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📊 August 4th Live Trading Report
Starting Capital: 40U
Yesterday's Account: 358U
Current Account: Approximately 140U
Withdrawn: 50U (Recovered initial capital)
Daily Drawdown: -60.8%
Maximum Drawdown: -60.8% (Broke through 20% risk control line)
Running Days: Day 6
❌ Today's Operation Review
Today's Closed Positions (Losses):
Coin Direction Loss Return Rate Error Type
SNDK Short -114.52U -226% Fighting against the trend
OP Short -11.26U -50%+ Fighting against the trend
META Short -3.75U -38% Fighting against the trend
KORU Short -57.33U -120% Emotion-driven entry
Today's Closed Positions (Profits):
Coin Direction Profit Return Rate
WLD Long +7.14U +16%
Net Loss for the Day: Approximately -218U
🔍 Root Cause Analysis
1. Fighting against the trend — The fatal flaw of heavy SNDK position
SNDK short entry price 1294, exit price 1351, loss 114U. This was the largest loss source today. Reviewing the trade, SNDK was clearly in an uptrend on August 4th, yet I increased short positions against the trend. This violates the core principle of the live trading challenge — follow the trend, do not fight against it.
2. Emotion-driven entry — The failure of KORU
KORU short lost 57U, entry price 16.05, exit price 17.98. This trade was a revenge trade after consecutive losses, with no technical basis, purely driven by the desire to "win back". This is the most dangerous state in trading.
3. Risk control discipline failure
The previously set rule "stop trading if max drawdown reaches 20%" was completely broken today. Drawdown broke through 20% all the way to 60%, but no timely stop loss was executed. This is not a market problem, but an execution problem.
📌 Disciplines that must be corrected
1. Stop trading immediately if daily loss exceeds 20U: Today's loss was 218U, almost all previous profits were given back. If stopped at 20U loss, the outcome would be completely different.
2. Admit when direction is wrong: SNDK was in an uptrend, shorting against the trend was wrong. Cut losses and exit instead of adding positions to fight.
3. Do not open new positions after consecutive losses: After losses expanded today, multiple ineffective trades like KORU were opened, purely emotion-driven.
4. Pause trading at 20% drawdown: Should have stopped when account dropped from 358U to 286U (-20%), not continued down to 140U.
💡 Net Asset Attribution Analysis
From 358U down to 140U, loss of 218U mainly from:
· SNDK fighting against the trend: -114U (52%)
· KORU emotion-driven entry: -57U (26%)
· Other stop loss trades combined: -47U (22%)
Current Account Status:
· Total assets: 140U
· Withdrawn: 50U (Safety cushion still intact)
· Total net value (including withdrawn): 190U
· Relative to starting capital 40U: Still up 150U (+375%)
Although today's drawdown was huge, the overall account remains profitable. This is the only good news.
📌 Next Phase Plan
1. Pause trading and calmly review: No new positions today, first manage existing positions
2. Strictly enforce risk control: Single loss not exceeding 5% of principal
3. Wait for confirmed signals: Only act when the market gives clear directional signals
4. Protect principal first: Profits can be given back, principal must be preserved
Lesson Summary:
Today I lost not money, but discipline. The profits accumulated over the first 5 days were wiped out by 60% in one day. This is not the market's fault, it's mine. Emotion-driven trading, fighting against the trend, ignoring risk control — these three errors combined, no account can withstand.
The first rule of trading: survive first, then talk about profits. $ETH After consolidating at a high level for 3.4 days with no movement at all, the rally is weak but weak. What should retail investors do?
Mainstream hasn't been following US stocks much these past two days, while Ethereum has been oscillating between 1845 and 1880. From what I see, the market shows no signs of a strong breakout; instead, it seems more like a range induced bulls! In the short term, I am mainly bearish; the bearish trend will always persist
In the short term, Ethereum's minor support is near 1850. If the US market opens tonight and continues to decline, the price is very likely to reach around 1820–1800. Therefore, for those seeking stability, I personally suggest placing orders, with the 1880 target primarily targeting 1845! #SpaceX首份财报超预期, unlocking remains a key variable Is ETH staking about to be "hit on the brakes"? EIP-8363 ignites the Ethereum monetary policy debate
Ethereum France Chairman Jerome de Tychey posted on X that he and researchers such as Justin Drake submitted a "Tapered Issuance Burn" proposal.
The tweet initially referred to it as EIP-8361, but after EIP editing and renumbering, it has now been officially reclassified as EIP-8363.
Note that the proposal is still under public review, has not yet been merged, and has not been confirmed to include any Ethereum upgrades.
The proposal states that Ethereum's staking rate surpassed one-third of total supply in April 2026, and the current issuance curve means that even with all ETH staked, the annualized yield remains around 1.5%, indicating that staking growth lacks a "stop switch."
According to their calculations, if validators enter the queue and continue to saturate, by early 2028, staking could exceed 70 million ETH, accounting for more than 55% of the supply.
EIP-8363's solution is to gradually deduct and burn part of the validator consensus layer rewards based on the total network staking rate.
The burn ratio will increase with the staking rate, reaching 100% when the staked amount approaches 50% of the total supply, reducing net staking yield to zero and allowing the market to seek balance below 50%.
The yield adjustment plan is completed over 18 months, and with the upgrade preparation period, validators may have about two years to adapt.
The logic behind this proposal's positive effect on ETH's price is very straightforward: net issuance will decrease, making supply growth more controllable; combined with EIP-1559 transaction fee burns and blob fee burns, ETH is more likely to enter a state of negative supply growth.
Holders are also not forced to stake to resist additional issuance, and native ETH's monetary attributes may be strengthened compared to LSTs and other staking derivatives.
If the market views this as Ethereum's active constraint on issuance, it may help increase ETH's scarcity premium in the long run.
But the impact is not one-sided.
The decline in staking yields may weaken staking demand; after some validators exit, more ETH will re-enter the circulating market.
Additionally, LSTs, restaking, and DeFi products relying on staking yields may also be repriced, which could actually bring selling pressure and volatility in the short term.
After the change in revenue structure, the proportion of MEV and execution layer revenue has increased, potentially giving professional institutions a relative advantage.
In fact, the real disagreement centers on cybersecurity!
Supporters believe that more staking is not necessarily safer; continuous issuance will squeeze independent stakers first through tax costs and dilution, ultimately concentrating chips in custodians and large service providers.
Opponents worry that cutting the base reward might first eliminate low-profit independent nodes, instead accelerating validator concentration and reducing the economic costs required to attack the network.
Some community members also questioned why the decision to "issue first then burn" instead of directly reducing issuance was made, and whether the 50% target itself was still artificially set.
The proposal was made public less than 48 hours before the Hegotá upgrade proposal deadline, sparking procedural controversy.
The proposers responded that including the application for discussion does not equate to confirmation of adoption, and there are still several months of review time to follow. Overall, if EIP-8363 is approved, it could benefit the ETH supply narrative in the long term, but its impact on staking demand, validator structure, and short-term liquidity remains highly uncertain.
EIP-8363 is expected to continue sparking a public debate about ETH's future monetary attributes.#特朗普代币遭参议员要求调查 $TRUMP
Political risk is becoming the biggest variable for MEME coins
Democratic Senators Warren and Blumenthal are calling for the SEC to investigate Trump tokens, which does not mean the project has already been illegal or that the SEC has filed an investigation, but rather refocuses the market back to sensitive issues such as conflicts of interest, regulatory independence, and politicians issuing crypto assets.
From a market perspective, Nansen data shows that as of the end of June, about 989,000 accounts had accumulated losses of $3.81 billion, while Trump-affiliated entities earned about $636 million in revenue. This huge profit gap easily draws attention from the market and regulators. Even if no violations are ultimately found, such incidents may weaken some investors' confidence in political concept coins and increase market volatility.
For the entire crypto market, this event has more impact on the MEME coin and political concept coin sectors, with relatively limited direct impact on mainstream assets like BTC and ETH. However, if the SEC subsequently launches a formal investigation or introduces stricter regulatory frameworks targeting celebrities and politicians issuing tokens, related sectors could see a valuation reshaping and short-term risk aversion may intensify.
From a trader's perspective, such news is a typical regulatory sentiment event. In the short term, the TRUMP token can experience sharp fluctuations, even experiencing high volatility and high turnover; The medium- to long-term trend depends on whether the investigation progresses substantially, changes in the U.S. political environment, and Trump's personal influence. For ordinary investors, the price of political concept coins is often influenced much more by news, public opinion, and election cycles than by fundamentals. When participating, it is even more important to control positions and strictly set stop-losses to avoid misinterpreting sentiment hotspots as long-term investment logic.$LUNC, one of the most tragic names in crypto history. Its predecessor was LUNA. Back when Terra collapsed, its market value of tens of billions was wiped out overnight, and countless wallets became digital tombstones. After the crash, some community members refused to give up, keeping the old chain and renaming it LUNC. From then on, they lived in the narrative of "we have to recover the token price through burning," and lived for several years. Today, it is falling again. The reason is simple: the previous wave of hype fueled by community sentiment is rapidly fading. Burn, burn, just destroy more and more destroy The LUNC community's favorite slogan is "Burn." It seems that as long as coins are kept burning and the supply decreases, the price will inevitably rise. This logic sounds pleasing but overlooks the most crucial question: what fuel is being burned? Is it genuine protocol income, or is it the community's own excitement and self-generated excitement? The problem with LUNC is that it has no substantial business behind it. No DeFi protocol generates fees, no on-chain applications attract users, and no institutions use it for payments. Its destruction is a castle in the air built on community sentiment. When emotions are high, everyone gathers to stir things up, with the candlestick flashing a bit; When sentiment fades, people disperse, selling pressure surges back in, and the price returns to its starting point. Each pulse is like a firework—light up once, then the night sky darkens. Burning doesn't mean price increases—this is a harsh math problem. Many people are easily drawn in by the word "burn" and jump in, thinking that fewer coins mean they must be worthless. But the reality is: burning reduces supply,【美股新高、国债异动、油价暴跌——BTC在矛盾信号里等方向】
BTC仍在63300附近横着，八月开局一周，价格从65000上方跌到62300附近止跌，目前勉强站回63000关口，但力度很弱。过去24小时从最低62369反弹到63300一线，多头在守，但没有反攻的底气。
今晚美股开盘，三大指数集体走高，道指收涨1.71%，标普500涨1.79%，双双创出收盘历史新高。纳指涨2.59%，费城半导体指数更是狂飙6.55%，ARM暴涨超17%，英特尔、闪迪涨超10%。
表面光鲜，但盘面上有个值得注意的细节。
**油价暴跌了6%，直接触及7月13日以来最低水平。** 导火索是美伊谈判推进的消息——贝森特和卡塔尔代表放风，说美伊接近达成协议，停火可能在即。通胀预期一降温，美债收益率全线下行4-6个基点，2年期美债收益率直接跌到7月20日以来最低。
但BTC没怎么涨。63300，连64000都没摸到。
这就很有意思了。油价跌了6%，美股创了新高，风险资产一片欢腾，唯独BTC在横盘。市场对地缘缓和的利好反应钝化——要么是流动性不够，要么是更大级别的资金结构出了问题。
**美债那边还在出问题。** 30年期美债收益率一度飙到5.27%，2007年以来最高。美联储主席沃什提出的减少议息会议的提议，被市场解读为政策透明度在倒退，期限溢价直接上了一层楼。美联储抗通胀的信誉正在被市场质疑——投资者开始用真金白银表达对长期通胀和政策路径的不信任。
堪萨斯联储主席施密德周二直接说：当前利率还不够高，需要更紧缩的政策。费城联储主席保尔森也放话：如果核心通胀居高不下，就得重新校准货币政策。
这就是当前盘面的症结——油价跌了，但美联储不敢松口；美股涨了，但债市在崩；BTC在中间，方向模糊。
**AIX的策略怎么跑？**
今晚美股开盘前，AIX扫盘给出的结论是：4小时级别仍然偏空，但RSI到40附近有初步超卖迹象。策略判断——短期看64000-64200的压力是否能被重新有效站上，如BTC反弹触及64000-64200并且量能萎缩，做空；如价格跌破62000-62300支撑区间，等待放量止跌信号再评估是否左侧试多。
它不会在这个位置追多。油价暴跌的消息它吃进去了，但盘面结构没给出做多信号之前，AI系统的逻辑是“等”——不是每个利好都会变成买盘。
**我的操作方向**
62900-63100是第一道支撑，64100-64300是第一道阻力。50日均线在63400附近，成了当前最核心的短期锚点。
如果BTC反弹到64000-64200区域遇阻缩量，轻仓短空，止损64800，目标63000-62500。如果价格再次回踩62300-62500企稳，出现放量止跌K线，轻仓接多，止损61800，目标64000-64500。
如果价格继续在62500-64000之间横着，不操作，让AIX帮我盯着。方向不明的时候，动得越少，活得越久。Fake bull markets have just begun to spread, but the first batch of protective stocks has already been swept back to break even: the structure is improving, but sustainability has yet to catch up.
