Orbit Post Sitemap
**Key Focus:** Whether BTC can regain and hold above 78,000; U.S. nonfarm payroll data on September 4; Fed's September rate cut/hike expectations; U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar; whether ETH and SOL can reclaim key positions; whether the strong momentum of DeFi tokens like UNI, AAVE, and CRV can continue; the privacy track of ZEC/XMR; HYPE unlocking about 9.92 million tokens on September 6. Core Analysis: The biggest change in today's market is not BTC suddenly strengthening, but a slight easing of macro pressure, with capital beginning to seek local offensive directions again. BTC previously briefly fell below 77,000, currently oscillating back near 77,000, but still noticeably distant from 80,000. In August, BTC spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of about $3.52 billion, the strongest single-month performance since 2026, indicating institutional funds have not completely exited; however, ETF flows have shown clear fluctuations since September, meaning selling pressure above the price and macro variables still exist. (Altcoin Buzz) What really needs caution is tomorrow's U.S. nonfarm payrolls. August nonfarm data will be released on September 4, and the market is waiting for employment data to reconfirm the Fed's next move. The market's pricing for a September rate hike has clearly heated up, with some data showing probabilities above 60%; but today, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell back from the previous day's high, indicating the market has not formed a one-sided rate hike expectation. (Google) Therefore, the current market is not simply an "end of the bull market," but more like a high-level trend entering a macro phase Bitcoin Is Getting the Bid. The Rest of Crypto Isn’t. The latest ETF data is showing a divergence that deserves attention. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $101M in net inflows on September 2, while Ethereum ETFs saw roughly $48M in outflows. $BTC is holding around the $77K area after August’s 25% rally, but $ETH and several major altcoins remain under pressure. That changes how I read the current market. This does not look like institutions abandoning crypto. It looks more like capital becThe Bitcoin ecosystem has a pretty interesting characteristic:
There are a lot of old things.
Many assets haven't gone to zero and disappeared; they just quietly lie on the chain.
No one talks about them for half a year.
Then suddenly one day the trend reverses, and people start digging through their wallets again 😂
Sometimes it feels like the Bitcoin ecosystem is quite like a digital antique market.
Places like UniSat, besides trading, are occasionally used as a "warehouse rummage."
To see what you actually bought before.
Maybe one day the market will dig up some old thing again. $BTC ADP small nonfarm payroll data has been released, with private sector employment in August increasing by only 38,000, falling short of the market expectation of 47,000, marking the lowest level since January this year.
The root cause lies in sticky inflation.
Currently, the core PCE reading holds steady at 3.3%. Breaking down all 178 detailed price items, 54% of the sub-items have year-over-year increases exceeding 3%, compared to only 47% a year ago. Simply put, although employment is gradually cooling, price increases are spreading to more categories. Persistent inflation remains a stubborn problem the Federal Reserve cannot shake off.
Reuters' market consensus expects an increase of 58,000; Deutsche Bank projects 65,000; Wells Fargo and NBC forecasts go as high as 80,000. The huge gap in expectations equals the source of market volatility. As long as the final actual result deviates from the expected range, the crypto market is very likely to experience sharp fluctuations.
Three scenarios are considered for the subsequent trend of Bitcoin:
1. Nonfarm data significantly exceeds expectations: September rate hike expectations further solidify, risk assets come under pressure, and $BTC may drop to 75,000 or even 72,000;
2. Final data falls near expectations: bulls and bears reach a stalemate, the market enters a range-bound phase, with no clear short-term trend;
3. Nonfarm additions are significantly below 58,000: rate hike expectations cool rapidly, BTC has a chance to rally and challenge the 80,000 level.
Final advice: Do not bet on the nonfarm data in advance. 21 Banks Are Building a Stablecoin. The Bigger Signal Is What They Want to Control.
21 major financial institutions, including $BAC, $C, $GS and $WFC, are preparing a joint U.S. dollar stablecoin targeted for the first half of 2027.
The headline is that banks are entering crypto.
The more important signal is which part of crypto they want to own.
Stablecoins are no longer just trading instruments.
They are becoming settlement infrastructure for payments, treasury operations and digital asset transactions.
That changes the competitive landscape.
$USDT and $USDC currently dominate dollar-based on-chain liquidity. A bank-backed alternative would put traditional financial institutions directly into the race for that liquidity.
My radar is watching what happens to the infrastructure underneath.
If banks issue their own digital dollars, those assets still need blockchains, custody, interoperability, liquidity and applications.
That creates a much bigger opportunity than simply another stablecoin.
$ETH could benefit from more institutional settlement activity.
$SOL and $BNB matter because high-throughput networks can compete for payments and financial applications.
$XRP is relevant to the cross-border settlement thesis, while $LINK becomes increasingly important if financial institutions need reliable on-chain data and interoperability.
Then there is the application layer.
$AAVE, $UNI, $CRV and $PENDLE could become liquidity venues for a larger pool of tokenized dollars.
$ONDO sits directly inside the broader tokenization narrative.
And $ARB, $OP, $SUI, $APT and $AVAX are competing for the infrastructure layer where future financial activity could actually settle.
Even $BTC matters here.
Bitcoin does not need to become a payment rail for banks to benefit from this shift. If stablecoins expand the overall digital-asset economy, Bitcoin remains the primary reserve asset and liquidity benchmark inside that ecosystem.
But there is a catch.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue Dell Technologies has once again captured Wall Street's attention after its stock surged 15.81%, becoming one of the strongest movers in the S&P 500. But behind this rally lies a much bigger story: AI demand is now starting to flow from chip makers to infrastructure suppliers who build the "backbone" of the AI economy. There is an important shift happening in the U.S. stock market. Previously, investors chased companies that create AI models and chips, kWhat truly deserves attention now is not "whether institutions are still buying Crypto," but rather: where are they withdrawing funds from, and where are they redirecting their money? 👀 Recently, ETF data has shown a very interesting change: 🟠 $BTC → In early September, there was a net outflow of about $237 million, whereas on August 31, there was an inflow of about $217 million. Funds have not been continuously withdrawn unilaterally; instead, there is a clear pattern of high-frequency switching. 🔵 $ETH → Institutional demand still exists, but the flow of funds has become more cautious, with phased profit-taking following continuous inflows. 🟣 $SOL → Has become a highlight of recent fund rotation. On September 1, the US spot Solana ETF attracted about $102 million, far exceeding the approximately $925,000 on the previous trading day, indicating that some institutions are actively seeking opportunities beyond BTC. 🔥 This may not be Capital Outflow, but Capital Rotation. Funds are gradually spreading from relatively crowded core assets to assets with higher Beta and higher risk-reward ratios. Meanwhile, the macro environment still cannot be ignored: 🇺🇸 The US 10-year Treasury yield remains high 🛢️ Brent crude oil stays around $95–$97 📈 Market expectations for a Fed rate hike in September have risen to about 66% 💼 Nonfarm payroll data is about to be released, which may become a key factorBitcoin Is Getting the Bid. The Rest of Crypto Isn’t.
