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SpaceX suddenly being treated as an AI company by Wall Street
The biggest recent change for $SPCX, I think, is no longer rockets or Starlink.
It's AI.
Oppenheimer recently directly stated that about 6 months ago, SpaceX had almost no presence in the AI field, but now with the $60 billion Cursor deal progressing, it is already being compared to top AI companies like Anthropic.
This is also why Wall Street has recently started to raise its expectations for SpaceX again.
If in the future SpaceX connects the Starlink network, global data, AI models, data centers, and even space computing power, then it might ultimately not be just a pure aerospace company.
But I still won’t chase $xSPCX now.
There is still unlocking pressure in September, and the market has already priced in very high growth expectations.
The company is getting stronger, I admit; stocks can be bought at any price, I disagree.
I will wait until the market digests the chip pressure in September before taking another look. Before the U.S. stock market opened, the market collectively strengthened, with gold, U.S. stocks, and BTC rising simultaneously, mainly driven by Waller's speech.
Waller stated that whether to raise interest rates in September depends on the August CPI data released next Friday. This effectively revises the hawkish tone from Jackson Hole, shifting from "leaning towards a rate hike unless data weakens" to "no rate hike for now unless inflation heats up again." As a result, the CME September rate hike expectation fell by 10 percentage points to 50.4%.
According to the inverse relationship between rate hike probability and gold prices, the decline in rate hike expectations directly pushed gold prices up, with 4280 possibly being the bottom of this round of pullback. If tomorrow night's non-farm payrolls, next week's CPI, and the September 16 interest rate meeting again hover around this level, it could be a key point for positioning.
At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields for 2/10/30 years fell simultaneously; if Treasury yields rebound again, today's rally still faces the risk of giving back gains. Control your position size, and refer to the previous article for strategy.Bitcoin started to rebound tonight
Tomorrow's non-farm payrolls may directly decide whether 80,000 can come back
$BTC hit a low of about 76,400 USD last night, but buying resumed today, and the price has rebounded to around 77,600 to 78,000 USD.
And now there is a change that I think is quite critical.
The market's probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September has dropped from over 67% yesterday to about 62%.
But BTC's current problem is also obvious.
The latest outflow from spot ETFs is about 236 million USD, BTC inflows to exchanges have increased, and stablecoin supply has not grown significantly, so the spot strength of this rebound is not particularly strong for now.
The real showdown is tomorrow's non-farm payrolls.
If employment starts to cool down and the probability of a rate hike continues to decline, 80,000 USD is very likely to re-enter the attack range immediately.
Conversely, if the data is too strong, I will still guard against a pullback to 74,000 to 75,000.
$BTC #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 This is currently the most noteworthy area. 👀 The Middle East situation continues to heat up, Brent crude oil has broken through $90 again; US Treasury yields remain high, with ongoing pressure on the dollar and real interest rates; and the market pricing for the Fed's September meeting has clearly turned cautious, with the probability of a rate hike once rising to about 60%+. According to past market experience: rising oil prices ❌ rising yields ❌ cooling rate cut expectations ❌ increasing geopolitical risks ❌ all these factors should normally put pressure on BTC and other high-volatility assets. But BTC's performance is somewhat "off-script." Currently, the price is still oscillating repeatedly around $77K, with continuous support around $76K–$77K, while there is obvious selling pressure above $79K–$80K. What's more interesting is that BTC did not immediately lose key levels when macro pressures appeared. This suggests that the market may be undergoing some changes. In the past, BTC was more easily regarded as a "high-risk tech asset"; but now, when oil prices, yields, and geopolitical tensions all worsen simultaneously, it begins to show some resilience. Of course, this does not mean BTC has completely turned into "digital gold." If the $76K area is ultimately broken, then previously accumulated long positions may face concentrated stop losses, and the price could quickly move down to seek new liquidity. But if next: 📌 oil prices continue to stay high 📌 US Treasury yields continue to rise 📌 the FedJust now, the US initial jobless claims were released: 206,000, expected 205,000, previous 204,000. Higher than expected.
A quick explanation: Initial jobless claims are announced every Thursday and count the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. The higher the number, the more people are unemployed, indicating a weaker job market.
This is the second consecutive weakening employment data. Yesterday, ADP private payrolls were 38,000, expected 47,000; today initial claims are 206,000, expected 205,000. Both data points tell the same story: the US job market is cooling down.
What does this mean for BTC? It's simple: cooling employment → reduced inflation pressure → less need for Fed rate hikes → weaker dollar → BTC rises.
Currently, the probability of a rate hike in September is 68%. If tomorrow's nonfarm payroll data is also weak, this probability will drop below 50%. At that point, BTC hitting 80,000 becomes a high-probability event.
But note, initial claims are weekly data and fluctuate a lot; the real decider is tomorrow night's nonfarm employment report.
With employment data weakening consecutively, the confidence for rate hikes is gone.
Do you think tomorrow's nonfarm data will be strong or weak? I bet weak, no rate hike in September. If you find this useful, please share it so more people can see it. #Gold ETF increased holdings by nearly 10 tons, options volatility draws attention Gold is getting stronger and stronger this round. Central banks are adjusting their portfolios, ETFs are accumulating, and both point to the same direction — preparing for uncertainty. Goldman Sachs also added that the behavior of gold options market makers may amplify buying during rallies and exacerbate drawdowns during declines. In plain terms, gold's rise could be stronger than expected. What does this have t$SNDK rose another 29% throughout August
The current price is around $1550. The market is discussing it again today, with the core still being the storage super cycle driven by AI.
The most exaggerated recent data is from data centers.
SanDisk's data center revenue last quarter reached $2.98 billion, accounting for about one-third of the company's quarterly revenue, a year-on-year increase of 437%. Management continues to emphasize that NAND demand still exceeds supply.
So I am not bearish on SanDisk's fundamentals.
But the stock price has already increased dozens of times in the past year, so even with good fundamentals, at this point, we have to start considering how much the market has already priced in.
I chose to take profits at the previous high, and I still feel the same now.
I remain optimistic about the company, but will wait for a pullback in the stock and not chase it.
$SNDK Bitcoin's movement today, frankly, is that the bears tried to push it down near 76300 but couldn't break it,
just stuck around the average cost line of active investors at 76350,
then bounced back above 77600.
Seeing a +1.5% gain is somewhat encouraging, but I have to pour cold water:
The spot ETF saw an outflow of 236 million yesterday, and stablecoin supply hasn't increased,
indicating that real money buying hasn't actually kept up.
This wave looks more like short covering in the leveraged market pushing it up,
not new incremental funds entering.
September historically averages a 2.95% drop,
if Friday's non-farm payrolls disappoint, the 80,000 level will probably still be a tough barrier.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 $BTC $ETH $SOL The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has risen to 66% to 70%. Following hawkish signals from Wash and the Jackson Hole meeting, Powell has reiterated that if inflation does not show substantial decline, he will support a new round of rate hikes. The CPI report on September 11 is a key milestone, and market funds have already priced it in. BTC fell below the 77,000 mark last night, hitting a low near $76,500. The strengthening dollar, oil prices holding above $90, combined with ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, have created multiple pressures, causing the September effect to reappear. Historical data shows BTC typically drops about 3% in September, and the seasonal weakness should not be ignored. Key ranges: support lies between $76,000 and $76,500; if broken effectively, the next support is between $73,700 and $75,100; resistance is concentrated between $79,400 and $80,100. In terms of strategy, the base position can continue to be held; it is not advisable to actively add positions at this stage. Be patient and wait for the CPI release or for a volume contraction and stabilization signal near $76,000 before reassessing. The combination of rate hike expectations and seasonal weakness lowers the cost-effectiveness of heavy bets on a one-sided market, so caution is more prudent. Risk warning: Market volatility is high, please control your positions rationally. $BTCFederal Reserve Governor Waller recently spoke publicly, expressing a different view on Chairman Walsh's policy communication philosophy.
