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Before tonight's nonfarm payroll release, three sets of U.S. data did not give $BTC a one-way answer.
U.S. Department of Labor data shows:
- For the week ending August 29, initial jobless claims were 206,000, an increase of 2,000 from the revised previous value;
- The four-week average rose to 207,250;
- Continuing claims were 1.779 million, an increase of 8,000 from the revised previous value.
Therefore, it is not accurate to simply describe the continuing claims data as "declining." Revisions to previous values and different comparison baselines can easily cause discrepancies between news headlines and official reports.
On the other hand, the August ISM Services Index rose to 55.4, indicating demand is still expanding; however, the employment sub-index is only 47.8, still in contraction territory, while the prices sub-index rose to 72.6.
Putting these data together, the situation is closer to:
Strong service demand, cautious corporate hiring, and persistent price pressures.
This is not simply "weak data = BTC rises," nor "strong economy = BTC falls." At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August employment report. What I will focus on then is:
1. Where the first big candlestick closes after the data release;
2. Whether there is a continuous close and continuation after breaking through the pre-event range;
3. If it quickly returns to the original range, whether this breakout was just a liquidity sweep.
Macro data is responsible for creating volatility, while price action confirms which direction the market ultimately accepts.
When you watch data-driven markets, do you chase the first wave or wait for event range confirmation? · Geopolitics: Rising tensions between the US and Iran have triggered market risk aversion. · Interest Rate Hike Expectations: US Treasury yields are climbing, reigniting market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. · "September Curse": Historically, September tends to be a poor month for risk assets, intensifying market anxiety. 📊 Reasons for the price changes of various cryptocurrencies are analyzed one by one. Below is the detailed situation of tokens in the table: 📉 Significant declines (dragged down by macro shocks or fundamental issues) · BTC (-0.31%): The tightening macro liquidity combined with deteriorating on-chain token distribution created a resonance effect, hindering the rebound. Technically, there is strong resistance around $82,000. · ETH (-0.50%): Besides macro pressure, the inflow of spot ETF funds is insufficient to absorb potential large sell-offs, causing the price to fall below $2,400. · SOL (-1.44%): An ecosystem hack led to nearly $300 million stolen, triggering liquidity and trust crises; token unlocks following FTX's bankruptcy continue to exert selling pressure. · XRP (-1.25%): Even with over $14 million net inflow from spot ETFs, it still couldn't withstand macro headwinds and large-scale derivative market sell-offs; after regulatory benefits were realized, the market saw profit-taking on "good news exhaustion." · DOGE (-2.09%): The bullish logic related to Musk collapsed, combined with whale sell-offs (reported at 260 million coins) and lack of new catalysts, leading to price pressure. · OKB (-1.73%): Following earlier speculative gainsThe market changed overnight, with $BTC bouncing from 77,000 straight up to 81,000! $ETH reclaimed 2,500, and $SOL also rose above 105. But looking closely, this surge is not due to a fundamental reversal; it's driven by sentiment recovery from news combined with short squeeze liquidations. #EarningsObserver: Broadcom's performance exceeded expectations, Snowflake raised guidance
Fed Governor Waller dropped a dovish hint, which was the most direct trigger. He said if inflation continues to cool, rates should remain unchanged, pushing the September rate hike probability down from 66% to around 50%. The market immediately amplified this signal—initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, signaling a cooling labor market, triggering a chain of short liquidations, and prices were pushed up accordingly. #LastDataBeforeFOMC: This Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls
However, looking at the market details, the quality of this rebound is not very high. After $BTC touched 82,000, it quickly fell back and is now hovering around 81,000—a typical spike and retrace pattern. Although $ETH returned to 2,510, institutional wallets transferred 167,800 ETH to CEX over the past three days, about $400 million, so selling pressure between 2,430-2,450 has not disappeared. $SOL surged the most, but high-beta assets tend to rise fast and fall fast as well. #CryptoTreasuryExpansion faces index qualification challenges 【Morning Brief】$SKHY 159.63 long 50x leverage held overnight, morning session mark price 164.32, unrealized profit +146.90%. This asset is expected to be speculated along with SK Hynix mapping, but contract depth is shallow. 159.63 is the previous low resonance support, after low volume consolidation it chose to move upward.
Position logic unchanged: support not broken + altcoin rotation + 50x leverage amplification. But this kind of morning pump is mostly short covering, not new capital driving the main rise, 1.46x profit mostly taken off the table.
Remaining base position stop loss moved up to 160.5, exit immediately if broken, no replenishment. No new positions in the morning session, unpopular coin with high probability of false breakout in Asian session.
Intraday watch resistance reaction at 165, if volume breaks through then look at 168; if low volume tests highs, treat as distribution, no stubborn holding. $BTC $ETH #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Bottomline integrates LINK, connecting over 600 banks to blockchain settlement
SWIFT service provider Bottomline announced a partnership with Chainlink to provide on-chain cross-border settlement capabilities to more than 600 bank clients in its network, which processes over $16 trillion in payments annually. The direction is clear: traditional clearing does not want to build a new chain but rather connect existing banking gateways to verifiable on-chain messages and reserve data.
The market implication is not that a certain coin will double the next day, but that stablecoin and RWA settlements are beginning to enter the core pipeline. $LINK serves the oracle and cross-chain messaging layer, while $ETH and $BNB chains compete in actual settlement and issuance. Unlike "launching a new stablecoin," this is a migration of existing bank traffic. The implementation cycle is measured in quarters, so don’t treat the news as an immediate buy signal, but the move from pilot to production for on-chain settlement is a line worth following separately.At a glance: US XRP Spot ETF single-day total net inflow of $6.1376 million
According to SoSoValue data, yesterday (September 3, US Eastern Time) the XRP Spot ETF single-day total net inflow was $6.1376 million.
The XRP Spot ETF with the highest net inflow yesterday was Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ), with a single-day net inflow of $3.1868 million, and a current historical total net inflow of $473 million.
Next was Bitwise XRP ETF (XRP), with a single-day net inflow of $2.9508 million, and a current historical total net inflow of $599 million.
As of the time of publication, the total net asset value of XRP Spot ETFs is $1.552 billion, with an XRP net asset ratio of 1.68%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached $1.682 billion. Coinbase拟在美国推出个股永续合约，已向SEC提交衍生品交易所及经纪商注册通知 Coinbase正推进在美国本土上线单一个股永续合约，本周已向SEC提交衍生品交易所及经纪商注册通知，并表示将与SEC及CFTC密切合作。永续合约这一加密市场标志性衍生品形态，正尝试正式进入美国传统证券市场。 永续合约没有到期日，依靠资金费率机制锚定现货价格，是离岸加密交易所交易量最大的衍生品品类，但由于监管限制，美国散户长期无法交易加密永续合约，个股永续更是空白。Coinbase此前已通过旗下受CFTC监管的衍生品平台上线BTC、ETH等受监管的永续期货，此次进一步将永续机制扩展至单一个股，属美国市场的首创性尝试。公司同步申请衍生品交易所与经纪商双重注册，意在打通证券与衍生品的合规路径，并协调SEC、CFTC两大监管机构共同推进。这一事件的重要性体现在三个层面：产品层面，若获批，美国投资者将首次能在合规框架内以带杠杆、无到期日的方式交易个股衍生品，零售交易工具显著扩容；行业层面，代表加密金融工程开始向传统证券市场反向输出，两大监管机构的协同也释放出美国对创新衍生品态度转暖的信号；对公司层面，交易手续🔥$BTC mainnet is responsible for "lying flat and preserving value," while layer two handles "working and getting things done"
The BTC ecosystem nowadays is no longer just about transfers like in the early days; the division of labor increasingly resembles a large company: the mainnet acts as the treasury + attendance system, and L2 serves as the business department. The Lightning Network is the most mature, with data showing over 5 million monthly transactions, capacity exceeding 6000 BTC, and more than 75,000 channels. Strike, Breez, Cash App, and many merchants use it. Fees are often less than 1 cent, making it suitable for "buying coffee and paying salaries"; however, it has to manage channel liquidity and can't handle everything.
For smart contracts, the approach is "no changes to the mainnet": BitVM/BitVM2 use cryptographic challenges instead of multi-signature federations, Citrea implements ZK Rollup and writes proofs back to BTC, GOAT/BOB/Alpen provide trust-minimized bridges, Stacks runs DeFi with Clarity, and Liquid handles institutional privacy settlements. To translate: previously, BTC had to "ask others to babysit" when playing on other chains; now it tries to "install monitoring at home." But new L2 TVL is small, audits and bridge assumptions are still new, so don't treat whitepapers as mainnet-level security.
