with approximately $3.52B in net inflows, while BTC gained around 25%. So the question isn't simply whetheETF funds surged significantly in August; whether this can continue in September is key
Throughout August, institutional enthusiasm for allocating to crypto assets did not cool down, with ETF fund demand seeing a substantial increase.
Data shows that the US BTC spot ETF had a cumulative net inflow of $3.52 billion in August, and the ETH spot ETF added $1.85 billion, with a combined inflow scale reaching $5.37 billion. A large amount of incremental capital is entering the crypto sector through compliant products.
The influx of funds also boosted market strength, with BTC rising nearly 25% in August alone, marking the best monthly performance since the end of 2024.
This data indicates that a large amount of external capital is entering the crypto market through regulated channels, and institutional participation has genuinely increased. But the market cannot only look back; the core question lies in September: can this strong momentum of capital inflow be maintained?
September faces multiple tests, with non-farm payroll data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting coming one after another. Rate hike expectations will directly influence institutional willingness to enter. If macro risks intensify, the pace of institutional fund inflows is likely to slow rapidly.
The impressive funds and market performance in August are now history; the focus going forward is to continuously track the sustainability of ETF funds. Only if fund inflows continue can the market have a foundation to keep strengthening. Once funds recede, market pressure will follow.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for one-third of the world's seaborne oil. Recently, Iran and the US clashed again in the Gulf of Oman, causing oil prices to react—Brent crude and WTI both rose about 0.6%. But strangely, the crypto market barely responded; BTC remained steady, and gold hardly moved.
This is very unusual.
Keep in mind, rising oil prices directly push up inflation expectations. When inflation expectations rise, the Fed tends to become more hawkish, putting pressure on risk assets. In the past, such geopolitical risks would at least cause BTC to jitter. This time, there was no ripple at all?
There are two possibilities: either the market thinks this is much ado about nothing and it will pass quickly; or the correlation between crypto markets and macro factors is truly declining—the drop to a 33% correlation seems real.
But I remind everyone, geopolitical risk is the hardest thing to price. If something serious happens in Hormuz, oil prices could easily spike above $100. At that point, inflation expectations would explode, and BTC could not remain unaffected.
No reaction now doesn’t mean no reaction forever. Beneath the calm surface, there may be undercurrents stirring. $BTC $ETH $SOL fell more than 3%
Solana dropped over 3% today, ranking among the top decliners in highly volatile altcoins. Market data shows that SOL briefly fell back to around $100, underperforming Bitcoin.
1. Main reasons for the decline
1. Rising risk aversion, capital withdrawal from high-risk assets
Geopolitical tensions have driven market risk aversion; oil prices rose and U.S. Treasury yields increased, reigniting concerns about the Fed's tightening policy in September; in the crypto market, high-beta assets (SOL, DOGE, etc.) typically fall more than BTC.
2. Profit-taking in altcoins
Previously, SOL had a strong rebound following the crypto market, and funds chose to cash out after the rise:
BTC's decline was relatively limited; risk assets like ETH, SOL, XRP adjusted simultaneously; indicating that funds are reducing leverage rather than a specific negative impact on the Solana ecosystem.
3. SOL's own high volatility characteristics
Solana's past upward phases relied on:
Active DeFi trading; meme coin ecosystem enthusiasm; ETF and institutional fund expectations.
But these narratives tend to see rapid capital withdrawal when market risk appetite declines.#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 🚨 $BTC | PRICE IS RECOVERING, BUT LEVERAGE ISN’T
$BTC bounced toward $79K after dipping below $77K. But derivatives tell a different story. 👀
OI fell ~3.8%, from 331.1K BTC on Aug. 21 to 318.6K on Aug. 31, while long funding increased.
That suggests the rebound isn’t being driven by aggressive leverage.
Watch the next move:
🟢 BTC ↑ + OI rises moderately → healthier positioning
🔴 BTC ↑ + OI spikes + funding surges → long-squeeze risk
The real signal is price + OI + funding.
$BTC $ETH The market of carrying money in sacks, don't miss it.
This time, I am actually more bearish.
$BTC hit a low near $76,500 today, returning to the $77,000 level. More importantly, it still can't hold above $80,000, and the rebound strength is weakening.
The macro environment is also putting pressure on risk assets.
After the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, Brent crude oil once surged above $94, and the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.81%, close to a nearly three-year high. Market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September have also clearly increased.
All these factors combined are not friendly to BTC and altcoins.
On the chart, $76,000–$77,000 is currently a critical support area. If this breaks, the next step could be a direct test of around $72,000 or even $70,000.
Also, today SOL briefly dropped back near $100, and ETH fell to around $2,400. High-volatility altcoins are clearly weaker than BTC.
So don’t get trapped by the idea of "it’s dropped so much, it should rebound."
If BTC’s rebound can’t surpass $79,000–$80,000, I will continue to focus on shorting the rebounds.
By the time everyone in the market starts shouting about a crash, it might no longer be such a good entry point.
