Orbit Post Sitemap
🔥 $LAB Short position alert! The next 48 hours are critical 🔥
📉 Today: Contract at 0.0487, rebounded 33.5% from the low of 0.0365 — I understand the pain of a 25% pullback on shorts. Spot price still around 0.066, down 47.6% over 30 days, a slow decline continues.
📊 Tomorrow 9/11 (20:30 Beijing Time) CPI
Overall month-on-month expected +0.4% (previous 0.1%), year-on-year 3.4%
Core month-on-month 0.2%, year-on-year 2.4%
⚠️ Note: September rate hike probability 50–65%
If it exceeds expectations → risk assets valuation cut → favorable for shorts;
If below expectations → altcoins rebound
💣 9/14 Unlock date
One-time monthly 16.23 million + daily linear 1.485 million, daily supply surges
Daily linear drops from 0.15% to 0.1% — this is the last window for shorts to realize profits
🎯 Strategy: Look for entry around 0.055–0.06 on rebound, don’t chase shorts at current price; move stop loss to cost price for existing floating profits, take profits in batches around 9/14.
⚠️ 95% of tokens are held by insiders, sudden spikes can happen anytime, keep position under 5%, stay alive. 【If tomorrow's core CPI is 0.2% and headline about 0.4%, basically in line with expectations, ETH's initial reaction is volatility followed by a rebound!!】The market has already preemptively dropped today.
After the PPI release, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September at different time points has risen to about 65%–74%. In other words, "inflation is troublesome, Fed may raise rates" has been largely priced in.
Therefore: if tomorrow's core CPI = 0.2%
This is not new bad news.
The market might even interpret it as:
"PPI was so scary, but core consumer inflation didn't continue to heat up."
So: US Treasury yields fall → rate hike probability declines → Nasdaq rebounds → BTC/ETH bounce back.If BTC fails to reclaim 80,000, the reversal is just a slogan!
September is likely to be weak and volatile, mainly ranging between 72,000-82,000 USD. The rhythm is more likely to first dip and then recover, and conditions are not yet in place for a direct restart of the main uptrend.
$BTC clearly cooled off after rebounding from 57,800 USD to 82,300 USD.
The daily MACD shows a death cross, bearish momentum is expanding, KDJ continues downward, but RSI6 has fallen back to around 35, approaching short-term oversold territory. Even if you chase shorts now, be wary of a rebound.
ETFs are also weakening; institutions have not fully exited but their willingness to chase prices at highs has declined. More concerning is that ETFs still have net inflows cumulatively, yet BTC consistently fails to hold above 80,000 USD, indicating that new buying is being absorbed by selling pressure above.
The macro environment is also bearish: oil prices have broken above 100 USD, PPI year-on-year rose to 5.4%, US Treasury yields are rising, and the probability of a rate hike in September is about 70%. High interest rates, a strong dollar, and pressure on the Nasdaq are all unfavorable for BTC to strengthen independently.
Next, focus only on price:
Only by holding above 78,000 USD is there a chance to return to 80,000-82,000 USD;
Breaking below 74,000 USD will likely retest 72,000 USD;
70,000-72,000 USD is the trend defense zone; if the daily closes below 70,000 USD, the structure of this rebound will clearly deteriorate.
September is not a month to chase gains but to verify. BTC must firmly reclaim 80,000 USD, ETFs must resume inflows, and US stocks must stop releasing risk for the bulls to truly regain control.Tonight, the US PPI data exceeded expectations, and the market instantly became restless again, with everyone speculating on rate hikes in September and October. But let me say the most truthful and rarely fully explained core logic: The Federal Reserve is currently caught in a standard dilemma, stuck between a rock and a hard place, neither daring to truly raise rates nor fully ease. Let's break down the underlying deadlock clearly: 1. Rate hikes = the US Treasury can't bear it anymore The massive US national debt is right there, and the annual interest payments are already astronomical. Once rate hikes restart and the benchmark interest rate rises: • The interest cost on existing debt will skyrocket • The financing cost for new debt issuance will directly soar • Fiscal pressure will instantly break the bottom line Simply put: rate hikes are like blowing up their own debt structure, and the Fed absolutely dares not do it. 2. No rate hikes = inflation can't be fully controlled This time, the PPI exceeding expectations clearly signals: inflation on the production side is very resilient, with energy and service costs continuously rising, and inflation has not fully cooled down. If monetary policy remains loose and interest rates stay unchanged: Inflation will rise again and rebound repeatedly, nullifying all previous anti-inflation achievements, and market inflation expectations will completely lose control. Blowing up debt on one side and letting inflation run on the other—both paths lead to dead ends. This is the Fed's most real dilemma right now. Tomorrow's core CPI forecast (my exclusive view) The upcoming CPI release tomorrow is likely to show a slight overheating, mildly exceeding expectations, but will not spiral out of control. It will not go to two extremes: ❌ It will not fully cool down (which would eliminate rate hike expectations) ❌ It will not severely explode (which would force the Fed into passive rate hikes) JustThis wave is indeed a major move 👀 52 million sealed on the same day, totaling 938 million involved in the case
Ministry of Justice + Ministry of Finance join forces = `crypto regulation shifts from verbal warnings to real arrests`
*Why is the Xinbi case so severe*
**Point** **Explanation**
**Model** Selling `one-stop scam tools` on TG: fake investment websites + money laundering channels + people
**Most heinous** Recruiting trafficking victims to Southeast Asian parks. The nature directly escalates to a `transnational criminal organization`
**Scale** Handled 13 parks in Madagascar, 3200 devices, arrested 400 people. Not a small matter
**USDT cooperation** Tether froze a batch of addresses. `Freezable` is a double-edged sword in such cross-border cases
Listing Xinbi as a `major transnational criminal organization` + sanctioning two supporting entities, this defines the entire "scam SaaS" industry chain
*Two key signals*
*1. The blockchain is not a lawless place*
`USDT freezable` + `on-chain tracking` + `TG channel bans`
The cost of doing black market business will skyrocket. Exchanges, wallets, and stablecoins must comply with KYC/AML
*2. Regulatory narrative has changed*
Previously, exchanges were investigated; now directly targeting `tool providers + money laundering channels`
This is actually good news for compliant projects. After so long with `#BTCETFFlipsNeg`, institutions want this: clean water Tonight, the US August PPI has been released, rising 0.4% month-over-month and reaching 5.4% year-over-year, significantly higher than July's 4.8%. Although the month-over-month figure basically met expectations, inflationary pressure has not noticeably eased. After the data release, market expectations for a Fed rate hike next week have clearly intensified.
So $BTC is actually quite conflicted right now, hovering around $78,000. After the PPI release, there was no particularly strong surge, indicating that funds remain cautious. In the short term, I will first watch if the $77,000 level can hold, with $80,000 being a key resistance above.
