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Wall Street's regular forces have officially entered the fray. But they may have underestimated one thing: the liquidity moat of the crypto market is much deeper than imagined. Société Générale made a high-profile entry last year, with bank-level compliance endorsement. After nearly a year online, its circulation is only $12.6 million. Circle's market cap is $70 billion, and Tether exceeds $180 billion. This is a gap that can't be caught up with just a few licenses. Banks have compliance and channel advantages, but the crypto-native market values liquidity depth and trading pair habits. USDT/USDC have been rooted in exchanges, wallets, and DeFi protocols for years, with very high migration costs. Bank entry won't kill USDT, but it may capture incremental markets—cross-border payments, institutional settlements, and compliance scenarios. The real showdown will be in July 2028—the critical point when U.S. platforms clear out non-compliant stablecoins. Before then, USDT's moat is deep enough, and banks' compliance credentials are strong enough; it's still uncertain who will win or lose. In the short term, Circle's stock price dropped 6.35% immediately after the news, showing the market has already reacted. In the long term, the stablecoin market moving from a duopoly to diversified competition is not a bad thing for the industry. #21 financial institutions plan to launch a dollar stablecoin $BTC $ETH At 3 a.m., I was staring at the capital flows on the screen when a question suddenly popped into my mind: Is this round of altcoins' green light truly on, or is it just a ruse by the main players? The data from August 31 is actually quite interesting. The ETF side absorbed $216 million in Bitcoin, $87.6 million in Ethereum, and there were also small amounts flowing into XRP and SOL. The numbers alone aren't shocking, but considering BTC is repeatedly testing the 77,000 to 79,000 range, the context changes the flavor. I have a few signals on my dashboard I'd like to share. - The ETH/BTC exchange rate is quietly warming up, combined with continuous ETF inflows, this might indicate large funds are tentatively building long-term positions. - SOL has some capital entering, but the scale is small, more like short-term funds seeking presence, not yet at the level of a trend start. - XRP receiving institutional orders shows that traditional capital's interest in the compliance narrative hasn't faded, but the volume isn't enough to support an independent rally. - HYPE's performance is relatively strong; such independent rallies are usually smart money clustering together, worth paying attention to. - OKB's ecosystem fundamentals and price structure are aligned, making it one of the few targets I feel has intrinsic logical support. The current market is actually trading on one thing: expectations of an interest rate cut cycle and liquidity easing. ETF inflows are the surface; the real underlying line is capital positioning ahead of next year's risk appetite recovery. But I don't think the altcoin season is confirmed yet. It's more like a fork in the road, with BTC holding steady as the key premise; a true altcoin rally requires stability.Last night's JINQIAN/FAMI was so exciting... This morning I saw that JINQIAN has already dropped 95.8% There is a very obvious loophole here: this FAMI is not an official stock token issued by Robinhood, but a third-party issuance This makes the narrative of "on-chain Meme short squeeze of US stocks" lack the most basic foundation There is no official Robinhood Stock Token peg between the on-chain FAMI token and the Nasdaq FAMI stock; it is only driven by short-term attention There are about 10,000 listed US stocks and ETFs in total, but Robinhood has only brought about 200 on-chain officially, roughly 2%, mainly concentrated in high market cap, high recognition, and high liquidity stocks Robinhood's official documentation specifically emphasizes: Tokens with the same name and stock code but different contract addresses are not Robinhood Stock Tokens To determine whether a so-called "stock coin" is officially deployed by Robinhood, it is actually very simple: check the official Registry for the contract address and refer to the official documentation Have you ever thought about this question: when a listed company declares that “we are continuously buying a certain asset,” on what grounds do you believe that it really is buying? The answer is actually very plain — on no grounds at all; you are simply waiting. Waiting for it to put out a financial report once a quarter, waiting for an audit firm to put down a signature, and then choosing to believe that this document has not been dressed up. In this arrangement, between you and the truth ther #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 The market has already priced in the expectation of a rate hike in September. This wave of risk asset decline did not start only after the non-farm payrolls release; rather, it is highly likely that the negative impact will be fully absorbed after the non-farm data is out. Current data shows a clear split: August ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 54.6, cooling down consecutively, but JOLTS job openings still reached 7.27 million, showing labor market resilience beyond expectations. The market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate hike in September has risen to 66%, with US Treasury yields and the US dollar index strengthening in advance. BTC has pulled back from 81,000 to around 78,000, essentially digesting hawkish expectations ahead of time. Many wait for the non-farm data before making moves, but I think the approach should be reversed: if the non-farm data is stronger than expected and the rate hike expectation is fully priced in, the market will likely drop again, marking a short-term bottom; if the non-farm data is weaker than expected and rate hike expectations cool down, risk assets will directly start to rebound. In other words, regardless of the data outcome, the room for a significant further decline from the current position is limited. For the crypto space, macro sentiment shocks are always short-term. The core logic of long-term ETF inflows and supply contraction after halving remains unchanged. In terms of operations, I am not panicking to cut losses but am gradually building positions at support levels. After the data release and sentiment eases, the market will eventually return to its own trend. What do you think? After the non-farm data release, will BTC rebound or continue to test lower levels? $BTC $ETH ETF funds are seriously diverging! BTC and ETH markets have completely diverged The biggest highlight in the recent market is not the rise or fall, but the complete divergence in the capital structure of mainstream coins. BTC remains under sustained pressure at high levels, with continuous outflows from spot ETFs and clear profit-taking by institutions at highs. After a previous rebound, BTC has accumulated a large amount of trapped and profit-taking positions, with heavy selling pressure above, severely lacking short-term upward momentum, and the market has entered a consolidation and bottoming phase. In contrast, ETH shows a completely different trend. Although it fluctuates with the broader market in the short term, ETFs have seen continuous net inflows over the past week, with long-term institutions steadily accumulating at low levels. The previous lag in gains and attractive valuation make ETH the new preferred choice for capital allocation, with much stronger resilience against declines than BTC. This also indicates that the market will no longer experience a broad rally but will officially enter a phase of rotation between strong and weak. BTC mainly digests selling pressure through consolidation, making a strong breakout difficult; ETH has solid capital support at the bottom, with a higher probability of catching up later. Currently, with non-farm payroll data approaching, overall market sentiment is cautious. In terms of operations, avoid chasing highs and heavy positions, wait for the market to stabilize, and prioritize watching for ETH rotation opportunities. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $BTC $ETH #FOMC last set of data before: this Friday's nonfarm payrolls Old me: KFC Crazy Thursday, Luckin Coffee coupons, big discounts on takeout, internet cafe top-up 100 get 100, etc. Current me: whether CPI data meets expectations, probability of the Clear Act passing, likelihood of rate hikes, whether ETF funds are flowing in, US-Iran geopolitical issues, whether nonfarm data is positive. Finally realized: news now increasingly feels like it's handing scripts to the market. Last night ADP was only 38,000, below the expected 48,000, employment continues to cool; G20 again signals clearer regulation of digital assets. Such news all comes out at critical moments, BTC can't fall further, ETH has started to V-shaped recover. But don't get too excited yet, the real big test is this Friday's nonfarm payrolls, which is also the last major employment data before the September FOMC. The market is already trading rate cut expectations; if nonfarm continues to be weak, the rebound space for BTC and ETH will naturally open up; conversely, if data is too strong, expect another hit. For BTC, I still only watch 770 and 778: above 778, look to 792; below 770, continue weak oscillation. If 755 doesn't break, I won't short. Same for ETH, don't rush to call 2000–2200 yet, first see if this nonfarm gives bulls a lifeline. $BTC $ETH The first privacy coin to get a US ETF is $ZEC! It surged to 888 in August, hitting an 8-year high, and now has pulled back to 819. This move is definitely not driven by retail traders. The logic supporting it is stronger than expected: Grayscale converted the trust into ZCSH, listed on NYSE Arca on 8/25, attracting $53 million in the first three days, and reaching $313 million by 8/28. Weekly new issuance is 657,000 ZEC (about $10.7 million), and early ETF demand is several times the weekly supply, indicating institutions are accumulating, not just hype. The privacy fundamentals are strengthening: shielded supply ratio hit a record 31%, the Ironwood upgrade permanently fixed the mid-year counterfeit coin vulnerability, and the NU7 shielded holder vote ends on 9/14, possibly changing halving to smooth issuance. But the current price at 818, with RSI at 75.8, is still overbought. It only dropped 0.86% in 24h with $37.3 million volume, showing high-level turnover. It’s still some distance from the previous high of 888, and just one step away from yesterday’s low of 788. Seven days of high-level consolidation, 788 is the bull-bear line, 842 is the previous high; there will be stories before the 9/14 NU7 vote. Breaking below 788 would be a signal of a pullback. With privacy and ETF as dual catalysts, if you can hold, don’t get shaken out by daily chart volatility.Wall Street has packaged Bitcoin as gold that can fit into a 401k But the experience feels like riding a roller coaster without a seatbelt CryptoSlate did a harsh calculation Since its launch, BlackRock IBIT has returned 67.74% Slightly beating the S&P 500's VOO at 66.14% Sounds like a win But IBIT's maximum drawdown is 53.3% VOO's is only 18.69% Beating the index Losing sleep. Spot funds are also shifting gears In late August, BTC ETFs saw consecutive large net inflows Once reaching $606 million in a single day On September 1, there was a net outflow of $237 million ETH ETFs also had large inflows in August Recently, on a settlement day, there was a net outflow of $47.7 million The door is open for money to come in The door is still open for money to go out Institutionalization looks decent But funds still move according to emotional triggers, which is toxic IBIT ultimately proves that $BTC has been institutionalized Or it proves that institutionalization just packed volatility into a more presentable code The code can enter pension accounts The roller coaster doesn't slow down because of that When the drawdown halves your account No matter how presentable the share code is, you have to watch your account halve Some say this is the ticket for digital gold to enter Some say it's just turning the night session into daytime trading Both sides are actually right But those who sit in will find Beating the index is easy to write into annual reports Losing sleep means staying up late to reconcile accounts yourself Wall Street gave Bitcoin a suit But inside is still the same old body #恐慌贪婪指数 Oil prices surge past $90, a hidden threat looming over the crypto space Recently, almost everyone's attention has been focused on ADP, Friday's non-farm payrolls, and the US crypto legislation. However, there is one developing issue that many have overlooked: international crude oil holding steady at $90. The Middle East situation has become tense again, with the US military launching airstrikes, pushing oil prices directly above the $90 mark. Many crypto players feel that crude oil is far removed from them, but in reality, energy prices are the biggest upcoming macroeconomic variable. Let's break down the logic simply. Rising oil prices mean increased energy costs across society, which will push overall inflation higher again. Even if subsequent employment data gradually weakens, as long as inflation rises again due to crude oil, the Federal Reserve's window to cut interest rates will be forced to delay or even be compelled to raise rates again. This also explains why after Wednesday's ADP data unexpectedly cooled, BTC did not rebound accordingly. Employment data is cooling, but the oil price surge has reawakened market concerns about inflation. These two forces cancel each other out, causing the market to stagnate. Many people have a misconception. They always think that as long as employment worsens, the Fed will immediately ease policy. But the Fed watches two indicators: employment and inflation. Even if employment weakens, once oil prices drive inflation back up, the option to raise rates remains on the table. The current situation is very delicate. In the short term, everyone is watching Friday's non-farm payroll results to judge the probability of a rate hike in September. But if oil prices continue to hold above $90, it will be a mid-to-long-term hidden threat hanging over the crypto market. Of course, there is no need to panic excessively 21 financial institutions plan to launch a US dollar stablecoin, indicating that banks finally no longer want to just sit on the sidelines Stablecoins have previously been weapons for crypto companies and payment companies—fast, versatile, and favored by users. Banks were more defensive before, worried about deposit outflows, regulatory responsibilities, and being bypassed. Now they are forming teams to enter the field themselves, essentially admitting that the path of on-chain US dollars can no longer be ignored But bank-issued stablecoins won’t be as wild as crypto-native stablecoins. They are more likely to serve corporate settlements, cross-border payments, and institutional clearing, emphasizing compliance, reserves, redemption, and identity systems The most interesting aspect of this competition is that stablecoins are no longer just crypto products but tools for banks to reclaim payment gateways #21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 Previously, we discussed how the decline in Saudi crude oil exports has pushed up oil prices, raising hidden inflation risks in the U.S. This logic has not yet produced a final outcome. The non-farm payroll data will be released this Friday, and combined with the recent continuous increase in gold ETF holdings, these major events together will definitively set the tone for the crypto market environment in the near future. Many retail crypto traders still focus solely on the internal crypto scene—scrolling through communities, watching whale movements, monitoring contract liquidations—treating the crypto world as a closed game. But in reality, an employment report from across the ocean and the flow of institutional funds in the gold market will concretely transmit through liquidity chains to Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, ZEC, Trump coins, and a variety of altcoins, though the degree of impact varies greatly among different coins. Let's clarify the logic first. The non-farm payroll data looks at three things: new jobs added, unemployment rate, and wage growth. Hot employment and rapid wage increases indicate a persistently strong U.S. economy. Even if oil prices do not continue to surge, wages alone will endogenously push inflation higher. Once inflation pressure rises again, the Federal Reserve will delay rate cuts, and the market may even reprice the possibility of rate hikes. U.S. Treasury yields will rise, the dollar will strengthen, and cheap money in global markets will tighten. Meanwhile, the continuous increase in gold ETF holdings is itself a form of institutional voting. Institutions buying gold ETFs partly hedge against inflation risks from geopolitical tensions and oil; partly, they anticipate huge uncertainties in the future economy and monetary policy, treating gold as a safe haven ballast.