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Many stocks in the US market opened strong, $SPCX 148+ is a key point, and it might even be worth shorting a bit because the last rebound didn't surpass 150. This time it probably won't break through in one go either. Even if it does, a pullback will likely return to this level.
The main driver behind this SPCX rise seems to be the Nasdaq index adjustment rush, combined with the recent positive news from Waller and the upcoming Starship 14 launch.
Here are some key dates for SPCX:
September 9: Next batch unlock
September 11: Nasdaq announces new weighted index after market close
September 15: Starship 14 launch
September 18: Passive funds complete portfolio adjustments during closing auction
After September 21: All positive catalysts will have been realized
Next, we need to watch if 150 is broken through. Only if it holds above this level can we look towards the 155-160 range Saudi crude oil exports fall to a 9-year low, oil prices soar Brothers, there's big news in the oil market today — Saudi crude oil exports have directly dropped to a 9-year low, and oil prices have surged. Many ask, what does the rise in oil prices have to do with the crypto world? It’s very related; today I’ll explain it plainly. First, the conclusion: the surge in oil prices is short-term bearish for crypto, mid-term depends on the Fed’s stance, but long-term it might actually fuel the narrative of $BTC as "digital gold." But don’t rush to bottom-fish or panic sell; let’s break it down step by step. When oil prices rise, inflation becomes uncontrollable. Oil prices are the engine of inflation. When crude oil is expensive, transportation, chemical, and manufacturing costs all rise, eventually passing on to supermarkets and gas stations, making it hard for CPI to fall. The Fed has been wavering between cutting rates or not, but with oil prices like this, it’s forced not to ease easily, and might even turn hawkish again. What does crypto fear most? Tightening liquidity. When there’s less money in the market, high-risk assets get drained first. Although Bitcoin and Ethereum have many stories, in the short term they still follow the stock market. When stocks fall, crypto likely falls too. So in the short term, this news is bearish for crypto. Especially recently, leveraged long positions are crowded; a spike in oil prices can easily cause sentiment to collapse, and a flash crash could come suddenly. Altcoins will suffer more, with poor liquidity and no bottom when they fall. But crypto has another side. A surge in oil prices often signals geopolitical tension. When the Middle East is unstable, capital looks for safe havens. Traditional safe havens are gold and the US dollar, but Bitcoin has been competing for the "digital gold" spot in recent years. If the situation escalates, partBitcoin has been stuck at 78,000 for 5 days — both bulls and bears are waiting for a trigger.
Currently, BTC is oscillating narrowly between $77,500 and $78,000, with Binance briefly spiking to $78,105 before pulling back. The 24-hour change is less than 0.5%, and it has dropped 2% over the past 7 days. The pre-market low touched $76,400 but was quickly supported by buyers — this level coincides with the average holding cost of active investors at $76,350 and serves as a short-term strong support.
Why can't it rise? The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has surged to 66%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield has jumped to 4.8%. Capital prefers to earn interest rather than take risks on assets. Any flare-up in the US-Iran conflict can cause BTC to drop 0.5% within 15 minutes.
Why can't it fall? Grayscale ETF continues to see inflows, and whales have placed numerous buy orders around $77,000. On-chain data shows that short-term holders have largely exited, significantly reducing selling pressure.
The critical point is tomorrow — the non-farm payroll data release. Before that, any chasing of gains or panic selling is gambling. The longer the consolidation, the more intense the breakout, but when the direction is unclear, the best strategy is to hold cash and wait for signals. Support is at $76,200, and a breakout above $78,300 will mark a true start. Patience is more important than intelligence.
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 #Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 $BTC 829 coins all rising, $BTC approaching $80,000: real breakthrough or a pre-CPI rush?
OKX market shows current $BTC at $78,830, up 2.21% in 24 hours.
$ETH at $2,428, up 1.07%.
$SOL at $101.6, up about 2%.
$HYPE at $82.95, up about 2.1%.
$OKB at $108, up 1.2%.
Total market cap about $2.67 trillion, slightly up 0.08%; 829 coins up, 363 down, market clearly warming up.
News: UK’s largest retail investment platform opens 9 BTC and ETH ETNs, indicating long-term expansion of incremental capital inflow.
But on the macro side, Fed’s Waller points September rate decision to August CPI, so pressure remains.
BTC’s related descending wedge data suggests it’s more like a range-bound recovery now, not a trend breakout.
Sector-wise, GameFi up 4.76%, PayFi up 3.93%, Layer2 up 3.78%.
Sui ecosystem up 6.37%, SUI up 6.6%, UNI up 5.45%. RWA down 0.74%.
Base ecosystem down 0.97%, MORPHO counter-trend down 5.18%.
This rebound has good breadth, but true confirmation still depends on whether BTC can volume-wise hold above $80,000.
Before CPI release, bullish structure is visible, but definitely not the main upward wave yet. U.S. Stock Rally Expands: Nasdaq Gains Nearly 1% Intraday, Star Tech Stocks Mostly Up, Broadcom Drops Over 6% Post-Earnings
On September 3, the U.S. stock rally further expanded, with the Nasdaq gaining nearly 1% intraday. Most star tech stocks rose: SpaceX and Tesla climbed nearly 6%, Meta rose over 4%, Microsoft gained nearly 3%, Nvidia and Google both increased nearly 2%; Broadcom fell over 6% due to earnings factors.
From pre-market to intraday on September 3, the overall U.S. stock market maintained strength, with the Nasdaq index's intraday gains expanding to nearly 1%, driven mainly by the tech sector. At the individual stock level, performance was notably divergent: SpaceX and Tesla led gains, rising nearly 6%, reflecting a renewed market risk appetite for Musk-related assets; Meta rose over 4%, Microsoft nearly 3%, Nvidia and Google both nearly 2%, with major tech stocks collectively strengthening, indicating that capital is still concentrating on AI and cloud computing themes, and the momentum in tech stocks remains unbroken. Conversely, Broadcom's stock price dropped over 6% after its earnings release, becoming the main drag on the tech sector that day, showing that despite a generally positive sentiment at the index level, the market still demands strict earnings fulfillment from individual stocks, with clear post-earnings pricing divergence. Overall, this information serves as a snapshot of the day's market, valuable for depicting the current capital structure and sentiment in the U.S. tech sector: on one hand, broad gains among leading tech stocks support expectations for the Nasdaq to continue reaching new highs; on the other hand, increased volatility among individual stocks during earnings season warns investors to be cautious of independent risks in post-earnings stock performance. As I watch the market tighten into a holding pattern ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls, I see macroeconomic signals taking full control of the narrative. All eyes are glued to this final batch of employment metrics, and from where I sit, it is shaping up to be the ultimate directional catalyst for $BTC. Reading the Labor Market Signals From my perspective, the underlying labor foundation is clearly showing cracks. Looking back at recent data points—including weak private hiring metrics, falling$BTC chops near $77K on thin volume, echoing its earlier tug near $76.3K. Sentiment reads greedy, yet altcoins still lag badly behind the leader, showing the rally hasn't truly broadened out. The real threat here: Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole tone pushed September hike odds from roughly 36% to 57%. If that bet lands, $BTC likely retreats back toward $76.3K to grind it out all over again.#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue It's normal to feel envious, but calmly consider three things:
**First, you only see the ones making money.** Those losing money on shorts won't post about it. Out of 10 people shorting, 1 makes money and posts a screenshot, 9 lose and delete their records—you always see that 1.
