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#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩
让微策略笑死了，泰勒之前说的要做钻石手，只买不卖，上次采访说的只是你们不要买，并不是说微策略不卖，从哪开始，就开始卖币还股息。
我记得微策略成本均价应该是七万多，现在在六万多卖，应该是被逼无奈，如果手里现金流充足的话，我相信泰勒也不会割肉，毕竟在十万之上有大把的获利出逃的机会，他都没有卖。
虽然这次卖的数量不多，但预期冲击远大于实际抛压，多头信心持续承压。现在只求不要大额的卖，毕竟微策略手里还是有八十多万枚比特币，希望他能够挺住，挺住的话，下一波牛市会给他带来极大的收益，如果挺不住，微策略就是最大的黑天鹅！#EarningsObserver: AMD and SpaceX Reports Imminent, Circle Closes the Show
I'm Cige, tonight marks a critical night in earnings season. AMD and SpaceX report on the same day, Palantir has already set an example with 93% revenue growth and a 12% after-hours gain. Now let's see if these two can replicate the same script.
AMD, a major test for AI chip quality
AMD reports after market close tonight, with expected revenue of $11.3 billion, up 47% year-over-year. The core question is the shipment quality and gross margin level of the AI chip MI300 series. With Nvidia's H200 and B200 backlog piling up, whether AMD can carve out a bigger market share in AI chips will directly determine its stock price direction. Palantir has already validated that AI demand is materializing; if AMD can signal accelerated AI chip revenue, the entire AI hardware chain will be repriced.
SpaceX, the real test comes after the earnings
SpaceX will release its first earnings report since going public after market close the same day. The profitability and revenue growth of Starlink are the market focus. But the real test comes after the report: starting August 6, about 911.5 million shares will be unlocked, worth over $100 billion at recent prices. The founder's shares are locked until 2027, but selling pressure from early investors and employees is real. Whether the earnings can provide a clear profitability path for Starlink will determine if the unlocked shares can be absorbed.
Impact on BTC
Palantir's beat has already helped repair AI-related sentiment. If AMD also delivers a strong report, tech stocks will continue to rebound, and BTC, as a high-beta asset, will benefit in sync. If AMD falls short, sentiment in the AI hardware chain will be suppressed, and BTC will face short-term pressure. SpaceX's unlocking itself has no direct impact on BTC but will transmit through overall tech stock sentiment. Optical communication and storage sectors have already led a rebound recently; AMD's earnings will be the next catalyst.
What to watch next
Palantir's 93% growth confirms accelerating AI demand; the market now looks to see if AMD can deliver the same signal. If AMD's data is strong, the storage sector short squeeze will continue. If it misses expectations, there will be short-term profit-taking, but the fundamental AI demand remains unchanged. The earnings season logic is clear: beats lead to rises, meets lead to stability, misses lead to declines.
That's all from Cige. Ponder it carefully. #EarningsObserver: AMD and SpaceX Reports Imminent, Circle Closes the Show $BTC $ETH $SNDK #从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully public
Fed bulls and bears torn apart! Before the CPI was implemented, it firmly rebounded high
My approach: Before the new round of CPI data is confirmed to cool down, all rebounds are just sentiment corrections. The main strategy is to firmly rally high and not prematurely gamble for rate cut reversals.
Recently, the Fed has been playing out a "left-right battle" internally, with policy perspectives extremely divided.
Not long ago, the market was frantically speculating on rate cut expectations, but now a group of officials have turned the tables and poured cold water on the situation.
The hawkish faction took a tough stance: Logan, Hamak, and Kashkari collectively stated that inflation is highly sticky, and the timing for policy adjustments is not yet ripe, with a tendency to maintain or even continue raising rates;
Waller alone took a dovish stance, worried about continued weakening employment and took the lead in supporting a slight rate cut in September.
On one hand, it is fiercely fighting inflation; on the other, it worries about economic weakness. The Fed's dual mission has led to two opposing market logics.
Most importantly: Walsh never painted empty promises or made early decisions; whether to raise or cut rates in September will be left entirely to the final review of the next two rounds of CPI data.
This has led to the biggest feature of the current market:
It's all just verbal emotion, with no real action.
It's exactly the same as the previous verbal intervention tactic for the yen: shouting to disrupt the market but failing to change the real trend.
All the officials' hawks and pigeons switched back and forth, all of which were short-term noise.
Today hawks are dumping, tomorrow doves support the bottom; the market is repeatedly rollercoaster, and heavy positions betting on one side are harvested.
There is only one real turning point in the market: real inflation and a sustained decline.
Before there is no written data confirming the cooling down, all rate cut expectations are just market speculation.
So my strategy is very simple:
No CPI implementation, no trend reversal; the entire process was dominated by rebounds and high-level trends
Do you prefer a rate hike or a cut in September? $BTC $ETH On July 29, the Federal Reserve held steady for the fifth consecutive time.
But the real news isn't "no rate hike"—it's 9 votes in favor and 3 against.
Three regional Fed chairs—Logan, Hamack, and Kashkali—directly voted against rate hikes.
Wash himself admitted that the meeting discussions "felt like a real family argument."
This is not a disagreement. This is an open split.
🔴 Four key names
🐦 Dovish: Waller — the only one publicly calling for rate cuts. He said the job market could deteriorate rapidly, and at the September meeting, he supported a 25 basis point rate cut.
🦅 Hawks: Logan, Hamak, Kashkari—the three who just voted against raising interest rates.
Hamack said inflation has exceeded 2% for more than five years. Logan said, "A moderate short-term rate hike can reduce the likelihood of being forced to tighten tightly in the future." Kashkari said that gradual rate hikes are far better than passively waiting and ultimately being forced to take drastic action.
⚖️ Referee: Wash—No picking sides, only looking at stats. He said only three things: inflation remains high, the goal is to bring inflation back to 2%, and he is confident about this. As for how to achieve this? No explanation.
📊 Two data points that determine fate
Wash's explanation is very clear—whether to raise rates in September will be decided by two reports: July CPI + August CPI.
The July CPI has already been released—up 1.8% year-on-year, 0.3% month-on-month, and energy prices jumped 1.3% in a single month. Core CPI was 3.1% year-on-year.
This is not cooling. It's sticky.
If August exceeds expectations again—Walsh may directly shift to a more aggressive rate hike in September.
📉 One market collective misjudgment
CME data shows the market currently pricing in a 67.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September.
Probability of rate cuts? 0% 。
However, there are already clear calls for rate cuts within the FOMC.
On one hand, the market is fully pricing in rate hikes; on the other, some within the committee are calling for cuts.
The gap between spectrum and pricing = the largest expected spread opportunity.
💎 My strategy:
Don't bet on direction, bet on fluctuations.
Two CPI release dates, preparing for both directions.
At the Jackson Hole annual meeting on August 27-29, Walsh may provide real policy clues for the first time.
Before that—keep your ammo stocked, don't fill your slot.
The market now feels like a taut string. A 67% chance of a rate hike, 3 opposing votes, 1 person calling for a rate cut, and 2 CPI reports yet to be released.
Whoever lets go first will be the first to hurt.
$BTC $ETH $XAU #从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully revealed I like playing with banker coins because without a banker space, the space isn't very large, whether it's level one or two. Some people ask me how to find a banker, so let me briefly explain
Level 2
My approach is to record each initiated coin with the demon coin, the trading techniques and the rally space. Once it's confirmed to be a market rally, you can continue to observe. Whether you prefer sustained rally or a quick surge, when the next round comes, you can compare it with the table to see which ones haven't started yet. See the chart below 👇
Level 1
Every new public chain that wants to launch is not necessarily made up entirely of retail investors. If the front row is full of retail investors, it's hard to become a leader
Regarding front-row bundling for single projects, I like this type the most. However, I've heard that other chains have a lot of scams like this, but on BSC, it's usually not happening. Front-row bundling is very high, and usually you want to keep pushing up. You have to rush to buy and boost volume, which comes with costs. Few are prepared for this just to scam you out of a few hundred U. So when I see this, I usually put a bit in. The last round was during the USD1 market, and there were many of these scams. I almost never lost money, but I also can't add too much position.#从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully public
🔥 The Fed is in turmoil, with the market spinning from rate cut expectations to fear of rate hikes
Guys, lately, the macroeconomic industry has really tasted bad.
Just a few months ago, the market was pricing in two or three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, with some even betting on a 100 basis point cut within the year. In the blink of an eye, as soon as the minutes of the July FOMC meeting were released, three regional Fed chairs directly voted against raising rates. Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh came out to speak, sounding dovish on the surface, but on closer inspection, he was hawkish—downplaying the decline in monthly inflation, firmly holding onto the 2% target, and even starting to plan balance sheet reduction.
The market was stunned on the spot: What happened to the promised rate cut? Why is there suddenly a rate hike?
How extreme are the differences? A dot plot can depict five types of life
Let me first take a look at how divided the Fed is right now.
At the July FOMC meeting, interest rates remained unchanged (3.5%-3.75%), but the vote was 9 to 3, with three members openly opposing and calling for continued rate hikes. This is the largest opposition since 2025. Richmond Fed President Barkin later stepped forward to smooth things over, saying he was "unsure if he would vote for rate hikes like those three," but added, "There is currently no tight labor market in the U.S."
This sounds contradictory—if labor is not tight, it usually means the economy is cooling down, so interest rates should be cut, right? But Balkin's attitude was: I'm not sure. Even he himself wavers.
Even more crucial is Federal Reserve Chairman Wash. The market interpreted his early August speech as a "dovish loose signal," but Huitong Net's interpretation directly contradicted him: Wash's heavy hawkish signal. He deliberately downplayed the positive news of a decline in June inflation, emphasizing that the 2% target was not met, and retained the dual tightening options of rate hikes and balance sheet reduction. In plain terms—don't get hyped just because inflation has dropped a little; a rate hike at the September meeting is not impossible.
So now, the Fed is basically divided into three camps:
- Hawks: Inflation is not completely dead, but the stickiness of services inflation remains. Middle East situations are pushing oil prices higher, so tightening must continue. Representative figures: the three members who voted against and Walsh (outwardly neutral but actually hawkish).
- Wait-and-see faction: The data is too chaotic, making it hard to see the direction, so hold your position for now. Representative figure: Balkin.
- Dovish faction: The job market is weakening, and high interest rates have already hurt small and medium-sized enterprises and consumer spending. It's time to cut rates to support the economy. But now, the voices of this faction have clearly been suppressed.
Why is it so arguing? Because the data itself is "fighting"
Federal Reserve officials aren't deliberately contradicting; it's economic data that truly drives people apart.
On the inflation side: Although core PCE has retreated from its highs, services inflation (healthcare, education, housing rent) remains highly sticky, still above 3% year-on-year. The June PCE data did cool down, but Wash bluntly said, "Single-month data does not represent the trend." What's even more troublesome is that the situation in the Middle East is recurring, oil prices are pushing up again, and the risk of imported inflation remains unresolved.
On employment: Nonfarm payrolls have missed expectations for several consecutive months, temporary employment is declining, and there are signs of rising unemployment. On the other hand, average hourly earnings growth remains at 3.7%-4.1%, far above the level corresponding to the 2% inflation target. This left officials conflicted—employment had slowed, but wages were rising, and the "wage-price" spiral hadn't broken.
