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This comparison chart of $CORE, which is going viral in the community, is creating illusions for many people.
It directly places CORE alongside $BTC and $ETH to compete on potential, wildly hyping the grand BTCFi narrative and painting a picture of high returns.
Yet it deliberately erases all the bloody realities currently unfolding.
Code vulnerabilities have led to the accidental minting of hundreds of millions of tokens, the benchmark DEX ecosystem has crashed and become inaccessible, and exchanges are still locking transfer channels during deposit maintenance.
These ongoing crises are completely absent from the promotional chart.
BTC has built consensus through more than a decade of life-and-death trials, ETH has firmly established itself with a multi-million-level ecosystem.
No matter how glamorous the narrative packaging is, it cannot cover up the widespread vulnerabilities the project currently faces.
Many people focus on the profits shown in the chart and ignore the imminent risk of sell pressure.
No matter how beautiful the story, it cannot withstand the upcoming chip liquidation.
The real test of all narratives will be when the deposit channel opens at 11 o'clock.According to the latest market pricing, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September has risen to 66%–70%. Following hawkish signals from Walsh and the Jackson Hole annual meeting, Bullard added another warning on Tuesday: if inflation does not show substantial decline, he will support another rate hike. The CPI report released on September 11 will be the final verdict, and funds have already begun adjusting positions in advance.
Last night, Bitcoin fell below the $77,000 mark, hitting a low of $76,500. The US dollar index continues to strengthen, oil prices remain above $90, Middle East geopolitical risks have not eased, and multiple negative factors are stacking up. The "September curse" effect is becoming apparent. Historical data shows BTC typically drops about 3% in September, and seasonal weakness should not be ignored.
Key ranges
· Support: 76,000–76,500; if broken, watch the 73,700–75,100 area below
· Resistance: 79,400–80,100
Personal strategy
Continue holding the base position; absolutely no active adding at this stage. Patiently wait for the CPI release or for a low-volume stabilization signal near $76,000 before considering the next move.
With rising rate hike expectations combined with seasonal weakness, the risk-reward ratio for heavy bets on a one-sided market is extremely low. Maintaining a wait-and-see approach and patience is more prudent.
$SOL $ETH $BTC
#21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 Today's market is very dull: $BTC is stuck at 77,200, with both bulls and bears unwilling to increase their positions. After the short sellers were squeezed out in August, leverage has decreased and volatility has also lessened. This kind of market is most feared for a sudden volume spike downward. Support levels are at 76,000 and 74,500, while resistance levels are at 78,500 and 81,000. The forecast for September looks more like a digestion month rather than a main rally month. You can keep your base positions and lighten your swing positions for now. Layer 2: The AI storage narrative is heating up at just the right time
The most exciting part of this rally is that Filecoin told a story that sends chills down the spine of traditional cloud service providers.
Amazon spent $54.2 billion on fixed assets in Q2 and raised its full-year capital expenditure forecast to $220 billion. Why? AI infrastructure is burning through money at an alarming rate. Even more intense, TrendForce predicts enterprise-grade SSD prices will surge 235% year-over-year by the end of the year, and server DRAM costs will soar 270%. By 2027, DRAM and NAND will account for 68% of cloud providers' hardware spending.
Filecoin directly calls out: my storage nodes have long been deployed, no need to wait for hardware delivery, no need to bear NAND inflation. Zero egress fees, the EU's 2027 ban on cloud switching fees—every point precisely hits the pain points of traditional cloud computing.
Additionally, Filecoin's strategic transformation in 2026: shifting from "storage and computing power mining" to a "programmable data cloud." The Onchain Cloud mainnet launch and the Solstice proposal shift incentives from "capacity supply" to "paid service demand." FIL is turning from an air coin into an asset with real demand—this is the confidence institutions have to enter the market. $FIL $SOL $BTC #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 In August, Bitcoin $BTC completed the strongest single-month rebound since 2026, rising from around $63,000 to above $81,000, an increase of about 25%, marking the strongest month since November 2024. Entering September, the price quickly retreated and fluctuated around $77,000, with the market shifting from "devaluation trades" to "macro stress testing." The current market does not resemble a typical retail FOMO top. Perpetual and futures open interest is about $38.6 billion, having decreased slightly over the past week, funding rates are neutral, and leverage is not crowded. August saw net inflows of about $3-3.5 billion into spot ETFs, the strongest month in nearly a year, and global BTC ETPs also recorded the strongest monthly inflows since November 2024; however, on September 1, there was a net outflow of about $236 million. Strategy $MSTR bought approximately 4,603 BTC again after two months. Institutional spot demand remains, short liquidations in August acted as an accelerator, but the structure is healthier than a pure leveraged bull market. The core logic behind August's rise rests on three pillars: first, devaluation trades, where the market interpreted the U.S. Treasury's expansion of long-term bond repos and use of TGA funds as suppressing long-term yields and implicit easing, with Bitcoin being reconsidered as a hedge against dollar credit and fiscal expansion; second, institutional spot inflows reversed previous retail-led outflows; third, large-scale short liquidations amplified upward momentum. These three pillars have not all broken down at the start of September, but one — macro liquidity expectations — is being repriced. Current[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
The main nonfarm payrolls dish hasn't been served yet, but the appetizer has already confused the market—hiring feels like squeezing toothpaste, job vacancies are as rigid as the Pharaoh's pyramids, salaries are scorching hot, and layoffs haven't collapsed. The job market is a twisted mess of "can't lie flat, can't compete hard."
Pharaoh lays it out straight: conflicting data means the Fed can't find solid proof to cut rates, so September rate hike expectations naturally heat up. If the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields get any stronger, BTC as an "emotion amplifier" will take two slaps first and won't be able to escape.
Tonight, what really decides life or death isn't the number of new jobs, but the unemployment rate, hourly wages, and previous data revisions trio:
· Explosive data, strong employment, hot wages—economy stubbornly resists high rates, rate hike expectations intensify, BTC obediently pulls back to support, bulls bleed first.
· Mild cooling, slight rise in unemployment, wage decline—congratulations, the "Goldilocks" scenario is here, inflation pressure eases, economy doesn't collapse, BTC seizes the chance to rebound to 80000, both bulls and bears can catch their breath.
· Sudden negative growth, soaring unemployment—first reaction: stop rate hikes! BTC rockets; but don't celebrate too soon, recession panic follows immediately, a full cycle of surge and plunge!
Pharaoh's piercing summary: data too strong fears rate hikes, too weak fears recession, only lukewarm is BTC's "comfort zone." Before nonfarm, hold your hands, avoid high leverage, the first candlestick is 90% a "fake rally," the second phase reveals the true face. Tonight, let's be spectators, not cannon fodder $BTC $ETH $SOL #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
This set of data makes the market even more interesting.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August dropped to 54.6, below July's 55.6, but still in expansion territory; JOLTS job openings rose slightly to 7.27 million.
