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9.30, perspective from Sister Three. ZEC is the craziest coin this month, undergoing the bloodiest turnover. A giant whale bought 25,001 ZEC at an average price of 425 two months ago, and sold all on September 29, making a profit of over $27 million. Meanwhile, two addresses dormant for over 3 years woke up and deposited over 40,000 ZEC into exchanges, worth nearly $10 million. But another giant whale bought 8,605 ZEC during the crash at an average price of 1509, currently floating a loss of about $7.24 million. High-level cashing out and low-level buying are happening simultaneously, with chips shifting from early players to momentum chasers. The real signal is in ETH. This morning, “qianbaidu.eth” deposited 25.75 million USDT into exchanges within 30 minutes, while withdrawing 7,500 ETH, worth about $20.53 million. This is not asset relocation, but active spot accumulation. Exchange ETH supply is decreasing, and sell-side liquidity is being drained. ETH spot ETFs had a net inflow of $127 million yesterday, with all nine funds showing no net outflow. BlackRock’s ETHA had a single-day net inflow of $127 million, with a historical total net inflow of $13.44 billion. After two quarters of outflows, this quarter has attracted about $3.1 billion. Strategy: ETH near 2689. Continuous ETF net inflows, whale withdrawals, and exchange reserves at historic lows. 2650 is short-term support; holding it keeps the accumulation logic intact; breaking below 2550 indicates withdrawals are just short-term hedging, suggesting reducing positions and observing. The upper resistance at 2818 is key; breaking through triggers mainstream CEX short liquidations totaling $989 million. ZEC 1 Have you ever seen a high-rise building whose facade is covered with marble, but the steel reinforcement is skimped on? $ETC is exactly that building now—surging 5.92% in 24H, but the load-bearing structure simply can't support this height.
I've been drawing construction plans for twenty years, and what I fear most is this kind of "cosmetic engineering." The price has surged to 86% above the Bollinger Band middle line, with only 1.4% clearance left to the upper band—this means the scaffolding has already hit the ceiling. If you hang one more steel beam above, the whole building will become unstable. The short-term RSI reading is 65.6, like the slump flow of concrete pouring—looks still fluid but actually one step away from collapse.
What really made me pass judgment is the foundation. The long-term RSI is only 51.1, neutral to weak, indicating this building lacks a steel-reinforced concrete core tube—the whitepaper's design may look beautiful, but if the base structure and development iteration can't keep up, it's like bamboo reinforcement replacing steel. The 24H increase is just the temporary height supported by scaffolding, not the structural topping out.
My survey conclusion is straightforward: this is the final vibration before the load-bearing wall cracks. Entry is set at 7.38, 6.0% above the current price—that's the last cantilever beam for the bullish funds to grab; if they can't reach it, it's free fall. The 6.27 level below is the original foundation elevation; once the backfill soil loosens, it will directly crash back -10.0%.
📉 Short:
Entry: 7.38 (current price +6.0%)
Take Profit 1: 6.27 (-10.0%)
Take Profit 2: 6.48 (-6.9%)
Stop Loss: 8.10 (+16.3%)
Structural verification complete, this building accepts no reinforcement plans, only controlled demolition.- I've been staring at this number for a long time. Have you ever had moments when you clearly had the right direction but ended up losing to yourself? The friend mentioned in the original text had a BTC short position bottoming at 82500 but didn't exit. ETH climbed back to 2740, getting steadier each time. He said he didn't know what he was doing and was bitten by greed. When I read this sentence, my heart skipped a beat because this isn't a market issue; it's a matter of rhythm and discipline. First, the facts. The quality of this rebound has indeed changed. Previously, after a rally, there was always a pullback to confirm, giving you a chance to enter or add to shorts. This time, there's almost no decent correction; the bears are being pushed along, and the window to add to shorts is narrowing. ETH returning to 2740 itself isn't surprising; what's surprising is that each time it returns, it does so faster and with shallower retracements. This indicates that selling pressure is being gradually absorbed rather than just emotional pulses. From the main perspective of risk management, the biggest danger here isn't being wrong about the direction but having no boundaries on position size and stop loss. BTC rising from around 82500 gave shorts a comfortable unrealized profit for a while, but not taking profits means handing back control. ETH's "getting stronger each time" structure is especially unfriendly to leveraged shorts because it doesn't give you relief, only torment. The bullish path is: BTC stabilizes key levels, ETH's relative strength continues to rise, capital is willing to spread from BTC to mainstream and some altcoins, risk appetite warms up, and short covering becomes a booster. The bearish risk is: this rally lacks new volume and relies on squeezing and sentiment; once$HYPE
The price remains flat, but positions are quietly increasing; this kind of calm is the most frightening.
HYPE stayed flat for the day, with contract positions increasing by 5 points, shorts are secretly adding.
The previous high at 90 is resistance above, and 84 is the first support below.
Only when it breaks above 90 with volume can continuation be discussed; breaking below 84 is when shorts profit.
In this tight range, chasing highs is risky. Are you waiting for a direction or betting on a rebound?
The above is a market analysis and does not constitute advice. $HYPE
$HYPE ★500U Compound to 10000U★ Day 2
Initial capital: 509u
Current capital: 507u
Historical positions: Total 1, Win 0, Loss 1
Win rate: 0%
Average profit-loss ratio:
Average expectation: -1.016R
Maximum drawdown: 5%, time sequence MDD -1.02R
Maximum consecutive losses: 1 trade
Risk per trade is 1% of total capital, position size determined by loss, no greed, no fear, no heavy positions, each order is independent, no holding losing positions, no averaging down, no emotional recovery, admit mistakes, strictly follow trading discipline, survival is more important than anything
Money earned by feeling can also be lost by feeling, profit and loss share the same source
Only by standardizing trading rules, decision criteria, and execution can one break free from human weaknesses, escape the emotional harvesting loop, and turn random gambling-style trading into controllable probabilistic trading
﹉﹉﹉﹉﹉﹉﹉﹉﹉﹉﹉﹉﹉﹉﹉﹉﹉﹉﹉﹉
Current strategy is to enter early on the left side when the sideways market is about to break direction, for short-term trading
Backtested with AI over 5 years across bull and bear markets:
One-way fee 0.05%, slippage 0.1%
5500 trades, win rate 54%, profit-loss ratio 1.3:1, expectation R = 0.24R/trade, maximum drawdown -31R (31%), maximum consecutive losses 21 trades
Now validating with live trading
Purely personal record, not investment advice! Blockchain can change the financial market not because it makes existing assets more convenient, but because it allows markets to be created where it was previously too difficult to launch them.