If the bears really go all out this round, you might really need to prepare the sacks.$BTC Bitcoin Real-Time Market
Current Price: $77,370 (Coinglass 05:2x $77,370.2, 24h -1.85% range; Asian session rebounded from last night’s 76,420, fluctuating between 77.0–77.4K)
Intraday Range: $76,420–$78,424 (Last night’s dip low 76,420 → Asian session high 78,424 not reached, ArrowAlgo recorded 24h low 76,420 high 78,424)
Market Cap: ~ $1.553 trillion (20.07M × 77,370), dominance ~58.8%
Volume: 24h spot $195.13B (CMC total) / $74.729B (Coinglass heatmap), volume shrank in Asian session after last night’s liquidation surge
Sentiment: Fear & Greed 63 (Alternative 63 / Coinglass 62 / CMC 70 source variance, take 63 neutral-leaning greedy); Daily RSI ~40–42 (Baoze reference near 40, out of overbought but not extremely oversold); 4H MACD death cross with expanding green bars, 1H weak red rebound with golden cross below zero line
Technical Structure: 78.4–78.5K resistance/turn, 77.8K hourly referee, 76.4K triple test support
Funds & Macro (updated 9/3 05:24)
ETF: 9/01 net outflow -3,010.84 BTC (IBIT -2,561.44 / FBTC -556.34 / BITB +106.94, Coinglass share basis); 9/02 net outflow -3,148 BTC per BlockchainNews (~ -$241M, mainly IBIT), two consecutive days of outflow; August still +$3.5B net inflow maintaining mid-term bottom
Macro: Warsh hawkish → September rate hike probability 64–70% (ArrowAlgo 64–68% / Hanying 70%); 10Y yield 4.8102% (highest since 2023Q4); US-Iran conflict Brent 94.65 / WTI 90+, inflation shock priced in; Bessent "supply-side shock no hike" + Beige Book contradictory signals → hike not guaranteed, Citi sees no consensus for September
On-chain: Last night 76,420 triple test not broken, whales placed >50M buy orders at 75–76K; Coinglass 24h liquidation ~353M (mostly longs), leverage partially cleaned
Seasonality: Rektember September historical average -3%, but Tom Lee expects Q4 crypto FOMO (if no September hike)
Today (Thursday Asian-European session → US ADP/Job Openings) scenarios and thoughts
Baseline: 76,400–77,800 friction, defend 76,400, grind 77,370–77,800; pullback from 77,800 if not broken
Rebound follow-up: 1H close above 77,800 targets 78,400→79,300; failure to reclaim 77,800 means reducing positions on any rebound (daily MACD death cross)
Pullback follow-up: 4H close below 76,400 targets 75,571→74,788; daily close below 71,000 turns bearish
Spot/Mid-term: 74,788–75,686 (whale cost zone) hold for staggered low buys ≤5% per trade; pause and wait at 68K if daily closes below 71K
Futures: 77,800–78,400 stagnation with light shorts (stop 78,650, target 76,400) ≤2x leverage; no chasing shorts below 76,400 (triple test intact + whale orders), wait for 74,788–75,571 stabilization for light longs (stop 74,500, target 77,800)
Key Observation Windows
76,400–76,500 (20D EMA) 4H triple test hold or not (today’s first referee, close below deepens correction to 73–75K)
77,800 1H reclaim or not (failure confirms 78.4K resistance, continued short pressure)
75,571 / 74,788 long magnet trigger or not (4H break below 76.4K target)
71,000 weekly EMA200 daily close hold or not (bull-bear boundary)
ETF 9/02 final -3,148 BTC whether 9/03 rebounds (three consecutive days outflow needed to form trend)
Tonight ADP + tomorrow Job Openings + Friday Nonfarm priced for 64–70% hike; US-Iran conflict Brent break 95?
10Y 4.81% and DXY continue to suppress valuation (bonds are this week’s true regime signal)
⚠️ Objective market summary, not investment advice. 77370 is Coinglass 052x $77370.2 + ArrowAlgo 77227.97 + Feixiaohao 77256.7 cross-verified, representing last night’s dip rebound; daily RSI 40 neutral not oversold, no short chasing before 76,400 triple test broken, 4H close below 76,400 counts as true break, stop loss relaxed 50–60% wider than usual.
Quick overview: Last night 79231→76420 triple test 76.4K rebound 77370; 76.4K (20D EMA) triple test referee, 77.8K hourly resistance, 78.4–78.5K resistance/turn; 74.8K strong support; 71K weekly EMA200 bull-bear boundary; ETF 9/02 -3148 BTC two-day outflow; hike 64–70% + 10Y 4.81% drivers. $BTC $BTC $ETH Expectations are high on the eve of the non-farm payrolls, with macro pricing replacing narratives
Before Friday's non-farm payrolls release, the market has already pushed the probability of a September rate hike up to 66%. If this number continues to climb before the data is released, it means your positions are being revalued based on macro expectations rather than crypto fundamentals. Many are still focused on on-chain data or ETF inflows, but short-term price volatility is now dominated by interest rate games.
In my personal view, current expectations have outpaced reality; whether bullish or bearish, betting on direction is like guessing. If the non-farm data exceeds expectations and strengthens, the rate hike probability will rise again, and BTC may see another drop; if the data unexpectedly weakens, expectations will instantly reverse, and the rebound could be strong. But since guessing is uncertain, there's no need to guess.
The truly cost-effective strategy is to wait for confirmation signals after the data is released, rather than taking sides prematurely. Two reference points:
First, if BTC rebounds to the 78,800-79,200 range before the non-farm release and faces resistance, you can lightly short with a stop loss above 79,600, playing the squeeze of expectations before the data;
Second, if after the data release the negative impact is fully priced in and the price quickly dips near 75,000 and stabilizes, you can gradually go long with a stop loss at 74,200, playing the recovery rally from the reversal of expectations.
In summary, macro > narrative right now. Be patient and wait for the data to land before acting. This is far wiser than betting on direction. Control your position size, save your bullets, and follow up when the direction is clear. Missing out on a few dozen points is not a problem. #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验