Orbit Post Sitemap
Valuing crypto assets without cash flow is indeed a brain teaser; the traditional DCF model is outright useless.
Switching perspectives, treat them as digital gold or rare collectibles, pricing based on scarcity, network effects, and storage costs.
The valuation logic of $BTC resembles hard assets the most—look at its hash rate (computing power security) and number of holding addresses, which is equivalent to miners anchoring value behind the scenes.
For public chain tokens, consider their ecosystem transaction volume, total value locked (TVL), and developer activity; these metrics indirectly reflect "use value."
Also, Metcalfe's Law applies: the more network nodes, the value grows quadratically. On-chain active addresses and transaction counts are key.
Market consensus is also crucial, such as brand recognition, community size, and celebrity endorsements. Though subjective, they support premium pricing.
Another approach is the replacement cost method: the electricity cost plus equipment depreciation to mine one $BTC sets the baseline support.
The most pragmatic method is to grade assets: those with ecosystem income are estimated by PE ratio; pure Meme coins shouldn’t be valued, just traded based on market sentiment.
Remember, for things without cash flow, don’t use P/E ratio to frame them; tell the story with market share and growth rate, but keep in mind—they are always risk assets.Banks are starting to take stablecoins seriously.
Recently, 21 financial institutions were reported to be planning to establish companies to launch US dollar stablecoins. This signal is actually more worth paying attention to than a certain coin suddenly rising 50%.
In the past, people used stablecoins mostly for trading, DeFi, and cross-border transfers.
But now the logic is changing: stablecoins may gradually shift from being the "dollar within Crypto" to becoming a true on-chain payment and settlement infrastructure.
If banks and enterprises start using stablecoins for settlement in the future, the way users manage assets will also change.
Before, we opened bank apps to manage US dollars.
In the future, we might directly open wallets to manage US dollar stablecoins, RWA, crypto assets, and even have AI Agents help you complete payments.
So the future competition among wallets might no longer be about "how many chains they support."
What really matters is whether it can understand your intentions and help you judge assets, chains, fees, and risks.
Banks entering stablecoins does not necessarily mean Web3 is being replaced by traditional finance.
On the contrary, it might mean:
Traditional finance is moving more and more assets onto the blockchain.
And wallets could very well be the first point of contact for ordinary users with these assets.$MU
$MU closed at $956.08, up 2.43%, with a trading volume of about 21.44 million shares. The stock price still has room to rise compared to the 52-week high of $1255, but it has already increased several times from the 52-week low.
Storage stocks are currently trading based on AI servers' demand for high-bandwidth memory and data storage. Improved demand will simultaneously drive up shipments and product prices, so profit elasticity is usually greater than that of ordinary chip companies.
The issue lies here: if the storage industry expands production too quickly, supply may push prices down again. I will continue to monitor storage prices, inventory, and capital expenditures. If conflicts begin to appear among these three, it is necessary to be cautious about the peak of the market outlook.Elon Musk's silence is precisely DOGE's best coming-of-age ceremony.
The past 50% Twitter pump essentially outsourced DOGE's pricing power to one person's emotions. When the "Elon Pump" is no longer the main driver in 2026, it may seem like a loss of momentum—the narrative engine has gone silent—but in reality, it's weaning: an asset only truly has its own valuation logic when it no longer depends on a single voice.
The transformation is already happening. The focus of $DOGE discussions is shifting from "what Elon Musk said today" to quantifiable fundamentals like on-chain activity, payment scenario adoption, and merchant acceptance. The community structure is also changing: short-term traders chasing Twitter screenshots are gradually exiting, while long-term holders focused on development and application building form the core base. The source of volatility is dispersing from a single celebrity effect to the natural formation of market consensus—this pricing method is closer to that of a mature asset than any pump call.
How much "Elon Musk premium" remains is not important; what matters is that it is being replaced by "network value." The former is borrowed leverage, the latter is grown muscle. The weaning period inevitably involves pain, but every asset must go through this step to mature: from being defined by a single phrase to defining itself.
The loss of momentum is temporary; growth is structural. DOGE is completing the critical leap from a "Musk concept stock" to an independent asset, and the biggest positive is precisely that the 50% pump no longer happens. FOMC Last Set of Data Before Friday's Nonfarm
The current market differences among BTC, ETH, and SOL fundamentally boil down to a battle between capital structure and narrative fulfillment.
$BTC BTC is supported by ETF institutional funds, with its monetary attributes dominating. On the macro level, close attention is paid to the real yield of U.S. Treasuries; during periods of rising#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #SaudiCrude9YearLow The Korea Electric Power Corporation recently proposed a rather outrageous but very realistic plan:
To have Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix prepay their electricity bills for the next 5 years, totaling 25 trillion Korean won.
Samsung would prepay 20 trillion, SK Hynix 5 trillion, which converts to about 18 billion USD. Korea Electric Power plans to use this money to expand the power grid needed for the semiconductor industry cluster.
What’s truly worth paying attention to here isn’t that "Korea Electric Power is short on money."
It’s that after AI and semiconductor capacity expansion, electricity has started to become an unavoidable bottleneck in the industry chain.
Previously, when people talked about AI, they focused on GPUs, HBM, and servers.
Now with chip manufacturers frantically expanding production and AI data centers continuously increasing, the most fundamental question behind it all has become:
With so many chips, what exactly will supply the power?
Samsung and SK Hynix are currently earning a lot, so naturally, they have the ability to pay this money upfront.
But from another perspective, this also reveals a reality:
The real competition in AI at the end of the day might not just be about chips and computing power.
Who can provide enough electricity and a stable power grid is the one qualified to continue expanding production.
So don’t just focus on those AI assets that have already skyrocketed.
When money starts flowing to the deeper layers of the industry chain, where will the real opportunities hide?
$SKHYNIX $SAMSUNG #AVGODipsSNOWPops Broadcom beat Q3 revenue and earnings estimates, AI chip revenue reached $16.7B—and the shares still fell more than 6% after hours before recovering part of the drop 😅
The reason seems familiar: expectations moved faster than the actual results. Slightly softer Q4 guidance mattered more than another strong quarter.
Snowflake had the opposite reaction. Q2 product revenue grew 37%, the company reached 9,100 customers and raised its full-year outlook. Shares jumped more than 21% ❄️
What caught my attention is how AI demand is spreading across the stack. Dell sees stronger server demand, Broadcom is benefiting from chips and networking, while Snowflake is capturing growth in the data layer.
The demand story looks real, but the market is becoming much more selective about execution.
It’s no longer enough to say “AI growth.” Companies now have to show where that growth appears—and how quickly it reaches guidance.Funds are starting to shift seats, why is gold moving first?
Gold has surged back above $4400 in the past two days, but don’t just focus on the nearly 10-ton daily increase in gold ETFs.
This looks more like funds are relocating.
