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$SPCX Is Falling Below $80 the Real Buying Point?
The stock price will fall another 20%-25%. Selling pressure is not yet over. The first long-term buy point is around $80, corresponding to a market value of 1 trillion
Continued pressure to unlock in the next six months, intensive unlocking from August to December. After the August 4 earnings report, a large 20% unlock of total share capital will be released on the 6th. Afterwards, about 7% of shares will be released during earnings week and biweekly
Short-term bias is bearish, but long-term opportunities are scarce. In the short term, there is more room to short on rallies. But looking at the 2-3 year horizon, this round of decline is paving the way for a subsequent surge
The core is not aerospace, but computing power and AI. Musk's main theme for valuation rally is Grok AI models and data center infrastructureAnalysis: This round of bubble bursts in memory chip stocks did not trigger systemic shocks; the S&P 500 fell only 1.6% from its historical high
The storage sector experienced a deep correction, with Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung experiencing sharp pullbacks. Korean stocks experienced sharp fluctuations, but the US stock market remained resilient. The S&P 500 fell only 1.6% from its historical high, without evolving into a global risk.
Core underlying reasons
1. This is a structural congestion market clearing rather than an overall economic crisis. Funds are simply withdrawing from the overvalued AI hardware sector, not fully escaping risk assets.
2. Significant internal capital rotation: funds selling storage hardware continue to flow into cloud services, tech leaders with stable cash flow, and defense sectors, forming hedging and supporting the overall market.
3. The banking system is not deeply tied to the storage sector leverage, there is no large-scale credit default risk, and there is no trigger to trigger a systemic decline.
Two layers of market signals worth paying attention to
(1) The market has entered a phase of divergence in AI markets. Funds no longer blindly speculate on upstream hardware, but have begun to strictly assess profitability performance, and valuations of "story-telling, delayed profit realization" targets remain under pressure.
(2) The bursting of local bubbles ≠ the end of the bull market, but it also signals the end of the era of broad price increases. The market will continue to diverge, with the gap between strong and weak sectors widening further.
Personal independent viewpoint
Don't let your guard down just because the market is holding up.
This round of shocks is limited to the storage industry chain, but the transmission chain still exists: lowered hardware profitability expectations will indirectly affect the market's long-term judgment of AI capital expenditure, temporarily suppressing risk asset sentiment.
For the crypto market, the focus is on Nasdaq growth stock sentiment.
If high-level AI hardware continues to weaken and leading cloud stocks cannot sustain funding, risk appetite will marginally tighten, making it difficult for mainstream coins to emerge from independent bullish rallies.
In trading, avoid crowded and overdrawn sectors, wait for continuous data verification, and avoid betting on oversold rebounds.Expecting the U.S. Congress to rescue the market efficiently? How many jin of fake liquor have people in the crypto world really eye?
The main focus of crypto regulation in the U.S.—the CLARITY Act—has unsurprisingly missed the window before Congressional recess. The "compliance pass" the market had been eagerly waiting for has now become "to be continued."
Following the news, Bitcoin immediately broke below key support from its previous local high of around $66,700, briefly dipping below the $63,000 mark, with liquidations across the network soaring by over $510 million.
Honestly, seeing these tens of millions and hundreds of millions of dollars trampling and fleeing, I really want to ask those disappointed bulls: how optimistic are they all in their usual dreams?
1. A 4% policy premium has caused Bitcoin to fall by 5 points
Many people with this round of long positions have a blunt and straightforward logic:
Bill passed→ SEC/CFTC no longer fight → Wall Street unlocks → Bitcoin surges to 100,000!
And what happened? According to the relevant assessment by Charles Schwab's research team, in fact, the actual expected weight of Bitcoin's recent price fluctuations is only about 4% due to the CLARITY Act advancement—the vast majority of major players simply don't take the bill seriously when it is implemented immediately.
But it was precisely this pitiful "compliance illusion" that led a group of retail investors to push the Bitcoin from $63,000 to nearly $66,700. When the big Bitcoin release is delayed or the bad news of missed recess window arrives, the market shows no mercy—a few hundred points of pure sentiment with no trading volume can crash overnight with a short-term correction of over 5%.
Forcing bipartisan politicians to work overtime efficiently for the crypto community before the recess? Betting real money on the logic of "U.S. policy implemented overnight" is essentially no different from betting a leopard in a casino.
2. What Agencies Fear Is Not $63,000 or $66,000, but "Blind Box Enforcement"
Why is the entire market watching this bill? Because of the few most basic problems in this industry, we still rely on "opening blind boxes" to this day:
Who will manage it: Whether it will be managed by the SEC (as securities) or by the CFTC (as digital commodities) is uncertain.
Who determines ecosystem maturity: Where is the standard for achieving "sufficiently decentralized"? There is no bill with clear rules; tokens could at any time be labeled as defaulted with fines amounting to billions of dollars.
Legitimate players dare not show their footing: Bitcoin ETFs finally brought in a large amount of traditional incremental growth this year, but once it involves complex altcoins and platform businesses, Wall Street would rather spend money in low-yield assets than dare to throw it away.
For institutions managing tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars, whether Bitcoin fluctuated between $63,600 or $65,000 today was just normal volatility; But if real money is poured in, and you wake up the next morning facing a pile of lawsuits, that's truly a devastating blow.
3. The "regulatory illusion" hype has been removed, but the truly brutal reshuffling is yet to come
In the past two days, the crypto market has seen over $510 million in liquidation, which is, frankly, "failed to fulfill expectations and short-term speculative leverage rushing to hand over bloody chips."
But the most painful part of this matter is not that the bill failed, but rather: when one day regulation is truly written in black and white, how many of your altcoins will survive?
In the past, narratives were all about the game: as long as the white paper was well hyped and celebrities endorsed it, whether it was a few yuan worth of air or a billion-yuan valuation, it could soar several times over.
The future is about compliance: When the threshold for true compliance is set — code open-source review, token concentration cannot be excessively controlled by individual entities or related parties, and business data must be disclosed—the current 80% crypto space, which relies solely on propaganda and spreading information, may be directly stripped of listing qualifications on mainstream compliant trading platforms.
4. Every story will eventually be told; compliance is the ultimate test
The CLARITY Act dodging this time is like pouring cold water on the hot-headed crypto community:
Bitcoin can remain resilient above $63,000 thanks to safe-haven sentiment and ETF funds, but for the entire industry to achieve a major upgrade, it cannot be achieved overnight by relying on a few positive rumors.
For the industry to reach the biggest Wall Street stage, it inevitably faces repeated faces in political maneuvering and approval time lag. While stories can hype up the chips, to truly settle tens of billions of dollars in compliant funds in the crypto world, you must rely on a non-competitive regulatory white paper and visible data metrics. $BTC ⏺ What are the signs before a cryptocurrency exchange collapses?
The collapse of cryptocurrency exchanges (such as historical events like FTX, Celsius, or Mt. Gox) often shows signs weeks or even months before a complete shutdown. Although a single event does not necessarily mean an absolute collapse, when multiple red flags appear simultaneously, the risk of liquidity exhaustion becomes extremely high.
Here are several of the most common core signs before an exchange collapses:
1. Withdrawal anomalies and restrictions (the most direct liquidity signal)
The inability to smoothly withdraw funds is a precursor to all collapse events.
Frequent "system maintenance": Exchanges have started frequently suspending or delaying withdrawals under the pretext of "hot wallet maintenance," "node upgrades," or "network congestion," especially targeting hard currencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, or stablecoins (USDT/USDC).
Sudden Reduction in Withdrawal Limits: Without prior notice, a user's daily withdrawal limit is suddenly and drastically reduced, or a cumbersome manual review process is added for large withdrawals.
High withdrawal fees: Sudden increases in withdrawal fees attempt to prevent funds from flowing out by increasing friction costs.
2. Platform token anomalies and collateral issues
If an exchange relies too heavily on its own issued tokens, its risk resistance becomes very fragile.
Excessive reliance on platform tokens on the balance sheet: Similar to FTX, whose assets were exposed before the collapse, heavily relied on its own token FTT. If most of an exchange's "reserve assets" are tokens it can print out of thin air, once the token price drops, it will become insolvent.
Platform token price crash: When negative rumors about the exchange emerge and its token is sold off on a large scale, if the exchange is unable to manage or even misappropriate users' customer funds to rescue the market, this is a sign of a full-blown collapse.
3. Counterintuitive Extremely High Yields (APY)
Unsustainable interest commitments: In a bear market or low-yield environment as a whole, if an exchange or its wealth management sector still promises "principal-protected and double-digit annualized returns," This usually means they engage in high-risk leveraged lending, DeFi mining behind the scenes, and may even fall into a "rob Peter to pay Paul" Ponzi scheme.
4. Transparency is questioned and audit shortcomings
Incomplete Proof of Reserves (PoR): In a situation where transparency is widely demanded in the industry, if an exchange only publishes proof of assets (proving how much money is on its books) but refuses to publish an audit report containing full liability data (proving how much users owe users), this "proof" is meaningless.
Audit firm exits: frequent changes of audit firms, or sudden announcements by well-known third-party audit firms to suspend cooperation with the exchange and refuse to endorse its financial health.
5. PR scandals and abnormal executive behavior
"Asset Security" Curse: The crypto industry has a famous reverse indicator—when founders or CEOs start posting intensively on social media, firmly refuting rumors and repeatedly emphasizing "Funds are safe" and "No liquidity issues," it often indicates that an internal liquidity crisis is already very serious.
Wave of executive resignations: Key executives such as CFOs, compliance officers, or risk control suddenly resign without warning.
Fiat Access Blockage: Partner traditional banks or payment providers suddenly announce they will stop providing fiat deposit and withdrawal channels for the exchange, which usually means the exchange has not passed anti-money laundering (AML) or risk control reviews.
Core principle: Not your keys, not your coins. If you have doubts about an exchange's financial health, the safest approach is to immediately transfer large amounts of assets to a hardware wallet or non-custodial wallet where you hold the private keys.Polymarket only listed a 26% chance of hitting 70,000 BTC in August, with an 80% chance at 65K and a 56% chance at 60K—this isn't a "push for 70,000" pricing, but rather a "grinding at 63,000–65,000 first, and touching 67,000 is already a passing long market."
My own judgment is a bit firmer than the market, but I'm not stubborn:
70,000 yuan isn't impossible; it only deserves to be touched if "three things happen simultaneously."
• Spot ETFs have turned positive weekly net inflows and have maintained momentum for two consecutive weeks
• The Jackson Hole central bank is taking a dovish tone, with real interest rate expectations trending downward
• Before 8/28 CME maturity, perpetual funding fees will not explode or there will be no leverage to kill longs
Currently, BTC is stuck around 64,000 yuan. The 69,000–72,000 yuan mark the "cost wall" for chasing higher chips in the first half of the year. Every time it approaches, some people break evens and then run. The true meaning of 26% is not "won't rise," but rather that the probability of "falling back immediately upon touching" is much higher than "holding above 70,000 and closing at the monthly moving average." If I had to give a subjective score, I think at least 68,000+ within the month is 35%–40%, but if it closes above 70,000, I'd give at most 15%–18%, which is lower than Polymarket.
In terms of trading, I don't bet on 'can it reach 70,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
• Reduced volume and touched 68,000 → reduced position, not chasing
• Closed above 65,500 in four hours of increased volume→ holding a base position at 69,000
• Weekly closing above 60,000→ Don't believe any bullish rally narratives—save yourself first
Predicting market probabilities is a mood thermometer, not a roadmap. What 26% told me is: the consensus now assumes "August is a chopstick month, not a breakout month"—which matches BTC's history of several consecutive months of weak August.
What about you? Do you think this is a "fake breakout luring bulls" or a "quietly touching 70,000"? Talk about your position and stop-loss in the comments, and by the way, the probability of giving 70,000 yuan. $BTC #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 很多人看到这个消息，第一反应是“利空风险资产”。
但我更关心的是：资金为什么愿意要求更高的长期回报？
30年期美债收益率创下近19年新高，本质上反映的是市场正在重新定价未来几十年的风险，包括通胀预期、财政赤字、长期利率中枢以及美债供给压力。
这意味着，市场开始要求更高的风险补偿，而不是简单地认为未来一定会快速降息。
不过，对交易来说，我认为有一点比消息本身更重要：
消息公布后，资金怎么走，比消息写了什么更重要。
如果资金继续流向长期国债，收益率可能逐步回落；如果资金依旧抛售美债、收益率维持高位，那么高估值成长股、AI板块以及加密市场短期都可能继续承受估值压力。
很多时候，宏观只是叙事，真正决定价格的是资金行为。
这也是我越来越认同的一点：
不要预测消息，要观察资金；不要试图解释每一根K线，而是看市场是否认可这个逻辑。
如果市场能够在30年期美债收益率创新高的背景下依然保持强势，那反而说明风险偏好比想象中更强；如果资金开始撤离，再好的故事也很难抵挡估值收缩。
交易不是猜新闻，而是跟随资金已经做出的选择。US Treasury Bonds hit a new high! With 10 million USD right now, how should you make investment decisions?
