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SPCX First Earnings Report Options GEX Preview
$SPCX
This is an options performance dominated by negative GEX
Meaning SPCX will amplify volatility regardless of whether the earnings report is good or bad
From the options flow, there are a large number of sell puts executed around $90-$110
This implies that SPCX's lower bound will have considerable buying support between $90-$110
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Key Information:
Recently, SPCX has experienced two consecutive months of negative growth in Starlink, which is SpaceX's largest revenue segment. This may impact SPCX's revenue expectations, and everyone should be well aware of this. (See Figure 3)
#SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即 🐋 Long-Term Holders may be signaling the start of Bitcoin's next major rally.
📊 Historically, $BTC bull markets unfold in two phases:
🔹 First rally: Long-Term Holders (LTHs) gradually take profits.
🔹 Pullback: LTHs aggressively accumulate more $BTC.
🔹 Second rally: LTH supply declines again as the strongest leg of the bull market begins.
💡 In the current cycle, LTH accumulation has peaked and is now starting to decline—a pattern that has previously preceded Bitcoin's second major rally.
⚠️ This cycle has already lasted 31 months, much longer than previous ones, likely due to the impact of Spot ETFs and sustained institutional demand.
👀 One key takeaway remains: Long-Term Holders still control a record amount of BTC, and their supply has begun to decrease once again.
#Bitcoin #BTC #OnChain #Whales #LongTermHolders #Crypto #BullMarket #ETFAmerican Bitcoin, the mining company under the Trump family, released its Q2 earnings report.
Net loss was $57.2 million, marking the third consecutive quarter of losses.
Logically, if such a financial report were released, the stock price should crash immediately.
So what happened? After the earnings report was released, the stock price rose more than 5%.
Has the market gone crazy?
No. The market is clearer than anyone.
Let's look at the numbers first:
In Q2, the company's Bitcoin reserves increased from 7,021 to 8,002, a 14% increase in a single quarter.
During the same period, 932 bitcoins were mined, setting a new company record.
Mining revenue was $67 million, up 8% quarter-on-quarter.
How did the $57.2 million loss come about? $71.2 million in Bitcoin holdings had a fair value impairment.
Translation:
BTC prices have fallen, and the value of holdings on paper is revalued at market price, losing 71.2 million. This is not a cash outflow; it's an accounting game.
The company didn't sell a single cent of BTC.
All 932 coins dug up were stuffed into the reserves.
Losses are just paper numbers; increased holdings are real money.
What exactly did Eric Trump say?
"Bitcoin never goes straight, and when we founded this company, we never assumed it would."
"Our advantage is that we don't buy at market price; our mining costs are about half of the market price."
The mining cost per BTC is about $36,500.
BTC price that day was $63,150. Mined it and earned $26,650.
This business—would you take the lead or not?
Even more interesting—
In the same week, Trump Media transferred $165 million worth of BTC (about 2,628 coins) to Crypto.com.
The company said, "We didn't sell it, just transferred it through escrow."
But on-chain data is clear—BTC holdings have shrunk to about 4,261 coins, exactly equal to the amount collateral for convertible bonds.
One company is desperately hoarding, while another is quietly making bets.
Same family, same token price, completely opposite configuration choices.
The CEO of American Bitcoin said, "Our view of the world is simple: Bitcoin is a growing capital asset, and we believe its long-term compound growth will outpace our cost of capital."
What about Trump Media? They borrowed money using BTC as collateral.
One is raised as a son, the other as a tool. Which do you believe?
Finally, let me say something honest:
The stock price has dropped 95% from its peak, forcing it to hold the Nasdaq listing qualification at 1:15 for the joint venture.
But the market still responded with a 5% increase.
Because everyone understands:
This is not a loss-making company.
This is a machine that continuously stockpiles BTC with mining cash flow.
The accounting loss is on paper; 8,002 BTC is real.
Currently, each coin costs about $63,500, with reserves alone worth $500 million.
Is "mining enterprise losses under fair value accounting" a warning signal to worry about, or a threshold that must be crossed?
My answer is the latter.
If you believe BTC will rise long-term, then the current book loss is the holding cost.
If you don't believe it, then you shouldn't even look at this company. The market has already answered this question with a 5% increase.🚨💸 Coldcard Wallet Hack Update: Official Damage Exceeds $100 Million
According to the latest report from Galaxy Research, the damage from the firmware vulnerability in the Coldcard hardware wallet has exceeded $100 million.
Approximately 1,596 $BTC were stolen from around 7,300 different wallet addresses.
The attackers carried out three major waves of attacks along with about 14 other smaller incidents exploited by various parties.
Approximately 90% of the stolen Bitcoin remains in the attackers' wallets and has not yet been transferred to exchanges. Furthermore, researchers are investigating a suspected fourth attack, which could bring the total damage to $130 million.📊 August 4 Morning Market Overview: BTC found support near $63,300 and began a rebound, with the past 24 hours generally consolidating sideways. The key intraday resistance level is at 64,000. After the price touched it, it began to fluctuate repeatedly, with weak short-term directional signals.
🧭 Technically, BTC is still above the EMA moving average, but upward momentum has clearly weakened. Investor sentiment remains defensive, and the market has not sent out strong offensive signals. From the chart structure, it seems more like a tug-of-war between bulls and bears in key areas.
🎯 Today's core observation is simple: can BTC continue to hold above $63,000. If this level can be repeatedly confirmed and stabilized, then short-term pullbacks may present buying opportunities. In terms of trading strategy, you can look for dip buying points in the 63,000–63,400 range, with target areas looking toward 64,100–65,200.
⚠️ It should be noted that the current pattern is volatile with a defensive bias, so chasing higher prices carries greater risk. Patiently waiting for positions is more important than rushing into the market. Market trends change rapidly, and discipline always comes first.A listed company has locked up nearly 5 million $ETH—are retail investors' holdings really going to decrease?
#BitMine成全球最大ETH质押方
As of July 26, BitMine held about 5.787 million ETH, accounting for 4.8% of the total supply; Of these, 4.917 million have already been staked, effectively locking 85% of their ETH into the network. According to company disclosures, it is currently the single entity with the most staked ETH globally.
It is clearly not content to be a large coin hoarder; its goal is to capture 5% of the total ETH supply and then use its MAVAN validator network to earn staking rewards. If all holdings are fully pledged, the company estimates it could receive nearly $300 million in rewards annually.
This is certainly positive for ETH in the medium to long term.
Millions of ETH transferred from market circulation to staking, reducing the short-term amount of tokens available for sale; BitMine is no longer just betting on coin prices; it has begun generating cash flow from ETH itself. Previously, listed companies hoarded coins like putting gold into a safe deposit box, but now this "gold" can continue to earn interest.
This news can be bullish in the long term, but it is hard to be the sole reason for ETH's short-term surge. What really needs to be watched next is whether BitMine will continue to buy, whether staking nodes are sufficiently decentralized, and whether transactions and fees on the Ethereum chain can recover in tandem.
$ETH 1. Fundamentals (underlying SpaceX physical fundamentals, indirectly affecting SPCX sentiment)
1) Positive support factors
1. On July 24, Starship's 13th round of test flights successfully completed the entire flight process, successfully launching the Starlink V3 satellite, achieving a soft landing and verifying the basic flight framework. The short-term space narrative has marginal positive effects, which could trigger a wave of buying sentiment;
2. Starlink Global Satellite Network is steadily implemented, generating stable and sustained operating cash flow, making it the company's only stable self-sustaining business; At the same time, it signed space computing power cooperation orders with AI companies, creating a second growth story in the long term;
3. The US IPO has been completed, raising $75 billion with ample cash, and there is no short-term risk of cash flow disruption or collapse.
2) Core Suppression Bearish (Leading a Medium-Term Weak Pattern)
1. Aerospace launches and Starship R&D continue to burn large sums of cash, with overall losses still hanging out. After IPOs, the market shifted from "speculating on expectations" to focusing on commercialization and realization, with patience declining; Starship still needs months or even years of verification before stable reuse launches and commercial manned/cargo commercialization are realized; a single successful test flight cannot completely reverse pessimistic valuation expectations;
2. Early August saw the concentrated unlocking of early-stage first-tier low-cost IPO tokens, putting heavy selling pressure on US stocks, which will directly drag down the SPCX linkage on the crypto side;
3. Musk's focus is scattered (Tesla, X platform, AI business), and the market is concerned that SpaceX's execution progress may fall short of previous aggressive expectations; The approval of U.S. FAA space launches still faces regulatory uncertainty.
Summary: Fundamentals have no qualitative positive changes, only sporadic event-driven catalysts, lacking hard performance to support a strong trend surge.
2. News Side (Short-term Direct Driver Market)
Positive catalyst (pulse market only)
1. The new round of Starship launches and test flights was a complete success;
2. Officially announced large commercial launch orders, renewals of major Starlink overseas clients, and major space AI computing power orders;
3. Expectations for Fed rate cuts are heating up, and the overall recovery in Nasdaq tech stocks has boosted sentiment in high-growth themes; Elon Musk publicly expressed optimism about SpaceX's long-term value.
Bearish pressure (high probability of realization soon)
1. Concentrated selling of unlocked chips puts downward pressure on US stocks, with derivatives passively falling as well;
2. Starship test flight failures were suspended, and FAA issued restriction rectification notices;
3. The US tech sector as a whole pulled back, the crypto market BTC weakened, and high-volatility themes were prioritized for sell-offs;
4. The exchange adjusts SPCX contract fees, leverage, and position limits, causing on-exchange funds to flee for risk.
The current instant messaging environment
There have been no major sudden positive news recently, and the market is in a mood vacuum after positive news materializes. Funds are waiting for SpaceX's first official earnings report after going public, with overall news being neutral to weak.
3. Technical Aspect (Current Structure at SPCXUSDT 118 Price)
Daily chart
1. The overall bearish trend is clear: the 5/10/20 daily moving averages are all pushed downward, and prices have been running below these lines for a long time. Each rebound rally rally with no volume, followed by another decline, with a large amount of high-level trapped positions accumulating above (the 130~160 range is densely trapped and selling pressure is extremely strong);
2. Current Support and Resistance:
- First support: 115 USDT (recent low point, short-term psychological support); Strong support at 108~110 USDT; a break below this range would open a new downside;
- First resistance: 125 USDT, followed by 132~135 (US stock issue price matches benchmark level, strong resistance, difficult to break through in one go in the short term);
3. Trading volume characteristics: 24-hour trading volume continues to shrink, on-market trading activity declines, mainly with existing speculation, funds drying up for incremental highs, and poor sustainability of rebounds without volume.
Hourly chart (currently near 118 for the night session)
Narrow range of fluctuations and bottoming, with bulls and bears temporarily balanced. Bulls lack active offensive momentum, bearish selling pressure is temporarily exhausted, and in the short term, it is highly likely to consolidate narrowly sideways while waiting for news or US stock linkage guidance.
4. Financial Situation
1. Crypto On-site: The main hot money players who were previously speculative are gradually exiting at high levels, leaving only retail investors with short-term chips. The proportion of large long positions is decreasing, while short positions are slowly rising.
2. U.S. stock linked funds: With IPO restrictions imminent, primary profit-making funds are eager to cash out, institutional funds are cautious and have not engaged in large-scale active bottom-fishing;
3. The liquidity of this derivative is far lower than that of mainstream BTC/ETH, making large pending orders prone to pin slippage and weak liquidity that amplifies price fluctuations.
5. Short-term trend prediction by cycle (next 3~15 trading days)
Scenario 1: Benchmark Neutral Trend (65% probability)
Range: 110 ~ 125 USDT with wide fluctuations
Currently, there are no major positive news; lifting the lock-up is suppressing selling pressure + capital is on the sidelines. The night session will initially fluctuate slightly sideways at 116~122;
- Pulled back under pressure near 125, then rebounded to the 115 area for a dipping bottom;
- Near 110, short-term bottom-fishing funds will attempt a minor recovery and rebound, making it difficult to break out of a one-sided trend, with pullbacks mainly showing shakeout and volatility.
Scenario 2: Optimistic pulse rebound (25% probability)
Trigger conditions: Sudden Starship launch positive news, a sharp rebound in the Nasdaq, and a strong BTC rally driving market sentiment;
Trend: Quickly surged to the 128~132 strong resistance level. After touching the issue price benchmark area, trapped positions concentrated and dumped, then pulled back after a rally. This is a short-term sentiment arbitrage market, making it difficult to hold above 135 and form a reversal.
Scenario 3: Breakout and Downtrend (10% probability)
Trigger conditions: US stock market unlock, heavy volume plunge, Starship sudden negative news, and a systemic bearish trend in the crypto market;
Trend: Effectively breaking below the 115 support, quickly testing 108~110, testing the 100 round number level under extreme sentiment.
6. Key Transaction Risk Highlights
1. Product Structure Risk: This is only a synthesized derivative on an exchange, not a real stock. In extreme market conditions, the exchange may experience premium/discount price splits, trading suspensions, or contract rule adjustments, with no reliable protection for position interests;
2. Trend risk: The medium-term bearish structure remains unchanged, and at this stage is only suitable for short-term light positions to play within a range. Heavy positions and bottom-fishing games for reversals have very low cost-effectiveness;
3. Time window risk: The unlocking in early August is the largest potential bearish window; during this period, avoid heavy long positions;
4. Crypto derivatives come with leveraged properties; narrow-range oscillation spikes can easily trigger liquidation, so strictly control leveraged positions.Italy's largest bank reduced its $BTC holdings but shifted funds to staked ETH ETFs
Italy's largest bank, Intesa Sanpaolo, significantly adjusted its crypto ETF portfolio in Q2. Its holdings of BlackRock Bitcoin spot ETF IBIT common shares dropped from 646,809 shares to 40,723 shares, a decrease of 606,086 shares, a decrease of 93.7%; The corresponding share of IBIT call options was also reduced from 2.4965 million shares to 18,000 shares, a decrease of 99.3%.
But it hasn't completely left the crypto market.
A new put option corresponding to 500,000 IBIT shares appeared in the latest position; Meanwhile, BlackRock's staked Ethereum ETF holdings increased from 116,200 shares to 349,600 shares, a net increase of 233,400 shares, with the total size rising to about three times its original size. Meanwhile, Bitwise's Solana staking ETF dropped from 2,817 shares to 7 shares, a decrease of about 99.75%; The XRP Trust remained unchanged at 712,319 shares.
This set of data is more like a redistribution than a simple "clearance crypto."