But the truly important data is tomorrow's CPI. PPI mainly reflects price changes on the production side, while CPI is a more direct indicator the Fed uses to assess inflation. If tomorrow's CPI continues to exceed expectations, market concerns about rate hikes may persist, increasing short-term pressure on BTC; if CPI is not that high, it might give the market some breathing room.
Therefore, I think holding $77,000 is the first priority, and whether $80,000 can be reclaimed is also very important. After tomorrow's CPI release, BTC will likely take a clearer direction.
This is purely my personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice.
#PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 , let's wait a bit longer. The inflation index will be released tomorrow. I feel that this wave in storage doesn't need to wait for interest rate hikes; once the inflation data and consumption data for phones and computers come out, the specific situation of hardware transmission to consumption will become clear. If you raise prices, people can just hold off on buying; if you keep raising prices, people will replace their phones and computers after a few years, which will obviously affect the co“SanDisk will get its first pricing next week” can be misleading. Yes, it has joined the S&P 100, but the change becomes effective before the market opens on September 21. Passive funds must adjust ahead of that date, creating mechanical buying pressure—but that flow has a limit. Once index funds finish rebalancing, they stop buying. The bigger question is whether NAND pricing, inventory, capacity discipline, and AI storage demand can support the stock afterward.#OracleAdobeToday Did the market collectively dive as soon as the US PPI was released?
Today, the US August PPI was announced, rising 0.4% month-over-month, basically in line with expectations, but the year-over-year figure reached 5.4%, slightly higher than the market expectation of 5.3%.
Although the difference is only 0.1%, the market is currently very sensitive to inflation. After the data came out, US stock futures weakened, $BTC also came under pressure, and risk assets clearly started to cool down.
What’s more troublesome is that tomorrow the US August CPI will be released. The market’s concern now is not just one PPI number, but if the upcoming inflation data continues to be on the hot side, the Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations may be further suppressed.
So I won’t directly interpret today’s drop as a major trend reversal for now. In the short term, let’s first see if BTC can hold steady; tomorrow’s CPI is the real big test.
Don’t rush to bottom-fish tonight; keep some position first and decide whether to add after the data is out.Traders infer CPI from US PPI, raising the probability of a Fed rate hike in September to over 70%
The market's reaction to the roughly as-expected PPI data can be explained by traders calculating CPI based on the already released related sub-item data. A simple regression analysis of the monthly PPI and CPI data shows that the August CPI month-on-month increase is about 0.4%, consistent with market expectations but faster than the previous month.
The revision of the PPI data also increases the risk of a similar upward revision in overall inflation data. Against this backdrop, the core inflation monthly increase remains moderate and does not provide much comfort to the market.
Traders have currently raised the probability of a rate hike in September to over 70% and have fully priced in expectations for the first rate hike by October at the latest. As a result, the US dollar has been boosted and still has room to catch up relative to interest rate trends.U.S. private employment suddenly "hit the brakes."
Latest weekly ADP data:
Private sector employment increased by only 12,000.
The number itself is not the key point,
The key is—the Federal Reserve is about to hold its policy meeting next week.
What the market is really debating now
is no longer just a simple "rate hike or not."
But rather:
Can cooling employment outweigh rising inflation?
Companies are starting to slow hiring,
and the resilience of the job market is loosening.
According to traditional logic,
weaker employment → less room for rate hikes → rising expectations for rate cuts → risk assets benefit.
But the biggest problem now lies elsewhere.
Oil prices are rising.
Tariffs are pushing up costs.
Inflationary pressures are showing signs of picking up again.
So what really needs attention this time
is not the 12,000 from ADP.
But whether it can continue to drive the market to reprice "rate cuts."
If employment continues to deteriorate,
interest rate expectations turn dovish,
funds flow back into risk assets,
BTC and ETH may react first.
And recently, the highly elastic ZEC
could see even more volatile swings once risk appetite warms up.
Employment is cooling, but inflation refuses to retreat.
This is the biggest contradiction in the current market.
From now on, don’t just watch the candlesticks.
Watch employment.
Watch inflation.
And watch the Fed’s interest rate path even more closely.
Once the direction is confirmed,
capital rotation could be very rapid.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 #BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负 $CORE｜Stop simply blaming the price drop on someone posting a message
A few days ago, someone said CORE's decline was because I kept bearish. But I haven't said a word today, so why does the price still keep falling?
Whether a token truly has value, time is the best judge. It's not surprising that in the early stages, a project attracts loyal users through narrative, roadmap, community consensus, and market hype, but the real challenge is whether it can continuously fulfill its initial promises years later.
CORE did have its shining moments early on, with its market cap once ranking among mainstream projects and building a very large community base. But over the years, the market's focus has shifted from "how big the story can be" to technical security, token supply, ecosystem activity, and whether the team can establish truly trustworthy mechanisms.
Especially with the recent node reward vulnerability incident, the market has re-examined CORE's token supply issues. The official team subsequently resolved the anomalies through a hard fork and on-chain measures, stating that a large amount of excessively issued CORE was reclaimed, while emphasizing that the total supply cap remains constrained by protocol rules.
But for investors, technical fixes are only the first step.
What really needs to be observed is: when will exchanges fully resume deposits and withdrawals? When will market liquidity truly recover? Can community confidence be rebuilt? Are there still similar supply risks in the future?
The project team can fix the code, but they cannot directly restore market trust through announcements. #PPI and CPI Released Consecutively, The Federal Reserve Faces Two Critical Days
This CPI is very crucial because the market has now pushed the September rate hike expectation to about 60%–65%, and today's August PPI came out stronger, further increasing the market's sensitivity to the CPI. The market currently expects August CPI month-over-month to be about +0.4%, core CPI month-over-month +0.2%, year-over-year about 3.4% and 2.4% respectively. 
If you look from the BTC perspective, I will focus on these three scenarios:
CPI is about to be released, what will BTC do next?
This CPI is obviously more important than ordinary data.
The reason is simple:
Nonfarm payrolls have been strong, PPI is hot today, and what the market really lacks now is the final confirmation from CPI.
Currently, the market expects August CPI to rise 0.4% month-over-month, core CPI up 0.2%. The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed in September has already reached about 60%–65%. 
So tomorrow's CPI will very likely directly determine what the market trades in the next phase.
First scenario: CPI below expectations
If core CPI is only 0.1% or even lower, it indicates inflation pressure has not further spread.
Then:
CPI cools down → rate hike probability decreases → US Treasury yields fall → USD weakens → BTC gains room to rebound.
In this case, BTC is most likely to first surge quickly, then observe whether ETF funds follow.
Because recently, BTC spot ETFs have seen large inflows turning negative, indicating funds have not yet formed a sustained consensus.
⸻
Second scenario: CPI meets expectations
If core CPI is +0.2%, basically meeting market expectations, then the market may not immediately show extreme moves.
Because:
Expectations have already been priced in.
In this case, BTC is more likely to continue oscillating, and the real direction will be decided by:
After CPI → Fed officials' speeches → September FOMC → ETF fund flows.
In other words, meeting expectations is not necessarily bearish.
