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To calculate the supply and demand account for the storage supercycle, just look at the numbers. In the first half of the year, global mainstream DRAM manufacturers combined revenue of $284.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of over 300%; Institutions bluntly warn that memory shortages may continue into 2027, with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron already having their capacity sold out early. A more critical signal is the power to speak—Changxin Memory directly rejected Apple's price cut request, quoting in line with Samsung and SK Hynix. When major terminal manufacturers start passively accepting seller pricing, it means this is not a short-term shortage but a structural mismatch. $BTC In this cycle, the market has not benefited; incremental funds are all heading toward areas with certainty narratives. Do you think this wave of storage is a real cycle, or a capacity rush?Today, $BICO continued to rise, so logically, it should be time to go short. However, after observing its contract data, I found it is not very suitable for short selling. Personally, I believe this is not a good opportunity to short right now. Although its price is currently quite high, there is still a lot of capital going long, and there may be a significant price increase in the future. You can't rush to short it now. —————————————————— Let's look at its contract data. It can be seen that its contract open interest is rapidly increasing, and the corresponding contract long-short ratio is also rising most of the time. This shows that even at such high prices, quite a few funds are still willing to go long. Let's look at its longer-term data. Long-term data is relatively complex; we can see that its open interest had an upward phase yesterday. At that time, the contract long-short ratio was declining, so we can see that $BICO has been pulling back since yesterday. During the pullback phase, its open interest quickly drops, and the corresponding contract long-short ratio also rises. This indicates that many bears have left during the pullback since yesterday. Immediately after, from early yesterday morning until now, its contract open interest has increased to some extent. We just looked at the detailed process, and indeed quite a few people are trading long. Does that mean you can go in more now? I also don't recommend buying too much, because its long-short ratio is still declining in the end. That is to say$SNDK SNDK SanDisk｜Post-Earnings Market Analysis📊
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
Earnings Highlights Review
Just released Q4 FY2026: This quarter's performance data exceeded market expectations across the board, with revenue of $8.97 billion, EPS of $39.25, and a gross margin of 84.6%; the data center business maintained rapid growth, and the company added a $14 billion buyback plan, showing fundamentally strong performance.
However, the mid-point of next quarter's revenue guidance is below the market consensus, which became the main trigger for the recent stock price pressure. The stock closed down 5.4% on the regular trading day and declined further in after-hours trading, dragging the storage sector down collectively.
In simple terms: past results were very good, but the market's expectations for the future were higher. The guidance did not meet the elevated optimistic expectations, leading investors to take profits and exit, rather than a direct collapse in AI storage demand.
Technical Market Update
Previously, the rebound was an oversold recovery after a big drop; after the earnings release, the rebound logic was challenged.
🔸Key Resistance
First resistance: 1400-1420 (previous rebound highs); strong resistance at 1480-1500.
After the earnings-driven sell-off, the area above 1400 has turned into a strong resistance zone. To reverse the short-term weakness, volume must increase and the price must reclaim this level.
🔸Key Support
First support: 1260-1300; core defense level at 1240.
Personal Current View
The underlying logic of mid-to-long-term AI storage and long-term contract orders has not been damaged by the earnings, but short-term sentiment has weakened.
Before earnings, I defined the market as a corrective rebound during a downtrend; after earnings, this judgment was confirmed.
Until volume-driven stabilization above 1420 occurs, the priority is to consider the possibility of a weakening consolidation.
Two scenarios:
1) Hold the 1240-1260 support zone, maintain range-bound consolidation, and wait for sector sentiment to recover;
2) A volume-driven break below the 1240 defense level would signal the end of the rebound and open a new round of correction.
#In-depth review post (suitable for Planet main posts, with interaction)
Index hits new highs, individual stocks are being slaughtered—understanding the most tangled reality of the US stock market today
Right now, the US stock market is very fragmented: the Dow Jones and S&P keep hitting new all-time highs, but many tech stocks plunge after their earnings reports are released.
Not all stocks will rise just because the market is bullish; this earnings season isn't about how much money you make for the period, but about management's guidance for the future.
SanDisk and Western Digital posted explosive results this quarter, with revenue and profit significantly exceeding expectations. However, because next quarter's guidance did not meet the market's extreme optimistic expectations, they were hit hard after the market closed; SPCX and AMD also saw significant revenue growth, but also experienced sharp pullbacks due to poor expectations.
Core logic: The stock price had already priced in the good story ahead of time.
No matter how good the results have already become, they are all in the past; capital trading reflects future growth rates. Once the outlook cools, high valuations will shrink rapidly.
Sector differentiation is clearly visible:
✅ Traditional blue chips and consumer pharmaceuticals withstood the volatility, and the market's new highs mainly relied on them as the bottom.
⚠️AI hardware and memory chips have fluctuated explosively, and the market still has a booming economy, but the market's margin for error has become extremely low, and even a slight gap in expectations leads to sell-offs.
We still need to wait for major nonfarm payroll and CPI data. Inflation data will directly affect expectations for Fed rate cuts and further amplify market volatility.
🔥 Direction of capital concentration:
$JTO • $JELLY • $BTC • $OPG • $BTCSLX • $LAB • $BSB • $ALLO • $CHIP
Personal market analysis:
🥇 $BTC — Controlling overall market liquidity is the core driving force of the overall market
🏧 $ETH — Funds are accumulating at a sustained low level, steadily accumulating momentum
🚀 $SOL — A highly elastic leader in the Layer 1 sector, with maxed offensive attributes
🧠 $TAO & $WLD — AI-themed topics remain highly popular, continuing to attract financial support
📊 $HYPE — Can be used to measure overall market risk appetite
🐾 $DOGE & $ZEC — Visually reflects the bullish and bearish sentiment of ordinary retail investors
🇺🇸 US Stocks:
$MU • $SPCX • $SNDK • $SKHY • $CL • $XAU • $NITC • $AMD
📉 Fading Popularity, Weakening of Upward Momentum:
$BEAT • $EDGE • $COAI • $TRUMP • $RAVE • $SPACE • $SOPH • $IP • $AVNT • $ZAMA • $OFC • $PIEVERSE • $VIRTUAL • $ACU • $H • $MEGA
🔭 Backup tracking observation pool:
$MEME • $EDEN • $HUMA • $ZKP • $METIS#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
我的看法很简单：闪迪这次财报，利好出尽就是利空。
EPS从0.29干到39.25，毛利率84.6%，营收破百亿，还扔出140亿回购。单看数字确实硬，但盘后跌了8%——市场已经提前把预期打满了，现在业绩兑现，反而没了继续拿着的理由。跟英伟达前几次财报一个路数，数字炸裂，股价横盘甚至回调，因为市场要的是“还能不能更好”，而不是“现在有多好”。
紧缺和HBF的故事已经讲了两三个月，股价从底部也翻了不少。现在财报把故事全验证了，后面怎么看？指引中值105.5亿，市场要111.6亿，差了6个亿就砸盘——说明资金已经开始计较细节了，不再是之前闭眼买入的氛围。
回购140亿这事，结合7月跌了47%的背景，更像是公司给套牢盘的一个交代。美光去年也干过类似的事，回购一宣布股价稳几天，之后该怎么走还怎么走。三星那边也不乐观，NAND涨到下游快扛不住了，客户库存堆得老高，这波紧缺到底有多少是真实需求、多少是囤货，大家心里都有数。长江存储产能一上来，供需反转只是时间问题。
闪迪这票，故事永远比账本好听。这次也一样。就看这波情绪杀透之后，能不能捡点肉吃了。 #黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise?
$XAU $XAUT Gold rose from over 3,900 points to over 4,200 points
Weak ADP employment data has opened expectations for rate cuts, which in turn reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold
Gold has continued to be bought by central banks in other countries, and secondly, easing geopolitical tensions have eased market concerns about inflation, leading to further gains
As for $BTC, the lack of new funds to buy Bitcoin is mainly due to internal divergence in crypto market fund flows
BTC is consolidating in the 60,000-67,000 range, adjusting, and the price is close to the 200-week moving average at around $63,700
Second, the BTC digital gold narrative has not been activated, and most funds are currently flowing into popular sectors like AI. BTC needs breakthrough progress that may attract new capital inflow
More importantly, they are waiting for key data such as the nonfarm payroll report
@OKX Planet @Mini Minnie_OKX @Baxi Zora_OKX Tonight marks SpaceX's first stock lock-up, and it's the largest lock-up period after an IPO in US stock history.
1. According to the unlocking rules, after releasing the financial report the day before yesterday, today is the unlocking day, unlocking 20% of the shares held by insiders and employees, which is 912 million shares. At current prices, that's a potential selling pressure of over 100 billion. #财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future?
2. This group is very likely to cash out and improve their lives. Today's lifting of the ban is likely the most intense selling pressure. Moreover, on August 20, September 9, September 24, October 9, and October 24, about 7% of the stock limit will be lifted, meaning the second half of the year should be the period when $SPCX's share price is under the most pressure.
