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A crypto treasury company compounds only while its stock trades above the coins it holds. Slip below and it reverses: no premium to issue equity against, so the choices narrow to selling the stack, getting acquired, or levering up to fake a yield. ETHZilla sold $40M of ETH for buybacks at a 30% discount; Metaplanet's mNAV sits at 0.99. My read: it's the structural cost of one reflexive asset carrying a whole equity story.
NFA — DYOR.
#CryptoTreasuryDurability Last night, the market directly staged a "short squeeze". BTC surged from around $77,000, reaching a high close to $82,000, with a single-day increase exceeding 6% at one point. Meanwhile, mainstream coins like $ETH and $XRP also strengthened simultaneously, and the overall crypto market risk appetite clearly warmed up. The core catalyst for this rise was still the Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller recently sent a clearly dovish signal: if the inflation data for August continues to improve, he tends to support pausing rate hikes in September; but if inflation heats up again, he will still consider raising rates. The market immediately reacted — the expectation for a September rate hike quickly dropped from about 63% the day before to around 50%, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar weakened in sync, and BTC followed through to break above $80,000. But here’s the question: Is the $80,000 breakthrough the start of a new rally, or just a short-term sentiment peak? I am now focusing on three key areas👇 📌 First resistance: $82,000–$83,000 This is a dense area of previous highs; if volume increases and it holds above this level, there will be a chance to further open up upside space. 📌 First support: around $80,000 Whether BTC can turn $80,000 from resistance into support after the breakout is very critical. If it can hold near $80,000 on a pullback, the bullish structure remains intact; if it falls back below, be cautious of seeking support in the $77,000–$78,000 range. 📌 More importantly, macro data The U.S. August CPI will be released on September 11, which is the real "test".From the perspective of position structure, the account's current total leverage ratio is as high as 6.13x, and all three assets (PIPPIN, TRUMP, BONK) are in short (sell) positions. This one-sided positioning indicates that traders are extremely bearish on the current market sentiment or are concentrating their attacks on specific hot tokens (such as Meme coins). Regarding trading details, the strategy clearly shows a tendency of "heavy positions to seek small profits":
PIPPINUSDT: Using 3x leverage, holding 600 units, with a return rate of 12.05%, but the actual profit is only 0.48 USDT.
TRUMPUSDT: Using 5x leverage, return rate 13.70%, profit 0.56 USDT.
BONKUSDT: Using 5x leverage, holding a huge amount (12.8 million units), return rate 9.96%, profit 0.81 USDT.
Core risk analysis: Asymmetric profit and loss: the total profit of the three positions is less than 2 USDT, but each position uses 4-8 USDT margin and bears about 5x leverage risk for this small profit. If the market moves against the position by 15%-20%, the principal will face a huge drawdown risk.
Meme coin volatility risk: The selected assets are all highly volatile Meme or politically themed coins (TRUMP, BONK). These assets are prone to "spike" movements, and 5x leverage can easily trigger forced liquidation under extreme volatility. Although the current maintenance margin ratio seems very high (1000%+), this is calculated based on the current small profit state; if prices rebound, the safety buffer will quickly disappear. Sorted it out a bit: Hawks think Iran is a mess, oil prices are soaring, so interest rate hikes are needed to curb inflation. Doves believe that the sharp rise in European and American bond yields approaching new highs makes rate hikes a further burden on bonds, plus pressure from Trump, so they probably won't dare to raise rates.
Hawks worry about "inflation getting out of control," while doves worry that "the bond market will crash first" $CL $BTC $ETH #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 #原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动 The boot hasn't landed yet, and the knife hanging over our heads has been replaced by the CPI data.
He didn't turn hawkish; the treasury yields fell, providing short-term support for Bitcoin, allowing it to catch a breather tonight.
The decision power is handed over to the CPI: he clearly said whether to raise rates in September depends entirely on next week's CPI, which means BTC will be driven by CPI expectations over the next week, with the fuse for a sharp rise or fall set for next week.
Currently, the market's upside and downside are locked: he said if inflation improves, there will be a pause, which is short-term bullish, but also clearly stated that if CPI rebounds, rate hikes will resume, which is clearly bearish.
Bitcoin will most likely remain in a range-bound consolidation, making it difficult to see a strong one-sided trend. $SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level Ansem praises Bonk Guy as the strongest trader in public: repeatedly hitting major BONK, WIF, and Fartcoin rallies On September 4th, renowned trader Ansem highly praised trader Bonk Guy (Unipcs) during a live broadcast, calling him a top-tier trader who has long publicly shared his profits, losses, and trading logic. He reportedly earned over $10 million trading BONK, bought WIF when its market cap was under $10 million, and successfully caught major rallies of Meme coins like Fartcoin. Ansem stated that he doesn't know anyone stronger than him in public settings. On September 4th, well-known crypto trader Ansem gave very high praise to trader Bonk Guy (Unipcs) during a live stream, calling him a top trader and saying he doesn't know anyone stronger than him in public. Ansem listed several of Bonk Guy's public achievements: in the previous cycle, Bonk Guy openly shared his profit and loss records, something almost no one else did at the time. After publicly explaining his trading logic, he successfully caught multiple major Meme coin rallies, including earning over $10 million trading BONK; buying into dogwifhat (WIF) at a very early stage when its market cap was still under $10 million; and hitting the later explosive Fartcoin rally. Ansem emphasized that Bonk Guy has long publicly shared his trading ideas and has repeatedly successfully captured major Meme token rallies, with too many hits to count. In the crypto trading community, real-time public profit and loss sharing andIntroduction Although it may hit new lows again, it has already entered the cycle-level allocation range. The market, project, and coin information, opinions, and judgments mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Written by 0xWeilan @ eMerge IS At the end of August, $BTC closed at $78,564, recording the largest monthly gain since the bear market, at 25.04%. Looking solely at the market, this is enough to make one reassess the current phase: BTC spot ETF average daily net inflows rose from $11.65 million in July to $106.13 million, the entire market's average daily capital flow shifted from -$74.78 million to $199.19 million, and stablecoin average daily net flows turned from -$93.48 million to +$41.14 million; the price also climbed back above the short-term holder cost line of $70,936 and the real market price of $76,403. The question is not whether there is capital inflow, but why this round of funds is coming, what its nature is, and how long the entry conditions can be maintained. Has the roughly half-year bear market clearing been sufficient to complete the chip restructuring of the previous cycle, making August the starting point of a new cycle; or is this an overly intense bear market rebound temporarily amplified by event-driven funds and short squeeze when selling pressure is momentarily exhausted? By the end of August, the halving cycle bear market has already entered its late stage in terms of time. The eMerge IS system still positions August as the transition phase from the decline period to the bottoming period; EMC Labs believes it is time to consider whether the "old cycle is ending and the new cycle is beginning to open up".$SNDK previously experienced a violent market surge driven by concentrated funds rapidly pushing it up in the short term, but from its historical peak, it directly entered a cliff-like crash with zero support, with an overall retracement exceeding 99%. The market was continuously suppressed by relentless early-stage chip distribution selling pressure, unable to hold up for more than a few hours before being smashed through.
