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The latest flow of institutional funds often reveals more than the price itself. In the most recent trading day, the Bitcoin ETF attracted about $101 million in net inflows, while the Ethereum ETF saw outflows of about $48 million, and the XRP ETF decreased by about $7.2 million, interrupting their long-standing inflow streaks. This data outlines a clear picture: capital is concentrating on Bitcoin rather than spreading across the entire crypto market. This divergence means the current market resembles more of a "group hug" than a broad rally. If Bitcoin's relative strength continues to lead while Ethereum remains suppressed by key resistance, Bitcoin's market share may stay elevated. The real signals to watch are whether SOL, XRP, and BNB can sustain independent rallies, which would indicate that funds are willing to take on more risk chasing secondary options. Looking further out, higher volatility assets like SUI, APT, AVAX, and the real on-chain activity of DeFi protocols such as AAVE, UNI, and CRV are important measures to test the breadth of the market. On the macro level, Federal Reserve Governor Waller's dovish remarks have created a mild environment for risk assets, but liquidity returning does not guarantee every sector will benefit equally. Bitcoin is absorbing the most concentrated institutional preference; whether this marks the first phase of a broader rotation depends on whether subsequent funds are willing to spread from the leaders to the periphery. Risk warning: market divergence is evident, please carefully assess your own risk tolerance. $BTC $ETHThis time it's not a "capital withdrawal," but rather capital beginning to reselect sectors. 📊 Latest data shows: 🟢 BTC ETF: +$167.1M 🔴 ETH ETF: -$51.3M 🔴 XRP ETF: -$18.1M 🔴 SOL ETF: -$2.5M 🟢 LINK ETF: +$2.0M The single-day total still recorded a net inflow of about +$97.2M. What's more noteworthy is that ETH previously attracted about $1.62 billion over 12 consecutive trading days, and XRP also received funds for 11 consecutive trading days, then both experienced outflows, indicating institutional funds are undergoing phased portfolio adjustments rather than simply exiting. 🔥 The hidden signal is clear: The current market is not "no one is buying," but capital is refocusing on high-liquidity assets like BTC. Meanwhile, on September 3rd, BTC reclaimed $80,000, once nearing $81,400; after Federal Reserve Governor Waller released a dovish signal, expectations for rate cuts/holding rates warmed up, further igniting risk asset sentiment. So what’s truly worth watching in this round is not just whether ETFs have inflows, but: Who is the money flowing to? Who is continuously attracting funds? Whose capital is cooling down? ETF capital rotation may be the key clue for the next phase of the crypto market.📈 The above is for market information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice. Thinking back to last year's market wave, I bottom-fished a domestic public chain, and when it dropped 40 points, I thought it was a golden opportunity.
But then it dropped another 40 points, and I realized there were eighteen more levels of hell beneath the basement.
At that time, I was hoping for a rebound every day so I could cut losses, but when the rebound came, I hesitated to sell; in the end, I only cut after becoming numb from losses.
Later, I learned a simple trick: divide my bullets into ten parts, and for every 10-point drop, use one part, never adding more.
This trick allowed me to accumulate quite a bit of cheap chips at the bottom, but I often ran out of ammo halfway up the mountain.
The most frustrating was missing the top; a coin quadrupled and I didn't sell, thinking it would at least go fivefold.
But the fourfold became the ceiling, sliding all the way back to the starting point, making the roller coaster ride pointless.
Now I set a conditional order to automatically sell one-third at the target price, no matter how high it flies afterward.
Although I often sell too early and watch others keep profiting, I at least secure some gains.
Once, I sold and the next day it plummeted; that feeling of luck was even better than making money.
In the end, small retail investors like us can't precisely predict tops and bottoms; catching the body of the fish is already good enough.
Those who claim to always sell at the highest point are either scammers or insanely lucky—don't believe them.
Now most of my positions are just in $BTC and $ETH, no fuss, and a small part in $LINK for short-term trading.
The short-term part, if lost, is tuition; if gained, it improves my meals, and I never get greedy to add positions.
The rest of the spare change is converted into stablecoins for yield farming; the daily interest is enough to buy a soda, which is satisfying.
Usually, I don't even look at the gain charts, just my own few K-lines, to avoid envy.
On weekends when the market fluctuates a lot, I just throw my phone in the drawer and take a walk in the park for the afternoon.
When I come back, if it went up, it's a pleasant surprise; if it dropped, I pretend it never happened since I didn't trade anyway.
After being in this industry for a long time, I found the worst thing is not losing money but losing your mindset and making reckless moves.
I used to want to catch every opportunity, but now I understand that's an impossible task.
Catching the small segment you understand already beats most people.
To be honest, don't treat the crypto world as an ATM; treat it as a somewhat exciting piggy bank.
Done writing this, I quietly checked my conditional orders again, then turned off the computer to eat. $H suddenly surged nearly 20%. Can it hold steady at $0.09 this time?
H's movement today is quite strong.
As of September 3rd, H's latest price is about $0.086, up approximately 18.9% in 24 hours, with a 24-hour trading volume of about 80.33 million tokens, equivalent to roughly $6.91 million. The lowest point today briefly hit $0.0774, then quickly rebounded, currently approaching the short-term resistance level near $0.0895.
This position is very critical.
If H can hold above $0.0895 with volume, the next target could be around $0.12; if it rallies but then falls back below $0.08, this rise would look more like a short-term recovery after overselling.
H previously experienced a serious security incident, causing its price to plunge sharply and significantly impacting market confidence. Although the price has recovered from the lows, there is still a long way to go before regaining market recognition.
In the short term, focus on two key levels:
$0.0895 — a breakout here points to $0.12;
$0.077 — a break below this warns of renewed weakness.
For coins rebounding from deep drops, the biggest risk isn’t slow gains but reigniting sentiment only to be crushed again by selling pressure.
Whether H can turn $0.09 into a new starting point this time depends on whether the trading volume can keep up.The sudden rally in $BTC and $ETH isn’t coming out of nowhere. There are three key factors behind the move: 1️⃣ Markets are front-running a dovish Fed Fed officials sounded relatively dovish tonight, pushing traders to price in a higher probability of future rate cuts. Treasury yields moved lower, giving risk assets room to rally. With Nonfarm Payrolls just around the corner, the market appears to be front-running a potential dovish outcome instead of waiting for the actual data. 2️⃣ BTC leads, $BTC September 4 Trend Analysis:
I. Basic Market Information
• Latest Price: 80,903.8 USDT, down 0.55% from the previous day.
• 24-Hour Range: Highest price 82,285.0 USDT, lowest price 77,110.0 USDT.
• Trading Volume: 24-hour trading volume is 8,360.67 BTC, with a turnover of 669 million USD.
II. Technical Indicator Analysis
1. Moving Averages (MA)
◦ MA5: 79,211.1
◦ MA10: 78,938.2
◦ MA20: 75,629.2
◦ MA30: 71,775.9
◦ Interpretation: Short-term moving averages (MA5, MA10) are above long-term moving averages (MA20, MA30), indicating an upward short-term trend, but recent price pullback pressure should be noted.
