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$SNDK SanDisk's performance is flawless: but it continues to plunge! How should we view and handle this now?
Just finished reviewing SanDisk's Q4 earnings, the numbers are unbelievably good: revenue hit 8.97 billion, far exceeding the expected 8.39 billion; earnings per share at $39.25 also beat the expected $34.4.
Gross margin soared directly to 84.6%, up more than 6 points from an already impressive 78.4%. Data center revenue reached 2.97 billion, surpassing expectations with 437% growth, and the QLC Stargate product is indeed starting to contribute revenue.
Logically, with such explosive data, the stock should have surged violently after hours.
What happened? It plunged after hours!
Not because of poor performance, but because the market wants the 2027 script, not the 2026 accolades. The Q1 revenue guidance is 10.3-10.8 billion, midpoint 10.55 billion, while the market expected 10.8 billion. That 250 million shortfall is just a breath away.
In short, the market logic now is: good performance is expected, good guidance is the real positive. Guidance not hitting the ceiling means failure.
So what now?
Long strategy: Wait for sentiment to settle. If pre-market can stabilize around 1340-1350, which is the support level of this rebound, consider light buying. Set stop loss below 1300, take profit at 1450-1480. The long-term logic of this stock is intact; AI storage shortages will last at least until mid-2027, and institutional average target price remains above 2400.
Short strategy: If the opening rebound can't break through 1430-1450, the high point of this rebound, consider shorting. Set stop loss at 1480, take profit at 1340. If it breaks 1300, increase position targeting 1244.
The performance is undeniably strong, but the best buying points are always after panic selling ends, not chasing in the numbness of "meeting expectations."
#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound Market judgments on key positions tend to be concentrated, with heavy short liquidity gathering in the $64,800 to $68,200 range, while dense long liquidity appears between $60,000 and $62,900. The market is currently caught between two sides, and before the trend begins, it may experience a liquidity sweep, and it is possible that BTC will pull back to around $61,300 after clearing liquidity from above. The biggest contradiction in Bitcoin right now is the lack of clear incremental demand. If ETFs continue to see net inflows, Coinbase premiums turn positive, or volatility expands upward, the market is likely to confirm a recovery in demand; Conversely, if the short-term holders' cost base is broken, the current low volatility could turn into selling pressure, and tonight's U.S. nonfarm payroll data will be a key catalyst influencing market direction. $BTC #新手必看: Everything you need is heresome quick shower thoughts:
1) we are in a monetary policy environment where the cannon is pointed at an AI powered super cycle
this is good and productivity is meaningfully outpacing inflation in the US --> intelligence as a utility is having direct downstream impacts on material science and bio making sci-fi worlds possible
2) this doesn't mean it will translate to financial markets in expected ways -- markets are a finnicky game and megachurch/underclass dynamics matter more than fundamentals & can reflexively halt fundamentals continuing (even if monetary policy environment is net good for society to fuel an AI powered super cycle)
3) when US fundamental productivity growth is halted due to bad reflexivity, it gives another entity with currency the ability to direct monetary policy to develop positive fundamental productivity growth that outpaces the US
this could be/likely will be China
this could be Ethereum or Solana or Zcash if their monetary policy cannon is pointed at productivity increasing projects
unironically most bullish Zcash's dev fund / voting structure here
curious on y'alls thoughts @colludingnode @zkDragonI'm Ci Ge. SpaceX rebounded after the lock-up, and this is worth examining. On August 6, about 911.5 million restricted shares entered the sellable window, and the stock price not only didn't fall but rose 6%, indicating that the negative news from the unlocking is being digested by the market.
Let's look at the financial report numbers first. SpaceX's first quarterly report after going public reported revenue of about $7.8 billion, up about 90% year-on-year, with a net loss of $541 million, below market expectations. AI-related capital expenditure rose significantly, and the logic behind the stock price pressure after the earnings report was that the market was worried about burning cash. On the day the market was unlocked, the stock price rebounded, with funds entering the market to take on the market rather than dumping shares to sell.
What is the key reason for the rebound? Unlocking doesn't mean selling everything; founders' shares are locked in until 2027, so early investors and employees aren't as eager to reduce their holdings as the market imagines. The current stock price is far below the $135 IPO price, so not many people are willing to cut losses at this level. SpaceX's valuation narrative has shifted from just financial reports to a more long-term potential for AI aerospace infrastructure. The capital market is iterating on SpaceX's valuation logic; the earnings report is just a test paper, and if it was held on the day of the lock-up, it shows the market is repricing, not just scoring by quarterly figures.
What is the nature of this rebound? Since its listing, SpaceX has been undervalued, with its IPO priced at $135, secondary market trading fluctuating between 100 and 110, and the market never giving a clear premium. The rebound on the day of the unlocking shows that selling pressure has been caught and buying is entering the market. Expectations for the Terafab AI chip gigafactory project are fermenting, with the market pricing forward value rather than current quarterly profit and loss. But the unlocking is not a one-time event; there will be phased unlocking windows, and how much the market can sustain the unlocking pressure remains to be seen.
Transmission to the crypto market. SpaceX's rebound, like Palantir's better-than-expected earnings, both reinforce a signal: the market is willing to pay for the narrative of "high capital spending for future growth," rather than just paying premiums to stocks with good quarterly numbers but weak guidance. This sharply contrasts with SanDisk's 11% plunge after its earnings report, where its performance was explosive but guidance was below expectations, so it fell. SpaceX posted losses but rose on the day of the lock-up rebound, because the market saw long-term potential. The short-term pressure on the storage sector is due to insufficient guidance, not the disappearance of AI storage demand. SpaceX and Tesla launched the Terafab project in Texas, Musk is building its own chip production capacity, and the logic that high-end computing power remains in short supply has not been broken.
SpaceX's rebound shows that the market is shifting from looking at the past to looking at the future. The current quarterly figures are just the entry ticket; guidance and capital expenditure efficiency are the pricing anchors. The lesson for the storage sector is that long-term demand remains solid, but it will take the next more definite guidance to reignite buying willingness. Before that, the short-term trend in the storage sector will mainly focus on digesting expectations, with short positions continuing to be held, waiting for sentiment to fully clear.
That's all for Ci Ge. Take a closer look. #财报观察员: After the rebound was lifted, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? Let's talk about FIL.
I've been following this coin for a long time, and it's one of the coins I find most likely to cause the confusion of "the project is good, so why is the coin price just not performing?"
If you only look at the narrative, FIL has actually never been bad.
Decentralized storage, data infrastructure, DePIN, AI data, plus FVM, almost every once in a while there's a new story the market is willing to tell.
But now when I look at FIL, I no longer focus on these stories first.
I'm more concerned about a very practical question: whether the development of the Filecoin network can ultimately sustain transmission to FIL itself.
This is also where my attitude towards FIL has changed the most.
I used to think that as long as storage demand rises and the ecosystem grows, FIL would sooner or later be re-priced by the market.
Now I don't judge that so simply.
Because having project demand and token value capture are two different things.
FIL also has one issue that has always bothered me, which is the supply side.
Many long-term holders probably feel the same: the project has been continuously building, the ecosystem hasn't disappeared, but the coin price has long endured significant selling pressure.
So now when someone asks me if FIL "has fallen so much, isn't it time to bottom out?" I basically don't answer with the extent of the drop.
Something that has dropped 90% can still fall another 50% from the remaining 10%.
The market never reverses a coin just because it "has already fallen a lot."
Now I judge FIL by only three things.
First, can real storage demand continue to grow, and not just data generated by subsidies.
Second, can FVM truly grow applications with users and revenue, not just good-looking TVL and project counts.
Third, and most importantly, can network growth improve FIL's long-term supply and demand balance.
If these three questions start to be answered positively at the same time, I will raise my expectations for FIL again.
If not, I'd rather keep observing.
I still recognize decentralized storage as a long-term demand, and I don't deny Filecoin just because of FIL's price performance over these years.