As long as CPI does not worsen further, the market may interpret it as:
"Rate hike expectations are not heating up further."
⸻
Third scenario: CPI above expectations
This is currently the biggest risk.
If core CPI reaches 0.3% or even higher, the market may quickly trade:
CPI exceeds expectations → September rate hike probability continues to rise → US Treasury yields ↑ → USD ↑ → BTC, ETH, Nasdaq under pressure.
Especially now that oil prices have climbed back near $100 due to US-Iran tensions, and PPI year-over-year has risen to 5.4%, inflation pressure itself is more complex than before. 
So if CPI delivers another "fuel to the fire" number, the market will worry about more than just one rate hike in September.
It will be:
"Could this reopen a tightening cycle?"
⸻
So the real key for BTC now is not simply judging:
"Is CPI bullish or bearish?"
But rather looking at:
Actual CPI vs market expectations → how rate hike probability changes → how US Treasury yields move → how USD moves → how BTC funds move.
The market has already priced in many hawkish expectations in advance.
Therefore, I actually think:
The hotter the CPI, the greater the downside risk for BTC; the cooler the CPI, the greater the rebound potential for BTC.
But if CPI just meets expectations, the market may not immediately choose a direction, instead it is prone to whipsaws, stop-loss hunting, and then re-oscillation.
In short: Nonfarm payrolls determined the heating of rate hike expectations, PPI added fuel to the fire, and now it depends on whether CPI can fully ignite this fire.
It is especially worth noting that after today's PPI release, the market once pushed the September rate hike probability up to about 74%, then pricing from different market instruments retreated somewhat, showing the market is very sensitive itself. $BTC Once PPI is released, the real trouble for BTC begins.
The US August PPI rose about 5.4% year-on-year. Although the core PPI monthly rate was only 0.2%, below expectations, the market has quickly raised its alert for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates. Data shows the probability of a 25 basis point hike in September has increased from about 65% to 70%, and some are even starting to bet on another hike in October.
What does this mean?
The cost of dollar funds may continue to rise, and liquidity will tighten further. For high-volatility risk assets like BTC and ETH, the biggest fear is not a single rate hike, but the market suddenly starting to price in a "higher and longer" interest rate path.
More notably, Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the Litecoin mining pool, has publicly stated that based on the 70% probability of a rate hike and the expectation that CPI will not be favorable, he is preparing to short.
But the real test is still ahead.
CPI is the next big risk.
If inflation continues to exceed expectations, rate hike expectations may heat up again, and BTC will face greater capital pressure in the short term. Going forward, don’t just focus on the candlestick charts; pay close attention to CPI, US dollar interest rates, and leverage liquidations.
The macro wind has changed, and the market’s playbook must change accordingly. $BTC $ETH #BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负 #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 Yes, I added to my short again after taking some profit yesterday. I also checked the holding data across several major APs, and $LIT is starting to look like a classic high-level distribution setup. Since launching, LIT has climbed from around 0.65 U to above 4.5 U, giving it a massive multi-fold rally. Recently, the amount being held has been falling, yet the price is still refusing to correct significantly. We saw a similar structure with $CAP before the previous pullback. For me, this is theOnce the PPI was released, the market started tightening the noose on BTC again.
The US August PPI rose about 5.4% year-on-year. Although the core PPI monthly rate only increased by 0.2%, below expectations, the overall inflation pressure still made the market wary of the Fed raising interest rates again. CME Fed Funds futures show the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September rose from about 65% to 70%, with even trading expectations for continued hikes in October.
Once interest rate expectations turn tighter, the cost of dollar funding rises, naturally putting pressure on high-volatility risk assets like BTC and ETH. More notably, Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the Litecoin mining pool, has publicly stated that with the rate hike probability rising to 70%, CPI is unlikely to be favorable, and he is preparing to short.
Of course, PPI is not the same as CPI and cannot directly determine Fed policy. The real key lies in whether tomorrow's CPI can continue to push up rate hike expectations.
Next, what BTC really has to face may not be technical factors, but the repricing of dollar liquidity. $BTC $ETH #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 #BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负 Tech stocks and Chinese concept stocks have collectively declined this time. Is it a bubble burst or just a normal consolidation in the main upward trend?
From the market perspective, the three major indices and chip leaders are all under pressure, with the Nasdaq even briefly breaking below key levels. But rather than panic over intraday fluctuations, it's better to look at the divergences and rotation rhythm behind the capital flow.
First is the divergence between AI hard technology and the software side. Although Intel, Qualcomm have seen short-term pullbacks, the logic for hardware infrastructure hasn't changed at all. The real profit-taking pressure recently is mainly concentrated on overvalued application software stocks. The market is accelerating the withdrawal of funds from uncertain software sectors back to chips and computing power chains that have real order support.
Second is the macro environment pressure. International crude oil prices have recently surged past the $100 mark, directly pushing up inflation expectations and causing U.S. Treasury yields to spike again. The Federal Reserve's rate cut is still pending, and capital is choosing to seek safety and exit before major economic data releases, which is the main reason for the widespread market pressure.
As for the upcoming trend, the market is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation and consolidation in the short term. But this short-term sell-off triggered by oil and inflation expectations is often a touchstone for quality tech stocks. After the high valuation excess is squeezed out, capital will likely regroup around fundamentally strong semiconductor giants.
Regarding Chinese concept stocks, they have recently shown a typical pattern of following declines but not gains. The key still depends on the strength of domestic macro stimulus policies going forward.
$INTC
$QCOM
$AMD
$BILI
$NIO
DYOR Actually, it's not just Robinhood; it's very difficult to profit from dog-chasing on any chain. The probability of profit, 0.9%, is the overall win rate of this gameplay.
1. When pump.fun first launched and dog-chasing on the Solana chain was booming, I was also on fire. I caught several big golden dogs but eventually lost 50 $SOL and exited.
2. From reviewing my losses, I drew three conclusions and realized that dog-chasing is no different from gambling:
(1) Too many meme coins launch every day without fundamentals, and they ferment very quickly. You basically have only 3 minutes to decide whether to act. Essentially, it's like gambling with no way to research;
(2) I did catch some golden dogs, but the probability is basically only 20%. Also, it's easy to miss selling at the right time because you need to double your capital, so basically, big golden dogs are sold off after about 3x gains;
(3) As long as you keep playing, the money you earn will eventually be lost again because the fees are too high and your mindset tends to become unbalanced.
3. Take the Robinhood chain as an example: only a few coins like pons, pair, and $HOOD have emerged, which also helped drive a wave of $ARB. Nearly 400,000 other tokens have not emerged...
4. Of course, many friends have a personality of learning through practice, and I also support everyone giving it a try A quick market take: Bitcoin’s August rally toward $80K was fueled largely by expectations of easier liquidity. Now that those expectations have been priced in, the market may be realizing valuations ran ahead of reality. Don’t mistake a few green candles for a fresh bull run. With the U.S. Treasury repo boost fading, liquidity support is weaker. Unless the Fed turns dovish, downside pressure could continue. This correction may erase August’s gains—or go deeper. #OracleAdobeToday The entire market is now waiting for a direction.