2. MACD Indicator
◦ DIF: 1,727.6
◦ DEA: 1,855.6
◦ MACD: -256.1
◦ Interpretation: DIF is below DEA and MACD is negative, indicating the market is in a bearish state and may continue to decline in the short term.
3. KDJ Indicator
◦ K: 65.2
◦ D: 60.3
◦ J: 75.1
◦ Interpretation: J value is higher than K and D, showing an overbought signal, but confirmation with other indicators is needed to determine if a reversal is forming.
III. Comprehensive Analysis and Suggestions
• Market Sentiment: Although short-term moving averages provide strong support, both MACD and KDJ indicate bearish dominance, and market sentiment is cautious.
• Operation Suggestions:
◦ Short-term Investors: Consider looking for short opportunities near 80,000 USDT, with stop-loss set above 82,000 USDT.
◦ Long-term Holders: If optimistic about the long-term trend, consider building positions gradually below 77,000 USDT, with target prices set above 85,000 USDT.
IV. Risk Warning
• Market volatility is high; strictly control position sizes and avoid excessive leverage.
• Pay attention to macroeconomic policies and industry developments, and adjust investments timely.
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#比特币再破80000美元 Federal Reserve Governor Waller made dovish remarks pointing out that inflation is showing a slowing trend and suggested keeping interest rates in the 3.50% to 3.75% range, directly causing market expectations for a September rate hike to drop sharply. Stimulated by this positive news, multiple global assets rose in response, with U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, gold, and Bitcoin all rising comprehensively. Major Market Overview • Stock Market Rebound: The S&P 500 index rose 1.07% (its largest single-day gain in a month), the Nasdaq index increased 1.40%, and the Dow Jones index rose 1.18%. All three major stock indices achieved two consecutive gains. • Technology and AI Divergence: Tesla surged 5.42% leading the tech giants; Snowflake soared 16.55% due to strong earnings and guidance; Broadcom fell 2.74% against the trend due to slightly lower revenue guidance for the next quarter; OpenAI released the GPT-6 Astra model, further boosting market confidence in AI infrastructure and downstream applications. • Exchange Rate Changes: Influenced by expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike and market caution about intervention, the Japanese yen surged 1.83% against the U.S. dollar to around 155.76, marking the largest two-day gain recently; the U.S. dollar index fell below the 99 mark. • Commodities and Cryptocurrency: Spot gold surged 2.37%, breaking through the $4500/ounce level intraday; Bitcoin skyrocketed 5.33% to above $81,400; crude oil was relatively stable, Brent crude fell slightly by 0.12%, but refined oil supply remains tight, with U.S. diesel retail prices hitting a four-year high. Bond Market Concerns and Follow-up Focus Despite politicalMy judgment:
If tonight's non-farm payrolls are below expectations → BTC/ETH benefit the most, and rate cut trades heat up again.
If non-farm payrolls are strong → US Treasury yields and the dollar may rise, increasing short-term pressure on BTC.
If non-farm payrolls show “weak employment + high wages” → gold benefits the most, while BTC experiences high volatility.
Market importance: ★★★★☆
This ISM report itself is not a recession signal; rather, it indicates that the US economy remains resilient; the real market contradiction has shifted from "whether the US economy will enter a recession" to **"whether employment will deteriorate enough to force the Federal Reserve to cut rates"**. $BTC $ETH #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 BTC risk level: Medium-high — ETF funds significantly improved, but leverage remains high before the non-farm payroll.
* On September 3, the US spot BTC ETF recorded a final net inflow of about $276.8 million, significantly higher than previous incomplete data, confirming a new positive signal for funds. Farside
* BTC around $80,900, still holding above $80,000; but contract open interest is about $26.8 billion, up 5.87% in 24 hours, funding rates are moderate, leverage has not been fully digested. Open interest, funding rates
* September rate hike probability about 50%, US 2-year yield about 4.35%, US dollar index about 99.01, macro pressure has not re-intensified for now. Reuters
Next key event: US non-farm payroll at 20:30 today. ETF inflows do not necessarily mean a rise after data release; avoid chasing gains at high open interest, focus on $80,000 — if broken, beware of long liquidations; holding above $82,000 is needed to further confirm strength. #比特币再破80000美元 #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 The US ISM Services Index for August rose to 55.4, significantly stronger than expected, compared to 54.1 in July and a market expectation of about 54.3, marking a near six-month high and the 26th consecutive month in expansion territory.
Core Insights
Strong economic demand: The new orders index rose to 60.9, reaching about a 3.5-year high, indicating that US service consumption and business demand remain robust. Reduced recession risk: 55.4 is well above 50, meaning the service sector is still expanding rapidly, supporting US economic growth in Q3. The biggest issue is inflation: The prices paid index rose to 72.6, the highest level in nearly four years, indicating a clear resurgence of cost pressures in the service sector. Employment remains weak: The employment sub-index is about 47.8, contracting for the second consecutive month, creating a "strong demand, weak hiring" combination.
For the Federal Reserve: Hawkish bias, but not purely negative
This data itself represents a **"strong growth + high inflation + weak employment"** scenario. $BTC #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 ETH bounced back to 2510, don't get too excited before the non-farm payrolls
ETH stood above 2510 today, up 5% in 24 hours, BTC returned to 81000 and lifted the entire market, with Ethereum following along.
But there are a few things to keep in mind.
On-chain, an institutional wallet transferred nearly 110,000 ETH to exchanges in the past three days at an average price of 2430, planning to transfer a total of 167,800 ETH, worth over $400 million. This volume is much larger than the 8.6 million inflow from the ETF.
From a technical perspective, the Fibonacci support at 2438 has not been lost, and the short-term structure is bullish. However, the 50-week moving average at 2542 is pressing down from above, and the previous two attempts to reach this level were pushed back.
Tonight at 20:30 is the non-farm payroll data release. The market pricing for a September rate hike is still above 60%. If the data is strong and rate hike expectations increase, this rebound could be crushed. Weak data would be the real breathing room.
Chasing longs around 2520-2540 is not cost-effective; wait for the data to come out.
For reference only, not investment advice.
$ETH #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Five months ago, X Money launched its public beta, and the market took "DOGE payment" as the most certain narrative; five months later, the midterm report is somewhat sober: X Money is up and running, but DOGE hasn't boarded yet.
This product has indeed established a foothold—transfer licenses in 41 states, Visa real-time deposits, FDIC insurance, 6% deposit yield, buying coffee, transfers, and cashback are all happening in reality. But from day one, it has been a pure fiat system; DOGE only exists in the externally circulated roadmap, and the official side has never given a date.
On-chain data is even more straightforward. DOGE averages about 20,000 transactions daily, with a median transfer amount of about $57, and a median fee of only one cent—this is a typical small retail chain, but structurally there is no "payment-grade" growth: active addresses climbed from 30,000 to around 50,000 and then fell back, new addresses continue to decline, and the total on-chain transfer volume is basically flat. Real large-scale flows still come from transfers between exchanges and whale wallets.