**Second, you are your own lesson.** Contract history shows a loss of ¥12,499.95 over 1,253 trades, with a 59% win rate that's actually not low—so how did the money get lost? Mostly by trading back and forth during the bull market, guessing tops to short, getting stopped out, then reversing positions. Your "no shorting in a bull market" rule isn't made up on a whim; it's a loss of real money.
**Third, the math doesn't add up.** BTC is now $77,800, with bull market potential above $126,000+, and downside support at $67,000 at worst. Shorting: if you guess right, you earn 10%; if wrong, you lose 60%, plus in a bull market, drops are sharp but rebounds are faster, so shorts can easily get wiped out by a spike. **A risk-reward ratio of 1:6 means others making a few wins doesn't guarantee long-term profit.**
Your current stance: fully invested in spot waiting for a rise, holding 34,000 USDT ready to buy on dips, ETH longs with take profit and stop loss—**you're positioned to profit whether prices go up or down**, which is much better than chasing short-term swings from shorting.
Others earn their way, you earn in ways you understand. If you're itching, just close the market app.Remixpoint is being quite ruthless this time.
ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, not a single one left.
They sold them all, cashed out about 879 million yen, made a profit of 117.8 million yen, and ended up with only 1,506 BTC.
The most interesting part is, they sold DOGE even at a loss.
ETH, SOL, XRP were all profitable, yet they sold them without hesitation.
This is no longer just a matter of "which coin performed better."
Instead, the company is making a new choice:
What exactly is worth keeping on the balance sheet long-term?
Retail investors like to diversify, fearing missing out on the next 100x coin.
Institutions sometimes are simpler.
If they don’t understand it, they cut it.
If the returns aren’t stable enough, they cut it.
In the end, they only keep the asset they are willing to bet on long-term.
So what’s really worth studying this time isn’t whether Remixpoint is bullish on BTC.
It’s why they would rather give up a basket of altcoins and concentrate their position in BTC?
$BTC $ETH $SOL BTC has climbed back near $77,500.
In the past 24 hours, it rose about 1.5%, while XRP was even stronger, gaining nearly 3%. BNB and SOL also warmed up, but ETH clearly lagged behind.
However, I don't think it's time to be optimistic just yet.
This rebound in BTC is mainly because it held the active investor cost line around $76,350.
The problem is obvious.
Spot funds are not strong, and BTC ETFs actually saw about $236 million outflows.
So this wave looks more like the price stabilized first, rather than funds fully returning.
What’s really worth watching next is not how much it rose today, but whether it can continue to hold around $76,000 and when ETF funds will turn positive again.
Price rebounds are not surprising.
The key is whether funds can be made to believe in this level again.
$BTC $XRP $BNB Robinhood盘初大涨12.3%突破120美元创年内新高，链上交易、评级上调与预测市场三重驱动 9月3日，美股Robinhood（HOOD）盘初涨幅扩大至12.3%，股价突破120美元，创今年1月以来新高。上涨由三重利好共振驱动：Robinhood Chain链上交易爆发、摩根士丹利等华尔街机构密集上调评级、预测市场二季度收入同比暴增逾十倍至1.56亿美元。 9月3日盘初，美股Robinhood（HOOD）涨幅扩大至12.3%，股价突破120美元，创今年1月以来新高，本轮上涨有明确的业务数据支撑，而非单纯情绪推动。第一，链上交易爆发。Robinhood Chain上线后交易活跃度持续攀升，9月首日网络收入超过380万美元，约占当日全网总收入的38%；单日处理交易552万笔，应用收入约266万美元，创上线以来新高。这意味着其股票代币化与链上交易业务已开始产生真实收入，链上叙事正在兑现为业绩。第二，华尔街态度转向积极。摩根士丹利、Piper Sandler等多家机构近期密集上调Robinhood评级与目标价，机构资金的认可为股价提供了估值支撑。第三，预测市场成为新增长曲线。二季度预测市Gold rose another 2.62% in 24 hours, reaching $4472, much stronger than the S&P's 0.70% and the Nasdaq's 0.63%. Last time gold rose, I said money was buying "things getting more expensive," not tech growth. Today, gold rose together with Nvidia (+3.01%) and Meta (Facebook's parent company, +4.60%), while Apple (-0.78%) and AMD (-0.86%) were still falling. This is no longer about safe haven or mindless risk appetite; money is choosing "high elasticity with a story."
The strangest part is within the crypto camp. MicroStrategy (MSTR) rose 4.31%, Coinbase (a US crypto exchange) rose 4.16%, but miners didn't keep up: MARA (Bitcoin miner) only rose 1.05%, Riot (Bitcoin miner) even fell 0.19%. Although all crypto-related, funds only go to those with BTC directly on their balance sheets and those collecting transaction fees, not to mining operations. This indicates the market is betting on BTC's financial attributes, not mining profitability.
This divergence is more worth watching than gold's big rise. If miners don't catch up next, this wave of crypto stocks is just capital passing through, not an overall industry improvement. Those chasing Coinbase and MSTR higher need to distinguish whether they're buying a premium or confirmation.The rise in gold this week is mainly driven by the resonance of three major factors
📉 Trigger: U.S. employment data "surprises on the downside," cooling rate hike expectations
This is the most direct trigger. The U.S. August ADP employment data (the "small nonfarm payrolls") released this week was far below expectations:
· Actual increase: only 38,000.
· Market expectation: about 47,000 - 48,000.
The weak data slightly cooled the market's expectations for a Fed rate hike in September, directly igniting this round of gold rebound.
🛢️ Key turning point: Geopolitical risk shifts from "suppressing" to "supporting"
The role of geopolitics reversed this week, which is key to gold's V-shaped reversal.
· Previous suppression: The escalation of U.S.-Iran conflict pushed up oil prices, exacerbated inflation concerns, strengthened rate hike expectations, causing gold prices to fall instead of rise.
· Shift to support: Subsequently, Trump hinted that military action would not be "prolonged," significantly easing market concerns about runaway inflation, turning geopolitical risk into a positive for gold.
💵 Core driver: The "double whammy" of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields eases
Under the combined effect of the above two factors, the previously suppressive strong dollar and soaring U.S. Treasury yields have eased.
· The dollar index retreated from a nearly three-week high.
· The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield also fell back from a three-year high.
