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Tonight's CPI sets the direction, the "hard asset" rift between Bitcoin and gold, PPI exceeds expectations, and the market's pricing for a Fed rate hike next week has surged above 70%.
The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching the 5% mark, clearly suppressing non-yielding assets, increasing the appeal of cash and government bonds.
The pressure on the two is different. The 90-day correlation coefficient between gold and the 10-year US Treasury yield is -0.41, reacting more directly to rising interest rates. Last night, spot gold once fell more than 1%, reflecting this.
$ETH $BTC $ZEC #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #BTC现货ETF连续流出 #BTC现货ETF连续流出 BTC spot ETF continuous outflow, this is not a good signal.
Funds are retreating, and it is persistent. BTC price dropped 0.43%, market sentiment clearly weakened. ETF outflow means traditional institutional buying is weakening, and may even be taking profits. This contrasts with the previous narrative of "institutions continuously buying."
Why the outflow? Two reasons. First, macro uncertainty is too high—PPI exceeded expectations, CPI is announced tonight, the probability of a rate hike in September approaches 60%, institutions choose to hedge first. Second, Bitcoin has been consolidating above 100,000 USD for too long, lacking new catalysts, some funds have shifted to ETH and other assets.
But don't rush to panic. ETF outflow is a short-term behavior and does not represent a long-term trend reversal. The outflow of Grayscale GBTC has long been digested, and BlackRock IBIT's holdings remain large. The real test is: if BTC breaks key support, will these institutional funds hold firm or stampede?
Continuous outflow is an alarm, not a verdict. $ZEC $ETH $BTC The U.S. SEC is accelerating the approval of Nasdaq Texas's rule amendments, which include three major adjustments: relaxing the original compliance threshold to allow trust assets up to 15%; officially incorporating the definition of "digital commodities"; and opening up the listing and trading of actively managed commodity trusts.
These changes have substantial significance for the crypto industry, as the traditional financial product framework further opens the door to digital commodities. Subsequently, eligible BTC, ETH, and other digital assets are expected to leverage a more flexible commodity trust structure to list on U.S. exchanges, broadening institutional compliance participation channels.
This is not a simple exchange rule tweak; essentially, the U.S. capital market is continuously building a regulatory pathway for digital commodities. In the short term, it can boost market sentiment and bring positive sentiment benefits; however, the real value depends on the subsequent implementation progress, making the medium- to long-term impact more worthy of close attention. $BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC The 50 EMA reclaim might not be as bullish as it looks.
a lot of traders treat a daily close back above the 50 EMA as a bullish signal.
but historical data tells a different story: over the following 60 days, average returns have actually been negative, with the median around -3.7%.
so I’m not taking the reclaim as confirmation by itself. #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121%
The most striking aspect of Oracle this time is not its regular cloud business, but the 121% year-over-year growth in AI cloud revenue. This figure indicates that the demand for AI computing power has not cooled down; companies are genuinely renting cloud services and purchasing computing power, not just making slogans at press conferences.
I believe Oracle is benefiting from a very clear dividend: Nvidia sells chips, Microsoft and Amazon build platforms, while Oracle leverages its cloud infrastructure and databases to serve AI customers who require massive computing power.
However, rapid revenue growth does not necessarily mean the stock price will continue to rise. The market is currently focused on whether orders can be sustained, whether cloud business profit margins can be maintained, and whether AI investments will ultimately convert into long-term customer revenue. If every company is frantically expanding data centers but customers haven't made money yet, valuation pressure will return later.
For the AI sector, this data is good news; for BTC and ETH, the impact is more emotional. Strong AI cloud demand indicates that tech capital expenditure is still ongoing, potentially supporting risk assets, but the crypto space will ultimately depend on the US dollar, interest rates, and capital flows.
The AI story continues, but going forward, we can't just look at "growth percentages"; we also need to see if this revenue can be sustainably realized. Don't bet on a one-sided CPI night! Prepare three scenarios in advance
Overnight core PPI was below 0.3%, with a year-on-year 5.4% hitting the highest since 2026; September rate hike probability rose from 60% to 70%. Tonight, the core CPI month-on-month will determine whether the rate hike pricing pushes to 80% or retreats to 50%.
A｜Core MoM ≤ 0.1%: Rate hike expectations fall back. BTC first targets 78,500–79,000, then follow if it breaks 80,500; ETH 2,525–2,560; SOL 107–110. Pullbacks are allowed, avoid chasing highs.
B｜Core MoM 0.2% (highest probability): Overall CPI high has been previewed by PPI, core not fully heating up, pricing may hold at 70%, with market spikes and retracements. BTC 76,300–79,500; ETH 2,435–2,500; SOL 97–107, easy to stop out, lighter positions than A/C.
C｜Core MoM ≥ 0.3%: Rate hike pricing rushes to 80%–90%. Last night's 7.66 drop was a preview. BTC losing 7.63 looks toward 7.4–7.3; ETH 2,360; SOL losing 97 short-term bulls withdraw. Only if core clearly exceeds 0.3% will there be a sharp drop.
Deleverage before 20:20, don't bet on one side. If you want to enter, wait for prices after A or B materialize. FOMC is next Wednesday; tonight won't set the trend, only decide if we survive until next Wednesday. #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 Many people see PPI is high and immediately assume tonight's CPI will also be high.
First, let's clarify the two.
PPI looks at prices on the enterprise side, which rose 0.4% compared to last month, as expected, not higher. Excluding food and energy, it only rose 0.2%, slightly lower than the market's 0.3% estimate.
The real high figure is the year-over-year data, which reached 5.4%, compounded by rising oil prices.
#PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows $SNDK The Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates or not is leading global capital by the nose. Let me share my understanding. Will the Federal Reserve actually raise interest rates?
The answer is yes, it must.
The Federal Reserve believes that the current US stock market is at a historical high, and raising interest rates to suppress risk assets is completely acceptable; killing off overvalued bubbles may even benefit long-term development.
More urgently, there is high inflation and high yields on US Treasury bonds; raising interest rates is the only effective response.
However, it must be done moderately because the midterm elections are coming, and they cannot offend Trump.
It is highly likely to raise rates by the end of the year; there will be no increase in September. But data will definitely release expectations of a rate hike. BTC dropped to 77,000, with geopolitical black swan events colliding with a massive capital outflow.
The current market is collectively under pressure.
According to OKX market data, $BTC fell back to $77,000, down 1.24% in 24 hours.
$ETH is fluctuating narrowly around $2,465.