Recently, US Treasury yields have fallen, the dollar is loosening, plus the ADP employment data was weak, and the nonfarm payroll report is coming up on Friday, causing rate cut expectations to swing again.#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #SaudiCrude9YearLow Bitcoin firmly defends 77,000, but the real thunder is after September
Don't be fooled by today's red-green fluctuations, $BTC is stuck at 77,000 and not moving, the real script that decides the direction is not today at all.
Looking at the market this morning, BTC is hovering around $77,400, up 0.48% in 24 hours, with volume shrinking by 13%.
From the August low of 60,000 all the way up to 81,000, now falling back to 77,000, is this called "unable to fall" or "unable to rise"? I personally lean towards the former, after all, a lot of macro issues have yet to materialize.
September 4th Nonfarm Payrolls, 11th CPI, 15th FOMC triple hit, especially the rate decision on the 15th-16th, the market now bets the probability of a rate hike is 53%, which was unthinkable half a year ago.
Even more cunning is the Treasury raising long-term bond repurchases from 2 billion to 4 billion, forcibly lifting BTC from 60,000 to 80,000.
77,000 is a temporary safe harbor; after Nonfarm and CPI come out, it will either break 81,000 with a bullish candle or fall back to 70,000 to find support. Don't max out your position, wait for the mid-September showdown. $BTC Warsh's "hawk" — 35% to 60%, overnight
On August 28, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole. I stayed up late to watch the whole thing — then couldn't sleep.
He abandoned forward guidance, saying inflation is still too high. Just with these few words, the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 35% to 60%. Bitcoin had just broken through 81,000 the day before, but after the speech, it sharply reversed and dropped to 76,000 at one point. My long position was stopped out at 78,000, and watching the price keep falling made my hands tremble.
Before this guy spoke, the market was still hoping for "easing." After he finished, everything changed. What's even scarier is that he announced abandoning forward guidance — the market can no longer glean clues from the Fed's wording. For an asset like Bitcoin, which is highly sensitive to liquidity, this means future volatility will be more frequent and unpredictable.
Looking back now, that crash was actually a good thing — it made me realize a fact: in front of Warsh's Fed, any "crypto bullish news" has to take a back seat. Macro is the boss. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Good afternoon, just finished some work and sat down to take a look at the market. BTC is fluctuating between 77,400 and 77,700, currently around $77,420, down slightly by 0.33% in 24 hours. It has dropped about 2.14% over the past week. An interesting signal has emerged on the macro front. The US August ADP employment data (the "small non-farm payrolls") released last night showed an increase of only 38,000 jobs, far below the market expectation of 48,000, marking the smallest gain since January this year. The cooling of the job market is clear. But oil prices are still causing trouble. The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, with Brent crude oil holding near $95. High oil prices combined with weakening employment have the market in a dilemma—the probability of a rate hike hasn't decreased much, and concerns about "stagflation" are starting to arise. The probability of a Fed rate hike in September remains above 60%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield stays above 4.7%. On the ETF side, September started off poorly. On September 1, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $236 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone withdrawing $201 million. After an inflow of $3.5 billion in August, the first day of September saw a reversal, which indeed affects market sentiment. Looking at the market structure, BTC has been sideways between 76,200 and 77,900 for almost a week. Bitfinex's calculated true market mean (TMM) is about $76,350—the price is still above the mean, so not weak. But there is obvious selling pressure between 78,000 and 79,000; several attempts to break through have failed. Analysts are focusing on the key support around 75,800; if it breaks below, it could potentiallyX US creators can now receive instant payments starting today.
The real change isn't the speed.
Revenue sharing is moving from Stripe to X Money. The old Revenue Sharing will stop on September 7. Starting September 8, existing members must reapply for Original Content Rewards.
Simply put: the platform begins to control distribution, review, and payment accounts simultaneously.
The money you earn truly lives inside X for the first time.
Do you think this is loosening restrictions for creators, or locking them into the wallet?Privacy coin $ZEC never really took off; the optional privacy mode dooms anonymous sets to never grow big. Those who truly need strong privacy have long gone to Monero, and ordinary people are unwilling to pay extra costs and deal with hassles for privacy. The result is that it is neither mainstream nor pure enough.
Regulations keep cracking down every day, and exchanges always target privacy coins first whenever there's any stir. Many places in Europe and Asia are unfriendly to it. Liquidity is getting worse, and the cost of entry and exit is getting higher.
Stop rising, you don't really want to push it above 1000, do you?😭
#ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元
$ZEC Prolonged high interest rates mean tough times may still lie ahead for the crypto market
Global government bond yields have collectively surged, with the US, Germany, Japan, and the UK all hitting new highs for the year. Experts judge this as a sustained medium- to long-term trend lasting several years. This news is not a good sign for the crypto market.
Cryptocurrencies are essentially high-risk, zero-yield assets. In a high interest rate environment, capital has better options—why endure BTC's 20% daily volatility when you can earn a risk-free 5.5% yield on US Treasuries just by holding? Naturally, funds flow from high-risk assets to safe assets.
More immediate pressure comes from liquidity. High interest rates mean less money circulating in the market and more expensive leverage costs. Previously, low-cost capital flooded into the crypto market, pushing prices up. Now that funds are flowing back into bonds, where will incremental capital for crypto come from?
This also explains why BTC has been stuck oscillating between 77,000 and 79,000 recently, unable to break upward. It's not that there are no positives, but the broader environment is uncooperative. Under tightening macro liquidity, any positive news struggles to translate into sustained rallies.
Of course, high interest rates are not forever. This is a "sustained medium- to long-term trend"—not something that will end in a few months.
Against this backdrop, the crypto market will most likely continue to consolidate and bottom out with frequent short-term pulses but few trend-driven moves. Managing position sizes and lowering expectations are more important than anything else.
$BTC $ETH #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $BTC #21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币
Latest Updates
Strategy, Strive, and BitMine simultaneously resumed large-scale accumulation, collectively spending over $700 million to buy BTC; meanwhile, ETF funds are showing a rapid two-way switching trend, with large inflows and significant outflows alternating, intensifying the battle between bulls and bears.
Bull-Bear Divergence
The bulls believe that publicly listed companies using real money to buy in is a strong signal of a continuing bull market, and every pullback is a good opportunity to position; the bears warn that most of these companies buy coins by financing through stock issuance rather than using their own cash flow, so if their stock prices come under pressure, the accumulation could stop at any time.
Logic Breakdown
Corporate treasury accumulation does consume circulating market chips in the short term, providing support to the market. However, this type of buying is not continuous and highly depends on the US stock financing environment, so it can only be considered a mid-term catalyst, not a guarantee of a one-sided rise. The overall market trend is ultimately still dominated by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
Personal Judgment (Personal opinion only, not investment advice)
Institutional accumulation is a positive factor, but it is unwise to trade blindly based on this signal alone. I tend to believe the bull market is slowly returning, but position management is still necessary to avoid chasing highs. #FOMC Last Set of Data Before Friday's Nonfarm
The current market differences among BTC, ETH, and SOL fundamentally boil down to a battle between capital structure and narrative fulfillment.
