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Data divergence before the non-farm payrolls, the September rate hike suspense is at its peak. The latest two sets of US data have posed a dilemma for the market. The August ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 55.6 to 54.6, below the expected 55.2, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing expansion; however, the prices paid index remains high at 71.1, showing inflationary pressure has not significantly eased. The labor market also appears stable on the surface but is cooling internally. July JOLTS job openings recorded 7.271 million, higher than the revised 6.182 million in June, but hires decreased by 278,000 to 5.054 million, indicating companies are not conducting large-scale layoffs but are increasingly reluctant to hire. The real trouble is that rising oil prices continue to push up inflation expectations, with US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthening simultaneously. The market's pricing for a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September has risen to about 66%–68%, and the 10-year Treasury yield once approached 4.8%. Risk assets have started to come under pressure, with the three major US stock indices all closing lower, the Nasdaq down about 1%; BTC is also fluctuating repeatedly around $78,000. The most critical event next is the August non-farm payrolls release at 20:30 Beijing time on September 4. If employment is too strong, it will further reinforce rate hike expectations; if employment weakens significantly, it will trigger concerns about economic cooling. For BTC, in the short term, it is no longer simply a case of "bad data means a rise," but rather a need to simultaneously watch how the dollar, US Treasury yields, and rate hike probabilities are repriced. Personally, I will focus on the support strength around $78,000. Before the non-farm payrolls release, chasing gains or panic selling is risky Feeling the profits are unstable
Looks like it dropped a bit
But the pullback was too fast
$BTC didn't drop below 76000
So it didn't break the support level
Clearly still an uptrend
Not really daring to add more short positions
Just holding this short position for now
This one was opened at 78662
Now around 77600
Floating profit is already over 1200U
Logically this position should be comfortable
But every time it dips these past two days
The buy orders below are filled very quickly
A truly weak market wouldn't give so many rebound chances
Before losing 76000
It looks more like a high-level shakeout in an uptrend
So the short position can be held
But definitely not chasing to add more
If it really stands back above 78200
I'll start protecting profits
$XAUT recently seems like an amplifier of risk-off sentiment
With geopolitical risks combined
Funds immediately flow to gold
It keeps strong
Indicating the market hasn't fully relaxed its vigilance yet
Small-cap coins like $BICO are more about liquidity
When BTC drops suddenly, it tends to amplify volatility
But on a rebound, it might suddenly pull back
Now is not the time to heavily bet on direction
I'll keep holding this $BTC short position
With profits, just hold for now
But if 76000 doesn't break
I absolutely won't turn a short-term short into a dead short!
#BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 Analyzing the K-line chart — over the past month, BTC has risen steadily from around 63,500 to 77,000, while ETH surged from 1,880 to 2,400.
ETH's increase is more aggressive, indicating that market funds are gradually increasing their risk exposure. However, both still have room before reaching their yearly highs; currently, it looks more like a consolidation after a rebound rather than a true trend breakout.
The logic for BTC is relatively simple: fixed supply + institutional allocation, with the core purchase driven by scarcity and market consensus. ETH is much more complex, with stablecoins, DeFi, and L2 forming a complete ecosystem. When liquidity warms up, funds usually flow to BTC first, and only when risk appetite further increases does ETH's elasticity truly release.
The macro environment remains challenging: interest rate at 3.75%, inflation at 2.5%, unemployment at 4.1%. Expectations of rate cuts can support valuations, but as long as inflation and the dollar fluctuate again, the market will remain under pressure.
My judgment is simple: BTC for direction, ETH for odds. With easing expectations strengthening, ETH is more likely to outperform; if macro tightens again, BTC is relatively more resilient.
No need to overthink it, just take what you need.
#Pre-nonfarm data divergence, September rate hike expectations heat up
#Robinhood on-chain volume surges, crypto-stock Meme sparks controversy
$BTC $ETH $SOL 5 Quick Takes on Today's Market
Quick Take 1: Oil Prices Are the Main Director
Brent crude oil broke through $96.56/barrel today, up 2% intraday, with a cumulative surge of 51% year-to-date.
What does 51% mean? If you bought oil for 1 million at the start of the year, it’s now 1.51 million.
The bond market crashed first, who’s next?
Oil prices are the "main director" of this global asset repricing round. It’s not the Fed, not Trump, it’s oil.
Quick Take 2: Global Bond Markets Are Undergoing a "Rate Reset"
The US 10-year Treasury yield is 4.798%. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield hit 3%, the highest in 30 years since 1996. The UK 10-year government bond yield is 5.255%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis.
Germany’s 10-year yield also surged to its highest since 2011.
This is not a problem of any single country. This is a global rate reset.
Borrowing costs are soaring, and global governments’ interest expenses are exploding. The "dry wood" accumulated from fiscal stimulus has been ignited by the Iran conflict.
The cash you hold is being squeezed from both inflation and rising interest rates.
Quick Take 3: BTC Falls Below 77,000 — Why Doesn’t It Rise Amid War?
Bitcoin dropped to a low of $76,454 today.
Some ask: Shouldn’t safe-haven assets rise during war?
Wrong. The current market logic is: "Oil price up → inflation up → Fed rate hikes" → all risk assets come under pressure.
BTC’s safe-haven attribute is temporarily overshadowed by "rate hike fears."
It’s not that Bitcoin is weak; the macro narrative is just too strong.
Quick Take 4: 66% Chance of Fed Rate Hike in September, Two Weeks to Decide
The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has surged to 66%.
Before the speech by Waller at Jackson Hole on August 28, this number was just over 30%.
It doubled in less than a week.
September 11 CPI data + September 15 FOMC meeting = the most important macro window of 2026 in the next two weeks. No contest.
CPI beats expectations → rate hike → risk assets crash.
CPI misses expectations → no rate hike → risk assets rebound.
That simple. And that brutal.
Quick Take 5: Only Two Scenarios
If oil prices stay above $90, inflation expectations will heat up further.
BTC’s next script has only two options:
Scenario A: Bottom near 77,000, wait for macro reversal → get through it, and it’s spring.
Scenario B: Continue to fall with risk assets → another drop ahead.
Which way? Watch the September 11 CPI.
Before then, all moves are guesses.
The bond market has already crashed.
Oil prices keep rising.
The rate hike probability keeps climbing.
Before September 11, hold your hands, don’t act rashly.
$BTC $BZ $XAU #霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注 Is $FIL about to revive?
The price rebounded from about $0.6 in August and has recently risen again.😱
Let's first figure out what this thing really is.
You can think of it as a "worldwide shared cloud storage": some people provide hard drives to store files, others pay to rent space. FIL is the token used in this cloud storage—for payments, collateral, and rewards.
Before, everyone compared: whether the hard drives were big enough and the data stored was enough.
Now the official stance has changed: it depends on whether people actually pay monthly.
The warehouses are already large; what's missing are tenants.
When tenants come and money flows on-chain, this coin gains more confidence.
Just stacking empty warehouses with no rent paid makes it hard for the price to improve long-term.
So what does buying $FIL mean?
It’s a bet on whether this decentralized cloud storage can transform from an "experimental project" into a "business that collects rent."
If it succeeds, then it looks like a revival. If not, it remains a cheap but empty warehouse.
A two-day price increase doesn’t equal revival. What really matters is whether there are continuous paying users coming in afterwards.
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
#Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议
#财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 BTC and ETH face macro pressure
$BTC hovers between $77,000 and $78,000, while $ETH holds around $2,400. The pressure is no longer driven solely by US-Iran tensions; a tighter financial environment adds another layer of resistance
Brent crude oil prices exceed $95, 10-year Treasury yields approach 4.81%, and the market prices in about a 67% chance of a rate hike in September
This is a troubling combination for risk assets. For $BTC, $76,000 to $77,000 remains key support. Holding this range could stabilize market sentiment; once broken, it may accelerate selling pressure.When everyone is panicking, whales might be quietly accumulating
Oil prices have risen to $95, bond markets are crashing, the probability of a rate hike has surged to 65%, BTC has dropped from 81,000 to 77,000——
Seeing these headlines together, are you panicking?
If you are, congratulations, you’re a normal person.
But normal people usually don’t make money in the crypto market.
On September 1, the US launched a new round of airstrikes against Iran. Brent crude oil rose 4.5% in two days, breaking through $94 and approaching $95.