#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注, GLD call option open interest exceeds put options by nearly 2.5 million contracts, marking the largest gap since February. On the surface, this is the same story: capital is wildly bullish on gold. But if you look closely at what options traders are betting on, things get strange: they are heavily buying call spread options, not outright heavy call options. Implied volatility is far below the Q1 peak. Call option skew is narrower than at the start of the year. In plain language: they want a rise, but don’t want to pay too high a price for it. On one side, ETFs are voting with real money, like using both hands to prop up gold prices. On the other side, the options market is carefully calculating, leaving itself an exit. Hands are adding positions, feet are looking for a way out. This is the most unusual part of this news: the gold market is talking to itself in two completely different languages. Change the subject to "that careful foot." If the subject is "gold ETFs," the story is "allocation players are optimistic." If the subject is "call options," the story is "sentiment players are excited." But if the subject is changed to that careful foot in the options market, using spread structures instead of naked long positions, the whole narrative reveals a crack. What is this foot saying? It says: "I believe gold prices will rise, but I don’t believe they will rise fast or far enough to justify paying full price for this belief." So it buys call spread options—lower cost, but the upside is capped within a range. It buys exotic options—using one outcome The 10-year US Treasury yield soared to 4.803% today, hitting a new high since November 2023 😬 The last time this number appeared, BTC was still hovering around 35,000. Now $BTC is at 77,000, the position is different, but the pressure is the same. What the market is really worried about now is not whether the yield is high or not, but whether the Fed will actually raise rates on September 16. Currently, the probability of a rate hike has climbed to 65-68%. If the September 5 nonfarm payroll data is stronger, this number will have to go even higher 📈 Technically, 79,000 is the bulls' defensive line today. If it holds, we can wait for the nonfarm data; if it breaks, look down to 76,500. Before the data comes out, all positions are betting on one report, don’t fool yourself into thinking you’re trading. With rate hike expectations heating up and high interest rates weighing on interest-free assets, $BTC will definitely struggle in the short term. But I don’t pay attention to what officials say, only whether they dare to actually raise rates in the end. With 40 trillion in debt on the table, who can’t talk big?On September 15, the U.S. Senate will hold a crucial vote on the "Clarity Act." As soon as this news came out, the market naturally started to get excited. After all, this is a major issue that U.S. crypto regulation has been closely watching. But interestingly, the more these moments come, the less I like to see the words "positive news." The reason is simple. A vote does not equal passage. To advance, it needs at least 60 votes. The Republicans hold 53 seats. That means they still need to find at least 7 Democratic senators. And right now, both sides haven't even fully agreed on some specific provisions. So the truly interesting part of this matter is not: "Is September 15 really a big positive?" But rather: Why does a bill that seems to already have industry consensus still need to be negotiated vote by vote at the end? Because the crypto market likes to talk about consensus. Wall Street likes to talk about interests. Politicians like to talk about votes. The rules that actually get implemented are often the result of compromises among these three. So this time, I'm not in a hurry to guess the market's rise or fall. Let's first see who will provide those 60 votes.📝 Today's Share BTC Nonfarm Eve, 77K Becomes the Battlefield for Bulls and Bears Tomorrow night at 8:30, the August Nonfarm Payrolls will decide the September rate hike script. The market expects an increase of 50-80K, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. July was -23K, so this data is very likely to rebound—but the key is whether the rebound exceeds expectations. ADP recorded 38K yesterday, below expectations, the weakest since January, casting a shadow over Nonfarm. The 10-year yield soared to 4.81%, the probability of a rate hike rose to 68%, and the market has priced in a hawkish stance in advance. Three scenarios: 📉 Over 100K → Rate hike confirmed, BTC pressure increases 🔄 50-80K → Meets expectations, volatility followed by consolidation 📈 Below 30K → Rate hike expectations ease, rebound opportunity appears BofA reminds: Nonfarm is just an appetizer; the CPI on September 11 is the key to deciding whether to hike rates. My approach: Hold the base position, no adding or betting on direction. Wait for data to land before acting, keep U on hand for signals. ⛔ Risk reminder: Historical data shows that if data exceeds expectations, BTC may fall back to $75,000 or even lower. Don't go heavy tonight. $BTC $ETH #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 This round of oil price increases has a real supply gap. But the price also includes a heavy war premium. In the short term, Brent crude oil will still fluctuate sharply between $90 and $105. Breaking through $100 is not difficult. To hold steady in the long term, we need to see Saudi exports continuously hindered, or a serious disruption in the Strait of Hormuz again. The news of the “lowest in nine years” alone cannot support a long-term oil price bull market. In August, Saudi observable crude oil exports dropped to about 3 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 2017. In February this year, Saudi Arabia could still export about 7.3 million barrels per day. In half a year, it has decreased by more than half. However, this “3 million barrels” comes from vessel tracking data from institutions like Kpler and Vortexa. It is not the final official data released by Saudi Arabia. During the war, many oil tankers turn off AIS signals and also hide routes through offshore transshipment. The specific numbers may be underestimated. There is not much controversy about the direction. Saudi crude oil is indeed harder to transport out. On September 1, Brent crude oil rose 4.6% in a single day, closing at $94.65. WTI rose 5.2%, closing at $90.22. The next day, Brent once touched $97.04, then fluctuated around $95. The oil price increase happened before the “lowest in nine years” data was widely spread in the market. The real trigger was the renewed clashes between the US and Iran, and the attacks on oil tankers. Two supertankers carrying Saudi crude oil were attacked while leaving the Strait of Hormuz. The ships carried a total of about 4 million ASTER｜September 17: Original team cliff start (official announcement postponed to after 2027/9/17 requires on-chain verification) Official statement: The team’s 400 million tokens are all locked until 2027/9/17; pending verification: CoinLaunch 174.7M (about $120 million, accounting for 2.2% of the max supply) whether it is a non-team batch, if it belongs to other allocations, some will