He stated that pursuing perfection blindly could actually hinder pragmatic policy actions. Compared to complete ambiguity, it is preferable to provide the market with moderate guidance on the future direction of interest rates.
Since Walsh took office, he has advocated downplaying or even abandoning forward guidance, not setting interest rate paths in advance, and letting everything follow the data, returning pricing power to the market.
Waller's view is exactly the opposite: a flawless roadmap is not necessary, but the central bank should clearly explain its policy reaction logic so that the stock market, bond market, and crypto market can form reasonable expectations about the Fed's actions, reducing unwarranted market volatility.
This indicates a clear divergence in communication strategy within the Federal Reserve.
If more officials lean towards Waller's approach, the market can receive more policy signals, and the volatility of U.S. Treasuries, Gold, and $BTC will converge; if Walsh's model continues, lacking clear guidance, every CPI and nonfarm payroll report is likely to trigger sharp, spike-like fluctuations.
With the nonfarm payroll data approaching, this internal debate will also increase market uncertainty.
Policy communication is only an aid; ultimately, everything still depends on hard data on inflation and employment. Do not simply bet on officials' speeches; manage position risk well. The 20% big bullish candle on $BTC last week was not a dead cat bounce; it’s the standard opening move for every bear-to-bull reversal. The weekly pattern is very clear: after every epic bullish candle, there’s a 4-7 week sideways consolidation before the second leg up. We’re just entering the second weekly candle now; a weak rebound means shifting gears, not reversing. Despite bearish factors like US-Iran escalation and oil prices breaking 90, BTC only pulled back slightly to 76,000 before bouncing back, showing resilience against the headwind—big players are accumulating. The 70,000-76,000 range below should be seen as a consolidation accumulation zone; if it doesn’t break down, wait for volume to pick up again on the weekly chart.
For crude oil $CL, try scaling short positions at 86.5/91/96 with 10% position each and double leverage for the long term. Approaching 100, geopolitical premium is likely to be given back with a ceasefire, so don’t add leverage greedily. Altcoins $SOL /PENGU/CRCL have dropped 10-20% after topping out; the buyback zone has arrived. Wait for BTC weekly to break 81,500 and rotate back to catch the second leg. Be patient, money is made slowly.Successfully bottomed gold at 4300
Tonight it has already climbed back above 4500
The day before yesterday, when gold dropped near 4300, I started buying, and now this position has shown a good rebound.
Tonight, spot gold has returned above $4500, mainly because the dollar and US Treasury yields have fallen from their highs.
But what really needs to be waited for tonight is not gold's own news.
It's tomorrow's US non-farm payrolls.
If employment data starts to cool down, market expectations for a September rate hike will continue to decline, and US Treasury yields will also fall, then this round near 4300 for gold is very likely a very nice shakeout.
So I will temporarily hold on to the 4300 position.
The first hurdle is to see if it can reclaim 4550 to 4600.
If it stabilizes above that again, there is a chance to test 4700 once more.
$XAU $XAUT Japan’s Remixpoint sold its $ETH, $SOL, $XRP and $DOGE, leaving roughly 1,506 $BTC as its only crypto holding. I don’t see this as proof that altcoins are finished. I see it as a signal of where corporate conviction is strongest right now. When uncertainty rises, BTC’s deeper liquidity and broader institutional acceptance make it the preferred crypto reserve. BTC first. Alts must earn the rotation. #LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue ARB at $0.135, are you chasing or waiting?
First, look at the surface: three big bullish candles, retail investors shouting "bull market is back quickly."
On August 31, ARB surged from 0.084 with a huge bullish candle to 0.109, a single-day increase of over 30%. On September 1, it continued to push to 0.119. On September 3, ARB soared 18.5% in one day to $0.14, becoming the biggest gainer among major coins. In three days, it went from being ignored to the hottest asset in the market.
The candlestick tells you: all moving averages are trampled underfoot. Seriously overbought, beware of a pullback.
First thing: Robinhood Chain is real money, not just hype
This surge has nothing to do with BTC—BTC is still sideways at 77,000-78,000. ARB is running an independent rally, with one core catalyst: Robinhood Chain.
This thing launched its mainnet on July 1, built on Arbitrum Orbit technology. After two months online, per the cooperation agreement, Robinhood Chain returns 10% of the protocol’s net revenue to the Arbitrum ecosystem—8% goes to the DAO treasury, 2% to the developer guild. So far, it has contributed about $1.3 million in real money to Arbitrum.
Second thing: but don’t get too excited—technicals are already seriously overbought
Daily RSI has surged above 80, 4-hour RSI is between 70-78
14-period RSI is 73.57, stochastic %K exceeds 91
Price is pressing the upper Bollinger Band, %B reading over 1.0—indicating ARB has exceeded its statistical price boundary
The upper Bollinger Band is at 0.13, ARB has already pierced through it
Third thing: a sword hanging over your head in mid to late September
On September 16, about 92.63 million ARB will unlock, accounting for 0.93% of total supply.
On September 23, another 139.2 million ARB will unlock, worth about $15.2 million, accounting for 1.4% of total supply.
Together, over 230 million ARB will be unlocked.
Unlocking doesn’t mean immediate dumping, but—in a market that just surged over 50% and is seriously overbought, massive new supply plus profit-taking pressure—does this recipe look familiar?
Resistance above: 0.141 (intraday high) → 0.148-0.150 → 0.163-0.180
Support below: 0.122-0.125 → 0.110-0.115 → 0.100
Short-term traders:
Wait for a pullback to 0.122-0.125 to enter, stop loss at 0.112. Or wait for daily close above 0.141 to chase on the right side, stop loss at 0.130.
Swing traders:
Wait for a pullback to 0.110-0.115 to build positions in batches; this is the previous breakout zone and the technical analysis pullback target. Stop loss at 0.100. Targets at 0.148-0.152, second target 0.163-0.180.
Risk control iron rules:
Keep ARB position under 5-8% of total capital
Don’t use leverage; this volatility can’t handle 3x leverage
Watch the FOMC on September 15-16 and the unlocking window in mid to late September
If BTC falls below 76,000, ARB will be the first to fall
Every time you lose money, it’s because you’re afraid to buy at the bottom and reluctant to sell at the top.
ARB rose from 0.08 to 0.14, 50% in three days. You missed the ride and now you’re anxious. Now you want to chase— but the moment you chase in, you become someone else’s profit.
ARB at 0.135, are you waiting for a pullback or rushing in as fuel?
What is your ARB cost? Did you profit or miss out this round?
$BTC $ETH $ARB #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $SOL has bounced back above $102
There is still a real big event at the end of September
SOL has returned above $100 today, rebounding about 2% in 24 hours.
The biggest advantage for SOL now is that the short-term market direction is led by BTC, and it has an independent catalyst at the end of the month.
Solana's Alpenglow is currently planned to officially enter the activation phase on September 28. This will directly change Solana's consensus mechanism and further compress the final transaction confirmation time.
Previously, SOL also passed a plan to accelerate inflation reduction.
This means improving network performance while reducing the speed of new SOL issuance in the future.