Since gold is a non-interest-bearing asset, falling interest rates mean lower holding costs, directly benefiting gold prices. #黄金ETF增持近10吨，期权波动受关注 #30年期美债收益率连续41天站上5% $USELESS Just checked the on-chain fund movements, many dead accounts are actually large holders with significant profits, none of them have sold. Only a few small retail investors have sold some, causing the price to drop slightly. If these large holders start selling, the price will probably crash directly. This is why the 🐕 whales have been pumping the price continuously; they want to hold a big move to sell all at once.$BTC is approaching the $77,000 range,
with trading volume becoming increasingly thin,
the price action is replicating the back-and-forth tug-of-war around $76,300 seen in recent days.
Market sentiment has already entered the greed zone,
but altcoins as a whole are far behind BTC's pace,
indicating that this rebound has not truly spread across the entire market,
but is just a pulse rally in a few sectors.
The real looming risk comes from the macro side: Wash's hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole have raised the market's expectation for a September rate hike from 36% to 57%. If this pricing continues to ferment, $BTC is very likely to fall back again,
returning to around $76,300 and starting a new round of volatile consolidation.
#财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 In the cryptocurrency market in September, most people didn't make money, not because they couldn't understand the market, but because they treated the "Fed-driven volatile market" as a one-sided bull market. Recently, the market has been very realistic: BTC has been fluctuating between $76,400 and $77,800, with buying support when it falls and pressure from rate hike expectations when it rises. ETH's trend is weaker, showing weekly weakness. Mainstream coins are clearly diverging, and small coins are experiencing alternating pulses of sharp rises and falls. The proportion of long liquidations across the network in 24 hours is relatively high; many people chase the highs and sell the lows repeatedly getting hit—rushing in when prices rise and getting washed out immediately on pullbacks. Looking at the logic combined with current hot topics: 1. The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has increased, U.S. Treasury yields are rising, and risk assets are generally under pressure. This is currently the biggest external factor suppressing the crypto market. Non-farm payroll and ADP data will directly affect BTC's short-term volatility. Historically, September is a relatively weak month for Bitcoin, so don't expect continuous, mindless one-way rallies. 2. Institutional trends are changing. The U.S. SEC has updated transfer agent rules to start adapting to on-chain tokenized assets; Wyoming has introduced on-chain reserve proof for stablecoins. Web3 compliance is genuinely advancing and is no longer just a hype narrative. Real-world assets (RWA) are being tokenized on-chain. AI+Crypto remains the mid-to-long-term main theme but won't surge daily; it's a logic of gradual realization. For ordinary participants: ① The biggest taboo in a volatile market is going all-in or using high leverage to chase hot topics. The greed index is still in the greed zone, market sentiment is overheated, and contract long liquidations are frequent. Leverage is a double-edged sword; don't let short-term market moves cloud your judgment. ② Distinguish short-term$BTC chops near $77K on thin volume, echoing its earlier tug near $76.3K. Sentiment reads greedy, yet altcoins still lag badly behind the leader, showing the rally hasn't truly broadened out. The real threat here: Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole tone pushed September hike odds from roughly 36% to 57%. If that bet lands, $BTC likely retreats back toward $76.3K to grind it out all over again.
$ETH
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #SaudiCrude9YearLow
$SOL Bitcoin has recovered toward $79K after briefly slipping below $77K, suggesting buyers successfully defended the lower levels. But the derivatives market is sending a more interesting signal. 👀 📉 Open Interest: Fell roughly 3.8%, from 331,100 $BTC on Aug. 21 to 318,600 BTC on Aug. 31. Meanwhile, long funding costs have been rising. That combination is important: price is recovering while overall positioning is still being reduced. This is very different from a rally driven by aggressive leverMask Brother talks about the rumors of the 9/9 Apple event in this episode:
**News:** The iPhone 18 Pro series is expected to increase in price by at least $200, with the Chinese market possibly seeing a 1000+ yuan increase; the first foldable iPhone will launch first in North America, Mac/iPad prices have already gone up; he is not optimistic about the foldable iPhone.
**What concerns you is just one thing: you need to raise your budget for the iPhone 18 Ultra SIM-unlocked version.** You originally planned to get it for 10,000 after meeting your asset target, but with the global price hike trend and SIM-unlocked phones following overseas pricing, 10,000 might only cover the standard version, and Ultra will likely be around 11,000-12,000. But that's a later matter; the trigger condition is to first earn enough to reach the 140,000 withdrawal threshold, so no rush.
**Regarding AAPL:** Price increases are a double-edged sword—profit margins can hold, but sales might be hit. The 9/9 event will show if the market accepts it. Your rule remains unchanged: wait until after the 9/16-18 risk assessment before evaluating; don't touch it now.
You know Mask Brother's background—he suffered a leveraged loss in July and recovered by selling memberships. Treat his news content as quick news flashes, and don't follow his opinions. This episode is purely news without any sales pitch, so feel free to check it out.
Need to write a copy? The angle of Apple price hikes + SIM-unlocked phones is too niche and doesn't fit the brand persona of the community; I suggest not writing it. ADP first poured cold water on the market: In August, the US private sector added only 38,000 jobs, below the expected 48,000, the lowest since January this year; manufacturing decreased by 17,000, and professional and business services decreased by 16,000. However, expectations for rate cuts/hikes have not significantly cooled. CME data shows the market still bets on about a 62% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September. Meanwhile, oil prices remain near $90, US Treasury yields stay high, and inflation pressures continue to limit market imagination about policy shifts. More notably, July's nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000, and previous May and June data were significantly revised downward, indicating a clear cooling in the US employment market. A Reuters survey expects August nonfarm payrolls to increase by about 56,000, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. The focus tonight is on nonfarm payrolls: 🔥 >100,000: rate hike expectations heat up, BTC under pressure ⚠️ Around 75,000: market may still trade on rate hike logic 😐 About 50,000-60,000: rate hike expectations cool down, BTC may get a breather 🥶 Close to 0 or negative: employment significantly worsens, policy expectations may quickly reverse Currently, BTC is fluctuating around $77,000, no need to bet on direction prematurely. Wait for the data to land, then see how the market moves. Additionally, the latest news shows Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has stated that if inflation continues to cool in August, he tends to keep rates unchanged in September, indicating internal disagreement on rate hikes. The real test is tonight's nonfarm payrolls; before the data is out—be patient#加密财库扩张面临指数资格考验
The gameplay of crypto treasuries has completely changed. It used to be about who buys more, now it's about who survives longer.
Strategy and BitMine both made moves this week.
One bets on BTC appreciation, the other earns ETH staking rewards. Different approaches, but both are betting on the same thing—the long-term value of crypto assets.
But now both face a common problem—MSCI might kick them out of the index.
MSCI's new rule is simple: companies with less than 50% operating assets must pass five financial tests; triggering four or more means losing eligibility for inclusion in the MSCI Global Investable Market Index. In the simulation screening, Strategy and Metaplanet were directly listed as "immediate removal" candidates.
If enforced, passive index funds would be forced to sell these companies' stocks. This isn't the market being bearish; it's the rules forcing the sale. The biggest risk for Strategy and BitMine isn't crypto prices themselves, but that they might be redefined by the world's largest index provider from "investable assets" to "non-investable assets."
