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$SPCX FOMO traders are starting to get conflicted. It pushed from 140.50 to 152.87, up nearly $12, but it just can't break through 152.87. Bernstein said Louisiana's Starship base launches 30 times a day, and SpaceX's fundamentals are indeed strengthening. But with SPCX's contract structure, despite continuous positive news, the price just won't move up—every time it nears 150, someone sells off. SAR is at 142.31, EMA21 at 145.09, all have been surpassed, J value is 83.46, momentum is weakening. At this point, those chasing are betting that 152.87 isn't the top, while holders are hesitating whether to take partial profits near 150. SpaceX is a good company, but unlocking expectations have been weighing it down. If even news like launching 30 times a day can't push the price, the market might really be waiting for something more certain.
Do you think it can hold above 150 this time? 🫡There is a large amount of market activity every day, but not all of it belongs to you. One of the biggest misconceptions many traders have is thinking that whenever there is a significant price movement, they must participate. However, the more complex the market, the easier it is to trigger wrong judgments. Truly mature individuals allow themselves to say "I don't understand." Not understanding is not shameful; forcing participation is dangerous. Just like a person wouldn't enter an industry they completely don't understand just because they see others making money, trading should also have its own limits of capability. Only trading what you understand does not mean fewer opportunities, but rather that every trade is clearer about the risks you are taking. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 $ZEC Recently, many people are wondering: why did $UNI suddenly surge? The essence of a coin rising is simple—buy orders > sell orders. UNI just hit the right spot this time. UNI hit three resonance points this round; let me break them down one by one. The first engine: On-chain activity heats up, protocol revenue soars. I don't need to say much about the current on-chain market status, right? The more active the trading, the more fees UNI, as the largest DEX liquidity hub, collects. Latest data: 24-hour protocol fees reached $13 million, ranking second among all protocols, only behind Tether. But Tether earns by using users' funds to buy government bonds and profit from the interest spread—in other words, a traditional financial institution's approach. Excluding Tether, UNI is the top money magnet among all crypto protocols, bar none. Traffic comes in, toll fees are collected, and the protocol's account balance grows—this is the first layer of logic. The second engine: converting revenue to cash, buybacks ramp up. The protocol makes money, how does it reflect on the coin price? Buyback and burn. Recently, UNI's daily burn volume hit over 100,000 tokens, with a burn value of about $600,000. This data was unseen before. Buying 100,000 tokens daily from the market and burning them—supply decreases, demand stays the same or even increases, so the price naturally goes up. This is the second layer of logic. The third engine: price comparison effect, funds start scooping up. This might be the most critical. The other two recognized “money printers”—$PUMP and $HYPE—have already multiplied several times from their previous lows.MEME token surged then pulled back, Robinhood chain's siphoning effect weakened, with clear rebounds in Meme coins like CASHCAT and PONS. On September 4, according to GMGN market data, the MEME token, which once had a single-day market cap exceeding 100 million, noticeably corrected alongside the pre-market price drop of AMC stock in the US market, currently reported at about $91.13 million. After the weakening of its capital diversion effect, mainstream Meme coins on the Robinhood chain rebounded significantly: CASHCAT's market cap reported at $284 million, up 6.34% in the past hour; PONS market cap surpassed $740 million, hitting a new all-time high, up 10.19% in the past hour. According to GMGN market data, the MEME token became the focus of the Meme market today, with a single-day market cap breaking $100 million. Its hype was linked to the pre-market price trend of AMC stock. As AMC's pre-market price fell, MEME's price also corrected significantly, with market cap dropping to about $91.13 million, indicating that the token's rise heavily depends on short-term sentiment and cross-market narrative hype, lacking sustained capital support. There is a typical capital diversion phenomenon in the Meme market: when a hot token rapidly rises, it quickly draws liquidity and user attention on-chain, creating a siphoning effect on other coins; once the hype cools down, capital quickly rotates back to previously suppressed targets. After this MEME correction, mainstream Meme coins within the Robinhood chain ecosystem quickly rebounded: CASHCAT's market cap recovered to $284 million, up nearly 1 hour #沃勒: August inflation will determine whether there will be a rate hike in September Tonight at 20:30, the US August non-farm payroll data will be released, with the market expecting an increase of 56,000 jobs. My judgment is: leaning towards a mild positive, but beware of a rise followed by a fall. My core judgment logic The crypto market has already priced in some of the benefits of cooling rate hike expectations, with $BTC standing above 81,000 and $ETH approaching 2,500 USD. Considering the previous ADP small non-farm data surprise, the probability of weak non-farm data tonight is high. As long as the data does not significantly exceed expectations, rate hike expectations will further cool, supporting the market. Three scenario simulations Data mildly weak (high probability): This is the market's most preferred "soft landing" scenario. After BTC stabilizes above 80,000, it can try to go long accordingly, with the upper target at the 82,000 resistance level. Data far exceeds expectations: Rate hike expectations rise, the US dollar strengthens, if BTC falls below 80,000, a light short position can be tried, with the downside target at 78,000. Data extremely weak: Triggers recession panic, funds collectively sell off risk assets, do not blindly bottom fish, prioritize watching. Risk control reminder Volatility will surge significantly before and after the non-farm data release, with BTC short-term fluctuations often exceeding 3%-5%. Absolutely do not heavily bet on a single direction, high leverage must reduce positions in advance and set stop losses to avoid flash crashes and liquidation. The above is only personal trading thoughts and does not constitute investment advice; please be cautious when entering the market. It's over
$ETH No more attachment, originally thought that if tonight's non-farm payroll expectations were poor, the market might continue to lower the September rate hike expectations, but currently the market consensus is too unified. It's very likely the data will indeed be weak, then there will be a spike followed by a sharp drop. Additionally, the US House of Representatives canceled two weeks of meetings in September, which is very important for the crypto space (the CLARITY Act). The probability of it passing in 2026 is now very slim. The House will meet again only after the midterm elections in November, by which time the current president will most likely be a lame-duck president facing many constraints. Therefore, I am not optimistic about the bull market that many bloggers are talking about. Currently, there are no signs of a bull market coming. On the 17th of this month is the Federal Reserve meeting, and on the 18th is the Bank of Japan's rate decision. The Bank of Japan's rate hike is basically a done deal, whether it's a 25 basis point or a 50 basis point increase. For the crypto market, which is highly liquid, there will be no cheap money and a severe liquidity drain. So, the crypto market is very likely to experience a major drop after mid-September. Recording this to see if it plays out as I observe $$SPCX rocket station above 150!
The long-term bullish news for the rocket surge is that SpaceX plans to invest about $100 billion to build a new Starbase launch site. Last night it directly broke through to 152 with volume, currently fluctuating around 150. The follow-up depends on the capital's ability to support; if there is no capital support at 150, it will basically dip. Yesterday, the US stock market opening drove a direct rise, with turnover rate increasing from the previous 0.65% to 1.64%, indicating that market enthusiasm is gradually increasing. A surge will face high-level profit-taking, mainly depending on whether subsequent capital support is strong and whether trading volume expands simultaneously.