So my current view on $SOL is simple:
Clean out positions around $100 first. As long as BTC does not experience a major breakdown, I believe SOL will have traders anticipating Alpenglow before the end of September.Top giants exposed stepping on gray gold: How much longer can the compliance veil of traditional finance hold?
Gold has always been revered by traditional institutions as the impeccable king of safe havens, but even trillion-dollar giants with the strictest audits like Tesla, Amazon, and Volkswagen have been found to purchase gray gold from sanctioned regions in their supply chains.
This directly punctures a huge absurdity faced daily in the crypto world.
Mainstream old money always views crypto assets through tinted glasses, hastily labeling them as non-compliant and hard to trace. But the reality is that the supply chain of traditional physical gold has long been penetrated by smuggling, origin forgery, and gray refining, turning it into a sieve. Institutions pay exorbitant audit costs to maintain so-called compliant chains, yet they cannot even guard the most basic truth of origin.
Physical gold relies on paper documents to prove its innocence, but in an era of geopolitical fragmentation, paper compliance itself is an expensive business full of rent-seeking and forgery.
In contrast, every satoshi of Bitcoin’s production and circulation is verified by the entire network’s computing power on a transparent ledger. No miner can cheat behind the scenes, no intermediary can alter historical records. In this deglobalization cycle where even physical gold cannot prove its own innocence, mathematically certain on-chain assets instead constitute the ultimate hard currency with the least global compliance friction.
Seeing through this veil of traditional compliance, how much longer do you think it will take for large funds to flow from paper gold to on-chain hard assets?
#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 Today, Asia-Pacific stock markets are bleeding heavily
The South Korean Composite Index plummeted 4%, the Nikkei 225 dropped 2.85%, while the US stock market was still rebounding last night. Why did Asia collapse?
The answer lies in a yield curve, and this matter is more related to the crypto world than you think.
The culprit is Japanese government bonds. The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds rose to 3.016%, surpassing 3% for the first time since 1996. Don't underestimate this line; for the past thirty years, Japan has been almost the cheapest source of money globally, with borrowing costs in yen nearly zero. The entire world's carry trade was built on this foundation. Now that Japan's interest rate has broken 3%, borrowing costs have soared, and carry trade funds are beginning to withdraw on a large scale.
The withdrawal path is roughly like this: sell overseas stocks and assets, convert back to yen to repay debt. So we saw the yen surge intraday to 160.39, then sharply drop to 158.71, with volatile fluctuations; the Nikkei fell 2.85%, the South Korean Composite Index plunged 4%, and Asia-Pacific risk assets collectively paid the price. Remember the global stock crash triggered by the unwinding of yen carry trades in August 2024? The script looks familiar.
The transmission chain to the crypto world is clear: expectations of global liquidity tightening first hit the stock market, then hit crypto, which is a pure liquidity asset. Today, BTC remains steady at 77,500, but that doesn't mean it can remain immune forever. If Japanese bond yields continue to soar, the next wave of shocks could come at any time.
This week, watch two indicators: Japan's 10-year government bond yield and the yen exchange rate. If either shows drastic fluctuations, reduce positions first before asking why. $BTC $ETH $SOL today is not about the trend, it's about position survival. BTC retraced to 77,500, XRP rose alone by 1%, SOL hovered around 100, ETH can't even hold 2400 — the divergence between strong and weak widens, indicating institutions are only willing to pay a premium for BTC.
The liquidation data is interesting: long positions have been washed out, shorts haven't fared well either; in 24 hours, both sides suffered losses, proving a sideways double kill. On Coinglass, BTC funding rate is close to 0, leverage isn't crazy, which actually loosens constraints for later.
Macro sentiment is conflicted: on the eve of non-farm payrolls, rate hike pricing is at 66%, but August private sector employment only added 38,000, contradicting expectations. The market fears inflation while secretly betting on dovishness. In such times, an uptrend cycle is easily interrupted by CPI, while a downtrend cycle is easily revived by non-farm payrolls.
My view — short cycles (4h/daily) are oscillating bearish, long cycles (weekly/monthly) show BTC still consolidating at high levels after the big August rally; no talk of trend reversal unless 74k breaks. Profits aren't about guessing direction, but waiting: waiting for a 76k lower shadow support, waiting for a false breakout at 78k to reverse. Entering now at full leverage means earning fees but risking principal. #SEC拟更新转让代理规则，证券上链受关注 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #30年期美债收益率连续41天站上5% 🟠 A Corporate Treasury Is Choosing Bitcoin Over Altcoins Japan-listed Remixpoint has completely exited its ETH, SOL, $XRP and $DOGE positions, leaving roughly 1,506 BTC as its only cryptocurrency holding. (Decrypt) I don’t see this as proof that altcoins are finished. Instead, I see it as a clear signal of where corporate conviction is strongest right now. When market conditions become uncertain, Bitcoin still offers deeper liquidity, broader institutional acceptance, and a more established rWatch tomorrow's non-farm payrolls
$ETH funding suddenly cools down
Tonight, I will instead pay more attention to $2400
ETH is still around $2400 tonight, with no obvious price breakout, but the strongest ETF funds earlier have started to cool off.
The latest data shows that ETH ETF daily inflows have dropped from the previous $102 million and $88 million down to about $9 million.
I think this needs attention.
Because earlier, ETH was able to quickly rise from around $2000 to $2500, and continuous institutional inflows were a very important part of that.
Now that the funds are slowing down, ETH needs to rely more on spot buying to prove its strength.
So tonight, I won't rush to call $3000.
If $2400 holds, wait for tomorrow's non-farm payrolls.
If the data is favorable to risk assets and $ETH retakes $2500, I think the next phase will truly begin. The US stock market is about to open, and today I actually want to focus more on Bitcoin rather than guessing the ups and downs first.
The biggest pre-market change is already clear: tech stocks are diverging. Although Broadcom's earnings were good, the subsequent guidance didn't meet market expectations, and its pre-market price once fell nearly 4%; on the other hand, Snowflake surged over 20% pre-market due to strong earnings and positive outlook.
This shows that tonight's US stock market won't be a simple "tech stocks all rising" scenario.
Looking at Bitcoin now, it has returned to around 78,000, while oil prices remain high and the 10-year US Treasury yield stays above 4.7%. On Friday, there will be official employment data. The market is truly conflicted now: will cooling employment bring hopes for rate cuts, or will it make everyone start worrying that the economy is really deteriorating?
So after the market opens tonight, the detail I’m most focused on is:
If US tech stocks diverge but Bitcoin can hold steady at 78,000 or even continue upward, it means capital's risk tolerance is still decent.
But if the US market weakens right at the open and Bitcoin falls below 77,000 along with it, then it’s not just a simple technical correction; the market might be starting to trade on the pressure from interest rates and economic downturn again.
At this point, what’s really worth watching is the first wave of capital choices after the US market opens.
Don’t get carried away by pre-market ups and downs; the real test is at the open.
Tonight, do you think Bitcoin will follow the US stock market, or will it go its own way? #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 $BTC $BTC is flashing an on-chain signal that deserves serious attention. Realized Profit and Realized Loss are once again moving toward a potential crossover. Similar shifts in on-chain profit/loss dynamics have appeared around major Bitcoin market bottoms in previous cycles, including 2015, 2019 and 2022. That doesn’t mean history will repeat perfectly—but it does raise an important question: Are we approaching another major accumulation zone? When realized losses begin catching up with realized prETH was reminded of an old issue by Coinbase's delayed withdrawals
Today, $ETH's performance isn't looking good, with the price fluctuating around $2380 to $2450, clearly weaker than $BTC. More awkwardly, Coinbase experienced a period of Ethereum send and receive delays yesterday. Although the platform assured fund safety and the issue has been resolved, such news directly impacts ETH sentiment: users may not distinguish whether it's an exchange problem or a chain issue, and the market dislikes hearing the word "delay" during a weak phase.