$ZEC has clearly entered a high-level stalemate, wanting to push higher but lacking sufficient catalysts; other major coins are starting to weaken bit by bit. In the coming period, it will either continue to release pressure downward or have a small rebound first before deciding the true direction.
The macro situation is even more interesting.
Tonight, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.50%, marking the second consecutive rate hike, mainly due to inflationary pressure caused by rising energy prices.
At the same time, recent repurchase operations by the U.S. Treasury have not provided strong support to the bond market, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains high. The market still faces upcoming U.S. PPI, CPI, and Federal Reserve meetings, with interest rate expectations continuing to hang like a sword over risk assets.
Although the BTC spot ETF previously saw large single-day inflows, recent funds have fluctuated, with a net outflow of about $46.6 million recorded on September 8.
In contrast, the story for $ZEC is completely different.
ZEC has recently surged above $1,200, with its market cap once entering the top ten in the crypto market; after the launch of Grayscale's ZCSH ETF, assets under management have exceeded $500 million, holding over 550,000 ZEC, showing a clear increase in institutional interest in the privacy sector.
So the most worth watching now is not "whether ZEC can still rise," but:
Can the high level continue to expand volume? Can ETF funds continue? Can the shorts continue to be squeezed? Iran allows BTC and USDT for foreign trade settlement, and many see this as a victory for cryptocurrency. But personally, I believe this is actually a "reluctant move" forced by sanctions. How far can cross-border payments for crypto assets go? 💡 First, will $BTC and $USDT for foreign trade settlement become the future trend? Personally, I don't think they will become global mainstream; it is more like a "marginalized survival strategy" in specific environments. Iran chose them fundamentally because traditional foreign exchange (SWIFT) was cut off by the U.S., which is a reluctant move rather than an active embrace of innovation. Second, although USDT settles quickly, its underlying layer is anchored to the dollar and US Treasuries. Iran's use of it is essentially a disguised endorsement of US Treasury demand. It can be extended to the point that if countries widely follow suit, it would be equivalent to transferring their own settlement rights to the U.S., losing economic sovereignty. Therefore, the long-term sustainable trend should be "sovereign digital currencies pegged to domestic currencies," rather than relying on other countries' stablecoins. 💡 Some may ask: if more and more countries attempt crypto cross-border settlements, what is the biggest challenge? Personally, I believe the biggest challenge lies in the fundamental contradiction between "financial sovereignty" and "settlement efficiency," as well as the resulting regulatory and trust crises. First, there is the risk of losing sovereignty; using USDT is equivalent to indirectly purchasing U.S. debt, losing part of its monetary subjectivity, and even being subject to external control. Second, the "sanctions risk" of centralized stablecoins: USDT issuers are regulated by the U.S. and can freeze assets at any time upon request. Entrusting the lifeblood of the nation to themIran allowing exporters to settle foreign trade through BTC and USDT is not simply a bullish “crypto adoption” headline. The deeper signal is financial infrastructure under pressure. With sanctions, banking restrictions and the current blockade disrupting traditional trade channels, Iran is giving exporters more room to use crypto rails for cross-border settlement. The Financial Times reports that the central bank has eased FX rules to allow crypto-based settlement. But here is the part tradersPPI overheated overnight, three popular coins lined up to take a beating
When the market takes a hit, popular coins always kneel one by one in order — tonight these three are clearly lined up.
PPI year-on-year at 5.4% exceeded expectations, risk assets collectively bowed down. BNB suffered the worst, dropping over 4% in 24 hours, sliding directly to $718; SOL fell about 2%, $101 is barely holding; $XRP was relatively restrained, slipping near 1.39.
This is the order of beta. BNB had the biggest gains with consecutive rises earlier and is a platform coin amplifier, so it pays the hardest when the tide recedes; SOL is the public chain barometer, breathing with the market; $XRP had a large unlock at the start of the month and held up decently, falling slowly but unable to bounce — three types of declines correspond to three chip structures.
If sentiment continues to worsen tonight, BNB will first watch the 700 whole number level, SOL at 100, $XRP at 1.35; if tomorrow night’s CPI brings a sweetener, the rebound order will likely reverse, with the heavily fallen BNB and SOL leading the bounce.
Watch the order when taking a beating, watch the order when rebounding, remember who kneels fastest tonight.
#财报观察员：甲骨文与Adobe今晚交卷 #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 #BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负 Brothers, starting tonight, two inflation bombs will explode one after another.
At 20:30 on September 10, the US August PPI data will be released. The market expects a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, a year-on-year rise to 5.2%-5.3%, and core PPI to rise to 4.7% year-on-year. At 20:30 on September 11, the August CPI will follow. Overall CPI is expected to increase by 0.4% month-on-month, core CPI is expected to remain at 0.2%, and the annual growth rate is expected to slow from 2.5% to 2.4%.
Why are these two data points so critical?
The market has already reacted in advance
$BTC has fallen from $80,000 at the beginning of this week to $77,845, a drop of 2.7%. This decline is not only a price movement but also a position adjustment—traders have reduced leveraged long exposure before the data release, open interest in perpetual contracts has declined, and funding rates have compressed to near neutral. This is a market that has removed risk from the table rather than turning bearish.
Two scenarios
If the overall inflation acceleration is limited to energy (Brent crude oil has already broken $100), the repricing of rate hikes may only be a temporary phenomenon; but if core CPI reaches 0.3% or higher, the pressure will continue, and Bitcoin may further test $75,500.
If the data meets expectations, the market retains room to retest $80,000.
The core contradiction is just one: overall inflation driven by energy vs. still moderate core inflation. The former is noise; the latter is what the Federal Reserve is truly focused on. #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 Don't turn blockchain into a "cultivation novel": ACO that can be used daily is truly hardcore 💡
Every day you see various projects boasting in their whitepapers about "interstellar throughput," "dimensionality reduction strike-level algorithms," yet they can't even handle smooth chatting and transfers properly.
The crypto world doesn't need so many mysterious and unfathomable metaphysics.
The logic of ACO / ALD is simple yet deadly:
Bring social and live streaming onto the chain, making you want to open it every day;
Integrate complex cross-chain and trading into the underlying layer, so even beginners can operate blindly;
Generate Gas through real interactions, letting the ecosystem self-sustain instead of relying on air.
Good products speak for themselves, good infrastructure gets users to vote with their feet.
Do you think the current mainstream public chains are making simple things more and more complicated?👇
#ACO #ALD #BlockchainTruth #Web3Apps #MinimalistExperience 📂 20U Real Account Record 026
💰 Principal: 20U
📉 Current Trade Profit: Floating Loss
✅ Cumulative Profit: 40U
📌 Current Position: $SOL
PPI was just released: 5.4%, higher than the expected 5.3%.