Warning ⚠️: Don't overheat your mind with hot money; make decisions calmly.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 5.27%, the highest since July 2007; 2Y, 10Y, and 30Y yields were 4.28%, 4.75%, and 5.27% respectively, with the curve steepering noticeably. Essentially, it is still a return of dollars, which can be understood as one of the tools of tight monetary policy. At this time, invest in hot money—don't get too worked up.
Although the FOMC maintained rates at 9–3, three votes supported rate hikes. Inflation, fiscal supply, and term premiums "three strikes" resonate. Above 5% is both a window for yield locking and a duration trap: long-term bonds are phased out, short- and medium-term bonds, TIPS and cash are prioritized, and growth stocks are deleveraging.
Don't gamble on "interest rates peaking."
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高 $BTC $ETH 📊 Relief Rally on the table, but nothing is set yet
Trump just hinted the U.S. could pause planned strikes on Iran if talks move fast. On the table: reopening the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear progress, and broader regional security.
For markets, that’s a short-term de-escalation signal. If it holds, oil risk premiums drop, and stocks + crypto get a sentiment boost.
But no deal is signed. Talks still need approval, and any collapse or new tension around Hormuz flips optimism back to fear fast.
👀 Watch:
- Iran’s official response
- Agreement details + timing
- Shipping traffic through Hormuz staying normal
Until then, markets will jump on every headline.
A real deal helps stocks, crypto, and cools oil/gold. A breakdown brings risk-off right back.
Best play now: patience + risk management. Don’t chase the first move.
#DailyOrbit #30YYieldAt19YHigh
#SpaceXUnlockLooms @OKX Orbit 🔥不是“打不打伊朗”的问题，是 Brent 已经把 100 美元的战争溢价焊死在盘里了#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施，使馆发撤离预警
8 月 1 日这份信号，比 6 月那次停火破局还狠：
美以预案从“打核设施/军事点”升级到 发电厂 + 炼油厂 + 德黑兰供电系统——这是奔着把伊朗民生底盘掀翻去的，不是象征性空袭
同一天美驻中东 10 国使馆齐发撤离警报，CH-47 重型运输直升机已进中东，中央司令部草拟的是 10–14 天高强度轰炸 方案，战前部署已经摆上台
霍尔木兹这一头：伊朗“波斯湾海峡管理局”7/31 称无法通行，船舶日通行从 22 艘骤降到 5 艘（-77%）；美军说“仍开放”，但克普勒和 MarineTraffic 都确认战险保费和绕航成本已经把海湾出口卡住了
传导到加密只有一句话：
油价先涨 → 通胀预期再起 → 美联储 9 月降息被收回 → 美元走强 + 风险资产集体承压。
布油 7 月累涨 23%、一度重回 100 美元/桶；8/2 早上特朗普一句“暂缓”，暗盘直接闪崩，但还在 90 上方晃 。这说明市场不是在赌“和平”，是在赌 “今晚没打 ≠ 下周不打”。
所以 $BTC 这几天横在 6.3w 附近、ETH 跟着美股一起缩量，不是弱，是大资金先把杠杆拆了——真等 8 月某天凌晨一条“德黑兰电厂起火”的 push 弹出来，那时候再谈避险买盘就晚了。
#美方委托高盛与摩根士丹利干预日元 #财报观察员: Next Thursday's draw will be held, with Circle as the grand finale
🔥 Next Thursday's earnings reports will be explosive: Palantir, AMD, SpaceX, Circle—who will be the next dark horse?
Guys, next week's earnings calendar is fully loaded.
Palantir after market close on August 3, AMD and SpaceX after market on August 4, and Circle before market on August 5. Four days and four events—AI, chips, space, stablecoins—all gathered.
The last round of the seven giants' earnings has already set the tone for the market—revenue beating expectations is just a ticket; the guidance for next quarter is the real test. Microsoft rose 15.5%, Meta fell 9%, and Apple fell 4% in after-hours trading. The data looks good, but the market's knife only recognizes one thing: whether the future can be even better.
Palantir (after market close on August 3): The touchstone for AI software
The market expects PLTR's Q2 revenue to be about $1.81 billion, up 81% year-on-year; Adjusted earnings per share were approximately $0.35, up 119% year-over-year. The company's own guidance is to expect revenue between $1.797 billion and $1.801 billion.
PLTR has already fallen about 30% this year, and the market is concerned about two things: valuations that are too high, and competition from new AI models is becoming increasingly fierce. The key to this financial report is not whether it exceeds expectations, but whether the growth rate of US business can be sustained and the actual commercialization progress of AI platforms.
If it merely brushes past the guidance line, the market may not be very friendly.
AMD (August 4 after-hours): Data centers are the only answer
The market expects AMD's Q2 revenue to be about $11.3 billion, up approximately 48% year-on-year; Adjusted earnings per share were approximately $1.61, more than three times that of the same period last year. The company's own guidance is $11.2 billion ± $300 million.
The only number that truly determines stock price trends is data center revenue. Analysts expect this sector to reach $6.5 billion, doubling year-on-year. AMD has already risen more than 120% this year, but recently the AI chip sector has pulled back overall, and overhyping expectations can actually cause problems.
If data center growth doesn't reach 100%, the after-hours look may not look good.
SpaceX (after market close on August 4): First earnings report hits the 100 billion mark unlocked
SPCX's Q2 revenue is expected to be between $6.8 billion and $7.1 billion, far higher than the $4.7 billion in Q1. However, the profit side is still expected to be a loss, with losses per share ranging from about $0.20 to $0.29.
The market is truly focused on two things: Starlink's user growth rate and the revenue contribution from AI infrastructure. The connectivity business (mainly Starlink) generated $3.26 billion in revenue in the first quarter, making it the largest source of income. The AI infrastructure sector may be the biggest surprise.
But just two days after the earnings report, on August 6, the first batch of 911.5 million shares was unlocked, valued at nearly $100 billion at current prices. No matter how impressive the financial reports are, the shadow of selling pressure is unavoidable.
Circle (Pre-market on August 5): How profitable is the stablecoin business?
CRCL expects Q2 revenue of about $735 million, up approximately 12% year-on-year; Earnings per share were about $0.19, compared to a loss of $0.43 in the same period last year.
USDC's circulating scale and reserve yield are the core highlights. In the first quarter, Circle's retained yield was 41.4%, already exceeding the company's full-year guidance upper limit of 38%-40%. However, analysts are concerned that rising distribution costs could lead to lower yields.
The essence of stablecoin business is simple—the larger the reserve and the higher the interest rate, the greater the profit. Now it depends on whether USDC's circulating supply continues to expand.
Four financial reports, four different logics. PLTR is betting on whether AI software can sustainably monetize; AMD is betting on whether data center chips can continue to double; SPCX is betting on whether Starlink and AI infrastructure can withstand the pressure of unlocking hundreds of billions; CRCL is betting on how much bigger USDC's reserve cake can grow.
This week, three rounds of tough papers have been delivered on the crypto side—Coinbase's revenue fell about 18.5% year-on-year, Robinhood's crypto revenue dropped nearly 40%, and Tether earned $1.5 billion in a single quarter. Circle is the last card.
Which one do you most want to see?
Share your position and judgment 👇 in the comments sectionBitcoin mining difficulty dropped by 14% from the year's peak. Bitcoin mining difficulty has dropped again, now down to 126.23 trillion, lower than last year. Click to follow the Lige trend swing strategy
This is the second time in history that this has experienced a year-on-year decline. The last time was in 2021, when China retired mining, when half of the network's hash rate was completely wiped out. This time, the reason is different—not a one-size-fits-all policy, but that miners themselves can't take it anymore.
With prices weakening, revenue being squeezed, power resources being taken away by AI, and Texas's frequent power rationing, computing power has been gradually declining. To put it bluntly, mining is no longer as profitable; some mining farms have stopped expanding, and some have even quit altogether.
Some people think the reduction in difficulty is a positive sign, as miners have less selling pressure and less pressure. Logically, there's no problem, but you have to see why the price dropped. If the price increases and the computing power can't keep up, causing difficulty reductions, that's a signal of demand. Now, miners are forced to exit due to cost pressure, which often happens during the coldest market periods.
More importantly, miners themselves have expectations for the future. Forward market pricing shows that by year-end, hash prices will be just over thirty dollars, about the same as now. Miners themselves don't think their income can recover, indicating the industry's view of the second half of the year is rather conservative.
This has had limited direct impact on BTC's short-term price; difficulty adjustments are lagging indicators reflecting the network state over the past two weeks. But looking at the long term, miners' operating pressure and hash rate contraction are often one of the characteristics of the cycle bottom.
What are the typical signs of a bear market ending? Miners couldn't withstand shutdowns, hash rates kept dropping, and small mining farms were liquidated and exited. These signals are emerging, but they don't mean prices will rise immediately. The bottom is ground down, not dropped. Don't rush in to buy the dip just because hash rate drops; let the market clear out those who need to be sold first.#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
Last week, the market was quite volatile. US Treasury yields are rising, tech stocks continue to bombard earnings reports, the Fed's stance is hard to guess, and the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain. Although gold is still above $4,000, it hasn't shown strong aggressive momentum, closing around $4,043 on Friday. With the dollar and yields rising, gold struggles a bit
For the crypto world, macro is still an unavoidable trend. Especially for US Treasury yields and the US dollar, if they remain strong, liquidity expectations for risk assets will be easily suppressed, and BTC and knockoffs are unlikely to be comfortable either. Conversely, if employment data continues to weaken, the market may start trading rate cut expectations again, and risk assets may see a wave of sentiment to repair $BTC $SPCX
如果要“畅想”太空算力的未来的话
至少有以下几个方面的“可能优势”，会让我在现在这个时间点，认为spacex应该去推进尝试
1、美军太空军现在的核心趋势是推进星座体系，金穹就是代表项目，spacex前段时间签订的多项大单也是一部分，而这些作战体系对于算力需求会是台阶式暴涨跃升，尤其是超大规模遥感星座和跟踪指示星座，最优方案必然是在轨通过激光通信传输给算力星座进行“天数天算”
2、算力构建形式的差异，有规模效益的预期。对于轨道算力很多人预期是极其昂贵，但是以spacex的计划而言，算力星座本身是离散卫星组成，而卫星作为“工业产品”本身是有规模生产效益，同时算力星座和地面算力中心“建设越多问题越多”的预期不同，理论上算力星座的规模拓展只受传输速率影响
3、算力交付形式差异，地面算力中心不可能“边建设边交付算力”，算力中心必须要配套设施有一定完成度，机柜调试一定进度，才能上线形成可交付算力，但是星座从第一批算力卫星开始上天，就可以形成可交付算力，如果说地面算力中心的算力交付函数是“大台阶式的跃迁函数”，轨道算力的交付函数就是“小台阶的跃迁函数”。现在很多人对于能“更快的形成可交付算力”的溢价重视程度还不够On the weekend of August 2, 2026, here's a brief summary of next week's SPCX super unlock and Q2 earnings analysis
First, looking ahead to next week's nonfarm payroll week, just after this week's super central bank week, the nonfarm payroll week is about to arrive, another critical juncture. I have always said that the major nonfarm payroll data is the most important data of the month;
SPCX unlocked 911.5 million shares on August 6, valued at $98.5 billion based on Friday's closing price. The Q2 earnings report was released after market close on August 4. The market currently forecasts Q2 revenue: about $6.8 billion to $7.1 billion, EPS expected loss, approximately -$0.20 to -$0.29!
SPCX will continue to unlock a large number of units in batches over the next 180 days, generating high hype, but revenue and earnings per share are nowhere near enough to support its 1.4 trillion yuan market cap! Therefore, it is still recommended to keep tracking and following the market, but not to bottom-fish;
Will the US stock market performance next week still be questionable? Although SNDK rebounded in the last two days of this week, it was not enough to reverse the current downward trend. Moreover, with the main focus next week on SPCX, most capital is cautious, so next week's trading opportunities in US stocks are likely not as good as this week's;
BTC support resistance levels are at 67135/62350/61000
Yesterday's BTC weekend squat will definitely give you a long opportunity. The early morning low of 62,228 has already hit the support level of 62,350, so this expectation has basically come true. For squatting, we'll have to wait for Monday's specific rhythm. Next week's trading opportunities should be greater than US stocks, so it's worth watching.
ETH support resistance levels are 2225/2000/1800/1715
Er Bing follows Da Bing's trend. Recently, the advice repeatedly mentioned in livestreams is to prioritize Da Bing, with Er Bing leaning on it;
XAU support resistance positions are 3980/4020/4110
On weekends, there will likely be limited opportunities for narrow fluctuations. If you squat deeply on Monday, consider buying an extra spot on your first position;
SNDK support resistance levels are 1485-1510/1110/1000
It's best to wait and see what happens. Next week, it's not recommended to make a move—wait and see, then look for an opportunity.
Trading advice does not constitute any investment basis: Next week, I suggest focusing on gold first, because the major nonfarm payroll data will have the greatest impact on gold and the US dollar index, followed by the big market, and finally US stocks. Don't use the inertia of the May and June US stock market rally to guide next week's US stock market operations. Go with the trend and adapt with the market's changes!
#长鑫科技市值突破4万亿元 🚨 The market just did something that should make every investor stop and think.
Bad news came out...