$BTC BTC is supported by ETF institutional funds, with its monetary attributes dominating. On the macro level, close attention is paid to the real yield of U.S. Treasuries; during periods of rising #LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #SaudiCrude9YearLow Funds are starting to shift seats, why is gold moving first? Gold has surged back above $4400 in the past two days, but don’t just focus on the nearly 10-ton daily increase in gold ETFs. This looks more like funds are relocating. Recently, US Treasury yields have fallen, the dollar is loosening, plus the ADP employment data was weak, and the nonfarm payroll report is coming up on Friday, causing rate cut expectations to swing again. The "nonfarm" data itself has made investors more cautious abouCore foundational prerequisites (data anchoring + historical patterns) 1. Yesterday's ADP small nonfarm data: actual increase of 38,000, below the market expectation of 48,000, data fell short of expectations, clearly signaling a cooling in U.S. private employment and a weakening labor market. 2. Correlation pattern between large and small nonfarm data: long-term data shows a high correlation between ADP and nonfarm trends, but monthly values often diverge (due to differences in statistical samples and industry weightings). Based on historical statistics: when ADP weakens, the probability of nonfarm weakening simultaneously is about 60%; the probability of nonfarm strengthening against the trend and significantly exceeding expectations is about 25%; the probability of data falling within the expected range and overall neutral fluctuation is about 15%. 3. Market consensus expectation for tonight's nonfarm: an increase of 55,000 jobs, this figure is the core dividing line for bulls and bears in this market battle. 4. Core trading logic: nonfarm data directly affects the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations, which in turn drives fluctuations in the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, ultimately transmitting to the BTC market, making it the core driving factor for tonight's market. Trading scenarios (probability + macro logic + BTC market scripts + trade risk control) Scenario 1: Nonfarm increase < 55,000 (employment continues to weaken) | estimated probability 60% (main probability) Macro core logic: both large and small nonfarm trends weaken in resonance, confirming a continued cooling of the U.S. employment market, the market will reprice expectations for the Fed to cut rates earlier and increase the magnitude of cuts, driving the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields down, benefiting risk assets. Complete BTC market script: 1. At the moment data lands: short-term funds instinctively go long #Corporate Treasury Collective Restart of Buying, BTC Institutional Buying Surge Again
Latest Data
Strategy, Strive, and BitMine simultaneously resumed large-scale accumulation, spending over $700 million in total to buy BTC; ETF funds rapidly switch directions, sometimes large inflows, sometimes significant outflows, with intense long-short battles.
Market Consensus
Bulls believe that listed companies putting real money into the market is a strong signal that the bull market continues, and that pullbacks are opportunities to position; bears remind that most companies rely on issuing stock to finance coin purchases rather than using their own cash, so if stock prices come under pressure, subsequent accumulation could stop abruptly.
Underlying Logic Analysis
Corporate treasury accumulation will temporarily reduce circulating market supply, providing support to the market. However, this type of buying is not unlimited and highly depends on the US stock financing environment. It acts as a medium-term catalyst but cannot be directly regarded as a guarantee for a one-sided rise. The market will still be influenced by Federal Reserve policies.
Personal Viewpoint (Personally inclined to believe the bull market is gradually returning, this is only a personal opinion and not investment advice)
Institutional accumulation is a positive factor, but do not rely solely on this signal for trading; position management is still necessary, and avoid chasing highs. UNI｜Intraday Breakthrough at $6 Level: The Data Is Real, But the Price Is Not Cheap What Really Happened: After UNI closed at $5.66 on 9/1 with a +10.7% gain, it once touched $6.01–6.38 intraday on 9/2 (multi-source range, an 8-month high). Markets.com reported a close at $5.99 (+14.6%), CMC AI reported $5.85 (+9.75%), with 7-day gains ranging from +29.8% to +38.7% (differences due to sources). Futures open interest rose to $566 million (a high since November 2025), with about $3 million in shor🪫Bitcoin is facing a different kind of test today.
BTC slipped below $77K as renewed US-Iran tensions pushed oil higher and triggered another risk-off move across global markets.
And crypto is feeling it.
$ETH, $SOL and $XRP are under heavier pressure, showing that traders are quickly reducing exposure to higher-risk assets.
The important part is not simply that Bitcoin fell.
It is what is happening around it.
Higher oil prices can increase inflation pressure. Higher inflation expBesent's Double-Edged Sword: Between Easing and Forced Rate Hikes, Institutions Quietly Bottom-Fish
At the G20 Finance Ministers' meeting, Besent acted on two fronts: on one hand, pressuring Japan to raise rates in September, with overnight index swaps showing a 97% probability; on the other, announcing an expansion of long-term bond repos to try to lower credit costs. Easing with the left hand, tightening with the right—policy directions contradict each other.
But easing faces triple resistance: the 10-year US Treasury yield broke above 4.75%, hitting a 19-month high; at Jackson Hole, Wash clearly signaled hawkishness; oil prices rebounded to $92; and a peak in long-term bond supply is approaching. Credit loosening will only worsen inflation, forcing a prolonged high-rate cycle. Japan's rate hike will trigger carry trade unwinding, causing a sharp drop in global liquidity, with risk assets hit first.
Yet institutions are increasing positions against the trend. Strategy ended its wait-and-see stance, buying 4,603 BTC at an average price of $80,318, bringing total holdings to 845,000 BTC; BitMine has increased ETH holdings for 65 consecutive weeks, totaling 5.9 million ETH, with staked annualized yields of $335 million covering interest. They are betting on the long-term collapse of fiat credit; the 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has reached a historic high of 0.82.
Strategically, there is no short-term macro solution; opportunities come after panic. With the rate hike landing on September 18, if BTC dips below 75,000, phased entry is possible. But institutions' average cost is about 75,000 with cash flow as a backstop—your bullets are limited, so don't treat strategic allocation as a reason to go all-in.
$BTC $ETH $XAU
#贝森特拟放宽银行信贷，高利率压力待解 $ETH Last night, the non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, boosting risk assets. ETH once surged to 2419, then retreated after approaching the 2420 resistance level, indicating obvious selling pressure in that area.
Currently, the market is still mainly consolidating with a 4-hour chart forming a converging triangle, with volatility continuing to narrow.#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #SaudiCrude9YearLow Middle East conflict fully spills over! Iranian missiles directly strike US military base in Kuwait, a new global market storm has begun
This time, the Middle East situation is no longer limited to localized skirmishes; the war has officially spread outward comprehensively.
Breaking news: Iran directly deployed ballistic missiles and drone swarms to precisely strike the US military base in Kuwait.
