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ETF data has quietly unfolded a new map, and capital is no longer focusing solely on Bitcoin as an anchor. Have you noticed some unusual signs on the inflow list over the past week? - From June 24 to 28, Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $924 million, Ethereum received $824 million, Solana brought in $154 million, and even XRP had $110 million. These numbers look fine on their own, but when put together, they seem to hint at something: money is starting to move toward the "second layer." I usually watch a few relative strength signals, and the most notable ones this round are: - On the ETH side, ETF inflows combined with the ETH/BTC exchange rate are recovering, indicating funds are not just passive allocation; some are actively picking up chips - SOL inflows carry momentum characteristics, with both short-term and trend funds providing feedback - XRP is favored by institutional money mainly due to compliance narratives and has little to do with pure technical aspects - HYPE's relative strength is an independent market, weak in coordination with the broader market, more like its own story is fermenting but I don't want to interpret this immediately as a prelude to the altseason. The reason is simple: Bitcoin itself has not yet stabilized, and if Bitcoin continues to fluctuate, the sustainability of altcoins will be easily drained. True sector rotation requires continuous liquidity expansion, not a one- or two-week pulse inflow. My understanding is that this round of data is more like oneTHE $60K SCENARIO NEEDS MORE THAN FEAR
Bitcoin is sitting in a market where every pullback immediately brings back the $60K debate.
But I think the distinction between a normal correction and a structural breakdown is important.
If BTC loses momentum after the September macro data, a move toward $73.5K–$75K wouldn't be surprising.
That's a reset, not necessarily a collapse.
For Bitcoin to revisit the $60K range, the market would likely need something much more aggressive:
Equities sell off hard.
Large holders and miners increase distribution.
ETF outflows become persistent.
Major BTC support levels fail one after another.
Without that combination, calling for $60K as the default target feels premature.
The key zone I'd watch is $65K–$68K.
If Bitcoin eventually reaches that area and buyers absorb the selling pressure, it could become another major demand zone.
But if that region breaks with heavy volume, the entire market structure would need to be reassessed.
This is why I'm not trying to predict the exact bottom.
I'm watching how capital behaves during weakness.
Are ETFs still buying?
Are whales accumulating or distributing?
Is leverage being flushed?
Is spot volume increasing?
Those answers matter more than a dramatic headline about the next crash.
For now, my roadmap is:
$75K area → normal correction risk
$65K–$68K → serious structural test
$60K → requires a genuine shock
Bitcoin doesn't need to remain bullish every day to maintain a larger bullish structure.
Corrections are part of the process.
The real danger begins when demand disappears and important support levels stop attracting buyers.
So if BTC pulls back, I'm not automatically calling for disaster.
I want to see where the buyers show up. Tom Lee has spoken again: the current phase is just the "first wave of the rally," with institutions betting on a big move in Q4, $BTC targeting 150,000, and $ETH gaining stronger FOMO through tokenization + AI Agent.
I don't blindly believe it, but I don't ignore it either. Lee's logic chain makes sense: if the Federal Reserve holds steady on September 15 → liquidity expectations improve in Q4 + CLARITY Act implementation + treasury companies (BitMine/MSTR) continue accumulating, these three factors combined make Q4 the most likely window for institutional allocation.
But my view is clear: the first wave ≠ no pullback, and a big Q4 rally ≠ mindless full leverage now. BTC is repeatedly testing the 80,000 level, which is a typical pattern of "end of the first wave + pre-second wave shakeout." Institutions buy with a quarter-end earnings perspective; retail investors who treat the "Q4 target" as "a pump tomorrow" risk being shaken out during September's macro volatility.
I prefer to break it down like this:
• Short term (September): watch Fed statements and ETF weekly flows; if 80,000 doesn't hold, don't trust a reversal;
• Mid term (Q4): if CLARITY passes + ETF net inflows recover, BTC challenging 100,000+ and ETH leading gains is reasonable;
• Operations: hold spot as a base position, don't max out leverage early, adjust positions after the September meeting.
I partially agree with Lee's bullish stance on ETH over BTC — the tokenized settlement layer narrative indeed favors ETH more, but BTC's status as an "institutional reserve asset" is irreplaceable in the short term; it's not an either-or choice between the two.$SNDK's late session rally yesterday exceeded 8%. The reason behind this is straightforward: it was included in the MSCI World Index. After the index officially takes effect, funds tracking the index need to rebalance, leading to a large influx of capital.
This is what people often refer to as passive fund buying. When analyzing large US stocks like this, understanding capital flow is essential.
The key question is how this will affect today's opening trend:
1. Yesterday's extreme liquidity event must have caused a liquidity vacuum. After the unconditional buying funds disappear, if there is a lack of active bulls to take over, the stock price is likely to experience a technical pullback or fluctuation in the early session.
2. This caused market makers, who sold a large number of out-of-the-money call options (buy rights) near expiry, to buy a large amount of spot shares at the close for delta hedging.
If the spot price at today's open can hold above 1,550, market makers will be forced to continue covering their spot positions, creating an upward short squeeze.
However, if the open quickly falls below around $1,530, the short-term gamma hedging positions entered yesterday may unwind (de-hedging), triggering downward pressure.
Additionally, current institutional target prices are very polarized, with some saying 3,000 and others 1,000. Coupled with the current high beta value of 3.86, any fluctuations in the broader market (Nasdaq 100) during the session will amplify SNDK's intraday volatility.📊 XAU Contract Liquidation Express (2026-09-02)
Extreme long liquidation pressure persisted throughout the day, with momentum collapsing sharply and concentration moderately high
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $2.4075M $2.3965M $0.011M
4 hours $2.4482M $2.4370M $0.0112M
12 hours $2.5763M $2.5072M $0.069M
24 hours $3.4444M $3.0065M $0.4379M
In 1 hour, longs dominated with an extreme 218x leverage controlling the market, reaching explosive levels; in 4 hours, longs maintained control at 218x leverage, volume basically unchanged; in 12 hours, longs violently took over at 36x leverage, volume rising to $2.5763M; in 24 hours, longs closed at 6.87x leverage, liquidating $3.0065M against shorts' $0.4379M, totaling $3.4444M. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 74.8% of the 24-hour total, indicating moderately high concentration—most liquidations occurred in the first 12 hours, with continued increases near the close. Long leverage dropped from 218x → 218x → 36x → 6.87x, showing a cliff-like collapse trajectory, with short squeeze momentum avalanching from extreme peaks. Leverage is advised to be compressed below 3x; direction is clear but momentum is severely weakening, avoid blindly chasing longs.
🔥 Market Wind Vane | 2026-09-02
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: on the eve of nonfarm payrolls, the market is dominated by a "hedging" logic; AI earnings season enters Broadcom's verification moment; divergence signals in the gold and Bitcoin correlation.
📊 Nonfarm Countdown: Walsh's "Hawk" Enters Final Test
Only 48 hours remain until the August nonfarm payroll report at 20:30 Beijing time on September 4. The market expects 58,000-65,000 new jobs, previous value was -23,000; unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.1%.
Walsh's hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole have pushed the September rate hike probability to 60%, but nonfarm data has been weak for three consecutive times. JPMorgan emphasizes that the "more important news" deciding the September meeting outcome is this week's nonfarm and next week's CPI. Goldman Sachs expects August core CPI month-on-month growth around 0.2%, suggesting the FOMC will hold steady. The market is currently at its most severe expectation split—rate hike expectations coexist with recession fears, forcing capital to enter with hedging posture.
₿ Divergence Signal in Gold and Bitcoin Correlation
In the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs have attracted a record $7 billion inflow combined, driven by the "fiat credit revaluation" logic pushing both higher in sync. However, after Walsh's speech, Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows again, and a stronger dollar suppressed gold and Bitcoin.