The number itself isn't exaggerated, but the market reaction is noteworthy — the 10-year US Treasury yield surged directly to 4.90%, putting pressure on all risk assets.
SOL fell below $100, currently at 99.88, leaving less than $2 room before my stop loss at 98.
The current situation is:
· Entry price 103.53, current price 99.88, floating loss about 3.5%
· Stop loss at 98, not triggered yet but very close
· CPI release tomorrow night, which is a bigger variable
Tonight's "slightly above expectations" PPI has already made the market nervous. If tomorrow night's CPI also comes in strong, the rate hike expectations will further intensify, and SOL may directly test 98.
My thoughts:
The stop loss will remain unchanged for now; if 98 breaks, I will exit. This discipline will not change because of tonight's volatility.
But honestly, tonight's PPI makes me more pessimistic about the tolerance for tomorrow night's CPI. If CPI also exceeds expectations, this trade will most likely hit the stop loss and exit. $BTC has dropped, and the downward trend is expected to continue for 3 days, so manage your positions carefully.
The sharp escalation of geopolitical conflicts is the main trigger for the decline.
The stability of the Strait of Hormuz is seriously threatened, Brent crude oil has surged above $100 per barrel, directly pushing up inflation expectations. The oil price surge has driven the 10-year US Treasury yield to its highest level since the end of 2023, causing a sudden tightening of macro liquidity and putting comprehensive pressure on risk assets.
Expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes are rising simultaneously. The market pricing for a September FOMC rate hike has risen above 60%, resonating with geopolitical risks. ETF funds have also shifted, with a net outflow of about $100.7 million from the US spot BTC ETF on September 9, ending the previous three consecutive weeks of inflows.
Internal risk events have intensified panic. A security incident occurred on the Liquid Network, with about 4,000 BTC abnormally withdrawn (worth about $340 million), approximately 600 BTC not yet returned, and network operations remain suspended.
The downward trend is expected to continue (3-5 days): The US August CPI data on September 11 is the decisive variable. If inflation exceeds expectations (market expects a month-on-month increase of +0.4%), rate hike expectations will further strengthen, and BTC may drop to $75,000 or even lower; if the data is soft, it could ease pressure and trigger a rebound.
#PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 Current interest rate hike expectations have surged to nearly 60%, with the overall macro environment leaning hawkish.
Strong non-farm payroll data and rising US Treasury yields have combined multiple bearish factors, causing normal risk assets to have long been under pressure and in correction.
But $BTC's performance is extremely abnormal, not falling despite bearish factors, and holding firm against the trend.
The core reason is straightforward: retail investors and macro outlook are bearish, but institutional funds are aggressively accumulating.
BTC spot ETFs have maintained net inflows for three consecutive weeks, with nearly $1 billion added again in a single week.
The market is no longer a simple long-short game, but a strong hedge between the Fed's hawkish expectations and institutional spot support.
All suspense now rests on the upcoming PPI and CPI data releases.
If inflation strengthens again, this round of strong support could be broken at any time;
If inflation eases and rate hike expectations cool down, this accumulated institutional incremental capital will directly trigger a new round of rally.
This wave of resilience against the trend is not due to a stronger market, but purely institutions stubbornly propping up the floor.
#财报观察员：甲骨文与Adobe今晚交卷 #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 #BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负 Quantum attack cost halved, is $BTC doomed?
1151 logical qubits, less than half of Google's version.
Data looks like this: composite score 1.5 billion, Google is 3 billion. Back-calculating, it means the attack threshold is directly cut in half.
Follow or not: the paper itself says it's not imminent. But migration will take several years, and by the time the attack comes knocking, it will be too late to run.
Short-term traders don't care about this; no price reaction means no reaction.
But when that day really comes, the first thing likely to crash won't be the coin price, but confidence.
I'm holding my position, keeping an eye on this number first.
#BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负
#伊朗允许BTC与USDT外贸结算 #BTC与黄金90日相关性升至+0.50 $BTC Iran’s On-Chain Shift
Iran reportedly allowing $BTC and $USDT for foreign trade settlement could be bigger than “Iran buying Bitcoin.”
As sanctions restrict traditional banking and cross-border payments, on-chain rails offer an alternative:
$BTC → global value transfer
$USDT → dollar-denominated settlement
If more countries facing sanctions, FX shortages, or currency weakness adopt crypto for trade, BTC and stablecoins could evolve from risk assets into alternative global payment rails. Whether it's a conspiracy theory about deliberately using oil prices to control the bubble, or being forced by Iran with no other choice, the continuous rise in oil prices is definitely more harmful than beneficial for Trump. However, with the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) nearly depleted, it will certainly be harder to suppress oil prices this time compared to last time. In the end, it will probably be the oil prices hitting the U.S. stock and bond markets so hard that the U.S. is forced to reconcile with Iran again.
The upcoming China-U.S. summit at the end of the month conveniently provides an opportunity to offer a face-saving exit and a private deal, so oil prices probably won't really drop only after the midterm elections in November as Trump said. Letting the U.S. endure over $100 oil prices for two months straight would be pure hell. If that's the case, risk assets should be shorted immediately until November... $CL $CORE This technical review is a carefully packaged narrative, hiding risks that are too daunting to face directly. Holders must not be deceived!
At the end of August, a vulnerability in node rewards was exposed, with a few nodes excessively claiming tokens. The project team hard-forked and upgraded to recover 186 million CORE. The official statement emphasized that the total supply of 2.1 billion has not been exceeded; it is merely an early release of future rewards. The network was not hacked; only the node accounting module malfunctioned.
Before the vulnerability was exposed, some of the excess tokens had already flowed into the secondary market and cannot be recovered. This is the core reason exchanges suspended deposits and withdrawals.
The whole scheme is very clear: only promote the positive news of recovering chips, downplay the selling pressure from existing tokens; only after the situation spreads and exchanges implement risk controls do they passively release the review; they are vague about the handling of tokens that entered the market and the timing of resuming deposits and withdrawals, prolonging the time to digest the panic.
Community opinions are sharply divided.
Optimists believe the vulnerability has been sealed, the hard fork implemented, and risks are controllable;
Cautious parties worry that once exchanges reopen deposits and withdrawals, accumulated selling pressure will surge out, causing a huge impact on the market.
Market liquidity is weak; no matter how brilliant the technical narrative is, it cannot erase the uncertainty of leftover chips.
Don’t be lulled by comforting rhetoric; holders should defend their position’s bottom line, and those not yet in the market should not rush to bottom-fish or speculate.