3. Plus, as Musk clearly stated during the earnings call: $18.4 billion in capital expenditure is fully invested in AI infrastructure, and will continue to be slashed aggressively, aiming for over 2GW of computing power by year-end and nearly 10GW by the end of next year. This means there won't be any cash this year or even next, which has further heightened everyone's worries.
4. By the way, SpaceX said in its earnings report they bought 18,712 $BTC, but I estimate BTC won't be unaffected. After all, S&P just hit a record high, and if SpaceX's unban triggers a pullback in tech stocks, crypto will also be affected我们的第一辆小顺风车已经成功启动了！
位于145一线我们空了ZHIPU的，当前以来至138左右一线，成功吃到一半以上的利润，目前拉扯的比较严重
已经成功分批了，设好了保本损，稳健的直接全部丢了！$ZHIPU #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 Has Wall Street opened its short position on Musk again?
Why is SpaceX's earnings report optimistic, but there are more bears?
It seems the market is betting not on whether SpaceX makes money, but on whether it can survive the post-IPO "Max Q."
$124.6 million is huge, but not the most dangerous sign
In US stock history, $24.6 billion in short positions is in the top tier, but it's not uncommon.
At its peak, Tesla's short position once exceeded $40 billion; Trillion-dollar companies like Apple and Nvidia also saw tens of billions of dollars in short positions.
The real anomaly is not the amount.
2. 34% of outstanding shares being shorted is the real pressure
Most large blue-chip stocks typically have a short selling ratio of less than 5%.
If it exceeds 10%, the market will start to pay attention; If it exceeds 20%, the risk of short squeezes will increase significantly.
Now, about 34% of SpaceX's outstanding shares have been shorted, and nearly 49% of freely circulated shares have been lent out.
This means both bulls and bears are concentrating their bets here.
As soon as expectations change, stock price fluctuations can be rapidly amplified.
3. Why did the earnings report exceed expectations, but bears actually increased?
This is the most thought-provoking aspect of the whole matter.
SpaceX's first financial report after going public was actually quite good:
Revenue was $7.81 billion, up 92% year-on-year; Losses narrowed significantly, far exceeding market expectations.
Normally, a positive earnings report should prompt short covering.
But the market did not.
Because what Wall Street really worries about is cash flow in the coming years.
4. What is the market betting on?
The logic behind the bears mainly focuses on three points.
First, capital expenditure.
SpaceX invested $18.4 billion in one quarter, with $15.8 billion continuing to be invested in AI infrastructure. The market is concerned that burning cash will outpace profits.
Second, the pressure to lift the ban.
On August 6, the first batch of lock-up shares was unlocked, with up to about $100 billion in chips potentially entering the market, marking a significant increase in short-term supply.
Third, valuation.
The market does not deny SpaceX's long-term value, but doubts whether such aggressive investment can translate into profits as expected.
In other words:
The market acknowledges it will make money, but the market is betting it won't last until the day profits materialize.
5. What is "Max Q"?
Morgan Stanley used a very vivid term:
Max Q。
This is the moment during the rocket's ascent that bears the greatest air resistance and structural pressure.
Passing through quickly reduces resistance.
If you can't hold on, the mission is over.
Today, SpaceX faces a similar test.
It's not about business collapse, nor about product failure.
Instead, high investment, high valuations, and large-scale unlocks are all concentrated at the same time.
The end
Ten years ago, Wall Street was also firmly short Tesla.
The reasons are almost the same: burning cash too fast, valuations too high, and eventually collapsing.
As a result, short sellers accumulated losses of tens of billions of dollars.
Now, they are placing the same bet on SpaceX.
This time, will Wall Street win, or will Musk once again cross his own "Max Q"? 这轮历史性冲顶不是单纯的资金狂欢，而是企业盈利与技术革命共同作用的产物。我看到的是AI产业链带来的生产力跃迁已经开始兑现到财报数字里，而非停留在概念炒作阶段。$BTC企稳在64500美元上方，$ETH同步走强至1898美元，风险资产的联动效应正在强化。 前十大权重股掌握近四成市值，这背后是强者恒强的马太效应。定价权、现金流、技术壁垒构成了真正的护城河，让这些巨头在经济周期波动中展现出避险资产的属性。场外数万亿美元资金在降息预期下虎视眈眈，货币基金里的观望资金随时可能转化为入场买盘。 7700点确实包含了情绪溢价，但这不等于泡沫破裂的前兆。真正的风险点在于流动性收缩和盈利增速下滑的共振，而目前这两项指标都未出现恶化信号。标普500的走势对加密市场具有重要的风向标意义，美股稳则风险偏好延续，$BTC和$ETH的上涨空间才能进一步打开。 数据支撑着结构性长牛的判断，这一轮行情的高波动特征要求我们不能用传统牛市的单边思维来应对。分化行情中精选优质资产，比盲目追高更重要。历史新高的位置既是压力也是动力，趋势没有反转之前，保持参与度就是最好的策略。 标普500 #Circle财报后押注Arc，US
Circle's financial report includes:
Circle's Q2 2026 revenue grew 6.57% year-over-year to $701 million, but fell short of market expectations; Net profit surged 110% year-on-year to $48.221 million, exceeding expectations, driven by increased USDC circulating supply and improved non-interest income, with profitability significantly recovered. USDC is still growing. The company also started making money again. However, the month-on-month data already shows signs of fatigue. Rate cuts will continue to suppress income. Right now, Circle is still a highly volatile interest stock with high volatility. The launch of the Arc mainnet on September 16 is Circle's chance to secure a second round of pricing.
The earnings report did not break into the storm, but growth has slowed Circle's total revenue and reserves in Q2 were $701 million, up 7% year-over-year. Net profit was $48.21 million. Diluted earnings per share were $0.18. Adjusted EBITDA was $143 million, up 8% year-over-year. Looking solely at the year-on-year view, there are no major issues. USDC's circulating supply at quarter-end reached $73.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year. On-chain transaction volume reached $14.8 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 151%. These numbers are significant. But when you put the second and first quarters together, the situation isn't so pretty. In the first quarter, USDC circulating supply was $77 billion. In the second quarter, it dropped to $73.3 billion. Circle minted $83 billion worth of USDC this quarter and redeemed $87 billion. Net outflow of $4 billion. ChainToday's market is focused on three key points:
$BTC ：
1. 63,800 - 64,000 is the first support
2. 64,900 - 65,000 is the first pressure
3. Holding support only indicates the market remains stable; only when it stands above resistance can it be considered a continued strength
$ETH ：
1. Near 1,600 is short-term psychological support
2. 1,650 - 1,670 is the first pressure zone
3. The most important thing now is not whether ETH has risen, but whether ETH/BTC has strengthened
Overall, today seems more like BTC fixing the price first, ETH still waiting to take over, and altcoins still waiting for rotation confirmation.
Do you think today should you watch BTC hold its position first, or wait for ETH to take over?
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH #市场轮动大盘不暴跌，但赚钱越来越难
现在盘面有一个很反直觉的现象：BTC没有大跌，ETF也断断续续有资金流入，但大多数人操作很难盈利。根源不是技术不行，而是市场已经完成机构化改造，老交易逻辑正在失效。
BTC被困在62300‑64500区间来回磨。机构借ETF缓慢布局，但资金走托管通道，不会留下链上转账记录，传统链上指标参考价值大打折扣。很多人看链上冷清就看空，却忽略了场外机构资金正在悄悄进场。
资金出现明显分裂：机构只认准BTC，对山寨保持谨慎；大饼横盘，散户无处赚钱，就跑去小币追逐脉冲行情。这种上涨只是存量资金内部搬家，不是增量资金入场。小币涨得猛，退潮同样飞快。
另外要留意合约隐患：近期反弹不少是杠杆多头推起来，现货跟进不足。杠杆撑起的行情脆性很大，一旦美债收益率抬升、纳指转弱，容易快速插针清洗止损。
关键价位速记
阻力：64500‑65000，放量站稳才会打开上行空间
支撑：62300，失守会测试60000关口
两个常见误区
1、ETF持续流入=马上大涨。机构是分批配置，只负责托底盘，不负责拉盘。
2、赛道叙事宏大=币价必涨。币圈一贯叙事先行落地滞后，好听的故事不等于代币收益兑现。
小结
当下属于机构托底，散户博弈的过渡期。没有系统性暴跌风险，但也没有轰轰烈烈大行情。
最大风险不是大盘崩盘，而是在反复震荡、山寨轮动中慢慢亏掉本金。不必到处追逐热点，耐心等待确定性信号，远比赌方向重要。
$BTC $ETH #SandiskBeatAndBuyback Sandisk beat expectations, announced another $14B buyback… and still fell after hours 😅
Q4 revenue hit $8.97B with adjusted EPS of $39.25, but softer Q1 guidance spoiled the party. Classic market behavior: yesterday’s beat matters less than tomorrow’s outlook 📉
AI storage demand clearly isn’t the problem anymore. Now it’s all about whether NAND pricing and high-bandwidth flash demand can justify the valuation.