Strategy's moat is 845,100 BTC, the world's second-largest Bitcoin holder. BitMine's moat is staking income—$335 million annualized revenue; even if ETH prices stay flat, the company is still making money.
One bears price risk, the other bears yield risk. But both have to bear the same thing—whether MSCI will kick them out.$ARB 0.128.
Seven days ago it was 0.09. No one was looking.
Now up 40% in a week, another 14% in 24h. Market's dead, but ARB is carrying the whole damn show.
Why? Robinhood paid its first "rent." Orbit chain fees — 10% flow back to the DAO. First month: $360K. Not huge, but it flipped the narrative. ARB is no longer just governance air — it's a yield-generating asset.
Fundamentals solid too: $6.19M in H1 revenue, 97% gross margin.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue Funds have not truly left the crypto market; they are merely seeking new footholds. Recent sets of ETF data combined reveal some intriguing signals📊: On August 31, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $216.7 million, with BlackRock's IBIT single product contributing $205.9 million; Ethereum ETFs added another $87.7 million in the same period, extending the consecutive days of inflow to 11 trading days; while Solana's weekly inflow was about $153 million, marking the strongest single-week performance since the product's launch🔥.
Three streams of capital are active simultaneously, and the most reasonable explanation is that institutional investors are rebalancing within crypto assets rather than exiting completely. BTC has taken on the entry point most familiar to traditional funds, ETH benefits from the ongoing repair of the ecosystem narrative, and SOL's surge more reflects the market's revaluation of high-throughput chains. This rotation pattern tests the judgment on segmented sectors more than a unilateral broad rally.
Of course, inflow data only represent preferences through specific subscription channels and cannot cover the full picture of on-chain real demand or leverage sentiment. If macro interest rate expectations stir again, the currently seemingly orderly rotation could quickly turn into a synchronized sell-off. Please view short-term volatility rationally; this article does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $ETH $SOLRobinhood Chain's data is a bit outrageous.
On September 1st, the single-day DEX volume reached 1.595B, up 61% from 989M just four days earlier.
On-chain DeFi deposits (TVL) are 738M, stablecoin balances 797M, and cross-chain assets $2.524B.
The mainnet has only been live for two months (launched 7/1), and the TVL has nearly increased eightfold.
The logic is clear: Robinhood moved 493 US stock tokens onto Arbitrum, allowing retail investors to trade tokenized stocks and memes on-chain, with all fees flowing back to their own L2.
This is not a DeFi revolution; it's a brokerage moving the exchange onto the chain.
The question is: how much of this volume is from real users, and how much is bot activity? We'll see after the meme cools down.
Have you used Robinhood Chain? Does it feel smoother than Uniswap?
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 BTC holding near $77.8K while ETH and SOL lag suggests a selective, cautious risk bid—not a broad crypto breakout.
With NFP and the FOMC ahead, macro still matters. Gold inflows and weak crude add to the defensive tone.
Until participation broadens, durability matters more than momentum. Strong balance sheets should stay preferred.
Just my view, not financial advice.#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citibank, Deutsche Bank, and 21 other financial institutions recently announced a joint plan to establish a new company in the second half of 2026 and launch a US dollar stablecoin in the first half of 2027. The project will cover scenarios such as cross-border payments and digital asset settlement, and will comply with the US GENIUS Act and the EU MiCA regulations.
In the short term, the positions of $USDG and $USDC are difficult to shake. Currently, USDT has a circulation of about $183.3 billion, and USDC about $73.4 billion. Both have built a strong moat thanks to deep liquidity network effects and wide access through exchanges, wallets, and DeFi protocols. In contrast, the precedent of bank-issued stablecoins—such as the US dollar token launched last year by Société Générale, which has a circulation of only $12.5 million to date—shows that "a coin issued by a bank" does not naturally equal "a coin the market will use."
However, the long-term threat cannot be ignored. These 21 institutions hold top global payment networks, customer channels, and compliance capabilities. If they truly embed stablecoins into cross-border clearing and settlement layers, rather than merely as "US dollar deposits on the blockchain," it will represent a genuine paradigm shift. Bank-issued stablecoins can directly reach wholesale and retail users through existing customers without first competing for adoption on crypto-native platforms. This represents a slow but continuous erosion of USDT's "offshore dollar" moat.
The key question is: do the banks want to take a share of the pie, or do they want to disrupt their own clearing systems? The answer determines how much time remains.
#21家金融机构拟推美元稳定币 $BTC failed three times to break through 80000, the short squeeze is dead, and the initial jobless claims data dealt another blow: how much time do the bulls have left?
Bitcoin's performance at the 80000 USD level looks like a trapped beast fighting for survival. Three attempts, three retreats; each sharp rise is as fleeting as fireworks, followed by a prolonged decline. K33's data reveals the truth behind this rebound: the largest single-day short squeeze in history drove the rally, but futures open interest then plummeted—the fuel for short covering has burned out. Now the question is, who will take over the position?
Key point one: The short squeeze is dead, a buying vacuum has appeared. This rally from 75000 to 81000 is essentially a short squeeze, not a trend reversal. After shorts were liquidated, forced buying disappeared, exposing the market to real supply and demand. The drop in open interest indicates leveraged funds are retreating, and new bulls are unwilling to enter.
Key point two: ETF inflows are a drop in the bucket. Last week's net inflow of $1.92 billion looks impressive but averages less than $300 million per day. Facing profit-taking at high levels and $6.4 billion in options expiry selling pressure, it's barely enough to fill a gap. Once ETF buying slows, the price will lose its last line of defense.
Key point three: Employment data deals another blow. Initial jobless claims at 206,000 exceeded expectations, and the employment gap is widening. Market logic may shift from "rate cut optimism" to "recession fear," putting risk assets under broad pressure. Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative crumbles in the face of real liquidity contraction.
Technically, the picture is even more grim: the hourly MACD shows continuous bearish divergence, the 20-day moving average is pressing down, and the distribution pattern of sharp rises followed by slow declines is crystal clear. A rebound to 79500-80000 is just handing chips to the shorts.
Strategy: Short in batches above 79500, stop loss at 81000, first target 76000, break below targets 73000. Don't be fooled by a single-day long green candle—that's handing the shorts a knife. Who is the bull story for? #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 $ARB at $0.13, do you dare to go all in with a heavy position?
Let's look at the surface first: Layer2 ecosystem benefits are bombarding one after another, causing a rapid short-term price surge, and retail investors' FOMO sentiment is at its peak. It has risen 24.52% in the past 7 days and 44.73% in 30 days, climbing from the June low of 0.07 all the way to 0.13, nearly doubling. Elara upgrade activation, continuous rollout of ecosystem projects, and consecutive days of net inflow of spot funds have pushed the 24-hour trading volume to $298 million. But the market always quietly tops out when retail investors are collectively celebrating.
The daily RSI has surged to 61.84, with an overbought warning lighting up yellow.