The main limitation was not demand, but the supply of new markets.
The problem was infrastructure: listing committees, legal restrictions, and geographic fragmentation made creating a new market expensive and slow.
Blockchain changes this model. Permissionless issuance allows launching a market without the traditional permission of an intermediary.
This idea is demonstrated by perpetual futures.
To launch a perp, a reliable oracle and participants ready to take opposite sides of the deal are needed.
Therefore, a perp can be created on any asset if its risk is measurable.
This is how markets appear that previously existed only in a limited form: stocks and commodities 24/7, pre-IPO assets, macroeconomic indicators, and various RWAs.
The next stage is markets for computing power, music, sports, and social trends.
Another important point: blockchain creates not only new ways to trade existing risk but also new units of risk.
Prediction markets turn the outcome of an event into a financial contract.
Memecoins and NFT have made attention and cultural significance objects of speculative markets.
P2P lending has turned individual credit relationships into continuously assessed risk.
Of course, the permissionless model creates a lot of noise.
But instead of a commission deciding which market deserves to exist, this function is performed by demand itself.
Most will disappear, and some will become infrastructure.
The main potential of blockchain is not just tokenization of already existing assets.
It is the expansion of many new financial markets.
If previously the financial system traded what was difficult to organize, then the on-chain model allows trading what can be measured, oracled, and made bilateral.
The next big wave of the crypto market may be related not to the emergence of another asset, but to the emergence of thousands of new markets. forever The story of James Howells, an Englishman who lost a hard disk containing 8,000 Bitcoin (BTC), has now been turned into a game. Players are challenged to find the device amidst a pile of trash. Howells mined about 8,000 BTC in 2009, before accidentally throwing away the hard disk containing his wallet access while cleaning his house in 2013. The device was then taken to the Docksway landfill in Newport, Wales. For more than a decade, Howells has been trying to get permission to dig up the site. IU.S. stock brokers have also started selling perpetual contracts, and this signal is not simple
Robinhood announced yesterday: eligible U.S. users can now trade crypto perpetual contracts directly within their securities accounts.
- BTC, ETH: up to 10x leverage
- SOL, XRP, DOGE, ADA, LINK, HYPE: up to 3x
- Using Robinhood Derivatives + Bitstamp, no expiration date, 0.01% fee until the end of the year
The key is not the leverage, but the entry point. Previously, U.S. retail investors who wanted to trade perpetuals had to go offshore; now they can open orders directly in stock apps—crypto derivatives have officially "entered the mainstream."
But don’t be fooled by the word "broker": funding rates still apply, and forced liquidations still happen. With 10x leverage, a 10% adverse move wipes out your principal. The entry is smoother, but the risk remains unchanged.
Do you think more U.S. stock brokers will follow next?
$BTC$BTC Today's core market changes come from a significant decline in capital momentum, which is the fundamental reason why the recent market has struggled to break through:
1. Spot buying cools down: Data shows that explicit spot demand in the market has significantly decreased over the past 30 days, the pace of new long entries has slowed, retail investors at high levels and short-term funds are cautious, lacking incremental capital support for upward movement;
2. Derivatives momentum fades: Futures speculative positions have sharply reduced compared to earlier periods, leveraged funds have largely withdrawn, short-term speculative intensity has weakened, directly causing narrower market volatility and no continuous rises or falls;
3. Profit-taking pressure emerges: Current market position profits have reached a 21-month high, a large amount of low-position holdings are in profit, with profit-taking pressure above at any time, greatly limiting the space for a bullish rebound.
Short-term strong resistance (upper range)
$84,200—$84,500: Intraday strong resistance zone, also the position where multiple recent rallies have been pressured, combined with dense chip selling pressure; without sudden positive news intraday, it is almost impossible to break through effectively;
Ultimate resistance $85,000: Round number resistance plus previous high point pressure, sustained short-term pressure.
Short-term strong support (lower range)
$83,000: Intraday dividing line between strength and weakness; holding above this level maintains a bullish oscillation pattern;
$82,300—$82,500: Ultimate defensive support and recent long baseline; if effectively broken, it will trigger a phase of deep correction.ZEC plummets 12% in a single day: 15,000-coin whale dumps, and a relentless "meat grinder"
From September 29 to 30, ZEC plunged from a high of $1598 to a low of $1361, dropping over 12% in 24 hours. In the past 12 hours, ZEC liquidations reached $28.7393 million, ranking first across the entire network. During the same period, ETH liquidations were $15.58 million, BTC liquidations $15.07 million—ZEC's single-coin liquidation amount nearly equals the combined total of ETH and BTC.
ZEC didn’t fall following the market. It blew itself up.
The first truth: 25,001-coin whale sells, profiting $27 million
The most direct trigger for this crash is an on-chain record that cannot be ignored.
On September 29, whale address 0xf562 sold 25,001 ZEC, worth about $37.84 million. These tokens were bought two months ago at an average price of $425, yielding a profit of over $27 million.
Did you get that? Entered at $425 two months ago. Now selling at $1450–$1500. A 3.4x profit. $ZEC $BTC $ETH #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 I checked the public chains and several hot tokens; the market liquidity is ridiculously poor. Even placing a couple of large orders can create a noticeable dip.
Previously strong SUI and SOL are now also moving in narrow ranges. The entire altcoin sector shows no sign of substantial coordinated capital. I flipped through the screening pool upside down but couldn't find a single pattern meeting trading standards. Narratives without real volume and genuine capital pushing are just self-indulgence. Trying to force opportunities in the altcoin pile at times like this is purely paying tuition to the market. Better to hold onto cash honestly and keep a close eye on the major ecosystem leaders' movements.
$BTC $SOL $SUI $XAU
Will Trump's speech at 9:30 affect the monthly close?
Gold showed a relatively weak rebound correction yesterday, and there was no strong bullish force observed. The overall trend, although the rebound is not yet over, is still mainly bearish.