The latest ETF data is showing a divergence that deserves attention.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $101M in net inflows on September 2, while Ethereum ETFs saw roughly $48M in outflows. $BTC is holding around the $77K area after August’s 25% rally, but $ETH and several major altcoins remain under pressure.
That changes how I read the current market.
This does not look like institutions abandoning crypto.
It looks more like capital becoming selective.
When investors want exposure to the asset class but reduce risk, $BTC is usually where liquidity concentrates first. The real test comes later: does that capital eventually rotate into higher-beta assets?
$SOL, $XRP and $BNB are therefore important to watch. Their relative strength can tell us whether the market is preparing for broader participation or simply defending Bitcoin.
My radar:
$BTC needs to hold its current structure while ETF demand remains positive.
$ETH needs to stop losing ground relative to Bitcoin.
For Layer 1s, I am watching $SUI, $APT, $AVAX and $NEAR for signs that buyers are returning beyond the majors.
In DeFi, $AAVE, $UNI and $CRV can provide a better read on whether risk appetite is reaching on-chain markets.
RWA infrastructure is another key area. $LINK and $ONDO remain on my radar because institutional adoption ultimately needs reliable infrastructure, not just speculative liquidity.
AI assets such as $TAO, $RENDER and $FET remain higher-beta expressions of risk appetite, while $ARB and $OP could show whether capital is willing to move further down the crypto risk curve.
The bigger signal is the divergence itself.
August brought strong institutional demand and a major $BTC rally.
September is asking a different question:
Will institutional demand remain concentrated in Bitcoin, or will it eventually spread across the rest of the market?
If $BTC stabilizes while altcoins begin outperforming on rising volume, that would strengthen the case for rotation.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue Today, SK Hynix closed at 1,596,000 KRW. It dipped a bit in the afternoon due to tariffs, and the current price is even lower than when the buyback started on August 20.
Moreover, since the announcement of the 40 trillion KRW buyback, the trading volume of the underlying stock has been shrinking. On August 20, the full-day volume was 5.453 million shares, but today it’s down to only 2.6285 million shares, a reduction of over 50%.
The fixed daily buyback of 650,000 shares has increased its share of the daily volume from 11.92% to 25.31%, accounting for one-quarter of the daily trading volume.
The price is still fluctuating continuously, and a direction might emerge soon. From a "carving a mark on the boat to find the sword" perspective, the probability of a rally tomorrow is relatively high. Additionally, the South Korean government has issued statements aiming to prevent adverse effects of tariffs on Korean companies.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $SNDK Macro Overview｜September Rate Hike Probability Soars, SNDK Faces a Valuation vs. Fundamentals Crossroad
On September 3rd, CME FedWatch data updated, showing a 37.7% pricing for maintaining rates in September, while the probability of a 25 basis point hike has risen to 62.3%. Market expectations for tightening are rapidly heating up. Many friends are asking, if the Fed ultimately implements a rate hike, what does it mean for $SNDK SanDisk?
From my perspective, the short-term outlook likely leans bearish. The underlying logic is straightforward: once rate hikes begin, the risk-free rate in the market rises, and high-valuation growth sectors will be the first to face valuation compression.
Since the start of this year, SanDisk has experienced a huge rally, with the AI storage sector's optimistic outlook already fully priced in by the market. Once capital starts to reduce risk appetite and shift to safe havens, high-beta storage assets like SNDK are very likely to become the primary targets for short-term profit-taking.
However, bearish does not mean the trend is over; SanDisk's fundamental support remains very solid. The latest quarterly report delivered an impressive performance: Q4 of fiscal 2026 revenue reached $8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%; among which the data center business grew 437% year-over-year. The real demand for AI server storage continues to be released, and the industry's upward cycle logic remains unchanged.
Therefore, my judgment is clear: rate hikes impact secondary market valuations but do not directly damage the company's own fundamentals. Leading data has already started to release signals. The ADP private employment report for August, released on Wednesday, showed an increase of only 38,000 jobs, below the market's previous expectation of about 47,000 to 48,000, and also lower than the upwardly revised 46,000 jobs in July, marking a relatively weak level this year, indicating that the U.S. labor market is indeed showing signs of cooling. The real test will be the U.S. August nonfarm payroll report released on September 4. The market's current core expectation is around 50,000. I have broken down the possible market scenarios for tonight/tomorrow night into three types: ① Nonfarm significantly below expectations｜Bullish for BTC 📈 Assuming new jobs are only 20,000 to 40,000. Both ADP and nonfarm weaken simultaneously, the market may further bet on economic cooling, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar come under pressure, and rate cut expectations reheat. BTC scenario: First a quick rally → break short-term resistance → if not prematurely priced in, it may form a continuation trend. But beware of a trap: worse data does not necessarily mean BTC will keep rising. If BTC has already surged significantly before the data release, the announcement may trigger a "buy the rumor, sell the news" effect, first spiking then quickly falling back. --- ② Nonfarm significantly above expectations｜BTC under pressure 📉 If new jobs come in at 70,000 to 90,000 or even higher, clearly exceeding market expectations. This means: employment resilience may be stronger than ADP suggested → rate cut expectations cool down → the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields may strengthen → risk assets face short-term pressure. BTC is more likely to experience: Brothers, although BTC and ETH are both recovering in this wave, I really feel a bit anxious for the bulls 😂
$BTC is now around 77,700, $ETH about 2398, both approaching the moving averages again on the 15-minute chart, but volume hasn't significantly increased, so I tend to see this as a weak recovery rather than a new major rally.
The real risk now lies in the news. Yesterday, ADP employment only increased by 38,000, clearly below the expected 48,000, indicating that US employment is indeed cooling down; but on the other hand, oil prices remain above $90, inflation pressure hasn't fully eased, and the market's expectation for a 25bp Fed rate hike in September has been pushed back to around 67%.
More importantly, the August nonfarm payrolls are about to be released, with the market currently expecting an increase of about 50,000–60,000 jobs and an unemployment rate around 4.1%.
So really, don't get excited just because prices have risen a few hundred dollars; the nonfarm payrolls are the big test this week. If the nonfarm data is significantly stronger than expected and rate hike expectations continue to rise, BTC might retest 76,000 or even lower; for ETH, I’m focusing on the 2400 level—if it breaks below and can't recover, bears will clearly dominate.
Conversely, if the nonfarm data is significantly weaker than expected and rate hike expectations cool down, this current recovery could suddenly turn into a real rebound.
My current stance: no chasing shorts, no blindly chasing longs, just watching the nonfarm first. This market right now feels like—the bulls just caught their breath, and the bears are already sharpening their knives at the door 😂
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 $CORE was originally scheduled for 11:00 → postponed to 17:00 the same day → further delayed to 11:00 on September 4. The exchange's two delays in opening deposits and withdrawals are essentially risk-avoidance measures.
After the hard fork vulnerability incident, on-chain accounting anomalies and leftover issues from token issuance have not been fully resolved. The exchange prefers to keep postponing rather than hastily open channels and bear the risk of asset disputes.
Previously, the direct shutdown of CORE's on-chain earning products was the first-level statement; now, the repeated delays in deposit and withdrawal maintenance are a second-level signal.
The platform will not publicly express a bearish view on the project, but these two actions combined have already raised CORE's risk level in practice.