External variable: How exactly does Trump's tariff policy affect inflation? In the short term, this may be digested, but in the medium to long term, will core commodity prices be pushed higher? No one can say for sure. After Powell stepped down in May, Wash took over, and the new chairman's style became more hawkish, which also changed the FOMC's power structure.
So the current situation is: sticky inflation, weakening employment, rampant external risks, and the new chairman leaning hawkish. Do you think we should raise rates or cut them? If it were you, you'd be conflicted too.
What does this mean for the crypto world and risk assets?
The Fed's public divergence has not caused the market the biggest damage from "rate hikes" or "rate cuts," but rather chaotic expectations.
Previously, the market unanimously expected interest rate cuts in 2026, prompting funds to position in risk assets in advance, with BTC, US stocks, and gold all rising. Now, suddenly someone is calling for rate hikes, breaking the entire logical chain. You can see that the US dollar index has been rebounding recently, with the 10-year US Treasury yield hovering around 4.1%, refusing to fall. Gold, though still at high levels, has noticeably increased volatility.
For the crypto world, liquidity expectations are the lifeline. If the Fed shifts from a "rate-cutting cycle" to "raising rates again," or even just "pauses for longer," risk asset valuations will need to be repriced. BTC's gains so far this year have largely been built on the narrative of "liquidity easing." Once this narrative loosens, the pressure to pull back will not be small.
But on the other hand, this divergence also creates volatility opportunities. Before the September meeting, there are still two nonfarm payrolls and two CPI releases to be released, and each data release triggers renewed market bets on "rate hikes vs. rate cuts." For experienced swing traders, this high-volatility environment is actually a chance to make money—provided you can keep up with the pace and don't be proven wrong by the data.
My judgment: September is highly likely to hold steady, but the market will scare itself
To be honest, I think the probability of the Fed actually raising rates in September is low, but the combination of "no rate cuts + hawkish stance" is highly likely.
The reason is simple: the job market is indeed cooling down, and raising rates at this time could push the economy directly into recession. Even if Walsh leans hawkish, he wouldn't dare take that risk. But inflation hasn't reached the target, so it's even less likely he'll cut rates. So the safest choice is to keep interest rates unchanged while verbally taking a hawkish stance, keeping the option for future rate hikes.
This kind of "holding the ground but intimidating the market" is a short-term negative for crypto—liquidity expectations are suppressed, and funds tend to be cautious. But in the medium term, as long as employment data continues to weaken, the Fed will ultimately move toward easing—though the timing has been delayed.
Strategically, for the next two months, it is recommended to keep positions light and maintain high mobility. Before the September meeting, any news about nonfarms, CPI, or oil prices will amplify volatility. Don't bet heavily on the data for direction; if the Fed itself hasn't figured it out, we shouldn't figure it out either. Once the September meeting is held and the direction is clear, then decide whether to chase or run.
The above are purely personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Brothers, what do you think the Fed will do in September? Place your bet in the comments.#Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13%
Palantir's earnings report is worth a closer look for people in the crypto space.
The stock price fell 29% this year, with the market listing all the bearish reasons—valuation too high, slowing growth, uncertainty in government contracts. But once the earnings came out, all the short-seller logic was overturned by the data.
Revenue hit 1.94 billion, a year-over-year surge of 93%. U.S. commercial revenue was 764 million, up 149%. U.S. government revenue grew 90%. The stock rose 13% after hours.
The real value of this isn’t in Palantir itself, but in how it validates a core proposition—that demand for AI applications is real and accelerating.
Microsoft has already answered the infrastructure layer question of “Can AI make money?” with its cloud revenue. Palantir, through real purchases from government and enterprise clients, answers the same question for the application layer. When the application layer starts buying at scale, the entire industry chain’s closed loop is truly running.
For the crypto world, this means the AI narrative is shifting from a “hardware arms race” to an “application landing phase.” Purely speculative projects will be eliminated, and projects that can truly land and generate revenue will start to receive premiums. The market will no longer pay for “possible futures” but will price based on “how much can be earned now.”
My view is straightforward: Palantir’s earnings validate a trend—AI is moving from “burning money telling stories” to “making money validating logic.”
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH $SOL Fundamental Research Report $INJ / Injective (Public Chain/L1) $3.20
To put it plainly: Injective ($INJ) overall score 59/100, rating narrative over practicality. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token capture has been implemented.
Let's look at the projects first: Injective (token $INJ), public chain/L1 sector. Focusing on dedicated financial chains and CosmWasm. Benchmarked against ETH and SOL. Traditional collaboration between enterprises relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation, which causes gas surges, TPS constraints, and frequent cross-chain bridge security incidents during high concurrency. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (attributed to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $2.00M, token holders buy back and burn at an annualized rate, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/Collateral/Service Access). Comparing with peers (unified standards, no cross-sector random comparisons): In terms of circulating market cap, Injective $3.00B, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. For FDV, Injective $4.20B, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, Injective $2.00M, ETH undisclosed, SOL undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Injective has not disclosed, ETH has not been disclosed, SOL has not been disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. To wrap up: solid fundamentals (rating 59/100). Token value capture has been implemented (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Potential pitfalls: short-term large-scale unlock and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue reverting to zero, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives are cut off, usage collapses). Ongoing monitoring: protocol fee cycles, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. Data is sourced from public sources and is for reference only, not constituting investment advice. If the indicator deviation exceeds 30%, a reassessment is required.
Once the fundamentals are dismantled, how the market moves is another matter.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbit瞄准镜里，那栋数据中心的轮廓缩水了十五分之一。不是目标变小了——是我的标尺被人拨过一档。
微软把折旧年限从十五年拉长到二十五年，又把一队融资租赁的弹药车划归经营租赁的后勤序列。账面上，二〇二六财年的资本开支指引从一千九百亿降到一千七百五十亿。这手法干净得像战地伪装网的重新挂载：炮位没动，纹理换了。剔除掉这两个会计动作，军火订单一张未撤——一百五十亿从资产负债表的正面消失，转移进脚注里那个没人多看一眼的角落。少的是纸面上的恐慌，不是美元。
融资租赁原本是把弹药车绑进资产负债表，让所有人在车顶看到炮管——我在这里，我在扩张。转成经营租赁后，同一辆车被划归后勤分队，登记为油料和过路费，战车清单上不再出现它的名字。资产表少了辆坦克，目标阵地上多了颗一模一样的炮弹。战争还是那场战争，报表已经不是那份报表。
测距仪不会骗人。第四季度资本开支加上融资租赁，真实火力四百一十亿，同比暴涨六成九。这头猛兽的爪子不是收回来了，而是在以每年七成的速度变粗。真正被修改的不是弹药量，是弹道表。折旧年限拉到二十五年，等于把子弹的动能损耗摊薄到更长的飞行时间——每年账面的消耗变得轻盈，但命中目标的时刻被推迟到地平线以外。
华尔街的那排估值模型同时吐出一口气：看，巨头收手了。他们看见的是撤退的烟尘，我却看见阵地上反向延长的交通壕。战线没有后退，只是战报上的数字被调过。更危险的是“二十五年”这个刻度：一整代投资者从入市到离场，都未必能等来这发子弹的回声。微软等于自己承认，人工智能军备的回收周期，已经超出任何一种激进仓位配置的忍耐极限。
隔壁Google的枪栓刚压下四百亿的Anthropic赌注。盘面上那只Token标的正随着微软的账面魔术微微抬头——市场把标尺拨动当成整个阵营的弹药储备后移。这恰恰是最致命的误判：连微软都需要靠拉长折旧年限来掩饰弹药支出，那么Google那笔赌注的回本钟摆，又要荡到哪个年代？更长的弹道意味着更长的暴露——风向变了，敌人比你更早看见弹道上的闪光。
子弹还在飞。而它的主人，已经不在射击位置上了。SanDisk, from a 60% plunge, to a 26% rebound, and then today's surge and pullback, Lao Mo explains what to do for those who are trapped and those who are in short positions
Brothers, look at the data.
SanDisk staged a stunning comeback yesterday. It opened at 1159.84, hit an intraday low of 1121.27, then surged violently, reaching a high of 1316.45 and closing at 1288.03, with a daily fluctuation of over 17% and a closing gain of 6.03%. After hours, it continued to rise slightly by 0.2% to around 1290.59.
But looking at the candlestick chart for a longer period—July 10 was still near 1807, dropped to 1354 on July 17, hit a low of 1411 on July 24, and hit a low of 1187 on July 31. From the high of 1807 on July 10 to yesterday's low of 1121, it has dropped nearly 38%. If you start from the historical high of 2354 in June, the maximum drawdown exceeds 52%.
Let's first look at the technical aspects and clarify the current situation.
On the 4-hour level, the middle Bollinger Band is at 1238, the upper band at 1308, and the lower band at 1168. The price of 1291 is trading near the upper band at 1308, which is in a strong zone but close to overbought. The SAR turn signal 1135 has been left far behind, confirming the trend from bearish to bullish. SuperTrend 1132 has formed support below, shifting from resistance to support.
MACD fast line at 13.46, slow at 4.46, and energy bar at 18.00—after a golden cross above the zero axis, the bullish momentum remains. But note that the energy column may already show signs of slowing compared to yesterday, as it has risen 17% in one day.
Key levels: First resistance above 1308-1316; a breakout at 1350-1404; first support below 1238-1250; a break at 1200-1214, further down to 1168-1187.
Fundamentals are the biggest variable for this vote.
After the market closed on Wednesday, August 5, SanDisk released its Q4 and full-year financial reports for fiscal year 2026.
What does the market expect? Revenue ranged from $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion, with a median value of $8 billion, up 34% quarter-on-quarter and over 320% year-on-year. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $30-33, compared to $0.29 in the same period last year. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be 79%-81%. Analysts generally expect even higher forecasts—revenue of about $8.42 billion, earnings per share of about $34.67.
Goldman Sachs directly raised its target price from $1,200 to $2,200, reiterating its "buy" rating. Bernstein's target price is $3,000, and Bank of America's target price is $2,500.
The company has signed five long-term supply contracts, and in fiscal year 2027, it will cover more than one-third of NAND shipments. The combined minimum revenue from these three long-term contracts is about $42 billion.
But Old Mo wants to remind you of a few things.
First, expectations are already running high. Wall Street expects $8.42 billion in revenue and $34.67 in EPS. If the earnings report only "meets expectations" rather than "significantly beats expectations," the stock price might actually fall—buying expectations and selling facts.
Second, the storage sector as a whole is still under pressure. Even after Samsung Electronics' performance skyrocketed, it was still smashed. Whether SanDisk can break out of its own market is uncertain.
Third, yesterday's 17% amplitude already moved some earnings expectations ahead of time. From 1121 to 1316, a rebound of nearly 200 points, those chasing in are already betting that the earnings will exceed expectations.
Lao Mo said a few words to brothers in both situations.
If you have a long order with a quilt set (cost is 1350-1400 or above):
Congratulations on weathering the darkest moment. Yesterday, it jumped from 1121 to 1316, indicating that the bulls are still around.
But to be honest with you: the risk period for this stock is before the financial report. Expectations are set too high; if the earnings report falls short of expectations or the guidance is conservative, the stock price could crash back directly.