Peers in the same sector like $BICO, $BEAT, $ALLO, $KAITO, and $APR all precisely captured the active buying brought by the loose liquidity released in this market cycle. The rhythm was clear, but $SNDK didn’t benefit at all from the sector rotation dividends, completely detached from the entire sector’s upward momentum. Instead, it remains trapped in its own independent downtrend channel, steadily declining along the short-term moving averages. Currently, the market has not undergone multiple rounds of sufficient turnover, and the risk of blindly entering to bet on a reversal has already reached an extremely high level $CORE 【CORE dropped again, is the problem really solved?】
CORE barely managed to rebound to around 0.0236, but it couldn't hold. The price keeps fluctuating, and the market simply isn't buying it.
The hard fork was indeed executed, permanently burning over 150 million CORE tokens, and malicious validators can no longer profit. But none of the core questions have been answered: exactly how much CORE was overissued? Have any extra tokens already entered the market? How exactly did the vulnerability occur?
The technical review report is still not released, and the official statement just says "user asset security" and that's it. Exchange restrictions haven't been fully lifted either.
You say this is all staged? Can't say for sure, but the project's "half-eat, half-hide" attitude really makes it hard to trust. A short-term deflation narrative rebound is fine, but long-term trust? Sorry, without the report, the risk remains. Do you trust it or do you trust me, Qin Shi Huang?Brothers, Bitcoin is making a comeback again. The latest BTC price is around 80800-81200, up over 5% in 24 hours, once approaching 82000 during the session. It pulled back directly from yesterday's low near 77000 to 81000, rising more than 4000 points in one day. ETH simultaneously broke above 2500. Over the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidations exceeded $400 million, with short positions accounting for over 80%. The fear and greed index rose from 63 to 65, with sentiment moving from "greed" toward "extreme greed." What's different this time compared to the breakout on August 25? Last time it was a direct surge—rushing up in one go without sufficient turnover, resulting in failure to hold, and a drop back to 77000 within three days. This time, the bottom was confirmed before the rally—triple bottom confirmation at 77000, with lows continuously rising, and only after stabilizing above 80000 did the chasing sentiment activate. A breakout that has been tested with pullbacks, turnover, and support confirmation is more reliable than the first surge. Four things are pushing simultaneously. First, rate hike expectations dropped sharply from 63% to 50%. Fed Governor Waller sent dovish signals—if August inflation data continues to improve, he will support keeping rates unchanged in September. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September dropped directly from 63.2% to 50.4%. Initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, clearly signaling a cooling labor market. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell back to around 4.76%, and the dollar weakened. The macro headwinds are fading. Second, ETFs are continuously accumulating. On September 3, the spot Bitcoin ETF had a single-day net inflow of $358 million, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $269 million$BTC first retreated then followed the US stock market recovery, currently around 81000. The key level between bulls and bears is 80000; only a stable hold can talk about continuation, while losing it would return to the 77000 rebound starting point. #比特币再破80000美元
$ETH around 2500, with 2600 above confirming rebound strength, and 2450 below as the defense line; losing it means weakness.
$SOL around 104, first watching the 100 whole number support on the pullback; if broken, its elasticity is greater than $BTC and $ETH, making it easier to be swept on non-farm payroll night.
The three major mainstreams rebound simultaneously but have not shown independent trends; tonight will follow interest rate pricing. About $400 million liquidations occurred across the network in the past 24 hours, mostly shorts, indicating rebound squeeze; fees remain moderate, and leverage has not been cleared. Funds are mostly cautious.
US stocks rebounded for the second consecutive day, $QQQ +1.40%, $SPY +1.06%. AI leads the gains, $NVDA closed at 228.45 and announced about $13 billion acquisition of Hugging Face; $META +3.01%, $MSFT +2.68%, $AAPL closed slightly higher. Waller said if inflation continues to decline, he tends to hold steady in September; the decline in US Treasury yields is the main reason for the rebound. #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
Tonight's non-farm payroll is the key to setting the tone for September's path; overall, it is still a policy expectation-driven recovery, so positions remain cautious. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 A few days ago, we were still discussing Strategy hoarding BTC, Robinhood's on-chain business heating up, and Circle's stablecoin expansion. But once risk appetite returned, funds rushed directly into high-volatility assets. $MSTR surged about 17% in a single day, $HOOD nearly 16%, $CRCL also rose about 16%, and $BMNR likewise recorded double-digit gains. In contrast, the US stock market only saw moderate gains, while crypto-related stocks clearly exhibited higher Beta. The logic behind this is actually simple: BTC rises → crypto market sentiment recovers → funds chase high-volatility stocks. Especially companies like MSTR, which are highly tied to BTC assets, act like a leverage layer on top of BTC's market when conditions are good; while HOOD and CRCL are more driven by trading activity, stablecoin, and digital asset business expectations. What's more noteworthy is that after Waller signaled a dovish stance, market concerns about continued rate hikes in September have eased, with BTC once surging near $81,000, directly boosting risk appetite across the crypto sector. But today there is a real big test: the US August non-farm payrolls. The market currently expects about 58,000 new jobs; if the data is significantly weak, it may further strengthen easing expectations; conversely, if employment exceeds expectations, crypto high-Beta assets might first rise then fall. 📌 The core issue now is not "who rises the most," but who can continue after the non-farm payrolls On September 4th, the US August nonfarm payroll data will be the biggest catalyst for the market today.
What the market is most conflicted about right now is not the nonfarm data itself, but whether it will continue to change the Fed's rate hike expectations for September 16th.
Currently, the market's judgment on a September rate hike has quickly dropped from over 60% the day before to nearly an even split. Waller's statement yesterday also led the market to start betting again on "maintaining the current interest rate."
So today, we can simply consider three scenarios:
First, nonfarm data is significantly weaker than expected.
Employment continues to cool down, the probability of a rate hike may further decline, and BTC has a chance to retest $80,000.
Second, data basically meets expectations.
The market may fluctuate briefly but will ultimately return to rate expectations and the September 11 CPI.
Third, nonfarm data is significantly stronger than expected.
Rate hike expectations rise again, the dollar and US Treasury yields come under pressure, risk assets suffer, and BTC may instead retest lower support levels.
Interestingly, the options market has already made defensive moves in advance, with obvious downside protection layouts in the $68,000–$75,000 range.
So what’s really worth watching today is not whether the nonfarm data is bullish or bearish.
It’s how the funds reprice rates and BTC after the data is released.
$BTC Next is the Solana section
The current price is about 100, stuck in the middle zone between bulls and bears, not yet entering the shortable area, nor has it returned to the long zone I want.
SOL still follows Bitcoin's big swings up and down, so don't treat it as independently strong yet. I suggest waiting for a retest near 95 to gradually buy longs, with a stop loss at 90; consider shorts only when it approaches 120 to 130. Only after breaking through 130 should you seriously reconsider the positioning; for now, don't prematurely change your framework.
The US stock spot Solana ETF funds started to shake in the past two days. On September 1, there was still about $10.2 million net inflow, but the next day it turned into about $6.13 million net outflow, mainly from Bitwise BSOL outflows. Institutions haven't fully exited, but the rhythm is no longer as stable as in late August. In the short term, it looks more like rotation and turnover following the broader market. The chips are still fluctuating, so don't rush to claim that the earlier inflows have already formed an independent trend.Shorted $ETH near 2510, focus on the non-farm payroll tonight!
