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$BTC $ETH $SNDK 7月27号到8月2号 1638枚BTC 均价63957美元 套现1.04亿 一半付股息 一半回购优先股 听起来挺吓人对吧 但翻翻今年前七个月的数据 买了174895枚 卖了3620枚 卖出量不到买入量的零头 账本现在长这样 持仓842138枚BTC 平均成本75419美元 现价63000左右 浮亏大概17% 账面浮亏107亿 但这不是现金亏损 是公允价值会计规则造成的账面亏损 超过99%的亏损根本没卖 当初说永不卖币 现在被迫卖币 区别在哪 不是信仰变了 是STRC优先股跌到89块 面值100 12%的股息不能不付 卖币是最快的筹钱方式 所以公司从只买不卖变成了主动资本管理 核心目标不是囤币 是让STRC回100 这个价差一天不修复 大规模买入就回不来 这对BTC的影响 短期情绪利空 最大的多头开始卖了 光是这句话就够吓人了 但结构上基本面没变 40亿现金储备 84万枚BTC持仓 只要比特币价格不崩 这套体系就能继续转 真正该盯的是未来会不会继续卖 公司授权了最高50亿美金的减持额度 约78000枚BTC 占总持仓不到10% 额度大不大 其实不大 但方向ETH's 1,848 lifeline — broken and reclaimed.
Current price is 1,863, up 1.1% in 24 hours. Two days ago, on 8/2, I hit 1,824 and broke below 1,848. That day, I wrote 'Whether a fake breakout is a real breakdown depends on the opening on 8/3.' The answer is out—it's a false break. On 8/3, the US and Iran didn't start fighting, so Trump canceled the large-scale airstrike and switched to negotiations. ETH was pushed back above 1,848 and held steady at 1,863 today. 1,848 has turned from resistance back to support.
This false breakout contains a lot of information. On 8/2, I said "there are buyers below 1,824," and now it's confirmed — it's not retail investors buying, but institutions buying. WEEX data shows the 50-day moving average at 1,783, the price is still above, and the medium-term structure remains intact. To put it bluntly, the 1,824 needle hits the leveraged position, while the spot position doesn't move at all. This rapid pullback after a pin breakout actually strengthened support below 1,848—because the market is telling you with real money that someone is willing to buy below 1,824.
But don't rush to increase your holdings. The trend direction is still weak and oscillating, not a reversal. From 1,973 on July 27 to 1,863 now, it's dropped 110 dollars over eight days, a decline of 5.6%. The EMA5/10/20 moving averages are highly consolidated in the 1,870-1,890 range, which is a typical oscillation signal—short-term long-short costs are converging, and neither has a clear advantage. MACD is still a death cross, with negative bars shortening but not turning positive. RSI 51.97, slightly weak to neutral. These indicators tell me that ETH is now grinding in a box, not bottoming out and rebounding.
The pressure above the price is actually quite clear—1,872 was today's 24-hour high, and it pulled back after just a dip. Above 1,890, the most troublesome level: EMA5, EMA10, EMA20 are all stuck here. If it breaks above it, it's a bullish signal; if not, keep grinding. Above 1,890, there are 1,926 (near last week's high), 1,948 (SAR turning point), and 1,975 (the short-selling concentration zone on 7/27). Layer after layer pressed down, until one layer was broken, the next was in sight.
Below is 1,848—a recently confirmed false breakout bottom, now the first line of defense. Further down is 1,828, which is today's 24-hour low, then the 1,800 round number, 1,783 is the 50-day moving average (mid-term support line), and the lowest is 1,758, the July low.
Why didn't it crash after breaking 1,848 on 8/2? The core issue is that the U.S.-Iran has shifted from negotiations to negotiations. Trump canceled large-scale airstrikes on 8/1, switched to negotiations on 8/2-3, with the exact words "This is Iran's last chance," with the first phase opening the Strait of Hormuz and the second phase denuclearization. Iran claims it "hasn't talked with the US," but in reality, it is advancing navigation through the strait with Oman. Oil prices plunged directly—WTI fell 5.11% to $80, and Brent dropped 4.73% to $83.77. US stocks have risen for three consecutive days, and risk appetite is returning. The fear index rebounded from 17 to 25, still in the fear range but not as extreme as 8/2.
But don't get too happy too soon—there are still two things hanging around. One is that the probability of a rate hike in September is still at 65%, the 10-year US Treasury yield is 4.74%, and the 30-year yield has hit a 19-year high—oil prices have dropped, but the previous surge has already pushed inflation expectations higher. Whether they will fall depends on next month's PCE. The other is the CLARITY Act, which Polymarket has lowered its approval probability to 31%. Congress will recess on August 10, so it's highly likely there won't be time to review it. If this bill doesn't pass, it's bad for crypto.
That's how I personally think about positioning. There are long positions near 1,850. August 2 was the toughest day. Now the unrealized profit has returned at 1,863. Just lock in profits from 1,824 to 1,845. At 1,890, only half the take-profit is taken. After passing it, look at 1,926. The group that bottom-fished at 1,824-1,837 is the best position, with a floating profit of 26-39 dollars. Stop loss at 1,848, 1,890, halved position at 1,926, or hold onto the chance of a rebound after successful negotiations. Don't enter 1,863 if you have no position; the odds are bad—either wait for a pullback to 1,848-1,855 and try a long stop loss at 1,828, or wait for a breakout of 1,890 to step back and set a stop loss at 1,870. If you want to try shorting, placing a short position at 1,890 has better odds than chasing at 1,863. Stop loss at 1,905 targets 1,855, but the position exceeds 5%. Holding heavy positions in a volatile market is asking for death. Leverage of 2-3x is enough; ETH's current 24-hour volatility is only $45. Betting on high leverage in a volatile market is the fastest to die.
I personally held that half-position at 1,837 on 8/2, but now it's back to life, with a floating profit of 26 dollars. Honestly, the day it should have been held, but it was pure luck to carry it through—if the US really fought, 1,837 would be halfway up the mountain. This lesson is remembered: in the face of geopolitical black swans, technical support is just paper.
The most critical variable going forward remains the US and Iran. After successful negotiations, ETH surged to 1,890-1,926, even reaching 1,948. After the breakdown, ETH retested 1,848, and if 1,828 was broken, target 1,800. I bet negotiations will succeed because neither side can afford to fight—the US military will need four years to replenish its ammunition stockpiles, and Iran's economy can't hold on either. But gambling is gambling; you can't gamble on the position.
Do you think the 1,890 moving average cluster can be crossed this week? I bet it won't pass—the MACD is still stuck in a dead cross, and without big news, it won't break out directly. But if the U.S.-Iran officially ceasefires and Hormuz resumes, that would be a huge boost—1,900 is within reach. Are you planning to try shorting at 1,890, or wait for a breakout to chase the bulls?
#从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully $ETH 🛡️ XAUT/USDT (4H) – Safe-Haven Stability
📊 Trade Setup Details
* Pair / Timeframe: XAUT / USDT (4-Hour)
* Bias: 🟢 LONG / HEDGE
* Entry Zone: 4,025.00 – 4,045.00
* Stop Loss (SL): 3,985.00
🎯 Take Profit Targets
* TP1: 4,095.00
* TP2: 4,155.00
* TP3: 4,225.00
💡 Why This Setup:
Tokenized Gold stable near $4,041.5 (-0.07%) with $4.87M volume, continuing its tight holding range.
⚠️ Disclaimer: NFA – Educational purposes only.
#Crypto #XAUT #Gold #Trading #OKX The Fed itself looks like a split scene—what gives you the right to fire all your bullets at once?
A patient had a fever that hadn't subsided for five years—the inflation target of over 2% has been around for over five years. But heart rate is slowing, unemployment is 4.2%, and participation rate is the lowest since the pandemic.
Cooling down (collecting liquidity) will slow heart rate, strengthening (easing policies) will flare up again. This is the Federal Reserve in August 2026.
On July 29, the fifth round was held steady, 3.50%–3.75%. Real News isn't 'unchanged'—it's 9 to 3—three people need to add 25bp, and for the first time in 2016, three opposing votes have been gathered together. Wash himself said the meeting was like a "family argument."
Hawks (Hamak/Logan/Kashkari): Inflation has been stuck for over five years. Hamak says the longer it drags on, the higher the cost to pull back; Kashkari would rather gradually withdraw now than be forced to tighten later; Logan said fiercely—no restraints, just keep over-targeting. Logic: If you don't collect it now, the cost will be even greater.
Dove (Waller): Jobs are cool, layoff plans are piling up, and now adding it is like giving a shot in the shot to patients with slow heart rates.
What is the new chairman of Wash's position? Three sentences: Inflation is relatively high, target return to 2%, I am confident. But which path to take is another matter. Morgan Stanley calls it "clear goals, unclear paths"—in plain language: where to go, no way to know.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 5.23%, the highest since 2007. The market sets prices with feet. CME is betting on a 25bp increase in September, with a 67.2% probability, but only one person in the committee openly supports a cut. The market is betting on increases, internal debates over increases or declines, tell me how to set prices?
BTC has pulled back nearly half from its peak of 126,000, down about 28% year-to-date, and is now hovering at 63,000. High inflation → closing expectations→ risk assets declined; High inflation→ fiat gross → gold rose. Solving both ends of the same data is just a mess.
What Washh left was not direction, but chaos. STS Digital refers to the "new volatility mechanism"—repeatedly switching between down, stop, and increase.
Jackson Hole is coming in August, and the two CPI releases before September are coming. Even the Fed itself has no clear conclusions.
What gives you the right to fire all your bullets in one go?
Non-investment advice, DYOR#韩国杠杆ETF成交额降九成, the volatility narrowed
To get straight to the point: the previous surge and crash in Korean stock storage stocks was all driven by sentiment driven by leveraged funds; Now that leverage has been cut off and trading volume has been cut to the knees, the next price will truly approach the fundamentals. I have already cleared short-term speculative positions and am preparing to wait for stabilization to gradually take on long-term trades.