Traderbamp is optimistic about the expansion after $XPL recovers the range, entering at the spot price, 0.725 failing, first targeting 0.84; TraderGauls' $ZEC has already been pocketed and pushed into risk-free positions, then the remaining positions are withdrawn at break-even and $BTC test orders also hit stop loss. Caleb is more restrained with $HYPE and won't trade until the model is clear.
Overall judgment: This is not a confirmation of the altcoin season, but rather a tentative, probing strength of a few structural coins. If $BTC cannot hold above the previous 65.4K confirmation level, counterfeit long positions should still be prioritized for protection; Only when mainstream coins stabilize with volume increase can $XPL's expansion have a solid foundation for sustainability. All of the above plans lack official catalysts and are not listed as opportunities in this round.
Will you lock in profits first, or wait for mainstream coins to confirm this?
These are for the purposes of opinion and information compilation only and do not constitute investment advice#财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future?
SpaceX Foundation:
Rocket Company ❎
Starlink✅
SpaceX's financial report proves two things:
First, Starlink has grown into a real and robust cash flow machine
Second, the market's pricing of SpaceX has long gone beyond rockets and satellite internet, betting on it to become a super platform spanning communications, AI computing power, and space infrastructure.
Musk's proposal to achieve $1 trillion in revenue by 2030 can be seen as an extremely optimistic long-term roadmap
Many still think of SpaceX as a commercial rocket company, but the financial data presents a different picture: the Connectivity business contributed about 55% of revenue this quarter and is currently the company's clearest profit engine.
As of Q2 2026, Starlink had approximately 12 million subscribers, doubling compared to the same period last year. It has evolved from a high-risk space project into a global communications network with ongoing subscription revenue.
⭐️Starlink's advantage comes from SpaceX's vertical integration
However, user growth does not equal revenue growth proportionally.
The prospectus shows that Starlink's monthly ARPU will drop from $86 in Q1 2025 to $66 in Q1 2026, mainly due to international expansion and increased low-cost packages. In other words, Starlink is currently following a strategy of "reducing per-customer revenue and expanding user base."
Three key indicators should be closely monitored going forward:
· Can user growth continue to outpace ARPU decline?
· Can corporate, aviation, shipping, and government clients improve overall revenue quality?
· Whether satellite depreciation, terminal subsidies, and network maintenance costs can decrease as scale expands.
⚠️AI business is both a growth driver and the biggest risk
AI business revenue reached $2.56 billion this quarter, a year-on-year increase of 247%, marking the most impressive growth rate in this financial report. However, SpaceX invested about $15.8 billion in AI infrastructure during the same period, increasing its computing power to 1.4 gigawatts.
This has created the most important current contradiction: the AI business has indeed started generating revenue rapidly, but the scale of investment far exceeds current revenue, and the business model is still in a phase of heavy asset expansion.
Directions to focus on next:
· Proportion of Starlink subscriber revenue, ARPU, and enterprise customers
· Operating profit margin for the Connectivity business
· AI revenue, signed contracts, computing power utilization, and AI capital expenditure
· The gap between operating cash flow and capital expenditures
· Starship testing, reusability, and commercial launch progress
· Whether there is a verifiable and sustained decrease in the cost per kilogram of orbital entry
· Cost allocation methods for related-party transactions and different business activitiesSanDisk SNDK｜Comprehensive Analysis of the Impact of the After-Hours Earnings Report on 8.6 Information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. U.S. stock earnings reports are highly volatile, and the options market prices in a two-way volatility of about 13% for this earnings report. Event: Q4 fiscal year 2026 earnings report released after market close on August 5 Eastern Time (early morning August 6 Beijing Time). 1. Market Consensus Expectations 1. Company official guidance: revenue $7.75-8.25 billion; EPS $30-33 2. Wall Street consensus: revenue $8.39 billion, EPS $33.01, a significant quarter-over-quarter increase 3. Core expectation anchors • Enterprise-level AI-SSD revenue growth rate, progress on $42 billion long-term orders • Whether gross margin can remain high; NAND flash price trends • Next quarter's earnings guidance is far more important than this quarter's earnings figures; the market has already priced in high growth and is watching whether the favorable conditions can continue Current background: July saw a maximum single-month drawdown close to 40%, a mid-level correction after a sharp rise; recent early rebound with capital betting on earnings beating expectations; U.S. Treasury yields remain high, growth stock valuation pressure persists. 2. Three Major Scenario Simulations (Market Reaction After Earnings) Scenario ①: Revenue and EPS both exceed expectations + next quarter guidance raised [Positive] • Conditions: revenue > $8.5 billion, EPS > $34, and next quarter revenue/gross margin guidance raised; data center business continues triple-digit quarter-over-quarter growth. • Market: after-hours surge, with a chance to test the 1520-1580 resistance zone; driving the storage sector ($PUMP Shanhe bro will analyze this knockoff demon coin for you
The platform token PUMP has real revenue backing but faces ongoing selling pressure from $125 million in unlocks and buyback halvings, creating significant short-term uncertainty
Meme coins on the platform are extremely low-win PVP games, with over 98% of them dropping to zero, making them suitable for high-risk speculation and definitely not worth holding for medium to long term
New Meme coins are used like lotteries, PUMP focuses on income and unlocking data—neither is suitable for heavy, long-term investments, only suitable for players with strong risk tolerance and small position strategies
A large number of tokens will be unlocked on August 12. In the short term, bulls have the advantage but lack confidence: the price rose nearly 9%, but the funding rate is only 0.01%, indicating bulls are unwilling to pay high premium positions and have weak willingness to chase gains.
Volume has not followed up, questionable gains: open interest has not expanded with price increases; this rebound feels more like short closing and covering rather than new funds actively entering the market
Key level to watch at 0.0025: If a breakout occurs on increased volume, the short-term bullish trend will be confirmed; if volume shrinks, stagnation, or pullback, beware of bullish traps
In the short term, cautiously lean towards bullish stocks, but it is not advisable to chase highs. Prioritize observing the long-short battle results near 0.0025 before making decisions.
The rebound is real, but its sustainability depends on volume—if 0.0025 can't be cleared, it's all for nothing
$BEAT #AMD财报超预期, has growth been overdrawn? Here's the conclusion: SpaceX's financial report has almost no flaws in terms of performance. But on August 6, when 911.5 million shares were unlocked and crashed down, the performance might not have mattered at all; what mattered was whether the market had enough money to catch these chips.
Let's start with performance. Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, up 92% year-on-year, Starlink users doubled to 12 million, and AI business reached $2.561 billion in a single quarter—3.5 times the same period last year. Operating loss narrowed from $970 million to $143 million, with adjusted EBITDA at $3.5 billion, up 191% year-over-year. Starlink's connectivity business alone is already a profitable venture, with operating profit of $1.656 billion, a year-on-year increase of 79%.
Honestly, after reading this financial report yesterday, my first reaction was that this company is growing faster than I expected. Although Starlink's average monthly ARPU dropped from $85 last year to $66, this is the price of international expansion. The doubling of its user base fully offset the drop in unit price. Although the AI unit is still losing (1.257 billion yuan in a single quarter), the loss narrowed by 49% quarter-on-quarter, indicating that scale effects are taking effect.
At this point, if you only look at the earnings report, you might think SPCX's current $125 stock price is seriously undervalued—after all, the IPO price was $135, and the peak was $201. The logic is clear: rapid performance growth, narrowing losses, Starmind's partnership with NVIDIA has opened up space AI possibilities—just buy it.
But I want to say something uncomfortable.
The day after tomorrow, August 6, 911.5 million restricted shares will be unlocked. The holders of this batch of stocks are employees and early investors, whose cost prices are mostly in the single digits or even lower. Currently, the public float of SPCXs accounts for only about 5% of the total share capital. Once these unlocked shares enter the market, the float can easily double in value.
Facebook 2012 is the most classic example. The listing price was $38, and on the day the first batch of 271 million shares was unlocked, it plummeted to $19.88, a cut in half. Afterwards, the restrictions were lifted in batches in October and November, continuing to face pressure. And was Facebook's fundamentals poor at the time? Not bad, but the story of monetizing on mobile platforms has yet to be fully proven.
SpaceX's current situation is similar: no one doubts high growth, but with $18.4 billion in quarterly capital expenditure, the AI business still burning cash, and the stock price having pulled back nearly 40% from its peak—under this combination, do early holders with almost zero cost price have the incentive to cash out some profits at the $125 level? The answer is almost certain.
But Facebook's story has a second half—those who survived the lock-up period later made 40 times their profits. The unlocking selling pressure is a one-time supply shock, not a fundamental deterioration. For those who truly believe in SpaceX's long-term value, the pit created by the lock-up unlock could actually be a better entry price.
Yesterday, I watched the after-hours SPCX drop another 3% and wanted to add more, but ultimately held back. My judgment is to wait until August 6, the day the lock-up is lifted, to see the trading volume—if the volume surges to 100-110 but doesn't break through, that's where I really want to act. If volume shrinks on the day of the lock-up, it indicates that the major shareholder chooses to keep holding, which speaks even more of the story than any financial report.
The above is my current bias, but I have left myself a 30% margin for error. If the price falls below $100 within two trading days after the lock-up is lifted and shows no signs of stabilization, I would think my judgment of the selling pressure scale is overly optimistic and should go straight for a stop-loss view.
#财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future? 市场的“减震器”快失效了
这是目前油价上涨最硬的逻辑。之前油价没涨上天，是因为有战略储备释放、库存消耗等缓冲机制在顶着。但现在，美国的战略石油储备已经降到了1983年以来的最低水平（约3.1亿桶），全球商业库存也在持续下降。这意味着市场应对新一轮供应冲击的容错空间已经非常小了，任何风吹草动都会直接反映在价格上。
航运通道持续承压
除了霍尔木兹海峡，红海和曼德海峡的航运安全也面临威胁。胡塞武装的封锁行动导致红海满载油轮的运力下降了22%，沙特等产油国的替代运输路线也受阻。三条能源咽喉要道同时承压，让供应中断的风险急剧上升。 #闪迪财报前夕, HBF and storage shortages spark heated discussion. SanDisk will release its full-year and fourth-quarter financial reports after the market closes on August 6. Currently, the market is focused on two main themes: the supply and demand shortage of AI high-bandwidth storage HBM, and the company's prospects for the implementation of its self-developed HBF technology, with the divergence between bulls and bears continuing to widen.
On the industry side, global HBM capacity has long been locked in orders by cloud companies like NVIDIA and Microsoft. Samsung and SK Hynix prioritize advanced production lines for high-margin HBM, squeezing out general-purpose NAND flash capacity. Coupled with cautious expansions by major manufacturers, NAND spot prices continue to rise, and the industry's shortage cycle will last at least until 2027. SanDisk has deeply tied itself to the AI inference market through enterprise-grade SSDs and self-developed HBF caching solutions, signing $42 billion long-term supply agreements to lock in medium- and long-term revenue. Last quarter, data center business revenue surged 645% year-on-year, with gross margin exceeding 78%, becoming the core pillar of performance.