This doesn't mean $ETH's fundamentals are bad, but it desperately needs trust right now. BTC's narrative is simple: scarcity, ETFs, digital gold. ETH's narrative is much more complex: mainnet, L2, staking, DeFi, stablecoins, RWA, exchange withdrawals, application gateways—each link affects market sentiment. Complexity is both a moat and a source of pressure.
The most critical level for ETH today remains $2400. Holding above $2400 indicates the market is just following macro pullbacks; if it breaks below $2400 and can't quickly recover, short-term funds will target $2350 or even $2300 below. The confirmation zone is only between $2500 and $2550; until it stands back there, all rebounds should be viewed as repairs.
The most noteworthy point about incidents like Coinbase's is that they amplify the contradictions of ETH as an "infrastructure asset." The larger the Ethereum ecosystem and the more users it has, the more minor entry issues get magnified; conversely, because it carries so many assets, platforms build risk control and status systems around it. In weak markets, investors focus on risks; in strong markets, they focus on position. The same event can be interpreted completely differently depending on sentiment.
Compared to $BTC, $ETH is disadvantaged today by interest rates. With high U.S. Treasury yields and rising expectations of September rate hikes, ETH's on-chain yields and growth attributes are less favorable. BTC can claim hard asset status; ETH must rely on application data. The market buys BTC first in defense and turns to ETH only in offense, which explains today's divergence.
But $ETH is not without opportunities. If upcoming employment data weakens and rate expectations ease, ETH will be more likely than BTC to show resilient recovery. Because the pressure on it is not from a single bad news but a whole set of risk preference discounts. Once those discounts loosen, shorts above $2500 will find it hard to stay comfortable.
I would describe $ETH as a "waiting for confirmation" asset. Watch defense near $2400, look for strength above $2500, and if it falls below $2300, the structure is broken. The biggest taboo now is chasing in the middle—rising a bit and thinking it's a reversal, falling a bit and thinking it's zero, only to be worn down by volatility.
$ETH's reminder to the market today is practical: on-chain financial assets are not just about narratives but also user experience, exchange channels, interest rate environment, and capital flows. ETH's position is not lost, but it must reclaim $2500 to deserve the market switching from doubt to offense.
So this piece cannot be purely bearish. A better conclusion is: $ETH is weak now, but for reasons; as long as those reasons can be repaired by data, its resilience will return. Support near $2400 determines short-term survival, and volume above $2500 determines whether the market is willing to reprice it. Don't fear ETH's slowness; fear is mistaking unconfirmed repair for a main rally.
Conversely, if incidents like Coinbase's channel problems recur, even if not chain-related, they will affect ordinary users' trust in ETH. Users don't care about technical responsibility; they only remember "my transfer was slow." This is the cost of infrastructure assets: the more core, the less friction can be tolerated frequently.
Therefore, $ETH's script ahead is clear. Hold $2400 and wait for a macro window; stand back above $2500, and capital will be willing to talk about resilience again; break below $2300, and the market temporarily refuses to give on-chain finance a premium. It's not without opportunity, but every step must be earned back with price confirmation.Standard Chartered Bank has officially launched institutional-level spot trading for Bitcoin and Ethereum in the UAE.
This is the first global systemically important bank to do this in the Middle East. Institutions are still using their usual electronic channels originally designed for forex, and custody is compliant.
I think this development is more worth noting than the one-point rise in today's market.
An ETF just packages the coins into a piece of paper to sell to you, but this step directly integrates crypto into the global banking pipeline.
Institutions are not coming; they are already inside.
That said, this is a slow-moving variable, not tomorrow's market.
Bitcoin is still grinding around 78,000 on the chart, Ethereum is stuck just above 2,400, so expecting a takeoff from a single Standard Chartered news is unrealistic.
My own approach is to focus on spot trading and not to use high leverage to bet on news.
If Bitcoin's daily chart holds above 76,500, I will continue holding; if the daily close falls below 75,800, I will cut my position in half. Breaking this line means the institutional narrative has not held against selling pressure, and I admit my mistake and exit.
The same applies to Ethereum; 2,350 is my psychological line, and if it breaks, I reduce my position.
This round of infrastructure in the Middle East provides a valuation floor, not a promise of gains, so don't get it backwards.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 #加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验 $BTC quickly recovered from around 76,000 to 78,447, indicating that the bearish continuation after yesterday's breakdown did not materialize, and the short-term structure has already begun to repair. From the candlestick perspective, support around 76,000 is very clear, and now it has reclaimed above 78,000, confirming the previously judged rebound level. The real test ahead is still 79,500–80,000; if it breaks through with volume, the next target I will watch is 82,000–83,000. This area is alsSOL plunges 3%, falls below $100; is the triple squeeze signaling the end of the rebound? Is it a pullback to gather strength or a sign of weakness?
Last week, the entire network was still shouting that Solana was back in a bull market, aiming for $120, but reality quickly slapped that down.
In the past 24 hours, SOL flash-crashed over 3%, with the price dipping to around $97, repeatedly struggling at the $100 psychological level, which is now precarious. From the previous high of $109.22, the maximum drawdown has approached 10%.
The hope that bulls had just kindled was instantly doused. Market opinions sharply diverge: is this just a pullback to gather strength on the way up, or has this rebound completely ended?
The answer lies in the triple pressure behind the market — each precisely hitting Solana’s weak spots.
First squeeze: Concentrated profit-taking, August rebound profits cashed out all at once
The most direct trigger for this drop was concentrated short-term profit-taking.
Throughout August, SOL recorded its first monthly surge after a long-term decline, rallying from lows to surpass $100, accumulating a massive amount of short-term profit positions. When the price first touched the previous dense trading zone, trapped funds hoped to break even, and profit holders wanted to cash out. These two selling forces combined to push the price back down to the $100 mark.
Essentially, this was a short-term capital cash-out wave, not a large-scale withdrawal of trend-following funds. But the impact was strong enough — strong enough to freeze the newly heated bullish sentiment.
Second squeeze: Macro headwinds strike precisely, high-beta SOL is the first to bleed
Heavier than profit-taking is the ongoing macro pressure, a double whammy.
The Middle East conflict continues to escalate, shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain high, Brent crude oil has stabilized above $95, pushing inflation expectations higher again; after the Jackson Hole symposium, the Fed’s hawkish signals continue to ferment, with the latest data showing a 62.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September.
Oil price rises → inflation expectations rise → rate hike expectations heat up → risk assets collectively under pressure. This transmission chain is working precisely.
SOL is a typical high-beta asset in the crypto market, with the greatest elasticity when rising and the first to be abandoned when falling. When the macro environment tightens, capital prioritizes withdrawing from high-volatility assets, making SOL the first to be hit.
Third squeeze: Core narrative hijacked, Solana’s story is no longer as compelling
A deeper concern comes from a narrative crisis at the ecosystem’s foundation.
Solana’s past story of an "internet capital market" is facing strong challenges from vertical specialized public chains like Hyperliquid. Data doesn’t lie: Hyperliquid, with its extreme trading performance, has captured about 60% of the decentralized perpetual contract market share, with weekly fee revenue of $12.6 million, officially surpassing Solana’s $11.8 million.