This indicates the US economy is cooling down but is far from collapsing. What the market is really trading now are the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Currently, the market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate hike in September has risen to about 66%, making the non-farm payrolls report at 20:30 on September 4th very critical.
If non-farm payrolls remain strong and employment cooling is not obvious, rate hike expectations will continue to rise, strengthening the US dollar and Treasury yields, putting pressure on BTC and ETH, and tech stocks in the US stock market should also be cautious.
If non-farm payrolls weaken significantly, the market will reprice easing expectations, leading to declines in the US dollar and Treasury yields, which could allow $BTC and $ETH to rebound, and US tech stocks like $SNDK may also strengthen again.
My personal judgment:
In the short term, BTC and ETH are expected to be volatile and bearish, US stocks will fluctuate at high levels, and I will not chase the rally.
But we cannot rely solely on the ISM to be bullish or bearish; the real direction depends on the non-farm payrolls.
Strong non-farm payrolls—risk assets under pressure; weak non-farm payrolls—BTC, ETH, and US stocks rebound.
September 4th will reveal the outcome.
Personal opinion for reference only, not investment advice. ETF FLOWS ARE SHIFTING
Altseason remains unconfirmed, but ETF data shows changing capital allocation.
On Aug. 31:
$BTC: +$216.7M — IBIT +$205.9M
$ETH: +$87.6M — ETHA +$59.9M
$SOL: +$0.9M
$XRP: +$5.6M
$HYPE: largely flat
I’m watching:
$ETH → ETF flows + ETH/BTC
$SOL → inflows + momentum
$XRP → institutional demand
$HYPE → relative strength
$OKB → ecosystem strength + price structure
With $BTC around $77K–$79K, capital is becoming more selective. Follow the flows before chasing Altseason. $BTC There is a lot of hidden information behind this set of data. After analysis, I believe there might be a major market movement coming up.
Currently, monitoring data shows short positions hold $4.98 billion, while long positions hold $4.475 billion.
Data-wise, shorts are more numerous and hold the advantage, but the shorts as a whole have already lost $333 million.
In other words, the short positions are larger, but they are the losing side.
Interestingly, the funding fees paid by shorts have accumulated to $69.41 million, while longs have paid $44.48 million. This imbalance indicates that a significant portion of the whales holding long positions have already taken profits, while a considerable portion of shorts are still enduring losses.
This is what I think we need to be cautious about.
Because the shorts have not conceded defeat, and judging by the margin, shorts are leveraged about 6x, whereas longs are leveraged even higher at 8x.
This means it is very difficult to liquidate the short whales.
Not only do they face the challenge of pushing prices up to free positions trapped above 126,000, but the capital required here is especially large.
Conversely, longs are under greater pressure currently. First, the whales overall carry higher leverage risk, and the funding fees are continuously eating into their margin. Additionally, macro news in September is mostly bearish.
Therefore, when funding fees remain high, the risk of holding long positions long-term is significant.
Shorting, however, has the advantage of trading time for space.
The logic is simple: I am bullish in the long term, but is it that easy to rise?
Can MicroStrategy still pull out tens of billions to buy coins? Will miners change their zero-holding strategy? Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates?
Overall, neither the funding situation nor policy conditions have reached the threshold to start a bull market.
So, as long as margin is sufficient, the income from funding fees is much more attractive than bank interest.
Also, I really want to ask the current longs: your funding fees are flowing out every day, prices aren’t going up, and the market clearly shows it’s not letting you off easily—aren’t you nervous?Trump mentioned Iran again, but what BTC should really fear might not be war.
Trump's latest statement says the Iranian regime is collapsing and is preparing to strike again in the future, while emphasizing that the U.S. has full control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Many people's first reaction is: geopolitical conflict escalates, BTC will drop.
But I actually think what really needs attention is the chain of oil prices → inflation → the Federal Reserve.
If the Strait of Hormuz experiences sustained disruption, it will affect not only crude oil prices.
Energy costs rise, inflation expectations may rise again.
And the market is already trading on a Federal Reserve policy shift.
If inflation becomes "unfavorable" again, the Fed's room to cut rates will be squeezed, or it may even release hawkish signals again, putting more pressure on risk assets than the war news itself.
So now when I look at BTC, I don't just focus on war news.
War is just the first layer, oil prices are the second layer, and the Federal Reserve is the third layer.
If oil prices spike and then quickly fall back, I think the market may soon trade away the war premium.
But if oil prices continue to rise, then it's a completely different matter.
This is also what worries me most now:
The real risk for BTC may not be risk-off sentiment, but inflation returning.
Will this Iran situation eventually evolve into the next round of macro pressure on BTC?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注 Bank of America, Citibank, Goldman Sachs, Fidelity, and 21 others jointly launch a USD stablecoin. It's a big lineup, but in the short term, it's just switching to a different track to compete. They mainly target compliant scenarios, cross-border, and institutional settlements, which are unrelated to my usual use. On-chain, I still use $USDT — deep liquidity pools, recognized everywhere, and trust built over ten years; you can't just copy it by issuing a coin. The bank coin won't really launch until 2027, and how they manage reserves is still uncertain. When it finally connects to exchanges and payments, that's when $USDT will need to worry. #21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 $BTC BTC's toughest opponent these days isn't some mysterious whale, but the cold 4.79% on the US Treasury yield curve. As of early morning Beijing time on September 3, OKX's BTC-USDT dipped to a low of $76,261 in the past 24 hours, then rebounded above $77,000. It looks like just a familiar round of volatility, but when you piece together the surrounding screens, the picture changes: On September 2, the US Treasury announced a 10-year bond yield of 4.79%, with 20- and 30-year yields reaching 5.27%; intraday, the 10-year yield once approached 4.82%. At the same time, geopolitical conflicts pushed Brent crude oil near $95, reigniting market fears that energy prices could spark both inflation and rate hike expectations. This transmission chain is very real for BTC. As bond yields rise, dollar funds can earn higher interest without any risk; financing costs also increase, prompting funds to first reduce their most volatile positions. BTC pays no interest and has no quarterly cash flow, so short-term holders can only rely on future price appreciation to offset holding costs. Therefore, even without negative news from the crypto industry itself, BTC could be dragged down by the global asset repricing. I do not agree with declaring "digital gold is invalid" because of this. The fixed supply and independence from any single sovereign have not suddenly disappeared. If long-term monetary credit continues to be diluted, BTC may still regain its safe-haven narrative. But at least in these few 4-hour candlesMany people analyze Bitcoin by only focusing on the Federal Reserve. But today, the global capital market alarm is sounding from Japan: the yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has