$BTC spot exposure and upward elasticity in the direction were simultaneously suppressed, and put option protection was added, indicating that banks have clearly strengthened downside risk management. However, 13F did not disclose option strike prices, expiration dates, premiums, or delta prices. Based solely on the scale of 500,000 shares, it is still unclear whether this is actively bearish or a protective hedge for the remaining IBIT positions.
The truly noteworthy change is in $ETH. While traditional IBIT holdings have been reduced, staking Ethereum ETFs have increased their positions against the trend, and funds seem to be shifting from purely price-tracking $BTC products to $ETH products that offer both price exposure and staking yield expectations. If this trend continues, institutional allocation logic may shift from "who has the strongest narrative" to "who can provide more stable on-chain cash flow."
As for $SOL being basically cleared out and $XRP standing still, it indicates that banks are not fully betting on counterfeit assets, but are conducting very specific product selection.
Therefore, this adjustment is cautious for $BTC, relatively positive for $ETH, and noticeably cooling off for $SOL. Instead of exiting crypto, they switched their positions to structures that better fit the bank's risk preferences.
This is for personal market observation only and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard After Bitcoin dropped to 80,000 last year and then rebounded sharply, New York Fed President Williams came out to release information. The Fed has canceled the original forward guidance and gradually evolved into using voting distributions and regional Fed presidents' hints as alternative guidance. The advantage of this approach is distributed responsibility; if any unexpected news shocks the market, no one can be held accountable. However, this news flash is actually rehashing old news, with the source being an interview from last Friday.
Based on his past record, he seems more like a forerunner for signaling, and Friday's speech was essentially explaining the reason why the FOMC held steady this time. It follows the typical approach of shifting responsibility or decision-making power to the data, thereby distancing the Fed from responsibility in case of market turmoil.
From Trump's perspective, ensuring a steady rise in the stock market before the midterm elections is definitely the best plan. Theoretically, what he can do is to halt actions on Iran and tariffs to reduce inflation. Given that he recently secured quite a bit of money from Japan and South Korea, temporarily easing off on oil and taxes also has an economic basis. But practically, tariffs are one of his governing foundations and cannot be removed, and Iran won't allow easing on oil. So ultimately, it comes down to using the money harvested overseas to provide welfare and buy votes.#FedSplitGoesPublic #BigTechEarningsWatch #PalantirBeatAndRaise All three financial reports could be bombarded, but the scariest is: even after the bombing, prices don't rise
This week, AMD, Western Digital, and SanDisk are all about to release their earnings reports, and the market is eagerly hoping they can pull tech and storage stocks out of the pit. Many people believe that as long as performance exceeds expectations, the stock price will reverse. But I want to ask an even harsher question first: what if all three financial reports were good?
If AMD's data centers continue to grow rapidly, Western Digital cloud drives remain in short supply, SanDisk's gross margin remains ridiculously high, yet the stock price only surges after hours and still crashes the next day—what does that mean?
This shows that what the market lacks has never been good news; what it lacks is people willing to continue paying for good news.
So what really matters this week isn't whether the three companies can deliver their trump card, but whether the people at the table are still willing to place bets after the trump card is thrown out. Because today's market doesn't rise just because the results are good, but whether the results are good enough or well exceeds expectations may not be enough. You also have to prove that next quarter will be better, next year will be better, and growth cannot slow down.
Stocks are not buying profits, but the illusion of profits continuously inflating. Once illusions stop expanding, no matter how beautiful the profits, they may just be flowers at a funeral.
1. AMD: More than just a replacement for Nvidia
Many people interpret AMD's financial report as "whether Nvidia's affordable alternative can make a comeback," but this is actually too shallow. What AMD really needs to answer is: Is AI capital spending still expanding, or has it already begun moving from "buying everything" to "picking and buying"?
If AMD's data center continues to grow and AI chip revenue keeps rising, the market will believe cloud providers haven't hit the brakes yet. At least for a second computing system other than Nvidia, there are still people willing to spend money.
But here's the question: if AMD performs well but only because Nvidia's deliveries are delayed, customers buy some AMD at the last minute—does that count as growth? No, this is called a bargain.
AMD must prove that customers are buying it not because NVIDIA is out of stock, but because it truly enters the customer's long-term architecture. Just because a substitute can score doesn't mean the coach has decided to start you.
So the most important thing about AMD's earnings isn't how much they earned in the quarter, but whether it's the MI450 Helios and subsequent system-level products—whether it's the PPT at the launch event or the real money on customer purchase orders.
If AMD only delivers a "good" financial report, its stock price may actually be at risk. Because in the face of high expectations, meeting expectations means falling short of expectations, and slightly exceeding expectations means growth slows down.
The most expensive stocks have never feared bad news, but that good news no longer excites people.
2. Western Digital: The Data Graveyard of the AI Era
Many people ask, with AI being so hot, why look at a company that sells mechanical hard drives?
Because AI models can deceive people, orders can be packaged, capital expenditures can be circulated through each other, but data will not disappear out of thin air. When you train a model, it leaves behind training data; You run an inference run and generate logs, caches, video, voice, and enterprise data.
The GPU is responsible for generating the data, while the hard drive is responsible for collecting the data. So Western Digital isn't selling hard drives—it's selling a data graveyard for the AI era.
Computing power is like fireworks; data is the garbage that can't be cleared away after the fireworks fall.
What Western Digital Financial Reports really need to verify is: Is AI just frantically purchasing chips, or has it already begun to genuinely generate massive amounts of data?
If Western Digital's cloud shipments, per-disk capacity, pricing, and long-term orders all rise, it indicates that AI capital spending is shifting from "buying shovels" to "mining mining."
But if Western Digital's profit growth mainly depends on price increases and shipment capacity starts to slow, then caution is needed. Because price increases don't necessarily mean strong demand; they could also mean manufacturers are aggressively raising prices during the final period of tight supply after supply contraction.
Price increases are evidence of prosperity and may also be the last harvest before the cycle peaks.
3. SanDisk: Huge profits themselves are not good news
SanDisk may be the most dramatic in terms of numbers and the most intense stock price reaction among these three financial reports. NAND price hikes, shortages of enterprise-grade SSDs, locked-in long-term contracts—almost all the good news is focused on it.
Sounds like a sure thing, right? On the contrary.
SanDisk's biggest risk is that the market has already treated it like a money printing machine that won't stop.
When gross margins are high, the market won't praise you; it will only ask: How much longer can it stay high?
When the contract amount is large, the market won't satisfy it; it will only ask: Has the demand for the next few years already been signed ahead of schedule?
When everyone knows you are making huge profits, those profits themselves are no longer good news. Only by accelerating profits can valuations be filled.
SanDisk is trying to turn cyclical stocks into contract stocks, turning today's price increases into cash flow for the coming years. But here lies a very bold question: are these long-term contracts really putting SanDisk on the seatbelt, or are they setting a price ceiling for the future?
If NAND prices continue to rise in the future and SanDisk has already locked in prices in advance, then the most secure contract today could become a profit ceiling tomorrow. Contracts can lock in declines, but may also lock in gains.
4. The real turnaround is not just about exceeding expectations
So, can these three financial reports actually trigger a reversal?
My answer is: just looking at the phrase "better than expected" is far from enough.
AMD wants to prove that AI computing power procurement is still accelerating, Western Digital wants to prove that computing power has truly transformed into a data flood, and SanDisk wants to prove that storage price hikes are not one-time profits but a profit mechanism that can be continuously realized.
With one less of three companies, the market may define a rise as a rebound. Only when three chains are established simultaneously—continuing to buy computing power, increasing data, and locking in storage profits—can the market recognize that the AI industry is not overdrawing the future, but creating a new one.
But this week, there's an even more dangerous indicator: if the earnings report far exceeds expectations but the stock price doesn't rise, it could be even more serious than a financial report crash.
A financial report crash only indicates that the company has problems. Good earnings reports don't rise, but it shows that the entire market's pricing system is flawed. It means the bulls have bought in all the good news they can think of, and even if there is more good news ahead, it can only be used to help those ahead of them break even.
So this week's real trump card isn't the three companies delivering impressive numbers, but whether the funds will keep rushing in or take the opportunity to escape after seeing these attractive numbers.我是ALD社区中一员，我们是web3的共建者，Gate已经严重影响行业合规以及内部存在重大漏洞，对行业影响极大，作为行业头部领导者，我们需要共同维护行业透明度和公信力，请官方管理层关注：“关于Gate与ALD社区的上币事宜”。Why do so many people feel that knockoffs are coming to an end as $BTC's market share rises?
I actually don't see it that way.
$BTC Market share is rising. Often, it's not that knockoffs have no chance at all, but that the market is reasserting its risk anchor. Funds returning to BTC first means everyone wants to survive and put their positions back into the assets most easily accepted by the market. Once BTC stabilizes market sentiment, funds will then seek more elastic targets.
Therefore, the rise in $BTC market share should not be seen simply as a suppression of knockoffs. Sometimes it's just one stage within a bull market: first concentrate, then spread; Defend first, then attack.
Now, I prefer to understand it as BTC holding the market first, so that knockoffs have room to go further. #从降息到加息, Fed Divergences Fully Revealed: #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX Close to Close, Circle Closes #Palantir营收增93%, Gains 13% in After-Hours SpaceX released its first earnings report since going public tonight, but before the financial figures were released, the market had already priced in the volatility.
The current price of SPCX is about $116.40, about 13.8% lower than the $135 issue price, and about 42% down from its post-listing high of $201.80. The options market expects stock prices to fluctuate about 15% before and after earnings reports. Based on the current market value of approximately $1.5 trillion, one expected fluctuation corresponds to about $225 billion in market cap changes.
A larger supply variable is on August 6.
At that time, approximately 911.5 million shares held by insiders and early investors will be eligible for sale. At $116.40, the market value is about $106.1 billion. When SpaceX went public, only about 5% of its shares were in circulation; roughly estimated, the amount unlocked this round is roughly 1.5 times the initial circulating share.
The unlock does not mean 911.5 million shares will be sold simultaneously, but it will change the pricing structure originally supported by scarce tokens. Currently, about 63% of the outstanding shares have been lent out, and short selling demand is at a very high level. Earnings exceeding expectations may trigger short covering, while unlocking may increase sustained selling during the rebound. Both forces will simultaneously affect the price.
This is especially important for those trading SPCX on crypto platforms.
SPCX perpetual contracts are traded 24 ×hours a day, with one contract corresponding to one share price exposure, and funding rates settled every 8 hours. XSPCX tokenized shares also offer 24-hour price trading, but they do not represent holding real SpaceX shares, nor do they come with voting rights or other shareholder rights.
Therefore, what happened on August 6 was not an "on-chain token unlock." What truly increases is the underlying stocks available for sale in the US stock market, which first enter SpaceX's spot price, then pass on to indices, tokenized stocks, and perpetual contracts. If the on-chain market is still trading when U.S. post-market earnings are released, there may be price fluctuations, liquidity thinning, and contract premiums widening in the short term.
The market expects SpaceX's Q2 revenue to approach $7 billion, but this time, simply looking at whether revenue exceeds expectations is not enough. The stock price must simultaneously absorb 15% of expected volatility, about $106.1 billion in potential unlock, and already crowded short positions.
Financial reports determine the first gap, and only after unlocking the actual trading volume can the rebound hold. For SPCX, this is more like a stress test combining traditional equity supply with crypto, round-the-clock derivatives trading.
#SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion ban is about to be lifted Although SpaceX caused Marx's value to plummet, it didn't stop me from remaining bullish
Just understand these four points:
1. Starlink: Transform from a money-burning monster into a cash flow cow
Self-sustaining capability: Global subscribers explode, securing huge B2B orders for Boeing, aviation, navy, and emergency communications.
Breaking fate: Traditional aerospace relies on government budgets, while Starlink offers extremely strong EBITDA and free cash flow, providing sustained financial capacity for deep space exploration.
2. Deep integration of xAI: a new narrative of space + AI computing power
Restructuring Valuation: The valuation logic has leapt directly from hard tech manufacturing to global AI infrastructure.
Orbital Data Centers: Combining ground computing power with the near-Earth Starlink network, opening up the imagination for global supercomputing and cloud computing.
3. Starship maturity: absolute launch cost monopoly
Cost reduction strike: Falcon 9 secured high-frequency reusability, while Starship reduced the orbit insertion cost per payload by several orders of magnitude.
Flywheel effect: Extremely low cost makes deploying large-size Starlink satellites more efficient, further strengthening the barrier of network effects.
4. National Defense Security and Extremely High Moat
Xingdun: Government contracts with national defense-grade private networks are set to maintain a stable revenue floor.
The dominant low Earth orbit player: Holds a de facto dominant position in heavy payload capacity and the global low Earth orbit satellite chain.
Starlink's cash flow + Starship's monopoly costs + AI infrastructure valuation premium—these three layers of logic together support SpaceX's value leap
$SPCX
#SPCX首份财报将公布, the $100 billion ban is about to be lifted The scarcer the storage, the lower the stock price: the market has already begun trading the burial of shortages
In August 2026, the storage industry suddenly hit a bombshell—the DRAM and HBM production capacity of the three giants Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix has already sold out their full-year 2027 production capacity ahead of schedule, and NAND Flash capacity is about to be fully booked. This means that storage capacity for the next year and a half has been fully locked, with cloud vendors and AI companies prioritizing supply, while consumer electronics manufacturers like smartphones and PCs may face an extreme situation where "money can't buy it."
Logically, news of "capacity sold out" should be enough to drive storage stocks collectively up, but reality is almost a joke: SK Hynix delivers historic profits, yet its stock price plummets; Samsung's chip business profits surged, causing its stock price to surge and then retreat; With insufficient enterprise-grade SSDs, severe shortages of PC DRAM, and continuous price increases for consumer-grade memory, storage stocks have not only failed to rise but have frequently plunged.
Is it the industry lying, or is the stock market going crazy? The answer is: the industry isn't lying, the stock isn't crazy, and what has truly changed is what the market is trading.
1. From "Will there be shortages" to "Can it be even more scarce": The anticipated game has ended
In the past, the market traded "Will storage be out of stock?" Now, the market is trading "It's already this scarce, can it be even shorter?" This statement is very important—supply and demand determine profits, but expectations determine stock prices.
Now, HBM shortages, server DRAM shortages, and enterprise-grade SSD shortages have almost become market consensus, with even 2027 production capacity being rushed over in advance. When everyone knows the same thing, it's no longer called "expectation gap" but "a script already written into the stock price." The market will not pay twice for the same shortage logic.