$SOL broke below the $100 mark, trading at $99.28.
The strong coin $HYPE pulled back to $79.23, down 4.4% in 24 hours.
$OKB rose against the trend by 1.9% to $113.96.
The total market capitalization fell by 1.17%, with 785 coins down and 409 up; PayFi, AI, and Layer2 led the declines.
Regarding ETFs, risk aversion is severe; yesterday, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $283 million, with the main ARKB dumping $164 million in a single day, while only MSBT had a net inflow of $3.9792 million.
On-chain profit supply has recovered from 47% to 69%, but still hasn't entered the strong zone of 75% - 90%.
Coupled with rising risks in the Mandeb Strait, pushing oil prices above $100, inflation expectations are rising again.
If the Federal Reserve pauses rate hikes, more stable liquidity support is expected only in the fourth quarter.
Don't panic sell during the crash; hold onto BTC and other core leading assets, and wait for the breakthrough market after the macro developments in the fourth quarter.#PPI is higher than expected, tonight's CPI will set the direction $GOOGL has already reached a local low point and is about to take off. Reasons why I am optimistic:
1: Mr. Buffett has increased his holdings in Google for two consecutive quarters, making it the fourth largest position at 9.41% of his entire investment portfolio (long-term), bullish
2. Google is one of the seven major tech giants, with a trailing twelve months P/E ratio of only 16.6, much lower than other tech giants
3. Google's revenue gradually increases with each earnings report; the stock price has been suppressed due to increased capital expenditure on AI
Now is a great opportunity to position yourself, buy on dips, and wait patiently for growth. Whether to raise interest rates or not is no longer a mathematical problem, nor even an economic problem, but a political one.
The inflation rate and interest rates are not simply correlated. Inflation caused by oil prices is driven by supply-side cost increases.
Raising interest rates cannot solve the problem; at most, it can suppress wage increase expectations and prevent rising labor costs, but at the same time, high interest rates increase corporate financing costs.
It can only be said that raising interest rates in the face of inflation is a directionally "correct" move.
Especially during the midterm elections, in response to Trump's statements, the Federal Reserve raising interest rates can demonstrate the Fed's independence and political correctness…刚刚，$LAB 突然往上反弹了很多。 这个情况在今年的八月底也出现过，当时也是突然往上暴涨了很多。 上一次暴涨的结果是下跌了，跌到了现在的位置。 我个人推测，这一次上涨的结果应该也不会例外，大概率还是要跌下去的。 —————————————————— 我们来看一下它的合约数据。 我们可以发现，在八月底的时候，它的合约数据出现过一次和今天非常类似的变化。 在当时，合约持仓量大幅上涨，合约多空比大幅下跌，和今天是一样的。 我们来看一下它的K线图。 我们可以发现，在八月底是有一次和今天非常类似的下跌的。 如果单纯只看合约数据，现在确确实实不太能追进去。 —————————————————— 我个人认为，现在其实可以试着定投这个币。 为什么呢？ 因为作为一个高控盘币，它现在的市值已经是非常低了，后续很有可能会有三倍以上的暴涨。 所以我认为，可以定投。 但是我的意思不是追高，就是用一个时间加权的委托，逐步建仓$LAB ，搏一搏它的反弹。Risks must also be clearly stated. The Fear and Greed Index has already reached 70, placing it in the "Greed" zone. Historically, this level often accompanies a short-term pullback. Moreover, ETF inflows are highly concentrated in BlackRock alone; once IBIT turns to outflows, the entire category could shift to net outflows in a single day. Whether the $80,000 threshold can hold will be clear in the next two weeks. #PPIHotCPINext #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows Bitcoin's resilience exceeded expectations, patiently awaiting CPI to set the short- and mid-term direction
After $ETH sharply dropped yesterday, the market did not continue to decline; funds were absorbed at low levels, and the price gradually recovered. The market's repeated fluctuations are very taxing on sentiment. It is currently not suitable to subjectively predict the direction; tonight's CPI is the key anchor for the short- and mid-term market. Patiently waiting for the data release is the optimal choice.
There is a very critical risk point during the data release period: at the moment CPI is published, market makers may choose to temporarily withdraw orders, causing a liquidity vacuum in the order book, thinning its depth. This can easily lead to irregular spikes up and down, mixing false and true breakouts, which can easily trigger short-term stop losses. Therefore, during this phase, it is advisable to appropriately widen stop losses to avoid false stops caused by liquidity exhaustion.
The core market contention now lies in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike. If the CPI data is hot and a September rate hike is confirmed, pressure on ETH will further increase, with the $2100 level becoming a key test target. Conversely, if inflation readings cool and rate hike expectations decline, Bitcoin will have a chance to continue this round of recovery. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 The US August CPI (Consumer Price Index) data will be released at 20:30.
This data includes key indicators such as the unadjusted annual CPI rate and core CPI, which have a significant impact on recent market trends.
This will be the "roulette" that determines the fate of risk assets in the near term.
Tonight's market focus is on the core CPI month-over-month data (market expectation is 0.2%).
① If the core CPI month-over-month reaches or exceeds 0.3%, or if overall inflation data rebounds, the market will strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates or even raise them. A high interest rate environment will push up the US dollar and US Treasury yields, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like BTC, leading to capital outflows from risk assets, usually triggering short-selling sentiment and putting downward pressure on BTC prices. If key support levels are broken, it may trigger a larger liquidity crisis and long liquidations.
② If the core CPI month-over-month is below 0.2% (e.g., 0.18%), it indicates cooling inflation and a rapid decline in rate hike expectations. Expectations for liquidity easing will rise, risk appetite will increase, benefiting risk assets like BTC, usually triggering long-buying sentiment, and BTC prices are expected to rebound, testing resistance levels above (such as the $80,000-$82,000 range).
③ If CPI meets expectations, the data basically aligns with market expectations, and the Federal Reserve's policy path remains unchanged, lacking new catalysts. Market reaction may be relatively muted, and BTC is likely to maintain range-bound oscillation $BTC Brothers, why short altcoins? Why not short $BTC or $ETH? The overall market trend is so clear, the downtrend is already obvious. The whole market was pumped in August, and September is destined to start falling. Anyway, I've already gone short.
Look at this market: BTC is now around 77,021, down 1.5% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of $29.79 billion, and market cap holding above $1.55 trillion. But the long-short ratio has shifted to 38% longs versus 62% shorts, shorts are starting to dominate.
Why the drop? Three heavy macro blows hit simultaneously.