Let me share my own approach with this move:
Not long ago, when Hynix followed the Korean stock market in continuous sell-offs, I bought a long position at a low point. Later, I caught the 17-point surge on July 31, but before reaching the previous high, it flattened completely.
It's not that I'm pessimistic about the storage cycle, but I know very well that this rally wasn't triggered by sudden fundamental changes—it dropped 18% in three days and rose nearly 18% in a day. The industry's supply and demand can't be turned upside down in just one week. Essentially, it's a high-leverage market that first creates a deep pit with chain forced liquidations, then shorts cover + leveraged bottom-fishing to push the market up. The whole process is a capital game, with little to do with industry logic.
Now, regulators have directly raised the margin requirement for single-share leveraged ETFs to 30 million KRW, effectively blocking the high-leverage channel for retail investors. Trading volume has jumped from 12.4 trillion KRW to 1.24 trillion KRW, a 90% drop.
Once leveraged funds are withdrawn, it's like squeezing out all the "water" from the market. If prices rise again, it will be real institutional funds buying, supported by real demand; If it drops further, it truly means selling pressure hasn't been fully released and valuations haven't reached their proper level. No need to guess whether it's leveraged sell-offs or short squeezes to push prices higher; the trading logic is actually simpler.
Many people think that without leverage, there won't be a big market, but I actually think that's a good thing.
Previously, tokenized Hynix was even more volatile than altcoins, technical analysis basically failed, and holding positions was constantly on edge, unable to hold long-term positions. As volatility gradually narrows, the trend will increasingly align with the real cycle of the storage industry, making it more suitable to follow the big logic of AI and HBM, rather than chasing gains and selling losses every day.
Of course, don't rush to bottom-fish; during the process of deleveraging and liquidation, aftershocks are inevitable. Wait for the consolidation to last a week or two, and then make a move once the direction stabilizes—the profit-loss ratio is much more cost-effective.
Did you follow the fluctuations of the Korean stock market this time? Profited or Riding a Roller Coaster?
$SKHYNIX The price has bounced back, but I'm more interested in what the on-chain data and whales have been doing these past two days. $BTC has risen from just over 62,000 to 63,800. On the surface, it looks like the bulls have won, but if you take a look at the net flow on exchanges and the actions of large addresses, you'll find that much of the rebound is actually short squeezes in the derivatives market, not large spot purchases. The difference between these two determines whether this move is a "bottom" or just a "rebound": real spot accumulation with actual money gives the rebound legs; pure contract short squeezes will burn out and revert to the original state. So don't just be happy watching green candlesticks—asking "who is buying" is often more valuable than "how much it has risen." Those who understand, understand.#CLARITY法案剩72小时, the motion has not yet been submitted
The CLARITY Act has 72 hours left, and the odds are still dropping.
The Senate adjourned on August 10, which is the final window. Procedurally, if a motion to terminate the debate is submitted before August 5, there can be a procedural vote on August 7. But so far, the bill has neither appeared on the full House agenda nor has any motion been submitted. The Senate announced on Monday that the bill was not on the agenda at all, not even leaving a seat. Senator Lummis said he had been making room for the bill for weeks, but it didn't fit on the agenda, and nothing he said was helpful.
The vote gap hasn't been filled either. The bill requires 60 votes to break through a lengthy debate, with 53 Republican seats and at least 7 Democrats needed. Currently, only two Democratic senators openly support the bill, just five votes away. And there is no sign that anyone is about to defect.
Expectations have already collapsed. Polymarket's probability of passing the bill within the year dropped from 51% last week to around 31%, with a peak of 82% in February. The market is voting with its feet, and expectations are rapidly fading.
The impact of this incident on the crypto world isn't about "whether it will fall," but about "how much." One of the core logic behind Bitcoin's rebound since late June is the anticipation of the CLARITY Act passing. Now that the tide is expected to recede, this premium will be digested again. If the bill ultimately fails, short-term market sentiment will not look good.
The medium-term impact is even greater. At its core, the Act grants the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over the spot market for "digital goods," resolving long-standing qualitative disputes that have plagued the industry. Institutional funds have been waiting for this regulatory framework; if compliance paths are not cleared, Wall Street money will not flow in on a large scale.
My judgment is straightforward—this bill is basically out of the question this year. Even if a motion can be submitted before August 5, it will take time from the procedural vote to the final vote, which is far from sufficient. What passed the House with 294 votes may ultimately be stuck in the Senate's final 72 hours.
August 5th is the final submission deadline. After this deadline, if you want to push again, you'll have to wait until after the September selection.
What do you think?
$BTC $SNDK $ETH $BEAT this order
Turning the tables is too early
That short spot a few days ago
4.1172 in, 3.0391 out
Ate over a hundred U
Just finished leveling and still haven't caught a breath
Bought a long spot again at 3.1334
The current price is 2.87
Unrealized loss of 82%, lost 25U
Deposit is 28U
Plenty of money, and I can't keep my face at all
Looking back at the 15-minute chart
It has been falling all the way from 3.55
There wasn't even a decent rebound in between
I bought long on 3.13
It's like stepping on a falling elevator
Reach out and press the up button
A typical downward relay followed by a flying knife
Just made money from short positions on this coin
Turning around, I want to add more
It's not that there's a problem with the market
He was in a hurry to leave as soon as he left
The rhythm was still stuck in the momentum of the previous single
No replenishment, no desperate hold
Let the baseline be 2.70
If it breaks below the high volume level, it will be flat
If it can bounce back to around 3.0, it's also average
Don't waste time with it
$PUMP Walked pretty hard today
On the daily chart, there was a breakout with increased volume
Around 0.0022, just one step away from the previous high
But meme coins are too volatile
Chasing the high and entering can easily get stuck at the top
but did not pursue
$UB is steady on the move
The daily chart has shown a V-shaped reversal
MACD is a golden cross on the zero axis
0.16 is the support
Wait until the pullback doesn't break before reconsidering
If you don't give them a chance, just let them walk on their own
This BEAT
It's not a technical loss
The shortfall lies in the timing
Just finished short orders, haven't digested them yet
He hurriedly picked up a bite of his chopsticks
Choking
25U Buy a memory今日跟帖Q：你有固定的仓位管理规则吗？说说你的资金分配方式
有，都是亏出来的规矩。
以前哪懂什么仓位管理，上来就是梭。账户多少钱一笔全干进去，顶多分两笔。结果看对了方向，一个回调就给震出来了，手里没子弹补仓，干瞪眼看着后面拉。看错了更惨，直接套死，割了疼不割更疼。
后来我就立了个死规矩：永远不满仓，永远留后手。
现在我这么分的：
· 总资金切4块。 一份买$BTC $ETH当底仓，不怎么动，就当存钱。一份做波段，到了就进到了就出。一份空仓等机会，平时不动，暴跌了才有子弹打。剩一份是备用金，极端行情才用。
· 单笔不超过两成。 就算这笔亏光了，也就亏总资金的20%，能接受。
· 分批进分批出。 看好了先给一半，跌了再加另一半。止盈也一样，先出一半落袋，剩的让利润跑。涨了不慌，跌了有子弹，心里踏实。
总结就一句：永远别一把梭，留点后手，市场怎么走你都不怕。 踏空也比亏完强。
你们仓位咋管的？评论区一起唠唠。👇
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 !!️ Be alert to a pullback in US stocks! !️ Oil prices are rising 📈
$CL $BZ Reversal and upward trend
The response was that US stocks began to weaken
Yesterday, oil prices plunged
Today begins a reversal
Mainly due to geopolitical news reversals
The U.S. has released news of delaying strikes on Iran and promising negotiations
This led to a sharp drop in oil prices on Monday
However, Iranian officials have directly denied that negotiations are underway
This shows that the US-Iran conflict and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz have not truly been resolved
The market has reinstated the geopolitical risk premium
This has driven a rebound in oil prices
Inventory and demand expectations provide support
The market expects that U.S. crude oil inventories will most likely decline tonight
Summer demand for refining during the U.S. driving season is strong
This provides fundamental support for oil prices
The US dollar weakened slightly
Market expectations for Fed rate cuts are heating up
The US dollar edged back slightly
Crude oil priced in US dollars has become cheaper for buyers of other currencies
This provides buying support
Oil is strong, US stocks are weak, mainstream currencies are weak
It seems to have become a chain reaction
So be cautious:
US stocks opened high but closed low + AMD's earnings report delivered ahead of schedule
#从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully public
#财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale Is SpaceX safe just because it rose 6%?
Last night, $SPCX surged from around $105 to $116, finally closing at $114.53, up nearly 6%.
This bullish candle is strong, but I think it's still too early to call it a reversal.
Tonight is SpaceX's first quarterly report since going public, but the real challenge lies ahead: on August 6, up to 911.5 million old shares will become eligible for sale. Based on the current stock price, this corresponds to a market value of about $104.4 billion.
To be clear, the unlocking is not a new issuance, nor does it mean these shares will definitely be sold. It won't increase the total share capital out of thin air; what changes is the supply of tradable shares in the market.
Currently, SpaceX's float is about 640 million shares, and the shares to be unlocked exceed the current float. If all enter the market, the tradable supply could theoretically increase by about 142%. This is the biggest pressure after the earnings report.
SpaceX's financials are interesting.
In 2025, revenue is $18.674 billion, up 33.2% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA reached $6.584 billion, and operating cash flow was $6.785 billion. Looking at these alone, it doesn't seem like a poorly performing company.
But on the other hand, the net loss for the year was $4.937 billion. Adding up the data disclosed by the three business segments, capital expenditures in 2025 have already exceeded $20.7 billion.
The money is mainly burned on Starship, the Starlink satellite network, and AI data centers.
Among them, the connectivity business where Starlink operates is actually quite profitable: annual revenue of $11.387 billion, operating profit of $4.423 billion. The real drag is the AI business, with an operating loss of $6.355 billion in 2025.