surpassed 3%, reaching the highest level since 1996. Since 2026, Japanese investors have net sold about 3 trillion yen in overseas bonds, signaling the beginning of capital repatriation. Reuters reported—why might this affect BTC? In the past, a lot of international capital borrowed low-interest yen to buy U.S. Treasuries, stocks, and even crypto assets; this is known as the "yen carry trade." Now that Japanese interest rates are rising, the cost of borrowing yen increases. If the yen continues to appreciate, carry trade funds may be forced to unwind: Japanese interest rates rise → yen financing costs increase → leveraged funds withdraw → global liquidity tightens → BTC volatility amplifies. Three impacts on the crypto market: First, BTC faces short-term pressure. Bitcoin trades 24/7 with strong liquidity. When traditional markets need to quickly reduce risk, BTC often becomes one of the first assets to be sold. Second, altcoins may face greater risk. If the market enters a deleveraging phase, ETH, SOL, and small-to-mid cap tokens usually experience larger declines than BTC. Third, breaking 3% does not necessarily mean BTC will crash. The real danger is not a single number but whether Japanese capital continues to repatriate, whether the yen appreciates rapidly, and whether institutions begin to collectively reduce risk positions. Key points to watch next: Currently, BTC is still fluctuating around $77,000. I believe we need to watch three signals: BT BTC is hovering around 78K, but ETF data has quietly changed direction, so let's hold back the hype for altcoin season for now. Have you noticed that recently fewer people are talking about Altseason, yet the smart money's moves have become clearer? - The ETF numbers from the 31st of the month act like a mirror, reflecting the true preferences of capital: - BTC net inflow is 216.7 million, with IBIT alone accounting for 205.9 million; the big players remain the most stable anchor. - ETH net inflow is 87.6 million, with ETHA contributing 59.9 million; institutional buying of Ethereum is more solid than expected. - SOL only 900,000, XRP 5.6 million, HYPE nearly flat—these names are still waiting for a confirmation signal. When I watch the market, what I repeatedly filter in my mind is the strength ranking, not the rise or fall of a single coin. The ETF inflow of ETH and the ETH/BTC exchange rate trend are the pairs I care about most recently. If ETH can continuously attract funds while BTC stagnates at a high level, then a style rotation is possible. SOL has momentum but lacks incremental growth; it’s in a "liked but not yet proposed" state. XRP's institutional demand looks more like a base allocation rather than an offensive signal. HYPE's relative strength is worth noting, but liquidity is too thin, making it prone to false breakouts. OKB's ecosystem narrative and price structure are somewhat interesting, like a neglected middle layer. BTC is between 77K and 79K Core Risk Warning
1. The daily MACD death cross has been confirmed as the most critical technical signal: a major bear cycle has begun, and an immediate V-shaped reversal is unrealistic.
2. Each rebound peak is lower than the last: the strength of recovery is gradually weakening, and bears are slowly gaining control.
3. The US-Iran conflict plus US debt yield at 4.81% form a double negative: geopolitical risk and macro tightening resonate, keeping short-term risk appetite under pressure.
4. Friday's non-farm payroll data is the biggest variable: if employment exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations will be confirmed, and the market may drop another pit.
5. ETFs have turned to net outflows while open interest rises against the trend: bears are increasing positions, bulls are under pressure, and position dynamics in the next 12-24 hours are unfavorable for bullish outlook.
6. 76,000-76,432 is the short-term bull lifeline: if effectively broken, bears will accelerate targeting 75,000 or even 73,750 $BTC $ETH $SOL #21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 THE $BTC ETF STORY ISN’T AS SIMPLE AS +31%
Bitcoin ETFs attracted $3.52B in August, lifting total net assets from $76.29B to $99.61B. But most of that asset growth came from BTC’s price appreciation, not fresh capital.
The bigger signal: ETFs were still ~$1.77B net negative for 2026 after August. Then September opened with a $236.46M outflow, the largest since July 31.
So the real question for $BTC: was August accumulation, or distribution into strength?
#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds The small non-farm payrolls surprised to the downside, is a rate hike still expected?
1. Last night's small non-farm payroll data missed expectations, which cooled down the anticipation for a rate hike in September. The price of $BTC started to weaken yesterday, showing a downtrend on the hourly chart, while other major tokens also declined simultaneously, reaching recent lows. This is the market's expected reaction, but once the data was released, there was a rebound.
2. Small non-farm payrolls can serve as a reference for the big non-farm payrolls, but looking at this year's data, only two months showed positive feedback; most of the time the data diverged. The focus remains on the big non-farm payroll data on September 4.
3. Trading strategy: buy on dips. I plan to gradually increase my position to 80%-100%. The entire September is a month for adding positions. I firmly believe we are now at the bottom of the bear market and the beginning of a bull market.
4. $ETH watch 2330U, BTC 74.6K.
#NonFarmPayrollData #AddPositionETH 🍕 10,000 BTC for two pizzas, did he really lose out?
In 2010, Laszlo Hanyecz exchanged 10,000 BTC for two pizzas worth about $41.
Looking back today, this trade has almost become the most expensive "takeout" in crypto history.
But from another perspective, he did more than just buy pizzas.
He was the first to prove that BTC is not just code, but can truly be exchanged for real-world goods.
Later, everyone calculated how much those 10,000 BTC are worth today, but they overlooked a more important question:
If no one was willing to spend BTC back then, Bitcoin might not have gained its "currency" meaning today.
What’s truly worth remembering is not "how much wealth was missed," but:
"Early adopters are responsible for validating value, later ones for discovering value."
The market is the same.
Price is just the result; what truly determines an asset’s long-term value is whether it continuously generates real demand.
$BTC #Bitcoin #BTCThe recent adjustment of $OKB is essentially not due to any issues within its own ecosystem logic, but is completely influenced by the overall downward trend of $BTC. As a platform coin with an independent ecosystem catalyst path, its decline is more a result of systemic market sentiment transmission rather than a fundamental shift.
From the volume and price performance on the chart, OKB's volume has been continuously shrinking recently, with the overall trend mainly a gradual decline without panic selling on high volume, clearly indicating that the main exits are profit-taking from earlier accumulations rather than large funds fleeing at any cost, so the chip structure has not been completely destroyed.
The entire crypto market is currently waiting for key events: the upcoming non-farm payroll data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. Funds generally choose to hold coins and watch, not daring to push prices up rashly. $BTC is still probing the critical bottom level of 77,000. Against this backdrop, OKB naturally struggles to break out into an independent upward trend and can only grind down with the broader market to digest floating chips.
However, compared to the sharp corrections of many coins, $OKB's trend has already shown sufficient resilience. Even if BTC later truly hits the 77,000 bottom support, based on the current absorption strength, OKB's price range can remain stable without extreme breakdowns.