US August PPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, far exceeding the market expectation of 4.8%. Core PPI rose 4.7% over the past 12 months. The US-Iran military conflict continues to escalate, Brent crude oil broke through $100 per barrel. The 30-year US Treasury yield climbed to 5.353%, the highest in 19 years. CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September has surged to about 70%.
For Bitcoin, which generates no cash flow, when the risk-free rate exceeds 5%, the opportunity cost of holding it rises sharply, and funds accelerate into yield-bearing assets. This is not an internal crypto market issue, but a systemic tightening of the macro environment.
Liquidation data is even more direct—long positions are being slaughtered.
In the past 24 hours, $446 million worth of liquidations occurred across the network, with $352 million in long liquidations and only $93.93 million in short liquidations. Bitcoin long liquidations were $111 million, short liquidations only $9.37 million. The long-to-short liquidation ratio is nearly 12:1. The market was already heavily biased toward longs, and once the PPI came out, leveraged longs were wiped out. In the last 24 hours, 93,727 people were liquidated.
Technically, the market has fully turned bearish.
BTC has dropped from the high near 81,500 and is now sitting at the critical support range of 76,000-77,000. RSI has dropped to 31.97, close to oversold, but oversold does not mean bottomed. Once 76,000 breaks, the space below opens directly to 74,000-75,000, with more critical support near 72,000. Resistance above is at 79,200; only a close above that can reverse the downtrend.
My short at 77,020.9 is already in, full position 3x leverage, liquidation price at 1,383,022, far away, can hold. After a month of gains in August, September is time to pay the debt. Either it takes us down in one wave or we bottom out and admit defeat. Wait for my good news, brothers!! 🚀
$ZEC
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 ECB Governing Council member Mahlouf issued a risk warning that if the Iran-related conflict lasts too long, it will cause inflation to remain high. The Eurozone is highly dependent on imported energy, and the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East will continue to disrupt crude oil and refined oil supplies, pushing up energy costs and bringing imported inflationary pressure.
The longer the conflict drags on, the longer energy prices will stay high, and costs will gradually transmit to food, transportation, services, and other sectors, forming a second round of price increases. Even if the conflict ends, repairing energy infrastructure and restoring supply chains will take time, so inflationary pressure will not immediately subside.
This also puts the ECB in a dilemma: on one hand, it needs to fight stubborn inflation and has the necessity to continue raising interest rates; on the other hand, aggressive rate hikes will suppress the already weak Eurozone economic growth. If geopolitical risks continue to ferment, the ECB will find it difficult to quickly shift to an easing policy.
Looking globally, the ongoing Middle East conflict will simultaneously disrupt inflation expectations in Europe and the US. Sustained high oil prices will reinforce the market's pricing of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, pushing up US Treasury yields.#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Brothers, if we look at the news from last month and this month together, I think the current crypto market is indeed harder to navigate than last month.
Last month, the market mainly revolved around relatively mild inflation and policy expectation games. After the pullback, funds were willing to step in, so BTC and ETH showed relatively strong overall recovery ability.
But this month is clearly different. PPI is hotter, and combined with oil prices, US Treasury yields, and other factors, the market has started to worry about inflationary pressure again. In other words, the macro environment this month is more complex than last month, and the market won't easily recover all the way.
Now $BTC and $ETH have pulled back from lows, indicating there is indeed buying interest below, but I tend to interpret this as a repair and game before major data, and we can't just assume a trend reversal because of the rebound.
📈 CPI below expectations: inflation concerns ease, BTC and ETH recovery may continue to expand.
📉 CPI above expectations: high inflation pressure continues, risk assets may come under pressure again.
So my personal honest view is: before the news comes out, the market will most likely maintain a choppy recovery, but we can't blindly be bullish like last month. There is buying interest now, but macro pressure remains, and the real direction still needs to be confirmed after tonight's data release.822 empty, finally got a bit of blood back.
$ZEC current price 1105.
Smashed down from 1299.
A few days ago when it surged,
I didn't even dare to open my phone.
Floating loss of over 400 dollars,
hanging on the screen, glaring.
Grayscale's 500 million ETF,
It was revealed that 100 million was taken by DCG insiders.
Whale's 3848 long positions,
4.33 million U exploded cleanly last night.
PPI exploded, oil price broke 105,
all smashing the market.
Today it dropped to 1053,
bounced back to 1105.
Floating loss shrank from 400 to 280.
No cutting losses, no adding.
Just waiting for it to keep going down. Empty promises, and it has to be Trump.
He says that as long as the Republicans win the midterm elections,
he will give every American $5,000.
$5,000 per person, totaling $1.2 trillion.
Such a huge amount of money, and with just a mouth, it's all just bluffing.
Where will the money come from? Tariffs?
Don't be ridiculous, the money from tariffs can't even fill this hole.
In the end, it will only be raising taxes or continuing to borrow money.
Trump himself can't possibly come up with $1.2 trillion.
America is really rich, now even giving out money relies on borrowing.
And it's timed right at the midterm elections.
You could say it's welfare,
or you could say it's buying votes.
The US government is getting more and more used to one thing: economy not doing well? Give out money.
Market lacks liquidity? Borrow money. Too much debt? Keep borrowing.
It's quite smooth, just pushing the immediate problem forward.
After Biden gave out money that time, Bitcoin purchases did see a noticeable increase.
So if this money really gets distributed this time, will some of it flow into BTC again? I think it's possible.
Giving out money isn't necessarily good news,
throwing in $1.2 trillion, if consumption picks up, inflation might rise too.
If inflation rises, the Federal Reserve might not dare to cut interest rates.
Then BTC might get hit first.
So giving out money doesn't mean BTC will definitely rise.
The key is how this money finally enters the market.
Does it go into supermarkets? The stock market? Gold?
Or does it eventually flow into Bitcoin?
Do you think Trump can really give out this $5,000? Account Position Divergence Radar
No matter how many accounts are on the same side, you still need to see how much the top positions are actually pressing.
$DOGE shows a bullish reading for both the overall and top accounts, but the top position size is actually bearish, with the two metrics still conflicting. The decline accompanied by a drop in OI mainly reflects old positions exiting rather than new positions continuing to push prices down. Going forward, stop counting accounts and directly monitor whether the top position weight is repairing toward the bullish side.
$SUI has different accounts on opposite sides; for now, treat this as divergence without amplifying any particular proportion. The decline has not led to position expansion; first, watch when the risk exposure contraction slows. Before the divergence closes, wait for the equivalent positions to show a clear response.