Global bond markets crashed simultaneously—Germany’s 10-year government bond yield hit the highest since 2011, the UK’s the highest since 2008, Japan’s the highest since 1996. The US 10-year Treasury yield soared to 4.8%, a new high since January 2025.
The probability of a Fed rate hike in September jumped from just over 30% before Waller’s speech to 66%.
Oil prices have risen 51% year-to-date.
All traditional market signals are telling you one thing: run.
Bitcoin rose 24% in August, marking its best monthly performance since November 2024. It once surged to $81,500, a 15-week high.
Then what? After Waller’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, BTC fell below $78,000. It is currently fluctuating between $77,000 and $79,000.
ETF funds also showed issues—after nine consecutive days of net inflows, on September 1 there was a net outflow of $202 million. Yesterday (September 2) continued with a $236 million outflow.
On the surface, it looks like: the good news is all out, it can’t rise anymore, time to run.
But—note this “but”—
On-chain data tells a completely opposite story.
CryptoQuant data shows that in the past 60 days, addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC have net accumulated 73,300 BTC, the highest since April 21.
Wallets holding over 10,000 BTC increased their holdings by 43,300 BTC in the same period.
What does this mean?
At $77,000 per BTC, these whales have quietly bought over $9 billion worth of Bitcoin in the past two months.
You see headlines panicking, they are silently absorbing the supply.
On September 2, a whale address starting with 0xe2ad executed the first order of a preset $60 million buying plan.
At an average price of $76,499, it bought 121.53 BTC, worth about $9.3 million.
Moreover, this address has 17 unfilled limit orders, planning to continue buying 671 BTC in the price range of $75,479 to $76,245, with a total value of about $50.88 million.
See that?
Retail investors are panic selling, whales are placing buy orders at $75,000–$76,000.
Who is absorbing whose supply?
The Fear & Greed Index has dropped from 81 last week to 62. Market sentiment is cooling, retail investors are panicking.
But the number of whale wallets hit a 6-month high in August, with 90 addresses holding at least 10,000 BTC.
Retail is selling, whales are buying.
This is no coincidence. This is the classic crypto market script—always the same.
So how "real" is this round of macro panic?
Honestly, it’s quite scary.
If oil prices stay above $90, inflation pressure will spread from energy to broader consumer goods prices. Among the Fed’s preferred inflation indicators, 54% of commodity prices have year-over-year increases exceeding 3%, far above the 32% historical average.
The CPI data on September 11 and the Fed meeting on September 16—two major bombs waiting to explode.
If CPI exceeds expectations, if the Fed really hikes rates, the market might drop again.
These risks are real; I’m not trying to fool you by saying "it’s nothing."
But what is the core of contrarian thinking?
It’s not ignoring risk, it’s judging whether the risk is already priced in.
Oil at $95—the market already knows.
Rate hike probability at 66%—the market already knows.
Bond market crash—the market already knows.
All these "bad news" are already priced in.
So what hasn’t been priced in?
September 11 CPI might show controlled inflation—that’s not priced in.
Oil price spike might be a geopolitical flash event, then ease as the situation calms—that’s not priced in.
Whales buying $9 billion BTC in the past 60 days—that’s even less priced in.
In March 2020, when the pandemic broke out, US stocks circuit-breakered, Bitcoin dropped 40% in one day. Everyone was selling.
Whales were buying.
In November 2022, FTX collapsed, Bitcoin dropped to $15,000. Everyone said "crypto is dead."
Whales were buying.
In August 2024, Japan’s rate hike triggered global carry trade unwinding, Bitcoin flash crashed to $49,000. Everyone panicked.
Whales were buying.
Then what?
Every time, it bounced back.
Not because whales are smarter, but because whales can endure panic better.
Contrarian doesn’t mean blind.
The current strategy is simple——
First, don’t be scared by headlines. Oil prices, bond markets, rate hikes—these are noise, not signals.
Second, watch on-chain data. Whales buying means someone thinks this price is not expensive.
Third, before the September 11 CPI data is released, buy in batches with light positions. Save your bullets for after uncertainty dissipates.
The most panic-filled moments often correspond to the best value entry points.
But the premise is—you must have bullets.
"Be greedy when others are fearful"—everyone can recite this.
But few can truly do it.
Because greed is not a strategy, it’s a counter-human nature ability.
When everyone in your group is shouting "run!"
When your Twitter feed is full of "Bitcoin will drop to 60,000"
When you see your account’s unrealized losses and start trembling—
Ask yourself:
Are you doing what 90% of people are doing?
If yes, you’re probably losing money.
$BTC $CL $BZ #霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注 [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Why did Robinhood Chain suddenly become popular? On-chain DEX trading volume surpassed $2 billion, rising 61% in one month, and on August 31 alone, it hit $1.49 billion, directly ranking second among all chains. It's like Pharaoh suddenly discovering a spring in the desert—no one expected such speed.
Where did the volume come from? It's not that retail investors suddenly understood DeFi; it's that the "crypto-stock pairing" Meme has created a new twist.
Simply put, this gameplay means the liquidity pool for Meme coins no longer pairs with ETH or USDC, but with tokenized stocks. You buy a Meme coin called AI, and on the other side of the pool is NVDA token. Buying the Meme coin simultaneously means indirectly buying NVDA. Suddenly, you become a "stockholder."
The controversy lies here.
The liquidity pools of Meme players directly lock the supply of on-chain stock tokens. During the weekend when the US stock market was closed, the HIMS token once traded at a 112% premium over the NYSE closing price. The essence of this is—"the scarcity of stock tokens is not determined by real stock supply and demand, but by how FOMO the Meme players are."
What does Pharaoh think? Robinhood Chain's approach indeed activated RWA liquidity, but it feels more like an experiment of "Meme hijacking stocks." It's fun, but don't mistake Meme-driven premiums for value discovery. $ETH $BTC $ARB #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 The escalation of the US-Iran conflict has caused $CL oil prices to surge dramatically, intensifying market fears of inflation and sharply increasing expectations of interest rate hikes; this very logic has led to a steep decline in risk assets, and gold, as a non-yielding asset, has also been affected.
So when will risk assets led by BTC warm up? A key indicator is oil prices.
Only when oil prices fall will market panic over inflation subside, shifting the logic from trading inflation and rate hikes to trading high-risk preference assets; the saying among experts that "when crude oil falls, all things thrive" reflects this principle.
#霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注
@OKX星球 [Breaking Analysis] Is the Bitcoin Bull Market Confirmed? Follow the Trend and Buy the Dip!
Today, I’m going to make a bold statement (don’t hate if you disagree): The cycle model (Figure 1) shows that the 20-month major cycle bottom for Bitcoin was finally confirmed in early July. How does the Hurst cycle determine the bottom? For example, to confirm the bottom of the 20-month major cycle, we look at the next lower cycle, the 40-week fld line. When the 40-week fld line crosses above and holds above the K-line, it means the 20-month major cycle bottom has formed (see the green line and red circle in Figure 1). Of course, if the price later falls below the fld line and breaks to a new low forming a lower bottom, then this 20-month major cycle bottom is invalidated.
At least for now, the formation of the 20-month major cycle bottom means the start of a long upward cycle. This also implies that this bear market is a shallow one, with large institutions entering the market, reducing Bitcoin’s volatility, and bringing the bull market earlier than expected.
This is a bold analysis, and many may not understand it. I remain open to different viewpoints. If a new low forms later and the bottom is invalidated, I will admit my mistake.
But one important point is that bull markets often arise amid divergence, continue amid doubt, and collapse amid consensus.
Before the 20-month major cycle bottom is invalidated, I tend to view the upward trend as the main direction. So the trading strategy becomes mainly buying on dips, with selling on highs as a secondary approach. If you don’t believe the cycle model’s prediction, that’s fine; responding to the market is more important than predicting it.
With the main strategy set, here is the short-term operation plan.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin may have completed waves 1, 2, and 3, and is currently in wave 4. Wave 4 often shows complex and tangled movement, and after correction, usually leads to wave 5, as shown in Figure 2.
Therefore, in the short term, you can buy at the low point of wave 4. Measuring from the lows of waves 1 and 3, the improved Fibonacci retracement support level is between 74,500 and 75,500. This can be considered strong support. If the market provides an opportunity and the price falls to this range, consider buying to capture the upward wave 5. Early September is the 20-day minor cycle bottom; watch if the market offers an opportunity.
October, the end of this year, and early next year are still cycle bottoms and remain good times to add to spot positions.