So this report card needs to be analyzed separately. The first half of the narrative—the financial framework growing on Musk's platform—has been fulfilled; the latter half, $DOGE integration, is stuck on custody licenses and regulatory timing, which cannot be solved by a software update. The track is laid, but the train has not yet been scheduled. The narrative has not collapsed; it has just been downgraded from "about to happen" to "waiting for scheduling"—and the only standard to test it remains the string of numbers on-chain that have yet to move.**Elon Musk says AI will take jobs in 12 months, but don’t panic yet**
At the G20, Musk declared: AI will replace all purely computer-based jobs in 12-18 months, and in 10 years there will be 1 billion humanoid robots producing more than all humans combined. There might also be a historic power shortage next year. It sounds scary, but consider the second layer: AI will create massive wealth but also burn through massive amounts of money—chips, electricity, data centers—all paid for by the money printer. The more fiat currency is printed, the more valuable hard assets become; this is BTC’s strongest logic. Thinking deeper: 1 billion robots settling accounts with each other can’t just use Alipay; the machine economy needs machine-native money—BTC for store of value, ETH and SOL as settlement layers. So don’t worry about being replaced by AI; what you hold in your portfolio is the toll for the AI era. $BTC short-term is once again approaching a critical juncture.
The latest trend shows BTC has returned above the 50-week moving average, a long-term technical indicator that has once again become the focus of market bulls and bears. The market is currently testing the resistance zone around $82,000 to $83,000. Whether it can break through effectively will directly impact the subsequent market rhythm.
From a technical perspective, the 50-week moving average is currently around $81,000. Previously, Bitcoin encountered resistance multiple times at this level, and this time the price has climbed back above the moving average, with the daily chart showing relative strength. What truly deserves attention next is not just whether it can break through intraday, but more importantly, whether the weekly chart can confirm a stable hold above.
Meanwhile, activity in the derivatives market has clearly increased. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin futures trading volume was about $84.7 billion, with open interest close to $57.9 billion. The concentration of high-leverage funds also means market volatility may further amplify.
It is worth noting that in the past 24 hours, BTC liquidation volume was about $230 million, with short liquidations around $215 million, significantly higher than longs. Short-term bullish sentiment is heating up, but before a true breakthrough is completed in the $82,000 to $83,000 resistance zone, caution is still needed against a rapid pullback after a surge. $ETH #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 #比特币再破80000美元 Tonight's non-farm payrolls might actually be more impactful than any positive news from the crypto world itself.
On September 4th, the US August non-farm employment data will be released.
Right now, the market is basically waiting for one answer:
Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates on September 16th or not?
Yesterday, Waller's comment already dropped the rate hike expectation from over 60% to nearly 50%. So if today's non-farm payrolls continue to be weak, the market will likely further bet on "no rate hike," giving BTC room to retest $80,000.
But don't rush to be bullish just yet.
I see three scenarios:
Weaker than expected: rate hike probability continues to fall, BTC surges to 80k.
Meets expectations: market directionless, waiting for the CPI on September 11th to provide further answers.
Stronger than expected: rate hike expectations return, BTC might get pushed down again.
Actually, the options market is already buying insurance.
Between $68,000 and $75,000, there are already downside protection positions.
That's quite interesting.
Everyone talks about 80k, but money is already being set aside to insure at 68k.
So don't guess the numbers today.
After the data comes out, let's see who panics first.
$BTC #30-year US Treasury yield stays above 5% for 41 consecutive days
The 30-year US Treasury yield has not dropped below 5% for 41 consecutive days
This chart itself is news
The market used to think 4% was the ceiling
Now 5% is the floor
This means no one is buying long-term bonds
Institutions are selling, central banks are shrinking their balance sheets, foreign capital is fleeing
The US Treasury still plans to keep issuing bonds
If tonight's nonfarm payrolls aren't weak
A 30-year yield breaking 5.2% is not a dream
After breaking 5.2%
Risk premiums will be repriced
High beta assets like BTC will face short-term pressure
But on the flip side
5% is a risk-free return
The logic for funds moving into BTC still holds
Short-term pressure, no change in the medium term
So my judgment is: tonight BTC's drop will depend on the 30-year yield; buying on sharp dips is the opportunity
$BTC #USDebt📊 The real test has yet to come. Tonight's volatility in the crypto market is not rooted in on-chain data but in the dovish signals released by Federal Reserve officials. Market funds are rushing ahead, pricing in rate cut expectations. U.S. Treasury yields have fallen, risk appetite has warmed, and mainstream assets have gained support.
Structurally, $BTC remains the flagbearer of this rally, with $ETH closely following due to its higher resilience. Notably, $ZEC has seen a concentrated influx of short-term leveraged funds, amplifying its volatility and outperforming mainstream coins, becoming the most sentiment-sensitive barometer in the short term. Technically, the 15-minute candlestick shows consecutive volume increases with bullish closes, MACD is rising rapidly, and the short term has entered an overbought zone, accumulating risks for chasing the rally.
⚠️ The core contradiction lies in this being an expectation trade rather than fact confirmation. Tomorrow's nonfarm payroll report is the true watershed. If the data falls short of expectations, the current rally may continue; if the data is unexpectedly strong, the funds that positioned early tonight may collectively take profits, triggering a rapid pullback. At that time, the high-volatility $ZEC may experience even more severe adjustments. Before the shoe drops, maintaining clarity might be more important than chasing gains.
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile; please control your positions rationally and manage risks properly. Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher and continued to rise, all gaining more than 1%. The seven tech giants collectively surged, with $TSLA soaring over 6%, $META rising more than 3%, $AAPL closing up 1.6%, and Nvidia up 1.2%. The AI application software sector also saw a collective rally, becoming a major driving force in the market.
Influenced by dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, market expectations for a September rate hike quickly cooled. The market joked that data like nonfarm payrolls and CPI seem to have become tools for embellishment. Based on expectations of a policy pause, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar both plunged. Gold, silver, and Bitcoin strengthened accordingly, and crypto-related stocks showed strong resilience. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
For a moment, risk appetite in external markets fully recovered, and global stock markets seemed to have shaken off the crisis. But the lively external scene is just an emotional catalyst and cannot be simply extrapolated linearly. Behind the celebration, uncertainties remain. The nonfarm payroll data will be released soon and could reverse the current optimistic expectations at any time. #比特币再破80000美元 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 $ZEC surged with a big bullish candle last night, hitting 900 and peaking at 978, up 18% in 24 hours, pushing its market cap into the global top ten. Many are shouting "Privacy coin is here," but honestly, the real ignition yesterday was the ADP report.
The US August ADP added only 37,000 jobs, below the expected 48,000, a surprising low for the year. Once the data came out, the probability of a September rate hike dropped from 68% to 62%, US Treasury yields fell, the dollar weakened, and risk assets loosened up. The crypto market cap hit $2.7 trillion overnight, with ZEC being the strongest gainer among them.
Additionally, the launch of Grayscale's Zcash ETF, shorts being repeatedly squeezed, and the privacy narrative reignited by AI surveillance anxieties—all these factors combined to create this big bullish candle.
In short, this rally for ZEC is a "macro breather + its own story" double boost. But tonight's nonfarm payrolls are the real test; if the data disappoints again, there's hope to break above 1000; if it reverses and exceeds expectations, any gains will likely be retraced first.