Looking at silver's movement as a reference, yesterday's rebound did not break the high point near 10 PM on the 28th, which was a false bullish signal. From this perspective, the rebound is weak and bears dominate!
On the news front, today we have ADP Nonfarm Payrolls, PCE data, and Trump will speak again at midnight. It looks quite eventful, but my consistent view is not to try to predict in advance how the news will impact the market. This is key—guessing ahead only brings more emotions and disrupts systematic trading. This is the most important advice!
For today's intraday operations, I personally will still focus on short positions. Even though the rebound is not confirmed to be over, on the short term, bears will definitely provide opportunities. Just patiently wait for small-scale signals to trade short-term or even ultra-short intraday moves, which is enough to profit. This is also consistent in terms of strategy, direction, position, and entry-level signals. It might even trigger a new large-scale downward move, but this is not a guess! Trading intraday around this idea during the day will not yield bad results! The market can go either way, no conclusion yet, so no strategy will be given today, just quality thinking!
Personal opinion, not investment advice!The calm before the storm perfectly describes the current market situation.
Looking at today's market, BTC, ETH, and SOL are all stagnant, with slight ups and downs, and trading volume has clearly shrunk. Both bulls and bears are watching from the sidelines, and no one dares to make the first move at this critical moment. Only OKB and SOL are a bit stronger, but that's just being the tallest among the short—nothing big is stirred up.
Why is it so quiet? Because the PCE data is coming out tonight. Looking at the macro data in the chart, expectations for a rate hike in October have been hammered down from a previous high to an even split. Federal Reserve officials themselves are at odds—Barr says inflation risks are still rising, while Williams says there's no rush to act after the September hike. Their conflicting statements have thrown market expectations into chaos.
But this extreme calm often means the major players are holding back a big move. The retreat in rate hike expectations seems to ease pressure on risk assets, but if tonight's PCE data remains stubborn and inflation doesn't come down, the dream of rate cuts will shatter instantly, long-term U.S. Treasury yields will push higher, and BTC and gold will continue to take hits. Conversely, if the data clearly cools down, the market could shoot up with a big bullish candle, wiping out all shorts.
This calm is the preheating before the meat grinder starts. Don't mistake calm for safety, and don't bet on the size of the data. Protect your principal and wait for the wind to come. $BTC $ETH $OKB #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 @OKX星球 It's not retail investors taking losses—someone just took profits of about $1.6 million on altcoin longs at Hyperliquid in one go.
According to Onchain Lens/TokenPost/Gate 9/30: an undisclosed address closed long positions on AAVE/ZEC/JUP/ENA, with a single trade profit totaling approximately $1.604 million (AAVE about $941,000 largest, ZEC about $400,000, JUP about $216,000, ENA about $47,000); this wallet has cumulatively realized about $12.65 million. Compared to yesterday's Boomer stop-loss flip to short, this is a different entity realizing profits and cashing out NEW.
Closed positions ≠ direction decided; monitored labels ≠ entity confirmed; cumulative PnL ≠ entire current cycle; single wallet ≠ main market driver. At time of writing, OKX AAVE about 160.1 / ZEC about 1412 / JUP about 0.330. Not investment advice.
$ZEC Bitcoin's current state is like the whole village's hope standing at the door, not letting anyone leave.
It dropped 3.7 points on the 7th, hanging at the 20th percentile of the 7-day range, with volume at 0.8 times the 7-day average. In plain language: low price, shrinking volume, falling quietly. It's just not giving you a satisfying drop.
Let me be clear, I don't catch these low-volume, quiet drops; you don't catch a flying knife like this. Most likely, it still needs to grind for a while, until no one talks about it anymore. When it really crashes hard and dumps with volume to create a pit, then I'll go in to pick it up.
Right now, light positions feel uncomfortable, heavy positions feel even worse. Bitcoin's behavior is telling you: don't rush, the ones rushing are the retail traders. I'm not in a hurry, I'll brew some tea and wait for the wind to come; if it doesn't, then forget it. $BTC $PONS made a T trade, didn't expect it to rise so sharply today. For now, the overall direction I still see as bearish, looking for an opportunity to add a position. The long-short ratio peaked at 2.3; when the market is too unanimous, you need to be cautious.
The market is clearly biased to the long side.
But there is a rule in trading:
When everyone is aligned in the same direction, the market often starts to test the holders.
Long-short ratio: retail investors are frenzied, whales hold heavy positions.
OKX retail long-short ratio is as high as 2.29, Binance retail is 1.33. Retail investors are desperately bottom-fishing.
Whale position long-short ratio is 2.3478; whales are also stubbornly holding long positions. The whole market is heavily loaded.
Fundamentals (a long-term looming sword, but also a trump card):
PONS is the leading Launchpad on Robinhood Chain, with 80% of fees used for buyback and burn (30% already burned), no unlocking pressure, and Uniswap Labs has invested.
Fundamentals are solid but highly dependent on on-chain Meme hype.
Strong resistance above $0.58-$0.60, and $0.50 is the critical survival line.
Although there is a short-term short squeeze rebound, 6 million U in funds left in 12 hours, so the rebound height is extremely limited.
$BTC $ETH #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 There is no new driving force in the capital side; SOON is currently following a clearing logic. Above the current price of 0.4256, a large number of short stop-loss and liquidation liquidity accumulate between 0.435 and 0.45. The moving average system shows a bullish divergence, the MACD golden cross is followed by continued expansion of the bars, and active buying volume continues to suppress selling. Under this structure, the price has the momentum to actively test the dense short position area. If it does not break the key pullback level, the trend is bullish.
I just parked the car at the alley where riders gather, while urging order updates and glancing at the market. I won’t try to guess the top at this position. A real breakthrough of 0.435 will trigger a short squeeze chain reaction, with a much higher probability of accelerating the market than a fake drop.
In terms of operation, entering long positions is possible if the pullback between 0.420 and 0.424 does not break. After a volume breakout above 0.434, add a light position once. Set the stop loss below 0.410. The first target is 0.443; after the liquidation range opens, look at 0.452 to 0.458. If a high-volume long upper shadow appears near 0.435 and then falls back to 0.428, reduce positions to lock in profits and do not hold the position.