Yet stocks rallied. Bitcoin refused to break. And money kept flowing into risk assets.
That's not normal.
The 30-year Treasury yield is sitting near its highest level in almost 20 years—a move that would normally pressure both stocks and crypto.
But instead of panic...
The market kept buying.
Then came Amazon.
❌ Weak guidance. ✅ The stock jumped 9%.
That's a reminder that markets don't move because of headlines.
They move because of expectations, positioning, and where liquidity is already flowing.
For Bitcoin, this is especially interesting.
In previous cycles, rising long-term yields while $BTC held key support would've been a major warning sign.
This time, the market is telling a different story.
If investors are becoming more concerned about long-term debt and currency debasement than short-term interest rates, scarce assets like Bitcoin could start trading under an entirely new narrative.
Is that confirmed?
Not yet.
But one thing is becoming harder to ignore:
Price isn't following the old playbook anymore.
The biggest edge right now isn't reacting to the news.
It's watching where liquidity goes after the news.
That's where the real story is usually written.
Just market observations—not financial advice. ⚡
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading #MarketAnalysis #OKXOrbit #DailyOrbit
#DailyOrbit You think you're buying cheap projects, but in reality, you're buying chips with high FDV and low circulation—you're not an investor at all, you're VC exit liquidity.
Although prices appear "low," behind it are actually monthly unlocked selling pressures. Unlocking means selling—this is the structural reality, there's no way around it. This scenario has played out countless times: ARB, OP, STRK, ZK, BLAST, MANTA, ALT, DYM, TIA and other L2 and infrastructure projects have been completely crushed when large-scale unlocking arrives. SUI, APT, SEI, PYTH, JUP, W, EIGEN, REZ, and ETHFI—these L1 and oracle projects—have all met the same fate. The sword of Damocles hangs overhead and is real.
Funds will only flow where supply is clean. DeFi and RWA leaders are the true winners: ONDO, MKR, AAVE, UNI, PENDLE, ENA, SNX, CRV, COMP, LDO, RPL—these projects have real income, unlock predictability, and no surprises. Projects with real demand in AI and DePIN are also strong: TAO, FET, NEAR, RNDR, AKT, AIOZ, GRT, THETA, FIL, AR. And what about the gaming sector? GALA, BEAM, IMX, AXS, SAND, MANA, PIXEL, PORTAL, PRIME, ILV—these are basically repeatedly crushed by ecosystem unlocks. The coin price is always paying for the unlock, and no matter how good the trend is, it can't hold up.
What's the most ironic? The burned retail investors all hid in Meme: PEPE, WIF, BONK, FLOKI, POPCAT, BOME, DOGE, SHIB, MOG, BRETT. No VC lock-up period, no unlock table, only relatively fair issuance.
So, before looking at the price, let's first look at tokenomics. Coins with low circulation and high FDV are tools for VCs to take over, not for you to make money. ** In this market, choosing the right track and supply structure is a hundred times more important than choosing the right price. Fred Thiel, CEO of a Bitcoin mining company, has just stated that Bitcoin should not be used for payments. This might be the most honest viewpoint of the year.
🧩 Where exactly did Bitcoin as a currency collapse?
Teal pointed out two fundamental gaps:
- Stability: Businesses need reliable units of valuation. If BTC fluctuates by 2% between quotation and settlement, someone will bear the loss. Companies cannot plan around this uncertainty
- Speed and scale: Commercial scenarios require near-instant settlement and handle processing power of thousands of transactions per second (TPS). Bitcoin's 10-minute block rhythm was never designed for this kind of workload
Then came the shift: payments for the AI era, with stablecoins 🏛️ as the answer
But the market has already taken action:
- Stablecoins processed over $4 billion in transaction volume (TRM Labs) in the first half of 2025, an 83% year-on-year increase
- Market capitalization reached $317 billion, growing about 50% in 2025 alone (Federal Reserve data)
- AI proxy payment infrastructure is being built on stablecoin channels rather than BTC-based
Meanwhile, on Bitcoin's side: fees are at historic lows, miners rely more on block subsidies, and the actual utility of on-chain payments remains theoretical. Til himself is also transforming into an AI data center—electricity sales for AI computing now exceed mining revenue.# SKHYNIX's Storm Eve: Under geopolitical clouds, bulls and bears are holding back their big moves within a narrow range
Tonight's crypto market was especially lively: INTC, ZEC, and LINK saw their capital activity climb together, while TLM suddenly plunged 12%. Yet beyond the hustle and bustle, SKHYNIX appeared unusually quiet—both the 4-hour and 1-hour volatility were shrinking, and the candlestick lines were like a tightened spring, waiting for a release direction. And this direction is very likely coming from the Persian Gulf. News that the U.S. is preparing to strike Iran's energy facilities has prompted global risk assets to reconsider their pricing logic. Under such geopolitical pressure, SKHYNIX's wait-and-see attitude has become the most alarming signal: funds neither dare to chase short nor to bottom-fish.
Zooming in on the 4-hour chart, SKHYNIX's structure is not optimistic. The most recent swing point sequence is LH, HL, LH, LL, LH, HL—the highs keep falling, the lows occasionally pull back, a typical bearish arrangement. Most importantly, the latest BOS occurred at $884.17, pointing downward, marking another breakout of a valid support for bears. 884.17 acts like a magnet, drawing prices closer to it. Meanwhile, the OI quadrant shows price_up_oi_down: prices have just rebounded slightly, but open interest is declining in tandem. This shows that the driving force behind the rebound is not new bulls, but bears covering and closing positions. In other words, the attitude of big money is: they don't want to short chase, but they absolutely don't want to buy in here. Eight effective zones overlap, countless trapped positions waiting for rescue—under these circumstances, retail investor sentiment alone is hard to reverse.
But switching to the 1-hour chart, the story takes another route. The 1-hour swing tag evolves from LL, HH, HL, LH, LL, HH, with the low point rising and the high point refreshing. The latest structural event CHoCH appeared at $1129.26, trending upward — this is the first effective rebound under the 4-hour bearish structure. The latest Delta is at 2880.54, with active buy orders clearly dominating. There are 6 effective zones at the 1-hour level, with bulls and bears repeatedly torn between bulls and bears here. As for CVD, when the low point falls, CVD moves in sync with the decline without divergence, indicating that bearish forces have been genuinely released; However, the latest low has been confirmed, and the price quickly recovered, which actually reinforced the implication of a reversal after the "fake fall." The funding rate is currently only 0.0001, at the 64th percent historical percentile, and sentiment between bulls and bears is not high. There have also been no clear changes in the large order data. Looking at the liquidation data, on July 29, OI decreased by 7.06%, on July 30 by 7.99%, and on July 31 by a sharp drop of 18.78%. Each time accompanied by an amplification of ATR, this is a sign of a chain of lever washouts. When floating chips are swept away, the market often chooses the lightest direction.
So, what is SKHYNIX's current direction? My answer is: short-term bullish but medium-term remains bearish. Right now, it looks more like a recovery after a decline than a trend reversal. For the specific trading plan, I present three scenarios:
Scenario 1: If the price can hold above $1129.26 and holds no pullback, a light long position can be considered. Entry reference is 1130-1140, stop loss at 1110, first target 1180, second target 1250, position not exceeding 20%.
Scenario 2: If prices repeatedly resist in the 1129-1140 range and form lower highs on the 4-hour chart, go short. Entry reference around 1120, stop loss at 1155, first target 950, second target 884, position 30%.
Scenario 3: If the price continues to fluctuate between 884 and 1129, do nothing. Wait for the market to choose its own direction before following along. Remember, before a breakthrough, any operation is a gamble.
On the news front, last Thursday, the SKHYNIX development team submitted the v0.4.2 core upgrade code on GitHub, focusing on adjusting the mainnet gas mechanism, which sparked enthusiastic community response. But this technological advantage was completely overshadowed by sudden geopolitical risks. The U.S. is preparing to strike Iran's energy facilities, and the embassy has issued evacuation warnings, keeping global markets on edge. If the conflict escalates, traditional safe-haven assets will be the first to rise, and the crypto market will be drained in the short term; But if fiat confidence wavers, Bitcoin may regain buying interest in "digital gold." For a mid-cap token like SKHYNIX, the biggest concern is liquidity contraction—you'll find that real drops often happen within the second hour after the news spreads.
So, what do you think? Will SKHYNIX first start a rebound above 1129.26, or will it slide back into the abyss of 884.17? In the shadow of the US-Iran conflict, would you dare to take action in this position? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section.
—— These are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading. ——
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施, the embassy issued an evacuation warning $SKHYNIX $INTC $APT $TLM $ZEC $OP $LINK Bitcoin 又进入 X 的地区趋势，讨论很容易马上滑向价格方向。但这次更值得拆开的，是资产热度和协议共识并不是一回事。
公开趋势记录显示，8 月 1 日 19:51:23 UTC，加拿大 X 趋势把 Bitcoin 列入前 50；CoinGecko 当前页面显示 BTC 约 63,464 美元、全市场占比约 56.7%。这些只能说明关注度和市场位置，不能证明某个协议提案会成功。
Bitcoin BIPs 仓库把 BIP-110 列为共识软分叉规范草案，提案目标是暂时限制部分非金融数据占用区块空间；独立资料显示，矿工信号支持仍低于 1%，而计划窗口需要更高支持率。最容易被误读的地方是：BIP 编号不等于网络已激活，X 上争论激烈也不等于全网达成共识。
普通用户应把“讨论热度、提案状态、矿工信号、最终共识”分开看。BIP-110 后续是否进入激活或引发兼容性争议仍未确定；不要把社交平台的站队贴当成升级通知，也不要据此改变钱包或交易安排。$SOL 链上活动 – 活跃地址新高与 DEX 萎缩的矛盾
👥 Solana 网络的日活跃地址数近期达到 120 万，接近 2024 年牛市峰值，表明用户基数仍在。但问题在于 DEX 成交量却大幅下降，过去一周日均仅 8.2 亿美元，较 3 月份下降 67%。说明用户更多是在“撸空投”或转账，而非实际交易。
💰 稳定币流动性：USDC 和 USDT 在 Solana 上的总供应量为 72 亿美元，较上月微增 3%，但远低于 2025 年高点的 110 亿。资金并没有大规模流入。
🔗 链上大额转账：过去 24 小时，价值超过 10 万美元的 SOL 转账次数为 1,240 次，较前日减少 18%。鲸鱼活动明显降温。
📦 交易所净流量：SOL 在过去 4 个月持续净流入交易所，累计约 2,300 万美元等值的 SOL 被存入，说明有抛售压力。但近 3 日净流量转为小幅流出（约 120 万美元），可能是一个止跌信号。
🧐 质押数据：$SOL 质押率约 68%，处于较高水平，锁定供应减少了抛压。但与此同时，质押收益率已降至 5.6%，吸引力不足，可能导致部分质押者解锁卖出。
🔮 综合判断：链上数据显示 SOL 处于“有用户但无资金”的尴尬期。活跃地址不能单独构成买盘，需要等待 DeFi 协议收益率回升或新叙事驱动。#30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即 #财报观察员：下周四场开奖，Circle压轴 SNDK Faces Dramatic Turnover Under the US-Iran War: Is 1248 the Last Line of Defense for Bulls?
News that the U.S. is preparing to strike Iran's energy facilities is like a stone being thrown into a calm lake. With the embassy evacuation warning, global market risk aversion surged sharply. Cryptocurrencies have not become safe havens: SOXS fell 7.7% in 24 hours, MMT plunged 13.2%, while UNI bucked the trend and rose 2.8%—within the same market, capital is being reshuffled. SNDK did not make it onto the hot list, but its 4-hour volatility shows "normal," while its 1-hour volatility is "contracting." This quiet state is often the most dangerous prelude before a market change.
Cut the candlestick to 4 hours, and you'll see a typical short-term encirclement battle. The recent swing sequence is HH→LL→LH→LL→LH→HL, with bears completing a crisp BOS at $972.2, officially breaking the four-hour level structure. The six effective zones below act like fortifications, warning that rebounds won't be easy. However, the OI quadrant gave a price_up_oi_up signal: when prices rose, no funds escaped, and instead, new positions moved in. This is not a simple short-filled move, but rather incremental funds beginning to gamble at the bottom. The answer to the big cycle is not simple: the trend is still suppressed by bears, but some have quietly built positions at the bottom.
Now, let's look at the hour-level micro-level gameplay. The oscillation sequence is LL→HH→HL→LH→LL→HH, with the latest candlestick triggering a bullish CHoCH at $1248.85—a positive breakdown of the bearish structure. Delta's latest value is 720.14, with active buyers dominating; however, CVD did not confirm divergence at the low, and there are four effective 1-hour zones, indicating that both bulls and bears have not fully relaxed. Funding rate 0.0005, 0.8th percentile — long leverage is becoming crowded, and a cleanup could happen at any time. In fact, in the early hours and evening of July 30, open interest twice dropped by more than 5%, corresponding to sharp candlesticks of 2.39 and 1.71x ATR. That was the aftershock after the lever cleared. Big-order data has yet to appear, and the main players are still playing shortstop.