The market is voting with its feet: it’s becoming increasingly difficult for general-purpose public chains to capture all trading scenarios. Specialized trading chains are siphoning off the core liquidity and fee income, gradually diluting Solana’s most valuable trading narrative.
Meanwhile, the long-standing issues of insufficient institutional-grade trading depth and ecosystem liquidity overly skewed towards Meme and spot remain fundamentally unresolved.
Bull-bear lifelines: Key levels at a glance
Resistance above (increasing stepwise)
1. $102-103: Short-term bull-bear dividing line; only a close above can restart the rebound
2. $107: Previous trapped positions concentrated area; heaviest selling pressure
3. $112: Ultimate target of this rebound
Support below (decreasing stepwise)
1. $99-100: Psychological and integer support; must hold currently
2. $97.4: Low point of this rebound; breaking below signals short-term weakness
3. $92.6-95: Strong support zone; breaking below would damage the weekly bull structure
Core judgment: Pullback or trend reversal?
The weekly bull structure is not yet broken, but short-term risks have turned red.
If the $100 level can hold effectively and the pullback confirms strong support, the market still has a chance to push back up to the $107-112 range; but if the real body of the candlestick breaks below $97, the logic of this rebound will be invalidated, and the price will further test $95 or even lower.
The biggest mistake now is blindly betting on direction near $100.
There is trapped selling and macro pressure above, support and bottom-fishing capital below; the consolidation and shakeout are far from over. It’s better to patiently wait for clear signals at key levels before taking action.
Final thoughts
The irony of trading is: after three days of gains, everyone shouts the bull market is here; after one day of decline, everyone starts shouting crash.
But the real market is never black or white.
This $SOL drop involves profit-taking, macro pressure, and ecological competition concerns. It’s neither as strong as imagined nor as bad as panic suggests.
In a macro and ecological environment full of uncertainties, holding key levels and managing position size is ten thousand times more important than blindly guessing price direction. 【In September, besides the Federal Reserve, also keep an eye on the Bank of Japan】
In September, besides the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, the Bank of Japan's meeting from September 17 to 18 is also worth noting.
One of the main reasons for the yen's obvious appreciation and the rapid decline of USD/JPY this time is the market's renewed trading of expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike in September.
The trigger was a speech by Bank of Japan Policy Board member Takata So at Sapporo on the morning of September 2. He mentioned that Japan faces a more obvious risk of rising inflation, and rate hikes should no longer be bound by a fixed schedule but should be decided more flexibly based on data. He also revealed that he proposed raising the policy rate to 1.25% at the July meeting.
As a result, the market began to bet that a rate hike in September is not impossible, and the pace of subsequent hikes may be more aggressive than previously expected. Note, this is the market's interpretation, not a decision already made by the Bank of Japan.
If the US keeps rates unchanged while Japan continues to raise rates, the US-Japan interest rate differential will narrow, supporting the yen exchange rate and helping to ease imported inflation.
The previous roughly $96 billion scale of currency intervention can boost the yen in the short term but is unlikely to fundamentally solve the interest rate differential issue. Compared to repeated market interventions, a rate hike by Japan is closer to addressing the root cause: it can support the yen and suppress inflation.
As for the global stock market, I believe the impact may not be as large as a sudden rate hike. The market has already priced in this expectation in advance, so even if a rate hike does occur, the shock may be relatively controllable. Of course, having expectations does not mean there will be no volatility at all.
The above content is only a personal market analysis and trading idea record and does not constitute any investment advice. Please control your position and risk according to your own situation. September 3 Evening Hotspot Map: Mainstream Coins Stabilize, Altcoin Funds Begin to Spread Toward High Elasticity Directions
Approaching the US Services PMI and Nonfarm Employment Report, the risk market has not continued to release downward pressure; instead, it first experienced a relatively obvious recovery.
US stocks temporarily stopped falling led by the tech sector, and disturbances in oil prices and US Treasury yields have also eased. The macro environment is not yet turning accommodative, but market sentiment has gradually shifted from cautious defense to position replenishment ahead of data releases.
Changes in the crypto market are more intuitive: mainstream coins have raised short-term bottoms, public chains, DeFi, and Layer 2 generally warmed up, while high-elasticity small coins rapidly amplified gains. The problem is that the direction with the strongest gains is also the one with the greatest divergence.
Therefore, the current market can be summarized as: risk appetite is recovering, but funds are still selecting targets rather than indiscriminately pushing up all altcoins.
BTC Approaches Short-Term Resistance, Market Needs a Genuine Breakthrough
$BTC has returned to around $78,500, rising about 2.4% in 24 hours and about 1.2% in the last 4 hours, not far from the intraday high near $78,800.
The positive aspect of this round of gains is that BTC, after finding support near $76,500, did not continue downward to seek support but returned to near the intraday high. Trading activity is also close to recent average levels, indicating the rebound is not entirely driven by low liquidity.
However, the $78,800–$80,000 range remains a pressure zone that must be faced. If BTC can break through and hold above this level with volume, it will be a significant signal.🟠 A Corporate Treasury Is Choosing BTC Over Alts
Japan’s Remixpoint sold its $ETH , $SOL ,$XRP and $DOGE, leaving about 1,506 BTC as its only crypto holding.
I don’t see this as proof that altcoins are finished. To me, it shows where corporate conviction is strongest right now.
BTC still offers deeper liquidity and wider institutional acceptance, especially when markets get uncertain.
The bigger question is whether other companies make the same choice.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops Gold and BTC: Uptrends Seem Synchronized, Downtrends Reveal Resilience Gap
During market upswings, Bitcoin $BTC and Gold move almost in sync, like partners side by side; however, when a pullback occurs, the difference in their downside resilience becomes fully apparent.
Today, Gold fell to a three-week low, and $BTC also reversed from above 78,400, currently oscillating around 76,500. In the past 24 hours, BTC dropped nearly 2%, with a low of 76,260; Gold is priced around $4,300, down 0.6% intraday.
The trigger comes from the US Treasury market: the 10-year Treasury yield surged to around 4.81%, and the US dollar rebounded to a two-week high. Rising yields strengthen the dollar, putting pressure on the non-yielding asset Gold first, while also suppressing overall market risk appetite, accelerating capital outflows from the crypto market.
In the past 30 days, the correlation between BTC and Gold reached as high as 0.8. High correlation only indicates similar directions in price movements, not equal intensity in pullbacks.
In this round of correction, BTC has performed significantly weaker than Gold, reaffirming that Bitcoin remains a high-volatility risk asset and cannot be simply regarded as "digital gold" directly comparable to precious metals.
Short-term trading reference:
✅ Long conditions: On the 15-minute chart, reclaiming and holding above 76,900, with a pullback not breaking 76,750, can try going long targeting 77,400–77,900; if it decisively breaks below 76,500, the long logic fails.
✅ Short conditions: Directly breaking below the 76,260 support, with a rebound failing to recover 76,450, can try going short targeting 75,800–75,300 The crypto market is showing an interesting tug-of-war. $BTC has pulled back toward the $78K area, while $ETH is showing relatively stronger momentum. That divergence is worth watching because it can reveal where market strength is actually building. The macro backdrop remains challenging. Rising crude oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields are bringing rate-hike concerns back into focus, keeping pressure on risk assets. At the same time, continued spot ETF inflows are helping provide a cushion and🟠 BUSINESSES ARE PRIORITIZING BTC
Remixpoint (Japan) has sold $ETH, $SOL, $XRP, and $DOGE, holding only about 1,506 BTC as their sole crypto asset.