You can say in groups: "Lightning handles grocery payments, BitVM handles contract writing, Stacks handles DeFi, mainnet handles counting money; the BTC ecosystem isn't lazy and unproductive, it's just that the boss doesn't run errands personally. Don't treat 'Bitcoin L2' as a unified concept; payment types, ZK types, sidechain types, and staking types each have their own accounting." $BTC $SPCX has a long-term story and short-term sentiment.
Three days ago, I missed placing a long order at 140; I already knew the rocket was going to rise, but I was stuck with SanDisk and Ethereum, so I didn’t dare to operate recklessly. I missed the rocket rally, which is a bit regrettable. This surge in SPCX is not caused by a single event but by several good things coming together, plus capital entering the market to speculate, which quickly pushed the stock price up. Previously, the market was worried that after a large batch of restricted shares held by employees were unlocked, everyone would rush to sell, directly crashing the stock price. But when the unlock actually happened, not many were willing to sell, and the selling pressure was far less than expected. Those who bet on the stock price falling and planned to short to make money saw the situation was unfavorable and had to quickly buy back to close their positions, which further pushed the price up. This is a case where bad news turned into good news after landing.
People’s perception of this company has also changed; it’s no longer seen simply as a company that launches rockets and operates Starlink satellite internet. Now capital is starting to speculate on its future AI computing power layout. The number of Starlink users continues to grow, providing stable revenue, and combined with the hot AI story, many investment banks have raised their target prices, attracting more capital.
Additionally, the US market is beginning to speculate on weakening employment, with the Federal Reserve possibly cutting interest rates later, and US Treasury yields falling. Stocks that tell stories based on future expectations are especially sensitive to interest rates. When rate cut expectations rise, capital is willing to give higher valuations.
Another point is that there are not many freely tradable shares on the market, so it doesn’t take huge capital to quickly push the stock price up. It’s thrilling to watch the price rise, but conversely, once the good news is realized and capital takes profits and leaves, the price can fall very quickly.
What you need to be aware of is that this company is still overall losing money. The stock price rise relies on future imagination, not on stable profits in hand now. There will be another round of share unlocks later, and a large amount of selling pressure could emerge at any time. Moreover, the company’s development direction follows Musk’s plans. If Starlink, AI, and other businesses don’t meet expectations, the stock price could experience a significant correction at any time. Overall, the long-term story looks very attractive. This round of price increase is driven by the digestion of unlock-related negative news, improved business expectations, and rate cut expectations. However, this stock is very volatile and only suitable for light positions and small trades. Do not hold heavy positions and hold on tightly.$KORU
The domestic pension fund acted as a long-term national team, making a large-scale late-session intervention to support the market, investing 120 billion KRW in 20 minutes to heavily buy leading technology stocks.
Historically, pension funds buying against the trend often signal a phase bottom. Currently, with continuous foreign capital outflows, the market is solely supported by pension funds absorbing chips to stabilize the market. Long-term capital entering to support the bottom has opened up the potential for an upward move.Yesterday the market suddenly collectively breathed a sigh of relief: US stocks rose, US bonds rose, gold briefly surged to around 4470, and BTC also reclaimed above 80,000.
To put it simply, what everyone is really trading on is not some mysterious positive news, but the fact that the September rate hike expectations have been pushed down again.
After Waller spoke, the market's bet on a September 16 rate hike returned to about a 50-50 split. His message was simple: if inflation continues to fall, there’s no need to rush to raise rates; but if the data heats up again, then the hike will still have to happen.
So the most critical thing now is not guessing, but waiting for the data.
Tonight’s nonfarm payrolls are the first test.
If employment continues to cool, the market will definitely keep betting on "no rate hike"; but if the nonfarm suddenly comes out very strong, the recently eased rate hike expectations could very well be pulled back.
Gold is now around 4473, which itself is the most direct safe-haven and interest rate trading asset; on the US stock side, $SNDK has also returned to around 1550, showing that risk assets are clearly reacting to this wave of expectation changes.
Looking at the crypto space, Bitcoin has reclaimed above 80,000, and for now I remain somewhat bullish, but the biggest fear here is that before the data comes out, funds have already pre-spent the positive expectations.
Ethereum is similar; it has more bounce than BTC but is also more dependent on liquidity.
So I’m not in a hurry to call the bull market back yet.
Tonight we first watch employment in the nonfarm data, then on September 11 we look at CPI.
Buying SanDisk below 1600 is basically free money with no brain needed.Uniswap Labs' direct investment in purchasing tokens of Robinhood Chain's native Launchpad (asset launcher) Pons is far from a simple PR-style strategic cooperation; it is a rare and highly targeted "tokenized capital alignment" and "asset issuance source positioning." The harsh reality of DEX competition is: whoever controls token issuance monopolizes 100% of the subsequent secondary market liquidity and trading fees. In the past, Raydium drained a large amount of retail liquidity on Solana through the highly profitable token issuance pipeline Pump.fun. As a DeFi leader, Uniswap previously mainly handled secondary liquidity for already issued projects. By directly investing and deeply binding with Pons, Uniswap Labs attempts to build a seamless closed loop of "token issuance (Pons) → trading (Uniswap v4)" on Robinhood Chain. All new tokens launched on Pons will have their initial liquidity pools and subsequent trading forcibly or by default mounted on Uniswap's underlying protocol, directly contributing high-frequency trading volume and protocol revenue to Uniswap. Robinhood, as a super gateway for compliant retail fund inflows and outflows, naturally accumulates highly sticky retail funds and compliance attributes through its deployed Web3 chain (Robinhood Chain). Through Pons US East 9-3 Fund Details (Unit: Million USD)
BTC Spot ETF
IBIT (BlackRock) +115.4
BITB (Bitwise) +4.2
MSBT (Morgan Stanley) +7.3
BTC (Grayscale Mini) +30.4
GBTC (Grayscale Old) -56.2
BTC Total: +101.1
ETH Spot ETF
ETHA (BlackRock) -53.4
FETH (Fidelity) -26.2
ETHE (Grayscale) -23.5
ETHB (Staking) +53.0
ETH Total: -48.08
Market Interpretation
On 9-3, funds showed extreme divergence. After a large outflow the previous day, BTC immediately rebounded with strong buyback from IBIT; Grayscale old trust continued redemptions, recovering nearly half of yesterday's outflow. Institutions have not exited the market trend-wise.
ETH ended a 12-trading-day streak of net inflows, experiencing its first large redemption. Mainstream products generally saw outflows, with only staking-type ETHB receiving funds, indicating capital fleeing spot ETH and internally switching to staking products.
On the macro level, geopolitical sentiment fluctuated repeatedly, causing rapid swings in fund behavior: BTC's safe-haven attribute was picked up again, while ETH's growth attribute was temporarily set aside.
Alert status: No consecutive two-day outflow alert triggered; alert lifted, returning to observation status.
$BTC $ETH Yesterday's $ZEC really gave the market another lesson. The price surged to around $970 at one point, with a 24-hour increase close to 20%. Against the backdrop of a broad market rebound, it clearly outperformed mainstream coins. But if you only look at "ZEC suddenly rose 20%," it’s actually not very meaningful. What’s truly worth studying is: Why is capital now frantically chasing ZEC again? Is this rally just short-term speculation, or a new trend revaluation? 1. The core of ZEC’s rise this time is not simply "privacy coin speculation." In the past, the market’s speculation on ZEC usually followed a simple logic: privacy narrative → capital inflow → surge → sentiment fade. But this time, the market has added much more to ZEC. On one hand, the privacy sector has regained attention. On the other hand, ZEC has begun to see clearer institutional capital inflows, with products like ETFs making traditional capital participation in ZEC more direct. This has led to a shift in ZEC’s market positioning: it used to be more like an "old-school privacy coin." Now the market is starting to see it as: the leader in the privacy sector + an ETF capital vehicle + a high Beta crypto asset. This change is far more important than a single-day 20% price increase. 2. "Breakout + short squeeze + FOMO"—three forces driving the explosive rally. The most notable thing about yesterday’s bullish candle is that it wasn’t a slow grind upward. After the price breakout, trading volume and market attention quickly expanded. And when a coin long ignored by the marketADP stabbed first — 38,000, expected 47,000, the worst since January this year. The Beige Book added fuel: 10 out of 12 districts only mention "moderate growth," employment expansion clearly stalled. The data is clearly signaling a slowdown, yet CME stubbornly shows a 62.3% probability of a rate hike in September; the market is like a schizophrenic.