One detail worth noting is that recently OKB has started to show cross-exchange price differences, which directly indicates that the absorption power within OKX's market is very strong, and there is no consistent selling pressure. #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 ETF capital divergence, the market is undergoing internal portfolio adjustments
ETF capital flows show clear divergence. BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $236 million yesterday, with IBIT alone outflowing $201 million, marking two consecutive days of capital outflow. In contrast, other sectors show different trends: ETH ETF has maintained net inflows for 12 consecutive days, with a weekly inflow scale of $522 million; SOL ETF also has 10 consecutive days of capital inflow, with Bitwise holdings reaching 9 million SOL. Meanwhile, ZEC has been listed on the NYSE, and HYPE has been included in the Hashdex index ETF, gaining a 3.4% allocation weight.
From the capital movement perspective, BTC is under dual pressure from interest rate hike expectations and geopolitical conflicts, leading to short-term institutional capital outflows and market pressure. ETH continues to see institutional lock-up, with BitMine increasing holdings to 5.9 million ETH, accounting for 4.9% of circulating supply, indicating ongoing capital deployment. SOL's ETF keeps attracting funds, with Bitwise holdings nearing $1 billion, and on-chain network activity hitting record highs. ZEC's NYSE listing signals traditional capital's growing interest in privacy-focused sectors; HYPE ranks as the fifth largest holding in the index ETF, with institutional allocation expanding.
Overall, capital has not completely exited the market but is rotating among sectors. BTC is entering a consolidation phase, ETH is taking over the capital baton, and SOL, ZEC, and HYPE are simultaneously attracting capital attention. Interest rate hikes and geopolitical factors suppress Bitcoin's rebound, but quality altcoin leaders are seeing improving capital conditions. Market enthusiasm has not disappeared; only the trend has shifted. Operational focus should be on leading assets, positioning in quality leaders, and avoiding blind chasing of niche or low-quality tokens.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 $BTC
On Tuesday, September 1, BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $236.5 million, marking a return to net outflow after Monday's net inflow.
Among them, IBIT had a net outflow of $201.2 million, accounting for 82.2% of the single-day net outflow.
Single-day net outflows, such as last Friday, are very likely due to fund adjustments, especially when net inflows are overly concentrated in IBIT, increasing the likelihood of fund adjustments through a single channel.
Looking ahead, ETF flows on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday are crucial. If ETFs continue to experience net outflows, it means the current BTC price has lost major capital support.
Crypto market data:
Market capitalization changes show a significant increase in BTC's share, with market risk preference concentrated on BTC, indicating an overall cautious stance.
Trading volume has slightly increased, with the most notable change being a clear rise in ETH trading volume, indicating stronger turnover competition at this time.
In terms of funds, there was a net inflow of $400 million, with USDC seeing a net outflow of $303 million, and USDT still experiencing a small net outflow.
Summary for today:
The key focus going forward is the sustainability of one-way capital inflows. Whether it is ETFs or crypto funds, once sustained net inflows or net outflows occur, they become important factors that can change the short-term trend.
However, overall, whether it is ETFs or crypto funds, the situation has shifted from continuous net inflows last week to frequent switches between net inflows and net outflows this week. This indicates short-term bullish and bearish competition and a decline in market confidence. This week will be an important short-term window to determine direction! $BTC is holding relatively firm, but $ETH is losing momentum while some altcoins are ripping 30–40% and others are dropping 8–17%. That tells me one thing: capital is rotating aggressively, not entering everything. The key signal: BTC’s Open Interest is declining even as price holds up — a healthier sign that spot demand is doing more of the heavy lifting than leverage. Watch the next rotation closely. If BTC weakens while liquidity keeps flowing into selected alts, this could shift from accumul9.3｜BTC and ETH Early Session Thoughts
Today's trading idea is very clear: mainly short on rebounds at high levels, no chasing longs unless volume breaks above 80,000.
$BTC is currently consolidating around 77,100. It was pushed back after hitting 78,000 yesterday, with a low sweep to 76,200. The issue is not just the candlestick pattern but that selling pressure above 80,000 hasn't been fully absorbed. ADP only increased by 38,000, weaker than expected, but oil prices remain high and the probability of a rate hike in September is still above 60%. Soft employment data hasn't changed the hawkish pricing, so the price just can't rise. In this situation, if service sector data comes in hot, it could easily crash again.
$ETH is around 2,385, stuck just below 2,400, basically moving in sync with BTC.
The real variables tonight are the ISM services and initial jobless claims, with non-farm payrolls on Friday. If the service sector clearly shows strength (confirming inflation stickiness), BTC could retest 76,200 or even drop to 75,000 at any time.
Current trading plan:
BTC: Short between 77,600-78,600, target around 75,000-76,200.
ETH: Short between 2,420-2,480, target around 2,280-2,350.
If BTC breaks above 81,300 with volume, all shorts are invalidated; never stubbornly fight the trend.
What do you think? Before non-farm payrolls, will BTC first drop to 75,000 or directly rebound to 80,000?
#OKX星球话题来啦
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 ADP payroll came in at *52,000*, way under the forecast. Labor market is cooling, which in theory should push rate-cut bets higher and be a tailwind for risk assets. But the market didn’t just rip. We’re seeing clear divergence: *$BTC* is holding up better on dips. *$ETH* is more volatile — bounces harder, but also dumps faster. *Why the split:* Two opposing forces are fighting right now. 1. *Cooling jobs data* → fuels expectations of rate cuts. 2. *Higher oil prices + geopolitical t$BTC has been hovering around 77,000 for several days, and the excitement from the August surge has cooled down. The price hasn't crashed, but there's no sign of a renewed push towards 80,000. On the macro side, rising oil prices and US Treasury yields have made risk assets cautious. I consider 76,000 as the short-term lifeline and 79,000 as the zone to reduce positions on a rebound. September will likely start with a weak consolidation, with a range of 75,000–80,000 expected by the end of the month. Position sizing is more important than predictions.I've recently been observing a shift: BTC used to have a very clear correlation with the US stock market, especially AI and tech stocks, but now that connection seems to be loosening, while its correlation with gold is becoming tighter.
SanDisk is the most obvious example. When BTC was pushing towards $80,000, SanDisk dropped sharply from around $1800 to about $1400. Although it has now bounced back to around $1560, BTC and ETH have been falling these past few days, showing a clearly different rhythm.
Looking at gold, BTC recently pulled back near $77,000, and gold also weakened in sync to around $4300, making their correlation more apparent.
But I think we shouldn't rush to say BTC has already become "digital gold."
Currently, BTC is looking at support between $75,000 and $77,000; only if it climbs back above $80,000 can it be considered to have regained strength. ETH is around $2440, with $2400 being a key level.
For gold, the focus is on whether it can hold around $4300; below that is $4200.