Don't just watch it fly—keep an eye on tonight's data first. From the market data, Bitcoin completed a key breakout from the night of September 3 to the early morning of September 4, with the price rapidly rising from the $76,900 range to above $81,000, a 24-hour increase of over 5%, and trading volume surged by 45% compared to the previous period, representing a typical "macro catalyst + short squeeze" driven market. Ethereum simultaneously broke through the $2,500 mark, rising about 4.7%; Solana performed even stronger, with gains close to 6%, indicating that funds are flowing from BTC to higher volatility coins. The core driving force behind this round of gains comes from the shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations. Fed Governor Waller released a dovish signal that if inflation cools, rate hikes would pause in September, combined with US initial jobless claims exceeding expectations and a cooling labor market, the market's bet on a September rate hike probability dropped sharply from 63% to below 50%. This macro positive directly boosted global risk assets including cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, the US dollar index weakened briefly and gold surged simultaneously, confirming that funds are rotating from safe-haven assets to risk assets. Technically, Bitcoin's daily chart has broken above the previous consolidation range, with MACD showing a golden cross with volume expansion, RSI in a healthy 60 range, not yet in the overbought zone, indicating that upward momentum remains sustainable. However, caution is advised as the rapid short-term rise may trigger profit-taking, especially with resistance from a previous dense trading area near $82,000. Operational suggestions: Holders can continue to hold but are advised to take partial profits in batches within the $82,000–$83,000 range; those without positions# Latest Updates
- Federal Reserve Governor Waller takes a dovish stance; if August CPI is as expected, the tendency is to maintain rates unchanged in September, with rate hike expectations dropping to about 50%. U.S. Treasury yields fall, and U.S. stocks and crypto markets rebound.
- OpenAI releases GPT-6 Astra, reducing single-task costs by 57%, with positive performance feedback, driving Oracle up 5.7%.
- Coinbase applies to the SEC to launch stock Perps in the U.S., allowing American investors to trade stocks with leverage around the clock.
- After Waller's dovish stance, the crypto market quickly rebounds: Circle and Hood rise 16%, Coinbase up 10%, BTC climbs to $81,300.
- U.S.-Iran outlook remains unclear; Vance downplays conflict scale, but Trump considers formally declaring war on Iran. Brent crude holds at $95.
# Trading Analysis
- Maintain previous conclusion: tactical rebound driven by repricing of rate hike expectations and AI sentiment recovery.
- Waller sets the stage for no rate hike in September; if August CPI is stable, no hike in November election month, with the next window delayed to December. ISM services prices rose 2.3 percentage points month-over-month, with oil price inflation transmitting to the service sector. Brent crude holds at $95, U.S. Treasury yields are easier to rise than fall.
- GPT-6 Astra reduces single-task costs by 57%, temporarily easing ROI validation concerns. The core conflict shifts from hardware shortages to ROI validation, with a divergence period expected to be volatile.From the daily level, BTC took out the 82000 liquidity and continued downward, realizing a false breakout of the previous high at 81500 and then falling back. On the hourly level, if it subsequently reaches 79500 and provides support, it can continue to go long; if not, BTC will still come down to 75000 to take out the long liquidity.✅ Midnight positioning secured profits, range forecast perfectly fulfilled 📈
All support points given at midnight were reached
Long position layout near BTC 79672, smoothly took profit and exited at 80760
Entered near ETH 2457, fully closed positions above 2500
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#比特币再破80000美元 Scumbag Observation Episode 1 Update, 26.9.04 (UTC+8) 11:30
Chart 1 SNDK Daily K-Line
SanDisk closing price 1554.99, intraday high 1576.80, low 1511, up 0.10%
SanDisk is currently fluctuating in the 1450~1580 range, so our strategy is to wait for a breakout direction.
Chart 2 ETH Daily K-Line
Ethereum has once again risen above the upper boundary of the box with a big bullish candle, so our next target is around the annual line at 2600.When I first entered the market, I thought there was gold everywhere, just bending down to pick it up, but I ended up with a handful of dirt.
Later I understood, this industry isn’t about who makes the most money, but who survives the longest and stays steady.
My first investment was in $BTC; after buying, it dropped, and I cursed every day. Then I just stopped looking. A couple of years later, it had actually doubled.
Since then, I changed my approach, putting a little spare money in every month, just as a surprise gift for my future self.
In between, I got itchy and switched to $ETH, but after a few tries, I found the fees were more than the profits, so I honestly switched back.
Now I only hold onto this one $SOL, avoiding all other hot spots because I can’t hold onto them anyway.
The deepest lesson is not to borrow money to play, and don’t listen to others bragging; the numbers in your account only fool yourself.
If you make money, take it out and treat yourself to something nice; if you lose, just close the app and play games—the sun still rises the next day.
Over time, you’ll notice those who watch the market every day have less hair and no fatter wallets.
I now check prices once a week, don’t smile when it rises, don’t jump when it falls, my mindset is as steady as a rock.
Anyway, this thing is a marathon; running slow doesn’t matter, just don’t collapse halfway.
Life goes on, the coins stay put, people stay busy, just let it be.
#比特币再破80000美元
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引
#原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动 $SOL family, I really give up 🙄, SOL's trend is like squeezing toothpaste—neither the rise nor the fall is satisfying.
This morning it jumped from 99.72 to 105.93, I thought it was going to take off today, but after hitting 105.93 it immediately reversed, slowly dropping back to 103.82, down 1.28% in 24 hours 😅. I’m familiar with this move—classic pump and dump with sideways grinding, giving no room for bulls or bears.
Now it’s stuck in this lousy 103-105 range, with resistance at 104.62 above and support at 103.02 below, like a sandwich cookie 🍪. The MACD has turned green, the bulls’ strength is almost gone, but it’s not dropping deeply because there are buyers below, so it’s just dragging on.
Honestly, this kind of market is the worst 😮💨:
- For those holding long positions, watching profits shrink bit by bit, reluctant to sell but anxious to hold;
- For those holding shorts, frustrated that it won’t drop, afraid to close and see a drop, afraid to hold and see a pump;
- For those with no position, even more conflicted—enter and risk a fakeout, don’t enter and risk missing a breakout.
I think I get it now, SOL is holding back a big move—either it will burst out with a big bullish candle and fly up, or it can’t hold and will crash down. Until the direction is clear, I choose to lie low and watch 🛋️, no more messing around, the fees from all the trading are already a big loss.
To all the comrades still fighting inside, remember to set your stop losses, don’t fight the market, staying alive is the most important 💪.$RE The real value to watch is not the short-term price fluctuations, but that it brings traditional financial assets like reinsurance onto the blockchain! Its returns come from real insurance business, not entirely dependent on token subsidies, which gives RE RWA attributes. However, the expansion speed of reinsurance won't be as fast as DeFi, and it will face unlocking pressure later, so the core depends on whether the underwriting scale and asset management growth can outpace token release.