The market understands this silent stance:
Originally, everyone expected the unlocking of deposits and withdrawals to bring a bullish trend. As the delays continue, capital realizes the exchange's deep concerns, and funds betting on positive outcomes gradually withdraw.
Even if deposits and withdrawals open smoothly at 11:00 tomorrow, it will no longer be a pure positive. The market will be cautious, worried that other hidden risks may emerge later, significantly weakening the rebound strength, and it is possible that a large amount of tokens will be sold off through the channel opening.When a pawn rushes to the promotion square and transforms into a queen, the value on the game record instantly multiplies by dozens of times, yet a grandmaster's pupils linger on that square for only a fraction of a second—the real calculation has long surpassed the promotion square, landing on the fragile protective line behind. Polymarket, with a $21 billion valuation promotion, is exactly such a striking yet far from concluded move.
The red side has just made the first move of the opening: seeking a $1 billion new investment to let 1789 Capital cut in along the diagonal. Don't pay too much attention to that roughly $300 million figure; in the game, this is called a probing exchange—deploying one wing but aiming at the entire diagonal. Political family funds entering the prediction market are like moving a rook onto an open file, aiming not just at the immediate square but to exert long-term restraint on the opponent in the middlegame.
But if you only focus on the financing amount, it's like a rough player calculating only the next three moves. Grandmasters know that short-term trading volume is merely a false threat in the opening phase—no matter how loud the noise, it cannot set the tone of the position. The real power gathering in the shadows is always the coordination of pieces: whether the user growth path is clear, whether liquidity forces can occupy the two most critical diagonals. Polymarket must move under the referee's watchful eye and prove within regulatory boundaries that it can activate more pieces. Otherwise, this high valuation throne is like the overly aggressive bishop in the Spanish Opening: seemingly controlling the center at first glance, but once the order is disrupted, it becomes a prelude to a middlegame collapse.
Regulation is the rule of the game; independent market rules and governance are the pawns passing through the endgame. You can ignore the coordination of pawns for the sake of a superficial "check," but the real danger lies in those seemingly stable protracted battles. If the platform sacrifices the mandatory constraints of governance for expansion, it leaves its king isolated on the central line: when the endgame arrives, every distant pawn could become a spear aimed at the king's wing.
XINTC on the edge of the board is like a flank pawn; every market signal makes it tremble like the second hand hanging on the chess clock. It is a link in the overall pawn chain, with promotion potential, but always subject to the pace of the central pawns' advance. Whenever Polymarket's valuation story stirs, capital sentiment quickly transmits along the flank to it, but this does not mean the pawn itself has an independent fate. What truly determines whether it can promote is who controls the open files and who occupies the secondary back rank over dozens of moves in the middlegame.
At present, this financing move has not yet fully landed, but the air is already filled with the smoke of the middlegame. Many onlookers are still counting how high the valuation hat is, while the true players are already bowing their heads studying: if the regulatory piece, an out-of-position piece, suddenly cuts diagonally into the flank, which piece will be the first to be pinned on the needle tip?
The next move in this game is not to gain half a point first, but to decide which side's king will be forced to leave its last shelter. #polymarket21bvaluationWhy is SanDisk now possibly a "game-changing" buying opportunity?
When a stock surges nearly 30 times in a year and then pulls back over 30% from its peak, most people's first reaction is to "sell at the top." But I believe this might actually be the market's biggest misunderstanding of SanDisk.
Why? Because the market is still viewing it through the old lens of a "storage chip cyclical stock," but SanDisk has quietly transformed itself into a "rent-collecting" tech company through a new business model (NBM). With $94 billion in long-term contracts covering half of its capacity through 2027, this means its revenue and profits for the next two years are almost "locked in," like a continuously flowing cash stream. More importantly, its Q3 gross margin reached 78.4%—this is not data typical of a chip company, but that of a software company.
Yes, short-term price hikes have slowed and inventory is disrupted, but if you look ahead to 2027, AI's consumption of storage is only halfway up the mountain. When the market finally realizes that SanDisk's profits no longer fluctuate wildly with the cycle, the TTM P/E ratio just above 20 and the forward P/E of only 7 will seem absurdly cheap.
Sometimes, the biggest opportunities are not in overlooked corners but on the eve of a consensus being overturned. SanDisk might just be that "new species" being repriced right now.WTI crude oil has risen nearly 9% over three days, climbing to around $91 before entering a sideways range, while Brent has stabilized above $95. This round of increases is not purely speculative but supported by real supply and demand factors. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has significantly contracted, with the number of transit vessels well below average, and Iran has expanded its list of restricted vessels; meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories dropped sharply by 4.5 million barrels in a single week. The $95 Brent price already includes a dual premium for geopolitical risk and actual supply tightness.
The reason oil prices have not continued to surge is due to another market game possibility: the U.S. has stated that military actions will not last long, and no new large-scale conflicts have erupted recently. Funds are beginning to bet on expectations of easing tensions, so the geopolitical premium is temporarily not expanding further.
There are two possible scenarios ahead: if Hormuz shipping remains restricted and Iran continues to limit tanker passage, the probability of Brent challenging $96–100 will significantly increase; if the conflict cools down and shipping resumes, the war premium from this round of increases will gradually recede.
For the crypto market, the key is whether oil prices can hold long-term at $90–95. Sustained high oil prices will increase inflationary pressure, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance, pushing up U.S. Treasury yields, and suppressing BTC and highly elastic altcoins. The real focus is not the daily rise or fall of oil prices but whether $95 can shift from a short-term conflict price to a medium- to long-term oil price benchmark. $BTC $ETH $SOL #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 A steel beam hangs suspended in mid-air, its base not yet poured into the concrete core tube—this is my first-person perspective when looking at the latest on-chain data of Robinhood Chain. The master plan is extensive, but under the tower crane, there is still no pile foundation acceptance report.
The Dune dashboard records nearly $1.9 billion in decentralized trading volume over 24 hours. Ordinary people might think this is the topping out of the main structure. But at the subcontractor morning meeting, I asked: Is this a permanent load or temporary stockpiling? Is it the structure's self-weight, or wind vibration transmitted through scaffolding fasteners? Another settlement sheet shows $3.38 million in daily on-chain revenue, placing this chain above the floor height of most public chains. Yet no matter how high the crane arm extends, it can never replace the concrete strength grade.
Some hold Arbitrum’s design blueprint and say: the foundation is ready, the team is mature. Indeed, the load-bearing system comes from Arbitrum’s framework model tested under extreme conditions, equivalent to the old design institute licensing the original structural calculation book to a new project. Robinhood Chain is formwork pouring on someone else’s foundation while paying licensing fees to Arbitrum DAO. This money is like patent royalties for a master’s design node, arriving on time, adding a layer of real cash flow to ARB’s revenue narrative. From an engineering management perspective, this is a good example: no blind excavation of foundation pits, no overturning of predecessors’ standards for the sake of in-house development.
But what really made me put on a hard hat and enter the enclosure were the main heat sources supplied by meme coins like CashCat and Pons. To architects, they are merely decorative loads. Like the glass curtain wall on the facade, reflecting golden light under the sun and scrolling LED subtitles at night, the load path completely bypasses the main structure. If a building’s value imagination relies entirely on the curtain wall, when a liquidity earthquake hits, the first to shatter will be that entire glass ruin.