Yet today's XAU liquidation data reveals a deeper signal—longs at an extreme 218x leverage additionally liquidated short leverage, indicating a large amount of leveraged shorts in the gold contract market are being targeted. This "short squeeze" liquidation diverges interestingly from Bitcoin ETF outflows: on one side, institutional funds retreat on the spot market; on the other, contract market longs severely punish leveraged shorts. If this week's nonfarm data is weak and rate hike expectations collapse, the gold-Bitcoin correlated rally logic will be reinforced.
🖥️ Broadcom Earnings Reveal Tonight: AI Hardware Returns Under Test Again
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2 (early September 3 Beijing time), becoming the next litmus test in the AI hardware sector.
The market expects Broadcom's total revenue around $29.4 billion, up 84% year-on-year; AI semiconductor revenue expected at $16 billion, with growth exceeding 200%. JPMorgan expects 2026 full-year AI revenue to surpass $56 billion. Dell's previous report showed AI server backlog orders at $51.3 billion, but profit margin pressure remains a concern—the market will closely watch Broadcom's gross margin to judge whether AI hardware's high growth can sustainably convert to profits.
💎 Summary
Three events paint the same picture: nonfarm enters 48-hour countdown, the split between rate hike and recession expectations reaches extremes; gold and Bitcoin ETFs show divergent capital flows, but contract market longs severely punish shorts at extreme leverage, showing the "fiat credit revaluation" narrative still has firm supporters; Broadcom's earnings will further verify AI hardware's profitability sustainability.
Mapping to the XAU contract market, longs opened and maintained at an extreme 218x leverage through the 4-hour window, with shorts almost completely cleared—this is not an ordinary short squeeze but a targeted clearing of leverage structure. However, the cliff-like collapse from 218x → 36x → 6.87x reveals another key fact: follow-up long momentum is rapidly fading like an avalanche. Total 24-hour liquidation of $3.4444M is the largest among all tokens, indicating gold contract market leverage accumulation far exceeds other assets, and 74.8% 12-hour liquidation concentration means large-scale clearing is basically complete. The 6.87x closing leverage remains strong but is worlds away from the 218x opening—this is a typical signal of longs punishing shorts but lacking follow-through. Before nonfarm data release, gold contracts will likely digest with volatility; neither longs nor shorts should bet aggressively. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Latest view from Greeks.live: Strategy has resumed increasing BTC holdings. More buying can only bring short-term sentiment stimulation. Relying solely on this institution's buying power, it is difficult to reverse the overall market trend. BTC faces heavy resistance to firmly hold above the $80,000 mark.
The report points out that although Strategy has sufficient unrealized gains and conditions to continue increasing positions, on the other hand, the overall $BTC spot ETF still experiences capital outflows, with persistent selling pressure from shorts and arbitrageurs. Without incremental funds to take over, the buying power of a single institution is limited and insufficient to absorb the selling pressure above.
Coupled with the Fed's hawkish stance and geopolitical disturbances between the US and Iran, market sentiment remains fragile. Currently, volatility is rapidly narrowing, and a single bullish candle cannot support sustained upward movement; only after a pullback and then reclaiming 85,000 will the market structure truly improve. Otherwise, gamma pressure from month-end options will continue to bring selling risks.
Personal view: Institutional accumulation is a positive factor but not a market pass.
Many treat Strategy's BTC purchases as a guaranteed winning signal, but it should be noted that its funds come from stock issuance, which is targeted incremental capital and cannot replace the broad market funds of ETFs. A bull market requires resonance from multiple forces; relying solely on a single treasury institution is unlikely to drive sustained one-sided rallies.
In terms of operations, this news can be used as a cycle reference but is not suitable for directly chasing longs. Maintain a base position in spot; do not blindly trust institutional bullishness in contracts. Focus closely on ETF funds, macro data, and the actual ability to hold above the 80,000 level. On September 1, the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond closed above 5% for 55 consecutive trading days, marking the longest high yield cycle since 2006; With U.S. debt surpassing $40 trillion and fiscal deficits accounting for about 6% of GDP, the pressure on long-term interest rates is no longer just inflation; it comes from massive government financing demand, term premiums, and market doubts about fiscal sustainability. Although the Treasury's expanded long-term bond buybacks provide short-term support, they essentially only improve supply, demand, and liquidity in the bond market, making it difficult to eliminate the continuously increasing debt supply. This has made Federal Reserve policy a key intersection in determining U.S. Treasury and gold prices. At Jackson Hole, Walsh clearly emphasized that inflation remains above the 2% target, and recent data is insufficient to prove meaningful improvement in underlying inflation. Several Fed officials also believe that current rate restrictions remain limited. If employment and inflation remain resilient, expectations for a rate hike in September may persist, supporting short-term yields, while long-term yields may remain high under fiscal pressure, creating a complex environment of "tight policy rates and heavy long-term supply." For gold, this environment creates a tug-of-war between short-term and medium- to long-term forces. Rate hike expectations and high U.S. Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, and if the dollar strengthens in tandem, it will also put pressure on gold prices; On the other hand, the continued expansion of U.S. debt, high fiscal deficits, and persistently high long-term U.S. Treasury yields further strengthen the market's demand for safe-haven fiscal and monetary credit risks. Therefore, goldToday's market is a bit strange
BTC is still hovering around 78,000, while altcoins have already started to run ahead
In the past, people would comfort themselves: it's okay, BTC is stable, altcoins will follow. Now it's: BTC hasn't moved much, but altcoins are already panicking
I'm increasingly feeling that this round isn't about BTC being strong, but that people are more and more afraid to touch altcoins; before they feared missing out, now they fear catching flying knives Is anyone still shorting $ZORA?
Today, focusing on small-cap altcoins, the daily chart looks quite promising, with three consecutive bullish candles gradually forming. This pattern shows strong signs of control, most likely the project team is manipulating it.
This upward movement is not a pump out of thin air; many large addresses on-chain are accumulating tokens, indicating institutional capital entering the market. So far, no large-scale capital flight is observed. Short-term trading following the hype has speculative value.
Currently, if you want to enter, consider light positions aiming for a potential double before exiting. Be sure to set stop-losses! #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 $ARB's sudden rise today!
Speaking of this coin's fundamentals, they can only be considered average. I used it for transfers before; although the fees were indeed low, the speed was really not impressive. As an L2 protocol on Ethereum, its ecosystem development has been lukewarm. This pump obviously isn't due to fundamental improvements, mostly it's hype around zero-knowledge proofs. It probably won't keep rising for long. I'm thinking about shorting it at some point?🔥 $HYPE Can Be a Great Project… While Still Being a Bad Buy at the Wrong Price.
This is where people often confuse strong fundamentals with a good entry.
Let’s do the math 👇
1️⃣ Around 14.18M $HYPE tokens are unlocked every month.
At the current price, that represents roughly $1.1B in potential monthly supply.
2️⃣ Yes, $HYPE uses a large portion of its revenue for buybacks.
#DailyOrbit Key Focus: BTC ETF Re-Inflows | $78,000 Battle | ETH 11 Consecutive Days of Inflows | SOL Relative Strength | XRP Institutional Acceptance | HYPE Bucks Trend | ZEC/XMR Privacy Sector | LINK/UNI DeFi Rotation | SUI/ENA Unlock | AVGO Earnings | Non-Farm Payrolls | US Treasuries 4.78% | Oil Price $91 Core Analysis: On the first trading day of September, the market saw a very critical change: BTC regained ETF funding, but the macro environment for risk assets remains tighter than at the end of August. On Monday, the US spot BTC ETF recorded a net inflow of about $216.7 million, reversing the previous single-day net outflow of about $201.8 million; Meanwhile, ETH ETFs have seen inflows for 11 consecutive trading days, and XRP and SOL-related ETFs continue to see positive inflows. (FXStreet) In other words, the "BTC ETF outflow" at the end of August cannot yet be defined as institutional withdrawal. Instead, it looks more like: BTC funds temporarily take profits and cash out → then flow back back → ETH/SOL/XRP continue to receive funding. But the problem is more complex. Today, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond briefly rose to about 4.78%, the highest since early 2025; Brent crude broke through $91, and rising energy prices further reinforced inflation concerns. Meanwhile, the market pricing in a Fed rate hike in September has risen to about 65%. (Reuters) This meansThe strongest resistance wall is between 81,000 and 86,000: Why is the price always pushed down every time it touches 80,000?