Big buyback, cautious guidance — which signal are you trusting more? 👀截至8月5日，存储芯片板块年内上涨56.33%，光通信模块上涨55.22%，CPO上涨47.15%，PCB上涨47.06%，先进封装上涨40.15%。
但最近20个交易日，先进封装下跌24.65%，存储芯片下跌21.61%，PCB下跌19.64%，光通信模块下跌18.15%。
这种“年内大涨、短期大跌”的组合说明，科技股并不是突然失去基本面，而是前期股价上涨太快，已经提前反映了2026年甚至2027年的部分业绩增长。
前期硬件股大涨，已经提前反映了订单增长、产品涨价、产能扩张和利润释放。到了现在，市场关注的问题已经从“2026年业绩好不好”，转向“2027年还能保持多快的增长”。
因此，中报业绩增长100%，不等于股价一定上涨。
如果市场原来预期增长150%，实际增长100%，股价可能下跌；如果市场原来只预期增长30%，实际增长50%，股价反而可能上涨。
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ $BTC $ETH $SNDK #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？
Circle 交出了一份盈利超预期、营收略逊、股价先扬后抑的二季报。市场的第一反应很直接：利息收入见顶了，增长故事要换引擎。
二季度数字摆在这里：总营收+储备收入7.01亿美元，同比增7%，但低于华尔街约7.17亿美元的预期；净利润4800万美元，同比大增5.3亿美元（去年同期因IPO相关费用大幅亏损）；调整后EBITDA 1.43亿美元，增8%。USDC期末流通量733亿美元，同比增19%，但环比从一季度末的约770亿美元回落；平均流通量创下765亿美元新高；链上交易量则飙到14.8万亿美元，同比暴增151%。储备收益率掉到3.5%，同比降66个基点——利率下行环境下，靠美债利息吃饭的日子越来越紧。
股价盘前一度大涨，随后回落，最终下跌约3%-4%。分析师的分歧也明显：有人盯着USDC份额微降、环比流通量收缩和利润率压力，给出Underperform；有人则把目光投向 Arc? Circle真正想讲的故事。
Arc才是这份财报的核心!
Circle同步宣布，自有Layer-1区块链Arc将于9月16日正式上线主网。创始验证节点阵容几乎是机构圈的“全明星”：BlackRock、DTCC、Visa、Mastercard、ICE、Standard Chartered、Galaxy、MoneyGram、SBI Group、Sumitomo、Global Payments，加上Circle自己。BlackRock计划把BUIDL（其美元机构数字流动性基金）部署到Arc上，DTCC则探索把托管资产代币化后落地在这张网上。
Arc 的设计很明确：用USDC做原生Gas，亚秒级最终性，可选隐私，EVM兼容。测试网已经跑了超过5亿笔交易、近300万钱包，几乎零宕机。私有主网已有100多家机构和生态方在上面建设。更关键的是，ARC代币预售已完成约2.42亿美元（约8.075亿枚，0.3美元/枚，对应约30亿美元完全稀释估值），a16z crypto领投，BlackRock等也参与其中。Circle据此大幅上调全年“其他收入”指引至3.1亿-3.3亿美元（原指引1.5亿-1.7亿），其中约1.8亿美元来自ARC代币收入确认。
这不是简单的“多发一个币”。Circle在做的，是把自己从“稳定币发行商”升级成“互联网金融基础设施提供商”。USDC不再只是躺在储备账户里吃利息的资产，而是Arc网络上的结算货币和Gas。机构用BUIDL、用代币化证券、用实时支付、用AI Agent结算时，USDC天然成为首选。交易量越大、场景越深，USDC的流通和黏性就越强！这是利息收入之外的第二条增长曲线。
USDC真的能因此迎来新增长吗？
短期看，答案取决于两件事：主网落地后的实际采用速度，以及机构是否真把资金和流程搬过来。
有利因素很清晰：
第一，验证节点本身就是客户。BlackRock、DTCC、Visa这些玩家既是安全网的维护者，也是潜在的最大用户。他们把资产、支付、清算放到Arc上，等于直接给USDC引流。
第二，代币化资产和AI Agent经济是真实需求。RWA赛道正在爆发，机构需要一个合规、可预测、美元计价的结算层；AI Agent需要可编程、即时、低摩擦的支付。Arc的定位正好卡在这个缺口上。
第三，Circle已经拿到OCC国民信托牌照和纽约信托许可，合规护城河在加深。
但风险同样真实。USDC目前仍高度依赖储备利息（占比超95%）。Arc的“其他收入”短期内主要来自一次性代币确认，真正的网络费用、质押收益、生态激励要等主网上线后才能验证。验证节点名单漂亮，不代表交易量和锁仓会立刻跟上。竞争也在加剧！其他公链、传统金融的内部链、甚至OpenUSD等新稳定币都在抢同一块蛋糕。利率如果继续下行，利息收入压力不会立刻消失。
更根本的问题是：Circle能否把漂亮的机构背书转化成真正的、可持续的、高频率的链上经济活动？测试网数据好看，主网才是考验。如果9月16日之后几个月，BUIDL真实部署、机构结算量起来、开发者活跃度持续，USDC的流通量和交易深度就会被重新定价。如果只是热闹一阵，那市场会迅速回到“利息驱动、份额承压”的旧叙事。
总结一下我的判断：
Circle这次财报后的动作，本质是主动换引擎。利息收入见顶不是秘密，Arc 是它给出的答案，用自有基础设施把USDC从资产变成网络原生货币。机构验证节点和代币预售给了故事可信度，上调的指引也显示管理层自己对这条路径有信心。
USDC能否迎来新增长，不取决于二季度那几个百分点的营收差额，而取决于Arc主网上线后的执行力。如果执行到位，USDC的增长逻辑会从“利率+市场情绪”切换到“基础设施+真实使用”，长期天花板会明显抬高。如果执行不及预期，那它就还是一个高度依赖宏观利率的稳定币发行商。
9月16日是关键观察点。在那之前，市场会继续用 Arc 叙事溢价来交易Circle；在那之后，一切都要用真实数据说话。$SKHYNIX 美光不是跌不动，它是反应迟钝，等闪迪，海力士跌完，它就跟着跌了，我观察很久了，它跌的时候慢几个小时到一天，涨的时候也一样，反而是每次闪迪和海力士是带头的，所以你看不清认不准时就看闪迪，然后操作美光准没错一觉醒来，今天的收益又增加了，有些时候不关注价格走势反而会涨，一直盯着看却不能有一个好的走势，
心情没有很高兴也没有太大的波动，我的想法就是每天挣50就满足，在这个残酷的市场上不亏则盈，大家想要在市场上面活的就，不能够太贪心
分享今天心得
浮盈不是你的钱，落袋或者移动止损才是
账户上面的盈利只是账面数字，行情反转可以瞬间全部回吐。有浮盈之后，必须上保护止损，保住部分利润，不能坐视浮盈变亏损。
$BTC $ETH $SNDK @天才交易员绿毛 @BTC星辰 @OKX中文 @OKX星球 Good morning, family. After a nap, I came back to watch the market. Last night's warning about KDJ going 80 was fulfilled, but not to skyrocket—it stalled on the spot. Current price $BTC 64,539, basically no move compared to last night's 64,594.9, a wasted night's effort, effectively ruining a winning hand that was stuck in place.
A closer look at the indicators makes it clearer. KDJ cooled across the board from last night's K76.5, D74.9, and J79.7 to now K65.5, D68.8, J58.7. The overbought alert has been lifted, but instead of pullback, it's a sideways movement that keeps you from rising. MACD is even more telling: the STICK bar shrank from last night's 212.8 to 6.2, almost flat, and the momentum is almost exhausted. This bullish candlestick really has no strength left.
My target $BTC at 65,026.6 is the 24-hour high. The higher level mentioned last night at 66,000 was never touched and was already abandoned. Now the price is holding onto the support zone of 64,324 to 64,455, giving the bulls some face. Guys, at this level, my suggestion is to bring a small bench. Don't keep thinking about bottom-fishing and topping. Holding moving average support means consolidating sideways and continuing to grind. Once it breaks below 63,000, the bottom pants mentioned yesterday might not be held either. Let's just watch the show for now and don't get carried away. $BTC This coin user's view is:
Bitcoin is currently showing a bullish divergence almost identical to the bottom in 2022, and several major resonance signals suggest that a bottom may have formed.
The other party also emphasized that it is still in the manipulation phase, with the only hesitation being that it has not yet entered the fourth quarter.
The confirmation of the $BTC bottom in 2022 was not based on a single price rebound, but on the resonance of multiple capital actions:
Selling pressure exhausted (large-scale losses)
Extreme Undervaluation (MVRV/NUPL)
Strong players continue to accumulate shares (LTH + whale accumulation + net exchange outflow)
Leverage Clearing (Funding Rates, Liquidation)
After these signals appeared concentrated in November, the market began to shift from "capitulation and sell-off" to "bottom-up accumulation," finally officially starting a new round of gains at the beginning of 2023.
The historical law is: bottoms often form at the moment of greatest pain and doubt, not when everyone cheers "bottomed out." Capital behavior is more reliable than technological forms because the flow of money ultimately determines the balance of supply and demand.