Just now, $ETH gave me a comfortable short position near 2510, and the position is already entered.
Why dare to short at this level?
$ETH has rebounded continuously to above 2500, but this level clearly has resistance. If it continues to surge in the short term, first observe whether the 2520-2550 area can truly hold
The real big variable tonight is not ETH itself, but the US non-farm payroll.
#DailyOrbit The moment Jensen Huang dropped this acquisition pawn, the entire open file on the chessboard quietly changed hands. Hugging Face is not a chip, not computing power, but the chessboard behind all AI players' opening repertoire—the $12.93 billion purchase is the opening library of the entire ecosystem.
$11.9 billion given to shareholders is the pawn already in the mouth; $1 billion reserved for employees is the soft ribbon hanging on the king's wing. Outsiders look at valuation, insiders look at the hidden intention behind this move. The loudest move is hidden in the promise—"no mandatory use of Nvidia computing." This is equivalent to telling opponents: choose your opening. But grandmasters all understand, the real trap is not refusing to vary, but making the opponent believe they have the freedom to choose. When Fischer abandoned the queen in Reykjavik, it was not the queen itself but the psychological space conceded to the opponent that mattered.
Hugging Face is that central square. Models, datasets, and AI applications all revolve around this square. Controlling the center square but not immediately delivering checkmate is Nvidia's smartest sequence. Because once the pawn directly attacks the king's wing, regulators will intervene like referees calling a stop for "threefold repetition." So it yields the queen's wing, temporarily guards its composure, continues to open interfaces, and does not block lines. But all developers moving pieces along this open file must pay an invisible toll: learning paths, model formats, deployment habits, and the archival rights of every future game record. First occupy the standards, then consider monetization—this is the order after long consideration, not a momentary skirmish.
Regulatory eyes fall from two sides. One is scrutiny of monopoly over the computing layer, the other is concern over the concentration of model distribution entry points. The queen's wing rooks have already connected the semi-open file, forcing the opponent's castle defense to shrink. Legislators on both sides of the ocean are like raising the chess clock to count down, but the deal is not set to close until the first half of 2027. The time gap creates a subtle "transition": enough for all parties to complete piece exchanges, and enough for laws to leave a new horizontal line on the chessboard. All rules are modified before the endgame—this is a game history repeatedly tells.
Look again at the sideline $xUSAR. It is like a white-square bishop, not on the main battlefield but closely watching this diagonal. The market interprets the concessions and reversals in the "open promise," and it then leans forward to sprint; when the antitrust cloud drifts by, it quickly retreats back to its camp. Large orders on the token market are arranged like waiting moves common in endgames—who moves first exposes intentions; who controls the line can harvest the opponent's hesitation in the pendulum swing. It has not promoted yet, but every move it makes prices the final position.
True masters do not ask "Will buying the open center destroy openness?" They only ask: who adjudicates the boundaries of this open file, who records the takebacks, who decides when to exchange pieces. When all opponents think they can still freely move along this open file of public documents, the pawns they advance in the midgame have long been firmly pinned down by that bishop lurking under the diagonal. As for when it will promote—that is the matter of the endgame. #nvidiahuggingfacedealNon-farm data ignited the market, with BTC surging strongly from 76151 to 80640, a nearly 6% increase in a single day, reclaiming above 80,000. The hourly MACD shows a bullish crossover diverging upwards, with significantly increased volume and strong bullish momentum. However, the 81000-81500 range is a previous high resistance zone and a key resistance level in this rally. If volume breaks through, new highs are expected; if pressure causes a pullback, a double top pattern may form. Follow whoever wins between bulls and bears. Watch these two key levels: Bullish key: 80000-80200, if the pullback does not break below, bulls continue targeting 81500-82000. Bearish key: 81000-81500, if the rebound faces resistance, bears take over targeting 80000-79500. Bull vs. bear logic Reasons to be bullish: ① Non-farm surprise strengthens rate cut expectations, confirming a macro liquidity turning point, leading to a broad risk asset rebound. ② Hourly volume breakout above multiple resistances at 78000, 79000, and 80000, MACD bullish crossover upwards, strong bullish trend. ③ Spot ETFs have seen continuous net inflows for several days, with institutional funds steadily replenishing. Reasons to be bearish: ① 81000-81500 is a previous high resistance zone; three attempts in August ended in pullbacks, with heavy trapped positions. ② Nearly 6% surge in one day, short-term overbought, RSI approaching overbought zone, increasing risk of chasing highs. ③ After the non-farm positive is priced in, lack of new catalysts to push further upward. What will I do? Buy on pullback: enter long if 80000-80200 holds, stop loss at 79500, target 81500-82000. Rebound to sell:🔥$ETH On-Chain Talk Show: Staking queue is 36 days long, mainnet burns 38 ETH, some L2s earn 3.75 million daily while others shut down
Newcomers often get fooled by "busy ecosystem" when looking at ETH. Let's laugh first at three sets of data:
Staking is like waiting in line at a popular restaurant: about 42.6 million ETH staked, accounting for 34.94% of circulating supply, 2.074 million in queue, waiting about 36 days, no exit queue; this means everyone wants to lock up for yield, but new money entering has to wait a month, so short-term circulation may not tighten immediately.
Mainnet is like an energy-saving office: sampling 20 blocks shows base fee at 0.1332 gwei, total L1 fees over 30 days about $10.4 million, annualized about $127 million; since the merge, daily burn averages 1391 ETH, now only about 38.7 ETH daily, remaining 2.8%. After Blob moved Rollup data off-chain, L1 execution demand became sparse. "Network busy" does not equal "mainnet burning money"; the deflation story depends on high-value L1 settlement.
L2 differentiation is like two company departments: Robinhood Chain daily fees $3.75 million, exceeding Solana + ETH mainnet + Base; but small network Silicon stopped deposits on September 2 and testnet, withdrawals only until December 31. Big L2s have volume, small L2s run away. When looking at the ecosystem, don't just look at total TVL.
"$ETH = staking long queues, mainnet energy-saving, big L2s making money, small L2s shutting down; true scarcity looks at L1 actual burn + big L2 retention, not just the four words 'Ethereum is busy'." Above the 80th floor, the dampers begin to emit a low-frequency whine—you all focus only on the order book, while I follow the core tube wall to find the yield point of the rebar.
80,000 is not just a simple price line. If it can stand above it again, it means the main structure has not yet reached the yield bending moment, but it repeatedly probes and hovers between 80,000 and 82,500, because this floor is the transfer floor of the entire building. With the Fed-hike expectations fading and U.S. Treasury yields dropping, it’s like a row of anchor cables on the north side of the foundation pit has been removed. There is a principle in structural codes: when soil pressure changes, all temporary supports must be recalculated. The market is now recalculating the pile cap beam called the term spread; every turn is a trace left by creep in the cracks.