Then look at the US stock token called XEWY, recently also brought to the site by crane as a weather vane, like a helium balloon-tied promotional pillar, rattling in the wind. Veteran engineers know: the more vivid the balloon in the rendering, the less functional area the real project has. XEWY now looks more like a jade green landscape lamp at the edge of the sales office model—it lights the curved path on the lawn but cannot illuminate the standard floor’s bay depth. When drawing, the worst taboo is wrapping an unreinforced structural column with 8mm dry-hung marble; behind the stone there is no shear-resistant node, and a moderate earthquake will peel off all the exterior.
At nightfall, I placed the rebound hammer on the steepest market climb curve. The rebound value only jumps on the surface, unable to measure the estimated strength of the internal concrete. Every dollar of revenue this chain makes now is like a thin veneer laid on an un-cured concrete slab. Before the 28-day compressive strength report is stamped, all “structural safety” green certifications are just temporary tower crane permits without supervisor signatures. #RobinhoodChainRevenue Bitcoin is holding around $77K, but the macro trade is shifting.
Weak U.S. jobs data, softer yields, and a weaker dollar should support risk assets—yet markets still see a meaningful chance of a September Fed hike.
A strange setup is forming: bad data may no longer be simply bullish or bearish. 👀
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue I'm Cige. I set up a BZ short position at $100, with a clear logical chain and resonance from technical, fundamental, and macro perspectives. Let's first look at what the $100 level means. After the US-Iran conflict escalated, Brent crude briefly climbed back above $90, and the Hormuz risk premium re-entered. Some analysts clearly point out that after the crude oil market enters the $100 mark, a potential "oil price—inflation—rate hike" closed loop is forming, and historically, oil prices around $100 often face dual pressures from demand disruption and supply-side responses. Max Layton, Head of Global Commodity Research at Citi, previously pointed out that if oil prices remain above $100, global oil demand could decrease by about 500,000 barrels per day, and inventories will begin to rebuild. $100 is the most extreme area for the divergence between bulls and bears. Technicals: Dual Pressure Resonance First, $100 is a key psychological and technical resistance level. After a rapid rebound above $90, oil prices reached the $100 mark, indicating that the momentum for previous rebounds is waning. Second, ICE Brent speculative net long positions have fallen from extreme levels but remain elevated. Once geopolitical risk premiums are cleared, the bullish push will be extremely fierce. Third, technical indicators show signs of bearish divergence on the weekly chart. Oil prices hit new highs but momentum has not been confirmed simultaneously, indicating accumulating reversal risks. Fundamentals: The supply-demand balance is tipping. OPEC+ is expected to gradually increase production starting in October, with Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia submitting production cut compensation plans starting September 2026. IEA data showsArthur Hayes recently made his views very clear.
He remains bullish on BTC and has set a more aggressive target for ETH: $10,000 by the end of 2026. His core logic behind this is the potential for global liquidity to expand again. Meanwhile, he continues to be optimistic about ecosystems like Ethena and Ether.fi.
But I think the most interesting aspect of this viewpoint is not whether "$10,000 can be reached."
It's why he groups ETH together with ENA and ETHFI.
If liquidity truly releases again in the future, capital usually doesn't just seek one asset but spreads down the risk curve.
BTC absorbs liquidity first.
ETH follows.
Then later, it's DeFi and high-risk assets' turn.
So what’s really worth watching isn’t how many targets Arthur Hayes sets.
It’s whether the market will have enough liquidity to support these targets going forward.
Targets can be bold.
Without enough money, they’re just numbers.
$BTC $ETH $ENA #FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
Stop pretending! Who's swimming naked among BTC, ETH, and ARB?
$BTC is stubbornly holding on, waiting for nonfarm payrolls to save it. It can't break through 78000, worse than expected. The market is now focused on Friday's nonfarm payrolls—if it crashes again, the FOMC will definitely back down, and expectations of easing could pull $BTC up. But look at its 0.77% gain, like constipation, no one dares to rush in. Big players are waiting for direction, retail investors are waiting to break even, and sideways trading at high levels is just a dull knife cutting flesh.
$ETH rose 0.55%, even worse than BTC, clearly a follower. Layer2 is fighting for attention, mainnet gas fees are pitifully low, deflation? Nonexistent. Institutions like BlackRock only recognize BTC; $ETH is now a "secondary asset." In the short term, it can only ride on macro sentiment—if nonfarm payrolls are good, it goes up; if bad, it falls harder. Don't talk to me about the ecosystem, no one cares about technology now, only capital games. Ethereum to turn around? Wait until next year.
$ARB surged 17%? Beware of a retail trap. Robinhood chain volume exploded, ARB's revenue narrative is hyped to the sky, a 17% rise in one day is indeed fierce. But brother, this thing has shallow liquidity, the whales pump without blinking. Fundamentals? Revenue did increase, but how much is wash trading? How much is real demand? Once the hype fades, the pullback can bruise your face. Short-term you can bet on sentiment, but don't really believe in any "L2 leader value revaluation," falling back to the starting point is just a matter of two days.
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Dell exceeded expectations, Broadcom exceeded expectations, and Snowflake surged 21%.
Three earnings reports prove one thing: demand for AI hardware and software is expanding, but the market only rewards those who exceed expectations, not those who just meet them.
Broadcom's AI semiconductor revenue reached 16.7 billion, but the guidance for the next quarter is slightly lower, causing a 6% drop in after-hours trading. This shows that the AI sector's valuation is already fully priced in, and institutions are scrutinizing earnings details much more strictly than before.
The logic behind Snowflake's 21% rise is clearer: product revenue grew 37%, and the number of CoCo tool accounts surged to 9,100. AI features are driving increased customer usage, which is exactly the signal the market wants to see.
The sector's rhythm is now very clear. The AI infrastructure chain is expanding, but only stocks that deliver numbers exceeding expectations can rise.
HPE and NetApp need to keep up with this pace, or even if the overall sector sentiment is good, individual stocks will be treated differently.
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 💥💥💥Pre-Nonfarm Preview
The market expects an increase of 55,000–58,000 (disagreement 50,000–80,000), unemployment rate at 4.1%, and year-over-year hourly wages at 3.1%. July unexpectedly -23,000, May and June revised down by a total of 103,000, with the baseline revision further lowered by 79,000.
Note the direction is reversed: after Wash's hawkish remarks, the market is betting on a September rate hike (probability about 57%), not a rate cut.
Projection: Data exceeding 80,000 + stronger hourly wages → rate hike probability breaks 75%, USD and US Treasury yields rise, bearish for stocks and crypto; below 50,000 or unemployment rate rising above 4.2% → rate hike expectations quickly cool down, risk assets rebound and catch a breather. #Robinhood chain volume surge, ARB revenue narrative heats up
Robinhood chain's single-day fees hit a new high of $3.75 million, with 10% of the revenue flowing back to Arbitrum DAO according to the revenue-sharing rule, bringing about $377,000 income to the treasury in one day. $ARB current price is 0.124, with a 24h increase of 14.78%, and trading volume significantly expanded; $BTC is at 77012, the market fluctuates within a range, with funds favoring L2 assets that have real yields.