Two choices: If you have a high risk tolerance and are optimistic about the medium- to long-term logic of AI storage, you can set stop-losses at 1238-1250 and gamble on financial reports. If the earnings exceed expectations, it could be 1350-1400 or even higher; If it falls short of expectations, stop loss and exit, and the loss is controllable. If you don't want to bet on financial reports, today you reduced your position by half near 1300-1316, keeping half to bet on earnings. This way, you have a position when it rises, and losses when it falls, you get half your losses. Reducing positions isn't because I'm pessimistic, but because the uncertainty before the earnings report is too high, so I first locked in some profits.
If you have an empty position and want to enter:
This position is very awkward now. 1290 has already risen 17%. Chasing in is like betting on financial reports.
Lao Mo gives you two choices:
Aggressive faction: Wait for a pullback to stabilize at 1238-1250 (near the middle Bollinger band), light positions and test long, set stop-loss below 1200, target 1316-1350, exit before earnings or set protective stop-losses. Why do this? 1238 is the middle Bollinger band, and it was also the 50% retracement level from yesterday's surge, providing technical support. But positions must be kept light, as uncertainty before the earnings report is too high.
Conservative: Wait until the financial report is out. The earnings report will be released after the market hours on August 5, and the market will react at the market opening on August 6. If the earnings exceed expectations and the stock price opens high and continues to rise, it's not too late to chase or not; If the earnings fall short of expectations and the stock price crashes, you escape disaster. Don't bet on financial reports, only on trends—this has always been Lao Mo's principle.
Brothers wanting to short the market: Old Mo advises you not to short now. Just as the trend turns bullish, MACD golden cross, SAR turning bullish, SuperTrend turning bullish—all three indicators simultaneously point to bulls, making going against the trend extremely risky. Even if you want to go short, wait until the direction becomes clear after the earnings report.
Old Mo ended with a few honest words.
SanDisk dropped from 2354 to 1121, then halved and halved again. Yesterday's 17% rebound shows that the medium- to long-term logic of AI storage is still alive—five long-term contracts lock in revenue for the next few years, and the Goldman Sachs 2200 target price is not a given lightly.
But a sharp rise before the earnings report often means expectations have already been traded in advance. If you rush in now, you're betting on "earnings beating expectations"; If you wait for a pullback before entering, you're betting on a "trend continuation." There is no absolute right or wrong between the two strategies, but Lao Mo wants you to be clear about what you're betting on.
Are you betting on SanDisk's financial report or on the short bet? Let's talk in the comments.
If you think Lao Mo is clearly dismantled, give a like and follow. I'll call you right away when the financial results come out. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard BTC vs. ETH vs. Altcoins: Where is the market's relative strength right now? The period where tokenomics interpretation precedes the price chart—has the market already reflected this? The current price movements in the crypto market are not just a technical rebound but a process of reevaluating supply structure. While BTC has a clear supply-demand axis driven by spot ETF demand, ETH and altcoins still face structural headwinds with large unlocked volumes. Especially over the past two years, as many high-FDV, low-circulation projects entered the market, the altcoin sector has repeatedly seen patterns where unlocked volumes consume the price increases. The core issue of this cycle is clear. The market has begun treating tokenomics not as a secondary indicator but as a key price-determining variable. In the past, technology and community size drove altcoin prices, but now, the FDV ratio to circulating supply and the unlock schedule over the next six months determine the price cap. This structural change creates a quality gap in supply and demand between BTC and altcoins.On July 29, the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, at 3.50%-3.75%.
But among the 12 members, 3 voted against—Logan, Hamak, and Kashkari—all demanding an immediate 25 basis point rate hike.
This is the first time since 2016 that the Fed has three unanimous opposing votes at the same meeting.
After the news broke, the S&P 500 fell 1.5%, the Nasdaq dropped 1.7%, and the Dow Jones declined 2.19%.
Bitcoin dropped about 1% in an instant, hitting a low of $63,890.
Moments are flooding social media — "The hawks are here," "There will definitely be a rate hike in September," "Hurry up and run."
But I increased my position.
Why? Because 99% of people only saw three opposing votes and missed the three details from Wash's press conference.
Detail One: Wash sent a clear dovish signal at the press conference.
He downplayed the inflationary pressure brought by AI, saying that the price hikes of AI-related products are localized, not a comprehensive rise in inflation.
He attributed the recent rise in market interest rates to a strong economy.
The most crucial point — the rise in market interest rates is itself replacing rate hikes. Financial markets have already completed part of the Fed's tightening efforts.
What does that mean? Wash, saying, "The bond market has already helped me raise rates, so I don't necessarily have to change the benchmark rate." ”
If this isn't doves, then what is?
Detail 2: The probability of a rate hike in September is not rising but falling.
Before the meeting, the market priced in an 80% chance of a rate hike in September.
After the press conference, the price dropped directly to nearly 60%.
By August 4, CME data showed about a 67% probability of a rate hike in September, but the direction of marginal change was declining.
The market's first reaction is always sentiment. The second reaction is the direction. The direction is dovish.
Did you panic and cut your losses in your first reaction, or did you see an opportunity in your second reaction?
Detail 3: The US Dollar Index plunged.
From July 28 to 30, the US dollar index fell for three consecutive days, dropping over 1.5% in total and falling below the 100-point mark.
When the US dollar falls, the pressure on risk assets is being released.
Bitcoin's ability to hold above $63,000 indicates that underlying demand remains solid.
Three opposing votes scared off retail investors. The dollar's plunge tells smart money: pressure is being released.
My operation is very simple:
Do not pursue lofty heights. Place orders in batches during each panic drop triggered by macro data.
Below $63,000, one entry for every $1,000 drop.
When others panic, I look at the details.
What should we watch next?
August 27 to 29: Jackson Hole annual meeting. Wash will deliver a keynote speech on August 28.
Morgan Stanley put it bluntly: if CPI in July and August both exceed expectations, Wash may turn to more aggressive rate hikes in September—this is currently the biggest interest rate risk.
Stop losses must be set properly. Macro traders' excess returns come from the details when others panic.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully public Bezos' share reduction has limited short-term chip suppression on $AMZN, and overall market risk appetite remains balanced. Sell orders were less than 2% of his holdings, and combined with moderately expanded volume, high-level buying smoothly digested planned exits. If an unexpected rebound in macro inflation data tightens liquidity, declining risk appetite will amplify bearish signals from insider selling. If subsequent regulatory documents show an abnormally increased reduction ratio or a decline in core business financial reports, the currently neutral consolidation simulation will be disproven.
#ISM创四年新高, U.S. Treasury yields fell by #Tether季度盈利15亿, and gold rose to 146 tonsIf Apple drops below 300, I'll go for it
---
To start with the conclusion: I've already established a position in Apple, and I'm not bearish at this level.
---
Many people panicked when they saw the 7% plunge on July 31, saying Apple was doomed. But when I checked the financial report, revenue was 109.4 billion, net profit was 29.8 billion, and the iPhone rose 21%—is this what you call a bombshell? This is called a money printer, okay?
There are only two reasons for the sell-off: Q4 guidance did not exceed expectations, and memory prices have risen. But memory price hikes are due to AI competing for capacity, which is cyclical. Once the AI boom fades, costs will naturally fall. Apple has already raised the prices of Macs and iPads, which shows it has pricing power and can pass costs out.
What does 300 mean? It has retraced 13% from the high of 344. Apple earns nearly 30 billion yuan annually, holds 147 billion yuan in cash, and has an annual free cash flow of 107.7 billion yuan. There are very few cash flow machines like this worldwide.
Analysts' average target price is 319, with a high of 400. Even if it only returns to the mean, there is still room for improvement. If the memory inflection point + iPhone 17 cycle starts up, it's entirely possible to return above 350.
There's another thing many overlook: Apple is "going on-chain." Kraken's xStocks trades tokenized Apple stock on Solana and Ethereum, with a cumulative trading volume of 3.5 billion. Coinbase stock index futures put Apple alongside BTC ETFs and ETH ETFs. Apple is becoming a 24×7 global asset.
There is a lot of bearish sentiment now, but when Apple dropped to 125 in 2022, it was also widely bearish. And then?
Apple's core competitiveness has never changed: the strongest brand, the healthiest wallet, the most stable money printing ability, and 2 billion+ high-net-worth users. These are not things that "AI narratives" can replace, nor can "memory price hikes" destroy them.
I bought now at 313, and if it falls below 300, I'll add more, betting on the market sentiment shifting from extreme pessimism back to rationality.
---
#欧意星球 #AAPL #苹果 #抄底 #美股 #价值投资 #Mag7 #科技股 #个人投资 #长期持有 #苹果财报 #iPhone17 #RWA特朗普上周五还在社交媒体上放狠话，说“枪已上膛”，又说如果打击伊朗，将是“二战以来前所未有”的军事行动。美国国务院也把中东美国公民往外劝，提醒他们考虑离开当地。
那时候，市场像一个夜里被叫醒的人，衣服还没穿好，先去摸门口有没有火。
可不到48小时，剧本忽然拧了方向。
特朗普在空军一号上宣布：取消打击，周一谈判。沙特、阿联酋、卡塔尔都出来劝和，伊朗方面也传出“请求取消”的说法。
消息一落地，油价先跪了。
布伦特原油盘中一度跌7.3%，最低到81.55美元；WTI跌破80美元。7月原本接近25%的涨幅，一天吐回去将近三分之一。
另一边，比特币涨了。BTC突破63000美元，ETH涨超2%，SOL涨超3%。美股期指拉升，黄金也冲上4080美元。
社交媒体上很快热闹起来：和平来了，风险资产要起飞了。
但这件事对BTC，没那么直。
它不是一条线，是两条相反的绳子，同时在拉。
第一条，是利好。
油价暴跌，通胀预期就有机会降温；通胀降温，美联储降息的空间就重新打开；降息预期回来，流动性改善，风险资产估值自然容易被抬起来。
7月美联储议息会议里已经出现3张反对票，核心原因之一就是油价。油价如果冲向100美元，CPI很容易被重新点燃。CPI一抬头，美联储就算想降，也要先看看通胀的脸色。
现在油价突然跌下来，降息故事又能讲了。
第二条，是利空。
地缘冲突降温，避险情绪也会降温。黄金和比特币过去一段时间吃到的“战时溢价”，会被市场慢慢往下撕。
过去几个月，中东局势给BTC贴了一层“数字黄金”的标签。这个标签有用，但也脆。战争预期在，它是避险资产；战争预期退，它又会被重新塞回高波动风险资产的抽屉里。
所以今天的价格很有意思：
比特币涨了，但只涨了约1%。
布伦特却跌了7%以上。
这说明路径A在起作用，但市场还没完全相信。大家不是不想买风险资产，而是不知道这场戏到底是真停火，还是中场换布景。
为什么犹豫？
因为伊朗说，特朗普称伊朗请求停止攻击，是“一个新的谎言”。
因为伊朗又说，霍尔木兹海峡的状况不会恢复到冲突爆发前。
因为这场冲突已经拖了五个多月，而特朗普的“突然逆转”，也不是第一次出现。
一个人说已经谈妥，另一个人说没那回事。市场夹在中间，只能先把最容易交易的部分交易掉：油价下去，风险资产小幅修复。
但真正的和平，还没被定价。
BTC其实不需要世界大战来证明自己。它真正长期需要的，是法币体系继续贬值，是央行在通胀压力下降之后重新获得放水的借口。
从这个角度看，低油价对BTC中期并不坏。只要油价回落能压住通胀，只要降息预期不被破坏，流动性这条线就还有得讲。
短期的问题在于：避险溢价退潮时，BTC会不会先被卖一轮。
中期的问题在于：油价回落后，市场会不会重新把注意力放回降息和流动性。
真正要看的，不是特朗普今天说了什么，也不是伊朗明天怎么回应，而是接下来几天的联动：
油价是否继续回落。
美股科技股是否继续走强。
黄金是否还能维持高位。
BTC有没有持续资金流入，而不是只跟着情绪弹一下。
如果油价稳住低位，美股和BTC继续上行，那说明市场相信路径A：通胀降温，降息回来，风险偏好修复。
如果油价反弹，霍尔木兹再出新变量，黄金继续强、BTC却冲高回落，那说明市场交易的只是一次假和平。
今天早上的行情，定价的是“不打仗了”。
至于能不能真的和平，那是下一集。
而BTC最怕的，往往不是坏消息本身。
它怕的是：市场以为坏消息结束了，结果只是换了一种方式继续。#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #🔴 $EUL Long Liquidation Alert
$1.765K in long positions has been liquidated at $1.420.