In my personal trades, I advised caution and partial profit-taking on short positions at 78,200 tonight, with limited profits. But the Link long positions I shared in the group a few days ago have performed well, as shown in Figures 3 and 4.
Defensive trading: My style is to take opportunities when they arise and patiently wait when they don’t, without over-focusing on trend predictions. If there are profits, I move stop-losses to lock in partial gains. We have many positions, many of which quickly become profitable with a high win rate, so there’s no need to be greedy.
Current personal position status (all operations announced in advance):
Spot: 63,000 worth of Bitcoin, 1,800–1,900 worth of Ethereum, 60+ Circle, 140+ Coin.
I usually buy in batches, keep cash ready, and add more at cycle bottoms like October and the end of this year or early next year.
Spot purchases may be locked for a considerable time, but you sow in the bear market and reap in the bull market.
All the above is based on cycle model theoretical values; actual results may vary. Please think independently. These are personal views and operations and do not constitute any trading advice. September is already starting with serious volatility. Renewed U.S.–Iran hostilities have pushed global risk sentiment lower, with oil climbing above $95 and investors moving toward safer assets. Bitcoin briefly fell toward the $76K area and is now hovering around $77K, while Ethereum remains below $2,400. The bigger concern isn't just the crypto sell-off. Higher oil prices → higher inflation pressure → higher bond yields → tougher conditions for risk assets. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has Is the bull market really starting? The signals I've been watching have basically never failed in past cycles.
Earlier, I actually talked about $BTC's 50-week moving average, but after reviewing the history again these past couple of days, I think we need to add another indicator: 50 Week MA + Weekly Supertrend.
Looking at these two together is much more interesting than just focusing on 80,000, ETF inflows, or how much it rose on a certain day.
Let's look at the past first.
In October 2015, $BTC reclaimed the 50-week moving average around $280, and then the Weekly Supertrend also completed a long-term bullish flip.
Everyone knows what happened next.
$BTC went from a few hundred dollars all the way to nearly $20,000 in 2017. That round of the real bull market started gradually from this stage.
Galaxy's historical statistics also show that after reclaiming the 50W MA in 2015, the price stayed above this line for 135 consecutive weeks.
After BTC dropped to over $3,000 at the end of 2018, it reclaimed the 50W MA again in May 2019, when the price was about $5,800.
Just over a month later, BTC surged to nearly $14,000, more than doubling.
The 2022 bear market was even more typical. BTC bottomed at just over $15,000, the Weekly Supertrend flipped bullish again at the start of 2023, and then in March BTC officially reclaimed the 50-week moving average around $28,000.
A year later, BTC had already broken through the previous all-time high of $69,000.
There is a detail here I find very critical.
Looking at the 50W MA alone, it is not 100% accurate.
Because at the end of 2021 and in March 2022, BTC briefly reclaimed the 50-week moving average, but ultimately continued to fall.
At that time, the Weekly Supertrend did not simultaneously complete a true long-term bullish flip.
This is why I no longer look at any single line alone, but always combine these two indicators:
➡️ 50W MA to judge whether BTC has crossed the long-term bear market resistance again.
➡️ Weekly Supertrend to determine if this breakout has truly formed a long-term trend.
In past cycles when the market truly switched from bear to bull, these two signals basically resonated together. Conversely, the few false 50W MA breakouts in 2021–2022 were not confirmed by the Weekly Supertrend.
So looking back at now, it’s very interesting.
Recently, BTC surged from over 60,000 to above 80,000, reaching a high of $81,265.
At that time, the 50-week moving average was around $81,000–82,000.
It almost touched it.
But it ultimately didn’t hold, the weekly candle closed back below, and now BTC is back near $78,000; the Weekly Supertrend still hasn’t fully flipped bullish.
So my current judgment on this round is simple: the bull market has not officially started yet.
It looks more like it’s oscillating just below this last layer of long-term resistance. As I said before, I still expect a dip before a healthier rise...
But if BTC can truly hold above the 50W MA on the weekly chart, with the Weekly Supertrend flipping bullish, and then hold on a retest after the breakout—
I will take this signal very seriously.
Because past cycles have told us the same thing: once the bear market ends and these two long-term indicators both turn bullish, it’s usually no longer just a rebound of a few dozen percent.
It starts to be measured in years for the next phase.
So whether $BTC is at 77,000 or 79,000 right now, I’m not so worried.
What I really want to see is when it can truly cross both lines near 81,000 together.
If it really holds this time, then the area around 60,000 might very well be the last bear market bottom we see this cycle.
I’m also preparing to add this trendline to our observation indicators to help everyone with investment decisions.
In one sentence: invest scientifically, everyone stay tuned...The logic behind the decline of a basket of semiconductor stocks including $MRVL, $ORCL, $COHR on 09/01 is actually very clear
US-Iran conflict escalates again → crude oil rises → inflation expectations heat up → market increases bets on Fed rate hike in September → global bond sell-off, long-term yields surge → high-valuation assets like AI/semiconductors get devalued
1/ Honestly, these are not things ordinary people can predict.
1. US-Iran clashes resume, oil prices suddenly rise
2. Then global bond sell-off occurs
The market pricing for a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September has risen to about 65%–70%
3. Fed Governor Michael Barr spoke clearly:
If inflation does not sufficiently ease, the Fed should "raise rates decisively."
2/ Why semiconductors fell more than the broader market
Semiconductor valuations are based on profits from 2028–2030; discounted cash flow calculations make future profits discounted to today less valuable
High-valuation, high-volatility internet-related stocks are the easiest to be sold first
3/ Reviewing the year’s decline
For example, $MRVL, in 2026 this stock’s every big rise and fall is driven by multiples rather than fundamentals. Multiples mean stock price divided by earnings per share, commonly called P/E ratio, meaning how many dollars you are willing to pay today for one dollar the company earns in a year
From the June 4 high of 316.43 to the July 29 low of 163.40, it dropped 48%, while the market’s consensus for next year’s earnings per share only moved from 6.08 to 6.18. From July 29 to August 20, it rose 54%, with expectations moving only 1%. From June 4 to August 31, the stock price fell 33%, earnings expectations rose 9%, and the multiple dropped 39%
I am currently writing a fundamental article on $MRVL as of September, providing three points of upside potential based on current research for reference; the full article will be published later $ETH $BTC $LAB
Bitcoin fell below $77,000, hitting a low of $76,762; Ethereum dropped below $2,400, closing at $2,395. In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations totaling $315 million, with long positions accounting for $251 million.
1: US-Iran conflict triggers risk-off sell-off
The US military launched airstrikes targeting the Revolutionary Guard within Iran, which responded with missile counterattacks. Trump warned that the next round of strikes would be "stronger and at a higher level." Brent crude surged 4.6% to $94.65, and WTI crude rose 5.2%. The spike in oil prices pushed inflation expectations higher, US Treasury yields climbed, risk assets came under broad pressure, and the S&P 500 fell to its lowest since August 4.
2: Interest rate hike expectations weigh down
The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has risen to 66.4%. Although Bitcoin surged 25% in August, it now faces multiple headwinds in September, including rate hikes, rising oil prices, and resistance in the $80,000-$86,000 range.
3: ETF funds show significant divergence
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $236 million yesterday, with BlackRock's IBIT leading single-day outflows at $201 million. Ethereum spot ETFs had a net inflow of $8.6 million, marking 17 consecutive days of net inflows. Institutional funds are clearly rotating from Bitcoin to Ethereum.
Bitcoin near $77,100 still has spot and ETF demand support, but on-chain structure is weak, and holders continue to take profits. If geopolitical tensions worsen, Bitcoin could test $70,000; if the conflict eases and spot demand dominates, it may replicate the 2023 bottoming breakout pattern. $BTC $ETH $LAB
Bitcoin fell below $77,000, hitting a low of $76,762; Ethereum lost the $2,400 level, closing at $2,395. In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations totaling $315 million, with long positions accounting for $251 million.
1: US-Iran Conflict Triggers Risk-Off Selling
The US military launched airstrikes targeting the Revolutionary Guard inside Iran, which retaliated with missile attacks. Trump warned that the next round of strikes would be "stronger and at a higher level." Brent crude surged 4.6% to $94.65, and WTI crude rose 5.2%. The spike in oil prices pushed up inflation expectations, US Treasury yields climbed, risk assets came under broad pressure, and the S&P 500 dropped to its lowest since August 4.