First point: ARB has transformed from an "airdrop wool coin" to a "core cash flow asset of Layer2." The sequencer fee-sharing mechanism will be implemented in Q3 2026, with protocol revenue proportionally distributed to ARB holders. The protocol revenue hit a record high in a single day in September. Previously, all profits from Arbitrum went to the foundation, with no benefit to ARB holders. Now, the larger the on-chain transaction volume, the more cash flow is distributed to holders. ARB is no longer just a governance air token relying on community hype; it is a solid Layer2 dividend core asset.
Second point: $0.13 has already priced in most of the positive news. After a recent large bullish candle with volume surge, it entered a low-volume consolidation phase. The price stands above all moving averages, with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages forming a golden cross, and the medium-term bullish arrangement looks very strong. But the daily RSI is near 61, Bollinger Bands are hugging the upper band, and the MACD red bars are flattening, indicating a clear slowdown in upward momentum. When all the good news is out, it turns bearish. The moment FOMO peaks, a violent shakeout is imminent. Previously with OP and STX, after doubling on Layer2 narratives, they both experienced a 30% correction. ARB will not be an exception.
Third point: The macro data week in September is the biggest variable. Non-farm payrolls on September 4 and CPI data on September 11 will be released successively. The Fed's current rate is 3.5-3.75%, and the FOMC meeting on September 15-16 is approaching, with market rate hike expectations already high. The current crypto fear and greed index is near the "greed" zone, and BTC is oscillating between 77k-81k. If macro data turns hawkish and the dollar strengthens, high-level altcoins will be hit first. If BTC breaks below 77k, ARB will likely follow down, first targeting 0.10 then 0.09.
Resistance above: 0.135-0.14 → 0.15-0.16 → 0.17
Support below: 0.115-0.12 → 0.10-0.105 → 0.09
Trading strategy laid out clearly for you:
Short-term players: Don't chase highs; wait for a pullback to 0.115-0.12 to buy in batches. In extreme conditions, add positions at 0.10-0.105. Stop loss if daily close falls below 0.09. Target to sell half at 0.145-0.15, then watch for 0.16-0.17.
Breakout players: Wait for 4h/daily candles to break and hold above 0.14 with volume. Add positions on pullbacks that don't break 0.13. If a false breakout drops below 0.125, exit immediately; don't be stubborn.
Short sellers: Only lightly short at 0.13-0.135 when daily candles show a clear long upper shadow + RSI above 75 + very high funding rates. Stop loss at 0.14-0.145, target 0.11. Win rate is lower than pullback longs, so only play lightly.
Those still shouting at you to all in at 0.13 are either trying to dump on you or are already fully trapped themselves. $BTC $ETH Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 29 in the U.S. on September 3 were 206,000, higher than the market expectation of 205,000, marking a new high since the week of August 15.
Although the data is only slightly above expectations, the signal it sends is quite clear: the U.S. labor market is showing signs of marginal cooling.
This is slightly bullish for BTC in the short term.
Because cooling employment will further strengthen market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, if the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields weaken simultaneously, risk appetite in the market is likely to recover, making it easier for BTC to find support.
However, this data alone is not enough to support a one-sided rally. What truly deserves attention next are the nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting.
From a technical perspective, BTC is currently still in a slightly strong consolidation structure, with $80,000 as a key short-term level. If there is a volume breakout and BTC holds above this level, the market could open up further upside potential; conversely, if employment data strengthens again and rate cut expectations cool off, BTC may retest and confirm support.
In simple terms: a slight weakening in initial jobless claims is bullish for BTC, but whether the next upward move materializes depends on whether subsequent employment data continues to cool.
$BTC
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 📉 Semiconductor sector collectively plunges, funds collectively shift to safe-haven assets
Hynix $SKHY's sharp drop this round really caught people off guard.
Originally, it was slightly up over 1% in the morning session, but in the afternoon it quickly plunged into the red, with losses expanding beyond 2%. Samsung $SAMSUNG and Kioxia $KIOXIA also weakened in sync, putting pressure on the memory sector as a whole.
On the other hand, US stock futures declined while gold surged rapidly against the trend. This is not due to any fundamental negative news for Hynix; HBM orders remain full and the logic remains intact.
The real trigger comes from a rapid shift in market sentiment: the semiconductor stocks in Japan and South Korea had ample gains earlier, accumulating a large amount of profit-taking positions. Once the market wavers, funds quickly flee. Global capital is flowing into safe-haven assets, and the highly elastic semiconductor sector naturally becomes the first to be sold off.
⚠️ This is only a market observation sharing and does not constitute any trading advice #FOMC last set of data before the meeting: Nonfarm payrolls this Friday, the last piece before FOMC 9/4 Nonfarm — good data BTC goes to 74.2K, bad data BTC rebounds to 78.8K
Only one card left before the 9/16 rate hike.
All released data are contradictory:
August ADP +38K (expected 47K, slowest since January)
Beige Book 12 districts: 10 "moderate", employment growth slowing
But core PCE stays at 3.3%, Carson calculates 54% of 178 subcomponents rose over 3% YoY (47% a year ago) — price increases are expanding
Williams: "Inflation is encouraging, but we need to wait and see"
CME still gives a 62.3% chance of a 25bp hike on 9/16
Translation: Employment is cooling, inflation is sticky, the Fed fears inflation more than unemployment. So even with weak ADP, the rate hike probability didn’t drop, because the market trades on "bad news = Fed more likely to hike."
9/4 20:30 Nonfarm three scenarios (BTC currently 78.4K):
<30K (very weak): rate hike pricing drops to 40%, 10Y Treasury yield falls from 4.79%, BTC rebounds from 78,330 to 78,830, shorts cover, target 79,387
30K–60K (in line): 62% chance hike stays, BTC grinds between 75,800–78,330, three stop-fall signals still half lit
>70K (strong): hike odds surge above 75%, 10Y breaks 4.8% again, BTC breaks 75,800 and fails to reclaim 76K → drops to 74,200, option downside protection zone 68–75K triggered
Summary:
This BTC move from 81.3K down to 76.4K priced in "62% hike + oil 90+ US-Iran tensions" in advance. The 9/4 Nonfarm is not the direction itself but the final adjustment for the 62.3% price — bad data is the only window for bears to hand over the ball to bulls, strong data confirms wave C. $BTC Nonfarm payroll data influences the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations
which then transmit to various asset prices.
Nonfarm data is a key short-term indicator for $BTC direction. Weaker data will strengthen rate cut expectations, benefiting BTC's rebound; conversely, strong employment will heat up rate hike expectations and suppress BTC. On September 3, BTC rose above $77,500, with the market remaining cautious before the data release.
$ETH, as a high-beta risk asset, is also sensitive to interest rate expectations. Strong nonfarm data increases the probability of rate hikes, pushing up U.S. Treasury yields and strengthening the dollar, creating a double valuation squeeze on ETH. On September 3, ETH was around $2,400, down nearly 4% over the past seven days, with the market awaiting guidance from the nonfarm data.