$BTC The biggest variable for Bitcoin now has become macro liquidity. In August, spot ETF net inflows were about $3.5 billion; after outflows at the beginning of September, it quickly turned positive again, indicating institutional allocation demand hasn't disappeared. Waller's dovish stance has cooled rate hike expectations, and the decline in the dollar and yields has directly given risk assets some breathing room. As long as employment and inflation continue to cool down, ETF funds and liquidity improvements have a chance to resonate.
$ETH Ethereum's logic has an additional layer of supply changes compared to BTC. Previously, ETFs had inflows for 12 consecutive trading days, while staking, ETFs, and corporate treasuries are all locking up ETH, continuously squeezing tradable market supply. But ETH can't rely on institutional buying forever; what truly determines mid-term strength is on-chain activity, stablecoins, RWA, and whether L2 can continuously create demand. If capital inflows recover and the on-chain economy grows synchronously, it will have the foundation to independently outperform BTC.
#比特币再破80000美元
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Tonight we open the box on non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate, explaining why inflation is currently more important than interest rates.
The core focus of the Federal Reserve, represented by Waller, is to control inflation around 2%, and the current CPI is 3.7%. This gap may not seem large, but due to the power of compounding, a 2% CPI leads to a 21.9% price increase over 10 years, while a 3.7% baseline results in a 43.9% price increase over 10 years. The difference is nearly double.
Therefore, interest rates are the tool, inflation is the target, and employment is the constraint.
The Fed does not care about the absolute number of the interest rate itself. What it cares about is whether inflation can return to 2% and whether employment can remain stable. Interest rates are just the lever it uses to influence these two goals.
To put it simply: you take fever medicine not because the medicine itself is good or bad, but because you want to bring your body temperature down to 37 degrees Celsius. Interest rates are that fever medicine—the 3.63% federal funds rate is not the goal; the goal is to reduce 3.7% inflation down to 2%.
So when you see the market discussing "Will the Fed raise rates in September?", essentially it is discussing whether the "body temperature" of 3.7% inflation is high enough to require another "dose" of medicine. Employment data tells the doctor whether the patient's body can tolerate another dose.
Simply put: inflation is the illness, interest rates are the medicine, and employment is the patient's physical condition. If 3.7% inflation persists too long, it becomes a chronic illness—medicine efficacy diminishes, side effects accumulate. This is why the Fed is determined to push it back to 2%#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 **The secret behind Buffett's 26% annual return lies in his top three holdings**
The Oracle of Omaha's latest holdings: Apple 22%, American Express 17%, Coca-Cola 11%, with the top three accounting for half of the portfolio. 29 stocks earned 26% in one year, totaling $299.2 billion. Many people try to learn from Buffett every day but get it wrong—he doesn't rely on picking many stocks or frequent trading; he puts money into the best few assets and holds on. Retail investors switch 50 coins a year, chase 80 hot trends, pay a lot in fees, and end up with a scattered portfolio. Buffett says Bitcoin is rat poison, which is his circle of competence, no blame on him; but his method works the same in crypto: BTC, ETH, SOL are your Apple, Coca-Cola, American Express—heavy core positions, hold tight, and mess around with the small positions. A Ferrari is still a Ferrari when it ages, a core asset remains a core asset when it dips, and junk coins remain junk even if they rise. @辰宿列张001 BTC was around $80,977 this morning, up about 5.2% in the past day, with an intraday high close to $81,993.
This time is different from the previous hard cap at 80K.
Previously:
Yield↑ + USD↑ + BTC barely holding
Last night it changed to:
Fed rate hike expectations↓ + 10Y↓ + DXY↓ + BTC↑
This indicates that at least in the short term, BTC has regained macro tailwinds.
But I still wouldn’t directly define 80K as confirmed support.
What really needs to be watched is:
Whether BTC can stay continuously above 80K, rather than relying on a one-night rebound.
Reuters’ technical analysis also points out that the real strong resistance BTC needs to break recently is still around $82,793; if this area is effectively broken, it will be easier to open up space extending toward 90K.Panface verification morning idea, 4480-4500 rebound short, encountered resistance at 4487 and declined, landed at 4466, took down twenty typical break force leap.
Geopolitical rebound has limited momentum, no hammering, pressure level shorting is the main line. #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 $BTC USDC net decrease of 44.21 million in three hours, at least 20 million clearly cross-chain burn
08:00—11:00, Ethereum USDC contract minted 79.1838 million tokens, burned 123.395 million tokens, net supply decreased by 44.2115 million tokens on-chain, total 710 transactions. Blocks 25900227—25901119.
The largest single burn was 50 million tokens at 08:09; minting of 34.399 million tokens at 09:23. Two burn transactions of about 10 million tokens each used the depositForBurn method, confirmed as cross-chain burns, and cannot be directly described as redemptions or fund withdrawals.
To determine fund outflows, verification of minting on the target chain, receiving addresses, and Circle's explanations is required. The zero address event only proves changes in Ethereum contract supply.
What additional on-chain evidence do you think is needed to define this 44.21 million as fund withdrawal?
Source: Circle official contract directory, Ethereum Blockscout; as of 11:00 (UTC+8). This does not constitute investment advice.
#USDC #OnChainDataIf BTC returning above eighty thousand dollars is just a feint, then what exactly is this round of rebound trading? 🫧 Seeing BTC retake 80K and ETH slowly approaching 2.5K, my first reaction is not excitement but a bit of caution. The sentiment is indeed warming up, but what really catches my attention is not the price itself, but the subtle changes in the derivatives structure. First, the signal I observed: the funding rate for perpetual contracts on the order book has not shown extreme frenzy for leverage; instead, it remains in a mild positive state. What does this mean? It indicates that this rally is not fueled by leveraged speculative heat but more like spot buying gradually supporting the bottom. In the options market, the implied volatility of put options is starting to decline, but the tail demand for call options is not particularly exaggerated. The market is repairing but not overly confident. Actually, the most worth pondering at this point is whether risk appetite has truly broadened. BTC and ETH, as core assets, have relatively solid trends, which is fine. But a genuine recovery in risk appetite should be seen in sustained profitability in mid-cap coins and altcoin sectors, not just pulse-driven rallies in individual tokens. Currently, growth assets like ZEC, SOL, XRP are showing some movement, but it looks more like beta recovery following the broader market rather than an independent alpha trend. High-risk targets like KAITO and BEAT are very volatile but have not formed sector resonance. From the perspective of derivatives structure, this rebound currently looks more like a short squeeze combined with mild spot absorption #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
CIPS surprisingly lifted the Big Four banks, which is somewhat unexpected in this trend.
The activity of the RMB Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) has increased. The Big Four banks, as core direct participants, directly undertake cross-border clearing business and gain incremental fees. This thematic sentiment has driven the banking sector to strengthen. However, this is more driven by thematic sentiment rather than a fundamental change, so its sustainability remains questionable.
#比特币再破80000美元
On the other hand, the overseas crypto market is booming, with $BTC retaking the $80,000 level. US crypto-related stocks show strong resilience. $xSTRC surged over 17%, Circle rose more than 16%, and Coinbase increased by over 10%. Overseas risk appetite is broadly recovering, but the internal and external logics cannot be simply equated.
