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This wave of storage has basically ended.
SanDisk and Western Digital exceeded expectations, but their stock prices fell after hours. The signal was clear: the bull market is over. But ending doesn't mean there isn't a single bullish candle at all. Institutional selling has never been a straight sell-off; it's always a fluctuating downward trend, selling while pulling up. Every rebound is more suitable for reducing positions rather than chasing highs.
The core is simple: at low levels, look at fundamentals; at high levels, look at capital flows.
Micron's trapped assets have suffered losses exceeding $140 billion. To reach new highs, a massive amount of new capital is needed. Without new funds, the stock competition can't hold on. Now, US stocks have long been a stock market, with giants and chip stocks on the seesaw simply because of a lack of funds.
Liquidity is still deteriorating. Major players have reduced their buybacks from 300 billion yuan annually and issued massive bonds for AI, causing the market to drop 700 billion yuan out of thin air. SK Hynix and SpaceX are seeking IPOs and are trying to withdraw another 150 billion, followed by trillion-yuan companies like OpenAI and Anthropic waiting to go public. The money won't increase, only move out of existing stocks.
Samsung and SK Hynix are even harder than Micron—trapped at high levels are even heavier, foreign capital has already made a move, and the Korean market is still actively deleveraging. Relying on retail investors to push back to the high? Unrealistic.
The industry is at the end of its expansion cycle. Leading companies can still see revenue and profits grow, but the focus of market trading has shifted to whether profit margins have peaked. Growth stock prices peaking is never about waiting for a profit turning point, but rather a turning point for profit margins. Stock prices usually react six months ahead of the industry peak.
In the next two quarters, storage companies are very likely to maintain growth, but profit margins in the second quarter may have already peaked. If gross margins cannot be raised further, valuations will compress and stock prices will fluctuate downward.
So even if $SNDK and WDC outperform expectations, it's useless; if the guidance is weak, funds will leave directly. The semiconductor sector is under overall pressure, and any weak guidance will be amplified as a reason to sell.
There will be a rebound, but don't fool yourself that it's a reversal.
So where is the real rebound? I think it's in the crypto world
On Bitcoin and Ethereum
As funds are transferred, the speculative focus will become $BTC and $ETH
The emperor takes turns as emperor, next year it's my turn!
#存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable? $BICO It surged violently from around the bottom of 0.011 in just a few days, reaching a high of 0.046, with a maximum increase close to 340%, directly rising to the top of the gainers' list. Don't rush in to bet on a new main rally
If you combine candlestick movements, contract positions, funding rates, chip circulation, and on-chain movements, the reasons for this surge are completely different from what most people imagine
Looking at market information, BICO is now 100% fully circulated, with no subsequent large unlocking and selling pressure. This is one of its few positive factors: 1 billion coins in circulation, market cap 273 million, making it a small-cap altcoin. Small-cap coins are easily leveraged by contract funds and don't require large spot funds to make huge price swings
Key points can be seen from the 4-hour open interest (OI) chart:
During the continuous upward surge in price, open interest did not continuously expand in sync; prices kept hitting new highs, OI surged and then quickly retreated, with no new bulls continuously entering to accumulate positions. This is a very typical short squeeze squeezing short position. The previous continuous decline accumulated many low-level short positions. After the price started, short positions kept stopping losses to close positions. Closing short positions was essentially buying, directly pushing the price upward rapidly
Looking at funding rates, the rate maintained a positive rate for a long time, then quickly turned negative after a rally, indicating that after the surge, a large number of users began chasing the rally to open long positions, causing the proportion of long positions to rise sharply and market sentiment to be directly FOMO. The proportion of long-short contract accounts surged in the short term, showing obvious signs of retail investors chasing long positions
The 24-hour turnover approached 300 million USDT. The volume looks explosive, but most of it is contract trading back and forth. The spot trading volume is not as strong as it appears. For small-cap altcoins, once contract leverage dominates the market, the price swings can be extremely extreme. After a surge, the bulls concentrate and liquidate, leading to rapid pullbacks. You can also see from the candlestick chart: after a spike to 0.046, it quickly plunged down, resulting in a violent consolidation
There's another point many people get wrong: when prices surge, it's like big players secretly accumulating funds. But from on-chain data, that's not the reason
This round of rapid rally did not show any signs of massive whale accumulation continuously withdrawing from exchanges
A true bottom-reversal will inevitably occur as large tokens are transferred out of exchanges, and the big players' wallets continue to accumulate chips, locking up spot chips in their wallets
But this time with BICO, it's more about internal exchange token turnover
Some large players who were trapped early took advantage of this rally to transfer their tokens in bulk to exchanges, selling in batches on high prices. On-chain, more tokens flowed into exchanges than were withdrawn and hoarded
Smart Wallet mostly trades short-term swing trading, making a quick profit and then exiting, with no signs of long-term lock-up positioning
In other words, at the spot level, large funds have not entered the market on a large scale; the core driving force behind price increases comes from contract leveraged short squeezes, with spot prices only passively following
Looking at the daily chart, it experienced a brutal decline earlier, with a low of 0.011, which is deeply oversold and already has technical rebound demand
The 4-hour chart has seen consecutive strong bullish candlesticks with huge short-term gains. At the 15-minute chart, signs of a bearish divergence have already appeared, surging to 0.046 before quickly pulling back, with heavy resistance above.
Support: Around 0.027, the key platform for this round of initiation;
Strong resistance: 0.046 Previous high. To truly reverse the trend, volume must increase and hold this position, combined with on-chain accumulation + contract position boosting. Both conditions are indispensable
The current market is merely a revenge rebound driven by contract leverage after an oversold price
Several core risks to be cautious of
1. Contract leverage dominates the market
Market cap is only 273 million, but daily contract turnover is close to 300 million. Contract leverage funds completely dominate the price. In this market, when prices rise, prices surge; when prices fall, they sell without resistance. Double blowouts between long and short are common, and it's easy for a single candlestick to swallow most of the profits
2. No whale spot reserves as a backup
If only contract funds were driven by contract funds, once the short squeeze ends, without spot funds continuously taking over, the market can easily quickly return to its original downward channel. Many of these chips are now bought by retail investors chasing high prices
3. Sentiment among small-cap altcoins is fading rapidly
This short-term rally is fierce but also falls quickly. Sometimes the day's gains can be lost in just a few minutes. Don't mindlessly go all in on consecutive bullish candles
For a truly bullish confirmation signal, both conditions must be met simultaneously
On-chain: There are continuous large withdrawals from exchanges, whale addresses keep accumulating spot tokens, and tokens flow out of exchanges
Futures: Price has stabilized above the 0.046 high with increased volume, and open interest is steadily rising, not a rapid pullback after a surge. The funding rate remains healthy, rather than switching between sharp rises and falls
Only when both conditions are met can it be considered a trend reversal again
Relying solely on candlesticks and bullish candlesticks without the support of chips and capital can only be treated as a rebound
To summarize in conclusion
$BICO This rally is essentially a violent rally triggered by deep oversold conditions + concentrated short squeezes by short sellers + retail FOMO sentiment resonance
Spot whales have not entered the market on a large scale; the main driving force comes from contract leverage
You can do short-term trading, but it's definitely not suitable for long-term heavy positions
If you participate, be sure to strictly set stop-losses and not be deceived by short-term huge gains, treating rebounds as a new round of main rally chasing higher prices
The above is only a review of market and on-chain data and does not constitute any investment advice
$BICO #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard Let's talk about the reaction of storage stocks after this earnings report wave; I really can't quite understand it.
SanDisk's Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%. Adjusted EPS was $39.25, 135 times that of the same period last year. Gross margin hit 84.6%. Data center business revenue doubled quarter-over-quarter and surged 1298% year-over-year. They also approved a $14 billion buyback.
Western Digital was similar, with revenue of $3.75 billion, up 44% year-over-year, adjusted EPS of $3.56, up 109% year-over-year. Net profit soared 12 times.
Any single earnings report alone is a dominating performance.
And then? SanDisk fell 7% after hours, Western Digital dropped 11%. The next day pre-market, SanDisk continued down 8%, Western Digital down 15%. The Asia-Pacific market followed suit, with the South Korean composite index dropping over 5%, SK Hynix down nearly 10%, Samsung Electronics down over 6%.
The better the performance, the harder the fall. This script has been replayed repeatedly this year—SK Hynix fell 30% intraday after Q2 earnings, Samsung's profit surged 1810% but its stock price fell 6%.
Where's the problem? It's in the guidance.
SanDisk's next quarter revenue guidance is $10.3 to $10.8 billion, midpoint $10.55 billion. What was the market expectation? $10.8 to $11.16 billion. A difference of less than $600 million caused a 9% stock price collapse.
Western Digital is even more unfair; next quarter revenue guidance midpoint is $4.1 billion, actually higher than analysts' expectation of $4.06 billion. Yet it still fell 15% after hours.
Goldman Sachs analysts said it bluntly: "The core contradiction currently facing the storage industry is not a deterioration in fundamentals, but that market expectations have outpaced reality."
#AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound The scale of on-chain capital accumulation is diverging from the tightening pace of circulating funds, and the logic of pools and gas burns is rewriting token liquidity.
The issuance scale of on-chain stablecoins on X Layer has surpassed $2.1 billion, while DeFi TVL has grown nearly tenfold in half a year, surpassing the $100 million mark.
A total of 4.2 million active addresses and over 400 million interactions triggered high-frequency gas consumption, while Exchange-OS deployment staking has thus locked in some of the circulating $OKB in the market.
The liquidity injection from stablecoins drives staking locks and frequent interactions, and this accumulation of capital directly converts on-chain activity into ongoing passive deflation in the circulating market.
If stablecoin scale continues to expand upward and on-chain transaction volume remains at current levels, improvements in deflation will drive valuation reshaping, while a cliff-like drop in application layer activity signals that this path is failing.
If overall crypto market liquidity declines and daily transaction volume drops significantly, the slowdown in gas consumption will weaken deflation expectations, and at this time, increased staking unlocks will naturally trigger price pressure.