There are still several batches of shares to be unlocked later. Steel Brother will continue to monitor the flow of on-chain funds and stock market performance, and will provide updates accordingly.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ $BTC $ETH 充满博弈的周五——非农头阵，美日利差平仓作为潜在风险，原油价格承担尾部波动风险！ 今晚将会迎来本周最重要也是最充满博弈的一天，由于昨日沃勒的讲话引导市场削弱了9月加息预期，目前9月加息加息52.4%，属于关键博弈点 今晚首要看点就是非农数据 沃勒对于通胀的乐观引导市场削弱了9月加息概率，那么市场押注今晚的非农数据是否可以进一步将9月加息概率进一步削弱 这里需要注意，就业并不是越弱越好 a，失业率4.1%，就业增长5-10万属于温和增长，如果工资也出现温和增长，不会削弱9月加息概率反而会小幅度增加 b，失业率≥4.1%，就业增长弱于2.5万或者更低，工资增长放缓，虽然削弱了9月加息概率，但是会引发就业失速风险，结合本周轻滞胀组合，意味着市场会提前预期衰退而担忧，所以不算是好数据 c，失业率4.1%，就业增长高于10万，属于就业市场保持火热，如果工资增长，反而会增加9月加息概率。 所以，以目前的情况来看，既不触发风险，又能削弱加息概率的最佳组合就是失业率4.2%，就业增长2-5万，工资同比2.8%-3.0%，环比≤0.2% 日元升值，加息预期增强，美元9月加息概率的削弱反而会制造流动性风险I calmly accept the feeling of stable returns brought to me by entering and exiting positions according to signals, which makes me feel very secure,
rather than craving a trade that can immediately catch the trigger point and make a big profit at once, which does not give me a sense of security.
The former is a complete acceptance of the uncertainty in the market and a reflection of the limitations of human cognition,
making me understand the importance of capital management and realize the essence of trading to make big profits and small losses,
while the latter only intensifies my arrogance of omnipotence and obsession with market certainty, leading to frequent heavy positions and self-destruction.
$BTC $ETH #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ The most worth discussing topic today, I think, is not the non-farm payrolls
Nor is it some meme coin skyrocketing, but rather OKX bringing $OPENAI, Anthropic, and Moonshot equity tokens onto contracts. Behind this lies a major trend: the wall between crypto and the US stock market is quietly being chipped away.
Many people have underestimated the significance of this. Previously, if you wanted to bet on AI giants, you either had to buy indirect plays like Nvidia or participate in private placements in the primary market, which ordinary people simply couldn't access.
Now OKX directly offers OPENAIUSDT, ANTHROPICUSDT, MOONSHOTUSDT, effectively opening a window for crypto players to bet on AI company valuations using USDT. Just think about how many people who envy Nvidia but fear chasing highs can now express their optimism about OpenAI on a familiar interface. The potential for incremental capital inflow is considerable.
But why do I say most people haven't noticed the real risk? These equity tokens are synthetic assets; their prices track primary market valuations and sentiment, not actual stocks. They have shallow liquidity, and pricing power lies with market makers and arbitrageurs. If regulators one day declare these products illegal, they could be delisted instantly, leaving you no room to argue.
AI assetization will be the sexiest new narrative in the second half of the year. OKX has taken the lead, and most other exchanges will likely follow. There's great short-term speculative value, but don't treat these as real equity for long-term holding. The real mainstay remains solid hard assets with earnings like Nvidia and SanDisk. Opening this window is a good thing, but don't stick your head out too far—the wind is strong.Nonfarm Preview: Multiple Signals Point to a High Probability of Weak Data
⚠️ Macro analysis only, not investment advice
This round of nonfarm payrolls is highly likely to fall below market expectations, with multiple leading signals collectively bearish.
ADP small nonfarm data has significantly cooled, private employment momentum continues to slow, combined with continuous downward revisions of previous employment data, clearly indicating a weakening U.S. labor market.
Macroeconomic easing expectations are heating up across the board: veteran hawk Waller has turned dovish, acknowledging inflation cooling and leaning toward pausing rate hikes. Meanwhile, both Trump and Vance have publicly pressured the Federal Reserve to cut rates, maximizing political easing demands. Additionally, U.S. Treasury repo operations are supporting liquidity, creating a friendly environment for risk assets overall.
If this nonfarm data weakens and wages fall back, it will fully confirm the cooling employment trend, further suppress rate hike expectations, and boost rate cut sentiment. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will face downward pressure, benefiting stocks, gold, crypto, and other risk assets.
Only a small probability of a hot nonfarm report would reverse easing expectations; overall, the market favors weaker data. Volatility during the nonfarm night will be intense, so strict risk control and waiting for structural confirmation are essential.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #长端美债收益率维持高位，债务压力升温 #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 $BTC $ETH $TRUMP Significant capital inflow into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. On September 3, these products recorded a net inflow of $730.9 million, marking the largest single-day increase since mid-January. Stimulated by capital inflows, Bitcoin rebounded simultaneously, pushing the total net assets of related ETFs to $103.34 billion, approximately 6.32% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization. BlackRock leads in capital attraction • IBIT (BlackRock): Attracted $454 million, firmly holding the position as the main source of inflows • ARKB (Ark): Net inflow of $138 million • FBTC (Fidelity): Net inflow of about $74 million • Slight outflows: VanEck and WisdomTree products combined outflowed nearly $25 million Spot buying supports the rebound Previously, the market experienced a brief redemption (outflow of $236 million on September 1), but quickly recovered thereafter. Institutional analysis indicates that this round of Bitcoin's rise was mainly driven by spot buying rather than leveraged liquidations; during this period, futures open interest declined, indicating a relatively healthy market structure. Currently, the cumulative net inflow of such ETFs has increased to $55.44 billion, and institutions' demand for allocating crypto assets through compliant channels remains strong. $BTC $ETH #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 View for the evening of September 4th
Overnight, the Fed's dovish remarks cooled rate hike expectations, driving a sharp rebound in gold prices. Today's market is overall cautious and volatile, with all focus on the major non-farm payroll data tonight.
Geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to provide safe-haven support, but before the data release, there is intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with the market mainly in a wait-and-see repair mode. The non-farm payrolls will directly determine the short-term direction of gold's rise or fall.
After the rebound, gold prices faced resistance at high levels and pulled back, currently consolidating in a range during the evening. The four-hour bullish repair structure remains intact, but short-term upward momentum is slowing.
Resistance above is at 4500-4510, with key support below at 4430-4450. This is currently a consolidation phase after the rebound; no chasing gains or guessing a one-sided move before the data.
Reference: Treat as range-bound before data
Buy on dips at 4430-4450, target 4490-4510; if the rally fails to break resistance, short on pullbacks $XAU After thoroughly analyzing the details of the CLARITY Act, my illusions about compliance have been completely shattered.