Bitcoin repeatedly tests the gate between $79,000 and $80,000, but why can't the bulls break through?
The answer lies in the "supply wall" of on-chain chip distribution.
According to Glassnode data, there is heavy selling pressure firmly welded across the network in the $81,000 to $86,000 range.
This resistance is hammered by two resonating forces:
First, the long-standing trapped positions. After a whole summer of gradual decline, many long-term holders have adopted a "sell as soon as break-even" mentality, causing a sudden surge of sell orders once the price hits their cost basis;
Second, the short-term profit-taking from those who bottomed at $70,000. Short-term holders have an average cost near $70,000, and with a 15% unrealized gain after the rebound above $80,000, there is a strong urge to cash out.
Trapped holders are eager to break even, and profit-takers are eager to lock in gains, turning the area above $80,000 into a liquidity meat grinder. Until massive spot buying from ETFs forcibly consumes this supply wall, institutions will not blindly support retail investors.
Before a volume breakout is confirmed, avoid chasing highs and adding leverage in this dense supply zone. Holding the $70,000 cost line and patiently waiting for turnover to complete is the wise strategy now.
Facing the heavy pressure above $80,000, do you choose to reduce your position on rallies or continue to hold your spot assets?
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 ADP initial request, three consecutive nonfarm payroll releases. This is the first real test of employment quality since Walsh's hawkish stance. In July, nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, and for May and June, the total was revised down by 103,000. The market already had expectations for weak employment, but this time is different. If the data remains weak, the probability of a rate hike is 65%, and it won't hold out and will fall directly. BTC rebounded in the short term, with the bottom around 76,000. But if the data is unexpectedly strong, rate hike expectations will continue to surge. US Treasury yields hit new highs, BTC falls below 76,000, and the downside is between 73,000 and 74,000 This week's data will decide whether the September FOMC will increase or not. Don't take sides before the data comes out, but once the direction is out, decisively follow it. Weak data means bullish, strong data means bearish. Don't muddy the middle ground—wait for signals before making a move. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #就业数据密集公布, Walsh's policy stance is being tested. #BTC高位震荡, strengthening synergy with gold. #财报观察员: Broadcom and Dell take over, AI returns are being tested again 🔹 In the past: The unit of account (paired asset) for memes was mostly the native token of the public chain. Ethereum or EVM used ETH, Solana used SOL, BSC used BNB, and at most USDC/USDT 🔸 was added. Now: trading pairs are directly formed with tokenized US stocks (such as NVDA/TSLA/APL). Although when you place an order using tools like GMGN/FOMO and pay ETH/USDG, when you execute a trade, The backend first exchanges ETH/USDG for corresponding stock tokens, then completes meme swaps through the token pool, quietly changing the underlying liquid assets. A typical example, represented by the launch pad Long, currently has the most popular or market cap tokens like -$AI (Artificial Inu) / NVDA - $BONER / HIMS - $SPACEHOOD / SPCX. Where exactly are the innovations? ▶︎ For Meme: A new narrative has emerged, essentially betting on both crypto and US stock markets ▶simultaneously. ︎ For Robinhood: The meme sector's heat and capital unexpectedly shifted to crypto stocks (RWA), a genius cold start strategy ▶. ︎ For DeFi: crypto stocks have unexpectedly become asset and vault reserves, further expanding imagination. US retail investor base RBitcoin moving with gold instead of Nasdaq may be more important than another $80K breakout. If that relationship lasts, BTC could be shifting from a pure risk trade toward a broader monetary asset.
But there's a catch: ETF inflows just broke a nine-day streak while retail activity is near a two-year high.
That puts the next move in different hands. If spot buyers hold while institutional flows cool, BTC's market structure may be changing along with its correlation. #BTCGoldCorrelation ETF bought another $217 million worth of BTC, but I'm not in a hurry to chase it
My judgment: BTC remains bullish in the medium term, but I choose to wait around 78,000.
What the market sees now is positive: the latest net inflow of the US BTC spot ETF is about $217 million, with BlackRock contributing about $206 million; the ETH ETF has also had net inflows for 11 consecutive trading days. Institutional funds have indeed returned.
But I care more about another number: the US 10-year Treasury yield has risen to about 4.78%. In other words, BTC is simultaneously facing "institutional buying" and "high interest rates draining risk appetite."
So 80,000 is not a simple breakout level for me, but a stress test.
If the ETF continues to flow in and BTC can firmly hold above 80,000 with volume, I will remain bullish; but if the ETF keeps buying every day and BTC instead falls below 77,000, I will turn cautious — this means hidden selling pressure might be stronger than expected.
Right now, I’m not guessing the top or chasing the rally, just waiting for the market to prove who is stronger.
If the ETF keeps buying and Treasury yields keep rising, do you think BTC will ultimately follow the money or the interest rates? What is your invalidation condition? South Korea's "Kimchi Premium" Reappears, Asian Retail Investors' Risk Appetite Warms Up
Bitcoin is again trading at a premium on South Korean exchanges, with the crypto market recovery boosting local retail investors' risk appetite. The so-called Kimchi Premium refers to the BTC price difference between South Korean exchanges and international platforms, serving as an important barometer for Asian retail sentiment.
BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas points out that historically, the return of the Kimchi Premium often signals further upward movement in Bitcoin. South Korean retail investors tend to buy heavily during phases of rising risk appetite, but due to capital controls, cross-border arbitrage cannot quickly eliminate the price gap. The buying pressure is thus more reflected in local price premiums rather than cross-market capital flows.
However, this signal has clear limitations. South Korea's market volume accounts for a limited share globally, and a positive premium mainly indicates relief in local selling pressure, not necessarily the arrival of a new wave of FOMO frenzy. The real drivers of major market moves remain U.S. ETF funds and the macro interest rate environment.
This sentiment indicator should be cross-referenced with other signals. Like the long-short ratio and order depth of KO contracts, it is a leading sentiment indicator and should not be used alone as a trading basis. If the premium continues to widen alongside a simultaneous increase in South Korean spot trading volume, it indicates that retail buying pressure is truly gaining momentum; if only the premium rises without volume follow-through, the signal's reference value diminishes significantly.
Considering the current macro backdrop, U.S. Treasury yields and global liquidity remain the core constraints. The warming of retail sentiment is a positive factor but cannot counteract macro-level suppression. Everyone watches the Fear and Greed Index daily, with 68 indicating greed and 25 indicating fear. Many people directly use it as a trading signal. However, this indicator has obvious shortcomings and should not be used alone.
First, it mixes social media, volatility, and market momentum, making it easy to be misled by Meme coin sentiment. When $DOGE and $PEPE are crazily hyped in the market, the greed index will be pulled up, but BTC itself is not that enthusiastic.
Second, in the mid to late stages of a bull market, greed can be sustained for a long time, and in a bear market, fear can persist for a long time. Simply because the index is overbought does not mean it cannot continue to be overbought.
Third, Cryptopanic sentiment shows that the index is a result, not a leading indicator; the price moves first, and sentiment follows.
For example: when BTC, SOL, and $FLOKI celebrate simultaneously, the greed index soars, but there may still be some distance to the stage top, so shorting directly can easily miss the move.
Fear and greed are suitable for position sizing reference, used to adjust position size rather than directly for going long or short. Reduce positions when greedy, slowly add positions when fearful, and do not treat it as a buy or sell signal.