However, there are obvious negative concerns in the market. In July, the storage sector collectively pulled back, and SanDisk pulled back sharply from its high. The market is concerned about two major risks: first, the previous stock price gains have exhausted the positive factors of price increases, creating selling pressure that "earnings will be realized as soon as they land." Second, HBM capacity is concentrated in Korean factories, and SanDisk's HBF commercialization progress falls short of expectations, potentially weakening valuation logic.
Short-term market trends depend entirely on financial guidance: if the full-year data center business is raised and HBF implementation progress exceeds expectations, stock prices are likely to recover; Conversely, if the growth rate of long-term contracts slows and sector sentiment weakens, the market will continue to fluctuate downward. The logic of medium- and long-term storage shortages remains unchanged, but short-term capital competition intensifies, and volatility risks are relatively high. $BTC $ETH $SNDK $SPCX The best time to enter after US stock market hours is the best!!
Yesterday's earnings performance clearly exceeded market expectations, and after hours, it was quickly boosted by positive news. However, prices then surged and then retreated, and market sentiment began to shift to caution.
The main reasons for the decline are several aspects:
First, AI-related capital support continues to expand, the market is beginning to reassess the return cycle behind high investment, and institutional risk appetite has declined;
Second, there was large-scale unlocking pressure after today's market close, but currently, the market lacks sufficient funds to take on shares, and supply-demand imbalances have increased selling pressure;
Third, a large amount of capital preemptively laying the grounds for financial reports, and after positive news materialized, profit-taking was concentrated and released, creating short-term selling pressure.
At present, the positive news from the earnings report has been partially priced in by the market in advance, with the short-term focus on the strength of capital support. If after-hours selling pressure continues to intensify, it is possible that the price will further pull back and test the key support at $110.
$ETH $SNDK
#财报观察员: Mixed results, the lifting of restrictions is approaching! What do you think about SpaceX's future?
#SpaceX首份财报超预期, unlocking remains a key variable SanDisk is set to release its earnings report tonight, but its stock price fell 47% in July.
This is quite an interesting matter. Performance expectations are indeed rising, with market expectations for Q4 revenue at $8.39 billion, more than doubling year-on-year. But the fact that the stock price dropped so much early shows everyone knows that good performance is expected, but poor performance is the problem.
This is actually a rule Palantir just verified a few days ago: the current season's numbers are just tickets, and the guidelines set prices. How much you earned in the past three months doesn't matter; what matters is how much you think you'll earn next.
SanDisk's current situation is quite delicate. The company's Q4 guidance is revenue of 7.75 to 8.25 billion yuan, with market expectations of 8.39 billion yuan, which is higher than the upper limit of the guidance. What does this mean? This means that if the financial report only aligns with the company's own guidance, market expectations may be interpreted as negative.
Another concern for the market is the cycle curse of storage stocks. The memory chip industry has always been a cycle of explosive rises and falls—shortages, price hikes, overcapacity, and collapses. This scenario has been playing for over a decade. SanDisk has risen 1600% since its IPO, and has risen another 400% this year. The profitable position is too thick, so it's perfectly normal for some people to want to exit.
But this time, one variable is different from before—is AI-driven demand structural? SanDisk itself stated that data centers will replace the mobile market for the first time to become the largest segment of NAND, and expect demand to outpace supply until the end of 2026. If this is true, then storage stocks shouldn't be priced according to cyclical stocks. The July crash is actually a gamble on this, and the market is asking: Is this time really different?
Financial reports are certainly important, but what matters more is management's judgment about the future. If the guidance remains strong or even raises upward, it means the storage sector's prosperity hasn't peaked yet, and the stock price is likely to stabilize. If guidance becomes conservative, the market will feel the cycle is peaking, and the 47% decline may not be the bottom yet.
Let's first review tonight's earnings report and guidance before deciding on the next step. $SNDK $BICO $SPCX #财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future? Derivatives Capital Flow vs. Spot Demand: Who Is Leading This Rebound?
$ADA What makes this rally unique is that inflows into derivatives have been stronger than spot demand.
Derivatives data:
· $ADA Futures have seen positive capital inflows over the most recent 3-day, 5-day, and 7-day cycles
· The total for 7 days was about $41.8 million
· Trading on Bybit and OKX is also quite active, and market demand is not concentrated on a single platform
Spot data:
· 24-hour trading volume up over 33%
· Open interest on multiple exchanges has risen—usually indicating new capital inflows rather than stock turnover
· Binance and OKX both have long-short account ratios above 1, with position structures slightly skewed toward bulls
📌 Interpretation:
Sustained positive capital inflows into the derivatives market indicate that institutional or professional traders are going long on ADAs through the futures market, rather than just buying spot trades. This "futures-led" upward structure not only shows that the capital is more professional, but also means that if you start closing out your positions, the pullback could be quite severe.
The overall distribution of positions among leading traders remains fairly balanced, indicating the market has not yet entered the FOMO phase—there may still be room for gains. 💹 $BTC #财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future? #SpaceX首份财报超预期, unlocking remains a key variable #AMD财报超预期 has growth been overdrawn? Whales bought up 240 million ADA in five days: Who is buying like crazy?
This is ADA's most significant on-chain signal right now—large Cardano addresses added over 240 million ADA in five days. At $0.19 per coin, this increase amounts to about $46 million.
More macro whale data:
· The whale group holding 100,000–100 million ADA has accumulated 454.7 million ADA holdings in the past two months
· The total holdings reached 25.6 billion ADA, the highest since 2023
· Wallets with over ten million tokens control 67.5% of the total circulating supply, with token concentration continuing to rise
· The whale holding steadily rose to 5.69 billion ADA, indicating continuous accumulation rather than isolated buying
· In the past seven days, large-holder holders have accumulated over 30 million ADA
📌 Important caveat (reminder):
Santiment data cited by Ali Martinez shows an increase in the balance of large address groups. However, this does not reveal whether these tokens were purchased on the open market, withdrawn from exchanges, or only transferred between relevant wallets. Custody transfers and exchange reorganization of holdings may also change address balances without creating new demand.
However, combined with the following facts:
1. Price increases by about 20% in tandem
2. Continuous positive inflows into derivatives funds (7-day total: approximately $41.8 million)
3. Expansion of exchange contract trading volume
The likelihood of a genuine purchase is higher. If the increased holdings come from purchases and then transferred to long-term storage, the available $ADA will decrease, further tightening supply. 📦 $BTC #财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future? #SpaceX首份财报超预期, unlocking remains a key variable #AMD财报超预期 has growth been overdrawn? #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？
An earnings report that exceeded expectations but ultimately did not lead to a price increase.
This precisely indicates that the market's trading focus has shifted.
SpaceX released its first earnings report since going public, with core data such as revenue, AI business growth, and narrowed losses all beating market expectations. However, the stock price did not continue its strength after hours and instead declined. This shows that capital attention is no longer solely on the earnings themselves.
What truly causes market hesitation are the two upcoming variables.
One is AI investment. Although the AI business performed impressively, the company also stated it will maintain high capital expenditures in the future, which will inevitably impact short-term profit margins. Long-term investors see growth potential, but short-term funds see cost pressure.
The other, and more immediate pressure, is the unlocking of approximately 911.5 million shares on August 6. Unlocking does not necessarily mean selling, but it implies a significant increase in potential supply. The market often prices in this risk in advance, so even with an earnings beat, it is difficult to immediately push the stock price higher.
From a trading perspective, I believe the market is no longer trading the earnings report but trading expectations.
If the actual selling pressure after unlocking is not as severe as the market fears, a "bad news priced in" recovery may occur; but if early shareholders concentrate on cashing out, short-term volatility is likely to continue increasing.
Earnings determine long-term value, while capital flow determines short-term price.
At least for SpaceX now, the latter is the market's main focus in the coming days. @OKX星球 标普500涨到历史新高！$BTC 什么时候可以突破啊？
昨晚美股确实很强啊。
#标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高
标普500上涨1.8%，收在7736.52点，历史上第一次站上7700点；道指涨1.7%，纳指涨2.6%，三大指数一起走强。
但这次上涨，应该是有原因的。
一边是油价回落，市场对通胀的担心暂时降了一些；另一边是财报继续给力。根据FactSet统计，目前已经公布财报的标普500公司，整体每股收益同比增长约47%。
说白了，市场现在的想法是，利率高归高，只要公司还能赚钱，股票就还能买。
这也是纳指涨得最猛的原因。AI、芯片和大型科技股仍然是资金最愿意抱的方向。道指也创了新高，说明这次不完全是几只科技股硬拉，但要说全面牛市，我觉得还是早了点。
因为美债收益率仍在高位，后面还有就业和服务业数据。数据太强，加息预期会回来；数据太弱，市场又要担心经济放缓。现在这个位置，稍微有一个数字不顺眼，获利盘就可能先跑。
对币圈来说，昨晚的盘面更值得琢磨。
标普已经突破历史新高，BTC却还在64,000美元附近磨，连65,400美元的压力都没碰过去。ETH、SOL也没有明显跟上。
这说明资金目前更相信美股的盈利，而不是加密市场的弹性。钱并没有全面涌向风险资产，只是先去了最有业绩支撑的地方。
所以标普站上7700当然算利好，但别急着直接套用成“BTC马上补涨”。
先看标普能不能守住7700点，再看BTC能不能突破65,400美元。如果美股继续创新高，BTC还是原地不动，那就不是蓄力，而是资金压根没选币圈。
反过来，如果BTC放量站上65,400美元，这种落后反而可能变成补涨空间。
现在美股已经交卷了，接下来轮到BTC证明自己。#标普500首次站上7700点, setting a new all-time high
Overnight, US stocks surged across the board, with the S&P 500 breaking through the 7,700-point mark and closing at 7,736.52, up 1.79% for the day, officially setting a new all-time closing high; The Dow also surpassed 54,000 points for the first time, and the Nasdaq surged 2.59% in a single day. The deep correction pit that was just hit in July was fully recovered in just four trading days, with market sentiment reversing far faster than expected.
Let's start with the core closing data:
- S&P 500: Up 136.02 points, up 1.79%, closing at 7736.52, surpassing 7700 for the first time in history
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Up 907.47 points, up 1.71%, closed at 54,085.88, breaking above 54,000 for the first time
- Nasdaq Composite Index: Up 671.10 points, up 2.59%, closing at 26,584.99 points
- Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: Surged 6.55% in a single day, rebounding for the fourth consecutive trading day; The index has pulled back over 20% in July, with a maximum drawdown close to 29%, currently in an oversold recovery phase
This rally is not just sentiment hype, but the result of three major positive factors resonating:
First, geopolitical sentiment has significantly eased, and a sharp drop in oil prices has suppressed inflation expectations.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent stated that the U.S. and Iran are expected to reach an agreement on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours; Iran also confirmed positive progress in negotiations with Oman on navigation technology. As a result, international oil prices plunged in a single day, with WTI crude down 5.7% and Brent crude down 5.3%, both falling below the $80 mark. The plunge in oil prices directly suppressed inflation expectations, and the market's pricing in a Fed rate hike in September quickly declined. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.188%, the lowest since July 20, easing valuation pressure on risk assets.
Second, the overall earnings season showed strong performance, with earnings supporting fundamentals.
According to the latest statistics from FactSet, over 60% of S&P 500 constituent stocks have disclosed their Q2 earnings reports, with 86% of companies exceeding market expectations in EPS, a proportion higher than the five-year average of 78%, marking the highest exceeding ratio since Q2 2021.