So my current judgment is: BTC is gradually detaching from the pure US stock risk asset logic but hasn't fully completed the switch to gold yet. 21 financial institutions plan to launch a US dollar stablecoin. How big is this really? Let's also talk about CPI and popular coins. Today, we won't use those fancy research report languages; we'll just talk plainly about a few things: 21 financial institutions want to launch a US dollar stablecoin, the impact of CPI data on the crypto world, and a rundown of the top thirty popular coins. --- 1. 21 financial institutions plan to launch a US dollar stablecoin. What signal does this send? Simply put—big players in traditional finance are officially entering the stablecoin market to grab a piece of the pie. Who used to dominate the stablecoin market? The two brothers USDT (Tether) and USDC (Circle) called the shots. Especially USDT, with a market cap of over 100 billion USD and profits so high it's shocking. Tether's annual earnings surpass many established Wall Street firms. Who wouldn't be envious of that money? Now, 21 financial institutions are joining forces to launch a "compliant US dollar stablecoin," and the meaning behind this is straightforward: First, to grab business. The essence of stablecoins is "you deposit dollars, I issue you dollar tokens on the blockchain," then use your dollars to buy US Treasuries and earn interest. This business is almost zero risk and guaranteed profit. Traditional financial institutions have licenses, compliance channels, and government connections. Their entry means they want a share of USDT's pie. Second, to pave the way for tokenization. These institutions are not just issuing a coin; they want to move stocks, bonds, and funds onto the blockchain. Stablecoins are the first and most fundamental step—on-chain transactions need "money," right? So first, they create their own stablecoin, and later...Today's Market Trend
Preconditions $ETH $BTC
Yesterday's ADP (Private Payrolls): Actual 38,000, Expected 48,000, data weaker than expected, signaling cooling employment; Historical statistics: When ADP is weak, the probability of nonfarm payrolls weakening simultaneously is about 60%; probability of nonfarm reversing strongly (significantly exceeding expectations) is 25%; probability of data fluctuating near expectations is 15%.
The market's consensus expectation for tonight's nonfarm payrolls: an increase of 55,000.
Three scenarios + probabilities + BTC market reaction
Scenario 1: Nonfarm < 55,000 (employment continues to weaken) | Estimated probability 60%
Logic: Both ADP and nonfarm weaken in resonance, market prices in earlier rate cut timing, USD and US Treasuries decline
Market script:
First short-term surge and spike; watch out for traps: if the market has already risen in advance during the day session, the actual release will be a profit-taking spike and pullback;
Only if the price has not been prematurely priced in, will there be sustained upward movement, bulls dominate.
Scenario 2: Nonfarm > 55,000 (data reverses and strengthens) | Estimated probability 25%
Logic: ADP weak, but official employment resilience exceeds expectations, rate cut expectations delayed, hawkish bias
Market script: USD rallies, BTC quickly dumps in short term, spike down breaking support, bull stop-loss cascade; extreme volatility, contracts suffer losses on both sides.
Scenario 3: Nonfarm just around expectations (45,000~65,000) | Estimated probability 15%
Logic: Neutral data, no change to the Fed's original judgment, no new direction #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验
BTC consolidates at 76,000, but is the real thunder at 3 PM?
Stop staring blankly at the price. The real critical moment today is at 3 PM, when the Bank of Japan announces its interest rate decision. The market expects no change, but if Kazuo Ueda unexpectedly takes a hawkish stance, the yen will immediately surge, and BTC, as a risk asset, will be instantly drained. The 76,000 support level will most likely not hold—directly dropping to 72,000.
Both bulls and bears are betting on this.
The bulls have their cards: ETFs have seen net inflows for 8 consecutive days, with another $120 million added last night. Institutions are determined to accumulate. But the bears are not weak either; Bitfinex large holders' lending rates have soared to an annualized 25%, clearly indicating some are borrowing coins to prepare for a dump. On-chain data is even clearer—between 73,500 and 74,200, there is a buy wall of over 42,000 BTC, which is the bulls' bottom line; while above 78,500, sell orders are piled up, making it impossible to break through.
The 76,000 level is where both sides are setting up their positions, waiting for the news to drop.
So which side are you on? The verdict comes at 3 PM. Place your bets in the comments, and we'll revisit later.#日本长债收益率升至高位 Japan's 20-year government bond yield has reached 2.38%, hitting a new high since the 2008 financial crisis.
The Bank of Japan is forced to accelerate the exit from the YCC policy, and the world's last source of "cheap money" is drying up.
This has an indirect but profound impact on the crypto market. Yen carry trades are an important channel for global liquidity supply. When Japanese bond yields rise, the arbitrage space for borrowing yen to buy US bonds or BTC is compressed. Funds will flow back, leverage will decrease, and liquidity will tighten.
BTC sideways movement and a slight drop in gold indicate the market has not fully priced in this long-term logic yet. But the Bank of Japan's actions are like "boiling a frog slowly"; it is not a one-time shock but a continuous, gradual liquidity withdrawal.
When the day comes that everyone suddenly realizes there is no money left in the market, it will be too late if BTC falls again.
Keep an eye on Japanese government bond yields; this indicator may be even more important than the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. $BTC $ETH US August ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6 from 55.6 in July, still above 50. July JOLTS openings were 7.27M, below the 7.31M consensus but up from June's revised 7.18M. The data are mixed: factory momentum slowed, but labor demand has not collapsed. CME pricing puts the chance of a 25bp September hike near 66%-66.9%. August payrolls arrive Sep 4 at 12:30 UTC. For BTC and equities, the key is whether the report reprices the dollar, Treasury yields and risk appetite.#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds 📊 **LIQUIDITY IS ROTATING.** $BTC slightly decreased while $ETH weakened, but many altcoins remain highly volatile, rising 30–40% and adjusting 8–17%. The market is not buying all at once — capital is being allocated very selectively. Notably, $BTC's Open Interest decreases as the price rises, indicating the current recovery momentum leans towards spot demand rather than leverage. Capital hasn't left crypto; it is just shifting. If $BTC loses support, the capital rotation could turn accumulation into distribution.$SNDK
Looking back at SanDisk's recent market movement, it basically matches the situations we analyzed multiple times before. The surge in August was nearly 80%, and many people directly assumed a major bull market had arrived. However, I have always thought this is not a new upward trend, but rather a rebound after a sharp drop. The price was driven up by speculation on AI storage themes, short-covering, and bottom-fishing funds rushing in, not because the fundamentals have been fully realized.
After the rise, the price failed to continue making new highs and got stuck oscillating between 1400 and 1600, which is a large consolidation box, indicating high-level volatility with suspicion of a downward continuation. Yesterday, the price peaked at 1609, hitting the upper resistance of the range, and was immediately pushed down. It has now fallen back to 1535, which clearly shows heavy selling pressure at 1600. Bulls tried several times but couldn't break through.
In the short term, it is very likely to continue grinding back and forth between 1400 and 1600. Don't expect a sharp drop immediately; the consolidation may last for a while, continuously shaking out positions. But the longer it stays at a high level, the greater the risk of breaking downwards. Currently, 1535 is in the middle of the box, which is the most dangerous position. Whether going long or short, stop losses are easily triggered back and forth here, so try to avoid trading in the middle.