This suggests bullish traders were forced out as price moved lower. Watch whether sellers maintain control or buyers step in to reclaim key support.
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise 🚨 $UNI Long Liquidation Alert
$55.67K in UNI long positions were liquidated at $3.827, showing strong selling pressure and increased market volatility.
Traders should stay cautious, as liquidations often lead to sharp price swings in both directions.
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise The Bitcoin $BTC miner winter is spreading!!
Total network hash rate dropped to 908 EH/s, setting a new low for 2026.
$BTC now mining a single Bitcoin with hash power costs $78,000 >$BTC the spot price is around $65,000, meaning miners lose over $10,000 per Bitcoin mined!!
Results-oriented:
Forced shutdown and marginal clearing: High electricity prices and inefficient old models (such as some S19 series) have completely penetrated shutdown prices, making miners' "queue shutdowns" a rational choice for capital preservation. The reduction in computing power means the market is clearing out marginal high-cost capacity to re-find supply-demand balance;
Lagging release of selling pressure: To maintain fiat operating expenses and repay equipment debt, unhedged miners have had to accelerate the sale of inventory, which creates short-term selling pressure on spot prices. $BTC The script is fully written, the market shakes the table—a contract player's midnight emotional breakdown
Originally, his mindset was quite steady today.
I've painted a picture for myself in advance: for breaking even, I'll be rewarded with a day of "trading leave," put down my phone, stay away from candlesticks, and completely say goodbye to the trading friction during this period. He even had plans for where to relax.
He carefully laid out three lines of defense, believing he had a perfect plan:
· At 1842 points, 20x leveraged heavy ETH short positions—precise "top-buying," thinking they have the market's lifeline;
· SNDK and UB light positions with multiple orders—big and small combinations, both offense and defense, confident this round can fill the gap of over 2,000 yuan and turn things around.
As a result, the market specializes in all kinds of "I think."
ETH gave no logic at all, aggressively pushing the market without looking back. Heavy short positions were directly spent, resulting in a massive loss of 1269 USDT, with the account nearly halved.
Looking back at those two "hedge cards"—SNDK's meager profits weren't even enough to fill the gaps; UB simply went against the trend and suffered a minor setback, making things even worse. The carefully designed hedging system is useless in front of the main players, and all the meticulous arrangements instantly become worthless.
At that moment, I was overwhelmed.
All the planning, luck, and expectations are worthless in the face of a raging market. You calculate the market, and the market is you.
They couldn't hold out anymore, and neither could they negotiate.
High-leverage contracts have never been a way for ordinary people to turn things around; they are merely a finely operated meat grinder that harvests dreams of sudden wealth.
Completely give up.
Shoulder the load and follow fate; accept the gain and loss. No longer trying to be clever and fighting the market—because the clown turns out to be myself.
---
🎯 Key points for you:
1. Three key numbers: 1842 (short position) × 20x (leverage) × 1269 USDT (single loss)—a return to pre-liberation levels;
2. "Hedging" is a false proposition—small long positions simply cannot cover the holes of heavy short positions, exposing risks to severe imbalance;
3. The biggest illusion: thinking you can accurately predict the top—the main force's aggressive push-up is a cure for various "top-buying confidences";
4. The ultimate lesson: Contracts are harvesters, not cash machines—trying to turn things around after consecutive losses often marks the beginning of even greater losses.
⚠️ Risk warning: This article is a personal trading review and does not constitute any investment advice. Leverage carries risks; enter the market with caution.
---
$ETH $SNDK $UB #30年期美债, the top or a new beginning? #美日确认联合购汇 #财报观察员: Four draws this week, with Circle as the grand finale🚨 STRATEGY’S BITCOIN FLYWHEEL MAY FINALLY BREAK TONIGHT!!!
$MSTR reports earnings tonight with:
• 843,775 BTC bought at an average price of $BTC 75,476
• STRC depegged to $BTC 88.5 versus its $100 target
• Three straight weeks without buying more BTC
• Strategy sold $BTC 544.5M of stock last week just to build cash reserves
$STRC was designed to trade near $100 through adjustable dividends.
The yield has already been raised to 12%, and $STRC still trades at a ~11% discount.
Strategy has now started buying STRC back, including $25 million at an average price of $86.52, allocating another $975 million for buybacks.
Sell $MSTR shares → dilute common holders → fund reserves and STRC support → buy less Bitcoin.
Tonight could expose the weakest balance sheet Strategy has faced in years.
#FedSplitGoesPublic
#BigTechEarningsWatch
#PalantirBeatAndRaise Bitcoin just punched back above $BTC 63,000 as U.S. equities ripped higher to open August, but the move feels more like a relief bounce than a clean breakout.
Stocks are firm, oil is sliding, and risk appetite is trying to return. Yet crypto still trades with one eye on thin liquidity, mixed ETF flows, and a security scare that has rattled holders of self-custody hardware. The Coldcard firmware issue has already drained tens of millions in $BTC across multiple waves. That kind of event does not break the network, but it does keep sentiment cautious and reminds everyone that operational risk still sits right beside market risk.
Meanwhile Strategy continues its familiar pattern of selling more $BTC while buying back preferred shares, and BlackRock is expanding tokenized cash products on-chain. Institutional plumbing is advancing even as price action stays range-bound. DEX volume share hit a fresh record in July, showing capital is still rotating on-chain rather than sitting idle.
In my view the market is in a classic mid-cycle digestion phase. $BTC is testing whether the 200-week moving average area near current levels can hold as real support. $ETH is consolidating while some accumulation continues. $SOL, $XRP and $BNB are moving with the broader tape but lack independent leadership. $ADA has shown relative strength on its roadmap progress. Names like $ALGO, $INJ and $ENA are catching selective flows, while $LINK, $DOT, $AVAX and $DOGE remain sensitive to any shift in risk sentiment. Even $HYPE and $UNI are reflecting the same liquidity and positioning dynamics playing out across the board.
None of this guarantees a sustained rally. August has historically been soft for $BTC, ETF demand has been uneven, and the CLARITY Act timeline plus upcoming earnings from Circle and others will set the tone for the next few weeks. Geopolitical noise around Iran adds another layer of uncertainty.
#FedSplitGoesPublic
#BigTechEarningsWatch
#PalantirBeatAndRaise Amazon's stock price is hovering near its all-time high, and founder Bezos has gradually cashed out part of his holdings over the past six months, a move that quickly sparked market concerns about the peak of tech stocks.
As the news of share reduction spread, overall trading volume in the U.S. tech sector saw a modest increase, but $AMZN did not experience panic selling.
This reduction accounted for less than 2% of its total holdings, representing a pre-planned capital restructuring rather than an immediate denial of the company's fundamentals.
When market liquidity is abundant and risk appetite remains high, such minor adjustments in insider positions are usually absorbed by strong buying.
If subsequent earnings show AWS business and AI catalysts continue to exceed expectations, the stock price is likely to break above the high platform, but an unexpected rebound in macroinflation data could weaken this upward momentum.
If macro liquidity tightens more than expected and overall market risk appetite declines, insider sell-offs may be amplified as a bearish signal. However, as long as core business profit margins remain untouched, the short-term drawdown will be limited.
If subsequent regulatory documents show an abnormally increased proportion of insider reductions, or if the overall financial reports of tech stocks show a systemic decline, then the current judgment that planned share reductions are not harmful to the overall trend will be disproven.
In the next seven days, the most noteworthy variables to watch are changes in macro liquidity indicators and the latest earnings reports from tech giants that are about to be released.
#折旧年限延至25年, Microsoft lowered its capital expenditure guidance #美伊重回谈判桌, causing oil prices to retreat🔴 $IDOL Long Liquidation Alert
$4.7339K in IDOL long positions were liquidated at $0.01552, showing that bullish traders were forced out as price moved against them.
Liquidation events often increase short-term volatility, so keep an eye on price action before entering new positions.
#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise $BTC Japan rescues the yen, the U.S. supports U.S. debt, but the risks have never disappeared—they have only changed their disguises
Do you think central banks are trying to "rescue the market"? No, they are "changing hands." $ETH
Recently, Japan intervened again in the exchange rate, and the U.S. Treasury Department has been busy soothing the U.S. Treasury market. On the surface, the yen is stable, US Treasury yields are suppressed, and everyone is happy. But if you look closely at the market, you'll find a harsh truth: the risk hasn't disappeared, but has been moved to a quieter corner.
Who is paying the bill? $DOGE
— Are you a speculator holding a short position on the yen? Yes, but only a few.
The real buyers are Japanese banks forced to reduce their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, global markets experiencing a sharp drop in liquidity due to balance sheet reduction, and export companies holding dollar assets but afraid to exchange them for their own currencies.
By selling US Treasuries for yen, Japan is essentially shifting the selling pressure from Tokyo to New York; The U.S. tacitly approved this move, bringing short-term interest rate differentials but sacrificing the credit anchor of long-term U.S. Treasuries. This "mutual aid" is essentially a liquidity swap—exchanging short-term exchange rate stability for greater future volatility flexibility.
And what about the crypto market? As the "hidden taxes" within the fiat currency system rise higher and central banks narrow their policy space, the risk-averse narrative of Bitcoin and stablecoins is quietly being reinforced. The risk you see is yen fluctuations, and the signal I understand is: sovereign credit is being repriced. #从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully public
Don't be fooled by the joint performance of Japan and the US. The seeds of the next storm have already been planted in today's intervention. #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale
The real risk is never on the candlestick you are watching, but in the invisible layers of your balance sheet. #美日确认联合购汇 Is MicroStrategy also struggling? It sold another 1,638 BTC...
This time, Strategy sold 1,638 $BTC, cashing out $BTC 104.7 million, with an average selling price of $63,957. Compared to the 3,588 sold in early July, the scale is about 54% less.
The money from selling coins was not used to run away; $BTC 52.4 million was used to pay preferred stock dividends, and $BTC 52.3 million was used to repurchase STRC.
In short, MicroStrategy is currently busy not with mindlessly buying more coins, but maintaining its financing system.
This sale accounts for only about 0.19% of the total holdings, and the company still holds 842,138 BTC, so it’s not yet a case of "struggling to hold on."