The net inflow of spot ETFs in August is like concrete pump trucks continuously pouring the core tube day and night; by early September, capital inflows and outflows start to interweave, a rhythm known on construction sites as the “support replacement period.” Formwork is dismantled layer by layer, and the concrete must support the above-ground weight that is not yet complete. Any floor with inadequate curing will later show irreversible deflection. So some see the parapet at 86,000 on the blueprint—the liquid capital still insists this elevation is feasible; others choose to withdraw the pump pipe before the slab at 82,050 reaches initial set—Jiang Zhuoer’s sell was an active unload, no longer bearing the bending moment of the subsequent continuous beams.
The BTC-gold 90-day correlation curve Bitwise mentioned is not a safety lock. In architecture, this is called a rigid connection corridor: you weld the main building to a counterweight tower rich in metal reserves, which seems to stabilize the base but actually makes the two dynamic systems share vibration modes. When one side is sucked by the wind, the other side shakes along, and the curtain wall sealant ages faster than anything else in the 0.2 Hz breathing. Gold is not a cushion layer; that correlation is a beam of great stiffness, directly transmitting the macro volatility of precious metals into the load-bearing skeleton of the crypto building.
The selling pressure between 80,000 and 82,500 is an exterior wall bearing positive wind pressure, with wind load already exceeding half of the design reference period. ETF capital flow is the only energy-consuming damper, but its capacity is limited. London gold and U.S. Treasury yields continuously input low-frequency energy at the other end, and the $xMU annex building also emits a hissing friction sound along the wall corner line—its linkage direction exposes the damping ratio of the main structure: if the annex swings higher and higher, it means the main building’s joints have loosened rather than become more solid.
I zoom in on the 80,000 section, reading the least noticed node area on the architectural drawings. Welding rods and bent rebar connections differ by a hair on the drawings but diverge by miles during an earthquake. True structural safety is never written on the parapet elevation but in every encrypted stirrup hook. Raising interest rates means death, not raising interest rates also means death; this pawn is inherently toxic☠️
Think about it, with 40 trillion in US debt weighing down, raising interest rates? Interest expenses would explode, causing a fiscal collapse right before your eyes.
Not raising interest rates? The US dollar's credit continues to dilute, and inflation can't be contained.
Neither option is favorable.
So some say the cleanest solution is to start a war🔥
If they win, the debt is wiped clean; if they lose, they become slaves.
But the question is, does the US really have that determination?
I think it's doubtful.
They are now hesitant even to fight Iran, let alone make a big move to overturn the table.
After all, if a real war breaks out, the financial system collapses first, the rich flee first, who would still care about national credit?
So don't take the idea of "war solving debt" too seriously.
They don't have the guts, nor the necessity.
The most likely path is the old routine: talk tough and raise rates, but actually print money and drag it out slowly.
For us in the crypto circle, seeing through this is enough. (September 4, 2026) Bitcoin is at a critical crossroads triggered by a reversal in macro policy expectations
1. Core direction: short-term high-level oscillation and tug-of-war, upward breakout depends on macro data sentiment
Bitcoin, after experiencing a short squeeze triggered by the "Fed's dovish signals," has currently risen above the $80,000 mark (currently about $81,200). However, the short-term direction is not yet fully clear, and it is highly likely to trade sideways in the $80,000 to $82,000 range. The current daily RSI indicator has entered the overbought zone (above 73), and short-term momentum shows signs of weakening, indicating the market needs time to digest profits.
2. The "starting gun" for an upward breakout: today's non-farm payroll data
The biggest variable determining whether Bitcoin can firmly hold above $80,000 and push toward the $83,000-$84,000 range is the upcoming U.S. August non-farm payroll data.
● Bullish scenario: If the non-farm data is significantly below expectations (soft print), it will firmly consolidate the "no rate hike" expectation. Coupled with continued net inflows into spot ETFs, Bitcoin is expected to break through the $81,800 resistance level with volume and move to higher levels.
● Bearish scenario: If the non-farm data overheats, rate hike expectations may rebound, and Bitcoin will face the risk of retesting the key support level at $78,670 BTC surged back to 80,000 overnight: Is this a breakout or a pre-nonfarm rush?
$BTC
Last night, BTC suddenly rallied quickly from around $77,000, immediately reclaiming $80,000, with an intraday high close to $82,300.
Is last night's big bullish candle a true breakout, or is the market front-running ahead of the nonfarm payroll release?
First, let's look at why it rose last night
The most direct catalyst came from the Federal Reserve.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said yesterday that if upcoming inflation data continues to show easing price pressures, he is willing to support keeping rates unchanged in September.
After this statement, the market quickly lowered its bets on a September rate hike.
Previously, the market had priced in over a 63% chance of a 25 basis point hike in September.
After Waller's remarks, this probability dropped to about 50%.
At the same time:
US Treasury yields fell,
The dollar weakened,
US stocks rose,
BTC broke above $80,000 again.
The entire transmission logic is very coherent.
In other words, BTC's rise last night was not a baseless "crypto market sudden frenzy."
The market is actually re-pricing something:
The Fed may not be as hawkish as previously thought a few days ago.
This is certainly bullish for BTC.
Another part of last night's rally likely came from short sellers.
Before breaking $80,000, BTC had been stuck around $77,000–$78,000 for a while.
Many traders started shorting.
As a result, when the price suddenly broke out:
Shorts were liquidated,
Creating a classic short squeeze.
But after all these shorts were closed out,
The buying pressure disappeared.
So:
A short squeeze can create a breakout but cannot guarantee the breakout will hold.
What truly determines whether $80,000 can hold is:
After the squeeze ends, are there new buyers to continue supporting?
Because BTC has actually just gone through a very similar scenario.
At the end of August, BTC also broke $80,000.
Then the buying did not continue,
And the price quickly fell back to the $70,000 range.
And now there is an important level above:
Around $82,800.
This area is close to BTC's high in May this year and coincides with some long-term technical resistance zones.
More importantly: tonight is the nonfarm payrolls release.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August employment report today at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, which is 8:30 PM Beijing Time.
Currently, the market expects:
About 56,000 new nonfarm jobs in the US for August,
With the unemployment rate holding around 4.1%.
The market has actually already started to price this in.
After Waller's speech yesterday,
The market has partially priced in:
"The Fed may not be that hawkish."
BTC has already risen in advance.
So the real risk tonight is:
Nonfarm payrolls not cooperating.
Suppose tonight's release shows:
150,000 new jobs,
Far exceeding market expectations.
The market will immediately reconsider.
Then the macro logic that pushed BTC up last night
Could be directly reversed.
At that time: whether $80,000 is a valid breakout
Will be immediately tested.
Conversely, if tonight's nonfarm is significantly weaker than expected:
For example, only 20,000 or 30,000,
Or even negative growth again.