2: Rate Hike Expectations Weigh
The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has risen to 66.4%. Although Bitcoin surged 25% in August, it now faces multiple headwinds in September, including rate hikes, rising oil prices, and resistance in the $80,000–$86,000 range.
3: ETF Funds Show Significant Divergence
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $236 million yesterday, with BlackRock's IBIT leading single-day outflows at $201 million. Ethereum spot ETFs had a net inflow of $8.6 million, marking 17 consecutive days of inflows, indicating a clear rotation of institutional funds from Bitcoin to Ethereum.
Bitcoin near $77,100 still has spot and ETF demand support, but on-chain structure is weak, and holders continue to take profits. If geopolitical tensions worsen, Bitcoin could test $70,000; if the conflict eases and spot demand dominates, it may replicate the 2023 bottoming and breakout pattern. Crude oil surged to 90, the 10-year US Treasury yield hit 4.796% intraday (a new high since January 2025), and the probability of a rate hike in September has been repriced to over 66% — the chain of oil price → inflation → rate hike is like a knife held at the neck of risk assets.
Bitcoin: The bearish logic hasn't changed since the surge above 81,500. Now stuck around 77k, several moving averages are exerting resistance, the bearish alignment remains, and the volume-heavy drop in the early morning saw the main players exit faster than anyone else. The script is simple:
Hold 75-75.5k and then reclaim 79-80k, which would be a strong resistance against macro pressure from three sides, giving bulls something to work with;
If it decisively breaks below 75k, leverage will trigger a chain liquidation, heading straight for the major support at 70-72k for a deep cleanse.
Ethereum: Last night it spiked to 2381, with the 2400 level effectively broken, turning support into resistance. Below, only the old liquidity between 2200-2300 remains. The rhythm remains "Bitcoin hasn't stopped falling, Ethereum takes the hit first."
In short: Macro conditions are like a pressure cooker, technicals show bearish alignment plus volume-driven sell-off. Until the 75k and 2400 levels are effectively reclaimed, any rebound should be treated as a downward continuation, so don't rush to mistake a bounce for a reversal. $BTC $ETH $BTC failed to break through $80,000. Is the next key support level to hold at $77,000?
This morning, Bitcoin's price was still near $78,000, but selling pressure intensified afterward, and it has now dropped to the $77,000 range.
Not only did it fail to retake $80,000, but the price was pushed back to around $77,000 again. Bitcoin has reached a very critical short-term juncture.
This decline is not just due to profit-taking sell-offs.
Concerns about domestic inflation in the U.S. have intensified, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbing to 4.81%. The market believes the likelihood of a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting has increased, which is bearish for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Additionally, tensions in the Middle East are rising, pushing oil prices higher.
Higher oil prices → increased inflation concerns → rising interest rates
This chain of logic is suppressing Bitcoin's upward momentum.
So, will Bitcoin continue to fall from here?
There is an indicator to watch: ETF fund flows.
The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $201.9 million on August 28; on September 1, funds flowed back in with a net inflow of $216.7 million.
However, after the latest data revision, the inflow on September 1 was adjusted downward, confirming that the momentum of capital entering the market is not as strong as before.
To summarize the current situation:
Bitcoin's price is retreating, ETF buying strength is weakening, and market concerns about U.S. rate hikes are intensifying. $FIL dropped from $237 to $0.8, a cumulative decline of over 99.7%
The fundamental bearish factors are:
Tokenomics fatal flaw — annual inflation as high as 18%~21%, total supply expanding to nearly 2 billion tokens, miners forced to sell daily, early investors continuously unlocking at low cost, creating permanent selling pressure;
Severe supply-demand imbalance — storage capacity exceeds 23 EiB, but actual paid usage rate is only 0.43%, mostly junk data, not adopted by enterprises;
Ecosystem confidence collapse — STFIL project encountered issues, the Shipyard team responsible for IPFS maintenance will cease operations in September 2026 due to funding interruption; security vulnerabilities have caused node risks. Multiple structural problems overlap, making any rebound difficult to sustain.On September 2nd, BTC fell below $77,000, hitting a low of $76,762. It dropped 2.4% in 24 hours, with over $115 million long positions liquidated in just one hour.
In August, it rose 25%, marking the third-best August performance in history. But on the first day of September, it was immediately knocked back to reality.
Why the drop? Three major negative factors hit simultaneously—
Geopolitical risk: US-Iran military tensions escalated. On September 1st, the US launched airstrikes on IRGC targets inside Iran, which was followed by missile retaliation from Iran. Trump warned, "The next round of strikes will be stronger."
Inflation risk: Brent crude oil rose 4.5% over two days, with a year-to-date increase of 51%. On September 2nd, Brent topped $95 per barrel. Oil prices are cornering global bond markets—US Treasury yields surged to 4.798%, the highest since January 2025; Germany’s 10-year bond yields hit their highest since 2011; Japan’s yields broke 3% for the first time in 30 years.
Policy risk: CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate hike in September has soared to 66.9%. After the Jackson Hole speech, this figure nearly doubled.
A triple blow, all happening at once.
$76,454: Recent low. Holding this level would form a short-term double bottom.
$77,000-$78,000: Current consolidation range. BTC was knocked down from here today.
$80,000: August high. Breaking through requires macro support—that is, favorable CPI data plus cooling rate hike expectations.
If $76,000 breaks: The next support lies between $73,000-$74,000. Below that, $72,000 aligns with the 200-day moving average.
In short: $76,000 is the current bottom line for bulls. If it doesn’t hold, support will be sought at $74,000 or even $72,000.
For profitable long positions: Move stop-loss up to just below $75,500. Don’t let unrealized gains turn into losses. The market can give you profits, but can also take them away in a second.
For trapped long positions: Assess position size. If leverage is too high, consider reducing exposure. Wait for the CPI data on September 11th before making decisions. Don’t gamble before the data.
For those out of the market wanting to enter: It’s recommended to wait for the CPI data release or lightly test longs near $76,000. Now is not the time to go all in.
For contract traders: Volatility is extremely high. A 2.4% drop in one hour liquidated $115 million in longs. It’s advised to reduce leverage to below 3x. Staying alive is more important than making money.
September 11th → CPI data release. This is the first key turning point. If CPI exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate hike could surge to 80%.
September 15-16 → Federal Reserve meeting. The ultimate variable. If a rate hike happens, how will the market react? If not, what then? No one knows. But you can prepare in advance.
September is historically BTC’s weakest month. In the past 13 Septembers, it closed down 8 times, with an average return of -2.97%, the worst month of the year.
When BTC rose 25% in August, everyone thought the bull was back.
On the first day of September, it dropped 2.4%, and everyone started asking, "Is it going to crash?"
The market hasn’t changed. What changed is your emotion.
The three major negative factors are real. But what comes after the negatives? Opportunity.
The word crisis has two sides: danger and opportunity.
The key question is—are you ready?
$BTC $CL $XAU #霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注 Today $BTC is around 77,700 USD, down about 0.3% in 24 hours, with an intraday low dipping to 76,400 USD before being pulled back by funds. BTC is not strong right now, but it hasn't completely broken down either. 76,400 USD is a short-term level to watch; only by reclaiming 78,500 USD can the market catch a breather.
$OKB is currently about 110.4 USD, having briefly dropped to 108.8 USD during the session. The previously mentioned 110 USD level is now being tested. If this level holds, OKB can still be considered range-bound.
Mainstream coins generally lack momentum today. $ETH fell about 1.2%, back near 2,420 USD; $SOL dropped 1.7%, just holding at 100 USD; $XRP fell 1.9%, and $DOGE also dropped about 1%. The simultaneous weakness in these coins indicates that funds are temporarily unwilling to broadly lift the market; the so-called “altcoin broad rally” has yet to truly appear.
Interestingly, some older coins are bucking the trend. $FIL rose about 13%, $UNI up 9.4%, $CRV up 4.8%, and $ARB up 2.6%. There is no new news fully explaining FIL’s gains this round; it’s more a technical breakout following a sudden volume surge, with the market conveniently reviving interest in decentralized storage and AI data demand.
The rise of UNI and ARB has a more coherent explanation: Robinhood Chain has seen recent active trading, Uniswap has captured more DEX volume, and Arbitrum benefits from infrastructure and revenue return expectations. CRV’s strength following suit shows that funds are indeed revisiting the old DeFi narrative.