Market consensus
The bullish view holds that continuous revenue sharing from external chains turns $ARB from a pure governance token into a cash-flow-generating asset, requiring a revaluation; the cautious perspective points out that the current hype mainly comes from Meme trading, and fees will fall as the hype fades, while unlocking selling pressure still exists, so the positive effects are easily realized and then decline.
Underlying logic analysis
The Orbit authorization model opens new revenue streams for Arbitrum, but currently traffic heavily depends on Meme speculation, which is a short-term pulse income; whether it can be sustained long-term depends on subsequent business flow, not just single-day highlight data.
Personal view (personally leaning towards a gradual return of the bull market, just a personal opinion, not investment advice)
The narrative logic is solid, but prices have already risen in the short term, so I won’t chase the highs and will wait for a pullback, continuously monitoring the actual sustainability of on-chain fees.Is it a retreat or a portfolio adjustment?
BTC fell below $77,000, spreading panic, but the claim of "capital leaving the market" might be too hasty.
A key signal has been overlooked: while BTC ETFs are seeing net outflows, ETH ETFs have been attracting funds for several consecutive days. This doesn’t look like a full-scale retreat but rather an organized "position shift."
BTC led the rally earlier with huge profit-taking, so a pullback is a natural part of market dynamics. The real risk signal isn’t price decline but a "double kill"—meaning BTC falls and ETH follows with even greater weakness. However, ETH’s current relative strength actually proves that funds haven’t fled the crypto market; they are just seeking new value opportunities.
This seems more like a rehearsal for a mainline rotation. BTC’s pause gives ETH and other ecosystems a breather. If ETH can maintain steady capital inflows, then overall market risk appetite hasn’t decreased; the focus is just shifting.
Next, closely watch whether BTC outflows slow down and if ETH inflows sustain. If the answer is yes, then the current dip is merely preparation for the next rally. In a bull market, many down days occur, but rotation reveals the real strength. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 $BTC $ETH $SOL Is the cycle about to change? Willy Woo says Bitcoin is breaking away from the four-year curse and shifting to a 6-8 year cycle My first reaction was: here we go again, finding excuses for long-term holding? But thinking it over new supply drops from 0.8% to 0.4% The halving impact really feels more like a tickle now What’s truly changing is the external environment The traditional market’s debt cycle is pulling Bitcoin into its orbit The four-year cycle is the miners’ game The eight-year cycle $SOL's recent macro sentiment has continuously suppressed the market, causing high-volatility sector assets to collectively retreat. $SOL has accordingly corrected back to the key $100 level.
This round of decline is not due to weakness in the coin itself but is entirely a concentrated venting of external macro sentiment:
Escalation of US-Iran geopolitical conflict, oil prices stabilizing above $95, US Treasury yields surging to a high of 4.8%, market risk aversion intensifying, with funds first selling off the most elastic growth coins.
Therefore, SOL's single-day drop of over 3% far exceeds Bitcoin's volatility, representing a typical macro-driven oversell.
However, short-term sentiment-driven sell-offs cannot overshadow the solid structural benefits arriving at the end of the month.
Many focus only on the current panic-driven sell-off, neglecting the critical time window on September 28—
Solana's major annual upgrade, Alpenglow, is about to officially launch and activate.
This is not an ordinary minor version optimization but a complete reconstruction of the network consensus mechanism.
The brand-new Votor+Rotor architecture replaces the historically proven TowerBFT system, compressing the original 12.8-second transaction finality to 150 milliseconds, achieving near-instant confirmation; simultaneously, it clears a large amount of redundant on-chain voting data, significantly freeing up block space and reducing network congestion, directly addressing the long-standing lag and delay issues troubling SOL. This is the biggest technical iteration in the ecosystem this year. The market has started to recover, with BTC at 77832 and ETH at 2402, up 0.69% and 0.47% respectively.
The ADP data of 38,000 is still being digested, and the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped from 66% to 62%. Although the decline is small, the direction is right.
The CME data is clear, and expectations of cooling employment are gradually eroding the confidence for rate hikes. This rebound in BTC and ETH is a direct response to the easing of macro pressure.
Structurally, ETH has not continued to sell off with increased volume below 2400, indicating that the bears are also becoming cautious.
However, a reminder: today's ADP is just the appetizer; Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the main course. If the data continues to weaken, BTC and ETH are very likely to seize the opportunity to surge back above 80000 and 2500. Moreover, yesterday Robinhood Chain's trading volume exceeded 1.28 billion, with Meme coins and AI tokens becoming active again, showing increasingly clear signs of a sentiment bottom.
In the short term, my strategy is bullish. Good data is positive, but bad data is not necessarily negative. Let's wait through this week and see.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 ETH is stuck around 2400, caught in a dilemma, and liquidity is starting to loosen up
ETH is currently at $2,404, up slightly less than 0.5% in 24 hours. The intraday low was 2,356 and the high was 2,419, with volatility narrowing to just over $60. The weekly chart shows a drop of nearly 4.4%, while the monthly chart is up 29%—August’s rally was too strong, and September is now digesting profits.
There was an issue on the ETF side.
The Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $48 million yesterday, ending a streak of 12 consecutive trading days of net inflows. The previous 11-day streak accumulated $1.6 billion in inflows, the longest streak since July 2025. Institutions haven’t fled far but are clearly waiting for a clearer signal—the nonfarm payrolls report tomorrow night.
Macro factors are the real variable.
The market is currently pricing in a 66% chance of a rate hike in September. The consensus forecast for nonfarm payrolls is an increase of 58,000 jobs—if the data is strong, rate hike expectations will increase, and ETH may test the 2,370 support again; if the data is weak, the rate hike probability will fall, giving ETH a chance to rebound above 2,500.
In the short term, 2,370 is the bottom line; if it doesn’t hold, look for 2,200. The resistance zone above is between 2,420 and 2,450. It’s likely to consolidate within this range before Friday, so avoid opening random positions.
For reference only, not investment advice.
$ETH #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 BTC ETF faces another $236.5 million redemption! The 78K support line becomes the dividing line between bulls and bears
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of about $236.5 million on Tuesday, with Fidelity FBTC bleeding $43.7 million in a single day, Ark 21Shares and Bitwise each experiencing outflows exceeding $60 million, marking three consecutive days of net redemptions.
Note: ETF redemptions mean clients are reducing positions, not fund dumping, but BTC flowing back into the spot market does create supply pressure. The current focus is clear—the 78K support level is under pressure again.
Why is 78K critical? It is the dense chip area since the March rebound and also the average cost line for bulls. If the spot market fails to hold, this level is easily pierced repeatedly, triggering stop-loss orders and amplifying volatility; conversely, if the $236 million selling pressure is absorbed and the price stabilizes, it proves strong support below.
On-chain data shows increased net BTC inflows to exchanges, but stablecoin reserves are rising simultaneously, indicating funds are waiting for better prices. Over the past week, ETFs have cumulatively outflowed over $500 million, while BTC has only corrected about 4%, a relatively limited drop, suggesting off-exchange buying has not collapsed.