If BTC can still hold above $80,000,
Then I would think: the credibility of this breakout is clearly higher.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#比特币再破80000美元 The current core logic affecting the Bitcoin market can be summarized into two main dimensions: macro liquidity and market cycles. Macro liquidity: Market is fully priced in • Central bank policy tightening: Due to persistent high inflation, the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, with the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank following suit with rate hikes. Major global central banks are tightening monetary conditions, and sovereign bond issuance in many countries is under pressure. • Crowding-out effect emerges: The explosive advancement of infrastructure such as AI has prompted large enterprises to issue a significant amount of bonds, occupying a substantial portion of market liquidity. Market cycles: Support at the tail end of the bear market • The market is currently at the tail end of the bear market cycle. This cyclical characteristic provides strong downside support for coin prices and contains some upward momentum. Market trend analysis • Bitcoin (BTC): Under the interplay of constrained macro liquidity but cyclical support, it is difficult in the short term to break through historical highs explosively, nor is it easy to break below the $50,000 support level. Sideways consolidation, slight gains, or minor pullbacks are high-probability trends in the current environment. If global liquidity significantly improves in the future, it is possible to initiate a major upward wave breaking historical highs, or even a second half surge to $150,000. • Altcoins: The divergence trend will become increasingly intense: • Projects with revenue/protocol fees (such as UNI, ARB related to Robinhood): Have actual fundamental support and are prone to rotational upward trends. • Well-known public chains without revenue (such as DOT, ADA, APT): Affected by the significant lowering of chain issuance thresholds (such asWhat is driving this reversal?
1. Geopolitical panic was quickly digested, and the market realized "much ado about nothing"
2. Bitcoin ETFs saw cumulative inflows exceeding $3.1 billion in August; institutions haven't fled at all
3. Shorts were overly crowded before the non-farm payrolls, ready to collapse at any moment
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 *Englis* The loudest signal in crypto right now isn’t an alt pumping. It’s where institutions are choosing _not_ to deploy capital. In the last session, *Bitcoin ETFs saw ∼$116M in inflows*. Meanwhile *Ethereum ETFs had ∼$62M in outflows* and *XRP ETFs dropped ∼$9.4M*. That snapped multi-week inflow runs for both $ETH and $XRP. That’s not a “risk-on across the board” setup. It’s a very targeted rotation. *$BTC* is getting the institutional bid again, but that money isn’t spilling into alts yThe market was very strong before today's open, with gold, US stocks, and Bitcoin all rising broadly. It seems to be because of Waller's recent statement.
Waller said whether to support a rate hike in September will depend on the August CPI data released next Friday.
This effectively changed Waller's baseline at the Jackson Hole meeting from "hike unless the data is good enough" to "no hike unless the data is hot enough." Influenced by this speech, the CME's probability of a September rate hike dropped by ten percentage points to 50.4%.
According to the logic that gold prices rise when the rate hike probability falls and fall when it rises, the recent gold price rally is pricing in this 10% drop in the rate hike probability.
In other words, the previous 4280 price level might be the lowest point of this pullback. If tomorrow's big Nonfarm Payrolls, next week's CPI, or even the 9.16 FOMC meeting bring prices close to this level again, be ready to jump back in.
Moreover, after gold's recent rise, the yields on US Treasuries for 2, 10, and 30 years all showed significant declines. If yields rebound, today's sharp jump could still be retraced $BTC #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 $BTC market news is really conflicting right now. On one side, KOLs are hyping ZEC, saying that ETF institutions entering the market will push it up; on the other side, institutional reports are pouring cold water, saying the bear market isn't over yet and there's a chance for new lows in November.
I'm also pondering the election situation. If Trump loses, the likelihood of subsequent rate hikes will really increase. Trump has been pressuring the Fed to cut rates, wanting to improve the market for his own benefit. Once he loses, the political pressure to cut rates will lessen, and the Fed could loosen up. If inflation data is weak, rate hikes could resume, which would definitely be very negative for the crypto space.
Of course, everything ultimately depends on tonight's big non-farm payrolls. The smaller non-farm data has already weakened, and many are betting that tonight's big non-farm will be positive, meaning poor employment will continue to fuel rate cut speculation, which could easily cause the market to collectively surge. For coins like ZEC, which are purely sentiment-driven and riding the ETF story, it might even directly surge to 1000-1200.
But be cautious. Even if the data is positive, it’s easy to see a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact scenario, where the market turns and dumps after the good news is realized. ZEC itself has a weak foundation and relies entirely on narrative hype; it rises sharply but also falls mercilessly.
I don’t want to keep stressing over this coin anymore; holding it is too costly mentally. I plan to watch the market, and if it crashes further this afternoon, I’ll just take the loss and exit, then block it and stop playing with it. 🤮
There are two possible scenarios ahead:
Non-farm is positive, liquidity loosens, themes continue to ferment, and ZEC keeps skyrocketing; 💹
If the election situation changes and rate hike expectations re-emerge, the whole market will be under pressure, and ZEC will crash badly. $BTC $ZEC
All of this is just my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Elon Musk is once again intensifying the challenge for all humanity.
What he said at the G20, I think what’s truly worth paying attention to isn’t those exaggerated timelines, but the direction he’s betting on:
In the end, AI isn’t just about models, but about electricity, chips, computing power, and physical manufacturing.
Musk made several very radical predictions.
First, in the next 12–18 months, AI might replace a large amount of purely computer-based work.
Second, because robot capability isn’t a single breakthrough but a product of: AI capability × chip capability × mechatronics × dexterous hands. When all these improve exponentially together, once crossing a critical point, the robotics industry might not grow linearly but suddenly accelerate.
Third, and what I think is most easily underestimated: the real bottleneck for AI might be electricity.
Models can be copied, code can be copied, but power plants can’t be replicated overnight. AI chips, data centers, and robots are all voracious consumers of electricity. $TSLA
While others are still competing over models and talent, he has already extended the battlefield all the way to: AI → data → chips → computing power → electricity → robots → manufacturing → rockets.
The first stage is building a highway for AI.
The second stage is letting AI truly start making money on that highway.
So the real big opportunity in the future, I believe, may no longer just be "selling shovels." It’s those who hold the shovels and truly turn AI into productivity, profit, and new economic growth.Ethena project-related address suspected of clearing out after 2 years of dormancy? Assets have shrunk by 65%🥹
Address 0x891…e4041 received 14 million $ENA transferred from Ethena multisig address in July 2024, valued at 6.89 million USD at the time, with a token price of $0.4928
6 hours ago, all tokens were deposited into an exchange, leaving only 2.41 million USD, a decrease of 4.48 million USD compared to the time of receipt, and a drop of over 8.735 million USD compared to the peak value...
Wallet address 0x89105d5d86854Bfb953408aFD6eFde1bB65e4041ZEC continues to hit new highs?? BTC breaks 81,000, Waller's dovish speech triggers altcoin rally!
$ZEC 943 up 16%, leading the market for the second consecutive day, continuing to hit an 8-year high. This privacy coin rally is fundamentally driven — Ironwood upgrade fixed a supply forgery vulnerability, SEC closed the case on Zcash Foundation with no fines, plus 31% of circulating supply locked in shielded pools tightening supply, institutional accumulation combined with short covering, volume expanded to 750 million; 950 is short-term resistance, holding above it targets 1000, a pullback to 900 without breaking is still strong.
$BTC 81,545 up 5%, Fed Governor Waller's speech suppressing rate hike expectations is the core catalyst, CME September rate hike probability dropped from 70% to 50%, risk assets broadly loosened, $140 million short positions were squeezed out when breaking 81,000; 81,000 now acts as support, resistance at 83,000, as long as 80,000 holds before nonfarm payrolls, the bullish structure remains. This rally is emotional repair, not capital flight.