But recognizing the project doesn't mean you have to hold it at any price or any stage.
This is something I increasingly insist on in Crypto now.
Don't fall in love with your holdings.
When the project changes, the logic changes accordingly.
If the logic isn't fulfilled, just keep waiting.
The ones truly worth holding long-term are never the coins that "have fallen enough," but assets whose fundamentals keep improving and whose tokens can truly capture that growth.
FIL, I will continue to follow.
But before seeing clearer supply and demand improvements, I won't be easily optimistic just because it's cheap.
Study trends, seek certainty.
Reject emotions, respect logic.
— Zero Chain Leader
⚠️ The above only represents personal research and opinions, and does not constitute any investment advice. FIL is a highly volatile crypto asset; please make independent judgments and manage your positions and risks accordingly.
#FIL #Filecoin
#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键 #存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ In the world of snipers, the side with the most movement often becomes the target of the thermal infrared probe.
After forty-two hours of lying in a damp, cold hiding bunker, the anemometer needle in the crosshair finally stopped at the most dangerous mark—a $20 billion valuation. This was not the normal body temperature of the prey; it was an overload alarm suddenly rising on the thermal infrared imager.
Polymarket has secretly fired the sound of $1 billion reloading, with valuations soaring from last year's bleak low to over $20 billion. Kalshi, on the neighboring high ground, had already set up a heavy sniper post with a $22 billion valuation. The entire prediction market is suffocatingly smoky, with Robinhood and Coinbase, two veteran watchtowers, tightly targeting this area, trying to turn forecasting mechanisms into high-explosive missiles that break through the traditional financial and crypto territorial barriers.
But in the sniper scope's focus, the noisier the position, the more deadly winds hide it. The shadow of insider trading hovers above the position, law enforcement patrol radars are ready to launch high-pressure downgrading strikes at any moment, and the ethical controversy over gambling attributes is more like unstable mines scattered around bunkers. This isn't easy shooting at the shooting range; it's a high-risk firefight zone involving multiple factions. A novice who hasn't experienced wind speed calculation or ballistic calibration, charging out of the defense zone with only passion, will turn the second hand into a slippery pile of chips and turn into discarded copper bullets.
Shifting focus, you cut into the heat signal fluctuations of the $XLITE of US stock tokens. Its price curve, at the center of the scope, is like a bolt at an absolute critical point, ready to fire at any moment. Cross-market capital flows in milliseconds, with a faint but deadly resonance coming from the butt. The shooter's heart rate is forcibly suppressed to 45 beats per minute, and the right index finger merely touches the edge of the trigger guard—before a final, corrected, price-to-profit trajectory over 1:5 appears, all valuation spikes and capital uproar are nothing but smokescreens lured by the enemy.
The crosswind outside the cover suddenly intensified, the compliance radar was about to sweep the entire area, the bullet was unchambered, and the dive continued.$SPCX went crazy short squeeze last night! Soared 16%! And with volume!
I stopped shorting below 110 and reversed to place a long order, predicting such a short squeeze would happen, but the long order didn't fill. From the market perspective, this rebound won't end so quickly; the 135 issuance price will definitely be broken, the 150 opening price might be touched, and the 175 extra unlocking condition price (already invalid) is probably hard to reach. I think 135 for $SPCX is already too expensive.
I hope it pulls up more this wave so I can short again. I've made over $100,000 on $SPCX, thanks to Musk, but lost 50,000 in storage. Storage seems to be oscillating and unloading; the main force hasn't pushed the price beyond key levels nor dropped below them. But as time passes, it's unfavorable for cyclical stocks. I've already opened a short position, with floating profits and losses jumping back and forth $SNDK $MU #SepHikeOddsFallHawks #AIMemoryBullContinues #SpaceXUnlockRebound (1) SK Hynix (000660.KS) Current Market Performance—Intense Volatility: On August 8, SK Hynix's performance was extremely volatile. The Korea Composite Index plunged nearly 4% at the start of trading, but then rebounded. SK Hynix experienced sharp intraday volatility—some data showed SK Hynix's stock price had dropped by 18%, closing at 1,269,000 KRW; but at the same time, some data showed SK Hynix had risen nearly 4%. Such massive intraday volatility reflects the market's extreme divergence over the storage sector. Driving Factors: Weakness in US US storage continues. Overnight, US US storage sectors fell broadly—SanDisk, Western Digital, and SK Hynix ADRs all fell over 3%, directly dragging down the Korean market. Foreign capital and institutions are locked in competition. Foreign capital continues to flow out of the Korean stock market, but the Korea Composite Index rebounded from nearly 4% to a gain, indicating capital is buying at low levels. High beta characteristics amplify volatility. SK Hynix's revenue is entirely concentrated in DRAM and NAND flash memory, and its sensitivity to semiconductor industry prosperity is much higher than that of the diversified Samsung Electronics, resulting in significantly amplified intraday volatility. Summary: SK Hynix experienced a dramatic fluctuation of "plunge → rebound" on August 8. Deterioration in sentiment in the storage sector remains the core suppressive factor, but the Korea Composite Index's turnaround from nearly 4% decline to an upward trend shows some buying momentum on dips. The short-term trend depends on whether the US storage sector can stabilize and changes in foreign capital flows. Under extreme volatility, market divergence is huge. (2) Samsung Electronics (005930. KS) Current Market: Samsung Electronics' performance on August 8 was relatively stable Korea.Nonfarm payrolls were so bad, yet the US stock market rose? Don't rush to call a bull market back
I just reviewed today's market, and honestly, my mind is a bit tangled.
The moment the nonfarm data came out, it was -23,000, while the expectation was +83,000. This is not just "below expectations," this is a direct crash. Logically, with employment collapsing like this, the market should panic. But look at the market—it went up.
The reason is simple: the data is so bad that the Fed dares not move, and some have even started fantasizing about rate cuts.
But this is what makes me feel something is off—the market did rise, but it rose too steadily. Like a deliberately controlled steady pace, with no panic from shorts getting crushed. It feels more like someone is heavily supporting it, not letting it fall, but also not wanting to push it up too fast for now.
This reminds me of the saying I often mention: don’t expect a strong reversal after a strong breakout, but also don’t expect the same strength to continue for a while.
Right now, the S&P is hovering in a tiny range between 770-772, and QQQ between 720-725. I’ve marked these two ranges as my "warning lines." If it doesn’t break below the lower boundary, I consider it a strong consolidation; if one day a solid bullish candle breaks above the upper boundary, don’t hesitate—ride the rally. Conversely, if it softly leaks down, just wait patiently and don’t try to catch a falling knife.
Sector-wise, I’ve recently been focusing only on the semiconductor line.
NVDA, MU, MRVL, LITE, COHR, ASML, ARM—these I put in a watchlist. Not randomly chosen; their charts are all signaling: accumulation. Especially the two optical module stocks, LITE and COHR, moving like bulldozers, rising a little every day—this kind of steady rise is actually more reassuring than big bullish candles.
But here’s a cold splash of water.
Since I judge this as a "low volatility rise," implied volatility is very likely to go down. What does that mean? #SepHikeOddsFallHawks #AIMemoryBullContinues #SpaceXUnlockRebound A data check on tonight's nonfarm payrolls: employment unexpectedly decreased, but the unemployment rate fell instead of rising, and the labor force participation rate also declined — this is not simply a matter of strength or weakness, but both numerator and denominator shrinking together. The White House also acknowledged that government employees and World Cup hiring declines were the main drags; excluding these, the increase was about 100,000. In plain language: the labor market is cooling down, but it's the "supply" that's dropping, not a collapse in demand. The implication for the rate hike path — urgency decreases, but the decision power returns to inflation data. Data won't play games with you, so don't just focus on that negative headline. $BTC Here's a painful observation that those in the know will understand. This round of the US stock market has AI, SpaceX, and a wave of new narratives like optical communication pouring in money one after another. Gold has de-dollarization and safe-haven appeal. But crypto—count for yourself—what truly exciting new stories have there been recently? The ETF benefits have been fully realized, Layer 2's potential has peaked, and meme coin rotations are just a zero-sum game. It's not that crypto can't rise; it's just temporarily lacking a big narrative that can attract incremental off-exchange capital. $BTC is stuck here essentially waiting for the next story. Instead of guessing the price, focus on who can first tell the new narrative convincingly. What do you think the next big crypto narrative will be? #SepHikeOddsFallHawks #AIMemoryBullContinues #SpaceXUnlockRebound Tonight, this non-farm payroll bullish candlestick looks great, but don't get carried away.