Storage stocks like $SNDK show a "contrarian" reaction to nonfarm data. The July nonfarm data unexpectedly cooled (a decrease of 23,000 jobs), which should have been positive for the stock market but instead became a "catalyst" for a collective plunge in the storage sector—cooling rate hike expectations triggered a large capital shift from storage stocks to sectors like optical communications.
$SOL is far more sensitive to liquidity changes than BTC and ETH. Hot nonfarm data will push up rate hike pricing, putting sustained pressure on the high-beta SOL; if the data is soft, SOL will rebound the fastest. On September 3, SOL remained near $100, with nonfarm data as the key variable.
#FOMC last set of data before Friday's nonfarm
#EarningsObserver: Broadcom beats expectations, Snowflake raises guidance Tomorrow night at 8:30 PM, could the real big wave for BTC be coming? ⚠️
On September 4th, at 20:30 Beijing time, the US August nonfarm payroll data will be released.
Many people are focusing on the "new jobs added" figure to bet on the direction.
But I think the easiest thing to overlook this time is the data revision.
Why?
Because July's nonfarm payroll already showed a clear cooling, and employment data from previous months have been significantly revised downward. On the surface, the US job market still seems to hold up, but looking deeper, the quality of new jobs is declining.
So there is a key scenario for tomorrow night:
If the nonfarm data turns strong again.
The market's first reaction might be:
"The US economy is fine."
"Rate cut expectations continue to be pushed back."
"The dollar and US Treasury yields surge."
BTC may not necessarily rise immediately in the short term.
But if new jobs are weak and previous values continue to be revised down.
The market might trade again:
Employment is deteriorating → rate hike pressure decreases → liquidity expectations improve.
This could truly stimulate risk assets.
The biggest problem many people have now is only looking at the headline.
Nonfarm +50,000?
Nonfarm +100,000?
Then immediately chase longs or shorts.
But the market never trades just a number, but the logic behind that number.
Is employment continuing to worsen?
Is wage growth cooling?
Is the unemployment rate changing?
These are the core factors truly affecting the Fed's next moves.
And don't forget, after nonfarm, there is the September 11 CPI data, which is an important verification before the rate decision.
So don't fantasize about "one big bullish candle directly starting a bull market" tomorrow night.
The biggest opportunities in the market often lie in the gap between expectations.
Strong data doesn't necessarily mean a rise.
Weak data doesn't necessarily mean a fall.
The key is how the market interprets it.
BTC is now at a critical window; nonfarm may bring intense volatility, but what really determines the trend is the whole set of macro factors afterward.
Don't bet on the data, wait for the market to give the answer
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 But don't rush to go all in——
Today's volume is actually not enough. The 24-hour futures trading volume is $67 billion, while spot is only $4 billion——leverage is pushing, spot is following, and this structure will lead to brutal liquidations if bad news hits.
Friday's non-farm payroll data is the real test. Although the probability of a rate hike has dropped from 66% to 62%, the market remains fragile.
In summary:
Five positive factors resonate, pushing BTC from 76,400 back up to 77,600. Whales are buying, ETFs are entering, the dollar is falling, banks are coming in, and regulations are being implemented.
At the 76,000 level, do you dare to go up?
(The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile; please assess risks yourself.) $ETH $SOL $BTC #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 #沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 #财报观察员：博通业绩超预期，Snowflake上调指引 Whale's Precise Top Escape: The Triple Signals Behind HYPE's $132 Million Liquidation
On September 3rd, on-chain analyst Yu Jin detected a major data point: a certain whale address completed a full liquidation of 2.886 million HYPE tokens, profiting $132 million with a return rate as high as 228%. This operation is a textbook case of a "precise top escape," worthy of in-depth analysis from three dimensions.
Operational Method: Perfect Coordination of Long-Term Positioning and Gradual Selling
This whale accumulated HYPE at an average price of about $19.8 early last year and staked it long-term. After more than a year of holding and accumulating staking rewards, it redeemed the entire position from staking at the end of July this year. Then, over the past month, it sold in batches at an average price of about $64.9, with the last batch of 969,000 tokens (about $79.18 million) transferred to an exchange. From the complete chain of "accumulation—staking—redemption—gradual selling," this was a highly planned long-term investment rather than a panic sell-off. Even more noteworthy is that the average selling price of $64.9 was exactly in the mid-to-high range of HYPE's current main upward wave—by early September, HYPE had risen to $81–83, and the whale gradually realized profits during the rise, avoiding liquidity shocks while locking in maximized compound returns.
$HYPE
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 I've been building a position in Marvell for a while now, initially choosing to invest because I was optimistic about the AI high-speed interconnect sector.
Reviewing the financial reports, the business logic and order fundamentals all look quite solid, and the growth story around NVLink support and optical DSP also makes sense.
I never expected that, despite no fundamental issues, the stock price would keep fluctuating downward, steadily declining.
Every day when I open the market and see the unrealized losses, honestly, it wears on my mindset a bit.
The market is sometimes like this; short-term prices don't always fully follow fundamentals. Capital sentiment, supply chain expectations, and macro interest rates all influence the trend.
The market has amplified concerns about Google adding new suppliers, with capital pricing in future competitive pressure in advance. Even if the performance is fine, the valuation will continue to be suppressed.
My approach is a grid strategy, planning to slowly endure the volatility, strictly controlling position size, setting a stop-addition baseline, and avoiding heavy bets on $MRVL #FOMC last set of data before: Nonfarm Payrolls this Friday
This Friday (September 4), the Nonfarm Payrolls report is one of the most important macroeconomic data points for the crypto market this week. It will be released at 20:30 Beijing time and is the last Nonfarm report before the September rate decision meeting.
Currently, the market expects about 50,000 to 60,000 new jobs added in August, with an unemployment rate around 4.1%. July unexpectedly saw a decrease of 23,000 jobs, and the employment data for May and June were revised down by a total of 103,000, indicating a clear cooling in the US labor market.
* Less than 30,000, or even negative
→ Significant deterioration in employment → Expectations for rate cuts/easing rise → US Treasury yields and the dollar weaken → BTC and ETH tend to benefit. If the unemployment rate also rises above 4.2%, the bullish effect will be more pronounced.
* Around 30,000 to 80,000
→ Basically in line with market expectations → The market may experience sharp volatility first, then return to technical trends. This is the most likely range for "wick spikes" and shakeouts.
* Greater than 100,000 to 120,000, with unemployment steady at 4.1%
→ Employment significantly stronger than expected → Rate cut expectations decline → Dollar and US Treasury yields rise → BTC and ETH face short-term pressure.
Also, pay special attention: Wednesday's ADP report showed only 38,000 new jobs, below the market expectation of 48,000; today's initial jobless claims at 206,000 also indicate the labor market is cooling.
I lean slightly towards the probability that Nonfarm Payrolls will be below market expectations.
Weak Nonfarm → BTC likely to first drop/spike down → then has a high probability of rallying afterwards. $XPL is trading at $0.09059 (+8.89%), holding within its 24h range between $0.08075 and $0.09247.