$XRP 1.45 up 8%, leading mainstream gains, regulatory tailwinds continue to ferment and funds rotate from BTC to altcoins, XRP has become the locomotive of this altcoin rally; 1.40 is strong support, a volume breakout above 1.50 targets 1.55, as long as the trend is intact, don't exit lightly.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升
Oil prices have surged to a six-week high again, but this time it's not just a simple case of "US-Iran conflict driving crude prices up"; the actual amount of oil that can be shipped out of the Middle East is decreasing!!
Brent $BZ briefly hit $97.29 today, and WTI reached $93.04, marking the fourth consecutive day of gains. After the US airstrike on Iran, only 6 commercial vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, down from 11 the day before, and about 13 on average over the past 10 days. Shipping pressure is clearly rising again.
What's more troublesome is that Middle East supply is already contracting. From March to July this year, Middle East crude oil exports dropped about 40% year-on-year. Japan even increased its US crude oil imports by over 400% year-on-year to fill the gap. It's not that oil is completely unavailable, but the previously cheap and convenient Middle East oil is becoming harder to transport, forcing global buyers to take longer routes and pay higher shipping costs.
Now, even if OPEC+ wants to increase production, whether they can safely deliver the oil is another issue. The Sunday meeting is expected to maintain the current production policy for now, with the market focus shifting from "how much to produce" to "whether it can be shipped out."
So, I am now mainly watching the Strait of Hormuz and the $100 price level for oil. If shipping conditions continue to worsen, energy stocks like XOM and $CVX can still benefit from the oil price rally; but for $QQQ, it's tough—the higher the oil price, the harder it is to ease inflation and interest rate pressures.
#沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 Today, the global risk assets tell only one story: the Fed's rate hike expectations are cooling down. Cross-market comparison (9/4): US stocks: Nasdaq +1.40% (26,584.06) | S&P +1.06% (7,747.71) | Dow +1.18% Crypto-linked stocks: MSTR +17.56% (disclosed buying $600 million BTC again) | Coinbase +10.14% | Robinhood +16.57% Commodities / Forex: Spot gold breaks $4,500/oz, dollar index weakens Crypto: $BTC breaks 82,000 (about +25% in August, best monthly performance since November 2024) | ETH +4.49% closing at 2,499.60 (see attached 1H chart) One main storyline throughout: Waller "Inflation cooling means maintaining rates" → CME September rate hike probability drops from 70% to about 50% → US Treasury yields fall → funds collectively go risk-on. Crypto's position in this chain is the "high beta version" of US stocks: Nasdaq up 1.4%, crypto stocks up 10–17%, $BTC up 5–6%, $ETH up 4.5%. The greater the elasticity, the louder the fall—remember this attribute. Three key time points ahead: Tonight 20:30 (Beijing time): August Nonfarm Payrolls — the "verdict" on rate hike expectations $DELL
and
$AVGO
Looking at these two earnings reports together, I think the signal is already very clear:
The next phase of AI hardware will no longer be just GPUs.
The most striking thing about Dell is:
AI server revenue $16.4 billion, +100%
Quarterly AI server orders $60.9 billion
Backlog directly reaches $95 billion
This shows that enterprises and cloud providers are still frantically expanding AI servers.
And AVGO is even more direct:
AI semiconductor revenue $16.7 billion, +221%
Future AI revenue targets are projected as:
FY27 about $115 billion
FY28 about $230 billion
Putting these two earnings reports together actually explains the entire industry chain.
More servers
→ More GPUs/XPUs
→ Greater demand for HBM/DRAM
→ Higher demand for network switching
→ More 800G/1.6T optical modules
→ Increasing data, so SSD/NAND will also expand
→ Finally, more power and liquid cooling are needed
So now when I look at AI hardware, I no longer just focus on
$NVDA
.
The most directly benefiting group:
SK Hynix, $MU — HBM/DRAM
$ANET — AI networking
$LITE, $COHR — Optical communications
$SNDK — Enterprise SSD/NAND
$VRT, $ETN — Power supply and liquid cooling Predict.fun 上线 SHEIN（希音）日内股价涨跌预测市场 9月4日，预测市场平台 Predict.fun 宣布上线 SHEIN（希音）涨跌预测市场，用户可围绕 SHEIN 每日股价涨跌方向进行预测交易，市场概率及相关数据随交易实时变化。 预测市场是近年来加密行业增长较快的赛道之一，其核心机制是让用户围绕某个未来事件的结果进行交易，市场价格所隐含的概率即为全体参与者对该事件发生可能性的实时共识。此次 Predict.fun 上线的 SHEIN 日内涨跌市场，将预测标的从常见的选举、体育赛事、加密资产价格等场景，进一步延伸至传统股票市场，用户可以对 SHEIN 每个交易日的股价涨跌方向进行押注交易。 SHEIN（希音）是全球知名的跨境快时尚电商平台，长期以来市场对其上市进展和估值保持高度关注。围绕该标的推出的日内涨跌预测市场，为短线观点交易者提供了一种新的表达工具，其隐含概率也可作为观察市场对 SHEIN 短期走势情绪的一个参考维度。 这一产品上线反映出预测市场平台正在加速向传统金融资产渗透的趋势。在美股大选、利率决议等宏观事件类市场之后，个股级别的日内预测市场开始出现，说明加Today is September 4, 2026, 10:46. Before analyzing the copy, don't forget to summarize! After four months of losses totaling 3338U, I deeply reflected! A profound summary! A bloody lesson!!! 1. Control your position size, no more than 30% of your principal. 2. Never use leverage over 20X, preferably within 10X. 3. Always reject altcoins! 4. Only trade trend-following orders! 5. You must hold on, for days, weeks, or even months; to make money, patience is essential! 6. Hold at most 4 coins simultaneously, don't buy randomly! 7. Establish a small amount of hedging, set take profit and stop loss for hedges! Main orders only set take profit!! From now on, I will strictly follow the above lessons! Successful and qualified traders are disciplined, patient, and mentally stable! Thousands enter the market, but only a few succeed! Brothers, please witness with me the day I break even and earn ten million! $Overseas social platforms today broadcast public speeches by Federal Reserve officials. They stated no rush to start rate cuts in the short term, and inflation data still carries rebound risks. After the speech, US stocks and international gold plunged rapidly, and the crypto market followed risk assets into a correction. Market risk aversion sentiment quickly intensified. 💥The total liquidation amount across the network in 24 hours reached $2.27 billion, with 136,000 liquidation accounts. Short liquidations were $830 million, long liquidations $1.44 billion. After the rapid sharp drop, low-position shorts were also liquidated. Both longs and shorts suffered losses, with short-term volatility maxed out. Small and mid-cap altcoins retraced far more than the major market, showing clear signs of capital flight. 📊Spot$BTC $ETH data itself shows 206,000 initial claims, 1,000 higher than expected; continuing claims at 1.779 million, 16,000 lower than expected. It's neither here nor there. The low number of new claims indicates companies are not conducting large-scale layoffs. The slight rise in continuing claims suggests that unemployed people may be slower to find jobs. Overall, this points to slow hiring and slow layoffs, which cannot be considered a loosening signal, let alone a positive one. BTC's recent rise happened simultaneously with the data, but close timing does not equal causation. Also, this week's initial claims data is not within the August nonfarm payroll survey period, so it does not affect the nonfarm statistical scope at all. The market using this as an excuse to push prices up can only be seen as finding reasons to move during a data vacuum. The real test will be tonight's nonfarm payrolls and whether BTC can hold above 80k after the data release. If nonfarm is strong, the rate hike expectation will be locked in, making this rebound a bull trap. If nonfarm is weak, the probability of rate hikes loosens, and this rebound may have a chance to continue. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Is the bull market arriving?