Everyone in the community is counting down to the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act on September 15. Many think that compliance implementation and big players entering the market are huge positives. I thought so too at first, until I carefully examined the core provisions of the draft.
The draft requires token issuers to complete transparent disclosure, mandates that over 85% of assets must be custodied by licensed trust institutions within the United States, and strictly prohibits unregistered front-end interfaces from charging any transaction fees. This is not issuing a birth certificate for the industry; it is a targeted purge against native on-chain teams.
Wall Street can spend tens of millions of dollars annually on legal fees without batting an eye; trust custody is just moving money from one pocket to another. But for a DeFi development team of about ten people, exorbitant compliance consultant fees and licensing costs can directly drain the project’s treasury, and the front-end ban instantly cuts off the decentralized protocol’s ability to self-sustain.
As Arthur Hayes said, the intention of this framework is to have Wall Street fully take over the wealth creation channels into their own game. When the threshold is so high that only traditional giants can afford to play, retail investors will have to pay through layers of commissions at counters. The window for ordinary people to participate in early-stage dividends through information asymmetry and on-chain liquidity is being permanently sealed off.
After September 15, do you think the crypto space will become better or more expensive?
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 83,000 still remains a watershed, is $BTC this time a real breakout or another bull trap?
$BTC has returned to $80,000, but the market has not formed a consensus expectation.
The bearish side believes that the short consolidation of just over ten days is insufficient to hold steady between 83,000 and 86,000, and the next step will most likely be a pullback to 70,000 to 72,000 to confirm support.
The bullish side regards 76,000 as the lifeline; as long as it does not break, 86,000 is the real resistance level, and holding it could lead to an advance to 100,000.
The funding situation is also contradictory.
Recently, the US spot Bitcoin ETF once saw a net outflow of over $200 million in a single day, ending the previous consecutive days of inflows, with the total scale falling below $100 billion.
However, there are still institutional buyers with ample funds who have stated they will continue to increase their BTC holdings.
There are already many US crypto ETFs, but funds are highly concentrated in one or two leading products, accounting for nearly 40%, with mature institutional channels and concentrated risks.
Short-term trading volume has clearly increased, with more funds flowing into high-volatility targets, indicating a rise in risk appetite, but mainly speculative rather than allocative.
Right now, it is not simply a bull vs. bear battle, but a simultaneous occurrence of long-term buying and short-term profit-taking.
If BTC can stand firm with volume between 83,000 and 86,000, 100,000 may not be far away.
If ETF funds continue to weaken, 70,000 to 72,000 may be the next test. CAPITAL IS RETURNING — BUT NOT EQUALLY
Crypto ETF flows are showing clear divergence:
• $BTC → -$236.46M
• $ETH → +$10.95M
• $SOL → +$10.19M
• $XRP → +$14.38M
On September 1, $BTC ETFs recorded significant outflows, while $ETH, $SOL and $XRP continued attracting capital.
This is not confirmation of a full altseason.
But it shows capital is becoming more selective.
The bigger question now:
Where will the next wave of capital flow?
$SOL
$ZEC
#BTCGoldRatioHigh Last night, the Bitcoin market took off, with Bitcoin rising up to 5%, and Ethereum also up by 5%. The main reason is probably clear to everyone: a massive increase in ETF inflows. Bitcoin inflows reached 900 million, the highest in nearly 30 days, while Ethereum inflows were 140 million. Although Ethereum's inflows weren't as high as in previous days, the amount was still significant. So far, this still fits the bull market logic where Bitcoin rises first, and it aligns with what we said earlier that ETFs are the accelerators for this round. The market will definitely perform more aggressively than before, so don't cling to outdated ideas! If anyone still doesn't see this as a bull market and thinks it's just a rebound, they will ultimately miss out on this bull run. Actually, I didn't expect yesterday's surge to come so quickly. On September 1st, I noticed that the volatility in the US stock market had weakened significantly, showing signs of a potential reversal. I was bullish afterward but didn't expect the market to move so fast. Yesterday, the US stock market also surged 1.6%. I saw many people saying that some were betting early on a big Q4 rally in US stocks, so they jumped in ahead of time, which might be possible. Looking back now at my February article "Bitcoin's 5 Consecutive Monthly Declines? The Last Chance for Ordinary People to Turn Around?", I used statistical methods to analyze historical cases of 5 consecutive monthly declines. When this happens, historically, it is either a bottom or a secondary bottom. The lowest point then was 60,000, and after half a year, the lower point was 57,000, not a big difference. So, statistical analysis combined with a longer time frame is quite reliable, and not following the crowd has kept me on board. Let me share something funny next.🚨 Powell backed off, the rate hike probability collapsed!
He just said if inflation continues to improve in August, he supports no rate hike; only if it worsens will there be a hike. Clearly more dovish than July!
Result: rate hike probability dropped from 70% to just over 50%, BTC/ETH responded with a rally.
⚠️ But don’t celebrate too early, it’s still fifty-fifty now!
The critical moment depends on two data points:
👉 Tonight’s big Nonfarm Payrolls
👉 Next Friday’s CPI
Good data → no rate hike → keep flying; bad data → rate hike expectations reignite → beware of a pullback.
Are you going long or short tonight?
#BTC #ETH #FederalReserve #NonfarmPayrolls #CPI
$BTC $ETH Nonfarm payrolls in August increased by 41,000, below the expected 53,000, with the previous figure revised down from -23,000 to -47,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, versus an expected 4.1% and a prior 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month-over-month (expected 0.3%) and 3.0% year-over-year (expected 3.1%). The data is broadly weaker than expected, coupled with a significant downward revision to the previous figure, indicating the labor market is cooling more than anticipated. The market reaction was immediate: CME interest rate futures show the probability of a September rate hike dropped sharply from about 16% before the data release to 7%. Expectations for the first rate cut moved forward from December to November, with the number of cuts this year increasing from one to two. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 6 basis points to 4.567%, and the US dollar index dropped from 99.72 to 99.21. As for the market: BTC is currently at $81,308, up 4.2% in 24 hours. The intraday high reached $82,320, with a low of $77,905. The early morning rally from $76,000 has already priced in some of the positive news. ETH pulled up to around $2,505, with SOL, DOGE, and ADA all strengthening, and the Fear & Greed Index surged to 74, entering the greed zone. However, one detail to note — in the past 24 hours, about $2.01 billion in liquidations occurred across the network, with short liquidations accounting for $1.7 billion, over 80% of the total. This rally is largely driven by short squeeze liquidations rather than significant new capital inflows. Tonight's rise already carries some sense of "good news fully priced in" — the data is indeed weak, but expectations were already factored in during the early morning. 82,000 A surge does not equate to a signal to chase the high.
Rapid rallies are the easiest to breed FOMO emotions; the more frenzied the market, the more disciplined the trading must be.