Friday at 8:30 PM, the August nonfarm payroll showdown. $BTC nonfarm expectations have long split into three camps. Reuters says 58,000, Deutsche Bank hits 65,000, Wells Fargo and NBC directly forecast 80,000. The bigger the expectation gap, the faster the meat grinder spins tonight; any side missing the mark will trigger a spike.
I’ll write you three scripts with my eyes closed —
Nonfarm above 65,000: rate hike expectations locked in, $BTC takes the hit first, 75,000 may not hold, the real bottom might be around 72,000. Don’t catch a falling knife. $SOL
Nonfarm between 58,000-65,000: meets expectations = no direction, choppy consolidation, both bulls and bears get shaken out, better to sleep than stare at the screen.
Nonfarm below 58,000: rate hike expectations extinguished immediately, market reprices instantly, $BTC rebounds to challenge 80,000, whether to chase then is a test of human nature.
My stance is simple: betting on data is gambling with your life, wait for the actual numbers before stepping in. Once direction emerges, right-side trading always lets you sleep better than left-side bottom fishing. $ETH
#Last data set before FOMC: this Friday’s nonfarmHonestly, today's market has been the most exhilarating in a long time.
The small non-farm payroll was only 38,000, and the Beige Book clearly indicated that employment is weakening. A few days ago, the market was panicking, worried that there might be a rate hike in September, but tonight the tone suddenly shifted, with funds rushing wildly to the bulls' side, and talk of rate cuts resurfaced.
BTC directly surged to 81,000, a truly fierce move all at once. Ethereum $ETH was even more dramatic—I entered a long position at 2338.42, and watched it climb steadily from 2360 to 2500. Although the profit wasn't huge, the feeling of going from anxiety to relief was incredibly thrilling.
$OKB also surged to around 109. All three moving together this time doesn't feel like a fake pump; it seems like real liquidity is flowing in.
But despite all this, I still feel a bit uneasy. The CME still shows a 62.3% chance of a rate hike in September, and the real test will be the non-farm payroll at 8:30 tonight. If the data continues to be weak, the easing narrative can continue; but if employment suddenly strengthens, these early bullish positions could be crushed in minutes.
No need to say much about Trump's mouth—one careless comment can turn sentiment upside down.
So, I think it's still too early to call the bull market back. We'll know for sure after tonight's non-farm payroll results—whether it's a mule or a horse will become clear.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 The 30-year yield above five percent has held for forty-one consecutive trading days. In chess terms, this is called a “long control” — the opponent is not in check, but the entire open file is firmly in hand. Gold, stocks, and Bitcoin are merely pawns pushed to the sidelines, each searching for a crack to breathe through.
A grandmaster does not rush to respond to every local provocation. What truly matters is the pawn structure, not the value of a single pawn in hand. The rise in long-term yields is a pawn chain advancing across the center: rate hike expectations are the knight on e4, the fiscal deficit is the stacked pawns behind, and issuance volume and term premium are the rooks extending along the open file. Once this entire set of pieces is committed, the market’s time value is re-evaluated as a whole. Any player trying to protect duration will find their position like a central pawn surrounded by enemy wings; no matter which direction they exchange pieces, new gaps will emerge.
Oil prices near ninety dollars is a subtle move, like the opponent casually pushing a flank pawn in the middlegame. The memory of inflation was originally a black bishop sleeping in the a1 corner, suddenly awakened by the light of that passed pawn. It eyes your king’s fortress across a long diagonal, and all previously solid defensive postures now carry an unconscious tremble. The rise in oil is no longer just a number at the gas station; it is a passed pawn rolling forward at ninety dollars per hour, ready to tear open the entire kingside defense at any moment.
Some pin their hopes on upcoming inflation data and meeting decisions. This is like waiting for the opponent to voluntarily offer a respite in a winning position, hoping yields will retreat a few steps from their highs. But in high-level play, a respite does not equal opportunity; it often serves only as cover before shifting to another front. The expansion of Treasury supply, the rebound of term premium, and the aftereffects of fiscal expansion — these hidden forces make no sound but have already reached the fourth rank. They are so quiet that one might mistakenly believe the center of the board remains safe. Yet a true grandmaster knows that when all pieces remain on the board, the outcome is always decided by those two connected passed pawns.
Meanwhile, news of Treasury repos sounds like exchanging a rook for a knight, trying to open a small hole in the liquidity-clogged congestion. This operation can temporarily relieve pressure on a clear file but cannot change the fact that the pawn chain has already advanced in the overall game. The endgame of the capital market cannot be overturned by one or two tactical moves. It tests the stability of the pawn structure and the calculability of timing. Once the opponent’s pawns freely control key squares, the king’s fortress of all long-duration assets will gradually lose its outer defenses.
Bitcoin’s position in this setup is especially clear. It is not the main force charging on the board but more like a knight trapped by the opponent’s diagonal, its escape routes blocked. It still has jumping space, but every landing square is quietly guarded by high-interest pieces. No one treats the knight as the sole core in modern chess; but when trapped in a corner, even a safe escape requires sacrificing a pawn first. This is the real pawn structure of current crypto assets: not directly checkmated, but every step pays an invisible cost.
Forty-one trading days is enough time for a grandmaster to calculate the endgame twenty moves ahead. The pawn group of the 30-year yield already stands on the seventh rank. No retreat behind, promotion ahead. The clock ticks second by second, and the empty squares on the board grow fewer. Pawn promotion never needs announcement; it only requires an unguarded square.
And now, the seventh rank has long been open. #30yabove5%for41daysThe next crypto bull market will be completely different from before! Bitwise Chief Investment Officer: Only institutions are entering the market
The next crypto bull market is completely different from the past
If you are still waiting for Bitcoin to drop again for a good "bottom fishing" opportunity, you might need to rethink.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently shared an interesting observation: in the past two months, the market has been almost "immune" to bad news. The founder of MicroStrategy sold Bitcoin, but the market didn’t crash; over a hundred million dollars worth of cold wallets were stolen, but the market didn’t crash; the Clarity Act stalled in the Senate, yet the market still didn’t crash.
When the market shows no reaction to bad news, it often means the bottom has truly been reached.
But today, I want to talk not about whether Bitcoin will rise or not, but about the underlying logic of the next bull market—it may be unlike any before.
The bull market is slowing down but becoming more solid
In the past, the crypto market followed a "four-year cycle": three years up, one year down. But this time, the pullback was only 55%, not the usual 70% to 80%. The cycle is compressing, and volatility is decreasing.
There is only one core reason: the buyers have changed.
Four years ago, retail investors rushed in, but now Bitwise deals daily with institutions, family offices, and sovereign wealth funds. Their holding periods are not 3 to 5 days, but 3 to 5 years or even 10 years.
Hougan provided some concrete data: Bitwise’s typical client needs to hold about eight meetings before making an allocation decision. Bitcoin ETFs were approved in January 2024, and by this summer, these institutions are just finishing their education cycle.
Their questions have shifted from "whether to invest" to "when to invest."
Two pools of capital, two completely different paths
The most critical judgment going forward is that the bull market will be split into two markets.
On one side is institutional capital. Platforms like Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch manage about $20 trillion in assets combined. They prioritize buying mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum that can accommodate large funds. Even a 1% to 2% allocation from these platforms means a continuous inflow of hundreds of billions of dollars.
On the other side is on-chain native capital. They bet on DeFi applications with real revenue—such as Hyperliquid, Uniswap, Aave, and Morpho.
Why don’t institutions buy Uniswap directly? The reason is simple: liquidity scale mismatch. Uniswap’s $2.5 billion market cap can’t absorb institutional money, but Bitcoin and Ethereum can.
However, on-chain capital understood something earlier than institutions: the application layer is generating real cash flow.
Real revenue is no longer a "future tense"
In 2025, Ethereum and Solana generated about $1.2 billion in fee revenue. Hyperliquid alone generated over $1 billion in annualized fee revenue in 2025, 99% of which was used to buy back its own tokens. Uniswap and Lido also introduced fee-sharing mechanisms in 2025.
In other words, these projects are no longer "selling dreams" but distributing real income to token holders.
Bitwise research director Ryan Rasmussen’s judgment is straightforward: DeFi will become in the next bull market what we thought it would be in 2021—the regulatory shackles have been lifted.