Kuwait's air defense system was fully activated for interception, with thick smoke rising on site and multiple facilities catching fire.
The market must understand a harsh reality:
The US-Iran conflict has completely stepped out of Iranian territory and the Strait of Hormuz.
The entire Gulf region and surrounding US military bases are now within the range of actual combat strikes. The situation has escalated from "localized confrontation" to full-scale geopolitical competition.
1. Why is this attack more deadly than any before?
Previously, the market held onto hope:
The conflict was just minor skirmishes, would not escalate, would not affect energy, and would not disrupt global supply.
But this round is completely different:
Iran has proactively expanded its strike radius, directly attacking US assets inside a third country.
This means:
✅ The battlefield is no longer limited
✅ The level of confrontation has escalated again
✅ The retaliation chain is infinitely extended
✅ All energy facilities, ports, and shipping in the Gulf are now on the risk list
What the market fears most now is not this wave of attacks already launched,
but the subsequent chain reaction and spread.
Once the war touches oil production areas, storage and transportation facilities, or maritime routes—
crude oil risk premiums will instantly surge, and oil prices will violently rebound.
2. Complete macro transmission chain: When oil prices rise, all global assets come under pressure
Many people don’t understand geopolitical markets; I’ll explain the underlying logic:
Middle East escalation → crude oil surge → inflation expectations rebound → rate cut expectations further delayed → US Treasury yields stuck high → high Beta assets collectively pressured
This is the hardest macro theme right now.
The stronger crude oil is:
• The less the Federal Reserve dares to ease
• The longer high interest rates persist
• The harder it is for tech and crypto markets to sustain a rebound
In other words:
As long as the Middle East fire doesn’t extinguish, the crypto space and high-volatility assets will struggle to mount a real rally.
The current weak market, repeated spikes, and feeble rebounds are not technical issues but macro suppression.
3. The most straightforward impact on the crypto market
1. Risk appetite contracts across the board
Geopolitical uncertainty maxes out, capital actively seeks safety, and high-volatility assets are the first to be drained.
2. All rebounds are defined as corrections, not reversals
All gains are oversold bounces, making it difficult to form trend rallies.
3. Volatility, shakeouts, spikes, and two-way squeezes become the norm
Black swans can drop anytime; news dominates over technicals.
4. Bulls must be extremely cautious, and bears should avoid heavy positions
The situation can trigger short-term risk-off rallies anytime; this is a typical chaotic market, unsuitable for heavy speculative bets.
4. The most critical trading truth now
Markets always obey the bigger trend.
Technicals can recover, indicators can diverge, supports can hold,
but macro risks and geopolitical black swans do not follow any technical rules.
The biggest risk in the market now is not a drop,
but the continuous amplification of uncertainty.
All traders remember this:
Geopolitical spread continues, easing expectations won’t come, and a major bull market won’t arrive.
In the short term, only trade small rhythms and planned swings,
Don’t reduce leverage or go fully to cash to bet on direction; that is the best risk control.
Conclusion
The fire in the Middle East has truly spread across the entire Gulf.
This is not a short-term hotspot but the start of a new round of global macro repricing.
Oil prices, inflation, interest rates, and risk assets all need to be repriced.
Patience, light positions, and respect for the market
are the only ways to survive going forward. Thị trường tài chính vừa chứng kiến một sự đối lập khá thú vị. Một bên là $AVGO, doanh nghiệp nằm ở trung tâm của câu chuyện chip và hạ tầng AI, công bố kết quả quý III vượt kỳ vọng nhưng lại chịu áp lực sau khi đưa ra dự báo doanh thu quý IV thấp hơn một chút so với dự báo thị trường. Ở phía bên kia, $SNOW lại tăng mạnh sau báo cáo kinh doanh tích cực, với doanh thu quý II đạt khoảng $1,55 tỷ, tăng 35% so với cùng kỳ; doanh thu sản phẩm tăng 37% và triển vọng cả năm được nâng lên. Hai phản ứng XRP has been heavily criticized these past two days.
It has dropped all the way down from previous highs and is now hovering around $1.34, down nearly 8% over the past week.
But my view today might be different from many others:
At this level, I’m actually starting to get interested in XRP.
Not because I think it will definitely rise today.
But because there is a clear contradiction in the market right now—
The price is taking a hit, but the ETF money isn’t fleeing.
In fact, the XRP ETF saw a noticeable increase in capital flow in August, and even when the BTC ETF experienced large net outflows in early September, the XRP ETF still had net inflows.
So I don’t really care if it goes up 2% or down 2% today.
What I really want to bet on is:
Whether the market has priced in too much pessimism for XRP.
Of course, $1.34 is not a rock-bottom price.
I wouldn’t even be surprised if it falls below $1.30.
But if I had to choose between two options now:
Chasing a coin that suddenly spikes today, or positioning in an XRP that’s being criticized by the market but hasn’t seen obvious capital withdrawal?
I choose the latter.
And I’ll say this here:
As long as ETF funds don’t show a clear reversal, I’m not bearish on XRP for now.
I’d rather study it when no one is interested than rush in shouting bull market after it jumps by double digits one day.
$XRP $BTC $ETH #韩国全北银行接入Ripple，XRP能否受益 Bitcoin dominance basically measures how much of the entire crypto market's capitalization is held by $BTC.
At the start of a bull market, dominance usually rises because big money hedges by buying Bitcoin first, while altcoins remain untouched.
When dominance hits a high and starts to plateau or even decline, while $ETH and major public chains clearly outperform Bitcoin, that's when the altcoin season's fuse is lit.
The trigger conditions are quite strict: first, Bitcoin must stabilize and not crash, dragging the whole market down; second, the market needs a new narrative, like last year's AI or inscription stories, giving funds a reason to diversify; third, stablecoin inflows must keep increasing, indicating fresh capital entering to buy.
The signals are actually easy to watch: if the weekly dominance breaks below key moving averages and altcoin trading volume suddenly spikes, that's basically a precursor.
But don't get too excited too soon. This cycle is different from before—there are more institutions, and capital only recognizes a few top projects, making broad altcoin rallies increasingly difficult.
So even if the signal comes, you have to pick projects with solid fundamentals or strong backing; don't just buy blindly.
Remember, a drop in dominance is only a necessary condition, not sufficient. Be patient and wait for confirmation before acting; don't jump the gun. Nonfarm Preview: Employment Cooling Meets Inflation Rebound, Market Awaits Fed Signal
This Friday, the U.S. nonfarm payroll data will be released, with the market facing the dual challenge of a cooling labor market and a rebound in inflation. This data will be a key reference ahead of the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting, directly impacting rate cut expectations and risk asset pricing.