It is important to distinguish that CIPS is a compliant cross-border RMB infrastructure, fundamentally different from crypto assets like Bitcoin, even though both are strengthening at the same time. #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 $ZEC family🤣 Who would have thought that the first half of the night was a wild celebration, and the second half suddenly turned into a tormenting grind!
ZEC violently surged from 813 straight up to 979.76 in a flash, the big bullish candle got everyone pumped, the whole screen felt like wealth was waving at me🚀!
We thought it would break through 1000 and keep soaring, but at the high point it was doused with a cold splash💦, bulls instantly lost steam, no longer pushing upward, just bouncing back and forth between 940‑970.
24-hour slight drop of -0.83%, current price 947.79, after the big rise it entered a high-level digestion phase, bulls and bears locked in a tough battle.
Right now, there are three types of people in the community, and their states are just too real👇
✅ Those holding long positions from low levels: sitting on big floating profits, agonizing daily over whether to sell or not, afraid of missing out but also afraid of giving back all profits, can’t even sleep well;
😵 Those chasing at high levels: can’t push higher, can’t fall deeply, stuck in a limbo with their positions, mentally tortured repeatedly;
👀 The sidelines watchers: watching the surge but afraid to act, scared of becoming the bag holder if they jump in, so they just sit back and watch the show.
The post-surge high-level consolidation hides many traps❗
Selling pressure could erupt anytime after the spike, don’t get overheated chasing highs, floating profits are not realized gains.
📌 One-hour chart entertainment reference points (for review only, not trading advice)
🔝 Upper resistance: 969.74
Only if volume supports a stable break here is there a chance to retest the 979.76 high and sprint toward the 1000 mark; repeated failure to break will keep the market grinding.
🛡️ Key support below: 918.44
This is the lifeline of this rally; holding here keeps the bullish structure intact; if broken decisively, profit-taking will trigger a significant pullback.
Technically📈, MACD has slightly turned green, short-term bullish momentum is weakening, price still holds in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands, overall trend is bullish, but the hourly chart is at a crossroads, it depends on whether support can withstand selling pressure.
💡 Honest reminder:
Volatility after a surge can be extremely wild, make sure to set take-profit and stop-loss properly, don’t hold heavy positions stubbornly, the crypto roller coaster can crash if you don’t ride it well!$CORE's repeated delays indicate poor technology; otherwise, after all the bragging, why hasn't a single promise been fulfilled? The ecosystem is running away, the technology is nonexistent, and after all these years of empty talk about technology, which one has actually been realized? It looks technologically strong on the surface, but in reality, it's worse than a local dog.BTC returns to $80,000, new variables emerge in September market
BTC today retook $80,000, once approaching $81,400, with market sentiment clearly warming.
The core variable of this rebound is the Federal Reserve expectations. Waller's latest speech leaned dovish, and the market's expectation for a September rate hike dropped from about 63% to 50%, easing pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, thus supporting risk assets.
But it is still too early to judge a new bull market.
Short-term key points:
$82,800: breaking through may open up greater space
$80,000: current key level between bulls and bears
$75,700: important pullback support
If BTC breaks through $82.8K with volume, market sentiment may strengthen further; conversely, if it falls back below $80K, beware of a pullback after a rally.
Next, focus on U.S. employment data and September Federal Reserve policy expectations.
$BTC $ETH $BNB
#BTC #ETH #Crypto #OKXFirst layer: This is not really about the crypto space. The trigger was Federal Reserve Governor Waller's statement that he might support keeping interest rates unchanged. Before this statement, the market priced in a 50-70% chance of a rate hike in September. Note, it was a hike, not a cut. Everyone was already prepared to take a hit, but suddenly it was said that the hike might not happen. This is the expectation gap—not how good the news is, but how big the gap is compared to the original expectation. Second layer: This reduces negative factors, not increases positive ones. Real positive news would be new money coming in, ETF inflows, institutional accumulation, or legislation passing. Reducing negative factors means those who were ready to exit no longer do, forcing short positions to close. This money was already in the market, just changing direction. A move from 77,100 to 82,100, a 5,000-point rise, largely pushed up by short covering. The problem with short-covering rallies is that once they're done, they're over. Shorts are limited; once covered, there’s no next batch. Third layer: The foundation of this positive news is fragile. Waller is one governor, not the entire committee. His stance doesn’t mean the meeting is decided. The fundamentals remain unchanged: oil is still $98, the 10-year Treasury yield is still 4.75%, inflation pressure persists. Waller’s statement didn’t change any fundamentals. Fourth layer: I have become more bullish on the direction. The market has indeed moved up, but this is an event-driven rally, not a trend. Event-driven moves come fast and go fast. The real payoff day is the September FOMC meeting. Until then, longs can be held, but don’t use leverage or treat it as a long-term position. Exit before the meeting day; don’t hold positions to gamble on the meeting outcome $BTC Japanese treasury company Remixpoint holds 1,506 BTC with unrealized gains of about $18.6 million, has liquidated ETH, SOL, and others, retaining only Bitcoin. Japanese Bitcoin treasury company Remixpoint announced that as of September 4, it held approximately 1,506.23 BTC, with an average cost price of about $68,000, a book cost of about 16.105 billion yen (approximately $103 million), a market value of about 19.006 billion yen (approximately $122 million), and an estimated profit of about 2.901 billion yen (approximately $18.6 million). The company had previously sold ETH, SOL, XRP, and DOGE, currently retaining only Bitcoin in its treasury. Remixpoint is a Japanese publicly listed company that includes Bitcoin as a corporate reserve asset. This announcement is a routine disclosure of its treasury holdings. According to the data, its average holding cost is about $68,000, with current unrealized gains of about $18.6 million, a return rate of about 18%, indicating a relatively reasonable entry position and considerable book profits from the recent BTC price rise. More notably, its asset allocation moves: the company has successively sold ETH, SOL, XRP, and DOGE, concentrating its treasury entirely on Bitcoin as a single asset. This single-asset allocation reflects a clear preference among some Japanese listed companies in reserve asset selection—abandoning diversified altcoin portfolios and retaining only Bitcoin, which has the deepest liquidity and strongest consensus. In recent years, several Japanese listed companies have adopted Bitcoin treasury strategies, Remixpoin$BTC $ETH $SOL
Jiang Zhuoer: Sold all Bitcoin positions at $82,050, next focus on $70,000 to $72,000
On September 4, Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the Leibit mining pool (B.TOP), shared his recent trading operations, stating that he sold 100% of his BTC position when Bitcoin was around $82,050. Jiang Zhuoer said that the shift from previously "not shorting ETH" to shorting BTC was mainly because ETH's price movement was more volatile; meanwhile, after BTC ETF funds showed weakness and experienced outflows for the first time, BTC instead rose to near the upper boundary of the $81,500 box, creating a good selling opportunity. Additionally, he believes that this round of BTC consolidation lasted only about 13 days, which is insufficient time to break through the important resistance between $83,000 and $84,000, and the short-term upward wick pattern after breaking $82,000 is a good trading signal. Regarding the subsequent trend, Jiang Zhuoer’s scenario is: BTC will first fall back to the $70,000 to $72,000 range, regarded as the "last chance to get in"; then it may oscillate between $76,000 and $82,000 while looking for profit-taking points; if the price further rises to $83,000 to $84,000, then $82,300 will be used as a stop-loss reference.Bitcoin has climbed back above $80,000. It rose more than 5% in 24 hours, with Ethereum following up 4.8%. Shorts were liquidated for $415 million, and 119,000 traders were wiped out. The market's explanation is unanimous: Waller turned dovish, the probability of a rate hike plummeted, and risk assets rebounded. But if you stare at the CME FedWatch curve for one more second, you'll notice a strange overlooked fact: the rate hike probability dropped from 63.2% to 50.4%. Pay attention to this number. 50.4%. This is not a "dovish turn." This is a split precise to one decimal place. Half believe there will be a rate hike, half believe there won't. The market hasn't reached a consensus; it has just shifted from "hawkish hesitation" to a "perfect split." And Bitcoin, right in this split crack, rose 5%. Change the subject to "that 12.8 percentage point split." If the subject is "Waller," the story is a "dovish signal." If the subject is "Bitcoin," the story is a "risk asset rebound." But if the subject changes to the 12.8 percentage point split from 63.2% to 50.4% in rate hike probability, the whole narrative changes. This split is not "narrowing," it is becoming an abyss. At 63.2%, the market at least had one judgment: a rate hike was more likely. Traders could build positions around this judgment; longs and shorts had at least one tilted direction. But when the number drops to 50.4%, the market loses direction. This is no longer "more dovish," this is "uncertainty." And Bitcoin happens to be right in the "uncertainty" status Printing money to buy itself? That's ruthless!! I'm on the opposite side, hitting my thigh! 😭
$HYPE rose another 6.6% today to touch 88, right next to ZEC which is trending first, and it hasn't fallen behind.