So my conclusion is straightforward: short-term bullish bias, medium-term limited by the 4-hour structure. 1248.85 is the watershed. If the price holds above 1248.85 and the Delta does not turn negative on a pullback, I will try to go long with 10% of my total position. Reference entry price is 1248.85-1250, stop loss at 1228, first target 1320, second target 1380. If the price falls below 1248.85, this CHoCH is likely to become a bullish trap. I will reverse to short in the 1248-1250 range, with a stop loss at 1265 and targets at 1200 and 1150. If the price has been sideways near 1248.85 for more than four hours, then exit the screen—a market without direction is not worth betting on.
The news is also amplifying fluctuations. Over the past week, SNDK's "RWA tokenization" testnet activity has continued to ferment, with rumors circulating in the community about negotiations with licensed custodians, and the number of addresses has increased by more than 20%. The authorities have never confirmed this, but the funds are willing to bet on the story. Meanwhile, the US-Iran situation and the embassy withdrawal warning caused sharp fluctuations in the US dollar index and gold, making SNDK, a high-beta coin, naturally a battleground for rapid capital inflow and outflow.
Ultimately, technical analysis is just a game of probability. Facing a geopolitical black swan that could strike at any moment, are you ready to cut your losses? If 1248.85 happens to be your cost line, would you choose to keep holding on or go decisively? Feel free to share your plans in the comments section.
—— These are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading. ——
#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施, the embassy issued an evacuation warning
#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施, the embassy issued an evacuation warning $SNDK $SOXS $MMT $UNI $FARTCOIN $ICP $OL #SPCX's first financial report will be released, with a $100 billion unlocking imminent
1. The financial report itself may not be the key; the key is whether there will be buyers to absorb the $100 billion unlocking after the report.
Morgan Stanley expects Q2 revenue of $6.75 billion but still a loss of $0.35 per share. Q1 net loss was $4.28 billion, with AI infrastructure capital expenditure of $7.72 billion in a single quarter, accounting for 76% of the group's total capital investment. The market is more concerned about management's guidance on Starlink's profitability path, Starship development timeline, and AI computing power deployment. The stock price has dropped from 225 to 108, indicating that market expectations for fundamentals are already very low. The quality of the financial report is not the deciding factor; the deciding factor is whether there are enough buyers willing to take the shares at the current price when the unlocking selling pressure arrives.
2. The unlocking scale far exceeds the current circulating shares; this is not "unlocking" but a "flood release."
On August 6, 911.5 million shares will be unlocked, which at $108 per share is close to a $100 billion market value. The current public float is only about 640 million shares. Tradable shares will almost double overnight. Moreover, this is only the first batch; by the end of the year, tradable shares may increase from 639 million to 5.33 billion shares, an increase of more than seven times. This is not unlocking; it is a flood release.
3. Early investors' costs are extremely low, and the impulse to take profits is unstoppable.
Before SpaceX went public, its valuation in the private market was far below the IPO price. Early employees and investors may have costs of only a few dollars or even less. Even if the stock price falls from 225 to 108, it still represents returns of dozens or even hundreds of times for them. More than two-thirds of institutional investors are bearish on SpaceX's stock performance before the end of the year. This is not a matter of "optimistic or not," but a matter of "to sell or not." They will sell.
4. Regardless of the financial report's quality, the crypto market may be drained.
If the financial report falls short of expectations and no one absorbs the unlocked shares, institutions will need to sell other assets to supplement margin, and crypto assets are among the most liquid options. If the financial report exceeds expectations and institutions want to absorb the shares, they will also need to sell other assets to free up cash. In either case, the crypto market is the one being drained. BTC is fluctuating around 62000-63000, ETH is struggling in the 1830-1880 range; the answer is that money is being drained.
Morgan Stanley calls this SpaceX's "maximum dynamic pressure"—the moment of greatest stress during rocket ascent. But the real pressure may not only be on SpaceX itself.
August 4 financial report, August 6 unlocking. This week's crypto market's most painful liquidity vacuum may just be beginning. Recently, BTC has continued to decline to around 62,000. I believe everyone's holding experience has not been good. Today, let's talk about BTC's short- to medium-term trend and institutional investors' views on it, as well as applicable strategies. Current core facts: $BTC First, the current core facts (as of around August 2): ETF capital inflows: In the first half of 2026 (especially May and June), there was a large-scale net outflow (cumulative about $5 billion), with June single-month outflows setting a record. In July, there was a net inflow of about $172 million overall, ending two consecutive months of large redemptions, but there was another significant outflow at the end of the month (for example, July 31 saw a single-day net outflow of about $265 million). The total annual net outflow remains substantial. From the data, institutions are generally cautious; blindly going long here is definitely not rational. The correlation between BTC and US stocks: Since 2023, BTC's correlation with US stocks has been rising significantly. BTC has an average correlation of 0.5 with the S&P 500 (0.29 in 2024). BTC's average correlation with the Nasdaq 100 is 0.52 (compared to 0.23 in 2024). This indicates that by 2025, the linkage between the two will be significantly strengthened, with BTC becoming more like a highly volatile risk asset (especially closely linked to tech stocks), mainly driven by institutional adoption (spot ETFs), shared risk appetite, and macro liquidity. Investors who frequently travel between US stocks and cryptocurrencies will clearly sense this trend, as the two often rise and fall together. Here's a key point: US stocks are currently at high levelsOpening: The market is never short of gimmicks, but today's "main course" is not just a $1000 BONK and $PENGU celebration. After news broke that the U.S. was planning to strike Iran's energy facilities, risk aversion quickly spread from the oil market to global risk assets. Meanwhile, AAPL's repeated tug-of-war near $312 serves as the best footnote to this sentiment—volatility on the 4-hour chart is expanding, while the 1-hour chart is contracting like a taut spring. Both bulls and bears are waiting for a reason—a reason that allows them to bet with peace of mind.
Large Cycle: Pull the perspective back to the 4-hour chart. The recent swing sequence is HL, HH, HL, HH, LL, LH—the first four steps are still the classic lifting structure, but the arrival of LL disrupts the rhythm. The price rebounded at the high, breaking below the key previous low, forming a bearish CHoCH and confirming the $300.5 level. This means the 4-hour trend has regressed from a one-sided rise to a wide oscillation, leaving the market with four effective zones between 300 and 320, each level marked by scars from old bullish and bearish battles. It is worth noting that this break did not trigger panic selling; instead, funds quietly picked up shares at the low level. The junior division was the first to signal a counterattack.
Small cycle: 1-hour microstructure provides clearer answers. The swing sequence LL, LH, HL, LH, HL, HH, a complete bottom-raising structure has emerged, and the latest CHoCH confirmed the direction at $311.58—bulls. The latest Delta value is +639.7, indicating that active buying holds an absolute advantage; The 1-hour OI quadrant shows price_up_oi_up, which is a typical long position increase pattern of "price rises and open interest increases." But don't rush to celebrate: although the funding rate is only 0.0001, the percentile is as high as 0.97, meaning the bulls in the derivatives market are already extremely crowded. The forced liquidation clues are empty, and the large order data does not show institutional movement, indicating that this rally is more of a combined effort of retail investors and small and medium funds. To sum it up in one sentence: short-term trajectory upward, but the powder magazine is full of firecrackers, ready to be detonated by a match at any moment.
Comprehensive judgment and trading plan: Two time cycles are in conflict—4 hours bearish, 1 hour bullish. My principle is: minor levels obey large levels, but before the structure of major levels is fixed, all small level gains should be treated as rebounds first. Therefore, the trading plan should be tailored to specific scenarios:
- Scenario 1 (pullback to go long, main plan): If the price pulls back to 311.58 and the 1-hour Delta remains positive, you can take a light long position between 311.5 and 312.5, with a stop loss at 309.5, first target at 318, second target at 325. Position control is kept within 2% of total capital.
- Scenario 2 (Volume Breakout and Long Chase): If the price stabilizes above 320 with increased volume, increase positions or chase long positions, move stop-loss up to 313, target 330. However, it should be noted that chasing long positions is only suitable for short-term trading, as the 4-hour bearish structure has not been fully recovered.
- Scenario 3 (Structural failure turns to bearish): If the price falls below 311.58 again and the 1-hour Delta turns negative, it indicates the bullish structure has been disproven. Long positions must be unconditionally exited, and you can reverse to light short positions, entering at 310.5, stopping loss at 313, and targeting 300.5.
- If the price is narrowly oscillating between 311-313 with no directional bias, then wait and see. When the market does not provide opportunities, being short is also a form of position.
News and macro: Recent news about Apple has also made this tug-of-war between bulls and bears more substantial. The quarterly earnings released last week showed service revenue grew nearly 15% year-on-year, but hardware sales remained somewhat weak; Meanwhile, supply chain issues with AI phone yield have cooled market expectations for its September launch event. On the geopolitical risk side, the oil price center has risen and U.S. Treasury yields have increased, putting pressure on high-valuation tech stocks. But Apple's strong free cash flow and buyback plan give it an extra layer of "quasi-defense" when withdrawing funds. As a result, AAPL became a target for those who "want to run but are reluctant to run"—this is precisely the root cause of the intensified volatility.
Before I conclude, I want to ask you: do you see this $312 bullish energy wave as a "rally" before a major reversal, or as a "last flash" in a 4-hour bearish trend? Are your positions and stop-losses ready?
—— These are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading. ——
#美方委托高盛与摩根士丹利干预日元
#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施, the embassy issued an evacuation warning $AAPL $1000 BONK $PENGU $US $HYPE $INTC $MUU $OKB Breaking news: Senate Majority Leader John Thune has publicly confirmed that there will be no full House final vote before the August summer recess.
1. Short-term window
Legislation is completely suspended during the August recess; After the Senate resumed in early September, there was only about three weeks of deliberation, theoretically one more chance to attempt a vote.
2. Biggest obstacle: Election cycle
With the U.S. midterm elections approaching, politicians are shifting their focus to campaigning; Once the intense campaign cycle begins, controversial crypto bills struggle to gain room for cross-party negotiation.
3. Mainstream market views
If it cannot be implemented within 2026, the next appropriate legislative window will be significantly delayed, with some analysts predicting it may be postponed until around 2030. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion unlock is imminent SOL（Solana）正处在一个微妙的多空分水岭。当市场目光聚焦于地缘局势的戏剧性变化时，链上的资金却在用真金白银悄悄投票。在撰写本文时，#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施，使馆发撤离预警 的消息正在发酵，避险情绪与风险偏好激烈碰撞。这种宏观不确定性让大资金动作变得异常谨慎，而SOL恰好收敛到了必须选择方向的临界点。
此刻的盘面像紧绷的弓弦。4小时图上，SOL最近六个摆动点呈现“LL、LH、LL、LH、LL、LH”的锯齿节奏，每一次反弹都未能突破前高，价格重心缓慢下移。刚刚确认的BOS（破位结构）方向是**bearish**，关键触发价在**70.51**，这意味着一轮完整的下降结构已经形成。当前4小时有效区域多达7个，说明下方支撑带密集，但多头反击缺乏力度。
更耐人寻味的是资金面的信号。4小时图出现**price_up_oi_down**的象限——价格上涨的同时，未平仓合约量却在下降。这说明什么？这并不是新多头的主动进攻，而是空头在高位被强制平仓后的被动反弹，反弹的持续性存疑。
回到1小时级别，微观结构给出了另一种解读。最近摆动标签变为“LL、HH、HL、LH、LL、HH”，并且刚刚出现了方向为**bullish**的CHoCH（格局变化）信号，价格站上了**73.63**。短期多空格局发生了微妙的反转。但你要问这里的资金愿意大力做多吗？答案并不乐观——1小时最新Delta为**-10384.81**，且在高点处出现了明显的CVD背离（价格创新高，CVD却大幅回落253396余）。这说明，尽管价格在涨，但主动买盘的力量正在暗中撤退。
一个值得深思的细节是资金费率。当前1h资金费率为**0.0001**，处于**0.93**的高分位。这意味着什么？市场上看多杠杆的持仓者需要支付高昂的持仓成本，他们正在为“信仰”付费。可一旦价格未能快速上扬，这些拥挤的多头头寸随时可能变成踩踏的燃料。目前1h强平线索为空，这既是暴风雨前的宁静，也可能是多方暂时稳定的缓冲。
把大小周期拼接起来，你会看到一个清晰的博弈画面：大周期结构偏空，小周期出现微弱转多迹象，但资金却呈现出“反向运行”的撤退态势。这种行情最忌拍脑袋追单。
对于SOL，我的交易计划倾向于**区间高抛低吸，破位止损跟随**。当前价格处于**73.00-75.00**的短期阻力区域。
**情景一（弱势回落）**：若价格反弹至**74.80-75.20**区间且1小时出现看跌吞没，可轻仓试空，止损设在**76.00**上方。第一止盈目标看**73.30**，第二止盈看**71.00**附近。仓位控制在总资金的10%以内。这同时是4小时BOS后的反弹确认位。
**情景二（强势突破）**：若1小时K线以放量阳线有效站上**76.00**（4小时缺口位），则放弃空头思路，等待回踩**74.80-75.20**附近接多，止损**74.00**，目标依次看向**78.50**与**80.00**，仓位10%-15%。但考虑到1h CVD顶背离尚未修复，追高风险极大，宁可错过。
**情景三（观望等待）**：价格若在**73.50-74.00**之间窄幅震荡且无成交量配合，即属于“无效区”波动。当前市场极度中性，观望为主，持有现金等待明确方向。
为什么我坚持严苛的交易边界？因为当前宏观的风向标不在K线上，而在新闻推送里。下周美国可能对伊朗能源设施实施具体打击的消息，会让原油大幅波动，进而传导至风险资产。SOL作为高Beta品种，在真金白银的大新闻面前，任何技术支撑都是脆弱的。此时资金更倾向于流向安全性资产，而非重仓山寨。
不过，世事无绝对。反过来说，若地缘冲突趋于缓和，被压抑的做多情绪将瞬间释放，SOL的弹性也值得期待。这就意味着，你必须时刻把止损带在身边，切忌扛单。
聪明的读者，当你看到这篇文章时，你是更倾向于在地缘阴霾下等待SOL的深跌抄底，还是认为当前的利空已经出尽？把你的判断留在评论区，我们一起追踪验证。
最后，请允许我再次提醒：当前1小时级别CVD顶背离叠加高资金费率，短期回调风险尚未解除。务必等待明确的K线确认，切勿在当前价格盲目追多或追空。如果是空仓状态，不妨给自己一点耐心。
——仅为个人看法，不构成投资建议，祝交易顺利。#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施，使馆发撤离预警
#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施，使馆发撤离预警 $SOL $OP $DRAM $HEI $SPCX $LTC $INTC 特朗普“喊停”是真，但条件是“迅速敲定协议”，前提并不稳固。
关键是伊朗军方立刻回怼，称特朗普关于“伊朗请求暂缓”的说法是“一个新的谎言”，军队仍处于最高戒备状态。
这就成了双方各说各话的“对台戏”，根本不像已经达成共识的样子。
而且这不是第一次“打打停停”了。
6月美伊签过备忘录，7月冲突就又升级了。
这次暂停背后，甚至有美媒爆料是因为美国防空弹药库存告急，以及沙特、卡塔尔紧急斡旋施压。更像是外力逼停，而非双方讲和。#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施，使馆发撤离预警 $CL # ETH: The "squeeze rally" before the storm, or a downward relay?