still unlock on 9/17.HYPE｜September 6: Core Contributor Monthly Unlock (9.92M, approximately $797 million) 9.92M counted as stable (CoinLaunch 6.43M coexist). Based on the closing price on 9/2 of ~$80.3, approximately $797 million; based on Tokenomist's $59.39 count, approximately $589 million. New details within the window: Hyperliquid Labs unstaked 433,000 on 8/30 as reserve for the 9/6 team distribution; Multicoin's 261,600 transferred to Coinbase is an independent exchange inflow. Historical claim rate anchor: only about 1.75% was actually claimed in March, so actual selling pressure is very likely lower than nominal volume. Verification action: on 9/6, on-chain verification of actual claims and exchange net inflows, separately counting team claims and ecosystem party transfers. HYPE｜September 29: Next major monthly unlock (approximately 14.176 million level) Same scale as 8/29, with the 9/6 claim rate as a prior reference. HYPE｜October 3: First AQAv2 payout (repurchase direction) Approximately $20 million USDC reserve income payout, directed towards repurchase and burn; actual repurchase volume and execution method will test the HYPE repurchase narrative.ASTER｜ $0.69–0.70 (9/2 multiple sources tend to converge: CMC $0.69, Gate caliber ¥4.58≈$0.68–0.70, 30d +6.42% caliber), the abnormal $1.14 source window from yesterday did not reappear, price caliber conflicts are converging. After the 9/1 team lock extension announcement for 12 months, no new progress; waiting for on-chain verification on 9/17 to see if it is actually locked (if CoinLaunch 174.7M belongs to other batches, some unlocks may still occur). Maintaining observation. AAVE｜** On 9/2, intraday surged to $135 (Hexn 07:00 UTC caliber $133, +5.33%) then retreated, Bitget closed at $126.64 at 15:15 UTC (-0.53%), 7d +3.28%, market cap $1.95 billion (rank #38). No new events within the window: Aavenomics 3.0 automatic buyback mechanism activated on 6/29 (100% protocol revenue routing, DAO budget compressed to $30 million/year), the proposal on 7/30 to close 50 low-utilization reserves and exit Sonic/Scroll/zkSync/Metis/Soneium/Aptos is old news (9/1 Russian source repost confirmed non-incremental). The surge and retreat is more likely sector-driven (led by UNI/CRV) rather than project event-driven. Maintain observation today, no need to update judgment. HYPE｜** $81.14–83.09 (9/2 multiple sources), retraced about 4–6% from ATH $86.71 (8/27), consolidating in the $80–85 range, 4h structure intact. No single decisive event within the window, but dense fragmented signals: ① Multicoin Capital transferred another 63,200 HYPE to Coinbase (about $5.23 million), totaling 261,600 HYPE (about $21.72 million) — an observational selling pressure signal, not decisive; ② Coinbase launched cbHYPE (1:1 custody) on Base on 9/2; ③ Silhouette institutional RFQ layer went live on mainnet on 9/1, first batch supports Payward xStocks tokenized stocks; ④ 9/6 unlock of 9.92M approaching, Hyperliquid Labs has unstaked 433,000 HYPE pending distribution. On the buying side: Hyperliquid Strategies raised the Chardan equity facility cap from $1 billion to $2.5 billion, FT-calibrated HYPE+Pump.fun accounts for about 90% of crypto buybacks in 2026 (out of $638M). Both bulls and bears have material, waiting for 9/6 to see the real outcome.The probability of a September rate hike has already surged to 70% even before the non-farm payrolls were released. What signal does this send? Yet today's employment data is starting to weaken again. What should we make of this market? The latest ADP report shows that the US private sector added only 38,000 jobs in August, not only below the market expectation of 47,000 but also the lowest in 7 months. The JOLTS data released the day before also indicates that companies' hiring intentions remain weak. Currently, market expectations for Friday's non-farm payrolls are low, with an anticipated increase of just over 50,000. Clearly, the US labor market is no longer as "tight" as it was in previous years. Here’s the question: Employment is cooling down, so why is the Federal Reserve more likely to raise rates? Because the market's concern now is not just employment but inflation making a comeback. The US-Iran conflict has pushed oil prices higher, with Brent crude returning to elevated levels; the 10-year US Treasury yield has also reached around 4.81%. Coupled with the hawkish signals from Warsh at Jackson Hole, the market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate hike in September has soared from about 37% a week ago to 70%. Therefore, Friday's non-farm payrolls are very likely to be highly impactful. **If the data is too strong:** Rate hike expectations will continue to rise, US Treasury yields will climb, and tech stock valuations will remain under pressure. If the data is clearly weak:** The market will start worrying about the US economy again, and trading logic will shift back toward recession risks. The most awkward scenario might be if the data only weakens moderately—employment is not strong enough but not weak enough to make the Fed fully pivot dovish. What the market is really waiting for now is not just "how many jobs the non-farm payrolls add," but: How weak does employment have to get to outweigh the inflation-driven pressure for rate hikes? The answer will be revealed this Friday. $BTC $ETH $SOL #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 📊 $BTC Before NFP: The Market Is Already Nervous Non-Farm Payrolls haven’t been released yet but Bitcoin is already showing weakness. JOLTS remains around 7.3M, suggesting employment hasn’t collapsed while previous NFP data was revised down by 103K.The labor market is cooling, but not breaking. The real risk is the expectation gap: Strong NFP → yields rise → rate-cut hopes weaken Very weak NFP → funds may seek safety before crypto Ideal outcome → moderate job growth + stable wages + gradual #财报观察员: Broadcom's performance exceeds expectations, Snowflake raises guidance. Family, looking at the earnings reports of Broadcom and Snowflake together, the signal of AI chain diffusion is becoming clearer. Broadcom's Q3 revenue and profit both exceeded expectations, with AI semiconductor revenue at 16.7 billion, but the overall revenue guidance for Q4 is slightly below analyst forecasts, causing a post-market drop of over 6%. The market is saying one thing — no matter how strong the AI chip business is, it can't withstand the drag from the slowdown in traditional business, and the tolerance is getting lower. Snowflake presents a completely different picture, with product revenue up 37% year-over-year, AI-assisted coding tool CoCo's user accounts increasing to 9,100, and an upward revision of full-year revenue and margin guidance, surging 21% after hours. The AI story on the software side is being validated, turning from "pie in the sky" to "real money." Dell also recently raised its full-year AI server revenue forecast. Putting these three signals together — AI demand is spreading from chip procurement to servers, network equipment, data cloud, and software applications. But the market's demand for delivery speed is also increasing; Broadcom's slightly lower guidance was punished, indicating the margin for error has narrowed significantly. The AI chain is expanding, but it's time to check each company's performance fulfillment. Wishing everyone smooth trading. $SNDK $ARB $BTC #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低, oil prices soar. Based on the market's conditioned reflexes over the past twenty years, the next scenario should be: energy shocks → rising inflation expectations→ central banks in a dilemma→ and the market began betting that "the central bank wouldn't dare raise rates→ risk assets would catch their breath." But the reality in September 2026 is: on the same day oil prices broke through $95, the market pushed the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to 65%. There is no pricing where "the central bank will hesitate." There is no consensus that "no rate hikes are traditionally due to supply shocks." The moment the market saw energy prices soar, its reaction was—increasing its bet that the Fed would