🧣 The strategy is to honestly do high sell and low buy within the range.
For longs, wait until it drops near 1400 before considering entry. This is a key support with better cost performance. Place stop loss just slightly below 1400. If it truly breaks below this level, the box is broken and long positions should admit defeat and exit immediately. Do not stubbornly hold on.
For shorts, wait for a rebound near 1600 before entering. Yesterday’s 1609 was a very good short entry point, with a target near 1400 below. Do not expect to make huge profits trading inside the box.
Watch for two key changes going forward. If it breaks below 1400, the downward continuation pattern is confirmed, the consolidation ends, and you should give up the high sell low buy strategy and follow the bears.
Conversely, if it can firmly stand above 1600, then the bearish view is wrong and the market will strengthen again, though this possibility seems low at present.
There are also fundamental risks. Next quarter’s earnings guidance may fail to meet market expectations, and consumer business revenue continues to shrink. The big surge in August has already priced in some positive factors, so once market enthusiasm fades, the price will face correction pressure.
When trading SanDisk, strictly control position size and set stop losses. We lean bearish, but if the market actually breaks upward, be ready to change your view. Never go against the market; always follow the signals the market actually gives.When a company's shareholder equity is insufficient, the most straightforward solution is to make the business profitable. Alpha Modus chose a more provocative path: patching the balance sheet with 3,170 BTC while significantly diluting the original shareholders' stake. On August 26, the company signed agreements with 10 non-U.S. investors to issue 51.62 million common shares, accompanied by the same number of two-year warrants with an exercise price of $4.36; investors do not pay in dollars but deliver 3,170 BTC, with both parties valuing each BTC at $71,000, totaling approximately $225 million. Documents show the company had only about 4.99 million common shares before the transaction. The first batch of new shares alone is more than ten times the original share capital; if all warrants are exercised later, potential dilution will continue. The company says this batch of BTC can increase shareholder equity and help address Nasdaq's listing requirements. However, the market initially dropped the stock by about 29%. I find this reaction not mysterious at all: BTC can indeed quickly inflate the asset side, but accounting "growth" does not equal a sudden strengthening of operational capability. The new assets may fix the listing threshold but do not automatically create customers, revenue, or free cash flow; what original shareholders get is a stake more sensitive to both the core business and BTC price, but smaller in share. Conversely, this transaction cannot simply be called a giveaway. The company did not take on a large cash debt to buy the coins first; if the closingMacroeconomic projections are rather dull, so let's start with the viewpoint: A synchronized rate hike by the US and Japan in September is likely a high-probability event: 1. September is the window with the lowest cost for the US to raise rates; if not done, it could lead to the following three effects simultaneously: The US-Japan interest rate spread widens further, the yen continues to break down; Japan intervenes more aggressively to defend the exchange rate, in the worst case touching US Treasuries, which would in turn push up US long-term yields; A dollar shortage and carry trade positions get drained again, turning risk assets into a stampede rather than an orderly deleveraging. 2. What is more worrisome is not "both raising rates together," but "one raises while the other does not." The real market disruption comes from policy misalignment. If the US raises rates and Japan does not: the yen is most likely to depreciate further, with intervention and US Treasury selling pressure occurring simultaneously—this is the dirty path that synchronized rate hikes aim to avoid. If the Fed holds steady in September and only Japan raises rates alone, there will not be a large inflow of Japanese funds into US Treasuries. Domestic Japanese institutions will reassess domestic versus foreign bond returns, and new funds will flow more back into Japan; only when the US-Japan interest rate spread remains high will existing US Treasury positions continue to be held, but US Treasuries will face the real pressure of weakening marginal buying power. From the perspective of US debt financing, a synchronized Fed rate hike maintaining the US-Japan interest rate spread is actually a more favorable path to preserve overseas demand for US Treasuries. Moreover, Japan now faces its own imported inflation and weak yen constraints, so it will no longer behave as before—where the US does nothing and Japan also remains still. Yesterday's ADP employment surprise combined with the US-Iran conflict pushing oil prices higher forms a "stagflation" mix, putting the Fed in a dilemma, and the market's view on SeptemberThe most glaring contradiction with Ethereum $ETH right now is not the price fluctuations, but that in its strongest usage year of 2026, the coin price has been stuck hovering around $2380. The spot price repeatedly rubs back and forth within a box between $2300 and $2550, unable to break above $2550, nor immediately breaking below $2200. It remains more than halved from the near $4950 high in August last year, and has retreated about 40% since the start of the year. Technically, the market is watching the 0.618 retracement line at $2438; holding above it leaves room to test $2550 and then $2920, while breaking below points to $2220 or even $2000. The market situation is not clean: on one side, a whale has opened about $45 million in 25x long positions, while on the other side, large amounts of ETH are being transferred into exchanges. Both bulls and bears are increasing their stakes simultaneously, indicating a very divided consensus; adding to this, US-Iran tensions are pushing up oil prices and US Treasury yields, putting overall risk assets under pressure, and short-term volatility could be hit by macro factors at any time. The truly interesting aspect lies in the capital structure. The US spot ETH ETF has seen net inflows for eleven to twelve consecutive trading days, with about $11 million net subscriptions on September 1. BlackRock-related products (including stakable structures) are leading, while Grayscale ETHE continues to see redemptions. The cumulative net inflow is roughly $1.2 to $1.3 billion, with AUM around $1.5 billion. In the same period, Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day outflow of about $240 million, and in the past week, in USD terms, ETH ETFs have even surpassed $BTC in capital inflows. Snowflake exploded! Is the AI software fire finally catching?
Last night Snowflake released its earnings report with impressive numbers: revenue of $1.55 billion, up 35% year-over-year, adjusted earnings per share of $0.62, while the market originally expected only $0.45. The most impressive was product revenue growth at 37%, accelerating for the third consecutive quarter. After hours, the stock price surged 22%.
What was said on the call? CEO Ramaswamy emphasized one key point: "AI is accelerating consumption on our core platform." In plain terms — customers using AI not only didn’t save on software costs but actually ran more workloads on Snowflake. Its AI programming tool CoCo surpassed 9,100 accounts, adding over 2,000 just this quarter. The CFO was even more direct: CoCo is the biggest driver behind the upward revision of the full-year guidance. Full-year product revenue guidance was raised from $5.84 billion to $6.07 billion.
Is capital flowing back into software? The market clearly shows it. Once Snowflake’s earnings came out, the entire SaaS sector reacted like it was energized. Previously, the market feared AI would "eat" software companies, but this earnings report directly contradicts that narrative — AI is not replacing software; it’s turning software into essential infrastructure for AI deployment.
In trading, the $370-$375 range is the upper edge of the post-earnings gap. If it holds here, the software rally could still have room to run. The logic of AI is spreading from hardware to software, and Snowflake has clearly paved the way this time. $SNOW $BTC Is September going to change the game? Golden September and Silver October?