Stablecoin issuer Circle's stock CRCL closed at $103.23, up 16.46%, reaching an intraday high of $103.28, with the closing price just $0.05 below the day's high. Meanwhile, Coinbase rose 10.14% to $192.70.
BTC dominance (the percentage of Bitcoin's market cap relative to the total crypto market cap) remains at 59%, and the Altcoin Season Index is still below 50, meaning money is still hiding in BTC and hasn't spread out. What the funds are doing is "rotation," not "entry."
Every bull market cycle has a clear leading narrative: 2017 was ICOs, 2020–21 was DeFi Summer plus NFT, 2023–24 is spot ETFs plus Meme and Solana. So far in this cycle, there is no widely recognized protagonist. Whoever truly brings incremental users from outside the circle will be the lead this round.
Without a protagonist, it's just a very beautiful short squeeze.
#比特币再破80000美元
#黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 Bitget上线GoPro股票永续合约，平台股票合约标的增至304只 9月4日，Bitget公告其股票永续合约板块新增GoPro（GPRO）标的，以USDT结算，支持最高20倍杠杆及7×24小时交易，平台股票永续合约标的总数达到304只。 Bitget于9月4日发布官方公告，宣布其股票永续合约板块新增GoPro（GPRO）标的。该合约以USDT计价结算，支持最高20倍杠杆，并提供7×24小时全天候交易，与传统美股有限的交易时段形成明显差异。至此，Bitget平台支持的股票永续合约标的数量已达304只。股票永续合约是加密交易所近年重点拓展的衍生品品类，其机制类似加密货币永续合约，通过资金费率机制锚定标的股价，但以稳定币结算，使加密用户无需开设美股券商账户即可获得个股价格敞口。相比传统股票市场每天有限的交易时间，这类合约支持全天候交易，且可双向操作并叠加杠杆，主要吸引寻求高波动交易机会的用户。GoPro作为运动相机厂商，近年股价波动较大，常因业绩表现、产品发布或市场情绪出现剧烈起伏，这类高波动个股往往是衍生品平台上线标的时较受关注的选择。对Bitget而言，持续扩充股票合约标的数量，是其推*English v1* *$BTC* is bouncing back above *$78.2K* after buyers stepped in and held the *$77.05K* zone — that level lines up with where most active traders are sitting on their entries. It shows demand is still in the market and sellers aren’t in full control. But the real test is *$80.8K*. Friday’s U.S. jobs report could be the spark for big moves. So instead of chasing pumps, the key is to watch if BTC can keep this bounce going and actually flip *$80.8K* into support. That’s what would#Waller: August inflation will decide whether to raise rates in September
Latest data
Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that whether to raise rates in September largely depends on the August CPI inflation data. If inflation cools down, the tendency is to hold steady; if the data heats up, it supports a rate hike. After the speech, the expectation for a September rate hike dropped directly to around 50%, and U.S. Treasury yields fell. The market price of $BTC is 80814, with a slight rebound, but overall it is still oscillating within a range, and funds are reluctant to make large bets in advance.
Market consensus
Many traders interpret this statement as a dovish signal, believing that pressure will ease and risk assets can catch a breather; another group remains cautious, thinking it just passes the ball to the inflation data and does not completely close the door on rate hikes. If CPI heats up, the market will be immediately pushed back.
Underlying logic analysis
Now Fed officials avoid making definitive statements, all tying decisions to the upcoming inflation data. The crypto market currently has no independent momentum; fluctuations in U.S. Treasuries and the dollar directly drive the market. The speech only brings emotional relief; real large fluctuations will only materialize once the CPI data is released.
Personal view (personally leaning towards a gradual return of the bull market, just a personal opinion, not investment advice)
Do not blindly turn bullish just because of the speech; the sustainability of the rebound caused by the news is questionable. As the key data approaches, control your positions and wait for solid data before making judgments. $ZEC has launched, and its rise will make you dizzy!
ZEC topped today's trending list, up 15%, directly hitting 979! Just one step away from 1000 dollars.
This is not retail speculation; institutional channels have truly opened.
Real money ETF has arrived. Grayscale ZCSH (formerly Zcash Trust converted to spot ETF) was listed on NYSE Arca on 8/25, the world's first ZEC spot ETP, now holding over 400,000 coins with AUM exceeding 300 million dollars. Institutions can allocate ZEC without opening wallets, changing the demand structure.
The narrative has changed. Early privacy coins = regulatory risk + delisting, now it’s "In the AI surveillance era, you need financial privacy." Grayscale directly uses AI surveillance as a point, blocking 4.81 million ZEC (28% of circulation) in the shielded pool, indicating it’s not pure speculation.
Leverage + breakout triggered short squeeze. After breaking 900, shorts were trapped; RSI at 79.6 hasn’t exploded yet, but 1000 is a key round number, volatility will explode.
Don’t forget the lesson from the Orchard vulnerability in June that caused a 50% drop in one day; Ironwood was only fixed in July.
Looking at 7 days, it aims to hit 1000, but it’s seriously overbought. 813 is today’s low, 845 is the bull-bear line; if it can’t hold, it will retest. Hold onto the privacy narrative, don’t chase at the 1000 threshold. BTC is quite interesting right now.
The price is oscillating between $76,000 and $78,000, but no one is letting it break the $76,350 line for the time being.
Because this roughly represents the average cost of active investors.
In other words, a group of market participants' holding costs are right here. BTC previously dropped to around $76,400 and then pulled back, which also indicates there is indeed buying interest in this area.
But September happens to be a month that tends to make people uncomfortable.
The historical average return is about -2.95%.
So don’t just look at whether the candlestick looks good or not right now.
On one hand, there is seasonal bearishness.
On the other hand, the cost line is being fiercely defended.
Who will win?
If $76,350 holds, it means buyers haven’t withdrawn yet.
If it breaks and fails to recover for a long time, then don’t take the word "support" too lightly.
The market won’t give you respect just because an indicator looks good.
$BTC 9.4 Big BTC Today Silk Road
Early this morning surged to 82282.8, currently MACD is above the 0 axis, bullish trading volume is gradually declining, Bollinger Bands opening, the trend is close to the middle band, expected to break below 80000 in the afternoon, light short positions to prevent spikes.
Operation point: Buy on dip near 80000 and stabilize
Stop loss defense: 796
First target: 810
Second target: 820
Long-term target: above 825
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #日本长债收益率升至高位
How extreme is the data? The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds touched 3% intraday, the first time since October 1996; the 30-year yield rose to 4.194%, a historic high. On September 2, the 10-year yield broke 3.015% again, and the 30-year yield rose to 4.190%. Global synchronized resonance—US 10-year Treasury yields once surpassed 4.78%, UK 10-year yields reached 5.255%, and German 10-year yields rose to 3.364%.