I do not see this as a signal of altcoins ending. It reflects where business confidence is focused: $BTC has deep liquidity, broader institutional acceptance, and is more suitable amid rising uncertainty.
A notable question: will other businesses follow this choice?
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC
Corporate capital flows may continue to strengthen BTC's position.!🛢️Commodity Flash News｜International oil prices surge sharply, Brent crude hits highest since June 3
Geopolitical conflicts continue to escalate, combined with OPEC+ production cuts support, international oil prices have surged strongly again, with Brent crude reaching a new high since June 3.
This round has risen steadily from around 85, with an increase of nearly 8 dollars. The bullish momentum is fierce, but the key resistance levels above have been repeatedly tested without effective breakthroughs. After the CME lowered contract thresholds, retail funds actively entered the market to speculate, but large holders have gradually started to cash out at high levels.
Technically, the bullish structure remains intact, with SAR, EMA21, and EMA55 all providing support below the price; RSI-6 is close to the overbought zone but has not yet entered extreme overheating. If the new high position cannot hold, a pullback to around 90 for consolidation and digestion is a more probable scenario.
It is worth noting that the continuous rise in oil prices will raise inflation expectations again, directly constraining the Federal Reserve's policy path. The upcoming non-farm payroll data is particularly critical: strong employment data combined with high oil prices will further strengthen rate hike expectations, creating dual pressure on the stock market, $BTC, and other risk assets.
Crude oil is driven by multiple variables including geopolitics, inventories, and the dollar, making its logic far more complex than the crypto market. Surging is easy, but exiting fully is difficult. Avoid blindly chasing highs at elevated levels and prioritize position risk control.The crypto market is showing a fairly clear picture: capital has not completely left the market, but there is a strong divergence among asset groups. In the current OKX ranking snapshot, the group with the sharpest declines spans from DeFi, blockchain infrastructure, AI, meme tokens to new tokens. Notably, the decline is not only seen in small-cap coins but also some assets with significant liquidity are under pressure. This is more important than a simple price drop figure, as it indicates the market is multi-Trump's rallying call: Believe it or not, the stock market will rise🔥
Latest news on September 3, Trump publicly voiced support for the market.
He stated that the stock market has not been impacted and could have been even higher, bluntly saying: Believe it or not, the stock market will rise.
This statement also stirred sentiment in the crypto market, with mainstream coins like BTC, ETH, and TRUMP (Trump Coin) experiencing emotional fluctuations. Trump Coin itself is a meme coin highly tied to personal expectations, with news-driven surges and crashes being particularly intense, making it highly speculative.
However, optimistic verbal calls are unlikely to directly rewrite the current macro reality.
The market is currently under multiple pressures: rising US Treasury yields, high and volatile oil prices, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and the crypto market just experienced a massive $369 million liquidation, causing severe volatility in risk assets.
The real driver of market direction remains the upcoming non-farm payroll data.
If the non-farm employment data is strong, the probability of a rate hike in September remains high, and tightening liquidity expectations will suppress both US stocks and the entire crypto market; mere emotional calls cannot offset the bearish factors;
If employment data weakens, easing expectations will rise, giving risk assets real upward momentum.
Political statements can temporarily boost market sentiment but cannot counteract data and liquidity cycles. Especially for meme coins, news comes and goes quickly; do not blindly rush into the market driven by short-term hype. During key data windows, position management and preparing trading plans in advance are far more important than gambling on news.
#特朗普称通胀迎来好消息 The world's largest gold ETF increased its holdings by about 9.98 tons yesterday, raising its position to 1056.62 tons; gold also rebounded from around 4330 to above 4450, with risk aversion clearly intensifying. Meanwhile, the Dutch central bank transferred about 86 tons of gold to London, mainly to adjust reserve locations and improve liquidity, not as a new purchase. In the short term, options hedging may amplify gold price volatility. Tonight's non-farm payrolls are the key variable: weak employment → gold benefits; strong data → the dollar and US Treasury yields may suppress gold prices. 📌 Gold remains strong, but beware of sharp fluctuations before the non-farm payrolls. #BTC #GoldETF #NonFarm #GoldCan Trump's words be trusted? "The stock market will rise." The market reacted quickly but with differentiated impacts, and overall did not reverse the complex pattern dominated by geopolitical conflicts and inflation concerns.
After the statement, futures rebounded, and the three major U.S. stock indices closed higher that day: the Dow rose 0.56%, the S&P 500 rose 0.46%, but the gains were moderate and mainly driven by strong sectors like AI. There was a clear divergence between bulls and bears: some traders saw it as a bullish signal, while more were worried about energy costs and policy uncertainty.
In commodities and bonds, WTI crude oil, which surged about 9% in the previous three days, stabilized near $91, while Brent fell below $96. The market interpreted the statement that "it won't last long" as a signal that the conflict might ease, and the geopolitical premium declined somewhat. However, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained high at 4.76%, the 2-year at 4.35%, and the probability of a Fed rate hike in September rose to 60.2%, continuing to suppress risk assets. The dollar index strengthened in tandem, supported by ongoing geopolitical safe-haven buying.
Personally, I think the short-term rhetoric injected an emotional boost into the stock market but did not change the market's core contradictions— inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical risks remain the dominant forces. Smart money may use such statements to cause short-term fluctuations, but what truly determines the trend is always the macro fundamentals. For ordinary traders, rather than chasing rhetoric, it is better to stick to their own risk control discipline. $TRUMP #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 The pre-market today is very strong, with gold, US stocks, and Bitcoin all rising. It seems to be because of Waller's recent statement.
Waller said whether to support a rate hike in September will depend on the August CPI data released next Friday.
This effectively changes Waller's baseline at the Jackson Hole meeting from "hike rates unless the data is good enough" to "no hike unless the data is hot enough." Following his speech, the CME probability of a September rate hike dropped by ten percentage points to 50.4%.
According to the logic that gold prices rise when the rate hike probability falls and fall when it rises, the recent gold price surge is pricing in this 10% drop in the rate hike probability.
In other words, the previous price of 4280 might be the lowest point of this pullback. If tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls, next week's CPI, or even the 9.16 FOMC meeting bring prices close to this level again, be ready to jump back in.
Moreover, after gold's recent rise, the yields on US Treasuries for 2, 10, and 30 years all showed a significant decline. If yields rebound, today's sharp jump might still be retraced $XAUT #30-year US Treasury yield stays above 5% for 41 consecutive days
This is more worth watching than oil prices.
This round of long-term rate hikes is not driven by a single factor; three forces are pushing simultaneously.
Market expectations for a September rate hike have already reached over 62%. Powell hawked at Jackson Hole, and rate expectations are on an upward trajectory. US debt has surpassed 40 trillion, long-term bond supply is still expanding, the bond market is oversupplied, prices are pressured down, and yields are pushed up. Oil prices have returned above $90, and inflation expectations are rising again.
Biden is indeed trying to manage this—expanding long-term bond repurchases and using cash from the TGA account to buy back old bonds. But the essence of this operation is exchanging cash for old bonds, not increasing market liquidity; it can only ease volatility, not suppress yields.
For the crypto space, this impact is more lasting than oil prices.
Oil price increases are a short-term shock; high US Treasury yields are a long-term constraint. A 30-year yield above 5% means the risk-free rate is already high enough, and institutional appetite for risk assets will be continuously suppressed. For Bitcoin to move up from 78,000, liquidity expectations need to improve, money needs to increase, not become more expensive. Without easing in the high interest rate environment, Bitcoin’s valuation ceiling is capped there.