I maintain my original position framework: core base positions in $BTC and $ETH; flexible positions in $SOL and $XRP; small positions to speculate on $KAITO and $BEAT.
I don’t chase every bullish candle or obsess over capturing every short-term fluctuation. The primary task is risk management, keeping sufficient cash on hand, and patiently waiting for opportunities with a better risk-reward ratio.
The biggest variable right now is tonight’s 8:30 PM Non-Farm Payrolls.
This employment data largely determines whether BTC can truly turn the 80,000 level into support or if it’s just another false breakout lure.
This recent surge to around 81,000 was driven by the Fed’s dovish remarks, which pushed U.S. Treasury yields down and cooled rate hike expectations.
If Non-Farm Payrolls show significant strength, yields will rebound, and BTC will come under pressure again; a mild weakening gives a chance to hold above 80,000; but if employment collapses sharply, recession fears will hit, and crypto risk assets won’t withstand the sell-off.
The ideal scenario: employment cools slowly, but the economy does not stall.
Tonight’s big test will determine whether positions profit massively with the trend or suffer passively.
What do you think the outcome will be?
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 On September 3, 2026, stablecoins once again stood before traditional finance. Reuters reported that the GENIUS Act passed in the US in 2025 has established federal rules for "payment stablecoins"; on the same day, Revolut, with 80 million customers, received conditional approval for a nationwide banking license in the US and plans to incorporate stablecoins into future products. The truly noteworthy changes are happening behind the scenes. Visa disclosed that its stablecoin settlement annualized volume rose from $3.5 billion at the end of November 2025 to about $7 billion in March 2026. Stripe completed the acquisition of stablecoin infrastructure company Bridge in 2025, integrating collection, balances, issuance, exchange, and global payments into its enterprise interface. Stablecoins are moving beyond purely exchange scenarios into merchant collections, corporate treasury, cross-border payroll, and supplier settlements. The next ticket may belong to issuers or be taken by infrastructure platforms that control access, compliance, and liquidity. Moving from a medium of exchange to a payment track The early demand for stablecoins came from the crypto market. Traders needed an on-chain asset that could move quickly between different platforms and was priced close to the US dollar. USDT appeared in 2014, USDC launched in 2018, and gradually became important underlying assets for trading, lending, and on-chain collateral. The difference from card networks is that funds and information can be transferred simultaneously on the blockchain, operating 24/7 and callable by programs. Traditional cross-border payments usually involve remittance banks, agents#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
See a whale transfer and immediately panic sell? The losses I've suffered tell you: it only serves as an "assist" signal.
I also got caught in the early days: a popup said "8000 BTC transferred into Binance," I instantly liquidated, only for it to pump 8% the next day. Later I understood—single transfers have a pitifully low R².
My firm stance:
No opening position signals, only filters.
If you really want to act, you need the "four-piece set" resonance:
• Flow: moving into exchange is bearish / withdrawing is bullish, and not internal cold wallet to cold wallet transfers
• Net flow: look at 24h cumulative, not single transfers
• Price: exactly at support/resistance, not castles in the air
• Contracts: OI rising + funding rate anomaly + liquidation cluster approaching
Only when all four align do I count the whale in decision-making; otherwise, ignore it.
Three most common fake moves:
① Exchange hot wallet to cold wallet (internal rebalancing)
② WBTC minting/burning (not buying or selling)
③ Old whales moving low-cost coins around, not dumping
Practical rhythm:
Alert → wait for 1–2 candles confirmation → enter if pullback holds.
Especially don’t use transfers as triggers for leveraged trades.
Whales don’t make you rich; they remind you "there are big fish in the water."$BTC and $ETH are keeping both sides uncomfortable.
I was leaning short, but the market still hasn’t given a clean confirmation.
$ETH remains resilient. $BTC keeps testing conviction.
That’s where patience matters more than prediction.#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC Looking at regulation on September 4th, what’s truly worth noting is not another token classification, but the U.S. securities "transfer" infrastructure starting to change rules for on-chain processes.
On September 1st, the SEC proposed updates to transfer agent rules. This set of regulations, established from the late 1970s to early 1980s, has long lacked substantive updates; this proposal will amend existing rules and forms, add two new rules, and repeal one, with a public comment period of 60 days after publication in the Federal Register. The proposal text also confirms that as long as retention requirements are met, digital records on distributed ledgers or blockchains can serve as compliant records.
More critically, SEC Commissioner Peirce publicly asked whether, after securities go on-chain, holder information could use email or wallet addresses instead of names and physical addresses. This does not mean wallets can bypass KYC, nor that tokens are automatically compliant; what is truly brought to the table is who maintains the official holder registry, who is responsible for correcting errors, and how restrictive markings are handled.
If the proposal is ultimately implemented, the first beneficiaries may be the issuance and settlement infrastructure for tokenized stocks, funds, and U.S. Treasuries, rather than all tokens labeled as RWA. Do you think on-chain transfer agents will improve efficiency or bring centralized gateways back? Which element is most important: the official registry, wallet identity, or error correction?
#RWA #AssetTokenization #CryptoRegulation The market is already pricing in the expectation that tonight's non-farm payrolls will show positive data.
Wednesday's ADP employment report was slightly below expectations, causing short-term US Treasury yields to fall from their highs.
Last night, Fed's Waller's speech also confirmed a 50-50 chance of a rate hike.
Waiting for the non-farm payrolls and next week's CPI to confirm, the market is betting that there will definitely be no rate hike in September.
Therefore, the market is clearly trading ahead; both BTC and gold rose more than 2% after Waller's dovish tilt.
However, service sector inflation and oil prices remain high. Even if the non-farm payrolls are weak,
can we really confirm a pause in rate hikes directly? The real deciding factors are still next week's CPI and PPI.
Weak ADP and expectations of a pause in rate hikes have already pushed BTC and gold up in advance.
If tonight's data only meets expectations, might the market first spike and then pull back?
After all, Monday is Labor Day in the US, with markets closed, giving three days for market adjustment.
If tonight's non-farm payrolls show negative growth again and unemployment rises to 4.3%, the situation from early last month may reoccur.
The dollar and US Treasury yields would fall, gold would continue to rise, and the Nasdaq and BTC would spike up then pull back.On-chain whales are frantically dumping MARSCOIN! Don't catch the peak at 0.185, wait for a pullback before considering buying.
Whales' cost is 0.0013, current price is 0.185, they've made 4456% profit and are gradually exiting in batches. Are you rushing in to help them take the last million shares?
Strategy: Wait patiently for a pullback to 0.162-0.168 before going long. Do not buy now!
Public opinion:
Brothers, the data is very clear—TOP1 address entered at 0.00133 38 days ago, now floating a profit of 2.31 million USD. After announcing an 80% pullback, they have already started small batch selling.
This is not to say the coin is doomed, but to tell you the juiciest gains are gone. Wait for a pullback near the midline at 0.162; the current risk-reward ratio is not favorable.