The dazzling explanations cannot cover the sword of selling pressure hanging over holders’ heads 🫡
The above is only personal information collation and observation, and does not constitute investment advice.1151 个逻辑量子比特，约 130 万次 Toffoli 门操作。这是最新论文给出的数字，比谷歌此前估算的资源少了一半以上。
刚入圈的人该关心什么？先问，量子攻击明天会来吗？论文作者自己说了，不是迫在眉睫。
再问，那为什么现在要提？因为抗量子迁移要花好几年，没法等攻击发生了再改。
最后问，这改变什么？它把“以后再说”的缓冲期缩短了，$BTC 和 $ETH 的地址格式和签名机制迟早要动。
我不预测币价，只撂一句：真正先动的不会是行情，是钱包和交易所的升级公告。
#BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负
#伊朗允许BTC与USDT外贸结算 #BTC与黄金90日相关性升至+0.50 $BTC $ETH With central banks in Europe and the US tightening simultaneously, BTC is not really facing technical issues, but global funding prices have changed. On September 10, global markets received a signal that is easy to overlook but has a significant impact on risk assets: the European Central Bank raised rates by 25 basis points as expected, while at the same time, the US short-term interest rate market began pricing in stronger rate hike expectations. On the surface, this seems like a routine ECB policy adjustment; But if you look at Europe and the US on the same interest rate map, things are not so simple. The ECB raised the deposit facility rate from 2.25% to 2.5%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65%, and the marginal lending facility rate to 2.9%. The simultaneous increase in three key interest rates means that European funding prices have been pushed up again. More notably, the US market has not continued trading in the direction of "interest rates are about to fall rapidly." Weakening short-term interest rate futures prices means the market is pricing in future policy rates. In other words, interest rate expectations in the two core global economies of Europe and the US are simultaneously moving toward tighter trends. What does this mean for BTC and ETH? In short: the crypto market is shifting from being "liquidity-driven" to gradually returning to "cost of capital" drives. First impact: risk-free yields are becoming competitors again. In recent years, the most overlooked logic in the crypto market has been that investors have not only chosen BTC, ETH, and altcoins. The real competitors have always existed in traditional financial markets. 谷歌多重股权结构演化与双股票代码定价机制研究 在公开资本市场中，谷歌母公司 Alphabet Inc. 同时维持两只活跃交易的股票代码——纳斯达克挂牌的 $GOOGL 与 $GOOG。这种罕见的一企双码挂牌模式并非偶然的财务技术安排，而是现代大型科技企业在资本扩张、人才激励与长期控制权捍卫之间深度博弈的制度化产物。深入审视 Alphabet 的股本演进路径可以发现，双交易代码背后所依托的实际上是包含非流通股在内的“三元股权架构”（Tri-Class Structure）。 股本三元架构：表决权与经济利益的非对称分配 Alphabet 的资本构成由三类权能截然不同的股份组成，公开市场所见的两只股票代码仅涵盖了其中的两类，最关键的控制权枢纽则隐匿于非公开市场。 从所有权与现金流权益（Cash-Flow Rights）的角度衡量，A、B、C 三类股份的内在经济价值完全同质。无论是公司在 2024 年开启的定期季度现金分红，还是破产清算时的剩余资产分配，抑或是企业合并与重组中的每股对价，三类股东均受公司章程与法律的同等保护，享有平等的经济追索权。 这一架构的核心差异严格限定在治理层面的“表决#LAPTOP's debut price dropped nearly 99%, Meme market controversy heats up
Just saw a piece of news: a Meme coin launched and immediately crashed by 99%.
LAPTOP launched on Base, its price surged to $191, then instantly fell back to zero. The most outrageous thing is not the drop itself, but that its FDV once reached $144 billion, while the liquidity pool only had $48,000. In other words, the market cap was inflated, and there was hardly any real money behind it. The founding team took 30%, 20% was used for airdrops, and once the first round of recipients sold, the market maker's inventory was dumped, causing the market to crash through.
This is not an issue with a single project, but a common problem in the entire Meme sector. Tokens are highly concentrated, early movers have huge advantages, and liquidity for exit is almost zero. It looks lively when prices rise, but no one can escape when it crashes. LAPTOP just amplified this problem; it acts more like a risk sentiment amplifier rather than the sole cause of the sector's correction. At the same time, mainstream coins and altcoins are also under pressure, and the Meme crash only intensified the panic.
For BTC, the short-term impact is limited, but the transmission of sentiment cannot be ignored. The Meme market crash will cause some hot money to withdraw from high-risk areas, and funds may flow back to more liquid mainstream assets. However, if it triggers a chain liquidation, the risk will still spill over.
In terms of trading, one sentence: stay away from projects with poor liquidity, and don't be fooled by high FDV. No matter how high the market cap looks on paper, if there is no money in the pool, it's all just paper wealth. $BTC $ETH $TRUMP The market has now priced in the answer: the 24-hour showdown is tomorrow night with the CPI
The most critical inflation reference before the Fed's September meeting, the market is closely watching its guidance on the policy path.
Why is the market so focused on this CPI?
Currently, there is a clear divergence in the market on whether the Fed will raise rates in September, with the core conflict being whether inflation has cooled enough:
· Hawkish view (e.g., Bank of America): forecasts August core CPI to rise 0.22% month-over-month, believing this level is sufficient to support another rate hike by the Fed in September.
· Dovish view (e.g., Citi): forecasts core CPI to rise only 0.18% month-over-month, believing the inflation cooling trend is enough for the Fed to hold steady.
Fed Chair Powell has previously stated that the August inflation data will be a key basis for decision-making. The interest rate swap market currently prices the probability of a September rate hike at about 50%-60%, showing high market tension.
Key judgment threshold
Citi’s report provides a clear observation standard: a core CPI month-over-month growth rate below 0.30% may be seen as a continuation of the inflation slowdown trend; but if it exceeds 0.19%, some officials may lean toward supporting a rate hike. In other words, a reading around 0.2% will be the focus of market contention.
Details to watch
Currently, there is a structural divergence between the two major inflation indicators, CPI and PCE: housing inflation slowdown is pushing down core CPI, but rising medical costs are pushing up core PCE. Since the Fed places more emphasis on the PCE indicator, even moderate CPI data does not necessarily eliminate the pressure for policy tightening.
After tomorrow night’s data release, the market will likely quickly price around the critical 0.2% watershed. If your portfolio is sensitive to interest rates, it is recommended to prepare in advance for volatility.$BTC 比特币：ETF风向变了，CPI才是真正的关卡 大饼卡在78000附近反复拉锯，屡次试探8万关口，就是没法稳稳站住。 之前ETF源源不断大额流入，被很多人当成最大靠山，可现在资金风向直接反转，开始出现净赎回。 单日流出不等于机构集体跑路，更多是高位调仓。 但信号值得警惕：以前资金进场，币价都涨不动，如今资金开始往外撤，盘面少了一大块兜底力量。 现在市场资金明显分流，大量热钱跑去爆炒各类山寨，大饼缺少增量买盘，只能靠存量资金来回博弈。 合约盘面不停插针，多空止损轮番被扫，拿着单子格外磨心态。 今晚PPI、明晚CPI才是重中之重。通胀数据会直接决定美联储9月加息的预期。 数据如果超预期偏高，加息预期抬头，大饼会承受不小压力；如果数据降温，市场才会有喘息机会。 不要把ETF单日数据当成涨跌判决书，重点要看会不会连续多日流出。 在CPI落地之前，大概率还是高位震荡，不要赌单边暴涨暴跌，谨慎追高。 #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 #BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负 #伊朗允许BTC与USDT外贸结算 $BTC First, my conclusion
The day before Data Week, the market sentiment was first pulled back. BTC fell below $78,000 this morning, down 1.64% in 24 hours; ETH is at $2,467; BNB dropped 4.2% in one day to $722; the total crypto market cap fell to $2.75 trillion, shrinking 1.1% in 24 hours. The capital flow also showed no mercy: yesterday, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $120 million, with ARKB alone withdrawing $78 million.