Stablecoins and RWA: a bigger opportunity overlooked by most
Stablecoins are undergoing a role transformation—from trading settlement tools to core infrastructure for global capital flows.
Research by Citi and Brookfield predicts stablecoin circulation could grow 15-fold by 2030. But the real opportunity may not be in stablecoins themselves, but in the "pipeline" behind them.
Stablecore’s co-founder predicts that by 2026, regional banks will stop relying on large banks for cross-border remittances and switch to stablecoins—reducing costs by 90% and completing settlements within seconds.
The bigger strategic opportunity lies in the "orchestration layer"—transaction routing and settlement services across chains, banks, and payment networks. This is like how in the 19th century, the railroads themselves were not the greatest source of wealth; the real wealth came from the steel, coal, and distribution networks built around the railroads.
Looking at RWA (real-world asset tokenization), this market has already surpassed $33.7 billion, tripling in the past year. Tokenized U.S. Treasury products on Ethereum alone have attracted nearly $1.5 billion, with Franklin Templeton and BlackRock leading the way.
Nasdaq is partnering with Kraken to allow investors to trade tokenized versions of stocks and ETFs; the New York Stock Exchange is also working with Securitize to launch a digital token platform. 54% of financial services companies are already investing in tokenization.
In conclusion
The next crypto bull market will not explode overnight like before. It will be slower, more solid, and more fundamentally driven.
Bitcoin will increasingly resemble gold, Ethereum and Solana will be more like tech stocks, and protocols with real revenue may become the "cash cows" of DeFi.
Washington’s moves are slower than the crypto community is used to—but this time it’s the "real deal" $USELESS whales are starting to slowly reduce their positions$BTC surged 24% in a single month, entering a "digital gold pricing cycle"?
But what I actually think is truly worth being cautious about tonight is not whether BTC can continue to surge, but whether liquidity might suddenly turn sour.
BTC's correlation with gold has risen to a multi-year high, combined with expectations of debt monetization, the macro narrative is indeed changing. However, the $86,000 area has repeatedly proven to be strong resistance, and tonight's non-farm payrolls and next week's CPI are potential liquidity killers. Chasing at this level doesn't offer good odds; waiting for a pullback confirmation feels more comfortable.
More importantly: this rally is clearly not a "broad rally," but a narrative divergence.
First category, cash flow has already been realized: $ARB
The revenue share brought by Robinhood Chain has already started entering the Arbitrum ecosystem, and the income is real and verifiable. Robinhood Chain's recent gas revenue has surged dramatically, even surpassing other major chains at one point. The logic is solid, but $ARB also faces short-term overbought conditions and September unlock pressure, so don't blindly chase the highs.
Second category, cash flow is on the way: $LINK
Chainlink is cooperating with Bottomline, connecting over 600 banks, corresponding to an annual payment processing scale of about $16 trillion behind it. Traditional financial payment infrastructure is beginning to migrate on-chain, and this is the real long-term imagination.
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 How far can CORE go after losing the trust of exchanges and the community?
Current Reality
1. Trust damage at the exchange level
Multiple high-risk protocol vulnerabilities have triggered risk control assessments by several leading exchanges, resulting in suspension of deposits and withdrawals, and delisting actions on some platforms.
Centralized exchanges prioritize network stability and token supply security. Once labeled as "frequent mainnet vulnerabilities," it becomes extremely difficult to regain listing on all major exchanges.
Without deep liquidity from top CEXs, the main trading venues for the token will shift to small and medium exchanges and DEXs, causing increased slippage and liquidity shrinkage, and institutional funds will generally avoid entering.
2. Severe division and exhaustion of community support and sentiment
Some early holders are deeply trapped and feel disappointed and suspicious due to repeated incidents and delayed information disclosure; a large portion of the old community has left, and new ordinary users are reluctant to join.
Only the core believers remain steadfast, while ordinary market participants have voted with their feet. In crypto projects, no matter how grand the narrative, losing public trust makes it very difficult for the market to assign a high valuation.
3. The network itself is still running and has not directly shut down
The project team continues to perform hard forks for fixes and advance BTCFi-related development; the node network is still producing blocks and running, so delisting does not mean it will immediately become worthless or disappear.
But the network running does not mean the token price or ecosystem can return to its peak; network survival and market cap recovery are two completely different matters.
Lies told three times, no matter how much you act, it’s hard to fool! There are patients everywhere, but it’s hard to persuade those seeking death!ZEC +16.88%, LIT +17%, both soared on the same day
September 3: Fed's Waller hinted no rate hike, no action BTC 76,000 → 81,000, 24h short liquidations $416 million.
High beta (β) assets surged exponentially:
ZEC secured the first-ever privacy coin spot ETF (ZCSH), attracting $53 million in three days after listing, while the network only added 657,000 coins in a year. Plus SEC closed the case in January, and 30% of circulating supply locked in shielded pool—supply side locked down by three locks simultaneously.
LIT: 100% of fees used for buyback and burn, first burn destroyed 6.3% of circulating supply, half of circulating supply staked, real tradable chips possibly only a quarter. Robinhood's traffic closed loop.
The reason for the surge is the same: strong narrative, tight supply, heavy leverage.
(ZEC futures/spot trading ratio 8:1,
LIT unlocks 500 million coins in December)
$ZEC $BTC $LIT In the past 24 hours, BTC has surged from around $77,000, reaching a high of over $82,000. The core reason is still the easing of macro expectations, with Vice President Pence publicly calling for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates; Waller also stated that as long as the upcoming inflation data does not rebound, the September policy meeting is likely to hold steady.
The cooling of rate hike expectations, the decline in US Treasury yields, combined with short covering, have collectively amplified BTC's gains. However, whether the rally can continue depends on next week's CPI data; if the data is moderate, expectations for a pause in rate hikes will be further solidified; if inflation rebounds, the recent gains could quickly be given back.
Then there's the wild card of Iran—if oil prices rise, inflation expectations will be reignited. Let's just hope Trump stays quiet recently and doesn't add more trouble to the market. Brothers, both BTC and ETH broke through key levels today
Just checked the data, $BTC is currently at $81,200, $ETH is currently at $2,506. In the past 24 hours, BTC rose over 5%, returning above $80,000; ETH rose nearly 5%, reclaiming the $2,500 level
Core driver: sharp drop in rate hike expectations
Last week, initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, signaling a cooling labor market. Fed Governor Waller stated that if inflation improves in August, he would support keeping rates unchanged. Market bets on a September rate hike dropped sharply from 63% to 50%. This contrasts sharply with last week's hawkish remarks from Waller, sparking a rebound in risk assets
In the past 24 hours, about $415 million in short positions were liquidated in the crypto market, with ETH and XRP shorts being the most concentrated. Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 has risen to 97-98%, indicating this rebound relies more on macro expectations than crypto's own narrative. August spot ETF net inflows were about $3.5 billion, the largest monthly inflow in over a year, providing a capital base for the rise
Technically: BTC resistance above at 82,000-82,500, with selling pressure near 82,000; ETH resistance above at 2,540-2,560
Trading advice: BTC pullback to 80,000-80,200 to stabilize and try long, stop loss at 79,000; ETH pullback to 2,480-2,500 to stabilize and try long, stop loss at 2,450. Friday's nonfarm payroll data remains a key variable
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
How did Robinhood Chain suddenly become so popular? ARB surged 30% in two days, a storyline even more magical than Pharaoh's pyramids.
On-chain data really exploded. On September 3, DEX 24-hour trading volume hit $1.851 billion, marking the sixth consecutive day of record highs. TVL surpassed $740 million, nearly doubling since August 1.
Where did this volume come from? A new Meme play involving crypto-stock pairs. The Meme coin pool no longer pairs with ETH or USDC, but with tokenized stocks—so when you buy Meme, you indirectly buy NVDA. As of September 1, about 17.2% of the on-chain supply of 19 high-liquidity stock tokens was locked in Meme pools.
Robinhood Chain uses Arbitrum Orbit technology; 10% of protocol net income flows directly back into the Arbitrum ecosystem, 8% goes to the DAO treasury, and 2% to the developer guild. ARB earned about $1.3 million in revenue share from this wave, rising 46.7% in two weeks, with a single-day surge of 30% on September 1.
Pharaoh's one-sentence summary: Robinhood Chain's strategy links Meme traffic, RWA assets, and ARB revenue share into a closed loop. But don't forget, 139 million ARB will unlock on September 23.
Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won't lose its way! $BTC $ETH $SOL #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 📊 $ETH Contract Liquidation Express (September 4)
Bears dominated all day, starting with a 26.7x bear crush in 1 hour, then a 4-hour avalanche down to 1.78x near equilibrium, a second surge to 4.14x in 12 hours, and narrowing to 3.26x at 24 hours close—N-shaped oscillation followed by high-level stabilization but weakening momentum at the margin. The high concentration shows most liquidations were completed within the 12-hour window, with $110 million in liquidations hitting a recent peak.
Time Total Liquidations Long Liquidations Short Liquidations
1 hour $892,500 $32,200 $860,300
4 hours $9,709,400 $3,493,100 $6,216,300
12 hours $92,207,900 $17,934,900 $74,273,000
24 hours $110,000,000 $25,646,100 $83,572,900
1-hour bears crushed at 26.7x with $892,500 volume; 4-hour bear avalanche down to 1.78x near equilibrium with volume soaring to $9,709,400, short squeeze momentum sharply retreating from peak; 12-hour bears surged again to 4.14x with volume spiking to $92,207,900; 24-hour bears closed at 3.26x with $83,572,900 liquidations versus $25,646,100 longs, totaling $110 million liquidations. The 12-hour liquidations accounted for 83.8% of the 24-hour total, showing extremely high concentration. Multiplier trajectory: 26.7x → 1.78x → 4.14x → 3.26x, an N-shaped oscillation followed by high-level stabilization but marginal weakening. Leverage is recommended to be compressed below 3x; direction is clear but momentum has retreated from peak, avoid blind short chasing.
🔥 Market Indicator | September 4
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Nonfarm payroll data is the "last piece of the puzzle" before September rate hikes, with AI earnings and on-chain revenue narratives providing new market pricing anchors.
📊 Nonfarm Preview: Data is the "appetizer," CPI is the main course
US August nonfarm payrolls release at 8:30 PM Friday, market expects 58,000 new jobs, unemployment rate 4.1%. Previous value was -23,000, weak for three consecutive months. "Small nonfarm" ADP added only 38,000, below expectations, lowest in 7 months. Bank of America sees nonfarm as just the "appetizer," CPI is the key to September rate hikes. CME shows rate hike probability steady at about 62%. If nonfarm weakens, rate hike expectations will cool quickly; if strong, September hike is almost certain.
🖥️ Broadcom and Snowflake: The more explosive the earnings, the more selective the market
Broadcom Q3 revenue $29.591 billion, +86% YoY, AI semiconductors $16.7 billion, +221% YoY, but Q4 guidance slightly below expectations, after-hours down over 6%. Snowflake revenue $1.55 billion, +35%, accelerating for three consecutive quarters, after-hours surged over 23%.
⛓️ Robinhood Chain Volume Surge: ARB Soars on "Platform Tax" Narrative
ARB rose nearly 30% in one day, Robinhood Chain's daily protocol fees hit a record $3.75 million, accumulating $13.05 million fees in two months. Fee income narrative is replacing narrative-driven growth, becoming the core logic for ARB's repricing.
💎 Summary
Nonfarm is the last piece before September rate hikes, but CPI is the real decider; Broadcom's $29.5 billion revenue proves AI hardware is still booming, but the market cannot tolerate a 1% guidance miss; Snowflake's accelerating growth proves AI software is delivering returns; ARB's surge marks on-chain revenue narrative becoming a new dimension in crypto asset pricing. ETH liquidation data resonates with BTC—$110 million total liquidations, bears account for 76%, 83.8% concentration, N-shaped oscillation from 26.7x → 1.78x → 4.14x, indicating large funds have completed directional heavy bets before nonfarm. The two giants simultaneously point to the bear side, the clearest market statement before nonfarm landing. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 PONS has entered the current hot search, rising about 47.41% in 24 hours. The trading volume in the same window is about 166 million USD, roughly one-third of the market cap of 501 million USD. This figure is striking, but it proves turnover intensity, not "an equivalent amount of new funds settled."
Trading volume counts every transaction: the same batch of tokens can be repeatedly transferred in a short time, with market making quotes, short-term position closures, and rebalancing between different platforms all raising the total amount. Market cap is the valuation of all circulating tokens at a certain price, and the ratio between the two cannot be directly taken as net buying or the number of new holders.
The closer state in this round is: PONS's attention and trading activity have significantly increased, but the public price and total trading volume still cannot distinguish real net absorption from high-frequency turnover. If continuous spot inflows across venues, changes in holding address structure, or verifiable primary catalysts can be seen, then this explanation can be upgraded. $UNI How far can CORE go after losing the trust of exchanges and the community?
Current Reality
1. Trust damage at the exchange level
Multiple high-risk protocol vulnerabilities have triggered risk control assessments by several leading exchanges, resulting in suspension of deposits and withdrawals, and delisting actions on some platforms.
Centralized exchanges prioritize network stability and token supply security. Once labeled as "frequent mainnet vulnerabilities," it becomes extremely difficult to regain listing on all major exchanges.
Without deep liquidity from top CEXs, the main trading venues for the token will shift to small and medium exchanges and DEXs, causing increased slippage and liquidity shrinkage, and institutional funds will generally avoid entering.
2. Severe division and exhaustion of community sentiment
Some early holders are deeply trapped and feel disappointed and suspicious due to repeated incidents and delayed information disclosure; a large portion of the old community has left, and new ordinary users are reluctant to join.
Only the core believers remain steadfast, while ordinary market participants have voted with their feet. In crypto projects, no matter how grand the narrative, losing public trust makes it very difficult for the market to assign a high valuation.
3. The network itself is still running, not directly halted
The project team continues to perform hard forks for fixes and advance BTCFi-related development; the node network is still producing blocks and running, so delisting does not mean immediate zeroing out or disappearance.
But a running chain does not mean the token price or ecosystem can return to their peak; network survival and market cap recovery are two completely different matters.
Lies told three times, yet still falling for it! Patients are everywhere, but it’s hard to persuade those seeking death!!Last night, two sets of U.S. economic data were released, so let's briefly discuss the market changes.
Initial jobless claims came in at 206,000, slightly higher than expected, indicating a small increase in the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the past week. Employment is slightly weakening, which theoretically is a small positive for rate cuts.
But the highlight was the ISM Services PMI, which exploded to 55.4, significantly exceeding market expectations. The service sector is the main part of the U.S. economy, and this data shows that offline consumption and business remain strong. What’s more concerning is the prices component soaring to 72.6, indicating a sudden surge in inflationary pressure.
Once the data came out, the market immediately changed: U.S. Treasury yields surged, the dollar strengthened, and gold, U.S. tech stocks, and storage sectors (like SanDisk) all fell simultaneously. The market started to worry that the Federal Reserve might delay rate cuts.
However, no conclusions can be drawn yet. The real test is tonight at 8:30 PM with the U.S. nonfarm payroll data.
If tonight’s nonfarm payrolls disappoint significantly and employment data is poor, it could offset the negative impact from the ISM data. But there is a key variable here—wages.
The best-case scenario: nonfarm payrolls are poor, and wages do not rise. The market would interpret this as the economy gradually cooling down, inflation becoming hard to sustain, and tech, storage, and gold would likely see a considerable rebound.
The worst-case scenario: nonfarm employment declines, but wages continue to rise. This is contradictory—employment is weak but prices and wages remain firm. The rebound strength would be greatly reduced, with gains likely to spike and then fall back, causing volatility.Tonight at 8:30, the non-farm payrolls will be released.
This time, I actually think the market should focus not on whether the "data is good or bad," but on whether employment has started to show a continuous weakening.
The chart shows the market expects August non-farm payrolls to increase by 56,000, with the previous value still at -23,000; the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.1%, basically unchanged.
If the non-farm payrolls are just slightly better than expected, I don't necessarily think it's bearish for BTC. Because the core of market trading has gradually shifted from "whether the economy is strong or not" to "whether employment can still hold up."
Data too strong → rate cut expectations cool down, BTC under pressure.
Data too weak → recession concerns rise, BTC may not immediately rise either.
So tonight I’m more focused on one thing:
How U.S. Treasury yields move after the non-farm payrolls are announced.
If employment is weak but yields fall simultaneously, it might actually give risk assets some breathing room.
Tonight, I won’t guess the numbers; I’ll wait for the market to give the answer itself.
Will this non-farm payrolls report become the real turning point for the September market?
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
$BTC $ETH $USELESS Three days ago, I said those who sold below 77,000 would regret it two weeks later. I said the September rate hike would cause a double rise: if hiked, the bad news is fully priced in; if not, the good news is realized. $BTC directly surged to 82,000. I said I got half right, the other half hasn't happened yet.