So tonight, don't just focus on whether revenue beats expectations.
.
$SPCX
#财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 $SNDK $XRP is sitting at one of the most important support zones we've seen in months.
After a prolonged downtrend, price is now testing a major demand area where the market will likely decide its next big direction.
Personally, I think this is the kind of setup that deserves attention.
If buyers manage to defend this level and regain control, the first upside target could be around $2.70.
Should momentum continue to build, a move back toward the previous all-time high in the $3.50–$3.80 range becomes a realistic long-term scenario.
That said, support has to hold.
If this zone fails, the bullish thesis weakens significantly and sellers could regain full control.
The next move from here could shape XRP's trend for weeks, if not months.
What's your view—are we looking at the start of a real reversal, or just another bull trap? This is a deal that no one is watching, and not even a deal yet—it's an alarm.
The US and Japan have just made a rare move on the yen, and everyone is asking what this means for stocks. Meanwhile, $BTC sitting at 63,600 as if nothing had happened. The pace of talk of "unpacking" the borrowing deal has hit the markets before, and this time cryptocurrencies seem to be watching from the side only.
I'm not dealing with the size currently. If the yen story is going to actually blow something up in stocks, $BTC will feel it quickly—it always does. At the moment price action is calm, and that's the only thing I trust.
$BTC BTCBitcoin's short-term activity is already approaching its historical low.
Many people think this is a bad thing.
But historically, the opposite is often true.
Because a real bottom never forms when everyone is optimistic, but gradually emerges when everyone feels it's boring or unwilling to watch the market.
However, low activity among short-term holders does not mean the price will rise immediately.
Historically, in 2015, 2019, and even at the end of 2022, such indicators remained low for a long time.
The market can move sideways in the bottom area for several months, or even longer.
For the long term, this is a very noteworthy signal.
I strongly agree with one saying about this round of market adjustment:
Truly cheap assets often don't believe they're cheap when you buy them; When prices really are high, everyone actually thinks prices can go up. #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
In so many years in the crypto world, I have personally witnessed three complete bull-bear cycles. The most profound lesson I've learned over the years is that position management isn't a technical issue, but a matter of life and death. My position management rule is not to pursue overnight wealth, but to survive in extreme market conditions. My fund allocation system is a survival rule forged through countless marginal liquidations and missed out anxiety.
1. The three-body split of the capital pool
I split all my trading funds into three physically isolated accounts that are never interconnected.
1. Strategic Reserve Layer (40%) — Ballast Stone This portion is only allocated to BTC and ETH spot, using a dollar-cost averaging + large drop increase strategy, with an annualized target of only 15-20%. Its purpose is not to appreciate, but to ensure I have the capital to turn things around in any extreme market. After the FTX collapse in 2022, it was this funding that allowed me to calmly build a position at the bottom of $15,000 in BTC.
2 Tactical Execution Layer (35%) — Main Battlefield This is the core ammunition for daily trades. I strictly enforce the rule that a single investment risk exposure should not exceed 3% of total funds: for a $100,000 account, the maximum loss per transaction is kept within $3,000. The funds are split into 5-8 shares; when the trend is unclear, only one part is used for testing, and only after confirmation is gradually increased to 3-5 shares.
3 Mobile guerrilla layer (25%) — profit regeneration Only after the tactical layer generates profits does 30-50% of profits be allocated here. Specializes in capturing high-odds opportunities: panic bottom-fishing after black swan events, pyramid accumulation during trend acceleration periods, cross-exchange arbitrage windows. The original principal will never be deposited; once it is lost, it stops and no additional payments are made.
2. The breathing rhythm of dynamic positions
My position is not a static number, but a living entity that pulses with the pulse of the market.
1. Volatility Period—Hibernation Mode: When the market lacks direction, positions are compressed to less than 5%, or even completely empty. Frequent trading at this time is considered slow suicide. I'd rather miss a false breakout than make a real pullback.
2 Trend Germination Phase — Awakening Mode On the daily chart, structural breakout occurred, with trading volume expanding to over 1.5 times the 20-day average, initiating the first 2% test position. Set your stop-loss at 1-2% below the structure, and only make a move when the profit-loss ratio is at least 1:3.
3. Trend Acceleration Phase — Run Mode: The price moves strongly along the 5-day moving average, adding 1-2% of the position each time it breaks through a key resistance level, but the total position does not exceed 15%. At the same time, they continuously move their stop-losses up to above the cost price, allowing profits to run freely.
4 End of Trend—Convergence Pattern: Volume and price divergence, extreme sentiment (Fear and Greed Index >80), actively reduce positions by more than 50%. They don't aim to sell at the highest point, but only to sell with certainty.
3. Relativistic Reconstruction of Levers
The market commonly misunderstands leverage = risk. My formula is True Risk = Leverage Multiple × Margin Ratio × Volatility Expectations.
100x leverage with 0.5% margin, actual risk exposure of 0.5%, this is a light position; 5x leverage with 30% margin, 30% risk exposure—that's what heavy investment is. During the 2021 May 19 crash, I used 125x leverage with 0.3% margin to short the market, and ended up profitable, but broke out in a cold sweat—not because of strategy, but luck. High leverage is like a magnifying glass; magnifying returns exposes human weaknesses. From then on, I permanently banned leverage above 50x.
4. Three iron rules etched into the bone
1. Never add to losses or losses: This is the epitaph for those who have been forced to liquidate. In 2022, LUNA fell from $80 to $0.0001, and countless people fell on the path of bottom-fishing if it dropped further. My rule is that if the floating loss hits the preset stop-loss, exit in seconds, without asking the reason.
2. Black Swan Circuit Breaker: If a single-day loss exceeds 4% of total funds, a 48-hour forced lock-up occurs; Over 7%, closed for a week and wrote a 10,000-word review. Emotions are the biggest enemy of trading; the circuit breaker mechanism is a cooling-off period for yourself.
3. Monthly withdrawal system: If monthly profit exceeds 25%, 40% is forcibly withdrawn to the fiat account. Account numbers are vanity; bank card balances are freedom. In ten years, I have seen too much paper wealth; withdrawing money is the only real profit.
There is no eternity in the crypto world, only probabilities. My position management doesn't aim for instant wealth; I aim for calm orders no matter how wild the market gets. After ten years, my annualized returns haven't been high, far less than those experts who post hundredfold contract orders, but I'm still alive—and doing very well. Where the capital remains, the opportunity lies; When the principal is gone, the market is just someone else celebrating. The Fed's internal fracture becoming public record changes the calculus for risk assets. Three dissents for a hike signal the committee is no longer just cautious, it is divided, and divided central banks historically struggle to act decisively. That ambiguity is what crypto is quietly pricing in right now: not a cut, but a paralysis that keeps rates stable long enough to matter.
The modest green across BTC, ETH and SOL reflects this read, not conviction buying. With MSTR trimming 1,638 BTC and Amazon committing $50 billion to OpenAI in the same news cycle, attention is fragmented across macro, corporate treasury, and AI capex narratives. That kind of noise usually precedes a directional flush one way or the other. I would not chase this bounce.
Just my read, not advice.
#OKXOrbitFriends who rely on credit card cash advances and loan refinancing all understand the risks of U.S. Treasury bonds. Interest rate hikes worsen the risks of U.S. Treasuries.
Issuing new U.S. Treasuries to pay off old ones.
This is almost the same as what friends who rely on credit card cash advances and loan refinancing do.
Some friends might say the difference is that the U.S. government's creditworthiness is higher than ours.
However, the credit of U.S. Treasuries is not what it used to be.
Around 2004-2005, the Federal Reserve was clearly raising interest rates, but U.S. Treasury yields were actually falling. This is the Greenspan Conundrum in financial history, mainly caused by countries like Japan and China increasing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, which drove up bond prices and pushed yields down.
Currently, China, Japan, India, and even Saudi Arabia and Russia are significantly reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries.
If interest rates rise, the financing cost of U.S. Treasuries will increase, and the Treasury Department will have to issue more bonds to cover these higher costs.
On one hand, demand for U.S. Treasuries is decreasing; on the other hand, supply is increasing, further accelerating the decline in bond prices and the rise in yields, creating a vicious cycle.
This is why Brother Feng dares to bet that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates in September. #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 Xiao Han, is this the 'golden age' you mentioned?
Let's look at Korean stocks again.
Previously:
Continuous circuit breaking
The storage duo erupted
The golden age of Korean stocks
Later, there was one
and was executed by waist chopping on the finger
The finance minister issued a public apology
Bulk liquidation of accounts
The golden age ended far too quickly.
However, after this decline, the story has taken a turn: Wallstreetcn cited HSBC as raising a reverse question: have deposit stocks already fallen too much?
HSBC's conclusion is quite striking: Samsung Electronics is now priced in by the market as having no AI
· Through reverse projection, the current implied long-term profit at the current stock price is only 0.8 times the EPS for that year, and the implied compound EPS growth rate for years 3 to 9 has been pushed to a historic low of -35%.
To put it simply, the market assumes that even if the AI cycle ends, Samsung's profits won't return to this year's level, and the AI premium will be almost completely erased.
· The contrast is very sharp. TSMC, also part of the AI supply chain, still maintains an AI premium, while Korea's storage has been sold to the point of having no AI. HSBC believes SK Hynix's pricing is also overly pessimistic.
On the liquidity side, leveraged ETFs have been deleveraged and foreign investors have net sold $60 billion, but the most intense mechanical selling pressure may be nearing its end.
· The golden age ended too quickly, precisely because its rally relied too much on leverage and sentiment.
Now, being priced as AI-free is just a shift in sentiment.
Whether Korean stocks will rebound from oversold or fall into a value trap does not depend on the golden age slogans, but on the sole fundamental anchor of AI storage demand.
#韩国杠杆ETF成交额降九成, the volatility narrowed Losing 57 million on one side while buying BTC like crazy—what exactly is the Trump family up to?