High interest rates suppress valuation, not narrative. If the CLARITY Act passes on September 15, the regulatory framework benefits will offset some macro headwinds. At this point, short-term pressure is a fact, but the overall direction hasn’t changed.
Just wait and see.
What do you think?
$BTC The world's largest gold ETF increased its holdings by about 9.98 tons in a single day, with total holdings rising back to 1056.62 tons; the Dutch central bank recently adjusted the storage location of its gold to enhance allocation capabilities during crises, not to increase gold purchases. Gold prices rebounded from around 4330 to above 4450, with short-term volatility significantly amplified. Goldman Sachs warns that dynamic hedging by options market makers may amplify price swings, so caution is needed when chasing highs or lows. On the macro front, the US dollar and US Treasury yields remain short-term pressures on gold, but central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and safe-haven demand continue to provide support. Tonight's non-farm payrolls will be a key catalyst: cooling employment may benefit gold, while strong data could lead to a pullback. 📌 Also pay attention to $BTC: if safe-haven funds continue to flow into gold, whether BTC can hold steady in the short term will become a market focus. #BTCHighVolatility #GoldETFIncrease #NonFarmPayrolls #SafeHavenAssets Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports dropped to 3 million barrels per day in August, the lowest in nine years. It's not that they don't want to sell, but no one dares to transport it. The Red Sea ports are under threat, oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz have been bombed, and going around Africa means traveling thousands of extra nautical miles, all costs factored into the oil price.
Brent crude surged back above 95 this week. With oil prices rising like this, inflation can't be suppressed, the Federal Reserve can't ease up, and risky assets like BTC always take the hit first. The Middle East has been turbulent before, but this time the supply is truly cut off. Whether the market makes sense or not, let's first see how long this oil price momentum can last. #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 $BTC $EWT Market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September have risen to about 70%. Under this pressure, Bitcoin slightly pulled back but successfully held the key support level at 76,600 USD, then rebounded to the high range around 77,000 USD.
On-chain cost basis data shows a large amount of new supply formed in the 75,000 to 80,000 USD range, providing strong support for the market bottom; 80,000 to 82,500 USD is the current major resistance concentration area. A daily close above 82,500 USD with a successful retest will be a key signal of supply clearing. Regarding ETF flows, US spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about 3.5 billion USD in August, but September started with two-way flows, with a single-day net outflow of about 237 million USD on Tuesday, and retail activity has also cooled down. On the downside risk, if the daily close falls below 76,600 USD, and ETF flows, Coinbase premium, and 7-day net realized P&L all weaken simultaneously, it will be considered a clear warning signal. This Friday's nonfarm payroll data is the next important macro test point; if the data is hot, it will strengthen rate hike expectations, and the 76,600 USD support may come under pressure again #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, ADP collapsed first.
The just-released data shows that US ADP employment in August increased by only 38,000, below the expected 47,000, hitting a new low since January this year. Manufacturing decreased by 17,000, professional business services decreased by 16,000, with large enterprises bearing the brunt while small and medium enterprises basically stayed flat.
However, the probability of a rate hike hasn't dropped much. CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September remains around 62%. The cooling ADP data didn't ease the market; oil prices returning to $90 and high US Treasury yields actually keep rate hike expectations supported.
Moreover, the previously released non-farm payrolls for May and June have been cumulatively revised down by 103,000, and July even decreased by 23,000. Reuters surveys expect August non-farm payrolls to increase by 56,000-58,000, with the unemployment rate continuing at 4.1%.
The key is: if non-farm payrolls exceed 100,000, rate hike expectations will continue to rise, and below 75,000 might still be tested; if non-farm payrolls are close to 50,000, expectations cool down, and BTC might actually catch a breather.
$BTC has been sideways at 77,000 for three days; let's wait until the data is out at 8:30 PM before making moves. No rush.
#FOMC last set of data before: this Friday's non-farm payrolls
#30年期美债收益率连续41天站上5% Trump says "The stock market will rise," but will the market really buy it? ⚠️
In the early hours of September 3, Trump made a new statement: the stock market has not been affected and might even be higher than it is now. "Believe it or not, the stock market will rise."
The president personally stepped in to boost market confidence. This sounds encouraging, but the current market situation is not that simple.
At the same time as his statement, the crypto market just experienced a massive liquidation exceeding $369 million, with BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL all under pressure. Oil prices surged, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and geopolitical tensions remain high, so macroeconomic pressures have not eased at all.
Trump's words are more of an emotional appeal; the real market direction will be determined by the upcoming non-farm payroll data.
If non-farm payrolls are strong, the probability of a rate hike in September is as high as 66%, and expectations of liquidity tightening will directly suppress both the stock and crypto markets. The president's words won't stop capital flight; if non-farm payrolls are weak, easing expectations will revive, giving risk assets a real chance to recover.
Historical experience tells us that political rhetoric can influence sentiment in the short term but cannot change macro trends. September itself is a seasonally weak month for U.S. stocks, and both Goldman Sachs and Castle Securities have warned of a tactical downside window.
Don't blindly chase highs just because of a statement that "the stock market will rise." Before the data is released, controlling position sizes and preparing contingency plans is the safest choice. #30-year US Treasury yield stays above 5% for 41 consecutive days
The leader has something to say
Holding long positions on Bitcoin at an average price of 78,200. Buying at this level is a bet on a recovery after the first round of negative factors has been hammered down. The 30-year US Treasury yield is at 5.25%, oil prices above 90, Japanese government bonds breaking 3%—these negative factors have already been hammered once.
The logic for the long positions remains unchanged. Geopolitical and interest rate negatives are being digested, Bitcoin's correlation with gold is rising, and funds are shifting towards non-sovereign assets. Plus, last week saw a net inflow of 3.5 billion into ETFs, institutions are buying.
Stop loss set at 75,000, the lower edge of the daily chart's dense chip area. Target is 80,500 to 81,000, with a favorable risk-reward ratio.
Control your position size well, do not add positions at this level, wait for the price to reach a key level before deciding. $BTC $ETH $SOL #
The above analysis is time-sensitive, stop losses must be set properly, good luck.Waller is starting to soften his stance, signaling a policy turning point. Let's first see what he actually said. Inflation finally shows signs of easing, CPI is expected to remain at a reasonable level, and he is willing to wait patiently and observe — the definition of "overheating" is left to the market. The entire set of remarks is converging in the same direction, clearly distancing from Waller's previously tough tone on rate hikes. Back to the market, BTC is fluctuating around 77800, ETH aU.S. Treasury yields at 5% have been earning passively for 41 days! Money in the crypto world is being "legally robbed," is it a win if $BTC (Bitcoin) doesn't drop?
Brothers, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has stayed above 5% for 41 consecutive days. What does that mean? You do nothing, buy U.S. Treasuries, and earn 5% passively in a year, steady as an old dog. Now look at the crypto world, $BTC (Bitcoin) is flat as a line, altcoins keep slipping down, who would you choose?
This is the fundamental reason why the crypto market has been half-dead recently. Money is smart; it flows where risk is low and returns are high. With a 5% risk-free return on the table, institutions and whales are buying bonds. Who’s left to pump the market? Liquidity is drained; $BTC holding without crashing is already tough, and $ETH (Ethereum) is even worse—gas fees are ridiculously low, exchange rates weak, completely powerless to fight back.