The market debate is whether the accumulated funds are short-term arbitrage or long-term retention. If both the number of active addresses and total staking decline continuously, the long-term support for deflationary logic will be disproven.
The most important variable to watch over the next 7 days is whether the average daily on-chain transaction volume can continue to grow while stablecoin volume is maintained.
#谷歌母公司发债250亿美元, AI investment pressure heats up #闪迪财报双超预期, with an additional $14 billion in buyback authorizationsNow that both coins have dropped like this, if you go long in the short term, can you take a profit? Especially $ZBT, which has already dropped 27%. But look at the open interest: after a surge at the open, the overall trend fluctuated downward. During the big drop, the position clearly declined, then slightly recovered. This 27% plunge was accompanied by a decrease in holdings, mainly through stop-loss and forced liquidation, marking a round of panic selling; However, there has been no sign of incremental funds entering the market aggressively, pushing positions back up. Looking at this long-short ratio is pushed to a very low level, with short accounts accounting for the vast majority for a long time. The vast majority of retail investors chose to follow the trend and chase shorts, collectively bearish, and bearish sentiment fully vented. From the perspective of sentiment games, this is a condition for a possible rebound, but ≠ will definitely rebound. Multiple pulse volume surges, alternating between active buying and selling; Near the session, trading volume shrank, and active selling was slightly advantageous. There were only sporadic buying impulses, with no signs of large funds actively entering the market to buy the dip. Retail investors are heavily bottom-fishing and opening long, with sentiment biased and high reverse risk. Retail investors collectively chase short positions, venting bearish sentiment, providing a foundation for a game rebound. After highs, concentrated closing positions is carried out. Declines are accompanied by forced liquidations and passive liquidation, triggering a wave of panic. No sustained active buying, with heavy selling pressure at the close. Only impulse buying, no sustained entry of large funds. It is not recommended to buy long at the dip now. Extremely high-risk gambling, heavy positions are prohibited. #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable? #联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation? #财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded, Spa$BTC 《CLARITYAct》（即《数字资产市场清晰法案》）旨在为美国数字资产市场建立明确的监管框架，其核心是界定数字资产的监管管辖权：明确监管主体：满足特定去中心化标准的数字资产将被视为“数字商品”，由商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）监管；而证券型数字资产则继续由证券交易委员会（SEC）监管。设立合规路径：该法案为数字资产交易所、托管机构等中介机构设立了统一的注册和合规标准，并为去中心化金融（DeFi）协议提供了法律确定性。该法案的通过被视为为加密行业提供监管清晰度的关键一步，有望终结当前监管不确定的局面，并为机构资金大规模入场铺平道路。Western Union connects stablecoins, Solana, and Visa payment scenarios, which is more practical than many public chain narratives.
It's not just about issuing another stablecoin. What Western Union really wants to do is integrate on-chain dollars into its original remittance network: user receipts, offline cashing, merchant spending, and cross-border settlement, all trying to avoid being stuck by bank business days and correspondent bank chains.
What stablecoins have always lacked is not on-chain transfer speed, but the "last mile."
You can receive funds in 3 seconds, but if the other party can't get local cash, swipe a card, or pass compliance, then it's just a number in a wallet. Western Union's strength lies in its existing global outlets and risk control network, now using stablecoins as a backend settlement layer.
The real breakthrough is not shouting Web3, but making users not need to know they are using blockchain at all.
#西联稳定币卡落地，Visa支付场景再推进 #AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
结论先讲清楚：AI 内存牛市的基本面还在，但预期无限上修的阶段已经过去。 现在进入高波动、高预期校准期。财报后下挫，更多是估值和预期管理问题，不是需求崩了。
Western Digital 和 Sandisk（闪迪）发布FY26 Q4财报后，股价分别大跌约13%和7-10%，拖累整个存储板块（SK海力士、美光、三星、铠侠等同步走弱）。事实是：
• 西部数据Q4营收37.5亿美元（+44% YoY），超预期；指引下一季约41亿美元量级，基本符合或略超部分共识。
• Sandisk Q4营收约89.7亿美元（同比暴增数倍），毛利率极高；下一季指引103-108亿美元，中值相对部分市场预期偏谨慎。
业绩本身不差，甚至很强。市场卖的是“不够更强”。经过前几个月的暴涨，投资者已经把“持续指数级加速”定价进去了，一旦指引只是“符合/略超”，就触发获利了结。
更大背景：业绩爆炸，股价却回调？
这不是第一次。6-7月已经反复上演同样剧本：
• 美光Q3（截至5月）营收414.6亿美元（+346% YoY），毛利率接近85%，指引下一季约500亿美元量级 → 初期大涨后，从高点回调显著。
• SK海力士Q2营收+257%、营业利润+557%，创纪录，但略低于超高预期 → 单日大跌近10%。
• 三星二季度营业利润同比暴增约19倍 → 股价同样承压。
共性很清晰：绝对数字惊人，但相对市场已经抬高的共识，仍不够。板块从6月高点普遍回撤20%-30%以上，进入阶段性熊市区间。
基本面到底稳不稳？
需求端仍然强！AI 数据中心对HBM、高容量DRAM和NAND的需求是结构性的。多家公司和行业研究（TrendForce等）继续指出：供给远跟不上，产能已大量锁定到2027年。长期供应协议大量存在（美光此前已签下规模很大的多年度合同）。HBM产能建设周期长（新厂2-3年），短期无法快速释放。
供给与定价？
目前仍是卖方市场。毛利率已升到历史极端水平（部分产品80%+）。TrendForce等机构观点大致是：2026年价格可能出现阶段性平台整理，但2027年随着HBM4渗透，ASP仍有上行空间。NVIDIA等对下一代平台的HBM规格也在根据供应现实做调整，这本身就是短缺的证据，而不是需求消失。
风险点真实存在！
1. 超大规模客户（hyperscaler）资本开支节奏如果放缓，会直接冲击。
2. 2028年前后，新增产能集中释放，可能改变供需平衡。
3. 估值已从“便宜周期股”切换到“高盈利AI基础设施”，对指引敏感度极高。
4. 通用DRAM/NAND被HBM挤占后，消费端成本上升，可能间接影响终端需求。
怎么看当前位置？
• 短期（未来1-2个季度）：波动会继续大。任何指引不及“超高预期”、或宏观/AI CapEx杂音，都会引发抛压。现在不是追高阶段。
• 中期（到2027）：只要AI服务器部署不出现明显断崖，供需缺口和定价权大概率还能维持。回调后，龙头的远期估值仍不离谱（此前不少机构测算远期PE仍在个位数到低双位数区间）。
• 定性判断：这不是经典周期见顶（库存堆积、价格崩盘），而是“超级周期中的预期重置”。牛市的主逻辑（AI驱动的内存结构性短缺）还没被证伪，但赚钱难度和回撤幅度明显上升。
总结：
财报后下挫是预期过热后的正常校准，不是牛市结束信号。真正需要盯的，是下一批大厂指引里“需求可见度”和“产能释放节奏”，而不是单次数字够不够炸。#Alphabet25BBond
Investor demand reportedly reached about $115 billion, demonstrating strong confidence in Alphabet’s credit quality. The proceeds will support general corporate needs, debt management, capital expenditure, and a rapidly expanding AI infrastructure program. Alphabet has raised its expected 2026 capital spending to as much as $205 billion.
The strong demand does not remove concerns about the scale of that investment. Alphabet is spending heavily on data centers, chips, energy, and network capacity while simultaneously reorganizing its AI leadership. In my view, borrowing at attractive rates is sensible when long-term demand is strong, but investors must still evaluate the return produced by each dollar of capital. Google Cloud growth, AI revenue, free cash flow, and utilization of new infrastructure will determine whether the bond sale funds a durable competitive advantage or an expensive capacity race. 🔥 The Israeli military has taken action against Lebanon—can the crypto world avoid this time?
Upon seeing this news, the Israel Defense Forces launched a large-scale strike in the past 24 hours against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, citing the deaths of two Israeli reserve officers in a bombing in southern Lebanon the previous day.
This matter is neither too big nor too small. But at this point in time, it's worth a closer look at crypto insiders.
Let's first clarify the background. Friction between Israel and Hezbollah has been ongoing for some time, but in recent months, it has basically been a state of "mutual harsh threats + small-scale harassment." This time, two Israeli officers were killed, escalating directly into large-scale airstrikes targeting core facilities such as weapons depots and military command centers. This shows Israel's attitude has changed—no longer tolerating it, now it wants real fighting.
So what does this have to do with the crypto world?
It has a big connection.
Whenever there's smoke in the Middle East, global financial markets shake repeatedly. In October 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, causing BTC to plunge from 28,000 to 26,000 on the same day, gold surged, and crude oil surged 10%. In April 2024, Iran and Israel threw missiles at each other, causing market panic for a whole week. Although it hasn't reached that level yet, the tension is already high.
And this time, there's a key variable: gold is near its all-time high.
Gold just surged above $4,200 a few days ago, setting a new all-time high. If the Middle East situation continues to escalate, gold is very likely to surge. But what about BTC? Its correlation with gold is only about 0.15, but it is tightly linked to the Nasdaq. What does this mean? → the Middle East wars, gold rises→ BTC may not necessarily rise. On the contrary, if risk aversion puts pressure on US tech stocks, BTC could suffer as well.
What's even more troublesome is crude oil. Lebanon's Hezbollah is backed by Iran, and if Israel really blows things up, Iran won't just stand by and do nothing. Once Iran gets involved, the risks in the Strait of Hormuz will rise, oil prices will soar→ global inflation expectations will resurface→ the Fed will be even hesitant to cut rates→ risk assets will be under pressure. This transmission chain is all negative for the crypto world.
Of course, there may also be "reverse positives."
If conflicts are controlled locally and shortly, after the market digests the panic, funds may seek "decentralized" narrative outlets. BTC's nature as an "ownerless currency" theoretically benefits when sovereign currency credit is impacted. But this logic holds on the premise: conflict cannot spiral out of control and cannot truly escalate into a large-scale war.
💡 My views and operational approach
1. Don't bet on direction in the short term. Geopolitical black swans are the hardest to predict; you never know what news might break out the next second. Heavy positions, betting on both long and short positions is a gamble on your life.