More importantly, stock trading has never been about "storage prices rising or not," but about "the speed at which prices rise." Assuming prices rose 90% in Q1, 60% in Q2, and 20% in Q3, prices are still climbing, companies are still making money, but stocks may have already started falling. Because the market sees "prices are still trending upward, but the acceleration of the rise has already declined."
The most dangerous moments for cyclical stocks are often not when the product starts to drop in price, but when the product is still rising while the stock price refuses to rise. Spot prices are seen through a rearview mirror, while stock prices are seen through a telescope.
2. "Comprehensive shortage" is a lie: the real truth is structural shortages
The so-called "comprehensive storage shortage" actually combines several completely different markets into one sentence. The real shortages are HBM, server DRAM, high-capacity enterprise-grade SSDs, and some PC memory squeezed out by capacity shifts. However, not all consumer-grade NAND models are out of stock simultaneously; enterprise-grade SSDs are competing for capacity, while the consumer-grade market has already begun to be pressured by high prices.
The sharp rise in retail prices of some SSDs may be due to channel inventory, product discontinuations, and supply structure adjustments, but it does not mean all NAND wafers are in severe shortage. So the current real state of the industry is: high-margin AI storage is extremely tight, low-profit consumer storage is squeezed out, but consumer demand itself is slowly being squeezed by high prices.
3. Price hikes turning from "good news" to "poison": the beginning of demand suicide
Qualcomm has begun warning about memory costs eroding profits, with smartphone, computer, and server manufacturers all facing rising costs. For every extra yuan earned by storage factories, downstream suppliers had to pay an extra yuan. This transmission chain is extremely harsh: storage price hikes → rising terminal costs→ terminal manufacturers raising prices or lowering configurations→ consumers delaying upgrades→ sales dropping→ and ultimately storage demand growth slows.
So storage price hikes were initially called "bargaining power." When prices rise to the point where customers can't sell products, it's called "demand suicide." Stockouts can raise unit prices, but if unit price ultimately kills sales, profit growth shifts from "volume and price rising together" to "only price stubbornly holding on."
4. High profits are "suicide ads": capital is on its way
When storage manufacturers' gross margins and operating profit margins hit historically extreme levels, the market won't just think about "how much more profit can be made," but rather "Will Samsung expand production?" Will SK Hynix expand production? Will Micron expand production? Will Chinese manufacturers accelerate their catch-up? ”
High profits themselves are the most powerful advertising supply for future new additions; the closer profits get to paradise, the faster capital rushes to build the highway to heaven. Today, customers are competing for 2027 capacity, so the original manufacturer has even more reason to expand supply in 2028. So today's sell-out is both a short-term positive and a sign of the next round of overcapacity financing.
5. Capacity Sold Out≠ Real Demand: The Fog of Panic Inventory
If the manufacturer can only deliver 70% of the requested quantity, the customer may first declare 100 to get 70 pieces; If a manufacturer is uneasy, it may apply for quotas from multiple suppliers simultaneously. Fearing shortages leads to early orders, which leads to even worse shortages, which in turn motivates more customers to stockpile goods.
Orders are increasing, but no one can say for sure how much is real consumption and how much is panic inventory. Selling out proves that "capacity is being fought for," but it does not mean that every chip has found its end consumer.
6. The collapse of crowded transactions: expectations peak, valuation compression, and clearing
Previously, storage stocks had risen too much, and the positions were too crowded. When everyone believes the same story, as long as the financial report doesn't exceed the wildest whisper expectations, it will be triggered to be delivered. Earnings triggered a decline, and leveraged funds, quantitative trading, and ETF rebalancing further amplified the decline.
So the recent crash does not mean the storage fundamentals suddenly collapsed, but rather three events happening simultaneously: expectations peaking, valuation compression, and crowded trading clearing.
What really matters next isn't how many chips are missing in the news, but four things:
1. Can the price increase accelerate again?
2. Can spot and contract prices strengthen in tandem?
3. Can mobile phone and PC sales withstand high costs?
4. After the next super earnings report is released, will the stock price continue to "die in the light"?
Remember the last two sentences: A good company does not equal a good stock, and a perfect financial report cannot save a stock priced at 120 points. Storing a real reversal signal isn't about another outrageous shortage news, but rather that after positive news emerges, the stock price finally stops falling. $SKHYNIX $MU $SAMSUNG The US-Iran situation is turning for the better—can the strait really be opened?
Starting at 7 p.m. Beijing time tonight, Saudi Arabian TV, a spokesperson for Qatar's Foreign Ministry, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent confirmed that arrangements for reopening the Strait of Hormuz will be announced in the coming hours until tomorrow
Although the news did not come from official reports from the US, Iran, or Oman, it included statements from high-level officials from Gulf countries and the US, and cross-verification greatly improved the accuracy of the information
Next, attention should be paid to whether the official reports from the US, Iran, and Oman further confirm the accuracy of the information, while Trump's remarks are temporarily ignored
Once the new strait management plan is finalized and announced, the focus will be on the issue of strait fees. If Iran still mainly charges fees, the agreement is unlikely to gain U.S. approval. Conversely, if the plan focuses on service fees and joint collection, this may be the best billing plan for straits co-management and acceptable to the U.S
Once the strait proposal is finalized, it means the US and Iran can return to the negotiating table. Next, attention will be paid to when the US and Iran will confirm the location and timing of the talks, and this trend also signals the end of the recent month-long US-Iran conflict
Moreover, I boldly believe that this US-Iran peace window + resolution of the strait issue can provide at least a three-month window of geopolitical optimism buffer, and at least until the midterm election results are announced, the US and Iran will exercise some restraint and focus on bilateral technical negotiations
Of course, don't expect the final negotiations between the US and Iran to resolve this in the short term—this is a century-old problem, and what we're likely seeing is the process of negotiation and tug-of-war
As for crude oil, take US oil as an example: once the new strait management plan is announced and confirmed, let's first look at 70-75. Once the US and Iran confirm the location and timing of negotiations, we can look at the situation around 65%. The situation is gradually improving. Congratulations to everyone for finally overcoming a geopolitical pressure point! #美伊重回谈判桌, oil prices pulled back 【LINK：真正的叙事，不是“老币”，而是数据入口】 很多人一提到 LINK，就觉得它是上一轮周期的老牌项目，没 MEME 那么刺激，也没新公链那么会讲故事。但市场最容易忽略的，往往就是最关键的基础设施。加密世界要连接现实世界，链上合约要读到价格、利率、储备、结算和机构数据，绕不开的关键词就是预言机，而 LINK 仍然是这个赛道最有存在感的名字。 第一，LINK 的优势在于位置够硬。它不是靠一张图、一句口号或者一波社群冲锋活着，而是站在“链上世界调用外部数据”的入口处。只要 DeFi、RWA、稳定币、衍生品还需要可信数据，预言机就不会消失。行情冷的时候，大家嫌它慢；行情热的时候，资金又会突然想起：原来基础设施才是真正的水电煤。 第二，LINK 的想象力来自机构化。现在市场越来越爱讲 RWA、基金代币化、链上结算和传统金融入场。问题来了：机构资产上链以后，价格数据、风控数据、储备证明、跨链消息从哪里来？这不是一句“去中心化万岁”就能解决的事情。LINK 如果继续吃到机构数据和跨链通信的增量，它的估值逻辑就不只是普通山寨币反弹，而是基础设施重估。 第三，风险也很现实。LINK 不是那种一天The damp, hot soil seeped into the Geely suit, my right eye pressed hard against the eyepiece of the 32x optical scope, breathing three times a minute, my fingertips touching the cold metal trigger.
The first rule for field coverage: never be disturbed by camouflaged noises; just watch which direction the heaviest giant cannon on the position is adjusting its position.
An 8-K battle report was decoded from a frontline cable—Strategy pulled the shipping trigger between July 27 and August 2, discarded 1,638 BTC, cashing out $104.7 million. The average transaction price was $63,957, a move that directly broke through their holding cost line of $75,419. Total open interest was reduced to 842,138 contracts. Cutting prices in their own ammunition depots is not blind retreat, but a position commander forcibly supplementing high-pressure channels for the fixed 12% preferred stock dividend and share buyback.
Zoom in on the sight's scale and take a closer look at the trajectory: compared to the fierce firing from July 1 to 5, which unloaded 3,588 BTC and fired $216 million in one go, after four full weeks of absolute silent lurking, this time, the amount of fire was reduced by more than half. Between August 2 and 3, on-chain radar again detected the covert transfer of about 299.843 BTC—a covert sentry silently switching positions, waiting for a second confirmation of next week's battle situation.
When will this heavy weapon be reloaded with purchased ammo? The conditions are extremely harsh and cold: only when the price of the nearly 10% discount on preferred shares climbs back to near the issue price and the logistics supply line is repaired will their trigger for increasing positions be released.
At this point, the crosshair of the camera is fine-tuned to the $XCH of the US stock token linked target. The pause and retreat of the main firepower points are creating a crosswind effect. The interaction between the US stock derivative token market and the underlying assets is like the tiny yaw produced by a bullet piercing air of varying densities. $XCH The slight fluctuations on the market reveal the true resistance level of derivative stocks' ability to withstand pressure during the tactical convergence period of large funds. Before the heavy gunners return to their positions, the $XCH's jump is the best instrument panel to measure the full flow wind speed across the field.
Wind speed 2.4 meters, humidity 85%, correction angle left 2 dens position.
Those novices who frequently reveal their positions and recklessly pull triggers when there is no perfect break-even ratio have long been shattered by stray bullets from arbitrage across periods. Without absolute odds, my bullets will never be loaded.
The crosshair in the right-eye scope had already locked onto cover for the next line of defense.
#MSTRSells1638BTC Technical trend breakdown (monthly + daily charts)
1. Monthly Moving Average Level (Medium-term Trend)
The current price is trading above the May monthly moving average of $202.48, with the short-term moving average flattening. The October monthly moving average is about to turn flat, with upward momentum exhausting and entering a high-level box consolidation phase; The monthly MACD turned positive for the first time, and the mid-term uptrend shifted from a one-sided bullish trend to a consolidating market. The major rally has temporarily ended, and the next 3~6 months will mainly focus on range-bound consolidation to digest valuations. The long-term moving averages for 20 and 60 months have continued to rise, and the foundation of the super long-term bull market has not been broken, so there are no conditions for a bear market reversal.
Core box: lower boundary at $190 (strong support), upper boundary at $230 (strong resistance).
2. Short-term daily chart (before financial report, 8.4~8.26)
Support: 205→200→190; Pressure: 215→222→230;
Before the earnings report, expectations are likely to fluctuate sideways in a narrow range of $205~215, while funds are waiting for earnings to materialize.
The two core policy variables (the biggest sources of uncertainty)
1. U.S. chip controls on China (long-term suppression has led to growth)
In June 2026, BIS will block loopholes in overseas subsidiaries' detours in procurement, and Blackwell will completely ban the sale of all high-end chips to China; Nvidia has completely lost the high-end AI computing power market in China, maintaining only fragmented revenue from low-end edge chips;
Potential risks: Further restrictions on Nvidia's chip re-exports to Southeast Asia and the Middle East will indirectly reduce global shipments; Positive news for hedges: Nvidia is increasing its investment in emerging computing power markets in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Japan, and South Korea to fill gaps.
2. U.S. domestic antitrust and export control spillover risks
The U.S. Congress continues to review NVIDIA's monopoly position in the AI market. If it forcibly splits the hardware-software binding model and forcibly opens up the CUDA ecosystem, it will directly weaken core barriers and put significant pressure on valuations; At present, it remains only at the research stage, with a very low probability of short-term implementation.
3. Geopolitical incidental disturbances
Escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions will push global risk appetite downward. The Nasdaq is under pressure and has driven Nvidia to passively pull back, which is a short-term sentiment shock and does not change fundamentals.
3. Path to valuation system repair and restructuring
1. Current valuation positioning
TTM PE is 32x, Qianzhen FY2027 PE is about 27~29x, PEG ≈ 0.68, compared to global hardcore tech leaders: higher than Apple and Microsoft, but significantly below the 2024 peak bubble valuation of over 50x;
Historical Pivot of the Chip Industry: Mature chip giants have a PE ratio of 15~20 times, while high-growth AI chips have a reasonable PE of 25~30 times. Current valuations are in a reasonably above range with no severe bubbles, but also not extreme undervaluation.
2. Three-stage valuation restructuring
1) Short-term (1~2 months, financial reporting cycle): Performance validation period
If the performance meets the target, the valuation will fluctuate within the 28~32 times range; Performance fell short of expectations, valuations were passively compressed to 25~27 times, and the stock price fell back to $190.
2) Mid-stage (3~12 months): Growth convergence period
As industry supply eases and revenue growth falls from 80%+ to a steady 40%~50%, the valuation center is gradually being revised downward to 24~28 times; Relying on net profit growth to absorb valuations, while stock prices are slowly rising driven by earnings, the room for valuation cuts is limited.
3) Long-term (1~3 years): Growth logic switch
After AI computing infrastructure saturation, NVIDIA shifted from a high-growth stock to a stable value growth target, with valuations returning to 20~25 times the industry's mature valuations, relying on automotive chips, AI software subscriptions, and industrial AI businesses to open up a second growth curve to support valuations.
3. Core valuation catalysts and conditions triggered by valuation reduction
✅ Valuation upward revision catalyst: Rubin architecture mass production exceeded expectations, major clients added annual orders worth tens of billions, the Federal Reserve began rate cuts, CUDA software subscription revenue surged rapidly;
❌ Valuation decline triggered: U.S. antitrust measures, a sharp reduction in global AI capital spending, and HBM oversupply leading to chip price wars, with gross margins falling below 70% for two consecutive quarters.
4. Stock Price Scenario Forecast by Cycle
1. Short-term (around the financial report from 8.4~8.26)
- Benchmark Trend: 205~215 USD ranges sideways; The earnings report was neutral, with a slight after-hours rally and pullback, closing at $210~$218;
- Optimistic: Earnings exceed expectations + guidance raised to break $220, testing $225~$230;
- Pessimism: Earnings falling short of expectations, quickly pulling back to $200, and extremely testing the $190 support level.
2. Mid-term (3~6 months, until the end of 2026)
Mid-range range: $190~$240
Optimal path: steady performance realization, moderate valuation rise, and a fluctuating upward trend to reach $235~240;
- Weak path: Liquidity fluctuations + cooling industry sentiment, repeatedly oscillating within the $195~$220 range.
3. Long-term (12 months)
The institutional consensus target price is $269, corresponding to a valuation of about 28 times, provided annual revenue growth stays above 40% and gross margin stays above 70%; If growth falls short of expectations, the target price will be revised down to $230~245.