News that the U.S. is preparing to strike Iran's energy facilities is like a stone being thrown into the already restless crypto market. Crude oil surged, gold surged, and risk assets were the first to shrink their necks. In this atmosphere, volatility in TAO, XMR, and WIF intensified, KORU and ESPORTS funds were active, while the true "market stabilizer" ETH unusually entered a dual volatility contraction state of 4-hour and 1-hour periods. What does volatility contraction mean? It means the main direction is brewing, and often a large candlestick breaks the silence.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, ETH's story is far from easy. The recent swing sequence is HL, HH, HL, LH, LL, LH — the highs no longer hit new highs, but the lows have hit new lows, a typical example of a weak upward momentum. Structurally, after $1820.61 was breached, a bearish CHoCH (structural reversal) appeared at the 4-hour level, officially declaring that bears have taken over the 4-hour narrative. Although there are eight effective zones below providing layered support, the OI quadrant shows "price_up_oi_up"—open interest increases in sync with price increases, indicating that new funds are indeed entering at low levels to gamble the bulls. This creates a contradiction: the structure is bearish, but big capital is taking over. My understanding is that this doesn't look like a reversal, but more like a dip after a high-level distribution.
On the 1-hour chart, bulls are trying to tell a new story. In the swing sequence, LL, LH, HL, LH, LL, HH appeared. The most recent HH confirmed a 1-hour bullish CHoCH, positioned at $1885. In other words, the hourly chart broke through 1885, signaling a bullish short-term structure. But don't celebrate too soon—the latest Delta is -2252.26, and buyers are not actively placing orders; CVD data is a warning: when the rebound reached a new high, CVD actually fell to 62893.7, indicating a bearish divergence that has not yet been fully confirmed. In contrast, at the decline low, when the price hit a new low, CVD dropped sharply to 148,214.79, showing no divergence, indicating that bears were selling real money at the low level. The funding rate is 0.0001, at the 73rd percentile, indicating that the bulls are not heavy but not overheated. The strong liquidation clues are empty; the extreme moment for "inserted pin liquidation" has not yet arrived.
Therefore, the overall judgment is: ETH is currently in an awkward position of "4-hour bearish bias, 1-hour oversold rebound but then divergence." I believe the short-term trend is bearish with a consolidating bias, with the core range between $1800 and $1885. 1885 is the 1-hour bull-bear dividing line, while 1820.61 is the 4-hour structural transition point.
Here's a scenario-based trading plan:
**Scenario 1: Want to short near 1885**
If the price rebounds to the 1880-1885 area and shows bearish engulfing or effectively breaks below 1880 on the 15-minute or 1-hour chart, you can take a light short position, set a stop loss above 1905, with the first target at 1830 and the second target at 1800, and the position not exceeding 5% of the total capital. If the price directly falls below 1800, the 4-hour downtrend will accelerate, allowing you to chase shorts with stop-losses above 1820, targeting around 1750.
**Scenario 2: Want to go long near 1800**
If the price stabilizes within the 1800-1820 range and forms a 1-hour bullish CHoCH or a downward shadow with increased volume, small positions can be used, with stop-losses below 1785, first target 1860, second target 1885, position size also controlled below 5%. If the price unexpectedly surges above 1900 and recovers the 4-hour bearish CHoCH, the bearish logic will fail and a reassessment will need to be reassessed as a shift from consolidation to bullish.
This week, ETH news was actually quite quiet: spot ETF funds experienced a "withdraw first, then advance" episode, with institutions sharply diverging in the 1800-1900 range; Discussions about staking rates and network upgrades have heated up again, with some long-term holders quietly increasing their holdings at low levels. However, geopolitics hang over like a sword hanging overhead—news that the U.S. is preparing to strike Iran's energy facilities has caused sharp fluctuations in oil prices. Once risk aversion strengthens, it is often ETH, a high-beta asset, that suffers first. Are you willing to hold onto the flying knives before the air raid sirens sound? Or waiting for certainty after the boot hits the ground? Feel free to share your positions and thoughts in the comments section.
The market is like the current situation in the Middle East: calm on the surface but with underlying currents. The volatility of the 4-hour contraction will ultimately be released by a large candlestick. I tend not to chase long positions below 1885, and not short above 1800, waiting for a trend after the boundary is broken. Are you planning to bet on a breakout at 1885, or wait to buy on dips at 1800?
—— These are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading. ——
#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施, the embassy issued an evacuation warning $ETH $TAO $XMR $ESPORTS $KORU $TRX $WIF
#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施, the embassy issued an evacuation warningETH's hourly hype clearly slowed, with bullish bias clearly dominating: how to interpret 9 samples
During this hour of ETH discussion, there were two main points: tone bias and the speed at which new discussions were added.
In the official snapshot of August 2nd (China time), OKX Onchain OS recorded 9 mentions of ETH in one hour, including 9 mentions of X and 0 news articles; A total of 402 times in twenty-four hours.
The latest hourly rate is 0.54 times the 24-hour average, meaning it is about 46% lower than the 24-hour average, which is considered a "clear slowdown." This describes attention rhythm but cannot replace price, transaction, or flow data.
In terms of tone, 67% are slightly bullish within one hour, 22% bearish, and about 11% neutral, so currently, the 'bullish side clearly dominates.' The 24-hour correspondence ratio is 36% slightly bullish and 24% bearish; Whether the short window is deviating from the long window is more meaningful than looking at just one percentage.
What I care about most here is actually the denominator: only 9 times. If there are a few more focused discussions, the proportions may be clearly rewritten; Retweets, quotes, and news retellings may all be talking about the same thing. You can write the position as long or bearish as is, but it shouldn't be casually translated as how much capital has established positions in the same direction.
Currently, ETH's source structure is "almost entirely driven by X." If X mentions the increase first and the news is still scarce, it feels more like the community spreading first; If news increases simultaneously, it only means more verifiable materials will be available, and you still need to return to the original announcements from foundations, agreements, regulators, or trading platforms to confirm details.
The 24-hour source background is 344 times and 58 news times. Comparing it with 9.0 times per hour shows whether the new round of discussion has shifted its distribution channels. Channel changes themselves are neither positive nor negative, but they do affect the speed and verifiability of information.
For ETH, community signals are best cross-checked with two independent data lines. Network usage allows users to view transaction fees, active addresses, L2 settlements, and staking changes; Market structure depends on spot trading, futures basis, funding rates, and options skew. Any of these are closer to real needs than a single emotional proportion.
The 24-hour average also smooths out spikes caused by announcements and market sessions. If the latest hour is below the average, it may just be a quieter period; If it is above the average, it may simply be a single event with concentrated fermentation. Two to three consecutive snapshots still in the same direction look more like a continuation rather than instantaneous noise.
This set of proportions can easily be rewritten in the next snapshot. Once the sample size is scaled up, if the overly long and empty parts quickly return to close together, it means that a small amount of text was pulling the ball just now; If the tone gap is maintained and the speed continues to rise, and there is on-chain usage or transaction data to support this, then confidence will have reason to go upward.
This round of ETH doesn't need to be forced into a conclusion. Discussion clearly slows down, tone is clearly dominant, and almost all sources are driven by X. Just remember these three points first. It has yet to prove a breakout, net capital inflow, or change in on-chain demand; Whether the next round of samples can still be established after expanding is the real issue.### BTC Remains Silent, Are Bulls and Bears Waiting for That "Missile"?
Today, the altcoin world erupted—1000 RATS surged 43.5% in a single day, while DOGE, ORDI, and BCH all saw increased volume, as if the bull market had already arrived early. But BTC, which prides itself on "digital gold," is like a frustrated hunter, lying motionless in the grass. Volatility contracted simultaneously in the 4-hour and 1-hour range, with prices repeatedly testing within the tens of dollars range—a calm unique to before the storm. And on this seemingly calm afternoon, an international piece of news began to sting at the market: **The US is preparing to strike Iran's energy facilities, embassy issues evacuation warnings**. Oil prices instantly became restless, and risk-averse sentiment surged beneath the surface. Will BTC rise along with gold, or will it be dragged down by risk aversion? Today, let's talk about it.
Zooming in to the 4-hour chart, the recent swing points resemble a jazz track without a main theme: HL, HH, LL, LH, LL, LH—the highs and lows interspersed, creating an extremely twisted structure. What really pleased the bears was the most recent BOS at $62,228.8, with a downward direction. This breakdown theoretically opened up mid-term downside potential. But the price did not accelerate its decline; instead, it traced a "fake drop" recovery below 62,228. More importantly, the 1-hour OI quadrant shows **price_up_oi_up**—while prices rise, open interest is also increasing. This means the rebound is not a false boom created by short closing but rather that new long funds are actively entering the market. On one side, the 4-hour structure is biased in bears; on the other, funds are secretly accumulating. This sense of disruption is precisely the incubation period for a major market reversal. There are only three valid zones on the 4-hour chart, indicating that bulls and bears have yet to truly determine a winner.
Cutting to the 1-hour level, the microstructure is much more complex—there are as many as 8 effective zones, and the price has already pulled back and forth several rounds at this level. The recent swing labels remain chaotic: LL, HH, LL, LH, LL, HH, until a bullish CHoCH appeared, breaking through $63,620 and the short-term balance began to tip to the bulls. However, the details are not perfect. The latest 1-hour Delta is -146.1, with active selling still dominating. Even more intriguing is CVD: at the rebound high, the price surged to 344.3 points, but CVD bucked the trend and fell to 2017.77—a typical example of weakening upward momentum, and this high has yet to be confirmed; At the low point, the price dropped 181.7 points, and CVD dropped sharply by 3237.88, indicating that selling pressure was truly released during the decline, and this low has been confirmed. Considering the funding rate of 0.0000 (quintile 0.27) and the strong liquidation trail being short, the market has neither strong bullish sentiment nor excessive leverage accumulation in the short term; it seems more like waiting for an external event to break the balance.
So, what should we do next? My core view is: **bullish in the short term, bearish in the medium term**. This is not a one-sided rally, but a structural correction. The specific scenario is as follows:
**Scenario A (Main Strategy):** If the price pulls back near $63,620 and stabilization signals appear at the 15-minute/1-hour level (such as a bullish candle with increased volume), you can take a light long position. Entry: 63,600-63,700; Stop loss: 63,000; First take-profit: 64,800; Second take-profit: 66,000. Position size should not exceed 20% of total capital. The reason is simple: this is a rebound against the 4-hour BOS, so you should not be heavily invested.
**Scenario B (Breakout Strategy):** If the price holds above $64,800 with increased volume, the bull-bear pattern will undergo a qualitative change. You can buy long positions between 64,800 and 64,900, stop loss at 63,950, and target 66,000/67,500. Position size reduced to 10%.
**Scenario C (Defensive Strategy):** If the price falls below $62,228.8 (4-hour BOS), it means the rebound has completely failed and medium-term bears have returned. Long positions must be unconditionally exited, and you can reverse to short near 62,200, with a stop loss of 63,000 and targets of 61,000/60,000. Do not go against BOS.