The U.S. Department of Labor will release the August nonfarm employment report on Friday. The market expects the number of new jobs to continue slowing compared to the previous figure, but recent inflation data has shown signs of a rebound, putting the Fed in a dilemma. If employment data falls short of expectations, it may strengthen market bets on a rate cut cycle, but if wage growth or unemployment rate data indicate persistent inflation, it could curb rate cut expectations. Currently, the CME FedWatch shows about a 65% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, but the recent CPI rebound has caused some traders to reprice.
This nonfarm data will directly affect short-term U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar index (though not analyzed directly, it is mentioned as background), and risk appetite for risk assets. For the crypto market, liquidity expectations are a key transmission channel; for U.S. stocks, tech stocks are highly sensitive to interest rates; for gold, changes in real rate expectations will dominate price fluctuations.
Market Impact:
Indirect beneficiaries:
Crypto Market - BTC (Bitcoin): If the nonfarm data is weaker than expected, it will strengthen rate cut expectations, and liquidity easing expectations will benefit Bitcoin and other risk assets; if the data is stronger than expected, cooling rate cut expectations will exert pressure.
- ETH (Ethereum): Similar to Bitcoin, ETH is affected by macro liquidity expectations.#Saudi crude oil exports fall to a 9-year low, oil prices soar
What really makes me cautious in this round between the US and Iran is not the Strait of Hormuz, but the multiple disruptions emerging in the energy supply chain.
After the US military airstrike on Iran again on September 1, Brent crude oil $BZ quickly rebounded, Saudi exports dropped to multi-year lows, the Red Sea was attacked by Houthis, and the Russian diesel export ban was extended. In other words, it is no longer a single event, but simultaneous pressure on the energy side from the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine. If oil prices continue to surge, the most direct impact will be inflation expectations rising again → rate cut expectations cooling down → risk assets under pressure. This trading logic has already appeared in the market, and once the news broke, $BTC briefly fell below $77,000.
In the short term, don’t rush to be bullish on BTC and $ETH.
BTC still faces strong resistance above 80,000, and is more likely to oscillate weakly, focusing on 75,000 or even 73,000. ETH is relatively weaker; if it can’t hold near 2,450, I believe there is a possibility of further downward support search.
Of course, escalation of war does not necessarily mean BTC will crash. What really determines the market is oil prices, the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations.
So I remain cautious now, not chasing longs, watching resistance on rebounds, preferring to earn less rather than holding firm during times of amplified macro risks.
The above only represents my personal trading views and does not constitute investment advice!The SEC has just moved to update a set of rules that haven't been significantly changed in nearly 40 years.
Do you think tokenized securities are about to be fully deregulated?
On the contrary, Wall Street is starting to accept blockchain, but it’s not ready to give up control.
Apple follows a similar approach.
A few key points:
Blockchain can enter the scene, but it must do so with shackles on. What does that mean?
Transfer agents can use on-chain ledgers to record equity and handle transfers.
But risk control, asset protection, registration, and reporting—none of these can be skipped.
On-chain records do not equal legal ownership. If you hold a stock token in your wallet,
that doesn’t automatically grant you all the legal rights of the corresponding stock.
The final authority still rests with regulated financial institutions.
This is the most critical point.
Technology can be decentralized, but responsibility cannot.
Every on-chain record must be reproducible, traceable, and verifiable.
If something goes wrong, someone must be held accountable, and the efficiency requirements are even higher.
Don’t think that just because it’s on-chain, it can be handled slowly.
Clearing, settlement, and transaction processing standards are actually stricter.
So you’ll notice an interesting shift: in the past, the crypto industry wanted to disrupt Wall Street.
Now, Wall Street is proactively adopting blockchain and transforming it into its own infrastructure.
Blockchain speeds things up, on-chain ledgers handle bookkeeping, smart contracts automate processes,
but ownership, compliance, and regulatory authority remain firmly in the hands of traditional finance.
The true endgame of tokenized securities: Wall Street turns blockchain into its new tool.On August 31, BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $216.7 million, with IBIT contributing $205.9 million; ETH continued its strong momentum, recording a net inflow for the 11th consecutive trading day, amounting to $87.7 million on that day. SOL attracted about $153 million that week, marking the best single-week performance since the product's launch.📊
All three asset types simultaneously attracted capital, resembling active portfolio rebalancing by institutions rather than panic selling. If it were a full-scale withdrawal, it would be hard to explain why ETH and SOL inflows remain so steady. Capital has not left the crypto market; it is just seeking more cost-effective positions.
Current data leans more towards "rotation" rather than "risk aversion." BTC remains the main battlefield, but some funds are tentatively diversifying into ETH and SOL. This structural change often signals that market participants' risk tolerance for the future is rising, rather than a collapse in risk appetite.
It is important to note that ETF flows only reflect part of the demand from traditional channels; on-chain activity and derivatives market signals are equally critical. If capital rotation lacks spot buying support, its sustainability still needs verification. Market sentiment is volatile, and short-term data may not represent long-term trends. Please carefully assess your own risk tolerance.#FOMC Last Set of Data Before Friday's Nonfarm
The current market differences among BTC, ETH, and SOL fundamentally boil down to a battle between capital structure and narrative fulfillment.
$BTC BTC is supported by ETF institutional funds, with its monetary attributes dominating. On the macro level, close attention is paid to the real yield of U.S. Treasuries; during periods of rising interest rates, capital tends to prioritize BTC as a safe haven within the crypto market. Long-term holders on-chain hold their chips firmly, with less large-scale liquidation pressure. However, at this stage, there is a lack of new incremental stories; the halving benefits have been fully priced in, resulting mostly in range-bound oscillations. A major breakout requires a substantial shift in macro liquidity.
$ETH ETH faces the awkward situation of having many narratives but limited fulfillment. Staking yields, Layer 2 scaling, and restaking provide ample conceptual reserves, yet the total locked value in DeFi has not significantly increased, indicating insufficient real on-chain demand. ETH-ETF fund inflows fluctuate greatly, and institutional allocation willingness is much weaker than BTC. Its beta is higher than Bitcoin’s; it performs decently during market rebounds but tends to underperform BTC when the market weakens, making it a "middle ground" asset that neither rises nor falls decisively.
$SOL SOL is purely an amplifier of risk appetite. It has almost no traditional large institutional spot support and is mainly driven by retail investors, quant funds, and the Meme ecosystem. On-chain transaction activity is very high, but value capture ability is weak, with ongoing token unlock selling pressure. When market sentiment is hot, it has explosive power; once risk appetite declines, concentrated leveraged liquidations can cause rapid and deep drops, accompanied by high regulatory uncertainty.
The three present a clear gradient: BTC for safe haven, ETH for trend speculation, and SOL for sentiment speculation. Future market trends will still be dominated by U.S. Treasury yields and market leverage levels.