5. Core Risk Summary
1. Policy Risks: U.S. regulations tighten again and antitrust sanctions; China's comprehensive domestic substitution of computing power is a long-term loss of incremental loss;
2. Supply risk: TSMC's CoWoS and HBM capacity are being rapidly released, leading to a reversal in industry supply and demand, and chip price cuts eroding gross margins;
3. Competitive risk: AMD, Broadcom, and Google TPUs are aggressively capturing data center market share;
4. Macro risks: Delayed Fed rate cuts, systemic U.S. stock market pullbacks, global tech companies cutting AI capital spending;
5. Risk of technological iteration: The new computing architecture disrupts the traditional advantages of GPUs.
6. Summary
Nvidia's fundamentals remain the strongest in the global chip industry, with ultra-high profit margins, a monopoly-level ecosystem, and long-term contract orders locking in short-term performance floors, so there is no logic of fundamental collapse; The current stock price of $210 is a phase of volatility and bottoming out under reasonable valuation. The large-scale rally has ended, and future earnings have shifted from earning valuation premiums to earnings from earnings growth.
Operation perspective: Around $190 is an excellent medium- to long-term positioning range; above $230, the cost-performance ratio is low, suitable for taking profits and reducing positions; Before the financial report, avoid heavy positions and gambling; focus on position control and range-bound trading.
The above is merely the fundamental logic analysis of Nvidia by "When Water Overflows," and does not constitute any trading or investment advice. U.S. stocks are highly volatile, and high-valuation tech stocks share the same profit and loss source. Be sure to manage your position risk carefully.When both traditional DRAM and NAND hit multi-year highs, my first reaction wasn't to chase memory stocks, but to distinguish: is this a demand explosion, or a structural shortage caused by AI squeezing out capacity? HBM and AI servers occupy advanced production capacity, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are reducing supply of older DDR4 and traditional NAND, and PC manufacturers are restocking early, naturally pushing prices higher. This is indeed beneficial for SK Hynix: HBM earns high gross margins, while traditional storage enjoys price increases, effectively profiting from both sides. But stock prices are trading for the future. Although SK Hynix's Q2 profit hit a record, it was still below market expectations; This year's capital expenditure is planned to exceed 40 trillion KRW, and Changxin Memory's capacity expansion is also increasing supply pressure after 2027. The current contradiction is: spot prices are at a cyclical high, yet the market is beginning to worry about the next round of capacity release. Previously, after doubling my position and going long on SK Hynix, the product fell 16.65%. I will watch whether DRAM contract prices can rise for two consecutive quarters, rather than just looking at a one-month high. Do you think the storage price hike cycle can continue into 2027, or has the stock price already peaked early? $SKHYNIX $MU #韩股重挫5%, storing long-short signals in a standoff GPUs are still selling shovels, but Palantir has already started collecting taxes
Over the past three years, the world has poured trillions of dollars into the AI field. GPUs have sold out, data centers have sprung up, and tech giants have even started researching nuclear power plants to compete for electricity. But when business owners open their financial reports, AI is indeed very smart, but where exactly is the money being made? OpenAI is still raising funds, Anthropic is still burning cash, cloud providers’ capital expenditures are like bottomless pits, and many companies have bought a bunch of AI tools, with the biggest result being just that employees write weekly reports five minutes faster. Just as everyone began to doubt whether the so-called AI revolution might just be an expensive PPT contest, Palantir suddenly delivered a nearly outrageous financial report.
In Q2 2025, Palantir’s revenue was about $1.94 billion, a 93% year-over-year increase; U.S. commercial revenue surged 149%; the value of new contracts signed in a single quarter was $3.37 billion; free cash flow exceeded $1 billion for the first time; and the full-year revenue guidance was raised by nearly $500 million at once. After hours, the stock price rose more than 12%. The biggest significance of this report is not that Palantir exceeded expectations again, but that the AI industry finally has a real player who turns computing power into cash flow. Ironically, this company neither manufactures GPUs nor trains the strongest models. While OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic are fighting fiercely over whose model is smarter, Palantir stands aside and says: “Keep fighting, it doesn’t matter who wins, because in the end, everyone has to connect to my system.”
This is what makes Palantir so formidable. Nvidia sells computing power, model companies sell intelligence, Palantir sells control. Enterprises certainly want to use AI, but they dare not hand over customer lists, production data, supply chain information, and internal decisions to an external model company, because the stronger the AI, the more afraid enterprises become. They worry about data leaks, loss of control, models spouting nonsense, and most of all, that one day their core knowledge and experience will all become someone else’s training material. So what Palantir sells is not a chatbot, but a set of AI cages: who can see the data, who can call the model, what the model can do, which actions must be manually approved, how to assign responsibility if something goes wrong — all locked inside the enterprise’s own system. Management calls this AI sovereignty. To put it more bluntly, enterprises don’t refuse to use AI, they just don’t want to hand over the reins to AI companies. Palantir’s job is to bring AI through the door for enterprises and then put a collar on it.
This also explains a very exaggerated data point: the number of U.S. commercial customers grew about 35%, but U.S. commercial revenue grew 149%. Customers didn’t grow fourfold, but revenue nearly grew 1.5 times, indicating that the real driver of performance is not constantly acquiring new customers, but that once old customers start using it, they buy more and more. First let AI handle customer service, then manage inventory, analyze data, enter approvals, and finally even directly intervene in decisions in factories, banks, hospitals, and military systems. Palantir is no longer selling software licenses but laying a nervous system inside the enterprise’s veins. Once it’s in, it’s not so easy to pull out.
Even more counterintuitive is that the cheaper, stronger, and more homogeneous models become in the future, the more valuable Palantir may become. Because models will gradually become commodities — today you use OpenAI, tomorrow you can switch to Anthropic, the day after you can connect to open-source models — but the enterprise’s own data, permissions, and business processes won’t be easily replaced. Models are just engines; Palantir controls the steering wheel, brakes, and traffic rules. So the stronger OpenAI gets, it doesn’t necessarily eliminate Palantir. On the contrary, the stronger the model’s capabilities, the more enterprises need a system to prevent it from running wild. This is why Palantir may become the most unique type of company in the AI era: it’s not responsible for creating the smartest AI, but for deciding what these AIs can and cannot do, and ultimately how to make money for clients.
But the problem lies exactly here: Palantir’s business is materializing, but its valuation has already celebrated many years in advance. Based on the current market value and full-year revenue guidance, its expected price-to-sales ratio is close to or even exceeds 40 times, meaning the market expects not just continued excellence but nearly abnormal growth for many consecutive years. As soon as U.S. government orders slow down, enterprise AI investment cools, or OpenAI, Microsoft, and Google start filling in data governance, permission control, and workflow capabilities themselves, this valuation could quickly lose support.
So this financial report does not prove that Palantir is already more profitable than Nvidia; it proves another thing: the first phase of AI is that whoever owns the GPU owns the discourse power; the second phase of AI is that whoever can integrate these expensive GPUs into enterprise processes and truly save money, make money, and make decisions for clients will take the profits. Nvidia is still selling shovels at the mine entrance; Palantir has already entered the mine and started charging tolls based on mining results. And in any gold rush, selling shovels is profitable, but the real windfall often belongs to the one who sets the rules, controls the roads, and charges everyone. $GOOGL 杰理科技的初步中签结果出来了，见证历史。 申购资金大约1.41万亿，历史新高，并且大超预期。100股门槛大约475w，2+1门槛大约960w，3+1大约1425w。 有点险，但我安全上岸了。 明天森合高科上市，分析一下。 公司概念一般，业绩还行。不过流通老股巨多，有1696.42万股，流通市值9.93亿很大。 要爆炒难度有点大。预计涨幅50-100%，对应价格43.6-58.1。 如果不低于预期，我就不格局了。 明天还有恒兴股份申购，分析一下。 申购资金预计1.15w-1.2w亿，应该不会超预期。如果1.2w亿，100股门槛大约640w。 说下申购方案。 放弃：600w以内的账户，中签希望不大，可以放弃。 100股：650w希望很大。 2+1: 1300w拿200股希望很大，1350w拿2+1希望很大。 顶格：1511.65万大概率是2+1，打顶格意义不大，如果实在焦虑也可以考虑顶上。 我计划1350w拿2+1。 -- 今天是难得的普涨行情。 科技集体起立，存储+6%，CPO+6.7%，芯片+5.3%。最近科技的行情，没个大心脏玩不了，刚从ICU出来就拉去KTV，KTV屁股还没坐热，又Tonight's market seemed to be paused then suddenly released; ETH released a bunch of news within just over ten minutes, while the price seemed to be waiting for a bigger answer. Have you ever felt for a moment that you're not staring at the candlestick chart, but rather the remote control in the hands of some big shot? To be honest, my impression tonight is: the market isn't without direction; it's that its sense of direction has been temporarily "taken over" by external events. With the US and Iran returning to the negotiating table, oil prices immediately gave back. This should have been a signal of rising risk appetite, but ETH's reaction was somewhat "ambiguous"—no aggressive rally, no panic sell-offs, more like repricing the "uncertainty decline" itself. Here's a point that's easy to overlook: the real impact of a drop in oil prices isn't crude oil itself, but the market's expectations for the inflation path. Once inflation expectations ease, interest rate pressure eases, which is potentially beneficial for long-duration assets (such as high-beta crypto counterfeits and yield-bearing ETH assets). But the question is, has this positive factor already been priced in advance? Judging from ETH's relative strength over the past few days, it seems funds have partially bet on the "geopolitical cooling" scenario. The cross-market linkage logic is as follows: - Event: US-Iran negotiations → oil prices fall → inflation expectations fall → pressure on US Treasury yields eases → risk assets gain breathing room. - But within the crypto market, funds have not become aggressive because of this; instead, it feels more like "taking advantage of the situation to rebalance." BTC remains steady, ETH attempts to catch up, but it's still a hill🔥The harsh truth of the market: those who speak the truth don't last until the bubble bursts.
In the early years, CZ predicted a crypto super cycle in 2026, which seemed exaggerated at the time.
Later, it became clear that as an "ecosystem builder selling shovels," his stance was inherently different.
A quote from Grantham reveals Wall Street's unspoken rules.
1929, 1972, 2000—countless bubbles in history.
Although the vast majority of analysts predicted a bear market, no institution dared to publicly call for an exit.
Why?
If you warn of risks early and the market keeps soaring, you lose your clients.
Grantham’s business was halved because he was bearish too early.
Keynes famously said: it’s better to be wrong with the crowd than right alone.
The same applies to today’s AI market.
Some say AI is an epic bubble; others say computing power demand is endless.
It’s not necessarily about who’s lying.
Many views stem not from a lack of understanding but from differing positions.AMD: Numbers Are Within Expectations, The Real Focus Is on the AI Pace in the Second Half
Consensus roughly locks in revenue at $11.1–11.3 billion (about +47% YoY), adjusted EPS around $1.61. The company's previous guidance midpoint was $11.2 billion ± $300 million, and consensus almost exactly matches the midpoint, indicating the market has already priced in "strength."
A deeper look:
Data center business remains core. This segment clearly accelerated last quarter; the market is now watching the actual shipment pace of Instinct AI accelerators, ASP changes, and whether EPYC server CPUs are accelerating share erosion against Intel.
Whether gross margin can hold steady near 56%. Last quarter showed a good recovery; if maintained, it indicates the product mix is shifting toward higher-value AI.
The guidance for the second half is the real catalyst. The mass production pace of the MI series and Helios platform, along with cloud vendor order visibility, will determine if the market is willing to continue granting AMD a higher valuation premium.
Historical pattern: AMD has often slightly beaten expectations in recent quarters, but the real stock price surge usually happens when management provides clearer, more optimistic statements about AI demand in the second half. If tonight’s report is just "in line with expectations + neutral guidance," the reaction may be muted; stronger AI visibility could trigger a re-rating.
2. SpaceX: The First Ever Public Quarterly Report, Core Conflict Between "Starlink Cash Flow" vs "AI + Starship Burn"
Consensus roughly at $6.8–6.9 billion revenue, loss per share about $0.23–0.26. This is the company’s first formal quarterly report since going public, and the market is highly sensitive to the numbers.
More important when broken down:
Connectivity (Starlink): Currently the only consistently profitable segment. The market watches user growth, whether ARPU stabilizes, and if profit margins can continue to improve. If Starlink’s margin beats expectations, it will significantly ease concerns about overall losses.
AI segment: Revenue expectations have jumped sharply (from about $800 million in Q1 to possibly near or above $2 billion), but capital expenditures are very high. The market’s real concern is whether this AI compute power has already converted into quality, renewable customer revenue, rather than just "building first, then finding customers."
Space segment: Launch services + Starship R&D are still burning cash. Progress on Starship (launch frequency, recovery success rate, commercial payloads) will directly impact the long-term narrative.
A deeper conflict lies in valuation versus reality mismatch. The company remains at a trillion-dollar market cap level and soon faces large-scale lockup expirations. If tonight’s report shows Starlink cash flow is strong enough and AI order visibility improves, the market may temporarily tolerate losses; otherwise, if AI burn rate clearly outpaces revenue realization combined with lockup pressure, stock volatility will significantly increase.
3. Circle: USDC Circulation Is the Real "Fundamental Thermometer"
To be released pre-market tomorrow. Consensus roughly at $710–740 million revenue, EPS $0.16–0.21. Surface numbers show little fluctuation, but underlying metrics are more critical.
Key observation points:
USDC end-of-period circulation: About $77 billion at Q1 end, recently fallen back to around $73 billion. Whether circulation stops declining and if average circulation still grows slightly will directly determine the sustainability of reserve income.
Reserve yield and distribution costs. Changes in interest rate environment + revenue-sharing arrangements with channels like Coinbase will affect actual retained profits.
Progress in non-crypto scenarios. If management can provide concrete data on payments, institutional settlements, on-chain applications, and other "non-speculative demand," sentiment will ease considerably; if still highly dependent on crypto trading activity, the market will reassess growth potential.