For ordinary traders, what truly matters is not copying others' pattern judgments, but distinguishing between what has already happened and what is just a projection of the future.
Divergence can alert you to pay attention, but it cannot determine the size and timing of your position.
Similarities are indeed hard to ignore, but the market never automatically bottoms out just because they look alike.
#黄金重返4200美元, why hasn't BTC risen in line with the rise? 早就说了， $SPCX 反弹就空。有解锁这种实打实的利空摆在那，根本不用怕。
就算第二季度的财报表现很好摆在那也解决不了市场抛压。有解锁事件的股票，大部分情况下都是解锁前拉盘（高价出货），解锁后承压消化。除非是有强资金硬顶，否则很少看到大规模解锁之后还能持续上涨。
而且我发现很多人对这次 9.115亿股解锁 没有概念。
简单算一下： $SPCX 上市之后一直是典型的低流通股票，虽然整体市值很大，但真正进入二级市场交易的股份非常少，初始流通比例只有 4.9%。这也是为什么之前价格能够被市场快速推高——筹码太少，资金稍微推动一下，价格弹性就非常大。但这次不一样。此次解锁的 9.115亿股，占总股本约6.9%，甚至比最开始流通的股份还多。
也就是说：
解锁前：
流通比例约 4.9%
解锁后：
流通比例直接提升到约 11.8%流通盘直接翻了一倍以上。
这是什么概念？相当于市场突然多出来一批可以交易的股票，原本稀缺的筹码优势被明显削弱。当然，财报公布之后 $SPCX 确实出现了一波反弹，主要是AI业务大幅度增长。
但问题是，好财报≠没有卖压。所以看问题还是看本质。
黑色幽默的是 4小时 K线画了个 大火箭#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
On August 5 local time, flash memory giant SanDisk released its Q4 earnings report, which far exceeded market expectations. Data shows the company's **earnings per share (EPS) reached $39.25**, nearly 18% higher than analysts' consensus estimate of $33.28; **Quarterly revenue was about $8.96 billion**, a year-on-year surge of 371.6%, an astonishing pace of growth.
The core engine behind the soaring performance is undoubtedly **the hunger for high-performance enterprise-grade SSDs and NAND flash in AI data centers**. With the expansion of large model training and inference computing power clusters, storage bandwidth and capacity have become bottlenecks. As a leading supplier, SanDisk has fully benefited from this round of "selling shovels" dividends. The company also raised its next quarter revenue guidance to **10.3 billion ~ 10.8 billion USD**, continuing to far exceed Wall Street forecasts and demonstrating management's strong confidence in sustained prosperity.
More impressive than the results was the board-approved **$14 billion stock repurchase plan**. Based on current market capitalization, the plan can repurchase approximately **6.6% of the outstanding shares**, a rare strength among tech stocks. Buybacks are usually seen as signals that management believes the stock price is undervalued and cash flow is ample.
However, the market reaction was not a one-sided celebration. After the earnings release, SanDisk's stock price actually fell about 3% in after-hours trading. The reason is that the stock once surged **596%** in 2026, then fell more than 50% from its June peak. The intense profit-taking pressure has prevailed the inertia of "selling as soon as good news is realized." Additionally, some investors remain wary of **NAND price cycle fluctuations** and **potential oversupply**, worrying that the current hyper-high growth may not be sustained in the long term.
In the field of on-chain data tracking, an address with a strong track record in the storage sector ('0x0ad...') once again demonstrated its mastery of rhythm. Before the earnings release—a point when the market generally expects high growth but the stock price has already pulled back sharply—the following actions were taken:
- **Precise selling**: Sold 3,890.8 units of SNDK (SanDisk stock token or related derivatives) at an average price of about $1,390,**, earning a profit of about $401,000,**, perfectly avoiding the brief selling pressure after the earnings report.
- **Low Order Orders**: Meanwhile, this address placed orders at two price levels: **$1187** and **$1300**, buying a total of **5952.3 units** SNDK, planning to invest about **$7.5 million** to build a larger position, betting on a rebound after the pullback.
Notably, since June 25, 2026, this address has profited from all 11 major transactions on the two storage giants, Micron (MU) and SanDisk (SNDK), with cumulative net gains of approximately $2.83 million. This near-error-free record has made his moves seen as a short-term sentiment indicator.
Currently, SanDisk is caught in a tug-of-war between **strong fundamentals vs. high stock price volatility**. Bulls believe that AI storage demand has not yet peaked, buyback plans provide bottom support, and valuations have already been significantly digested from high levels; Bears worry about the end of the NAND price hike cycle, competitors' capacity expansions, and macroeconomic uncertainties.
For ordinary investors, in the short term, attention should be paid to the support effectiveness in the **$1180~1300** range (i.e., the smart money order zone), as well as ongoing signals from subsequent AI storage orders. In the medium to long term, whether SanDisk can transform from a "cyclical stock" into a "growth stock" will be key to its valuation restructuring.早就说了， $SPCX 反弹就空。有解锁这种实打实的利空摆在那，根本不用怕。
就算第二季度的财报表现很好摆在那也解决不了市场抛压。有解锁事件的股票，大部分情况下都是解锁前拉盘（高价出货），解锁后承压消化。除非是有强资金硬顶，否则很少看到大规模解锁之后还能持续上涨。
而且我发现很多人对这次 9.115亿股解锁 没有概念。
简单算一下： $SPCX 上市之后一直是典型的低流通股票，虽然整体市值很大，但真正进入二级市场交易的股份非常少，初始流通比例只有 4.9%。
这也是为什么之前价格能够被市场快速推高——筹码太少，资金稍微推动一下，价格弹性就非常大。但这次不一样。此次解锁的 9.115亿股，占总股本约6.9%，甚至比最开始流通的股份还多。
也就是说：
解锁前：
流通比例约 4.9%
解锁后：
流通比例直接提升到约 11.8%
流通盘直接翻了一倍以上。这是什么概念？相当于市场突然多出来一批可以交易的股票，原本稀缺的筹码优势被明显削弱。
当然，财报公布之后 $SPCX 确实出现了一波反弹，主要是AI业务大幅度增长。
但问题是，好财报≠没有卖压。所以看问题还是看本质。
黑色幽默的是 4小时 K线画了个 大火箭📊 $ZEC合约爆仓速递（8月6日）
根据爆仓数据，这波空头被狗庄按在地上疯狂摩擦了。。。
过去1小时爆仓金额约60.23美元
多单爆仓约60.23美元
空单爆仓约0美元
过去4小时爆仓金额约16.44万美元
多单爆仓约12.17万美元
空单爆仓约4.27万美元
过去12小时爆仓金额约55.03万美元
多单爆仓约21.53万美元
空单爆仓约33.50万美元
过去24小时爆仓金额约131.66万美元
多单爆仓约33.72万美元
空单爆仓约97.94万美元
从$ZEC爆仓数据看，1小时空头爆仓碾压多头，逼空闪击开局；4小时空头优势扩大，空头是多头的近3倍，逼空全面爆发；12小时空头仍遥遥领先，比例约1.56倍，逼空贯穿短中周期；24小时空头爆仓飙升至97.94万美元，是多头的2.9倍，狗庄在ZEC上完成了对空头的全周期屠杀——短中长周期空头被全方位定向爆破，累计爆仓突破131万美元。空头血流成河，逼空行情势如破竹。大家控制好仓位，别被来回收割。
🔥 市场风向标 | 8月6日
今日三条热点，指向同一主题：市场已进入"不仅要好，还要好到无可挑剔"的阶段——"超预期"只是入场券，任何瑕疵都会被放大。
💾 闪迪：372%增长+140亿回购，仍被"不够惊艳"击倒
闪迪交出炸裂财报：Q4营收89.7亿美元，同比暴增372%；调整后EPS达39.25美元，是一年前的135倍；董事会批准140亿美元股票回购计划。全年营收202.5亿美元，同比增长175%。
然而，盘后股价一度重挫近8%。元凶是下一季度指引——营收中值105.5亿美元，低于市场预期的108.2亿美元。毛利率83%-85%的指引暗示高毛利可能进入平台期。372%的增长不够，140亿的回购不够——市场要的是"完美"。
💳 Circle：USDC增长稳健，Arc成新叙事
8月5日盘前，稳定币巨头Circle交出Q2成绩单：总营收7.01亿美元，同比增长7%；净利润4800万美元，较去年同期扭亏。USDC流通量达733亿美元，同比增长19%；链上交易量14.8万亿美元，同比暴涨151%。
最大看点是Arc——公司大幅上调全年其他收入指引至3.1-3.3亿美元，主要反映Q2确认的2.42亿美元Arc代币预售收入。USDC是基本盘，Arc才是市场押注的未来。在加密支付渗透率持续提升的背景下，Circle正试图从"稳定币发行商"升级为"加密金融基础设施平台"。
🚀 SpaceX：营收翻倍，解禁洪峰才是真正的风暴
8月4日盘后，SpaceX首份财报亮相：Q2营收78.14亿美元，同比增长92%，远超预期的69亿美元；调整后EBITDA达35亿美元。
盘后股价一度暴跌超9%。资本开支飙升至184亿美元，是去年同期的6.5倍——市场奖励的是花钱的效率，而非烧钱的速度。更大的风暴在8月6日：约9.12亿股限售股解禁，解禁市值高达1140亿美元，相当于当前流通盘的1.4倍。上市不到两个月，股价已从高点近乎腰斩。
💎 总结
闪迪用372%的增长换来了盘后暴跌，SpaceX用92%的营收增速换来了市场用脚投票——"超预期"已成及格线，只有"完美"才能让投资者满意。
当AI赛道从"讲故事"全面进入"交答卷"的阶段，指引的每一分偏差、资本开支的每一块钱，都会被放在聚光灯下反复审视。旧逻辑正在崩塌，新定价权正在形成——而它惩罚的是所有"不够完美"的答案。#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权
#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？
#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ Brothers, do you understand today's market divergence? $SNDK Plummeted, SK Hynix crashed too, but Micron couldn't move!