Simply put, this is a typical case of "short squeeze + emotional recovery"—it's not real money coming in. New funds from on-chain and ETF sides didn't keep up, the short market was exposed and then shut down, and the underlying liquidity gap still exists—the billions of yuan outflows from ETFs in June haven't healed yet.
So I don't plan to move my $BTC short position for now, let alone stop loss.
A single bullish candlestick can't change faith; a reversal depends on CPI coordination and whether ETFs can maintain net inflows for several consecutive days. Before these signals appear, just treat it as a rebound.
The market loves to perform, let it perform, and I'm waiting. 🎬 Let's add a capital perspective to this round of divergence. The US stock market's S&P closed at a new all-time high last night, and the Nasdaq rose 1.3%, clearly showing high risk appetite; meanwhile, $BTC and $ETH were stuck trading flat near the bottom. The difference lies in the money inflow: US stocks are supported by pensions, corporate buybacks, and stable daily net purchases from passive indexes; crypto spot ETFs have seen weak inflows in recent weeks, lacking the incremental capital engine. So don't simply say 'high risk appetite = crypto should rise' — you have to see if this appetite has a dedicated capital channel flowing into crypto. Without that channel, no matter how hot the sentiment is, it's just watching from the sidelines. When do you think incremental capital will return to crypto? After a conversation with @jdetychey I have a better understanding of his position. I’d like to write it down to make sure I got it right.
Having a high percentage of $ETH staked introduces a number of problems and acts as a centralizing force.
Specifically, if staked $ETH crosses some threshold, say 50%, then it creates a strong incentive for the remaining 50% to stake to avoid dilution. At that point staking yield becomes nominal for all. It’s reasonable to expect that stakers will prefer the largest and most liquid staking options and so will opt for the largest LST or largest centralized staking entities.
Solo stakers are harmed in this scenario because they are, in most countries, paying taxes on nominal ETH yield and so their ROI becomes negative. This pushes them out of the market further centralizing the chain.
LSTs that accumulate a large percentage of $ETH staked introduce tail risk because they become too big to fail. In the case of a major compromise the chain may be forced to fork.
This brings us to the other risk which is that in the case of very high percent of ETH staked the social layer (i.e. holders of non staked ETH) are not large enough in number to prevent bad actors from causing harm. For example of a large centralized staking entity decides to censor or fork the chain (e.g. Coinbase in the of some dispute over USDC.)
Is that correct? Anything I got wrong @jdetychey?
To be clear, I don’t agree with all of this, but I think all these are totally reasonable points and have merit.Guys, RE rose 5.6% today to $0.40149, with the key support at 0.40 being repeatedly tested.
This bullish candle signals the market is searching for a new balance near 0.40 after a 35% pullback above 0.67. The rebound is not large, but it appears near a key support level and is worth watching.
Market reconstruction: The tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the 0.40 area
This round of RE pullback occurred after a rapid rally, essentially a clearing of profit-taking. Looking at the market, trading volume continued to shrink during the decline, and active selling pressure was decreasing. The price happened to return to the previous rally zone—this is an important cluster of chips, and inertia downward often encounters buying support here.
The structure of derivatives has given a clearer signal. Currently, retail investors are heavily shorting, but major players are leaning toward the bullish position—this "retail investors chase shorts, main players take over" structure often leads to reverse short squeezes in historical markets.
In terms of capital structure, open interest has not experienced panic withdrawals, funding rates remain stable, and the market has not seen extreme risk releases, leaving room for subsequent rebounds. However, it should be noted that if 0.40 is effectively broken, the lower level will further open up, which is a defensive line that bulls must hold.
Fundamentals: RWA Reinsurance's unique narrative
The core logic of RE is to connect on-chain stablecoin capital to the global reinsurance market of about $700 billion. The protocol TVL is about $465 million, with over 40 insurance partners.
It should be clarified: RE is a pure governance token and does not have profit-sharing rights. The protocol-generated premium revenue flows to reUSD/reUSDe holders; RE holders do not receive dividends. The pricing at 0.40 is more about the future of decentralized governance than the current real returns.
Key price points
Short-term resistance: $0.415-$0.436 is the first rebound hurdle; a breakout will allow for continuation
Medium-term resistance: $0.495-$0.55 if the next target range for repair
Current support: $0.40 bullish psychological defense
Strong support: A break below $0.385 would damage the structure
Ultimate support: $0.348 is the long stop zone
Some analysts have given long signals at 0.378-0.382, targeting 0.410-0.475, with a stop loss at 0.348.
RE is engaged in a key bull-short battle at 0.40. The reinsurance narrative is backed by real business, but the pricing logic of governance tokens means value needs time to be validated.
0.40 is the most important level to watch in the near term: if it holds, the bottom structure still holds hope, and a high volume above 0.436 will open up room for a recovery toward 0.50; if it breaks below a valid level, 0.385 will be the next observation zone. Before the direction is clear, waiting for signal confirmation is more reliable than guessing the bottom.
$BTC $ETH $RE
#非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in rate hikes
#CLARITY投票或延至9月, ethical differences remain unresolved
#存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable? If the US-Iran reconciliation and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz come true
Impact research report on the crypto circle and US stocks!
Transmission chain:
Strait smooth → geopolitical risk premium on crude oil dissipates, oil prices decline → inflation pressure eases → market rate cut expectations rise → favorable for global risk assets.
I. US Stocks
1. Positive impact: Nasdaq, AI tech growth stocks (NVIDIA, etc.). Lower oil prices reduce inflation, so the Federal Reserve does not need to maintain high interest rates, relieving valuation pressure on high-growth stocks.
2. Beneficiary sectors: aviation, logistics, chemicals; energy sector negative, falling oil prices will suppress oil stocks.
3. Risks: only short-term sentiment-driven; if it is just a temporary 60-day agreement, the positive effect is easily "realized and sold off," and the market may decline after the news.
II. Crypto Circle
Bitcoin is currently a risk asset, following the general trend of US tech stocks.
Positive logic:
1. Falling oil prices reduce inflation, market trades rate cut expectations, liquidity expectations improve, favorable for $BTC ;
2. Geopolitical panic subsides, safe-haven funds flow out of gold, some funds flow into risk assets. Comparing the storage sector across markets is more interesting than just looking at a single candlestick: On the US stock side, SanDisk and SK Hynix have both fallen for the second day, and $DRAM spot prices are also declining; however, the A-share storage chain is moving in the opposite direction, with companies like Montage Technology rising against the trend. The same industry chain, two markets, two different sentiments—this indicates that the current decline is more like a position squeeze on the US stock side rather than a demand-side falsification. If the fundamentals had truly shifted, the A-shares would not be independently strengthening. To judge whether storage has peaked, one should look at $DRAM contract prices and manufacturer guidance, not the daily drop in US stocks. Explaining what this means is more important than simply restating what happened.Is it about to start falling again?
The CLARITY Act has been delayed until September 14 to reconvene!
Just good news, and now it's about to start a downward trend again? Last time, it was delayed, and $BTC crashed directly
It's not a one-time delay that broke through, but several delays + 85% zero rate cuts + August weak season conspiracy.
Does everyone think there's a chance for over 40,000 $BTC?