The stablecoin business is essentially a "leverage game of interest rates + circulation." If circulation continues to shrink, even if revenue barely meets targets, the market will shift focus to whether growth has peaked. #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 Solana同时动了两把刀：一边扩容，一边加速通缩
Solana最近两项提案值得放在一起看。
第一项已经落地：7月29日，Solana将单个区块的计算上限从6000万CU提高至1亿CU，增幅66.7%。对普通交易而言，这意味着一个区块可以容纳更多并行任务。假设某热门账户占用1200万CU，其理论区块占比会从20%降至12%，整体吞吐空间确实变宽了。
但扩容没有彻底解决拥堵。
单个区块写入同一账户的上限仍是1200万CU，账户数据增长上限仍为100MB。也就是说，普通转账可能更顺，高频DEX、清算协议和热门代币却仍可能堵在同一个账户上。路修宽了，收费站没有增加，热门时段该排队还是得排队。
第二项更直接作用于$SOL供给。双重通缩提案SGP-0002已进入支持阶段，计划把年度通缩率从15%提高至30%，让通胀率更快下降至1.5%的终点。按提案测算，达到终端通胀率的时间将从约5.7年缩短至约2.8年，未来六年可减少约1890万枚$SOL发行。
这部分不能只看“通缩”两个字。以$SOL约73美元粗略计算，1890万枚对应约13.8亿美元的潜在新增供给。减少发行有利于降低长期稀释，但验证者的质押奖励也会更快下降，网络安全预算、节点运营收益和SOL质押吸引力都需要同步观察。
治理数据还有一个细节：截图显示支持票约2719万枚$SOL，门槛为4327万枚。按两者直接计算，完成度约62.8%，与新闻所写的41.9%并不一致，最终应以链上治理页面为准。
所以这轮变化不是简单利好。扩容改善需求端体验，加速通缩收紧供给端增量，两者若同时奏效，才可能强化$SOL的长期价值捕获；若热门账户瓶颈依旧、验证者收益下降过快，市场也会重新定价。
接下来我更关注四项数据：失败交易率、优先费中位数、DEX高峰期账户争用，以及SGP-0002的实际质押支持进度。
仅为个人市场观察，不构成投资建议，DYOR。
$SOL #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 #从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully public
According to TradingBeats monitoring, among Hyperliquid's five popular stocks—SKHX, MU, SNDK, SPCX, and CXMT—the highest single address had the highest order amount, with a total of 6 large orders totaling about 30.442 million USD. The only new position order was a buy at SNDK's low level. The specific layout is as follows:
SNDK: Currently quoted at $1,292, up 3.4% in 24 hours, with Q4 and full-year results to be released on August 5
SNDK is currently trading at $1,292, up 3.4% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of about $486 million and open interest worth about $117 million; The current hourly funding rate is about -0.0013%, with shorts paying funding fees to longs.
The top 1 order address is 0x0ad9: currently holding 3,890.8 long SNDK positions, with a position value of about $5.028 million, average opening price of $1,287, and a floating profit of about $20,000.
This address placed a $2.5 million new buy order at $1,187 and a $5,435,000 'position only' sell order at $1,397, representing an 8.1% lower and 8.1% higher than the current price, respectively. Before the earnings report, arrange two-way range trading around the spot price.
SPCX: Currently at $115.98, up 6.5% in 24 hours, including the first earnings report and unlocking after listing
TOP 1 order placement address 0x0871: Went long 50,000 SPCX at 20x cross-margin position, with a position value of about $5.797 million, average opening price of $126.36, unrealized loss of about $521,000, and liquidation price of about $73.5.
This address placed a $7.65 million 'Reduce Position Only' sell order at $153, covering the entire position. This price is 31.9% higher than the current price, 21.1% higher than the cost, and above the IPO price of $135, still betting on earnings reports or the negative impact of the lock-up unlock, leading to a stronger rebound.
SKHX: Currently quoted at $1,072, down 3.6% in 24 hours
TOP 1 order address 0x364a: Went long 5,488.2 shares of SKHX at 2x cross-margin, with a position value of about $5.888 million, average position opening price of $1,288.6, and an unrealized loss of about $1.184 million.
This address has placed a 'Reduce Position Only' sell order at $1,305, planning to close out the entire position in one go, with an order amount of about $7.162 million. This price is 21.7% higher than the current price but only 1.3% above its average opening price, and will exit once SKHX rebounds above the cost line.
MU: Currently quoted at $830.5, down 1.3% in 24 hours
The TOP 1 order address is also 0x0ad9: went long 11,100 MU at 2x cross-margin position, with a position value of about $9.186 million, an average position price of $856.4, and an unrealized loss of about $284,000.
It has placed a $4.5 million "Reduce Position Only" sell order at $860, planning to sell 5,232.6 lots, cutting about 47.3% of its position. The order price is only 0.4% higher than the cost, indicating that the address is not waiting for MU to return to its high level, but is preparing to reduce its position as it nears breaking even.
CXMT: Currently quoted at $7.984, up 2.0% in 24 hours
TOP 1 order address 0x934d: Went long 255,600 units of CXMT at 4x isolated margin position, position value about $2.043 million, average position opening price $6.30, floating profit about $433,000, liquidation price about $4.30.
This address has placed a $3.195 million 'Reduce Position' sell order at $12.5, covering all positions. This price is 56.6% higher than the current price and 98.5% higher than the position building cost, with plans to double the profit.NVIDIA (NVDA) conducts a comprehensive and in-depth analysis
Benchmark time: East Asia opening at $210 on August 4, 2026; Next financial report: FY2027 Q2 financial report to be released after market close on August 26, 2026
Overall conclusion forward: Currently in a high-level oscillating bottoming range, fundamentals are highly resilient, but valuations lack momentum for unilateral surges; The earnings report is likely to slightly exceed expectations; in the short term, there will be a fluctuating game; in the medium term, the Blackwell architecture will boost volume and maintain high profit margins due to HBM shortages; The core suppression comes from policy decoupling between China and the US, tightening liquidity in US stocks, and marginal easing of interbank supply; Annual valuations gradually narrowed from extreme premiums to reasonable growth valuation centers, with stock prices fluctuating upward within a range, with no unilateral bull or deep crashes.
1. Current Market Base ($210)
1. Core Basic Data
- TTM P/E ratio: 32.17x, total market cap about $5.1 trillion, 52-week range $95.04~$236, current price in mid-to-high range this year, about 11% drawdown from yearly high;
- Over the past three months, the stock price has fluctuated narrowly downward by 2.4%. Funds have shifted from pure AI themes to low-level sectors such as storage and supporting hardware, and Nvidia has entered a phase of capital competition among existing funds;
- Equity structure: Institutions hold 70.8%, with Vanguard and BlackRock together holding over 17%. Passive bottom positions are stable, with selling pressure mainly driven by short-term profit-taking and active fund adjustments, with no systematic sell-off basis; Jensen Huang holds only 3.33%, with very little pressure on equity pledges and reductions.
2. Short-term market pricing logic
The current market pricing has already been factored into the high growth expectations in the Q2 earnings report. The current price is $210 price in: a consensus expectation of revenue of 91.8 billion and EPS of 2.08 USD. Unless the earnings report exceeds expectations and gross margin rises further, the positive news is likely to be realized by "buying expectations and selling facts"; Negative factors only appear in three extreme scenarios: slowing orders, a sharp decline in gross margins, and sudden policy increases.
2. Breakdown and analysis of six core dimensions
(1) Industry Supply and Demand Fundamentals (Determining Revenue Base)
1. Demand side: Global cloud vendors have long-term order locking to support their fundamental base
Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon—four major overseas cloud providers—have locked in the vast majority of Blackwell (B100/B200, GB200) capacity for the entire year of 2026 + the first half of 2027; AI agents and trillion-parameter large model iterations continue to drive up computing demand, GPU rental contract prices have risen 40% since October 2025, spot supply remains tight, and delivery cycles remain at 36~52 weeks.
On the consumer side, demand for GeForce gaming chips remains stable, automotive chip business is steadily growing, and data center business accounts for 88% of total revenue, making it the absolute core foundation.
Negative constraints: China's revenue share has shrunk to 9% (26.4% before controls), high-end chips cannot be directly sold to China, H200 special chips are almost never purchased domestically, permanently losing incremental market value worth hundreds of billions, and domestic Ascend computing power continues to erode local computing demand, which is a long-term growth ceiling constraint.
2. Supply side: The bottleneck shifts from GPU wafers to HBM storage + TSMC CoWoS packaging
TSMC's advanced CoWoS packaging capacity is fully loaded by mid-2027, while HBM3e/HBM4 is dominated by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. The full 2026 capacity has already been sold out in advance; The new generation Rubin architecture was dragged down by HBM4 yield validation, with annual output down by 25%. The tight supply situation cannot be fundamentally alleviated throughout the year, and Nvidia's continued pricing power is the core guarantee for high gross margins.
Marginal changes: After Q4 2026, packaging capacity will expand slightly, supply tightness will moderately decrease, pricing power will slowly weaken, and gross margin will face slight downward pressure.
(2) Raw Material and Supply Chain Costs (Directly Affecting Gross Margin)
1. Core cost composition
Currently, HBM high-speed memory accounts for over 45% of chip production costs, foundry 30%, and packaging, components, and labor together 25%;
In 2026, HBM contract prices are expected to remain stable with a slight increase. Samsung and SK Hynix show no willingness to cut prices significantly, and there is no significant downward dividend on the raw material cost side; TSMC's foundry prices remain stable, with no increase in foundry unit prices.
2. Cost hedging advantage
NVIDIA signed long-term contract price locking orders with upstream suppliers to dilute unit costs through bulk purchases; The new generation Blackwell chips have significantly increased single-card computing power density, with amortization costs per unit of computing power continuing to decline; Scale effects and integrated hardware-software sales offset slight raw material price pressures, so raw materials will not have a substantial impact on profits.
(3) Profit Rate Simulation: Current financial report + medium- to long-term trend
1. Historical Earnings Benchmark
- FY2026 full-year comprehensive gross margin of 71.1%, surging to 75% in Q4 alone; FY2027 Q1 gross margin 74.9%, net margin stable in the 55%~63% range, hardware achieving software-level profitability, with extremely strong core barriers.
2. Profit margin forecast for Q2 (FY2027 Q2) will soon be released
1) Optimistic scenario (40% probability): Blackwell deliveries exceed expectations, the proportion of high-end high-margin chips increases, gross margin remains at 74.5%~75.5%, revenue exceeds $93 billion, EPS > $2.1, gross margin slightly increases, performance guidance is raised, and stock price surges to $225~230 in the short term;
2) Neutral benchmark scenario (50% probability): Revenue $91 billion~$92 billion, EPS $2.05~2.08, gross margin slightly down to 73.5%~74.2%; The reason is that the proportion of low-margin supporting servers and mid-range chip shipments passively increased, overall profitability remained stable, and after the financial report was released, the price fluctuated at high levels and tested the $200~205 support level;
3) Pessimistic scenario (10% probability): Major client orders are conservative, gross margin falls below 73%, capital flees short-term, and stock prices test strong support below $190. In terms of market performance, Bitcoin remains in a volatile trend. After yesterday's price drop, it pulled back, indicating demand intervention. However, I judge this demand to be temporary and occasional and unsustainable. The greater significance lies in linking global capital markets. Yesterday, crude oil prices plunged sharply, and the US stock index rebounded, driven by capital replenishment from the US-Iran ceasefire. Bitcoin followed a linked rally.
Minor-level resistance is near 65,000, with support still above 61,000. The weekly chart is likely to continue narrow fluctuations, and bottom formation will still take time. Be patient and wait for the price to fall 📉$SNDK (SanDisk) Market + News analysis
⚠️ Just casual chatting on the market and does not constitute investment advice! Highly elastic cyclical stocks in storage are experiencing huge single-day fluctuations as earnings approach, with strong sector linkage, and sharp rises and falls being the norm
Current Market Status:
The current price is 1375, directly pushing into the short-term strong resistance zone. After a brutal sharp drop in July, the market has entered an oversold recovery phase, with intraday trading volume significantly expanding—partly from short covering, partly from speculation on earnings reports.
Highly tied to Micron and SK Hynix, whenever Hynix moves in Korea, Sandisk resonates with it. There is still a large amount of previously trapped positions above. Now, capital is competing over the Q4 financial report after the close on August 5, with the divergence between bulls and bears fully expanded, and volatility will further amplify as the report approaches. Now that the resistance zone has been touched, low volume can easily push prices up and fall back.
📰 Breaking down the news side
🟢 Positive logic
1. AI inference servers are driving real demand for enterprise-grade SSDs. Cloud vendors are locking in long-term purchase orders, NAND spot prices continue to rise, the proportion of enterprise-grade business continues to rise, and product structure is being optimized. The market unanimously expects the revenue and gross margin figures in this financial report to be very impressive.
2. Several leading investment banks remain optimistic, with Goldman Sachs setting a target price of $2,200, expressing optimism about the continuation of the AI storage supercycle. After a deep correction in July, a large amount of panic was released, and when US Treasury yields fell, oversold funds were willing to enter and try to recover the market.
3. Inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 Index, passive index funds bring basic allocation buying interest.
4. BiCS next-generation flash technology samples have been delivered and implemented, with strong product competitiveness and sufficient orders from major clients.
🔴 Core bearish news (suppressing the main trend)
1. The biggest concern is the collective expansion of large factories. Samsung and SK Hynix are ramping up NAND capital spending, and the market is trading expectations for 2027 capacity release, with concerns that the current ultra-high gross margin will be diluted in the future, which is the root cause of the sharp drop in July. Even if this earnings report looks good, as long as next year's guidance is conservative, the stock price is prone to being slashed.
2. Market expectations are set very high, and the margin for error in financial reports is very low. Simply meeting the target for revenue and gross margin is not enough; the key is management's outlook for next year. Falling short of expectations can easily lead to positive gains and declines.
3. Sector linkage risk is extremely strong. SK Hynix's Korean stock market, Micron stock market, and NAND spot quotes all directly drive Sandisk's price movements; New regulations in the Korean stock market tightened leverage, the wave of speculative hot money in sectors faded, amplifying overall volatility.
4. Cloud vendors' capital expenditures are uncertain. If Microsoft and Google scale back on AI capital expenditures, storage demand expectations will be directly lowered.
5. High-valuation growth stocks, very sensitive to changes in U.S. Treasury yields.
Key price points
- The first resistance above is 1430-1470, a strong short-term dip; Volume growth is needed to stabilize for the rebound to continue; A high-volume rally with no volume can easily lead to a direct pullback.
- Strong resistance between 1540-1580; only after breaking through 1470 will there be a chance to test the previous high.
- Short-term lifeline support is at 1290-1320. This round of rebound is within the core defense range, holding the box and consolidating range.
- If it truly breaks below 1230, this round of recovery will fail and there will be another deep correction.