$SOON
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件
@OKX星球 4R2vepDVY7Gdcm2VKuAy6EbBfWsYSEsDJou1QGKuMfnfWhich is more important, win rate or return rate?$BTC brothers, this drop in gold is not a crash; the root cause is the rise in real yields on U.S. Treasury bonds.
Last night oil prices plummeted, the market is betting on U.S.-Iran talks, and the October rate hike expectation dropped directly from 70% to 50%.
4120 is temporarily holding, a short-term rebound is coming, but to reverse the trend it must hold above 4320; if it can't, it will remain weak and volatile.
Focus on tonight's PCE and Friday's non-farm payrolls; these two data points are the main triggers for a market shift.
The 4120 to 3950 range has been consolidating for over 40 days; long-term longs can be gradually positioned.
Brothers, do you think the gold price will first drop to 3950 for a retest, or directly surge to 4320?
$XAUT $BZ Keep an eye on the market to avoid getting lost! Latest operation guide for BTC and ETH
$BTC closely watches the bearish divergence at the top, follow the trend when breaking through
Focus on volume for BTC tonight! The daily bearish divergence risk hasn't been cleared yet; the only way to resolve it is through a strong rally. Small moves will only increase risk. For going long, consider it only after holding above 84028, with targets between 85016 and 86096; if it can't break through, it's pointless. For shorting, watch 83567; if volume increases and it breaks below without recovering, directly chase the short on the right side, targeting 82648 or even 81384 below. Remember, 82801 is the short-term lifeline; if it really breaks, prepare to grind within the large box between 81368 and 75578. Don't blindly get carried away, set your stop loss!
$ETH 2702 is the critical line between life and death, do not act without volume
Ethereum is currently oscillating between 2743 and 2702, don't treat it as a one-sided market. 2702 is tonight's bottom line; if it holds on the pullback, just let it fluctuate; if it truly breaks, don't hold illusions, directly look at 2637. However, 2637 has been tested many times and the support is weak; unless it first breaks 2743 to make a new high, it will most likely break. In terms of operation, if volume surges and it holds above 2725, try going long on the right side, targeting 2743 and 2787; if volume surges and it breaks below 2699, then follow the short on the right side. The core is: if the volume isn't right, stop; don't get carried away with your position! $ZEC It looks like everyone has made money from this wave. Although BTC is just over $83K, the profit-taking positions can't sit still anymore.
According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode @glassnode, 74% of the supply is in profit, and the realized profit-loss ratio jumped from 0.8 to 1.43 in one week.
This means that the coins sold on-chain are far more from profit-taking exits than from stop-loss cuts.
In other words, during this recent surge, the old holders are taking the opportunity to exit.
Buying at the top at times like this means you're likely taking their coins, right? The previous 1650-1700 predicted phase high was very accurate, but this oscillation scenario cannot be directly and linearly replicated around the current 1390 level.
Right now, 1390 is only a short-term psychological support, not a strong structural support. The buying here is more about short-covering after an oversell, not large capital actively building positions. Even if 1390 holds, the rebound pushing into the 1480-1500 trapped selling zone will face heavy pressure. A large batch of chips bought at the bottom yesterday is stacked here, and it may not follow the expected "rally then fall back to test 1440 support" pattern. It could easily break through 1440 directly, turning the rebound into a one-day event, giving no chance for a second push to 1540.
Conversely, if 1390 is broken decisively and falls below the previous low at 1355, the market will trigger a chain liquidation of contracts, pushing directly down to 1300. This path is valid, but beware of a fake-out: a quick spike below 1355 triggers many short stop-losses, followed by a violent pullback designed to hunt leveraged short positions. The ZEC derivatives market is very deep, and such spikes are common.
Tomorrow is the monthly candle close. Monthly closes often have fake breakouts or fake breakdowns. The closing price and intraday price can be completely different, so don’t treat an intraday spike as a valid breakout. Betting on the outcome in the first week of October is fine in terms of timeframe, but there will be macro disturbances like Nonfarm Payrolls and PCE data in between. If the broader market moves sharply, ZEC will deviate from its own technical scenario and be dragged by BTC and ETH, invalidating all technical levels.
The biggest risk in this trade is not the price level but the time frame: holding for a week with intraday spikes back and forth may hit your stop-loss or psychological limit before the final result. Technical analysis is only a probability scenario; the market will not strictly follow a stepwise rebound or decline. Leave enough room for error.
$ZEC $BTC $ETH现在的关键不是 BTC 会不会跌，而是 83000附近这段高位震荡究竟想干什么。 BTC 最近反复在 82,500—85,000美元区域来回拉扯，反弹有、承接也有，但上方抛压依旧明显。更值得注意的是，近期资金与宏观环境并不算友好，BTC此前冲击87,000美元后快速回落，目前仍处于高位消化阶段。 真正需要防的，是一个“事件驱动”的加速行情： - 📌 PCE通胀数据 - 📌 周五美国非农就业 - 📌 美股突然出现明显回撤 - 📌 油价再次快速上涨 - 📌 美债收益率继续向上 这些因素任何一个出现超预期，都可能让 BTC 从震荡直接进入趋势行情。 目前美国30年期国债收益率一度升至 5.59%附近，10年期也在 5.25%左右徘徊，均处于多年高位。高油价叠加通胀压力，让市场重新讨论美联储进一步收紧政策的可能性。 不过需要注意一个变化：并不是市场已经确定10月必然加息。 美联储纽约联储主席威廉姆斯最新表示，下一次行动没有紧迫性，后续仍要看经济数据，因此目前更像是“数据决定利率路径”。 所以我现在对 BTC 的思路很简单： 日线高位先防回落，不追多。 如果 82,000附近守不住，下$ZEC is quite interesting today, fluctuating around 1400. The long-short ratio clearly shows a bearish advantage, but the price hasn't dropped much. Be cautious. I'm short and will take a quick profit and exit.
Waiting for the market to break through resistance with volume, or to pull back to support with reduced volume.
Strong resistance is at $1450-$1500 above, and short-term support is at $1350 below.
If it breaks down, look towards $1250-$1300.
Long-short ratio: retail investors are overwhelmingly bearish, while large holders are holding long against the trend (a battle of titans).