#BTC high-level consolidation, stronger linkage with gold
#Strategy and BitMine increase holdings simultaneously
#Robinhood on-chain trading surges, Meme coins and stocks take center stage #英伟达向联发科投资35亿美元
NVIDIA is really throwing money to make friends, or is it secretly rewriting the entire AI game rules? $NVDA
Spending $350 million to buy MediaTek convertible bonds, on the surface it's a strong alliance, but the core is Jensen Huang wanting to use NVLink Fusion to define the industry's interconnect standard
Now cloud giants are all developing custom chips, NVIDIA simply changes the game: you can make your own chips, but the high-speed interconnect interface must use mine. Courting MediaTek is about locking the ecosystem into edge AI, AI PCs, and smart cars
From NVIDIA's latest performance, computing power demand remains strong, but the market also has hidden concerns. On one hand, investing everywhere with partners can be suspected as capital cycling, artificially inflating demand. On the other hand, if downstream applications fail to find a profitable closed loop, once cloud giants tighten capital expenditure, high valuations will face backlash
✍️ Future trend forecast
Short term
NVIDIA's dominant position is unshakable; by offering concessions and binding NVLink, competitors find it even harder to completely decouple from NVIDIA
Long term
The risk is not competitors, but AI application deployment. Without blockbuster products supporting profitability, this huge ecosystem bound by investments will face the test of declining capital returns within the ecosystem
This deal is far from a simple financial investment; it is a key step for NVIDIA shifting from hardware sales to dominating industry standards
DYOR #BTC high-level oscillation, enhanced linkage with gold
1. BTC high-level oscillation $BTC $XAU
After Bitcoin's rise, it no longer rallies unilaterally but enters a high-level box range, fluctuating back and forth. The divergence between bulls and bears increases, with selling pressure above and buying support below, no clear one-sided direction emerges, making it easy to have spikes that sweep stop losses back and forth, increasing the difficulty of short-term operations.
2. Enhanced linkage with gold
Gold is a traditional safe-haven and inflation-hedging asset; recently, Bitcoin increasingly follows gold's ups and downs:
• When positive safe-haven news emerges, gold rises, and Bitcoin rises synchronously;
• When the US dollar strengthens and safe-haven demand fades, gold falls, and Bitcoin is easily dragged down as well.
Underlying logic
The market increasingly regards BTC as digital gold and a safe-haven asset rather than a pure speculative coin. Macro news such as Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, inflation data, and geopolitical risks simultaneously drive gold and Bitcoin, increasing the influence of macro news.
Actual impact on the market
1. Positive aspect
Sustained strength in gold provides a floor for Bitcoin, limiting the space for a sharp drop and making it easier to maintain a high-level oscillation pattern.
2. Risk aspect
If gold experiences a significant pullback, Bitcoin is easily dragged down synchronously, even if there is no negative news for the coin itself, it will decline passively.
Practical implications
1. When trading BTC and altcoins (ZEC, SNDK, etc.), keep an eye on the gold market; avoid stubbornly holding long positions during a sharp gold plunge.
2. The current high-level oscillation environment is not suitable for chasing highs or selling lows; try to act near support and resistance levels with strict stop-losses.
3. Focus next on: the US dollar, US Treasury bonds, and Federal Reserve speeches, as these macro factors simultaneously affect gold and the crypto market.
Simple summary
Bitcoin is now grinding at a high level, with its trend dominated by macro safe-haven sentiment. Gold has become an important reference indicator, and the market is more influenced by the external macro environment rather than purely internal crypto market funds. Why does gold price fall instead of rise when oil prices surge? #美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元
US-Iran clash again after a month: US forces strike Iranian rocket launchers in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran fires ballistic missiles at US bases in Jordan
Brent crude stands at $90/barrel, WTI rises to $85.76, both up over 2.5% in a day. Trump strongly states "will strike them hard," but says no intention to return to full-scale war
Historically, Middle East wars = oil price surge = inflation expectations rise = gold price rise; but now the market worries more about "oil price rise → stubborn inflation → Fed forced to hike rates → opportunity cost of holding gold rises." Gold price has effectively broken below 4440, with the lower Bollinger band at 4421 close by. From the high of 4755, cumulative drop exceeds 300 points.
Why hasn't gold risen? US-Iran clash → oil price surge → inflation expectations heat up → Fed rate hike probability rises (currently over 60% chance of a hike in September) → real interest rates rise → gold under pressure. The market signal is clear: the higher oil prices go, the more the market fears inflation → rate hikes → gold falls. Likely to continue fluctuating for a while before Friday's nonfarm payroll data release.
My personal trading plan:
Short near 4410-4430, target 4350-4380, adjust brakes according to personal situation!
Consider partial profit-taking near 4470-4500🚨 9.1｜BTC, ETH Morning Outlook: Don't Rush to Chase Long if the Rebound Doesn't Break Key Levels!
Today's market is actually quite simple: Before 80,000 is firmly reclaimed, I tend to treat the rebound as a correction rather than a new upward wave.
$BTC is currently oscillating around 78,300, having surged to 81,300 before quickly falling back. The weekend rebound also failed to break above 80,000 again.
More notably, the continuous inflow into ETFs has been interrupted, coupled with rising interest rate expectations in September, the market now lacks genuine incremental buying.
So, the short-term focus is on two levels:
79,200–80,500: If the rebound reaches here without volume increase, selling pressure may reappear; below, watch 77,000 first, then around 75,000 further down.
$ETH is similarly stuck below $2,500, with no independent trend yet. The 2,500–2,560 range is resistance above; whether it can break out with volume will determine if there is room to move higher.
Tonight, the real focus is on the US ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS data.
Strong data → rising rate expectations, BTC may face pressure again;
Weak data → market re-trades easing expectations, rebound has a chance to continue.
But one principle is very important:
If BTC breaks out with volume and holds above 81,300, the bearish logic immediately fails.
Trading is not about guessing the right direction, but knowing when to admit being wrong.
What do you think? When the data comes out tonight, will BTC first drop to 75,000, or directly reclaim 80,000? 👇
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 📊 BCH Contract Liquidation Express (2026-09-01)
Bears dominated all day with highly consistent direction and extremely high concentration, with volume gradually converging step by step.
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $11,900 $11,900 $0
4 hours $50,900 $16,100 $34,800
12 hours $62,200 $16,300 $45,800
24 hours $70,200 $19,700 $50,400
In the 1-hour period, bears controlled the market with extreme dominance; long liquidation was $11,900 while short liquidation was zero, reaching the confirmation range in volume; in 4 hours, bears moderately took over with 2.16 times the volume, rising to $50,900; in 12 hours, bears moderately controlled the market with 2.81 times the volume, rising to $62,200; in 24 hours, bears closed with 2.56 times, liquidating $50,400 against longs' $19,700, totaling $70,200. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 88.6% of the 24-hour total, showing extremely high concentration—the liquidation pressure is almost entirely focused in the first 12 hours, with minimal increase afterward. The bear multiple went from extreme dominance → 2.16x → 2.81x → 2.56x, showing a V-shaped reversal and then stabilizing at a high level; bear momentum retreated moderately after extreme strength and then climbed again, consistently staying above a strong 2.5x range. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x; the direction is clear but the intensity is moderate, so avoid blindly chasing shorts.
🔥 Market Wind Vane | 2026-09-01
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash's hawkish tone faces the ultimate test with employment data; Bitcoin and gold deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation"; AI hardware returns enter a validation period.
📊 Nonfarm Payrolls debut this Friday: Can Wash's "hawk" withstand the "blade" of data?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm employment report will be released. The market expects new jobs of 58,000-65,000, with the previous value at -23,000; unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%.
Just last week, Fed Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating inflation is still "too high" and "there is work to do." The market quickly pushed the September rate hike probability to 60%. However, nonfarm payrolls have been weak for three consecutive times—if this week's data weakens again, Wash's hawkish stance will face a severe test. Goldman Sachs expects August core CPI month-on-month growth around 0.2%, which would keep the FOMC on hold; JPMorgan emphasizes that the "more important news" deciding the September meeting outcome is this week's nonfarm and next week's CPI.
₿ BTC high-level oscillation: gold linkage continues to strengthen, rate hike expectations pressure
Bitcoin rose 28% cumulatively in August, once breaking through $81,000, but fell back under pressure after Wash's hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $78,000-$79,000; spot gold is also under pressure, briefly dropping below $4,450 during the session.