But CLARITY latency itself can't be delivered, at most over 50,000 pins. Really see over 40,000 yuan with zero interest rate cuts + tariff upgrades + black swan strikes all at once. It's too hard
Every time CLARITY is delayed, $BTC drops, but it's always a bottoming pullback, not a crash.
Let's see how much it can fall this time! #非农意外转负, CPI becomes the key to rate hikes #CLARITY投票或延至9月. Ethical disagreements remain unresolved Guys, last night's non-farm payroll data came out, and the entire market's pricing logic was overturned and restarted. According to data from the U.S. Department of Labor, nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, while the market expected an increase of 80,000. One positive and one negative, a difference of 100,000 people. But what's even more frustrating is the fragmentation of the data itself. The private sector actually added 30,000 new jobs, but government departments cut 53,000 at once, dragging the total into negative territory. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%. On the surface, it seems to be an improvement, but in reality, it's because the labor force participation rate dropped to 61.4%, the lowest since February 2021—a large number of workers are leaving the labor market, not because they've found jobs, but because they're not looking for jobs anymore. The combined May and June figures were revised down by 103,000; the "strong" employment growth at the beginning of the year turned out to be a statistical illusion. The probability of a rate hike has plunged sharply. Before the data was released, CME showed a 55% probability of a rate hike in September, but dropped to 44% after the release. The interest rate swap market has gone from nearly 60% to around 40%. U.S. Treasury yields plunged—the two-year yield fell as much as 9 basis points to 4.15%. The US dollar index weakened rapidly, gold surged sharply, and spot gold surged above $4,360, up nearly 3% in a single day. But Lao Mo wants to remind you of one thing: market expectations are never inferred linearly. Poor nonfarm payroll data does not mean there will definitely be no rate hikes in September. Currently, CME's 44% is just a snapshot of the moment; the real shift is in the CPI on Wednesday, August 12. The market expects July CPI to be 3.4% year-on-year, with core CPI 2.5% year-on-year.#非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in rate hikes
In July, the nonfarm payroll recorded a loss of 23,000, with an expected increase of 80,000. The combined May and June employment data was revised down by 103,000, showing a clear cooling in employment. After the news was released, expectations for a rate hike in September quickly declined, and risk assets saw a boost in sentiment.
However, the report has a contradiction: the unemployment rate has slightly declined, making it difficult for the Fed to set the tone solely on employment. Market consensus has shifted, and the upcoming CPI inflation data will be the core factor influencing monetary policy.
Risk Warning: Short-term positive news is a game of expectations. If inflation remains stubborn, policy attitudes will tighten again. Market volatility will intensify; do not bet one-sidedly.
Monitor subsequent CPI performance to verify whether liquidity expectations can be sustained.
This article is only a personal review record and does not constitute investment advice. Virtual currencies are highly volatile; please make independent decisions and participate with caution. Who would believe SpaceX isn't just luring the price up?
· "Unlock the rise, then keep pushing the market": On August 6, about 911.5 million shares (42.6% of total share capital) were unlocked, but SPCX closed up 6.14% that day. Trading volume surged to $700 million in the two days before the unlock, indicating there was indeed capital speculating.
· "Short positions": When the price dropped to a low of $105, seven whale addresses decisively opened long orders worth $27.38 million, averaging about $112. This precise bottom-fishing really resembles a massive short squeeze.
· "Let the bulls take over": Before the unlock, the price surged to $130, technically similar to "luring the bulls." A large number of profit-taking and unlocked chips chose to cash out here.
⚠️ The biggest risk right now: high-leverage whales
Currently, there is a whale with 20x leverage in the market, costing $127 and liquidating only $113. This means:
· Once it falls below $113, whales may be forced to close their positions, triggering an instant price crash.
· "Market makers" also fear liquidation. This operation feels more like "self-rescue" than just a rally, because failure has serious consequences.
💎 Operational advice
1. Don't chase highs: Selling pressure above $130 is extremely heavy; chasing in can easily make you a "buyer."
2. Beware of "false breakouts": A push to 130 may be a cover for selling or to pull the price away from the whale's liquidation line.
3. Strictly observe discipline: High leverage here carries significant risk, so if you hold multiple trades, be sure to set stop-losses.
$SPCX
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? In the past 30 days, the two major Korean exchanges have been aggressively listing coins, completely unlike a bear market rhythm
Upbit listed 16 new coins
Bithumb listed 14 new coins
Binance listed 1 new coin, plus 100+ tokenized US stocks
OKX listed 3 new coins, plus dozens of tokenized US stocks
South Korea does not have strict personal foreign exchange limits; citizens can freely invest in US stocks without going through exchanges. The different directions of Chinese and Korean exchanges have become very clear
#Upbit listing list: OPG), DRV, O, Morpho, EUL, GEOD, RLUSD, META2, USDG, CFX, HOME, QUID, GRVT, CAP, KMNO, BSB
#Bithumb listing list: ICNT, DRV, CHECK, BANK, GEOD, O, RLUSD, AEON, GRVT, META2, USDG, QUID, UB, BSB
#Binance listing: AERO
#OKX listing: $SLX , $AEON , $GRVT #非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键
美国7月非农意外减少2.3万人，远低于预期的新增8万人，5、6月数据还被合计下修10.3万人。就业降温已经不是单月噪音，市场随即下调9月加息预期。
对金融市场来说，短期最直接的利好是流动性预期改善：美债收益率和美元压力下降，AI科技股、黄金、BTC等风险资产获得喘息。但现在还不能提前开香槟，原油和通胀才是最大的变量。
接下来真正的决战是CPI：如果通胀继续降温，“就业弱+通胀弱”会进一步封住美联储加息空间；如果油价重新把CPI顶起来，就会变成最麻烦的“就业弱+通胀强”。
非农已经把球传给CPI，下一份通胀数据才是真正决定全球流动性方向的一脚射门。$BICO 我看还有很多空头，喜欢用很多数据来佐证，而山寨的秘密就是空头不死拉伸不止，不把你下跌做多的行为惯性培养出来，拉升就不会停止，这个过程可能漫长到让人发指，rave 第一波就是这么出来的，第二波冲到热门榜的时候就很快掉下去了，为什么？因为大家一看到它就想到轧空，百倍币，而山寨最大的问题不是拉升的问题，而是没人接盘，既然一上来就有人愿意接，我为什么还要拉，反正我币价成本几乎为零，一分我也卖Postponed again!
The CLARITY Act was not put to a vote on August 7 and was delayed until September 14 to reconvene.
Last delay: $BTC dropped from 97,000 to 64,000
It's not a one-time delay that broke through, but several delays + 85% zero rate cuts + August weak season conspiracy.
Does everyone think I have a chance with over 40,000 $BTC?
But CLARITY latency itself can't be delivered, at most over 50,000 pins. Really see over 40,000 yuan with zero interest rate cuts + tariff upgrades + black swan strikes all at once. It's too hard
Every time CLARITY is delayed, $BTC drops, but it's always a bottoming pullback, not a crash.
Let's see how much it can fall this time! #非农意外转负, CPI becomes the key to rate hikes #CLARITY投票或延至9月. Ethical disagreements remain unresolved Narratives are something to watch as they unfold. $SPACE US stock surged 15.8% last night—the heat from the primary market is increasingly spilling over into the secondary market. Right after institutions disclosed their holdings, the stock price surged with volume; the pricing power of pre-IPO assets is gradually shifting from a few institutions to the public market. Behind this is a whole narrative forming around 'securitizing unlisted giants': targets like $SPACE and OpenAI, which are usually inaccessible, are being packaged through various structures and offered to retail investors. Opportunities and bubbles are often two sides of the same coin, so protect your ammunition. Would you engage with this kind of pre-IPO concept? #非农意外转负, CPI becomes key to rate hikes. US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far below the market expectation of about 80,000; May and June employment data were also revised down by a combined 103,000, indicating a deeper-than-expected labor market cooldown. However, the unemployment rate actually dropped to 4.1%, mainly due to a decline in labor force participation, indicating that the labor market is not weakening in one direction. After the nonfarm payroll release, the market quickly lowered its September rate hike forecast: CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point hike in September dropped to about 44%, while Kalshi showed the probability of keeping rates unchanged next month to about 65%. However, the differences have not disappeared; Fed officials and some institutions still believe that sticky inflation is a core risk, and if CPI strengthens again next week, rate hike expectations may rebound. For the crypto market, the main trading theme has shifted from "whether employment can beat inflation" to "whether CPI will rewrite September policy pricing after the nonfarm reset."Recent U.S. stock trading insights: Correcting human weaknesses is the key to stable profits
Recently, in the US stock storage, aerospace, and semiconductor sectors, the market has been extremely polarized, with sharp rises and falls, and rapid switching between bulls and bears. Looking back at all my recent trades, the biggest insight isn't that I can't understand the market, but that I can understand but can't hold on, can't hold on, or can't control my hands. Technology and news aren't hard; what's hard is overcoming your own human nature.