Binance retail long-short ratio is 0.6543, OKX retail long-short ratio is 0.77.
Overall turning bearish or cautious, sentiment is extremely pessimistic.
For large holders: the number ratio is 0.6532, but their position long-short ratio is as high as 1.3444.
If the price breaks below the large holders' stop-loss line, it will trigger a more severe "long liquidation".
However, historically: when shorts are overly concentrated, a price breakout upwards often leads to a rapid rebound.
$BTC $ETH #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 September 30, 2026 Crypto Market Daily and Trading Plan
Summary in one sentence: Prices slightly rebounded, spot trading and active buying remain weak; market confirmation requires waiting for economic data and spot buying signals.
Market Tone
Bitcoin slightly up, Ethereum moderately higher, active buying strength weakened, not yet confirmed by spot market.
• Spot Buying: Exchange premium turned negative, full trading day volume declined; stablecoin stock maintained weekly growth, ETF fund flow for the day cannot be verified yet.
• Leverage and Options Market: Open interest slightly declined, funding rate slightly positive; call option implied volatility higher, CME futures slightly at a premium to spot.
• Global Major Assets: The three major US stock indices closed slightly down, the fear index remained stable; semiconductor sector led gains, US Treasury yields and US dollar index maintained a relatively strong pattern.There have been too many similar sentences recently!
◆ U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Dropped to the lowest level since 1982!
◆ Consumer Confidence Index: Dropped to the lowest value since March 2014!
◆ 30-year U.S. Treasury yield: Rose to the highest level since 2002!
◆ 10-year U.S. Treasury yield: Rose to the highest level since 2007!
◆ U.S. Initial Jobless Claims: Reached the lowest value since 1969 for the week of September 19!
Rising oil prices, shrinking consumption, risk of U.S. Treasury collapse, long-term inflation expectations, companies reluctant to lay off employees.
Although, Brother Feng does not think this is a bear market; crypto liquidity and sentiment are relatively active.
But in this environment, can there be a bull market? Don't let ZEC's short-term repeated fluctuations trap your thinking. Bears are hoping for a direct drop to 1200, essentially waiting for the market to move in line with their positions, but the market logic is actually not like that.
ZEC previously rallied from 1080 to 1695, accumulating a large long base. This round of decline is just profit-taking, not a trend reversal. Yesterday's rally near the breakeven point was not simply short covering; it was the main funds absorbing chips at a low level. The low point at 1355 has already seen buying support, and the support is very strong. To drop straight to 1200 would require the overall market to cooperate with a large-scale panic sell-off. ZEC's own selling pressure alone is unlikely to achieve this. The current rebound is funds testing the selling pressure above, and it is easy for the market to form a structure of oscillating rise afterward, continuously wearing down the patience of low-level short sellers.
Looking at the broader market, BTC and ETH are currently consolidating sideways; funds have not exited but are waiting for the non-farm payrolls. The market has already priced in expectations for the non-farm data, so even when the data is released, it may not directly trigger a one-sided rally with BTC above 90000 or ETH above 3000. The most common scenario after data release is a spike to shake out positions, then a reversal.
Do not subjectively bet on a decline. ZEC, as a privacy coin, has very strong contract game dynamics. Once the bulls gain momentum, a rapid short-term surge can force high-leverage shorts into a series of stop losses, commonly known as a short squeeze. The market will not cater to holders' expectations; in the midst of fluctuations, two-way spikes can come at any time.
$ZEC $BTC $ETH$HYPE: Real Usage, Price Needs Confirmation
Hyperliquid is seeing real RWA activity, strong perp volume and fee-driven HYPE buybacks.
But price has already repriced hard.
Around $86, HYPE is well above its $3.81 ATL and its 2025 high near $58.60.
Watch, not a long.
$85 is the level that matters. $98 is the first sentiment test.
The market needs sustained volume, fee growth and buybacks—not more announcements.
#HyperliquidPayout #HYPEJapanFirstBuy
$HYPE $BTC Bitcoin: The volatility is not over yet. BTC has basically moved within the expected wide range in the past two days. Currently, the price has returned to around $83K, still fluctuating repeatedly within the $82K–$85K range in the short term. If your position is heavy, you might consider moderately reducing risk exposure near $83.2K–$83.8K. The biggest issue now is not an immediate crash, but that the market has not given a clear direction: - If it climbs back above $85K → there is a chance to retest $86.5K–$87.5K - If it breaks below $82K → it may continue to test $80.5K–$81.5K - If it can hold near $81K, I still tend to interpret the current movement as a consolidation after an uptrend, rather than a complete trend reversal The market is currently awaiting the US PCE inflation data. The market generally expects August PCE year-over-year to be about 3.7%, core PCE about 3.3%, still significantly above the Fed's 2% target. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury yield has risen to about 5.25%–5.30%, and the 30-year yield once broke above 5.6%. High yields remain a significant pressure source for risk assets. Therefore, the most important thing for BTC now is not chasing gains or panic selling, but observing whether $82K can hold and how the market prices interest rate expectations after the PCE release. --- $ETH Ethereum: After a quick surge and stop-out, it has returned to the consolidation zone. ETH briefly surged to around $2,740 last night, then pulled back.#财报观察员: Micron's earnings report is approaching, AI storage demand becomes the focus. Finally made it! ZEC took profit at 131%, and the $CL crude oil short held for a week miraculously broke even!🤡
Today's mood feels like being reborn.🌞
Last night I closed two big positions in one go, the pressure from watching the market all week was completely released at this moment!
——————
First, let's look at my proudest $ZEC short position (Figure 1):
Entered around an average price of 1662, took profit and closed near 1443 at 21:45 last night!
Realized gain +131.35%! (Earned 52.4U)
The reward for following the trend is really generous.
But what made me breathe a sigh of relief the most was the $CL crude oil short (Figure 2):
Average price 90.9, held stubbornly for a week, from a deep loss of over thirty points, endured until 20:53 last night, finally closed with a slight profit at 90.6! +1.32%, earned 0.38U!
Although it's just a few cents, not getting liquidated or forced to cut losses and walking away intact feels better than making a hundred U!😭
——————
💡 Emotional outburst on Wednesday (reflection):
This past week, every time I opened my eyes I was watching if crude oil would spike, and I was afraid of liquidation even when sleeping.