Guys, yesterday there was news that completely confused me.
American Bitcoin (ABTC), a mining company under the Trump family, posted a net loss of $57.2 million in Q2, marking its third consecutive quarter of losses.
But the same earnings report shows that Bitcoin reserves increased from 7,021 to 8,002, a 14% increase in a single quarter.
Losing money and still buying desperately?
Even more surreal—on the same day, Trump Media (TMTG) transferred $165 million worth of Bitcoin to Crypto.com.
Although it was later clarified that "it wasn't sold, just a custodian was changed," on-chain data shows that after transferring out 2,628 BTC, only 4,261 BTC remained, just enough collateral for convertible bonds.
Same family, two companies, on the same day—one buying, one pressing.
Who should you tell me to trust?
Let's start with the American Bitcoin account.
How did the 57.2 million yuan loss come about?
$71.2 million is a "fair value impairment" of Bitcoin holdings—not a loss of real money, but a book loss recognized at market price.
What about the main mining business?
Q2 revenue was $67 million, with 932 BTC mined, setting a single-quarter record.
The mining cost per coin is about $36,500, while BTC currently costs $63,000—with a gross margin close to 50%.
CEO Mike Ho originally said: "Bitcoin is a growing capital asset, and we believe its long-term compounding will outperform our cost of capital."
To put it plainly: the losses are the numbers on paper, but the profits are real BTC. Losses on paper can be tolerated, but BTC cannot be stopped.
Now let's look at Trump's media.
$165 million worth of BTC transferred to Crypto.com.
Not for sale? Alright, I trust you.
But after transferring out 2,628 BTC, the remaining 4,261 BTC exactly equal the amount of collateral for the convertible bonds.
What does this mean?
Previously, BTC was "free holding," but now it has become "staked assets."
Staking carries the risk of liquidation—when BTC drops to a certain price, creditors have the right to close their positions.
One is buying more as prices fall, the other is collateralizing as prices fall.
One dad, two different ways to play.
Now, back to your most pressing question: Does this affect my judgment of BTC's short-term trend?
Today (August 4) in early Asian trading, BTC briefly approached $64,100, up about 2% from the previous day, reclaiming the 63,000 level lost on Monday.
But don't get too happy too soon.
BTC currently costs about $63,150, down approximately 45% from a year ago.
What about ABTC's stock price? It has dropped about 95% from its listing peak, and in July, it was forced to do a 1:15 reverse stock split to stay on Nasdaq.
Eric Trump himself holds 6% of shares, with his market value shrinking by over $600 million.
A company is losing 57 million on paper, and the founder personally loses 600 million—still buying.
Do you say this is faith or foolishness?
My judgment is simple:
In the short term, these two news events have limited direct impact on BTC prices. The market is more focused on macro and liquidity factors, not on the financial reports of a single mining company.
But in the medium to long term, ABTC's choice sends a clear signal:
Compared to a mining cost of $36,500, $63,000 worth of BTC is considered "bargain."
Eric Trump himself said, "Our advantage is that we don't buy at market price; our mining costs are about half of the market price." ”
Translation: Others buying BTC at 63,000 is speculation, but mine at 36,500 and it's profit.
Two Trump companies made the opposite moves on the same day—
ABTC is stockpiling, TMTG is holding back.
One tells you "BTC is bullish for the long term," the other tells you "I'll mortgage BTC first."
Which do you believe?
I believe in data.
ABTC's mining cost is 36,500, with a gross margin of 50%—as long as BTC doesn't fall below 40,000, the company can survive and grow bigger and bigger.
TMTG staked BTC—indicating they lack cash and need to borrow money.
One is the logic of producers, the other is the logic of consumers.
Are you a producer or a consumer?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #特朗普家族矿企亏损仍增持BTC US-Korea Storage Alliance: On the surface, it's cooperation, but in reality, it's a binding
Today, let's talk about the macro perspective. Samsung and SK Hynix going public in the US is a matter that most people think about more than they think.
Simply put, South Korea exchanged HBM capacity for US GPUs and computing power, and tried to avoid US dollars in settlements. On the surface, it looks like technical cooperation, but in essence, it's the same logic as K'Sante planting cotton back then—the resource provider is always the weaker party.
Calculations for the US: It has eased the pressure on dollar payments and provided a "physical anchor" for the AI bubble. When the bubble bursts, risks can be prioritized on the South Korean economy.
The cost to South Korea: securing long-term orders but losing technological sovereignty and equity control. The Samsung Lee family is gradually becoming professional managers, and national growth depends entirely on the capital spending of the American Seven Giants. The deeper the binding, the less initiative you have.
A key variable: The US and South Korea locking in high-end storage have instead opened up a market window for China's mid-range DRAM/NAND, forcing accelerated domestic substitution. Where the blockade line is, the breakthrough point is there.
Behind this is a colonial-style symbiosis led by the United States. South Korea is betting its national destiny, but whoever can maintain industrial autonomy will stay at the table.Sandi Falls is just around the corner!! Urgent analysis of current short-selling strategies!
Short position at 1324.87, current price 1288, floating profit of 36 points. The order is still profitable, but the profits have shrunk significantly.
Let's first look at the current market
On August 3, SanDisk closed at $1,288.03, up 6.03% that day, with a large intraday swing, with a low of 1,121.33 and a high of 1,316.44. On the daily chart, prices are still being pushed below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with short-term bears holding the advantage. The first short-term resistance is between $1360 and $1410, and the medium-term strong resistance is between $1560 and $1610. On the support side, 1180 to 1200 is the current dividing line between strength and weakness, while 998 is the trend lifeline.
Reason for holding a short position at 1324.87
Technically, 1288 is near the lower edge of the short-term resistance zone. The rebound quality is an oversold recovery, not a trend reversal. The moving average system is in a bearish alignment, with prices repeatedly contesting near the EMA10 but unable to effectively break above it.
On the news front, on August 4, SanDisk and SK Hynix jointly released the first HBF standard, which short-term stimulated a rebound in stock prices. However, technological advantages do not necessarily mean a fundamental reversal; the commercialization of HBF will still take time.
Earnings window: Q4 earnings will be released after market close on August 5, with very high market expectations (EPS $34.67, revenue $8.42 billion). High expectations mean extremely low margin for error. Once the financial report only meets expectations rather than exceeds them, the scenario of "buying expectations and selling facts" plays out.
The core reason for short selling
First, valuation bubbles. The 52-week low was $40.53, the high was $2,354.39, an increase of over 5700%. The TTM price-to-earnings ratio is over 42 times, which is considered a bubble in a strong cyclical industry.
Second, the risk of a cyclical peak. Citron was already short at the beginning of the year, with the core logic being that the market will be strong in cyclical NAND companies, pricing AI core assets, which is a clear mismatch.
Third, the competitive landscape has deteriorated. Samsung is entering the high-end SSD market with SanDisk cores with its most advanced chips. Forward supply-side pressure is accumulating.
Fourth, the chips are crowded. The turnover rate has long remained above 14%, making it a high-level competitive stock.
If you don't have short positions, where can you go short?
Do not pursue emptiness. When it rebounds to the 1300 to 1320 range, near the lower edge of the short-term resistance zone, observe if the 1-hour chart shows signs of shrinking volume and stagnation. Once the signal is confirmed, short entry. Stop loss above 1360, first target 1180 to 1200, second target 1120. Position control within 10% of total capital, with leverage not exceeding 3x.
If the price drops below 1250 with increased volume, you can take a light position to chase short positions, set a stop loss at 1280, and target 1180 to 1200.
How to handle short orders at 1324.87
Move the stop-loss up to 1320 to ensure that even if it is knocked out, profits remain. Take profit is divided into two batches: the first batch is 1200 to 1220, half even; The second batch of 1120 was completely flat. The price is fluctuating around 1288; if it doesn't break 1320, keep buying. Volume increased above 1320 and it held firm, cutting positions by half to protect profits. If it falls below 1250, the rebound is over. Add short positions, and set the overall stop loss at 1300.
Short selling profits from trending profits, while drawdowns are an inevitable cost of holding positions.
Think carefully. #韩国杠杆ETF成交额降九成, volatility narrowed by #SPCX首份财报将公布, $100 billion unlock imminent, #折旧年限延至25年 Microsoft lowered its capital expenditure guidance by $BTC $ETH $SNDKWith the US stock market and risk assets showing simultaneous strength, BTC and ETH have once again approached short-term resistance zones. However, the overall rise in altcoins is limited, and it is important to note that the driving force behind this rally is not broad liquidity spreading across the market, but rather selective supply and demand concentration in specific assets. What has already been reflected in the price, and what variables have not yet been introduced? Currently, the market is not a beta rally where not all coins rise. Assets driving price increases are limited to those with clear narratives, deep liquidity, and confirmed real demand. This structure differs from the "wave-riding" of past cycles, where funds concentrate in certain assets while the remaining stocks move sideways or undergo corrections due to lack of liquidity. The key lies in its derivative positioning. The futures basis for BTC and ETH has risen, but funding costs across all altcoins have not yet approached the overheated zone. This means that long positions are still concentrated in specific assets, and the conditions under which a short squeeze can occur are correspondingly limited. I believe Ethena's changes are not just for USDe holders to pay attention to; any RWA investor or stablecoin holder should be aware of them
Ethena USDe's underlying yield has undergone a major transformation, shifting from the previous "tariff arbitrage" to "multi-strategy comprehensive returns."