be more hawkish. This is the most unusual part of this news: it's not that oil prices have risen, but that the market's interpretation of "rising oil prices" has completely changed. Replace the subject with "that broken transmission chain." If the subject is "Saudi Arabia," the story is "export contraction." If the subject is "oil prices," the story is "inflation alert." But if the subject is the "energy→inflation → central bank → assets' transmission chain that was once revered by the market, you find something terrifying: the third link of this chain has broken. In the past, the logic of this chain was: rising oil prices → rising inflation→ central banks faced a dilemma→ the market expected the central bank to "hesitate→ increased uncertainty in the interest rate path→ buffering risk assets." The key lies in the "dilemma." The central bank hesitates, and the market exploits this hesitation. But now, the market has directly skipped the "dilemma" step. Oil prices have risen? Good, the probability of rate hikes has increased. No hesitation, no weighing options,The most chilling scene in blockchain isn't necessarily a private key being stolen. It's when a wallet with no public key, never signed, and theoretically never supposed to move, suddenly transfers funds by itself. MANTRA released a full post-mortem on August 28: the attacker exploited an unsigned integer underflow vulnerability in the upstream `cosmos/evm`, moving about 600 million MANTRA from the burn address, and about 121 million from an early multisig address, totaling approximately 721 million tokens, worth around 3.6 million USD at the time of the incident. No validator keys, admin privileges, or multisig signatures were compromised, and no customer accounts were directly debited. The problem lies in a very "programmer-like" pitfall: when the system performed subtraction, it should have detected insufficient balance and thrown an error, but because the numeric type couldn't represent negative numbers, it wrapped into an astronomical number. The attacker then exploited this erroneous state to debit unauthorized addresses. No new tokens were minted out of thin air, but balances that were economically dormant became liquid assets, which still impacted circulating supply and market confidence. The truly painful part isn't the code itself, but the phrase "this address can never move." Because the team treated the burn address as a permanently dormant dead account, monitoring didn't watch it. Nearly four hours passed after the first abnormal transfer without an automatic alert; after the second transfer, the chain was paused only 14 minutes later. The network was ultimately down for 30 hours and 13 minutes. Cosmos's security post-mortem also expanded the scope of the incident: similar vulnerabilities exist in Capital flow divergence signals earlier than price: BTC ETF outflows over two days vs ETH ETF inflows for 12 consecutive days: On 9/2 (Eastern US time), BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 3,148 BTC (-$241 million), with IBIT leading the decline at -$201 million and FBTC at -$43.67 million, marking the largest single-day outflow since 7/31; combined with -$237 million on 9/1, the two-day total outflow reached approximately -$478 million. In the same period, ETH ETFs recorded inflows of +$17.91 million (ETHA +$11.2 million), extending net inflows to 12 consecutive trading days, with a 7-day cumulative inflow of +$522 million, which is 2.42 times that of BTC ETFs (+$215 million) over the same period. This reflects verifiable institutional behavior shifts rather than a single event-driven move; ETH showed relative resilience (-1.31% vs BTC -0.25% on the day), but the absolute scale remains small, warranting observation to see if this is a prelude to quarterly allocation.Macro shifts from "panic pricing" to "eve of data convergence": On Eastern US 9/2 (Beijing early morning 9/3 close), US stocks ended a three-day losing streak—S&P 7,666.60 (+0.5%), Dow 53,061.95 (+0.6%), Nasdaq 26,217.83 (+0.5%). The driver was August ADP at only +38,000 (expected 48,000, July revised up to 46,000, lowest since January this year). CME implied probability of a September rate hike fell from 68% to about 64–65%. Trump's statement that the strike on Iran "won't last too long" paused the oil price rally: Brent settled at $95.63 (+1.04%), WTI touched $92.28 intraday then closed +0.88%, not breaking $100; spot gold closed at $4,381.68 (+1.2%). But "alarm stop escalation" does not mean resolution: Saudi vessels were attacked, reports of two oil tankers hitting mines in the Strait of Hormuz persist; Asian markets plunged (Nikkei -2.85%, South Korea -4%); 10Y US Treasury remains above 4.7%. Tomorrow night (Beijing 9/4 20:30) August nonfarm payrolls is the next convergence point, expected +65,000, unemployment rate 4.1%→4.2% (July initial -23,000), 9/11 CPI expected steady at 3.4%.The core focus this week is just one thing—Nonfarm Payrolls. This is the last employment data before the September interest rate decision. The market is currently betting on expectations. The market impact can be divided into three scenarios: Nonfarm exceeds expectations: rate hike expectations intensify, BTC might retrace to 75,000 or even 72,000 Nonfarm meets expectations: volatility, unclear direction Nonfarm falls short of expectations: rate cut expectations intensify, BTC might rebound above 82,000 BTC is hovering around 78,000 now; the key is where it goes after the Nonfarm data is released. $ETH has greater elasticity, rising sharply on good news and falling hard on bad news, waiting around 2,480 for direction. $SKHYNIX and SanDisk have different logic from BTC and ETH; it not only depends on interest rates but also on how funds move within the AI sector. Poor Nonfarm data doesn’t necessarily mean a rise, and good data doesn’t necessarily mean a fall; it depends on market interpretation. Before the data comes out, don’t bet on direction #IntensiveEmploymentDataRelease, $BTC Wash policy stance under scrutiny #BTCHighVolatility, stronger linkage with gold #EarningsObserver: Broadcom and Dell take over, AI returns under further examination The market has been looking pretty bad these past two days, but this afternoon I reviewed the market again and actually noticed a change worth paying attention to: not all major altcoins are falling along with BTC. Currently, $BTC is around $73,000, ETH near $2,250, but BNB has already climbed back above $650, XRP is back near $1.28, and SOL is around $100. Even more interesting is UNI. Over the past 7 days, UNI has maintained gains of over 30%, and over the past 30 days, more than 50%. This indicates that although overall market risk appetite has declined, capital is still willing to buy certain assets with independent logic. So now when I look at major altcoins, I no longer simply follow market cap rankings. I prefer to divide them into three categories: First category: follow the overall market. SOL, XRP, BNB. These have the best liquidity and are the altcoins most accessible to institutional funds. When the market weakens, they fall, but once risk appetite recovers, they are often the first to attract capital again. Second category: have independent fundamentals. LINK, AAVE, UNI. The real advantage of these coins is not "they rise because the market is bullish," but that they are benefiting from on-chain activity growth. Especially UNI's recent strength is very worth observing. Third category: high Beta. HYPE, SUI, TAO, ENA. I actually avoid chasing these coins during the market's most fearful times. Because when they truly start moving, it will be when...A small American town handed over the entire city's WiFi to blockchain, $HNT doubled in a week Today, no talk about the big market, let's talk about something interesting: Celina, a small town in Texas, has a population growth of 24% in one year, and the base stations can't keep up, so they simply transformed the entire city's WiFi into mobile coverage on the blockchain. The protagonist is $HNT, which rose 110% in a week and surged another 15% in 24 hours. Why did the market suddenly buy in so much? 1: There are real customers, not just empty promises Celina is a real customer of Helium, with about 100GB of data running on-chain daily in this city. DePIN has talked about "decentralized networks" for years, but this is the first real city-level implementation. 