At the individual stock level, the catalyst was clear: Palantir's Q2 revenue was $1.94 billion, a year-on-year increase of 93%, with its full-year revenue guidance raised to over $8.15 billion, and after hours, it surged nearly 15%; Industrial leader Caterpillar's quarterly revenue surpassed $20 billion for the first time, reaching $20.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24%. Orders across all three major business segments strengthened, becoming the core driving force behind the Dow's rise.
Third, the semiconductor sector rebounded violently, driving a recovery in sentiment among growth stocks.
Storage and chips surged across the board, with SanDisk and Intel rising over 10%, while Micron and AMD rose over 7%. On one hand, the implementation of HBF industry standards opens up long-term growth potential for AI storage; On the other hand, after a deep sector adjustment in July, funds leveraged positive earnings and a rebound in risk appetite to concentrate and cover, forming a double strike of oversold recovery + fundamental catalysts.
Finally, let's talk about something practical
The core driver of this rally is the easing of rate hike expectations due to falling oil prices, combined with sentiment recovery after overselling, rather than a fundamental leap in scale. Middle East negotiations have always been repetitive; once subsequent news turns suspicious, oil prices could rebound at any time, and market sentiment shifts rapidly. Moreover, sector differentiation is very obvious, with heavyweights and technology leading the gains, while most small and mid-cap stocks have limited gains. Timing the wrong time can easily profit from the index rather than profit.
For us, the most direct effect of new highs in US stocks is to stabilize global risk appetite, at least preventing a full-market crash in US stocks. However, the impact on other assets is limited, and more of it serves as emotional support.
Do you think this new high marks the starting point of a new round of gains, or a rebound during a decline?
Personal analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
$MU 闪迪SNDK｜规避财报冲高‑回落全套思路
极度容易出现多空双杀
为什么今晚极易上演冲高回落
1. 市场早已透支利好：此前AI存储涨价、长期供货协议的利好已经提前被资金炒作，现在市场预期值拉满；就算财报营收、毛利率达标，只要四季度指引达不到最乐观标准，就容易出现「买预期，卖事实」。
2. 存储芯片属于强周期品类，资金最忌惮闪存后续增产、NAND现货价格承压、超高毛利率难以长久维系，利好冲高之后获利盘集中出逃。
3. 美股AI板块整体情绪偏弱，昨夜AMD、SPCX财报之后盘后跳水，科技股风险偏好降温，很容易带动存储板块跟风承压。
4. 盘后前15分钟是机构高频交易时段，短线冲高多为程序化诱多，随后迎来抛压兑现。
实操风控方案，防止冲高回落亏损
1、财报之前
1. 压低总仓位，禁止重仓赌财报；财报夜波动极大，闪迪单次震荡幅度能够抵达10%‑18%。
2. 已有持仓：提前分批减仓30%~50%，锁定一部分利润，剩下底仓用来博弈消息。
2、财报出炉之后，分三种行情应对
1. 业绩超预期、盘后快速冲高
不要追涨；冲高之后观察5‑15分钟成交量。冲高放量滞涨、上涨乏力，直接减仓大半，防备短线资金集体止盈引发回落。
重点查看四季度营收指引、NAND闪存定价预期、AI服务器存储订单展望，漂亮的财报正文不及保守的前瞻指引杀伤力大。
2. 财报符合市场平均预期
属于利好落地，冲高回落概率最高，逢反弹分批离场。
3. 业绩不及预期直接低开下行
不要低位急于抄底；先观望30分钟企稳状态，存储周期股一旦情绪走坏，下跌持续性很强。
3、硬性交易纪律
1. 盘后刚出财报的前十五分钟拒绝市价单，行情点差巨大很容易出现糟糕成交价；
2. 设置好止损，一旦冲高之后回落跌破关键支撑位果断离场；
3. 今晚同步紧盯SPCX解禁情绪、光模块禁令消息、中东霍尔木兹海峡协议带动的大宗商品情绪，外部环境会传导至半导体板块。
#闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 $SNDK 懂币猫$BTC $ETH ##$实盘交易员日记：BTC is oscillating upward, watch for a range breakout
$BTC
[Market Overview]
The latest price is 64,181 USDT, up 0.94% in the past 24 hours, with a range of 63,450–64,543 USDT and a trading volume of 371 million USDT.
[Structural Analysis]
The short-term structure is bullish, but caution is needed regarding the risk of stagflation at high levels.
[Key Locations]
Watch the intraday high near 64,543 above; a successful breakout could open further upside potential; Support below is to watch the intraday low near 63,450; a break below could trigger a pullback. The current price is in the middle of the range, so the direction selection requires confirmation of a breakout.
[Follow-up Observation]
• If the support near 63,450 USDT holds, observe whether the structure can recover.
• If the resistance near 64,543 USDT is broken, confirm whether upward momentum will continue.
This is for market review purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.#贝莱德推两只基金, dedicated to stablecoin reserves
$CORE
Today, when I saw on-chain data, I saw that smart money was on the meme net inflow leaderboard, with a player like CATE lying down 39.9% in a single day, and then Michael Burry extended his short position on Nvidia directly to 2027.
When these two things are put together, my first reaction is: this is not a coincidence, but two mirrors of the same risk appetite shrinking.
On one hand, Ansem is saying that bottom signs indicate price resilience to negative news; on the other, traditional financial bears are increasing their positions in tech stocks. My impression is that crypto-native players and traditional funds have started to define "risk assets" in different directions.
Looking at smart money's meme operations, single transactions are only about $30,000, which is basically trial positions, not building positions. The kind of position where you lose 40% without worrying about it shows their attitude toward highly volatile assets is: you can play, but don't take it seriously.
For BTC, ETH, SOL, CORE, I'll make a simple deduction: if BTC can continue to reach higher lows in the 58,000 to 60,000 range, the bottom structure of the market will still be alive; ETH must keep up with the recovery, or BTC's resilience will be fighting alone; It's good that SOL is elastic, but the key is whether it can sustain volume growth. As for CORE, it is currently at 0.02 with shrinking volume and a bearish decline. If the market does not warm up, it is highly likely to continue falling bearish rather than reverse.
There are only two observation criteria: First, if BTC can rise above 62,000 on increased volume, it means Ansem's resilience has been confirmed, risk appetite has truly recovered, and oversold small coins like CORE will have a foundation to follow; Second, if the inflow of smart money into the meme sector over the next two days expands from the $30,000 level to the $300,000 level, it indicates that funds are ramping up their positions and trying to make mistakes, and sentiment is warming up; otherwise, it's just a stock game of stock.
Risk warning: Michael Burry's short roll indicates macro capital's bearish attitude toward tech stocks and the Nasdaq. If the crypto market weakens along with US stocks, any "bottom signal" could be directly disproven by liquidity contraction.After being proven wrong by 29%, he didn’t admit defeat, he just changed the date
Michael Burry submitted a new position change. After reading it, there’s only one feeling: he didn’t give up, he just pushed the date back.
First, look at what he let go. The long position in Microsoft was sold, the short position in Oracle was closed, and the short position in Palantir expiring in January 2026 was also closed.
Now look at what he kept. The short position in Nvidia was extended to June 2027. The short position in the Nasdaq 100 ETF was extended to February 2027. He still holds short positions in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ETF, Micron, Caterpillar, Palantir, Tesla, and Applied Materials.
Putting these two sets of positions together tells a story. The ones closed were all near-term expirations, while the ones kept were all pushed back more than a year.
And last night’s market looked like this. Palantir surged 29.45% in a single day, breaking above the 200-day moving average in one go. Caterpillar rose over 5% to a record high. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 6.55%, with all 30 components up; SanDisk and Intel rose over 10%, and Micron’s market cap returned to the trillion level. The tech giants collectively rose nearly 10% over the past four days.
Almost every name he shorted hit new highs or surged yesterday.
A few days ago, he said it’s like 1987 now, that declining volatility would trigger a self-reinforcing cycle of automatic leverage. Now that he’s been proven wrong, his choice wasn’t to turn around but to push the expiration dates back by a year and a half. This move sends a clearer message than any words: he believes the bubble is still there, just didn’t expect it to last this long.
Anyone can shout “top,” but putting real money on 2027 is a real statement. If you want to understand what someone is thinking, don’t listen to what they say—look at which dates they’re putting their money on.
On the same day, there was another set of numbers. Liang Wenfeng’s Magic Square Quantitative’s nine July products all dropped over 20%, with a maximum drawdown of 22.15%, and year-to-date returns turned from positive to negative. Leading firms like Ming Shi, Ping Fang He, Jiu Kun, and Ming Qun also experienced drawdowns. The industry explanation is that tech growth stocks and high-momentum strategies are too crowded; when styles reverse, similar concentrated positions turn around, and factors that used to make money instantly become sources of losses.
On one side, the index hits new highs every day; on the other, momentum-based quant funds collectively crash. These two things happening simultaneously only prove one point: the current rise is not broad-based, but driven by a very small number of names pulling the index up.
What does this have to do with us? BTC is still hovering around 63,000 today, while global risk appetite is clearly rising, but crypto hasn’t gotten a share. If Burry is right, when the bubble really bursts, the liquidity that gets pulled first is likely from crypto. If Hayes’ theory holds, the super money printing after the crash is another story. Short term is pressure, long term is a variable—don’t mix these two.
So the question is: are you standing with the current new highs, or with the person who’s holding short positions through 2027?SpaceX2026Q2财报米哥核心观点：这份上市后首份财报营收78亿美元，同比大涨92%远超市场预期，但公布后盘后股价反而大跌8-9个点。
公司单季度184亿资本开支里有158亿都砸向AI，用来采购显卡布局算力租赁，发展重心已经从大众印象里的航天火箭公司，转向类似甲骨文的算力出租模式，现金储备从247亿涨到935亿，星链等航天业务的投入远不及市场预想。
股价承压主要有两个原因，一是临近千亿规模的股票解禁，二是资金大幅倾斜AI和不少投资人原本期待深耕航天的预期不符，后续SpaceX大概率还会持续加码算力投入，成为全球最大的显卡采购方。#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 看了眼SpaceX上市后的第一份成绩单，确实挑不出太大毛病。
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量
季度营收78.14亿美元，同比增长92%；运营亏损从9.7亿美元收窄到1.43亿美元。Starlink用户已经达到1200万，连接业务收入增长66%。
收入涨得快，亏损也在收窄。之前担心SpaceX上市就是为了圈钱的人，这次算是被财报打了一下脸。
但如果现在让我在“业绩”和“解禁”之间选一个，我会把七成注意力放在解禁上。
因为财报解决的是SpaceX值不值得买，解禁考验的是市场突然能不能接下这么多货。
8月6日，约9.115亿股将获得出售资格，占总股本约12%。这个数字比目前市场上约6.4亿股的流通盘还要大。哪怕最终只有一小部分被卖出来，对短线价格也不会轻松。
当然，解禁不等于股东一定卖。可员工和早期投资人已经持有很多年，成本也普遍低于上市后的价格。现在终于有机会把账面财富换成真金白银，有人改善生活，有人分散仓位，这都很正常。不能指望所有人继续陪市场讲梦想。
昨晚的走势已经有点这个味道了。SpaceX常规交易时段上涨接近10%，收在125美元附近，但仍没有回到135美元的IPO发行价；财报出来以后，盘后涨幅又被吃掉不少。
这说明资金认可财报，却没有认可到愿意无视解禁压力。
至于SpaceX和英伟达合作的Starmind太空AI项目，故事确实很大，甚至大到很容易让人上头。
问题是，太空数据中心不是把英伟达显卡塞进卫星就结束了。发射、供电、散热、辐射防护和数据传输，每一项都要继续烧钱。什么时候产生订单，客户愿意付多少钱，毛利率能做到多少，现在还没有答案。
所以短期拿Starmind去对冲解禁，我觉得有点早。
接下来我只看一个信号：解禁之后放出巨量，股价还能不能守住当天低点。
如果抛压出来以后，股价两三天内重新站回135美元，说明市场真的把新增筹码接住了。那时候再参与，价格可能贵一点，但胜率更舒服。
如果成交量暴增，反弹却一次比一次弱，那就继续等。好公司可以等，好价格也可以等，没必要替早期股东接第一波筹码。
这次财报证明SpaceX的业务没有掉链子，但短线股价怎么走，恐怕不是马斯克说了算。
要看明天到底有多少人，终于想把股票换成现金，你觉得后续走势如何呢？
$SPCX Let me share a few insights about the upcoming cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH), storage sectors (SNDK, MU, SKHNIX), and Musk concepts (SPCX, TSLA):
1. Cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH):
For a while, I was in a bearish stance, but now I'm suddenly less bearish. The main reasons are as follows:
1) On August 3rd, MicroStrategy updated its trades, selling over 1,300 Bitcoins, but the impact on the market was minimal. The market did not fall immediately, likely because market expectations have been exhausted. This selling is just the realization of negative news; the realization of negative expectations does not actually turn negative.