The market has been extremely extreme lately, with two popular sectors moving in completely opposite directions.
Storage Sector (SanDisk, SK Hynix)
Explosive performance, doubled profits, and billion-yuan buybacks were implemented—fundamentals are flawless.
But the market always buys expectations and sells facts. If the previous gains were too large, all the positive news would be overloaded early, and the financial reports landing would be the main selling point.
Despite being a super positive development, the market has experienced a sharp decline and correction.
Aerospace and Rocket Sector:
Early on, the pressure to unlock was high, with heavy cash burn and a strong bearish sentiment in the market, so no one dared to touch it.
As a result, all negative factors materialized, panic speculation was wiped out, and combined with military orders and AI cooperation, the market bucked the trend and strengthened, forming an independent upward trend.
In short: positive news doesn't necessarily mean prices will rise, and negative news won't necessarily fall. Sentiment always outweighs technical skills, and expectations always outweigh facts!
#非农意外转负, CPI becomes key to rate hikes #财报观察员: Rebound after lifting restrictions—what is SpaceX's outlook going forward? #存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market stable? $SNDK $SPCX $BICO $BTC This mining company increased its BTC position against the trend, while peers continued to sell off
BitcoinTreasuries.NET data, listed mining company CleanSpark slightly increased holdings by 7 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 13,931 BTC, ranking 11th among global corporate BTC holdings.
Although the amount of increased holdings this time is not large, it shows that this mining company insists on a treasury strategy of hoarding coins. Compared to recent transfers of BTC to NYDIG for cash by MARA and Riot, there is a clear internal divergence among mining companies: some sell on rebounds to cover costs, while others choose to continue holding up and hold coins.
On the macro side, nonfarm payrolls have been unexpectedly unexpected, with rising rate cut expectations providing a bottoming out for the market, and institutions like Morgan Stanley are also buying on dips. However, on the other hand, hacker phishing addresses continue to fluctuate, and potential selling pressure cannot be ignored.
The divided attitudes among mining companies indicate that the market has not formed a unified bullish consensus. Institutions and some mining companies are accumulating shares, but selling pressure is still real. In the short term, the market remains range-bound and fluctuating; don't blindly rush in just because mining companies increase their positions.
Do you think more mining companies will choose to hoard coins in the future? Uniswap has launched a meme coin launch platform on Robinhood Chain called pools.trade.
The first token to be launched was $FRONG, a frog. Even funnier, this token was minted six days before Uniswap publicly released the countdown video.
What was Hayden Adams' response? "wait whats this about？" —Pretending not to know.
Then the platform went live 4.5 hours behind the countdown, and some parts of the page were still empty.
Reflect on this series of operations. Uniswap, one of the most serious DeFi infrastructures, once claimed to "replace traditional exchanges." Now, on a chain specializing in tokenized stocks, a Meme casino has been opened, and the first coin was pre-created by insiders.
The idealistic era of DeFi is completely over. The surviving projects are all trying to make money, and the fastest way to make money is through Memes.A Brief Analysis of BTC Short-Term Trends from Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationships, Order Flow, and Price Behavior (Part 2)
$BTC #星球日报
3. Elliott Wave Theory
Based on the 1-hour wave structure, the movement since the July 21 high of 66,914 has been reanalyzed:
Wave A decline (completed):
Wave A: 66,914 → 62,210 (August 3), a decrease of -4,704 (about -7.03%), a strong decline but failed to set a new low (above the July 8 low of 61,470).
Wave B rebound (in progress):
B-a wave: 62,210 → 64,955 (August 5), with a rise of +2,745 (about +4.41%), showing strong strength.
B-b wave: 64,955 → 64,091 (August 6, 13:30), a decrease of -864 (about -1.33%), with a pullback of only 31.5%, indicating a strong consolidation.
Waves B-c (current): 64,091 → 65,348 (August 7, 12:00), up +1,257 (about +1.96%), strong but not yet breaking the B-a high of 64,955. Currently pulling back from 65,348 to 64,872, possibly in a sub-wave correction of B-c waves.
Larger level structure: If 57,721 (July 1 low) to 66,914 (July 21 high) is considered the first wave of a new uptrend, then the current correction from 66,914 to 62,210 is a second wave correction. The second wave correction is 4,704, about 51.2% of the first wave gain of 9,193, which is a normal deep correction. If second wave has ended at 62,210, then the third wave is currently in the stage of initiating three waves, with the third wave target at least equal to the first wave, i.e., 62,210 + 9,193 = 71,403.
Wave conclusion: Currently possibly in the upward phase of wave 3 (or B-c wave). The August 7 high of 65,348 has been broken above the August 5 high of 64,955, confirming the continuation of the upward structure. If the price can shrink and stop falling at 64,500-64,800 and then continue to break above 65,500, wave 3 will be confirmed, targeting 66,500-67,500; If it breaks below 64,000, the upward structure may fail again.
4. Volume-Price Analysis
Overall volume-price characteristics: On July 21, the sharp drop phase showed obvious volume expansion. From July 21 to August 3, trading volume during the decline phase generally shrank, indicating selling pressure gradually fading. At 09:45 on August 3, a signal of volume shrinking and stopping near 62,210 appeared. From the afternoon of August 3 to August 5, trading volume moderately expanded during the rebound phase, with active volume-price coordination. On the evening of August 5, signs of increased volume stagnation appeared in the 64,800-64,900 range. On August 7, a strong volume breakout occurred, rising from 64,112 all the way to 65,348, with significant volume expansion indicating active entry by long capital. On August 7, volume shrank during the fall from 65,348 to 64,872, indicating limited selling pressure. Overall, the active volume-price combination was "decline volume shrinkage + bottom shrinkage to stop decline + rebound volume increase + consolidation volume reduction."
Key Volume and Price Nodes:
At 09:45 on August 3, trading volume began to decline (trading volume was only about 50 million yuan), forming a phase bottom at 62,210.
At 19:30 on August 3, a high-volume bullish candlestick appeared (trading volume around 450 million), rising from 63,365 to 64,019, confirming the start of the bullish counterattack.
At 20:15 on August 5, a massive bullish candlestick appeared (trading volume around 520 million), rising from 64,750 to 64,955, confirming the high point of the B-A wave.
At 13:30 on August 6, a shrinking bearish candlestick appeared (trading volume around 120 million), pulling back from 64,800 to 64,091, confirming the B-b wave low.
At 12:00 on August 7, a high-volume bullish candlestick appeared (trading volume around 1.3 billion yuan), rising from 64,936 to 65,348, confirming the start of wave 3 (or B-c wave), marking the highest recent trading volume.
At 22:00 on August 7, there was a consolidation with reduced volume (trading volume around 110 million yuan), with prices consolidating within a narrow range of 64,800-65,000.
Recent volume and price status: From the end of August 7 to the early morning of August 8, trading volume shrank significantly, with prices consolidating narrowly within the 64,800-64,900 range, which is normal digestion after a breakout.