2: Shorts got squeezed out The rise was too fast, many people opened short positions betting it would fall, but shorts were liquidated for over one million dollars, and the more it rose, the more people chased it. This kind of short squeeze is often the most intense phase of the market. 3: Token logic is tightening Miner rewards are starting to link to real network usage—the more people use it, the more tokens are burned. Plus, integration with Solana is also progressing, making the story more complete. Reminder: $HNT doubled in a week, short squeeze rallies come fast and go fast, with resistance around 0.97. DePIN is a good sector, but chasing something that has already doubled requires caution Can be compressed into a more impactful short version, retaining the “data triple set” and non-farm payroll trading logic: 【Pharaoh Market Watch｜Non-Farm Preview】⚠️ Non-farm payrolls haven’t been released yet, but the appetizer has already confused the market. Employment data continues to diverge: hiring slows down, but unemployment rate and wages haven’t collapsed significantly. August ADP increased by only 38,000, well below expectations; the market’s bet on a September rate hike still remains above 60%. Tonight, the real focus isn’t just on new jobs, but on: 🔥 Unemployment rate + Hourly wages + Previous data revisions • Strong data → rate hike expectations heat up → BTC under pressure • Moderate cooling → “Goldilocks” scenario → BTC likely to rebound to 80K • Data shockingly weak → initial rate cut speculation, but possible recession trading afterward → spike then fall In short: Too strong fears rate hikes, too weak fears recession, only a moderate scenario is BTC’s most comfortable script. Avoid high leverage before non-farm; the first candlestick will likely fake out, don’t rush to be cannon fodder. $BTC $ETH $SOL #NonFarmDataDivergence #SeptemberRateHikeExpectationsHeatingUp 6 In this version, I helped you shorten it a bit and changed "laying long positions before earnings" to a more prudent expression; also, public information confirms that SanDisk indeed held an Investor Day on August 13, and MU's next earnings date is September 30. Last time SanDisk drove my short position up to 1800 causing a liquidation, so this time for MU's earnings, I have to remember the lesson. On August 13 at SanDisk Investor Day, I shorted from 1200 all the way up, but it went straight to 1800, a harsh lesson: in front of earnings and guidance, don't easily fight the trend. MU's earnings are coming again on September 30. Currently, the storage market remains strong, AI data center demand continues, MU's last quarter revenue reached 41.46B with a gross margin of 84.6%, and the company previously guided Q4 revenue around 50B with a gross margin about 86%. After $SNDK's surge this year, market expectations are already very high. The more good news, the more you have to guard against "good news being priced in." So this time, I won't bet on the market direction in advance. I'll wait for MU's earnings to be released, see the performance, guidance, and market reaction, then find the position. I haven't forgotten the tuition fee from last liquidation. $SNDK $MU $SKHYNIX ETH has fallen below 2400 again…… Holding positions really feels unpleasant, especially since I was waiting for this level to act as a short-term anchor, but it got broken through by a wave of macro sentiment. Last night, ADP was soft, with private sector job additions below expectations. On the surface, this looks like a cooling labor market, theoretically leaving some room for rate cut expectations; but the market is more conflicted now—sticky inflation, high interest rates, and no real easing in the dollar and short-term US Treasuries, so weak employment doesn’t necessarily translate immediately into a positive for risk assets. Instead, it might first trade as "growth concerns." Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the key test this week. If cooling continues, the rate cut narrative will get some support, and ETH might try to reclaim 2400; if the data turns stronger again, the Fed’s path will tighten back, and liquidity sentiment in crypto will remain tight. Technically, after losing 2400, we need to watch if it’s a false break, focusing on volume recovery and support below, not just relying on gut feeling to buy. On-chain/ETF and futures chip sentiment are also influencing the rhythm. ETH isn’t just about the chart now; it’s waiting for macro to give direction. In terms of trading, don’t bet on the data—go light, set stop losses, and wait for confirmation. Only if it reclaims and holds above 2400 can the structure be considered a bit better; otherwise, treat it as weak for now. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 September 3 Comprehensive Analysis News Real-Time Update Market Characterization: Macro has shifted from "unilateral rate hike trading" to "data-driven game" — After the ADP surprise (38,000), the probability of a September rate hike fell back to ~45%, but the US-Iran conflict + oil price at 90–95 + 10Y yield at a 19-month high remain suppressive factors. BTC is operating within the 75–80K range, with the September 4 Nonfarm Payrolls and mid-September FOMC tone set. Strongest On-Chain Theme: Robinhood Chain ecosystem (DEX surpasses 900 million/week with 8.26 million revenue) — $ARB B revenue return and $UNI fee capture are the most valuable branches; the "new market structure" of stock tokens × Meme is worth continuous tracking, but beware of Meme overextension risk. Institutional Catalysts: RWA/tokenized securities (DTCC services in October, SEC new ETF opinions, Nasdaq standards, HashKey joining DTCC) and stablecoin regulation (Thailand travel rule, GENIUS Act, HKDAP) are entering an intensive implementation phase; institutionalization is the most certain long-term narrative for 2026. Risk List: ① Marginal selling pressure of 28,000 BTC by mining companies within the year; ② August security losses of $215 million and price manipulation becoming mainstream attack methods (Injective vulnerability, CHUMP control warning) Alright, let's chat about the job of a “Earnings Observer.” But first, a disclaimer: I don't have a real-time market terminal here, so for exact beat margins down to two decimal places or precise guidance numbers, you should rely on the official earnings call. We'll just break down the highlights based on the recent patterns from Broadcom and Snowflake, like having a casual tea chat after market close. --- First, let's talk about Broadcom: Earnings beat expectations, but where exactly? Broadcom is quite interesting. Its CEO, Hock Tan, is a typical “cash flow fanatic,” not one for storytelling, just crunching numbers. Whenever their earnings beat expectations, it's rarely due to a single surprise but rather a few business segments “collaborating”: 1. AI Custom Chips (ASICs) are the biggest driver Broadcom makes custom AI accelerators (like TPUs) for big companies like Google and Meta. In recent years, these giants don't want to just buy Nvidia cards; they also want to develop their own cost-effective, efficient dedicated chips, and Broadcom fills that niche. A beat usually means AI-related revenue growth has exploded again, and next quarter's guidance is raised. They won't say “we sold 1 million units,” but will say things like “AI semiconductor revenue doubled year-over-year.” 2. Network chips ride the wave With more GPUs in data centers, demand for switches, routers, and optical modules surges. Broadcom's Tomahawk and Jericho series switch chips are hard currency; this segment is often the “second engine” behind the beat.Data doesn't lie. When almost all the voices you hear are bullish, but what you actually see is that trading activity is inactive and momentum is weakening — you should trust what you see. At the same time, the exchange's SVD shows a stepwise decrease in the strength of active buying as the price rises, which also tells us