2. Pay attention to the trends of gold and crude oil. If gold continues to hit new highs and crude oil breaks through key resistance levels, it indicates rising risk aversion, making it wise to reduce positions in risk assets.
3. BTC is currently fluctuating around 64,000, with support below and resistance at 68,000 above. If the price breaks below 60,000 due to geopolitical news, don't rush to bottom-fish; wait until the panic has subsided.
4. Save USDT well. August is already a turbulent month, and now with the Middle East situation compounded, having cash on hand is the only way to pick up bargains when others panic.
Finally, to be honest.
In the Middle East, fighting is easy, but stopping is hard. This time, the Israeli military is responding, but will Hezbollah retaliate? Will Israel escalate after retaliation? Once the cycle of retaliation breaks out, the situation becomes beyond either side's control.
What the crypto world fears most is not negative news, but unpredictable negative news. At times like this, surviving is more important than how much you earn.
👇 Do you think this Middle East conflict will escalate? Or will it calm down after a few days of chaos like before? Let's talk in the comments.#FedHawksVsWeakJobs
US private payrolls increased by only 44,000 in July, below the 75,000 forecast and the weakest gain in six months. The data suggests that employers are becoming more cautious, normally reducing the need for tighter monetary policy. However, Federal Reserve officials remain concerned that inflation has not resumed a convincing downward trend, and markets still assign meaningful odds to a September rate increase.
The conflict between weaker employment and persistent inflation leaves the Fed with no easy decision. In my view, one soft ADP report is not enough to end the debate because official payroll figures, wage growth, unemployment, and CPI data may tell a different story. Crypto would benefit most from a gradual slowdown accompanied by lower inflation, allowing financial conditions to ease without creating recession fears. If jobs weaken while prices remain elevated, Bitcoin and other risk assets could face both slower growth and restrictive interest rates. #AIMemoryBullTest
The AI memory bull case is facing an important reality check. Western Digital fell despite beating expectations as cautious guidance and margin comments worried investors. Sandisk also declined after a strong quarter because its next-quarter revenue midpoint missed consensus. In Korea, SK Hynix and Samsung came under heavy pressure, while reports suggested Nvidia may reduce memory in some Rubin Ultra configurations because advanced HBM supply remains tight.
Memory scarcity is both an opportunity and a risk. Limited supply supports stronger pricing and higher margins for producers, but excessively expensive or unavailable components can delay AI-chip shipments and reduce customer demand. In my view, investors are no longer questioning whether AI needs more memory; they are questioning whether current valuations assume too much pricing power and perfect execution. The next test will be whether manufacturers can expand HBM output without creating future oversupply. Contract prices, capital expenditure, customer inventories, and Nvidia’s product configurations will be more important than broad AI enthusiasm. BTC latest $64,168, 24h -0.74%, falling from last night's 64,900 to the 64,000 mark, rubbing. My judgment is neutral observation—spot positions unmoved, contract shorts, no direction added before non-farm payrolls.
Why not chase this position? Just break down the market and you'll see:
The technical side is stuck in the middle. 65,000 is immediate resistance. Analyst Ted Pillows clearly said that only after recovering 65,000 will the next push to 68,000 will be opened. Crypto.news' liquidation chart shows 63,715 to 63,900 is the first downside liquidity zone; if it breaks, 63,000 is the bottom, then the 60,000 daily moving average box bottom. Only when the daily line above 65,220 stabilizes will the 67,365 to 68,000 path be strengthened. In other words, the current price of 64,000 is a key dividing line with over 1,000 dollars above and below, and the odds are not good.
Liquidity has improved but is not solid. On 8/5, spot BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of about $244.4 million (IBIT 196.8 million + ARKB 37.6 million), totaling 626 million over three days from 8/3 to 8/5, indicating institutions are indeed making replenishments. However, stablecoin supply on the 7th at the same time was -0.11%, indicating that incremental funds have not yet entered the market, and existing tokens are being switched.
Macro tone is set tonight. 20:30 Nonfarm Payroll consensus +80,000, unemployment rate 4.2%, but today Iran's parliament preliminarily reviewed a bill restricting hostile ships from Hormuz. WTI/Brent returned to 77.29/82.49, 10-year real interest rate returned to 2.43%. "Inflation resurgence + hawkish sentiment" trading is back. Adding position before data = betting on size.
I oppose the mainstream simplified narrative of "three consecutive ETF entries = BTC will kick off the second time." ETF inflows are concentrated in IBIT alone; stablecoins haven't expanded, FGI is still in the 31–34 fear zone, and tonight's nonfarm payroll uncertainty is a case-driven capital turnover, not a confirmation of a trend reversal. A real reversal will take time: (1) Nonfarm payrolls won't explode (2) The daily moving average of 65,000 stabilizes (3) Stablecoins turn to net expansion on the 7th—none of these three conditions have been confirmed yet.
My live trade: 61,000 yuan at cost spot bottom position, don't chase above 65,000, daily closing below 63,700 minus one-third to guard against 62,500, buy orders near 62,500. Before non-farm payrolls, total position ≤ 50%.
Tonight at 20:30 non-farm payrolls, will you clear your positions early to hedge risk, keep small positions to gamble on direction, or hold out for 64,000 and other data? 📊 $SNDK Contract Liquidation Express (August 7)
According to liquidation data, this bull market was frantically rubbed by the bull market...
The liquidation amount in the past hour was about $15,900
Long positions were liquidated by about $12,000
Short positions were liquidated at about $3,919.80
The liquidation amount in the past 4 hours was approximately $422,200
Long positions were liquidated at about $408,300
Short positions were liquidated by about $13,800
The liquidation amount in the past 12 hours was approximately $1.6389 million
The long position liquidation was about $1.2876 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $351,300
The liquidation amount in the past 24 hours was approximately $9.9467 million
Long positions were liquidated by about $5.2638 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $4.6829 million
From $SNDK liquidation data, 1-hour and 4-hour long liquidations crushed the shorts, with long liquidations being 3 times and 29 times the shorts, and the long sell-off rally was fierce in the short cycle; The 12-hour bullish advantage narrowed sharply, dropping to 3.6 times, with short-selling strength significantly strengthened; 24-hour long liquidations surged to $5.26 million, but the ratio dropped to 1.12 times, with long-term bear resistance rising sharply—short liquidations surged from $350,000 in 12 hours to $4.68 million, approaching the bullish level. Dog Maker completed the short- and medium-term long sell-off and long-term long-short tug-of-war on SNDK, with cumulative liquidations surpassing $9.94 million, with uncertainty about the direction choice. Everyone should control their positions to avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 7
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "fully loaded expectations, flaws must be eliminated"—"exceeding expectations" is just the passing line, and any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage stocks plunged after earnings reports: the more explosive the earnings, the harder the drops fell
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" financial report: Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital reported $3.747 billion in revenue during the same period. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 557%.
However, SanDisk's stock plunged nearly 8% after hours. The culprit is the guidance—next quarter's median revenue is $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market's pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "good performance" to "whether growth is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market stable? UBS forecasts total storage industry revenue to reach $992 billion in 2026 and nearly double to $1.76 trillion by 2027, with HBM as the core driving force. But short-term corrections are equally real—as of the end of July, leading AI storage companies had an average drawdown of about 40%; In July, SK Hynix's Korean stock market saw a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, and SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the supercycle has not been broken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed hawkish signals heat up: weak employment cannot suppress inflation anxiety
At the July FOMC meeting, three unanimous votes were cast against the same direction for the first time since 2016—three regional Fed chairs advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike. Voting member Kashkari even said that raising rates three times within the year is "not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? In July, ADP added only 44,000 new jobs, the weakest since January. However, wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM Services PMI price sub-index surged to 70.3, the highest in four months—"weak employment, strong prices" forms a classic stagflation signal. The market's probability of a rate hike in September remains at 54.9%.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, potentially releasing a market value of about $100 billion. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
As a result, the stock price did not fall but instead rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. After Wednesday's 13.6% earnings report, the plunge had already released the pressure to lift the lock; New selling orders were effectively absorbed by bottom-fishing funds and short covering. The market played out the classic scenario of "when all the negative news is gone, good news." However, the alarm was not lifted—another 319 million shares may be unlocked on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected to be released in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have moved ahead of fundamentals; The Fed is torn between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" by rallying against the trend on the unlocked day. When earnings beating expectations becomes standard, every point of guidance deviation is magnified infinitely—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all the "not perfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? 今晚战斗之夜，决战非农！
近期盘面持续窄幅震荡，资金集体选择观望，所有人都在等待这份就业数据给出方向。
当下市场博弈的核心，依旧是美联储后续政策路径。非农不仅仅是一份就业报表，直接左右9月加息预期，同时叠加地缘局势悬而未决，多重变量积压，今晚大概率打破当前温水震荡格局。
⚠️风险提示：内容仅为行情观点交流，不构成任何交易建议！$BTC $ETH $SKHYNIX Quick Market Reading
Bitcoin current price is $64,261.50, down 1.04% in 24 hours. The range closed at 1.29 percentage points, showing considerable volatility.
The 24-hour high was $65,000.00, the low was $64,159.60, with a turnover of $193.55M USD, indicating ample long-short turnover.
Across the entire market, 49 stocks rose and 56 fell, accounting for 46.7 percentage points of gains—the sentiment is immediately clear.
Meme/Payments sector is focusing on $DOGE, with relatively low volume. Let's first see if smart money is making any moves.
The RWA sector is focusing on $HUMA, with tightening volatility, waiting for the right direction before making moves.
The top three gainers were $ACE +101.27%, $BICO +29.85%, and $ALLO+16.05%, with smart money already voting for it.
The top three leading decliners were $CC -14.37%, $ONDO-6.62%, and $FET-5.15%, with profit-taking positions directly flipping the table and fleeing.
Opinion: The number of rising and falling stocks sets the tone, leading the rise and falling sets the direction. Don't go against the smart money.
Data comes from OKX's public spot market and is for informational reference only, not investment advice.