Additionally, if the price repeatedly fluctuates between 63,620 and 62,228 without a clear direction, reduce the frequency of trading and wait for a breakout—sometimes not trading is the best trade.
Over the past week, BTC's market sentiment has been like a malfunctioning roller coaster. On Monday, the US unexpectedly released manufacturing PMI dropped, raising expectations for rate cuts and allowing BTC to rebound; But then hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials gave back gains. Today, news of the US preparing to strike Iran's energy facilities has made all risk assets frown. If oil prices surge, inflation expectations will resurface, and the logic of rate cuts will be shaken, which is negative for BTC; On the other hand, escalating Middle East conflicts will trigger BTC's "digital gold" attributes, hedge against currency depreciation. The interplay of these two forces also explains why BTC is hesitating within a narrow range. In terms of ETF funds, last week saw several consecutive days of net inflows, with long-term funds quietly accumulating. Short-term geopolitical events are likely to become triggers for directional choices.
What do you think of this wave of silence from your screen? Do you think BTC will first break through 64,800 with increased volume, or will it first fall below 62,228 for a second bottom? Feel free to share your point in the comments, and let's witness it together. Don't forget to keep following the Middle East situation—it's where everyone's heart races.
—— Personal opinion only, does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you a smooth transaction ——
#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施, the embassy issued an evacuation warning $BTC $ETC $DOGE $1,000 RATS $ORDI $BCH $SAMSUNG
#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施, the embassy issued an evacuation warning$SOL has now posted its 10th consecutive monthly red candle—a rare stretch for a large-cap asset like Solana.
For many investors who have been averaging in over the past 10 months, positions remain underwater, highlighting that successful DCA depends not only on consistency but also on selecting strong projects and understanding market conditions.
The contrast with the previous cycle is striking. When $SOL traded near the $10 region after the FTX collapse, sentiment was overwhelmingly negative and many believed the project was finished. Yet that period ultimately became one of its strongest recovery phases.
Markets often move against the majority. Assets that appear abandoned can later outperform, while those attracting widespread optimism may struggle. No pattern guarantees the future, but sentiment and timing can have a significant impact on investment outcomes.
#30YYieldAt19YHigh
#SpaceXUnlockLooms 兄弟们，PEOPLE今日涨8.78%，现价0.007092美元。今天这根阳线的质量，需要多看一眼。 拉长时间看，PEOPLE这轮上涨的逻辑和7月底一样：SHIB 暴涨带动的MEME板块情绪外溢。PEOPLE作为全流通的老牌MEME币，在板块轮动中被资金选中。当时的特征很典型——成交额冲到2600万美元，但价格从0.0059涨到0.0068，振幅不到17%，典型的放量滞涨。 今天这根阳线的矛盾在于：涨了，但追涨力量明显跟不上了。 日线级别的KDJ指标已经交叉向下，存在高位死叉的风险。0.0072是近期反复测试的前高，过去几天价格在这个位置附近受阻，一直没有形成有效突破。过不去，就是双顶。 PEOPLE本质上是纯社区叙事型资产——ConstitutionDAO拍卖失败后DAO已解散，没有路线图、没有收入、没有持续的开发团队。上涨靠的是MEME情绪外溢，下跌也是情绪。这种资产特性决定了它的上涨往往是一波流，要么突破，要么回踩。 关键价位：上方阻力$0.0072（放量突破才能继续上攻），$0.0073（日线强阻）；下方支撑$0.0062-$0.0065（多头防守区），$0.0058（跌破则趋势$ETH Exchange reserves plummeted and staking hits hit new highs – tightening on the supply side
🏦 The total reserves of centralized exchange $ETH have dropped to about 15.1 million tokens, nearly 30% less than the 2025 peak of 21 million tokens. Binance's reserves dropped from 5 million to 3.8 million, and Coinbase showed a similar trend. If net flow remains negative, it indicates that funds are continuously being withdrawn into cold wallets or staking contracts.
🔒 Staking Participation Rate: Currently, ETH staking accounts for 33.7% of the total supply, setting a new all-time high. About 40.5 million ETH are locked in the Beacon Chain, and this portion of liquidity has been completely drained from the market. Including the locked assets in Layer 2, the actual freely tradable ETH may be less than 40%.
📉 Reduced supply is theoretically bullish for price, but why is ETH still falling? Because demand is also weak – on-chain DeFi total value locked (TVL) is down 45% from the 2025 peak, NFT trading volume shrinks by 70%, and gas fees remain below 5 GW for a long time, indicating low network activity.
📊 But the marginal change is noteworthy: last week, net ETH deposits in DeFi protocols turned positive, marking the first time in six weeks. If this trend continues, combined with tightening supply, it could trigger a round of short squeezes. On-chain data shows that if ETH breaks through $1,910, $230 million worth of short positions will face liquidation.
🔮 Conclusion: The supply side of $ETH already has the budding shape of a bull market; it is only waiting for the demand side (DApps, staking yields, ETF inflows) to recover. Pay close attention to the number of active L2 addresses and stablecoin mint volume, both of which are leading indicators of demand recovery. #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion unlock is about to be lifted. #财报观察员: Next Thursday's lottery draw will be held, with Circle as the grand finale $SPCX
The future of space computing power should ultimately be evaluated only after the project is running
However, the issues with ground computing power centers can be summarized
Take the current computing power centers in the United States, whose main problems focus on grid capacity, land for construction, and community conflicts. These issues also share a common feature: they lack the benefits of "economies of scale." In fact, the more computing centers are built, the more severe these problems become. In other words, grid capacity becomes tighter, land for construction becomes scarcer, and community conflicts become more intense
As for the space computing power center, issues like grid capacity, land for construction, and community conflicts naturally do not exist. Basically, they only need to focus on overcoming technical issues. As for technical issues, SpaceX plans to begin launching verification satellites next year, at least by then we can make a preliminary judgmentThe recent incidents with Gate and BitMart should serve as a wake-up call for everyone who still has funds in smaller exchanges. In the next year or two, we will likely see the vast majority of small and medium-sized exchanges shut down because the business model based on altcoins that these small exchanges relied on has ended. When they close, your money will most likely no longer be yours. Don't be lazy, don't be hopeful for luck, and don't be tempted by a little extra yield from financial products—that's all bait designed to trap you. **CL：山寨季里的逆行者，还是暴风雨前的蓄力？**
8月2日下午，市场被山寨季的燥热包裹——$KORU、$BLESS、$WLD都在放量拉升，资金活跃度肉眼可见地升温。可 CL 却像一个不合群的旁观者：4小时波动率在扩张，1小时波动率也在扩张，价格在80美元附近反复拉锯，没有方向感，却又暗藏杀机。这个位置，多空都在等一个态度。
而此刻，平台热门话题 #HYPE再遭亿元解押，日企首度入场 正在发酵。解押意味着潜在抛压，向来是悬在市场上的达摩克利斯之剑；日企入场则是传统资金增配加密的长期利好。这两股力量对冲，导致市场情绪在“贪婪”和“恐惧”之间快速切换。CL 没有独立消息刺激，自然就成了资金轮动中被暂时遗忘的角落——但遗忘往往意味着蓄力，也意味着风险。
**大周期：80.45失守，大资金在撤退**
先看4小时图。最近的摆动序列是 HH、LL、LH、HL、HH、LL——高点不再创新高，低点却持续下移，这是一种典型的震荡偏空结构。最新结构事件 CHoCH 在80.45确认，方向向下，价格自此跌破关键防线。加上4小时级别已经累计形成9个有效区域，说明多空在这个区间经历了反复的筹码交换，而最终空头拿下了主导权。
真正让我警惕的是 OI 象限：price_down_oi_down——价格在跌，未平仓合约却在减少。这不是新空头进场打压，而是多头主动平仓离场。大资金的态度很直白：不在这个位置接飞刀，也不愿意逆势扛单。用一句话概括，就是“撤退中的有序出逃”。这种行情最怕的不是暴跌，而是阴跌之后的突然加速。
**小周期：空头仍在发力，但杠杆已过度拥挤**
1小时图的微观结构给出了更多细节。摆动标签同样偏空：HH、LL、HH、HL、LH、LL，最新 CHoCH 在80.00向下确认，有效区域5个。1小时 Delta 报 -18176，主动卖盘明显压制买盘。更微妙的是 CVD 的变化：在最近一个高点摆动被确认时，CVD 变化为 -45249；而低点摆动尚未确认，CVD 变化已经达到 -87964。这说明价格在低位区域时，抛售力度其实比之前更猛，但价格并没有出现想象中的崩塌——下方有人在接，只是接得小心翼翼。
资金费率 -0.0041，分位数 0.0000，这是一个极端值。全市场几乎没有杠杆多头，空头拥挤到极致。这种氛围下，行情往往容易走出“空头回补”的反弹，但反弹的持续性存疑。强平线索目前是空的，没有恐慌性踩踏，更像是缩量阴跌的磨人局。
**交易计划：反弹做空为主，抢反弹只做快枪手**
综合大小周期，我的判断是：中期结构偏空，短期存在超跌反弹需求，但反弹是给空头更好进场位，而非趋势反转信号。基于80.45/80.00两个关键 CHoCH，给出以下情景预案：
情景一：反弹做空（首选）。若价格反弹至80.50-80.80区域（前结构确认位下方），且15分钟级别出现滞涨或反转K线，可轻仓做空。入场价80.50-80.80，止损81.20上方，目标79.50、78.80。仓位控制在总资金2%以内。这个位置做空，胜率在于“结构压制+资金费率修复”。
情景二：跌破追空（次选）。若价格直接跌破79.00并回踩确认，则空头延续，可以小仓位跟随。入场价79.00-79.10，止损79.40，目标78.20、77.50。注意追空风险较高，必须等待回踩，而不是盲目向下砸单。
情景三：超跌抢反弹（辅助）。若价格在78.50-78.80出现放量止跌、CVD由负转正，可以逆势抢一次反弹，但只做短线。入场价78.60附近，止损78.20，目标80.00-80.30。仓位不超过1%，严格止损，绝不让逆势单变成扛单。
如果价格在79.00-80.50之间继续横盘震荡，且 Delta 和 CVD 没有明显方向，那就观望。记住，不是每一段行情都必须参与。
**新闻与宏观：解押压力与长期配置的拉锯**
回到开头那个话题。HYPE 的亿元级解押，在牛市背景下往往被解读为“筹码重新分配”，但在当前资金费率极度负值、OI持续下滑的环境里，它更容易放大空头情绪。而日企首度入场又是另一条暗线：传统企业资金开始试探性配置加密资产，这为未来行情的增量资金提供了想象空间。CL 作为项目中相对低调的一个，如果能在这次“解押抛压”与“新增配置”的拉锯中站稳，反而可能成为下一轮板块轮动的接力者。但眼下，风控永远比故事更性感。
市场不会一直狂欢，也不会一直沉默。CL 在80美元关口的每一次拉扯，都是多空双方真金白银的投票。你认为，这个位置是筑底前的最后一跌，还是下跌中继的新起点？欢迎在评论区聊聊你的判断。
#HYPE再遭亿元解押，日企首度入场
#HYPE再遭亿元解押，日企首度入场 $CL $KORU $BLESS $WLD $APT $COTI $CRCL
——仅为个人看法，不构成投资建议，祝交易顺利。——BTC has started a new monthly cycle, and the market is currently filled with strong bearish sentiment. At the beginning of the month, it is actually easier to see a rebound.
Based on historical trend observations, BTC has entered a new cycle under pessimism, often experiencing reversal trends. This pattern only fails when the trend reaches a fundamental turning point; similar situations occurred in November last year, February this year, and June this year.
In his view, Bitcoin is currently fluctuating within a range, with prices near bear market lows, and there are two paths ahead:
First, the price tested below $57,000;
The second scenario is the start of a rebound this month, with the market continuously moving within a range.
Even if the overall trend remains bearish, given the current market structure, a 2%-4% rally at the start of the month would be a more reasonable move.
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
#SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion ban is about to be lifted
#财报观察员: Next Thursday's draw will be held, with Circle as the grand finale As of the release date, Strategy's investor relations page had not yet shown the Q2 2026 financial report, so the "Q2 book loss of 8.2 billion" and the "termination of dip buying" cannot be confirmed as first-hand facts.
I'm confused. Just seeing "book loss" means the company is selling BTC at a huge loss, which is also inaccurate. Even if the official disclosed loss is later disclosed, fair value fluctuations, actual sales, and cash flow must be distinguished, followed by the number of tokens held and financing costs. The headline is very provocative; the original financial report is the real focus. This is for knowledge sharing only and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $MSTR Fundamental Research Report $BLAST / Blast (L2/Sidechain) $3.20
To put it plainly: Blast ($BLAST) has an overall score of 53/100, with a rating that narrative is more important than reality. Looking at the three layers, the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network already shows signs of paid usage, and token value transfer still needs to be observed.