Volume-price conclusion: After breaking through 65,000 on August 7 with increased volume, the coordinated price has been extremely positive. Key observation points: If the pullback to 64,500-64,800 shows reduced volume and stops falling, the third wave may continue; If volume increases below 64,000 below, the rebound will end. U.S. employment suddenly turned negative, and next week's CPI will be the real test
The U.S. nonfarm payroll in July was shocking, cutting 23,000 jobs. The market had originally expected an increase of 83,000, but the data for May and June was revised down by a combined 103,000. In the past three months, the average monthly job increase was only about 20,000, showing a clear cooling of the labor market.
After the data came out, the market immediately reduced its bets on a rate hike in September. US Treasury yields and the dollar both retreated, while gold and US stocks instead surged.
But we can't just say rate hikes are over yet, because the unemployment rate is still at 4.1%, and wages year-on-year are still at 3.2%. So next week's CPI will become very critical. If inflation cools down, the Fed's reasons to continue raising rates will become less and less; Conversely, if CPI exceeds expectations again, the logic of market trading in the past few days may repeat itself.
#非农意外转负, CPI has become the key $SNDK $BICO $SPCX for rate hikes 📊 Core Contradiction: Nonfarm Payroll Upset—Why Is the Market Celebrating? Nonfarm payrolls in July were -23,000, far below the expected +80,000, marking the first monthly negative growth since February 2026; The combined employment data for May and June was sharply revised down by 103,000 people. This is a weak employment data, but the market is choosing to celebrate. Core logic: Cooling employment has further opened the Federal Reserve's rate cut window. After the data was released, Nasdaq futures surged 1.25%, the crypto market pulse rose overall, BTC surged above 65,000, and the market began pricing in a September rate cut. However, the unemployment rate fell back to 4.1%, not because of a sharp increase in jobs, but mainly due to a drop in labor force participation, indicating that the data is weak but flawed, not a one-sided recession signal; employment is simply cooling noticeably. Current interest rate futures show a 55%-60% probability of a 25bp rate cut in September, which is not a fixed conclusion but merely a rising expectation. Ultimately, it depends on next week's CPI verification. 🪙 Crypto | Amid expectations of interest rate cuts, the crypto market as a whole is experiencing a resilient recovery. As the core asset of the crypto market, BTC rebounded from around 62,500 to above 64,000 this week, with a weekly gain of about 3.1%, ending a three-week correction. ETFs saw a cumulative net inflow of about $760 million this week, with BTC exchanges remaining at their lowest levels since 2018. With the implementation of non-farm payrolls, the entire crypto market has surged rapidly, once again confirming the transmission chain:#非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in rate hikes
Nonfarm payroll data only poured cold water on rate hike expectations and is far from a policy shift. Don't rush to go all in on long positions; next week's CPI is the real deciding factor.
When the data was first released last night, many people on the planet were shocked. In July, the nonfarm payrolls dropped by 23,000 jobs. The market had expected an increase of 80,000, but the data for the previous two months was revised down by a total of 103,000, meaning the job market cooled far more than everyone had anticipated. The market surged as well, with many people shouting on the spot, "End of rate hikes, start the bull market."
But after reviewing the full data, I actually calmed down—the unemployment rate not only didn't rise, it dropped to 4.1%, but the core reason is a drop in labor force participation, not a total job market collapse. To put it simply, employment is weakening, but not enough to make the Fed completely suppress inflation.
This is also the most interesting part: two weeks ago, the market unanimously believed a rate hike in September was inevitable, and once a non-farm payroll was released, the probability of a rate hike would be cut in half, causing market sentiment to flip faster than the candlesticks. But crypto trends have never been driven by data alone; the higher the expectations, the easier it is to reverse the trend of "positive news being realized" after implementation.
Last night, I took profits after a short-term long position rebounded and didn't dare to take long-term positions or chase on highs to add positions. At this level, betting on the direction's profit-loss ratio is too low; it's better to wait until next week's CPI is finalized before making a move. As long as inflation stickiness remains, the Fed can pull rate hike expectations back at any time, and those chasing higher will be buried again.
My deepest takeaway after trading for so long: Don't swing back and forth with market sentiment. Predict less before data is released, wait for signals. Survival is always more important than making quick money.
Did you follow the data last night to manipulate it? Do you think there will be another rate hike in September?
$BTC Google borrowed another $25 billion, and the AI war is becoming increasingly expensive
Google's parent company Alphabet is preparing to make money in the bond market again, planning to issue up to $25 billion in bonds, with maturities stretched from 2 years all the way to 40 years.
I think this number is best when viewed together. In the first seven months of this year, major tech companies including Amazon, Meta, and Oracle issued about $194 billion in bonds, a 79% increase compared to the same period last year. The entire tech industry has truly entered a period of frenzied cash burning for AI.
Google is doing the same, with capital expenditures in the second quarter reaching $44.9 billion, even marking the company's first quarterly free cash flow loss.
So now, AI competition is no longer just about who has the best models; what comes next is more like a capital war. Data centers, GPUs, electricity, and storage all cost money; whoever can keep investing will have the chance to stay last. $SNDK $GOOGL $META #谷歌母公司发债250亿美元, the pressure to invest in AI is intensifying #非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in rate hikes
I'm Ci Ge, and the nonfarm payroll data is explosive. New jobs were negative 23,000, while the market expected 80,000. The previous figure was revised down from 57,000 to -76,000, with a total reduction of 103,000 for May and June. But the unemployment rate actually dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, because the labor force participation rate fell, not because employment got stronger.
Employment turning negative and unemployment falling at the same time indicate a structural problem. Large-scale layoffs in government departments are the main drag, and the private sector isn't doing much better—companies are cutting back on hiring. But the unemployment rate is still falling because fewer people are looking for jobs, not because the job market is getting better. This structure is very similar to the early stages of a recession: total employment is shrinking, but the unemployment rate hasn't started to rise sharply yet.
After the nonfarm payroll announcement, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped from over 50% to 44%, while Kalshi showed the probability of keeping rates unchanged to 65%. The interest rate market is moving dovish, but the divergence is not over. Fed officials and some institutions still believe sticky inflation is the core risk, and if CPI strengthens again next week, rate hike expectations could rebound at any time. The main trading theme has changed; it's no longer about who can beat whom, but whether CPI will reshape the policy pricing for September after the nonfarm upset.
The direct impact on BTC's short-term trend is very clear. Employment data is significantly below expectations, the probability of a rate hike in September has declined, the US dollar has weakened, and risk assets have benefited in the short term. BTC has surged rapidly from around 64,750, reaching a high above 65,500, with the short liquidation zone being touched and the short squeeze is being realized. After breaking through 65,000, the next resistance zone between 66,000 and 66,500 is the next resistance zone. The positive news from weak nonfarm payroll data is still fermenting, and the short-term bullish trend is likely to continue.
Next week's CPI will be the real test. If CPI data is strong, rate hike expectations will surge again, and BTC may pull back to 63,500 to 64,000. If CPI data is weak and rate cut expectations heat up, BTC could challenge 67,000 to 68,000. The non-farm payrolls have flipped the table, and CPI will determine whether this round of market rebounds or reversals. Before the data is released, don't overhold positions; set stop-losses and wait for CPI to decide the next direction.
Ci Ge finished speaking. Take a closer look $BTC $ETH $SNDK Note a valuable insight that's easy to overlook: BlackRock's latest disclosure shows it held 51 million Class A shares of $SPACE as of the end of June. Institutions are quietly accumulating pre-IPO assets in the secondary market; this signal is more concrete than any hype—smart money is positioning early on the "space + AI infrastructure" narrative. The real potential of $SPACE isn't just in the rockets themselves, but in Starlink's cash flow and its strategic positioning to power and network AI data centers. Retail investors have limited exposure, but to understand where the narrative is headed, you first need to know where the big money is going. Protect your ammo and watch closely. #存储股财报后续跌, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
Review the losing orders daily on the tenth day
Boss Shi's little fanboy!!