The core logic driving the previous synchronous strength is "fiat credit revaluation"—in the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow combined. But after Wash's speech, Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows again, and a stronger dollar suppressed gold and Bitcoin. Rising rate hike expectations are currently suppressing the short-term upward momentum of "non-government credit assets"—but if this week's nonfarm data is weak, rate hike expectations may quickly collapse, allowing Bitcoin and gold to regain upward momentum.
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell take over: AI hardware returns face re-examination
Following Nvidia's explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. The market expects total revenue around $29.4 billion, up 84% year-on-year; AI semiconductor revenue is expected to reach $16 billion, with growth exceeding 200% year-on-year. JPMorgan expects full-year 2026 AI revenue to exceed $56 billion.
Dell will release Q2 earnings after market close on September 1. The company has $51.3 billion in AI server backlog orders, with quarterly AI orders at $24.4 billion; AI server revenue is expected to be about $15.5 billion. However, profit margin pressure is notable—AI servers typically have lower margins, and the market will focus on whether the Infrastructure Solutions Group can improve its margin from 10.5%.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the same picture: this Friday's nonfarm will test Wash's hawkish "there is work to do" stance—if employment weakens again, the 60% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation" but are currently suppressed by rate hike expectations; Broadcom and Dell's earnings will successively verify the sustainability of AI hardware returns, with margin pressure becoming a new focus.
Mapping to the BCH contract market, bears started with extreme dominance, then stabilized above 2.5x multiple with highly consistent direction, making it the token with the strongest sustained bearishness today. But the 88.6% 12-hour liquidation concentration indicates large-scale liquidations were basically completed in the first 12 hours, with almost no increase afterward—although bears remain strong, they lack ammunition to further expand gains. The 24-hour total liquidation is only $70,200, a small volume; in a liquidity-thin environment, it takes little capital to maintain extra multiple premium. Currently, BCH is in a state of clear direction but peaked momentum, with limited cost-effectiveness for chasing shorts; wait for nonfarm data before making further decisions. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 Is Xiaomi at the bottom yet?
The market looks weak indeed, hovering around 3.5, corresponding to 27.6 HKD. It has dropped from 59.9, nearly halving—quite brutal.
Smartphone shipments fell 26.5% in Q2, but ASP hit 1351 yuan, a record high. They actively cut low-end models because storage chip prices surged too much to bear. Volume is down but prices are up; this is a deliberate adjustment, not a crash.
The car business is still burning cash; the Pengcheng SUV launches in September, and R&D spending keeps rising, with 9.2 billion yuan invested. No profits in the short term, but cash on hand is sufficient.
Research reports still give high target prices; institutions like Dongwu are still recommending buy. Management says the toughest times are almost over, and flagship phones will launch in the second half.
I think this level is the bottom area, but it will take time to bounce back. Let's wait for smartphone gross margin stabilization and Pengcheng delivery data before deciding. Cutting losses at this level isn't very cost-effective.
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 ——$XIAOMI 🔥 IF THE USD CONTINUES TO FALL, WHICH TOKENS CAN BENEFIT THE MOST, AND IS THE MEME 🐸 THE ULTIMATE DESTINATION FOR CASH FLOWS? There is a question I see a lot of people asking: If the USD continues to weaken... which token should I buy? Most people will answer: BTC. That's not wrong. But in my opinion... BTC may not be the token that offers the highest beta. More importantly: In what order will the cash flow go? This is what I'm observing. ⸻ 💣 USD FALLING IS NOT JUST A FOREX STORY A weaker dollar $OP: Superchain narrative heats up again, buyback becomes the biggest highlight
OP is the native token of the Optimism ecosystem. The core of Optimism is not just the OP Mainnet, but building the Superchain around the OP Stack to enable more Layer2s to share infrastructure. 
The most anticipated positive development in the market currently is that Optimism has pushed forward a mechanism for the Superchain to use its revenue to buy back OP. The previously announced plan is to use 50% of Superchain revenue to purchase OP, establishing a more direct link between network growth and token value. 
This is very important for OP because the market has long criticized L2 tokens for having "a large ecosystem but insufficient token value capture." Now with the buyback mechanism, the revenue growth of the Superchain begins to have a more direct token demand logic.
OP rose today, which I believe is more due to the overall warming of the L2 sector + a rebound from a low position + renewed expectations for buybacks. However, since OP experienced a significant decline earlier, to truly break out into a major trend, it will still depend on whether the Superchain's actual revenue and ecosystem growth can be sustained.Bitcoin near $79K isn't really a crypto story, it's a debasement one. BTC's 90-day correlation with gold has jumped to ~0.5, its second-highest ever, as US debt past $40T and a $1.9T deficit push capital to hedge the dollar. When gold and BTC rise together, the market is voting on debasement, and BTC is the high-beta version of that hedge. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults #Bessent plans to ease bank credit, high interest rate pressure to be resolved
The leader has something to say
Bessent and Wash are pushing in opposite directions.
Bessent wants to relax credit for small and medium banks, expand corporate financing, and rely on growth to ease debt pressure. Wash wants to push inflation down to 2%, with high interest rates as the tool. The 10-year US Treasury yield is 4.75%, near a 20-month high, oil prices remain above 90, and the market has chosen the Federal Reserve.
Whether credit easing can translate into effective investment will determine the outcome of this combined strategy. Investment in equipment, manufacturing, and technology means supply expansion. Investment in consumption and real estate means pushing up demand and prices, and the high interest rate cycle will only be longer.
The Treasury is also expanding long-term bond repurchases to improve liquidity but cannot suppress yields. Bessent is responsible for easing, Wash for tightening; these two forces are tearing apart, with asset prices caught in the middle.
BTC is around 780000, continuing to hold ZEC short positions. Direction is unclear, no long positions taken. $BTC $ETH $SOL
The above analysis is timely; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.Today Crypto is quite interesting.
BTC is sideways, ETH, SOL, and DOGE are all pulling back.
But HYPE has actually risen.
According to CoinDesk's data today, HYPE is one of the few large tokens that have increased in value.
I think HYPE is worth watching, not just for the price.
But for the logic behind it:
Hyperliquid is really making money and using a large portion of its revenue to buy back HYPE.
This is quite different from many purely narrative tokens.
Previously, when we studied a coin:
Narrative?
Community?
TVL?
Roadmap?
Now we add another question:
Is it actually profitable?
The logic of Hyperliquid is actually very simple:
User trading
↓
Protocol generates revenue
↓
Part of the revenue is used for buybacks
↓
Token gains value capture
Of course, this does not mean HYPE will definitely rise.
Buybacks are not a cure-all.
What really deserves observation is:
Can the trading volume be sustained?
Can the protocol revenue be sustained?
Can the buybacks be maintained long-term?
If all these are possible, then HYPE's story is not just a "hot coin".
But a very worthy case study of:
Crypto Revenue + Token Value Capture.
I think this might also be what the market will pay more attention to in the next phase. $UNITREE The first humanoid robot stock is still here, 85 is not a new main rise but a digestion of the premium
Many people trading contracts only watch the robot dog flipping, not seeing how much this stock has already digested its listing premium. Unitree is the first humanoid robot stock on the A-share market, listed on the STAR Market on August 19, with an issue price of 150.8 yuan, opening at 1100, closing at 845 on the first day, and online subscription exceeding 8000 times. It's true: about 1.7 billion in 2025, already profitable, appeared three times on the Spring Festival Gala, and DeepSeek also participated in strategic placement.
But the secondary market does not recognize story premiums. The main stock fell from 1100 all the way down to about 565 on August 31, with a price-earnings ratio still in the tens. The perpetual puzzle 1-hour chart is more direct: 88.02 is a barrier, on August 31 it dropped to 82.37, this morning it surged near 87 with volume but then retreated back to 85. This is not because fundamentals worsened, but the liquidity premium from the listing week is clearing out.