78K is the bulls' first pressure test. If the selling pressure can be firmly absorbed, the short squeeze during the rebound will be even stronger—the market often re-prices at the most pessimistic consensus. $BTC $ETH $SOL
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #RobinhoodChainRevenue Robinhood Chain’s volume keeps climbing, but I’m more interested in where the activity is actually coming from 👀
Dune shows around $1.89B in 24-hour DEX volume, while DeFiLlama puts daily chain revenue near $3.38M—higher than most major chains. Since it uses Arbitrum’s stack, the activity also generates licensing income for Arbitrum DAO.
That makes the growth meaningful beyond Robinhood itself. Still, Meme tokens such as CashCat and Pons reportedly drive much of the volume, so it’s difficult to know how much reflects lasting RWA demand versus short-term speculation 🐱
OKX’s built-in DEX now supports Robinhood Chain tokens with zero-gas-fee perks, which may reduce friction and attract more users. But incentives can boost activity without proving retention.
The numbers are impressive. The real test is whether revenue and usage remain after the novelty, subsidies and Meme attention cool down.Filecoin has recently reintroduced the "AI + decentralized storage" concept, and despite the overall market weakness, FIL has shown clear relative strength. 📌 Why the sudden strength? On one hand, the market has resumed speculation on AI data infrastructure. AI model training increasingly demands massive data storage, verification, and retrieval, and Filecoin is being repackaged as a "decentralized data layer." Coupled with the ongoing progress of Filecoin Onchain Cloud, the market is starting to label it as AI Storage + DePIN + Web3 data infrastructure again. On the other hand, FIL's recent rise is not solely based on hype. On September 2, FIL surged rapidly by over 15%, breaking through the previously long-suppressed price range of $0.76–$0.80, with a noticeable increase in trading volume and a simultaneous rise in derivatives open interest, indicating that this rally has indeed attracted short-term capital inflows. 🔥 What truly deserves attention is the supply side. The market has also been preemptively trading on expectations of changes in the supply structure in October and the end of early investor unlocks. If the pressure from new supply decreases while AI storage demand continues to grow, FIL's supply-demand dynamics could improve. However, it is important not to equate "halving expectations" directly with "guaranteed price increase." One of Filecoin's biggest past challenges has been supply growth.Funds are starting to shift seats, why is gold moving first? Gold has surged back above $4400 in the past two days, but don’t just focus on the nearly 10-ton daily increase in gold ETFs. This looks more like funds are relocating. Recently, US Treasury yields have fallen, the dollar is loosening, plus the ADP employment data was weak, and the nonfarm payroll report is coming up on Friday, causing rate cut expectations to swing again. The "nonfarm" data itself has made investors more cautious abouThe market hasn't been quite right these past two days.
$BTC and $ETH both pulled back, $SOL is stuck in place, but ZEC is skyrocketing. Exchange platform tokens like BNB and OKB neither fall nor rise, staying very stable.
I've seen this pattern too many times.
In every cycle, whenever mainstream coins take a breather and sentiment tightens, funds instinctively hide in two places: one is "narrative assets" with stories (this round it's privacy coins and RWA), the other is "cash flow assets" supported by real business (platform tokens). This is not a coincidence; it's a conditioned reflex in position switching.
My biggest lesson early on was: when a sector suddenly surges, my first reaction was "Am I missing out?" and I chased in, only to buy at the peak of the most euphoric sentiment. Later I realized—the sector rotation itself is not a signal; it's just a thermometer of sentiment. What really matters is the reason behind the rotation: this time it looks more like macro pressure (rate hike expectations, rising US Treasury yields) forcing funds to seek safe havens, which is different from "the sector's fundamentals suddenly improving."
So, I tend to interpret the recent market action as structural risk aversion under macro disturbance, not a signal for the start of a new rally. Market pullbacks and local sector exuberance are often two sides of the same coin. Experienced players usually "watch the show without entering," waiting for key data to land and sentiment to cool before deciding the direction.
Have you been chasing the rotation these past two days, or holding your position? Let's discuss in the comments. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #GoldETFAdds10Tons Gold has regained momentum as weaker US employment indicators reduced confidence in further monetary tightening. Spot gold moved back above $4,400 per ounce, while investor demand through exchange-traded funds continued strengthening. One of the latest market updates indicates that ETF holdings added approximately ten tonnes, reinforcing the view that institutional demand is joining central-bank and physical-market buying.
ETF accumulation matters because it converts investor interest into demand for bullion held by fund custodians. However, gold can still face short-term pressure if Friday’s payroll report pushes Treasury yields and the dollar higher. My view is that recent inflows improve gold’s structural outlook, but the rally has become increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic surprises. Investors should follow real yields, currency movements and whether ETF additions continue for several weeks. A single large inflow can reflect portfolio rebalancing; persistent accumulation would provide stronger evidence of a durable allocation shift.NVIDIA's market cap surged back to 5.4 trillion overnight, who is Jensen Huang's "AI economics" fooling?
NVIDIA rose 3.21% yesterday, with its market cap returning to 5.4 trillion USD. Jensen Huang started hyping his "AI economics" again at the G20.
$xNVDA closed at $224.41, with a market cap increase of over 1 trillion RMB in one day, just 5% shy of the all-time high of $236. At the G20 Innovation Ministers' meeting, Jensen Huang declared: computing power is already national infrastructure, and in the coming years, the goal is AGI. The biggest risk for countries is not AI itself, but "not investing enough in and adopting AI, getting left behind." His exact words: "Computing power equals revenue, tokens equal productivity." I have to admit, that's a compelling pitch.
But with the 10-year US Treasury yield at 4.8%, high valuations rely on "discounted future cash flows," and when interest rates rise, AI stocks with 48x PE ratios are hit first. NVIDIA's quarterly revenue of 96.2 billion and guidance of 108 billion are solid, but at a 5 trillion market cap scale, even a 1% fluctuation means a 24 billion USD market cap loss. My stance: I believe in the long-term AI theme, but I won't chase this level in the short term. I'll wait for US Treasury yields to fall or for earnings to confirm. The long-term is gold; don't catch a falling knife at the emotional peak. Reviewing nearly two months of trading records at the beginning of September, an unexpected discovery was that the largest drawdown did not come from chasing highs and selling lows, but rather from two seemingly safe bottom-fishing trades in $ICP and $DYDX. At the time, I thought the price had bottomed out and entered to buy, but the downside space far exceeded expectations. This made me realize that struggling against the price is a major taboo when opening positions; the cheaper it seems, the easier it is to fall into traps, as the bottom of such assets is often unfathomably deep.
The plan moving forward is to adjust the approach: only do short-term small swings in contracts, and gradually shift the main position towards spot holdings. Recently, $ARB, $OP, and $INJ have consistently been in my watchlist among the top gainers. I am especially focused on $INJ, which has a market cap just over two billion. After the upgrade from 1.0 to 2.0, the ecosystem has clearly warmed up, and cross-chain interaction smoothness has improved significantly. Once this round of market adjustment ends, I plan to find suitable entry points to accumulate spot positions in batches. ARB and OP, as representatives of L2, have solid fundamentals, but the field is crowded with new projects emerging continuously, causing existing funds to be diluted. Their short-term explosive potential is limited, and the current price level offers little room for entry.