$PEPE accounts uniformly lean bullish, but the top position ratio remains below 1, meaning the numerical advantage has not translated into a top position advantage. Price and positions are both declining, making the position retreat more certain than directional attribution. There are already enough bullish accounts; what will truly narrow the divergence is the top position ratio returning above 1. ECB's Mahlouf: Large rate hikes could harm eurozone economic growth
ECB Governing Council member Mahlouf expressed the view, warning that further large rate hikes could damage eurozone economic growth. Currently, eurozone inflation is rising again due to energy price disturbances, with inflation rebounding to 3.3% in August, but the economic recovery itself remains fragile. The ECB is caught in a dilemma between fighting inflation and supporting growth.
Mahlouf's statement represents one faction within the ECB: although inflation has not yet fallen to the 2% target and further tightening is necessary, aggressive large rate hikes should be avoided. If rate increases are too steep, they will raise corporate financing costs and suppress consumer spending, putting significant pressure on the already weak eurozone economy and even increasing recession risks.
Current eurozone inflation is largely driven by supply-side pressures from energy supply shocks related to Middle East geopolitics, not by overheated demand. Continued aggressive rate hikes are unlikely to quickly resolve energy-driven inflation and will instead excessively suppress the real economy.
At the macro level, ECB policy choices will affect the euro-to-dollar exchange rate and European bond market performance. If the ECB slows the pace of rate hikes, it will indirectly impact global liquidity conditions. Compared to the Federal Reserve, divergence in monetary policy pace between the two sides will disrupt global cross-border capital flows.#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Don't rush to take SNDK's "still stable" status as a signal of a recovery in risk appetite; it's more like a localized test that hasn't spread out. If you haven't even gained a small position, is this wave just the market giving you an opportunity, or just luck for a few? Watching this segment of the market gives me a rather subtle feeling. SNDK isn't bad, but not big enough to be reassuring; On the other hand, SKHYNIX, relying on SanDisk and Hynix, has already generated profits in the tens of millions on paper. The problem lies here—the profit-making effect hasn't spread and is stuck in a very narrow corner. This month's account curve has fluctuated back and forth, trying to grab a trend position, but never finding a clean opportunity, so I simply watched a few excellent traders do it—whoever is lucky will be the first to emerge. In crypto, this situation translates as: risk appetite hasn't risen overall, just briefly emerging in individual narratives. If BTC and ETH don't provide direction in parallel, altcoins will struggle to upgrade from "individual probing" to "sector resonance." SNDK's stability means some people are willing to buy; But no volume and spread means more people are still waiting for confirmation. Under the lens of capital preference, this isn't a full-scale attack but a small team scouting first. There are also bullish paths: once the profit effects of Hynix are seen by more people, storage, hashrate, and AI narratives may be re-traded, and ETH and some high-beta altcoins will gain an emotional premium. But the risk is that this narrow profit effect is most likely to be mistaken for a comprehensive recovery, resulting in BTC shaking and copycats$MET hits a new high again at 0.257. Altcoins are rising one after another.
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Risks must also be clearly stated. The Fear and Greed Index has already reached 70, placing it in the "Greed" zone. Historically, this level often accompanies a short-term pullback. Moreover, ETF inflows are highly concentrated in BlackRock alone; once IBIT turns to outflows, the entire category could shift to net outflows in a single day. Whether the $80,000 threshold can hold will be clear in the next two weeks.
Finally, a heartfelt word: Bitcoin has never risen on sentiment alone. Every real market cycle is driven by the triple resonance of interest rate cycles, capital flows, and market structure. The quality of this rebound is higher than many think. But whether it turns from a rebound into a reversal ultimately depends on the macro environment and regulatory implementation. Position management is always the top priority—don’t get carried away. $BTC $ZEC $ETH #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% #BTC现货ETF连续流出 Everyone should be watching tonight's CPI data. This time, it's not just about whether there will be a rate hike in September; $BTC, $XAU, $XAG, and crude oil will most likely have to choose a new direction.
The key point is whether inflation will rebound.
Previously, PPI was already strong, and rising energy prices have added new pressure to inflation.
Market expectations for a September rate hike have clearly heated up, with#OutcomesOnOrbit #OracleAICloudUp121% #BTCSpotETFOutflows The probability of the CLARITY Act passing has dropped from 82% to 17%!
In February this year, prediction markets gave the CLARITY Act an 82% chance of passing. Now Kalshi gives 17%, Polymarket about 20%, and Galaxy Digital directly gives 10%.
How did the expectations disappear? Looking at the money is more direct: the monthly net inflow of the US spot $XRP ETF was $132 million in May, $59.46 million in June, and only $27.29 million in July—a 79% drop.
The bill itself is also stuck. On September 15, the Senate will hold a procedural vote requiring 60 votes; the Republicans have only 53 seats, needing 7 Democrats to defect, but the plan hasn't come together.
Today $XRP fell 3.63%, currently priced at 1.3427, having broken below the MA20 (1.405), with the 20-day low of 1.31 just below. It has dropped 66.8% from the July 2025 high of 3.65.
Judgment: XRP's legal shield is a district court ruling, not statutory law. If the bill doesn't pass, this shield can be challenged again at any time. September 15 is the first critical point.The Russian Central Bank stated: In recent months, domestic prices have been significantly affected by highly volatile factors such as motor vehicle fuel.
Due to attacks on refining facilities, domestic gasoline and diesel prices in Russia have surged sharply, directly pushing up the CPI and, through logistics costs, transmitting to various goods, raising inflation expectations.
The Central Bank considers this a temporary supply-side shock, with core inflation still controllable, thus maintaining a moderate rate cut, but sustained high fuel prices will limit the room for rate cuts. #红海风险扩大，百美元油价再现 The Central Bank of Russia pointed out that in recent months, domestic price trends have been significantly affected by highly volatile factors such as motor vehicle fuel. Against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, domestic refining facilities have been attacked, causing disruptions in fuel supply, with noticeable increases in gasoline and diesel prices, directly pushing up domestic inflation readings.
Fuel price increases have a dual transmission effect. On one hand, they directly raise residents' travel costs; on the other hand, through logistics and transportation costs, they indirectly transmit to the prices of a large number of goods and services such as food and industrial products, boosting inflation expectations across society and creating a secondary inflation effect. The central bank judges that the fuel-driven impact is a supply-side shock, not caused by overheating domestic demand, and core inflation remains overall within a controllable range.