It used to be a permanent bull that only bought and never sold, but now it has started using BTC to handle cash needs. Selling once can be called financial arrangement; if it continues to sell consecutively, the situation changes.
Faith hasn’t collapsed for now, but the strategy has indeed changed.
#FedSplitGoesPublic
#BigTechEarningsWatch
#PalantirBeatAndRaise 一、最新盘面行情（美东8月3日，北京时间8月4日凌晨收盘，美股今日（美东8月4日）尚未开盘）
- 标的：闪迪 shturl.
- 收盘价：1288.03美元，单日涨幅 +6.03%，日内振幅高达14%（盘中最深跌8%，走出深V反转行情）
- 日内区间：开盘1159.84，最低1121.27，最高1316.45美元
- 成交量：1475.93万股，放量反弹，换手率10.10%，资金博弈激烈
- 板块环境：费城半导体指数V型收涨，但存储板块分化严重，仅闪迪、美光收涨，西部数据、希捷收跌，行情独立性较强
二、本轮反弹核心驱动
1. 财报预期博弈：8月5日（美东时间）即将发布第四财季财报，市场一致预期营收大幅同比增长，机构普遍看好业绩表现，资金提前埋伏
2. 超跌空头回补：该股自6月高点2354美元最大回撤超44%，短期恐慌抛压释放完毕，空头回补+抄底资金进场推动反弹
3. 宏观情绪回暖：中东地缘冲突缓和，美债收益率下行，美股科技大盘整体走强，成长赛道资金回流
三、关键观测价位（仅观察参考，非操作点位）
压力位
- 短期第一压力：1316美元（昨日日内高点）
- 强压力区间：1380~1400美元（前期成交密集套牢区）
支撑位
- 就近支撑：1260~1270美元（收盘筹码密集区）
- 强支撑：1210美元（前一交易日收盘价，本轮反弹起点）
四、不同视角的盘面观察思路（非交易策略）
1. 短线观察（财报前博弈）
- 利好：放量V转打破连续下跌趋势，多头情绪回暖，机构评级普遍偏多
- 最大风险：财报落地极易利好兑现回落，预期打得过高，哪怕业绩达标，也容易冲高跳水；板块没有协同上涨，独立行情持续性存疑
- 观察重点：明日开盘能否站稳1300美元上方；若缩量冲高无力，警惕财报前资金获利出逃
2. 中线观察（持仓周期数周）
- 单日反弹不能判定趋势反转，必须等待财报两个核心数据验证：实际营收/EPS、下季度订单产能指引
- 两种走向：
- 财报+指引超预期：可等待回踩支撑位再评估中线机会
- 业绩不及预期/指引保守：本轮反弹仅为超跌修复，股价大概率重回震荡下行
- 行业逻辑：存储周期上行逻辑不变，但短期股价完全被财报预期主导，而非基本面定价
3. 保守稳健思路（更适合普通投资者）
- 财报窗口期波动率会急剧放大，博弈性价比很低
- 最优选择：等待8月5日财报完整发布，观察股价方向选择、机构评级调整之后，再判断后续走势，避开消息面不确定性
五、潜在利空风险
1. 美股高估值科技股依旧受美债利率波动压制，大盘情绪反转会拖累个股
2. 存储板块周期性极强，若云厂商AI资本开支放缓，中长期业绩逻辑会弱化
3. 本轮上涨依靠财报预期，一旦业绩不及市场激进预期，会快速回吐涨幅
4. 短期振幅巨大，杠杆交易极易出现大幅亏损$ZEC 🛡️ The Privacy Coin Bitcoin + zk-SNARKs = Shielded Transactions 21M Supply | Decentralized | Real Use Case In a world of surveillance, privacy matters. NFA. DYOR. #ZEC #Zcash #Privacy #CryptoWhen $STRC was last at par exactly, Bitcoin was trading at slightly over $81k.
If we are to assume (based on todays move) that it will return to par after another potential tweak by Strategy next week, I dont see any reason why Bitcoin cannot go back to $81k and above.
There have been many negative narratives over the past 10 months, but in my opinion, the one recurring theme was the ridiculous attack on Saylor and Strategy.
With STRC back at par, sticky inflation still a major conversation in the markets, the underlying asset increasing in value, and a $4bn cash reserve in place, I think Strategy gets back to buying Bitcoin.
It may not be as agressive as the first 4 or 5 months of the year. It may not in itself, numerically, be enough to move the market. But the sentiment boost, and subsequent narrative shift, may just be enough heading in to September to kick start the next bull run.
Watch this space...Anytime $STRC has fallen off its $100 peg target $BTC has found a local low and rallied once its re-pegged back to their $100 stated amount per share.
It has taken $STRC a lot longer this time to get back to target price, but I do think the same thing will happen with $BTC once it gets there.🚨 STRATEGY’S BITCOIN FLYWHEEL MAY FINALLY BREAK TONIGHT!!!
$MSTR reports earnings tonight with:
• 843,775 BTC bought at an average price of $75,476
• STRC depegged to $88.5 versus its $100 target
• Three straight weeks without buying more BTC
• Strategy sold $544.5M of stock last week just to build cash reserves
$STRC was designed to trade near $100 through adjustable dividends.
The yield has already been raised to 12%, and $STRC still trades at a ~11% discount.
Strategy has now started buying STRC back, including $25 million at an average price of $86.52, allocating another $975 million for buybacks.
Sell $MSTR shares → dilute common holders → fund reserves and STRC support → buy less Bitcoin.
Tonight could expose the weakest balance sheet Strategy has faced in years.Before the bell even rings, I've already silently reenacted twenty steps of the $FIL endgame in my mind. It rose 4.11% in 24 hours, sounding like a beautiful central pawn attacking, but the board never declares victory just because a pawn advances. The Bollinger Bands are at 81% in the short term and 102% in the medium term. This is not standing at the upper edge, but rather the thin paper that has already pierced the upper edge. RSI is 66.5 in the short term, 49.3 in the long term—the short term is like a war chariot that can't be stopped, while the long line is still lingering in the middle line, showing a disconnected formation. This is the most typical "fake first-move" in the midgame: before the second player can catch up, the minion wave has already penetrated deep into the enemy line.
On my board, the red signal has already lit up: SELL. A true grandmaster never clashes head-on with the opponent at the peak of their forces, but sacrifices a soldier to lure them into narrow street battles. $FIL Now is like an overprotected elephant, seemingly occupying a wide line, but in reality, every step shrinks its range of movement. An 81% short-term position means it can still take a step or two, but a 102% mid-term position tells me: this roof can't hold a second person anymore.
So my plan isn't to chase the rally, but to set up defenses below the opponent's formation in advance. I don't play when others are cheering; I wait for the price to reach the point I predict—that's not entering the market, it's "catching double numbers." Now at $0.75, there's still a 4.1% buffer to my entry, which is $0.78. It may seem like a countertrend, but the most ruthless attacks in Chinese chess often start with a discarded piece that seems to be losing the lead.
📉 Kong:
Entry: $0.78 (current price +4.1%)
Take profit 1: $0.70 (-6.8%)
Take Profit 2: $0.71 (-4.6%)
Stop loss: $0.87 (+16.5%)
Look, my Take-Profit 1 is farther than Take-Profit 2, just like a two-piece chain in an endgame: first take the distant pathway minion, then turn back to capture the nearby boss. The stop-loss is set at +16.5%, which is the most fatal gap on the open line; Once that place is breached, the entire royal city will irreversibly open. The short-term RSI is 66.5, just a few inches short of the overbought line; the long-term is 49.3, indicating the major cycle is still hesitant. The divergence between the two time dimensions is more convincing than any one-sided signal—this is precisely the moment when the early players are most likely to make mistakes when transitioning from midgame to endgame.
Bollinger Bands have 81% in the short term and 102% in the mid-game, each telling the same story: too long multi-head minion waves, broken support supply. A true player never chases fleeting local advantages; at the thickest part of the opponent's formation, he has already begun planning counterattacks on the other side. Now, the opponent has played a 'soft' move, exposing their weaknesses to my field of vision without reservation.
I won't refuse this gift. #coinmovealert#SPCX首份财报将公布, with the $100 billion unlock imminent, is SpaceX safe if it rises 6%? The real highlight comes next
Last night, $SPCX surged from around $105 all the way to $116, finally closing at $114.53, up nearly 6%.
This bullish candlestick is quite strong, but if you see it as a reversal now, I think it's still a bit too early.
Tonight is SpaceX's first quarterly report since going public, but the real trouble lies ahead: on August 6, up to 911.5 million old shares will be eligible for sale. Based on the current stock price, the corresponding market value is about $104.4 billion.
To be clear, unlocking is not an additional issuance, nor does it mean these stocks will definitely be sold. It does not increase total share capital out of thin air; what changes is the supply of chips in the market.
Currently, SpaceX has about 640 million shares in circulation, and this batch of shares to be unlocked exceeds the existing circulation. If all are entered into the market, the tradable chip theoretically increases by about 142%. This is the biggest pressure after the earnings report.
SpaceX's account is also quite interesting.
Revenue for 2025 is $18.674 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.2%; Adjusted EBITDA reached $6.584 billion, with operating cash flow of $6.785 billion. Judging by these alone, it really doesn't seem like a company with poor business.
On the other hand, the net loss for the year was $4.937 billion. Simply adding up the data disclosed by the three business segments, capital expenditure in 2025 has already exceeded $20.7 billion.
The money is mainly spent on Starship, Starlink satellite networks, and AI data centers.
Among them, Starlink's connectivity business is actually very profitable: annual revenue of $11.387 billion, operating profit of $4.423 billion. The real drag is the AI business, which is expected to lose $6.355 billion in operating losses by 2025.
So tonight, we can't just focus on 'whether revenue exceeds expectations.'
What's even more worth watching is whether Starlink's profits can continue to grow, whether the pace of AI and Starship's cash burn has slowed, and whether management is willing to provide clearer follow-up guidance.
To put it bluntly, SpaceX's current business isn't profitable, but rather that its earning speed can't keep up with its spending speed.
On the market, $116–$120 is the first short-term resistance. If the financial report is good but the stock price can't hold even here, it shows that funds are more afraid of the lock-up unlock; If after the volume ramps on August 6, it can still hold at $116, then there will truly be people willing to take on this batch of chips.
Let's first look at $105, then $100. As for the IPO price of $135, it remains the heaviest position among trapped investors for now.
The logic behind the subsequent trading is actually quite simple: how much the price rises after tonight's after-hours is just sentiment. The real answer is how much remains after Thursday's lock-up is lifted.
Financial reports tell the story, and unlocks test how many people are willing to pay real money to believe the story.
#财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale Fundamental Research Report $AAPL / Apple (NASDAQ·Consumer Electronics/AI) $303.42 (24h -1.78%)
To summarize: Apple ($AAPL) has an overall score of 62/100, with a rating that emphasizes narrative over implementation. The business fundamentals are mainly external payments, and the market value-to-income multiple remains within a reasonable range.
Apple ($AAPL) is listed on NASDAQ, focusing on the consumer electronics/AI sector. Simply put: iPhone + Apple Intelligence. Benchmarking against MSFT and GOOGL. AI computing power demand comes from large model training and inference, with hyperscaler capital expenditure being the core driving force. A single AI server sells for $200,000–$500,000, with a gross margin of 10–15%, and economies of scale determine profitability. It does not involve token economics or on-chain settlement logic. Product launch: Officially operational with paid usage, revenue can be verified by SEC 10-Q/10-K, financial data is legally disclosed. Latest version not found, valid submissions in the past 90 days Not found times.