This analysis involves many market variables. The work task mode can assist in risk point sorting and structured comparison. Should we continue using it?The most interesting part of today’s market is not that $XRP is pulling back. It is that institutional demand has remained strong while price has weakened. U.S. spot XRP ETFs have now recorded 11 consecutive trading sessions of net inflows, adding roughly $170M during the streak. On September 1 alone, they attracted $14.38M. Yet XRP is trading around $1.33, below its late August peak near $1.45. That divergence matters. Normally, persistent institutional buying and weakening price would suggest Brothers, today I actually think the focus is not on how much the market has risen, but that the September rate hike expectations have suddenly risen again.
Currently, the market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate hike on September 16 has returned to around 62%—70%, whereas a week ago it was less than 40%. The change is indeed very fast. Rising oil prices, increasing inflation concerns, and more hawkish comments from Waller are all pushing up rate hike expectations.
But we still can't directly say "September hike is certain." August ADP added only 38,000 jobs, showing a clear cooling in employment; Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the key. If employment continues to weaken, rate hike expectations may cool down again; if employment holds up and oil prices remain high, then the Fed will face greater pressure.
So the logic for the stock and crypto markets now is simple: Oil prices ↑ → Inflation concerns ↑ → US Treasury yields ↑ → Rate cut expectations ↓ → Risk assets under pressure.
$BTC has returned to around 77,500, $ETH to around 2,400. I don't currently think funds have completely fled; it seems more like waiting for the nonfarm payrolls and the September FOMC to confirm the direction.
BTC looks at 77,000, ETH at 2,380. Holding these levels means consolidation and recovery; a real break below would require guarding against a deeper correction. At this position, patience is more important than chasing orders.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 Breaking! Trump to announce the end of the Iran war? Oil prices instantly plunge, but the crypto market falls first out of respect!
Just now, WTI crude oil dropped 1% intraday, currently at $88.23 per barrel. The trigger was a US media report revealing Trump is privately discussing with senior aides the possibility of announcing the end of the Iran war.
Honestly, many people misunderstand the impact of this on the crypto market. They think the end of the war is positive, risk appetite will rise, and funds should rush into crypto. But I tell you, the short-term is actually the opposite: falling oil prices mean cooling inflation expectations, US Treasury yields may follow down, but this crypto market rally has been supported by geopolitical risk sentiment. Once that expectation disappears, leveraged longs will be the first to be liquidated. In the past 24 hours, $370 million has already been liquidated, and Bitcoin was once pushed down near 77,200.
Short-term, be prepared for a pullback, don’t rush to jump in. But in the mid-term, if geopolitical tensions ease and oil prices stabilize, the Fed’s policy space could open up, which would be the real takeoff window for Bitcoin.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 $BTC $CL $BZ #FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday
If the nonfarm payrolls weaken significantly again on Friday, will the Fed still dare to raise rates in September?
The current U.S. economy is actually a bit conflicted.
The employment side has clearly cooled down; ADP added only 38,000 in August, the lowest since January this year, far below expectations. The latest Beige Book also shows that overall employment only increased slightly, with weak hiring intentions.
But the trouble lies in inflation. The core PCE year-on-year in July was still 3.3%, unchanged for two consecutive months, and still significantly far from the 2% target. Meanwhile, cost pressures from energy and tariffs are starting to rise again.
So I think the real importance of Friday's nonfarm payrolls is not just how many jobs were added, but whether the cooling in employment is fast enough to outweigh inflation risks.
Currently, the market pricing for a September rate hike has risen above 60%, even once approaching 70%.
My judgment is:
If nonfarm payrolls are below 50,000 and the unemployment rate rises above 4.2%, the rate hike expectations will likely cool rapidly, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar will come under pressure, and growth stocks, especially the AI sector, may instead see a wave of recovery.
But if nonfarm payrolls rise back above 100,000 and wage growth remains strong, then trouble arises. The market may continue to trade for higher interest rates, and U.S. stock valuations will face significant pressure.
I lean more toward the former scenario: employment is already weak enough to not be ignored, but inflation is not low enough for the Fed to easily turn dovish. September 16 is more likely to be a very tangled policy choice rather than a simple rate hike or cut trade.
DYOR From cutting losses and exiting in January, to precisely bottom-fishing in April and continuously adding positions on pullbacks, ultimately locking in a 1036% return with 5x leverage (nearly $400,000 unrealized profit) — the trading strategy of address 0xbf34 on LIT demonstrates an extremely hardcore professional trader's discipline. This is by no means gambler's luck maxed out, but a typical right-side swing trade of “decisive stop-loss + patient wait for exhaustion + pyramid adding after trend confirmation.”
Decisive stop-loss and patient bottom-fishing: never stubbornly hold losing positions, only act at critical points. Most retail investors lose because they “can't hold profits and stubbornly hold losses.” This address showed strong risk control discipline in trial and error on January 31:
Cut losses quickly: On January 31, attempted a long position but quickly closed it after noticing momentum was off, stopping loss at $17,900. This step directly helped avoid the following nearly two-month prolonged downtrend where LIT dropped to $0.78 bottom.
Wait for liquidity exhaustion: Until March 31, when LIT touched the $0.78 bottom stage, the trader did not blindly guess the bottom; instead, entered on April 1 when price rebounded to $0.858 (only 10% above bottom). This shows waiting for the bears to fully release selling pressure and a clear stop-down signal before betting.
True pyramid adding: Maximizing “adding on unrealized profits,” many traders like “reverse pyramid adding” (buy a little at bottom, then chase heavily as price rises), causing average price to beBrothers, last night the US tech stocks were on fire again, Broadcom's earnings exceeded expectations, Snowflake directly raised its full-year guidance, and the AI bubble is getting bigger and bigger. On the surface, this seems like a matter of chips and cloud data, unrelated to the crypto world, but if you think carefully: these earnings reports show that companies are still pouring money into AI, risk appetite is rising, and funds are willing to pay for high valuations. This sentiment does transmit to the crypto world, after all, Bitcoin is increasingly linked with tech stocks. But to be honest, the crypto world’s real lifeline is still CPI and the Federal Reserve; earnings reports are at most appetizers, the real main course is inflation data. Let's first talk about the impact of CPI on the crypto world. The recent CPI data has shown an overall downward trend, but it is still far from the Fed's 2% target. For crypto, as long as CPI data does not rebound beyond expectations, it's good news. Moderately declining inflation means that rate cut expectations can be maintained, the story of loose liquidity can still be told, and risk assets including Bitcoin have support. But if one day CPI suddenly rises, the picture won't look good; panic over rate hikes will come, and both Bitcoin and Ethereum will get hammered. So now the market is becoming more sensitive to CPI data, and volatility noticeably tightens before each release, as everyone is betting on the direction. So can the optimistic sentiment of this earnings season transmit to the crypto world? There will be some short-term emotional resonance, but don't expect too much. No matter how strong the AI narrative in the US stock market is, it still depends on the Fed’s stance, and the Fed only looks at two data points: inflation and employment. So the funds in the crypto world really care about CPI and non-farm payrolls; earnings reports just help the market warm up.🔥$BTC September Macro Calendar: Nonfarm Payrolls, CPI, and FOMC—Three Key Tests, Focus on the "Expectation Gap"
When trading BTC in September, don’t just draw the 77k horizontal line; the real direction depends on the expectation gaps of three events. First, the September 4/5 Nonfarm Payrolls: August ADP private sector added only 38,000 jobs, relatively weak for the year. If Nonfarm Payrolls are weak again, it should suppress rate hike expectations; however, with oil prices back above 90, the market fears stagflation from "weak employment + sticky inflation." Weak data may not boost the market, while strong data is more likely to push the 10-year US Treasury yield (currently about 4.8%—4.81%) even higher. Second, the September 11 CPI: Brent and WTI crude oil are relatively strong due to US-Iran/Hormuz tensions. If the energy component pushes core CPI higher, even if the overall year-over-year is moderate, the Fed’s hawkish stance will be firmer; conversely, if core services cool down, the 79k—80k resistance will be easier to break. Third, the September 15–16 FOMC: The market prices in about a 62%—66% chance of a rate hike in September. The key is not "whether to hike," but the statement and dot plot—hiking but then pausing could lead to a rebound after the bad news is priced in; no hike but a still hawkish dot plot will limit the rebound. Combine this with ETF weekly flows and TMM: if Nonfarm Payrolls are weak + CPI is weak + ETF inflows continue, 77k could grind up to 79k; if data is strong + ETF net outflows continue, 76.5k will be tested and breaking 75k won’t be easily supported. With low implied volatility, don’t use leverage to bet on single-day moves. BTC is currently profiting from "data surprising expectations," not from sideways consolidation gains.