Disturbed by fuel price increases, the Central Bank of Russia has raised its full-year inflation forecast while tightening the pace of interest rate cuts. Although it still maintains rate cut operations, the easing space has narrowed, and it is necessary to observe whether the fuel market can stabilize to prevent cost pressures from spreading to more categories of prices.
Looking globally, domestic fuel volatility in Russia is interconnected with international crude oil and refined oil markets. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to disrupt energy supply, which will keep affecting global refined oil prices, indirectly influencing inflation expectations in Europe and the US, impacting US Treasury yields, and thereby affecting risk appetite in the crypto market. Going forward, key focus will be on tracking damage to Russian refining facilities, domestic fuel price trends, and the linked changes in international crude oil and diesel. #红海风险扩大，百美元油价再现 Oracle's AI cloud revenue surged 121%, but the biggest highlight of this earnings report is not just growth, it's the orders.
This quarter, cloud infrastructure revenue reached $7.4 billion, up 121% year-over-year; total cloud revenue was $11.6 billion, up 62% year-over-year. Even more impressive, new AI cloud contracts exceeded $30 billion, with remaining performance obligations reaching $664 billion.
This indicates that demand for AI computing power remains strong, and Oracle is accelerating its transformation from a traditional database company to an AI cloud infrastructure company.
Of course, the risks are also clear. The faster AI cloud grows, the greater the investment in data centers and computing power, and the massive capital expenditures will test cash flow.
So the focus going forward is on three things: whether cloud revenue can continue to grow rapidly, whether the $664 billion in orders can be continuously fulfilled, and whether the huge investments can ultimately convert into cash flow.
The 121% growth is just the surface; what really matters is whether Oracle can turn AI orders into long-term profits. $SOL fell below 100, and market sentiment has clearly cooled down.
But the funding situation is not that pessimistic; recently, there is still capital inflow into the SOL spot ETF, and institutional funds have not significantly withdrawn.
Tonight's US CPI is another variable; yesterday's PPI year-on-year has already risen to 5.4%. If the CPI continues to exceed expectations, short-term pressure on SOL may persist; if inflation does not further heat up, market sentiment might ease a bit.
Prices are falling, but funds have not completely exited, and this divergence is worth continued observation.Tonight's ultimate CPI forecast! The most authentic market logic across the entire network!
Attention everyone! The ultimate test deciding the short-term bull or bear market this round officially lands tonight!
The repeated fluctuations and spikes in the past few days were all early fund maneuvers and sentiment warming up, while the real anchor is the US August CPI data, which will directly determine the short-term fate of the crypto market tonight 🔥
My forecast: The core CPI tonight is very likely to be strong, inflation stickiness still exists, the probability of a dollar bearish impact is low, and the market will continue to price in rate hike risks.
Strong reasons:
1. Yesterday's PPI has already rebounded, oil prices continue to surge, upstream cost pressures have transmitted to the consumer side, laying upward pressure on CPI.
2. Market consensus expects core CPI month-over-month at 0.2%, but inflation risks from rising energy prices may bring unexpected upward risks.
3. The Fed is currently closely watching core inflation; as long as core data does not cool down, expectations for a September rate hike will be hard to completely fade.
Simply put:
Persistent inflation → rate hike expectations hard to cool → high US Treasury yields → crypto market liquidity under pressure!
Coin-specific impacts
$BTC: The market's ballast stone, bullish for resistance, bearish but still most resistant, a barometer for market strength.
$ETH: More elastic than BTC, will have more advantage under easing expectations; but if inflation exceeds expectations, the correction will also be greater than BTC.
$SOL: The hardest hit by leverage, extremely explosive when bullish, but the most severe stampede when bearish, volatility will be maximized!
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 Trump's Statement on His First Day in Office: OECD Global Tax Reform Agreement Has No Effect in the U.S.
On his first day in office, Trump clearly stated that the OECD global tax reform agreement reached during the Biden administration has no legal effect in the United States. This agreement, known as the global 15% minimum corporate tax "two-pillar" plan, was originally promoted by the Biden administration and involved nearly 140 countries in negotiations. Its purpose is to curb the erosion of the tax base by multinational corporations and to prevent a race to the bottom in tax cuts among countries.
The core position of the Trump administration: diplomatic commitments do not equate to domestic law. For the agreement to be implemented, it must be legislated by the U.S. Congress; the executive branch has no authority to unilaterally enforce this international agreement. The U.S. will abandon this set of rules under the OECD framework and instead continue to use its existing tax system, no longer cooperating with the global unified minimum tax enforcement standards.
This move will cause a split in global tax governance. The European Union and some developed countries have already implemented the global minimum tax rules, but the U.S. will not follow suit. This will expand the tax planning space for multinational corporations again, significantly increasing the difficulty of international tax coordination. Future trade and tariff confrontations cannot be ruled out.
At the macro level, the U.S. withdrawal from global tax reform will increase fiscal deficit pressure, exacerbate U.S. debt supply pressure, indirectly push up U.S. Treasury yields, and cause disturbances to global risk assets.
Transmission to the crypto market: fragmentation of global tax rules will affect the compliance costs of multinational institutions and crypto enterprises. On one hand, the tax uncertainty for some overseas crypto institutions will rise #OKX预言家：来星球玩预测 CPI will be announced tonight. There are currently a few unfavorable signals in the market, but there's no need to panic too much, after all, Bitcoin and Ethereum have bounced back again today.
Brent crude oil has broken through $100, reaching a high of 101.76. If the Middle East situation continues to escalate, inflationary pressure will be difficult to ease quickly.
US Treasury bonds are also uncomfortable; the 10-year yield surged to 4.86%, and the 30-year yield once hit 5.30%. Even a $6 billion buyback couldn't stabilize the bond market.
The US stock market has fallen for three consecutive days, but funds haven't completely fled. AI and semiconductors remain strong. SK Hynix even hit a new high since its US listing, and SanDisk is slowly recovering, indicating that funds are managing risk rather than fully withdrawing.
Looking at $BTC, it’s consolidating around 78,000, with resistance still at 80,000–82,000. Below, watch 75,233 first. ETFs have had continuous outflows, and volume hasn't significantly increased, so the bulls are indeed starting to pull back.
Therefore, I won’t make any early guesses tonight. If core CPI month-over-month is ≥0.3%, BTC might directly test support around 75,000–76,000.
$ETH is the same; it has been very strong this round, rebounding quickly. If the news is good, it feels like this wave can reach 2600 without issue. Ethereum is definitely the brightest star in this bull market!