Remember, the top of a Meme coin is always sold by insiders. Wait for the pullback, don’t chase the highs, protecting your principal is most important. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Do you treat whale transfers as entry signals or just as auxiliary references?
Many traders rely heavily on whale transfer alerts, placing orders immediately upon seeing large on-chain transfers, which is actually a major trading misconception.
My view: whale transfers should only be used as auxiliary references and must never be directly treated as entry signals.
Many large transfers are just exchanges adjusting cold and hot wallets, institutional custody relocations, or OTC settlements, and do not necessarily indicate buying or selling. Depositing to an exchange doesn’t always mean a dump, and withdrawing to a cold wallet doesn’t necessarily mean a pump. Whales can also misread the market and perform fake moves to mislead the market into following.
Truly effective whale signals require multiple conditions to be verified together: wallet identity, fund destinations, combined with technical chart patterns, derivatives positions, and the overall macro market environment. A single transfer has a very low success rate in predicting market trends.
In practice, whale anomalies can be used for risk warning.
When seeing large fund movements, the first reaction should not be to place orders but to raise caution: if at the same time the candlestick breaks key levels and positions surge, then respond accordingly; if the market does not follow, treat it only as an observation signal and avoid blind actions.
Especially near non-farm payrolls, macro factors dominate the current market. On-chain data is just a bonus; entries must be based on price charts, not led blindly by on-chain news.#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位, can the momentum continue?
The BTC/Gold ratio recently surged to 18.17, a new high since January this year, meaning one Bitcoin can be exchanged for 18 ounces of gold. This round of market activity is quite unique: gold and Bitcoin rose simultaneously, but BTC significantly outperformed gold, with their 90-day correlation surging to a six-year high of 0.86. The digital gold attribute is fully demonstrated, but whether the ratio can sustain after a rise depends on two main variables: Federal Reserve inflation data and funding structure.
The underlying logic behind this round's rising ratio
1. Fiscal debt narrative resonance
With the US high deficit and massive federal debt, the market trades currency depreciation, and institutions classify gold and BTC together as hard asset hedging tools. The US Treasury Secretary publicly stated that debt will be resolved through growth, which the market interprets as a positive for limited asset supply.
2. Federal Reserve expectations are turning toward catalysis
Waller stated that August CPI will be key for the September rate meeting. Expectations of cooling inflation pushed down U.S. Treasury yields, risk-free yields declined, and funds flowed into gold. Bitcoin, with its inherent leveraged properties, was more flexible, allowing gains to outpace gold and directly push up the ratio.
3. Changes in capital structure
BTC-ETFs continued to see net inflows, with BTC's correlation with US tech stocks dropping sharply, no longer simply following risk stocks, and the proportion of digital gold trading rising.$BTC short brothers, it's not that I want to pour cold water, but I estimate that tonight, this asset will most likely rise again!
Yesterday's market was obviously a short squeeze; the market hasn't even ended yet, and no support level has been broken, yet shorts are flooding in like a tide!
Isn't this just fueling the bulls?
Moreover, the shorts are skilled and daring, with high leverage and full positions. If they get liquidated, don't blame the market.
My judgment is not baseless. In a short squeeze, you have to closely watch the liquidation map. Since yesterday, I have been checking the liquidation map from time to time.
After yesterday's big rise, shorts were liquidated cleanly (see Figure 1).
Today's movement clearly shows the main force is still supporting the market, fluctuating slightly around 81,000. The purpose is obvious: there are no more shorts to liquidate above, so the drop is to cover shorts.
This lays the foundation for the next upward momentum.
Otherwise, there would be no need to stubbornly defend this position, and the open interest (OI) keeps increasing continuously.
If the price could really fall, these longs would have taken profits long ago, and there would be no need to add so many new short orders.
It's just a trap set to make everyone think this is a very cost-effective short entry point.
Now, 12 hours have passed, and shorts have been well covered (see Figure 2).
And the shorts are cooperating well, with many high-leverage orders.
So, the market is still ready to start at any time.
The highest dense liquidation area for shorts currently is around 83,500.
Coincidentally, I placed a long position this afternoon, and I will also take the lead, placing sell orders around 83,500 to return the chips to the market.
The above analysis is just my personal opinion for reference only and does not constitute investment advice!
Chasing highs requires caution and care, and going short against the trend requires even more caution. 地下钱庄最反直觉的地方，是钱经常根本没有“跨境”。 你在 A 城把钱交给一个中间人，B 城的另一个中间人把等值资金交给收款人。两边先在自己的账本上记一笔，隔几天、几个月，再用贸易、现金或互相抵债把差额慢慢结掉。飞机没运钞，银行没电汇，价值已经到站。 这套被称为 hawala 等非银行结算网络的办法，比智能手机老得多。可 FATF 9 月 3 日的新报告发现，它不但没有被数字金融淘汰，反而完成了一次很隐蔽的升级：加密通信、金融科技、匿名工具和加密资产，让联络更快、网络更分散、账更难追。参与调查的 50 多个司法辖区里，超过八成把这类系统列为职业洗钱的重要渠道或手法；一些案件在几个月内处理的金额超过 5 亿欧元。 听上去很像“现金黑帮学会了上链”，但我觉得只盯着币地址，会看漏最关键的一层。这个网络真正的资产不是某种币，而是信用：谁认识谁，谁愿意先垫钱，谁能在另一座城市兑现承诺。加密工具只是给这张人情账本装上更快的通信和更多结算选项。把一个钱包封掉，关系网还在；换个地址，生意可以继续。 反过来也别把 hawala 直接等同犯罪。银行服务差、汇款昂贵或局势动荡的地区，它也承担真实的生活需求。问Polymarket Perps is interesting not because of 20x leverage, but because it combines event bets with market reactions.
For example: Long “Fed cuts” + Long BTC + Short S&P 500
You're no longer just betting on the event—you’re betting on how markets respond.
Prediction markets can also hedge event risk, though their binary payoffs differ from continuous perps.
If this expands, Polymarket could become more than a prediction market: an event-driven trading terminal.
#WallerEyesAugCPI $BTC $ETH
Current Market Expectations
August non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by about 55,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.1% and year-over-year wage growth of 3.0%. Institutional forecast ranges vary widely (-25,000 to +121,000), indicating high data volatility.
1. Data significantly exceeds expectations > 80,000, wages rise
Overheated employment, increased rate hike expectations, bullish for the US dollar, bearish for gold and crypto assets.
2. Data near expectations (30,000 to 70,000)
Neutral outcome, market prone to rapid spikes and retracements causing short-term volatility, difficult to sustain a one-sided trend.
3. Data significantly below expectations (<0 or negative, unemployment rate rises)
Weakening employment, market anticipates easing, bearish for the US dollar, bullish for gold and crypto markets.