Brother X finished talking, you think about it yourself.HBM狂欢背后最大隐忧：产能怪兽三星一旦全开，存储周期或将改写
全网现在铺天盖地统一叙事：全球HBM严重紧缺，AI算力爆发，到处都缺高带宽内存。
各路机构、研报、媒体全部在渲染供不应求的故事，所有人默认紧缺会长期持续。
但有一个被大多数人刻意忽略的现实：三星是存储行业不折不扣的产能怪兽。
半导体存储是强周期行业，周期规律很难被短期需求热度改写，这和当下火热的报价没有关系。
只要三星下定决心扩产叠加新技术迭代，HBM的产能释放速度，会远超市场所有人的预期。
市场现在把全部目光放在海力士、美光的供给约束上，却低估三星的制造底盘。一旦产能闸门拉开，当下的紧缺叙事会被直接打破。
三星推出zHBM，性能达到海力士HBM5的4‑8倍，存储密度为HBM5十倍，能效提升3倍，热阻下降超50%。
新一代zHBM技术落地+大规模扩产，是悬在HBM赛道头顶的一把双刃剑。
一边是AI算力带来的真实需求爆发；另一边是巨头产能释放、技术迭代带来的周期反噬。
看盘面也能看到分歧：
三星股价小幅抗跌，反观海力士已经连续大幅走弱，资金已经开始提前博弈产能逻辑。
很多人只盯着“AI缺HBM”这个故事做多，却忘记存储行业历史一遍遍重演：
供不应求推高价格 → 巨头疯狂扩产 → 供给过剩，周期反转。
资本永远提前交易预期，等市场所有人都看到产能出来的时候，行情早已走完。
不要盲目迷信满屏看多的行业研报。
需求固然真实，但工业产能的力量，足以抹平当下的供需缺口。
AI的故事可以继续讲，但存储的周期属性，不会轻易消失。美元近期反弹，创下近两周以来较强单日表现，市场重新押注美元？
这波上涨，本质是市场重新调整美联储降息预期。美债收益率回升，加上避险资金重新流入美元
此前市场押注快速降息
降息预期升温 → 美债收益率下降 → 美元承压
现在变成：
降息推迟 → 利率维持更久 → 美债收益率回升 → 美元反弹
不过我觉得，这更像短线修复，还不能定义为美元新一轮强周期
接下来重点看两个方向：
第一，就业数据
如果美国经济继续保持韧性，降息预期下降，美元可能继续走强
第二，通胀走势
如果通胀持续回落，美联储打开降息空间，美元反弹可能受限
我认为，美元短期还有支撑，但长期仍受到降息周期和财政压力影响
对市场来说，美元走强通常会压制BTC和高估值科技股，但如果后续降息逻辑重新升温，资金可能再次回流风险资产
现在市场真正交易的，不只是美元，而是美联储下一步到底怎么走
非投资建议 DYOR 本来盼海峡恢复通航，谈判卡壳，油价又要躁动。
之前市场都在盼伊朗和阿曼把通航谈妥，霍尔木兹海峡恢复顺畅运油，油价也跟着提前跌了一波，赌局势缓和。
结果谈判卡住，协议推进遇到阻碍。
一方面新航道方案实操难度很大，单条航道扛不住海量油轮通行；
另一方面各方立场差距巨大，伊朗想要管控海峡通行权限，美方坚持海峡要自由通航，谈不拢。
霍尔木兹海峡是全球石油大动脉，大量原油从这里运出去。$CL
协议谈不成，意味着海峡航运没法彻底恢复正常，随时还有摩擦、袭击的风险，市场避险情绪立马上来，油价直接冲高，补上地缘风险溢价。
但也要看清，现在只是谈判受阻，不等于直接全面封死海峡。
如果后续冲突没有升级，油价冲高之后容易回落；
一旦局势再恶化，油价会再度往上冲。接下来油价会被谈判消息、地区冲突牵着走，波动会明显变大。$BTC $ETH
#伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻，油价风险再升温
#黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 今晚8点半非农，这数据可能是近期最炸的一个。
先说现状：BTC在64000附近窄幅磨了一整周，波动率快跌没了，30天成交量比均值少了将近24%。市场不是在等方向，是在等一个借口——今晚的非农就是这个借口。
这次华尔街分歧大得离谱：共识预期新增8万人，但先锋集团只给了1.8万，美银给了8万，预期差超4倍。上个月非农才5.7万，这周ADP更惨，私营部门才4.4万，连7.5万的预期都没摸到。失业率预期维持4.2%，但劳动参与率已经跌到61.5%，是2021年以来最低。
对币圈来说，今晚就两种剧本：
数据爆冷（低于5万），加息预期降温，美元承压，BTC可能借流动性预期反弹一把，67000是第一道坎。但别急着追——沃什已经废了前瞻指引，一份数据定不了方向。
数据超预期（10万以上），鹰派重新占上风，9月加息概率从54%往上蹿，风险资产继续挨锤，BTC下探63000甚至60000都有可能。
我的看法：64000这个位置多空都不舒服，非农前别加仓，等数据出来消化完再动。超跌反弹和趋势反转是两回事，一根K线改变不了什么。📊 $DOGE Contract Liquidation Express (August 7)
According to liquidation data, short-cycle bears are being crushed wildly, but long-term bulls have collapsed instantly...
The liquidation amount in the past hour was approximately $3,898.34
Long positions liquidated at about $3,898.34
Short liquidation is about $0
The liquidation amount in the past 4 hours was about $17,600
Long positions were liquidated at about $17,400
Short positions were liquidated at about $270.26
The liquidation amount in the past 12 hours was approximately $182,000
Long positions were liquidated about $150,100
Short positions were liquidated by about $31,900
The liquidation amount in the past 24 hours was approximately $2.4462 million
The long position liquidation was about $1.8786 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $567,700
From $DOGE liquidation data, 1-hour and 4-hour long liquidations crushed the shorts, with long liquidations thousands and 64 times the shorts, respectively. The long sell-off trend unfolded with nuclear explosion-level intensity in the short cycle; The 12-hour bullish advantage narrowed sharply, dropping to 4.7 times, with short squeezing significantly strengthened; 24-hour long liquidations soared to $1.87 million, 3.3 times the bears' price. Dog Zhuang completed a pattern of short-term long selling, medium-term short squeeze undercurrent, and long-term renewed long sell-offs on DOGE, with cumulative liquidations surpassing $2.44 million. Everyone should control their positions and don't be forced to buy back.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 7
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "fully loaded expectations, flaws must be eliminated"—"exceeding expectations" is just the passing line, and any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage stocks plunged after earnings reports: the more explosive the earnings, the harder the drops fell
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" financial report: Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital reported $3.747 billion in revenue during the same period. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 557%.
However, SanDisk's stock plunged nearly 8% after hours. The culprit is the guidance—next quarter's median revenue is $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market's pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "good performance" to "whether growth is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market stable? UBS forecasts total storage industry revenue to reach $992 billion in 2026 and nearly double to $1.76 trillion by 2027, with HBM as the core driving force. But short-term corrections are equally real—as of the end of July, leading AI storage companies had an average drawdown of about 40%; In July, SK Hynix's Korean stock market saw a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, and SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the supercycle has not been broken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed hawkish signals heat up: weak employment cannot suppress inflation anxiety
At the July FOMC meeting, three unanimous votes were cast against the same direction for the first time since 2016—three regional Fed chairs advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike. Voting member Kashkari even said that raising rates three times within the year is "not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? In July, ADP added only 44,000 new jobs, the weakest since January. However, wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM Services PMI price sub-index surged to 70.3, the highest in four months—"weak employment, strong prices" forms a classic stagflation signal. The market's probability of a rate hike in September remains at 54.9%.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, potentially releasing a market value of about $100 billion. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
As a result, the stock price did not fall but instead rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. After Wednesday's 13.6% earnings report, the plunge had already released the pressure to lift the lock; New selling orders were effectively absorbed by bottom-fishing funds and short covering. The market played out the classic scenario of "when all the negative news is gone, good news." However, the alarm was not lifted—another 319 million shares may be unlocked on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected to be released in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have moved ahead of fundamentals; The Fed is torn between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" by rallying against the trend on the unlocked day. When earnings beating expectations becomes standard, every point of guidance deviation is magnified infinitely—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all the "not perfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? Gold and silver are already pricing in rate cuts, while BTC is still bottoming out at $64K. This isn't "when oil prices fall, BTC should fall," but rather "the reason for the drop (the ceasefire) happens to benefit BTC, but BTC's own structure hasn't kept up."
If a ceasefire is formally reached (currently in negotiations), oil prices stabilize between $70-80→ CPI will fall for 2-3 consecutive months→ rate cuts will shift from "expected" to "realistic→ If BTC is still at $64K, it will be a gold pit.
Risk reversal: Ceasefire talks break down → oil prices pull back to $90+ in a day, → inflation panic + escalating war → gold, silver, and BTC all hit together.
In short: the oil crash from $109 to $69 was a ceasefire squeezing the premium, not a recession—the evidence is that gold and silver are rising, DXY is falling. This is a tailwind for BTC in the medium term; the short-term divergence is BTC's own problem, not a macro issue.Everyone’s talking about the unlock.
I’m watching what happens after the headlines.
If $SPCX posts strong earnings and the unlock doesn’t trigger an immediate dump, don’t assume the risk is gone. Locked holders don’t have to sell on day one. Day two works. Day three works too.
One “I think so” was enough to trap plenty of buyers above 120. With 910M shares now in play, all it takes is one bearish catalyst for fear to snowball.
I said I’d start exiting around 105. We’re still sitting near 114, so I’m not rushing anything. Most holders aren’t diamond hands. They’re just waiting for a reason to hit the sell button.