CPI data now feels like a supporting actor because Treasury yields have already maxed out expectations: sticky inflation, rate cuts far away. As long as this 5% doesn’t bow down, the crypto market won’t see a big rally. When hotspots like $SOL (Solana) retreat, it’s naked swimming; $BNB (Binance Coin) can barely defend with buybacks; as for $DOGE and $PEPE, they’re just cannon fodder under a blood-sucking machine.
So don’t go against macro trends. Why are Treasury yields so high? The market is forcing the Fed not to mess around. When the yield curve turns, then we can talk bull market. For now, staying alive is more important than getting rich quick.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#30年期美债收益率连续41天站上5% #The last set of data before FOMC: Nonfarm payrolls at 206,000 this Friday! US initial jobless claims exceed expectations, is the "crack" in the labor market paving the way for rate cuts or ringing the recession alarm?
The latest data released by the US Department of Labor shows that initial jobless claims last week were 206,000, higher than the market expectation of 205,000. Although the excess is only 1,000, which is almost negligible statistically, at this highly sensitive moment, any marginal change in the labor market is scrutinized under a magnifying glass by the market. This is not just a data fluctuation; it affects the Federal Reserve's decision balance for the September meeting, the pricing logic of global risk assets, and is the core question all market participants in Bitcoin, crude oil, US stocks, and others are asking: Is the US economy on the path of a soft landing or sliding toward a recession cliff?
1. 206,000: Small number, significant signal
First, clarify a basic fact: 206,000 initial jobless claims is still at a very low level historically. The average over the past fifty years is about 350,000 to 400,000, it surged above 600,000 during the 2008 financial crisis, and even exceeded 6 million during the 2020 pandemic. Therefore, from an absolute value perspective, the US labor market can still be described as "robust" or even "tight."
However, market sensitivity is never about absolute levels but about marginal changes and trend directions. In recent months, initial claims have slowly risen from below 200,000, gradually crossing the 200,000 threshold, and have been fluctuating around 205,000 in recent weeks. This "low-level plateau and slow rise" trend is one of the earliest signals of the labor market shifting from overheating to moderate cooling.
More notably, continuing claims have been rising for several consecutive weeks, indicating increasing difficulty for the unemployed to find new jobs. Slowing hiring and fewer job openings mean workers remain unemployed longer after losing jobs. This structural marginal deterioration is more concerning than the small weekly initial claims fluctuation.
2. The Fed's policy dilemma: Are conditions ripe for rate cuts?
Federal Reserve Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium was interpreted by the market as "principally dovish but vague on details." He acknowledged progress on inflation and that the labor market is no longer overheated but refused to provide a specific timeline for rate cuts. This initial claims data footnotes the Fed's hesitation: on one hand, the labor market is indeed cooling, supporting rate cut rationale; on the other hand, the pace is not fast enough to compel immediate Fed action.
From the Fed's dual mandate perspective, the balance between inflation and employment is recalibrating. Core PCE has stabilized, inflation pressures have eased significantly; the labor market remains healthy but marginal trends are slowly drifting toward "unhealthy." If initial claims continue rising in the coming weeks, breaking 210,000 or even 220,000, the case for a September rate cut will strengthen. Conversely, if data stabilizes around 200,000, the Fed may prefer to wait longer.
For the market, this "waiting" is itself agonizing. Bitcoin's repeated tug-of-war around $80,000, crude oil's weak oscillation near $70, and US stocks' hesitation at highs all reflect the same logic: the market has priced in rate cut expectations, but the Fed's actual moves lag behind. This mismatch between expectation and reality gives every economic data an outsized "directional" significance.
3. Dual interpretation for risk assets: rate cut dividend vs recession shadow
Rising initial jobless claims are a double-edged sword for risk assets.
The positive side: weakening employment data strengthens rate cut expectations. Rate cuts mean improved dollar liquidity, lower real interest rates, and increased risk appetite. For Bitcoin, an asset extremely sensitive to liquidity, the start of a rate cut cycle is usually a major positive. For US stocks, lower discount rates help support valuations. From this perspective, the 206,000 data actually provides bulls with a "bad news is good news" trading logic.
The negative side: if labor market deterioration exceeds expectations, the market may switch from a "rate cut trade" to a "recession trade." When investors truly fear recession, risk assets face indiscriminate sell-offs, with Bitcoin and US stocks no exception. Then, the liquidity dividend from rate cuts is offset by profit declines and risk aversion. This switch often happens instantly, catching bulls off guard.
Currently, the market is in a fuzzy zone between these two narratives. The change from 205,000 to 206,000 initial claims is not enough to trigger a "recession trade" alarm but loosens confidence in the "rate cut trade." This ambiguous state makes the market prone to violent swings and directional reversals.
4. Transmission path to BTC: marginal changes in liquidity expectations
Bitcoin's market reaction to this data ultimately boils down to changes in liquidity expectations.
If initial claims continue to rise moderately, market confidence in a September rate cut strengthens, and BTC may see a "pre-expectation fulfillment" rally before the cut. However, note that BTC's multiple failures near $80,000 have proven that mere rate cut expectations are insufficient to push prices decisively higher; actual liquidity injections and incremental capital inflows are necessary. Last week's $1.92 billion net inflow into US spot BTC ETFs is positive but its sustainability remains uncertain.
On the other hand, if initial claims continue to exceed expectations and the market prices in recession risk, BTC's "digital gold" attribute may play a role temporarily, but historical experience shows that in true liquidity crises, Bitcoin behaves more like a risk asset than a safe haven. This means BTC faces downside pressure under a recession trade.
Therefore, for $BTC and $ETH investors, the 206,000 initial claims figure itself is not important; what matters is the trend it initiates. If data continues to exceed expectations in the next two weeks, BTC will likely remain in wide-range oscillation before the September FOMC meeting, with direction leaning toward waiting for the rate cut before breaking out. If data stabilizes or falls back, BTC may lose an important bullish catalyst and return to a slow decline channel. I took a look at Alea's data.
There are 26 yield-bearing stablecoin products totaling 21.4 billion,
Sky, BlackRock, and Circle directly take half.
sUSDS, BUIDL, USYC, the top three account for 53%.
The remaining 23 are scrambling for the leftovers.
The excitement is real, but decentralization is fake.
This market isn't about who can talk yields better,
it's about who is stable enough, experienced enough, and whose money dares to go in.
It's hard for latecomers to get a share. $USDC $CRCL
# $CL WTI crude oil hits resistance at 93, hesitation begins after the rally🔥
Rising from 85 all the way to 93, the price surged nearly 8 dollars in a short rally. Ongoing geopolitical conflicts combined with OPEC+ production cut expectations provide strong fundamental support for oil prices, but the resistance at 93 has been tested multiple times without a successful breakthrough.
After the CME lowered contract thresholds, a large influx of retail funds entered the market to speculate. Interestingly, while retail investors are pushing up, large players have gradually started to take profits and exit at the highs.
From a technical perspective, the bullish structure remains intact. SAR supports at 89.52, EMA21 (88.89) and EMA55 (86.45) are all firmly beneath; RSI-6 is at 79.43, approaching overbought but not yet in the extreme zone.
Repeated rejection at 93 suggests that if the price fails to break higher, a pullback to around 90 for consolidation and digestion is the more likely scenario.
Many people tend to apply crypto market thinking to crude oil, but the two have completely different logics.
Crude oil is influenced simultaneously by geopolitical conflicts, inventory data, and the strength of the dollar, with variables far more complex than BTC. It's easy to jump in on a rally, but exiting unscathed requires strong discipline.