Furthermore, BTC is consolidating at a high level, exchange rates continue to exert pressure, and the altcoin season has yet to arrive. The risk-reward ratio of heavy positions now is not favorable. Rather than betting on breakouts in altcoin contracts, it is better to patiently dollar-cost average spot holdings, exchanging time for space. I’d like to hear which approach everyone prefers in actual practice? Risk reminder: the market is highly volatile, the above is only personal reflection and does not constitute investment advice. Please make decisions cautiously. $INJ $ARB $OP $ICP $DYDX$CORE deposits were originally scheduled to open at 11:00, but the opening has now been pushed back to 5:00 PM, with no detailed explanation from the official side beyond the updated announcement. That delay has sparked two main theories. First: a technical issue.
The token issuance bug may not be fully resolved, on-chain asset verification could still be incomplete, and the exchange may simply be unwilling to reopen deposits before everything is properly checked. Second: the market impact.
A laThe United States is attempting to use military cover to massively export crude oil before the midterm elections, alleviating pressure both domestically and from allies, once again proving that the current military strikes are primarily for "escort" purposes. As of this afternoon, the most notable news is that after the U.S. Secretary of Energy announced on Monday that 17 million barrels of oil were transported through the Strait of Hormuz in a single day, U.S. media revealed that on Tuesday, 40 merchant ships were escorted through the strait, with daily energy output reaching as high as 18 million barrels. The core issue is that Kpler's data on the same day shows the number of ships passing through the strait on Wednesday dropped to 4, indicating a discrepancy between the two data sets. My personal analysis is that if the U.S. were only "talking big" and continuously launching military strikes, it wouldn't make much sense. Instead, I believe the most reasonable explanation is that airstrikes are being used to escort, with indeed a large number of ships passing through, while Kpler's detected data only includes ships with active tracking. If the U.S. military escort requires ships to turn off their tracking systems, this would likely cause the data discrepancy. As mentioned earlier, there is a reason for the U.S. military escort: the core is to provide a supply buffer for the energy market before the November 3 midterm elections, trying to export as much crude oil as possible recently, which is also Trump's short-term preparation for giving up the strait. As for how the strikes on Iran will proceed after the midterm elections, it depends on whether Trump can win the midterms. If the midterms fail, Trump will be preoccupied with his own issues. Iran clearly understands the U.S. purpose, so it is trying to expand geopolitical risks as much as possible, extending counterattacks to many U.S. military bases in the Middle East and expanding geopolitical risks to Israel and Lebanon.Figure, a blockchain-based consumer lending platform company, has just completed the $717M acquisition of Kiavi, the largest residential bridge loan institution in the U.S., which will add over $7B in annual mortgage loan business and AI asset platform capabilities. Ajian specifically mentioned this to inform everyone that besides the recently popular on-chain bonds, RWA is also beginning to enter mortgages, credit, and asset services.
This acquisition will expand Figure's asset sources, but the risks in the credit business will also become more complex, with defaults, valuations, recoveries, and regulations all being transmitted on-chain. However, this is precisely the most attractive aspect of RWA's real-world attributes: the more stable the returns, the heavier the legal and credit risks.ETF funds show clear differentiation, and views within institutions are not unified
Recently, spot ETFs have shown an interesting split phenomenon: BTC ETFs experienced large single-day outflows, then reversed to inflows the next day; ETH spot ETFs have maintained continuous net inflows.
Funds are not withdrawing from the crypto market as a whole but are reallocating internally. Some institutions are moving positions out of BTC to speculate on ETH's elastic returns.
There is a common pitfall here: continuous net inflows into ETFs do not necessarily mean prices will rise.
Funds keep entering, but the coin price fails to break upward, indicating heavy selling pressure above, with large buy orders absorbed by sell orders. Chasing highs in this environment easily leads to taking over short-term profit-taking positions.
$BTC is more of a base allocation tool with relatively moderate fund flows; $ETH is a speculative elastic target for rebounds, offering higher returns in good markets but also experiencing significantly larger drawdowns than BTC when risk appetite worsens.
Do not rely solely on ETF fund data for trading; always combine it with price action and US Treasury yields for comprehensive judgment.Broadcom down, Snowflake up and I think this is a pretty interesting snapshot of where the AI trade is heading.
For a long time, almost anything connected to AI infrastructure could move together. But now the market seems much more selective. Broadcom can deliver strong AI exposure and still face pressure when expectations are already extremely high, while Snowflake can attract attention if investors see stronger momentum in cloud data and AI software.
Personally, I actually like seeing this kind of divergence. It suggests the market is starting to look beyond the simple “AI = buy everything” story and asking harder questions about valuation, growth and how companies are actually monetizing AI.
It also brings me back to something I’ve been watching lately: could the next phase of the AI cycle gradually shift from hardware toward software and data?
I don’t think infrastructure is finished at all, but the winners may start becoming much more spread out.
#AVGODipsSNOWPops $BTC $CP: The Hidden Risks Behind AI Narrative Chips
$CP (Cluster Protocol) is the Base chain AI-Agent track token, having secured $7.75 million in institutional funding. It focuses on a decentralized AI computing power narrative, quickly listing on exchanges and launching perpetual contracts, attracting considerable market attention.
The project has a total supply of 5 billion tokens, with an initial circulation of 27.38% at TGE, mostly from community airdrops and liquidity pools. A large amount of airdropped tokens cost nearly zero, leading to continuous sell-offs after listing and a nearly 99% price crash. The team and VC tokens are locked with a 12-month cliff, only starting to release in April 2027, so there is no short-term institutional selling pressure.
Although the token price has sharply retraced, the fully diluted valuation (FDV) remains higher than the VC entry valuation, leaving room for institutional selling upon future unlocks. The platform offers liquidity mining, where participants earn AERO rewards but face very high impermanent loss.
The token supports contract leverage, further amplifying market volatility. The project has limited product implementation and heavily relies on AI-themed speculation. One should not blindly bottom-fish just because of the large price drop; high circulating sell pressure combined with contract risks requires extra caution when participating. The wave of AI inference is driving an explosion in enterprise-level NAND demand, significantly boosting SanDisk's performance, increasing gross margins, securing multiple large long-term agreements, and advancing stock buybacks. However, consumer-end business remains weak, and much of the current profit improvement comes from price increases in chips, with limited shipment elasticity.
📌Key highlights: Jointly launched the HBF high-bandwidth flash memory standard with SK Hynix, targeting the AI inference market, with sample delivery in the second half of 2026 and expected implementation in 2027. Note: standard release ≠ mass production; there is a time lag in commercial realization, so short-term financial contributions are unlikely.
The market is undergoing a cognitive shift: the AI narrative is no longer a mindless premium shield. Long-term agreements can buffer cycles but cannot completely erase the inherent cyclicality of the storage industry. HBF represents imaginative potential but cannot directly rewrite current profitability. The future stock price divergence essentially reflects the market's ongoing weighing between "long-term technological imagination" and "real financial report realization." Before concrete evidence of technology implementation emerges, high volatility will be the norm. Avoid directly converting long-term narratives into current earnings. $SNDK $SKHYNIX Next, I will share some news and follow-up views with everyone.