Triple pressures erupted simultaneously. First is fiscal loss of control. The 2027 fiscal year budget request is about ¥143 trillion, a record high for four consecutive years, and aggressive fiscal policy has triggered market panic over fiscal deterioration, leading to continuous selling of government bonds. Since the Komeito government took office, long-term government bond yields have been rising rapidly. Second is global inflation. The US-Iran conflict pushed up oil prices, Japan's energy is highly dependent on imports, inflation expectations are heating up, and government bonds are being sold off. Third is rate hike expectations. Overnight index swaps show the probability of a rate hike in September has soared to about 99%.
Japan's government bond yields breaking above 3% signals a fundamental change in global asset pricing logic. The zero interest rate era has completely ended, with $40 trillion in US debt, Japanese debt at 250% of GDP, and an AI corporate bond issuance wave—all three financing demands are competing for funds simultaneously. Japanese investors have long allocated large amounts to overseas bonds, and with domestic yields rising, some funds may flow back. Global interest rates may remain high for a longer period, and the opportunity cost of holding interest-free assets like Bitcoin will only continue to rise.Opening the exchange's red and green flashing interface, my first reaction isn't to calculate how much I've earned, but to close it and go back to sleep.
The news is messier than the weather forecast; today they say institutions are entering, tomorrow they say regulators are cracking down. Believing it can drive you crazy.
I tried watching the 5-minute candlestick for swing trading, but the fees ate a chunk, and my mind almost split.
Later, I simply converted most to $USDC, steadily earning interest, at least I won't wake up in the middle of the night to check the market.
The remaining $BTC I treat as a family heirloom, too lazy to move it whether it rises or falls, anyway I don't expect it to buy a house.
A friend uses a quant bot, adjusted parameters for three months, but returns haven't beaten a money market fund.
He said the most expensive tuition in this field is thinking you can beat market volatility.
My alarm now is only for waking up, not for reminding me to buy the dip or sell the top.
In the community, people shout "this time is different" every day, but the historical scripts just repeat the same few pages.
After hearing too many liquidation stories, I think those who can exit steadily are the real winners.
I don't look at the master’s door-shaped charts, only whether my bank balance can withstand going to zero.
I set my regular investment day on payday, treating it as forced pocket money savings; losing it doesn't hurt.
The funniest thing is some people sell their houses to rush in, then house prices rise, coins fall, and they get hit from both sides.
In the end, this game isn't about who has better skills, but who has a more Zen mindset.
I’m too lazy to even set stop-loss orders, because if I set them, I’ll itch to cancel them.
So I just set an annual alarm, check once a year, and let whatever happen happen in between.
Anyway, the money is spare cash, the time is
Friends, the anxious ones are those who want to get rich overnight.
Clocking off, hotpot tonight as usual, let the market do whatever it wants. $CORE deposit delayed again! The real big test for CORE is postponed to 5 PM today
The deposit maintenance time has been postponed again, directly rescheduled to 5 PM today.
Many people are still fantasizing that once the channel opens, there will be a violent rebound to break even. But reality is harsh; a delay does not mean the risk disappears, it only pushes the risk outbreak a few hours later.
Previously, deposits were restricted, and a large amount of chips were locked on the chain.
Positions trapped, staked tokens to redeem, and excess reward chips—all cannot be transferred into exchanges, temporarily holding down selling pressure.
When the gate fully opens at 5 PM, the long-accumulated chips will gain the freedom to be transferred out.
Once a large volume of chips floods into exchanges for liquidation, selling pressure will instantly hit the market.
Of course, there is another possibility: if very few chips are transferred out on-chain, the landing of the boot will also trigger a short-term pulse rebound.
Don’t be fooled by short-term market rises.
Deposit resumption only unlocks the transfer channel; it does not create buying pressure out of thin air.
Whether it rebounds or crashes depends entirely on the actual scale of chips transferred out on-chain at that time and whether the market buying power can withstand the impact.
Putting all hopes of breaking even on the deposit resumption is essentially a high-risk gamble. Today I want to expose a trash QDII: China Asset Management Global Technology Pioneer (QDII) annual biggest flip-flop, don't be fooled by the name! I was fooled before, it's so infuriating.
It surged 90% in the first half of the year, grabbing crazy attention, but then plunged nearly 19% in July alone, bottoming out among all QDIIs in the market! 😡 I got harvested for 10%!
What's even more ridiculous is that you’d think it’s a global tech allocation, but the quarterly report exposes the truth: US stock holdings plummeted to 16%, while A-shares + Hong Kong stocks accounted for nearly 60%! 😂
The fund manager justifies it by saying "QDII quota is limited" and fills the gap with Hong Kong Stock Connect, isn’t this just exploiting contract loopholes to cut retail investors?
The most infuriating part is that the 1.2% management fee is still charged without fail, but all losses caused by style drift are borne entirely by the investors. For those wanting to buy "global assets" to diversify risk, I strongly advise you to avoid this like a plague! Before buying, be sure to dig into the quarterly report to see the hidden underlying holdings, don’t be fooled by the facade of the top ten heavy holdings! 🤡
The above content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice$CORE revealed through yesterday's announcement that the dog whales are fabricating lies again, because the over-issuance is not just 150 million; from the sharply increased circulating supply, it looks like 350 million, nearly 400 million. Does that sound familiar? That's right, 350 million are tokens unclaimed by miners. Are they planning to dump everything and run? To protect their interests, exchanges have already stopped all deposits and withdrawals of staked coins. Two extra nodes appeared out of nowhere? Besides the dog whales' manipulation, nearly 20 billion yuan worth of retail investors have been exploited over 3 years.#沃勒：August inflation determines whether to raise rates in September
Three consecutive wins in September
I am Brother Ci, tonight at 8:30, August nonfarm payrolls, the last piece of the puzzle before the FOMC.
Waller softened his tone on September 3rd, saying if inflation continues recent progress, he supports keeping rates unchanged; if data is strong, he would consider supporting a rate hike. After the speech, the probability of a September rate hike fell from over 70% to 50.2%.
Reuters survey expects August to add 56,000 to 58,000 jobs, unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. July nonfarm was negative 23,000, May and June revised down by a total of 103,000. ADP gave 38,000, the weakest increase since January. Employment data has been cooling for three consecutive months.
Bank of America says nonfarm is just an appetizer, CPI is the main course deciding September rate hikes. Inflation is the core anchor of current policy.
Three scenarios. Nonfarm below 40,000, rate hike expectations continue to fall, BTC has a chance to rebound and test 79,000 to 80,000. Nonfarm between 50,000 and 80,000, direction unclear, BTC continues to fluctuate. Nonfarm above 100,000, rate hike expectations confirmed, BTC continues to be under pressure, looking down to 75,000 or even 72,000.
Employment data is cooling, but oil prices are still rising, Brent breaks through $95, inflationary price pressures are expanding. Among 178 PCE sub-items, 54% have year-on-year increases over 3%, compared to 47% a year ago. Employment is cooling, inflation is still rising, the market cannot price unilaterally. Don't bet on data, wait for it to land before acting. Tonight's nonfarm is just the appetizer, next week's CPI is the decisive battlefield for September rate hikes. $BTC