Bullish and bearish reality logic
✅ Bulls: Essential demand for AI enterprise-grade SSDs, NAND price increases; July saw deep oversold conditions and short covering; Institutions are optimistic about earnings reports, and Nasdaq constituent stocks are bringing capital allocation.
❌ Bearish: Market concerns that future capacity expansion will squeeze gross profit; Earnings expectations are fully met, leaving little margin for error; The upper trap plate is heavy; The overall sentiment in the storage sector is highly volatile.
Three scenario simulations
1️⃣ Optimistic scenario: Hold the 1290-1320 support level; Financial reports for revenue, gross margin + next year guidance all far exceeded expectations, the storage sector strengthened collectively, holding above 1470 with increased volume, pushing for above 1540; Strictly avoid chasing highs; financial reports are impulsive and not suitable for chasing highs.
2️⃣ Baseline scenario (highest probability): 1230-1470 large range with severe oscillation. Earnings data meets targets, but guidance for next year is relatively neutral; Good news is being realized with funds taking profits in batches, with bulls and bears pulling back and forth, waiting for NAND spot quotes to continue guiding the direction.
3️⃣ Pessimistic scenario: effectively breaking below the 1290 support; Earnings reports or guidance for the new fiscal year fell short of expectations, combined with a collapse in sentiment in the storage sector, causing a deeper pullback below 1230.
The harsh truth about storage cycle stocks: the market is not speculating about how much money they made in the past, but whether they can maintain high gross margins next year. The earnings report looks good, but the guidance is conservative, so it will still plunge.
Already held: For short-term defense, refer to around 1290; If you can't push through to 1430-1470, prioritize reducing positions in batches to avoid the risk of a black swan in earnings.
No positions: prioritize observance; If you are engaged in trial-and-error strategies, small positions, strictly stop losses, and be mentally prepared for large single-day fluctuations on the earnings report day.
Focus on four key items: next year's gross margin and capital expenditure guidance in the August 5 after-hours earnings report, NAND flash spot quotes, SK Hynix market trends, support gains and losses at 1290-1320, and changes in US Treasury yields.
#从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully public What Gate means is: the 100,000 USDT and 800,000 ALD we paid according to the contract arrived in the "scammer's" wallet, and coincidentally, Gate's alpha automatically scraped ALD tokens, so the process couldn't be disclosed who connected to the token. In the end, the scammer's wallet was transferred to Gate alpha for an airdrop. Is that how it works?
Hash is here, the answer is here
When a project pays for it, registers tokens, and is then told "the person communicating with you is not one of us, and the project is logged into Gate"—this is already a credibility issue for GateBefore tomorrow morning's opening, Circle will hand in again. The three companies are positioned in the three most sensitive current sectors: AI computing power, space + AI infrastructure, and stablecoins. Market sentiment from tonight to tomorrow will be quite direct.
1. AMD: Q2 figures are basically "pricing"—see guidance and data center details
AMD confirmed it will release its fiscal 2026 Q2 earnings report after market close on August 4 Eastern Time, with the conference call at 5:00 p.m. ET.
The Wall Street consensus roughly lay out as:
Revenue approximately $11.1–$11.3 billion (approximately +47% year-over-year)
Adjusted EPS is approximately $1.61–$1.62 (a year-over-year increase of over 230%)
Last quarter, the data center business was already strong, but this time the market is more concerned about:
Instinct AI accelerator actual shipment pace and ASP
Will the share of EPYC server CPUs continue to erode Intel?
Will next quarter and full-year guidance be raised (especially for AI GPUs)
Can gross margin remain stable around 56%?
The current stock price fluctuates between $480 and $500. If it is only "in line with expectations," the response may be lukewarm; What truly drives the stock price is management's stance on the MI series and Helios platform in the second half of the year.
2. SpaceX: First quarterly report release ever—can Starlink continue to "nurture" AI and Starship?
SpaceX (SPCX) released its first quarterly earnings report as a publicly listed company after the market closed today.
The general consensus is:
Revenue is approximately $6.8–6.9 billion
Loss per share is about $0.23–0.26
Breaking it down is more important:
Connectivity (mainly Starlink): Still the only sector with stable profitability, with the market focusing on user growth, ARPU, and profit margins
AI sector: revenue expectations have surged sharply, but capital expenditures are extremely high and losses continue to widen
Space Sector: Launch Services + Starship R&D are still burning money
The company's valuation remains in the trillion-dollar range and will soon face large-scale lock-up unlocking. The core of this financial report is not "how much is lost," but whether Starlink's cash flow can support AI computing power and Starship's long-term narrative. If Connectivity's profit margin exceeds expectations or management provides a clearer path, sentiment will be noticeably better; Conversely, the market's tolerance for "burning money" will rapidly decline.
3. Circle: Making the grand finale, USDC circulating supply is the true indicator
Circle (CRCL) will release its Q2 earnings report before the market opens on August 5, with a live broadcast at 8:00 a.m. ET.
The general consensus is:
Revenue is approximately $710–740 million
EPS is approximately $0.16–$0.21
There is only one and a half key observation points:
USDC ending circulating supply (about $77 billion at the end of Q1, recently dropped back to around $73 billion)
Average circulating supply, reserve yield, distribution costs (especially the profit-sharing arrangement with Coinbase)
Stablecoin business profits heavily depend on the interest rate environment and circulation. If circulating supply continues to shrink, even if revenue barely meets targets, the market will focus on whether growth has peaked. Conversely, if management can provide information on USDC's progress in non-crypto scenarios (payments, institutional settlements, on-chain applications), sentiment will be much lighter.
Tonight: AMD and SpaceX will be announced simultaneously, AI computing power + space narrative resonance, with significant fluctuations.
Tomorrow: As a representative of the stablecoin sector, Circle's results will directly affect sentiment in crypto-related sectors. #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to hand over, with Circle as the grand finale ISM manufacturing hits a four-year high, US Treasury yields fall instead—is the market betting on rate cuts?
Today, an interesting signal has emerged in the global market.
The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index hit a nearly four-year high, indicating that the U.S. economy is not as weak as the market previously feared.
However, at the same time, U.S. Treasury yields have retreated.
This somewhat deviates from traditional logic.
Normally, the stronger the economic data, the more the market worries about inflation, reducing the Fed's room to cut rates, and US Treasury yields should rise.
But this time, the funds chose to buy U.S. Treasuries.
What the market is truly trading may not be the current economy, but future monetary policy.
The ISM Manufacturing Index has long been regarded as an important indicator of the U.S. economy.
Previously, the market had long worried that high interest rates would suppress business activity and could even lead to a rapid economic cooldown.
But the latest data shows that U.S. manufacturing is recovering.
Improved enterprise production.
Market demand is recovering.
The economy remains resilient.
This means the U.S. economy has not entered a clear recession phase.
But problems also arise:
With such a strong economy, why is the Fed cutting rates?
This is currently the biggest market disagreement.
Some investors believe:
The economy remains stable, inflation continues to decline, and the Federal Reserve still has opportunities to gradually ease policy in the future.
Another group of investors believes:
An overheated economy may lead to fluctuating inflation, and the high interest rate environment may persist for longer.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields have fallen, indicating that the market currently prefers to trade for future easing expectations.
Funds are being laid out in advance:
If future interest rates fall and bond prices rise, risk assets may also gain new liquidity support.
For the crypto market, liquidity has always been a core variable.
Recent rounds of BTC rallies have been closely related to changes in the global funding environment.
When the market expects a rate cut:
Dollar liquidity improved.
Funding costs decrease.
Investors are more willing to allocate to high-risk assets.
This is also why, after the Bitcoin ETF was approved, institutional funds began to focus on BTC.
Currently, Bitcoin's price is fluctuating around $62,000.
After BTC failed to break through $65,000, it entered a correction phase.
In the short term, both bulls and bears are waiting for new catalysts.
On one hand, ETF funds and institutional allocations provide long-term support.
On the other hand, macro policy uncertainty limits upside potential.
BTC is currently focusing on:
Below:
Support area between $60,000 and $62,000.
Above:
$65,000 resistance level.
If Treasury yields continue to fall and market risk appetite improves, BTC may retest resistance levels.
Ethereum is currently priced around $1850.
ETH has recently underperformed BTC.
The reason is not that the ecosystem has lost value, but that capital has become more cautious.
RWA, stablecoins, DeFi, and Layer 2 remain key directions for Ethereum's long-term development.
However, short-term market conditions still require a liquidity environment to support the market.
Currently, ETH is focusing on:
$1800 support.
SOL is currently fluctuating around $70.
Compared to BTC and ETH, SOL is more sensitive to market sentiment.
Over the past year, Solana attracted massive capital thanks to its Meme ecosystem, low fees, and high trading activity.
But the characteristics of highly elastic assets are:
Gains are even greater when the market is optimistic.
When the market is cautious, adjustments happen more quickly.
If funds return to risk assets in the future, SOL may still become a rotation direction.
The divergence between ISM manufacturing data and U.S. Treasury yields sends an important signal:
The market has shifted from focusing on "how is the economy now" to "will liquidity become more relaxed in the future?"
For the crypto market, what's truly important next isn't just a single piece of news.
Instead:
Federal Reserve Policy Direction.
Changes in dollar liquidity.
Global capital risk appetite.
BTC is watching support at $62,000.
ETH is focusing on the $1800 defense.
SOL is watching the $70 area.
If liquidity expectations continue to improve, the crypto market may welcome new capital opportunities.
But if inflation heats up again and the Fed maintains high interest rates, risk assets will continue to come under pressure.
In the next phase, the market will compete not on whose story is bigger.
It's about who can actually get the inflow of funds. $BTC #ISM创四年新高, U.S. Treasury yields have turned down Solana's tokenomics could be heading for a major shift.
Two governance proposals are now under discussion that may significantly reduce future $SOL issuance while increasing the amount permanently removed from circulation. Recent discussions around SIMD-0550 have also accelerated the debate over Solana's long-term inflation model.
To make it easier to understand, I built a simple simulator where you can instantly see:
• How much future SOL issuance could be avoided
• The projected circulating supply by 2032 compared with the current schedule
• The estimated point where daily token burns begin to offset a much larger share of new issuance
At the moment, the network creates roughly 61,800 SOL per day while burning around 1,700 SOL.
$SOL
#FedSplitGoesPublic #韩国杠杆ETF成交额降九成，波幅收窄
韩国监管上调杠杆ETF现金保证金门槛之后，效果直接落地，个股杠杆ETF成交额直接萎缩九成，市场暴涨暴跌的极端波动明显收敛 。之前韩股大起大落，很大一部分就是这批散户杠杆ETF在搞事，上涨被动追涨、下跌被动砸盘，把波动无限放大 。现在抬高准入门槛，普通散户被挡在门外，投机盘大规模退场，KOSPI从动辄十几个点的震荡，回归相对平稳的状态。
很多人觉得这是韩国本地股市，跟比特币没关系，币哥这里讲透两层关联逻辑。
第一层：全球风险投机情绪的风向标。
韩国散户是全球高风险资产非常重要的一类投机力量，既炒本地杠杆ETF，也大量参与加密市场。
现在监管打压高杠杆工具，代表海外开始给散户投机降温。传递出来的信号：高杠杆博弈的环境在收缩，整个风险偏好会趋向保守。短期不利于高波动资产疯狂爆炒，比特币很难出现那种暴力连涨行情。
第二层：半导体板块联动传导。
韩股核心就是三星、SK海力士半导体，存储芯片行情又和币圈算力、AI板块深度绑定 。
杠杆工具退潮之后，半导体股价不会再出现单日巨幅震荡，对应的算力、AI相关加密币种，波动也会跟着被压制。少了暴涨暴跌的外部催化，大饼、山寨更多走区间磨盘。
但是币哥要提醒一个误区：
成交额暴跌≠资金全部离场。只是不让新开仓，老的存量份额还在市场里面，后续遇到大跌，杠杆ETF再平衡带来的被动抛压隐患并没有完全消失，只是威力被削弱，风险不能完全无视 。
落到比特币实操层面，币哥个人观点：
1、这件事不会直接改变BTC大趋势，属于间接情绪影响，不是决定性变量。
2、全球投机杠杆整体收缩，意味着不要期待短时间再来一波疯牛行情，震荡会成为常态，追高的性价比持续变低。
3、后续重点观察：韩股平稳之后，外资资金是回流权益市场，还是继续出逃。如果外资持续回流风险资产，会间接给加密市场托底；如果资金持续避险，大饼上方压力会进一步加重。#韩国杠杆ETF成交额降九成, is the narrowing of volatility a bottom characteristic or a trap? The sharp 90% drop in trading volume and significantly narrowing volatility of leveraged ETFs in the Korean market (especially 2x/3x leveraged products related to cryptocurrencies and tech stocks) is the ultimate signal of global retail liquidity depletion.
Below is an in-depth analysis for August 4, 2026:
1. Core Characterization: The "Total Wipeout" of Retail Investor Leverage
The Korean market (especially the retail investor clusters radiating from Upbit and Bithumb) has always been a "volatility amplifier" for global high-risk assets.
*Speculative fatigue: A 90% reduction in turnover means retail investors who leveraged aggressively during the 2025-2026 bull market have been washed out during major declines (such as the previous "AI stock god" liquidations or yen arbitrage liquidations).
*Bubble bursting: This phenomenon marks the official entry into an "ice age" of irrational prosperity driven by the "kimchi premium."
2. Deep impact on the crypto market (BTC/Altcoins).
*Volatility Vacuum: Leveraged ETFs are the main providers of liquidity. The sharp drop in turnover means the market has lost an important "reverse hedging" and "momentum following" force. The result is: BTC and SOL prices may fall into a prolonged, suffocating sideways phase.
*The "chronic bleeding" of altcoins: South Korean retail investors are the main buyers of XRP, SOL, and various meme coins. The retreat of leveraged funds means these coins have lost the momentum for an "explosive rally," and future performance is likely to trend toward a bearish decline or low-speed consolidation.
* Increased liquidity vulnerability: Despite narrowing volatility, the market's "depth" has seriously deteriorated due to extremely low trading volumes. Once a sudden negative event occurs (such as unlocking shocks during the SPCX lock-up period), even a tiny sell order can trigger a massive price derailment instantly (inserting a pin).
3. Macro Signals: Bottom Characteristics or Traps?
* Max Pain: From a contrarian investment perspective, retail turnover often drops to freezing points as one of the characteristics of medium- to long-term bottoms (i.e., "buying when no one is interested").
*Changes in funding costs: The disappearance of leverage demand has reduced on-chain lending costs (for example, USDC rates on Aave will fall), which is beneficial for long-term institutional positioning (spot holdings).