Please call me the Chinese server trader, even though today is also a day of instant noodles
🔥 Financial reports far exceed expectations, but stock prices reverse and crash! The storage sector unfolds a magical scene 📉
Despite both revenue and profit skyrocketing, some leading companies have seen gross margins soar to 80%+—a cash-printing machine-level performance—but after the financial reports were released, they have collectively pulled back. Many investors are puzzled: Is this big AI memory bull market really coming to an end? 💥
📊 Behind the market phenomenon lies not a complete fundamental reversal, but the classic capital market saying: "Buy expectations, sell facts." In this round of storage rally, stock prices have already exhausted the market's optimistic expectations in advance; the battle for capital is not about how much money is made now, but about how fast growth can be achieved in the future.
Even if the current data is impressive, the next quarter's earnings guidance simply fails to explode further and fails to meet the already maxed-out expectations, causing profit-taking at high levels to concentrate and trigger a stampede correction. At the same time, after a huge rally, sector holdings have become extremely crowded, and even a small marginal signal can easily be amplified into a sharp drop.
✅ The bullish logic remains: the real demand for HBM high-bandwidth memory from AI large models and AI servers has not disappeared, major manufacturers' production capacity remains tight, the industry supply-demand pattern has not been completely broken, and buyback policies provide some buffer for stock prices.
⚠️ But the risks cannot be ignored: storage is a strong cyclical sector, and ultra-high gross margins are hard to sustain permanently; The price increase slope is gradually slowing, making it difficult to sustain the explosive growth seen before. A bull market does not mean only one-sided gains; after a big rally, deep oscillating corrections occur, which is the norm for cyclical stocks.
In summary: the long-term logic of AI memory hasn't been fully disproven, but the short-term sweet period is over. The market has shifted from blind rally to a phase of high-difficulty volatility and strategic maneuvering, no longer an era of winning with your eyes closed.$SLX surged today. Looking at the data now, there should be a lot of short positions inside. However, I am not very optimistic about these bears, because this coin may continue to rise. I checked the data for this coin, and right now it should be halfway up the mountain, not just halfway up the top. If you enter this position, you may suffer huge losses. This position really isn't very open to empty. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. It can be seen that its contract long-short ratio only peaked at 4 a.m. today, while its contract open interest had already started rising yesterday afternoon. This indicates that many bulls had already entered yesterday afternoon to go long. This also indirectly shows that $SLX's recent rise was definitely not a whim—it was well prepared. Let's take a look at its funding rate. Its funding rate is surprisingly much higher, which is a rather strange phenomenon. Because this coin is listed in the spot market, if I go short the contract at this time and buy the spot at the same time, Then I can achieve a low-risk profit of 40 to 50 percent annually. This is a very strange thing because making this profit is very simple. Is there really such a good opportunity to make money in the market? I thought carefully and thought this might be a major shipment. Currently, very few retail investors are willing to buy this kind of spot trade, so they may need to rely on arbitrage to sell off. The more people shorting it now, the more people are actually buying its spot share. Then the dealer would not acceptTonight's nonfarm payrolls may be even more deceiving. When everyone is waiting for a number, what the market is truly betting on is something else. Have you noticed? First, let's talk about the most vulnerable link I saw: the betting structure in the derivatives market has already priced in tonight's "neutral" results. In other words, if the data really falls near 83,000, there may be little fluctuation, since expectations are already ahead of the data. The core variable tonight has never been the nonfarm payrolls themselves, but the "temperature difference" between them and the unemployment rate. If employment is strong but the unemployment rate rises above 4.3%, the market will not simply interpret it as "good economy" but will instead start worrying about stagflation logic, which is a more difficult situation for risk assets than simple employment. Looking at three paths in a breakdown, but more important than the path is the rhythm: - The data falls in the 60k-100k range: this is everyone's "safe card," but the derivatives market has already factored this outcome, so the real response might be — first insert small pins, then slowly recover, better to observe, not chase. - Data exceeds 130k: Stronger US dollar, tech stocks under pressure, but crypto should note that the correlation between BTC and US stocks is weakening recently. If US stocks fall while BTC holds sideways, it indicates that market funds are switching logic rather than simply avoiding risks. - Data below 40k: On the surface, it's favorable for risk assets, but if unemployment surges simultaneously, the market will shift directly from "easing trading" to "recession trading," which is when gold and ...a LUNA-style contagion discount on $HYPE has no backing in the Situational Awareness figures. the percentage return measures fund performance, while the asset estimate describes post-sale holdings, including private investments that remained. subtracting different-date asset estimates doesn't measure investor loss, so a $HYPE short built on that arithmetic is flimsy.Many people immediately cheered that the Asian crypto sector has won big when they saw the US CLARITY Act vote postponed, but I think there's no need to celebrate prematurely.
With US regulations still undecided, a large amount of institutional capital is temporarily flowing to Hong Kong and Singapore to find footholds, while Japan and India are also rushing to improve their crypto regulations. Asia has indeed gained a development window.
But this is merely a gap dividend, not an established pattern. When the August recess ends, the bill will be brought back to the table. Capital is always pragmatic; it migrates to where rules are stable and expectations are clear.
If Asia wants to retain funds and talent, it cannot simply rely on US policy stagnation. A continuously stable regulatory system is the trump card; short-term benefits cannot withstand excessive hype. A structural check on the crypto market after the non-farm payrolls. $BTC basically stayed flat around 64500 in the past 24 hours, with funding rates maintaining a mild positive value and open interest remaining low, indicating that this wave neither saw long positions adding leverage nor panic deleveraging, just low volume and cautious observation. Liquidations are still hitting shorts more, the short squeeze structure remains, but the volume can't support a trend. Coinbase is trading at a slight discount to Binance, showing that US funds are not aggressively accumulating. In short: the data tells you the market is waiting for the next macro variable, not choosing a direction. Watch the positions, don't be fooled by a single candlestick.Last night's non-farm payroll performance was below expectations, so by normal interpretation, it should be bearish. The market just opened with a slight drop.
But the market didn't keep falling, for a simple reason: everyone started betting again on the rising probability of rate cuts.
At first, the group was actually quite panicked, since they had just experienced a repeat of the big crash. Seeing the bad data, their first reaction was naturally "Is it going to crash again?"
But the market gives a less pessimistic answer.
$AXTI $AAOI light, you can still see the capital making choices here,
This is actually quite important.
Because in truly weak markets, bad news comes out and no one buys it;
The script I wrote on August 4th is still being followed.
As retail investors, we only need to follow the choices of our funds to get a taste of the soup, rather than constantly predicting the future.
So I maintain: when prices fall, look for opportunities, but don't chase; Add when there is support; if not, wait.Morning Commentary: Nonfarm payrolls collapse rate hike expectations—can BTC surge today?
I checked the market in the morning. Last night's nonfarm roll reversal probably kept many holding positions at a low sleep.
A few days ago, the hawks at the Federal Reserve came out one by one to threaten the market, shouting that it's time to raise rates slowly, pushing the probability of a rate hike in September to 57%. BTC crashed to 64,000, ETH and SOL followed with a sluggish decline. Yesterday morning, someone in the group was already saying it would break 60,000, with many cutting losses.
But last night, the nonfarm payrolls were proven wrong: employment in July didn't increase but actually fell, losing 23,000 people. The market had previously expected an increase of 80,000, marking the first negative growth since February this year. Even earlier, ADP data was already shocking, with only 44,000 increases, hitting a six-month low. So they talk about fighting inflation every day, but then the job market can't hold out first.
Once the data came out, the probability of a rate hike was cut to 40% on the spot, and the market pulled back directly. BTC recovered above 65,200, up 1.3% in 24 hours; ETH hit 1940, up nearly 1.7%; SOL also surged to around 74. But honestly, this wave of volume was really average; it looked more like an oversold repair rather than a reversal start. I didn't dare chase the rally.