But reviewing the on-chain records, prices are retreating, but the money hasn't left. Someone today withdrew a buy order of 385.72 BTC at $77,377 and re-posted it at $76,377, with the amount still $29.46 million, effectively pushing the willing purchase price down by $1,000. ZEC counter-trended to around $1,300; early buyers sold 13,000 coins in three rounds, pocketing $5.09 million, while new buyers simultaneously bought 9,426 coins, indicating a position swap between old and new bulls.
My judgment is that this looks more like proactive risk reduction before data release; the trend hasn't reversed yet. The position to defend is between $76,000 and $77,000, and the threshold to wait for is $82,500. Before the PPI and CPI data come out, the side that fully loads their position first usually gets hit first. PPI exceeded expectations, BTC fell below 77,000: Stop loss triggered, but I'm not panicking yet
Tonight, August PPI year-on-year is 5.4%, 0.1 percentage points higher than the expected 5.3%. After the data release, US Treasury yields rose, the dollar strengthened, and the crypto market immediately came under pressure—BTC fell below the 77,000 USD support level, currently at 76,700 USD, down 1.94%, directly breaking through my stop loss line. Major coins generally pulled back, with some smaller coins dropping nearly 5%.
To be honest, it was indeed unpleasant the moment the stop loss was hit. But what reassures me a bit is that there was no extreme panic selling on the market; long-term holders are still net buyers, and the chip structure has not collapsed.
I am very clear that PPI is just a preliminary battle; tomorrow night’s August CPI is the core variable that will determine the Fed’s rate hike pace in September. Before the CPI release, market sentiment will only grow more cautious.
My choice: stop loss executed, no short chasing, no bottom fishing, no leverage increase; I will wait for tomorrow night’s data to give direction. #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
#OKX星球话题来啦
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $MSTR token at 128.95, down 8.26% in 24h, with the underlying stock supported by buyback news in pre-market. The biggest contradiction is the company buying preferred shares instead of Bitcoin, showing cracks in the old belief. Details below.
📰 News: Wall Street praises Strategy reset, Schiff criticizes Saylor's surrender; company invests 176 million in preferred shares instead of Bitcoin, underlying stock rebounds in pre-market.
🔧 Technicals: Daily RSI14 at 42.4 is weak, MACD bearish crossover with expanding green bars, broke below MA7 but above MA25, moving averages 7/25 still in bullish alignment.
🌍 Macro: Nasdaq 100 tokens down 1.17% pre-market, token premium at -2.83%, risk appetite is cold, suppressing resilience.
🎯 Today's view: I'm optimistic, buybacks and preferred share moves are repairing the balance sheet, short-term hurts BTC narrative but underlying stock shows stronger resilience.
📊 Token 128.95 (-8.26%) | Underlying stock 132.70 (-2.80%) | Premium -2.83% | US pre-market
💎 Summary: Watch for underlying stock buyback execution and token premium recovery; risk is BTC continuing to weaken dragging sentiment.
#USStockToken
#MSTR
#BitcoinNarrative #财报观察员: Oracle and Adobe report earnings tonight
Tonight, we need to keep an eye on the US stock market after hours again.
Oracle and Adobe are reporting together. One focuses on cloud infrastructure, the other on software, so it's a good chance to see if AI investments can really turn into cold hard cash.
I'll break down the impact on the crypto space in two layers.
First layer: Oracle's results directly reflect whether capital spending on AI infrastructure has slowed down. If OCI growth beats expectations, it means companies are still pouring money into computing power, making the AI hardware sector more certain. This is an indirect positive for AI and DePIN projects in crypto. But conversely, if all the money is sucked into AI infrastructure, the liquidity available to the crypto market in the short term naturally decreases, which is a diversion pressure.
Second layer: Adobe's results show whether the software side can turn AI into real money. If it can increase revenue through AI, it means AI is not just burning money on hardware but also starting to generate real returns on the software side. This serves as a reference for crypto AI projects—pure storytelling will become harder to sustain, and only those with real income will remain.
Here’s my take.
Tonight, Oracle and Adobe are two signal lights. One verifies input-output, the other verifies monetization ability. If both hold steady, the tech sector's risk appetite won't be bad, and the crypto market can catch a breather. If one side falters, short-term sentiment will be affected.
What do you think?
$BTC $ETH 1. How will tomorrow night's CPI determine the Fed's direction in September? (Data decides life or death)
This week, global markets are closely watching two dates: September 10th PPI and September 11th CPI. These two inflation reports will directly determine the interest rate direction at the Fed's September 15-16 meeting.
Current market expectations:
· The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September has risen to about 60% (once surged above 65% after the non-farm payroll release)
· Fed officials clearly state "August inflation will greatly impact the rate decision" — core CPI month-on-month ≤0.2% tends to maintain rates,
0.3% considers a hike
· If CPI month-on-month >0.3%, a September rate hike may be certain (probability may reach 80%)
Three scenario simulations:
CPI data performance Fed's September decision Global asset reaction
Significant cooling (core CPI month-on-month ≤0.2%) Maintain rates US Treasury yields fall, USD weakens, tech stocks, gold, growth stocks rebound
Slightly hot (core CPI month-on-month >0.3%) Hike 25 basis points US Treasury yields rise, USD strengthens, gold/growth stocks/global bonds under pressure
Moderate Continue to wait and see, suspense drags to October Market repeatedly pulled in uncertainty, volatility increases
2. Specific impact on global assets (transmission chain has started)
Rising rate hike expectations have triggered a chain reaction:
· US Treasury yields: 10-year yield rebounds to around 4.79%, 30-year remains above 5.2%
· US Dollar Index: fell to 98.9 on Monday, but may strengthen again with rising rate hike expectations
· Gold: international gold price back above $4500/oz, but will face pressure if rate hike materializes
· Crude oil: Brent crude breaks above $90, geopolitical conflicts + tight supply and demand push oil prices up
· Global stock markets: high valuation growth sectors (tech, new energy) under obvious pressure, funds shift to stable value assetsThe US August PPI released tonight is out: month-on-month up 0.4%, in line with expectations; year-on-year 5.4%, slightly above market expectations. Core PPI month-on-month is 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%. Overall, the data is not obviously out of control, but inflation pressure has not completely eased, especially after oil prices and transportation costs rose, the market's concern about interest rates will persist. #PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日 Data shows that after the release, US Treasury yields rose, and stock index futures weakened.