My approach remains the same: no new positions before the data is released, and after the announcement, let the market digest it for an hour. Better to miss some gains than to risk principal betting on a number. 29,000 $BTC options settle today, with a notional value of $2.24 billion and a max pain point at 78,000. This figure is below the current price, indicating that market makers' hedging bias is bearish.
The Put Call Ratio is only 0.6, with clearly more call contracts. But the max pain point is below the current price, meaning the closer the price gets to 78,000, the less the sellers pay out. A more likely explanation is that after rising to 80,000, more people bought calls, and sellers suppressed the upside during hedging.
What really deserves attention is not the settlement itself, but the slight rise in monthly IV during the three weeks of sideways movement. Sideways movement with rising IV usually indicates someone is paying premiums in advance for a directional breakout, rather than simply collecting rent.
If next week IV continues to rise while the price remains stuck near 80,000, then this round of buying looks more like hedging than betting. This chain currently lacks one piece of evidence: who is buying.
#BTC现货ETF连续流出
#伊朗允许BTC与USDT外贸结算 #加密财库分化：买币还是回购？ $BTC The commander of the United States Central Command visited Saudi Arabia on Thursday to conduct an urgent regional security coordination meeting. The situation in Yemen has remained tense recently, with the Houthi forces continuously advancing and approaching the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical shipping route. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly called on the U.S. to intervene militarily, but the U.S. has clearly stated it will not directly attack the Houthis militarily, only providing intelligence and other non-kinetic support.
The core purpose of this visit is to discuss the security of shipping in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait with Saudi Arabia, coordinate regional defense, and prevent further spillover of the conflict. Currently, the two major energy corridors in the Middle East are under simultaneous pressure, with both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Strait facing risks of shipping disruptions. If these routes are blocked, it will directly impact global crude oil supply expectations and disturb oil price trends.
The market needs to closely watch the subsequent developments: if both sides reach a conflict control agreement, the geopolitical risk premium will decline, and oil prices will have room to adjust downward; if the situation continues to deteriorate, energy supply risks will rise again, pushing inflation expectations higher and forcing the market to reprice the probability of Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Transmitted to the crypto market, Middle East geopolitics is an important external variable. A rebound in oil prices will raise inflation concerns, push up U.S. Treasury yields, and suppress risk assets like BTC; conversely, if the situation eases and oil prices fall, it will relieve macro-level pressures. Continued tracking of the U.S.-Saudi talks, Red Sea shipping conditions, crude oil and diesel price fluctuations, and next week's Federal Reserve meeting is essential. #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #红海风险扩大，百美元油价再现 Kiev Attacked: Russian Forces Strike City Gas Stations, Russia-Ukraine Conflict Continues to Disrupt Energy Expectations
Kiev Mayor Klitschko reported that Russian forces attacked multiple gas stations in the Dnipro and Obolon districts of Kiev, resulting in 2 deaths and 8 injuries. The Russian side has not yet responded.
The target of this attack was the city's civilian fuel infrastructure, highlighting once again the ongoing energy disruption risks caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Although this attack targeted gas stations within Ukraine rather than directly hitting major crude oil production areas, the market will reprice the tail risk of conflict escalation. Currently, global refined oil products are already in tight supply, with diesel prices remaining high, and geopolitical events easily trigger short-term oil price sentiment fluctuations.
At the macro level, repeated geopolitical tensions will continue to disturb market assessments of energy inflation. If the conflict further spreads, there is a possibility of pushing crude oil and refined product prices higher again, which would raise market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, suppress U.S. Treasury yields, and put pressure on risk assets.
From the perspective of the crypto market, the recurring Russia-Ukraine situation will amplify market risk aversion sentiment. If oil prices rebound again and inflation concerns return, it will increase redemption pressure on BTC spot ETFs and suppress the crypto market. However, it is important to distinguish that a single localized attack is unlikely to change the overall trend and will mostly cause short-term volatility. The key focus going forward is whether the conflict further spills over, whether crude oil and diesel prices show abnormal movements, and the outcomes of tonight's CPI and next week's Federal Reserve meeting. #OKX百万规划师 #红海风险扩大，百美元油价再现 Bitcoin ETFs have been draining funds for three consecutive days
Adding up to nearly $450 million
Ethereum ETFs also saw a net outflow of about $29.76 million yesterday
Licensed coins are sold off first by institutions
Like hanging a suit back in the closet
People are already preparing to exit, while Dogecoin is still jumping on the spot market in Europe and the US
Without that thick and respectable ETF pipe
So is it more attractive this time?
On paper, it doesn't look like it
It fell from around 0.10 to about 0.084
PPI came out and continued to push it down
It wasn't sold off by institutions redeeming shares
It was also dragged down by overall market sentiment
No license doesn't mean a safe haven
It just means there's no high-speed highway for institutional inflows and outflows. The contrast is very clear
$BTC and $ETH are licensed assets
Money can flow in and out from pension accounts
When it flows out, the numbers look good but are also scary
DOGE is a retail night market
The pipe is thin
The market is fragmented
Rises rely on loud voices
Falls rely on quick legs
Institutions are selling licensed coins
Retail investors may not necessarily treat unlicensed coins as substitutes
Substitutes need independent buyers
What we see now looks more like a joint sell-off
ETFs are draining compliance warehouses
Europe and the US are draining sentiment warehouses
Two pipes leaking at the same time
Dogecoin won't suddenly become attractive just because it didn't enter that big pipe
It just got splashed with cold water in another place. The premise of being more attractive is that someone is willing to buy the spot
Not because the other side is redeeming IBIT
You don't automatically become a safe snack on your sideThe most important signal of today - for the first time since August 19, BTC has entered a sustained downtrend on the 12-hour timeframe. Basic targets: $75,909, $74,439, $72,970. Potential breakdown level - $79,583. HOWEVER, the potential low marks on this same timeframe have not disappeared, and there are already three of them. Therefore, for now, we continue to expect a rebound, the probability of which was suggested yesterday. And then - the plan is to add to the short position if there are no new signals for a rebound or reversal. The price in the current decline has almost reached the "neckline" at p兄弟们，美债这事越来越有意思了。 9月10日，美国财政部把长债回购规模从常规20亿直接提到上限60亿，三倍力度。结果呢？当天实际只回购了51.9亿，连60亿上限都没买满。10年期美债收益率当天反而涨了，一路干到4.94%，盘中触及4.965%，创2023年10月以来最高收盘水平。30年期收益率跳升至5.37%，刷新2007年以来纪录。2年期飙升16个基点至4.59%，2025年4月以来最大单日涨幅。周五亚盘，10年期进一步突破4.97%。 回购加码，收益率不降反升——市场在用脚投票。 Bryn Mawr Trust固定收益主管Jim Barnes说得直白：财政部试图主动降低长端收益率反而令投资者不安，这表明美债市场的压力可能比投资者预想的更严重。贝森特本人辩称国债市场“状态极佳”，把焦虑形容为“无意义的噪音”——但市场不买账。 为什么回购治不了这个病？三个底层结构问题。 第一，回购规模跟债务体量完全不成比例。 60亿的回购，面对的是40万亿美元的国债存量、5.5万亿的20-30年期长债、每周数百亿的新发债规模。南方基金司南投顾的评论一针见血：这不过是“杯水车薪”，反而坐实了长端流动性恶#PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI sets the direction PPI did not cool the market, tonight's CPI is the real directional choice
US August PPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 5.4% year-on-year, inflation pressure remains stubborn; more notably, the indicator excluding food, energy, and trade services also rose 0.3% month-on-month.