$SPCX
#DailyOrbit 我觉得SOL底部就在60附近。
先别急着喷，我知道现在73，我也知道周线双顶量度跌幅画到36。但你真觉得SOL能跌到36？月线布林下轨还画在42呢，你去翻翻历史，比特币从6.9万崩到1.5万那波，月线布林下轨画的什么位置？远低于实际低点。极端目标位这东西就是吓唬人的，真到了你也不敢买。
60这个位置有什么特别的？2025年那波从14冲到240的大牛市，中间最扎实的筹码区就在60-80这一段。4月插针到56，两周拉回75。6月底跌到58，现在又回到73。60这个位置被空头砸了好几次，砸不穿，底下有人在接。
链上数据确实难看，网络活跃度下降，死叉刚出，DEX交易量7月跌了9%，恐慌指数27，散户地址从1180万降到1130万。市场一片悲观，但你要知道，底部从来都是悲观里磨出来的。
有两个事我觉得挺重要。一个是Solana社区的治理提案，8月18号投票截止，要把每日销毁量从650枚干到7500-9000枚，翻十几倍，还要把通胀降速翻倍。如果过了，供应端直接变天。另一个是大摩的MSOL在纽交所挂了，费率0.14%，还带质押收益，首日没量但门开了。彭博分析师给的通过概率70%。
大摩什么体量？管着2万亿美金。他们对比特币ETF那套已经跑通了，现在轮到SOL。
短期就在72-75磨，磨完了往上还是往下，看75能不能过。过了看77-80，过不去就回来踩70.7，但我觉得65以下很难见到了。
60-64这个区间，到了就准备好子弹。真跌到60以下，那就是市场出大事了，但你八成也不敢买了。
买在无人问津时，这话听着土，但每次都灵#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ 这一波存储大跌，不是公司不赚钱，而是大家期待拉得太高了。 闪迪、海力士财报利润都赚得盆满钵满，但下一季度的业绩指引没达到市场最疯狂的想象，前期赚了大钱的资金直接落袋为安，把整个存储板块带崩 。$SNDK $SKHYNIX 简单说：股价提前把未来的好行情已经涨完，财报落地，一旦没有超预期惊喜，就会出现“买预期，卖事实”的杀估值行情 。 但要分清两件事：增速变慢 ≠ 需求消失。 AI服务器对HBM高端内存的刚需是实实在在的，大厂也签了不少长期供货订单，高端芯片依旧紧缺。 麻烦点在于，各大厂商都在拼命扩产，市场心里犯嘀咕，怕过两年产能上来，又重演产能过剩的老剧本。 所以AI内存大行情不会直接彻底死掉，但不会再像之前那样闭着眼普涨。$MU 以后会分化，高端HBM产品吃香，普通存储芯片压力会更大，股价震荡会变多，不再是一路直线往上冲。 简单来说， 财报后下跌，杀的是过高的期望值，不是AI存储的基本面。 高端HBM真实需求还在，但高速暴涨阶段大概率告一段落，后面行情震荡分化，不能再无脑看多，要看后续订单和扩产进度来验证景气度。 #闪SpaceX shares climbed roughly 6% on Thursday, bouncing off an all-time low of $108.27 set the day before, as more than 900 million previously restricted shares became eligible for trading — more than doubling the stock's available float in a single day. It's a notable show of resilience: the lockup expiration handed early investors and employees the option to sell over 911 million shares, a block larger than the entire IPO offering, and the stock absorbed it without another leg down. The rebound📊 $BTC Contract Liquidation Express (August 7)
According to liquidation data, the bulls and bears repeatedly squeeze and squeeze, while the dog farmer buys back and sells...
The liquidation amount in the past hour was about $408,400
Long positions were liquidated at about $398,500
Short liquidation at about $9,849.15
The liquidation amount in the past 4 hours was approximately $806,300
Long positions were liquidated by about $505,400
Short positions were liquidated by about $300,900
In the past 12 hours, liquidations amounted to approximately $4.6436 million
Long positions were liquidated at about $4.0458 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $597,800
The liquidation amount in the past 24 hours was approximately $17.2656 million
Long positions were liquidated by about $8.3144 million
Short positions were liquidated by about $8.9512 million
From $BTC liquidation data, 1-hour long liquidations crushed shorts, with bulls being 40 times stronger, and the short selling was fierce right from the start; The 4-hour bulls' advantage narrowed sharply, dropping to 1.68 times, with short selling significantly strengthened; 12-hour bulls overtook again, with a ratio of about 6.7 times, with long squeezes running through the short-medium cycle; the 24-hour direction completely reversed, with short liquidations crushing bulls, who were 1.08 times bulls. Dog Maker completed a fierce turnaround from selling long to short on BTC—short-cycle long sellers were targeted and destroyed, long-cycle short sellers were wiped out in one go, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $17.26 million. Everyone should control their positions and avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Indicator | August 7
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "fully loaded expectations, flaws must be eliminated"—"exceeding expectations" is just the passing line, and any signal of slowing growth will be amplified.
💾 Storage stocks plunged after earnings reports: the more explosive the earnings, the harder the drops fell
SanDisk delivered a "legendary" financial report: Q4 revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Western Digital reported $3.747 billion in revenue during the same period. SK Hynix's Q2 revenue was 79.32 trillion KRW, a year-on-year surge of 557%.
However, SanDisk's stock plunged nearly 8% after hours. The culprit is the guidance—next quarter's median revenue is $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The market's pricing logic for storage stocks has shifted from "good performance" to "whether growth is fast enough."
Is the AI memory bull market stable? UBS forecasts total storage industry revenue to reach $992 billion in 2026 and nearly double to $1.76 trillion by 2027, with HBM as the core driving force. But short-term corrections are equally real—as of the end of July, leading AI storage companies had an average drawdown of about 40%; In July, SK Hynix's Korean stock market saw a maximum drawdown of 54%, Samsung Electronics 42%, and SanDisk plunged 47% in a single month. The long-term logic of the supercycle has not been broken, but valuations have already outpaced fundamentals, and any flaws will be magnified.
🏛️ Fed hawkish signals heat up: weak employment cannot suppress inflation anxiety
At the July FOMC meeting, three unanimous votes were cast against the same direction for the first time since 2016—three regional Fed chairs advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike. Voting member Kashkari even said that raising rates three times within the year is "not impossible."
Can weak employment suppress inflation? In July, ADP added only 44,000 new jobs, the weakest since January. However, wage growth remained high at 4.4%, and the ISM Services PMI price sub-index surged to 70.3, the highest in four months—"weak employment, strong prices" forms a classic stagflation signal. The market's probability of a rate hike in September remains at 54.9%.
🚀 SpaceX rebounds after unlocking restrictions: a classic scenario where all negative news is released
On August 6, SpaceX unlocked its first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares, potentially releasing a market value of about $100 billion. Previously, the market generally expected a wave of sell-offs.
As a result, the stock price did not fall but instead rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. After Wednesday's 13.6% earnings report, the plunge had already released the pressure to lift the lock; New selling orders were effectively absorbed by bottom-fishing funds and short covering. The market played out the classic scenario of "when all the negative news is gone, good news." However, the alarm was not lifted—another 319 million shares may be unlocked on August 20, and about 700 million more are expected to be released in September.
💎 Summary
SanDisk traded 372% growth for a plunge, proving that storage stock valuations have moved ahead of fundamentals; The Fed is torn between weak employment and high inflation, with stagflation signals emerging; SpaceX played out the classic scenario of "all negative news being exhausted" by rallying against the trend on the unlocked day. When earnings beating expectations becomes standard, every point of guidance deviation is magnified infinitely—the old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is forming, and it punishes all the "not perfect" answers. #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
#联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment outpace inflation?
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? Everyone’s talking about the unlock.
I’m watching what happens after the headlines.
If $SPCX posts strong earnings and the unlock doesn’t trigger an immediate dump, don’t assume the risk is gone. Locked holders don’t have to sell on day one. Day two works. Day three works too.
One “I think so” was enough to trap plenty of buyers above 120. With 910M shares now in play, all it takes is one bearish catalyst for fear to snowball.
I said I’d start exiting around 105. We’re still sitting near 114, so I’m not rushing anything. Most holders aren’t diamond hands. They’re just waiting for a reason to hit the sell button.
$SPCX This time, I want to say that the long-term bull market foundation for AI storage has not collapsed. This decline is a valuation crash after expectations are fully inflated, not a peak of the industry cycle.
Everyone needs their own judgment. The most profitable financial report in history can't support the stock price being doubled prematurely, which is perfectly normal. Short-term sentiment release isn't over yet, so don't rush to catch the dip and catch the knife; But HBM's structural gap remains, the industry's profit bottom and growth logic haven't been broken, and once valuations are digested, the leaders will return to an upward channel.
So let's first understand one question: with explosive performance, why does the stock price actually drop?
The core issue is that expectations are too high, and the performance doesn't keep up with the imagination. SK Hynix's quarterly profit increased 5.5 times and operating margin reached 76%, Samsung's quarterly operating profit rose 18 times year-on-year—all historic-level results, but market expectations were even more outrageous—analysts unanimously forecast SK Hynix for 84 trillion yuan in revenue and 64 trillion yuan in profit, a difference of about 5%, directly labeling it "below expectations."
To put it bluntly, general-purpose storage may experience cyclical fluctuations, but the shortage of high-end HBM is a hard gap, not speculation. The industry is making real money now, not relying on storytelling to support valuations, which is fundamentally different from the 2021 cycle.
Therefore, the decline in financial reports is a valuation rebound, not the end of a bull market. The structural gap in AI storage remains. In the short term, it will fluctuate and bottom out, but the long-term logic remains unchanged. Don't rush to bottom-fish; wait for sentiment to stabilize before entering the market $SNDK $SAMSUNG $SKHYNIX
#存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable? $SUI The launch of DeepBook Predict essentially integrates market prediction gameplay with DeFi options infrastructure, leveraging Sui's speed advantage to make "short-term and long-term BTC price rise and fall prediction" possible. This direction itself holds great potential
Its core advantages are mainly reflected in the following points:
⚡ Lightning-fast experience and professional pricing
Sui's 400-millisecond transaction confirmation speed is crucial for ultra-short-term predictions like 1 minute. Combined with the institutional-grade options pricing model introduced in collaboration with Block Scholes, it is more mechanically specialized than other similar on-chain products.
🧩 Native "Composability"
This is its most unique feature. On Sui, your forecast positions are not "dead" and can be combined with DeepBook's spot and leverage features. This means you can directly leverage this "prediction" or hedge it.