The buyback engine is really running. After AQAv2 went live, 90% of the protocol's USDC reserves' earnings go directly into the Assistance Fund to buy + burn HYPE; plus 99% of trading fees also follow this path, cumulatively burning $1.3 billion and 46.89 million tokens. Hyperliquid and Pump.fun have covered 90% of the buybacks for the entire year of 2026, so this buying pressure doesn't rely on trading volume.
Good news is lining up. Hashdex's NCIQ ETF included HYPE (3.36% weighting), Hyperliquid Strategies expanded its equity financing quota from 1 billion to 2.5 billion, and a giant whale swept $11.8 million in 24 hours. US market entry is also in talks, leveraging Kraken's parent company Payward to run Bitnomial's CFTC-compliant perpetual contracts.
But September 6 is a hurdle. 9.92 million HYPE tokens (about $800 million, 2.37% of circulation) unlock after that day, and HyperLabs just unstaked 433,000 tokens also locked on the same day. Historically, HYPE's reaction to unlocks has been mild, but this time the volume is large enough.
RSI at 82.8 is overbought, resistance at 86.55; breaking it targets 90-95, failing to hold 80 means a pullback. Expect a surge before unlock, and the unlock day will be decisive based on the claim rate.What exactly can the new CORE v1.0.26 node version bring?
The hard fork has completed a full network upgrade, and the v1.0.26 node version is now online. Many only know about the burning of 150 million tokens but are unaware of all the changes brought by the new node version.
✅1. Fix of a critical reward minting vulnerability (the core issue)
The old node version had a logic flaw allowing malicious validator nodes to obtain excessive block rewards, causing token oversupply.
The new version completely blocks this vulnerability code, preventing excessive minting at the node's core level.
This is not a fix for wallet theft vulnerabilities but a fix for the protocol's inflation reward logic to prevent unlimited minting of CORE that would dilute all holders' assets.
✅2. Permanent burning of 150 million excess tokens, rewriting token supply
Under the new node rules, the already generated 150 million excess CORE tokens are permanently burned and removed from the total token supply.
- There will be no clawback of tokens already held by malicious nodes, and no on-chain transactions will be rolled back.
- Ordinary users’ staking, transfers, and DApp interaction histories are fully preserved; user assets remain unchanged.
From the node rule perspective, this eliminates the token dilution crisis caused by this incident.
✅3. Staking & BTC hash dual staking functions will restart soon
The official announcement states staking rewards will resume within 48 hours, effective only after all nodes upgrade to v1.0.26.
- CORE staking rewards will be produced again
- The BTC hash power staking module will resume operation, restoring BTC hash power participation in network security.
Nodes that do not upgrade will be disconnected from the mainnet and unable to produce blocks or earn rewards.
✅4. A lesson for public chain governance, constraining validator nodes
The new node version enhances validation of validator node behavior; abnormal excessive reward transactions will be directly intercepted by the protocol.
This constrains malicious nodes: attempts to exploit reward logic loopholes for profit will be blocked at the node level, no longer waiting for a hard fork fix after the fact.
⚠️ What the new node version cannot do (don’t expect these)
1. ❌ It will not directly raise the coin price. The node only fixes protocol code and does not create buy pressure out of thin air; market trends are still determined by capital, chip distribution, and macro factors.
2. ❌ It cannot erase the trust damage caused by this bug incident. The vulnerability is fixed, but developers’ and institutions’ trust in the project requires long-term operation and a complete incident report to gradually restore.
3. ❌ It cannot prevent users from unstaking and selling. After the fix, users can still freely unstake and sell on exchanges; selling pressure risk objectively remains.
4. ❌ It does not guarantee no new bugs will appear in the future. It only fixes this vulnerability; complex public chain code still carries unknown risks ahead.
📌 What this means for ordinary participants
1. Staking users: wait for all nodes to fully sync, staking rewards to resume, and continue mining profits; be sure your staking frontend connects to the new mainnet version.
2. Traders: node fix only “defuses a bomb,” it does not mean a bull market has started. The real test is when exchanges open deposits and withdrawals at 5 PM, revealing true chip competition.
3. Ecosystem developers: with stable underlying reward logic, DApps and contracts can continue safe deployment without worrying about black swan events of token oversupply.BTC is back above 80,000.
The market has actually been quite interesting these past couple of days. It was hovering around 77,000 earlier, then as soon as Waller spoke, risk assets immediately reacted.
But right now, I'm more interested in today's non-farm payrolls.
If the employment data shows a clear weakening, the market might continue to price in rate cuts or no hikes, which would definitely be a boost for BTC.
However, if the data is strong, then it's hard to say, especially since BTC is already near 80,000, which isn't a low level.
There's another detail I find worth watching:
BTC ETFs saw inflows again yesterday, but ETH ETFs' continuous net inflows have stopped.
So it doesn't look like "all funds rushing in together" anymore; it seems more like funds are starting to pick directions.
If BTC can truly turn 80,000 into support going forward, I'd be more optimistic.
If it rallies and then falls back again, then it looks like continued consolidation.
Watching the non-farm tonight feels way more interesting than guessing candlesticks 😂
What do you think? After the non-farm comes out, will BTC rally first or drop first?
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息
#比特币再破80000美元
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Waller speaks out: August inflation will decide whether to raise interest rates in September! The real test for BTC has arrived.
The core contradiction in the market is becoming increasingly clear:
Employment is cooling down, but inflation has not been fully resolved.