The market reaction has been very direct: US Treasury yields rose, the dollar strengthened, and the Fed's September rate hike expectations rose to about 70%.
But PPI has not completely determined the direction, because tonight's 8:30 CPI release is the key. The market currently expects overall CPI to rise about +0.4% month-on-month and about +3.4% year-on-year, with core CPI up about +0.2% month-on-month.
For BTC, the real risk is core CPI again exceeding expectations. That would reinforce the trading logic of "high rates maintained longer or even further hikes," putting secondary pressure on crypto asset valuations.
Conversely, if core inflation is below expectations, the hawkish positions built on PPI might quickly reverse.
So tonight is not simply a bet on CPI being high or low, but a bet on the market's repricing of the next Fed decision.
BTC is now holding around 77,000, the real big volatility may not have started yet. 【CPI Meets Expectations, BTC and ETH Rebound in Sync—A "Boot Drop" Style Sigh of Relief】
Today's CPI released: year-on-year 3.4%, core 2.4%, exactly as expected, a neutral result, neither a surprise nor bearish. The movements of BTC and ETH almost simultaneously confirm this: $BTC dropped first to 76,410 yesterday, $ETH dipped deeply to 2,404.03, then both rebounded together, now back around 77,063 and 2,466 respectively.
This is a typical **"bearish exhaustion" style rebound**—the market had already priced in the concern that "CPI might continue the PPI heat" in the prior decline. When the data actually landed and turned out not so bad, the overly pessimistic sentiment naturally retreated somewhat. The MACD red bars on the two K-lines are both turning green, indicating this is not an isolated rally of a single coin but the whole market breathing a sigh of relief over this "no surprises" data.
But don't rush to interpret this as a trend reversal. Core CPI did not exceed expectations, giving the Fed more room to hold steady, but the overall inflation reading pushed by oil prices remains, and the option of rate hikes is not completely ruled out. The "hawkish PPI, neutral CPI" combination means the final answer awaits the FOMC announcement on September 15-16. For now, this rebound looks more like a breather window for the bulls, not a signal that pressure has been lifted.
DYOR, this is not investment advice.
#PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #BTC现货ETF连续流出 WTI crude oil falls below $99, plunging 3.40% intraday
WTI crude oil futures sharply retreated intraday, falling below the $99 mark, with a single-day drop of 3.40%. The war premium caused by geopolitical tensions has clearly been unwound. Previously, due to disturbances in the Middle East situation, oil prices once surged above $100, as the market worried about energy supply disruptions, pushing up inflation expectations and driving U.S. Treasury yields higher.
This round of decline mainly comes from a temporary easing of geopolitical tensions, with the market repricing the risks of shipping disruptions in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. Traders began to sell long crude oil positions. The rapid fall in oil prices will directly ease market concerns about energy-driven inflation, providing room to cool down expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Macroeconomic transmission logic: Falling oil prices marginally reduce imported inflation pressure, which will lower the market's inflation risk premium and help alleviate upward pressure on long-term U.S. Treasury yields. However, it should be noted that oil prices are highly volatile intraday; a short-term decline does not mean inflation risks are completely eliminated. Prices of refined products like diesel remain high, and the stickiness of inflation still needs to be observed.#红海风险扩大，百美元油价再现 Bezos spent about $346 million in August, and AMZN has retraced 12% from its peak.
Just saw that chart from Barchart: the red arrow is exactly pinned at the August 3rd top, then it stepped down all the way.
The current price is around 252, a bit softer after hours, roughly giving back a chunk from the previous high.
The market dropped again last night, semiconductors clearly dragging, and no one dares to chase cloud stocks aggressively now.
CPI is coming tonight, so short-term volatility will only increase.
I think this looks more like "insiders running first, sentiment following," not a ready-made bottom signal.
What to do: stay light before CPI; the invalidation condition is simple—CPI clearly cools down, and AMZN rallies with volume back above the previous selling high zone, then we can talk about a reversal.
Before CPI, are you lightly waiting for the data, or have you already treated AMZN as a discounted buy?
$AMZN $SPY $QQQ #PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI will set the direction #财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% 🔥 Tonight at 20:30, US August CPI!
This could be the real "make-or-break" moment of the week.
Yesterday's PPI already gave an uncomfortable signal:
Inflation hasn't completely come down.
Plus, oil prices have climbed back above $100,
energy prices are once again transmitting through the entire economy.
My judgment:
📌 CPI most likely around 3.4%
📌 Core CPI most likely around 0.2%
📌 But there is a risk the data could exceed expectations upward.
If core CPI = 0.2%
The market might briefly breathe a sigh of relief,
the dollar and yields would fall,
BTC, ETH, and US stocks would rebound.
But if core CPI = 0.3%
Then it’s a completely different story.
🔥 Inflation heats up again
🔥 Fed's September rate hike expectations rise further
🔥 US Treasury yields could hit 5%
🔥 BTC and US stocks face short-term pressure
It’s even possible to see:
"Data release → BTC spikes instantly → then reverses"
So tonight I won’t blindly chase the first wave.
My baseline scenario:
👉 CPI meets expectations
👉 Market first breathes a sigh of relief
👉 BTC surges short-term
👉 Then funds reprice the "Fed rate hike"
👉 Intense volatility at the highs
What really needs caution is core CPI at 0.3%.
If that number appears tonight,
then the logic of this market cycle may need to be repriced.