🌊 It comes with inherent liquidity, breaking the cold start challenge
The market fears most when the market opens with no one to take over. DeepBook comes with an internal market maker, providing initial liquidity as soon as the new market launches, greatly improving user experience.
⚠️ Overall, this is a key step for the Sui ecosystem to expand the DeFi derivatives landscape, but it leans more toward mid-term positive effects on both technical and ecological aspects. Short-term token price fluctuations are more influenced by mainnet launch timing and overall market sentiment. It is recommended to pay attention to the mainnet launch progress and actual trading volume.The biggest uncertainty about SpaceX's future is not the unlocking itself, but the combination of three factors—the pace of the unban, AI capital expenditure, and Starship's progress.
The unlocking will be in multiple batches. The first batch of 912 million shares on August 6 will follow, followed by multiple phases and large-scale shareholder unlocks. By the end of the year, tradable shares may increase from 639 million shares to 5.33 billion shares. The supply shock hasn't disappeared, only delayed. Short sellers have more ammunition—unlocking has added new borrowable shares to the securities lending market. Bears won't retreat just because the market rebounds 6% in one day; they are betting on continued dumping in subsequent unlocking batches.
AI capital expenditure is an even bigger issue. Q2 capital expenditure was 18.3 billion, revenue was 7.8 billion, burning money at more than twice the rate of earning. The company said Q3 and Q4 were similar to Q2. Wall Street was calculating — whether SpaceX could maintain EBITDA growth while continuing to burn money. As long as the pace of burning money outpaced the rate of profit, valuation pressure would not disappear.
Starlink business is currently the only source of profit. In Q2, Starlink revenue was 4.29 billion, with operating profit at 1.66 billion. AI and rockets are burning cash, with most of Starlink's earnings going to support AI and Starship. If Starlink's user growth and ARPU continue to exceed expectations, SpaceX's cash flow pressure will be eased. If Starlink's growth slows, SpaceX's cash burn will become the market's biggest concern.
#财报观察员: After the lock-up lifts, prices rebounded—what do you think about SpaceX's future? 山寨币只做多不做空，做多最多一倍，做空乱余生，做空容易赚可以天天赚，遇到一个妖币基本废废……
举个例子吧，$HEL如果在0.1买1000刀归零就亏1000刀，0.1做多1000刀0.5那就是赚5000刀，做多盈利无上限，做空盈利有限。
山寨币热度来了总会出现几个妖币，在币圈想屌丝逆袭其实不是不可能，毕竟在币圈做空的人远多于任意市场，大家都知道山寨币最终会归零，理论上只要资金足够大做空就能做多永赚，可你我都是屌丝何来的无限子弹呢。
大部分山寨币里面都潜伏的有庄家，你只需要观察持仓量就OK，小市值山寨币合约的壳子大概也就500万刀，这也就是很多山寨币只要没下架市值几乎都会买500万刀左右。
那么500万刀的市值，没热度没流动性为什么持仓有两三百万刀，双向持仓和市值持平，你说这样的山寨会不会有庄呢。
对于这种山寨币，你只需要埋伏，给他1000刀，你的成本比庄低，你的优势可以快进快出，庄家走不掉，船大难调头，如果持续跌庄家比你亏的多，所以不是路不平。
总之想要逆袭前期就是做多而做空短期确实可以挣钱遇到妖币那就洗洗睡，做空乱余生啊。#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
⚠️个人观点交流，不构成任何投资建议
美联储主席凯文·沃什放话：通胀要是继续走高，9月就会考虑加息。
ADP就业数据已经变差，但就因为主席这番偏鹰的发言，市场直接把9月加息的预期拉满。
💡我的核心观点：主席一句话能搅乱短期盘面，但我不会听讲话就去开单。依旧反弹高空，老老实实等通胀、就业实锤数据出来再说。
沃什随口一席话就能把盘面搅得天翻地覆，但这只是带条件的口头说法，不等于已经确定要加息。
只有通胀再度超预期，9月加息才会真正拿出来聊。
美联储两头都要顾：通胀涨，就想加息压制；可要是就业崩得快，又不敢随便加息。
$BTC 很容易被消息砸一下拉一下，但中期怎么走，还是看美债利率和真实宏观数据，不是看官员怎么说。
实操上，看到这种鹰派新闻别头脑一热直接重仓空。消息只当吃瓜参考，数据出来才是动手的信号。
我自己优先看CPI/PCE，通胀是我最看重的指标；非农就用来看看就业扛不扛得住。继续拿反弹高空的思路，一旦通胀数据不及预期，该认错就果断跑。
现在宏观来回反复，很容易被一条新闻带歪，做交易守住自己原本计划最重要。 非农数据到底有没有用？如果数据偏弱，9月加息概率可能跌破50%，大饼可能迎来喘息窗口。
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
如果数据偏强，美元走强、加息预期升温，风险资产可能再次承压。但安永说即便非农数据出来，美联储年底前大概率维持利率不变。
理由是“劳动力市场依旧平稳，不太可能改变美联储的政策重心”。只有通胀范围扩大且持续走高，才可能迫使美联储改变立场。
问题在于——就业降温会不会最终传导到通胀上？如果就业持续走弱但通胀粘在3%以上，美联储就会陷入两难：加息会加剧就业恶化，不加息通胀压不住。这就是“滞胀”风险。沃什现在的策略是——通胀不下来就不松手。就业数据可以弱，但通胀不下来就什么都不会变。非农数据影响的是短期情绪，不是美联储的中期路径。 弱就业和强通胀之间的矛盾，正在成为美联储最大的难题。
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
就业数据在降温，但工资还在涨，服务价格下不来。
结构性通胀还在，只是从需求端转移到了工资端。沃什的鹰派立场很明确——物价稳定是第一目标，就业是第二位的。
市场预期7月非农新增8.3万人。如果数据符合预期，美联储将获得更多空间继续聚焦通胀。如果数据大幅低于预期，市场可能会短暂交易“就业走弱→美联储宽松”的逻辑。但安永的判断是：只要通胀不下来，就业数据再弱也不会改变美联储的政策重心。
大饼现价64,400附近，在非农数据出来之前盘面很安静。方向没出来之前仓位别太重。如果数据偏弱，大饼可能弹到65,000甚至66,000。如果数据偏强，63,000-64,000大概率要被测试。数据出来之后再做判断，不差这一晚上。 @币圈超短王马大帅 美国7月非农（NFP）全解析｜币圈行情参考（2026.08.07 20:30公布）#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
一、基础核心信息
1. 公布时间：北京时间8月7日 20:30（今晚）
2. 发布机构：美国劳工统计局
3. 三大核心指标（缺一不可，薪资＞新增就业）
①非农新增就业（核心表头数据）
②失业率
③平均时薪（通胀核心，直接影响美联储政策倾向）
4. 对标基准数值
◦ 前值（6月）：5.7万人
◦ 市场一致预期：8万人
◦ 失业率预期：4.3%（前值4.2%）
◦ 时薪同比预期小幅上行
二、涨跌底层逻辑（币圈通用）
非农就业数据强弱→美联储降息节奏预期→美元指数、美债收益率波动→BTC、ETH等加密货币定价
1. 非农大幅超预期（＞10万+薪资走高）=利空币圈
就业数据火爆，通胀回落受阻，市场下调9月降息概率，美元走强，资金出逃风险资产，BTC、ETH快速下探，合约容易出现插针连环爆仓。
2. 非农低于预期（＜7万+薪资走弱）=利多币圈
就业走弱映射经济承压，市场押注美联储加速降息，流动性宽松预期升温，主流币短线快速拉升。
3. 数据贴合预期（7.5万–9万）=宽幅震荡
多空分歧明显，行情来回插针震荡，单边趋势较弱。
关键误区
不要只看新增就业人数：整体就业平稳，但薪资大幅上涨，依旧属于利空行情，薪资通胀是美联储重点管控目标。同时上月就业数据修正值，会直接扭转盘面短期走势。
三、三种情景盘面预判（现价ETH约1900USDT，BTC同步联动）
情景1：数据强劲（新增≥10万，利空下行）
• BTC第一支撑：62200，跌破下看60800强支撑
• ETH短线支撑：1870、1840
情景2：数据疲软（新增≤7万，利多上行）
• BTC压力：65300、66100
• ETH短线压力：1930、1960
情景3：符合预期（7.8–8.8万，区间震荡）
BTC震荡区间：62500–65000
ETH震荡区间：1875–1935
四、前置前瞻参考
前期ADP小非农、周度初请失业金数据小幅偏强，盘面在非农前维持窄幅整理，一旦实际数据和预期偏差较大，行情变盘波动会明显放大。 📊 $RE合约爆仓速递（8月7日）
根据爆仓数据，短周期多头被按在地上疯狂摩擦，但中长周期空头直接血崩了。。。
过去1小时爆仓金额约2455.89美元
多单爆仓约2455.89美元
空单爆仓约0美元
过去4小时爆仓金额约5625.23美元
多单爆仓约4598.13美元
空单爆仓约1027.10美元
过去12小时爆仓金额约7.43万美元
多单爆仓约2.36万美元
空单爆仓约5.07万美元
过去24小时爆仓金额约9.46万美元
多单爆仓约3.94万美元
空单爆仓约5.52万美元
从$RE爆仓数据看，1小时多头爆仓碾压空头，空头为零，杀多闪击开局即猛烈；4小时多头优势持续但收窄，比例约4.5倍，杀多全面爆发；12小时方向彻底逆转，空头爆仓碾压多头，空头是多头的2.15倍，逼空全面爆发；24小时空头优势持续，比例约1.4倍，狗庄在RE上完成了从杀多到逼空的凶狠转身——短周期做多的被定向爆破，中长周期做空的被一锅端，累计爆仓突破9.4万美元。大家控制好仓位，别被来回收割。
🔥 市场风向标 | 8月7日
今日三条热点，指向同一主题：市场已进入"预期拉满，瑕疵必杀"的阶段——"超预期"只是及格线，任何增速放缓的信号都会被放大。
💾 存储股财报后下挫：业绩越炸，跌得越狠
闪迪交出"封神级"财报：Q4营收89.65亿美元，同比暴增372%；西部数据同期营收37.47亿美元。SK海力士二季度营收79.32万亿韩元，同比大增557%。
然而，闪迪盘后一度重挫近8%。元凶是指引——下季营收中值105.5亿美元，低于市场预期的108.2亿美元。市场对存储股的定价逻辑，已从"业绩好不好"升级为"增速够不够快"。
AI内存牛市还稳吗？瑞银预测2026年存储行业总收入将达9920亿美元，2027年几乎翻番至1.76万亿美元，HBM是核心驱动力。但短期回调同样真实——截至7月底，AI存储龙头平均回撤约40%；7月SK海力士韩股最大回撤54%，三星电子42%，闪迪单月暴跌47%。超级周期的长期逻辑未破，但估值已跑在基本面之前，任何瑕疵都会被放大。
🏛️ 联储鹰派信号升温：弱就业压不住通胀焦虑
7月FOMC会议出现2016年以来首次三张方向一致的反对票——三位地区联储主席主张加息25个基点。票委卡什卡利甚至表示年内加息三次"并非不可能"。
弱就业能压住通胀吗？7月ADP新增就业仅4.4万人，创1月以来最弱。但薪资增速维持4.4%高位，ISM服务业PMI价格分项飙至70.3，为四个月最高——"就业弱、价格强"形成经典滞胀信号。市场对9月加息的概率仍维持在54.9%。
🚀 SpaceX解禁后反涨：利空出尽的经典剧本
8月6日，SpaceX首批9.115亿股限售股解禁，潜在释放市值约1000亿美元。此前市场普遍预期将触发抛售潮。
结果股价不跌反涨6.14%，收报114.92美元。周三13.6%的财报后暴跌已提前释放了解禁压力；新增卖盘被抄底资金和空头回补有效吸收。市场演绎了"利空出尽即利好"的经典剧本。不过警报未解除——8月20日另有3.19亿股可能解禁，9月预计再释出约7亿股。
💎 总结
闪迪用372%的增长换来暴跌，证明存储股的估值已跑到基本面之前；美联储在弱就业与高通胀之间左右为难，滞胀信号正在浮现；SpaceX用解禁日的逆势反涨，演绎了"利空出尽"的经典剧本。当业绩超预期已成标配，指引的每一分偏差都会被无限放大——旧逻辑正在崩塌，新定价权正在形成，而它惩罚的是所有"不够完美"的答案。#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？
#财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ On August 6th, the earnings reports from SanDisk and Western Digital caused a collapse in the entire storage sector. #存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
SanDisk's revenue was $8.965 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 51%, with non-GAAP earnings per share of $39.25.