that continuing to surge ahead will be quite challenging. However... what's quite interesting is that when the price starts to fall, the SVD's trough is gradually rising! Looking at this alone, my understanding is that the current selling willingness is not strong, and the new price lows are not accompanied by heavier active selling. This still falls within the normal digestion range after a breakout. Currently, my personal view is: don't have overly high expectations for the depth of the pullback. Especially when those who missed the first wave of the rally are all waiting for a decent correction.On September 1, the total holdings of $BTC spot ETFs dropped to 1,257,447.30 BTC, with a net reduction of 3,153.48 BTC on the day. On August 31, there was a net increase of 2,599.33 BTC, but on September 1 it turned back to outflow, indicating a clear fluctuation after a period of continuous replenishment in recent days. In the first two trading days of this week, there was a cumulative net reduction of 554.14 BTC. Over the past 7 trading days, there is still a cumulative net increase of 11,439.31 BTC, showing that the short-term capital advantage has not completely disappeared but has been significantly compressed compared to the end of August; the cumulative decrease since the start of September is 3,153.48 BTC, and since 2026, a total decrease of 40,519.63 BTC. Currently, it looks more like a rapid decline in capital strength, not all products are withdrawing simultaneously yet, but if large single reductions continue, the cumulative net inflow over the past 7 trading days could easily be further eroded.$ETH at $2,500 — do you think it's expensive? Arthur Hayes has already seen $10,000 ETH. Today's price: 2,390. Arthur Hayes' year-end target: 10,000. Potential upside: +318%. You might say, "Another pump call." But Hayes doesn't make calls lightly. The situation is unfolding! Cashing out! First, let's see what's happening in France. On September 2, the yield on France's 10-year government bonds reached 4.17%. On September 1, it was even higher, hitting 4.21% at one point. Approaching the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. France's government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to reach 118.5% in 2026 and exceed 120% in 2027. French bank stocks fell 3% to 4% in one day. The entire European bond market is collapsing. Then look at what the US is doing. On August 19, the US Treasury announced it would at least double the scale of long-term bond buybacks — from $2 billion to $4 billion. Effective from September 9, covering bonds from 10-year to 30-year maturities. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also said, "It could exceed $4 billion." The US government is personally stepping in to buy its own debt. Connecting these points — Hayes' logic is as follows: France collapses → French banks are forced to shrink repo market financing → US Treasury financing costs rise → Hedge funds deleverage → New York Fed is forced to expand repo operations → The Fed accelerates its monthly balance sheet expansion to nearly $1 billion. This is Today, the entire market is consolidating on low volume. Bitcoin is tugging back and forth around 7.7, similar to the previous tugging around 6.3. As long as it can hold steady at this level, a beautiful spring lies ahead. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated about $152 million, with long positions liquidated around $103 million. The Fear and Greed Index rose to 71, entering the "Greed" zone, but the altcoin season index is only 32, indicating the market has not yet fully expanded. However, policy risks must also be noted. Federal Reserve Chair Powell delivered a hawkish speech at the annual meeting, confirming the 2% inflation target as a "hard constraint," emphasizing that inflation has not been met. The expectation for a rate hike in September surged from about 36% before the speech to 57%. CME FedWatch data shows traders' bets on a September rate hike have climbed to 57%. Bitcoin at 77,000 is digesting the impact of Powell's hawkish speech. The 57% probability of a September rate hike is the biggest sword hanging over the market. If this sword falls, Bitcoin will very likely return to around 6.3 to continue consolidating. CAPITAL IS SHIFTING Latest ETF data shows institutional flows are diverging. On Sept. 1, $BTC ETFs recorded -$236.46M, while $ETH posted +$10.95M, $SOL +$10.19M, and $HYPE +$1.76M. ETF flows are no longer moving with price. This suggests investors are reallocating capital rather than exiting crypto. Selective demand for $ETH, $SOL, and $HYPE remains visible, while $BTC faces profit-taking pressure. ETF flows are becoming a key signal for tracking where larger capital is moving. Broadcom delivered a financial report that almost every CEO dreams of: revenue of $29.591 billion, a year-over-year surge of 86%; AI semiconductor revenue of $16.7 billion, soaring 221% year-over-year, accounting for 56% of total revenue. Even more striking is its long-term blueprint: AI revenue doubling to $115 billion in fiscal 2027, then doubling again to $230 billion in fiscal 2028. Yet, it fell 6% after hours. What about Snowflake? Revenue of $1.55 billion, up only 35% year-over-year, with a full-year guidance raise of less than 4%, mentioning that AI coding tool CoCo is "adoption accelerating." It surged 21% after hours. One talks about "doubling in two years," the other about "a good quarter." The market crushed the former and exalted the latter. This is the part of the news that feels most off to me: it’s not the divergence in performance, but the collapse of the "time horizon." The market has regressed to the point where it cannot price anything beyond 90 days. Change the subject to "that ignored doubling blueprint." If the subject is "Broadcom," the story is "guidance not impressive enough." If the subject is "Snowflake," the story is "AI deployment accelerating." But if the subject is changed to that "consecutive doubling blueprint" that the market discarded like trash, the absurdity of the whole narrative emerges. What did Broadcom say on the earnings call? Not "we will do better next quarter," but "AI computing demand is not a passing fad, but a super cycle measured in years with consecutive doubling." It even provided specific numbers:Today, AKE suddenly exploded. It rose more than 70 points in 24 hours, and many people might not even know what this coin is for. Actually, AKE's story is very easy to understand: you say a word to AI, and it helps you create a game. For example, you tell it: "Help me make a monster-fighting and leveling mini-game." Different AI Agents in AKEDO help you with maps, rules, storylines, and even game balance. According to official promotions, it can turn an idea into a playable game in as little as two minutes. So you can think of AKEDO as: "an AI version of a game maker." And after finishing the game, you can continue tokenizing content, issuing tokens, and creating Launchpads. So it stacks three concepts that are currently popular in the crypto world: AI, gaming, and token issuance platforms. So why did it suddenly surge so fiercely today? After checking, I didn't see a huge positive sign enough to explain a seventy-plus point increase. Instead, there's a very shocking statistic: in the past 24 hours, AKE contracts saw nearly $30 million in liquidations, with over 90% of them being short positions. What does that mean? Simply put: the price rises first→ shorts get liquidated→ forced to buy back and close their positions→ pushing the price up. So today's big bullish candlestick is likely not just because funds are optimistic about AI games, but also with a very obvious short-squeeze component. But AKE has a risk that must be mentioned. Its maximum supply is...