Short-term Market View
Recent leading indicators like ADP and PMI employment components are generally weak. Combined with statistical disturbances from immigration policies, the market leans toward data underperformance. However, August non-farm payrolls have historically shown reverse surprises, so a one-sided bet is unwise. The decisive factor requires considering wages and revisions to previous data together. Non-farm payrolls only cause short-term impulse fluctuations; the medium-term trend ultimately depends on next week's CPI inflation data. BTC/gold ratio soars to 18.17, hitting a new high since January!
One Bitcoin can now be exchanged for 18 ounces of gold. Can the strength continue?
🧵 Core logic breakdown 👇
1️⃣ The driving force is not interest rate cuts, but "default" expectations
Debt-to-GDP ratios in the US, Japan, and Europe have all exceeded 100%, with the market betting that governments will use "inflation devaluation" to dilute debt.
Bessent says "rely on growth to get out of trouble"—to the whales, this is a signal to "buy Bitcoin."
2️⃣ Correlation soars to 0.86, the closest in six years
Bitcoin and gold are rising with the strongest linkage since 2020. This is no longer "safe haven vs risk," but two hard asset champions in the same boat.
3️⃣ Technicals: countdown to a major shakeup
Daily symmetrical triangle, apex pointing to September 28.
✅ If it breaks upward → target $106,500 - $117,800
❌ If it breaks downward → warning $41,500 - $43,300
4️⃣ Short-term warning
When BTC hit $81,336, the MFI indicator soared to 100, a textbook case of overbought.
Bloomberg marks $80,000 as a key resistance level for "momentum cooling."
#BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #FOMC last set of data before: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday Current $BTC Bitcoin increase 0.01%, $ETH currently up 0.56%, calmly awaiting nonfarm data, which will be released tonight and is worth watching. Three real cases to understand how nonfarm affects Bitcoin 🤔 Case 1: Strong nonfarm, shattering rate cut fantasies May 2026, nonfarm added 172,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations. Rate cut expectations instantly collapsed, the dollar strengthened, Bitcoin was widely sold off, and Nasdaq plunged 4.18% in a single day. 🌚 Case 2: Weak nonfarm, shorts brutally liquidated June 2026, nonfarm added only 57,000 jobs, far below expectations, with the previous two months' data revised down by a total of 74,000. Bitcoin strongly rebounded from $57,700, breaking through $61,000, rising over 6% in one day, with over $210 million in shorts liquidated across the market in 24 hours, and spot ETFs net inflow of $222 million in one day. ❤️ Case 3: Negative employment growth, but rebound dulled July 2026, nonfarm recorded -20,000 jobs, again significantly below expectations. Bitcoin surged then fell back, closing with only a slight gain—when "bad news is good news" is repeatedly traded, the market gradually becomes dulled, and the strength of the rebound depends on whether new catalysts are added. ✊ My judgment Nonfarm payrolls amplify short-term volatility in the crypto market but do not determine long-term trends. What truly drives the medium- to long-term price trend of coins is$
1. Latest Current News
1. Significant Inflow of ETF Funds (Bullish Bias): On September 3, the US BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of approximately $730.8 million, with BlackRock's IBIT net inflow at $454 million; ETH spot ETF net inflow was about $68 million. Institutional funds clearly favor BTC, which is a key support for this rapid rally.
2. Cooling Rate Hike Expectations (Bullish Bias): Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if inflation continues to slow, he would prefer to keep rates unchanged in September. Market expectations for a September rate hike dropped from about 63% to 50%, the US dollar index fell to around 98.96, and the US 10-year Treasury yield dropped to about 4.762%; the Nasdaq rose 1.40% overnight, showing a clear recovery in risk appetite.
3. Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls and High Oil Prices Still Pose Risks: The market expects about 56,000 new jobs added in the US in August, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. Brent crude remains near $95.5, up about 7% this week. If employment or inflation data is stronger than expected, it could push rate hike expectations and market volatility higher again.
Comprehensive News Judgment: Neutral to Slightly Bullish. Large ETF inflows, along with declines in the dollar and US Treasury yields, jointly support a rebound in BTC and ETH; however, BTC has already reached key resistance near $82,300. Combined with tonight's nonfarm payrolls and high oil price risks, the short-term rapid rally should not be directly interpreted as a one-sided breakout. $XRP +6% — ETF Inflows Are Back, But Don’t Overread It.
The XRP spot ETF recorded about $6.14M in net inflows, showing institutional demand remains.
However, the broader market also rallied sharply, with major short liquidations adding fuel.
This move looks more like market-wide risk-on + short covering than a confirmed institutional accumulation trend.
One day of inflows is a signal not a trend.
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh Brothers, combining the last July non-farm actual of -23,000, and looking at this ADP of only 38,000, initial claims of 206,000, and the market's current expectation of about 55,000–65,000, I personally lean towards this non-farm payroll not being particularly strong.
My subjective forecast: non-farm payroll 40,000–70,000, leaning around 50,000; unemployment rate 4.1%–4.2%, wage growth most likely to remain moderate.#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh #OKXOutcomeLeagueFOMC Empty empty empty living in the palace……
1. The current market has partially priced in "employment slowdown". On September 3, due to dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, the rate hike expectations dropped, and BTC rebounded from 77,000 to around 81,000. The market is somewhat prepared for "weak data," but if the data is indeed weak, it may continue to boost risk appetite.
2. Strong data has a greater impact. If non-farm payrolls significantly exceed expectations, rate hike expectations will quickly rise, and US Treasury yields may climb again, which would directly hit Bitcoin that just rebounded.
3. Technical position. The current price is above 80,000, with short-term bulls dominating. However, if the data is strong, the 80,000 support may be quickly tested.
My personal inclination
I tend to first look at the upside opportunity brought by weak data, meaning the probability of Bitcoin rising short-term after the non-farm payroll release is slightly higher. But this advantage is not large, because the probability of consensus is also high, in which case a situation of "both up and down with increased volatility" is more likely.
The most critical point: the volatility in the first 5–15 minutes after the non-farm payroll release will be very large, often first surging in one direction and then quickly reversing. Purely betting on direction is very risky. $BTC The US 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.818%!
A new high since November 2023.
Long-term rates have broken through the resistance zone again!
High oil prices and debt concerns are both exerting pressure.
Crypto has been heavily suppressed again by macro factors!
The intraday high of the US 10-year Treasury yield reached about 4.818%, the highest level since November 2023; the 30-year yield also briefly rose near 5.30%. High oil prices, sticky inflation, and US fiscal and debt pressures have jointly pushed long-term rates back up.
However, Fed officials later released dovish signals, and the 10-year yield has retreated from the high to around 4.74%–4.76%. For BTC, whether 4.8% can become a phase top is very critical; if yields continue to ease, tech stocks and Crypto can truly gain the momentum of financial condition easing.
#US 10-year Treasury yield hits new high since November 2023
4.818% has already hit the market’s pain point, and next we will see if this is the phase top for long-term rates.