At the end of August, it stubbornly stood above the 80,000 mark, making many think the bulls would run away with it. But once September came, the rise went silent, turning back down and getting stuck around 78,000, repeatedly tugging and wearing people out.
Don't blindly believe in the September curse! Historically, September often underperforms, but in the last three years, September has closed all in the green. Seasonal patterns can only be used as a reference; betting directly on rise or fall based on them will eventually lead to big losses.
Now, the market is showing some very interesting changes! The correlation between BTC and gold is deepening, with a 90-day correlation surpassing 50%, while the linkage with U.S. stock indices has significantly weakened. BTC is gradually shedding its risk asset label, and the narrative of digital gold is back on the table.
But macro headwinds are also hitting hard. U.S. Treasury yields are rising again, and the previous dividend from the Treasury's long bond buybacks has been completely digested.
Next comes the battle of two major outcomes:
Will BTC firmly establish itself as a scarce inflation-hedging asset alongside gold;
or will this high-level pullback be a harsh reality check, still unable to escape the suppression from interest rates, sentiment, and monthly effects.
There is no definite answer now. Do not subjectively bet on one side; patiently wait for the market to provide the final answer.
#BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 The just-released ADP employment figure is only 38,000, significantly below market expectations, indicating that the cooling of the U.S. labor market may be faster than anticipated. According to normal logic, weaker employment → rising expectations of Fed rate cuts → improved liquidity expectations → risk assets like BTC and ETH benefit. However, this time the market did not immediately start a one-sided rally. Instead, a very obvious phenomenon appeared: BTC is more stable, ETH is more aggressive, but ETH's pullback after the surge is also faster. Behind this are actually two opposing forces pulling against each other. On one side, weaker employment data leads the market to re-bet on future policy shifts, putting downward pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which is generally positive for the crypto market. On the other side, oil prices remain relatively strong, and energy price risks brought by geopolitical tensions have re-entered the market's view. If energy prices continue to rise, inflation expectations will be hard to cool quickly, and the Fed's ability to signal more easing will be constrained. So it cannot be simply understood as: "Poor employment = BTC immediately surges." What really matters is whether the cooling in employment can ultimately translate into sustained financial easing. BTC is currently showing relative resilience, with capital still treating it as a more institutional core crypto asset; ETH's volatility is obviously greater, influenced not only by interest rate expectations but also more susceptible to tech stocks, AI narratives, and changes in risk appetite. Another noteworthy signal is: if U.S. Treasury yields do not fall later and the dollar strengthens again, then today's kind of "numbers$BTC ｜The $80,000 mark hasn't been firmly held yet, so I'm actually hesitant to chase quickly
BTC has been a bit frustrating these past couple of days. It surged past $81,000 earlier but has now dropped back near $77,000. The pullback right at the start of September has indeed made many people worried.
But I don't think it's time to be pessimistic yet. BTC rose about 25% in August, and the US spot ETF saw a net inflow of approximately $3.52 billion that month, indicating that the previous rally was indeed supported by capital. The issue is that in September, ETFs have started to see outflows again, showing that short-term funds are clearly becoming cautious.
So I won't turn bearish just because it dropped to $77,000, nor will I chase on a rebound.
My approach is simple: observe around $77,000 first, only consider if it truly climbs back above $80,000 and then assess if the trend is accelerating again; if $77,000 doesn't hold, I'd rather wait for a lower level.
This time, I'd prefer to be slower rather than jump in after a 25% rally to catch the last leg. #On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, I choose to hold my position
Brothers, the non-farm payrolls will be released tomorrow night at 8:30. Honestly, the current market situation makes me uncomfortable—it's stuck in limbo, both bulls and bears are waiting, and no one dares to make the first move.
What about the macro outlook? The ADP small non-farm payrolls are only 38,000, far below the expected 48,000, indicating employment is indeed cooling down. The probability of a rate hike in September on CME has already surged to 66.9%, while before the Fed official's speech it was only 30%. This expectation has risen too sharply. Oil prices have hit 91, and US Treasury yields are at 4.78%. The macro environment feels like a huge mountain pressing down on the market.
My judgment: there will be volatility before the non-farm payrolls. BTC is hovering around 77,700; as long as 76,000-76,500 is not broken, it remains a range-bound game, no need to rush into heavy positions.
My trading idea: $BTC TC: buy on pullback at 76,300-76,500, stop loss at 75,800, target 79,000-79,500. $ETH: around 2,422, funds clearly favor BTC, buy at 2,380-2,400 on the downside, stop loss at 2,350, target 2,460-2,480.
In summary: before the non-farm payrolls come out, mainly try light long positions, don't chase highs or go heavy, wait for the data to land before making moves. In this kind of market, controlling your hands is more important than controlling your mouth. #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 ADP data is out, the trends of BTC and ETH The just-released ADP employment number is only 38,000, significantly below market expectations, indicating that the cooling of the U.S. labor market may be faster than anticipated. According to normal logic, weaker employment → rising expectations of Fed rate cuts → improved liquidity expectations → risk assets like BTC and ETH benefit. But this time, the market did not directly start a one-sided rally. Instead, a very obvious phenomenon appeared: BTC is more stable, ETH is more aggressive, but ETH’s pullback after the surge is also faster. Behind this are actually two forces pulling against each other. On one side, weaker employment data leads the market to re-bet on future policy shifts, putting downward pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which is generally positive for the crypto market. On the other side, oil prices remain relatively strong, and energy price risks brought by geopolitical situations have re-entered the market’s view. If energy prices continue to rise, inflation expectations will be hard to cool quickly, and the Fed’s ability to signal more easing will be constrained. So now it cannot be simply understood as: “Poor employment = BTC immediately skyrockets.” What really matters is whether the cooling of employment can ultimately translate into sustained financial easing. BTC is currently showing relative resilience, with capital still treating it as a more institutional core crypto asset; ETH’s volatility is obviously greater, influenced not only by interest rate expectations but also more easily affected by tech stocks, AI narratives, and changes in risk appetite. Another signal worth noting: if subsequent U.S. Treasury yieldsNeither ISM nor JOLTS provided clear answers, yet the probability of a rate hike surged to 66%.
The August ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 54.6, below expectations but still in expansion territory. JOLTS job openings were 7.27 million, slightly below estimates but a bit higher than last month. Both sets of data gave no clear direction—the manufacturing sector is slowing, but the job market hasn’t collapsed.
Then the CME market directly pushed the September rate hike probability up to 66%, even higher than last Friday.
The logic isn’t complicated. Fed Governor Barr clearly stated that if inflation doesn’t cool down, a decisive rate hike is necessary; Wash echoed this tone at Jackson Hole. The market’s interpretation of the data is—economy hasn’t crashed, inflation persists, so the Fed must keep tightening.