$SKHYNIX Let's first look at the first question: why did SK Hynix also drop sharply?
SK Hynix and Sandisk mainly focus on storage chips, with fully tied fundamentals. Institutions won't sell just one stock, but will sell off the entire storage sector in bulk for risk-hedging
$MU Second question: Why has Micron's decline been relatively mild?
First, the chip structure is different. Micron's previous upward pace was smoother, unlike Sandisk and SK Hynix, which had short-term aggressive rallies and less concentrated take-profit selling pressure, so there was no large-scale stampede foundation
Second, the business structure is different: Micron's automotive and industrial storage businesses account for a higher proportion, making the automotive chip cycle more stable, which helps hedge against cyclical negatives
Third, many hedge funds treat Micron as a safe-haven asset in the storage sector, with stronger capital absorption
Now, do you understand? 😎
#Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth? $SNDK $BTC The small non-farm payrolls surprised on the downside; Friday is the real main event.
The US July ADP data is out, showing 44,000 new jobs added, with an expectation of 65,000, and last month was 95,000. It was cut in half directly, hitting a new low for the year $SNDK
The goods-producing sector directly lost 3,000 jobs, indicating the real economy is indeed cooling down. The service sector is still holding up but clearly not as strong as before. However, wage data is still rising, with salaries for job switchers up 7% and those staying up 4.4%. Without wage decreases, inflation won't come down, so the Fed folks still find it hard to ease up. $SKHYNIX
Fed Chair Powell just said last week that the labor market is steady and stable, but then the data came in below expectations. Within the Fed, three voting members already support a rate hike, showing significant disagreement. If Friday's official non-farm payroll data aligns with ADP, then expectations for rate cuts will be pushed back again, and inflation pressure remains $MU
Bloomberg's survey expects 80,000 new official non-farm jobs on Friday, up from 57,000 in June. But with ADP like this, no one can say for sure if Friday's data will also disappoint.
For the market, this is a period of dilemma. Good data raises fears of rate hikes, bad data raises fears of recession—there are reasons to fall either way. This kind of sentiment is not surprising; it's safer to wait for Friday's results before deciding on direction, so don't rush to act 财报数据看着全是利好，闪迪为什么反而跌惨了$SNDK
跟大伙复盘下刚结束的闪迪这一笔操作，昨天 1420 美元开的 10 倍空单，今天 1270 美元全部离场，到手盈利 4450U，回报率 104%。
其实这笔交易，重点不是赚了多少钱，而是把前一晚分析的观点，实实在在落到仓位里面。闪迪真正的隐患，并不是财报做的烂，而是业绩必须强到超出所有人想象，股价才撑得住。
这次财报纸面数据其实相当能打。季度营收 89.7 亿美元，比预期 84.8 亿美元要高；调整后 EPS39.25 美元，同样优于预期 34.96 美元，数据中心收入直接涨了 103%，毛利率也来到 84.6%。就算数据这么好看，盘后股价照样一度跌超 12%。
根源就看下一季的业绩指引。公司给到营收 103‑108 亿美元，EPS44‑46 美元，单独看依旧很不错，但已经没办法再突破被炒高的市场期待。这只标的年内涨幅接近 470%，散户和资金想要的已经不只是正常增长，而是不断给到意外惊喜。
当业绩指引仅仅达标，没有继续超预期，前期进场的资金就会选择落袋跑路，做空机会也就来了。再对照 SpaceX、AMD 之前的走势，历史已经给过现成参考。
我抓的就是预期差：财报还没公布，股价就已经提前拉涨，市场的期待被抬到顶点，相比继续往上冲，向下回调的可能性要大得多。
很多散户一看财报漂亮，就理所应当觉得股价会涨。但盘面炒的不只是已经公布的成绩，还要对比市场提前脑补出来的期望值差距有多大。AMD 是这样，SpaceX 是这样，闪迪也逃不开这个规律。
选择 1270 美元全部平仓，是财报带来的这波预期差行情已经走完。要是继续拿着，交易逻辑就变成赌存储周期反转，那就是完全另一回事。
能看对行情、写出分析都不算难。难的是行情火热的时候敢于下手，利润到位之后果断收手。
这一次顺利获利，不代表每一次都能如愿。单次盈利只代表这次逻辑奏效，守好止损，到点位就止盈，才可以长久待在市场里面。
后续我会持续跟踪存储板块其他标的，整理好短线实操思路，有机会会及时分享出来。
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 家人们，闪迪财报出来了，数字本身很硬，但盘后的走势说明市场要的不只是这些。
营收89.7亿美元，高于预期的84.8亿。调整后EPS39.25美元，高于预期的34.96。AI存储需求还在实打实地支撑业绩，毛利率81.4%，也略超预期。公司还批准了新增140亿美元股票回购授权，加上已有的总回购额度达到155亿美元，相当于当前市值约10%。
但盘后跌了超过11个点。问题出在下一季度的指引上，FY2027Q1营收指引103到108亿美元，中值低于市场共识，市场之前已经把这个数字推得太高了。另外HBF作为新赛道还没有明确的商业化时间表，存储涨价逻辑虽然还在，但已经开始出现分歧。
群里已经有人在喊“泄了”了，手动止损的也不少。这票从底部反弹上来，浮盈盘本来就厚，指引低于预期就是最好的获利了结理由。
米哥说几句。业绩超预期是真的，回购155亿美元也是真的，但市场在财报季的交易逻辑已经变了——当季数字只是入场券，指引才是定价的关键。闪迪这份财报，前面的功课全做对了，最后一道大题没答到满分，就被扣了分。
长期来看，AI存储需求没变，闪迪的行业地位也没变，155亿回购对股价是实打实的支撑。但短期波动不会小，等市场消化完这个指引缺口再说。各位觉得这轮回调是上车机会还是趋势反转的信号？评论区聊聊。$BTC $SNDK $SPCX $AAPL Apple's Q3 performance hit a record high (revenue +16%, iPhone +22%), but its stock price fell nearly 10%.
$
The reason is simple: the guidance for next quarter is only 9%-11%, below expectations.
Tim Cook put it bluntly—it's not poor demand, but that sales are too good, and chip and memory supply can't keep up. AI data centers drive up memory prices, directly pushing down to gross margins.
Demand remains, but supply has become the biggest bottleneck.Gold has taken off
Tonight, the US small nonfarm payroll data was significantly below expectations. The market forecast dropped from 89,000 to 65,000, but the actual number was only 44,000. Gold immediately took off on the spot, breaking through the $4,300 mark, reaching the highest point in six weeks.
There are multiple positive factors behind this surge.
Previously, gold was firmly suppressed because three men jointly pushed the US dollar index high: Trump stirred up Middle East geopolitical tensions, Bassett was responsible for lowering US Treasury yields, and Walsh was in charge of the hawkish Federal Reserve. Now the situation has changed—Trump has finally eased on the Middle East issue, and a US-Iran peace agreement is likely; Bassett turned to firefighting the yen, lifting the yen and pushing the US dollar index down; Walsh stumbled at the July FOMC meeting, with verbal rate hike talk proving empty, damaging Wall Street’s trust in the Fed’s credibility.
Additionally, the US debt is about to surpass the $40 trillion mark, and in September there is the risk of a government shutdown. These are all blows to US national credit and dollar hegemony. Gold’s rise is very reasonable.
Whether gold will soar or slowly build a base and rebound mainly depends on whether the US dollar index can stay below 100 and the subsequent actions of the three men mentioned above. Trump should stop flip-flopping on the Middle East issue, what tricks Bassett has after firefighting the yen, and how Walsh will speak at the global central bank annual meeting on August 27 will all have important impacts on the next phase of the US dollar index.
I will personally continue to track these key variables. The gold window has opened, but new investors should not heavily invest; a family allocation of 5-10% is enough. AI remains the main theme at present.