Western Digital reported revenue of $3.747 billion, up 44% year-on-year, with earnings per share of $3.56.
Both data sets would be legendary in any normal year. Then SanDisk fell 6.8%, Western Digital dropped 13%, and Micron was hit hard.
The problem lies in the guidance. SanDisk's Q1 revenue guidance median was 10.55 billion, below market expectations. Quarter-on-quarter growth dropped from 51% to around 17%. The market wants "continued acceleration," while SanDisk is asking for "slowing growth." This is the essence of the "earnings sell-off"—not poor performance, but market expectations have been pushed to the ceiling.
Wu Hao, fund manager at Founder Fubon Fund, put it bluntly: "The negative factors for the two companies are not in their performance, but in the gap between expectations." Goldman Sachs also said that when market expectations are excessively inflated, even bland guidance can be interpreted as a negative signal. 存储板块现在分歧极大。#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
花旗说供应链库存低、产能不能满足需求，维持乐观预测。
华夏基金张景松说本轮存储周期跟以前不一样——AI需求持续性极强，价格有望高位企稳。
摩根士丹利说内存合约价Q4见顶，但价格不会随即大跌
仁桥私募夏俊杰说存储行业很可能已经见顶，极度暴利阶段必然短暂。
多空双方都不否认存储巨头业绩强劲，分歧在于这种强劲的持续性。Pave Finance首席投资官说：“盈利爆炸式增长不可持续，更大的问题是利润率能否维持”。
闪迪的NBM长期协议模式是最大的变数。截至Q4签署了8份长期协议，覆盖8家客户，最低合同收入939亿美元。闪迪正在从周期股变成有长期收入可见性的基础设施公司。如果NBM模式跑通，存储周期的逻辑会被改写。但长约在上行周期是护城河，在下行周期可能是枷锁。 亚太市场8月6号同步崩了——铠侠、SK海力士都跌超10%。#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
全球存储板块同频共振，问题已经推到了台前：AI驱动的存储景气上行，究竟是“在路上”还是“已近终点”？
本轮存储周期的核心变量是HBM。HBM产能基本售罄至2026年，英伟达、微软、亚马逊、Meta持续扩建数据中心。HBM4正在进入批量发货阶段，存储供需紧张的局面短期不会改变。但市场已经提前把2026-2027年的预期打进了股价里。闪迪年内涨幅超460%，西部数据约200%。股价已经预支了未来一两年的增长。闪迪的财报证明AI存储需求真实存在，但需求存在和股价继续涨是两回事。存储板块的这轮回调不是基本面出了问题，是估值和预期的重新校准。AI内存牛市还没结束，但“闭眼买存储股就赚钱”的阶段已经过去了。比特币BTC 实时走势
日线：价格站 64000 上方、在 50 日线（≈63275）之上、200 日线（≈61480）之上，但被压在布林中轨（≈64350）下沿；RSI14≈48–50 中性，MACD 零轴下金叉红柱极短，超跌修复延续、未反转。62200–64500 大箱体未破。
4H：冲 64300–64500 回落，布林收口（上轨≈64500/中轨≈63500），MACD 金叉柱体缩短；1H 在 EMA20-50（63900–64100）上方反复，多头三试 64300 无功而返，回到 64180 高位整理。
驱动：美伊缓和+油价跌+通胀预期降，纳指带动 BTC 从 62250 反弹；现货 ETF 8/4 净回流 1.7 亿美金（IBIT +1.114 亿）终结三连撤，但价涨仓平（持仓 24h 微降），是空平+ETF 回补而非新增杠杆多头，持续性存疑；恐惧贪婪 27–31 仍在恐惧区。
相对 ETH：ETH 1866 横住，ETH/BTC 仍 0.0291 低位，BTC 主导力不变。
技术位（短线，非建议）
压力：64300–64500（4H 上轨+前三日压制带，放量站稳才谈试 65000）→ 65000–65300（心理关+日线前高区）→ 66200（更大周期重压）
多空分水岭：63500（4H 中轨+日内强弱线，也是 63275 的 50 日线防守前的最后一道）
支撑：63275–63000（50 日线+整数关）→ 62500（前低密集区）→ 62200（破则日线转弱看 61000）
节奏判断（非建议）
守住 63500 + 放量破 64300 → 试 64500–65000，日线修复延续；
64180 反复站不稳、跌回 63500 下 → 回踩 63275，再破看 62500；
今晚 20:15 美国 ADP + 22:00 ISM 非制造业 是本周首个重定价窗口，64000 整数关纯情绪位，数据前 64300/63500 两边止损易被插针扫。@币圈超短王马大帅 美国7月非农（NFP）全解析｜币圈行情参考（2026.08.07 20:30公布）#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
一、基础核心信息
1. 公布时间：北京时间8月7日 20:30（今晚）
2. 发布机构：美国劳工统计局
3. 三大核心指标（缺一不可，薪资＞新增就业）
①非农新增就业（核心表头数据）
②失业率
③平均时薪（通胀核心，直接影响美联储政策倾向）
4. 对标基准数值
◦ 前值（6月）：5.7万人
◦ 市场一致预期：8万人
◦ 失业率预期：4.3%（前值4.2%）
◦ 时薪同比预期小幅上行
二、涨跌底层逻辑（币圈通用）
非农就业数据强弱→美联储降息节奏预期→美元指数、美债收益率波动→BTC、ETH等加密货币定价
1. 非农大幅超预期（＞10万+薪资走高）=利空币圈
就业数据火爆，通胀回落受阻，市场下调9月降息概率，美元走强，资金出逃风险资产，BTC、ETH快速下探，合约容易出现插针连环爆仓。
2. 非农低于预期（＜7万+薪资走弱）=利多币圈
就业走弱映射经济承压，市场押注美联储加速降息，流动性宽松预期升温，主流币短线快速拉升。
3. 数据贴合预期（7.5万–9万）=宽幅震荡
多空分歧明显，行情来回插针震荡，单边趋势较弱。
关键误区
不要只看新增就业人数：整体就业平稳，但薪资大幅上涨，依旧属于利空行情，薪资通胀是美联储重点管控目标。同时上月就业数据修正值，会直接扭转盘面短期走势。
三、三种情景盘面预判（现价ETH约1900USDT，BTC同步联动）
情景1：数据强劲（新增≥10万，利空下行）
• BTC第一支撑：62200，跌破下看60800强支撑
• ETH短线支撑：1870、1840
情景2：数据疲软（新增≤7万，利多上行）
• BTC压力：65300、66100
• ETH短线压力：1930、1960
情景3：符合预期（7.8–8.8万，区间震荡）
BTC震荡区间：62500–65000
ETH震荡区间：1875–1935
四、前置前瞻参考
前期ADP小非农、周度初请失业金数据小幅偏强，盘面在非农前维持窄幅整理，一旦实际数据和预期偏差较大，行情变盘波动会明显放大。 #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？
别被SPCX的财报利好骗了。营收虽增92%，但183.7亿的巨额资本开支（尤其是AI基建）吓坏了市场，典型的“利好出尽是利空”。
真正的雷是解禁。首批9.115亿股已流通，但利空远未结束。内部筹码成本多在1-5美元，现价114仍是几十倍暴利。千万别信“利空出尽”，拿到解禁资格的筹码，第一天不卖，第二天、第三天随时可以砸。那句模糊的“I think so”已让无数人套在120以上，教训犹在。
现在的114不是底，是解禁日空头回补的博弈中继。只要有一个风吹草动（如宏观转弱或下批解禁预告），这9亿股里的观望盘就会瞬间变成抢跑盘，引发雪球式恐慌。105没走成不算错，114不急也对，但逻辑要清：不是“利好护体”，而是“抛压没排完”。紧盯108-110支撑带，破了就奔前低。8月下旬、9月还有梯次解禁，在那之前，所有反弹都是内部人给的逃生窗，而非反转信号。$SPCX $XSPCX Terafab不是凭空来的。#特斯拉SpaceX投建168亿美元AI芯片厂
今年4月特斯拉已经在得州启动了研发晶圆厂ATCF，作为Terafab的前置阶段。
8月初ATCF的施工航拍已经曝光，进展很快。两座工厂相距约100英里。
Terafab的选址在格赖姆斯县，SpaceX在得州的重要运营基地就在附近。
马斯克在X上说：“特斯拉和SpaceX未来需要的芯片数量，将远远超过当前以及未来全球生产能力能够提供的水平”。这句话翻译过来就是——外面的供应商不够用，只能自己造。
但168亿只是开始。SpaceX上市文件显示Terafab目前仍处于总体规划框架，未来多个阶段累计投资可能达到1190亿。财报刚因为资本开支太大被砸了13.6%，解禁日股价反而反弹了6%。市场可以接受168亿的一期投资，但1190亿的远期规划会让市场重新计算SpaceX的烧钱速度。如果AI芯片厂持续需要巨额资本注入，SpaceX的自由现金流可能会长期为负。这事儿短期是叙事催化剂，中长期是资产负债表压力。Terafab的另一个信号是——马斯克正在把SpaceX和特斯拉的供应链深度整合。
#特斯拉SpaceX投建168亿美元AI芯片厂
两家公司的芯片需求合并到一个工厂，从逻辑芯片到DRAM存储再到封装测试，全在一个屋檐下。
年产能1太瓦，按马斯克的说法是全球现有产能的50倍。这个目标意味着Terafab如果满产，可能会冲击现有的芯片供应格局。
但对特斯拉和SpaceX来说，真正的战略价值在于——不用再跟别人抢产能了。台积电和三星的产能排期已经排到好几年后，自己建厂虽然贵，但能保证供应。168亿换来自主芯片供应，这笔账马斯克显然觉得划算。
消息公布后，SPCX股价在解禁日反弹了6.14%。市场给的定价是：烧钱可以，只要你证明烧出了长期竞争力。Terafab就是这个证明的一部分。但资本市场不会只看叙事，还要看现金流。168亿花出去之后，SpaceX和特斯拉的资产负债表会发生什么变化，是接下来几个月市场会反复计算的。#存储股财报后下挫, is the AI memory bull market still stable?