Now everything is closed, the account only has the XPL long base position left, debt-free and light!
ZEC proved the power of "following the trend," crude oil proved the cost of "holding stubbornly."
Although I was lucky this time to hold on until breaking even, I will definitely never blindly load up and stubbornly hold commodities again, it's too torturous! $BTC has been fluctuating near the 7-day moving average after dropping from the high of 87,000.
Tonight's PCE and ADP employment data could be the turning point for the next direction.
Market expectations: ADP employment at 70,000; PCE month-over-month at 0.3%.
If the PCE month-over-month is below the expected 0.3%, employment continues to grow but is below 70,000, this should be the most favorable scenario for the market.
US Treasury yields may decline, easing rate hike expectations, and BTC could break through the current range to reach 90,000.
If PCE exceeds expectations, US Treasury yields may continue to rise, rate hike expectations heat up, and BTC could drop to the 80,000 support level.
If both PCE and ADP employment just meet expectations, the market may continue to fluctuate.
Possibly fluctuating upward, although there is no good news, there is also no worse situation.
The market itself has a certain upward trend, but it has been suppressed recently by rising US Treasury yields and increasing rate hike expectations.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 BTC next 24 hours
- First resistance at 83,500–83,700.
- More critical strengthening zone is 83,880–84,000.
- Only after holding above 84,000 is there a chance to retest 84,560–84,600.
- First support at 82,850–83,000.
- If breaking below 82,850, watch previous lows at 82,500–82,600; if that fails, look at 81,700–82,000.
Assessment: Expected to fluctuate between 82,850–84,000. Only by holding above 84,000 will it turn bullish; breaking below 82,850 will restore a bearish structure.
ETH next 24 hours
- First resistance at 2,680–2,705, with moving averages and VWAP concentrated here.
- After breaking 2,705, next resistance is 2,720–2,750.
- Only by holding above 2,750 can a stronger rebound trend be confirmed.
- First support at 2,650–2,655.
- If broken, watch 2,635 and 2,600 in sequence.
Assessment: ETH is weaker than BTC, tending to fluctuate between 2,635–2,705 in the next 24 hours. Without holding above 2,705, the rebound is still a corrective move.SOL is currently fluctuating around $118, having dipped to $115.8 in the past 24 hours. Its 7-day performance is nearly flat, but it still maintains double-digit gains over the past 30 days. On the surface, SOL seems poised to continue downward, but what deserves more attention is that the entire risk asset market is under pressure. U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, with the 10-year yield approaching 5.3% again and the 30-year yield standing near **5.6%**. The high interest rate environment is compressing the market's willingness to allocate to high-risk assets. Meanwhile, recent inflows into crypto ETFs have noticeably slowed. Although SOL-related products still maintain net inflows, the strong buying momentum seen previously has clearly cooled down. However, SOL's fundamentals have not shown any obvious deterioration for now. 📌 Several catalysts worth watching: - Alpenglow upgrade testing is ongoing, aiming to significantly shorten network finality times; - The Solana ecosystem's stablecoin scale continues to expand, with on-chain liquidity remaining high; - The scale of RWA assets keeps growing, and institutional applications are still advancing; - SOL-related ETFs have maintained net inflows for a long time, indicating ongoing institutional interest; - Currently, it looks more like a retreat in leverage and risk appetite rather than a sudden fundamental downturn. 📊 Key price zones: Support: ➡️ Around $116 ➡️ $113–114 ➡️ If these are further broken, watch the $102–105 area Resistance: ➡️ $120 ➡️ $1 #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 Goldman Sachs judges core inflation controllable, actual rate hikes only 2 to 3 times
Rate hike expectations have been overpriced. The cumulative rate hikes priced in by the market for the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England far exceed Goldman Sachs' base forecast. Goldman Sachs believes core inflationary pressure is limited, and the actual number of rate hikes may be fewer than market expectations (2-3 times instead of 7-8 times), providing an opportunity for long-term rate hedging.
Rate hikes were implemented in September, but market pricing implies more rate hikes $BTC $MSTR According to SoSoValue data, during the week of September 21 to 25, the total net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $2.386 billion, marking the highest single-week inflow in 2026 and the strongest inflow in nearly a year. The cumulative ETF fund flow for the year turned positive, reversing a previous deficit of about $5.8 billion.
Bitcoin's price once surged to $87,270, hitting a multi-month high, then retreated to around $84,000 due to rising U.S. Treasury yields. A Bitwise survey of 15 large institutions showed that during Bitcoin's drop from $125,000 to $60,000, none of the respondents reduced their holdings; some even increased them. Participants included pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, with allocations ranging from 2% to 8%.
The sustainability of fund inflows will be a key variable for subsequent trends. $BTC #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 $UNI UNI 30-minute level (starting point 8.45, 9.29 10:30 low)
Summary in one sentence: Starting from the 8.45 low, currently in the first consolidation phase of the 30-minute uptrend, which is a continuation of the uptrend, building positions at the consolidation bottom.
Chan Theory Structure:
After bottoming at 8.45, the first 30-minute uptrend consolidation is formed.
Trend characterization:
Currently in the consolidation building phase of the 30-minute uptrend.
Bullish observation: On the minor level pullback, the low does not break the ZD; a minor level bullish divergence appears, forming a 30-minute third buy, the uptrend structure continues, aiming to challenge GG.
Risk observation: A pullback directly entering the consolidation range indicates consolidation expansion; if DD falls below the starting point 8.45, this 30-minute uptrend structure is directly broken, and the trend shifts to a larger-scale consolidation or a downward reversal.
Wyckoff volume-price matching observation:
Breaking upward from the consolidation requires volume demand confirmation; a new high with shrinking volume may lead to volume expansion stagnation, signaling distribution.
Pullback inside the consolidation: Shrinking volume pullback and exhaustion of selling pressure indicate effective ZD support; if the pullback is accompanied by volume increase downward, supply strength rises, increasing the probability of ZD support failure.
Key observation points:
The market is in a consolidation phase; do not chase highs. Wait for minor level pullback plus bullish divergence confirmation, and observe if the third buy can form.