See the real outcome tonight at 20:30. 🌙
#BTC #ETH #CPI #Fed #RateHike #Gold #USStocksOil breaks $6, dominating US Treasury pricing more than CPI
From the current market perspective, US CPI data has become a secondary factor for the long-term US Treasury trend. The market expects August CPI to rise 3.4% year-on-year; even if the reading is below expectations, as a lagging indicator, it is difficult to reverse bond traders' pessimistic outlook.
The real driver of market dynamics is diesel prices, with US diesel prices breaking $6 per gallon for the first time in history. Diesel, as a core fuel for logistics and industry, price increases will transmit through the supply chain to the entire industry chain, continuously exerting upward inflationary pressure and becoming the key variable for the market's assessment of the Fed's policy next week.
Interest rate futures show about a two-thirds probability of a Fed rate hike on September 16. There is a key risk here: if the Fed chooses to keep rates unchanged, the market will interpret this as the Fed struggling to suppress inflation, and traders will demand a higher inflation risk premium to hold long-term bonds, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to challenge the 5% threshold. As long as oil prices do not significantly fall, the probability of this scenario will further increase.
Macro transmission to crypto markets: US Treasury yields approaching 5% will raise the risk-free rate, suppressing valuations of BTC and altcoins. Even if CPI misses expectations, as long as energy inflation continues, rate hike expectations will be hard to cool down, and ETF redemption pressure may persist. Only a significant drop in oil prices will ease the upward pressure on long-term Treasuries and provide a breathing window for risk assets. $BTC #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向 #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向
U.S. inflationary pressures are heating up again, and the market's full attention has shifted to tonight's CPI. Before the data release, the crypto market, U.S. stocks, and bond markets are likely to remain highly volatile.
1️⃣ U.S. August PPI rose 5.4% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations, with energy and commodity prices continuing to push up corporate production costs.
2️⃣ Core PPI increased 0.2% month-over-month, slightly below expectations, indicating that underlying inflation has not yet fully spiraled out of control, but whether companies will ultimately pass these costs on to consumers remains to be seen.
3️⃣ After the data release, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened simultaneously, with the market further pricing in a September rate hike, putting short-term pressure on risk assets.
4️⃣ The European Central Bank has already raised rates by 25 basis points and revised up inflation expectations for 2027–2028; the Middle East situation and energy prices remain variables faced by central banks worldwide.
Tonight's U.S. August CPI will be a key piece before the Federal Reserve's September 16 decision. If CPI continues to exceed expectations, rate hike bets may intensify; if the data cools down, the market may get a chance to breathe. It is currently more suitable to control positions and wait for directional confirmation. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Over these years in the crypto space, I deeply understand that there is an essential difference in risk control between the crypto market and traditional financial markets. In crypto, correlation risk is often fatal. Sector rotation in traditional stock markets may take days or even weeks, but in crypto, capital can switch between different sectors in just hours or even minutes. Even more frightening, in extreme market conditions, the correlation between all altcoins and Bitcoin instantly approaches 1 — the so-called "when Bitcoin sneezes, the whole market goes to the ICU." When managing multi-asset holdings, I control correlation risk through the following five dimensions: 1 Asset layering: reshaping the core-satellite strategy in crypto. In crypto, you can't simply apply stock market logic. My evergreens are only Bitcoin and Ethereum; they are the market's anchors with the strongest liquidity and institutional backing. My growth stocks are the leaders of various emerging sectors, such as AI, Layer2, MEME, etc. Control logic: I strictly limit the total position in any single sector. For example, BTC+ETH form the base layer occupying 50%, serving as the downside protection cornerstone; the remaining 50% is allocated to 3-4 popular assets from different sectors. I never put all funds into just AI or MEME sectors to avoid total wipeout when a sector-wide downturn occurs. 2 Penetrate underlying logic to avoid pseudo-diversification. In crypto, it is common to encounter$HYPE is accumulating on-chain while the market is dumping; don't mix these two sets of data.
HYPE is around 80 today, down from 89.7, but on-chain activity doesn't show a one-sided sell-off. In the past month, protocol revenue was about $59.84 million, while approximately 775,400 HYPE tokens were burned, equivalent to over $60 million; the aid fund has cumulatively burned around 47.12 million tokens. Most of the fees are used for buyback and burn, genuinely reducing supply.
Whales are more inclined to lock their tokens rather than dump. Address 0x8e48 just bought another 116,400 tokens, about $9.91 million; over eight months, it has accumulated 1.89 million tokens, roughly $159 million, moving through Galaxy, and staking immediately after purchase. Another address, 0x6436, has accumulated 3.24 million tokens, about $252 million, all staked as well. In early September, someone withdrew 97,700 tokens from four exchanges, about $8.25 million, which looks more like moving to self-custody rather than immediate cashing out.
The hedge is unlocking and team redemptions. On September 6, nominally 9.92 million tokens were unlocked, but only about 433,000 were actually withdrawn, moved to exchanges via Flowdesk, consistent with HyperLabs' monthly redemption of staking rewards, not a one-time dump. The next major observation point is September 29, with about 14.2 million tokens nominally to be unlocked. Protocol revenue in the past 7 days has dropped about 13% compared to the previous week; on-chain holders are holding, but on-chain activity is cooling down.今天八月CPI落地 头条同比3.4% 环比0.4% 核心同比2.5% 环比0.2% 四个数字跟华尔街共识一个不差 核心2.5%还是2021年3月以来最慢的读数 按理说这是好消息 通胀确实在凉 结果呢 BTC现在77088 24小时还跌0.21% 日内一度探到76663 ETH报2468 微涨1.12% 在一个通胀数据全面符合预期的日子里 这点涨幅基本等于没反应 这场面特别像你考前把所有重点都押中了 交完卷觉得稳了 结果成绩出来老师说 这本来就是你该做到的 市场早把这个数字吃进价格里了 预期定价就是这么残酷 猜对了没奖励 猜错了才有惩罚 真正压着行情的不是CPI 是三件事叠在一起 一 布伦特原油站上105 PPI同比5.4% 上游那把火还在烧 通胀的源头没熄 二 CME给9月16日加息25个基点的概率大约56% Polymarket报到62% 注意这个词是加息 不是降息 2023年以来头一回 三 美国现货比特币ETF连着三天失血 累计4.495亿美元 昨天一天就跑掉2.826亿 ARKB一家占了1.643亿 钱在用脚投票 但它不是在看空加密 是利率一高 什么都不用干躺着收四点八的东西突然