$BTC #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注
On September 2, SPDR Gold Trust increased its holdings by 9.98 tons in a single day, pushing its total holdings back above 1056 tons. Spot gold simultaneously pulled back to $4387, approaching the 4400 level.
To be honest, this level of accumulation at a high gold price environment indicates it's not retail investors itching to buy, but institutions seriously allocating. The underlying logic remains unchanged—US Treasury term premium rising, ongoing de-dollarization, central banks continuing gold purchases; gold’s role as a "sovereign credit hedge" is becoming increasingly clear.
But I want to say something different.
This round is not a blind bull market.
The options market has already signaled this—the implied volatility is rising but nowhere near the crazy levels seen in Q1. Traders are mostly using bull spreads and exotic options to reduce cost for longs, indicating money is flowing in, but no one dares to go all in.
What does this mean? Gold’s volatility will become a "mechanical amplifier"—when prices rise, dealers hedge buy orders to fuel the rally; when prices fall, they unwind hedges causing mechanical selling pressure. The volatility will be more irrational than you expect.
My judgment is simple:
The long-term logic is sound; 4400 is very likely not the top, and the core position can be held. But in the short term, don’t chase spreads. Whether the September FOMC rate cut expectation materializes is the real switch going forward. Calling a "bottom confirmation" just because of a single-day ETF inflow is risky.
In terms of strategy, use the gold $XAU ETF as a core allocation, not as a thematic stock to speculate on. If you want to trade options, bull spreads are much more cost-effective than buying naked calls—when implied volatility retreats, naked calls die first. BTC and ETH, two completely different market personalities
$BTC is like a steady middle-aged person; despite the whirlwind of external news and market fluctuations, its foundation remains solid. It withstands heavy sell-offs without collapsing and rises without impulsive surges, moving at a steady, measured pace.
$ETH is more like an emotionally expressive young person, extremely sensitive to external news. When the US stock AI sector moves, it immediately follows the excitement. Positive news makes it aim for a rally, while negative news triggers a swift and decisive pullback, showing full elasticity.
Currently, earnings reports are injecting confidence into tech stocks. If the US stock market maintains strength overnight, market risk appetite will rise, giving ETH extra upward momentum. Conversely, if US stocks open high but close low, ETH, with its high volatility, will be the first to face pressure and pull back.
News is only a short-term catalyst; the real determinants of the big picture are US Treasury yields and non-farm payroll data. In short-term trading, don't let fragmented news disrupt your rhythm—identify the main trend before making a move. #日本长债收益率升至高位
Don't just focus on the 10-year yield; the "scissor spread" between the 2-year and 10-year yields is the key.
Bro, the 10-year US Treasury yield hitting a new high since November 2023 is like a sword hanging over US stocks and crypto assets.
Simply put, the logic is straightforward: this yield is the anchor for global asset pricing. When it rises, borrowing costs increase, putting pressure on tech stocks and high-risk speculative assets like Bitcoin that rely on future growth expectations. Capital will flow out of risk assets and back into risk-free interest. US stocks, especially the Nasdaq and crypto sectors, get hammered directly.
But is it more reasonable to just watch the 10-year yield? I think looking at it alone isn't enough; you have to consider the scissor spread (yield spread) between the 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries.
This is the key. An inverted spread (2-year yield higher than 10-year) has long been a classic recession warning signal for the US economy. If only the 10-year yield rises but the 2-year yield rises even more, deepening the inversion, it means the market isn't trading on strong economic growth but on expectations that the Fed will tighten more aggressively. This is the real bombshell for all risk assets. The current situation looks more like the entire market is repricing interest rate expectations, not just watching a single number.
So, don't just look at one point; watch the "distance" between these two lines. $BTC Let's take a look at the four altcoins I'm shorting and show my current real positions.
The $ZORA short is still open, 10x leverage, entry at 0.010419, current price 0.007783, floating profit +252%, holding on to see.
$BICO short, 10x leverage, entry at 0.0253, current price 0.02123, floating profit +160%, logic verified, altcoins only get weaker when the market pulls back.
$EGLD took a loss on this one, entry at 4.488, 20x leverage, current price 5.295, floating loss -359%. A coin that has been steadily declining since launch, suddenly it pumped dozens of points during market instability. I just want to see how far it can pretend. Contract positions are 39 million, long-short ratio 6 to 4, so many chasing longs, they will have to pay eventually.
Also in ARB, entry at 0.11373, 20x leverage, current price 0.13113, floating loss -305%. It pumped riding the OpenSea news, but on-chain data shows 99% wash trading, with a token unlock on September 16. The pump is just giving you a chance to exit.