A common problem for retail investors is: the first stock with three characters can be chased, but when it pulls back they think it will go to zero. The logic and valuation are still being squeezed. Around 85 is for observation, not chasing the spike at 88. I am guiding the rhythm in this circle on this account.
The above is only personal operation sharing and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $ETH #LaborMarketTestsWalsh The US labor market faces a major test this week, with JOLTS openings, ADP employment, jobless claims and August nonfarm payrolls all scheduled for release. July payrolls fell by 23,000 while May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000, suggesting that hiring momentum may be weakening. Markets will watch whether this week’s figures confirm that slowdown or reveal a temporary soft patch.
The results matter because Fed Chair Kevin Walsh recently emphasized that inflation remains above target and monetary conditions are not excessively restrictive. Strong employment data could reinforce expectations for a September rate hike, lifting Treasury yields and pressuring gold, Bitcoin and other risk assets. Weaker numbers would complicate Walsh’s inflation-first stance. In my view, the full set of indicators matters more than any single headline: payroll growth, unemployment, wages and revisions must be assessed together.$SPCX surged 92% yet still at a loss, 144 is not a new high but a correction; many are doing contracts
Only listening to Musk's storytelling without seeing the company reveal its cards. SpaceX Q2 has already been released: $7.8 billion, +92% year-on-year, Starlink and related connections $4.3 billion, 12 million users. But the quarter still lost $541 million, AI and capital expenditures ate up the profits, and the stock price was also hammered the night of the earnings report. This is not a vaporware coin; it is a company still burning cash to gain market share. Don't beautify the market. IPO priced at 135, first day received 161, touched 225 on June 16, dropped to 105 on August 3. The main stock closed at 143.69 on August 31, just slightly above the issue price. Volume has not caught up with the average volume; after an initial lock-up period release, this is a correction, not a second main rise. Retail investors' common problem is: the story sounds good so they chase, then when it pulls back they think it will go to zero. Bluetooth is still reversing, Starlink is still rising, the logic is intact; but around 144 is not the place to chase a breakout. Pullbacks provide position; do not chase spikes above the issue price. I am watching this together with the community on this account. The above is personal operation sharing and does not constitute investment advice $BTC $ETH 😂 Known as the three musketeers of commodities, now each has its own agenda and goes its own way
Personal market insights, not investment advice
I used to think that gold $XAU, silver $XAG, and oil $CL, these three musketeers, were born from the same parents.
In the past, they almost always took off together, and when risks eased, they all dropped together, moving in sync and cooperating.
But these days, the gold and silver brothers have actually turned downward, each following its own trend.
Why has this split happened?
Simply put, although they are brothers, each cares about completely different things.
Crude oil $CL is the hot-tempered middle brother worried about supply
As long as war threatens oil transportation or oilfield facilities, worried about supply shortages, it just keeps pulling up sharply. War is a real boon for it.
Gold $XAU is the big brother who values interest rates and safe haven status
Although it has safe haven attributes, the Fed's hawkish speeches are weighing heavily. When US Treasury yields rise, interest-free gold is shunned by capital.
Even if there are geopolitical conflicts, the negative impact of interest rates is stronger, the safe haven buff is directly overshadowed, and gold still faces downward pressure.
🥈 Silver $XAG is the third brother with a split personality
Half precious metal, half industrial metal.
It has to watch big brother gold's mood and also keep an eye on global manufacturing conditions.
Brothers, have you been caught off guard by this division of the three musketeers? Do you think they will regroup later or continue to go their separate ways? Let's chat about it.
⚠️ The above is just a market review sharing, not investment advice Over the weekend, HIMS's on-chain shadow price sold up to $132. The actual stock only closed at 28.84 on Friday.
What pushed it up wasn't the earnings report, but a meme coin called BONER.
In July, Robinhood launched its own chain, originally planning to tokenize US stocks. But the launch platform invented a new play: a meme liquidity pool, with stock tokens placed directly on the other side, no longer pegged to ETH.
Thus appeared pairs like AI/NVDA, BONER/HIMS, MOO/Micron.
When buying meme coins, the system often first converts them into stock tokens, then throws them into the pool. The stock shadow tokens are locked.
The price is straightforward:
meme USD price = (how many stock tokens can be exchanged) × (current value of the stock tokens)
You are simultaneously betting on whether the meme will be crazier than the stock and whether the stock itself will rise.
BONER locked more than half of the on-chain HIMS into its own pool. Over the weekend, with the NYSE closed and new coins hard to mint, the remaining floating supply was extremely thin, causing the shadow price to once reach a fourfold premium. BONER rose about 1000% in one day.
On Monday, new coins were minted, and the premium was crushed flat. The meme can still run further on sentiment.
This is not a short squeeze bursting the NYSE—the actual stock's circulating supply and the on-chain shadow differ by several orders of magnitude. It squeezes the small pools that can't mint new coins over the weekend.
The formula is still the 2021 recipe: attention, leverage, and the "short squeeze" story. The battlefield has shifted to the thin pools on the Robinhood chain.
$ZORA $ZEC After Waller turned hawkish at Jackson Hole, CME's pricing for a September rate hike quickly rose from about 40% last week to 57%.
Short-term risk assets are undoubtedly under pressure, but it's too early to draw conclusions based solely on this probability. Three points deserve attention:
First, 57% is still a probability; the key repricing points are the September 4th Nonfarm Payrolls and the September 11th CPI. If employment weakens significantly or inflation does not continue to worsen, this expectation could fall at any time.
Second, there is a contradiction between the Fed and the Treasury Department's directions—the Treasury announced on August 19th an increase in long-term Treasury buybacks aimed at easing long-term interest rate pressure; if the Fed hikes rates now, it means suppressing financing costs on one hand while raising funding costs on the other. Therefore, September may not simply be a hike or no hike; it could also mean holding steady, relying on hawkish rhetoric to maintain financial conditions.
Third, crypto funds have not noticeably withdrawn: last week, BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $924 million, ETH ETFs had net inflows of about $824 million, close to BTC levels; stablecoin supply grew by 0.47% during the same period. Even though BTC spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $200 million on the day of Waller's speech, no panic selling was observed.
Currently, it looks more like a macro hawkish shift triggering an upward adjustment in rate hike expectations, causing short-term risk asset repricing, but no deterioration in funding conditions has appeared yet. I do not believe a 57% probability is enough to pronounce a death sentence or define a trend reversal. Short-term volatility should be guarded against; the real direction depends on the September Nonfarm Payrolls and CPI. If the data continues to support rate hikes, that will be the moment to be cautious.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 #BTCGoldCorrelation BTC pulled back after breaking $80K, but the changing correlation story caught my attention more than the price move itself 👀
After nine straight days of US spot ETF inflows, net outflows on August 28 ended the streak. At the same time, CryptoQuant reported that on-chain retail activity reached a near two-year high.
That creates an interesting handoff: institutional flows have cooled for now, while retail participation is becoming more active 📊
BTC has also been moving more closely with gold and less with the Nasdaq. To me, that suggests the market may be viewing it differently in this phase—but correlation alone doesn’t prove BTC has permanently become a safe-haven asset.
The real test is whether that relationship holds when macro conditions change or equity volatility returns.
I’m curious which signal proves more durable: renewed retail and spot demand, or BTC’s emerging connection with gold.$BTC Monthly Close: Bulls Strongly Recover
BTC finally closed this month at about 78581, almost exactly matching the key 78600 level previously emphasized by Wei Ge, just less than 20 dollars off.
A few days ago, the US military's night raid on Iran caused a drop, which now appears to have been a coordinated shakeout of contracts by the market makers. Now funds are starting to shift positively again, and 78600 is very likely to turn into a support level. Wei Ge remains bullish; Friday's non-farm payroll data may affect the short-term trend, but the target near 100,000 before year-end remains unchanged.
Trading strategy:
Enter long positions near 78600
Target first looks above 80000.