The above is only my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Please be aware of the risks. #SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck 纯手工帖，非AI
财报里的速度不在一条线上。二季度USDC流通量增到733亿美元，同比涨19%；总收入和储备收益只增7%。币转得更快，利润却没有同步提速。
Arc把故事往后推到了九月主网上线。问题是市场今天没肯提前买单：股价在59.13—69.52美元之间来回折腾，最后只收63.28。同期SPY跌0.23%，不是系统性RISK OFF，是高位追价资金自己撤了。
$CRCL暂不开、观察。59—60美元守住、再收复69.5才开多；收盘跌破59就放弃这次财报修复。单笔最大亏损控制在总资金2%。数据截至北京时间八月六日十时二十四分。
#Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #Circle财报 #稳定币 #美股风险📊 $CORE Contract Liquidation Express (August 6)
According to liquidation data, short-term bulls are being pinned down and rubbed wildly, but long-term bears are starting to fight back...
The liquidation amount in the past hour was about $562.97
Long liquidation was about $562.97
Short liquidation is about $0
The liquidation amount in the past 4 hours was about $666.80
Long liquidation was about $562.97
Short liquidation was about $103.83
The liquidation amount in the past 12 hours was approximately $1,759.79
The long liquidation was about $1,568.42
Short liquidation was about $191.37
The liquidation amount in the past 24 hours was approximately $1,759.79
The long liquidation was about $1,568.42
Short liquidation was about $191.37
From $CORE liquidation data, within 1 hour, all long positions were monopolized, short positions were zero, and the short position started with a flash kill; The 4-hour bullish advantage persisted, with bulls 5.4 times the bears, showing a full-scale bullish sell-off; the 12-hour and 24-hour bullish advantages further expanded, rising to 8.2 times, with bullish selling running through the short- to medium-term cycle. Dog Farm completed a full-cycle slaughter of bulls on CORE—short-, medium, and long-term bulls were targeted and exploded from all directions, and the bears' resistance was just a drop in the bucket, with cumulative liquidations of less than $1,800. Although the scale is very small, the direction is highly consistent. Everyone should control their positions carefully to avoid being bought back.
🔥 Market Barometer | August 6
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: the market has entered a stage of "not only good, but flawlessly"—"exceeding expectations" is just an entry ticket; any flaw will be magnified.
💾 SanDisk: 372% growth + 14 billion buybacks, still knocked down by "not impressive enough."
SanDisk delivers explosive financial report: Q4 revenue reached $8.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%; Adjusted EPS reached $39.25, 135 times that of a year earlier; the board approved a $14 billion share buyback plan. Full-year revenue was $20.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 175%.
However, in after-hours trading, the stock price plunged nearly 8% at one point. The culprit is the next quarter guidance—median revenue of $10.55 billion, below the market expectation of $10.82 billion. The guidance of a gross margin of 83%-85% suggests that high gross margins may enter a plateau phase. 372% growth is insufficient, and the 14 billion yuan buyback is insufficient—what the market wants is "perfection."
💳 Circle: USDC grows steadily, Arc takes on a new narrative
Before the market opened on August 5, stablecoin giant Circle delivered its Q2 results: total revenue of $701 million, up 7% year-on-year; Net profit was $48 million, turning profitable compared to the same period last year. USDC circulating supply reached $73.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%; On-chain trading volume reached $14.8 trillion, a year-on-year surge of 151%.
The biggest highlight is Arc—the company significantly raised its full-year guidance for other revenue to $310–$330 million, mainly reflecting the $242 million Arc token presale revenue recognized in Q2. USDC is the foundation; Arc is the future the market is betting on. Against the backdrop of rising crypto payment penetration, Circle is attempting to upgrade from a "stablecoin issuer" to a "crypto financial infrastructure platform."
🚀 SpaceX: Revenue doubles, and the real storm is the unlocking flood peak
After the market closed on August 4, SpaceX's first earnings report was released: Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, up 92% year-on-year, far exceeding the expected $6.9 billion; Adjusted EBITDA reached $3.5 billion.
After hours, the stock price once plunged more than 9%. Capital expenditure soared to $18.4 billion, 6.5 times the same period last year—the market values efficiency in spending rather than burning through it. An even bigger storm occurred on August 6: about 912 million restricted shares were unlocked, bringing the unlocking market value to $114 billion, equivalent to 1.4 times the current outstanding shares. In less than two months after listing, the stock price has nearly halved from its peak.
💎 Summary
SanDisk's 372% growth led to the after-hours plunge, while SpaceX's 92% revenue growth earned the market's vote with its feet—"better" has become the passing line; only "perfection" can satisfy investors.
As the AI track moves from "storytelling" to the "answer sheet" stage, every deviation in guidance and every dollar of capital expenditure will be repeatedly scrutinized under the spotlight. Old logic is collapsing, new pricing power is taking shape—and it punishes all the answers that are "imperfect." #闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
#Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth?
#财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future? Sandisk beat the quarter. The market still wanted more.
Fiscal Q4 revenue reached $8.97B, up 51% sequentially and 372% YoY, while non-GAAP EPS came in at $39.25. The board also approved another $14B share repurchase program, taking the remaining authorization to $15.5B.
The details show how sharp, and uneven, the current flash cycle has become:
· About two-thirds of sequential revenue growth came from higher pricing, versus one-third from volume
· Datacenter revenue doubled quarter over quarter to $2.98B
· Consumer revenue fell 32% over the same period
· Q4 gross margin reached 84.6%
But expectations have moved even faster. Sandisk guided fiscal Q1 revenue to $10.3B-$10.8B and non-GAAP EPS to $44-$46. Shares traded lower after hours as investors focused on guidance that did not clear elevated expectations. Still, its 83%-85% non-GAAP gross-margin outlook suggests management expects margins to remain elevated.
The expanded buyback is notable alongside strong cash generation. Q4 free cash flow reached $7.08B, or $5.04B after adjusting for Flash Ventures activity and payments tied to its new business model agreements. Sandisk signed five more NBM agreements since April, including three with new customers, bringing the total to 10. Those agreements may improve demand visibility beyond the current pricing cycle.
There is a longer-term AI angle too. Sandisk and SK hynix released the first open High Bandwidth Flash specification through the Open Compute Project, targeting up to 512GB per package and bandwidth of up to 3TB/s for AI inference.
That leaves two stories in the same report. AI storage demand is accelerating, but much of the near-term upside still comes from NAND pricing. Investor Day on Aug 13 is the next opportunity for management to explain whether HBF and contracted demand can support more durable growth.
Do you see a lasting AI storage cycle here, or are expectations already running ahead of the fundamentals?
#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #EarningsRealityCheck #闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
AI storage has truly entered the stage of profit validation
SanDisk delivered a better-than-expected report card in Q4 of FY2026, with revenue of $8.97 billion, exceeding market expectations; adjusted EPS reached $39.25, and the company added $14 billion in stock buyback plans
The greatest significance of this financial report is not just digital growth, but the AI wave is now spreading to the storage side. In the past, the market focused on AI chips, but now, as computing power expands, data storage is becoming a new bottleneck, and storage companies are beginning to reap the benefits of industrial upgrading
But the market is not entirely excited, for a simple reason: capital has shifted from "believing in AI" to "validating AI"
What will truly determine SanDisk's future valuation is not the scale of the AI story, but the storage price increase cycle, demand for high-end products, and whether profit margins can be sustained
My view is that the AI infrastructure cycle may be far from over; chips are only the first link, and storage, power, and data centers will continue to benefit. But as the market has come to this point, companies must prove their logic with performance, rather than relying on expectations to drive the market
SanDisk is enjoying the dividends of the AI era, but the next phase will be to see whether it can turn demand into long-term cash flow.
$SNDK $SPCX $GRVT Recently, the storage sector has experienced intense volatility. On August 2, Citibank released a major research report revealing a very subtle signal: it removed Micron (MU) from its 90-day upward catalyst watch list, but maintained a "Buy" rating, with a target price as high as $1400 (current price $823.03, expected total return 70.2%). For detailed Citibank research reports on Micron, please send private messages. Excerpts from Citigroup's MU research report. Many retail investors immediately want to buy when they see "buy" and "70% potential," but the subsequent content may not be detailed and analyzed. Here is my personal understanding and deduction. Let's break down the first point: what exactly does the so-called '90-day upward catalyst' mean?
In plain terms: the stage of blindly relying on "short-term sudden positive news" to drive prices up has come to an end.
Previously, Citi bet that a major event within 90 days could boost the stock price; However, after reviewing the Q2 interbank financial reports, institutions judged that short-term positive news has basically materialized, and it is unlikely that another nuclear-level event that could drive stock prices up will erupt in the next three months. With the short-term gaming window closed, institutions no longer bet on a 90-day rapid rally, which is one reason why Zibo personally is not optimistic about the storage sector reaching previous highs in the short term.
But there is a key signal: pulling off the short-term catalyst ≠ turning bearish! The long-term logic hasn't been overturned; it's just that the 'quick money window' is temporarily closed. The upcoming market will need to be gradually honed by performance and fundamentals.