Price is trading above MA5 ($0.08939), MA10 ($0.08817), and MA20 ($0.08591) on the 1H, holding near 24h highs.
Driven by $29.11M USDT in daily turnover and 321.35M $XPL in 24h volume, reclaiming $0.09116 resistance could pave the way for a test of $0.09247 resistance.
@OKX成长学院 #DailyOrbit $KO increases investment in the Chinese market, with 3.25 billion yuan for two new major factories to strengthen the supply chain moat🔥
Coca-Cola's China system doubles down again, with a total of 3.25 billion yuan invested. Two brand-new smart factories in Kunshan and Guangzhou have been put into operation, targeting the two major consumer hubs of the Yangtze River Delta and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area respectively.
The Kunshan factory investment is 2 billion yuan, and the Guangzhou Greater Bay Area base investment is 1.25 billion yuan, adding a total of 26 modern production lines. Overall capacity is directly increased by about 10%, capable of flexibly producing more than twenty brands and over a hundred beverage products, supported by an intelligent warehousing system that shortens delivery chains and strengthens domestic supply chain resilience.
From a capital market perspective, this precisely confirms the underlying logic of Coca-Cola's long-term compound growth.
The barriers for consumer companies lie not only in the brand but also in the production and distribution networks spread across core consumer regions. A well-established local supply chain can reduce transportation costs, quickly respond to market demand, further consolidate high penetration and pricing power, and lay a solid foundation for sustained and stable cash flow and dividends.
Even with macroeconomic cycle shifts, continuously increasing physical production capacity represents the brand's long-term confidence in the Chinese consumer market. However, it should be viewed objectively: capacity expansion is a long-term positive and will not drive short-term stock price explosions. $KO remains a blue-chip stock that profits from time dividends, and is not suitable for short-term market speculation.
Looking at the entire consumer sector, there are actually very few leading companies that can continuously make large counter-cyclical investments in their supply chains.
⚠️Market logic observation only, does not constitute investment advice
#KO #CocaCola #ConsumerBlueChip I have an increasingly clear view on SOL:
It’s not a safe haven, but more like an amplifier of market sentiment.
When the overall market shows some profit-making effect, funds tend to flow into the SOL ecosystem. New projects, on-chain transactions, MEME, various playstyles quickly hype up the atmosphere. When the market is good, it often has more elasticity than BTC and more easily creates the illusion that "the bull market is really back."
But once liquidity tightens, SOL’s volatility won’t be gentle.
Because when people buy it, besides recognizing the public chain itself, they are also betting on the entire ecosystem remaining active. As soon as on-chain sentiment cools down, valuation and expectations may both retract.
So I don’t treat SOL as another BTC.
BTC is more like a base holding logic, while SOL is closer to a highly elastic bet on on-chain activity. Being optimistic about it can be because you believe users, developers, and funds will continue to gather; but if you only chase it because it rises fast, you will likely suffer a lot during corrections.
I myself am still willing to pay attention to SOL.
It has real use cases and strong market appeal. But the more imaginative an asset is, the more you can’t just focus on the imagination.
SOL can be very strong, but before holding it, it’s best to make sure your heart can keep up. $BTC $SOL #FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农 The U.S. labor market is starting to lose momentum — but it hasn’t broken. 🇺🇸 Weekly Jobless Claims: 206K vs 205K expected 📈 Continuing Claims: 1.779M ⚠️ ADP jobs: +38K vs +48K expected That combination matters. Hiring is cooling, which could give the Fed more room to stay less aggressive. But there’s a second side to this story. Fed Governor Waller has kept the door open to a September rate hold if inflation continues to cool — while hotter inflation could bring rate-hike risk back into the The ADP employment report was released last night, showing an increase of only 38,000 jobs, far below expectations. Theoretically, this should strengthen rate cut expectations and be positive for risk assets. However, the market did not follow through with a unilateral rise; instead, BTC and ETH showed a clear divergence in strength: BTC demonstrated more solid resilience against declines, while ETH, though more volatile, repeatedly surged only to quickly fall back. 📉
The tug-of-war behind this is intriguing. On one hand, cooling employment supports the expectation of easing; on the other, rising crude oil prices and renewed geopolitical conflicts reignite inflation concerns, limiting the decline in U.S. Treasury yields. These two forces acting simultaneously on the market make asset pricing hesitant.
From a capital perspective, $BTC is closer to a digital reserve asset, with institutional ETF funds providing it stronger support; meanwhile, $ETH, as a high-beta growth asset, benefits from easing expectations but is also prone to amplified fluctuations due to AI narrative-driven sentiment swings. 😌
The real point to watch next is whether the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield can form a sustained downward trend. Only with yields continuously falling can the current stabilization be considered solid. At the same time, beware of the "good news priced in" scenario—after news breaks, funds may push prices higher to take profits, which is often the most common trap in a choppy market.
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile, and the above analysis does not constitute investment advice. Please make decisions cautiously. $BTC $ETHVivek Ramaswamy's Asset Management firm Strive announced plans to purchase over 20,000 Bitcoin by the end of the year. If successfully executed, it will leapfrog a series of established institutions to become the second-largest publicly listed company holding Bitcoin globally. This is not an isolated bullish statement from a single institution, but reflects how the US stock capital circle is moving towards "Bitcoinizing corporate balance sheets," shifting from the risk-hedging behavior of individual geek companies to a standard allocation strategy for mainstream institutions. 1. What does 20,000 BTC mean? 20,000 BTC corresponds to nearly $1.5 to $2 billion in real cash buy orders. The current exchange-held BTC inventory is at a historic low, and the continuous absorption of 20,000 spot BTC will further drain the sell-side liquidity in on-exchange OTC (over-the-counter) and deep order books. Combined with daily accumulation from spot ETFs, such hard buy orders from corporate treasuries will directly raise the price support floor. Currently, aside from Strategy maintaining a clear lead, the second tier including miners like MARA, Riot, or tech companies like Tesla and Coinbase hold between 10,000 to 30,000 BTC. Once Strive completes its 20,000 BTC position by year-end, it will instantly reshape the corporate crypto holding landscape and create a strong demonstration effect. Introducing BTC into balance sheets and fund allocations essentially leverages Bitcoin toHonestly, the recent market situation is making people uneasy.
Since the US military expanded actions against Iran on September 1st, I've watched BTC plunge from above 79,000 down to 77,200, dropping 2.1% at one point. Direct clashes between the US and Iran pushed Brent crude above 90.5, and the 10-year US Treasury yield surged past 4.8%, turning the outside world into chaos.
What’s worse is that the threat of interest rate hikes still hangs over us. After Walsh spoke at Jackson Hole, the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 35% to over 60%. Most traders in the circle believe that even if employment slows, it won’t change the big picture of a September hike. If the nonfarm payroll data is strong, it’s basically a done deal.