The ADP employment data came out, showing private sector employment significantly below expectations. The market immediately flipped — a week ago there was a 66% chance of a rate hike, today it’s down to a 40% chance of no hike. Just one data point turned the entire market’s expectations upside down. BTC jumped from 77,000 to 82,000, 5,000 points, in three days.
Brothers, this is what I’ve been saying: the market trades on expectations, not facts. When expectations shift from "definitely hiking" to "possibly not hiking," the price jumps 5,000 points. So what if on September 16th they really don’t hike? You do the math on how much more it can rise.
And what if they do hike? It still goes up. Why? Because 40% of people already think there won’t be a hike; if it happens, the bad news is fully priced in, those who wanted to sell have already sold, and with no one left to sell, the price can only rise. Both scenarios lead to a rise; this is the current pattern.
Hold your base position tight, don’t make rash moves. Add more only if it breaks 82,500; if not, wait for a pullback. After September 16th, check where the price stands.
Don’t ask me how I know. On the day of the rate hike, come back and like this.
#BTC #RateHike #ADP #FOMC #TimeTravelerThe market changed overnight, with $BTC bouncing from 77,000 straight up to 81,000! $ETH reclaimed 2,500, and $SOL also rose above 105. But looking closely, this surge is not due to a fundamental reversal; it’s driven by sentiment recovery from news combined with short squeeze liquidations #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
Federal Reserve Governor Waller dropped a dovish hint, which was the most direct trigger. He said if inflation continues to cool, rates should remain unchanged, pushing the probability of a September rate hike down from 66% to around 50%. The market immediately amplified this signal—initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, adding signs of labor market cooling, triggering a chain of short liquidations, and prices were pushed up accordingly #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
However, from the market details, the quality of this rebound is not very high. After $BTC touched 82,000, it quickly fell back and is now hovering around 81,000, a typical spike-and-fall pattern. Although $ETH returned to 2,510, institutional wallets transferred 167,800 ETH to CEX over the past three days, about $400 million, so selling pressure between 2,430-2,450 has not disappeared. $SOL surged the most, but high-beta assets tend to rise fast and fall fast #加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验 $BTC saw the market collectively breathe a sigh of relief yesterday: US stocks and bonds both rose, gold briefly surged to 4470, and BTC also returned above 80,000. Essentially, what’s being traded isn’t positive news itself, but the fact that the September rate hike expectations have been pushed down again.
After Waller’s speech, the market’s bet on a September 16 rate hike is back to a 50-50 split—if inflation continues to cool, there’s no rush to hike; if data heats up again, hikes will still be necessary. So the key now isn’t guessing, but waiting for the data. Tonight’s non-farm payrolls are the first test: if employment continues to cool, the market will keep betting against a hike; if non-farm exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations will immediately rebound.
Gold around 4473 is the most direct target for rate trading, SNDK returned to 1550, and risk assets are all benefiting from this expectation gap. I’m temporarily bullish on BTC returning above 80,000, but my biggest fear is that before the data is out, funds have already priced in the good news. ETH is more elastic but also more sensitive to liquidity.
No rush to call a bull market yet. Tonight watch the non-farm employment, next Wednesday watch CPI. Also, SNDK below 1600 is just picking up money.September 4
Gold Morning
Core Influencing Factors Analysis
1. Federal Reserve Policy
Federal Reserve Governor Waller released more dovish remarks than expected, stating that if inflation continues to cool, the Fed tends to keep rates unchanged in September. The market's probability of a rate hike in September fell from 62% to around 48%. Coupled with ADP employment data significantly missing expectations, the US Dollar Index and 10-year Treasury yields both declined simultaneously. Gold prices rebounded strongly from the 4282 low point, showing an oversold recovery, surging nearly 2% overnight and reaching near the 4500 level.
Key Reminder: A decline in the rate hike probability does not mean a complete shift to easing. Waller did not close the door on rate hikes, emphasizing that if inflation rebounds again, he still supports rate hikes; US service sector inflation data remains resilient, and the high interest rate environment has not completely disappeared.
Tonight at 20:30, the Nonfarm Payroll report is the core event of the week. ADP is only a leading indicator. The strength or weakness of the Nonfarm employment data will directly rewrite rate hike expectations and determine the medium-term direction of gold. There is no major data in the early Asian session, with strong cautious sentiment among large funds, waiting for the Nonfarm data to land. Market volatility and shakeouts will increase. The current market condition remains characterized as: a technical recovery rebound after a big drop, not a trend reversal. Avoid blindly chasing longs.
Technical Analysis
Daily level: A large bullish candle formed at a low level, ending the continuous decline. Gold is trading in the 4470-4490 range. MACD green bars continue to shrink, bearish momentum weakens, RSI recovers upward from deep oversold.
Strategy: Short at 4490-4510, stop loss at 4525, target 4450-4420
Disclaimer: Investment involves risks, trade cautiously
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $XAU $BTC shares with everyone a set of historical data on the BTC pizza cycle, which will provide a clearer understanding of the current position after reading.
Reviewing the previous three complete cycles, the upward phases lasted 1142 days, 1068 days, and 1061 days respectively, followed by corresponding adjustment periods of 407 days, 363 days, and 376 days. It can be seen that the duration of each upward and adjustment phase follows a certain regularity.
Looking at the current cycle: the upward phase has lasted 1050 days, and the adjustment has been ongoing for 268 days so far. Comparing with historical time ratios and pattern evolution, the subjective judgment is that the market is most likely still in a major adjustment phase that started from the high of 126,296 USD, and the adjustment period may not be over yet.
Of course, it is important to emphasize that cycle statistics are only summaries based on historical data; past patterns do not guarantee future replication and are for reference only, not to be used as the sole basis for trading.Tonight's non-farm payrolls lean hawkish, bearish for Bitcoin #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
Here's my judgment on Bitcoin for reference
Straight to the conclusion: I think tonight's non-farm payrolls will most likely exceed expectations, bearish for Bitcoin.
Three reasons:
1. The three major leading indicators—ADP, ISM, and initial jobless claims—all lean hawkish; employment is stronger than the market expected.
2. July's negative growth was an abnormally low base; an August rebound is highly probable, possibly reaching 80,000-100,000, exceeding the 58,000 expectation.
3. Last night Bitcoin surged from 76,963 to 81,000, up 4,000 points—a typical "buy the rumor" move; when the data comes out, it will likely be a "sell the fact" scenario.
If the data exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate hike will surge above 70%, and Bitcoin may retrace to 79,200 or even 78,500, trapping those chasing highs.
Trading advice: Reduce positions and take profits before 20:30 if you are already in; if not yet in, don't chase the highs. Lower leverage to below 5x; no one can withstand a sharp move from the non-farm payrolls.