Two other popular coins also reflect sentiment changes. $HYPE remains near 83 USD, basically flat; $PUMP fell about 3.7%. HYPE holding up indicates ongoing market interest in on-chain contracts and trading platforms. PUMP weakening suggests that hype purely driven by Meme issuance no longer excites funds as much as a few days ago.
Today’s money hasn’t fully exited; it’s selecting coins with sufficient liquidity, low prices, and compelling stories.
Just personal analysis, not investment advice
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 BTC fell below 77,000, why did the "digital gold" narrative fail amid the oil price storm?
The US and Iran are at it again.
On September 1, the US military launched airstrikes targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps inside Iran. Iran retaliated with missile drones. Trump warned, "The next strike will be stronger and at a higher level."
Brent crude oil rose 4.5% in two days, up 51% year-to-date, breaking through $96 per barrel.
War. Oil prices surge. Inflation is coming.
Isn't Bitcoin "digital gold"? Shouldn't it be rising?
Result: BTC dropped from an intraday high of $79,166 to as low as $76,762. $115 million long positions were liquidated within an hour.
Many are confused: war is happening, so why is the safe-haven asset falling?
Because you are using an outdated script to interpret a completely different play.
The narrative "Bitcoin is a safe-haven asset" is based on a specific logic:
Central banks print money → fiat currency depreciates → Bitcoin appreciates.
This logic was correct in 2020-2021. In the era of massive liquidity, all assets rose, with Bitcoin surging the most.
But now it's 2026.
The script is completely reversed:
Oil prices surge → inflation rises → Fed hikes interest rates → US dollar strengthens → all risk assets come under pressure.
In the face of "rate hike expectations," all non-yielding assets are victims—whether Bitcoin, gold, or that unopened sports card in your hand.
Spot gold was still at $4,697 on August 25, but has since fallen below $4,300. It dropped nearly $400 in less than a week.
Gold is also falling.
And it’s falling harder—with a decline exceeding 7%.
If you truly believe the "digital gold" narrative means BTC should move in tandem with gold, then tell me: when gold is falling, why should Bitcoin rise?
It’s not that the "digital gold" narrative has failed. Rather, the entire "non-yielding asset" sector is being collectively harvested by rate hike expectations.
On August 28, Fed Chair Powell delivered his most hawkish speech since taking office at Jackson Hole.
He said: if there is no confidence that inflation will return to 2%, the Fed "has more work to do."
In one sentence, the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 35% to 66%.
Today, CME FedWatch shows the probability of holding rates steady in September is only 33.1%, while the chance of a 25 basis point hike is 66.9%.
Just a week ago, this number was around 35%.
The market completed a thorough expectation reset in five days.
The Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of global oil transportation.
Now, supertankers passing through are extremely limited; on Monday, only five commodity transport ships crossed the waterway. Two oil tankers fully loaded with Saudi crude were attacked.
Iran’s crude oil exports plummeted from 2 million barrels per day in March to 220,000–255,000 barrels per day in August.
Supply is cut off. Prices must rise.
When oil prices rise, inflation rises. When inflation rises, the Fed must hike rates.
This is a logical chain, each link connected, with BTC stuck at the last link.
Bitcoin has never been a "universal safe-haven asset."
It only acts as a safe haven under specific conditions—when central banks are printing money.
When central banks tighten the faucet, Bitcoin, like all other risk assets, can only fall together.
Don’t blame Bitcoin. Blame yourself for treating it as an all-protective shield.
In the face of rate hikes, there is no digital gold, only digital risk assets.
The market is now focused on two key points:
September 11—August CPI data. If it’s below expectations, the probability of a rate hike falls, and BTC may violently rebound. If it exceeds expectations, the rate hike is confirmed, and BTC may further decline.
September 15-16—Fed meeting. Rate hike or not, the shoe drops.
The "digital gold" narrative is not dead.
It’s just temporarily overshadowed by "rate hike fear."
The wind will always stop. But you must ensure you’re still at the table.
Not every drop is doomsday. Sometimes, it’s just the market telling you—the story you’ve believed in might be more complicated than you think.
📌 Those who understand this logical chain won’t panic during a crash.
$BTC $CL $BZ #霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注 If you look beyond the headlines, the market is mainly reacting to rising expectations of a potential rate hike. But expectations aren’t reality.
Once September’s nonfarm payroll and CPI figures are released, I don’t expect Walsh and the Fed to have much justification for tightening policy.
For now, the most balanced stance is likely to stay on hold — neither raising nor cutting rates.
#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds
#RobinhoodChainRWAvsMemes
#DellAIServerBeat #Interest Rate Hike Expectations Double, Why Can't BTC Drop?
After Wash's speech, the CME interest rate hike probability doubled from 35%. Half a year ago, such a level of macro bearishness would have caused BTC to drop at least 5% initially. But this time, it dipped to a low of $77,396 and then bounced back.
It can't drop. Why?
A report from Bitfinex yesterday pointed out the key: this August rally was mainly driven by spot buying, not a leveraged illusion. Although open interest contracts are rising, the basis remains restrained—indicating longs are not borrowed money but real cash is being used to buy.
On-chain data also confirms this: whale addresses continue to accumulate, while retail addresses keep handing over chips. Big fish eating small fish, silently and steadily. $BTC
But on the ETF side, signals are mixed.
Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw nearly $1 billion net inflow, showing warm sentiment. But on Friday, suddenly $200 million ran out; on Monday, $200 million came back. Quick in and out, short-term funds are playing the macro window with no directional consensus.
So in the same market, three sets of data are conflicting:
· Interest rate hike probability at 65%, BTC didn't crash;
· Whales are buying, retail is selling;
· $ETH dropped on Friday, returned on Monday, a back-and-forth tug of war.
Some are selling, some are buying. Who has the stronger force? The data doesn't give a clear answer.
At this position, no movement.
Before the interest rate hike lands, don't chase highs, don't cut losses. The macro sword hangs overhead; chasing in is a gamble; the on-chain buying support means cutting out is foolish. Wait for clarity, let the data speak. $BTC $ETH $SOL No matter how tempting your account's unrealized gains are, they can't compete with Brent at $94 + 10-year US Treasury yield at 4.79% + 64% probability of a rate hike in September—these three are squeezing the life out of it. Did BTC rise 24% in August? Yes, it did. But last night, it was pulled back to 77k by the Iran situation and hawkish comments from Washington. Fear and greed dropped from 80 to 63 and it's still in the "greed zone"—until emotions clear out, it's not a true bottom.
ETFs are a buffer, not invincible shields: The $3.5 billion inflow in August is real, but on 8/28 there was a single-day withdrawal of $202 million, and on September 1, data sources conflict (some say $217 million inflow, others say $236 million outflow), indicating institutions are buying while adjusting their portfolios.
How to calculate "profit" in this environment? Don't count the numbers on the screen; consider if you can sleep through a 30% drawdown, how much BTC/ETH you hold in spot, and how much is in your withdrawal bank card. From 126k to 58k to 77k this round, those who survive are the ones who lowered leverage and kept cold wallets, not those shouting for tenfold gains. When macro turns cold, BTC first falls as a risk asset, then rises as a safe haven—if you get the order wrong, you catch the knife. #BTC high-level pullback, gold correlation under test #Crypto treasury expansion faces index qualification test #Japan long bond yield rises to high level Gold prices fell from 4599 to 4375 in just ten days, but some altcoins have dropped more than ten times worse than gold. Have you ever wondered what the market is really afraid of when both safe-haven assets and risk assets are sold off simultaneously? I've been a bit dazed watching the market these past two days. On one hand, gold has retreated nearly 5% from its historical high; on the other, TRUMP coin has plummeted from $75 to $1.76, evaporating 97%—the stories of nearly a million wallets quietly coming to an end. Let's talk about gold first. It dropped to 4375 on September 1st, superficially due to Walsh's hawkish stance suppressing rate cut expectations, but deeper down, the US-Iran situation pushed up crude oil prices, diverting safe-haven funds into energy. The market isn't abandoning gold; it's repricing the tug-of-war between inflation and interest rates. The 4400 level was broken, but if volume contracts and it stabilizes around 4350, this correction might just be a halftime break, not the final act. Now looking at BNB. It oscillated between 694 and 707, on-chain activity hasn't worsened, and quarterly burns are proceeding as scheduled. The 700 level has become the focal point of a tug-of-war between bulls and bears—holding on low volume leaves room for a resilient recovery; a volume-driven break below 690 would signal a deeper adjustment. Honestly, I think the market's expectations for BNB are already fairly priced in, and now it's just waiting for a directional confirmation. SOL is consolidating near 105; with V1 launching on September 9th plus rent reductions, the ecosystem is indeed making substantial progress. ETF net inflows and DeFi locked value form a dual mid-term support, but after rising too fast, the deviation rate is relatively high, and 100 is the defense level Dell has delivered another AI cash-printing machine level earnings report.