Waller's latest statement sends a very clear signal:
If August inflation continues to decline, he tends to support keeping interest rates unchanged in September; but if inflation heats up again, rate hikes remain an option.
What does this mean?
The September FOMC is no longer about who sounds more hawkish, but about which side the data ultimately supports.
This news is especially important for BTC.
Because the market may soon trade around a very clear transmission chain:
August CPI → September rate hike expectations → US Treasury yields → US dollar index → global risk appetite → BTC
If CPI continues to cool down:
CPI↓ → rate hike probability↓ → US Treasury yields↓ → USD↓ → liquidity expectations improve → BTC↑
This is the most comfortable macro environment for BTC.
But if CPI rises again:
CPI↑ → rate hike probability↑ → US Treasury yields↑ → USD↑ → risk appetite declines → BTC under pressure
And now there is a new variable—oil prices.
Recent Middle East tensions have caused crude oil prices to rise significantly. If high oil prices further transmit to transportation, energy, and commodity prices, the market's biggest concern will emerge:
Energy inflation resurges.
This is not good news for the Federal Reserve.
Because US employment is already showing signs of cooling, but if inflation rebounds, the Fed will be in a very awkward position:
Cutting rates risks inflation, maintaining high rates risks further employment deterioration.
So in the next two weeks, the market is likely to see very obvious data battles.
First hurdle: this Friday's nonfarm payrolls.
If nonfarm payrolls weaken significantly, unemployment rises, and wage growth slows, rate hike expectations will cool first.
BTC may react first.
Second hurdle: August CPI.
This is the key data that truly determines the direction of the September FOMC.
If CPI continues to cool, Waller's statement today will be further interpreted by the market as a dovish signal.
If CPI rises beyond expectations, Wash's previous hawkish logic may regain the upper hand.
Then the market will not be trading "whether to raise rates in September," but rather:
"Does the Fed need to raise rates again?"
These two expectations have completely different impacts on BTC.
So what BTC needs to watch most now is not just a technical breakout.
But whether macro liquidity has truly started to shift.
If the following occurs:
Weak nonfarm + cooling CPI + falling US Treasury yields + weakening USD + continued inflows into BTC ETFs
Then the high-level consolidation is very likely to gradually evolve into new upward momentum.
But if the following occurs:
Strong nonfarm + CPI rebound + rising US Treasury yields + strengthening USD
Then even if BTC surges short-term, caution is needed for a pullback or even retesting lower support.
So don't rush to judge bull or bear now.
What the market is really waiting for are these two cards: nonfarm and CPI.
Waller has made it very clear:
Whether to raise rates in September depends on data, not stories.
In short: nonfarm determines the first wave of expectations, CPI determines the final direction; and BTC's biggest trading mainline going forward is the "inflation → rate hikes → US Treasuries → USD → liquidity" chain. $BTC #沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Just now, $BTC has broken through $82,000 at its highest. If we only look at $BTC, today is a very beautiful breakout candlestick. But what really excites me is that this rise has started to spread to the altcoin market. $ETH has returned above $2,400, $BNB has risen to around $700, $XRP has directly surged above $1.4, and $SOL has climbed back above $100. This is just the first layer. Looking further down, capital has clearly begun to seek assets with higher Beta. $ZEC's increase today is very exaggerated, and it has become one of the strongest assets in the market again; $ENA has also shown a significant rally; $ARB is starting to catch up, and $ADA is also showing strong performance. This is what I have been waiting for: not just $BTC rising, but after $BTC rises, capital starts to feel that $BTC's rise is not fast enough. If this logic continues to spread, I will focus on a few groups next. The first group: $ETH, $SOL, $BNB, $XRP. This is the "thermometer" of the altcoin market. If $ETH can hold above $2,500, it is very significant; $SOL climbing back above $105 indicates that risk appetite continues to increase; if $BNB breaks through $720, there is a chance to open up more space; if $XRP holds above $1.45, short-term strength may continue further. The second group: $AAVE, $UNI, $CRV, $PENDLE, $ENA. This group is DeFi. If $ETH continues to rise, I insteadSeptember BTC Historical Performance
September has not had a good reputation in Bitcoin's history. In the 13 Septembers since 2013, 8 ended down, with an average decline of 3.08% and a median of -3.12%, making it one of the worst-performing months of the year. From 2017 to 2022, September closed negative for six consecutive years.
However, this pattern has failed in the last three years, with gains of 3.91% in 2023, 7.29% in 2024, and 5.16% in 2025.
This year, Bitcoin rose 24.95% in August, marking the largest single-month gain in 2026, with the price surging from the $60,000 range to above $80,000 at one point. Previously, it had fallen 22.2% in Q1 and 14.09% in Q2. As of early September, Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $75,000 and $78,000, still quite far from the all-time high of $126,000, with a market dominance of 59.16% and a total crypto market cap of $2.675 trillion. In the last week of August, crypto funds saw a net inflow of $3.2 billion, the largest weekly amount since October 2025.
At least from a capital flow perspective, the start of September is worth looking forward to. $BNB bulls are starting to weaken after the surge
BNB's short-term rebound has been strong, but the upward momentum is already fading.
Large cycle funds have not returned; this wave can only be considered a rebound.
Currently, on the eve of the non-farm payrolls, the market is very volatile, not suitable for aggressive chasing of gains.
Key levels to watch:
Upper resistance around 730.
Key support at 700, followed by 690.
Price must hold above resistance to have room to continue upward; if support breaks, the rebound structure will be destroyed.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 ⚠️ BTC short-term clearly "switching from short to long"
BTC quickly surged from about $77,000 on September 3 to a high of around $82,000, reclaiming the key resistance at $80,000. The short-term trend shifted from a rebound to a breakout structure.
Core reversal: Waller stated that if inflation cools down, the rate is likely to be maintained in September, with the probability of a rate hike dropping from about 63% to about 50%;
Regarding ETFs, on September 2, spot BTC ETF net inflow was +$101.1 million (IBIT +$115.4 million), a significant reversal from the large outflow the previous day.
Derivatives show massive short covering, with total market short liquidations exceeding about $443 million (BTC about $205 million).
Short-term bias is 8/10 bullish, stop shorting the rebound.
Trading plan:
• Go long on a pullback between $79,500–80,200 without breaking below, stop loss at $78,700, targets at $82,800 → $85,000 → $86,500.
• Secondary option: 1-hour candle close breakout above $82,800 + moderate increase in OI + Funding not extremely positive, go long on breakout, same targets as above.
Maximum risk: Today's non-farm payrolls. If data significantly exceeds expectations, pushing up rate hike expectations and 10Y yield back above 4.8%, this rally may quickly give back gains.
Invalidation line: $78,700. If it breaks below and OI increases, consider it a false breakout and cancel all long plans.
Current execution: No shorting, no chasing $81K; wait for pullback to confirm breakout.
#沃勒：8月通胀决定9月是否加息 Supplement: This address added 323,125 UNI again 8 minutes ago, worth 2.08 million USD
Today, a total of 1 million $UNI has been accumulated, with a total value of 6.355 million USD, at an average price of about $6.35
Wallet address 0xc8686f611D59DeEe9c549bc844E4AD314e0F4972