Of course, if non-farm payrolls fall below 30,000 again, that would be very bullish, but I think the probability is less than 20%.This round of UNI's rise is not an isolated event but the result of the resonance between on-chain real income and the token mechanism. It has increased by 38% over the past seven days, doubling from about $3 at the low point in August, breaking through $6.30 intraday on September 2, setting an eight-month record, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $1 billion and a market cap rising to $3.7 billion. The driving force first comes from the explosion of the Robinhood Chain, which reached a transaction volume of $17.99 billion in August; on September 1 alone, $1.95 billion was transacted, about $1.75 billion of which was completed through Uniswap pools, bringing continuous fee income to the protocol. The Fee Switch activated in V4 has shown significant effects, with the average daily protocol revenue rising from $118,000 to $318,000, while the ongoing burn mechanism brings the annualized burn rate close to 4% of the circulating supply, transforming the token from a pure governance tool into an asset with cash flow and deflationary properties. However, market sentiment shows clear divergence: the daily RSI is between 78 and 81, indicating severe overbought conditions; whale selling pressure is as high as 71%; funding rates have turned negative; the long-short ratio is 0.56; and the derivatives market is bearish. Short-term support lies between $5.84 and $5.78, with resistance near $6.37. If it fails to break out with volume, a technical correction is possible. Fundamentals are improving while short-term overheating coexists; strategically, it is advisable to wait for the price to digest the gains before making judgments. Risk warning: Crypto assets are highly volatile; please manage your positions rationally. $UNISharing $BTC pizza cycle statistics. The first three uptrends lasted 1142, 1068, and 1061 days respectively, with corresponding corrections of 407, 363, and 376 days. The fourth uptrend lasted 1050 days, with the current correction at 268 days. Comparing historical time ratios and patterns, subjectively judging, the market is still in a major correction phase that started from 126296. The cycle is only a historical summary and does not represent a guaranteed future repeat. #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 TRUMP token team address transferred TRUMP out 3 days ago, and now almost all TRUMP has been transferred into CEX:
10 million ($23.86 million) TRUMP, of which 8 million were transferred into Binance, and 2 million were transferred into OKX.Woke up this morning to check the market, and BTC quietly slipped back to 81,000. Last night, the US initial jobless claims data cooled off, and the market immediately cut the bet on a "September rate hike" from 63% to just over 50%. Waller added that "if inflation comes down, we will hold steady," which instantly eased the risk asset tension—BTC rose over 5% in 24h, ETH bounced back to 2500, XRP and SOL followed suit, with SOL recovering above 100. Shorts were liquidated by nearly 100 million USD within an hour. But honestly, this feels more like a "macro relief + crowded positions" correction rather than a new bull market signal. Looking at the capital flow, it's quite divided: BTC spot ETFs still had net inflows a few days ago (about 100 million USD in a single day), while ETH ETFs saw net outflows, breaking a streak of over ten days of inflows; the Fear & Greed Index is at 65 in the "greed" zone, but BTC dominance is nearly 60%, while the altcoin season index is just over 30—money recognizes Bitcoin as the anchor but is reluctant to accept altcoins as the story. Regulatory developments are even more interesting than the market: US SEC's Atkins wants to roll back exemptions for token fundraising (the startup 5 million and 75 million financing thresholds), the CLARITY Act is scheduled for Senate procedural voting on 9/15; Singapore MAS directly proposes stablecoins to have 100% reserves, segregated accounts, and no interest payments, aligning with Europe and the US; Wyoming issued an official stablecoin FRNT and even integrated Chainlink. Yesterday the market collectively breathed a sigh of relief: US stocks rose, US bonds rose, gold briefly surged near 4470, and BTC also reclaimed above 80000.
To put it simply, what everyone is really trading on is not some mysterious positive news, but the fact that the September rate hike expectations have been pushed down again.
After Waller spoke, the market's bet on a September 16 rate hike returned to about even odds. His message was simple: if inflation continues to fall, there's no need to rush to hike; but if the data heats up again, hikes will still be necessary.
So the key now is not to guess, but to wait for the data.
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are the first test.
If employment cools further, the market will definitely continue to bet on "no rate hike"; but if the nonfarm suddenly comes out very strong, the recently eased rate hike expectations could very well be pulled back.
Gold is now around 4473, which itself is the most direct safe-haven and interest rate trading target; on the US stock side, $SNDK has also returned near 1550, showing that risk assets are clearly reacting to this wave of expectation changes.
Looking at crypto, Bitcoin has reclaimed above 80,000, and I am still temporarily bullish, but the biggest risk here is that the data hasn't come out yet and funds have already pre-spent the positive expectations.
Ethereum is similar; it bounces more elastically than BTC but is also more dependent on liquidity.
So I’m not in a hurry to call the bull market back.
Tonight we first watch employment in the nonfarm data, then on September 11 we look at CPI.
But SanDisk below 1600 is just free money #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 $BTC 24h +5.41%, at $81,231, back above 81K. $ETH up 5.25% to 2,508, $SOL up 3.99% to 103.87, showing a broad-based rally.
But total market cap only rose 1.94%. By weighted inference, BTC alone should contribute 3.21 points, the four major coins combined 4.09 points, but only 1.94 was realized. The gap falls on the remaining 23.8% of market cap, shrinking overall by about 9%. Mainstream coins are absorbing liquidity, altcoins bleeding individually.
Top gainers tell the same story: MARSCOIN +93.78%, turnover 63%, $CHIP +34.39%, turnover 96%, all narrow speculative plays with market caps just over 100 million. On the contract side, $LA funding rate is -0.76%, shorts are paying, indicating weakness confirmation rather than reversal at this level.
BTC dominance is 59.37%. If it holds above 59% in the coming week, altcoin bleeding won’t stop; if it falls below 59% and total market cap growth surpasses BTC’s own gains, then money can be considered truly flowing into second-tier coins.$CORE deposit channel opens at 11 o'clock, will CORE see a violent rebound?
Currently, the community generally bets that once the deposit channel opens at 11, CORE will directly rebound violently to break even.
But we must face reality: the resumption of deposits only reopens the transfer channel and does not bring incremental buying pressure, so it cannot be considered a bullish catalyst.
During the previous deposit maintenance, a large amount of tokens accumulated on-chain: positions trapped by vulnerabilities, tokens redeemed from staking, and over-rewarded tokens—all stuck on-chain and unable to be sold.
Once the channel is opened, the floodgates will open. A large volume of tokens will flow into exchanges, and if holders collectively cash out, selling pressure will pour in instantly, causing the market to face downward pressure.
Of course, a decline is not the only possibility.
If the amount of tokens transferred on-chain to exchanges is small and most people choose to hold, after the shoe drops, sentiment recovery could trigger a pulse rebound.
There is no predetermined script for the market.
Whether it rebounds or crashes entirely depends on the actual scale of tokens transferred on-chain and the buying strength in the secondary market.
Do not place all your hopes of breaking even on the deposit channel opening. Liquidity recovery does not equal a trend reversal; betting unilaterally on a rise or fall is a high-risk gamble. $CRCL USD stablecoins are rewriting cross-border payments, stop focusing only on bank wire transfers
Cross-border payments are quietly changing: Are stablecoins truly an innovation or just a beautiful illusion?
In the past, when we talked about "cross-border payments," what usually came to mind were banks, wire transfers, and bank cards.
A sum of money moving from one country to another might have to pass through several institutions. There are many procedures, and the time is not necessarily fast. In recent years, a new concept has been increasingly discussed: stablecoins. What exactly makes them special? Why do some believe they could change global payments?
First, let's understand: what is a stablecoin? Simply put, a stablecoin is a type of digital asset that attempts to keep its price relatively stable. The most common method is to peg it to a fiat currency.
For example: 1 USDT is usually traded on the market close to the value of 1 US dollar. So unlike Bitcoin, whose price can fluctuate wildly every day, causing heart-stopping ups and downs.
Many people’s eyes are immediately caught by a set of data when they first see stablecoins: traditional cross-border wire transfers take at least half a day, often three to five business days, and stop completely during weekends and holidays. Multiple intermediary banks charge fees at each step, and remittance fees of tens of dollars are common. Stablecoin transfers can be confirmed in minutes or even seconds, operate 24/7 all year round with no bank closing hours or holiday shutdowns, and on-chain fees are sometimes negligible.
Looking only at speed and cost, this is almost a dimensionality reduction strike. Thus, a narrative began circulating in the market: the decades-old SWIFT system is about to be phased out, and stablecoins will take the baton to reshape the global cross-border payment landscape.
But the truth is far more complex than imagined.
Let's break down why traditional cross-border payments are slow. The slowness is not just due to technical transmission speed. What really blocks the flow of funds is a whole chain of identity verification, anti-money laundering, foreign exchange controls of various countries, and interbank reconciliation and settlement rules. Money is not just a string of data; every cross-border transaction involves the financial sovereignty and regulatory bottom lines of different countries.
Stablecoins skip many intermediary banks, but only the technical channels—they do not bypass the legal regulations of each country.
This is the cognitive pitfall most people fall into: thinking that as long as on-chain transfer speed is fast enough, global trade and personal remittances can be truly unlocked. But on-chain completion is only the first step. Ultimately, the money still needs to land, be exchanged into local fiat currency, and enter real-world circulation. The exchange step still faces banks, regulators, foreign exchange policies, and KYC identity checks.
A straightforward example: you use stablecoins to transfer from domestic to overseas accounts, and it arrives on-chain in minutes. But if you want to convert stablecoins into local currency and withdraw to a bank card, whether you can exchange, the amount limit, and compliance all depend on local policies. The most troublesome and risky part of the chain is precisely the "last mile" where on-chain assets return to real fiat currency.
Let's look deeper into the underlying nature of stablecoins. The largest stablecoins on the market today, USDT and USDC, are essentially pegged to the US dollar, with reserve assets mostly in US Treasury bonds. This means stablecoins are not just neutral payment tools. They are a new channel for extending US dollar credit outward. As more countries, merchants, and ordinary people get used to using dollar stablecoins for cross-border settlement, it invisibly accelerates the "on-chain dollarization" of some markets. This is no longer just a technical issue but a global battle for monetary discourse power.