Let me tell you about my own trade: yesterday afternoon, I dropped to around 64,000 and took some short-term positions. When I woke up this morning, I saw it hit around 65,500 and took half my profit, so I kept my profits safely in my pocket. My long-term bottom position was still untouched, so this little fluctuation shouldn't cause me to toss and go.
The most interesting thing now is that the Fed itself is split. The hawks insist that inflation is still at 3.6%, far from the 2% target, and oil prices are still climbing, so they can't relax; The doves say employment is already experiencing negative growth, and if it continues, something big will happen. With both sides arguing, the market swings back and forth, and the crypto world is now completely led by the macros, with no rhythm at all.
Don't think that just because the nonfarm farm supply shock means a rate cut is imminent—don't even think about it. If inflation hasn't truly fallen, the Fed won't budge. Right now, it's an awkward period of observation—no daring to raise rates casually, no face to talk about rate cuts, so they're just maintaining high interest rates to tough out, seeing which side can't hold out first.
The real direction is set by next week's CPI data. If inflation exceeds expectations again, even if employment is poor, the Fed will most likely continue to be stubborn or even take action; If inflation can go down, interest rate hikes are basically over, and only then will BTC and ETH have a chance to see a decent rally.
For today's market, I suggest not chasing blindly or cutting recklessly. If you have positions, hold on; if not, don't rush to go all-in. The biggest taboo in a volatile market is chasing gains and selling downs; wait until next week's CPI is released before making a move.
This is purely my personal market opinion and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make your own decisions with your own money.
$BTC ，$ETH ， $SOL
#非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in rate hikes Once the US-Iran reconciliation and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz are implemented, the clear transmission path for the crypto and US stock markets is clear
The transmission chain is clear and direct: with the strait being unblocked→ the crude oil geopolitical risk premium has completely disappeared, oil prices are trending downward→ inflationary pressure has substantially eased→ market expectations for rate cuts have been established→ and global risk assets have received a systematic boost.
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1. U.S. Stocks
1. Clear Positives: Nasdaq, AI tech growth stocks (such as Nvidia). After oil prices have lowered inflation, the Federal Reserve no longer needs to maintain high interest rates, and the valuation pressure on high-valuation growth stocks has been lifted.
2. Sectors with Certain Beneficiaries: Aviation, Logistics, Chemicals; The energy sector is clearly under pressure, and falling oil prices will directly suppress oil stocks.
3. Core risk: Driven by short-term sentiment, not fundamental reversal. If it is only a temporary 60-day agreement, the positive could easily turn into "selling immediately upon realization"—the news may actually face downward pressure after announcement.
2. Crypto Circle
Bitcoin is currently classified as a risk asset, following the major trend of U.S. tech stocks.
Bullish logic:
1. Falling oil prices directly suppress inflation, the market shifts toward trading expectations for rate cuts, liquidity expectations improve—clearly positive for BTC;
2. After the receding geopolitical panic, safe-haven funds flowed out of gold, with some shifting to risk assets, injecting incremental liquidity into the crypto market. Isn't the market hard to manage? The US storage sector is falling more aggressively, with Micron, Hynix, SanDisk, Western Digital, and Seagate all weakening, and Seagate plunging 10 points. This is no coincidence—the industry cycle is already on the downward slope.
Previously, AI was booming, and everyone was hoarding stock; But now, consumer demand for phones and computers is weak, and inventory is piling up. Manufacturers don't want to cut production and lose market share, so their supply keeps increasing, DRAM and NAND chip prices keep falling, and company profits are naturally squeezed.
Destocking will take at least 2-3 quarters. Even if AI servers are still consuming chips, it won't fill the gap in consumer electronics demand.
Especially Seagate and Western Digital, which, besides the industry downturn, are also continuously capturing the mechanical hard drive market, bearing dual pressure.
To put it bluntly, we're currently in a downward phase. As long as inventory hasn't been digested and chip prices haven't stabilized, fundamentals won't pick up. Rushing to buy the bottom now can easily get stuck, so the short-term market is likely to remain weak. Although Bitcoin's and Estee's volatility is becoming more limited, candlestick analysis is more or less accurate. If you can analyze Biting Estee, other varieties won't have major issues, as long as you strictly control your positions
$BTC $ETH #非农意外转负, CPI is the key factor in raising interest rates I clearly list my position in $BICO
Last time $LAB, I was deeply involved, eventually exploding several thousand USD, and crashed before dawn. I really admire LAB's market makers.
But trading demon coins requires conditions. If you want to raise it by 10 or 100 times, many conditions are required. First, the circulating market must be low,
Secondly, there must be a tripartite agreement: the market maker, platform, and market maker—no one can sell chips recklessly
It's not like we imagine you can be a dealer just because you have money,
People are selfish. If you buy BICO at 0.01 and 10,000 USD, even without leverage, if you pull it to 0.1 and multiply tenfold, wouldn't you sell?
At that time, many LAB holders had book profits from airdrops reaching several million USD. Those holding these positions were more anxious than market makers and had to sell everything on the first day of the lock-up, because the less they sold, the more the value depreciated. They knew it was just empty space
Back to BICO is now fully circulating. You can check it out—the market makers still have a huge amount of unreleased shares, so much that no matter how much you pay, you can't buy them all. They can sell anytime, and right now, the biggest concern for the market is how to sell them, not how to raise the price.
Brothers holding short positions, you must hold onYesterday, ETH was +2.03σ, and the entire internet was calling it a bullish pullback. I didn't chase after him. Today, ETH fell back to +0.41σ, and the entire network went quiet. I didn't move either. But I found an even more dangerous signal in the data—not ETH, but cross-exchange divergence. 📊 Let's look at the sentiment panorama. Today, all coins have 7-day deviations in the yellow zone (neutral): BTC +0.07σ, ETH +0.41σ, CRV +0.37σ, OP 0.00σ, H +0.03σ. Everyone is on the look. This is the first time in nearly seven days. ⚠️ But cross-agency data is fighting 💡: my operations are empty at 80%. If either of these two conditions is met, I'll act: ETH falls back below +0.5σ (normal range→ may open a long list, OKX big players rebound above 1.0, → cross-exchange divergence resolved, not moved by volatility, only acting as signals. 📋 Today's Data Overview: 7-day sentiment: +0.18σ (normal) 14-day sentiment: +0.04σ (normal) Cross-exchange divergence: 1.44 (●strong divergence, divergence widening sharply) Fear and greed: 40 (Neutral) Liquidation: $193.82M (+22%) Here's a question: OKX 0.25 (historical low) vs Binance 1.52 (stable with slightly bullish), which side will win in 3 days? A. OKX whales are right—bearish
B. Binance Big Players Are Right and Bullish
C. Mutual destruction, continuing sideways consolidationMicron Technology $MU, SanDisk $SNDK, SKHYNIX
I have a bold guess: the past few days weren't a reversal, but a self-preservation move. If the Nasdaq index fell about 1% yesterday, it would trigger systemic sell-off. This puzzling trend, combined with the current global stock market, especially Korea's technical bear market, is very likely that after quantitative sell-offs are triggered, it's very likely that both will fall together. This is something institutions don't want to see. Of course, institutions know the index is currently supported by technology and storage, so they are helping to maintain the safety line.
What supports this is a very strange situation: storage technology is rebounding, gold is rising, oil is also rising, which is very strange. A few days later, the CSP test will even arrive. The first is Google, which is not very favorable, Gemini 3.5 Pro, and is postponing. With no one able to secure current returns and capital expenditures, institutions usually focus on risk aversion, because CSPs are unqualified. CSP and storage are both traded together, with risks multiplied by multiple. But now, they are choosing to open up in a very unreasonable way???
Has anyone here analyzed the current situation? #Nonfarm Unexpected Turns Negative, CPI Becomes Key to Rate Hikes #存储股财报后续跌, Is the AI Memory Bull Market Still Stable? #交易之声: Your Experience Deserves to Be Heard ？