Fundamental breakdown: Blast (token $BLAST), L2/sidechain track. Focusing on native Pacman L2 yields. Benchmarked against ARB and OP. Traditional collaboration between enterprises relies on cloud servers and contract reconciliation, which causes gas surges, TPS constraints, and frequent cross-chain bridge security incidents during high concurrency. Public chains use a unified state machine for trustless settlement, reducing reconciliation costs. Average order value is $50-500/month, with settlement required in USDC or fiat currency. Narrative-driven tracks, bear market usage cut by 60-80%. Positioning the end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: The protocol layer is officially operational, and the on-chain dashboard shows protocol fees accumulating, showing signs of paid usage. Latest version not found, 60 valid submissions in the past 90 days.
At the user level, address MAU not disclosed, DAU not disclosed, 24-hour transaction volume $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users of natural persons; large large addresses holding concentrated positions tend to overestimate the actual number of users. On the revenue side, user fees are not disclosed. Supply-side revenue is about 80-90% of user fees (to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury revenue is $5.5K, token holders buy back and burn annualized rates, with no burn mechanism. 24-hour transaction volume is business turnover, not revenue. A company making money does not mean the protocol makes money, and protocol profits do not equal token holders making money. On the code side, 60 valid submissions in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is a Class A evidence that can be directly verified. Investment background: For company equity financing, look to PitchBook/Crunchbase (A-level); for token private and public funding, use whitepapers, release curves, and on-chain unlocked contracts (A-level); market makers and ecosystem funding are B-level and do not represent long-term holdings of tech VCs; for technical integration, look to API/SDK access evidence (B-level); strategic partnerships and logo walls are D-level. The use of NVIDIA GPUs does not equate to NVIDIA investment, and going public on exchanges does not equal strategic investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock is 2026-Q4 (+3.50% circulating), burn buyback annualized rate, no explicit buyback burn. Do you have to buy coins to use the product? Yes, strong value capture (Gas/Collateral/Service Access). Comparing with peers (unified criteria, no cross-sector random comparisons): In terms of circulating market capitalization, Blast $3.00B, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. For FDV, Blast $4.20B, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. In terms of annualized revenue, Blast $5.5K, ARB undisclosed, OP undisclosed. Regarding monthly active addresses or users, Blast has not disclosed, ARB has not disclosed, OP has not disclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; any omissions are supplemented by official self-reports or industry standards. Valuation, market capitalization $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 547,945.2x, FDV divided by revenue 767,123.3x. Pessimistic outlook: $3.00B at 50-70% off, oscillating within a neutral range; optimistic outlook: revenue doubling, burns landing, enterprise clients coming in, FDV corresponding to P/S, aligning with the top companies. Final judgment: Solid fundamentals (score 53/100). The token value transmission path is unclear, with only governance incentives. Circulating market cap is relatively high relative to fundamentals, overdrawing expectations, and FDV is moderate. Potential pitfalls: short-term large-scale unlock and sell-off, long-term protocol revenue reverting to zero, token demand relying solely on incentives (once incentives are cut off, usage collapses). Ongoing monitoring: protocol fee cycles, burn amounts, active address retention, TVL/loan balances, GitHub version releases. Data is sourced from public sources and is for reference only, not constituting investment advice. If the indicator deviation exceeds 30%, a reassessment is required.
That's all for now. See you next time.
#基本面研报 #加密 #研究 #OKXOrbitThe biggest risk in the market right now is the cash flow problem of Nvidia, the world's largest market cap company. Several AI giants have completely exhausted their cash flow. Nvidia's cash flow in the last quarter was only over $50 billion.
For a company with a market cap of 5 trillion, if the poor cash flow in the last quarter can be attributed to accelerated expansion, then the financial report on August 26 will be crucial. An increase in cash flow would push the market to new highs, but otherwise, it would signal an economic crisis. It's like a ghost story—such huge orders, yet...#美方委托高盛与摩根士丹利干预日元
The most exciting part of this incident isn't the intervention itself, but the notebook that was "accidentally" photographed.
On August 1, Reuters captured a photo at a Camp David cabinet meeting, showing a notebook in front of Finance Minister Bescent, with the to-do section clearly stating, "Buy 5 to 10 billion dollars in yen."
A few hours later, the New York Fed, representing the Treasury, sold euros and bought yen through Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Subsequently, the New York Fed also inquired about exchange rates with several banks, confirming that a joint intervention signal had been issued.
The last time the U.S. did this was after the 2011 earthquake in Japan, when the G7 jointly intervened. This time, it's not for disaster relief, but to "support the yen." Just one day before the U.S. made its move, Japan itself had already invested about $58.9 billion to enter the market. Although Japan's Finance Minister declined to confirm the intervention, he admitted that the exchange rate is being closely monitored.
After the news broke, the USD/JPY quickly fell from around 158.9 to around 157.6. The yen pulled back from a 40-year low in two days, showing a "straight-line rally."
The U.S. is not moving in out of sympathy for Japan, but because the yen has fallen further. To stabilize its exchange rate, Japan has had to keep selling U.S. Treasuries to exchange for dollars, and U.S. Treasury yields are already at a 19-year high. To protect the U.S. Treasury market, the U.S. had no choice but to personally buy the yen. Interfering with exchange rates has never been about "helping others," but about "not dragging yourself down."
For the crypto market, a weaker US dollar is usually positive for BTC. But the intervention itself also shows that global liquidity is becoming increasingly strained—the U.S. is shrinking its balance sheet while also intervening in exchange rates. This contradictory policy mix may have a more questionable long-term impact on risk assets than short-term exchange rate fluctuations.🟡 中性偏多 | 2026.08.02 15:42
📰 核心要闻：
• 特朗普突然取消对伊朗轰炸计划，沙特王储紧急斡旋成功，Brent原油从$100回落至$83，WTI跌至$81——地缘风险溢价急剧收缩
• Fed三名理事投票加息，Coinbase股价暴跌10%，Clarity Act立法前景存疑，市场风险偏好受压
• Coldcard冷钱包漏洞扩大至4,585个地址，损失达$8,900万； Chain离职员工ASTEROID内幕拉盘1,557%后砸盘
📊 市场信号：
• BTC $63,400 (+0.5%)，24h交易量骤降71.7%，多空博弈陷入观望
• ETH $1,875 (+0.3%)，Spot BTC ETF昨日净流入$2.33亿，Banco Santander首次披露持BTC+ETH ETF
• 存储芯片超级周期：DRAM供需缺口4.9%（15年最严重），MU全年HBM产能已全部售罄，Q2营收同比+196%
💡 观点：
地缘降温+油价回落本应利好风险资产，但Fed鹰派信号和交易量萎缩形成对冲。短期BTC大概率维持$62K-$64K区间震荡，关注周一非农数据能否打破僵局。存储芯片赛道的结构性牛市仍在加速，MU/SNDK逻辑没变。
#BTC #ETH #行情分析If you're still holding on, give me a like to see how many there are
Honestly, I laughed the moment I opened my position—profit +0.21 USDT, open interest 14.91 USDT, 5x cross-margin long position. If this data is published, the big players will probably laugh, and the newbies will want to cry. But this is my true state: no liquidation, no giving up, still at the table.
---
What happened on the market?
Let's look at the data first. LABUSDT is currently fluctuating around 0.1381, with the upper Bollinger Bands (BOLL20) at 0.1480 and the lower band at 0.1280, trapped in the middle zone. The 24-hour high reached 0.1740 and the lowest was 0.1406, showing considerable volatility, but for a "monster coin" like LAB, it can only be considered routine trading.
What really stirred up the market was today's big news—on-chain monitoring showed that a suspected insider address in LAB became active again after three weeks, depositing 5.8 million LAB (about $834,000) to KuCoin nine hours ago, with an average deposit price of $0.1439. And what happened? Within an hour and a half, the price kept falling, hitting a low of $0.1273, a drop of 11.5%. This address still holds 74.7 million LAB untouched tokens, worth about $10.11 million.
And that's not all—on July 12, the same address transferred $9.15 million worth of LAB to an exchange, after which the token price plummeted by 42.5%. History always repeats itself, but each script is more thrilling.
Technically, the price quickly surged to 0.1740 before being strongly rejected and is currently consolidating near the EMA30 (around 0.1490). MACD bullish momentum is fading, and KDJ has entered the oversold zone. Key support is at 0.1450 and 0.1405, with resistance at 0.1525 and 0.1600.
---
My trading direction
Long position, cross-margin, 5x leverage, average opening price 0.136, mark price 0.1381. Currently, the floating profit is +0.21 USDT (+7.35%), with a margin of 2.98 USDT, and the maintenance margin ratio reaching as high as 1062.39%—this number may sound intimidating, but it's actually because the position size is too small.
Take profit at 0.1743, stop loss at 0.1268. Why set it this way? 0.1743 is the recent rebound high; a rise is a bargain; 0.1268 is near today's sharp drop; a break would mean the bullish structure is completely doomed.
The strategy is simple: hold on, wait for the wind.
LAB's fundamentals aren't bad—it's a multi-chain trading aggregator supporting Solana, Ethereum, BNB Chain, spot trading, limit price, and perpetual contracts, plus an AI research engine. But in this market, fundamentals are the story; emotions are the real money.
---
A few thoughts
To be honest, I felt guilty every time I opened this order. Today, when news broke about the insider address crashing the market, the group was filled with wails. Some shouted, "LAB is going to zero," while others said, "The market makers are here to harvest." But I still chose to hold onto it.
Why? Not because my faith is strong, but because my stop-loss hasn't come yet.
Ultimately, trading is about making plans, executing plans, and leaving the rest to the market. I went long at 0.136, stopped loss at 0.1268, with a profit-loss ratio of about 1:1—wrong and 10% loss, right profit 27%. I think these odds are acceptable.
LAB is a coin that some in the community call it "the most bizarre coin of the year, bar none." Demons have their own way of playing—don't date it, set your stop-loss settings, and leave when it's time to leave.
Finally, a few words: the 0.15 integer threshold is a battleground for bulls and bears. I don't know if my long-term bet will survive until then. But what I do know is—
As long as the position remains, the story is not yet finished.
---
$BTC
$LAB
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
#SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion ban is about to be lifted
#财报观察员: Next Thursday's draw will be held, with Circle as the grand finale 真正危险的不是美国会不会再打伊朗。
而是下一轮目标，可能从军事设施转向能源设施。
此前有消息称，美以正在准备扩大对伊朗的打击范围，电力、能源相关设施进入潜在目标名单。与此同时，美国驻中东多地使馆开始提醒美国公民考虑离开，或者做好局势突然升级时迅速撤离的准备。
不过最新变化是，特朗普又暂缓了新的军事行动，希望先看看外交协议能不能谈下来。
所以现在不是“战争已经升级”。
而是市场重新给一个更危险的场景定价：
能源战。
如果伊朗能源设施遭到攻击，伊朗已经警告可能反击海湾地区能源基础设施。
再叠加霍尔木兹海峡——全球大约20%的石油供应经过这里。
传导链很清楚：
能源设施遇袭
→ 原油供应风险上升
→ 油价继续涨
→ 通胀重新抬头
→ 美联储更难降息
→ BTC、科技股、高Beta资产承压。
所以我的判断很明确：
🛢️ 原油：明显利多
🟡 黄金：明显利多
₿ BTC：短期偏空
山寨币：风险更大
很多人看到战争就条件反射“利好BTC”。
我不这么看。
至少第一阶段，市场通常先卖风险资产、买美元和黄金。
BTC真正可能受益，是第二阶段——当战争、债务和货币信用问题开始同时发酵。
现在最关键的不是伊朗有没有被炸。
而是：
霍尔木兹海峡还能不能维持正常通行。
如果外交谈判失败，能源设施重新成为目标，我认为油价才是整个市场最大的风险变量。
你觉得下一轮真正的黑天鹅，会不会来自油价？
$BTC $ETH #伊朗 #原油 #霍尔木兹海峡
#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施，使馆发撤离预警 $BTC Decoding miner and long-term holder behavior
⛏️ Miner Dynamics: Currently, the total network hash rate is about 620 EH/s, and the break-even line for miners is about $52,000 (electricity fee $0.05/kWh). Although the price is much higher, miners have not sold off on a large scale recently. On-chain data shows that over the past 7 days, miners' net positions changed by only -0.3%, which is normal business selling. Miners' open positions remain near 1.82 million BTC, indicating a wait-and-see or bullish outlook.
🧓 Long-term holders (LTH, holding >155 days): LTH's supply share has climbed to 78%, reaching a record high. Their average holding cost is about $53,600, and they still have about 18% unrealized gains. LTH selling usually occurs at the peak of a bull market, and its current selling volume is very low, indicating the market is far from overheated.
📉 Short-term holders (STH, holding <155 days) are under greater pressure, with an average cost of about $66,000 and a current floating loss of about 4%. Panic selling during STTH has been the main driver of the recent decline. Of the exchange inflows, STHs account for as much as 73%.
📊 The realized cap has stabilized at $420 billion, indicating that overall capital has not withdrawn significantly. The MVRV ratio dropped to 1.45, below the historical average of 1.8, indicating an undervalued range. But the distance to extreme underestimation (1.0) is still far off.
🔮 Overall assessment: Miners and LTH hold firm positions, providing a solid bottom; STHs are losing selling pressure, but a volume rally is needed to shift market sentiment. If $BTC can climb back above $65,000, STH will turn profitable, reducing selling pressure and creating a positive cycle. $BTC #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 #SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion unlock is about to be lifted. #财报观察员: Next Thursday's lottery draw, with Circle as the finale Weekend In-Depth Investment Research !! SanDisk's SNDK counterattack support level has already been predicted in advance!