2) ETF data has actually been trending upward these past two days. Institutions bought 211.5M yesterday and 170.1M the day before. These are net inflows filled with real money, completely absorbing a significant portion of the negative sentiment.
However, overall, BTC's market liquidity is still insufficient. Recently, US stocks have been trading very aggressively, but BTC has only slightly followed behind, with little decline or gain. Overall, it stayed motionless around the 4-hour downtrend line. A few days ago, I thought it would plunge by 3,000 feet, but now I have no short positions left.
2. Storage Sector (SNDK, MU, SKHNIX):
1) SanDisk's Beijing incident will release earnings reports at 4:30 a.m., and SanDisk, along with US stocks, has been going crazy lately, with daily gains of at least 10 points. If the earnings report exceeds expectations, there will likely be another surge.
2) The entire storage sector has recently been following the US stock market, with the S&P even hitting new highs. It really proves the saying: if you short anything, don't short US stocks. In contrast, the A-shares are still rebounding from bottoming out.
3) I've always thought storage won't rise so quickly. Personally, I think there will be a second probe, so recently I've mainly been bearish and short. But last night I already cut losses on two orders.
3. Musk Concept (SPCX, TSLA):
1. Yesterday I posted that SPCX will see big fluctuations in the next couple of days, and the opportunities here should be quite significant. As long as you focus on one thing being financially reported and the other being unlocked, you'll be fine.
2. From a technical perspective, the rebound here is extremely strong. Personally, I don't think even if the lock-up is lifted and there's a sell-off, it won't break through the recent bottom.
3. No matter how aggressively these two sell off after they come out, I think once they fully settle down, it's basically a bullish market opportunity. The smart people at the moment have definitely finished their plans.
I finished my long positions last night. There's still one short position ready to be secured at tonight's US stock market open, then let's look at stop-loss and take-profit options.
The above are just some personal thoughts and insights on trading and do not constitute investment advice. #财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future? #SpaceX首份财报超预期, unlocking remains a key variable $BTC $SPCX $SNDK id="c8a7pm"
After AMD's latest earnings report, the market's focus has shifted from "whether AI chips can sell" to "whether AI revenue can truly become a second growth curve."
In Q2, AMD's revenue was $7.69 billion, up 32% year-over-year and 7% quarter-over-quarter. Among this, data center business revenue was $3.2 billion, up 14% year-over-year, accounting for about 41.6% of total revenue, continuing to be the largest source of income.
But looking closely at the growth structure, one can see why the market has divergent views.
Although the data center business hit a new high, its growth rate is clearly lower than the overall revenue growth. Gaming business revenue was $1.18 billion, up 73% year-over-year; embedded business revenue was $861 million, up 9% year-over-year. The growth driven by AI accelerators still needs further validation through subsequent orders.
AMD's biggest current opportunity comes from the MI series GPUs.
The company stated that the MI300 series sales performance is strong and expects AI data center business to maintain high-speed growth in the coming years. However, compared to NVIDIA, there is still an ecosystem gap. The CUDA software ecosystem, number of developers, and large-scale deployment experience remain the biggest barriers AMD faces in catching up.
The capital market has already priced in expectations in advance.
AMD's stock price showed significant volatility after the earnings report, rising in after-hours trading before falling back. The reason is not poor performance but that the market had already priced in very high AI growth expectations.
Valuation further illustrates the issue.
Based on the latest market cap of about $270 billion, AMD's revenue over the past 12 months is about $30.4 billion, with a price-to-sales ratio of about 8.9x. Compared to traditional semiconductor companies, this valuation includes a large amount of AI growth expectations.
For the crypto market, the significance of AMD's earnings lies in whether the AI infrastructure cycle will continue.
Over the past year, AI capital expenditure has driven up GPUs, data centers, power, and semiconductor supply chains, while also supporting liquidity in risk assets. If AI companies start to reduce capital investment, it will affect not only tech stocks but potentially the valuation of the entire high-risk asset class.
Currently, the market needs to focus on three sets of data:
First, whether AMD's data center revenue growth can again exceed overall revenue growth;
Second, whether orders for the MI series GPUs continue to expand;
Third, whether AI capital expenditures from major clients like Microsoft, Meta, and OpenAI continue to increase.
The AI rally is not over yet, but the market has moved from "believing the story" to "verifying the revenue."
#AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ #闪迪财报前夕, HBF and storage shortages have sparked heated discussion
🔥 On the eve of SanDisk's earnings report, the HBF standard was implemented—the storage industry's "new king bomb" arrived
Guys, the storage sector has hit big trouble again.
On the eve of SanDisk's Q2 earnings report, the company and SK hynix jointly introduced the industry's first standard specification for HBF (High Bandwidth Flash Memory) at the FMS 2026 Flash Summit. This is not a conceptual PPT, but a real technical standard officially released by OCP (Open Computing Project).
Meanwhile, Samsung has just announced that the storage shortage will continue until 2027, and may even drag on until 2028.
New technical standards + industry shortages—these two factors combined make SanDisk's upcoming financial report one of the most watched papers in the entire market.
What exactly is HBF? Simply put, it's "HBM for the poor."
Once you understand HBF, you'll understand why the storage sector has been so crazy this year.
HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is standard for AI training, but it is expensive, has limited capacity, and is in short supply. SSDs are cheap and have large capacity, but they're slow and can't keep up with GPUs.
HBF is the new type stuck in the middle—using NAND flash as the underlying layer (cheap + large capacity), but with stacking methods and interface protocols aligned with HBM (high bandwidth). According to the newly released specifications, HBF supports up to 512GB capacity, with bandwidth coverage from 0.4TB/s to 3.0TB/s, using 8-layer or 16-layer NAND stacking, interconnecting with GPU/CPU via the UCIe standard.
To put it plainly: When performing AI inference, the model parameters can be stored in the HBF, which is much cheaper than HBM and much faster than SSDs. SanDisk aims to produce samples in the second half of 2026 and launch the first batch of AI inference devices in early 2027.
If HBF really works, SanDisk will no longer be an ordinary NAND manufacturer; it is opening up a whole new storage layer. This is equivalent to forcibly creating a trillion-yuan new market between DRAM and SSD.
Storage shortages are not hype, but structural shortages
Now, let's talk about the broader industry background.
Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk will collectively begin production control by the end of 2025. Micron and SanDisk cut NAND production by about 15%, while Samsung cut chip shipments at its Xi'an factory by more than 10%.
But demand simply won't stop. AI data centers consume exponentially more storage—training requires HBM, inference requires high-capacity SSDs, and data lakes require HDDs. Enterprise SSD prices rose more than 30% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, and SanDisk's data center revenue surged 76% year-on-year.
More importantly, wafer fab capacity is limited. If the production line prioritizes HBM, the capacity for NAND will be squeezed out. This "zero-sum game" locks down the supply ceiling for NAND, preventing prices from coming down.
Samsung has clearly stated that all HBM capacity will be locked in by customers by 2026, with sales expected to grow more than threefold. SK Hynix's DRAM inventory is still declining, with NAND inventory weeks nearly matching DRAM, making the whole year tight.
Under this supply-demand pattern, storage price increases are not short-term pulses but a super cycle lasting at least until 2027.
What should you watch in SanDisk's financial report? Three key figures
SanDisk's earnings report (expected to be released August 5/6) is the touchstone for the market to verify all this.
First, can ASP (average selling price) continue to rise? Last quarter, SanDisk's price per GB rose 30% quarter-on-quarter, directly pushing gross margin to 51%. If ASP continues to rise this quarter, it indicates that the tight supply logic is still reinforced.
Second, the proportion of data center revenue. Data center revenue last quarter was $440 million, up +64% quarter-over-quarter and +76% year-over-year. This is the core support for SanDisk's valuation. The more AI customers rely on SanDisk's enterprise-grade SSDs, the stronger their pricing power.
Third, HBF progress and capital expenditure guidance. Will management provide a more specific timeline for HBF mass production during the call? Will capital expenditure increase in 2026 due to capacity expansion? These factors determine whether the market is willing to give SanDisk a "new technology premium."
Currently, the market expects adjusted EPS for Q4 (SanDisk's fiscal year Q4) to be $30-33, with revenue of $7.75-$8.25 billion. If it exceeds expectations, the stock price may continue to soar; If it falls short of expectations, considering the stock price has already fallen significantly from the $2,354 high, volatility will be significant.
Mapping the crypto world and the AI sector
What is the relationship between storing supercycles and the crypto world?
Direct relationship: Computing power industry chain. The expansion of AI computing power requires supporting storage, and rising storage prices mean the cost of AI data centers is rising. This will force cloud providers to utilize computing power more efficiently and may accelerate the demand for decentralized computing power/storage.
Indirect relationship: narrative mapping. SanDisk's HBF essentially tells a story of "new technology opening new markets." Similar narratives in the crypto world include DePIN (decentralized physical infrastructure) and AI+Crypto. But the difference is that SanDisk has real production capacity, customer orders, and pricing power, while many crypto projects are still at the PPT stage. The storage industry's performance is essentially pricing all "AI infrastructure" narratives—those with performance enjoy a premium, those without results are disproven.
In short
With the implementation of HBF standards + ongoing storage shortages, SanDisk is at a critical turning point from a "cyclical stock" to a "growth stock." Financial reports are a short-term catalyst, while HBF represents medium- to long-term potential. If the demand for AI inference really explodes as expected, HBF may replicate the HBM myth; If progress falls short of expectations, current high valuations will also come under pressure.
My view: the logic behind the storage supercycle hasn't been broken, but the stock price has already risen a lot. Before earnings reports, it's not recommended to heavily invest in directions and wait for the data to come out before deciding whether to chase or run. In the medium to long term, HBF, this new technological variable, is worth continuous tracking.
The above are purely personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Do you think HBF can replicate HBM's surge? Let's talk in the comments.The most dangerous thing for ETH now is not a fall.
But everyone is waiting for it to rise.
Recently, when I read the comments section, I can see a sentence almost every day:
After BTC's rise, it's time for ETH.
That sounds reasonable.
But there's a problem with the deal.
The logic that everyone knows is often the hardest to make money.
BTC has been supported by ETF funds during this period, and the story of institutional allocation has not stopped.
What about ETH?
The market has been talking about ETFs, RWAs, stablecoins, and on-chain ecosystems.
These stories are true.
The problem is, these stories have been told for a long time.
If an asset really wants to start a major upswing, the most important thing is not whether the story is good enough.
It's about whether there's new money willing to continue raising prices.
I've been looking at the ETH ETF data recently.
There has been no panic withdrawal of funds, and some products have maintained net inflows in recent weeks.
But it just makes me more cautious.
Because the inflow of ETFs represents allocation demand, it does not mean that the short-term price will continue to rise. Many studies have found that ETF flows are more about confirming trends than creating them.
What concept?
The money is slowly coming in.
But the price did not come out of the market that made all the bears surrender.
At times like this, I won't rush to chase.
Because the real danger is not a 5% drop in ETH.
It's that everyone thinks:
"It's going to make up for it sooner or later."
One of the most likely ideas to lose money in trading is:
The direction is right, and time must also be on your side.