#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 What Solana DeFi is truly worth watching now may not be TVL, but who is actually making money. On August 30, $JUP's daily protocol revenue reached about $822,000, the highest in nearly seven months, about 54% higher than the recent daily average of about $534,000. More importantly, about 50% of platform revenue is currently used for JUP buybacks. 1. What's even more noteworthy about Jupiter this time is the start of revenue recovery. The $822,000 daily revenue is impressive, but a new single-day high does not yet indicate stable growth. What is truly worth watching is that if protocol revenue continues to rise, under the current mechanism, funds entering JUP buybacks will increase accordingly. In other words, a relatively direct path of value return has been established between Jupiter's business revenue and tokens. 2. Solana DeFi is shifting from "watching TVL" to "looking at cash flow" Jupiter and Raydium side by side makes it even clearer. $RAY Previously, it was revealed that the cumulative buyback scale of RAY, supported by protocol fees, has already exceeded 30% of circulating supply. Jupiter's revenue is rising, and it continues to use about half of its revenue to support JUP buybacks. This shows that an increasingly noteworthy indicator for Solana DeFi may not be how much the protocol locks up, but whether the protocol can continue to make money, and whether the money earned is returned to the tokens. 3. Tokens without value return$ETH significantly outperformed BTC by 24%, making this August the strongest month for ETH this year.
ETH and BTC have shown clear divergence. BTC's ETF saw an outflow of 202 million on August 28, while ETH's ETF continued to have inflows for 10 consecutive days, with an inflow of 102 million on August 28. BlackRock's ETHA absorbed 567 million in 9 days, accounting for 72% of total inflows. The signal of capital rotating from BTC to ETH is very clear.
Supply side continues to tighten. BitMine just bought another 53,501 ETH (131 million USD), increasing holdings for 65 consecutive weeks, with a total holding of 5.91 million ETH accounting for 4.9% of supply, only 134,000 ETH short of the 5% target. Total network staking is 42.65 million ETH, accounting for 35.3%, with over 2 million ETH in the staking activation queue waiting 35 days. Exchange balances dropped from 7.69 million in June to 6.28 million. Liquidity is locked down.
Technical aspect: 2,500 to 2,550 is a dense resistance zone, last time it was rejected at 2,527. RSI dropped from 75 to 56, the overbought condition has cooled off. Binance has 69.7% of accounts long, which is still a bit crowded. Holding above 2,400 is healthy; a volume breakout above 2,550 targets 2,600 to 2,684.
ETH/BTC rate is at a low level, the catch-up potential is real. After BTC stabilizes, ETH will be the first beneficiary. 📊 XRP Contract Liquidation Express (2026-09-01)
Bears dominated all day, but momentum has continuously weakened from extreme crushing pressure to near balance, direction unclear
Time Total Liquidation Long Liquidation Short Liquidation
1 hour $50,900 $50,900 $0
4 hours $367,200 $122,700 $244,500
12 hours $971,300 $471,500 $499,800
24 hours $2,230,500 $860,800 $1,369,700
In the 1-hour period, bears controlled the market with extreme crushing pressure; long liquidations were $50,900 while shorts were zero, reaching a confirmed range; in 4 hours, bears moderately took over with a 1.99x ratio, volume surged to $367,200; in 12 hours, bears were nearly balanced with a 1.06x ratio, volume exploded to $971,300; in 24 hours, bears closed with a 1.59x ratio, liquidations were $1,369,700 for shorts versus $860,800 for longs, totaling $2,230,500. The 12-hour liquidation accounts for 43.5% of the 24-hour total, indicating moderate concentration. The bear ratio shifted from extreme crushing → 1.99x → 1.06x → 1.59x, showing a V-shaped reversal trajectory—momentum fell sharply from extreme strength to balanced longs and shorts, with a slight rebound at the end. Leverage is recommended to be compressed within 3x; when direction is unclear, watch more and trade less.
🔥 Market Indicator | 2026-09-01
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: Wash’s hawkish tone faces the ultimate test with employment data; Bitcoin and gold deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation"; AI hardware returns enter a sustainability verification period.
📊 Nonfarm Payrolls debut this Friday: Can Wash’s "hawk" withstand the "blade" of data?
At 20:30 Beijing time on September 4, the US August nonfarm employment report will be released. The market expects new jobs between 58,000-65,000, previous value was -23,000; unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.1%.
Just last week, Fed Chair Wash delivered his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole, clearly stating inflation is still "too high" and "there is more work to do." The market quickly pushed the September rate hike probability to 60%. However, nonfarm payrolls have been weak for three consecutive times—if this week’s data weakens again, Wash’s hawkish stance will face a severe test. Goldman Sachs expects August core CPI month-on-month growth around 0.2%, suggesting the FOMC will hold steady; JPMorgan emphasizes that the "more important news" deciding the September meeting outcome is this week’s nonfarm and next week’s CPI.
₿ BTC consolidates at high levels: gold linkage strengthens, rate hike expectations pressure
Bitcoin rose 28% in August, once breaking above $81,000, but fell under pressure after Wash’s hawkish speech, currently oscillating between $78,000-$79,000; spot gold also under pressure, briefly dropping below $4,450 during the session.
The core logic driving the previous synchronous strength is "fiat credit revaluation"—in the past five trading days, gold and Bitcoin ETFs attracted a record $7 billion inflow combined. But after Wash’s speech, Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows again, and a stronger dollar suppressed gold and Bitcoin. Rising rate hike expectations are short-term suppressing the upward momentum of "non-government credit assets"—but if this week’s nonfarm data is weak, rate hike expectations may quickly collapse, allowing Bitcoin and gold to regain upward momentum.
🖥️ Broadcom and Dell take over: AI hardware returns face re-examination
Following Nvidia’s explosive $96.2 billion revenue report, the AI hardware sector faces a new round of tests this week.
Broadcom will release Q3 earnings after market close on September 2. The market expects total revenue around $29.4 billion, up 84% year-on-year; AI semiconductor revenue expected to reach $16 billion, with growth exceeding 200%. JPMorgan expects full-year 2026 AI revenue to exceed $56 billion.
Dell will release Q2 earnings after market close on September 1. The company’s AI server backlog reaches $51.3 billion, quarterly AI orders $24.4 billion; AI server revenue expected around $15.5 billion. But margin pressure is notable—AI servers typically have lower margins, and the market will focus on whether the Infrastructure Solutions Group can improve margins from 10.5%.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the same picture: this Friday’s nonfarm will test Wash’s hawkish "more work to do" stance—if employment weakens again, the 60% rate hike expectation may quickly collapse; Bitcoin and gold are deeply linked under "fiat credit revaluation" but are short-term suppressed by rate hike expectations; Broadcom and Dell’s earnings will successively verify AI hardware return sustainability, with margin pressure becoming a new focus.
Mapping to the XRP contract market, bears started with extreme crushing pressure, but the ratio dropped sharply from 1.99x to 1.06x, nearly balanced—after a directional clearing in the early session, follow-up momentum almost vanished. The 43.5% moderate concentration indicates liquidations are relatively evenly distributed across the 24-hour periods, with no large-scale concentrated stampede. The V-shaped reversal to 1.06x is the most direct evidence of market direction loss—both longs and shorts lack confidence to build sustained offense amid the triple uncertainties of nonfarm, macro, and AI earnings. XRP is currently in a balanced wait-and-see state; watch more, trade less, and await direction after nonfarm data release. #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验 #美伊再交火、油轮遇阻，布油重返90美元
The fire in the Strait of Hormuz has flared up again.
What if the blocking of oil tankers is not an isolated incident but becomes the norm?
The Strait of Hormuz handles one-third of the world's crude oil maritime transport daily. If ships can't pass, oil prices will continue to rise. Freight costs increase, insurance rises, and ultimately this pressure passes on to consumer goods prices, making inflation expectations hard to contain. If inflation can't be controlled, the Federal Reserve cannot shift to easing. Without expectations of rate cuts, BTC will find it hard to hold the 80,000 level and will instead be continuously pressured by interest rate expectations.
The impact on the crypto space is twofold.