Revenue reached $47 billion, up 58% year-over-year, and net profit surged 255%, both far exceeding market expectations. AI-optimized servers generated $16.4 billion in quarterly revenue, with orders totaling $60.9 billion and backlog reaching $95 billion — customers are lining up to buy AI servers. Dell has raised its full-year AI server revenue forecast from $60 billion to $74 billion.
Traditional server and networking businesses also grew 122%, storage increased by 26%. Even the PC business grew 20%, offsetting memory costs through price hikes, with commercial customer revenue up 22% year-over-year. AI's impact on infrastructure is no longer just about selling GPU cards; the entire data center chain is transforming.
Tonight, Broadcom $AVGO and Snowflake $SNOW will also release their earnings.
Broadcom's AI semiconductor revenue was $10.8 billion in each of the first two quarters, with guidance for the third quarter at $16 billion and an expected full-year total of $56 billion. Six major core customers have already locked in capacity through 2028, indicating strong order certainty. On Snowflake's side, analysts expect Q2 revenue around $1.39 billion, up about 33% year-over-year; it is still losing money but the losses are narrowing. Dell $DELL has already proven that AI hardware demand remains strong. Whether this round of AI investment can expand from chip procurement to infrastructure and software will be partially answered by these two earnings reports.
#财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒 I wonder if anyone has noticed a contradictory phenomenon: the crypto market has been grinding with shrinking volume, but the macro situation outside has quietly changed.
Oil prices have stabilized above $95, and the 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to 4.81%, a level not seen in three years. Looking at the probability of a rate hike in September, it was still uncertain last week, but this week it has soared close to 70%.
Putting these things together, the logic is actually simple: inflation is not as easy to suppress as imagined, and the market's long-awaited rate cuts are becoming increasingly distant.
But looking back at Bitcoin, the previous rally was largely supported by expectations of rate cuts. Now that expectation is repeatedly being contradicted by reality, yet the coin price is still holding on. This is not so much market resilience as a disconnect between the market trend and fundamentals.
Some will say: haven't BTC and ETH's technical patterns not yet broken down?
Honestly, technical trends are results; by the time the chart clearly shows risk signals, it's already too late. What really needs early warning is market liquidity, and the signals of tightening are already obvious.
So there's no need to obsess daily over whether the market rises or falls in September. What really needs pondering is whether the underlying logic of this round of the market still holds.
The answer is not in all kinds of flashy on-chain data, just keep an eye on Powell's statements.
$BTC $ETH
#US Treasury yields rise #Crypto macro thinkingI have been analyzing the ETH 1H segment based on a box structure. Currently, the major oscillation range is approximately: 2390 to 2520. Today, the price has once again reached the lower boundary of the box, so I chose to open a long position around 2400. My logic is simple: previously, 2390 to 2400 has seen multiple supports, making this a clearly defined support zone on the current 1-hour timeframe. Therefore, this trade is not chasing a breakout but rather: taking a position at the lower boundary of the box to play for a support rebound. Currently, the price has returned to around 2418, temporarily moving away from my cost zone, but it is still far from showing strength. Next, I am focusing on three key levels: First target: 2440 to 2450, to see if the short-term rebound can continue. Second level: around 2485, which is an important boundary between bulls and bears. Only if the price reclaims 2485 will I consider that the bulls have regained control. Third level: 2515 to 2525, which is the top of the entire box and the critical point that will determine whether the price can break out of the oscillation range. Of course, the biggest risk for this long position is clear: there must be no effective break below 2390 to 2400. If the 1H chart breaks below 2390 and fails to quickly recover, and the rebound between 2390 and 2400 fails, then the entry logic for this trade is basically invalidated. So my current approach is not blindly bullish but rather: testing longs near 2400 at a low level, watching 2390 for defense, and observing rebound strength stepwise at 2440 and 2485. For now, I will let the market play out on its own.Crude oil prices have risen again. Why? Because the US and Iran have started fighting again, and whenever they fight, crude oil prices begin to rise. Not only are crude oil prices rising, but the entire crypto market is also crashing. In other words, as long as the US-Iran conflict intensifies, international oil prices will rise, and the crypto market will fall. So, should we go long on crypto or short on crypto now? Put another way, should we go long on crude oil or short on crude oil now? Personally, I think we should go long on crude oil and short on crypto now. —————————————————— If we look purely at crude oil contract data, we should actually be short. Let's look at the $CL contract data. We can see that as crude oil prices have surged significantly, the long-short ratio of contracts is falling, while the contract open interest is rising. This means there is a lot of capital shorting the market. This indicates one thing: the market does not believe the US-Iran conflict will continue to escalate. The market currently thinks the conflict between the US and Iran is only a small-scale skirmish and will not really erupt into a large-scale war. This is my inference based on market reactions. —————————————————— The market believes crude oil prices will fall, but I think they will rise further. Why? Because the midterm elections are approaching. Trump must resolve the Iran issue before the midterms, or he is destined to fail. Therefore, Trump is very likely to do something quite extreme. I don't know the specificsTim Cook handing Apple to John Ternus after a 15-year, $350B-to-$4.6T run reads as a corporate story — but the crypto angle is narrower: the App Store. Apple has been the single biggest gatekeeper on mobile crypto — the 30% cut, NFT limits, wallet and dApp restrictions. Now a hardware engineer runs the world's largest distribution rail. Don't price in a policy pivot, but who controls that rail matters more to crypto's mobile UX than most headlines admit.
#TernusSucceedsCook In the bearish rhythm before the 9/15 FOMC, with BTC at 79k–80k, what you can buy is not the "general altcoin rally," but a few with real revenue + catalysts + high Beta controllable. According to the "pullback order" strategy, currently worth putting into the watchlist:
• SOL (100–103): The elastic king of L1, with a record 4.2 billion on-chain transactions in July, Alpenglow upgrade + deflation expectations not fully realized; try long on pullback to 98–100, stop loss if breaks 94, watch 118 if it stands above 110.
• HYPE (Hyperliquid): August perpetual volume 114 billion USD, monthly fees 50 million USD, with buybacks and revenue, this is the "DEX chain with cash flow" this round; position has hit new highs, do not chase, wait for a 10–15% pullback to buy in batches, stop loss set in advance.
• LINK (Chainlink): RWA + oracle essential demand, spot ETF net inflows for 8 consecutive days (18.27 million USD in August), institutional line is the smoothest; buy low in the 11.0–11.6 support zone, turn to watch if breaks 10.8.
• UNI (5.8–6.0): Robinhood Chain feeding fees + UNIfication burn story is real, but 6.0 is overbought; wait for 5.5 or 4.8–5.0 to act, chasing above 6.0 is fueling a short squeeze.[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Everyone is asking Pharaoh: the non-farm payrolls for Friday haven't been released yet, but the market is already trembling. The probability of a September rate hike has surged from 35% to over 65%, and Bitcoin has been hammered down from 81,000 to hover around 77,000. The data hasn't landed yet, but expectations have already smashed the market.
First, let's talk about how divided the data is. July's non-farm payrolls decreased by 23,000, and previous months' data were significantly revised downward. In Q1, non-farm payrolls were revised down by 79,000. At Jackson Hole, Waller directly took a hawkish stance— the 2% inflation target is "unwavering," and until inflation clearly falls, "there's still work to be done." Inflation is still hovering around 3.3%, far from 2%, and Waller's hawkish position is backed by the data. The cooling speed isn't fast enough, and the Fed's "reaction function" has already shifted toward hawkishness.
What are the expectations for Friday's non-farm payrolls? Reuters surveys expect an increase of 58,000, unemployment rate at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings up 0.3% month-over-month. ADP expects about 47,000, and initial jobless claims remain low, just above 200,000. Regardless of the final numbers, the market is watching not the absolute values but the deviation from expectations. If it beats expectations, the probability of a rate hike will push higher, and Bitcoin might drop another notch; if it falls short, the rate hike probability cools down, and Bitcoin has a chance to bounce back near 80,000.