But the market never goes up just because everyone thinks it should go up.
If BTC continues to move sideways and ETH is unable to move independently, then the first to collapse is not the trend.
It's patience.
A lot of people will start to doubt.
They will start to reduce their stock.
It will start cashing.
So I'm not going to heavily pursue ETH now.
It's not because I'm short on ETH. #以太坊草案EIP-8363 sparked controversy $ETH
Will ETH become a "low-inflation asset" or sacrifice decentralization in the future?
The emergence of EIP-8363 essentially reflects the core contradiction in Ethereum's long-term development: the game between the store of value attribute and network security incentives.
From a positive perspective, if this proposal is implemented in the future, ETH's supply model may further trend toward "scarcity." Currently, the market is closely watching ETH's inflation changes after shifting from PoW to PoS, and EIP-8363 attempts to reduce new issuance pressure by adjusting the validator reward mechanism as staking scale continues to expand. When a large amount of ETH is staked, even approaching 50% of the total supply, consensus rewards are offset, meaning ETH may further strengthen its "digital commodity" attributes. For long-term holders, this could enhance ETH's value narrative and boost market confidence in ETH's dilution resistance.
However, market controversy is also very obvious. One of Ethereum's greatest advantages is openness and decentralization, while declining validator returns may lead some small and medium-sized nodes to exit, further driving staking centralization. Currently, ETH staking faces a high proportion of large staking service providers. If returns continue to decline and the operating cost pressure for small validators increases, more people may choose to entrust ETH to large institutions for custody, which conflicts with the goal of decentralization.
From a trader's perspective, EIP-8363 is more of a sentiment-driven event in the short term rather than an immediate fundamental change affecting prices. The market may react in two ways: first, funds interpret it as ETH "deflationary upgrade," boosting long-term value expectations; Second, some investors worry about declining staking returns, triggering short-term selling pressure.
For the ETH market, the real factors determining the trend remain several core factors: ETF inflows, the Federal Reserve's liquidity environment, on-chain activity, and the growth of the L2 ecosystem. If EIP-8363 passes, it will reinforce the narrative of ETH as a "super-sovereign asset," but the Ethereum community needs to find a new balance between scarcity, security, and decentralization.
At present, this seems more like a strategic choice for Ethereum over the next decade, rather than a simple adjustment of parameters. For ETH investors, short-term focus is on market sentiment fluctuations, while long-term attention should be seen to see if the proposal will change ETH's economic model.📈 "Daytime Observation" | 2026.08.05 (Wednesday)
Asia-Pacific is tough today.
Nikkei rose 3.66%, South Korea rose 3.76%, Taiwan rose 2.88%, and the Hang Seng Index was in the red. All A-shares were in the red, with the STAR 50 Index surging 4.78% and leading the gains.
The most noteworthy signal: The US is considering restricting Chinese data centers, and optical modules opened lower under pressure in early trading, but core stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang opened lower and then turned positive. The market has priced in this negative news.
💡 Uncle's observation: the index is firm, and the structure is also firm. If it doesn't fall when it should fall, it means sentiment is stronger than expected.$SOL Short-term pattern completely opposite to BTC and ETH. Not only did it fail to follow the rally, but in the past few hours, it has specifically "hunted" long positions, making it the weakest among the three major currencies.
1. 24-hour overall situation: Bears have a slight advantage, but the gap is not large
The total liquidation in 24 hours was $2.37 million, with short positions (1.3968 million) slightly exceeding long positions (974,700), a ratio of about 6:4. Overall, the bears had a slight advantage all day, but not as extreme as BTC (8:2), indicating SOL was in a fluctuating or bearish state all day, with both bulls and bears suffering losses.
2. Time code: The "sudden change in style" in the past 4 hours, with bulls being targeted and detonated
This is the most unusual aspect of SOL:
· In the past 4 hours, total liquidation was $179,000, with long positions as high as $135,900, more than three times the short position (43,100)!
· Comparing BTC and ETH, which were both short positions (short squeeze and rally) in the past 4 hours, SOL has bucked the trend or stagnated during this period, causing leverage funds that chased long SOL to be liquidated in a targeted manner. This clearly shows that SOL has not kept pace with this crypto rebound.
3. Latest 1 Hour: Bulls Still "Under Pressure"
In the past hour, total liquidations amounted to $25,500, with long positions (24,400) accounting for 95%, and short positions almost negligible ($1,051). This means SOL is still under selling pressure at this moment, and short-term bulls are trapped immediately after entering, with very pessimistic market sentiment.
Conclusion vs. Operational Differences (Crucial! ）：
· SOL is severely weaker than the broader market in the short term: BTC and ETH are short pressing, while SOL is surging in longing. Either the main players are using BTC's rise to cover for selling SOL, or there are undisclosed negative factors for SOL itself or whales suppressing the market.
· Strategy advice: Firmly do not go long on SOL; it is not a catch-up target right now, but a hard-hit area for capital withdrawal. If you hold long positions in BTC or ETH, do not use SOL for hedging or adding positions. If BTC pulls back later, SOL's decline is very likely to exceed ETH's, as its long leverage (exposed in the past 4 hours) is already very fragile. If you want to bet on a rebound, prioritize BTC; If you want to short for hedging, SOL is actually a better choice than ETH at this stage. 📉 #标普500首次站上7700点, a record high [Big Bear Burry: US Stocks Are Nearing Major Tops, May Face a 1987 Crash] According to Jinse Finance, on August 5, as both the Dow and S&P 5 hit new highs, Michael Burry, the legendary hedge fund manager and real-life inspiration for the movie 'Put It Down,' still maintained his bearish stance and warned that this rally could end in a 'crash' similar to the 1987 crash.
Known as the "Sell God," Burry posted that the S&P 500 Index's new highs may attract new capital into the market, but he still believes that U.S. stocks may be nearing a major top, or even a crash like the one in 1987.
Bulley, who has long been skeptical about the AI boom, believes that demand for AI infrastructure is being driven by potentially unsustainable financing arrangements. The market's rise is forming a self-reinforcing cycle, and declining volatility is encouraging systemic investors to increase exposure. "The market rising as volatility declines forces volatility-target funds to increase leverage and bring in leveraged funds from other momentum strategies."
Bure stated that it will continue to hold short positions in iShares Semiconductor ETF, Micron, Nvidia, Caterpillar, Palantir, Tesla, and Applied Materials, and remains confident in the long-term outlook for these positions. But he added that if the trading direction is clearly unfavorable to him, he will cut losses and exit. Except for Nvidia's short positions, all other positions are currently in profit.
The most comprehensive 7x24 crypto news 📌 Italy's largest bank cuts 94% of its Bitcoin ETF, going all-in on staking ETH!
The details are different 👇 from what you imagine
🔻IBIT common stock was cut by 93.7%, nearly a full sell-off
🔻 Added put option hedges
🔺 Staking ETH ETF holdings tripled
🔻Solana staking ETFs are almost completely cleared out
It's not about "abandoning BTC," but about institutions doing the math:
If BTC doesn't rise, it means negative returns, and compared to US Treasuries, it has no interest advantage over US Treasuries.
Staking ETH yields on-chain yield, and even trading sideways can generate cash flow.
Banks and asset managers love "assets that generate interest."
⚠️ Three details not to overlook:
1️⃣ Still holds a large amount of ARKB, not fully withdrawn from the BTC sector
2️⃣ Individual institutional portfolio rebalancing ≠ global trend
3️⃣ Staking also carries network and withdrawal risks
📊 Practical Suggestions:
ETH is boosted by short-term sentiment, but the overall focus is on US Treasuries—don't go all-in.
Only stocks with real returns will catch the attention of institutions, while purely speculative coins will continue to be neglected.
What do you think? See you 👇 in the comments
#ETH #BTC #机构调仓 #质押收益
$ETH $BTC How crazy does a bull market need for Dogecoin to reach $1?
Let's settle the score first. Dogecoin's current price is far below $1, and its market value has reached the trillion-dollar level. What does that mean? This is basically equivalent to rebuilding an Ethereum or half a Bitcoin's volume. So don't just shout "To the Moon"—let's see how much fuel this rocket is needed.
First, Musk really becomes the "CEO of Dogecoin."
Previously, a single tweet by Musk could raise $DOGE by 30%, but to push for $1, he had to do something serious—for example, Tesla announcing it would accept DOGE payments, or X (Twitter) incorporating DOGE into the payment system. Just posting memes is no longer enough; real-world application scenarios are needed. If one day SpaceX says, "Our Mars base will settle with Dogecoin," that would be a nuclear-level benefit.
Second, Bitcoin must go crazy first
There's a rule in the crypto world: when Bitcoin rises, altcoins go wild. If BTC doesn't reach $150,000 or even $200,000, does DOGE want to go solo to $1? No way to get it. Only when the entire crypto market enters a supercycle, with hot money running wild and even air coins rising tenfold, will DOGE have a chance to take off on this momentum.
Third, large institutions need to enter the market
Now, traditional financial giants like Grayscale and BlackRock are all playing with Bitcoin ETFs. If an application for a "Dogecoin ETF" suddenly emerges, that would be a serious signal. Institutional money isn't just a few small coins from retail investors; once they enter, their scale changes dramatically.
Fourth, we must wait for the Federal Reserve to "inject liquidity"
Simply put, the rise and fall of the crypto world is tied to US dollar liquidity. The Fed needs to cut rates, print money, and implement quantitative easing. If hot money in the market has nowhere to go, it will turn to high-risk assets. That's exactly how the bull market of 2021 came about.
To be realistic
DOGE reaching $1 is not impossible, but the probability is really slim. Its unlimited issuance mechanism is right there: annual inflation of 5%, and the further it goes, the harder it is to reduce. Unless several of these spikes erupt simultaneously, creating a "perfect storm" level of a wild bull market.
So, if that day really comes, it's very likely the entire crypto world will be celebrating—Bitcoin hitting all-time highs, Ethereum skyrocketing, and DOGE rising accordingly. But what if you expect it to be beautiful on its own? Wake up, this is Dogecoin, not the legendary Dogecoin.
Investing carries risks, don't go all-in, save some money for buying dog food.#AMD财报超预期 has growth been overdrawn?
When it comes to AMD's financial report, many people are stunned. Both revenue and net profit exceeded expectations, and guidance for the next quarter was raised, so why did the stock price plunge nearly 9% after hours? $AMD
In fact, if you look at the recent market and capital sentiment side by side, this makes perfect sense
🤔 What exactly is the market trading?
On the surface, this stock price drop seems to be the fulfillment of positive news, but the core is the market's extreme scrutiny of valuation and gross margin
Before the earnings report, the stock price had already surged significantly, pushing expectations to the ceiling. When expectations are set too high, simply exceeding expectations is no longer enough; a flawless report card is needed to support the stock price to keep rising
There are two details in the financial report that triggered the cash flow safely
▶️ One is that although the data center business has more than doubled, the new architecture is in a capacity ramp-up phase, which has lowered short-term GAAP gross margin
▶️ The other is that traditional gaming business continued to decline by 30%, making growth seem overly dependent on single-core drivers
Right now, what people trade isn't whether it can grow, but whether its profitability matches its high valuation
💡 What is most necessary to fulfill your goal to regain recognition?