I'm the mid-term intelligence bro. I saw the drop after the recent financial reports of storage stocks—Micron, SK Hynix, and SanDisk posted explosive earnings but were hit by "earnings blows"—not because the AI memory bull market ended, but because "valuations were pulled back after expectations were too high."
The medium-term logic remains unbroken: the HBM supply-demand gap remains, cloud manufacturers' capital expenditures will remain high year-on-year in 2026, DRAM contract prices are expected to rise more than 10% in Q3, 70% of advanced original capacity is locked in HBM and enterprise-grade, and traditional DRAM is being squeezed out. What is falling is the luxury expectation of "further upward revisions in gross margin," not the underlying demand for "AI needs storage." Morgan Stanley said that the price increase slope slowed in Q4 2026 and the profit revision peaked, which is a feature of the mid-to-late stage of the cycle, not a crash.
My medium-term outlook: the AI memory supercycle isn't over yet, but the blind-eyed, broad-surge phase has passed. Coming up is divergence—if there really are leaders with HBM capacity or long-term contract lock-ups, pullbacks are buying opportunities; Module manufacturers purely speculating on DRAM spot elasticity, beware of Q4 guidance turning hostile. Watch three signals: cloud vendor Capex is downgrading, HBM long-term contract loosening, DRAM contract prices have fallen for two consecutive quarters, and so far none have appeared.
$SNDK
$MU #Uniswap进军发射台, can UNI open up a new narrative?
Robinhood Chain has only been online for a little over a month, and Uniswap has already matched $12.8 billion in trading volume on this chain, making it the second largest market after Ethereum mainnet.
The launch of Pools.trade means Uniswap is no longer just a post-issuance trading venue, but will personally participate in the entire issuance process.
For UNI holders, the most critical factor is the fee switch. The V4 fee switch burns about $90 million of UNI annualized. The larger the trading volume on Pools.trade, the more UNI is burned, and the stronger the expectation of supply deflation. But the question is—how much of the trading volume on Robinhood Chain is sustainable? The launch pad's business is essentially "new token issuance→ short-term hype → replacing the next one." If the issuance slows down, Pools.trade's trading volume will also drop.
The real competition Uniswap faces is—can it establish a launchpad network effect on the Robinhood Chain that surpasses Flap and Pons? On its first day of launch, it launched 6,000 tokens, which is indeed more than the combined volume of three competitors. But the core competitiveness of the launchpad lies in whether it can continuously attract high-quality projects. If it's just a place for launching a patch, its long-term value is limited.$BTC $ETH $SNDK Both SanDisk and Western Digital exceeded expectations in their earnings, but both plunged—one dropped nearly 7 points, the other plunged 13 points. SanDisk's revenue guidance was weak, gross margin showed signs of peaking, Goldman Sachs directly lowered its target price, and Western Digital did the same. The same goes for Western Digital. If there's a slight flaw, capital pours in. The fundamental reason for this round of decline is that market confidence in the AI hardware sector is weakening. Beating expectations is standard; only if it exceeds expectations does it pass. If guidance loosens a bit, it's a sign of respect for the first drop. This isn't a healthy adjustment It's the systematic withdrawal of funds. Storage is one of the core links in AI hardware. The sector remains under pressure, indicating that the overall AI infrastructure narrative is cooling down. Funds are shifting from highly elastic assets toward more certain directions. When risk appetite tightens, all highly elastic assets won't have an easy time. If storage continues to fall, after funds withdraw from AI hardware, they will most likely flow into US Treasuries or cash. The chain reaction of selling off highly elastic assets is not over yet. Is the AI memory bull market stable? Long-term demand has indeed not stopped. HBM is still expanding, and NBM contracts are still being signed But the market doesn't look at the long term; it focuses on marginal changes. Gross margins have peaked, and guidance is weak. These signals are already enough to make funds rush in first. The earnings season isn't over yet; there are still a few more companies to release. It's not too late to wait until the impact of this round of earnings and guidance has been absorbed before watching. Reaching out now is easy to catch halfway up the mountain. #Storagestocks plunged after earnings, is the AI memory bull market still stable? #联储鹰派信号升温, can weak employment suppress inflation? #财报观察员: Rebound after lifting restrictionsPools.trade的零手续费模式很激进。
#Uniswap进军发射台，UNI能否打开新叙事？
竞品收1%-5%的发射费，Uniswap直接打到零。
这不是在做慈善，是在抢市场份额。
Pools.trade不直接在发射环节收费，而是通过V4费用开关捕获价值。项目代币上线后，在Uniswap上交易的手续费部分会被销毁。这意味着Uniswap不需要靠发射费赚钱，靠的是后续的DEX交易量。
这招对竞品来说是降维打击。Flap和Pons依赖发射费收入，Uniswap可以用零手续费抢走他们的项目方和用户，然后靠后续交易量变现。如果这套模式跑通了，UNI的价值捕获逻辑会被重写——不只是DEX交易量，还有发射台的流量入口价值。UNI现价4.14美元，EMA50支撑4.01，MACD金叉0.01维持看涨，RSI 57.24仍有上行空间。市场正在观察Pools.trade能不能把UNI从“治理代币”变成“有真实收入支撑的资产”。 @币圈超短王马大帅 美国7月非农（NFP）全解析｜币圈行情参考（2026.08.07 20:30公布）#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？
一、基础核心信息
1. 公布时间：北京时间8月7日 20:30（今晚）
2. 发布机构：美国劳工统计局
3. 三大核心指标（缺一不可，薪资＞新增就业）
①非农新增就业（核心表头数据）
②失业率
③平均时薪（通胀核心，直接影响美联储政策倾向）
4. 对标基准数值
◦ 前值（6月）：5.7万人
◦ 市场一致预期：8万人
◦ 失业率预期：4.3%（前值4.2%）
◦ 时薪同比预期小幅上行
二、涨跌底层逻辑（币圈通用）
非农就业数据强弱→美联储降息节奏预期→美元指数、美债收益率波动→BTC、ETH等加密货币定价
1. 非农大幅超预期（＞10万+薪资走高）=利空币圈
就业数据火爆，通胀回落受阻，市场下调9月降息概率，美元走强，资金出逃风险资产，BTC、ETH快速下探，合约容易出现插针连环爆仓。
2. 非农低于预期（＜7万+薪资走弱）=利多币圈
就业走弱映射经济承压，市场押注美联储加速降息，流动性宽松预期升温，主流币短线快速拉升。
3. 数据贴合预期（7.5万–9万）=宽幅震荡
多空分歧明显，行情来回插针震荡，单边趋势较弱。
关键误区
不要只看新增就业人数：整体就业平稳，但薪资大幅上涨，依旧属于利空行情，薪资通胀是美联储重点管控目标。同时上月就业数据修正值，会直接扭转盘面短期走势。
三、三种情景盘面预判（现价ETH约1900USDT，BTC同步联动）
情景1：数据强劲（新增≥10万，利空下行）
• BTC第一支撑：62200，跌破下看60800强支撑
• ETH短线支撑：1870、1840
情景2：数据疲软（新增≤7万，利多上行）
• BTC压力：65300、66100
• ETH短线压力：1930、1960
情景3：符合预期（7.8–8.8万，区间震荡）
BTC震荡区间：62500–65000
ETH震荡区间：1875–1935
四、前置前瞻参考
前期ADP小非农、周度初请失业金数据小幅偏强，盘面在非农前维持窄幅整理，一旦实际数据和预期偏差较大，行情变盘波动会明显放大。