Pharaoh's one piece of advice: don't bet on direction Friday night. Let the algorithms finish stop-losses after the data comes out, then act once interest rates, the dollar, and Bitcoin align. However, I expect the non-farm data will most likely first dip down then spike up! $ETH $BTC $SOL #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #BTC's Leverage Faith, ETH's Perpetual Machine
On the same day, Strategy and BitMine pulled the trigger simultaneously. Different targets, different chips, and fundamentally different underlying logic.
$BTC Strategy re-entered after ten weeks of silence, fueled by MSTR's stock market issuance—selling stocks to buy BTC, cycling repeatedly. This model has no secrets: when BTC rises, the company's market value expands, financing ability strengthens, and more BTC is bought; when BTC falls, the other side of leverage reveals itself. Strategy bets on BTC's ultimate narrative—so long as the asset appreciates long-term, temporary unrealized losses and equity dilution are bearable costs.
$ETH BitMine takes a different path. Holding 5.9 million ETH, it has been buying continuously for 65 weeks without interruption. These ETH are not reserves gathering dust but are invested in the Ethereum network's ongoing ecosystem—staking, validating, earning rewards, with stable annualized returns and over $300 million in cash flow automatically received each year.
One is a leverage-driven price gamble; the other is a network-effect cash flow business. The former requires BTC to keep hitting new highs to cover financing costs; the latter only needs ETH's network to keep producing blocks to earn passive income.
Neither model is right or wrong, but their understanding of the word "asset" is completely different. One treats BTC as the ultimate store of value, holding statically and waiting for time to realize value; the other treats ETH as productive capital, dynamically operating and continuously extracting network dividends. $UNI has broken through 6! I've gone all in building my position.
It's definitely the strongest in the DeFi sector this round.
Catalyst: Uniswap has captured 99% of the liquidity in tokenized stock trading on Robinhood Chain, with daily trading volume exceeding $130 million. After the fee mechanism activation, about $160 million is burned annually. On a single day at the end of August, application revenue reached $327,000 — the narrative has upgraded from "pure governance token" to "real money maker." 🔥UNI surged nearly 15% in a single day, piercing $6, hitting an eight-month high! But is this a “rocket” or a “powder keg”?
Robinhood Chain locked up $734 million, Uniswap raked in $9.24 million in fees on this chain within 24 hours, combined with the UNIfication burn mechanism that directly burns protocol fees into UNI deflation—the fundamental story is truly explosive! Futures open interest soared to $500 million, a new high since last November, with institutions and whales betting on both spot and derivatives.
But $6 is definitely not a sweet spot to chase longs; it’s the dividing line between a short squeeze and a long squeeze!
• BTC fell below 78,400 on the same day, the market is bleeding, UNI is a lone fighter against the trend;
• $6.0 is a previous dense trading resistance and breakout level, unusually active fees in a single instance cannot be linearly extrapolated;
• Robinhood Chain accounts for nearly 40% of Uniswap’s fees, dependence on a single partner is a hidden bomb;
• Even Standard Chartered warns that “4% annualized burn is unsustainable.”
Scenario: Daily candle closes steadily above $6.0 → valuation repair opens, challenging $10; if BTC falls below 75,000 dragging UNI down → $5.5 is the first support, $4.8–$5.0 is the low-leverage trial zone. Chasing above $6 = licking the blade, scaling in on pullbacks to $4.8–$5.5 is the hunter’s move.⚠️I've been telling you to stay out and wait for the signal these past two weeks. Today, I'll make it clear: the signal has arrived. Global central banks are hawkish in unison, interest rates have hit new highs for the year, and oil prices have risen three times in a row, reigniting inflation expectations—the gravitational pull on risk assets is getting heavier.#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds The market cap is $2.63T with a single-day drop of -3.83%. The top gainers are all from "new asset issuance sectors": prediction markets, on-chain US stocks, launchpads, meme ecosystems, DeFi indexes, all pointing to the same narrative: new native on-chain gameplay rather than old blue chips. Where is the money coming from? USDT market cap changed by -0.01% in 24h, with almost no new issuance and no new money entering; BTC dominance is 59.1%, with funds moving within the existing pool, shifting from mainstream to small-cap hotspots. Except for the $6.76B DeFi index, other sectors have market caps under $0.4B, allowing small amounts of money to push double-digit gains. This is rotation within existing liquidity under thin liquidity conditions, while $BTC itself is still falling. Judgment: rotation within existing funds, with a weak sustainability. Fear & Greed index is 63, down from 65 a week ago, sentiment hasn't caught up with the leaderboard. End signal: USDT continues no new issuance, BTC dominance stands back above 59.1%, Fear & Greed falls below 63. When all three appear together, the rotation is over. Data divergence before the non-farm payrolls combined with geopolitical conflicts is putting overall pressure on the crypto market.
As the "weathervane" of the crypto market, $BTC's impact mainly depends on whether the non-farm data strengthens rate hike expectations.
The probability of a rate hike in September has risen above 65%. If the non-farm payrolls exceed expectations (>100,000), BTC may dip to 75K-76K or even 73.5K;
if the data is significantly below expectations, it could trigger a rebound test at 80K. The current price has already fallen from 81K to around 77K, with hawkish expectations partially priced in advance.
$ETH is more obviously dragged down by macro factors, recently falling about 2.66%-2.94% along with the broader market.
As a leading altcoin with higher risk appetite, if the non-farm data is hawkish and rate hike expectations heat up, $ETH's decline usually exceeds that of Bitcoin. If the data unexpectedly leans dovish, its rebound elasticity is also stronger than BTC.
However, the main current pressures come from the US-Iran conflict pushing up oil prices, intensifying inflation concerns, and rising Treasury yields suppressing non-yielding assets.
$SOL is the most sensitive to macro data, with a decline rate far exceeding BTC and ETH. Due to lacking safe-haven attributes and liquidity highly dependent on retail speculation, if the non-farm data shows strong employment and rising rate hike probability, $SOL faces larger-scale sell-offs. The current price has dropped to about $99, with a single-day decline exceeding 4% at one point. Additionally, internal structural pressures such as token unlocks and leveraged long liquidations also amplify macro shocks.UNI is currently priced at $5.8–6.0 (touched 6.01 intraday on 9/2, an eight-month high), making it one of the few strong altcoins running an independent trend amid this weak market cycle.
Core Drivers (Bullish)
• Robinhood Chain Explosion: Uniswap serves as the default AMM, with on-chain TVL at $734 million, daily fees of $9.24 million, accounting for the majority of protocol fees; tokenized stocks + RWA traffic directly feed the v4 pools.
• UNIfication Fee Burn Confirmed: Fee activation scheduled for 12/2025, with a cumulative burn of about 5 million UNI plus a one-time 10 million burn, circulating supply at 895 million, annualized burn rate close to 1%, transforming from a "pure governance token" to a "dividend-like burn asset."
• v4 Hooks + Permissioned Pools: Capturing institutional compliant pools and RWA scenarios, TVL and fee base firmly hold the top spot among DEXs.
Pressures and Risks (Bearish)
• Short-term RSI at 79–85 is overbought, 24h up 12–15%, weekly up over 30%, futures open interest surged to $500 million, crowded leverage, 6.0 is a dense trading resistance level, prone to sharp pullbacks after spikes.
• Absolute burn amount is still relatively small compared to the 63 billion circulating supply, value capture does not immediately fill valuation; Robinhood Chain accounts for nearly 40% of fee sources, dependence on a single partner is a hidden risk.#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
As the crucial non-farm payroll data release approaches, recent U.S. employment-related data have shown divergence, with market bets on a September rate hike continuing to rise. This has become the core macro variable suppressing the crypto market currently.
Some leading employment indicators are relatively strong, indicating labor market resilience. Coupled with earlier hawkish remarks from Waller, the trading market keeps raising the probability of a September rate hike; however, another set of data signals cooling, showing clear divergence in views on the Fed's future path.
The upcoming non-farm payroll report is the most important reference before the FOMC meeting.
✅ If employment data exceed expectations: rate hike expectations will further ferment, risk assets like BTC and ETH will come under pressure, and market volatility will be amplified.
✅ If employment data significantly weaken: it will offset hawkish policy rhetoric, rate hike expectations will fall, giving crypto assets a breather.