At the end of last month, Ethena's official ecosystem account explained ⬇️ this in detail
Previously, the core yield of USDe mainly came from Crypto Basis Trade, which in layman's language referred to basis arbitrage between spot and perpetual contracts, as well as funding rate arbitrage
The market generally equates Ethena with a protocol that makes a living off funding rates
But now, Crypto Basis is down to about 1%, and backing has become:
- DeFi Lending ≈ 39%
- Liquid Stables ≈ 37%
- RWA ≈ 13%
- Institutional Lending ≈ 10%
Revenue sources are diversified across DeFi lending, institutional lending, RWA, and so on
It is clear that USDe's revenue sources are now significantly less relevant to the crypto market cycle
I think this is a good thing. In the past, USDe was funded by taking money from crypto pools to feed holders. Although it played the role of arbitrageur and improved market efficiency, funds still circulated within the crypto circle
But now it's different: USDe draws from the global market's big pool, then feeds the returns back on-chain, and back into the crypto community
It's really a good thing, a huge good thing 👍, $ENA I'm Ci Ge, the once "buy-only, not sell" Bitcoin whale, now selling at a loss.
The event itself
On August 3, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) filed an 8-K filing with the SEC, selling a total of 1,638 Bitcoins from July 27 to August 2, cashing out $104.7 million, with an average price of $63,957. After the transaction, it still holds 842138 Bitcoins, accounting for 4% of the global total. The total holding cost is $75,419, with a paper loss of about $11,462 per coin.
Funding Direction: $52.4 million paid as preferred dividend, $52.3 million repurchased discounted STRC preferred shares. During the same period, it also sold over 3 million shares of MSTR common stock, raising $290 million. As of August 2, dollar reserves had reached $4 billion.
Why sell?
STRC is preferred stock issued by Strategy, with an annualized dividend of 12% and a par value of $100. A 12% dividend is a must. STRC is currently only worth $89 to $92, breaking below par value and breaking the positive cycle of "issuing preferred shares to buy BTC." If you don't sell coins, you can't afford dividends; if you can't pay dividends, preferred stocks will keep falling, and if prices keep falling, it's even harder to issue new shares for financing. This is a choice forced by the structure.
A bigger script
On June 29, Strategy officially launched the "Digital Credit Capital Framework," breaking the unwritten rule of "never sell." Authorized sales of up to $5 billion worth of Bitcoin are four times the $1.25 billion plan in early July. The uses are divided into three parts: 1.25 billion to supplement reserves, 1.76 billion yuan for dividends, and 2 billion yuan for stock buybacks. Michael Saylor said $5 billion is the upper limit, "but the total may ultimately be higher."
The company shifted from "buying only, not selling" to "active capital management." Bitcoin has transformed from a "faith asset" into a "liquidity tool."
Impact on BTC
In the short term, sentiment is bearish. The phrase "the biggest bulls have started selling" itself can scare the market. The lower the price, the more coins need to be sold to raise enough dollars—this is negative feedback. This time 1,638 coins were sold; next time it might be 2,000 pieces.
In the medium to long term, this precisely shows that large institutions need liquidity management. Strategy is not bearish on BTC; it is forced to sell by the 12% dividend. As long as STRC doesn't return to $100, they won't resume large-scale buying for a day. Now the 10% gap is the signal the entire market has been waiting for.
Against SanDisk short only
Strategy's coin selling itself does not directly impact the storage sector, but it confirms one thing: the largest holders of 840,000 BTC are systematically reducing their holdings. As a benchmark risk asset, Bitcoin's selling pressure carries over to the pricing of all crypto and tech assets. In a high interest rate environment, all high-beta products are facing pressure from tightening liquidity. Short positions at 1324.87 remain unchanged in this macro context.
The whale who once said they would never sell is now being forced to sell coins by their preferred stock structure. Understanding this shift is ten thousand times more important than worrying about selling 1,638 coins this time.
Ci Ge finished speaking. Think carefully. #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币, scale halved by $BTC $SNDK $ETH Pure handwritten copying, not AI
$ETH pulled back from around 1800 to 1860, it looks pretty strong in the short term, but the position hasn't kept up. Total market contract positions increased by only 0.48% over the past day, with active selling accounting for 54.46% in the past four hours; Prices have rebounded, but the relay funds are still hesitating.
What's worse is that it has failed to hold above 1900 several times before. Short-term indicators have already retreated from the oversold zone and are not overheated, but this is not evidence of strength. Don't rush first.
The front low is the defensive line, and the round number above is the re-inspection zone. If it rises above effectively, then look for a recovery; if it falls, it means this wave is just short covering. Data is as of 6:30 a.m. Beijing time on August 4. Let's wait and see the market to provide its own answers; this does not constitute investment advice.
#以太坊 #加密市场 #衍生品 #风险管理A bill blocking does not mean regulatory halts; let's first look at how the two lines work!
Don't misunderstand this news as "CLARITY Act is stuck, so $BTC will definitely drop." Bernstein offers a scenario assessment: if the bill continues to be blocked this year, short-term risk appetite may be further suppressed, putting pressure on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
But regulation is not limited to Congress. According to reports, the SEC and CFTC may rely on coordination mechanisms under the Project Crypto framework to accelerate rules on token classification, DeFi, self-custody, and token issuance exemptions. Executive rules can buffer emotions, but they are difficult to replace the long-term, cross-government certainty brought by congressional legislation. This is also why the bill carries greater significance for institutional infrastructure and the boundaries of securities and commodity regulation.
In practice, I break down information into three columns: bill text and agenda, SEC/CFTC official announcement, and analyst scenario simulation. First, see if the title has become an enforceable rule, then assess its impact on trading platforms, DeFi projects, and institutional participation. "Another leg lower" is just a downward scenario, not a price target.
Disclaimer: Information is only for information organization and logical review, and does not constitute any investment advice. The market carries risks; please conduct your own research.Strategy recently sold 1,638 BTC, with an average transaction price of $63,957, recovering $104.73 million. Compared to the previous round of 3,588 tokens, this is a 54.3% decrease, which is close to being "halved in scale."
But what's even more interesting about this deal is where the money ultimately goes.
Of the $104.73 million in token sales revenue, $52.4 million was used to pay preferred stock dividends and $52.3 million for STRC buybacks. During the same period, Strategy also sold 3.0114 million shares of MSTR common stock, raising $290.6 million, of which $250 million supplemented US dollar reserves, $28.9 million continued to repurchase STRC, and the remaining $11.7 million went into cash accounts.
The two financing channels brought back a total of $395.33 million, with total STRC buybacks reaching $81.2 million, and dollar reserves rising to $4 billion. This shows that Strategy's current funding priority has shifted from simply increasing BTC to maintaining preferred shares, cash reserves, and the stability of the entire financing system.
After the sale, the company still held 842138 BTC, with a cumulative purchase cost of $63.513 billion and an average cost of $75,419. The average selling price this time was 15.2% lower than the average cost of the entire position, so it cannot be directly equated with a single loss in specific accounting terms, but at least it shows it was not a high-level realization.
Based on BTC priced at about $63,482 around 17:11 Beijing time, the remaining market value of holdings is about $53.46 billion, roughly $10.05 billion lower than the cumulative purchase cost. Meanwhile, 1,638 coins account for only 0.195% of the current open interest, which is not significant for the spot supply itself.
The real change happens in Strategy's capital cycle: in the past, BTC was mainly bought by issuing shares and debt, but now BTC has begun to pay dividends, buy back securities, and supplement liquidity.
Next, the key to tracking is not just "how many coins sold," but also includes the dollar reserve coverage period, preferred dividend costs, and the dilution rate caused by weekly MSTR issuances. The reduction in token sales does not mean the sale is completely over; rather, it feels like gradually monetizing at a controlled pace.
#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币, scale halved Circle's biggest competitor right now may not be Tether.
Instead:
Everyone who wants to issue digital dollars.
Many people look at Circle and only see USDC.
But what truly deserves attention is that the stablecoin war is shifting from "who issues more coins" to "who controls the dollar's flow gateway."
Past:
Banks control payments.
Visa and Mastercard control the credit card network.
Now:
Stablecoins are trying to move the dollar onto the blockchain.
And what Circle wants to do is not just issue USDC.
It aims to be the infrastructure of the digital dollar era.
Here's the question:
Will the entry point for digital dollars really belong to Circle?
Currently, the biggest competitor in the market remains Tether.
Thanks to its earlier market layout, USDT holds a significant advantage in global crypto trading.
USDC's strengths lie in compliance, transparency, and institutional acceptance.
This is also why Coinbase, the Base ecosystem, and more financial institutions are more inclined to use USDC.
But the real competition in the future may become even fiercer.
Banks can issue their own stablecoins.
Payment giants can access on-chain dollars.
Tech companies may also launch their own digital payment networks.
In the future, automated transactions between AI agents may not require a single stablecoin as the sole option.
So the real issue with Circle is not this:
"Is there demand for USDC?"
The answer is already clear.
Instead:
Can the growing demand for USDC turn into an irreplaceable commercial barrier for Circle?
Because issuing stablecoins itself is not difficult.
The difficulty is:
Having users;
Possessing liquidity;
Having payment scenarios;
It has become the industry's default standard.
Visa's success is not just because it has payment technology.
More importantly, merchants and consumers worldwide are accustomed to using it.
The future of stablecoins is no different.
The winners won't just be the companies with the largest circulation.
Instead, it is the company that has become the default network for global digital dollars.
So when I look at Circle, I don't just look at USDC's market share.
I focus more on:
In the next 10 years, will the flow of dollars on the internet pass through Circle?
If the answer is:
Yes.
So today's market valuation may just be the beginning.
If the answer is:
No.
Then it might just be a financial company earning the spread.
The stablecoin war is only just beginning.
DYOR。 $CRCL 🚀 #Altseason 2026 💸
The bull market may have only just begun.
The next 6–12 months are likely to be the most critical phase of this crypto market cycle.
If historical patterns repeat themselves, as liquidity continues to return, the market is expected to usher in a new upward cycle.
Market Focus Targets:
🟠 $BTC → $250,000 🚀
🔵 $ETH → surpassed $10,000 🔥
🟡 $BNB → $💥 5,000
🟣 $SOL → $⚡ 1,000
⚪ $XRP → $10 🌊
With continuous capital rotation, high-quality altcoins and MEME coins are expected to see greater room for performance.