Rather than focusing solely on revenue figures, I believe capital will focus on these three points the most:
🪁 Above all, gross margin and profit quality are the main factors
No matter how large the data center is, if upfront investments and depreciation dilute profit margins, the market will doubt its pricing power. Only when new products ramp up and gross margins steadily recover will the market dare to continue offering high premiums
🪁 Secondly, the true stickiness of AI products is key
AMD needs to prove that it is not just an alternative when capacity is tight, but a core option that top customers are willing to lock in long-term orders
🪁 Finally, the balance of business structure
If gaming and embedded businesses continue to lag behind, the single pillar of data centers will only grow heavier
💡 Build strategy and subsequent predictions
For those with AI tech stocks, this financial report sends a clear signal: the first half of the high growth in AI hardware has ended, and the market has moved from the storytelling stage to a stage focused on refined accounting and cost-effectiveness
In the short term, stock prices may fluctuate near key support levels to absorb the gross margin shock, and it will take weeks for sentiment to clear
But in the medium to long term, the trend of tech giants pursuing dual computing power procurement is irreversible, and AMD, as an indispensable and strong competitor in the market, remains clear in its direction. When capacity is successfully realized in the second half of the year and profit margins stop falling and rebound, opportunities for valuation reshaping will return
Growth stocks worth holding long-term have never been smooth sailing; they are companies that can still turn growth into solid cash flow under high pressure
Non-investment advice for DYOR #闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议
The market is currently hyping AI storage, HBF, and HBM shortages, even with expectations looking as far ahead as 2027.
But the problem is, the better the story sounds, the more likely the stock price has been prematurely priced in.
HBF has great future potential, but it will take a long time from technical implementation to actually contributing profits.
If the earnings report only meets expectations rather than significantly exceeding them, investors at high levels are very likely to cash out directly.
Often, the most dangerous thing is not the absence of good news, but that everyone already knows the good news.
Tonight, I am more inclined to wait and see, not to bet on instant earnings-driven price swings.
The market always has opportunities, but risks under high expectations cannot be ignored.
#SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量
The earnings performance is actually good, with core data exceeding expectations, and AI business losses narrowing.
But the market is now more focused on another issue—the unlocking pressure.
On August 6, a large number of shares will be released, and early investors with low costs have strong incentives to realize profits.
So short-term stock price fluctuations are very normal, as capital will first absorb the selling pressure.
However, in the long term, Starlink growth, rocket launch capabilities, and AI deployment remain SpaceX's core value.
The real opportunity may come after the unlocking pressure is released, to see if the market re-recognizes its growth logic.
#闪迪财报前夕，HBF与存储紧缺引发热议 A complete analysis of the A-share market close on August 5
1. Core Market Data
By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index settled at 3878.43, up 1.47%; Shenzhen Component Index at 14,142.62, up 1.86%; ChiNext Index 3524.11, up 1.32%; The STAR 50 surged 4.78%, leading the entire market in growth elasticity.
Total turnover across the two markets for the day was 2.68 trillion yuan, an increase of over 450 billion yuan from yesterday, clearly indicating the entry of incremental funds; over 3,700 stocks in the market closed higher, with a ratio close to 2:1, 92 stocks hitting the daily limit up, only 3 stocks hitting the daily limit down, confirming a broad-based recovery trend.
Northbound funds saw a net inflow of over 12.6 billion yuan throughout the day, accelerating their return at the close, with heavy and increased positions in semiconductors, storage, and optical communications sectors.
2. Main Sector: Explosion of the Entire Memory Semiconductor Industry Chain (Core Driver)
1. Storage Chip (the strongest main storyline in the game)
Overnight, U.S. stocks like SanDisk and Micron surged, while South Korea's SK Hynix and Samsung surged simultaneously. Coupled with expectations of strong demand for AI computing power and storage, the sector surged over 6% across the board. GigaDevice Innovation, Jiangbolong, and Baiwei Storage surged sharply, semiconductor equipment and electronic specialty gases hit the daily limit in batches, Changxin Storage industry chain stocks collectively strengthened, and institutional funds rushed back to bottom-fish.
2. Optical communication/CPO computing power
Computing hardware continues to show strength, with Tianfu Communication, Guangxun Technology, and Yongding Co. continuing to surge, while computing power cables and high-speed PCBs are also strengthening, and AI infrastructure logic continues to attract capital clustering.
3. Electronic components and passive components
MLCCs and RF components followed suit, the consumer electronics industry chain was fully restored, and sentiment in overseas storage sectors resonated to drive valuation recovery in the domestic electronics sector.
3. Weak Adjustment Sectors
Consumer liquor and food & beverage experienced slight fluctuations; Telecom operators and traditional energy sectors weakened slightly; Pharmaceutical CXO is differentiating, with only leading stocks slightly recovering, and funds shifting from defense to technology growth.
4. Core logic of the rise
1. External catalysts: Global memory chip riots collectively, SK Hynix releases new industry standards + institutions raise target prices, strengthening expectations for cyclical recovery;
2. Capital Switching: Safe-haven funds are flowing out of consumer and pharmaceutical sectors, aggressively positioning themselves in low-level oversold tech sectors, with volume confirming the effectiveness of the rebound;
3. Policy support: Financial support for high-end manufacturing policies is implemented, and long-term expectations for semiconductor and AI computing power have stabilized market confidence;
4. Liquidity is moderate and loose, with large-cap trading volume continuing to expand, and the rebound is supported by capital sources, not a stock market competition.
5. Forecasting future market trends
1. Index Level: The Shanghai Composite Index holds the key resistance level at 3850, breaking out of a box with increased volume, opening a short-term upward trend; The STAR 50 Index leads the gains, with the tech growth trend continuing;
2. Track Rhythm: Storage and computing hardware remain the core market themes. Overnight, overseas chip prices continue to improve, and there are plenty of opportunities to buy on dips on pullbacks;
3. Risk warning: After short-term consecutive sharp gains, there may be slight profit-taking and volatility; do not chase rallies at high levels; Risks of medium- to long-term suppression from the Fed's hawkish statements remain noteworthy.wintermute just dropped $4.8M of $AAVE onto binance, and we've watched this exact wallet do this before: same pattern with $SUSHI back in august, funded straight from wintermute itself.
that's one transfer. the net across all 13 venues this week is $11.6M onto exchanges, and price sat basically flat at -1.3%. size moved, chart said nothing.
a second wallet with 1071 days of history on binance also chipped in $3.7M, last time it moved a coin like this ($UNI) the thing crept up 1.1% over the next day, so this isn't automatically bearish plumbing either.
money's arriving where it can get sold. possible sell pressure building, not confirmed, MM and OTC flows look identical on-chain. watching this one close. NFA 👀#财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ After the earnings report came out, the market's reaction actually indicated one thing: this is not a "bad" earnings report, but one that "does not meet the high expectations."
From the data, SpaceX's Q2 revenue grew about 92% year-over-year, significantly exceeding market expectations, and losses narrowed compared to the same period last year, showing that business growth remains strong. What really makes investors hesitant is not the revenue, but the persistently high AI capital expenditures, free cash flow pressure, and the upcoming large-scale unlocking of shares.
I believe the market's focus has shifted going forward.
In the short term, it's about unlocking; in the long term, it's about realization.
A large number of restricted shares are about to enter circulation, meaning the supply of market chips will significantly increase. If some early shareholders and employees choose to realize gains, short-term stock price pressure is normal—this is a liquidity issue and does not necessarily indicate a deterioration in the company's fundamentals.
The two real issues to watch are:
First, can the company maintain high-speed growth in the coming quarters?
If revenue growth slows while capital expenditures remain high, valuation will face re-pricing.
Second, has the market already priced in the long-term story?
SpaceX has multiple hot sectors like aerospace, Starlink, and AI, with huge long-term potential. But the capital market won't pay just for the story; it will focus more on profits, cash flow, and the speed of realization.
So my current view is:
Short-term fluctuations are likely more due to the pressure from unlocking shares rather than the earnings report itself.
The medium to long-term direction still depends on whether the company can continue to deliver growth rather than just telling bigger stories.
Often, earnings are just the fuse; capital behavior is the real factor determining the trend.
If the stock price can hold steady or even quickly complete chip turnover after unlocking, it actually shows the market's absorption capacity is stronger than expected; if it falls heavily with high volume and fails to recover, then the tolerance of capital for high valuations needs to be reassessed.
What do you think? Is this round of SpaceX's adjustment more like an emotional release before unlocking, or the start of a long-term valuation restructuring? $SPCX rocket surged directly to 130 yesterday and then sharply dropped to 114. What does this abnormal movement mean? How should we respond going forward?
From the rocket's fundamentals, yesterday's surge was mainly driven by the release of its Q2 earnings report. The market speculated on this report, causing a short-term rally. However, after the earnings were published at 4:30 AM, the market's speculation ended. The short-term bullish sentiment has been fully digested, and judging by the capital flow and the speed of the decline, the market continues to maintain a bearish trend.
Currently, capital is more focused on the impact of lock-up releases! Therefore, the slight short-term rise caused by the earnings report does not mean the long-term downtrend has been reversed. The main view remains bearish, but attention should be paid to capital movements!
Looking at capital flow data, it aligns with market movements. The rocket's short-term bottoming started on August 2, just three days ago. Net capital flow shows that nearly two-thirds of the net outflow in the past 24 hours accounts for the total net outflow over the past three days. Further analysis of the last 12 and 8 hours indicates that capital outflow was mainly concentrated between 2 AM and 6 AM, during the earnings release period. More short-term funds chose to exit, causing a rapid market sell-off!
My suggestion is that the current market has returned to the previously established key price zone. The long-term outlook remains bearish. The short-term short positions have a higher win rate than long positions. You can try shorting near the key price of 120 on a breakout #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ $SNDK During this period, BlackRock launched two new tokenized funds on Ethereum $ETH, which are actually the hardest bullish signals for ETH, but most people didn't understand them.
Don't be fooled by ETH's 45% drop over the past year; Wall Street hasn't pulled out—instead, it's accelerating its positioning. They are competing for the trillion-dollar market share on Ethereum.
The new funds, BSTBL and BRSRV, are designed specifically for stablecoin reserves and are directly implemented on Ethereum. Although flagship BUIDL has spanned 8 chains, Ethereum $ETH still leads with $1.1 billion in assets, accounting for 38% of its total on-chain cap.
The tokenized RWA market tripled to $32 billion in a year, with only 10% currently connected to DeFi—Wall Street has only just moved its balance sheet on-chain.
Institutions don't care about hourly candlesticks, only recognizing settlement certainty and liquidity depth—this is Ethereum's irreplaceable moat.
The entire market is currently chasing AI, but it overlooks the huge opportunity presented by the crypto world. A year from now, you will chase ETH back just as you do now.[US stocks and AI surge, oil crash beats rate hikes, but BTC remains stagnant—tonight's short squeeze is not what you might expect]
Guys, tonight the US AI/semiconductor sector surged sharply. Dow futures rose 1.65%, Nasdaq QQQ surged 3.06%, and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index SOX soared 6.2%. $INTC rose over 11%, $MU rose nearly 9%, $MRVL rose 14.5%, $SNDK rose 11%, and $NVDA rose 3%. Oil prices crashed, WTI plunged 5% to 74.66, Brent fell below 79—Hormuz resumed negotiations and advanced, OPEC increased production by 1.16 million barrels per day in July, completely draining the war premium.
The logic is simple: oil drop = cooling inflation expectations = loosening of rate hike narrative = risk assets are fully risk-on.
But look at BTC—it's still hovering around 64,300, up less than 1%. US stocks surged, but BTC didn't follow suit. Continuing the independent weakness pattern of "following declines but not rises" since July, tonight was no exception.
Let's start with the board structure:
$BTC is oscillating narrowly between 64,096 and 64,300, with 15-minute and 1-hour moving averages in a bullish alignment, RSI at 58-60, and MACD strengthening. 4-hour overly long entanglement, RSI 57. However, the daily chart remains bearish, with RSI at 50.5 and MACD bearish convergence but not turning bullish. All short-term cycles turned bullish, but the daily chart was not confirmed. $ETH is still the weakest, near 1876, with short-term bullish entanglements, and the daily short chart remains unchanged. $SOL at 74.2, short-term bullish but also bearish on the daily chart.