At the user level, MAU and customer numbers are based on 10-Q/10-K. 24-hour stock turnover $71.99M, outstanding shares and market capitalization structure yet to be confirmed. The core is whether revenue growth rate and gross margin match stock price expectations. On the revenue side, operating income is $466.82B (latest financial report/consensus estimate), gross profit is estimated based on industry averages to be supplemented, net profit is to be recognized in 10-K/10-Q, and shareholder income is based on buybacks and dividends. Making money for US companies does not necessarily mean token holders are making money; BTC-related assets like MSTR/COIN need to separate BTC floating gains. On the code side, 90-day valid submissions not found, active contributors not found, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: Apple ($AAPL) is the listed entity, and the shareholder structure is subject to disclosure on 13F/10-K. Primary cooperation is based on IR announcements as Grade A evidence, media mentions and industry conferences are Grade C/D, and are not used solely as commercial grounds.
Valuation anchor, circulating market cap $4.46T, valued at P/E, P/S, EV/Revenue, not applicable to token unlocks. BTC-related stocks (MSTR/COIN/MARA) need to be split into BTC exposure and main business revaluation. Let's look at it together with peers (unified standards, no random cross-sector comparisons): In terms of circulating market cap, Apple $4.46T, MSFT $3.62T, GOOGL $4.57T. For FDV, Apple has not disclosed MSFT at $3.62T, and GOOGL at $4.57T. In terms of annualized revenue, Apple $466.82B, MSFT $331.84B, and GOOGL $445.87B. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Apple has not disclosed this, MSFT has not disclosed, and GOOGL has not disclosed it. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, current market cap $4.46T, P/S (consensus revenue) 9.5x. Cyclical stocks (mining companies/GPUs) use cyclical adjustments for P/E. Pessimistic outlook is $4.46T, halving and maintaining a neutral range; optimistic about P/S expansion of 20-50%. In summary: solid fundamentals (score 62/100). Equity value anchors revenue, net profit, and buyback dividends. Circulating market capitalization is reasonable or low relative to fundamentals, FDV is close to MC, no major unlock, and selling pressure is manageable. Potential pitfalls: Rising macro interest rates suppressing valuations, AI capex investment falling short of expectations, regulatory litigation (SEC/DoL). Next, focus on these numbers: revenue growth rate, gross margin, buyback amount, order backlog, and changes in institutional holdings (13F). Information sources are public, logic is self-developed, and does not constitute buy or sell advice. Data deviations exceeding 30% require reassessment.
That's all for this research report. If you found it useful, please give it a follow.
#基本面研报 #美股 #研究 #OKXOrbitTips for Turning US Stock Markets into Crypto: How do pre-market, after-hours, night sessions, and 24-hour trading come about?
U.S. stock trading hours will worsen until 24 hours. Just look at its history and you'll understand:
🔹 1985:
The US stock market, represented by the Nasdaq, only has morning and midday trading, with no after-hours trading. Just like A-shares.
🔹 1991:
Trading volumes in London and Tokyo rose sharply, but they are not in the same time zone as US stocks.
If trading hours are not extended, global funds can only go to local exchanges.
So Nasdaq took the lead in launching ECN (Electronic Communication Network) trading after hours, extending it by one hour (just business competition).
🔹 1990s~2000:
With frequent financial reports, economic data, and geopolitical conflicts, these often occur during Asian or European trading hours. If U.S. stocks do not offer after-hours trading, there will be significant gap-up risk, leading to continuous orders flowing out.
Therefore, major exchanges have gradually expanded after-hours trading hours, with only one core goal: to retain orders and prevent diversion of orders. (Once everyone understands, they're starting to grab users.)
🔹 2024:
A historic step — U.S. stocks officially launched 24-hour trading (overnight trading).
🔹 2026:
24-hour trading will become mainstream and standard.
📌 The core reason is simple:
24×7 trading in cryptocurrency and forex markets has become a global standard.
If you don't provide it, users vote with their feet, and both orders and liquidity are transferred away.
Times have changed, and the market will always vote with real money.
#财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finaleFrom "buy, buy, buy" to "sell, sell, sell": Strategy's playbook is being rewritten
On August 3, Strategy submitted a document to the SEC—
From July 27 to August 2, 1,638 Bitcoins were sold, cashing out $104.7 million.
Average price: $63,957.
Their holding cost is $75,419.
Each coin lost $11,462.
The once "buy-only, never sell" Bitcoin whale is now selling at a loss.
Don't rush to curse just yet. Let's look at these numbers before we continue:
In the first seven months of this year, Strategy bought 174,895 BTC and sold 3,620.
Selling volume is less than a fraction of the buying volume.
842,000 BTC, accounting for 4% of the global total, with an average cost of $75,419.
But things are not that simple.
On June 29, Strategy officially launched the "Digital Credit Capital Framework."
From then on, the phrase "never sell" was thrown into the trash.
CEO Phong Le put it bluntly: the company's main goal is to keep STRC preferred shares stable in the $99 to $100 range. What is STRC? It is preferred stock issued by Strategy, with an annualized dividend of 12% and a face value of $100.
But now it's only worth $89.46.
This is more than 10% lower than the face value.
Why sell coins? The answer is all here:
A 12% dividend—you can't afford not to pay it.
STRC fell below par value, breaking the positive cycle of "issuing preferred shares → buying BTC."
So this time, half of the money from selling coins is paid as dividends ($52.4 million) and half as STRC buybacks ($52.3 million).
At the same time, the company sold over 3 million shares of MSTR common stock, raising $290 million—$250 million into dollar reserves, and $28.9 million to continue repurchasing STRC.
As of August 2, dollar reserves had reached $4 billion.
4 billion in cash, 840,000 BTC. Previously, it was "issuing bonds to buy crypto," now it's "selling coins to maintain stability."
Even more ruthless is yet to come:
The company authorized the sale of up to $5 billion worth of Bitcoin.
This is four times the 1.25 billion yuan plan in early July.
The purpose is divided into three parts: 1.25 billion yuan to supplement reserves, 1.76 billion yuan for dividends and interest, and 2 billion yuan for stock buybacks.
Michael Saylor himself said that $5 billion is the upper limit, "but the total may ultimately be higher."
What does $5 billion mean?
At the current price of the coin, that's about 78,000 BTC.
Less than 10% of their total holdings.
But the direction has changed.
Before, we did addition; now we do subtraction. The community has exploded.
Some say Saylor betrayed his faith. Some say this is forced financial self-rescue.
Saylor himself responded: "I have never sold any personal Bitcoin, not a single Satoshi."
But netizens dug up old tweets from the past six years in which he repeatedly declared he would "never sell."
Rules only bind retail investors, not themselves?
This is not a collapse of faith, but a strategic transformation.
Strategy is no longer a "buy and sell" Bitcoin ETF.
It has become an active capital management company.
Bitcoin has transformed from a "faith asset" into a "liquidity tool."
Previously, storytelling relied on "how much BTC we have."
Now, storytelling relies on "we have 4 billion in cash + 840,000 BTC + flexibility to cash out at any time." What does this mean for the market?
Short term: Negative sentiment. The phrase "the biggest bulls have started selling" is scary enough.
Medium to long-term: This precisely indicates that large institutions need liquidity management. Strategy is not bearish on BTC; it is forced to sell by the 12% dividend.
As long as STRC doesn't return to $100, they won't resume large-scale buying for a day.
Now it's 10% short.
This 10% is the signal the entire market has been waiting for.
You're still wondering, "Can Bitcoin reach 100,000?"
Holders of 840,000 BTC are already calculating "how much to sell to pay dividends."
While you're still shouting "HODL."
The founder of "Never Sell" is being forced to sell coins by their preferred stock structure.
Understanding this shift is ten thousand times more important than obsessing over how much was sold this time.#从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully public
From rate cuts to rate hikes, Fed disagreements are fully revealed: Has BTC's "liquidity spring" been crushed by insiders?
The July FOMC remained unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. On the surface, things were calm, but inside, things had already fallen apart:
In a 9:3 vote, the three local presidents—Hamack, Kashkari, and Logan—immediately opposed the proposal, demanding a direct 25bp hike.
Walsh says he's "waiting for data," but three opposing votes make it clear—inflation hasn't returned to 2%, rate cuts aren't the benchmark scenario, and rate hikes are the only option to be postponed.
Previously, the market was trading "rate cuts within the year," but now it is being forced to reprice:
• 10Y US Treasuries surged 4.68%, 30Y fell to 5.22%, no rate hikes but tighter than rate hikes (bond market tightened on its own)
• Citibank is looking for rate cuts in October/December, Min Bank expects one rate hike this year, Northeast Securities expects the rate cut hasn't been cleared out—institutions themselves are conflicted
• Trump wants to cut interest rates, the Fed's "three hawks" want to raise rates, and Chairman Walsh uses "unforward-looking guidance" to shift the blame onto the market
My view is straightforward:
This round of disagreements is not noise, but signals. The Fed has shifted from a "countdown to rate cuts" to a "rate hike standby," and the crypto market is still pricing in a rate cut bull market—just like catching a knife from the left side.
In the short term, BTC isn't about ETF inflows, but whether the 10-year yield can be pushed back below 4.5%—if it can't, existing funds will continue to deleverage, and the rebound will be just a chance to reduce positions, not a signal to chase long positions.
But conversely, divergence = volatility = opportunity: if another 25bp increase is made in September, with all the negative news being sold out + liquidity expectations recovering, that is the entry point for the next trend long position. Don't believe in the 'macro bull is back' now—survive under the 3.5%–3.75% rate anchor.
Crypto folks, remember this:
When the Fed is fighting internally, don't take sides with all your holdings; Wait until the day they unify interest rate hikes or cuts, then follow the trend.Let's take a look at who is pushing this rebound. $BTC rebounded from just over 62,000 to 63,800 over two days, but the perpetual funding rate only turned positive from zero to moderate, without the high positive rate of aggressive bull borrowing; At the same time, the main blow-ups in the past 24 hours were the bears. Putting these two points together, the picture becomes clear: this is more like a squeeze driven by "short covering," rather than a main rally driven by incremental bulls entering aggressively. What's the difference? The fuel for a short squeeze rebound is short stop loss; once burned out, the flame easily stalls; A real trend reversal depends on continued spot support and healthy OI expansion. So don't rush to label this wave as a "reversal"—first see if the rates will overheat.AI storage is opening a new track, with HBF and the industry power behind it shifting
SK Hynix, SanDisk, and Google have jointly released the first high-bandwidth HBF flash standard specification
Developed by OCP's HBF Technical Working Group, it defines system interfaces, electrical specifications, xPU and HBF host interfaces, as well as reliability and packaging guidance for die stacking. AI chip startup Tenstorrent subsequently joined the alliance. This marks the opening of a new track for AI storage after HBM.
HBF is a new storage tier between HBM and SSD, achieving bandwidth close to HBM and much greater capacity by stacking NAND flash. A single stack can reach 512GB, about 8 to 16 times that of similar HBM, with read bandwidth up to 1.6TB/s.