A truly big opportunity has never been chasing gains or cutting losses.
Instead, when the market is still full of doubts, you should position ahead and patiently wait for the trend to materialize.
⏳ Time is the best friend in a bull market; Patience is the greatest advantage.
The above content is for market opinion only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please be sure to conduct independent research (DYOR).
#Altseason #BullRun #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #DailyOrbit YOU ARE AN $SPCX HOLDER? GET READY FOR THIS
Today we'll see the first $SPCX earnings report ever
But forget the revenue number - it simply doesn't matter
Good earnings? - Insiders finally get to sell. The pop becomes your exit liquidity
Bad earnings? - Weakness plus a doubled float. A trapdoor
There is no clean path through this week
And that's just August 4
Two days later the first unlocks hit - and that's where it gets worse
Aug 11 - Aug 21 - Sep 9 - Sep 24 - Oct 9 - Oct 24 - Nov 7 - Dec 8
Every single date, more shares flood the market
A doubling float doesn't get bought. It gets absorbed. Slowly. Lower
This isn't just a correction - it's structural selling pressure that lasts for months
I've been warning about this for weeks
The trap isn't the earnings. The trap is what comes after
#DailyOrbit $BTC $ETH $SNDK ISM hits a four-year high and US Treasury Debt Declines: Who's lying?
In July, the ISM Manufacturing PMI surged to 55.6, a four-year high, and even the factory employment index returned to expansion territory for the first time. Logically, such strong recovery data should directly drive U.S. Treasury yields sky-high. Strangely, however, the 10-year Treasury yield actually fell, shrinking all the way back to around 4.70%.
Why did the U.S. Treasury market respond with rising (yield declines) in response to such strong economic data?
Because the bond market saw through the recent manufacturing boom.
If you carefully break down the PMI subcategories, you'll see that strong demand is mainly concentrated in two areas: one is AI infrastructure in the tech industry, and the other is companies choosing to "buy early" due to concerns about rising shipping costs caused by the Middle East situation. This boom is not endogenous expansion driven by consumer demand, but rather a defensive, concentrated, and explosive short-term behavior. So, when this wave of pre-order rushing recedes, what will be left behind?
What remains is the real economy, dragged down by high interest rates.
Even if the Fed chose to raise rates by 25 basis points in September under pressure from three votes against it, pushing restrictive rates higher, it would only accelerate the subsequent credit contraction. Long-term Treasury trading reflects the long-term economic outlook for the next 12 to 18 months. Its downside suggests that smart money would rather believe the short-term manufacturing PMI is an illusion than bet that the economy can hold up nearly 4% of the real benchmark rate for the long term. But is the bond market's pricing solely driven by pessimism about growth?
Actually, the funding structure is also at play.
The recent resurgence of unwinding risks from yen arbitrage trades, coupled with the decline in commodities like crude oil amid expectations of geopolitical conflicts, is prompting global long funds to realign major asset classes. Capital flowed out of high-risk equity assets, frantically entering long-term US Treasuries as a safe-haven defense, and this strong buying forcibly pushed yields down.
So, between hot data and a calm bond market, I choose to trust the bond market unconditionally.
Those who rush to short US Treasuries and buy commodities when PMI hits a four-year high are very likely to fall into the bull trap. My position is still gradually building long-term bonds. At the end of the macro cycle, the bond market's perspective is always deeper than macro data.
Of course, if next week's nonfarm payroll data shows explosive growth, proving that factory hiring is not a defensive replenishment but a genuine trend of expansion, then my "false fire theory" will fail. At that time, I will close half of my long bond market positions. Until then, I chose to side with the bond market.
#ISM创四年新高, U.S. Treasury yields have reversed YOU ARE AN $SPCX HOLDER? GET READY FOR THIS
Today we'll see the first $SPCX earnings report ever
But forget the revenue number - it simply doesn't matter
Good earnings? - Insiders finally get to sell. The pop becomes your exit liquidity
Bad earnings? - Weakness plus a doubled float. A trapdoor
There is no clean path through this week
And that's just August 4
Two days later the first unlocks hit - and that's where it gets worse
Aug 11 - Aug 21 - Sep 9 - Sep 24 - Oct 9 - Oct 24 - Nov 7 - Dec 8
Every single date, more shares flood the market
A doubling float doesn't get bought. It gets absorbed. Slowly. Lower
This isn't just a correction - it's structural selling pressure that lasts for months
I've been warning about this for weeks
The trap isn't the earnings. The trap is what comes after
#DailyOrbit $BTC $ETH $SNDK #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 MSTR最新披露减持1638枚BTC，套现约1.05亿美元，对比上月单次3588枚抛售，本次卖出规模近乎腰斩。本次成交均价63957美元，远低于公司7.54万美元的平均持仓成本，属于亏损套现。资金主要用于支付高息优先股股息、补充美元流动性，是董事会50亿美元卖币框架下的常规财务操作，并非看空比特币长期价值。
此前MSTR长期坚持“只囤不卖”，如今常态化卖币彻底打破市场固有信仰，短期压制加密市场情绪。虽然本次抛售体量缩减，实际抛压有所缓和，但机构持续减持的预期仍在，市场担忧若币价持续走弱，公司需要卖出更多BTC覆盖固定分红，形成币价下跌、被迫卖币的负向循环。$BTC $ETH $SNDK
中长期来看，公司总持仓仍超84万枚，依旧是全球最大企业持币方，减持仅占总持仓极小比例。短线BTC易受机构卖盘情绪扰动震荡，后续重点关注MSTR后续抛售节奏与美股风险偏好变化。#特朗普家族矿企亏损仍增持BTC
Trump Family Mining Company ABTC: Buying More as You Lose? After three consecutive quarters of losses, the stock price plunged 95%, yet insiders quietly increased their holdings
Guys, American Bitcoin (ABTC), the Trump family's mining company, just delivered a "booming" second-quarter report card—a net loss of $57.15 million, marking the third consecutive quarter of losses.
But strangely, the more you lose, the more you buy, and the more you buy, the more you lose—the drama plays out again.
Let's start with the data—how bad is it?
Although ABTC's Q2 revenue slightly increased to $67.01 million, it could not withstand a 45% year-on-year drop in Bitcoin's price, with its holdings shrinking significantly. Even worse, the stock price dropped about 95% from its listing peak, and in July, it was forced into a 1:15 reverse stock split just to barely maintain its Nasdaq listing qualification.
Eric Trump was still stubborn on the call, saying, "Bitcoin never goes straight, our beliefs haven't changed."
Saying it's a loss, but being honest with the body
On the surface, it was a loss, but its holdings never stopped. As of June 30, ABTC held about 8,000 BTC, a 14% increase month-on-month, setting a record of 932 BTC mined in a single quarter.
Even more intriguing, during the window period after the financial report was disclosed, the two directors immediately increased their holdings by about 1.63 million shares, with an average price of just $1.
Anyone who knows this "company losses, insiders bottom-fishing" strategy is well understood.
What is the truth?
Forbes previously exposed its underwear: this company claims "mining costs are half the market price," but 70% of its Bitcoin is obtained by issuing additional shares, not by mining. Insider Eric's personal wealth increased by about $90 million from this move, while ordinary investors who chased the stock lost about $500 million in total.
Simply put, this is an arbitrage game that relies on Trump's IP to hype valuations, cash out at high prices to buy coins, and stack retail investors' money into holdings.
Summary
Currently, ABTC is a typical example of "trading brand for liquidity, using losses to hold positions." Token prices fall, mining losses; The coin price has risen, possibly a breakeven out. But consecutive losses + joint stock to save life indicate significant cash flow pressure.
Retail investors rushed in to gamble on the Trump concept rebound, but don't forget—this company has only two full-time employees, and the rest is all stories.
What do you think? Should they increase their positions through faith, or stay away from this "family game"?$SKHY Short-term institutions are buying insurance, while long-term funds have not given up on bullish sentiment.
1/ Close range defense is very heavy. On August 7, put OI was close to 4.8 times Call, and on August 21, it was about 3.4 times. Institutions are clearly guarding against high volatility and failed rebounds in the coming weeks.
2/ But far-end structures tend to be more common. Call OI will be clearly dominant in September, December, and January 2027. Especially in January 2027, calls increased by about 10,699 copies, while puts only increased by about 248 copies.
This is not like being completely bearish, but more like holding a long-term long position while buying puts to protect short-term risk.
3/ On the main selling side, institutions bought a $135 put for October and sold a $180 call. Protect the risk below $135, while being willing to continue holding near $180.
4/ The biggest short-term problem is negative gamma.
$141 is the Put Wall, $145 is the Dealer acceleration bit, and $160 is the Call Wall.
A break below $141 may accelerate toward $135. Only by holding above $145–$150 will there be a chance to recover toward $160.
The long-term logic remains, but short-term insurance is heavy. The rebound test before $150 is still validated; $160 is the next real resistance. [Crypto Scenario]
#亚马逊市值破3万亿, a 50 billion bet to win the first round
I'm Script Bro. Amazon's surpassing $3 trillion looks like a rise in US tech stocks, but for BTC, the real impact lies in changes in market risk appetite.
Currently, BTC has rebounded from around 62,200 and regained around 63,500, forming a certain resonance with the recovery of US tech stocks. In the short term, market sentiment is recovering, with the main focus on the resistance zone between 64,000 and 65,000.
Then, the three major U.S. stock indices all strengthened today, with the Nasdaq up more than 2% and the S&P 500 up nearly 1.5%. At the same time, sentiment in tech stocks has clearly warmed up, and AI-related sectors have become active again. This signal indicates that funds have not completely withdrawn from risk assets but are waiting for a new direction.
Gold is currently basically fluctuating at high levels without further sharp gains, indicating that market risk aversion has cooled. Crude oil actually rose, with WTI returning to around $82, mainly influenced by geopolitical factors and supply expectations. Simply put, the market is no longer simply in a safe-haven mode, but is trading in improving economic expectations and liquidity recovery.