Abandon bullish ideas once ZD is broken and a new low below 8.45 occurs.
⚠️Technical theory review only, does not constitute any investment advice. ETH Midday Core Logic · Many fake moves in the market, quick hands get hit easily, don't rush to get emotional. · Yesterday pretended to be strong first, touched 2701 but didn't hold, poked 2745 then fell back below 2701, closed high with an abnormal evening star, the pattern looks off. · Now whether to recognize the uptrend line: if yes, can go back to test 2701; if no, first look at 2639. If 2639 breaks again, 2566 is waiting below. · Long: volume break above 2679, right side long, pull back stop loss; pull back to 2633 to confirm support then add one long, stop loss if breaks 2584. · Short: volume break below 2668, right side short, set stop loss; short one at 2745, stop loss if breaks 2786. · Hourly hold above 2679, then look at 2701-2745; 4-hour break below 2667, look down to 2638-2611. · Left side: 2555 pin bar long, stop loss if breaks 2510. · Resistance: 2679 / 2701 / 2745 · Support: 2668 / 2633 / 2611 BTC Midday Core Logic · 84317 surged like it wanted to take off, but didn't, then pulled back to 82801. 82801 support is strong, hammered back and forth without breaking, hourly lows are still rising, no need to be pessimistic for now. · But if 84317 doesn't hold, it's still a rebound, not a reversal. 82801 is the bottom line, if broken first look at 81347, then 81674-80843. · Long: pull back to 82801 with a false break and recovery, or wait for a clear bottom signal then$BTC made a T move and continues to stay short. It has been hovering around 83,000. Contract trading volume is declining, and the long position ratio is relatively high. Patience is key at this time; be cautious with your position size.
Resistance: around 85,000 Support: around 82,000
Long-short ratio: large holders still hold long positions.
Binance retail long-short ratio is 1.381, OKX retail ratio is 1.41.
Large holder count long-short ratio is 1.4516, and their position long-short ratio is as high as 1.9335.
Large holders are still stubbornly holding long positions, with very heavy exposure.
If the price breaks below $82,000, it could easily trigger a "long liquidation" cascade.
Currently, the price is near $83,300, with strong resistance at $85,000 above and a critical support line at $82,000 below.
Although contract funds are pushing the price up in the short term, there is no support on the spot side.
As long as it cannot break through $84,500 with volume, it is very likely to retest $82,500 or even $81,500.
$ETH $SOL #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美债30年期收益率突破5.6%，创2002年来新高 Recently, BTC briefly retraced to around $83,300, significantly narrowing miners' profit margins. The market estimates the current comprehensive cost for miners to be approximately in the $84,000–$86,000 range, with some high-cost miners possibly forced to sell BTC to cover electricity and operational expenses. From the capital structure perspective, market leverage is continuously cooling down. The size of BTC open interest contracts has dropped about 18% from the August peak, with previous excessive leverage being somewhat cleared, which actually helps reduce the risk of short-term cascading liquidations. On-chain, the 7-day average net outflow of BTC from exchanges is about 15,000 coins per day, at a relatively high level over the past year. Some funds are transferring BTC to self-custody wallets during the price pullback, indicating that the spot side is not purely a panic-driven retreat. Additionally, recent personnel changes in U.S. regulatory agencies are worth noting. The number of commissioners at the SEC and CFTC has decreased, which may cause temporary impacts on certain crypto market regulations and market structure legislation processes. The short-term market may still be disturbed by policy expectations. 📌 Key short-term levels: - Support: $82,500–$83,000 - Strong support: $81,000 - First resistance: $85,500 - Upper target: $87,000–$88,500 My approach remains "support first, confirm before adding positions." If stabilization occurs near $82,500, rebound opportunities can be observed; if $81,000 is effectively broken, a reassessment is needed $GRASS is looking overheated after that strong run. What’s weird is how little the funding rate has changed. 🤔
Still stuck in $NMR, so I’m avoiding new trades. Got bored and took a quick $SOON short—small profit, quick exit. 😎
Another sleepless night… time to recharge and fight again tomorrow. 🌙📉
#OctoberRateHikeOdds
#MicronEarningsAhead
#US30YYieldBreaks5.6% $BTC may no longer have strong support at 83000 in this round!
After several probes, Bitcoin has held 83000, even with volume, it still held.
But I also noticed a problem: after repeatedly testing 83000, the strength of each rebound is weakening.
This means the support still exists, but only to defend the price, while the buying power has significantly decreased.
So I don't think another test of 83000 is a strong bottom-fishing signal; after all, things don't usually happen more than three times, and this has happened several times already, so this time it might not be that simple.
I think a better approach is to wait for a right-side signal, confirming that there is capital behind 83000 before considering whether to open a position.
Also, the daily-level bearish divergence risk still exists, and a deep pullback is quite likely.
Until the structure is repaired, going long requires caution; it's best to wait and see.
The weekly-level support is around 82000, which might be the bears' target these days.
If it breaks below 82000 and cannot quickly rebound and recover above it, I think shorting is possible.
The target would be 78000.
However, if 83000 holds and there is a strong breakout above 84500, I think we could see 87000.
The above is just my personal opinion for reference only!It's not because there is no opportunity, but because volatility easily creates an illusion: making money seems very simple. Getting the timing right once makes you feel like you've mastered the pattern; two consecutive profits lead to increasing positions, leveraging, and even gradually ignoring risks. The real danger is often not a single loss, but after a streak of "luck," exhausting discipline, mindset, and principal altogether. So my trading scope is very simple: only trade BTC and ETH contracts; if trading traditional markets, I focus on US stocks. I pay more attention to assets with liquidity, market depth, and relatively mature trading rules, rather than chasing suddenly hyped narratives. Recently, BTC has been fluctuating around $83K, with a cumulative quarterly increase of over 40% in September, but high-level pullbacks and rising US Treasury yields have also significantly increased short-term volatility. Meanwhile, from September 21 to 25, the US spot BTC ETF saw a cumulative net inflow of about $2.4 billion, with institutional funds still being an important market variable. This further illustrates one principle: having capital inflow does not mean blindly chasing the rise; having a market trend does not mean you must participate every time. Don't gamble on emotions, don't chase hot topics, and don't mistake a single profit for your ability. What truly matters in trading is never winning every trade, but controlling risk and avoiding a loss large enough to make recovery impossible. Stay away from temptation, guard your boundaries. Let yourself survive long enough in the market before you have the right to talk about compounding. $BTC $ETH$SNDK: Long Position
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to pull back to the 1710-1720 range (Bollinger lower band and previous support zone) and stabilize before entering long.