For crypto, the short-term focus is on the US dollar and US Treasury yields. If yields continue to rise, the market will feel that the Federal Reserve will not easily shift to easing, and risk assets like BTC and ETH are likely to come under pressure first, with altcoins and highly leveraged funds usually experiencing greater volatility. But the core data being below expectations also indicates that this PPI is not a comprehensive worse-than-expected bearish factor, and the market may not directly move into a one-sided decline.
Simply put, tonight's data is more like a "suppressive sentiment" rather than a final verdict. Next, we need to watch tomorrow night's CPI: if CPI is also hot, macro pressure may continue to increase; if CPI is moderate, the tension caused by today's data has a chance to ease. $BTC 263,000 new tokens sprouted from Solana in one day. The last time we saw this scale was during the memecoin cycle peak, with a daily average of 40,000 to 50,000.
The issuance threshold has been pushed close to zero by launchpads, turning token creation into an automated process, bundling liquidity and exposure together. Out of the 263,000, 40,000 went through launchpads, with 34,000 coming from Pump.fun.
The next phase for this chain is not on the issuance side, but on the revenue side. Pump.fun remains the highest daily revenue native protocol on Solana, making $1.8 million in a single day, accounting for $124 million out of the $342 million total network revenue in the quarter.
Keep an eye on the ratio of issuance volume to protocol revenue. If issuance volume keeps rising but revenue does not follow, it means the growth is just idle circulation, and this judgment should be overturned. I'm counting this, counting until my eyes go blurry.
#LAPTOP首发跌近99%，Meme市场争议升温 $SOL Bitcoin and Ethereum both declined today, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $77,000 and Ethereum dipping to around $2,410.
The main reasons for the decline are dual pressures from macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. The US-Iran conflict escalated, with Iran attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the US sinking five Iranian oil tankers. Brent crude oil prices surged back above $100. The spike in oil prices pushed up inflation expectations, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to a three-year high, and the market priced in about a 68% chance of a Fed rate hike in September, sharply reducing the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets.
Liquidity also tightened. The US spot Bitcoin $BTC ETF saw net outflows for three consecutive days, totaling about $147 million. On-chain data shows that large holders only increased their Bitcoin holdings by a net 4,100 coins in 30 days, far below the previous average of 61,000 coins, indicating a clear lack of marginal buying. Ethereum $ETH also suffered from its own ecosystem weakness, resulting in a deeper decline.
In the short term, CPI data and the Fed's policy meeting will determine the market direction.
Stay calm and wait; bottom opportunities are coming.
#PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日
#BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负
#伊朗允许BTC与USDT外贸结算 The night when PPI exceeded expectations, four faces with four fates
#PPI, CPI released consecutively, the Federal Reserve faces two critical days
A hotter-than-expected PPI is like throwing a stone into a crowd, instantly revealing four faces.
US August PPI year-on-year at 5.4%, exceeding expectations, raising rate hike expectations again. BTC clings to 78,000 with four consecutive drops, gritting teeth to hold on; HYPE falls about 2% back to 84, high beta first to shrink its neck; XAU spot gold instead rises over 1%, retaking 4,400, quietly pleased; DOGE lies at 0.09, playing dead.
One data point reflects four types of chips: the leader is supported (50-day just golden crossed 200-day), high beta is the first to lose leverage, gold is the true winner of inflation (the hotter the data, the more people buy it to hedge), the unpopular meme coin doesn't even bother to fluctuate.
If tomorrow night’s CPI remains hot, XAU’s face will smile the longest, HYPE will have to shrink again, BTC will test 77,000; if CPI cools down, the stubborn BTC and shrinking HYPE will rebound fastest, gold will give back gains at high levels, DOGE will still be just a background prop.
The same rain, some dodge it, some catch it, some pretend to sleep—first, find your seat.Once the PPI was released, the market sentiment shifted again. The U.S. PPI rose about 5.4% year-on-year in August. Although the core PPI monthly rate was only 0.2%, below market expectations, overall inflationary pressure still made traders more cautious about Fed rate hikes. CME federal funds futures show the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September has risen from about 65% to 70%, and the market has even started trading the possibility of further hikes in October. This is clearly bad news for BTC and ETH. The higher the rate expectation, the tighter the dollar liquidity, and the more funds tend to return to dollar assets, naturally putting pressure on highly volatile crypto assets. More notably, Levit mining pool founder Jiang Zhuoer has publicly stated that the probability of a rate hike has risen to 70%, and CPI is not expected to be positive, and he is preparing to short. But the real question now is not who to go long or short, but whether tomorrow's CPI can reverse market expectations. If CPI remains hot, rate hike trading may heat up further, and BTC's pressure around $80,000 will increase significantly; Conversely, if CPI falls short of expectations, the current hawkish pricing may quickly loosen. So this time, what will determine BTC's direction may not be the candlestick chart, but the CPI. $BTC $ETH #PPI. CPI releases consecutively, Fed faces critical two-day #BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负 🔥 $BTC / $ETH / $SOL | THREE DIFFERENT DEFINITIONS OF STRENGTH
$BTC gets stronger when trust in its monetary rules gets stronger.
$ETH gets stronger when more economic activity needs programmable settlement
$SOL gets stronger when blockchain becomes fast enough to feel like normal internet infrastructure
That’s the deeper difference
BTC is optimizing credibility.
ETH is optimizing coordination
SOL is optimizing execution
Different problems. Different architectures. Different paths to valuePPI indeed exploded, and the rate hike added fuel to the fire, the 78000 defense battle has begun
#PPI、CPI接连公布，美联储迎关键两日
Data released at 8:30, straightforward and blunt: August PPI year-on-year 5.4%, expected 5.3%, previous value only 4.7%, accelerating beyond expectations; core PPI month-on-month 0.4%, also higher than expected. Energy is the main driver, translated into plain language — inflation is rising again, the Fed's backbone for a September rate hike is stronger.
Market reaction was instantaneous. The 30-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.34%, a new high since 2007; US crude oil broke 100, Brent crude broke 105; gold plunged 1.7%, US stock futures and A50 all turned red, interest rate futures immediately increased bets on rate hikes, this combination is a standard bearish signal for risk assets
BTC was already grinding at the 78000 level for four days, pressure is even more real after the data release, 140,000 people have been liquidated in the past two days, bulls are now focusing on the lifeline at 77000, a volume break below means a drop to 75000 for support. ETH fell 2% back to 2450, 2400 is the next hurdle, high-beta altcoins like SOL and DOGE will fall even harder.
But don't be overly pessimistic: this time the year-on-year slightly exceeded expectations, month-on-month just hit the line, it's hawkish but not a nuclear bomb, the real big test is tomorrow night's CPI. Likely to fluctuate and digest from tonight to tomorrow, chasing shorts or bottom fishing is not worthwhile, wait for CPI and next week's FOMC to set the direction. Remember one thing: if 77000 holds, there's still hope; if it doesn't, control your hands.