Tomorrow at 8:30 PM is the Nonfarm Payrolls report, with market expectations of about 58,000 new jobs and a 4.1% unemployment rate. This is the last full employment data before the September FOMC meeting.
· Nonfarm below 50,000: rate hike expectations cool down, $BTC may rebound
· Nonfarm 80,000-100,000: rate hike probability continues to rise, BTC remains under pressure
· Nonfarm above 120,000: September hike basically locked in, below 75,000 might test again
Currently, 77,000 has been flat for three days; we’ll wait for the data to land before deciding.LIQUIDITY IS ROTATING
$BTC is slightly lower, but $ETH is weakening. Meanwhile, altcoins show 30–40% breakouts alongside 8–17% declines. The market isn’t buying everything — capital is highly selective.
More importantly, $BTC Open Interest is falling as price rises, suggesting the rally is driven more by spot demand than leverage.
Capital hasn’t left crypto — it’s moving. If BTC loses support while liquidity rotates into altcoins, this compression could become distribution rather than breakout.Brothers, I've really paid my dues in the storage chip sector. At the SanDisk seminar on August 13, I shorted from around 1200, but the market reversed sharply and surged, finally shooting up to around 1800, completely wiping out my short position. After that wave, my biggest takeaway was: when facing earnings reports, performance, and industry prosperity, never stubbornly fight against the market trend. Now the market is focusing on Micron's earnings report on September 30. The current expectations are still very exaggerated: Q4 revenue is expected to be about $50.8 billion, a significant year-over-year increase, while the market is also watching whether gross margin and EPS can continue to beat expectations. Last quarter, Micron's gross margin already surged from around 38% directly to 85%, and the data center business single-quarter revenue also reached the billion-dollar level, showing how strong the storage cycle is. What's even more interesting is that SanDisk's gains this year have been astonishing, but there is still obvious room before reaching the previous high. The fundamental positives have not stopped either: HBM spot prices continue to strengthen, with some quotes even significantly higher than long-term contract prices; PC memory prices are rising rapidly, and the market still faces supply shortages. Yet the stock price has not truly broken through the previous high. This is quite intriguing. Funds are clearly waiting for a bigger catalyst, and Micron's earnings report on September 30 could very well be that key point. Of course, the market is not without risks. On one hand, there is uncertainty in labor negotiations with Micron's Taiwan employees, and issues like profit distribution may further escalate; on the other hand, Changxin Storage has started advancing HBM3E.On September 1st, the total holdings of $BTC spot ETFs dropped to 1,257,447.30 BTC, with a net reduction of 3,153.48 BTC on that day. On August 31st, there was a net increase of 2,599.33 BTC, but on September 1st it turned back to outflow, indicating a clear fluctuation after a period of continuous replenishment in recent days.
In the first two trading days of this week, there was a cumulative net reduction of 554.14 BTC. Over the past 7 trading days, there is still a cumulative net increase of 11,439.31 BTC, showing that the short-term capital advantage has not completely disappeared but has been significantly compressed compared to the end of August; the cumulative reduction since the start of September is 3,153.48 BTC, and since 2026, a total reduction of 40,519.63 BTC.
Currently, it appears more like a rapid decline in capital strength rather than all products withdrawing simultaneously. However, if large single reductions continue to occur, the cumulative net inflow over the past 7 trading days could easily be further eroded. Nonfarm payrolls haven't been released yet, but the probability of a September rate hike has already surged to 70%. However, today's employment data has started to weaken—what should we do?
The latest ADP report shows that the U.S. private sector added only 38,000 jobs in August, below the market expectation of 47,000, marking the weakest growth in seven months; the previous day's JOLTS also indicated weak corporate hiring intentions. Currently, the market expects the Friday nonfarm payrolls to add just over 50,000 jobs, clearly showing the labor market is not as strong as in previous years.
Here’s the question: employment is cooling down, so why is the Fed more likely to raise rates?
Because the market is more worried about inflation now. The U.S.-Iran conflict has pushed oil prices $BZ back to high levels, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has reached around 4.81%, and Warsh made it clear at Jackson Hole to maintain a hawkish stance. The probability of a 25 basis point hike in September has jumped from about 37% a week ago to 70%.
So Friday’s nonfarm payrolls will be very exciting: if the data is too strong, rate hike expectations will rise further, putting pressure on tech stock valuations; if the data is clearly weak, the market will start worrying about the economy again.
What I most want to see now is a "not too hot, not too cold" number. Employment shouldn’t collapse, and inflation shouldn’t flare up again—this would be the most comfortable scenario for $SPX and $QQQ.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 The stablecoin race is getting more crowded by the day. And here’s the key: a stablecoin is only useful if it has deep liquidity. That’s where comes in. Projects need liquidity for their stablecoins, so they compete for Curve gauge votes to direct $CRV incentives toward their pools. More stablecoins → more competition for liquidity → more demand for gauge votes → potentially more $CRV getting locked. And Curve isn’t only playing the liquidity game. crvUSD + LlamaLend give the ecosystem exposure⚠️⚠️⚠️Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are still escalating
$CL reacted first
Brent crude futures rose 4.6% in a single day, WTI crude rose 5.2%, both oils hitting their highest closing prices since late July
$BTC is under pressure here
It can be understood like this: geopolitics push oil prices → oil prices push inflation expectations → inflation pushes rate hike expectations → risk assets come under pressure
CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September has risen to 66.9%, while gold $XAU is having a slight rebound
When US Treasury real yields fall, gold's safe-haven attribute is still more effective than BTC
#BTC high-level pullback, gold linkage under test
#Hormuz risk heating up, energy inflation under watch #财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒
Broadcom's earnings exploded, is AI money starting to flow again? Brothers, keep an eye on this signal
Last night Broadcom released its earnings report, and the numbers are seriously impressive: revenue of $29.59 billion, a fierce 86% year-over-year increase, adjusted EPS of $3.32, both beating expectations. The most explosive part is AI semiconductor revenue at $16.7 billion, soaring 221%, accounting for 56% of total revenue.
But after-hours the stock price dropped 6%, why? Because the next quarter guidance is $34.8 billion, slightly less than Wall Street's expectations by just a few billion dollars, and the market immediately turned sour. This script is exactly like Marvell's—you score 99 points, but the market expected 100, so you get hit.
However, after the conference call, the after-hours price bounced back. CEO Hock Tan dropped a bomb: this year's AI revenue guidance was raised from $56 billion to $58 billion, next year directly to $115 billion, and the year after to $230 billion. Simply put: quadruple in three years, with an annual growth rate of 100%. The market believed it again.
How to trade? Broadcom is now the sentiment barometer for the AI sector. Last night’s market was actually very clear: after Broadcom’s conference call turned positive, the skew of semiconductor sector options clearly rose, bullish options got lively again, and capital is rushing to get ahead of next week's AI rally
$AVGO