I'm Cige, and my view is clear: SanDisk has the potential to counterattack near 1088. For short positions at 1324.87, at this level, the focus should be on taking profit, not continuing to chase.
On the first day of August, it earned 3.3k, all thanks to SanDisk!
I plan to go long at the SanDisk SNDK1088 position!!
Basis for judgment
Technically, 1088 is the core support zone for this round of sharp decline. SanDisk has fallen more than 55% from its all-time high of 2354 in six weeks. 998 was the panic low point of this round of correction, followed by a V-shaped rebound of over 37%. 1088 closely follows the trend lifeline of 998, very close, making it the last offensive ground for bears and the most likely spot for bulls to organize a counterattack. In the short term, the first support is between 1180 and 1200, with secondary support at 1120 and 1088 near the lower boundary. This level has dense support, and the probability of a direct breakdown is extremely low.
Fundamentally, the logic of NAND supply shortages has not been broken. Data centers will become the largest NAND market for the first time in 2026, with NAND demand expected to grow 18% annually from 2026 to 2027, while supply will shrink by 5% in 2026, with no significant new capacity before 2028. Goldman Sachs raised its target price from 1200 to 2200, reiterating a buy rating; Citi sets a target price of 2500; Analyst consensus is 14 buy pairs and 3 holds, with an average target price of $2052. SanDisk's Q3 revenue surged 97% quarter-on-quarter to 5.95 billion, with Q4 guidance of 7.75 to 8.25 billion, and gross margin between 79% and 81%. With the August 5 earnings window approaching, short positions taking profit, bottom-fishing, and option hedging tend to reinforce each other.
Short position handling strategy
Short positions at 1324.87 near 1088 are closed out and profits locked in. Exiting when bears are at their strongest is much wiser than waiting for a rebound to trigger stop-losses before exiting. Keep a base position to see if 998 can hold on; if you hold on, exit completely; if not, keep holding.
If the price doesn't reach 1088, stabilize and increase volume in the 1120 to 1150 range, taking partial profits early. If the price directly breaks through 1088 and volume increases, it means bears are exceeding expectations, and the bottom position should continue to hold, aiming for 950 to 900. Move the moving stop down from 1400 to 1250 to ensure you don't take all your profits.
Going long at 1088 isn't about bottom-fishing; it's about waiting for a technical rebound after bear momentum runs dry. This area has dense support, fundamentals have not collapsed, and the earnings window is approaching, providing conditions for a counterattack. Taking profits near 1088 for a short position at 1324.87 is not a loss and exit, but a pocket of profit.
Ci Ge finished speaking. Think carefully. #财报观察员: The next four lottery sessions will be held, with Circle closing #折旧年限延至25年. Microsoft's capital expenditure guidance was lowered by #韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%, marking the largest single-day gain in history, $BTC $ETH $SNDK The patterns of Bitcoin cycle bottoms and current market simulations
Looking back at history, every major cycle in Bitcoin follows the path of "surge—bubble burst—deep bear bottoming—recovery." And the formation of bottoms often doesn't rely on a specific point, but on a thorough clearing of emotions.
Historical Data Review:
· 2018: Price plunged from $19,800 to $3,200, with a maximum drawdown of about 84%.
That bottom was accompanied by mining machine shutdowns, project teams exiting, and media betting "Bitcoin reset," plunging the market into utter despair.
· 2022: Price fell from $69,000 to $15,500, a drawdown of about 78%.
At that time, a series of black swan events such as the collapse of Luna, the bankruptcy of Three Arrows Capital, and the collapse of FTX weighed heavily on the panic before the bottom quietly formed.
· 2026 (current cycle): The price will pull back from the $126,000 high. If the decay pattern of the previous two rounds (the drawdown narrows gradually), the theoretical target may be around $40,000, corresponding to a decline of about 68%.
Current Status Analysis:
Currently, the price has dropped about 50% from its peak, and from a spatial perspective, it is still some distance from the limit zone indicated by historical patterns. If this cycle continues the pattern of "halving followed by a peak the following year, followed by a deep adjustment," the downside risk has not yet been fully released.
Key deductions:
1. Downward rhythm: Usually, the first sharp drop exhausts most of the momentum, and the subsequent decline is when faith is eroded. Currently, it may be in a transitional period where the "sharp drop has passed, but the bearish decline is not yet complete."
2. Bottom signals: The real bottom doesn't appear at the level everyone expects to buy, but when most people are afraid to add to their positions, check their accounts, or even bother discussing prices.
3. Sentiment indicators: You can pay attention to on-chain data (such as miner sell-offs, long-term holder transfers), contract long-short ratios, and social media buzz. When these indicators enter extreme zones together, the probability of bottoming increases significantly.
Summary:
History does not simply repeat itself, but cycles always follow similar rhythms. If past patterns apply, the current 50% drop may only be the midpoint, not the endgame. The bottom of the market often arises from the deepest despair—when that moment comes, I will share my entry moves at the right moment.
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Note: The above analysis is based on historical data and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks, so decisions should be made cautiously.The Fed hasn't raised rates, yet the 30-year Treasury yield has soared to 5.27%—who's "taking action" for Walsh?
On July 29, the Federal Reserve announced that interest rates would remain unchanged from 3.50% to 3.75%, marking the seventh consecutive month of unchanged.
Following the news, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged 14 basis points in a single day, reaching 5.23%, the highest since 2007. On Friday, it rose another 6 basis points to 5.27%.
The Fed didn't raise rates; the bond market raised its own interest.
This is not a single reason. Five layers of pressure erupted simultaneously, pushing long-term interest rates to their highest level in 2019.
🧵 First: Inflation—Oil prices surged 20% in a single month, and domestic demand hit a two-year high
In June, PCE just recorded its first negative month-on-month turn since 2020. Inflation data is cooling down, but the bond market is not buying it.
Why?
Oil prices rose about 20% in a single month. Domestic demand in Q2 hit a two-year high—domestic private final sales, excluding net exports, inventories, and government spending, grew by 3.9%, more than double that of Q1. Consumption accounts for two-thirds of the US economy, jumping directly from 0.5% to 3.2%.
One data drop cools, three data points are burning. The bond market has chosen to trust oil prices and domestic demand.
The market has already priced in a rate hike in September. Interest rate swaps show that the probability of a rate hike in September remains about 60% after the decision is announced.
🧵 Second tier: fiscal — $39.5 trillion in debt, with $1.04 trillion in interest expenses
The U.S. federal debt has approached $39.5 trillion.
The fiscal deficit for fiscal year 2026 is expected to reach $1.9 trillion, accounting for 5.8% of GDP. To fill the gap, the Ministry of Finance continued to issue additional long-term bonds—the net borrowing scale for the second quarter was raised to $189 billion.
Net interest expenses are expected to be approximately $1.04 trillion.
Borrowing more and more money, and the interest payments getting higher and higher. With supply continuously pouring into the market, how could yields not be high?
🧵 Third Layer: Federal Reserve—9 to 3, the biggest division in a decade
The June meeting was unanimously approved. In July, it became 9 votes in favor and 3 against.
All three regional reserve chairs advocated for a 25 basis point rate hike. This is the first time since 2016 that the Fed has three same-direction opposing votes.
Wash said, "This is just the beginning of the story, not the end." What the market heard was: even the Fed's own people think interest rates are too low.
If the Federal Reserve doesn't act, the bond market will act for it. Wash himself admitted that the market has done a lot of work in the past 42 days.
🧵 Fourth layer: supply and demand—buyers are running, sellers are stacking
Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury bonds. To defend the yen, Japan is selling US Treasuries to raise dollars.
The yield on Japan's 10-year government bond is at a multi-year high, and it is no longer reasonable for life insurance companies and pension funds to hold low-yield U.S. Treasuries.
The biggest buyers are selling, and the Ministry of Finance is frantically issuing out. Supply exceeds demand, prices fall, yields rise—this is the most basic economics.
🧵 Fifth Layer: AI—$489 billion in bonds, draining the market
Goldman Sachs estimates that by mid-2026, AI-related corporate bond issuance will reach approximately $489 billion.
Alphabet's $205 billion capital expenditure plan, tech giants' capital expenditures exceeding $600 billion—where does this money come from? Issue bonds.
BlackRock's data center bond issuance yield reached as high as 7.534%, about 287.5 basis points higher than the 10-year Treasury bond. The average yield of the AI junk bond basket reached 7.45%.
While AI is driving economic growth, it is also competing with the U.S. government for money. The stronger the capital demand, the more expensive the price of capital.
💡 Of these five factors, at least four are medium-term factors, not short-term fluctuations.
Will oil prices fall? The Middle East is still far from quiet.
Can the fiscal deficit be narrowed? 39.5 trillion in debt is just sitting there.
Can Fed Divergence Be Resolved? Three opposing votes are not for show.
Will AI investment stop? The giants' capital expenditure plans are scheduled through next year.
5.27% is unlikely to be a "one-time surge." It is more likely the beginning of a new normal.
🔗 What does this mean for the crypto market?
The liquidity environment is shifting from "loose expectations" to "tightening reality."
The 30-year Treasury yield exceeds 5%, meaning you can earn over 5% annualized returns without taking on any risk. Bitcoin hovered near $62,500, while spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of about $265 million on Friday. Spot trading volume hit a new low since 2019.
Institutional funds are withdrawing from the crypto market, shifting toward risk-free 5%+ returns. This is not panic; it is a rational choice.
The main theme of the second half of the year is to seek structural opportunities amid headwinds.
In 2020, when the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries was only 0.7%, Bitcoin rose from $10,000 to $60,000.
Now it's 5.27%, do you expect Bitcoin to hit 100,000?
It's not impossible, but the road is much harder than you think.
The Fed hasn't raised rates, but the market has raised rates for it.
Inflation data is declining, but oil prices and domestic demand are not making it fall.
AI is creating wealth, but it's also taking away your liquidity.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #30年期美债收益率创19年新高 🚨 Many saw that the 30-year US bond yield had reached a new 19-year high, and immediately began to shout: "That's it, the stock market will collapse!"
But it's not that simple.
Let's explain in human language.
Imagine that earlier it was possible to receive 2-3% per annum on American bonds almost without risk.
Now investors are demanding more than 5%.
And a logical question arises:
"Why buy expensive stocks when you can just buy bonds and get high yields?"
That is why high rates are beginning to put pressure on the stock market.
But this does not happen in one day.
History shows that after such signals, the market often rises for several months.
This was the case in 2007.
This was the case in 2018.
Even in 2022, the fall did not begin instantly — at first, the market tried to ignore the problem.
The most dangerous thing begins later.
When expensive money reaches the economy.
It is becoming more expensive for companies to take out loans.
It is more expensive to build a business.
It is more expensive to buy back your own shares.
Profits begin to decline.
And only then does the pressure on the market become really serious.
Now the yield on 30-year bonds is already about 5.27% - this is the highest since 2007.
This does not mean that tomorrow there will be a collapse.
But it does suggest that financial conditions are getting tougher.
If high yields persist for several months, the risks for the market will gradually increase.
Especially for companies with high valuations — AI, the technology sector, and other fast-growing stories.
What is really worth looking at now?
• Will problems in the credit market grow?
• Will spreads on high-yield bonds begin to widen.
• Will there be new problems for banks and commercial real estate?
• Will giants such as Microsoft, Nvidia and Amazon be able to continue to show strong profits despite expensive money?
The main thing to understand is:
High bond yields are not a "crash the market" button.
This is the beginning of a stress test for the entire financial system.
$AMZN $MSFT $XNVDA 如果市场要彻底摆脱向下的向心力，需要解决几个问题:
1、半导体高点回不去的，那个高点几乎提前计价了所有美好的未来，不能指望半导体带领大盘上行，它能稳住不崩就不错了，大概率随着时间的推移，重心震荡缓慢下移；
2、云巨头的确出现了新的叙事，开源大模型带来的算力成本降低加速了与更多非coding产业的融合，但是这种超级重资产、快速折旧、定期重购服务器的商业模式本质并不性感，如果剔除ai的外层包装，跟旧时代的盖楼收租区别不太大，而且固定资产折旧的影响还没有在报表端彻底显现，尤其未来如果还要加码基建支出、折旧财务压力会越来越大；鉴于几个云巨头已经涨了12%-15%+，他们能再往上暴涨引领大盘？我不太乐观。
3、如果LLM真的正在与传统产业快速融合，而不是仅仅在软件行业内循环，那么对市值/GDP的分母端确实有非常积极的影响。如果大盘真的要向上，必须看到LLM带动更多传统产业的实际生产力加成，ok，那么这些产业到底是哪些？LLM的加成环节主要是什么？对GDP的拉动到底有多大？目前，我并没有看到非常明确的回答，只看到巨头们说算力需求非常紧张，云订单供不应求，可是最终用户的画像始终非常模糊。
所以，终端行业用户到底是谁？LLM到底在帮他们解决什么问题？未来对这个问题的回答，将真正决定大盘的方向，这到底是一阵风吹过，还是真的春天来了？