Its significance lies in meeting the demand for AI to shift from training to reasoning. Inference is a burden that demands both bandwidth and capacity: HBM is too expensive and too small, SSDs too slow, and HBF fills the middle, mainly serving KV Cache and weighted shards for read-to-write data.
It is worth noting:
1. Upgrading the main theme of storage price increases.
Previously, the market focused on HBM supply outstripping supply and soaring storage prices; even Apple's Cook warned at its earnings call that memory chips are experiencing a once-in-a-century price increase.
The significance of HBF lies in expanding AI's storage needs from a single HBM to the NAND flash line. In other words, in the past, the main drivers of the AI narrative were DRAM-based storage manufacturers; now NAND has also gained entry, and the AI-driven storage industry is sweeping through.
2. Who holds the starting position?
SK Hynix and SanDisk are the standard leaders, essentially setting the rules early on a new track that hasn't yet taken shape, gaining a first-mover advantage. For domestic storage, HBF is a window where standards are just starting and the landscape is not yet firmly established. It is both an entry point and may evolve into a new technological barrier dominated by a few giants.
3. Google's Role.
Google is not a storage manufacturer, but it participated as the lead party in setting the standard. The standard specifically defines the host interface between xPU and HBF, and here, xPU refers to Google's self-developed AI chip.
This shows that the definition of storage in the AI era is shifting from traditional storage vendors to cloud providers directly involved. Whoever uses massive computing power for inference is more motivated to define what storage looks like for inference services.
⚠️ It is important to remain objective that HBF is still futures rather than spot for now.
According to the plan, SanDisk's first batch of samples will be delivered in the second half of 2026, and samples of AI inference devices equipped with HBF are expected to appear in early 2027, so commercialization will still take time.
At the same time, the main bottleneck in flash memory's lifespan lies in write and erase operations, which means it is positioned as a supplement rather than a replacement.
💥The value of HBF lies not in current revenue, but in the fact that it marks the competition in AI storage, moving from the single-point battle of HBM to the layering battle between HBM plus HBF plus SSD. #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开
短短数个月，市场叙事完成大反转：年初大家普遍博弈降息周期开启，如今加息讨论重回台面，FOMC内部分歧彻底公开，9票维持、3票委员直接主张加息，为近年罕见。
先理清分歧核心根源
所有人目标都是2%通胀，矛盾不在终点，而在节奏判断。
鹰派阵营：通胀粘性超预期，油价扰动持续，延后加息只会造成更顽固的物价压力，需要提前收紧。
观望阵营：就业逐步降温，前期长债收益率上行已经被动收紧金融环境，优先等待更多数据验证，避免过度紧缩冲击经济。
市场告别“确定性叙事”
沃什大幅削减前瞻指引，不再给市场明确政策路线。过去依靠“降息预期”无脑做多风险资产的行情不复存在，每一轮CPI、PCE数据都会引发预期剧烈摇摆，波动率持续抬升。
长债收益率定价逻辑改变
短端利率暂时观望，但30年期收益率持续冲高。资金担忧：美联储短期不动，若通胀反弹，未来需要把利率维持在更高位置。长久期资产（BTC、成长科技股）持续承受估值压制。
我的解读就是:不要简单理解“3人主张加息=很快加息”。
多数委员依旧倾向观望，短期立刻加息属于黑天鹅情景。
但最重要的信号：降息窗口被持续推后，高利率维持时间拉长。
这意味着牛市很难依靠流动性宽松驱动，行情只能依靠内生资金、监管利好等独立催化。
彻底放弃单边长期多头幻想，以区间震荡思路应对，反弹适合分批减仓，不要追高。
行情高度依赖经济数据。通胀一旦再度走强，美债收益率上行，主流币承压；通胀持续降温，才会迎来阶段性修复窗口。
山寨环境会更加分化。流动性预期不稳定时，资金优先抱团BTC、ETH，小币种持续性普遍偏弱。
后市重点跟踪两大指标：PCE通胀数据、30年期美债收益率能否站稳高位。Overview of BTC's historical bull and bear cycle fluctuations
Based on historical multiples and high-low drawdown data, I will try to predict the bottom of this round and the high of the next multiple according to the rules
Conclusion:
The bottom is 37,800-44,000
Multiples of 3-5 times, but even 5 times might be overestimated
Given that we cannot buy at the lowest point or sell at the highest point, the actual multiples we can get are definitely not as high as theoretically
So BTC is losing its high volatility. What do the experts think is good or bad?
A bear market is long, just for fun, and does not constitute investment advice
$BTCThe biggest illusion in contracts: You think liquidation is because you misread the direction
Actually, it's not.
Most people die in contracts not because of choosing the wrong direction, but because of the moment the funding rate spirals out of control. When the cost of holding a position starts to eat into floating profits, the contract in your hand is no longer a transaction—it's just a passing of the word.
Rates keep rising, positions heat up, until one day, the market only needs a gentle push, and the whole structure collapses.
The big pool can still hold up:
$BTC · $ETH · $BNB · $SOL · $XRP
Mid-cap coins and high-beta altcoins are always directly engulfed:
$SUI · $APT · $SEI · $NEAR · $AVAX · $ADA · $DOT · $LTC · $TRX · $TON · $LINK · $UNI · $AAVE · $MKR · $HYPE · $ZEC · $SNDK · $DOGE
These stocks, after every OI overheat, move almost identically—pull up, fill the longs, then strike back to the starting point. Every sharp drop you see on the candlestick is backed by a pile of positions being cleared.
The AI and infrastructure sectors are similar:
$TAO · $FET · $RNDR · $AKT · $DATA · $WLD · $SENT · $NEX · $AGIX · $OCEAN · $AIOZ · $KAITO · $NEAR · $FIL · $AR · $THETA · $GRT
Before dumping, contract positions for these coins always pile up to the high, then buy them all at once. It's not that the project is bad, but that leverage is too maxed out—a single pullback can wipe out all the bulls.
The DeFi sector is no exception:
$UNI · $AAVE · $MKR · $PENDLE · $RE · $KAITO · $ENA · $ONDO · $JTO · $LDO · $CRV · $COMP · $SNX
When leverage stamps in, spot buying cannot be supported, and prices plummet.
Meme and high-beta stocks have the fastest liquidation speeds, with a 20% drop in minutes being a normal performance:
$PEPE · $WIF · $BONK · $FLOKI · $POPCAT · $MEW · $MEME · $CHIP · $JELLYJELLY · $YALA · $FIGHT · $ROBO · $DOGE · $SHIB · $BOME · $GIGGLE · $BEAT · $LAB · $TRUMP · $HOME · $MEGA · $SPACE · $VIRTUAL
You think you're trading momentum, but you're actually just taking the last hit when emotions are at their highest.
The worst off are those low-liquidity stocks. Once forced liquidation is triggered, you won't even find counterparties:
$ARB · $OP · $MATIC · $FIL · $EOS · $SAND · $ALGO · $LTC · $TRX · $TON · $BEAT · $EDGE · $COAI · $TRUMP · $RAVE · $SPACE · $SOPH · $IP · $AVNT · $ZAMA · $OFC · $PIEVERSE · $VIRTUAL · $ACU · $MEGA · $OPG · $SLX · $LAB · $BSB · $ALLO · $EDEN · $HUMA · $ZKP · $METIS · $GEOD · $GRVT · $OMNI · $MF · $NIGHT · $OPN · $WMTX · $LSSOL · $HYPE · $ZEC ·
$SNDK · $AEON · $BICO · $PUMP · $BZ · $HOME · $RE · $ZAMA · $CORE · $SOON · $XMR · $MU · $SPCX · $SKHY · $CL · $XAU
These coins are not without opportunities; their leverage margin is too low. When you enter, you see it as an opportunity; only when you come out do you realize the cost.
$RAVE This round is a living example. A market driven by high leverage only hits bottom after a forced liquidation.
When trading contracts, keep an eye on OI, track funding rates, and manage your margin well.
High leverage can turn a promising trading opportunity into a forced liquidation notice.
Living long is far more important than earning quickly.
$BTC$ETH$SOL
#Crypto #Trading #Leverage #清算风险 #合约交易 #风险管理
Personal views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.Fundamental Research Report $KAS / Kaspa (Public Chain/L1) $3.20
Summary: Kaspa ($KAS) overall score 58/100, rating narrative outweighs implementation. Breaking down the three layers: the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
Fundamental Breakdown: Kaspa (token $KAS), public chain/L1 sector. Focuses on GhostDAG high-speed PoW. Competitors include BTC, LTC. Traditional enterprise collaboration relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation; during high concurrency, gas fees spike, TPS is limited, and cross-chain bridge security incidents are frequent. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Customer unit price is $50-500/month, requiring USDC or fiat settlement. Narrative-driven sector, usage drops 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: protocol layer officially running, on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid commits in the last 90 days.
User side: address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24h transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users; large addresses holding concentrated positions may overestimate real user count. Revenue side: user fees not disclosed, supplier revenue about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn annualized no burn mechanism. 24h transaction volume is business flow, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. Code side: 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence for direct verification. Investment background: company equity financing checked via PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B, not representing long-term holdings by technical VCs, technical integration checked via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment, exchange listing does not equal exchange strategic investment.
Token side: total supply 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock 2026-Q4 (3.50% of circulating), annualized burn/buyback no clear mechanism. Must buy tokens to use product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/staking/service access). Compared with peers (uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparison): Circulating market cap: Kaspa $3.00B, BTC undisclosed, LTC undisclosed. FDV: Kaspa $4.20B, BTC undisclosed, LTC undisclosed. Annual revenue: Kaspa $2.00M, BTC undisclosed, LTC undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Kaspa undisclosed, BTC undisclosed, LTC undisclosed. Figures based on public data snapshots; some missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic scenario $3.00B discounted 50-70%, neutral range oscillation, optimistic scenario revenue doubles, burn implemented, enterprise clients onboard, FDV P/S aligns with top projects. In summary: fundamentals solid (score 58/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/Gas). Circulating market cap relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overextended expectations, FDV moderate. Risk warnings: short-term large unlocks dumping, protocol revenue long-term zero, token demand relying only on incentives (if incentives stop, usage collapses). Key future indicators: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Derived from public data, not investment advice. Conclusions invalid if core indicators change by more than 30%.
End of report, welcome to discuss.
#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbit$PLTR has released its earnings report. First, a disclosure: I hold a position myself, so the following judgments come with a bias; everyone should weigh them independently.
Palantir's Q2 earnings report is indeed very solid. Revenue reached $1.94 billion, a 93% year-over-year increase, significantly surpassing the market expectation of $1.81 billion. U.S. commercial revenue is even more impressive at $764 million, up 149% year-over-year. This is the most noteworthy figure in the report, indicating that the company is no longer relying solely on government contracts.
Adjusted EPS was $0.41, beating the expected $0.35. Adjusted free cash flow was $1.22 billion, surpassing the $1 billion mark for the first time in a single quarter. This quality of cash flow is uncommon among growth stocks.
What truly makes me reconsider the valuation is the guidance: the company raised its full-year revenue guidance by nearly $500 million at once, to a range of $8.15 billion to $8.158 billion, well above the market's original $7.7 billion expectation. The Rule of 40 score reached 145%, meaning the combination of revenue growth and profit margin achieves both high growth and top-tier profitability. This combination is indeed rare in the current AI market rally.