Overall, the cryptocurrency market currently shows a pattern of "institutional funds continuously entering, with short-term price fluctuations."
Bitcoin ETF fund flows have been volatile recently. Previously, there was a net inflow exceeding $2.7 billion for nine consecutive days, then it turned to net outflow briefly before quickly stabilizing again. This pullback is more of a technical correction.
Ethereum is currently the most stable performer, with ETF fund inflows continuing for more than ten trading days, and institutional allocation demand steadily accumulating.
Solana attracted the strongest monthly inflow of the year in August, but fund inflows slowed down entering September. Coupled with previous technical overheating, the short-term trend leans toward correction and consolidation.
Dogecoin lacks ETF funds as a reference, and its price movement highly follows the overall market sentiment, with relatively weak chip strength.
Ripple shows a typical "divergence between funds and price," with ETF weekly inflows hitting a new high for the year, but the price rally has not fully kept up.
Going forward, it is necessary to pay attention to whether Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF funds can continue positively, as this is the core indicator to judge the health of this consolidation; if Solana's fund inflows continue to slow, the risk of chasing prices will increase; whether the divergence between Ripple's funds and price can converge will determine if it rebounds or weakens further; Dogecoin's weak chip strength means stricter stop-loss discipline is needed in operations.
Overall, it is recommended to continue monitoring changes in fund flows and operate with stop-loss discipline, which is more important than guessing the direction. A company known for its US dollar stablecoin suddenly started doing offline translation for 19 African languages including Hausa, Yoruba, and Swahili. At first glance, it seems off-topic. But on closer thought, it’s still addressing the question Tether knows best: how do digital tools truly reach someone without stable banking, cloud services, or internet connectivity? Tether AI Research released the TranslatePsy series on September 2. AfriSLM covers 19 sub-Saharan African languages, with the smallest version having only 800 million parameters; another set of Nano models can run offline directly on phones and laptops, with translations not uploaded to third-party servers. The company’s published research claims that after quality filtering, the models can outperform much larger general models on three translation benchmarks; the smallest European language deployment is about 36MB. Don’t rush to crown these achievements just yet. The paper and model cards also acknowledge that current results rely heavily on automatic metrics and still require native experts for systematic human evaluation. Translating a travel greeting and translating medical knowledge are completely different levels of risk; dialects, cultural context, and misplaced confidence are exactly where nice average scores can easily hide issues. But I still find this very interesting. A stablecoin company doing AI isn’t necessarily trying to squeeze in another avatar in the chatbot race. Tether has cash flow from stablecoin reserves and has long faced emerging markets, cross-border payments, and infrastructure challenges.I've been observing a phenomenon 🤔, these past couple of days quite a few altcoins have already seen capital entering and supporting them, but Bitcoin BTC and Ethereum ETH are still fluctuating back and forth.
Many people wonder: altcoins have capital coming in, so why are Bitcoin and Ethereum still undergoing constant shakeouts?
The core logic is very realistic.
The current batch of capital entering is not large; it prefers to go to altcoins with smaller liquidity, where a small amount of funds can push the altcoins up.
But to drive up large mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum requires massive amounts of capital; small funds cannot leverage them.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
With only one day left before the non-farm payroll data, big money dares not make large bets directly on Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Institutions and whales are waiting for the non-farm results and are unwilling to take directional positions on BTC and ETH in advance, so it results in repeated shakeouts and stop-loss sweeps.
This creates a split situation: altcoins are first tested with capital, while Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to grind and shake out holders.
But a warning must be sounded here: altcoins moving first does not mean the main market has bottomed out.
If later Bitcoin BTC and Ethereum ETH cannot hold and break downwards, these altcoins that are currently resisting declines will also suffer catch-up drops.
The real market rally will only start after Bitcoin and Ethereum show clear signals, then the altcoin market can proceed steadily.
At this stage, don’t rush in just because altcoins are rising; keep your focus on the price action of BTC and Ethereum.Is the golden cross coming?
USDT market share is also declining
These two signals combined
I'm watching closely
Historically, there have been 12 golden crosses
The three-month average increase is 24.9%
But only 3 times lasted over a year without being broken
This means most of the time
This signal is just short-term sentiment
What really matters to me is the USDT side
Stablecoins are withdrawing
This indicates that someone is starting to move money into the market
Money is more honest than technical indicators
I trust capital flow
I don't trust charts drawn by two moving averages
How many months will this last this time?
Let's wait and see. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $BTC First, lock in the time: Friday night at 20:30 (Beijing Time) the August Nonfarm Payrolls will be released.
This is the last tough bone on employment before the September 16 FOMC meeting. This FOMC also includes the dot plot; more important than whether to raise rates is how the path is drawn.
July already gave a shot: Nonfarm Payrolls -23,000, while the expectation was about an increase of 80,000. The market consensus for August is now a rebound to 50,000–65,000, unemployment rate 4.1%–4.2%, and year-over-year hourly wages about 3%. Don’t just look at the headline; revisions, labor force participation rate, and month-over-month hourly wages are the real pricing anchors.
Interest rates are still at 3.50–3.75, unchanged for five consecutive times. But the odds of a rate hike this week have been raised back to around 60%–70% — not because employment suddenly heated up, but because inflation hasn’t come down, energy disruptions persist, and the chair’s tone is hawkish.
If Nonfarm Payrolls come in very strong, a September rate hike will shift from “possible” to “the main trade theme”; if it’s weaker again, this pricing will quickly be reversed.
One sentence for the crypto circle: strong data = dollar and real rates rise = risk appetite contracts; weak data = short end breathes easier, but don’t directly translate “weak employment” into “immediate rate cuts.” There’s also the September 11 CPI in between.
Volatility will move first before and after the release, then pricing will follow. Control leverage, don’t bet your entire position on one number #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 On September 4 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time (8:30 PM Beijing Time), the U.S. will release the August nonfarm payroll report. This is the last major employment data before the FOMC meeting on September 15–16 (which includes the economic forecast summary and dot plot).
July's nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly recorded a decline of 23,000, significantly below expectations, signaling a cooling labor market.
The market currently generally expects a slight rebound in August, with new jobs added around 50,000 to 65,000, the unemployment rate remaining near 4.1%, and average hourly earnings year-over-year possibly slowing to about 3.0%.
The current federal funds rate remains at 3.50%–3.75%, with the Federal Reserve holding steady for five consecutive times.
However, with inflation stickiness, energy disruptions, and the chair's recent hawkish remarks, the market's pricing for a 25 basis point rate hike in September has risen to over 60%. The nonfarm payrolls will not solely determine the rate decision but will significantly reshape short-term pricing.
The transmission path to the crypto market is relatively direct: if the data is significantly stronger than expected, the probability of a rate hike and the U.S. dollar often strengthen simultaneously, putting short-term pressure on risk assets; if the data weakens again or the unemployment rate rises, hawkish expectations may retreat, and volatility will likely increase first. On September 11, there is also the CPI, another key variable before the meeting. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农