Currently, the market itself is repeatedly tugging at a high range, and with macro events approaching, volatility will quickly increase. Spikes and two-way stop-loss sweeps will become the norm.
Do not heavily bet on the data outcome in advance. Continue to patiently hold your favored spot assets and observe; for contracts, be sure to reduce positions, avoid gambling on one-sided moves, and wait for the market to form a clear structure before making the next decision.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强 BTC & ETH ARE COOLING OFF, NOT COLLAPSING
$BTC and $ETH are under pressure as the market turns defensive. Rising U.S. Treasury yields, higher oil prices, and growing expectations of a September Fed rate hike are weakening risk appetite.
Profit-taking after the late-August rally is adding pressure. $BTC is around $77K, while $ETH trades near $2.4K. However, ETF flows remain supportive, suggesting this may be a period of correction and repricing rather than a full market collapse. On September 9, the U.S. stock market began repurchasing Treasury bonds, raising the single repurchase limit from $2 billion to $4 billion, effective until November 4.
Currently, the recent 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.79%–4.81%, and the 30-year yield is around 5.27%–5.28%, close to or back to pre-announcement levels.
This scale is still small compared to the entire Treasury market (over $40 trillion) and the quarterly long-term new issuance scale. The original plan was a long-term repurchase limit of about $14 billion from September 9 to November 4; after doubling, an additional approximately $14 billion is added.
The increased repurchase on September 9 provides marginal support and liquidity improvement for long-term U.S. Treasuries. In the short term, it may ease upward pressure on yields and benefit risk assets and gold, but personally, I think its effect on the current market is limited.
At times like this, it's important to stay calm. The rise in crude oil, the decline in U.S. stocks, gold, and crypto does not mean capital is fleeing but rather choosing a more prudent approach and hedging. In the crypto space, we can see various altcoins with high volatility simultaneously driving the ecosystem upward.
Therefore, I think shorting is fine but should be short-term. Trying to capture a drop of several thousand or even tens of thousands of dollars in one go is very difficult in the current market. The back-and-forth shakeouts will definitely push you out.US August ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6 from 55.6 in July, still above 50. July JOLTS openings were 7.27M, below the 7.31M consensus but up from June's revised 7.18M. The data are mixed: factory momentum slowed, but labor demand has not collapsed. CME pricing puts the chance of a 25bp September hike near 66%-66.9%. August payrolls arrive Sep 4 at 12:30 UTC. For BTC and equities, the key is whether the report reprices the dollar, Treasury yields and risk appetite.
#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds #Two Treasury Philosophies of BTC and ETH
On the same day, two completely different logics played out simultaneously in the crypto market.
Strategy ended a ten-week wait, purchasing 4,603 BTC at an average price of $80,318, bringing total holdings to 845,050 BTC, valued at approximately $63.7 billion. The funding source remains the market price issuance of MSTR stock—4.53 million shares sold within a week, recording a net income of $602.8 million, with precise funding. $BTC
The core difference between the two models lies in: interest-bearing vs. non-interest-bearing.
$ETH Strategy holds 845,000 BTC, currently trading at about a 31% premium over net asset value. The number of circulating shares has increased 250% since the large-scale coin purchase, with annual preferred stock dividend payments of about $1.5 billion, while the company’s cash reserves are only about $1 billion.
$BTC BitMine is completely different. It stakes about 86% of its ETH holdings through its self-built validator node network MAVAN. This means BitMine still has a continuous income source to support its weekly buying strategy.
Strategy bets on BTC’s ultimate pricing power—BitMine bets on ETH’s network effect and interest-bearing capability—it’s like a digital power plant, holding 4.9% of the total network supply and continuously “generating electricity” to produce income.
Two models, neither right nor wrong, but completely different risk exposures. One requires the price to always go up, the other only needs the network to keep running BTC and ETH are cooling off, not crashing
As the market shifts to defense, $BTC and $ETH face pressure. Rising U.S. Treasury yields, higher oil prices, and increased expectations of a Fed rate hike in September are weakening risk appetite.
Profit-taking after the late August rebound has also added pressure. $BTC is around $77K, and $ETH is trading near $2.4K. However, ETF fund flows still support the market, indicating this may be a phase of correction and repricing rather than a full market crash. After entering September, the macro environment of the Crypto market has clearly become more complex. Geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, crude oil prices have risen again, and U.S. Treasury yields have also shown a significant upward trend. Market expectations for a policy shift by the Federal Reserve in September are rapidly changing. Currently, market pricing indicates about a 63% probability of policy tightening in September, which undoubtedly puts pressure on BTC and the entire risk asset market. However, liquidity has not completely weakened. The latest data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF still recorded a net inflow of approximately $12.6M, indicating that institutional funds still maintain a certain allocation demand. Meanwhile, the Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of about $9.1M. The divergence in BTC and ETH ETF capital flows also suggests that the current market is not simply bearish across the board but is more like a reallocation of assets. What truly deserves attention next is whether macro data can change the market's judgment on Federal Reserve policy: 📌 Employment data: NFP will directly affect expectations for rate cuts or hikes in September 📌 Inflation data: Determines whether the Federal Reserve has room to continue tightening policy 📌 U.S. Treasury yields: High yields may continue to suppress valuations of high-risk assets 📌 BTC ETF capital flows: Whether institutions continue to buy will be an important signal In the short term, the direction of Crypto may not be determined solely by technical factors. If employment and inflation data continue to be strong, market expectations for Federal Reserve policy may further $CRV is worth keeping an eye on as this bull market gets heated..
as it’s obvious that the stablecoin market will keep getting more crowded, and every new stablecoin needs deep liquidity before people can actually use it..
so on Curve, projects compete for gauge votes to direct CRV incentives toward their pools.
$BTC
so more stablecoins should mean more competition for votes and more CRV being locked.
$ETH
then there is crvUSD and Llamalend capturing the borrowing side too.
$SOL $CORE — Reading the Warning Signs
Losing an earn listing rarely happens alone; it usually sits early in a longer wind-down before trading eventually stops. CORE already shows deeper damage: down 99.5% from its all-time high, a bridge exploit dented trust, and sentiment sits in extreme fear. The team now leans on buybacks instead of rewards to steady things. Not predicting the ending — just watching whether support actually holds.
#NFPTestsSeptHikeOdds #RobinhoodChainRWAvsMemes
$BTC $ETH #Robinhood Chain on-chain volume surges, Meme coin stocks spark controversy Family, Robinhood Chain's recent data is shockingly strong.
On August 28, the single-day DEX trading volume approached 989 million, and on September 2, it directly hit 1.28 billion, setting a new stage high. In terms of trading structure, Meme coin stocks related to Long.xyz remain active, with tokens like AI and MOO driving discussions. Trading heat has spread from tokenized stocks to more volatile Meme assets.
At the same time, Robinhood Wallet and Fomo support direct purchase of Meme coins via Apple Pay, Google Pay, and credit cards. This operation has triggered compliance controversies—some transactions are classified as digital goods media, not cryptocurrency purchases. The gray area of compliance inevitably leads to disputes.
The current question is whether Robinhood Chain's volume surge is expanding the real demand for tokenized stocks and RWA, or mainly amplified by Meme coin stocks and payment gateways? If it's the former, this trend has sustainability and reflects genuine demand for crypto financial infrastructure. If it's the latter, the hype may fade after a while.
Family, Robinhood Chain's data is indeed impressive, but whether the fundamentals can keep up with the hype depends on whether the trading structure changes in the coming weeks. Wishing everyone smooth trading. $BTC $ARB $ZEC 3. Who is buying, who is selling? Data doesn't lie
The most divided picture has arrived.
In less than 60 days, large holding addresses have cumulatively accumulated 46,420 BTC; just in the past seven days, whales have swept up another 39,000.
On the other hand, retail investors holding 0.1-1 BTC have a cumulative trend score as low as -0.982, almost selling out completely.
Whales are buying, retail investors are surrendering.
This is not a sign of a strengthening market. A more reasonable explanation is that the price is being pushed up to wash out latecomers and weak conviction floating coins. What you think is a bull market may actually be a position reallocation designed by the whales.
The spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of $202 million on Friday, ending nine consecutive days of inflows. The attitude of institutions is already written on the market.
$ETH $BTC $SOL #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 #Robinhood链上放量，币股Meme引争议 #财报观察员：戴尔业绩超预期，博通雪花接棒