4. Trading strategies for today
*Strategy 1: Abandon breakout strategies. With extremely low leveraged capital participation in South Korea, fake-out occurrences occur frequently. It is recommended to give up chasing gains and selling lows, and instead use grid trading to earn volatility profits within narrow swings.
*Strategy 2: Monitor the "Kimchi Premium." If Upbit's BTC premium falls below 0% (i.e., Korean prices are below global prices), it is a signal of extreme panic, often corresponding to short-term gold buying points.
*Strategy 3: Focus on Institution-Led Tokens. Avoiding outdated altcoins crowded with retail investors and relying on Korean liquidity, funds will focus more on Palantir (PLTR), a performance-backed asset priced by a wall-level institution.
5. Summary
"When the noise fades into silence, the market's pricing power has returned from Korean retail investors to Wall Street institutions."
A 90% drop in turnover is not a disaster, but an inevitable path for the market structure to shift from "gambler's game" back to "value game."
Risk warning: Narrow oscillations with low trading volume often signal the accumulation of significant "one-sided breakout" momentum. Watch the price of $64,680 (BTC 50-day moving average), which will determine the direction of liquidity in the next phase. The above analysis is for reference only.
#韩国杠杆ETF成交额降九成, the range narrowed to $BTC $XRP $KR 200 $MSTR A very small number of people/market makers can control the price in the current liquidity shortage.
Currently, the institutions participating in selling are limited, especially at the 60,000 price point. Once MicroStrategy's STRC returns to the waterline, it will start buying back Bitcoin again, and the market will have new money to buy coins, returning to a positive cycle.
Recently, MicroStrategy's selling events no longer affect Bitcoin's price, and retail investors have gradually become indifferent from the initial absolute panic upon hearing about MicroStrategy selling coins. This behavior is generally a sign that the negative news has been fully absorbed.
If there are no independent negative events, Bitcoin will surge to 70,000 USD in August, possibly before mid-August. Cross-chain death knell beneath the $0.008 dust: Wormhole plunges 99%, why has cross-chain security narrative become worthless paper?
$0.008. This is the latest secondary market price for Wormhole (W), the cross-chain communications leader once valued at billions of dollars, in early August.
This is absolutely ironclad evidence that the narrative of cross-chain communication security in this cycle is heading toward the ultimate demise.
Technical fans and macro analysts across the internet had previously hyped up "Wormhole broke through the communication barrier between Ethereum and Solana, is the ceiling for interoperability, and has received hundreds of millions of dollars in top VC funding," believing that a big project with nowhere left to fall at a low point is a golden pit. Everyone believes that as long as the underlying technology is strong enough, token valuations have an unbreakable logical foundation, allowing them to confidently buy at low prices and add positions.
But why is it that in a so-called full-chain ecosystem infrastructure giant, the value of the underlying tokens can crash through the base like free fall, becoming worthless junk?
Because this grand technical architecture cannot capture any substantial "economic inflow" for tokens on a physical level.
This has torn off the most absurd technological cover of so-called cross-chain leaders.
Let's calculate the value of token usage and the settlement of unlock schedules.
Cross-chain communication is indeed a necessity, but during this process, do users really need to hold W tokens long-term?
There was absolutely no need.
Users only need to complete transactions within just a few seconds of cross-chain transactions using the most basic gas fees; the cross-chain protocol itself is merely an information carrier.
This directly determines that W tokens are neither means of production nor consumable for transaction fees; they are purely "interest-free air coins" with only voting governance functions.
Facing the upcoming new biweekly unlock on August 7, early venture capitalists and core members—whose physical costs are nearly zero—are facing years of relentless, bottomless monetization.
For early VC giants holding zero-cost chips, whether the price drops to $0.08 or $0.008, as long as they sell, they make a net profit for free.
Their only move is to dump the chips unlocked every two weeks into the order books used by retail investors for bottom-fishing on compliant platforms, regardless of slippage, to exchange for real US dollars in cash.
Every principal you make from bottom-fishing at low prices is, in their eyes, just a one-time "painless exit payment card."
When I used to do asset allocation, I was also a technically deterministic buyer who was foolish. As soon as I heard the project was technologically impressive and had a strong background, I thought this was the future of gold, so I aggressively increased my position near one dollar and opened a long position. But as soon as the unlocking deadline came, VCs kept pouring zero-cost chips onto my head, pushing my position to nearly zero, with a loss rate as high as 99%. Until the day before yesterday, when I carefully studied Wormhole's biweekly unlock schedule starting August 7, and the protocol itself, aside from voting governance, was a flaw in capturing data that was useless, I felt a chill run down my spine. I realized that zero-capture tokens are worthless in the face of big unlocks. Yesterday, I didn't hesitate and emptied all the W spot in my cold wallet.
This risk-based instinct, exchanged for principal risk, preserved my only ground-level position in early August.
Technology can't change the fate of chips going to zero; don't use your flesh and blood to fill the bottomless pit of VC exits.
I often ask myself late at night: when a cross-chain giant valued at billions of dollars has its tokens ruthlessly smashed to $0.008 dust on the secondary level, and the biweekly unlock sell-offs still crazily devour liquidity like a meat grinder, are we retail investors who recharge their faith daily for "underlying communication technology" investing in the future, or are we just using our real money to serve as the cheapest stepping stone for the venture capital giants' safe exit?
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard The former "King of Bitcoin Beliefs" Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is undergoing a historic transformation. SEC filings on August 3 show that Strategy sold 1,638 BTC between July 27 and August 2, cashing out $104.7 million, at an average price of $63,957—15% lower than the average position price of $75,419, with a loss of about $11,462 per coin. Key turning point: In June, launched the "Digital Credit Capital Framework," completely breaking the iron rule of "never sell." Cash-out target surged from $1.25 billion to $5 billion (a fourfold increase). Use of funds: $52.4 million in preferred stock dividends, $52.3 million repurchased from STRC. US dollar reserves rose to $4 billion, covering 12 months of interest + dividends. Strategic logic: CEO Phong Le stated "active capital management," through coin sales + additional share issuance + preferred share buybacks. STRC remains in the $99-100 range. Currently, 842,000 BTC are still held, but market sentiment has shifted. Signal Significance: When the largest corporate holders begin to sell at a loss, the crypto market's "faith narrative" is loosening.现在资金只认大饼？以太很难跟上涨幅
不用怀疑，当下市场就是资金只认大饼的极端格局，无论大盘涨跌，大饼的韧性都远强于以太，以太完全跟不上大饼的涨幅节奏。
从资金流向就能一目了然，比特币现货ETF长期承接主力资金，即便小幅流出，体量也远大于以太资金流入。而以太更多是衍生品资金博弈，现货买盘极度匮乏，没有扎实的底部支撑。
加上八月美股周期性资金流出，整体风险偏好收紧，资金更愿意抱团低波动的大饼，抛弃高波动的以太。山寨币、竞争公链也在持续分流以太的生态资金，进一步压缩以太的上涨空间。
现阶段交易思路一定要转变，不要再惯性等以太跟涨，资金重心已经彻底锁定大饼，以太短期难有反转机会。
以太现在的尴尬处境是，牛市尾声弹性最强，震荡市、弱复苏市完全没有优势。当下就是典型的存量弱复苏行情，没有全面牛市活水，以太的高弹性优势完全失效，高风险劣势无限放大。$BTC $ETH $SNDK #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 #ISM创四年新高，美债收益率反跌 Samsung Electronics (005930. KS) Real-time Market Analysis (August 4, 2026)
1. Real-time Price Overview
On August 4, Samsung Electronics closed at 240,000 KRW, up 0.21%, with a cumulative increase of 100.17% for the year. On the same day, South Korea's KOSPI index closed up 1.62% at 6,358.95 points.
Samsung Electronics once plunged over 4% intraday, hitting a low of 229,250 KRW, but successfully turned positive in the afternoon. Market value is about 1,340 trillion KRW, with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 9.0 times.
2. Market Review: From a 4% Plunge to a Deep V Reversal
Today, Samsung experienced a typical "deep V reversal"—plunging sharply after the opening. Impacted by news of ChangXin Memory Corporation (CXMT) planning to build a new memory factory in Beijing, SK Hynix once fell over 4%, and Samsung dropped more than 3% to 4%. In the afternoon, as institutional buying poured in, leading semiconductor stocks collectively reversed their losses, with foreign and institutional investors net selling, but individual investors net bought as much as 1.46 trillion won.
Funds are spreading from the semiconductor giants to defense, construction, and power equipment sectors—Samsung and SK Hynix's losses have narrowed, but they are no longer the main drivers of gains.
3. Core Drive
📈 Positive news: Returning to the DRAM throne + the strongest financial report ever
· DRAM market share reclaims global No. 1: Counterpoint data shows Samsung reclaimed the top spot in DRAM Q2 with a 39% market share, up 1 percentage point from the previous quarter.
· Q2 financial report set a record high: revenue of 171.5 trillion KRW (+130% year-on-year), operating profit of 89.49 trillion KRW (a surge of 1814% year-on-year), surpassing Nvidia to top the global tech company quarterly profit rankings. The semiconductor division contributed 99.7% of operating profit, while storage business revenue reached 120.8 trillion KRW, surpassing the full-year 2025 level.
· HBM4/HBM4E is progressing smoothly: HBM4 is expected to account for over 60% of HBM revenue in the second half of 2026, with the 2027 HBM market share target aligned with overall DRAM.
· Wafer foundry fully loaded: aiming for 100% capacity utilization in the second half of the year, secured about $200 billion in orders from Broadcom and won bids from 2nm customers.
· Goldman Sachs raised its target price to 490,000 KRW, adding it to the Asia-Pacific Beliefs List, with an expected upside potential of 87%; Although JPMorgan lowered its target price from 480,000 KRW to 400,000 KRW, it still maintains an "Overweight" rating.
📉 Negative news: The AI premium has almost been completely erased
HSBC reports point out that Samsung's current stock price implies long-term profitability has dropped to about 0.8 times its 2024 EPS—the market not only believes AI is unlikely to bring permanent profit gains, but even prices the company's profitability for transcribing cycles before the AI wave begins, with the long-term AI premium almost completely erased. Additionally, rumors of Changxin Memory building a factory have sparked concerns about oversupply; Samsung's smartphone market share in China is down to just 0.1%; Korean retail investors are collecting signatures demanding an extraordinary shareholders' meeting to challenge the board.
4. Technical Aspects and Key Positions
Current Landscape: Since its peak in early June, Samsung has dropped about 25% cumulatively, shortening the market's implied earnings cycle from about 3.5 years to 2.5 years. Today, after dropping to 229,250 KRW intraday, it rebounded deeply and formed short-term support around 230,000 KRW.
Key resistances: 245,000-250,000 KRW (near recent rebound highs) → 260,000 KRW (reclaiming and opening upside potential) → 300,000 KRW (important medium- to long-term levels).
Key supports: 235,000-240,000 KRW (near today's closing price) → 229,000-230,000 KRW (today's low, trend lifeline) → 220,000 KRW (breaking below this level opens up greater downside potential).
5. Summary
Samsung Electronics is caught in a fierce tug-of-war between its strongest profit cycle in history and extremely pessimistic market pricing. Q2 profits surged 1814%, and DRAM market share reclaimed the top spot, but the stock price has fallen 25% from its June high, with the market almost completely eliminating its long-term AI premium. The divergence between Goldman Sachs (target price 490,000 KRW) and HSBC (believing AI premium has reached zero) is a microcosm of this bull-bear tug-of-war. Today's deep V reversal from a 4% plunge to a rally shows strong buying support around 230,000 KRW, but funds are spreading from semiconductors to other sectors—whether Samsung can hold its current price depends on whether the market can continue its final pricing in the AI storage supercycle.
$SAMSUNG $BTC $ETH $SNDK Puzzled! As long as Bitcoin strengthens, Ethereum remains stagnant
The most puzzling phenomenon on the market is that once Bitcoin stabilizes and strengthens and breaks out of the trend, sentiment in the crypto community warms up, but Ethereum remains unresponsive and fails to benefit from market sentiment.
The root cause is that the market's sense of capital has completely changed. Right now, capital fears uncertainty the most. The logic of Bitcoin is simple and clear: a constant total of 21 million, a global unified stored value consensus, and ETFs continuously absorbing funds—no complicated variables.
In contrast, Ethereum's upgrade progress is slower, the ecosystem continues to be diverted, there is selling pressure from staking unlocks, and the risk of US stock linkage is extremely high. Multiple uncertainties have combined to completely avoid stable funds. The short-term speculative capital is too small to move the overall Ethereum market.
In summary: Right now, it's a certain market. Bitcoin wins because of stability, Ethereum loses because of many uncertainties. As long as capital's risk aversion preferences remain unchanged, Ethereum will find it hard to keep up with Bitcoin's pace.大盘这几天要怎么走
$BTC $ETH $SOL
综合这几天来看，币圈整体处在一个弱市震荡、试图筑底的阶段，多空双方在关键位置争夺激烈。虽然今天（8月4日）盘面有所反弹，但前几天市场情绪要悲观得多。
具体情况如下：
· 震荡筑底（8月前三天）：前几天大盘整体回调明显，比特币一度跌至62,000美元附近。以太坊也承压，一度逼近1,800美元关口。核心原因是宏观流动性收紧预期（美联储内部分歧）和资金分歧（比特币ETF资金流出）。
· 今天尝试反弹（8月4日）：截至今天，BTC回到63,000美元上方，ETH也在1,850美元附近寻求支撑。主要受地缘局势缓和（油价下跌缓解通胀）和部分ETF资金回流带动。
· 关键位置：63,000美元是当前最重要的“分水岭”。若能守住，市场信心会逐步恢复；若再次失守，可能会下探到62,000美元甚至更低区间寻求支撑。
总体看，这几天的走势反映了宏观不确定性与机构资金之间的博弈，目前市场信心依然脆弱，暂未形成明确趋势。以上不构成任何投资建议，波动较大请一定注意风险。
#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% NVIDIA (NVDA) Real-Time Market Analysis (August 4, 2026)
1. Real-time Price Overview
As of the close of US trading on August 4, NVIDIA (NVDA) was at $206.64, up 2.93%, with a turnover of $26.227 billion, ranking third in US stocks by volume. The opening price was $197.69, with a low of $196.85 and a high of $208.74, representing a range of about 6%.
In after-hours trading, Nvidia continued to climb to $208.48 (+0.89%). Its total market capitalization has once again surpassed $5 trillion, with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 31.45. The 52-week range is $163.79–$236.29, representing an increase of about 11% this year.