Another breakdown: why do institutions remain so firmly bullish? (Two core supports)
$SNDK $MU $SKHY 美股收盘分析
一、三大指数整体盘面
道琼斯工业平均指数收涨0.49%报54349.12点，再度刷新历史新高；纳斯达克综合指数收跌0.83%报26363.44点；标普500小幅收跌0.17%报7723.55点。市场呈现明显分化，传统价值资金避险流入道指权重，高估值科技成长股集体遭抛售，纳指全天高开低走，盘中持续承压。
二、核心下跌主线：AI硬件、存储、储能赛道
1. 存储芯片板块重挫
费城半导体指数走低，存储全线走弱。闪迪SNDK常规交易日收跌5.4%，盘后财报指引不及预期再度跳水，单日高位累计回撤超12%；SK海力士ADR收跌2%，日韩存储同步大跌，亚洲科技股指受AI支出担忧全线承压。
核心利空：市场质疑云厂商AI资本开支持续加码后投入产出失衡，下游需求增长预期下调；叠加存储板块年内涨幅巨大，高位获利盘集中兑现，机构大额持仓披露进一步放大恐慌抛压。
2. 储能标的同步崩盘
储能企业Fluence Energy（FLNC正股）跟随板块情绪断崖下跌，全天跌幅超24%，资金不计成本止损出逃，赛道增量资金完全枯竭，仅少量短线抄底资金带来微弱修复，无反转动能。
3. 半导体、算力芯片普跌
AMD大跌7%，高通、ARM、阿斯麦同步走弱；仅英伟达逆势上涨3.43%，成为科技板块少数避险标的。谷歌大跌超4%，微软、亚马逊、特斯拉小幅收跌，大型科技股内部分化严重。
三、上涨板块与对冲逻辑
避险资金流向低估值价值赛道：医疗保健、原材料、传统工业板块收红；黄金板块全线走强，受益于地缘缓和带来的通胀预期降温；能源板块逆势大跌，国际油价回落压制油气企业估值。
四、行情核心驱动原因
1. AI资本开支逻辑松动
多家云厂商财报释放信号，市场开始担忧AI重资产投入回报周期拉长，资金不再无脑炒作算力硬件，高位高估值成长股迎来估值重估。
2. 高位筹码集中兑现
存储、储能、光模块上半年涨幅翻倍，积累海量浮盈，小幅分歧就引发踩踏式抛售，连锁传导至日韩、国内相关衍生品。
3. 美债收益率高位压制
长端美债利率维持高位，高估值科技股估值承压，资金持续切换至低波动价值板块。
4. 个股财报利空催化
闪迪营收超预期但下季度业绩指引不及市场预期，直接引爆存储赛道全线抛压，同步带动海力士、美光跟跌。
五、后市趋势预判
短期科技硬件、存储、储能空头趋势确立，仅存在小幅技术性反弹修复空间，反弹阶段抛压持续涌出；资金短期会持续规避高位AI硬件赛道，市场风格偏向低估值防御板块，存储、储能个股大概率延续震荡下行，持续测试阶段低点。SK Hynix: The "Perfect Storm" of AI Leaders and Breaking the Deadlock with $SKHYNIX
SK Hynix is caught in a "perfect storm": record-breaking performance but a pullback due to missing market expectations; HBM technology leads, but Samsung has surpassed Samsung in total DRAM market share. This reveals that the current investment logic in the AI sector has changed: the market only pays for "exceeding expectations" and "certainty."
Core Contradiction #SanDisk's earnings both beat expectations, adding $14 billion in buyback authorization
Explosive performance vs. higher expectations: Q2 profits surged 557%, but the previous gains overshadowed expectations, causing the earnings to plummet after the earnings report. HBM Leads vs. Market Share Loss: Although high-end HBM is strong, standard DRAM's market share has dropped from 39% to 26%, facing competition from Samsung and Micron.
Key to breaking the deadlock #FinancialReportObserver: Mixed results, unlocking imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future?
1. Locking the Future: Launching HBM4 mass production and signing long-term agreements with 10 customers to strengthen revenue bottom lines
2. Opening up new tracks: Jointly launched the HBF standard with SanDisk, filling the performance gap between HBM and SSD and capturing the AI inference market.
Trend analysis
In the short term, bearish sentiment is suppressing it, possibly fluctuating between $1060 and $1090 to find a bottom; If HBM4 shipments proceed smoothly and HBF is recognized in the medium term, valuation recovery is expected. Current valuations already reflect pessimistic expectations and offer medium- to long-term allocation value, but caution is needed regarding the risk of intensified competition.#闪迪财报双超预期, an additional $14 billion repurchase authorization was added
On the surface, SanDisk's financial report seems to be a "double exceeding expectations + large buybacks" super positive news, so why did the stock price plunge after hours?
Because the "stories" of AI storage have already been told too full, the current challenge is who can turn stories into real, sustained cash flow.
Revenue of 8.97 billion and EPS of $39.25 are indeed impressive, but don't forget, this is built on the frenzied hoarding of AI servers.
Last year, the price of a high-bandwidth flash memory rose to more than three times that of a regular SSD, and manufacturers were all scrambling to buy it.
But now the question arises: when all cloud providers have stockpiled enough, where will the next wave of growth come from?
The $14 billion buyback sounds generous, but I think it's more like a temporary measure to "appease shareholders."
After all, the market now doesn't care about how much you earned in the past, but whether you can keep earning in the future.
The median guidance for FY2027 Q1 was below expectations, which is a red flag—indicating that management itself is uncertain about demand for the second half of the year.
To put it bluntly, SNDK is now at a delicate juncture: the dividends of AI storage haven't been fully reaped, but the ceiling is already in sight.
Whether it can stabilize its valuation going forward, rather than repurchases, depends on whether it can turn the technological advantage of "high-bandwidth flash memory" into an ecosystem barrier that customers cannot live without.
Otherwise, no matter how impressive the financial report is, it won't withstand the increasingly discerning market scrutiny.
Although it has already plummeted, the current price level remains bearish. Short whenever prices rise, make a few points and then exit, enter and exit quickly.
ˉ﹃ˉ#ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧
仔细看完最新ADP数据，说说我当下的看法。
美国7月ADP私营就业仅新增4.4万人，远低于预期7.5万，创下六个月最低增幅，就业市场降温信号已经很明确。
按理说偏弱的就业数据，会削弱美联储继续加息的底气，可市场并没有形成统一预期，分歧反而越来越大。
一边资金押注就业放缓，加息压力会得到缓解；另一边美联储官员依旧反复警示通胀风险，CME数据显示9月加息25个基点的概率依旧过半。
现在加密市场博弈的核心逻辑已经变了，不再单纯盯着一份就业报告，而是权衡：就业走弱，能不能压制住顽固的通胀。
接下来重点盯两件大事，周五非农数据、下周CPI数据，这两份数据会直接左右9月美联储政策定价，也是接下来行情破局的关键。
行情不会因为单一ADP走出单边趋势，短期震荡博弈还会持续，操作上更需要耐心等待关键数据落地，别着急重仓押方向。Entry: Short positions opened in batches near 1920 - 1940 Stop: 1960 Target: First target 1875, Second target 1850 Core logic: On the macro level, the US July ISM manufacturing PMI hit a four-year high, significantly cooling rate cut expectations; Combined with joint intervention by the US and Japan in the yen disrupting arbitrage trading, risk assets are generally under pressure. On the capital side, although the Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $53.1 million on August 4, over 80% of it was contributed by BlackRock's single product. The previous trading day saw net outflows, with an extremely unstable inflow pace, far below the initial scale of the ETF's launch. Institutional funds lack consensus expectations for sustained inflows. The current rebound is mostly driven by passive buying driven by short positions, lacking incremental spot funds to support the market, resulting in a weak foundation for the rise. Once market sentiment turns and there is a lack of effective support below, the downside will open up more rapidly. #伊朗阿曼临时通航协议近落地 $ETH 昨晚本想像美光那样拼一把闪迪财报没想到反而挂树上了，尔后想了想总结了下面几点：
1、当期业绩很好，但下季度指引不及市场高预期。
2、利好出尽（买预期、卖事实），前期股价已经大幅提前上涨。
3、板块联动，存储板块集体杀估值。
目前市场对AI存储的期待拉得太高，虽当季成绩单满分，但叠加前期巨大涨幅，资金借利好兑现跑路。各位做多需慎重。ADP 就业降温，市场第一反应是开心：加息压力小了。
但这件事没那么舒服。
新增就业放缓，说明企业招人开始谨慎；可工资还没真正松下来，一些行业仍然缺人。联储最怕的就是这种半冷半热的劳动力市场：增长看起来降温，工资和通胀又不肯乖乖下去。
所以政策分歧会更大。
鸽派可以说，就业弱了，别再加；鹰派也可以说，工资粘性还在，通胀没死。两边都有数据，市场就只能在每一份报告后重新下注。
我觉得加密资产最怕的不是单次 ADP 差，而是联储失去清晰路线图。降息故事被反复推迟，加息恐惧又隔三差五冒头，仓位就会被情绪来回拧。
#ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 After Circle's earnings report, they bet on Arc, and I think this is their most crucial identity switch.
If you only make USDC, Circle essentially still relies on interest rates, circulation, and distribution channels. This model can make money, but the market keeps asking: if interest rates fall, if competitors subsidize, if banks and payment giants step in personally, how deep is your moat?