Currently holding these four shorts, ZORA and BICO are running profits, EGLD and ARB are holding losses. My logic hasn't changed — no trend in the market, altcoins are high-risk shorts, the harder they pump, the harder they crash. Today I reviewed the market again, and I think the opportunities in September might be completely different from those in August. In August, $BTC rose nearly 25%, with spot ETFs seeing a net inflow of about $3.52 billion in a single month, clearly concentrating funds in Bitcoin. But after the start of September, BTC returned to above $77,000, and the market began to show a change: if funds are no longer willing to continue chasing BTC, where will they go next? Currently, I am focusing on four lines. The first is trading infrastructure: HYPE, BNB. The biggest advantage of these assets is that the more active the market, the higher the trading demand, and the protocol itself is more likely to generate revenue. They do not rely solely on "crypto narratives" but benefit from trading activity. The second is DeFi: AAVE, UNI, LINK. I actually think this line is worth long-term observation. Because if stablecoins, on-chain lending, and RWA continue to expand in the future, DeFi does not need BTC to hit new highs to grow. What really matters is whether on-chain funds return. The third is high-performance public chains: SOL, SUI, APT. Especially APT, which showed a relatively obvious technical breakthrough today, indicating that some funds have begun to seek relatively independent trading opportunities. But never chase these coins just because they rise. Whether the breakthrough can hold is more important than the breakthrough itself. The fourth is financial assets on-chain: XRP, ONDO, LINK. I think this line might be worth continuous tracking in September and even throughout the second half of the year $CORE No wonder it keeps falling, turns out the total supply isn't fixed?
Validators are over-extracting rewards, so whether the total supply is 2.1 billion now can only be a big question mark❓
But this reminds me of the $ZEC inflation bug in June, which directly caused ZEC to drop from $600 to $200, a very brutal crash. And what happened? ZEC actually hit a new high not long ago and is still at a high level.
Looking back, the ZEC whales precisely used the negative news to conduct a deep shakeout, which was key to the new high.
Looking back at CORE, there are way too many retail investors trapped in this coin, and they keep averaging down. There are many posts on the planet praising CORE. Without a deep shakeout, a big pump is unlikely.
The reason whales pump is always one: retail investors have no coins left. Whether $CORE whales are creating negative news to shake out is still to be observed.
#FOMC last set of data before Friday's nonfarm payroll
#Earnings Watcher: Broadcom beats expectations, Snowflake raises guidance
#Saudi crude oil exports fall to 9-year low, oil prices soar The crypto market is showing signs of pressure in September. BTC is still around $77K, while market sentiment remains cautious. Derivatives volume and DEX activity have also cooled recently. (MarketWatch) But one number is worth watching: Total stablecoin market cap remains close to $304B. It has still grown about 1.3% over the past 30 days, with USDT accounting for around 60%. (DeFiLlama) What does this mean? Prices are cooling, but on-chain “dollar liquidity” has not left at the same pace. EveFunds are starting to shift seats, why is gold moving first?
Gold has surged back above $4400 in the past two days, but don’t just focus on the nearly 10-ton daily increase in gold ETFs.
This looks more like funds are relocating.
Recently, US Treasury yields have fallen, the dollar is loosening, plus the ADP employment data was weak, and the nonfarm payroll report is coming up on Friday, causing rate cut expectations to swing again.
The "nonfarm" data itself has made investors more cautious about risk assets. Previously, everyone was willing to chase risk, but now seeing US Treasury yields, employment, and policy expectations all conflicting, funds naturally start to allocate more to gold.
So this round of gold’s rise shouldn’t be simply understood as "someone buying gold."
It’s more like risk capital is rearranging its positions.
Moreover, if options hedging continues to keep pace, the gold rally could be further amplified.
The real test coming up is the nonfarm payrolls.
If the data is weak, gold may continue to benefit from expectations; if the data is too strong, US Treasury yields will rise, and gold will have to cool off first.
Whether this wave is risk aversion or a new trend will be revealed on Friday.
$XAU $XAUT
#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 #财报观察员: Broadcom's performance exceeds expectations, Snowflake raises guidance
On the same day after market close, two AI earnings reports showed mixed results:
▪️ Broadcom revenue 29.6 billion (+86%), AI semiconductor 16.7 billion (+221%), Q4 guidance slightly lower → after-hours dropped as much as -6%
▪️ Snowflake product revenue +37%, accelerating for three consecutive quarters, EPS beat expectations by 38%, CoCo accounts 9100 → after-hours +21%
The disagreement is not about AI strength; both proved strong. Broadcom was hit because growth wasn't fast enough—only 1.2% above expectations, while the market wants surprises; Snowflake surged because expectations were crushed—previously no one believed software could capture AI revenue.
TC perspective: This reflects sentiment temperature, not pricing signals. The real beneficiaries are the miners turned AI landlords; BTC money flow is not controlled by Broadcom.
AI money flows from chips to software, who’s next?$BASED Most people view $BASED incorrectly. They compare this app's trading volume to Phantom and MetaMask, see a $16 million token stuck at floor price after a long 150-day accumulation, and say it's dead. This is front-end analysis. Tokens are a different kind of trade. Phantom, MetaMask, and Rabby don't have a thin Bybit token to reprice Hyperliquid's consumer layer. Trust Wallet has TWT — but TWT is Binance wallet coin, not a pure HL native stake. Based is one of the few low market cap tokens truly situated on Hyperliquid's order flow, cards, perpetual contracts, stocks, and proxies. About 100 million of the total 235 million circulating are staked. The circulating float ratio chart looks tighter. On Bybit, this setup doesn't wait for perfect fundamentals. Trash listings can print 20–50x purely on narrative and liquidity. This is not trash. This is a real product, routing over $45 billion in trading volume, backed by Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid is the venue. Based is the leveraged chip on the interface. If the market starts pricing in “HL entering onshore / clear week / US perpetual contracts,” it won't carefully allocate to the best wallets based on 30-day volume. It will buy the lowest liquidity token tied to that tech stack. Volume leaders don't always own tokens. Tokens own stories.#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注
Top global gold ETFs have increased holdings by nearly 10 tons again, with clear signs that institutions are buying on dips. At the same time, implied volatility of gold options has risen in tandem, intensifying the market's long-short battles. This signal will also indirectly transmit to the crypto market.
Continuous ETF accumulation represents traditional institutions' recognition of gold's value as a safe-haven asset. With geopolitical tensions combined with the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls and FOMC meetings, funds are flowing into precious metals early to hedge against macro uncertainties. However, rising options volatility is not simply a bullish signal; it only indicates that the market expects significantly amplified two-way volatility ahead, with both sharp rises and falls possible.
Personal view: accumulation is a medium-term positive, but the surge in volatility calls for caution regarding short-term pullback risks. Don't blindly chase longs just because ETFs are adding positions. Historically, when volatility reaches high levels, it often means sentiment has hit a phase peak and profit-taking can occur at any time.
The recent renewed strength in the correlation between gold and BTC means that gold's strength can provide emotional support to the crypto space; once gold experiences a rapid pullback, BTC is also likely to be dragged down.
From a practical standpoint, do not take gold ETF inflows as a direct basis for going long BTC. With the heavy Nonfarm Payrolls data approaching and significant macro uncertainties, contracts must reduce leverage. Spot positions can retain base holdings but avoid chasing highs; wait for data release and then follow market signals.
Follow-up tracking: Nonfarm employment data, US Treasury yields, changes in gold options positions. $XAU