This environment is actually quite friendly for BTC.
Looking at Bitcoin's trend, it hit a low near 62,200 before quickly rebounding, now back above 63,500. From the market perspective, this rebound is not purely driven by sentiment but resonates with external markets.
The rise in US stocks indicates that risk appetite is returning, and the ceaseless rally in gold indicates that the pressure on safe-haven funds is easing. The rise in crude oil also signals that the market is starting to resume trading and economic activity is recovering.
That's why BTC can quickly recover from its low levels.
Technically, BTC is still in a phase of volatile recovery. Short-term support has formed near 62,200, with the focus on the 64,000-65,000 area above. If it can break through 65,000 with increased volume, market sentiment will improve further, and there will be opportunities to continue challenging higher levels in the future.
But Script Brother reminds everyone: don't blindly chase long stocks just because the external market rises.
The biggest variable now is still the Fed's policy expectations. If expectations for rate cuts continue to heat up and liquidity improves, US tech stocks and BTC may continue to benefit. However, if inflation data fluctuates and the market resumes trading high interest rates, short-term volatility will persist.
So the core logic of this rally is simple:
US stocks focus on AI and tech capital returning, gold on risk aversion, crude oil on geopolitical changes, and BTC on global liquidity.
Script Brother believes the market is currently slowly recovering from the panic phase. As long as BTC holds near 62,000, the trend hasn't broken for now. The key next is whether the 64,000-65,000 level can be broken. Only after a breakout can the market truly open up. $BTC $BICO $SOL #亚马逊市值破3万亿, a 50 billion bet to win the first round
Amazon's market value has surpassed 3 trillion, making it the fifth largest in the US market. Monday's intraday high was $287.16, up more than 5%, closing at $284. The key point is that this bullish candlestick wasn't forced by news—last week's earnings report already revealed their cards: AWS revenue reached 42.2 billion, up 37% year-over-year, the fastest in 18 quarters. Annualized revenue reached 169 billion yuan, with a backlog of 496 billion yuan. AI-related chips and cloud business also achieved annualized revenue of over 25 billion yuan.
It took just over two years to go from 2 trillion to 3 trillion, three times faster than the six years from 1 trillion to 2 trillion. The shortened time frame indicates that the market is pricing this round of AI narratives at an accelerated pace, not fundamentals.
And the 50 billion transfer to OpenAI is even more worth pondering than its market value itself.
On July 31, Amazon disclosed in its 10-Q report that the entire $50 billion had been secured, with a stake of about 5%. The agreement signed in February this year originally stated that OpenAI would only trigger the remaining 35 billion after completing its IPO or AGI breakthrough. Neither of these conditions has materialized, and the money has already been credited.
Why earlier? In April, OpenAI renegotiated its cloud contract with Microsoft, breaking Microsoft's near-exclusive control. AWS can finally legitimately supply computing power to OpenAI. As soon as the contract was changed, Amazon immediately sent the money. In exchange, OpenAI promised to spend $100 billion on AWS over the next eight years, and to run 2 gigawatts of computing power on Amazon's self-developed Trainium chip. 50 billion out, 100 billion returned—the accounts were very clear.
What's even more interesting is that Amazon is one of the largest investors in OpenAI and Anthropic—it pledged $33 billion to Anthropic, of which $18 billion was actually delivered. The world's two leading AI labs are both listed among AWS customers.
Roth Capital says Amazon is "the hyperscale company with the highest return on AI capital investment." That makes sense. Microsoft boosted its stock price by cutting capital expenditure guidance, while Amazon supported its valuation with AWS's 37% growth rate and 496 billion in backlogged orders. If both directions can rise, it means the market is now watching "whether spending money yields returns"—if it does, it will give you a premium; If not, then punish you.
The next step is to see whether AWS can turn the $496 billion backlog into real revenue and cash flow, and whether the two major investments OpenAI and Anthropic can continue to drive Trainium chip adoption. The direction is fine; the rhythm is the most critical thing going forward.#从降息到加息, Fed Divisions Are Fully Public. What really deserves attention in the market is not whether the Fed has taken action this time, but that internal consensus is changing.
A few months ago, the core of market discussion was "how many more interest rate cuts can be made this year"; Nowadays, more and more officials are discussing whether another rate hike is needed. At the latest policy meeting, three members even supported a rate hike, which is a rare public disagreement within the government in recent years, indicating that policymakers' judgments on inflation are no longer in agreement.
Many people like to simply attribute the market to "interest rate cuts are good news, rate hikes are negative," but what the market truly trades is never the interest rates themselves, but changes in expectations.
If the market has already priced in rate cuts in advance, then what will truly affect asset prices may actually be a resurgence of rate hike expectations. As funds begin to reprice future liquidity, volatility in high-valuation assets, growth sectors, and the crypto market will be significantly amplified.
For traders, it's more important to watch for three signals than to guess the next meeting:
* Whether inflation will rebound again;
* Whether supply-side pressures such as oil prices and tariffs continue to push prices higher;
* Whether the market is beginning to reprice a higher, longer-lasting interest rate environment.
My understanding is that the biggest risk in the market is not a rate hike, but rather that the market is still pricing in according to the "rate cut logic."
While most people are still immersed in easing expectations, truly smart money often begins preparing for another possibility.
Trading is never about predicting the future, but about being the first to read the choice of funds when expectations change.$BTC 💡 Idea of the Day
Extreme Fear at 25 (↓3) persists, but today’s **liquidations** flip the script: 91% shorts vs 9% longs — a massive **short squeeze** (bear trap), not retail capitulation. Total flows are modest at $18.4M.
Similar setups on May 30 and July 14, with FNG 22–23 and 91% short liquidations, preceded local bounces.
For traders: squeezing shorts can extend toward `64
📊 Key levels:
• BTC: $63,000 / $64,000
• ETH: $1,800 / $1,900
DYOR | Not financial advice
#Dailyorbit$BTC $ETH $SNDK #特朗普家族矿企亏损仍增持BTC
Losing $57.15 million, stock price down 95%, is Trump's son still adding BTC to 8,000 coins? Is this a belief or a trap? Net loss of $57.15 million in the second quarter, marking three consecutive quarters of losses; Revenue of 67.01 million seems decent, but it can't withstand the downward drop in BTC-denominated assets.
But guess what—
American Bitcoin (ABTC) held Bitcoin but instead rose, reaching about 8,002 BTC, a quarter-on-quarter increase of +14%. 932 were dug out in a single season, setting a record.
Eric Trump's exact words: "Unwavering confidence, long-term building the leading Bitcoin giant in the U.S. "In July, the company's stock price plunged about 95% from its peak, forcing a 1:15 reverse stock split to protect the list.
On one hand, he's losing money, he's increasing his position, and on the other, he's splitting his shares—
Doesn't this scene resemble those miners in 2022 who "refused to sell" by their stubbornness? I think it's just three layers of logic:
1. Mining companies become wealthy banks: ABTC essentially operates with a dual approach of "mining + coin buying"—if the token price drops, it may lose money, but the coins themselves accumulate more and more;
2. Counter-human manipulation: peers switching AI computing power to earn stable cash flow, but it refuses to sell, betting on cycle reversals;
3. Family IP premium: Trump's name itself is traffic, and the money-losing news actually saves him on marketing costs.
To put it simply:
Wall Street tends to flee when looking at earnings, while in crypto, people follow based on faith. But ordinary people shouldn't just jump in just because "Trump has increased his holdings"—if he can withstand stock splits and unrealized losses, can you withstand contract liquidations?
Personal views and do not constitute investment advice. The most expensive term at the bottom of the cycle is called "hold," and the cheapest term is "leverage."Is SpaceX safe just because it rose 6%?
Last night, $SPCX surged from around $105 to $116, finally closing at $114.53, up nearly 6%.
This bullish candle is strong, but I think it's still too early to call it a reversal.
Tonight is SpaceX's first quarterly report since going public, but the real challenge lies ahead: on August 6, up to 911.5 million old shares will become eligible for sale. Based on the current stock price, this corresponds to a market value of about $104.4 billion.
To be clear, the unlocking is not a new issuance, nor does it mean these shares will definitely be sold. It won't increase the total share capital out of thin air; what changes is the supply of tradable shares in the market.
Currently, SpaceX's float is about 640 million shares, and the shares to be unlocked exceed the current float. If all enter the market, the tradable supply could theoretically increase by about 142%. This is the biggest pressure after the earnings report.
SpaceX's financials are interesting.
In 2025, revenue is $18.674 billion, up 33.2% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA reached $6.584 billion, and operating cash flow was $6.785 billion. Looking at these alone, it doesn't seem like a poorly performing company.
But on the other hand, the net loss for the year was $4.937 billion. Adding up the data disclosed by the three business segments, capital expenditures in 2025 have already exceeded $20.7 billion.
The money is mainly burned on Starship, the Starlink satellite network, and AI data centers.
Among them, the connectivity business where Starlink operates is actually quite profitable: annual revenue of $11.387 billion, operating profit of $4.423 billion. The real drag is the AI business, with an operating loss of $6.355 billion in 2025.
So tonight, don't just focus on whether revenue beats expectations.
More importantly, watch whether Starlink's profits can continue to grow, whether the burn rate of AI and Starship slows down, and whether management
What do you think?
$SPCX
#财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 #dailyorbit#ISMBeatYieldsFall #KoreaETFVolDown90 Five financial reports, five types of risk: Don't just focus on EPS, look at growth quality—risk or opportunity?