This is the meaning of Arc.
It wants to push Circle from a "stablecoin issuer" to a "financial underlying network." USDC will be the fuel, Arc will be the track, and payments will be connected to foreign exchange and capital market applications. It sounds grand but also risky.
Because chains don't just have people using them once they release them. What Circle needs to prove now is not whether the financial report can beat, but whether developers, institutions, and payment companies are willing to bring real business to Arc.
This is the real challenge of new growth.
#Circle财报后押注Arc, can USDC experience new growth? 闪迪这份财报最狠的地方，是它把“AI 存储短缺”从概念炒成了利润表。
营收、EPS 都超预期，数据中心需求继续顶着行业往前跑。可股价还是会犹豫，因为前面涨太多之后，市场已经不满足于“好”，它要的是“更夸张地好”。
回购授权看起来像管理层递给市场的一颗定心丸，但我觉得真正的问题不在回购，而在周期。存储行业最怕的就是大家一边喊短缺，一边悄悄扩产，最后价格拐头比情绪还快。
这类股票不能只看今天赚了多少钱，要看这轮 AI 需求到底能把供需拉紧多久。回购能托住信心，托不住周期翻脸。
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 闪迪这次财报很强，但股价还是跌了，这就是典型的“业绩赢了，预期没赢”。
最新季度营收 89.7 亿美元、调整后 EPS 39.25 美元，都明显超过市场预期；但下一季度指引虽然也不差，却没有再把市场想象力往上推一截。结果就是：业绩兑现了，资金开始先走一步。
我现在看闪迪，不再只问“好不好”，而是问两个问题：
下一季指引还能不能继续超预期
AI 数据中心存储需求是不是还在加速
高预期阶段，强财报不一定等于强股价。
你觉得这次是利好兑现，还是后面还有二次上冲？
#闪迪 $SNDK #财报分析 #AI存储Empty, empty
After SanDisk's financial report was released yesterday! Q4 revenue was $8.97 billion, a year-on-year surge of 372%, with EPS of $39.25, both exceeding expectations. Even more impressive, the board approved a new $14 billion buyback plan, bringing total authorizations to $15.5 billion!
However, the Q1 guidance median was 10.55 billion, slightly below the expected 10.8 billion, and fell as much as 8% in after-hours trading. Demand for AI storage surged, with data center business up 437% year-on-year, but consumer business weakened. Expectations are too high, guidance is insufficient: stock prices have risen nearly 490% this year, and the market has overhyped expectations. The median Q1 revenue guidance was 10.55 billion, below the expected 10.8 billion, which became the trigger for profit-taking.
· Consumer business underperformed: Consumer business revenue was only 556 million yuan, down 32% year-on-year, far below expectations.
· Gross margin peaks signal: Q4 gross margin reached a record 84.6%, but next quarter's guidance is 83%-85%, suggesting profit improvement is entering a phase of high level consolidation. Brothers, short him #SanDisk's earnings both beat expectations, adding $14 billion in buyback authorization 看懂财报背后的预期差，闪迪这波高空机会就抓得住
回看昨晚的财报分析，其实闪迪的做空机会早就摆在台面上。
前面几只财报股的走势已经给出示范，$SNDK 这波，可以说是机会送上门。
昨天我在 1420 美元附近布局空单，10 倍杠杆，今天于 1270 美元全部平仓，到手盈利 4450U，回报率 104%。
这笔交易，重点不在于收益多少，而是把盘前的判断实实在在落地到仓位上。闪迪真正的隐患，并不是财报本身拉胯，而是业绩必须强到远超所有人的期待，股价才能继续往上走。
这次财报账面数据其实相当亮眼。
季度营收 89.7 亿美元，高于预期 84.8 亿美元；调整后 EPS 39.25 美元，同样跑赢预期 34.96 美元，数据中心业务收入大涨 103%，毛利率高达 84.6%。
即便数据好看，盘后股价依旧一度大跌超 12%。
根源就在于下一季业绩指引。
公司给出预期营收 103‑108 亿美元，EPS 44‑46 美元。单看数值依旧很强，但已经很难再突破市场被拉高的心理期待。这只标的年内涨幅接近 470%，市场想要的已经不只是增长，而是不断超出想象的惊喜。
当指引仅仅符合预期，资金就会选择落袋为安，做空逻辑就此成立。再对照 SpaceX、AMD 的前车之鉴，其实方向已经很清晰。
我做的就是预期差交易：
财报出来之前股价已经提前冲高，市场乐观情绪被拉到高位，相比继续向上超预期，向下回调的风险要大得多。
不少散户看见财报好看，就理所当然觉得股价该涨。但股价炒的不只是已经公布的成绩，更要看实际结果和市场提前脑补的期待之间，存在多大差距。
AMD 是这样，SpaceX 是这样，闪迪同样也是。
选择在 1270 美元全部离场，是因为这一轮财报带来的预期差行情已经走完。再继续拿，逻辑就变成博弈存储周期反转，那就是另一笔完全不同的交易。
看对行情不难，把观点写出来也不难。难的是行情火热的时候敢于下手，利润到位之后愿意按计划收手。
这一次判断正确，不代表下一次也能如愿。单次盈利只说明这一轮逻辑成立，做好止损、恪守止盈纪律，才能够长久留在市场。
#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 #Circle财报后押注Arc，USDC能否迎来新增长？ #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future?
After watching this intensive earnings season, my biggest impression is: good performance doesn't mean the market is willing to buy in.
SpaceX delivered its first financial report since going public, with revenue surging year-on-year and losses narrowing. The operating figures have actually exceeded market expectations. But two hidden dangers are looming: capital expenditure in AI has surged, and with the August 6 restricted stock unlocking window approaching, stock prices are directly suppressed. The arrival of positive news has instead turned into a window for capital to flee.
It's not just SpaceX; this group of companies has experienced a completely differentiated market.
AMD and SanDisk's revenue and EPS both exceeded expectations, but the market did not celebrate blindly; everyone was watching the guidance and doubting whether the high valuations could hold up; Palantir, driven by high revenue growth + an upward revision of its full-year guidance, has been wildly pursued by capital; Circle is betting on new application scenarios for the Arc mainnet and USDC, betting on the growth story of stablecoin infrastructure going forward.
An interesting phenomenon: when you look at various financial reports, the fundamentals are generally not bad, but the market feedback varies greatly.
I keep asking myself: What exactly is the market buying at this stage?
Is it the high growth that has already been realized, or the willingness to continue offering premiums, and the ongoing upward expectations of the game that haven't materialized yet?
Now is not just about "how much money you made," but whether the market is willing to continue betting on your future story. Pressure to unlock the market, capital investment, and subsequent earnings guidance—each variable could reshape the market at any moment.
The divergence in the market is precisely hidden here.看来短期内 Pre-IPO Perpetual (IPOP) 是存在先发优势的。
tradexyz 作为 HIP-3 的绝对龙头，迟了 paragon 一天上 $UNITREE IPOP。虽然 xyz 增速很强，但成交量和 OI 都无法在接近一天内赶超 para。
我以为 xyz 会在几个小时内就实现反超，看来市场是非常看中“先机”的。如果故事的开端是 xyz 先于 para 上，结局可想而知。
HIP-3 立足于 Hyperliquid 之上，已经具备一定的品牌效应。从 para 最近的动作看，在 xyz 覆盖圈之外采取激进策略，是可以具备经济效益的。
$HYPE #财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future?
Several leading companies delivered their results this earnings season, with overall performance decent, but the market trend has become completely fragmented, and the logic of capital trade-offs is worth careful consideration.
Let's start with the focus of SpaceX. Its first financial report after going public actually had a solid foundation: revenue surged year-on-year, losses narrowed, and core operating data outperformed earlier market expectations. The two major hidden dangers dragging down the stock price are particularly striking: first, the expansion of the AI business brings massive capital expenditures, continuously eroding profits; Second, the August 6 unlocking window for restricted shares is about to arrive, putting pressure on expectations and dampening capital going long. After the earnings report was released, the market turned negative in after-hours trading, with the token XSPCX dropping nearly 4% intraday.
Companies that released financial reports during the same cycle showed a huge gap in their performance. AMD and SanDisk's revenue and earnings per share both exceeded expectations, but the market did not blindly chase the rally. Funds are concerned whether future guidance can support current high valuations, and the market is very cautious; Palantir has shown strong momentum, with high revenue growth combined with full-year performance guidance, directly attracting a large amount of capital to chase the market; Circle has opened a new track to bet on the Arc mainnet and USDC deployment scenarios, fully expanding the growth ceiling of stablecoin infrastructure.
Each company has its own strengths, but their stock prices have performed vastly differently. The current market divisions are already on the surface: will funds anchor on the high growth already realized, or will they be willing to pay for the continued upward expectations for the future?
In the short term, pressure from unlocking restrictions and capital expenditures will continue to limit SpaceX's rebound potential; Stocks that raise their full-year guidance and have maximized growth certainty are more likely to attract capital. In the upcoming market, the strength of expectations may become the core factor determining the divergence of the trend.