Friday’s nonfarm payroll is the biggest variable this week. Although ADP data was weak, inflation is what the Fed cares about most. Even if nonfarm data looks bad, the door to rate hikes isn’t completely closed. Contracts on Polymarket also show a high probability of a hike. If the market really crashes, the 68,000 to 75,000 range is a support zone, but whether it holds is anyone’s guess.
Right now, we’re stuck between two pressures: geopolitical risks and rate hike expectations. Either one exploding is enough to cause serious trouble.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#FOMC前最后一组数据：本周五非农
#沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升
#Robinhood链放量，ARB收入叙事升温 $BTC is currently still fluctuating around $77,000, but rather than the short-term price, I am more focused on where the funds are flowing. 👀 In August, Bitcoin saw a strong rebound with a monthly increase of nearly 25%. The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of about $3.52 billion, marking the strongest single-month performance since 2026. However, entering September, some changes began to appear in the funding side. ETF fund flows have become volatile, and BTC has returned to the key fluctuation range of $75,000–$82,000. Meanwhile, the market is awaiting the US nonfarm payroll data this Friday and the FOMC meeting on September 16. More notably, Federal Reserve officials have recently signaled a cautious stance, and market expectations for the September policy path are rapidly changing. So the question now is no longer: "Can BTC rise?" but rather: "How much liquidity is left in the market willing to continue chasing BTC higher?" If ETF funds continue to flow in and macro liquidity improves, a BTC breakout above $82,000 could reopen upward potential. But if funds continue to cool down, while the dollar, yields, and policy expectations keep applying pressure, September may be more volatile than August. 📉 Key points to watch next: 🔹 US nonfarm payroll data 🔹 September FOMC policy signals 🔹 BTC ETF net inflows/outflows 🔹 US dollar and Treasury yields 🔹 The two key price zones at $75K and $82K Price is just the surface; liquidity is what matters The real issue with $CORE has never been the delay, but the rotten foundation beneath it.
Many are still fixated on the deposit delays and the sideways market, but these are merely superficial cover-ups.
By the time CORE reached this point, it was no longer a single accident but a complete exposure of structural vulnerabilities in the entire blockchain's underlying architecture.
The ecosystem is like a wound that will never heal. The protocol code has vulnerabilities, and flaws in the reward mechanism allow validators to excessively mint tokens. Although the project team urgently hard-forked to block subsequent loopholes, they cannot erase historical transactions, leaving a large amount of abnormally overissued tokens permanently in circulation.
Coupled with past loan defaults, contract errors, and the KLENG chain liquidation cascade, it proves:
This is not an accidental pitfall but an inherently fragile economic model and underlying design.
What disappoints veteran players the most is the team's PR tactics from start to finish.
With mechanisms out of control and governance in chaos, they blame everything on "malicious validators."
The token price plummeted from 6.9 to 0.01506, trapping countless investors at high levels. The official side never addresses the root problems, only continuously making empty promises to stabilize and divert attention.
Repeated deposit delays are not about so-called security maintenance.
They are deliberate delays to postpone massive sell pressure, forcibly stabilizing the market and prolonging the rally. The risk is merely deferred, never resolved.
The exchange quietly shutting down the coin deposit function is the most genuine warning signal; the risk has long since materialized.
Entering the market now is not bottom-fishing but catching a falling knife at a high point.
Sideways trading is an illusion, delays are a cover-up, and the glamorous ecosystem narrative cannot hide the deeply wounded underlying problems.I think the changes in TRON this time are more worth watching than the price of TRX itself.
In the past month, the USDT supply on the TRON chain increased by about $4 billion, reaching approximately $94.27 billion, surpassing Ethereum.
This is not simply about "which chain is stronger."
It's about stablecoins migrating.
TRON's biggest advantage has always been practical: low fees and convenient transfers, so a large amount of USDT is not used for DeFi but serves transfer and settlement functions.
In other words, people may not necessarily be buying TRON.
But they are using TRON.
These two concepts are very different.
If USDT continues to concentrate on TRON, it more likely indicates one thing:
The settlement layer of the crypto world is gradually shifting from "who has the strongest technology" to "who carries the most money." Dell's big bullish candlestick hasn't been fully digested yet, and Broadcom and Snowflake have just reported their earnings.
These two earnings reports point in the same direction—AI demand is spreading downstream from the hardware layer. Dell sells servers, Broadcom sells network chips, and Snowflake sells data cloud services. From computing power to data, the entire chain is growing.
The impact on the crypto space is twofold. The narrative is expanding; AI demand extending to servers and data clouds is an indirect positive for AI-related and DePIN projects in crypto. Risk appetite is stabilizing, the profitability quality of tech stocks is being continuously validated, and crypto, as a high-beta asset, will have its own narrative space as long as the macro environment doesn't collapse.
Here’s my take. Broadcom’s guidance missing expectations and the resulting sell-off indicate that the market’s pricing of AI has moved from "whether there is demand" to "whether the fulfillment speed is fast enough." Snowflake’s 21% rise shows that AI revenue on the software side is accelerating. For projects with real business support, the direction is clearer.
What do you think?
$BTC #30年期美债收益率连续41天站上5% Just glanced at the market, and it instantly gave me depression.
This morning, I lost on a short position in CAP, but I comforted myself: stop-loss is discipline.
But now looking back, from the position where I closed the trade, it plunged more than thirty points without hesitation. If I had held on, tonight would have been a different story.
Work cost me my profits, and today this saying really hit me hard.
The worst part isn’t missing out, it’s that I was clearly right.
I knew this wave was going to deflate, the direction was right, the trade was right, but I lost because I had to work during the day and couldn’t watch the market.
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports in August dropped to 3 million barrels per day, the lowest since records began in 2017. Is the Strait of Hormuz blocked?
No, the US Navy escorted 40 merchant ships through the strait, setting a wartime record for throughput. The real blockage is in the Red Sea, the route Saudi took to avoid the strait, which is currently being bombed by the Houthis.
Avoiding the wolf’s den, only to fall into the tiger’s lair.
This script is exactly like my day today: avoiding the small pit of stop-loss, but falling into the big pit of missing out.
With oil prices rising like this, inflation expectations are about to rise again, and the shadow of a September rate hike still looms. High-risk altcoins like CAP are the first to be thrown off the bus. CAP’s deflation this wave is no accident; it’s capital fleeing for safety.
Today I’ll remember one thing: being right but unable to act is the same as being wrong.
From now on, unless a trade absolutely must be closed, I won’t let work close it for me.
Is there anyone like me: right on direction, right on the trade, but ultimately losing to their own hands?
$BTC $ETH
#沙特原油出口跌至9年最低，油价飙升 BTC holding near $77.8K while ETH and SOL lag suggests a selective, cautious risk bid—not a broad crypto breakout.
With NFP and the FOMC ahead, macro still matters. Gold inflows and weak crude add to the defensive tone.
Until participation broadens, durability matters more than momentum. Strong balance sheets should stay preferred.
Just my view, not financial advice.
#LastNFPBeforeFOMC #AVGODipsSNOWPops #RobinhoodChainRevenue