· Targets are first 1735 (resistance) and 1740 (Bollinger upper band); if broken effectively, hold until 1751 (24-hour high). Set stop loss below 1687.
Core Basis:
1. Strong bottom support: After a sharp drop from 1787.5 to 1661, a quick wick formed, creating a deep V reversal. Currently, there is dual support at 1722 (chart support) and 1711.9 (Bollinger lower band), indicating a clear exhaustion of bearish momentum.
2. Indicator convergence signaling reversal: Bollinger Bands are tightly squeezed, with price oscillating narrowly between 1720-1740. Volume significantly shrinks during the pullback phase, indicating selling pressure exhaustion and a healthy consolidation before reversal.
3. Resistance and risk-reward ratio: There is obvious resistance at 1735 and 1740, with a low probability of direct breakout, requiring a pullback to repair indicators. Clear support below allows for a defined defense level when buying on dips, offering a favorable risk-reward ratio.
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Brothers, why do I think ZEC will drop?
Because I believe this wave of $ZEC's movement has reached its peak.
It needs to hit a historic low to favor the next rise and the next breakthrough to a new high.
Why do I say this? Looking back at history, ETH broke through 4000 points four times in a row, but after each breakthrough, it fell back down.
The drop was basically more than 100%, stabilizing only after falling to just over 1000, then making the next push to a new high.
Look at ZEC's daily chart now, from 451 all the way up to 1697, nearly quadrupling, and now dropping to 1417.
It did rise crazily before, but it was always a crazy rise without a decent crash, which itself is not a healthy trend.
A truly healthy rise should have ups and downs, not a one-sided crazy surge.
Now it has finally started to pull back, and this position is very likely just the beginning of the correction.
Because the macro environment does not support it continuing to rise.
The October rate hike meeting is approaching, non-farm payroll and PCE data are about to be released, and liquidity is tightening.
Retail investors may still be fantasizing that ZEC will break through 2000.
But from historical trends, this is completely impossible this time.
The best and healthiest trend is for it to fall now and form a phased bottom during this negative news, consolidating the bottom, which is the biggest positive.
$BTC $ETH #10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键 I thought the $BTC market was about to take off, so I decisively went long on $NEAR, but ended up getting trapped in a bull trap.
Watching the chart briefly spike up, then slowly grind down, this kind of fake rally really tests your patience.
The market is like this: it lures you in when it’s rising, and once you add to your position, it reverses immediately.
There are so many bull trap tactics in the futures market; being a little greedy easily leads to pitfalls.
You still can’t let short-term impulse moves dictate your emotions when placing orders; patience is more important than anything.
$ETH
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美债收益率创2007年来新高，黄金跌超3% $BTC is fluctuating between $83,000 and $84,800. Current price is $83,400, with short-term support at $83,000 and strong support at $80,800; first resistance at $84,800, strong resistance at $85,500. Only by holding above $84,800 can it aim to break $85,500; if it falls below $83,000, then look toward $80,800. The whole day is likely to see range-bound oscillation.
Short is the right call, target seen at $80,000 #US-Iran negotiations restart, with limited room for concessions on both sides Albert's path to recovery September 30th Currently still short 175,000
Yesterday I still wasn't firm enough, just a bit too scared to short ETH cleanly above 2700 because it wouldn't stop. Once it hit 2700, I shorted, but I was always uneasy, yet I still entered the short and took two short trades losing over 200 dollars.
Then what I did more decisively was going long on gold and shorting oil, which definitely was the right call. Gold is about to break even soon, and oil is currently in a floating profit state with a target of 83. I started shorting oil from 97; Trump won't let oil prices stay above 90 for too long. When oil prices fall, gold will definitely rise.
Currently, I haven't fully capitalized on this ZEC drop, and I won't be greedy to short or long this volatile coin anymore. Right now, I only have a short position on ETH at 2730. The expectation of an interest rate hike in October has decreased, which is somewhat positive, so the market will have some rebound. At present, I don't have a specific direction; everyone, please give me some advice. My principal is almost 30,000 now, hoping for no drawdown in October, with a target of 10,000 dollars. Let's go!$ETH daily chart has entered a high-level consolidation zone. After a surge, bullish momentum has clearly slowed down, with the price repeatedly pressured near the upper Bollinger Band. Multiple attempts to test the upper highs have failed to form an effective breakout. The market shows intensified battle between bulls and bears, and signals of weakening upward strength are gradually emerging.
High-level consolidation often signals an impending trend change. After continuous surges, capital support weakens, and there is heavy resistance near 2800 above. Currently, the price has fallen back to around 2670, oscillating within the range. Bulls lack strength to push higher, while bears are gradually accumulating power. The consolidation pattern is highly likely to choose a downward direction.
Shorting at this position offers better risk-reward. The key resistance above is at 2720; as long as rebounds fail to hold above this level, the downward consolidation structure will continue. The first support below is at 2580; once broken, the consolidation range will open, and bearish space will further expand. $ETH
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Account Position Divergence Radar
$NMR: The number of top accounts is biased towards long positions, but the position distribution is biased towards short positions: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.525, top positions long-short ratio is 0.833; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 3.629; price increased by 0.14%, position value changed by -2.46%.
$DOGE: The number of top accounts is biased towards long positions, but the position distribution is biased towards short positions: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.683, top positions long-short ratio is 0.767; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 3.233; price decreased by 0.04%, position value changed by -0.25%.
$PEPE: The number of top accounts is biased towards long positions, but the position distribution is biased towards short positions: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.082, top positions long-short ratio is 0.769; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 2.686; price decreased by 0.19%, position value changed by -0.66%.
NMR, DOGE, PEPE: The side with the majority of accounts is opposite to the side with the majority of positions, indicating a divergence between account structure and position distribution; the overall market account structure is biased towards long positions, which also differs from the bias in top positions.