As long as US Treasuries continue to fall, the previously suppressed elasticity of BTC can easily be released again! Account Position Divergence Radar
First, separate the stance and the bets; new information only arises when the account direction and the top positions are inconsistent.
$DOGE: Both the overall accounts and the top accounts are biased long, but the top position size is biased short. The number of accounts and position weights are not aligned. When the price rises, OI increases simultaneously; this phase is not simply deleveraging, and position attribution still requires transaction verification. Until the top position ratio returns above 1, the long account advantage remains an incomplete consensus.
$SUI: There is a misalignment between the long-short ratio, the number of accounts, top accounts, and top positions, which cannot yet be combined into a single conclusion. The 15-minute price and position move inversely, indicating expanding risk exposure. The next step is to see if selling pressure can continue to cause displacement. When the metrics are not aligned, first observe which side the top positions converge to, then see if the price responds.
$PEPE: Long accounts dominate, but the top position ratio has not crossed above 1; account sentiment and position strength remain misaligned. The 15-minute price and position move upward together, indicating expanding risk exposure. The next step is to see if the price can continue to realize gains. What the long side lacks next is not more accounts, but confirmation of the top position weight.Bitcoin is back above $81K — but I wouldn’t call this breakout confirmed yet. BTC pushed as high as ~$82.2K today before slipping back toward $80.8K. That puts the $81K–$82K zone right where the market needs to prove buyers can actually hold the breakout. The interesting part: today’s macro setup is more complicated than “weak jobs = bullish BTC.” August NFP is expected around +56K, after July’s -23K print. But Fed Governor Waller has already said his September decision will be driven heavily b$SPCX
Looking at the Russian version of Starlink and flat satellite networking, it is not the simple technology many people think it is.
The first batch of 16 "Russian Starlink" satellites was launched on March 23 this year. Currently, none of the satellites have raised their orbits to the operational altitude of about 800 kilometers; most remain at an orbit altitude of around 520 kilometers. Among them, one satellite failed to complete the orbit raise and has re-entered the atmosphere and burned up, and two others remain at an altitude of about 350 kilometers.
The second batch was launched on July 19 this year, with most orbits around 350 kilometers, and even two satellites' orbits decayed below 300 kilometers, facing the risk of re-entry and burn-up.
Meanwhile, China's Qianfan constellation has also experienced group satellite failures during networking, mainly with the Qianfan 02 group satellites. Currently, this batch of satellites is mainly being supplemented by 15 groups of satellites Tonight, almost everyone trading crypto has to keep an eye on the same thing: the US August nonfarm payroll report.
The market expects an increase of 53,000 to 58,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate stuck at 4.1%. This single figure can directly rewrite the direction of the Fed's September 16 meeting.
Honestly, there's a lot happening on the macro front this week. Last week, Waller hawked at Jackson Hole, pushing the September rate hike probability to 57%, which scared me into reducing my contracts. But yesterday, Fed Governor Waller turned dovish again, saying that as long as inflation continues to cool in August, he leans toward keeping rates unchanged. The rate hike probability instantly dropped from over 60% to about 50-50, causing US stocks to rebound and Treasury yields to fall.
My own understanding is that tonight's nonfarm payrolls probably won't be explosive. ADP has been weakening continuously, with July even showing a negative growth of 23,000 jobs. Immigration policies are also suppressing hiring. Even if the increase is just over 50,000 this time, it still represents a normal state of low hiring and low layoffs, not enough to make the Fed panic and hike rates. The real deciding factor is the inflation trend, and both Waller and Waller acknowledge this anchor.
So my guess for tonight's script is that the data will be lukewarm, the dollar will hover around 99, and risk assets will breathe a sigh of relief. But brothers, don't get carried away; the real test is the FOMC from September 15 to 17, when rate hike expectations can flip at any time. My strategy is to leave contracts untouched tonight, stay flat on spot, and adjust after seeing the dollar and gold's reaction to the data. At times like this, avoiding mistakes is more important than making money. $BTC Brothers, now if it’s around 7 PM, everyone should already be getting nervous. The current volatility of $BTC and $ETH is mostly waiting on the data; the real big direction will likely only be chosen after the 8:30 PM nonfarm payrolls release.
Comparing with last month is very clear: July’s nonfarm payrolls were -23,000, while the market now expects August to rebound to about +55,000–56,000, with the unemployment rate still around 4.1%. This time ADP was only 38,000, which also indicates employment isn’t particularly strong.
Personally, I currently lean toward August nonfarm payrolls being around 40,000–70,000, not especially strong. But once the data is out, if it’s significantly below expectations, BTC and ETH might directly strengthen; if it exceeds 100,000, then watch out for US Treasury yields and rate hike expectations rising again, causing prices to spike and then fall sharply or even crash quickly.
So now, whether you’re stuck or profiting, don’t make reckless moves based on the few minutes of up-and-down spikes before the data. Stick strictly to your trading plan. Once the data is out, wait for the first wave of intense volatility to settle before judging the trend. Don’t get carried away by a single big bullish or bearish candle.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #BTC兑黄金比率升至1月以来高位，强势能否延续？ #OKX预言家：9月FOMC利率决议预测上线 $BTC continues its strong rebound, trading between $80,700 and $81,200 at the time of writing, with a 24-hour increase of about 5%. It once broke through $82,000 intraday, reaching a four-month high since May. Previously, on September 2, BTC briefly dropped to around $76,700, then quickly surged over $4,000 in the following two trading days.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller signaled dovishness, stating that if inflation continues to cool, he would support keeping rates unchanged in September. CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has sharply dropped from over 63% to 50.4%. Both the US dollar index and US Treasury yields fell, directly igniting Bitcoin's rebound. Meanwhile, US-Iran geopolitical risks have marginally eased, with the US military escorting commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which has somewhat restored market sentiment.
BTC has broken through the key psychological level of $80,000, but there is potential selling pressure from long-term holders in the $83,000–$86,000 range above. The Fear and Greed Index has risen to 74 (greed zone). Capital flows are diverging: the Bitcoin spot ETF attracted a net inflow of $277 million on Thursday, but flows have fluctuated over the past four days, and a sustained buying momentum has yet to form.
Tonight's US nonfarm payroll report and next Friday's CPI data will determine whether dovish expectations can translate into actual rate cuts. If the data supports rate cuts, BTC is expected to challenge the $83,000 resistance and even test the $100,000 level; if the data is strong, a pullback to around $70,000 is possible.Bitcoin Is Starting to Outshine Gold.
One BTC now buys 18+ ounces of gold, reaching a new high for the year.
The bigger story isn’t simply Bitcoin going up. It’s the growing concern around fiat purchasing power, debt, and persistent deficits.
As government debt continues to expand, investors are increasingly looking for assets that can’t be easily diluted.
That’s where Bitcoin enters the conversation.
Gold has been the traditional hedge.
#WallerEyesAugCPI #BTCGoldRatioHigh In early September, $CORE experienced a typical "issuance layer vulnerability + emergency hard fork + large-scale burn" event.