2. Market Review: The "Deep V Reversal" from 197 to 208
Today, Nvidia showed a typical intraday reversal. After the market opened, it briefly fell about 1%, hitting a low of $196.85, then surged sharply over $10 to above $208. Nearly 6% of the single-day amplitude and massive trading volume of 128 million shares indicate extremely intense bullish and bearish competition.
From a broader perspective, Nvidia has pulled back about 13% from its May all-time high of $236.54, but has rebounded about 26% from its spring low of $164. Today's rally is a technical rebound after overselling, and whether it can break through key resistance remains to be seen.
3. Market Drivers
1. Goldman Sachs bullish: pullbacks are "healthy consolidation"
Despite recent sharp volatility in tech stocks raising concerns about an "AI speculation bubble bursting," Goldman Sachs Chief Strategist Ben Snyder stated in his latest report that investors need not panic excessively. Goldman Sachs believes the current pullback in US stocks is a typical concentration squeeze and consolidation. Exceptionally strong corporate earnings fundamentals remain the core engine supporting the US bull market, with giants like Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Broadcom still the main profit contributors.
2. CPO technology officially entered mass production
The official shipment of Nvidia's CPO (Co-Packaged Optical) switches marks the transition of this critical technology from the lab to large-scale commercial use. Citi confirmed improved industry outlook and CPO/NPO visibility in 2027, with shipments showing a strong recovery in the second half of the year.
3. Tight DRAM supply leads to chip specification adjustments
TrendForce stated that the recent shortage of memory supply has led to several rounds of DRAM specification reductions for AI chips. Considering LPDDR5X shortage will persist until 2027, NVIDIA decided to halve the SOCAMM capacity in the next-generation Vera Rubin Superchip modules. This is both a signal of supply chain pressure and an indirectly reflection of extremely strong demand for AI chips.
4. The final financial report from the "Big Seven"—August 26 marks the grand finale
Apple, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon have all released their Q2 earnings reports, with only Nvidia among the "Seven US Giants" making a final appearance at the end of the month. The market expects Nvidia's net profit to nearly double year-on-year. The post-market earnings report on August 26 was seen as an important catalyst for the stock price to break out of consolidation.
5. Analysts are highly unanimous and optimistic
Among the 37 institutions covering Nvidia, 36 gave a "Buy" rating, 1 "Hold," and 0 "Sell," a rare consensus of a "strong buy." The average target price is about $309, with about 49% upside from the current price, and the target price range is between $250 and $500. Both Bernstein and Wells Fargo reiterated their $315 target price.
4. Technical Aspects and Key Positions
Current Landscape: Nvidia is facing dual resistance near $207.75, consisting of the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level and the high of volume (POC). The stock price has already broken above the 200-day moving average ($202.53), with MACD momentum turning bullish, but the ADX is only at 20.7, indicating weak trend strength.
Key Resistances:
· $207.75: Fibonacci 38.2% + volume high, currently the strongest resistance
· $208.50: The 4-hour close holds steady, signaling an initial breakout from the bulls
· $213.50: The bulls have completely reversed the key moment; a breakout would end the medium-term downtrend structure
· $218.75-$225.00: Upside target after breaking through 213.50
· $236.54: 52-week all-time high
Key supports:
· $202.50-$203.00: Near the 200-day moving average, buy on dips if it holds on pullbacks
· $200.00: Cloud chart bottom; if it falls, bears will have the advantage
· $195.00: Bearish breakdown zone, breakdown opens upside
· $190.00-$182.00: Deeper pullback target
Trading tip: $203-207 is a high-volatility consolidation zone; chasing prices is not recommended. ATR is $5.20 (about 2.5% fluctuation), and is prone to sudden pullbacks in the short term. Only with volume growth and upward attacks can the market continue; otherwise, shrinking volume is prone to repeated fluctuations.
5. Risk Warning
1. Michael Burry's "Circular Financing" Warning: Michael Burry, the prototype for the film "The Big Short," pointed out that Nvidia reportedly has secured about $250 billion in debt for OpenAI's data centers—essentially "stores lending money to customers to buy their own products," creating circular expenditures where sales and guarantees feed each other. Bernstein analysts also agree with this concern.
2. DeepSeek's potential threat to the CUDA ecosystem: DeepSeek's founder Liang Wenfeng pointed out that the new tool may lower the barriers to entry for CUDA, and the Huawei Atlas 950 system is seen as an alternative path.
6. Summary
Nvidia is currently in a key trading range between $200 and $208—$207.75 marks the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears: a breakout with increased volume and a hold above $208.50 could open up space toward $213.50–$225; if it encounters resistance and falls below $200, it could test $195 or even $190.
The core contradiction lies in the tug-of-war between the long-term demand for AI chips (36 out of 37 institutions buying, August 26 earnings expected to double net profit, CPO mass production) and the technical pressure after a 13% pullback from $236 in the short term. Goldman Sachs considers the pullback to be a "healthy consolidation," but Burry's "circular financing" warning and DeepSeek's ecosystem threat cannot be ignored. The August 26 financial report will be a true "big test."
$NVDA Bitcoin was the first to start its rise, so why has Ethereum been slow to move?
Every market run kicks off, with Bitcoin leading the upward momentum and leading the market to recover, but Ethereum remains unmoved, leaving many wondering whether it is gathering momentum or remaining completely weak.
The answer is clear: it's not about building up momentum, but simply because capital simply doesn't favor it. The core growth in the current crypto market all comes from traditional Wall Street, while traditional capital allocation logic is extremely conservative, only recognizing Bitcoin's mature consensus and scarcity attributes.
Although Ethereum has a large ecosystem, its current pain points are very obvious: mainnet fees have sharply decreased, the burn mechanism has failed, inflation has slightly rebounded, and fundamental support is insufficient. Several investment banks have also made it clear that Ethereum currently lacks substantial positive developments, making it difficult to attract long-term institutional investments.
On-site existing funds will only follow the trend and not actively push up Ethereum. Without new inflow, even if the market recovers, Ethereum will only fluctuate in its original state, making it difficult to break out of a rally. #从降息到加息, Fed Divergences Fully Revealed: #财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX Close to Close, Circle Closes #Palantir营收增93%, Gains 13% in After-Hours Breaking news! The Strait Navigation Plan will be officially announced within hours, signaling a short-term shift in the crypto world
Personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice
According to Al Arabiya TV: The arrangement for the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will be officially announced within a few hours or tomorrow. Given the previous sharp plunge in oil prices, it's clear that major funds are betting on this positive news in advance.
In the short term, the reopening of strait navigation will directly pressure crude oil prices, further easing inflationary pressures, cooling expectations for Fed tightening monetary policy, and boosting sentiment for risk assets. BTC and ETH are very likely to see a short-term rebound. But it must be remembered that analysts have previously clearly warned that the temporary shipping agreement between Iran and Oman is extremely unstable, and the Middle East's strategic games are unpredictable. This reconciliation is only a temporary easing, and geopolitical risks have not been completely eliminated.
Fundamentals remain solid. North American mining firm Hut8 holds tens of thousands of BTC locked to withstand unrealized losses and refuses to sell, while on-chain whales continue to withdraw and hoard coins from exchanges, accumulating large amounts of spot chips. This news will only change the short-term consolidation rhythm and cannot break the overall box pattern. Blindly chasing on highs during rebounds is indicated; it is a range-bound arbitrage and not a trend reversal signal.
Geopolitical news is a sign of positive news being realized. Do you think this rebound will lead to a bullish rally where all the good news is exhausted? #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 #Palantir营收增93%，盘后涨13% $BTC $ETH $SNDK 有没有人察觉，如今大饼以太行情彻底分家
细心复盘就能明显发现，大饼和以太的行情已经彻底分家，不再是以前同涨同跌的联动走势，走出了完全独立的两套盘面逻辑。
大饼现在走的是机构储值行情，绑定全球避险资金、通胀对冲需求，不受短期美股波动影响，独立性极强。只要宏观资金偏好稳健资产，大饼就有持续买盘托底。
而以太走的是高风险科技成长行情，深度绑定纳指和美股科技股，AI行情回暖它不一定涨，但美股回调它必然跌。这种高联动、高波动的属性，在当前谨慎的市场环境中完全不吃香。
再加上ETH/BTC比值持续新低，资金持续从以太切换至大饼，二者走势彻底分化。未来很长一段时间，都会是大饼强、以太弱的结构性格局。🔥 Breaking news! The US FCC is planning to draft an injunction to ban the import of new Chinese optical transceiver modules, aiming to implement it within 2026. The draft can still be modified or even shelved.
Zhongji Xuchuang holds a 27% global market share and is deeply tied to the North American AI computing power supply chain; U.S. domestic manufacturers have advantages in optical chips, but the shortfall in complete device capacity is unlikely to be filled.
The Chinese Embassy stated that necessary measures will be taken in response to harm to Chinese interests.
👉 Market Impact:
✅The A-share optical module sector was hit by sentiment, mainly targeting next-generation new high-speed modules, with existing products not yet fully banned;
✅ American optical module targets shifted due to competition orders, but capacity constraints;
✅ If the policy is implemented forcefully, computing power costs in North America will rise, indirectly disrupting global technology risk assets.
$COHR # Micron (MU) Real-Time Market Analysis (August 4, 2026)
1. Real-time Price Overview
As of the close of U.S. stocks on August 4, Micron Technology (MU) was trading at $829.50, up 0.79%. The opening price for the day was $786.36, with an intraday low of $770.10 and a high of $836.62, representing a range of 8.08%.
In after-hours trading, Micron continued to climb to $840.75 (+1.39%); In pre-market trading, it even surged over 4.33% to $864.50.
Market capitalization is approximately $936.8 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.52. Year-to-date, it has risen 190.8%, with a 692% increase over the past year, but has retreated 14.96% in the past month.
2. Market Review: The "Deep V Rebound" from 770 to 865
Today, Micron showed a typical deep V reversal. After the opening, it plunged sharply to $770, then surged over $60 to above $836. An 8% single-day amplitude and a massive volume of 42.6 million shares in trading volume indicate intense bullish and bearish competition. Prices continued to rise after and before the market opened, sustaining bullish momentum.
Looking at the broader cycle, Micron has pulled back about 11% from its July 31 high of $930.88, but still nearly seven times higher than its 52-week low of $105.46. Today's rally is a technical rebound following an oversold price.
3. Market Drivers
1. AI hardware stocks surged collectively before market opening (direct catalyst)
Before the market opened on August 4, US AI hardware stocks surged across the board—Micron Technology rose 4.33%, AMD rose 5.02%, Intel rose 5%, SanDisk rose 5.36%, and Mywell Technology rose 8.88%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index opened up 4%. The memory chip sector was in an overall uprising, with Micron becoming one of the core beneficiaries.
2. DRAM Market Share Approaches SK Hynix (Fundamental Catalyst)
Counterpoint Research released its Q2 2026 Global DRAM Market Report: Samsung reclaimed first place with a 39% revenue share, SK Hynix followed second with 26%, and Micron at 25%. The gap between Micron and SK Hynix is only 1 percentage point. Micron's DRAM revenue has reached five times that of a year ago, and it is expected to overtake SK Hynix as the world's second-largest DRAM supplier.
3. The "supercycle" of memory chips continues
Storage giants such as Kioxia, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron collectively delivered record-high quarterly results. Micron's Q3 revenue (ending May 28) was $41.46 billion, a year-on-year surge of 346%, far exceeding the market expectation of $35.84 billion; net profit was $28.24 billion, up more than 13 times year-on-year. Gross margin reached 84.9%, with company guidance for next quarter revenue of $49-51 billion. Micron also announced that by 2035, it will invest $250 billion in domestic memory chip production and R&D in the United States.
4. Recovery needs after technical overselling
Micron has pulled back nearly 15% in the past month, with its stock price falling below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. On August 4, the intraday low reached $770, which coincided with the low zone of panic selling on July 31, where bottom-fishing funds intensively intervened.
4. Technical Aspects and Key Positions
Current Landscape: Micron found strong support near $770 and then rebounded violently, continuing to rise both after and before the market opened, with strong short-term bullish momentum. However, the stock price remains below the 20-day moving average (around the $880 area), indicating an oversold rebound phase. Whether a trend reversal will occur remains to be seen.
Key Resistances:
· $840-865: After-hours and pre-market highs area, the first short-term resistance
· $880: Near the 20-day moving average; a breakout will open upside potential
· $919-930: The July 31 high area, a key mid-term watershed
· $1,255: 52-week high
Key supports:
· $820-830: Near today's closing price, short-term support zone
· $786-800: Today's opening price range
· $770: Today's low, trend lifeline
· $737: A break below will open up greater downside potential
The analysts' average target price is about $1,400, representing approximately 69% upside from the current price.
5. Summary
Today, Micron staged a deep V-half reversal with an 8% amplitude, surging dramatically from $770 to $865 (after-hours). The DRAM market share approaching SK Hynix (just 1 percentage point away) is the core catalyst for fundamentals, while the pre-market collective surge in AI hardware stocks directly triggered the fuse.
The core contradiction lies in the tug-of-war between the long-term prosperity of the memory chip "supercycle" (Q3 revenue surged 346%, gross margin 85%, $250 billion investment plan) and the short-term confidence recovery after a 15% pullback from $930. If the pre-market momentum continues strongly and effectively breaks through $880 (20-day moving average), a rebound toward $919-930 or even higher is possible; If it encounters resistance and falls below $770, downside risks will significantly amplify.
$MU #从降息到加息, the Fed's disagreements are fully revealed This discussion about XRPL 3.3.0 on X is easily read as "New features have launched." But the more accurate current statement is: rc1 of xrpld 3.3.0 has been released as a signature version, the related amendment has entered the validator voting context, and Batch and Permission Delegation are the focus of the revision process. Previously, they had exposed issues such as unauthorized inner layer transaction execution and the potential abuse of delegation fees, but these features do not necessarily mean they are already active on the mainnet.
For ordinary users, the most valuable thing to collect is not the headline "XRP is taking off," but the three-step verification:
1) Check whether the official Rippled version is Beta, RC, or Final;
2) Check the official amendment page and validator voting status;
3) Confirm whether the mainnet activation conditions are met, then determine whether the wallet or app supports it.
The added value this time is that the development team has brought back previously removed problematic features back into the revision process, showing that the project is progressing really; But there is still a gap between "entering the vote" and "mainnet activation." Before the final release, voting results, and activation records, don't write it as already live, nor treat community popularity as fact.