Karp also reiterated their moat logic: they don't sell models or charge by token, but enable customers to deploy AI on their own infrastructure while retaining full control over data and models. This AI sovereignty narrative is their core differentiation from pure model companies.
However, I remind myself that no matter how impressive the earnings report is, the current valuation already factors in a large portion of optimistic expectations. After the positive guidance upgrade is priced in, how the stock price will digest this expectation gap in the short term is a separate matter from the earnings figures themselves. Holding a position doesn't mean ignoring valuation risks; one must watch those risks and not just pick the good-sounding numbers because of holding shares. #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 $PLTR #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 Reflections on portfolio allocation during a bull market
70% are highly convicted investing
30% are speculative high-risk investments
It's very important to segment your portfolio this way; it helps you keep a clear mindset, keep funds to chase opportunities, and always maintain long-term exposure
High conviction investing should be coins you are willing to hold for several months, backed by core fundamental arguments, and have clear expiration conditions to judge when you are wrong
Things like $BTC / $ETH / $SOL / $HYPE, but the best high-conviction opportunities are those you find a mid-cap coin and actively allocate to it, as consensus forms around it. For me, the last cycle was $SOL and $COIN around 10 billion in market cap, when they weren't recognized as mainstream big coins then, but I was able to see these trading opportunities before they became mainstream and profited a lot. 2024 is the $HYPE Before consensus forms, I'm actively looking for these trading opportunities in the upcoming cycle. You may already know some coins I think might be suitable for such opportunities this cycle
But this is where you should spend the most time and effort researching and gradually build your position over time. If you have a nine-to-five job, you should dedicate part of your income specifically to exposure to risk assets this way. @X Honestly, it's a great research forum to find people with good ideas
A 30% speculative position is always crucial because it allows you to take on greater risk while gaining exposure to coins that could return the entire portfolio. This is where you spend time mining new trading pairs, buying innovative on-chain projects, using perpetual contract leverage to go long on coins, and trading meme coins with growing momentum
You'll lose at higher failure rates on these coins, but you also have a higher chance of hitting 1000x. For those with small capital portfolios, this is where you should spend most of your time. When your portfolio is low, you have to work harder than other traders in the market, positioning ahead of the on-chain narrative before it becomes consensus and finding excellent entry points
This part of your portfolio can also help you avoid FOMO, because if you've already set aside funds to follow this week's hot trends, you won't sell your high conviction positions just for that, and when your judgment is right, you'll have more capital to compound later on—a practice that is often underestimated
I keep seeing people on the timeline getting angry about their coins staying idle. I think a big part of their frustration is because they haven't diversified their portfolios this way. If you've already set aside funds to chase things that are rising, even if it's just a small amount, you won't get mad just because other coins are performing well. Every market has traders and holders. In my view, we're entering a period where holders outperform traders, but only if you're holding the right coins, and having a follow-up position nearby can protect you from the risk of tightly holding junk over gemsThis is the most dangerous place in the current area
It's not the crypto world pulling it up on its own
It's the US stock market that's strong
BTC pulled
But the Korean stock market is warning you
AI trading has already begun to diverge
$QQQ pull up to around 700
$NVDA Station near 206
U.S. tech stocks indicate risk appetite
$BTC also surged back to around 63,700
Everything seems to be going smoothly
But things are a bit different in Korea
KOSPI is still experiencing significant volatility recently
Samsung
SK Hynix
These are heavyweight AI semiconductor stocks
Once the capital hits you,
This shows the market isn't blindly buying AI
Instead, it is about re-screening assets
Structure 4 focuses on one problem
Where can money really be parked?
The first layer is still the capital anchor
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB
$SOL
$LINK
$AAVE
$PENDLE
$HYPE
This batch isn't the most exciting every day
But there is liquidity
There is a succession
There is a precedent
There are also escape routes
$BTC The most critical level now is 64,000
Hold steady at 64,000
The bulls can keep playing
Unable to stand steadily
Let's first try the reverse draw this time
The second layer is elasticity observation
$SUI
$ARB
$OP
$ONDO
$SEI
$ENA
$XMR
$KAITO
This batch is worth watching
But you can't just because US stocks are red
BTC pulled
Just go straight for 50 times
A truly strong coin
Someone responded to the backlash
Fake assertiveness
After the rush, you're left standing guard
The third layer is the Overload Table
$DOGE
$PEPE
$WIF
$BONK
$SHIB
$FLOKI
$GIGGLE
$BEAT
$LAB
$TRUMP
$MEGA
This table is the best at leveraging momentum to put on a show
BTC surged to 64,000
The group started shouting for a breakthrough
The demon coin began to rally
Someone posted a transaction worth 100,000 U
Once you get carried away,
20 times
50 times
100 times
The liquidation price is directly placed in front of the market players
Don't just look at the crypto gainers now
We also need to look at the Korean stock market
If AI semiconductors continue to be smashed
This shows that global risk appetite is not clean
US stocks are strong
BTC is strong
That doesn't mean knockoffs and local dogs have a get-out-of-jail-free card
Today, the most likely to be liquidated
Not light warehouse or spot stock
These are three types of people
Category One
$BTC Didn't hold steady at 64,000
Just those who chase with high multipliers
The second category
See $NVDA rise
Just mindlessly chasing AI knockoffs
Third category
South Korea's semiconductor industry is still shaken
Yet he was the one who rushed into the demon coin table
Don't be afraid of missing a bullish candle
I'm even more afraid of the emotions you give to US stocks
Treat it as a comprehensive bull market in the crypto world
$QQQ provides risk appetite
$NVDA is about tech hype
The Korean stock market issued a warning
$BTC is the anchor
The anchor was not firmly established
The hotter the demon coins
The lighter the position
The above is just market observation
This does not constitute investment advice
Contract leverage is extremely risky
Investing carries risks; enter with caution📊 Altcoin trading remains very active, but this no longer means prices will rise sharply.
According to CryptoQuant data, during the 2017-2018 cycle, altcoin trading volume was nearly on par with Bitcoin. By 2021, this ratio had surged 5.5 times, meaning every $1 BTC transaction corresponded to $5.5 in altcoin transactions.
In the 2025 cycle, this ratio will still hover between 2 and 3.5 times—significantly higher than during the ICO period. However, most liquidity is currently concentrated only on larger altcoins with market caps such as $ETH, $XRP, BNB, and $SOL, rather than being widely spread across the entire market.
This indicates that trading volume remains, but the "altcoin season" has changed. Capital flows have become more selective, prioritizing the prices of projects with liquidity, solid foundations, and institutional attention, rather than driving prices up across the board as in previous cycles.
#Altcoin #Bitcoin #Crypto #OnchainThere is new news on the geopolitical front: Trump said the U.S. and Iran are "ongoing" in negotiations, and even claimed this is Iran's "last chance" to reach an agreement. The market's first reaction was, of course, "positive for risk assets." But when it comes to narration, you have to see what it actually changes. The so-called 'last chance' can be understood as negotiations promising or downgrade imminent, or as an ultimatum—if talks break down, action will be taken. In the same sentence, bulls and bears each take what they need. $BTC In the recent rebound, how much of it was priced in a moderate geopolitical situation and how much was just a quick excuse for short buying and buying—honestly, it's hard to tell. My stance: Politicians' statements are signals in the noise, not certainty in signals. Don't use a single negotiation shout to decide your positions. Let's walk and see.#Palantir营收增93%, up 13% in after-hours trading.
Palantir surged 14% overnight: just how explosive was this performance? Can you still chase him?
Last night, Palantir's stock surged 14% after trading, with its stock price rising from 125 to above 142. Q2 revenue reached 1.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year surge of 93%, earnings per share of $0.41, both beating expectations.
Even more shocking, the full-year guidance was directly raised by nearly $500 million, from over $7.6 billion to $8.15 billion.
Why is the price rising so fiercely? The core is three words: commercialization.
U.S. commercial business surged 149% year-on-year to $764 million, while government business also increased by 90%. Backlogged contracts doubled to 6.24 billion, and CEO Karp bluntly declared that "strong growth could last at least another 18 months." Previously, the market worried the AI boom had passed, but not only did they not slow down, they actually accelerated.
So, can prices continue to rise in the future? Here are a few points to consider:
First, valuations are still expensive. Although Citi reiterated its buy, it lowered the target price from 225 to 200, citing "valuation multiple compression." Goldman Sachs also maintains a neutral stance, with a target price of 182.
The current price-to-price ratio for the forward is still over 30 times, far higher than the industry average of 3.96 times.
Second, there is resistance in the chip structure. The average cost of holding is around 134.8, and above 141.8 is all trapped positions. Last night, after the market closed, it hit 142, just right in this range. Next, it depends on whether they can break through with increased volume and digest the trapped chips.
How do you handle the operation?
For those with positions: hold on. The 141-143 level is key. If it breaks out, look for 150-155, but don't be greedy—taking profits in batches is safer
No position: Don't chase highs; wait for a pullback to the 135-138 range before considering entry. Set your stop loss below 128
The long-term logic hasn't changed: AI demand + sovereign AI trends + AIP platform stickiness are all present, but short-term sentiment is too strong, and chasing in makes it easy to stand guard
In short: the performance is indeed strong, but good buying opportunities always come during pullbacks, not after a sharp rise. Serenity cited Digitimes industry chain news, stating that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have already booked DRAM and HBM production capacities for 2027 by customers, and at this stage, customers can only secure 60%-70% of their original demand.
Serenity analyzed that the tight supply and demand situation in the storage market exceeded expectations, and 2027 may usher in the most tight storage period. Meanwhile, SanDisk, Samsung, and Micron have also locked in their annual NAND production capacities; Kioxia and SK Hynix are expected to finalize their capacity allocation plan in August 2026.
Previously, many market opinions predicted that mid-2027 storage would shift to oversupply, but the current supply chain shows that leading storage manufacturers' long-term capacity is basically sold out, and the tight supply-demand balance continues.
Currently, the capacity quotas for major manufacturers and downstream customers have been basically finalized, and product pricing will be adjusted as delivery approaches.
The continued expansion of AI infrastructure is driving demand for HBM and high-end DRAM, which will continue to support tight memory supply.
#财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale
$SNDK $ETH $BTC GODS fell from an ATH of $8.91 to around $0.023, a decline of 99.7%. That 67% bullish candle on July 31 was just a pump & dump under extremely low liquidity—the big players pulled up and sold off, and on August 1, it was completely unloaded. Today's 8% drop, just like the 67% yesterday, means nothing in the face of a 99.7% drop. The fundamentals haven't improved; instead, they're contracting. Parent company Immutable cut 29 game development positions and outsourced the development of Gods Unchained. The project shifted to an AI marketing platform, with Gods Unchained becoming a core source of revenue and no longer the main focus of development. Daily trading volume is only $160,000–$180,000, with liquidity slipperier than loaches. Key price levels: Resistance $0.027-$0.028 (current test zone; break out at $0.035), support at $0.023-$0.024 (recent bottom area), $0.0189 (historical low). How far this rebound can go depends on short-term capital competition under thin liquidity, not on fundamental improvement. If 0.027 cannot be passed, the rebound will end. Do you think GODS can break through 0.027? Personal market view analysis and market information compilation, not investment advice. $BTC $ETH $GODS #从降息到加息, Fed Divisions Fully Revealed #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX Close to Future, Circle Closes #Palantir营收增93%, After Hours