Therefore, the global attitude toward stablecoins is clearly divided into several paths. The US is busy advancing stablecoin legislation to compete for rule-making power; Hong Kong has introduced stablecoin regulations and opened licensed issuance channels; more countries remain cautious, studying the technology while firmly guarding regulatory red lines to prevent capital flight, money laundering, and disruption of foreign exchange order.
Do not jump to simple conclusions: stablecoins will either overturn traditional finance or are purely a bubble.
A more objective trend is: stablecoins will not directly eliminate banks and SWIFT, but they will become a brand-new tool in the global cross-border payment toolbox. In emerging markets where traditional bank branches are weak and cross-border channels are poor, stablecoins can fill some gaps; in cross-border e-commerce, small trade, and high-frequency fund turnover scenarios, compliant stablecoins can greatly improve fund turnover efficiency.
The more likely future scenario is not a life-or-death battle between old and new systems, but coexistence and integration. Traditional financial institutions and payment giants are actively researching and launching their own compliant stablecoins, blockchain networks serve as underlying channels, regulators build fences, and multiple parties complement each other to jointly build a new generation of cross-border settlement networks.
Technology can always iterate quickly, but the fundamental logic of finance has remained unchanged for millennia: speed is only superficial; credit, regulation, sovereignty, and liquidity are the core foundations determining whether a payment method can last. Stablecoins have opened a new door, but there is still a long way to go before truly reconstructing global payments.Will a major crash in $BTC happen? This question is more worth considering than guessing a rebound.
Currently, $77,000 is holding sideways, and failing to break above $80,000 already shows the bulls lack confidence. The real pressure comes from the macro side: the 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to 4.81%, nearing a three-year high, with over a 60% chance of a rate hike in September. Oil prices are even more aggressive; the US-Iran conflict is pushing Brent crude up to $94, inflation expectations can't be suppressed, so don't even think about rate cuts.
But calling for a crash outright is a bit premature. There are no extreme leverage liquidation signals on-chain yet; it looks more like the market is waiting for a trigger.
The real risk lies in a sudden liquidity tightening, not a single candlestick. If $80,000 can't hold and $77,000 breaks again, risks will accelerate. If even $75,000 can't hold, then discussing a major crash might no longer be just scaring ourselves. $BTC #ETF just finished buying, giant whale dumps $300 million, BTC longs and shorts both hit
These days $BTC is moving like it's constipated, neither going up nor down. Looking on-chain makes it clear—an ancient giant whale address just broke down 12,470 BTC, worth about $320 million, gradually pouring them into Binance and OKX. In the past 72 hours, 5,800 BTC have already been deposited, with 6,670 BTC left in the wallet waiting to be sold. The main force just took a breather, and the whale strikes again—who can withstand this?
What's worse is the timing is so annoying. Last week, the spot ETF just had a net inflow of $470 million, and the market was still hoping institutions would support the bottom, but then the whale smashed it right back. On-chain tracking shows this batch of BTC was aggregated from multiple OTC channels in 2019. The $300 million selling pressure is overwhelming, and the buying side is like trying to block a flood with a spoon. The fact it can hold around 58,000 is pure luck.
Macro factors add fuel to the fire. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model raised the Q3 forecast to 5.6%, the economy is ridiculously strong, and the Fed has no reason to ease. The CME FedWatch shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in November has risen to 62%, nearly 20 points higher than last week.
$BTC longs are now in a worse position than ETH. ETH at least has staking rates to support it, BTC is purely holding on by sentiment. The whale still hasn't sold the remaining 6,670 BTC, and the September nonfarm payroll data is looming—if employment exceeds expectations again, rate hike expectations will trigger a second wave of selling.日韩股市开盘走高：软银大涨5.8%，SK海力士、三星电子涨超2% 9月4日日韩股市开盘上涨，日经225指数开盘涨0.27%，软银大涨5.8%，铠侠涨0.70%；韩国KOSPI指数开盘涨1.2%，SK海力士、三星电子均涨超2%，AI与半导体存储板块成为领涨主力。 9月4日开盘，日韩股市同步走高。日经225指数开盘上涨0.27%，其中软银集团大涨5.8%，铠侠上涨0.70%；韩国KOSPI指数开盘上涨1.2%，SK海力士与三星电子均涨超2%。 从领涨结构看，本轮上涨明显由AI与半导体存储板块主导。软银集团是全球最激进的AI投资方之一，重仓OpenAI等核心AI资产，并深度参与超大规模算力投资计划，其股价弹性常被视为市场对AI叙事情绪的晴雨表，5.8%的单日开盘涨幅在大型权重股中极为罕见。SK海力士与三星电子则是HBM（高带宽存储）双寡头，是英伟达AI加速器的主要存储供应商；铠侠为NAND闪存主要厂商。存储板块集体走强，通常反映市场对AI算力带动存储需求、以及存储价格周期上行的预期升温。 值得注意的是，韩国KOSPI开盘涨幅达1.2%，明显高于日经225的0.27%，显示本轮行情的核心驱动集$BTC technicals are brewing a signal for a trend change. The 50-day moving average is approaching a crossover above the 200-day moving average; if the golden cross pattern materializes, the medium-term trend tends to warm up. USDT market dominance is weakening simultaneously, with some funds flowing back from stablecoins into crypto assets, causing technicals and capital flows to start resonating bullishly.
On the macro front, Arthur Hayes mentioned that Japan's GPIF adjusting its allocation could release a new round of liquidity, but this remains at the expectation stage for now. The real direction is still determined by interest rates and the actual cost of the dollar; liquidity easing has not yet been substantively transmitted.
Institutional channels are also expanding. Standard Chartered Bank has extended BTC/ETH spot trading from the UK to the UAE, making compliant buying channels increasingly smoother. Willy Woo proposed a new view: BTC's cycle might extend from 4 years to 6-8 years. After ETFs and institutional entry, the market rhythm no longer solely depends on the halving; volatility is slower but more sustained.
However, the golden cross is a lagging indicator, and the decline in USDT market dominance could also be a short-term behavior. BTC will not immediately break out because of these signals. Only if spot buying continues to follow through and the price stabilizes again in the 80,000-83,300 range will the new trend be truly confirmed.
Medium- to long-term improvements are accumulating, but a breakthrough still needs one more push, waiting for real money confirmation. $BTC #美国初请失业金人数升至20 6,000: Is BTC about to take off? The real test is tonight. To conclude: this data is positive for BTC in the short term, but it's far from the level of "stable market conditions." The latest initial jobless claims in the US rose to 206,000, higher than the market expectation of 205,000, with the previous value revised to 204,000. This indicates a slight cooling in the job market, but the number of applicants remains low, and there are no obvious signs of a recession in the US economy for now. Why must the crypto world pay attention? First, cooling employment may lower expectations for further Fed rate hikes. If US Treasury yields and the dollar weaken accordingly, liquid assets like BTC and ETH usually find it easier to receive funding. Second, this time there are only 1,000 more than expected, which is very limited. It can only be considered a "minor positive factor," insufficient to push BTC through key resistance levels on its own. Third, the real direction will be determined by the US nonfarm payroll report to be released tonight at 20:30: If employment is significantly below expectations, rate hike expectations may continue to decline, BTC may test upwards, and highly volatile assets like ETH and SOL may be more elastic. If the data is much stronger than expected, US Treasury yields may rise again, and the crypto market should be wary of price spikes and pullbacks. If employment deteriorates too quickly, the market could shift from "liquidity positive" to "recession fear." Therefore, 206,000 is not a trigger, but more like a fuse. Tonight's nonfarm payroll data may determine the true direction of BTC's next rally. You believe tonight will be "driven by weak employment."4. The real "big money" has long entered the market
Behind the surge is the continuous inflow of institutional funds.
In August, the US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of about $3.5 billion, marking the largest single-month inflow in over a year. Bitcoin rose about 25% in August, achieving the strongest August performance in 17 years.
This is not retail FOMO; this is Wall Street allocation.
Galaxy Digital's head of research pointed out that the $3.54 billion net inflow in August signifies that institutional participation has reactivated after a prolonged downturn.
More importantly: In August, the US Treasury announced that the single transaction limit for long-term Treasury liquidity repos was raised from $2 billion to $4 billion, doubling the amount. The market interprets this as a disguised easing.
A weaker dollar, falling long-term yields, and improved liquidity—Bitcoin is the sharpest spear in this round of macro trading. $BTC $ETH $SOL #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温