#21 Financial Institutions Plan to Launch Dollar Stablecoin Circle's stock dropped 6% because 21 banks announced: Dollar stablecoin, issued by ourselves. ▪️ Company formation in the second half of 2026, launch in the first half of 2027 ▪️ 17 systemically important banks including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citibank, Deutsche Bank, UBS... ▪️ Compliance with GENIUS + MiCA, targeting the window when the January legislation takes effect ▪️ Market size 303 billion, USDT accounts for 60% alone The disagreement is not about whether they can issue it, but whether anyone will use it once issued. Société Générale issued a dollar coin last year, circulating 12.5 million — a banking license does not automatically equal demand. USDT's moat is ten years of liquidity and 200,000 trading pairs, not a compliance certificate. BTC perspective: This is the foundation, not the ammunition. A product launching only in 2027 won't affect this week's market, but The wider the compliance capital pipeline, the bigger the BTC pool — a long-term narrative, not a short-term signal. Will bank-issued coins shake USDT, or is this just another Société Générale moment?STX doubled in two weeks, but I want to wait until after September 10 to buy more The market is currently hyping Stacks' "institutional-grade Bitcoin Staking," but after checking the official schedule, I found that the actual Genesis Bond is expected to launch on September 10, with registration closing on September 9, and the first batch of rewards coming even later. More importantly: the first phase is only open to pre-approved institutions, and the BTC capacity is deliberately limited. HashKey Cloud has confirmed participation, and Fordefi also provides institutional-grade self-custody support, which means the infrastructure is real, but the first phase still feels more like a small-scale pilot test rather than a flood of big money rushing in immediately. STX has recently risen from about 0.128 to 0.257, with the price already trading future expectations. My trading direction is very short-term: I will consider following the trend only if it stabilizes above 0.27; if it falls back below 0.24, I will wait. If the coin price has already doubled but the product's first phase is still limited, would you buy based on expectations or wait for the real BTC lock-up data to come out?#21 Financial Institutions Plan to Launch USD Stablecoin According to recent industry developments, 21 global financial institutions including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citibank, Fidelity, Deutsche Bank, UBS, and others have jointly announced plans to launch a USD stablecoin in the first half of 2027. The alliance spans North America, Europe, East Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. This is not a trial; they are directly establishing a joint venture company with a clear goal to go live in the first half of 2027. Their real ace is choosing to issue on a public blockchain. USDT and USDC dominate the market due to first-mover advantage and distribution channels, with all exchanges, wallets, and DeFi protocols integrated with them. The banking alliance’s choice of public chains means their stablecoin can access the same infrastructure from day one. Holding trillions of dollars in customer deposits and a global payment network, once connected, the channel moat of USDT and USDC will be directly bypassed. In the short term, the collective entry of 21 Wall Street institutions equates to the highest level of compliance endorsement for the crypto industry. After ETFs, this is the second wave of institutionalization. But in the medium to long term, the true target of bank stablecoins is not BTC, but USDT and USDC. The total stablecoin market size is about $310.4 billion, with USDT accounting for $183.3 billion and USDC $73.8 billion. Wall Street is aiming at this piece of the pie. The crypto market infrastructure is upgrading, and BTC as the underlying asset will only become stronger. What do you think? $BTC $ETH $SOL #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 It's not that there are too few new coins now, but that there are too few coins that make people want to open the app ten times a day. How long has it been since you opened an app because you "wanted to use it" rather than "feared missing out"? Here's my judgment: the market has reached a point where it's no longer about blindly chasing; it's more like a time window for selecting the right feel. Those that rise sharply aren't necessarily driven by real demand, and those that fall the least aren't necessarily safe havens. The market is no longer trading on narrative freshness, but on who can retain users after the narrative fades. Recently, I've narrowed my radar to focus only on a few ecosystems that are truly building usage habits. - Bitcoin's identity has long been clear; it is the time scale of this market and needs no further explanation. - Ethereum's developer and application depth means no other Layer 1 can catch up in the short term, which determines its valuation floor. - Solana's bet is on consumer-level applications; if a breakout app really lands someday, it will be the fastest to reap the benefits. - Payment, oracles, lending, tokenization, on-chain trading—each track has its leaders, but the real gap is whether they are repeatedly called in real transactions. I don't care much about how loud a community shouts. Noise creates volatility but not dependency. I prefer to look at a few concrete things: whether daily active users are increasing, whether transaction volume is growing naturally, whether developers are continuously submitting code, whether protocol revenue can cover incentives. Also, whether there is a product that users are willing to actively recommend. Issuing a token takes only a few minutes, but building one that $BTC ETF funds have shown a clear outflow again ⚠️ The US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net outflow of about $236.5 million, with Fidelity outflowing about $43.7 million. Note, this is more accurately described as ETF fund redemptions and does not equal the fund actively dumping, but in the short term it does increase supply pressure on the spot side. Now the key is 78K: ETF selling pressure continues to expand + insufficient spot absorption → 78K may be repeatedly tested. But if it can withstand an outflow pressure of over $200 million, it actually indicates strong support below. 🔥 78K is the bulls' first pressure test. If it holds, there is still room for a rebound; if it breaks, volatility may further increase. Moreover, before the non-farm payrolls, market bets on a September rate hike have risen to about 66%, so macro pressure is also significant. #BTC #PreNonFarmDataDivergence #SeptemberRateHikeExpectationsRising #FOMC last set of data before: Nonfarm Payrolls this Friday At 20:30 Beijing time on Friday, the US August Nonfarm Payrolls will be released. This is the last major employment data before the September FOMC meeting, directly impacting the pricing of the dollar, US Treasuries, gold, BTC, and the US stock AI sector. Current background After Jackson Hole, Waller released a hawkish statement: the pace of inflation decline is insufficient, and the Federal Reserve still retains the option to raise rates. The market's pricing for a September rate hike is close to 60%. July's Nonfarm Payrolls unexpectedly turned negative (-23,000), sounding an alarm for the market. August market expectations are for about 58,000 new jobs and a 4.1% unemployment rate. The key focus is also on average hourly earnings growth, as wages are a core source of service inflation. Three scenario simulations 1. Nonfarm Payrolls and wages significantly exceed expectations Employment resilience plus wage rebound would continue to raise September rate hike expectations. US Treasury yields and the dollar would surge; gold would be under pressure, and BTC and US growth stocks would face valuation pressure, likely triggering a sharp pullback. 2. Nonfarm Payrolls weaken significantly, wages cool down Employment cools, and rate hike expectations quickly recede. The dollar and US Treasury yields decline, benefiting gold. Risk assets like BTC and US stock AI would see a short-term rebound window. 3. Data falls within expected range This would not change the overall direction; the market would remain volatile, awaiting subsequent CPI inflation data. Nonfarm Payrolls are just a precursor; inflation is Waller's true decision-making trump card.

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