The official team ultimately announced around September 3 the launch of the v1.0.26 hard fork, which closed the vulnerability and permanently destroyed over 150 million excess issued CORE tokens. There was no transaction rollback, no user funds lost, and staking rewards are expected to return to normal within 48 hours. A full post-mortem report will be released soon.
On the surface, this was a technical incident, but essentially it tested the project's crisis response capability, tokenomics integrity, and the commitment to the "hard cap supply" promise.
1. Event Timeline: From Discovery to Implementation
Around August 31 (Monday): Official first disclosure
The official Core account @Coredao_Org posted a status update: There was a network issue where a small number of validators accumulated block rewards significantly exceeding the protocol's designed issuance. The root cause has been identified, and mitigation measures are underway. User assets are safe; the issue only affects reward issuance, not network security or fund custody. A full post-mortem will follow.
At this point, the public did not know the scale, only that "a small number of validators received excess rewards." Major exchanges immediately reacted: Coinbase suspended sending and receiving CORE, and Bithumb, Coinone, Bitget, LBank, and others also suspended deposits, withdrawals, or transfers. Standard procedure to prevent greater risk.
September 1: Escalation and coordination of hard fork
The official update: The issue is under control, and malicious validators can no longer extract excess rewards. Coordination for an emergency hard fork is underway to deploy a permanent fix. It was emphasized this is a forward upgrade, not a rollback. Assets remain safe, and a full post-mortem will follow.
A key change here: the issue was redefined from an "issue" to "malicious validators." The official stance is that the behavior was malicious, not just a code bug causing accidental over-issuance. This indicates these validators actively exploited the vulnerability to continuously extract excess rewards.
September 2-3: Hard fork implementation + burn announcement
The v1.0.26 (and preparatory versions) were released on GitHub, with the mainnet hard fork activation around September 3. The official announcement stated: The v1.0.26 hard fork is live on the Core mainnet, resolving the reward issuance problem. The upgrade closed the vulnerability and destroyed over 150 million excess issued CORE tokens, permanently removing them from supply. No transactions were rolled back, and no user funds were lost. Staking rewards are expected to normalize within 48 hours. A full follow-up analysis report will be published.
2. Root Cause: What exactly happened? What was the nature of the vulnerability?
One of Core's tokenomics core selling points is "mimicking Bitcoin's hard cap supply": a total hard cap of 2.1 billion CORE tokens (100 times Bitcoin's), with node mining rewards (about 840 million) gradually issued over 81 years, with annual rewards decreasing by about 3.61%, approaching but never reaching the hard cap. Rewards come mainly from newly minted CORE plus transaction fees, distributed to validators and their delegators (including CORE stakers and Bitcoin hash power delegators).
The problem was in the reward calculation/distribution system contract or logic. A small number of validators were able to accumulate block rewards far exceeding the protocol's designed issuance. The official later explicitly called them "malicious validators," indicating they were not passive beneficiaries but actively exploiting the vulnerability to continuously extract rewards.
The official has not yet released a full post-mortem with technical details, but from public information, it can be inferred:
- The vulnerability was in the reward issuance layer, not in consensus security or user asset layers.
- It broke the protocol's original issuance curve and hard cap commitment.
- If not fixed promptly, each new block would continue over-issuing, causing severe long-term supply dilution.
- The excess tokens had already been minted, so the hard fork directly destroyed these excess tokens at the protocol level.
Importantly: This was not a hacker stealing user wallets, nor a smart contract being drained. Users' own CORE, staked tokens, and cross-chain assets were not lost. The problem was strictly limited to the "validator reward issuance" process. This is similar to inflation bugs or reward calculation errors seen historically on some chains, but the scale here was over 150 million tokens, which is significant.
Some questioned why "malicious validators" were able to continue for some time before detection. Possibly monitoring thresholds were not real-time enough, or reward settlements were done in rounds (about daily), causing anomalies to accumulate before being noticed. This also exposed shortcomings in validator monitoring and reward auditing mechanisms.
3. Specific Operations of Hard Fork and Burn
The official repeatedly emphasized two points:
- Forward upgrade, not rollback. All confirmed transactions are retained; history is not rewritten. This is critical. Rollbacks would undermine trust in "code is law" and transaction finality, especially impacting exchanges, DeFi protocols, and cross-chain bridges. Core chose a cleaner approach: from a certain block height, new rules take effect, the vulnerability is closed, and excess tokens are directly burned.
- Destroying over 150 million excess issued CORE tokens, permanently removing them from supply.
After the burn, these tokens are gone forever and cannot be used by anyone. Staking rewards are temporarily affected (possibly paused or abnormal), but the official said they will return to normal within 48 hours.
From a tokenomics perspective, this is equivalent to an unexpected large-scale deflation event. Core already has fee and partial reward burn mechanisms (DAO adjustable ratio), and this was an additional "forced burn."
Core's core narrative remains "making Bitcoin truly work" (BTCFi, staking yields, fast low-cost ecosystem). The reward vulnerability was a side story; the real determinant of survival is whether the Bitcoin ecosystem can be sustainably realized.
As long as the project is sufficiently transparent going forward and improvement measures are implemented, the long-term fundamental damage from this event is controllable. For ordinary holders and participants, short-term focus is on whether rewards resume on time, exchanges return to full normal operation, and liquidity risks amid price volatility; mid-to-long term depends on whether the project truly turns this lesson into stronger monitoring and governance mechanisms. Today's market compared to yesterday just changed the leading sector, with non-ferrous metals and chemicals taking the lead, but the pattern of rising then falling is exactly the same.
The manufacturing data released during the session was actually decent, but the market completely ignored it, showing a typical scenario of good news already priced in. The biggest fear at this level is a prolonged sideways movement leading to a drop, so everyone is cautious.
$BTC is still barely alive, the battle around the 60,000 mark is endless. $SOL showed some strength today, but the volume didn't keep up, feeling more like an oversold rebound.
Honestly, in this market, both going long and short are uncomfortable, so it's better to focus your energy on stock selection and wait for stabilization before making a move. Watching the intraday charts every day only increases anxiety and is useless. Do what you need to do, don't let the market throw off your rhythm.$BTC
Friends who haven't fully entered the position need not panic; there are clear guidelines for BTC's pullback entry points.
Figure 1 shows the liquidity cycle of realized market capitalization, where we can see that when the 30-day liquidity cycle index rises from the long-term zero axis, it indicates leaving the bear market bottom area (red area in Figure 1). When it returns to the zero axis again, that marks the last entry point in the early bull market (black line in Figure 1), usually offering one or two opportunities.
Figure 2 shows the profit-loss ratio of unrealized profits for short-term holders, where we can see that when the index starts to leave the long-term loss area, it indicates leaving the bear market bottom range (yellow box in Figure 2). When it returns to the loss area again, it also marks the last entry point in the early bull market (blue circle in Figure 2), usually with one or two opportunities.
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