Core Viewpoints
NVIDIA: Strongest earnings quality. Q1 revenue was $81.6 billion, up 85% year-on-year, with data centers accounting for 92%. The Q2 consensus is basically close to the company's $91 billion guidance, with the real catalysts being the Q3 guidance, Rubin/Blackwell supply, and gross margin. NVIDIA earnings report
AMD: Focus on share realization. Q1 data center revenue was $5.775 billion, up 57%; Q2 expected revenue of $11.3 billion and EPS of $1.61. Simply meeting the guidance is not enough; MI350, EPYC shares, and Q3 guidance are needed to continue exceeding expectations. AMD's financial report
SanDisk: Has the highest profit elasticity and the highest expectations threshold. Q3 revenue grew 97% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 78.4%; Market expectations have already exceeded the upper bound of the company's Q4 guidance, representing a typical case of high prosperity, high expectations, and high volatility trading. SanDisk financial report
Circle: Essentially, it's a multiplication problem between interest rates and USDC size. USDC circulating supply reached $77 billion, up 28%, but the reserve return rate has dropped to 3.5%. The key question is whether USDC's expansion can outpace the yield declines brought by rate cuts. Circle 10-Q
SpaceX: The highest risk of the incident. The market expects revenue of about $6.8 billion, with a loss of $0.23–0.29 per share. Starlink is a pillar of profit, but AI and Starship continue to burn cash, and with 911.5 million shares unlocked immediately after the earnings report, supply pressure may exceed quarterly expectations. SpaceX earnings report
One-sentence positioning:
NVDA looks at quality | AMD on market share | SNDK on cycles | CRCL on interest rates | SPCX on cash flow and unlocked. #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, Circle is the grand finale $BTC #$ETH $BTC 💡 Market Idea of the DaExtreme Fear remains elevated at 25 (↓3), but today’s liquidation data tells a different story. With 91% of liquidations coming from shorts and only 9% from longs, this looks more like a potential short squeeze than a retail panic sell-off.
Total liquidation volume remains relatively low at $18.4M, suggesting this move is more about positioning than a full market flush.
Similar conditions were seen on May 30 and July
14, when Fear & Greed levels were around 22–23 and short liquidations reached similar levels. Both instances were followed by short-term rebounds.
For traders: if shorts continue getting squeezed, momentum could push higher toward the $64K area.
📊 Key Levels: • $BTC : $63,000 / $64,000
• $ETH : $1,800 / $1,900
DYOR | Not financial advice.Many people in the market say Bit's bullish structure isn't broken. I thought about it and won't argue, just smile it off. But not many people can predict the turning point. Many people die during the transition between bulls and bears. Back when the 60,000-82,800 level was down, 82,800 fell back to 78,500, then rebounded back to 81,000. At that time, I thought the bullish structure hadn't broken down. But later, I was really scared, really scared.$BTC rejected the previous weekly low and left equals.
Currently price is rejecting the 64K level, which is an important momentum level for this week.
Now we rejected the 62.3K PWL, in terms of direction the market is indecisive.
We engineered lots of liquidity at those lows obviously, and the grinding highs above are also stacked with liquidity.
What do I do in certain conditions? I simply wait.
I'm still in my shorts, and those 62.3K equals are still a target, but we all know price can leave liquidity for later.
The 64K momentum line is important for me, and there is one short-scenario I'm eyeing.
If we sweep internal liquidity around 64.5K and get a strong bearish rejection, I'm shorting it again.
The short is still interesting because open interest shows that this pump is mainly driven by shorts closing.
If price pushes above 64K and consolidates + new buy/longs stepping in, I'm sitting on my hands.
Those who follow me know that 68.1K is a HTF target on Bitcoin for me, and strength above 64K could result in more momentum into the highs.
For longs I simply cannot execute here per my system.$BTC #BigTechEarningsWatch $SPCX has retraced nearly half from its peak, with 34% of the initial circulating supply already held by short positions. On August 6, a share unlocking event will release 1.5 times the current circulating supply. The restructuring of holdings combined with expectations of Q2 losses is squeezing short-term capital risk appetite. If results confirm that rocket launches and AI operations continue to burn cash, the massive unlocking volume could significantly amplify downward pressure. Only a short squeeze or major shareholders opting for long-term lock-up can disrupt the current selling pressure logic. Close attention should be paid to the actual turnover after the unlocking.
#美日确认联合购汇 #亚马逊市值破3万亿，500亿押注先赢一局 #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩What the market fears most right now is not a drop in Bitcoin, but that global funds are becoming increasingly conservative.
Bitcoin has dropped to around $63,600, and many have begun to worry whether the bear market will deepen further. But I think this wave of pressure still comes more from the macro market than from the crypto industry itself.
The United States and Japan have rarely intervened in the yen, raising market concerns about carry trade unwinding. As long as global capital begins to deleverage, risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies will also come under pressure, making it difficult for BTC to strengthen on its own.
However, on the other hand, there are also some positive signals.
Bhutan's GMC did not choose to sell its 10,000 BTC, but instead planned to use professional institutions for income management to generate cash flow from dormant Bitcoin. This shows that more and more institutions are treating BTC as a long-term allocation asset, rather than simply waiting for a rally to sell.
Meanwhile, a Bitcoin wallet that had been dormant for 13 years suddenly transferred BTC worth $31 million, and several ancient addresses have recently awakened. Every time such news startles the market, historically, many old wallets have only transferred custody or adjusted assets, which does not necessarily mean immediate selling.
In a bear market, any negative news is magnified, and any good news is ignored—this is the norm in the market. What truly deserves attention is that institutions are still laying groundwork, the state is still holding, and old coins are starting to circulate—these changes all indicate that Bitcoin's ecosystem is still developing.
Now, do you think this bear market is nearing its end, or does it still take more time to ground up the bottom?$UB This coin has no spot market and no real token trading; everything is margin betting. The market is dominated by USDT battles between bulls and bears, without the "spot dump" weapon.
1. Who decides the price?
- Latest transaction price: Entirely determined by the contract order book's buy and sell orders. As long as the dealer takes the sell order, the price can keep pushing up, repeatedly hitting new highs, with very slight pullbacks.
- Mark price (determines liquidation): Here's the trouble—it can't find an external spot index, so the exchange algorithm can only use the contract's own average order price as the marking price.
It is equivalent to: the contract transaction price rises→ the mark price rises accordingly, with no external spot constraints to restrain it.
Common coins: No matter how crazy the contract is, spot prices will pull it back; Pure contract coins have no anchor; the contract itself is the anchor.
2. Can a whale who opens a short sell sell?
It's hard to break through, and the situation is even worse than regular small coins with spot assets
1. Bear whales only have contract short positions; there is no spot selling available, and there is no real token selling pressure.
2. To push the price down, whales can only place large sell orders at the contract order window.
However, the market depth is extremely thin, and the market maker has ample USDT funds to directly take all short sell orders.
No matter how many short positions you place to suppress the market, the market makers take it all and execute it. Not only does the price not fall, it keeps rising.
3. The biggest nightmare for bears: closed loop of squeezed liquidation
The price continues to rise→ triggering strong liquidation due to large short positions;
Forced liquidation means the system buys and closes positions at the market price, turning it into an active buying order;
This wave of forced buying continues to push prices higher, resulting in more short positions and forming a cyclical rise.
In a market with only contracts, short liquidation itself acts as fuel for the sell-off. The larger the short position, the more willing the market makers are to push higher.
3. So how do the dealers take profits? How can you cash out profits without spot stock?
Key point: No spot trading, the market maker doesn't earn tokens, but directly earns USDT from the counterparty's trade.
Regular coin dealers: push up the spot price, sell coins to exchange for U and exit.
Pure contract coin makers do not take the path of "selling coins." The process is:
1. Early on, taking sell orders and continuously pushing prices higher, luring a large number of retail investors to short the market; Funding rates remain positive for a long time, continuously eating short rates.
2. Market open interest (OI) is very high, with ample funds for long-short battles.
3. Two ways to complete the harvest:
- Method A: Instant dumping: The dealer closes their long position at market price in one go, then smashes a huge sell order onto the order book, blowing up the bulls and harvesting the margin of the bulls.
- Method B: Swinging back and forth with pins, using high leverage to liquidate both long and short sides, taking liquidation funds and fees.
⚠️ Key point: For this coin, market makers don't need to "slowly sell" or wait for retail investors to take over spot shares. As long as the total contract position is large enough, you can dump and harvest at any time. A crash happens without warning and may not necessarily show a large bearish candle or a high volume or other traditional peaking signals.
4. The only condition for a bear whale to beat the bookmaker
Only by meeting one of these requirements does you have a chance to win:
1. The volume of USDT funds from the bear whale > the big money from the big players, who keep placing large sell orders. If the big players can't bear the pressure and can't withstand the selling pressure, the price will be pushed down.
2. Market sentiment reverses; no one wants to continue chasing long, no new buy orders enter, and the market makers have no competitors to push prices up. This would become very, very absurd
In the last cycle, 90% of retail investors were smart traders exiting liquidity, because centralized exchanges only listed meme coins after billions of dollars in market cap, and the listed infrastructure was constantly down from launch, lacking easy-to-use mobile apps
In this cycle, we will see retail investors gain the ability to buy any on-chain trend with one click, crossing any blockchain in less than a minute
In the history of cryptocurrency, there has never been a period when retail investors could so easily speculate on low-cap coins at extremely low friction costs
Moreover, we have centralized exchanges that miss out on massive trading volumes and are more likely to list tokens in the future. In my view, this is evident from how Coinbase natively integrates the Coinbase wallet into the exchange, even allowing people to instantly buy newly issued tokens
Meme coin trading volume will attract retail traders, but also builders, because open blockchains are the best place for smart developers to gain instant liquidity for their ideas, especially with AI tools like Fable and other tools. I'm very optimistic about tokenization and innovative applications
Tokens like $Bonk that can control and accumulate attention throughout the bull market will yield huge returns
On-chain supercycles🚨 The market no longer rises and falls in tandem; it begins to openly select winners.
This round of reversals has made the true strong narrative of the crypto world crystal clear. Many altcoins are still bleeding and weakening, but smart money is becoming more selective—only flowing to those with real fundamentals and a market