Derivatives data also validates this state:
The rates are mildly positive, with BTC +0.0039%/8h, ETH +0.0075%/8h, bulls paying slightly, but no extreme short squeeze signals. In the past 24 hours, $BTC liquidations totaled 33.3 million, short exposures totaled $26.2 million, and long liquidations totaled $7.1 million, forcing shorts to 3.7 times. But the price hasn't moved much, which means the short squeeze has marginally weakened. OI saw a slight increase, DVOL fell to a 30-day low, spot discounts narrowed but remained negative, and institutions showed no signs of buying quickly. Max Pain is at 63,000, with a magnetic center below.
Core Conflict:
The macro market is indeed improving, but the crypto market has not kept pace. $SNDK rose 11%, $MU rose 9%, $MRVL rose 14%. Storage and semiconductor sectors were short pressing, but $BTC remained unmoved. This indicates that funds are only trading on local products and have not been transmitted to the broader market. The 8/5 Max Pain is at 63K, with a magnetic effect below. Before breaking out of the box, both the long and short chases are easy to hit.
How to handle transactions in trading:
$BTC box at 62,200-65,400, confirming a breakout at the 1-hour close, then chase further. Before breaking through, I kept grinding around 63K, not chasing the first needle of data. $ETH box 1,820-1,936, handled the same as BTC. Storage semiconductors rose 11% today, and the AI rally has already reached its later stage. No shorting, but caution is advised when chasing highs.
There's another variable tonight:
$SPCX Q2 earnings report tonight after US market hours. 95% of available shares have been lent out, with 34% of short positions being held. Elon Musk publicly called out to the bears, and the combination of short squeeze + binary catalysts will cause significant volatility. $SPCX rose 14% during the day, but when the earnings report comes out at night, either continuing to squeeze the short or the positive news will be priced in and the price will fall. In this position, watching the show is safer than participating.
Friday's nonfarm payrolls (expected 83,000, unemployment rate 4.3%), Hormuz negotiations are still underway, and oil prices and inflation expectations are expected to fluctuate. Whether the divergence in the crypto market can be contained may only be answered after the non-farm payroll is implemented.
Light positions overnight, waiting for confirmation signals.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $SNDK $SPCX $MU $MRVL $NVDA $INTC
#BTC #ETH #SOL #SNDK #SPCX #美股AI #半导体 #非农 #油崩 #合约交易 #逼空行情Tonight's SanDisk earnings report: options market bet ± 21%—this trading guide can save your life
Brothers, there's something big tonight.
SanDisk will release its FY2026 Q4 financial report after the US market closes. This is no ordinary financial report—the company's stock price has risen 578% over the past year. Q3 revenue was $5.95 billion, up 251% year-on-year. Gross margin has risen above 78%.
But Wall Street is never satisfied. Market expectations for Q4 revenue of $8.39 billion, up 41% quarter-on-quarter, with EPS expected to be $33.01.
And then? The implied volatility given by the options market is ±21%. Some data even show ± 25%.
What does that mean? With tonight's earnings report, SanDisk may fluctuate by more than 20%. Up 20%, or down 20%.
This isn't just guessing about price swings. This is a 20% fluctuation multiple-choice question.
Let me break down three scenarios and their corresponding actions.
🚀 Scenario 1: Much better than expected—revenue > 8.5 billion, EPS > 35, 2027 guidance continues to be raised
Goldman Sachs has already pushed the target price to $2,200. Bank of America is even more aggressive, expecting Q4 revenue of $9.1 billion and EPS of $37. If it really reaches this level, there's a high chance of a post-market rally.
But note—SanDisk's average fluctuation after the past four quarters of its financial reports is only 6.45%. What does this ± 21% bet in the options market indicate?
This shows the market has priced in the phrase "beyond expectations."
Chasing the rally? Yes, you can. But don't keep the whole warehouse. We've just seen this scenario of a full set of positive news with Intel.
⚖️ Scenario 2: As expected—revenue of 8.3-8.4 billion, EPS around 34, with a neutral guidance
This is the most dangerous script.
Market expectations are already maxed out. Meeting expectations = not good enough. "Rallying first, then selling" is the standard approach for these financial reports—a brief post-market rally, followed by profit-taking.
If you see a post-market rally tonight, don't be greedy. and reduced the granaries. Getting in the pocket is nothing to be ashamed of.
📉 Scenario 3: Below expectations—revenue < 8.1 billion yuan, or loosening of gross margin and 2027 guidance
The bears have been watching this closely. SanDisk's stock price has risen nearly 30 times from the bottom; any sign of loosening means a further drop of 15%-25% is no joke.
Set stop-losses. Do not catch throwing knives.
Now, let's talk about encryption.
If SanDisk exceeds expectations → AI sector sentiment boosts → crypto AI tokens may follow suit. If it falls short of expectations→ short-term pressure.
But remember: the correlation between crypto AI tokens and SanDisk is a sentiment map, not a fundamental map. Don't use SanDisk's financial reports as the basis for the fundamentals of issuing tokens.
Finally, a key point in time:
August 13, SanDisk Investor Day. If it drops after tonight's earnings report, Investor Day could be the second catalyst. If there is a strong rally tonight, Investor Day could be the second window for selling on Investor Day.
Earnings trading is like a flip—you can guess, but it's best not to go all-in.
Leaving half of clarity and half of drunkenness.
$BTC $SNDK $SKHY #闪迪财报前夕, HBF and storage shortages have sparked heated discussion A few days ago, I said $SPY was very close to a new high, less than 0.3% away, and today that line was officially crossed. The S&P 500 closed last night at 7,737 points, up 1.79%. This is the first time in two months that it has closed a new record and officially surpassed the previous high set in early June. The Dow also closed at 54,085 points, marking the first time in history that it has surpassed the 54,000-point mark, gaining 907 points in a single day. The Nasdaq rose 2.59% to close at 26,584 points, but still about 2% short of its June all-time high, the only one among the three major indices that has yet to be filled.
The driving force behind this breakout is solid, not just an emotional outburst. During earnings season, among the 304 S&P 500 companies that have already released Q2 reports, 85.2% exceeded expectations, far above the historical average of 67.5%. $PLTR After the earnings report, the surge of 29.5% marked the largest single-day gain since February 2024, directly driving the technology sector to 4.1% to become the best-performing among the 11 sectors. Another issue is geopolitics. The market is betting on progress in negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude fell more than 5.7%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield also fell 7.3 basis points. Expectations of easing inflationary pressures gave the market an additional boost.
I personally see this breakout as a rare resonance between fundamentals and sentiment. The financial data is real, not just built on valuations. But the seasonal data from Bank of America should also be kept in mind. The period from August to October is historically the S&P's weakest three-month window, and as soon as a new new high was made, it plunged straight into this seasonally weak range. This combination is worth watching in the coming weeks.
#标普500首次站上7700点, it hit a record high #美伊谈判推进, and oil prices fell below $80 $SPY $ETH Staking rate approaches critical point, EIP-8361 wants to put "brakes" on the issuance mechanism
The Ethereum community recently submitted a new proposal, EIP-8361 called "Decreasing Issue and Burn," which focuses not on encouraging more people to stake, but on preventing unlimited expansion of staking scale. According to the design, the system burns a portion of validator theoretical rewards at each epoch, with the burn ratio increasing as the staking rate rises; When the total network staking rate approaches 50%, the new staking reward will gradually drop to zero.
This is essentially putting the brakes on the ETH issuance curve.
Currently, the staking scale has exceeded one-third of the total ETH supply. The proposed model shows that under the new decreasing issuance mechanism, ETH's annual incremental issuance rate may peak at around 20% and then continue to decline; If the staking rate rises to 50%, new issuance approaches zero. Compared to the current mechanism, where the staking rate is higher and total issuance continues to grow, the new plan emphasizes market-driven returns, with staking returns determined by fees, MEV, and risk premiums.
The underlying problem is actually quite real: if the staking rate is too high, security may seem to improve, but the amount of ETH in circulation will further decrease, and assets may concentrate in the hands of Lido, exchanges, and large custodians. In the long run, this will lead to reduced liquidity, governance concentration, and the risk of 'all ETH being de-staking' to a single level. EIP-8361 attempts to rebalance network security, supply dilution, and decentralization.
Looking at the market, ETH is currently trading at about $1868, with the 24-hour range at $1852–$1882, a range of about 1.58%. The one-hour MA5, MA10, and MA20 are at $1869.50, 1869.78, and $1870.50 respectively. These three moving averages have converged sharply, with prices slightly below the moving average group, indicating that the short-term market is still in a sideways direction phase. The area around $1850 is the first support; if it falls, it may test $1820–$1830 again; First, look at $1880 above; for a real strengthening, it still needs to hold above $1900–$1902.
Therefore, this proposal represents a long-term supply logic positive for ETH, but it is still under discussion and has multiple hurdles such as governance, testing, and community consensus before official implementation. Short-term prices will not take off based on just one EIP; trading volume and the quality of the $1900 break are more direct signals to observe.
This is for personal market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.
#以太坊草案EIP-8363 sparked controversy edgeX focused on speed, but turned its token into a textbook case of "how to quickly drain community trust." No matter how fast a product is, it can't outpace the speed at which internal chip dumps sell.
$EDGE is a typical negative example: the product is okay but the token is a mess—the trading experience has highlights, but the issuance method, allocation transparency, and suspicions of manipulation have basically shattered community trust.
While the official promotion of community proportions, on-chain data shows a large number of tokens concentrated in a few new wallets and related addresses. Ordinary users get pitifully little, suspected to be internal and partner parties eating the meat, while retail investors are just getting the soup. The project team's attitude of avoiding or even restricting discussion in response to questioning is more hurtful than directly admitting the problem. ZachXBT and others have directly named "low circulation controlled by a handful of insiders," but so far there has been no convincing public clarification.
The sharp drop of over 70% in June 2026 was no coincidence. Low liquidity, high concentration holdings, and leverage are structures tailored for extreme volatility. The project team shifted blame to "external manipulation," but the real problem was that the token structure itself was as fragile as paper. This token is not designed for long-term holders, but for those who will run away early.
Later, buybacks and burns sounded good, but the team and investors still had plenty of chips waiting to be unlocked. If trading volume fluctuates even slightly, selling pressure will return. Before protocol income stabilizes enough to continuously absorb and unlock it, holders are already betting that "they will really keep buying back."
Perp DEXs have already become a red ocean. Selling points like low latency and order books can also be achieved by competitors. Without a truly exclusive moat, once the hype fades, funding and users move faster than anyone else. Tokens bear all the aftereffects of issuance and trust.
After the triple blow of airdrop controversy + crash + vague response, many have labeled this token as "dirty." No matter how much you talk about products or data later, restoring trust takes a long time and may not be restored. Wall Street is betting on the next phase of AI, but risks are also accumulating ⚠️
Yesterday, the Nasdaq rose 2.6% in a single day, becoming the strongest performer among the three major indices, with funds clearly returning to tech stocks.
Why can the AI sector continue to attract capital?
Because the market is trading a logic:
AI is no longer just a "concept"—it is entering a truly commercialized phase.
Current capital focus:
🚀 AI Chips:
Nvidia continues to hold a core position, with data center and GPU demand remaining the biggest market narrative.
☁️ Cloud Computing:
Companies like Microsoft and Amazon are expanding their investment in AI infrastructure, and the market expects further growth in AI service revenue.
💾 Semiconductors:
As demand for AI servers increases, the storage and advanced manufacturing industry chains continue to attract attention.
However, there is also a hidden concern in the market now:
AI stocks have already risen rapidly. If future financial reports cannot prove that AI investment is turning into profits, high-valuation companies may face a correction.
My observation:
In the short term, the US stock market trend remains bullish;
In the medium term, focus on AI profitability;
If the Nasdaq continues to break out, risk assets (including BTC and ETH) may be driven by sentiment;
If tech stocks experience a sharp correction, the crypto world may also come under pressure as well.
The market is never afraid of price increases, but rather fears that new capital will take over the rally.
#财报观察员: Mixed results, lifting restrictions imminent! What do you think about SpaceX's future? #SpaceX首份财报超预期, unlocking remains a key variable #AMD财报超预期 has growth been overdrawn?