First, short-term sentiment is under pressure. With geopolitical conflicts heating up, capital will first flee risky assets to seek safety, making a short-term drop in BTC highly probable.
Second, medium- to long-term inflation expectations rise again. As oil prices remain high, the window for rate cuts will be further compressed. As long as the Fed keeps targeting inflation, BTC will have to wait longer for a big rally driven by liquidity easing.
Here’s my take. While the U.S. is igniting tensions in the Middle East, it is also turning to Venezuela for oil. The essence of this strategy is to buy time—if the gap in Hormuz can't be plugged in the short term, they secure a substitute plan to stabilize expectations. What the market really needs to watch is not how fast the U.S. can fill the gap, but whether Iran’s interceptions will continue. If it’s just a temporary response, this oil price surge is a pulse. If it becomes the norm, oil prices have room to rise.
No need to rush in the short term; the CLARITY Act on September 15 is the real turning point.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH $BTC Treasury Company's approach may be entering its next phase. In a public discussion at Bitcoin Asia 2026, Nakamoto CEO David Bailey said he expects Bitcoin Treasury Company to participate more in mergers and acquisitions, especially acquiring companies with real business operations. He also mentioned that Nakamoto and some portfolio companies are already pursuing related deals, but not a single major acquisition has been completed yet. 1. The Past Model Was "Raise → Buy BTC → Refinance" The core logic of BTC Treasury Company was simple: listed companies raised funds; Money was exchanged for Bitcoin; If stocks gained a premium due to BTC exposure, they continued to raise funds to buy coins. Strategy has basically pushed this model to the extreme. But the problem is becoming increasingly obvious: if a company's core story is always "how much BTC is on hand," its valuation can easily rely heavily on BTC prices and capital market financing conditions. 2. The next step may become "BTC balance sheet + real business operations" Bailey's truly interesting judgment this time is to move M&A into the next phase. If BTC Treasury starts acquiring companies with real revenue and cash flow, it will no longer be just a "publicly traded Bitcoin wallet." It may gradually become a new holding company structure: BThe escalation of US-Iran confrontation: what the crude oil market fears most is not a single news item, but the transportation costs becoming a regular tax
Straits, sanctions, military actions, temporary routes—these words stacked together naturally stimulate short-term oil prices. But what's more troublesome is that traders won't wait for the risk to fully explode before acting; they will buy insurance in advance, change routes, stockpile inventory, and raise prices
It's like an invisible toll station added to the logistics system
Even if physical supply doesn't immediately break off, energy inflation could be gradually pushed higher. For the market, this kind of risk is the hardest to trade: it doesn't explode daily, but it makes inflation expectations stickier every day. The Federal Reserve already fears inflation persistence, and rising oil prices add fuel to the fire, making it harder for policy to ease
#美伊军事对抗升级，原油供应风险升温 $BTC $ETH $SOL The "rise" is the BTC spot ETF inflow over nine days (weekly net inflow still 924 million), the "fall" is the single-day net outflow of 202 million on 8/28 cutting off, and the initial value on 8/31 only rebounded by 3.6 million, which is basically no buying. The rise and fall switch within 48 hours. Don't treat the inflow of the previous nine days as a permanent buy; institutions rebalance ten times faster than retail turnover. Once the flow drops, the 80k wall immediately becomes a ceiling; if the flow doesn't return, even 78k is held with uncertainty. #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 #英伟达向联发科投资35亿美元 #Robinhood链上交易激增，币股Meme成主角 UNI's recent strong performance is mainly due to the resonance of the following factors:
💰 Core engine: "Fee switch" and deflationary model
UNI was often criticized in the past for "protocol profits, token doesn't profit." After the "UNIfication" proposal passed in December 2025, the protocol began injecting part of the fees into the TokenJar treasury. Arbitrageurs must burn an equivalent value of UNI to withdraw assets from the treasury, creating a deflationary flywheel where "the more active the trading, the more UNI is burned, and the higher the price rises." Data shows that a total of 110 million UNI have been burned (worth $630 million), and about $28.4 million worth of UNI has been repurchased and burned this year.
🚀 Key catalyst: Robinhood Chain's "pleasant surprise"
Launched in July this year, Robinhood Chain is the ignition point. As its core AMM, Uniswap captured a large volume of trades:
⚠️ Potential risks
· Sustainability of burn rate is questionable: the current annualized burn rate is about 4% of circulating supply, and Standard Chartered Bank considers it "clearly unsustainable."
· Heavy reliance on Robinhood Chain: whether trading volume can be sustained after its Gas subsidies end is critical.
The above analysis is based on public market data and does not constitute any investment advice. Please be sure to assess risks independently. Robinhood has become a phenomenal chain, reminding me of the inscriptions back in the day and the PUMP on SOL.
Now, the top KOLs in the Chinese community are all discussing Robinhood; it can be said to be very popular. I remember when SOL directly hit an all-time high, and the inscriptions also rose along with BTC.
I checked the price of Hood in the US stock market, $108.75. Revenue in the second quarter increased by more than 30% year-over-year. The Hood chain can be said to have attracted 90% of the attention within the community, but I still think it’s just the first phase. On-chain finance may become Hood’s growth curve in the future.
They are taking action, using memes to hype up the on-chain activity; this is a genuine American chain. Secondly, they are starting to connect with RWA, so it seems Hood chain may increasingly lean towards an on-chain securities trading platform. The future second HYPE is also uncertain.
I need to do more research, but I have already included it in my key watchlist. 🔥🔥🔥 The Korean premium on kimchi has appeared again, but I still didn't chase it
This afternoon I checked OKX and saw BTC at 78,400, up about 1% in 24h.
Last night it hit a low of 77,400, this morning it briefly rose to 79,400, and now it's back down to 78,400. It's even livelier in Korea, where BTC's price in Korean won on Upbit is about 1% higher than the overseas market price in USD. The kimchi premium has lasted for a week, the longest since May.
This usually indicates rising FOMO sentiment among Asian retail investors. But I didn't chase it.
One reason is that on September 6, HYPE will unlock 9.92 million tokens, equivalent to $797 million in selling pressure, which could impact market sentiment. Another is that tonight the US ISM manufacturing data will be released; if the price component exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations might heat up again.
My position remains light; I want to wait until this week's data and the HYPE unlock settle before making moves. I'd rather miss this rebound than get slapped by bad news! $BTC $ETH #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 Japanese government bonds are almost at 3%. Japan used to be the world's cheapest capital pool.
Now the 10-year bond auction yield has touched 3%, and the US 10-year Treasury yield has also surged to 4.78%. This means that the previous strategy of leveraging low-interest yen to buy global assets is becoming more costly.
What the crypto world fears is not a sudden collapse in Japan, but the gradual retreat of carry trade funds. If the yen strengthens and bond yields continue to rise, who would still be willing to take over at high valuations? #BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 AI has reduced the need for headcount but brought more Agents, also giving cybersecurity a new incremental budget. Written by: DaiDai, MSX Maitong Edited by: Frank, MSX Maitong Last week, the US stock market showed an interesting divergence. Nvidia surged after its earnings report, continuing to prove that the demand for AI infrastructure is far from over; meanwhile, CrowdStrike (CRWD) rose 20.5% in a single day, Okta (OKTA) nearly 29%, and the cybersecurity sector also saw a clear valuation recovery. On the other hand, Zscaler (ZS) once plunged more than 30% after last quarter's earnings, and SentinelOne (S) also had a disappointing post-earnings performance. Both are cybersecurity companies and both talk about AI, reflecting a very clear change behind the scenes: As capital begins to look downward from computing power to find new AI revenue sources, the market is no longer willing to buy into all "AI + cybersecurity" stories uniformly but starts to filter—who truly captures the new demand brought by AI? 1. Computing power is burning money; software should start making money One of the biggest controversies in the software industry over the past six months has been whether AI Agents will ultimately shake up the SaaS business model. Because traditional SaaS is largely built on headcount. For example, a company with 100 employees might mean 100 Salesforce, ServiceN